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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm

4
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Speaker 1: looking for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of

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Speaker 1: the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of fine good buddy, And

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picture them. Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: Again.

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Speaker 3: The wall, it's left.

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Speaker 1: Too, the wide eyed drill pibus, how old Earth big happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergul, the soccer betting

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Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael liebuff

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Speaker 3: I am the host today, joining me as always my

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Speaker 3: friend and colleagues Anthony de Bundo and bj Cunningham and gentlemen.

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Speaker 3: We're in a little bit of a role, but we

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Speaker 3: won't rest on our laurels because we got to get

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Speaker 3: into a six match Premier League slate coming to us

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Speaker 3: in the midweekend. Five out of the six matches have

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Speaker 3: a lot of jeopardy to them, and the other one

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Speaker 3: the outlier. You know, there's still some stuff to get

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Speaker 3: into but we'll start at the top with the headliner

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Speaker 3: for the week. You can argue it's also the first

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Speaker 3: game coming up Tuesday three pm. It's Liverpool and Manchester

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Speaker 3: United to old rivals meeting at Anfield, with Liverpool sitting

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Speaker 3: at minus two fifty five, their prohibitive favorites against United

30
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Speaker 3: at a big price seven to one. The draw here

31
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Speaker 3: is four to one. We've seen a lot of Liverpool

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Speaker 3: over the past few weeks. They've played Manchester City twice,

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Speaker 3: once in the Premier League, once in the FA Cup.

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Speaker 3: They just want a two leg tie over Benfica in

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Speaker 3: the Champions leaguequarter finals again into the semi finals, and

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Speaker 3: of course they're playing other Premier League games, so this

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Speaker 3: does seem like an interesting spot to take them on

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Speaker 3: and there will be a little bit of discussion here.

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Speaker 3: But before we get into that, Anthony, you see this

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Speaker 3: game having some chaos written all over it.

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Speaker 2: I do, yeah. I mean, look, I think we've been

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Speaker 2: kind of blessed this year as a group, because you know,

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Speaker 2: historically the Big Six matches sometimes don't live up to

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Speaker 2: the hype. But I mean, think about some of the

45
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Speaker 2: matches we've gotten this year across the Big Six and

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Speaker 2: how many goals they've had. This is from the Athletics

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Speaker 2: Football podcast Tactical Football Podcast. Three point nine goals per

48
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Speaker 2: match man United has had in its games against other

49
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Speaker 2: Top six opponents Liverpool three point two. So it's just

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Speaker 2: been a lot of back and forth in these big games.

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Speaker 2: A lot of it is because United's defense has been

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Speaker 2: really bad. A lot of it has been because Liverpool

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Speaker 2: plays this high octane approach that's high risk. They can

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Speaker 2: see chances high line. So I'm excited for this, yeah.

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Speaker 3: And I think just from a betting perspective, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to be And we touched on this in the last podcast,

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Speaker 3: like sell all day on Manchester United against Norich City,

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Speaker 3: come back seventy sorry won that, yeah, exactly, come back

59
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Speaker 3: seventy two hours later and then buy on them. So

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Speaker 3: you go on selling them against the worst team in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League, and they're going to buy on them

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Speaker 3: against a team that's chasing the title. And it comes

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Speaker 3: down to just the spot and plus some defensive regression

64
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Speaker 3: coming for Liverpool. They played Manchester City twice in a week,

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Speaker 3: they played two Champions League legs in sandwiching those games

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Speaker 3: and now they have to play Manchester United, and then

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Speaker 3: they have a Merseyside Derby on the other side of

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Speaker 3: the United game, and then back into the Champions League.

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Speaker 3: At some point this team it's going to catch up

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Speaker 3: to them in the Premier League. They're ten one to

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Speaker 3: oh win draw loss in their last eleven twenty seven

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Speaker 3: goals for, four goals allowed.

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Speaker 4: Impressively, very impressively.

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Speaker 3: Those twenty seven goals for basically match up evenly to

75
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Speaker 3: their expectacles for but their defensive record, they're running hot.

76
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Speaker 3: They're running hot by five goals according to expected goles

77
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Speaker 3: nine point one to two expected goals against in their

78
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Speaker 3: last eleven Premier League matches and only.

79
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Speaker 4: Four goals actually allowed.

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Speaker 3: Plus I mean, this isn't a walkover offense. For all

81
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Speaker 3: of United's flaws, most of them are defensively and in

82
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Speaker 3: the midfield and stopping opposing teams. They are creating chances

83
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Speaker 3: one point seventy three expected goals per ninety and they're

84
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Speaker 3: last thirteen matches. They're fifth United is in terms of

85
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Speaker 3: creating non penalty expected goals for ninety and six and

86
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Speaker 3: big chances for ninety over the course of the season.

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Speaker 3: And they'll be up for this game. I think that's

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Speaker 3: an important thing to note like this, This is this

89
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Speaker 3: is an eviden at Goodison Park where they're gonna have

90
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Speaker 3: to deal with a team fighting relegation, or Norwich City

91
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Speaker 3: where they're gonna have to deal with, you know, a

92
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Speaker 3: pest pesky team, and it's just they can walk, you know,

93
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Speaker 3: just Christiano Ronald and Bruno Fernandis.

94
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Speaker 4: Are they gonna get up for nord City?

95
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Speaker 3: No, Liverpool is a different story, and this number is

96
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Speaker 3: just it's way too good to pass up. So I'm

97
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Speaker 3: gonna take it United seven to one on the money line, BJA.

98
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Speaker 3: I feel like you and I rarely find ourselves and disagree,

99
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Speaker 3: but we are here.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 1: I mean when it comes to Manchester United, I have

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Speaker 1: just been so anti them all season long, and I

103
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Speaker 1: honestly think this is another perfect spot to fade them.

104
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Speaker 1: I mean, what really has changed from ol Gonnisoulshar to

105
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Speaker 1: Ralph Ragnick against big sides for Manchester United. Nothing. The

106
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Speaker 1: last the biggest match we've seen them in the Premier

107
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Speaker 1: League under Ragnick was against City and City just absolutely

108
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Speaker 1: throttled them. So I'm not buying Manchester United against anybody

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Speaker 1: who's even somewhat decent especially on the level of Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: So against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool this season, Manchester

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Speaker 1: United has been outscored twelve to two and by Expectacles

112
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Speaker 1: eleven point three to three point three. So they haven't

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Speaker 1: been competitive really whatsoever. They've every single match they've fallen

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Speaker 1: into the exact same trap where they have to sit

115
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Speaker 1: incredibly deep, they don't provide much pressure and just hope

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Speaker 1: that they can get a counter attacking opportunity for Ronaldo

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Speaker 1: and Sancho. And guess what it worked against Chelsea. They

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Speaker 1: got a draw. That's exactly how they played, and they

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Speaker 1: got really lucky and they got we were able to

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Speaker 1: get a breakaway and they scored and they drew one. One.

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Speaker 1: The one way you have to beat Liverpool and what

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Speaker 1: we've seen early on this season, and a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams haven't been able to do it, is you have

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Speaker 1: to press them back when they come with their high press,

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Speaker 1: and United really hasn't been able to do that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you go back through those matches, they've gotten smothered

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Speaker 1: by everybody's high press from Liverpool, Chelsea and man City.

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Speaker 1: The highest amount of possession they've held in any of

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Speaker 1: those matches is thirty seven percent, which was against Liverpool

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Speaker 1: when they got drilled five to nothing earlier this season.

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Speaker 1: I mean even this past weekend. To go up to

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Speaker 1: nothing against Norwich and allow the worst team in the

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Speaker 1: Premier League to just come back and level things up

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Speaker 1: at home and have Rinaldo have to save you with

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Speaker 1: a free kick like that is quite embarrassing. I mean

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Speaker 1: expected goals was two point one to one point nine

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Speaker 1: in favor of United, and now they're supposed to go

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Speaker 1: to anfield and be competitive. I do not see that whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Liverpool's won ten straight matches at home in the Premier

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Speaker 1: League and they have a plus twenty four point three

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Speaker 1: expected goal differential in those matches. I understand the spot

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool. I understand their sixth match in seventeen days

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Speaker 1: and maybe it is not the best situation, but for

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Speaker 1: what I've seen from United against these bigger sides, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't give me any really hope for them to be competitive.

146
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Speaker 1: I mean, even Dehea is standing on his head this season.

147
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Speaker 1: He does a plus nine point six post shot XG

148
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Speaker 1: plus minus that I believe is the best in the

149
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Speaker 1: Premier League over jalse Saw. Now, so if Dehea wasn't

150
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Speaker 1: there and they just had an average goalkeeper. United would

151
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Speaker 1: be allowing one point sixty seven expected goals per match.

152
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Speaker 1: That would be seventeenth in the Premier League. That's how

153
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Speaker 1: much Dehea has saved them and how bad they've been defensively.

154
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Speaker 1: So I think this is going to be Liverpool in

155
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Speaker 1: an absolute route so and even from a projection standpoint,

156
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Speaker 1: I have Liverpool at minus one point eight on the spread,

157
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Speaker 1: so at minus one and a half at plus one fifteen,

158
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Speaker 1: I mean this is going to be a hammer time

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Speaker 1: for me for Liverpool. I really just don't see how

160
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Speaker 1: United it's even going to be competitive with this team

161
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Speaker 1: at anfield, given what we've seen from them against bigger

162
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Speaker 1: sides this year.

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Speaker 4: I think it's one or the other.

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Speaker 3: Eight You're either getting back Liverpool to win by multiple

165
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Speaker 3: multiple goals, or are you going to back United to

166
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Speaker 3: pull the upset, because it's it's hard to imagine anything

167
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Speaker 3: else happening here. It's either United shows up and they

168
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Speaker 3: get lucky and the Liverpool's defensive regression finally catches up

169
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Speaker 3: to them, or find nothing to the Reds here at home.

170
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Speaker 3: It's really hard to imagine many any other outcomes here.

171
00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:08,760
Speaker 4: Like it's want to be a tight one Zil win

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Speaker 4: to Liverpool right.

173
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Speaker 1: One thing I'll say about Liverpool as well is we're

174
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Speaker 1: at the point of the season where, yes, they've played

175
00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:15,559
Speaker 1: a ton of matches, but they're in a rare spot

176
00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:18,080
Speaker 1: where most of their team is pretty much healthy, so

177
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Speaker 1: they've been able to rotate guys through a lot of

178
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Speaker 1: these different matches, so they'll be able to bring out

179
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Speaker 1: a somewhat fresh squad to play United. You know, it's

180
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Speaker 1: not like the Liverpool we saw in the middle of

181
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Speaker 1: the season that had all of their midfielders hurt and

182
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Speaker 1: they really couldn't rotate. They are rota defenders, attack midfielders, attackers.

183
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,640
Speaker 1: They are about as healthy as they've been under clop

184
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,040
Speaker 1: and about i'd say since they've won the Premier League

185
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Speaker 1: back in twenty nineteen twenty seasons. So I understand the

186
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Speaker 1: spot that Liverpool's played a ton of matches, but they've

187
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Speaker 1: also been able to rotate guys. I don't think you're

188
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Speaker 1: going to see them incredibly gassed on Tuesday.

189
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Speaker 2: Yeah. I like both teams to score here. It's minus

190
00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 2: one thirty one. Twenty five's are out there. You shop around,

191
00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,920
Speaker 2: try to find the best number as always United did

192
00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,800
Speaker 2: produced one and a half expected goal and twelve shots

193
00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:02,559
Speaker 2: in the first match like that. People don't talk about

194
00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 2: that because Liverpool embarrassed them defensively so easily, but they

195
00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,840
Speaker 2: were also vulnerable on the counter, and that was including

196
00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:11,440
Speaker 2: the fact that Paul got sent off in the sixtieth minute,

197
00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,760
Speaker 2: so they played thirty minutes down a man. Still got

198
00:09:13,800 --> 00:09:16,360
Speaker 2: twelve shots, still got one and a half expected goals.

199
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,000
Speaker 2: I have United at point nine to four goals in

200
00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,680
Speaker 2: this match, so they scored pretty pretty more often than not,

201
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:26,040
Speaker 2: sixty two percent to score and that correlates to like

202
00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:29,680
Speaker 2: minus one fifty, so you're getting a minus one thirty

203
00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:31,920
Speaker 2: ish number. And I know, like Liverpool might not score,

204
00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,120
Speaker 2: but does anybody really think that's gonna happen. So no,

205
00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:37,760
Speaker 2: mcdominey probably might be a good thing for United. I

206
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 2: kind of think that like Sancho and Pogba as wide

207
00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,400
Speaker 2: outlets to then kind of like spring Rashford and Ronaldo

208
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,920
Speaker 2: forward or Elana whoever they end up playing, kind of

209
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,560
Speaker 2: works better than trying to grind out Liverpool in the midfield.

210
00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,560
Speaker 2: She's not gonna be able to do, so I think

211
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,120
Speaker 2: this is going to have back and forth action don't.

212
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:57,319
Speaker 2: I don't want to play United at minus one thirty

213
00:09:57,360 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. I think it just kind

214
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,960
Speaker 2: of like I don't show any value in it. One two.

215
00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:04,960
Speaker 2: You know, this has the potential to get out of

216
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:09,480
Speaker 2: hand because United, there's motivation questions. I understand this is Liverpool,

217
00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,160
Speaker 2: but if it starts poorly, they could get out of hand.

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Speaker 2: And so that's the scary part for me with backing

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Speaker 2: a spread, which why I'm backing the both teams to

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Speaker 2: score because I do think we saw this against the

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Speaker 2: City and City match hunder Ragnik. They were very able

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Speaker 2: to break through in the same areas that I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be very able to break through this Liverpool team,

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Speaker 2: in behind Alexander Arnold, in behind Robertson. That's what Liverpool's week.

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Speaker 2: Iss City exploited it. Benfica really exploited it with the

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Speaker 2: backups in. I think the United's gonna do the same thing. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: this defense is so bad, and you mentioned it with

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Speaker 2: de Haya. I mean, for the last couple of years,

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Speaker 2: Heya was average, but they were getting lucky that teams

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Speaker 2: were shooting poorly against them. You look at United's post

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Speaker 2: shot numbers, teams have shot well against United and they've

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Speaker 2: gotten bailed out by Dehea. So you know there is

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Speaker 2: a world where if had an average shot stopping season,

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Speaker 2: it would be even worse for this United team.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a fun one Tuesday, three p to

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Speaker 3: get the week started, and it only gets better from there.

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Speaker 3: We'll start the Wednesday portion of the program with DJ's Arsenal.

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Speaker 3: They're plus three ten traveling across London to take on

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Speaker 3: Chelsea minus one ten. The draw here is plus two

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Speaker 3: sixty three losses in a row for Arsenal, four losses

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Speaker 3: in their last five for Arsenal, and then in their

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Speaker 3: last five they're one zero four when draw, loss two

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Speaker 3: goals for, eight goals against. But their expectacles numbers are

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Speaker 3: not that bad six point four expectacles four, four point

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Speaker 3: six against. Then, Anthony, this has been a line of

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Speaker 3: yours this entire season. Is when Arsenal hits rock bottom,

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Speaker 3: that's when I wanted to try to jump back in

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Speaker 3: on them. But they're going up against the Chelsea team

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Speaker 3: that looks like they're trending in the right direction as well.

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Speaker 3: So how are you playing this one?

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Speaker 2: I have not made a bet yet. I want to

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Speaker 2: wait and kind of get closer and we learn more

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Speaker 2: about this Arsenal injury situation. We saw as much as

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Speaker 2: I'm not an Alexander Lockaze that guy because he's kind

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Speaker 2: of like just not the player he was. He doesn't

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Speaker 2: get enough to really sustain like a top four attack,

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Speaker 2: top six attack. Even really his absence was pretty noted

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Speaker 2: on Saturday. I mean, they had point seven expected goals.

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Speaker 2: I think for the majority of that match. They did

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Speaker 2: pat pack on some late, but they really struggled to

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Speaker 2: create chances and have somebody to get on the end

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Speaker 2: of those chances when they were able to break through

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Speaker 2: Southampton's press. And this is from Ryan o'hanlin. They don't

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Speaker 2: have a single player in the top one hundred of

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Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals plus expected to says per ninety minutes.

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Speaker 2: And that's really the crux of the Arsenal aggression. It

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Speaker 2: was that, like they have a lot of these okay

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Speaker 2: to good players, they don't have any stars in attack

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Speaker 2: who are going to be able to carry them through

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Speaker 2: the periods when things aren't quite clicking. And I don't

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Speaker 2: want to get dramatic about how bad Arsenal have been,

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Speaker 2: because they really haven't been that bad. I mean, they've

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Speaker 2: been worse, but they haven't been bad. I know they've

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Speaker 2: lost four out of five, but they've created four and

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Speaker 2: a half expected goals and only scored one in the

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Speaker 2: last three matches. And they only have two goals in

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Speaker 2: the last five matches off of six and a half

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Speaker 2: expected So you look at like they're passing numbers, which

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Speaker 2: is always a good indicator for Arsenal, Like are they

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Speaker 2: getting disrupted? They've been over eighty percent every match but

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Speaker 2: one in the last eight. So like it wasn't that

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Speaker 2: like Brighton really took the ball off them, off in

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Speaker 2: or Liverpool even like pressed pressed the hell out of them,

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Speaker 2: and like they couldn't cope. It's just that their attack

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Speaker 2: regressed and now they go up against Chelsea, who I

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Speaker 2: think has found some interesting things with Werner. I think

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Speaker 2: that their attack has taken elite since Timo has been

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Speaker 2: in the full. They looked really good today against Palace,

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Speaker 2: especially second half, and his ability to kind of get

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Speaker 2: in behind has added an element to this attack that

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Speaker 2: has been missing all year. It took them forever to

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Speaker 2: get the ball up the field. They're just not they

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Speaker 2: don't have enough, you know, enough shots, enough threat to

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Speaker 2: really take teams away and to really open teams up,

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Speaker 2: whereas it was a lot of just we're going to

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Speaker 2: grind our way to these results. I think Verner has helped,

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Speaker 2: even if he still will never be a good finisher. Evidently,

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Speaker 2: so I have not played dismatch. I will have a

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Speaker 2: will pree you up on Tuesday. I want to wait

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Speaker 2: on the injury news, Unlacazette, and I'm going to wait

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Speaker 2: and kind of see what the market settles at before

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Speaker 2: I play this.

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Speaker 3: I think it's it's Arsenal for me here or nothing.

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Speaker 3: It's just it's in a similar vein to Liverpool. Chelsea

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Speaker 3: has been playing a ton of soccer across a ton

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Speaker 3: of different competitions. Now they come, I mean they're home here,

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Speaker 3: but they're coming back home to host a team that

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Speaker 3: will be fighting for their top four chances.

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Speaker 4: It's it's I mean, it's it is.

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Speaker 3: A must win, I guess in some respect for for Arsenal,

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Speaker 3: keep those hopes alive. And like you you've said on

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Speaker 3: the show along like this is this is the time

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Speaker 3: you want to get in on Arsenal. It's just we'll

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Speaker 3: have to see what the lineup issues. Come the lineup news,

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Speaker 3: how it shakes out.

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Speaker 4: BJ.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to see the floor to you because you

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Speaker 3: are how resident Arsenal tragic, but you're also someone who's

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Speaker 3: probably going to betting against them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. So I'm trying to like describe how I'm feeling

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Speaker 1: right now, and the only thing that comes to mind

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Speaker 1: is I feel like Matt Damon and The Departed when

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Speaker 1: he's in the elevator with Leonardo DiCaprio behind him, He's saying,

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Speaker 1: just kill me, like, just please kill me. Like this

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Speaker 1: is how I feel right now with Arsenal. And this

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Speaker 1: price is honestly really cheap for Chelsea. I mean, yes,

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Speaker 1: you can say they all have their place wrapped up,

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Speaker 1: but their form has actually been really really good over

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Speaker 1: the last three matches. Six to nothing against Southampton, the

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Speaker 1: three to two win in Madrid against Real, and then

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Speaker 1: they come back and beat a really good Crystal Palace

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Speaker 1: team to nothing in the FA Cup. And I understand

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Speaker 1: that they've lost back to back home matches against Brentford

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Speaker 1: and Real Madrid, but before that they won six straight

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Speaker 1: at Stanford Bridge and they have a plus twelve expected

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Speaker 1: ble to French at home in the Premier League this season,

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Speaker 1: and you know, Anthony mentioned it. The Arsenal results have dipped,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily the form. I mean, yes, they've lost three straight.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned, you know, the expected goal regressions. You could say, yes,

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Speaker 1: they're going to get some positive regression at some point.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really sure this is the spot where it's

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Speaker 1: going to come. I think it's more going to come

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Speaker 1: against United on Saturday because without Party in Tyranny, it's

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Speaker 1: been really really difficult. I mean the conga he's good,

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Speaker 1: he's just not ready to play as a number one

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Speaker 1: starter in the Premier League. He needs to develop more

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Speaker 1: than Tavares. I mean he didn't play. No, nobody really

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Speaker 1: played bad against Southampton on Saturday. I really wasn't disappointed

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Speaker 1: with the performance and I think what it really boils

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Speaker 1: down to is they've just defensively. They just made a

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Speaker 1: few mistakes and people teams have just been capitalizing on it.

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Speaker 1: You saw in the match against Liverpool, Ram still made

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Speaker 1: a mistake and they scored the goal. At the game

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Speaker 1: against Southampton, it was just one defensive mistake where they

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Speaker 1: allowed I can't remember who was to get in behind

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Speaker 1: and give it to the guy who scored the goal.

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Speaker 1: But it's just been a couple of mistakes here, a

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Speaker 1: couple of mistakes there, and teams have just pounced on it.

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Speaker 1: So playing a team like Chelsea that's in this good

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Speaker 1: of form, that's troublesome to me. In the history against Chelsea,

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Speaker 1: it's not that great for our slow. I know they've

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Speaker 1: had some good results against them in the past few years.

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Speaker 1: Before that it was really really bad. But Arteta and

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Speaker 1: Tuccelo have met twice in the Premier League. Arsenal got

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Speaker 1: a shock win against Chelsea last season at the very

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Speaker 1: end when Chelsea that yeah, they completely dominated. So two

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Speaker 1: matches and you know the first match was on the

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Speaker 1: third match week of the year. This year, Chelsea completely

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Speaker 1: throttled Arsenal. Arsenal was dealing with some COVID and some

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Speaker 1: injury issues, so you can put whatever stock you want

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Speaker 1: into that. But Arteta and two chol the two times

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Speaker 1: they've met, five expected goals for Chelsea, two point nine

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Speaker 1: for Arsenal, and Arsenal also has been really poured away

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Speaker 1: from home this season minus three point two expected goal differential.

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Speaker 1: I mean I have Chelsea projected at minus one forty seven,

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Speaker 1: so projection wise, I definitely have some value in the Blues.

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Speaker 1: I've already met them at minus one oh five to

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Speaker 1: grab all three points here. It's just really I mean,

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Speaker 1: Arsenal's positive regresson is going to come at some point,

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Speaker 1: but this is really not the spot running into a

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Speaker 1: Chelsea team that's just been on fire.

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Speaker 2: I think the under is going to be popular. That's

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Speaker 2: just my opinion generally, Like the public will will look

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Speaker 2: toward the under, and and I kind of see the

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Speaker 2: case for it. I mean, you know too, Cole with

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Speaker 2: the way they like to strangle possession, Arsenal with the

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Speaker 2: way like the strangle possession. There's like a meme on

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Speaker 2: Twitter where like the teams are just passing the ball

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Speaker 2: around in their own halves and not like ever progressing

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Speaker 2: the ball up the pitch, and like if Werner wasn't

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Speaker 2: playing and Lacazette was out, like where are the attacks

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Speaker 2: going to score from create chances from? So like I

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Speaker 2: kind of see the case for that, and I do

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Speaker 2: show a tiny bit of value on Chelsea. Last time

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Speaker 2: I showed a tiny bit of value on Chelsea, they

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Speaker 2: lost home to Real Madrid the Champions League and it

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Speaker 2: didn't go well. So I'm not sure we're going that

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Speaker 2: up on this. Also, Tonyasu matters a lot, I think,

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Speaker 2: and you haven't mentioned his name, but he's questionable. Parties out.

400
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 2: Tierney's out, but Tomy Asu is questionable, and I think

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00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 2: his ability to kind of sustain possession and play through

402
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 2: pressure is an underrated part of his skill set and

403
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Speaker 2: one that without him you started to see more the

404
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Speaker 2: defensive mistakes creep in for Arsenal. Also, some of that

405
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Speaker 2: was just they hadn't been punished for their mistakes earlier

406
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Speaker 2: in the season, you know, the last really good round

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Speaker 2: and now theyre kind of are. So there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of interesting angles here, and stay tuned to the Action

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Speaker 2: app where I we'll have a pick on this game.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to another Wednesday kickoff, a

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Speaker 3: big one at Goodison Park, Oh Boy. Everdon plus one

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Speaker 3: forty hosting Leicester City plus two will five. The draw

413
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 3: here is plus two forty. Everdon are now only three

414
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Speaker 3: points ahead of Burnley. They do have a game in

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Speaker 3: hand now that Burnley drew west Ham over the weekend

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Speaker 3: and Everden was off because they were scheduled to play

417
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Speaker 3: Crystal Palace, who were in the f A Cup semi final.

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Speaker 3: It's another situation where I think it's it's not a

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Speaker 3: must win for Everton, much like that Burnley match, but

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Speaker 3: they lost. It's a it's a must not lose. They

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Speaker 3: need to be able to keep their two game advantage

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Speaker 3: over Burnley because the goal differential is tied right now too,

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Speaker 3: so it's not over. That Manchester United win was nice.

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Speaker 3: The ten days off are gonna be nice. But fine,

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Speaker 3: They're right back in their is, right back in the.

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Speaker 1: Fine, right back of the jackpot.

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Speaker 4: I will say though, I like them here.

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Speaker 3: I think plus one forty is a good price to

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Speaker 3: bet against Leicester on the road, right. Sometimes a betty

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Speaker 3: doesn't come down to, hey, I'm betting on this team,

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Speaker 3: I'm betting against team B and that's what I'm doing here.

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Speaker 3: Leicester City, coming off a loss against Newcastle, have allowed

433
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 3: one point nine to six expected goals per match over

434
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:22,359
Speaker 3: the last six matches. Not exactly against Murderer's Row either

435
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: Leeds Palace, Brentford United, Arsenal and Newcastle. So basically a

436
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 3: bunch of teams between seventeenth and sixth or fifth in

437
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 3: the Premier League and they've.

438
00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:35,080
Speaker 4: Gotten results right like.

439
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:37,679
Speaker 3: They've won three out of their last six. The three

440
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 3: one to two Windrow loss in their last six, but

441
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 3: they've lost the expected goals battle in five of those

442
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 3: six and it all comes down to a poor defense.

443
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 3: So Everden should get on the board here, and I'm

444
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 3: going to say something I'm going to regret come Wednesday

445
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 3: at three or five pm Eastern time. I trust their

446
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 3: defense because they're getting yery Mina back and they have

447
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 3: Fabian Delth and Allen right in front of that back.

448
00:20:58,400 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 4: Forth and Delf.

449
00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:03,679
Speaker 3: Those two worked perfectly together against Man United. And for

450
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 3: however long the Fabian Delf Delf is healthy, he's going

451
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:08,880
Speaker 3: to be one of the most important members of the squad,

452
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 3: being the pivot between that back four and the front three.

453
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,399
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take Evertt in here plus one forty

454
00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 3: at home. They've been better at Goodison's Park than they

455
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: have been on the road. That's been a situation all seasons,

456
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:26,879
Speaker 3: not just Lampard. So yeah, not what I'm looking forward to, hear, Anthony,

457
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

458
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 4: Foxes and Toffees.

459
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll go lean Everton. You know, I was first

460
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: kind of surprised by the number, but then I remember

461
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: the Lester's a luckbox, right like this this market doesn't

462
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 2: really respect them much.

463
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 3: And I actually have written down on my notes surprising line,

464
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 3: that's the first thing I have written down.

465
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then I looked into it. I ran my

466
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: own numbers, and like I came out right around where

467
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:53,159
Speaker 2: it was Everton the last since December twelfth, So I

468
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: just kind of randomly was playing around with the sliders

469
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 2: and like bell on that date. So this is not

470
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: like a statistically significant date, but like there's a lot

471
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 2: of it's that they've played since December twelfth, and it's

472
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: a pretty big enough sample that I feel representative about it,

473
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 2: and includes some of course pre Lampard minutes. But Lester,

474
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: we've seen ups and downs with them. Two extreally difference

475
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 2: per ninety Everton minus point seven, Leicester minus point five.

476
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 2: But let's consider the results. Actual goal difference per ninety

477
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: Everton is still minus minus point nine, so they run

478
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: a little cold, but right around the number, Lester has

479
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,479
Speaker 2: a positive goal difference since December twelfth, despite playing at

480
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 2: a half goal worse per match than their opponents. I mean,

481
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 2: that is insane. And they got a little unlucky today,

482
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: I guess, but not really like it was unlucky in

483
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 2: the sense that it was the last kick of the game,

484
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 2: but they didn't deserve that point really unfortunately. But in Newcastle.

485
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 2: We'll talk about them in a minute, but I think

486
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 2: the main reason for why they played better played better

487
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 2: in air quotes is that Schmichael has finally like showed

488
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:53,360
Speaker 2: up this season. He was the bottom three or four

489
00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 2: keeper most of the first half ish of the season

490
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: and their defense was bad and not saving shots. But

491
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 2: he's now back to about average, so he's played really

492
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 2: well the last two months. Save this defense for being honest,

493
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 2: I mean, the defense is not improved, and Everton is

494
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 2: getting healthier.

495
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 4: I think that's a big game.

496
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 2: Mina getting back, Big Bandabak might play too. I mean

497
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 2: the Everton sheet Premier Injuries dot com. We used to

498
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 2: pull it up, you have to like scroll. It was

499
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,359
Speaker 2: like twelve players long. Now it's like three or four.

500
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: Just kind of encouraging. And the only fear here is

501
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 2: the defensive errors from overpressing. We've seen this, Everton's getting

502
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 2: kind of out of position and then west Ham just

503
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 2: kind of like walked in for a goal and Spurs

504
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:37,120
Speaker 2: walked in for like three goals. That's the only fear

505
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 2: with Lester because they're so good at that. Yeah, they're

506
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 2: very good at you know, one ball, Killiman's beats one

507
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 2: guy Madison plays one pass and like Daca's in and

508
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: you're like, well shit, we were dominating the first hour

509
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,640
Speaker 2: and now it's like we're losing. So that's the only

510
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 2: fear for me with these Foxes team is that, like

511
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 2: they can quick strike you and they're still good at that,

512
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 2: Like their attack is still pretty good. Yeah. I I

513
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 2: lean Everton here.

514
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was my fear against United too. But I

515
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 3: think Lampard and he said the right things about it too,

516
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,360
Speaker 3: is it's they've kind of learned their lesson from from

517
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 3: setting up in that way, whereas now it's just you know,

518
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,000
Speaker 3: pull one out of the Sam Allerdyce book and do

519
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 3: whatever you have to do to avoid losing a match.

520
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 1: Uh.

521
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 4: And that's kind of what they did against United.

522
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 3: I mean there were so many times in that game

523
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 3: where uh, Charlis and Anthony Gordon and Dominic Covert.

524
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 4: Lewin pushed forward.

525
00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 3: They had Alex woebe as kind of you know the

526
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 3: fourth man in and then everybody else was was back,

527
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,919
Speaker 3: you know, delft, like they were all back with with

528
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: the back forth. So I'm not as worried about that

529
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:43,760
Speaker 3: as I was going into that that United game. They've

530
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 3: learned their lesson, I'm hoping, uh and yeah, like you said,

531
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 3: getting healthier. They actually have options in the middle of

532
00:24:49,560 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 3: the park now, which is something they haven't had in

533
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 3: months months u so, and and they're not gonna have

534
00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 3: to play players out of position. So yeah, this is

535
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: this is actually it looks like a good spot for everything,

536
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 3: which makes it all the more horrifying. Yeah.

537
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 2: And the thing is, you know, like the Foxes, we

538
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 2: have our little matrix we used. The only green that

539
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: pops up is you know, notable green at least that

540
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 2: I you know, look at is xt P ninety right,

541
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 2: and they're seventh. But again, like we've talked about this

542
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,560
Speaker 2: last week, the progressive numbers like passing thirteenth and their

543
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 2: twentieth and crosses into the box fourteenth in box entries,

544
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 2: like they're not doing the things that lead to these

545
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 2: really good chances that well. And so how long does

546
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 2: that hold up? It wasn't like I went back and

547
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: looked at like last season and two years ago when

548
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: they were like legitimately a top six team and their

549
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 2: progressive numbers were considerably better, like they were sixth, not fourteenth,

550
00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 2: despite maintaining this good attack. So I don't know how

551
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 2: they're doing it, but their attack has remained good despite

552
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 2: numbers that suggests they're not particularly good.

553
00:25:51,760 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Newcastle and Crystal Palace

554
00:25:55,400 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 3: of the sixth matches. Like I said, this is the

555
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: one with the least amount of jeopardy, although uh As

556
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 3: Anthony noted to be pre pod the top ten finish

557
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 3: for both of these sides. Is it would be nice?

558
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 3: Especially Palace. I mean, Patrick Fierra is going to be

559
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 3: up there for for Manager of the Year. He won't

560
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 3: win it because they're where they're going to finish, but.

561
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:14,920
Speaker 1: He's a Newcastle doesn't need the money.

562
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,439
Speaker 2: He's going to get some who's the Who's the manager

563
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 2: of the year?

564
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: Who?

565
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 1: I mean?

566
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 3: I think it'll probably go to whoever wins the title race.

567
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,119
Speaker 2: Right, but you know who your manager of the year being,

568
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 2: I don't know, I don't know the answer. That would

569
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 2: probably my Palace, right, it would be good probably at

570
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 2: the Palace.

571
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 4: I always look at it.

572
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 3: You can kind of look at it from where are

573
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 3: your expectations of Palace relegation? Fight?

574
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 2: Bottom six?

575
00:26:35,800 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 1: Yeah? Anthony. Anthony by the way, I've been waiting to mention.

576
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: I asked Anthony, yes, am I crazy to take Crystal

577
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: Palace over thirty four and a half points, and he

578
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: said yes. At the beginning of the season, and.

579
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 2: I think I think I said Vierira fer first manager

580
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 2: to be fired. I don't think I actually said said that,

581
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 2: but I joked about it. I was not high on him.

582
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 2: I was wrong.

583
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he's he's been fantastic.

584
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: But I just have hated Palace. I mean they they

585
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: they look box their way into this league for like

586
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: three or four years, but now they're like, actually good,

587
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 2: so I got to respect them.

588
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:06,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, Pala Palace bomb me get to the FA Cup

589
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 3: semi final two. So good for Crystal Palace, good for

590
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 3: the fans down there in South London. They're traveling north

591
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 3: though for this one to take on Newcastle at Saint James.

592
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 4: Newcastle's plus one.

593
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: Forty, Palace plus two ten to draw here is plus

594
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 3: two thirty. This is about where that that Leicester line was.

595
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: And I think Palace is a better team than Leicester.

596
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 3: I'll know that, but I don't really have much here

597
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 3: because I think it's a tough spot. For the Eagles

598
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: coming off of that FA Cup semi final match against

599
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 3: Chelsea lose two nil. They played well as well as

600
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 3: they could against a much better team, and Newcastle has

601
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 3: been better defensively lately under one expectacle allowed in the

602
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 3: last two matches against Wolves and Leicester, So maybe some

603
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 3: improvement coming there. So nothing for me here that that

604
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:58,680
Speaker 3: really interests me. BJ Palace, Newcastle anything for you, yeah, So, I.

605
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 1: Mean the more we've talked about this seems like two

606
00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: weeks now where the market has just somewhat overreacted to

607
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 1: Newcastle and I've tried to bet against it and it

608
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: has it worked. They got me in the last kick

609
00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: of the game today, but I mean didn't really deserve

610
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 1: to win that based on XG. But with that being said,

611
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: so these two teams for the season are now tied

612
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 1: thirty seven points, but the gap in terms of x

613
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: G is massive and wildly different. Newcastle minus fifteen point

614
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 1: six expect to go to the French on the season,

615
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace is at plus one point eight. Even if

616
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: we go back and start from the January transferter when

617
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: Newcastle brought in all these new players, Crystal Palace hasn't

618
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 1: even expected to go to the frenchal Newcastle's at plus

619
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 1: one point five, so they just barely been better than

620
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: Palace over that timeframe. But Newcastle's picked up twelve more

621
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: points than them, so that's how much Newcastle has overperformed

622
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: even since the January transferred. The biggest thing for me

623
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: in this matchup is Crystal Palace is pressing. Newcastle In

624
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,680
Speaker 1: their last two matches have faced very poor pressing teams

625
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: in Lester and Wolves, but Crystal Palace presses at the

626
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 1: third highest rate their top half in the Premier League

627
00:29:06,400 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: and pass per defense of action and high turnovers. Newcastle

628
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: nineteenth in offensive passive per defensive action and progressive passes

629
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: and dribbles, so I'd imagine they're going to have a

630
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,719
Speaker 1: much more difficult time trying to play through Palaces pressure.

631
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: On the flip side, Crystal Palace, they tend to struggle

632
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: when teams press them successfully. Well. Newcastle is definitely not

633
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: that team because they are nineteenth in pass per defensive action,

634
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: pressure success rate and high turnovers. And from a market standpoint,

635
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,239
Speaker 1: I said this last week, but if you look at

636
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: other projection sites, I mean five point thirty eight has

637
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace as a slight favorite info goal as this

638
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 1: had basically straight up a pick them.

639
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: I have.

640
00:29:45,840 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 1: Palace is a slight favorite at St James Park, so

641
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: I love the value on John o'bett at plus one

642
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 1: twenty five. From just from a projection standpoint, this line

643
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: is a little out of control and we're going to

644
00:29:57,000 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 1: probably keep seeing this from Newcastle from now until the

645
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: end of the season, so I'll keep trying to fade

646
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 1: them and keep losing. But I mean, eventually, I mean,

647
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: these lines are getting just too ridiculous on Newcastle.

648
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a weird spot for me here.

649
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 3: I've been on Palace for basically this entire season. I've

650
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 3: been betting them, and I'll be probably sitting this one

651
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 3: out while you two are on my Eagles. Maybe I'll

652
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: jump in because Anthony looks like you're looking that way too, right.

653
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is tough too. Like I went back and

654
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 2: looked into Newcastle again because I was like, what are

655
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 2: we missing here?

656
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 3: Right?

657
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 2: Because anytime we're consistently off on a team, I get

658
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 2: worried that we're missing something, and with this team it

659
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 2: makes a lot of sense. Right, Like they played bad,

660
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 2: they were like eighteenth nineteenth consensus team in the league.

661
00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure. I mean Watford and Norwich with only

662
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: two teams I ever had with them, they were a

663
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: relegation team. We all thought they were going down. Then

664
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 2: they get bought. Then they make good signings, good signings,

665
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: like we didn't think we're that good of signings, but

666
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 2: clearly have improved them. How far do you go now? Like?

667
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 2: How good are they? Because they played like the fourteenth

668
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 2: best team based on expected goals since January thirty first

669
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 2: the end of the January transfer window, which isn't which

670
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 2: is good, but like, are they better than that? Because

671
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 2: the market here says they definitely are, because they're now

672
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: a pretty solid favorite against a team who's consensus top twelve,

673
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: you know, ten, eleven, twelve, depending where you have them.

674
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: So I don't have Palace that much worse I have them.

675
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 2: I mean Palace that much worse when you factor in

676
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: home field advantage for Newcastle. So I'm gonna play Palace here.

677
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: I think the drama betline or the plus a quarter

678
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 2: goal is fine. I just I can't. I can't, like

679
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: I don't know what we're missing here, Like okay, so

680
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: like five point thirty eight has this as a toss up.

681
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 2: I have as a toss up. BJ haven't looked at

682
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 2: your numbers, but I'm guessing you have it.

683
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 1: A coastal Palace plus one thirty four.

684
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 2: Do you give them as a favorite. Yep, yeah, so

685
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: you're higher than even I am. So you know the market.

686
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 2: I respect the market. And Newcastle's clearly won the last

687
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 2: two matches and played relatively well. I mean like they've

688
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: been ugly games, but Palace has the better attack out

689
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: of and we compared to like the Wolves for example,

690
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 2: and Wolves in last year are two teams we think

691
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 2: are pretty big luck boxes. So maybe they were due

692
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: for some bad results to go against them. I don't

693
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 2: feel that way about Palace at all, So I'm gonna

694
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna play at Palace.

695
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 1: Here's one thing I will say about Newcastle. Look, if

696
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 1: you look through their schedule since the January transferre to

697
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: it's really not that difficult. They've played Chelsea and they've

698
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: played Tottenham, and they got thoroughly thrashed by Tottenham, and

699
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,600
Speaker 1: Chelsea pretty much dominated in most of the match because

700
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 1: they didn't create anything. If you look through and the

701
00:32:32,280 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 1: teams that they've played that press successfully they've tended to struggle.

702
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 1: I mean you look Chelsea the only point two XG

703
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: against Southampton only point six. You have Brentford in there.

704
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: Obviously they got a red card in the tenth minute,

705
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: so you got to throw that one out. You go

706
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: to Leeds they only had one point one expected goals,

707
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: so yes, they've created some chances. I mean they the

708
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 1: only two teams they've created over two expected goals since

709
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: the January transmitter are Everton and Brentford. So other than that,

710
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's really not that good. Honestly, I'm

711
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: looking through I'm not really that impressed with their their results.

712
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: But they've obviously had back to back to good, back

713
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: to back results. But I really think when they have

714
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: to face a team that's gonna press them successfully, they're

715
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 1: gonna crumble. So I think this match is going to

716
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 1: show that it's been.

717
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: Just such a strange year with Newcastle two. Just the

718
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 3: way they started they look like a surefire thing for relegation.

719
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 3: Then obviously the takeover, but yeah, a murder and they're.

720
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: Gonna they're gonna sign a bunch of players this summer.

721
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how we're going to have the heart

722
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:32,840
Speaker 2: I have no idea how next year.

723
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, obviously no idea.

724
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: I've already thought about it, and I'm not excited for it.

725
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:39,959
Speaker 1: I know we move have to wait like five matches

726
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: before we even bet them, because I truly have no idea.

727
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: Like we've said this far, we've never been in a scenario,

728
00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: especially midway through the season, where a team near the

729
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: bottom gets bought by basically the richest person world.

730
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: With the with the bottomless voice.

731
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 1: Unlimited money, Like this just doesn't happen.

732
00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: It'll be fun. And then I mean, I look, Bruno

733
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: Gemers is a Gamars is amazing way, he's a great player,

734
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 2: and like every want to go throw a ton of

735
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 2: money at another good midfielder, and like.

736
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: I mean they quadruple wages. I mean they can just

737
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 1: do that. Team players, That's what they can do.

738
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 3: And then you factor in Eddie how To, like, who's

739
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 3: a manager who I think is really tough to read

740
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 3: as well, and.

741
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 2: I think I have to improve my view on him

742
00:34:23,320 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: because yeah, I didn't think their players that they signed

743
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 2: were that good, Like Gamars wasn't even playing that much,

744
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:32,799
Speaker 2: but they're playing way better. Is a midfielder now, Joe

745
00:34:32,840 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: Linton is a midfielder. Now, yeah, he Dan Byrne.

746
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 1: I mean we all thought is the best pressing midfielder

747
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 1: on planet Earth.

748
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: Like it's crazy.

749
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 3: Let's talk about the team that Newcast will be fighting

750
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 3: for the title with against next year or tiny against

751
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,799
Speaker 3: for the title next year. It's Manchester City, another team

752
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 3: owned by a nation state. Their mind is four seventy

753
00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 3: five hosting Brighton, owned by a professional gambler. Uh, they're

754
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: sixteen to one on the money line of the draw

755
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 3: out here is five and a half to one back

756
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: to back when for the Seagulls as five to one

757
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:06,760
Speaker 3: money line underdogs. Don't know if it's gonna happen again

758
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 3: here with them sitting at sixteen to one and it's

759
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: sixteen sixteen to one.

760
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 2: Pretty mad. I hadn't either, to be honest. Yeah, with

761
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: the money line, I did bet the both games. I

762
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 2: didn't have the money line. I'm very upset about it.

763
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 3: The way they did it too, was interesting, right, Like

764
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 3: they didn't They kind of did an opposite of what

765
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,160
Speaker 3: they normally do. They only created point seven to one

766
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,280
Speaker 3: expected goals for per ninety in their last four matches,

767
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 3: I should say, and then they lost the expected goals

768
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 3: battle to Arsenal and then it was a toss up

769
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 3: against Spurs. But it's a good defensive effort from Brighton

770
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 3: holding them Tottenham, a red hot Tottenham offense under one

771
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,320
Speaker 3: expectacle and getting a clean sheet.

772
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, but if you.

773
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 3: Don't if you look at their last four matches and

774
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 3: draw on line through the Nord City match, they've they've

775
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 3: only created point seven to one expected goals for p

776
00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:54,200
Speaker 3: ninety and against the City defense. It's tough. It's gonna

777
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 3: be tough setting is what I should say. And it's

778
00:35:56,640 --> 00:35:58,760
Speaker 3: the type of game where it should be a slog City.

779
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 3: You know, we talked about it with Chelsea, We've talked

780
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: about it with Liverpool, another tough spot coming off the

781
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,839
Speaker 3: f A Cup semi final loss. Prior to that they

782
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 3: played in the Champions League and they had that crazy

783
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,920
Speaker 3: game with at Letty. Before that they played Liverpool and

784
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 3: then Letty and so it's just been a wild run

785
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,479
Speaker 3: here for for City. Now they play Brighton, a team

786
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 3: that can lull you to sleep in the same way

787
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 3: City kind of can. Just and I think this game

788
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 3: screams under. I think if you want to bet like

789
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: first half draw, that might be an interesting way to

790
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 3: angle it. But I do think City eventually gets out

791
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 3: of at a dodge here at home with the three points.

792
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 3: So I got nothing really here, Bja, you got your

793
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 3: Brighton jersey.

794
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, but uh.

795
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: Well they gave me hope, Michael on Saturday morning, hope

796
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 1: for an Arsenal top four and then ARBs does what

797
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,439
Speaker 1: they do and they take my head and they curb

798
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: stomp those hopes, and.

799
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 2: HEJ tweeted Brighton and all caps. I'm sitting in my

800
00:36:54,239 --> 00:37:00,120
Speaker 2: room and I'm just watching this and I'm.

801
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: I was so happy, and then then I wasn't.

802
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 2: After that, I was okay with the draw for betting

803
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 2: purposes and fan purposes, but then they had to go

804
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 2: stick the knife out. The win was great, well for you,

805
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 2: and but then then Southampton won and I was like, okay, well,

806
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 2: thank god I didn't play Arsenal one and two.

807
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: Ha.

808
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,719
Speaker 2: But I like Brighton. You know the saying what's the

809
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: saying form is temporary, class is permanent. Yep. Brighton had

810
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: a dip in form. They were bad. They lost like

811
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 2: six in a row. They tied Norwich. Everybody's like, oh

812
00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 2: it's over. Brighton. Is a dog has returned? You know,

813
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 2: they've lost some matches as favorites, but they're on an

814
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 2: underdog yet again. And I know they got waxed by City.

815
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 2: I mean waxed, waxed. It's three and a half hour

816
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 2: the first time they played this year. But that's one game.

817
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 2: Form is temporary, class is permanent. Grandpotter's class. Last year

818
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 2: they played twice one nil. Brighton won the second match.

819
00:37:47,560 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 2: It was after City of cuinch the league. But again,

820
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 2: there's no reason they can't be competitive with them. They're

821
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 2: competitive with Liverpool, they're competitive with Arsenal. They're beating Spurs

822
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,839
Speaker 2: and Arsenal. They're tying Liverpool. They tied Chelsea twice. Why

823
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 2: can't they get a result or lose by one or

824
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 2: even two in push? I like the plus two minus

825
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: one twenty five. I bet it already. I don't think

826
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 2: it's a great matchup, but I didn't think it was

827
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: a great matchup. It's Toddenham either. I thought Todden's quick

828
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 2: strike attack would be a big problem and it wasn't.

829
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:16,239
Speaker 2: They just took it away. So I'm trusting Potter as

830
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 2: a dog. I think this is like a one to

831
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: noil two one kind of game.

832
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: And then we'll close it out with another big one

833
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 3: for the relegation battle. It's Burnley plus one ninety hosting

834
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 3: Southampton to draw. Here is plus two thirty five. Let's

835
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 3: pause for a second to discuss what happened at Burnley

836
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 3: on Friday. Sean Ditsch was let go, resigned, seemed all

837
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 3: sorts of confusion, but it was that he was sacked,

838
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 3: I guess by the owners. They bring in an interim manager,

839
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 3: Michael Jackson. I believe Michael Johnson. I can't remember his

840
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 3: name now, and bend me. They're center back and club

841
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 3: captain as an interim coach as well because he's hurt.

842
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 3: And what happens the new manager bounce results in a

843
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 3: one to one draw to west Ham in a game

844
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 3: that they were both lucky not to lose but also

845
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 3: unlucky not to win because they could have went up

846
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,640
Speaker 3: to nil on a Maxwell Corney.

847
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 4: Penalty shot that he missed. So yeah, just a weird one.

848
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: They allowed two point seven nine expected goals to west

849
00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 3: Ham and they've allowed six point seven expected goals allowed

850
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: over the last three matches. So when you talk about

851
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 3: Sean Ditsch, that's not what you would expect. You expect

852
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:21,840
Speaker 3: these defensive numbers to be a little bit better. The

853
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,760
Speaker 3: offensive numbers. You know, they don't really matter to Burnley

854
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 3: when Ditsche has his pause on them.

855
00:39:27,360 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 4: But I just almost like.

856
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,680
Speaker 3: Newcastle a little bit, or you know, I guess you

857
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: could say Everton. The numbers really don't matter all that

858
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 3: much when you're handicapping a Burnley match right.

859
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 4: Now, because you just kind of don't know what.

860
00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 3: This team's gonna do on a given night. They're all

861
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,359
Speaker 3: over the place with everything, but they work hard. They're

862
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 3: gonna work hard, they're gonna fight for their Premier League

863
00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 3: lives and that might be enough in the spot to

864
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 3: pull one over on Southampton who's got nothing to play

865
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 3: for and is traveling to turf More on a Thursday

866
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 3: afternoon or Thursday evening for them.

867
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 4: So I don't know Bja anything.

868
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: This is not goodbye, it's it's see you later. To

869
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: shann Dach. She'll be back with some other club and

870
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 1: bringing them up from the ruins and we'll be He'll

871
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: be back in the Premier League.

872
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:11,959
Speaker 4: Birmingham City is going to be the one.

873
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: Am City Scunthorpe United. There's one of these teams he'll

874
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 1: bring up, uh and we'll see him again at some point.

875
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 1: Very weird. Honestly, I was shocked. I mean he's been

876
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:24,279
Speaker 1: there for ten years. It feels very weird to you're

877
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: like a very weird sacking. So but I mean the

878
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: style of playf from Burnley is not going to change

879
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,959
Speaker 1: at all. I mean they said it on the broadcast today.

880
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,360
Speaker 1: This team only knows how to play one way together.

881
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 1: So changing that for the last this last little bit

882
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: stretch of the season, I mean it's it's not going

883
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: to happen. Really, what they should do they should get

884
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 1: Sam Allardyce and get him on the in the dugout

885
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 1: and allow him to run the sport for two and

886
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:52,160
Speaker 1: maybe get some revenge and every time. But they won't

887
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:54,720
Speaker 1: do that. But as far as this match is concerned,

888
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 1: I don't see anything other than chaos. I mean they

889
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 1: allowed I mean the second half, there weren't just chances

890
00:41:00,440 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 1: goalore for west Ham. I mean there was four point

891
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: six total expected goals created in that match. Today, I

892
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,239
Speaker 1: mean we have rivaling four to four. Two is playing

893
00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: against each other. But I mean Southampton's been wide open

894
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 1: at the back and this is the second year now

895
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 1: and I think we need to pencil this in next year,

896
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 1: because this is the second straight year that Southampton's just

897
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: completely falling off a cliff over the second half of

898
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: the season once they get comfortable in the middle of

899
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 1: the table. So since January fifteenth, Southampton's defense is allowing

900
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 1: one point sixty five expected goals per match, which is

901
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 1: seventeenth in the Premier League. But Burnley they haven't been

902
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: that great over that same time for him e allowing

903
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 1: around one point six expected goals per match. But this

904
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: isn't really that great of a matchup for Southampton because

905
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: not only are they dead last in big scoring chances allowed,

906
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: but they're also fourteenth and crosses allowed in their own

907
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: penalty and Burnley is top ten at playing through pressure.

908
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 1: But I actually like over two and a half goals

909
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,880
Speaker 1: at plus one ten, I have about two point sixty

910
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:58,919
Speaker 1: seven goals projected for this one, and I don't really

911
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 1: see how you know, these teams aren't going to play

912
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 1: incredibly open with what we see from Southampton over the

913
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 1: last few weeks, and given the fact that Burnley does

914
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,719
Speaker 1: not have the luxury of just sitting back in there

915
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 1: four to fur two, they have to come out and

916
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 1: they have to go for wins. So I'm expecting chaos

917
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 1: like over two goals and plus.

918
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 4: One ten Anthony.

919
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:20,600
Speaker 3: Before the show, I was saying that I'm concerned as

920
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 3: an Everdence fan that this is a great time to

921
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 3: be playing Southampton. I think that, like I said, it's

922
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 3: just they got nothing to play for. They're traveling up

923
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 3: to turf More and from the sunny.

924
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 4: South coast to Lancaster.

925
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,919
Speaker 3: That's not something to really look forward to, it, I guess,

926
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 3: especially in a meaningless game. However, you said I might

927
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 3: be underestimating Ralph hassen Hul's charges here.

928
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like their defense is falling off, but

929
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 2: I don't think they've like quit. I mean they just

930
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,799
Speaker 2: beat arsenal right, So I don't have a strong opinion here.

931
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 2: I also leaned toward the over Burnley. We're way too

932
00:42:53,000 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 2: open at the end of the match today. I mean,

933
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 2: I was burning better and I was like, why are

934
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 2: they sending five dudes forward in the eighty eighth minute

935
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,960
Speaker 2: and the tie game don Sean Disch would never So

936
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: maybe this is going to be a little bit more

937
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:07,320
Speaker 2: open of a of a strategy, maybe because they need points.

938
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 2: They're going to be at home. I get I get

939
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:12,279
Speaker 2: all those points, right, I understand it, but yeah, I

940
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 2: think that all kind of leans that way, and I

941
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 2: have a strong read here. Last time they played, it

942
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,600
Speaker 2: went over pretty comfortably and it was pretty wide open

943
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:21,720
Speaker 2: more than you'd think. There was some set piece goals.

944
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:24,040
Speaker 2: There was a couple of howlers from Southampton Boro. At

945
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: the time of the year, Southampton was the team who

946
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: was the big underperformer and their goalie was running really hot.

947
00:43:29,680 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 2: Well now that's kind of come back down to earth

948
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 2: a little bit. So I have no strong opinion on

949
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 2: this match.

950
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: Weather update from Burnley on Thursday.

951
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 2: It can't be bad.

952
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess the ranges follows Sean. The rain,

953
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,280
Speaker 1: I mean the rain, heaven and partly cloudy.

954
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 2: I mean it's beautiful.

955
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, quite beautiful day April Bay.

956
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, April's a nice month.

957
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 3: Then i'll wrap up the Premier League part of the show.

958
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 3: Let's move on to a couple other leagues that are

959
00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:01,759
Speaker 3: in action. We'll start with La League BJ. What do

960
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:02,560
Speaker 3: you have for us here?

961
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with the snoozer. Celta Vigo Guitafe.

962
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:08,959
Speaker 1: Both teams to score no. At minus one thirty, gonna

963
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:10,400
Speaker 1: be a real I mean, the total is set at

964
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: two with minus one ten both ways on the over

965
00:44:12,520 --> 00:44:14,759
Speaker 1: and under. I mean these teams have been setting up

966
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,920
Speaker 1: very very defensively. Both play out of four to four twos.

967
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 1: They're both very good defensively out of those formations, allowing

968
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,560
Speaker 1: under one point two five x g per ninety Gaitafe

969
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 1: is the worst offense in Spain and maybe the worst

970
00:44:26,000 --> 00:44:28,800
Speaker 1: in all of Europe. They're only averaging point six seven

971
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals per match. In fact, they've only

972
00:44:32,760 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: created a total of fifteen big scoring chances in thirty

973
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: two matches, which is the lowest mark among europ top

974
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 1: five leagues. With that being said, there are a very

975
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: good defensive team allowing on a little under one non

976
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: penalty expectable per match. They're top five in Spain and

977
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 1: shots allowed per ninety and a big scoring chance allowed.

978
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 1: Celta Vigo has been in a rut offensively over the

979
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 1: past three months, only averaging around point nine x G

980
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 1: per ninety over the last twelve matches, and honestly the

981
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: biggest problem is there not getting very many shots off

982
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: fifteenth in La Liga in shots per ninety. Defensively, though

983
00:45:05,800 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: they've been excellent in those twelve matches, only one point

984
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: zero two non penalty expectacles allowed per match and only

985
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 1: eight big scoring chances allowed as well. This is the

986
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,840
Speaker 1: biggest thing though. In twenty of thirty of South of

987
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:20,840
Speaker 1: Ego's thirty two matches, at least one team has failed

988
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: to score at least one expected goal. For Gatafe that

989
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 1: numbers twenty seven out of thirty two. So they've just

990
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: been incredibly defensive, incredibly sloggy, and I'm expecting that for

991
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 1: this one. I have the both teams to score no

992
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: line projected at minus two to twenty, so I love

993
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 1: the value on both teams to score no at minus

994
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: one thirty and I'm hoping for a snoozer.

995
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 3: Anthony, you also are looking at something in the league

996
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 3: of over the midweek, Yeah.

997
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: Ryo Vakano Drono Bett at plus one ten. I mean,

998
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:53,880
Speaker 2: it's been a fun year for this team. They started

999
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 2: off the season ridiculously hot. They were underrated in the

1000
00:45:56,680 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: market horrendously to begin the season, then they became over rated.

1001
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 2: Now they're underrated again. They went through a terrible period.

1002
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 2: They have not won quite a while in La Liga

1003
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 2: at this point now winless. Lost a match over the

1004
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 2: weekend to olives that they were clearly the better side.

1005
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 2: They have not won a match in La Liga Alavase

1006
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: in December, so I understand that is a scary proposition

1007
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: to back said team. But they are fourteenth in the

1008
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 2: La Liga table despite having a pretty even goal difference,

1009
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:31,919
Speaker 2: and now they're playing the Espanol team who's been pretty

1010
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 2: fortunate and run very well the entire season, except for

1011
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 2: today against at Letti when they got a horrendous beat

1012
00:46:39,120 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 2: in the ninety ninth minute. But overall, I mean this,

1013
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 2: this team twelfth in the table despite bottom five numbers.

1014
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 2: So I'm not really a big Espanol fan and I

1015
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 2: think Ryo should be a favorite. So at plus one

1016
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 2: to ten, I'm taking the Ryo boys on the drama

1017
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:58,239
Speaker 2: betline to finally win a damn match. I didn't realize

1018
00:46:58,440 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: how long it's really been.

1019
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 1: I said it last week.

1020
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know they were the better team.

1021
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 4: And then how about this, There is some legal to

1022
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 4: talk about a le lo m That's all I have

1023
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:11,439
Speaker 4: to say.

1024
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 2: What a performance in the loss today, But they come.

1025
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 1: Shut out to Bordeaux, by the way, get an eighty

1026
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,879
Speaker 1: fifth minute penalty after being down five nothing to get

1027
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 1: both teams to score. That was beautiful. That was very poetic.

1028
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:25,879
Speaker 1: So shout outs to no right, you know they're gonna

1029
00:47:25,880 --> 00:47:29,720
Speaker 1: even though they're gonna be probably going down, Shout out.

1030
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: To them big relegation six pointer, Bordeu and sen at

1031
00:47:32,280 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 2: the end.

1032
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 1: Oh no we're going.

1033
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 2: Oh no, we're going Bordeau.

1034
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: No no, no, no, We're going Bordeaux.

1035
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 2: You're betting Bordeaux.

1036
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 1: I am betting Bordeaux.

1037
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 4: Okay, is that your Is that your favorite?

1038
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 1: That's not my pick, but I will be betting Bordeaux.

1039
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 1: I'm I'm loving I'm loving snoozers. In the midweek lens,

1040
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 1: Montpellier under two and a half at plus one ten

1041
00:47:55,560 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 1: two offenses that have overperform pretty drastically this season. Piliers

1042
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: scored forty four goals off thirty five expected lens fifty

1043
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: off of forty four expected lens. Has been getting very

1044
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,279
Speaker 1: lucky offensively as of late last four matches scored eight

1045
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: goals off four point one expected. The Montpellier defense is

1046
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: really bad. They ranked dead last and shots loud per

1047
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: ninety box entries crossed the completed in the penalty area.

1048
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,360
Speaker 1: But with that being said, they're very good at keeping

1049
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:28,719
Speaker 1: those chances in the box to as low of quality

1050
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,919
Speaker 1: as possible because they are eighth and big scoring chances

1051
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:36,000
Speaker 1: allowed in their fourth in average shot distance. Lens also

1052
00:48:36,000 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 1: announcestanding defense that should be able to put up a

1053
00:48:38,600 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 1: clean shit against a overperforming mont Pilier offense. Lens top

1054
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 1: six and expected goals loud shots loud per ninety, big

1055
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 1: scoring chances allowed, and their defense has been very good

1056
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:51,760
Speaker 1: at home, only allowing one point one x g per ninety.

1057
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 1: I only have around two point three goals projected, so

1058
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: under two and a half at plus one ten, I

1059
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,959
Speaker 1: think it's a decent price on Lens momp.

1060
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to our favorite underdogs for

1061
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:05,280
Speaker 3: the midweek Anthony.

1062
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:06,719
Speaker 4: I'll let you kick it off.

1063
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 2: We have been so close the last few weeks. I

1064
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:11,520
Speaker 2: mean we had two out of three a couple weeks

1065
00:49:11,520 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 2: ago and Bologna drew in the final match. We had

1066
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 2: two out of three last weekend, Breast took the lead

1067
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 2: one nail. I did not drink it, don't.

1068
00:49:19,880 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 1: Believe in that.

1069
00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:23,200
Speaker 2: But all I said was we're live if we were

1070
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: at the time.

1071
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 1: Anybody, anybody out there who's listening to this, I'm going

1072
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:30,799
Speaker 1: to say this Anthony. If this happens again, just don't

1073
00:49:30,800 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 1: say a word, please, I'm not going to just let

1074
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 1: it happen.

1075
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 2: Okay, Well, we were eighty three to one and we

1076
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:38,480
Speaker 2: were ahead and all three or have won all.

1077
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:39,959
Speaker 4: Three matches at one point, so.

1078
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:43,120
Speaker 2: We are so close that I can almost taste it.

1079
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 2: And I am going with the worst team in Spain

1080
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:51,719
Speaker 2: based on the table, to win a match, because anytime

1081
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 2: you can fae bet On Leavonte, you have to do

1082
00:49:56,200 --> 00:50:00,920
Speaker 2: it at home. And I understand that they have conceded

1083
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 2: sixty two goals and thirty two matches, but they're expected goals,

1084
00:50:04,200 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 2: say they should have only conceded forty three. They've scored

1085
00:50:07,440 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 2: thirty nine from a expected forty one. So they are

1086
00:50:10,080 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 2: the unluckiest team in years, really, and probably the unluckiest

1087
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:15,400
Speaker 2: team in Europe. I don't have the whole table in

1088
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 2: front of me, but I'm fairly confident they are. They

1089
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,879
Speaker 2: are at home against Sevilla, who blew the lead against

1090
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,359
Speaker 2: Real Madrid today. Probably a little unlucky there, but over

1091
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: the course of the season they are third in the

1092
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 2: La Liga table, tied with at La Tien Barsa, but

1093
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 2: they're expected gold differential per ninety minutes ninth, so Sevilla

1094
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 2: extremely overrated. Levante is actually pretty much two spots behind

1095
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 2: them in the table, so in the XG table, but

1096
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,160
Speaker 2: the actual table they're seventeen spots apart. The gap between

1097
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 2: these two teams is not big enough for Sevia to

1098
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:49,839
Speaker 2: be a plus one ten favorite on the road, So

1099
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 2: give me the Vonte at home plus two to fifty.

1100
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 4: I'm going with Manchester United, of all people.

1101
00:50:55,520 --> 00:50:58,760
Speaker 3: They're seven to one against Liverpool. It's been a really

1102
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:02,480
Speaker 3: really ugly season, really ugly couple months for Manchester United,

1103
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 3: and it nearly nearly hit rock bottom against Norwich on

1104
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 3: the weekend, and that makes us a good spot to

1105
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 3: buy low on the Red Devils, even if it means

1106
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:15,280
Speaker 3: a bet against red hot Liverpool, and boy, betting against

1107
00:51:15,280 --> 00:51:18,279
Speaker 3: Liverpool is not fun. They're ten to one to zero

1108
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 3: win draw loss, and they're less eleven Premier League matches,

1109
00:51:20,719 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 3: and that doesn't include an FA Cup win and a

1110
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 3: win and a draw in.

1111
00:51:25,080 --> 00:51:26,000
Speaker 1: The Champions League.

1112
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 3: So this sounds terrible and it will be terrible, but

1113
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 3: at some point the defensive regression will come for this team.

1114
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 3: They've allowed just four goals in their less eleven matches.

1115
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 3: But according to expected goals that number should be closer

1116
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 3: than nine. So hopefully the United is a team to

1117
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 3: reap some of that defensive regression, because for all their

1118
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:46,359
Speaker 3: defensive flaws, United are actually a decent offensive outfit. They're

1119
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 3: creating one point seventy three expected goals for per ninety

1120
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 3: over their least thirteen matches, so they should hopefully be

1121
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 3: able to get on the board and maybe some defensive

1122
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:57,719
Speaker 3: improvement in a game that will matter a lot to

1123
00:51:57,760 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 3: them against a team that's in a terrible spot coming

1124
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 3: off of two games against man City in a week

1125
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 3: Champions two Champions League tie Sandwich on either side of those,

1126
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:11,280
Speaker 3: and merseysid Darby to look forward to on the weekend,

1127
00:52:11,320 --> 00:52:14,160
Speaker 3: so Liverpool's been playing a ton of soccer. Hopefully United

1128
00:52:14,280 --> 00:52:18,720
Speaker 3: can nick this one seven to one, BJ your favorite underdog.

1129
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:22,760
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go nice plus three twenty in on against

1130
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 1: on the road at Monaco. I have Nie projected at

1131
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 1: plus two seventy, so showing a little bit of value there.

1132
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 1: This is a good cell high spot on Monica, who's

1133
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:34,240
Speaker 1: won four straight matches. Just beat Ren on the weekend

1134
00:52:34,760 --> 00:52:37,480
Speaker 1: on Friday three to two. Been running a little hot

1135
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:42,200
Speaker 1: offensively scored about ten goals off of seven expected Nice

1136
00:52:42,560 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 1: has really rebounded from a little bit of a dip

1137
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 1: in form. They just destroyed Laurent this past Sunday. They

1138
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 1: lost three nothing to Lens but one expected goals two

1139
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 1: to one. You know, they lost to Marseille even on

1140
00:52:55,440 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 1: expected goals. They beat PSG was even on expected goals

1141
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,080
Speaker 1: with them. This is just a really really good team

1142
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:04,120
Speaker 1: and the Monico offense really has been struggling season. They're

1143
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 1: ninth in non penalty expected goals and thirteenth and shots

1144
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: per ninety in lyon. So I think this is a

1145
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:14,919
Speaker 1: decent price on Christoph Galtier's boys to grab all three

1146
00:53:14,960 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 1: points in a really really heated top three battle in

1147
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: France right now. So give me then East plus three twenty.

1148
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to our favorite Premier League bets.

1149
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,320
Speaker 3: I'm going to kick it off here because they're my boys,

1150
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,560
Speaker 3: Everton plus one forty against Leicester. Sometimes a betting you're

1151
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 3: betting on teams, Sometimes you're betting against teams, in this

1152
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 3: case betting against Leicester City. They have a three to

1153
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 3: one to two record win draw loss over the last

1154
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 3: six matches, but they've lost the expected goal bet on

1155
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 3: five of those six matches, and in that span they've

1156
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 3: allowed one.

1157
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 4: Point ninety six expectacles.

1158
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 3: Against for ninety minutes, so it's hard to imagine them

1159
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 3: keeping Everton off the board here. Meanwhile, Everdence should continue

1160
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,560
Speaker 3: to improve defensively with Yuri Mina back in the lineup

1161
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: and Fabian delf and Alan back and healthy. They looked

1162
00:53:58,640 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 3: good against Manchester United acting Everton shaky back for and

1163
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 3: as bad as Everton have been overall, they've been abysmal

1164
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 3: on the road and not terrible, not too too terrible

1165
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 3: at home, They've been much better at home than on

1166
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,280
Speaker 3: the road. So I think this is a good price

1167
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:16,359
Speaker 3: plus one forty to take on Lester in a game

1168
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:18,720
Speaker 3: that matters nothing to them and the world to Everton

1169
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: at home in front of that Goodison Park crowd should

1170
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 3: be electric on Wednesday night, BJA your favorite bet.

1171
00:54:24,400 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 1: Liverpool minus four and a half at plus one fifteen.

1172
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 1: So what has changed for Manchester United playing against big

1173
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:34,040
Speaker 1: squads from old Gonnesslshar to Ralph Ragneck, Well, to me nothing,

1174
00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 1: We've seen it one time under Ragnik when they've played

1175
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 1: against Manchester City and they got absolutely throttled, So I

1176
00:54:39,800 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 1: think this is another spot where United is going to

1177
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: get caught, which happens a lot when they played Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester,

1178
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 1: Manchester City, where they get caught in their own final

1179
00:54:49,120 --> 00:54:52,279
Speaker 1: third and they're just hoping, hoping that they can send

1180
00:54:52,360 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 1: Rinaldo or Sancho out on a counter and potentially score. Well. Liverpool,

1181
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,839
Speaker 1: I understand they've been playing a lot of matches over

1182
00:54:59,880 --> 00:55:01,720
Speaker 1: the the past two weeks. This is their sixth match

1183
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 1: in seventeen days, but they have been in incredible form,

1184
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 1: especially at home in the Premier League. Last ten Premier

1185
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 1: League matches they won all of them, have a plus

1186
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: twenty four point three expected gold of frenchal and matched United.

1187
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: On the other hand, they went up to nothing against

1188
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,640
Speaker 1: Norwich on Saturday. They allowed the worst team in the

1189
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:20,960
Speaker 1: Premier League to draw them level at two to two

1190
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: and needed a Ronaldo stunner to actually get win the

1191
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 1: match three to two, and expected goals was about even

1192
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: with the worst team in the Premier League. Last time

1193
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 1: new team Teams met Liverpool thrashed them five nothing. When

1194
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 1: they've had to play City and Chelsea, I mean the

1195
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:39,240
Speaker 1: combined expected goal differential is around minus nine against City,

1196
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,960
Speaker 1: Chelsea and Liverpool this season, so I do not see

1197
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: how United's going to be competitive here, especially going to

1198
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,080
Speaker 1: a field with another look ahead against a huge match

1199
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 1: against Arsenal on Saturday. I have Liverpool spread projected at

1200
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:54,359
Speaker 1: minus one point eight, so I love the Reds minus

1201
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:55,800
Speaker 1: one and a half at plus one fifteen.

1202
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:58,479
Speaker 4: All right, and Anthony, you can take us home here.

1203
00:55:58,719 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna stick in the same game. I'm going

1204
00:56:00,280 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 2: to take both teams to score, yes, minus one thirty.

1205
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:07,360
Speaker 2: I think people are getting so into this Liverpool Liverpool,

1206
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: Liverpool will dominate this match, and they very well may,

1207
00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 2: and I think they will create a ton of chances

1208
00:56:11,920 --> 00:56:14,279
Speaker 2: and probably score multiple goals in this match. But I

1209
00:56:14,320 --> 00:56:17,560
Speaker 2: also think the Liverpool defense continues to play a style

1210
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 2: with such a high line and so aggressive that they

1211
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 2: are vulnerable on the counter. They're vulnerable over the top,

1212
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 2: They're vulnerable on the wings and behind Alexander Arnold and Robertson.

1213
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 2: I have United projected at point nine to four goals

1214
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 2: in this match, which means they score about sixty two

1215
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 2: percent of the time. You can get minus one thirty

1216
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 2: out there. Last time they met, of course, it was

1217
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 2: an embarrassment. Liverpool won five NOL, but United managed twelve shots,

1218
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 2: one and a half expected goals and really should have

1219
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:45,800
Speaker 2: scored in the match despite getting a red card in

1220
00:56:45,840 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 2: the sixtieth minute. I do think there will be goals,

1221
00:56:48,280 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 2: and I do think United will score, and of course

1222
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 2: Liverpool at home will be heavily fancied to score. So

1223
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 2: I'm going both teams to score minus one thirty in

1224
00:56:55,680 --> 00:56:56,799
Speaker 2: this match, all right.

1225
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,040
Speaker 3: And that should do it for another episode of Wonder

1226
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 3: Goal for Anthony and b J Cunningham. I'm Michael Ebaugh,

1227
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 3: wishing you the best of luck with your bets this weekend.

1228
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 4: We will see you Thursday morning. M