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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast MLB Edition, National League.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Colin Wilson. We're gonna go over some

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Speaker 2: more Major League Baseball today from a National League standpoint,

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Speaker 2: and I'm joined by MLB expert Sean Zarillo from the

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Speaker 2: Action Network. Sean, how you doing today?

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Speaker 1: Do you good man?

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Speaker 3: How are you?

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Speaker 2: You and I can see each other as we cut

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Speaker 2: these videos, and you got all this Mets stuff on,

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Speaker 2: you know, like I love of the Metskiers. It brings

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Speaker 2: back a lot of good, positive memories.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that wasn't the best memories for me.

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Speaker 1: You know. You guys might have been the last World

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Speaker 1: Series champion that didn't cheat. So the last untainted World

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Speaker 1: Series champion, the Kansas City Royals.

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Speaker 2: Perhaps everybody keep in mind March twenty third, March twenty fourth,

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Speaker 2: I believe the Indians are playing the Astros and the

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Speaker 2: spring training ball and if Mike Clevenger's on the mound,

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Speaker 2: there's gonna be I think let's say this here as

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Speaker 2: we start the podcast, and we'll listen to it at

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Speaker 2: the end of the year. Over under number of beans

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Speaker 2: that Alex Bregman is going to take I'll set the

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Speaker 2: number at nine and a half. I mean, it's it's

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Speaker 2: gonna end up in an automatic ejection, right, I mean

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Speaker 2: the umpire is not stupid, But how many times do

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Speaker 2: you think I mean, it could be a middle reliever,

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Speaker 2: could be a guy that's up for a cup of coffee.

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Speaker 2: How many times you think Bregman's going to get hit.

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Speaker 2: I'll set it at nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: How many different teams did they played that They got

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Speaker 1: what fourteen to play in their league and then five

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Speaker 1: at least in another league?

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Speaker 3: So right, maybe bump it up closer to fifteen for.

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Speaker 2: The teams that we introduce, will go through what they're

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Speaker 2: projected Vegas win total was in twenty nineteen, what they

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Speaker 2: finished at, what their PATHAG number was. PATHAG looks at

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Speaker 2: run scored versus runs against and says, well, did you

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Speaker 2: really were you supposed to win this many games? I

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Speaker 2: know we're going to bring up to San Francisco Giants

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Speaker 2: in this podcast. We're going to talk about how many

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Speaker 2: games they won, you know, just one run ball games.

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Speaker 2: It was a pretty amazing stat There should be some

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Speaker 2: regression there, and then we're going to talk about some

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Speaker 2: of the other projection systems. Since we've done the al podcast,

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Speaker 2: Pakoda has come out with their projections, so we're going

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Speaker 2: to include a little bit of talk about them. Sean

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Speaker 2: had a great tweet out today about how you probably

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Speaker 2: can't trust Pakoda and some of their projections. I know

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Speaker 2: we just talked about the Royals in twenty fifteen. I

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Speaker 2: think they were projected to win seventy games in a

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Speaker 2: year they won over ninety five. I fly ball to

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Speaker 2: center and that balls. Yeah, let them going back back

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Speaker 2: to the wall hold run. We'll go ahead and start

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Speaker 2: with the Dodgers. There's no reason to think that somebody

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Speaker 2: else is going to win this division because of the

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Speaker 2: moves that they've made. I don't know how in the

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Speaker 2: world you pull You already have Cody Bellinger and you're

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Speaker 2: able to pull off a trade for Mookie Bets, and

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Speaker 2: I know that they had to inherit the contract of

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Speaker 2: David Price. But they're twenty nineteen projected win total. In

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Speaker 2: ninety three wins, they ended up with one hundred and six.

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Speaker 2: The FAG says that they should have won one hundred

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Speaker 2: and seven. So no fluke, no joking them. They're at

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Speaker 2: the West Gate at one hundred and a half one

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Speaker 2: hundred point five. For their win total, you've got to

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Speaker 2: project it at one hundred. So obviously you think the

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Speaker 2: numbers pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty much everybody in the market is between one

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Speaker 1: hundred and Pekota is the highest on one hundred and three.

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Speaker 1: So this is clearly one of the two best teams

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Speaker 1: in baseball. We talked about the Yankees, you know, the

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Speaker 1: other day, and I said, I have them pretty much

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Speaker 1: neck and neck, within a tenth of a win in each other.

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Speaker 1: You know, in terms of true talent, if you take

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Speaker 1: Bellinger and Bets off of this team, they probably still

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Speaker 1: win ninety four games. That's that's how much talent there

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Speaker 1: is on this roster besides those two superstars, and then

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Speaker 1: just adding them, you know, it really puts it over

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Speaker 1: the top. So they're loaded from top to bottom. This

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Speaker 1: organization is so built up. This isn't just a major

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Speaker 1: league roster. This is a and an organization that has

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Speaker 1: six top hundred prospects, a bunch that are on the

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Speaker 1: cusp of the major leagues. I mean, if I'm being honest,

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Speaker 1: they could still go out and swing a trade for

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Speaker 1: Francisco Lindor. I don't know how they would fit it

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Speaker 1: in if they would get rid of Seeker or what

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Speaker 1: have you, but they absolutely have the pieces to swing

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Speaker 1: that trade and would certainly be willing to, you know,

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Speaker 1: insert another guy like that into their lineup.

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Speaker 3: So excellent defensive team.

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Speaker 1: You know, Bets doesn't really fill an area that was

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Speaker 1: a problem last year. He's plus ninety three though in

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Speaker 1: right field over the past three years that the closest

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Speaker 1: right fielder to him is Aaron Judge, who has half

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Speaker 1: that many runs saved.

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Speaker 3: Kind of shuffled up the pitching rotation a little bit.

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Speaker 1: He jan Rue Maida, Rich Hill Algne brought in price

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Speaker 1: in that bet strade, but they have plenty of prospects to.

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Speaker 3: You know, round out that rotation.

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Speaker 1: Bottom Blake Trinon, who who knows, maybe he takes up

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Speaker 1: the closer role by the end of the year. So

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Speaker 1: interesting doctor team outside of the stars that they have.

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Speaker 1: And uh, it's gonna be interesting to see, you know,

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Speaker 1: between the doctors and nakes, who could win more games.

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Speaker 2: Tell me more about their prospects because I here untils Oklahoma,

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Speaker 2: which is the double A to the Dodgers. The drillers

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Speaker 2: that we have here in town, and Oklahoma City's right

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Speaker 2: down the road, and that's their Triple A. And I've

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Speaker 2: seen a lot of these guys that we're going to

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Speaker 2: talk about, but let some of the people know, Like

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Speaker 2: what do the Dodgers have, But they're so rich in

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Speaker 2: the farm, who is it that we might see this year?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So Gavin Walks who came up at the end

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Speaker 1: of last year, he was in the playoffs. He could

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Speaker 1: handle shortstop, but he was playing second base because seekers

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Speaker 1: at shortstop. So he was basically a piece that they

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Speaker 1: were unwilling to part with in order to get lind

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Speaker 1: or unwilling to part with at all for Bets That

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Speaker 1: wasn't really realistic considering Bets his one year remaining on

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Speaker 1: his contract.

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Speaker 3: Then they know they have young catchers.

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Speaker 1: They brought up Will Smith last year, the fresh Prince

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Speaker 1: of La guy has a lot of power. They have

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Speaker 1: Cabert Ruiz who's a switch hitter. He's in Triple A

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Speaker 1: right now. They got those guys. They got Jaziah Gray,

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Speaker 1: it was a pitching prospect. He was a Converty College shortstop.

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Speaker 1: And then you guys probably remember Dustin May from last

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Speaker 1: year with the sweet Red lettis coming in throwing flames.

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Speaker 1: He's got high spin on all his pitches, and I

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Speaker 1: think he's poised to potentially become their number three pitcher

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of things about this Dodgers team. They're

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Speaker 2: extremely deep. Not not just talented, they're extremely deep. It

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Speaker 2: should be interesting to see what they do with Muki

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Speaker 2: at the conclusion of this season. I know the Angels

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Speaker 2: are right around the corner to offer him a four

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars contract or probably some ownership or something

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Speaker 2: like the Angels always do. But as far as the

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Speaker 2: wind total goes, we think anything under the one hundred

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Speaker 2: and a half is probably worth a play. There may

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Speaker 2: be some steam here in the last month before we

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Speaker 2: actually get the first pitch, So would you say anything

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Speaker 2: at one oh one and above it's worth maybe a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a play because the Division odds on

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Speaker 2: the Dodgers are always inflated. The World Series odds are

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Speaker 2: a little bit inflated, even though they kind of earn

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Speaker 2: it with what they have. But the wind total may

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Speaker 2: be the best bet.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the win tote bounced around. It kind of opened

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Speaker 1: closer to one hundred, got that down to ninety eight.

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Speaker 1: Now it's back over one hundred now that Bets is

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Speaker 1: on the team. So I took a little stab at

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Speaker 1: one hundred early obviously, you know, it moved my way

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Speaker 1: initially and then Bets swung it back to wrong direction.

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Speaker 3: We mentioned that stat on the aopod about the.

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Speaker 1: Five teams who have had win totals over one hundred

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Speaker 1: in the past decade have all gone under. So you know,

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Speaker 1: if you're willing to fade a team that's as good

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Speaker 1: as the Dodgers, that's the way to go. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: bet against them in the division.

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Speaker 2: Well, so many people love Pakota, and Pakoda has them

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Speaker 2: at one hundred and three, So maybe we get a

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Speaker 2: little bump up in the wind totally, or as we

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Speaker 2: get through spring training and I get some value on

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Speaker 2: the under. Here there's Scott Rowland hits one in a

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Speaker 2: teep left field back and contending wise. Well, that leads

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Speaker 2: us to the Diamondbacks. Now I love the Diamondbacks. I

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Speaker 2: know you and I were kind of looking at their

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Speaker 2: futures in different categories, but when we look at their

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen season, their odds were set by Vegas and

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Speaker 2: Jersey at seventy five and a half They came in

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Speaker 2: at eighty five wins, so they exceeded expectations, and Pythag

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Speaker 2: says they should have been even better at that with

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Speaker 2: eighty eight. Sean, your projection is at eighty seven. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: Jersey Vegas, they've got this number out at eighty three

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Speaker 2: and a half. I think this is you know, saying

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Speaker 2: that maybe the Diamondbacks are a little bit disrespected in

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Speaker 2: the market right now.

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Speaker 1: So this team didn't underachieve at all last year. They

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Speaker 1: didn't overachieve. They pretty much hit what Pythag said that

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Speaker 1: they should. You know, they're a good team, and I

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Speaker 1: think they got a little bit better this offseason trading

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Speaker 1: for Startling Marte, adding Cole Calhoun to right field. Their

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Speaker 1: outfield was a little bit of a problem last year.

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Speaker 1: Let's cattle Marte's slide back down to second base, giving

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Speaker 1: them a pretty dynamic middle infield with him and nikamed

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Speaker 1: arguably the best defensive team in baseball over the past

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Speaker 1: few years. Last year, they only finished behind the Dodgers

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Speaker 1: and DRS plus one twelve. Two years ago, they were

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Speaker 1: plus one forty eight and the closest team to them

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Speaker 1: was plus one oh seven. And beyond that, it was

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Speaker 1: plus sixty seven, so miles and miles ahead of all

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Speaker 1: the other teams. Defensively interesting to see what they're going

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Speaker 1: to do with Robby Ray. I have heard that they're going

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Speaker 1: to trade him pretty much since the beginning, heard that

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Speaker 1: since last season. They have a ton of starting pitching depth,

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Speaker 1: lots of guys and the miners who are very intriguing

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Speaker 1: if you go by projections and based on my eye

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Speaker 1: test from last year, Zach Allen is their best starter

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Speaker 1: and he's only in the mix to be their number

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Speaker 1: five starter right now. He might not even make their

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Speaker 1: rotation at of spring training, So they're pretty loaded in

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Speaker 1: terms of pitching depth. I certainly think that they could

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Speaker 1: trade Ray and totally be fine and perhaps upgrade their

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Speaker 1: line up a little bit or just have more prospects.

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Speaker 1: So this is a pretty complete team. They just don't have,

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Speaker 1: you know, many true stars.

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Speaker 2: I would say, yeah, and Starling Marte is someone in

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Speaker 2: front of a fantasy league that I'm absolutely targeting. And

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Speaker 2: it's because people don't realize and according to park factors

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Speaker 2: and you know, P and C Park was not the

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Speaker 2: greatest place in the world to hit home runs, and

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Speaker 2: it's just a completely different story playing down in Arizona.

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Speaker 2: So he's somebody that I think is going to have

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Speaker 2: a better offensive impact playing for the Diamondbacks. And boy,

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Speaker 2: you do not want to be in this division a

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Speaker 2: team that has a high strikeout rate offensively against left handers,

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Speaker 2: because Bumgarner. You know, Robbie Ray if he does hang around.

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Speaker 2: I know that there was different stints last year where

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Speaker 2: we had had some bests on Meryl Kelly. There were

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Speaker 2: he did have a couple starts that I personally backed

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Speaker 2: him up in. But yeah, they're very deep starting staff

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Speaker 2: and there's no reason why this isn't one of the

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Speaker 2: teams theyre going to grab the wildcard spot. Can they

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Speaker 2: win the division? Highly unlikely, but they definitely have the talent,

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Speaker 2: I think, to push for that wildcard and get over

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Speaker 2: that eighty three and a half. We see Pakoda came

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Speaker 2: out at seventy nine. Now we mentioned the Pakoda because

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Speaker 2: people are familiar with Pokoda and Zips and the Davenport

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Speaker 2: and I think, you know, gravitate towards that they'll make

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Speaker 2: just autoblnd bets on the wind total based upon what

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Speaker 2: they see with Pakoda. And I think Pakoda coming out

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Speaker 2: at seventy nine may give this opportunity to get a

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Speaker 2: better number on the Diamondbacks before we actually get the

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Speaker 2: first pitch. Other than that, do you see anything from

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Speaker 2: a fantasy perspective that you're targeting.

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Speaker 3: You know, the closing role is interesting.

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Speaker 1: Archie Bradley was much better in the second half than

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Speaker 1: the first half, so he could be shaky and give

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Speaker 1: it up to round and they brought in from the

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Speaker 1: Astros or you know, potentially somebody else steps up and

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Speaker 1: grabs that. I just really like Gallon. I think he's

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Speaker 1: a guy worth pursuing. You know, he's not a super

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Speaker 1: sleeper and that you're going to get him for nothing,

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Speaker 1: but I think at the bottom of your draft he's

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Speaker 1: worth saving some money for or taken a round earlier

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Speaker 1: than you expect him to go. I just I think

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Speaker 1: that guy's an absolute stud. The Marlins traded him because

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Speaker 1: they thought he got to his peak pretty quickly, but

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Speaker 1: he's very polished and like I said, I think he's

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Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks.

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Speaker 2: You're already yeah, I completely agree and shout out to

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Speaker 2: Archie Bradley. He actually graduated from a high school that's

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Speaker 2: two miles here from my house, so he's super great

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Speaker 2: around town and even when kids recognize him, he's he's

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Speaker 2: a really nice guy. So our bets for the Arizona

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Speaker 2: Diamondbacks we definitely like the over. I'm going to wait

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Speaker 2: on this. Eighty three and a half. I think with

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Speaker 2: the Pakoda projection and the love for the Dodgers, I

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Speaker 2: think there could be a chance that maybe the eighty

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Speaker 2: three and a half comes down shop for the best line,

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Speaker 2: bet the best line, and so I think eighty two

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Speaker 2: and a half is if you can find that out

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Speaker 2: there at DraftKings and fan Duel MGM, that's what you

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Speaker 2: would want to bet. There are some World Series numbers

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Speaker 2: out there, and you know, once you make it to

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Speaker 2: the playoffs and you're in a wildcard situation, anything can happen.

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Speaker 2: Maybe we should get to the end of the podcast

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Speaker 2: to talk about the new rules for the playoffs because

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Speaker 2: I have some interesting opinions. I was kind of lukewarm

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Speaker 2: on it, then I was kind of mad about it,

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Speaker 2: and then I was like, well, I think this could work.

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Speaker 2: But I think any team that says we're going to

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Speaker 2: pick our opponent there and you're gonna end up getting beat,

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Speaker 2: I think that's the most hilarious thing about this, I

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Speaker 2: can't wait for the series where a team is like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: we definitely want to play you and they actually win.

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Speaker 2: We know how this is going to turn out. And

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Speaker 2: in general with Major League Baseball, wildcard teams always come

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Speaker 2: in hot. I mean, they've had to play a number

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Speaker 2: of games just to qualify to make the Wildcard. There

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Speaker 2: are so many examples of wildcard teams making it to

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Speaker 2: the World Series and winning the World Series that this

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Speaker 2: new playoff format is definitely one of the more interesting

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Speaker 2: things I've ever seen. The one thing I worry about

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Speaker 2: is I saw statistic that said if we went to

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Speaker 2: this playoff format in the last one hundred years, a

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Speaker 2: team with seventy nine wins would have made the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: and I think that downgrades an extremely long season. So

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Speaker 2: do you have any thoughts about the proposed Manfred playoff format?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think anytime you propose something that all the

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Speaker 1: players vehemently disagree with, that's probably a bad sign. Could

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Speaker 1: certainly be exciting, you know, TV networks all that. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure they love it for those reasons. More elimination games,

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Speaker 1: you know, certainly increases ratings. But at the same time,

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Speaker 1: there's a good Fangrass article describing how that's going to

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Speaker 1: decrease competitiveness, basically makes it less advantageous for winning your

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Speaker 1: division and decreases the value of competition. So, you know,

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Speaker 1: most most rules in life, most laws that are created

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Speaker 1: end up having opposite effects of what you intend them to.

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Speaker 1: Baseball needs to tread really carefully and making a huge

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Speaker 1: change like this their playoff format.

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Speaker 2: Well, I hate to agree with Trevor Bauer on anything,

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Speaker 2: but he's right about so many things, as far as

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Speaker 2: as far as MLB broadcasts and sharing clips about the

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Speaker 2: game and just just the way that the whole product

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Speaker 2: is handled with MLB is so much different than the

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Speaker 2: NBA and the NFL. And you can see the difference

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Speaker 2: with the growth, you know, the fan base that's maybe shrinking,

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Speaker 2: but it's definitely not growing. Davis HiT's one high, deep

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Speaker 2: to right field back goes bets up the unbelievable. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna move on to the Giants. I mentioned earlier about

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Speaker 2: the Giants that they had the best record, one of

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Speaker 2: the best records in like the last ten years of

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Speaker 2: one run ball games. They had a projected win total

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Speaker 2: from Vegas odds makers at seventy three and a half.

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Speaker 2: They had twenty nineteen wins, finished up at seventy seven.

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Speaker 2: Pathak says that they should have had seventy one, So

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Speaker 2: you can give some of that overachievement there in their

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Speaker 2: win total to the fact that they won so many

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Speaker 2: one run ball games. Westgate has them at sixty eight

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Speaker 2: and a half for their win total. Sean you have

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Speaker 2: him at sixty six, So there's definitely a Pakoda just

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Speaker 2: came out at sixty eight, which is right on the

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Speaker 2: number of the Vegas has it right now, But your

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Speaker 2: projection is at sixty six? So are we looking to

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Speaker 2: go under on these guys?

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Speaker 1: The more I look this roster, the more I get

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Speaker 1: skeptical about playing it under. They have added a decent

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Speaker 1: amount of veteran talent. They recently signed hundred pence. They

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Speaker 1: brought in some veteran pitchers like Kevin Gallasman Drew Smiley.

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Speaker 1: They did lose a lot Bumgarner being gone, Will Smith

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Speaker 1: be gone, probably their two best pitchers Steven Vote arguably

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Speaker 1: their best hitder last year, so they're in full rebuild mode. Still,

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Speaker 1: Posey's been a disaster in the past few years. Joey Bart,

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Speaker 1: who's their top prospect to replace him isn't going to

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Speaker 1: be up for next year most likely, but they have

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Speaker 1: a decent amount of pitching depth. I trust Ad to have,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of a plan in place. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he was the most after executive and baseball arguably when

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Speaker 1: the Giants pursued him from the Dodgers.

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Speaker 3: So at this point, at sixty eight and a half,

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Speaker 3: the value might be gone from it.

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Speaker 1: I believe that number opened a little bit over seventy

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Speaker 1: and that might have been the time to pounce. So

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Speaker 1: slight value maybe or a lean at this point, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's substantial or actionable value on it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's going to be one of these seasons where

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Speaker 2: Drew Smiley actually isn't hurt and he can he can

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Speaker 2: be fantastic. He can be an All star. He's got

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Speaker 2: the stuff, he's got the talent to do that. So

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Speaker 2: that was a really good signing for them. You know,

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Speaker 2: we'll look wait and see on the number. The value

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Speaker 2: may be out of it now that it's around sixty

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Speaker 2: eight and a half. You know, from a fantasy perspective,

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Speaker 2: considering this team is in a rebuild, do you see

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Speaker 2: anything from that standpoint besides Smiley, who you know I targeted.

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Speaker 2: Do you see anyone else on the roster we're taking

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Speaker 2: value in sort of you know, their adp with certain drafts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Mauricia and deer Bowen was a highly sought after

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Speaker 1: infielder for a little bit with the Brewers. He's on

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Speaker 1: the Giants roster now, so he could be a fifteen

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Speaker 1: to fifteen guy over the course of full season if

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Speaker 1: he gets the f bats.

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Speaker 3: They don't really have a ton of pay that I'm

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Speaker 3: interested in.

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Speaker 1: They have, you know, a bunch of guys in Triple

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Speaker 1: A who've been up and down, Logan Web guys like that,

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Speaker 1: but you know, overall they're bullpens kind of a disaster.

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Speaker 1: So there's really no closer candidates I'm going to be

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Speaker 1: trying to pursue. Johnny Quato showed some stuff at the

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Speaker 1: end of last year that might have been intriguing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's still Johnny Quaido. You know who knows he's a pitcher,

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Speaker 1: not a thrower. But overall, no, not a team I'm

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Speaker 1: particularly interested from a fantasy perspective. I mean, the Giants

378
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Speaker 1: struggled to score run, so I think if anything, you

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Speaker 1: have to look towards their pitchers.

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Speaker 2: Hey, thankless job wallfly ball left field, Brown getting chase

381
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Speaker 2: at the wall, leaks and makes the catch. Moving on

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Speaker 2: in the NL West, we're going to go to Colorado. Colorado.

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Speaker 2: Last year they had a Vegas win total set at

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Speaker 2: eighty four and a half. They only came up with

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Speaker 2: seventy one wins, massively underachieved from what the projections were

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Speaker 2: from Vegas. PATHAG says that they should have gotten seventy

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Speaker 2: one wins. We can see right now the Westgate has

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Speaker 2: them at seventy three and a half. But Coda just

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Speaker 2: got released at seventy seven. Sean, You've got him projected

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Speaker 2: at seventy three, right where their current number is. So

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Speaker 2: you would think that there's no value on this team whatsoever,

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Speaker 2: and how much of that value is actually tied into

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Speaker 2: Nolan Ronardo, which who has one of the craziest home

394
00:17:13,600 --> 00:17:16,480
Speaker 2: road splits in offensive you know stats that I've seen

395
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Speaker 2: since you know, maybe Larry Walker was playing there, or

396
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Speaker 2: maybe some of the other former Rockies were playing in

397
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Speaker 2: corus Field. He doesn't have as much value or near

398
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Speaker 2: as much value as the offensive numbers that he puts

399
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Speaker 2: up when he plays in Cores.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's fair. I mean, a lot of

401
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 1: his values tied up in defense as well. He's he's

402
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Speaker 1: a fantastic two way player seven the ale pot. I

403
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Speaker 1: think Chapman's a better defender than him, and numbers back

404
00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 1: it up. But Aeronado's story, that's an incredible left side

405
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Speaker 1: of the enfield, arguably as good as anyone. They didn't

406
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Speaker 1: really add anything this offseason, and but I didn't really

407
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Speaker 1: add anything. I mean, they only made minor league signingsball

408
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Speaker 1: though him and as is back in their minor league,

409
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Speaker 1: so that's fun. Hopefully he gets his spots start back

410
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Speaker 1: in the majors and we get some nostalgia with this

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Speaker 1: cy young year. But they didn't lose anything substantially there.

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Speaker 1: So this is pretty much the same team that they

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Speaker 1: had last year, just with maybe some young players add

414
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Speaker 1: to the roster. You know, David Dahl played the most

415
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Speaker 1: games that he's ever played last year. Continue to develop,

416
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Speaker 1: Brian McMahon, continue to develop at second base.

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Speaker 3: Their their lineup has potential. They have a lot of guys.

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Speaker 1: Who can hit, a lot of guys with good hit tools.

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Speaker 1: They've just continued to invest first round picks and in

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Speaker 1: their pitching department and had a rotation I believe, full

421
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Speaker 1: of first round picks the past couple of years, and

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Speaker 1: nothing is panned out. John Gray had a good year

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Speaker 1: last year. Marquez can bounced back his peripheral suggest that

424
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Speaker 1: he can. But Kyle Freeland fell off the absolute face

425
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Speaker 1: of the earth. So getting guys like that at the

426
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Speaker 1: bottom of their rotation back healthy and back performing is

427
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Speaker 1: key to them doing anything. They have a lot of

428
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Speaker 1: money tied up in Aeronato and Charlie Blackman. They can't

429
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Speaker 1: really upgrade their roster. Their bullpen's not fantastic, so you

430
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Speaker 1: know they're they're really relying on breakouts from guys like

431
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Speaker 1: Sam Illiard or Garrett Hampson to bring them to the

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Speaker 1: next level.

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Speaker 2: David dall Was had a major back injury and came

434
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,840
Speaker 2: back from that, and so he's finally playing enough games

435
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 2: and producing like you would expect from a Rockies outfielder.

436
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 2: Kyle Freel was money two years ago. You could back

437
00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 2: him with your money every time he took the mound,

438
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:06,040
Speaker 2: and you know that just didn't show up at all

439
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 2: last year. Pla Coda is really high on these guys

440
00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 2: at seventy seven, and I think a lot of that

441
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,480
Speaker 2: has to deal with the offense and Charlie Blackman's still

442
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 2: being there. I have to wonder, like if they're going

443
00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:16,440
Speaker 2: to be sellers of the deadline or if this is

444
00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 2: a team that's going to be six games out and

445
00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,160
Speaker 2: still think that they can get into the wildcard race.

446
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,200
Speaker 2: Do you have any feel on whether they're going to

447
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 2: be buyers or sellers no matter what their standings are.

448
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 1: It seems, based on the way the Ironatto conversation has trended,

449
00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 1: that they want to be sellers, but then the owner

450
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,400
Speaker 1: comes out and says that they're going to win ninety

451
00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:33,679
Speaker 1: five games or ninety.

452
00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 3: Seven games, and who really knows.

453
00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 1: Should they certainly should be sellers compared to how the

454
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 1: rest of the division is stacking up. When we haven't

455
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 1: talked about the Padres yet, but the Padres and Dbacks

456
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,359
Speaker 1: clearly seem like they're ahead of them. I just don't

457
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 1: know what you know pieces they have that they could

458
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: sell off that are so viable or that are so

459
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: interesting other than Aaronatto and Aeronatto is a huge contract

460
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 1: attached to him. Charlie Blackman is a huge contract attached

461
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 1: to him. They're not going to be able to move him.

462
00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 1: Daniel Murphy hasn't hit well since his MICROFRACTURINGEE surgery, so

463
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 1: I don't really know what pieces they have that are

464
00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 1: so valued other than potentially Gray or Marquez moving them

465
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 1: out of Colorado. So really the Rockies are kind of

466
00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:11,360
Speaker 1: in a tough spot here for the next few years

467
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,119
Speaker 1: while they have all this money sat up in the

468
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: SCPI guys, he.

469
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: Hits one high toward left field. Back near the wall

470
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 2: is Sam a pack by Griffey. To round out the

471
00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,720
Speaker 2: NL West, we will go with the team that everybody

472
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: had an over on. Everybody had maybe a World Series

473
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 2: future on everybody was talking about, and that is the

474
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 2: San Diego Padres. San Diego Padres, Whereas I don't want

475
00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 2: to call them a dark horse, but at least they

476
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 2: were a team that was voted most likely to exceed expectations.

477
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 2: Last year. They had a Vegas win total set at

478
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 2: seventy eight and a half. They came in at seventy wins.

479
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,880
Speaker 2: Pathag says that they should have once had seventy wins

480
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 2: right now, Westgate has them at eighty two and a half.

481
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,360
Speaker 2: Sean your projection has them in eighty four, while Pakoda

482
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 2: just came in fresh with a seventy nine number, which

483
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 2: they generate a few under betting tickets. You know, they're

484
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 2: trying to grow. The kids on the farm are getting older.

485
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 2: They needed some clubhouse leadership. That's why they went out

486
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:09,879
Speaker 2: and got Eric Hosmer. And I know people were upset

487
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 2: when they went out and got Haws because of his

488
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: defensive metrics and you know, but he is a clubhouse guy,

489
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 2: and they have a lot of young talent and they're

490
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: trying to put something together here. But seventy wins last

491
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: year just didn't get it done. You know, I think

492
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: it's worth mentioning that Manny Machado had maybe one of

493
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 2: the worst seasons from a fantasy perspective. He was one

494
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 2: of the biggest reasons why I probably didn't win my

495
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 2: leagues outright, is because it's a guy that you draft

496
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: in round one and round two and he just completely

497
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 2: did not live up to anything in his first year.

498
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:38,199
Speaker 2: Could be league switched from the Orioles. Not sure what

499
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 2: is it you see with the Padres this year.

500
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: Yes, Adrian Pereler has never been afraid to shoff up

501
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: his roster, but since he got there in twenty fifteen

502
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 1: when they made the up in trade the Campbell trade.

503
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 1: That was the best season that they've had his entire

504
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: tenure there, so they completely broke down reloaded after that.

505
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:54,680
Speaker 1: They were supposed to gain a little bit of ground

506
00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 1: last year and didn't really do that. They fell flat.

507
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: When Tatis Junior was in the lineup, they were pretty

508
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: excellent team in an above average offense. When he was

509
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 1: out of the lineup, they weren't. He has a lot

510
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,479
Speaker 1: of tools. Defensively, really struggled with his throwing accuracy last year,

511
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: which is why the metric dingdom. But I think he

512
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 1: can make improvements in those areas and in terms of offense,

513
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 1: he's the thirty thirty talent probably starting this year. So

514
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:21,439
Speaker 1: Tatis Machado again, another fantastic left side of the infield.

515
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 1: I think Machado will bounced back. He's bounced back from

516
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 1: four years before. They just have a ton of prospects

517
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: that are all coming up at the same time, especially

518
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 1: in pitching. But they added Tommy fam this offseason. It

519
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 1: was kind of a mutually beneficial trade if you think

520
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 1: about it, in terms of the two trades, with the

521
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:41,439
Speaker 1: Padres getting Fam for essentially Renfro and Margo. They have

522
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,640
Speaker 1: different needs. These two teams and San Diego needed one

523
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 1: singular player instead of needing to keep platuning guys. But

524
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 1: adding Pomerantz to the bullpen, Emilio pa gone to the

525
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 1: bullpen for Margo. They have one of the best bullpens

526
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:55,480
Speaker 1: in baseball. Are e really the best bullpen of the

527
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: National League. Chris Paddock really showed some good stuff last year.

528
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: They have tons of pitching prospects are coming up. McKenzie

529
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,919
Speaker 1: gores the number four prospect in baseball. You know, Michelle

530
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:06,919
Speaker 1: Baiaz will probably get moved to the bullpen. He's a

531
00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: huge Cuban pitcher. But you know, they just have plenty

532
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: of pieces, plenty of dudes who threw a really hard

533
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: Denison one. Mett broke out a little bit of last

534
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 1: year forty percent swinging strike right. I think he could

535
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: be a top of the rotation arms. So a lot of

536
00:23:18,600 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 1: interesting pieces on this team. They have an inexperienced manager,

537
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:24,959
Speaker 1: so I'll be curious to see how he handles this team,

538
00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 1: especially in the early going.

539
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Garrett Richards, Joey Lachezi, Denielson Lament. I mean, these

540
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 2: are all guys that have a higher ceiling than what

541
00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 2: they performed at and definitely could be, you know, game

542
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 2: changers for San Diego in for the amount of wins

543
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 2: that they have. Kirbyate's one of the best closers in

544
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 2: the game by far. Craig Stam Indeed, I like Louis

545
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,680
Speaker 2: Prodomo is still in the you know, back there because

546
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 2: he kind of fills in as a fifth guy in

547
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: the rotation. He can do long relief, he can do

548
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,600
Speaker 2: a lot of different things for them. Perdomo has He's

549
00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 2: one of those pitchers that will have a good three

550
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: or four starts that you can back him in sometime

551
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 2: in August or July. So yeah, this is a team

552
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 2: I like a lot. And I'm not sure if it's

553
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: just the people who forgot about them or why Pakota

554
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 2: is you know, not as high on their projections and

555
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 2: you know, after last season. But I think this is

556
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 2: a team that I possibly will look to have an

557
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 2: over on. I do like the Padres. I think they're

558
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,640
Speaker 2: on the up. It's really hard because I know we're

559
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: going to get to the Cincinnati Rhoads, but teams that

560
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: are loaded with former Royals, I just love to back

561
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 2: them for a reason. For a reason.

562
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 1: So it's interesting too, because Pikoda projected all four teams

563
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: besides the Dodgers in the NNAL West under five hundred,

564
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,480
Speaker 1: and that just seems like that's not going to be

565
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: the case. You know, these these teams seem to stand

566
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 1: to improve Arizona and San Diego specifically, so if both

567
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:38,919
Speaker 1: finish under five hundred, I think it'd be pretty surprised

568
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: at the end of the year.

569
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree, And we'll see how the Giants

570
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: do with how good they did in one run ball

571
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 2: games last year, and where the Padres go after disappointing

572
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: from what they were projected at last year. Do you

573
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 2: see anything from a division perspective that would get you

574
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:53,400
Speaker 2: to lay some money down.

575
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 3: Not really.

576
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: You know, I saw a DBAX at sixty six to

577
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,959
Speaker 1: one right after the Marte trade, so I hit that.

578
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: I like they're over at bit. But beyond that, the

579
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 1: n West is the one division I guess, along with

580
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: a last the two favorites that seem too substantial. You know,

581
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of taste on the Rays, but

582
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: I don't think there's anybody in the NST who's going

583
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: to directly challenge the Dodgers. The Dodgers is just better

584
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 1: in each category. Basically, you know, they have the depth

585
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: and the quality where Arizona has depth, so they can

586
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,240
Speaker 1: thrive on depth in the regular season. But I don't

587
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: see them outclassings.

588
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: I agree. Let's go to the vision that generally has

589
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of teams that are consistently in the race,

590
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 2: could tie each other and have some crazy extra playoff games.

591
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 2: And that's the NL Central. You start placing yourself. That's

592
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 2: the Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs. They've been decking it out. The

593
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 2: Reds got better. I thought the Pirates would be getting better.

594
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: They're actually getting worse. This is a division that's always tight.

595
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 2: We're going to start off with the Saint Louis Cardinals.

596
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: You know, last year, Vegas at their win total at

597
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: eighty eight. They exceeded that with ninety one wins. Pathak

598
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 2: said that they should have had ninety two. Westgate right

599
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,479
Speaker 2: now has the Saint Louis Cardinals at eighty seven and

600
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,359
Speaker 2: a half. Sean you have them projected at eighty five.

601
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 2: Pakoda came in at eighty. I don't know if I've

602
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 2: seen a Saint Louis Cardinals projection that low over a

603
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:19,679
Speaker 2: number of years. I'm not really sure. Any moves that

604
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 2: they've made, you know, should have them eleven wins less

605
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: in a projection than what they achieved last year. What

606
00:26:26,280 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 2: do you see with the Cardinals.

607
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it wasn't even just the coda that caming

608
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: Low Davenports has them at seventy nine. Fanggrafts I believe

609
00:26:33,320 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 1: has them at around eighty. So pretty much the entire

610
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 1: market of projections other than myself, as the Cardinals, you know,

611
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: around a five hundred club.

612
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: I think it's just a step back in general for

613
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 3: the NL Central.

614
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: Nobody made substantial moves to upgrade themselves other than the Reds.

615
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: You know, the Cardinals lost Ozuna, made some trades with

616
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: the Rays to bring in prospects like Matthew libertore So

617
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,199
Speaker 1: it's it's interesting how they've shreaded water. They don't have

618
00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: the most impressed of rotation behind Flaherty. I think this guy,

619
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: Kwang Young Kim, who they brought in from Korea could

620
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: be really interesting. Actually, he was considered the best pitcher

621
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 1: in Korea. He seems really polished. He improved his velocity

622
00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: after twenty seventeen. He and Tommy John surgery for it

623
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: was a pretty cool fourkball. So I like when these

624
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 1: teams go out and bring in these guys from Korea

625
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: and Japan who major leaguers haven't seen before, especially the

626
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,719
Speaker 1: first time through the league. They tend to have an

627
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: advantage and can be interesting to bet on. Cardinals have

628
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: some depth in the miners. They they have some interesting prospects.

629
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 1: Curious to see what they do with Alex Reyes, what

630
00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 1: they do with Carlos Martinez this year. So they have

631
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 1: some question marks. This is a team has overchieved my

632
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:40,959
Speaker 1: entire lifetime. You know, they always seem to exceed expectations.

633
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,479
Speaker 1: And I wouldn't be suppressed at all if they won

634
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 1: the NL Central again, despite what prognosticaters you're calling for.

635
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 2: So they're going out and trying to trade for one

636
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 2: of the best third basemen, you know, with Nolan Arnando,

637
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,480
Speaker 2: and you know they already have Matt Carpenter there, but

638
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 2: he's versatile, he could play anywhere in the infield. Shouldn't

639
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 2: they be trying to trade for somebody in the bullpen?

640
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: This bullpen is just a a long list of vanilla, right,

641
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: I mean, is this the biggest need for the Cardinals

642
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 2: and something you think they'll go after the deadline arguably. Yeah.

643
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 1: I mean they have some guys like I mentioned Carlos

644
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 1: Martinez Alex Reyes who they could potentially turn into relievers.

645
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 1: That's something the Cardinals have always excelled at, especially when

646
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 1: they first bring up starting pitchers. They like to roll

647
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 1: them through the bullpen first for a turn, just to

648
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: get them used to the big leagues, which I think

649
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: is how most young pitchers should be handled and something

650
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: other organizations should model themselves on. But I can't disagree

651
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: Andrew Miller's control has going to disaster for two straight years.

652
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,239
Speaker 3: I kind of like Giovanni Diegos a little bit.

653
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: I think he's interesting, but Martinez was shaking the closer's role.

654
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: Adding some depth to that bullpen is probably in need.

655
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: I think their outfield is a little bit of concern

656
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: as well.

657
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: I rostered Harrison Bader for a full month to start

658
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,160
Speaker 2: last season. I don't think I've seen worse stats from

659
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 2: a kid coming up through I think his average was

660
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: below one hundred through the first month of the season.

661
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: But he's all defense.

662
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 2: He's all defense, you know, not A he's got a

663
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 2: I remember, for the number of Cardinals games I went to,

664
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: he's got some good looking socks and probably impresses the

665
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,320
Speaker 2: ladies a little bit, but his batting average was pretty horrific.

666
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 2: We'll roll right into the Milwaukee Brewers. Last year, they

667
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: finished with eighty nine wins that exceeded the Vegas win

668
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 2: total of eighty six and a half, says Pathak. Says

669
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: that they should have had eighty one wins, eight games

670
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 2: lower than what they actually finished at, which says that

671
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 2: they over achieved quite a bit. Westgate has them at

672
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 2: eighty two and a half. For the Milwaukee Brewers, Sean,

673
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 2: you've got him projected at eighty two, so it looks

674
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,760
Speaker 2: like there's no value here. Pakoda just freshly came out

675
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 2: at seventy nine. But like we said, that's just the

676
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 2: division in general. But again here we have another projection

677
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: of a team under five hundred. What do you see

678
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 2: with the Milwaukee Brewers.

679
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so the Brewers are always a tough team to

680
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: project because they played the games so differently than everybody else.

681
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: They deploy their bullpens so aggressively, they shift so aggressively

682
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: out a roster Toner over this offseason, bringing Luce Arias

683
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: in a trade oft sale Garcias trading for it Eric

684
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 1: Soguard signing justin Smoke, so they have a lot of depth.

685
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: But they did lose Gerndald, they lost me Stokas, so

686
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: they lost some higher end players. You know, they have

687
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: some nice bats and it's going to be interesting to

688
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 1: see how yell At recovers from his broken kneecap.

689
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 3: Sports are that he's fine.

690
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: He says he's not limited in spring training, so it's

691
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 1: pretty encouraging. But you know, if you're a fantasy player,

692
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: do you expect him to run and steal thirty bases

693
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: this year? Maybe not. The Brewers of Council send guys

694
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 1: a lot, so obviously Garcia for that reason, could be

695
00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: a good stolen base threat. Maybe pick up a few

696
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: extra steals, and you'd expect. You know, the real question

697
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 1: marks are just how do they compile their innings? Who

698
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: do they get them from. I don't really see a

699
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: pitcher on this roster who I would project for more

700
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 1: than one hundred and forty one hundred and fifty innings.

701
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: Brandon Woodruff his quality, Adrian Howser's quality. Like, they have

702
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,000
Speaker 1: some good guys, but Josh Hader faded late in the year,

703
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: which is why they were looking to trade him earlier

704
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: this offseason and still may you know this was a

705
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: team that was basically treading water up until the trade deadline.

706
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 1: It seemed like they were going to sell and then

707
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:11,560
Speaker 1: they went in a little run clearly defied pithag almost

708
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 1: won the Wildcard games, should have over the Nats until

709
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: Hayter Blewett, So who knows, Maybe they want on a

710
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 1: run and we look at this whole thing differently. The

711
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: Nats don't win the World Series, the cheat Nastros win

712
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,959
Speaker 1: another World Series and this thing is even worse. So

713
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: Milwaukee is an interesting team to watch. They have some

714
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: interesting players. The fact that they keep rebuilding this thing

715
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: with spare parts too is pretty cool to see.

716
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, definitely, And there's a lot of question marks on

717
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: this team. For me, like Brandon Woodworth is a converted closer,

718
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: and I know that he was on an innings cap

719
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,480
Speaker 2: I think last year, and it'd be introducing if he

720
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: has any kind of innings cap on him this season.

721
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 2: He's got the stuff, but for me, when I was

722
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: betting on him last year, it seemed like his second

723
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 2: or third time through the rotation, hitters picked up on

724
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 2: his stuff pretty quickly. And you know, if you look

725
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 2: at the rest of us, does Cory Knable have anything

726
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 2: left in that arm that was magical for a while

727
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 2: before reset in on him? Hater? We don't know if

728
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 2: he's going to bounce back whatsoever, especially and where is

729
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 2: the psyche of the kid after giving up that blown save?

730
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: And you know, does Lorenzo Caine have any juice in

731
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: them to still steal twenty bases? Avis el Garcia was

732
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: you know, someone where we didn't know where his ceiling

733
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: was as a prospect, and Ryan Brown is still playing

734
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: quality baseball.

735
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 1: Might be more valuable fantasy guys just got less of

736
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: a full tune partner.

737
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, completely. So this is a team that's patchwork

738
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: putting it together. Don't count them out. We're not definitely

739
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: not going to fade these guys, but who knows. I

740
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 2: think they're one of these teams that could swing either

741
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 2: ways at the trade deadline where they might want to

742
00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: sell the house or they might want to buy something.

743
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: So they'll be excited no matter what. For sure, off

744
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 2: the green light they do. When he hits it in

745
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 2: the air to center field. Kenny lofton trying to time

746
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: the jump in back catch. Let's move into the Cubs,

747
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 2: which was my greatest My greatest victory of twenty nineteen

748
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 2: was getting as much money as I possibly could on

749
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: the under on the Cubs last year. It says here

750
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 2: in Vegas win total projection last year is eighty eight

751
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 2: and a half. At one time was at ninety two

752
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 2: before I took a trip to Vegas and went to

753
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 2: Caesars for a couple hours. They finished up at eighty

754
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 2: four wins. The fact says they should have had ninety.

755
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 2: So this year they are at eighty four and a

756
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: half at Westgate. Sean, your number is right on the

757
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 2: dot be where the Cubs currently are. You're at eighty four.

758
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: It doesn't look like many of the other projection systems

759
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 2: differ that much. At eighty two for Davenport, in eighty

760
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 2: five for Pakoda. There's a lot of key losses going

761
00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: on here. It just seems I don't know if it's

762
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,959
Speaker 2: general management. I don't know if there's attitude in the clubhouse.

763
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 2: There's a lot to talk about here because do Chris Bryant,

764
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 2: Does Chris Bryant want to be there? Does Anthony Rizzo

765
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 2: want to be there? Like I just felt like there

766
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 2: was some discomfort between whether it was Madden or was

767
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 2: the GM, or it was the players, or maybe the

768
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,040
Speaker 2: players are tired of, you know, having day games and

769
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: not a practice facility. There's a lot going on here.

770
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 2: What do you see from that perspective?

771
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Madden had an issue with the organization

772
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: and then Brian had a separate one. I mean Brian's

773
00:33:57,800 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 1: was more public because they held him back with this

774
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: his time. Initially, he had filed an appeal recently to

775
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 1: try to get that overturned so that he would be

776
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 1: eligible for free agency next year. Cubs ended up winning that,

777
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 1: so that needed to be established before he could possibly

778
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:12,799
Speaker 1: be traded. Just because teams are trading for him need

779
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,120
Speaker 1: to know whether he has one or.

780
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 3: Two years left on his deal.

781
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: YEP.

782
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 1: So I certainly still expect him to get traded. Whether

783
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 1: it's this offseason seems unlikely at this point, before the

784
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: trade deadline more likely, or perhaps even next offseason, right

785
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: before he is one year left on his deal. Just

786
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 1: like the movie bit Bets trade kind of went down.

787
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 1: They need to sign him, Rizzo. I believe Contreras and

788
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 1: John Lester all at the same time. I think you

789
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 1: can throw a bias in there. As well. They're going

790
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: to have to choose and narrow down who they want

791
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 1: to keep. It seems like he might have plateaued as

792
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: a player. He's an excellent player. He's a really good hitter.

793
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 1: He's been a negative defender for the past three years

794
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 1: at third base. It's part of the reason why Madden

795
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: shifted him to the outfield so frequently. So this is

796
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: the time to trade him if he is another poor

797
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 1: offensive showing his value is only going to client. My

798
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 1: issue with this team is their rotation. Their rotation's really

799
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,919
Speaker 1: old Kintana, Hendrix, Leicester. They're all like four point twenty

800
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: five expected era guys, you know, nothing impressive. I think

801
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: Darvish is gonna have a good year. Darbish was excellent

802
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: in the second half of last year. He had a

803
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 1: two thirty seven x fifth in the second half. So

804
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 1: for him in drafts, you know, he always kind of frustrates.

805
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 1: I've been a Darbish fan his whole career, though, so

806
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: worth giving another shot after the performance he put up.

807
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 1: But this bullpen on this team is a disaster, you know.

808
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: Craig Kimberro, I don't know what happened with him last year.

809
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: After nobody would sign him and they came back, maybe

810
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 1: not having a spring or harmed him. But I took

811
00:35:38,440 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: the underred here eighty eight and a half right away.

812
00:35:41,120 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: It's down eighty four. I'm not going to touch it

813
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 1: at this point. But they were expected to win ninety

814
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: two games last year based upon pithag like they could

815
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: certainly exceed the expectations. There's plenty of talent on this team.

816
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 1: They just don't seem to have the momentum and the

817
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,959
Speaker 1: intention on improving themselves.

818
00:35:58,320 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 2: I don't know, maybe it just seems like there's different

819
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 2: pieces of the organization that just plain old don't like

820
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 2: each other. Now, with David Ross coming in, you know,

821
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: as the manager, I think that's you know, I think

822
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 2: that's a big deal. I think that's a big thing

823
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: for the clubhouse since he's you know, get the good

824
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 2: vibes going in the dugout. But I don't know what

825
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 2: to do with the Cubs. I think the value, I mean,

826
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: you can't really take an under on eighty four and

827
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 2: a half because they have the talent to be a

828
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 2: ninety win ball club. So for me, that that's what

829
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: makes it tough to project these guys. You know, it's

830
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: definitely no play for me? Is it a no play

831
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 2: for you? Because I think the next tea is a

832
00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:28,479
Speaker 2: four and a half.

833
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 1: Certainly, yeah, I don't think you can do anything with.

834
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 2: That and fuddal Let's see the air center field, Gomez

835
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: at the wall, Gomez leaps, Let's get to the let's

836
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 2: get to the part of the podcast where I think

837
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 2: there is going to be a play that'll be on

838
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Reds. The Cincinnati Reds finished twenty nineteen with

839
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 2: a win total of seventy five wins. Vegas projected them

840
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 2: at seventy eight and a half, so they came up

841
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,160
Speaker 2: a little bit short. The Thag says that they should

842
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 2: have won eighty so maybe a little luck they're involved,

843
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: but why they didn't get to their win total. They're

844
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 2: currently sitting in a US get at eighty three and

845
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: a half, which I don't think is high enough. I

846
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,880
Speaker 2: think it's you could shop around. I think there's some

847
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,560
Speaker 2: other places where you may be able to get a

848
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 2: tattler than eighty three and a half. But Sean, you

849
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 2: project him at eighty six, just like the other projection

850
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,399
Speaker 2: systems that came out. Where do you want to start

851
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 2: with the Cincinnati Reds? Do you want to go with

852
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: what they've brought in? Do we want to go with

853
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 2: who is excelling in their career? You want to start

854
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: with the negative? I think Joey Vodo is getting old

855
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 2: and he doesn't get home runs, and he doesn't his

856
00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,719
Speaker 2: OBP might take a dive like what should what should

857
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 2: we nitpick about these guys before we say the good stuff?

858
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:33,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could start with Voto. I mean, he's always

859
00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 1: been one of my favorite players. The back, control of

860
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 1: the eye, the attitude never gets up in that bat.

861
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: He's declined from a six and a half win player

862
00:37:40,680 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: to a half win player in a two year span,

863
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 1: which is obviously extremely concerning. He's been a negative defender

864
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: for a few years, lessoned athleticisms. So if they have

865
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 1: a hole on their roster and glaring weakness, it's him,

866
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: which is surprising and unfortunate because he spent so much

867
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 1: time biding until they had another competitive team around him. So,

868
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:00,799
Speaker 1: I you know, as a baseball and I'm hoping that

869
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 1: he hasn't bounced back ear If they're going to be

870
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: a good team, it'd be a shame to see him

871
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: not be a part bit. You know, he doesn't even

872
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 1: need to get hits. He could just come see a

873
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 1: fifteen bitch at bat and not pop up and he

874
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 1: can call it a day.

875
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 2: Joey Vato is the new Shawn Casey.

876
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: People aren't aware of the guy's popped up like under

877
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 1: five times in his entire career. It's one of the

878
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 1: most fascinating in best baseball stats to have that much

879
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:22,759
Speaker 1: back control, to be able to not pop up for

880
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 1: several years in a row. It's just I don't have

881
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: any sort of comparison for it in any other sport.

882
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: So let's let me set us up for why we

883
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 2: like this team. The Reds made it clear. Their management

884
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:35,720
Speaker 2: came out and said that we're going to be buyers,

885
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 2: and there's not a lot of teams in Major League

886
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 2: Baseball that make it very public. Here we are with Moose,

887
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 2: Nick Cassilanos. You know, there's some other additions here I'll

888
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 2: let you talk about. But I love the moves that

889
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,879
Speaker 2: they made. Now, defensively, I'm a little nervous, but from

890
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:50,840
Speaker 2: an offensive standpoint, I love this team.

891
00:38:51,200 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, until Suarez.

892
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:56,600
Speaker 1: Suarez injured himself in a pool, which is kind of

893
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: similar to the Yo nassessments falling in a hole because

894
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: to get scared by a boor injury. So I don't

895
00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: really know what to make the Suarez Puol injury, but

896
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:07,360
Speaker 1: I'm worried that he injured his shoulder and that he

897
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: might not have his forty nine home runs worth the

898
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:10,640
Speaker 1: power when he comes back.

899
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 3: So that's something to keep in mind.

900
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: They just resigned Derek Dtrich to replace him temporarily, which

901
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: I like in terms of a fit around that. That

902
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 1: means that Castellanos probably isn't going to get shifted to

903
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: third base, which is good. He'll stay in the outfield

904
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: for the time being. You mentioned cast aanas in MOUs

905
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,880
Speaker 1: so I think. I think cast Aanis is sitting on

906
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: a career year. He had forty expected home runs last year,

907
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:36,360
Speaker 1: finally got out of Detroit started hitting them with authority

908
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,360
Speaker 1: in Wrigley also seemed excited to be part of a

909
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 1: Pennant race. So caste Aanos, not only from a motivation standpoint,

910
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 1: but also from a park standpoint, from a expected stats standpoint,

911
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 1: seems like he's sitting on a career year. So if

912
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: you want like the longest long shot MVP bets, put

913
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: a few bucks on it.

914
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,080
Speaker 2: I'll say from a points league standpoint, from like a

915
00:39:57,160 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 2: roto and a points league standpoint. He hits a lot

916
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 2: of doubles too, So this is a guy ops wise,

917
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 2: if you do OBP or you do ops, this is

918
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:08,759
Speaker 2: definitely his year. This is somebody that I think at

919
00:40:08,760 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 2: the draft table people are going to know he's going

920
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: to be good, but I think he's going to be

921
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 2: worth it for you to go an extra round or

922
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: spend the extra bucks in an auction.

923
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 1: He has one hundred and four doubles the past two years,

924
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: so that's just I love guys who spread out the power.

925
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: You know, there's guys who get thirteen home runs and

926
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: forty home runs whatever. Guys who's who have the stat

927
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:28,879
Speaker 1: line of power with the forty doubles, ten trip les,

928
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: twenty five homers like those are the guys I think

929
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 1: can sustain their power growth going forward because they have

930
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 1: it in variety areas and spread the ball, you know.

931
00:40:36,800 --> 00:40:39,439
Speaker 1: In terms of questions with this team, so they signed

932
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 1: Shogo Akiyama from Japan. He was one of the top

933
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 1: position players in Japan for a long time. Defensive first,

934
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 1: really good speed. It's going to be interesting to see

935
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 1: how well he hits. Talked about coming over to the Rays.

936
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: You know, these these Japanese guys like Otani have been

937
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 1: able to hit in recent years. So how good is

938
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 1: Akayama curious to see that? Nick Senzel, what do they

939
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 1: do them defensively? Where they they stick them? It's about

940
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:06,240
Speaker 1: ten percent below average during his rookie year, scratch center fielder.

941
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 1: I think they should try him a shortstop for the

942
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 1: gallus could glove. But if they can upgrade their shortstop

943
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: spot with a rope bat, that's a huge difference. You know,

944
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: in Senzel doesn't really have a spot in center field

945
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 1: with Agayama there, So you know the reds we we

946
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 1: hit for the division.

947
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 3: I have a small World Series feature on them.

948
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,200
Speaker 1: I think they're plus four hundred right now for the

949
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 1: division at William Hill. I think that's extremely edable. Three

950
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 1: different projecting systems, including my own, all have them as

951
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: the division leader. So their substantial value on this team

952
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,800
Speaker 1: to win their division and be you know, the anal

953
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 1: central favor.

954
00:41:38,560 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 3: We didn't even mention the coaching changes they brought in.

955
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: Kyle Baye from Drive Line worked directly with Trevor Bauer

956
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 1: and all their minor league pitchers. They added their new

957
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,839
Speaker 1: pitching coach for the Brewers, who was the one who

958
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,000
Speaker 1: helped Wade Miley developed his cutter. They brought in Miley

959
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:55,240
Speaker 1: this offseason. So this team at a variety of levels,

960
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 1: is not only improving itself but also catering to the

961
00:41:57,800 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 1: players that they have on it, which I think is

962
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,720
Speaker 1: really interesting. Thirty year GM, you know, kind of getting

963
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: his plan folly in play. So they seem smart about

964
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,720
Speaker 1: what they're doing. They've done a great job at finding

965
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 1: pitchers even before body got there, and I think they're

966
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,240
Speaker 1: going to continue to improve them and get better outside

967
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 1: the organization.

968
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Anthony D. Scal Anthony D. Scalfini just call

969
00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 2: Tony Disco.

970
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 3: He's Tony Disco.

971
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,879
Speaker 2: Tony Disco, I think maybe one of the best fits

972
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 2: starters in all of Major League Baseball. I mean, he's

973
00:42:29,239 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 2: somebody you back with your money. He's somebody you draft

974
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 2: in fantasy. This team was the very first purchase that

975
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:38,520
Speaker 2: I made as from a World Series standpoint at fifty

976
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 2: to one. I've since invested in some division money. I've

977
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 2: since invested in some win total money. The World Series

978
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 2: number isn't there, That fifty to one isn't there anymore.

979
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 2: But you know, if you can find good money on

980
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 2: an inl check out Sean's article. Checkout Sean's projections about

981
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: what their true odds should be. But I think Cincinnati

982
00:42:56,960 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 2: is something that you want to have in your investment

983
00:42:58,640 --> 00:42:59,959
Speaker 2: portfolio going into the season.

984
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 1: Absolutely Nope, long way to the wall in shenter Field.

985
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 2: Here and Tyson, let's talk about a team that's not

986
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 2: going to be in our investment portfolio. Let's talk about

987
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 2: the Pittsburgh Pirates last season. P and C Park is wonderful.

988
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: By the way, before I get into this, Primani sandwiches

989
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 2: are the best. P and C Park is one of

990
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 2: the most beautiful things I've ever seen. Very passionate fan base.

991
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 2: But last season sixty five wins, Vegas win total was

992
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,399
Speaker 2: at seventy seven and a half. They massively underachieved the

993
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 2: fact said they should have had sixty eight wins and

994
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 2: not sixty five. Vegas has their win total out at

995
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 2: Westgate at seventy one and a half. Sean, you got

996
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 2: them marked at sixty eight. Some other projection systems a

997
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 2: little bit higher, but still it seems like everybody's under

998
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,839
Speaker 2: this seventy one and a half. I'll let you take

999
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 2: it from here. But when I see key addition, Jared Dyson,

1000
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 2: that's your key addition. Could be a long season.

1001
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, they actually have some nice young position players. The

1002
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: more I looked at this team, the less I hated it,

1003
00:43:57,719 --> 00:43:59,759
Speaker 1: especially from a lineup standpoint, like they kind of have

1004
00:43:59,800 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 1: a on young lineup. Brian Reynolds came up last year,

1005
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: did some cool things. Kevin Newman at shortstop playing pretty well.

1006
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: Josh Bell has turned into a real major league you know,

1007
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 1: professional hitter. Thirty five home run forty home run threat

1008
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: from both sides of the plate. That guy can match.

1009
00:44:15,000 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: Chris Archered a pretty good second half, so I think

1010
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 1: they can probably get some value for him in season.

1011
00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: I still don't know why they traded Austin Meadows and

1012
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 1: other pieces for him. Oh yeah, Tyler glasnow other pieces.

1013
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: Joe Musker I've had a three win season, so he

1014
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 1: showed some nice things. But beyond that, they don't really

1015
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 1: have much rotation. Mitch Keller's you know, top prospect. I

1016
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: think he can do some stuff. You know, they have

1017
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,760
Speaker 1: some Like I said, they have some nice young lineup pieces,

1018
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 1: but they are not completely loaded in the farm system.

1019
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 1: Cabrian Hayes is gonna come up. He he's a nice

1020
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: two way third basement. I really like him a lot.

1021
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 1: It's probably a future goal Glover. He's the best defensive

1022
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: third basement of the Miners. The real interesting guy to watch,

1023
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 1: the real question mark for me, is Gregory Bolanco. He's

1024
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,800
Speaker 1: still twenty eight, twenty nine, never really achieved his peak,

1025
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,919
Speaker 1: had a bunch of setbacks last year from a twenty

1026
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:07,080
Speaker 1: eighteen shoulder injuries.

1027
00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 3: So can Polanco get to his peak level?

1028
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 1: Can they actually get some value out of him and

1029
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: maybe trade him for something that.

1030
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: Remains to be seen.

1031
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 1: He's he's really sort of disappointed through this point of

1032
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 1: his career. So a guy that they expected a lot

1033
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 1: from when they have that potential outfield with him and

1034
00:45:23,800 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 1: McCutcheon and Starling Marte.

1035
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 3: Now it's just him left and it's never really panned out.

1036
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's worth mentioning. You know, we talked about Austin

1037
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 2: Meadows and Tyler glasnow out the door. It's worth mentioning

1038
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 2: that there is a brand new manager in a brand

1039
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: new GM here. So whatever mistakes were made in the

1040
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 2: past that they have, they are long gone and it's

1041
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 2: a new regime here in Pittsburgh. So probably no expectations

1042
00:45:47,200 --> 00:45:48,839
Speaker 2: for them to win this year. They're going to try

1043
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: to put the pieces of the puzzle back together. From

1044
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 2: a fantasy standpoint, I know the Brian Reynolds in the

1045
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 2: outfield is his ADP is up around the one eighties.

1046
00:45:56,440 --> 00:45:59,200
Speaker 2: He is the one fantasy player that I think is

1047
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 2: getting more noticed in drafts than usual. Other than that,

1048
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:04,560
Speaker 2: this isn't no play for me. Do you have any

1049
00:46:04,600 --> 00:46:05,440
Speaker 2: plays on Pittsburgh.

1050
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:08,759
Speaker 1: No, there was an under seventy three and a half

1051
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 1: that was out there last week. I would have played that.

1052
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 1: I think it's been bet down under sixty you know,

1053
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: under sixty nine, under seventy pretty much everywhere at this point.

1054
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 1: So no play for.

1055
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,480
Speaker 3: Me unless you saw like a seventy two and a

1056
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:20,439
Speaker 3: half basically.

1057
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: Two years. Let's move on to the NL East. This

1058
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: is our last division to talk about. You know, the

1059
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 2: Washington Nationals are I guess not projected to win this

1060
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 2: division after winning it all. So we'll start off with

1061
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 2: the Atlanta Braves. Last season, the Braves finished up with

1062
00:46:44,800 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 2: ninety seven wins. Vegas win total was at eighty six.

1063
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 2: The THAG says that they only should have had ninety

1064
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 2: one wins, so they had overachieved by six games Atlanta.

1065
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,440
Speaker 2: Right now, since it ninety and a half wins, Sean,

1066
00:46:57,480 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: your projection is at eighty nine. Other projections systems come

1067
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 2: in much lower than you, and much lower than the

1068
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 2: ninety and a half it's currently listed at the Westgate.

1069
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a team that's kind of been hated

1070
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 3: on for the past few years.

1071
00:47:08,160 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 1: I actually bet they're under last year because everybody was

1072
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: pretty much pointing to them in around eighty five wins

1073
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: when their total was up over eighty eight nineties. So interesting,

1074
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,480
Speaker 1: just because I don't know what it is about the

1075
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,279
Speaker 1: Braves that everybody's missing the mark on in terms of

1076
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: their projection. They have a bunch of generational talents with

1077
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 1: the kune On Albi's and Freddy Freeman. They have a

1078
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 1: ton of young pitching prospects and young pitchers who could

1079
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:37,799
Speaker 1: develop into something nice. Obviously, they lost Josh Donans in

1080
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: the offseason. It's you know, it's a big Wossie was

1081
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 1: great on both sides of the ball. Last year. Dallas

1082
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,839
Speaker 1: Kichel didn't really give them much. Julio Tehran was there

1083
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 1: for a while, always a bit enigmatic, but they made

1084
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: some nice additions, adding Will Smith to their bullpen, Marcello

1085
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,440
Speaker 1: Zuna to the lineup. They can slide Austin Riley down

1086
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 1: the third base, probably split Tomago on Carmargo. You know,

1087
00:47:59,040 --> 00:48:03,359
Speaker 1: the real question is who's gonna emerge from their group

1088
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: of young pitchers to fill out the bottom of the

1089
00:48:05,320 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 1: rotation and can they upgrade or can they get their

1090
00:48:10,719 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 1: third base spots and shortstop to improve. Dansby Swanson has

1091
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: kind of been a below average defender, which that was

1092
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 1: defense was supposed to be his carrying card when they

1093
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,160
Speaker 1: got rid of Andrew fin Simmons. So this is year three.

1094
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 1: Can they become a league average hitter? Maybe at least

1095
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: reigns to be seen.

1096
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 3: Austin Riley was a prospect who really impressed me two

1097
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:29,399
Speaker 3: years ago.

1098
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: His contact has kind of gone out the window, but

1099
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: I think no matter who takes the job, between him

1100
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:36,279
Speaker 1: and Carmargo, those guys could hit twenty five home runs

1101
00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 1: over the course of a fall season.

1102
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 2: Cole Hamils who's already hurt though, right.

1103
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: I mean, it just adds into their rotation depth when

1104
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: he does come back. Though, they've really turned their bullpen

1105
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 1: from a deficit into a strength that I think you

1106
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 1: could say the same thing about the Nationals, So we'll

1107
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 1: get to in a moment. They've had a Corbyn, Martinreen,

1108
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,959
Speaker 1: Will Smith, Martin Lanson all in the past year really

1109
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 1: filled out that bullpen. They have some nice outfield prospects,

1110
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:03,239
Speaker 1: depth outfielder's like Endurancyrt just on their bench who can

1111
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:06,160
Speaker 1: give them extra playing time. So it's a deep team.

1112
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:07,880
Speaker 1: The more I look at this team, the more I

1113
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,600
Speaker 1: like it. I can't envision myself taking an under on

1114
00:49:11,680 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 1: this team. I think it's pretty close at the top

1115
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: between the Braves, Nats, and Mets, so any of these

1116
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 1: three can win the division. I wouldn't be surprised if

1117
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,439
Speaker 1: the Braves won ninety five games again.

1118
00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they definitely have the offensive talent to do that.

1119
00:49:25,600 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 2: And I know that. I was looking here at park

1120
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 2: factors of what we've seen out of Cumberland the last

1121
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 2: couple of years, and it seems like not a big

1122
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 2: home run park. They were opened up at twenty seventh

1123
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 2: in the league and home runs and they jacked up

1124
00:49:37,600 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 2: to fifteenth last year, but that probably can be attributed

1125
00:49:39,920 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 2: to what they have offensive firepower wise, and so it

1126
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:46,359
Speaker 2: does seem to be more of a doubles park than

1127
00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 2: it does a home run park. I think the you know,

1128
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 2: getting anything out of Dancy Swanson would be nice. You know,

1129
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,399
Speaker 2: Mark Cacus has been steady and consistent talking to speaking

1130
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,479
Speaker 2: about how old some players are. I think Marcacus feels

1131
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 2: like he's been around forever. Of marcel A. Zuna just

1132
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 2: makes this offense. I mean, they're gonna be able to score.

1133
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 2: They're going to be able to get some runs on

1134
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 2: the board for this pitching staff. So other than that,

1135
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 2: is there anything that we need to be paying attention to,

1136
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 2: say fantasy wise, or you know, depth of their rotation wise,

1137
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 2: or you know, are there prospects that could be on

1138
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 2: the move for Chris Bryant. What do you think is

1139
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 2: going to the direction of this team.

1140
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if they trade for Bryant, the Cubs would

1141
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: certainly want to reload with young pitching.

1142
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 3: So they have yet another Anderson.

1143
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:28,720
Speaker 1: I don't know if people are aware, but there's about

1144
00:50:28,719 --> 00:50:31,800
Speaker 1: fifteen guys named Anderson who are pitchers in Major League Baseball.

1145
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:34,760
Speaker 1: Actually made an infographic last year so we could differentiate

1146
00:50:34,840 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 1: amongst all of them. So Ian Anderson will be added

1147
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:39,400
Speaker 1: to that shortly. But he's a nice prospect for a

1148
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:41,720
Speaker 1: bunch of different pitches, steeds to work on his command.

1149
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,440
Speaker 1: Bryce Wilson came up last year, doesn't really have much

1150
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 1: secondary stuff, but he's an interesting prospect. Kyle Wright's probably

1151
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: my favorite of the three. He's yet another Vandy pitcher.

1152
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,759
Speaker 1: He had, another Vandy college baseball player making his way

1153
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:55,280
Speaker 1: to the big leagues. He's got a really nice delivery,

1154
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 1: He's got two breaking balls. His slider's really nice.

1155
00:50:58,440 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 2: Again.

1156
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:00,719
Speaker 1: Another guy who needs to work on his refining his

1157
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:03,399
Speaker 1: command a little bit. But the Braves have a bunch

1158
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 1: of young arms. Twop designed he threw on there as well,

1159
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: who the Cubs might be interested in, and if not,

1160
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 1: I think they're going to find ways to stick them

1161
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:13,200
Speaker 1: in their brollpen and the bottom of their rotation to

1162
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: make use of them throughout the season. I actually really

1163
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 1: like the way that you know, Folk and Avitch and

1164
00:51:18,680 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: other guys came on for the Braves of the course

1165
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 1: of the year. That's part of the reason why I

1166
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: like them to maybe surpass their wintal to leave in

1167
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 1: just because their younger pitching seemed to click towards the

1168
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 1: end of the year.

1169
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, we mentioned Vandy pitchers here. Kumar Rocker won't be

1170
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 2: playing this year, but he will be next year, so

1171
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 2: that'd be's yet another Vandy pitcher that'll be in there

1172
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: for everybody. But I do like this team. I think

1173
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half is is maybe a little bit

1174
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 2: high I would like to see. I think they can

1175
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 2: absolutely win the division and they can give you know,

1176
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 2: the Nats a lot of trouble. But for me, it's

1177
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 2: going to be a no play. Do you have any

1178
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:53,600
Speaker 2: play on the braves?

1179
00:51:53,920 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 3: Play on the braves?

1180
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 2: Okay, properly priced pitch on the way, swung on in

1181
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 2: a high fly ball, hits a deep right field again

1182
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 2: an h Ero goes back to the track, to the

1183
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 2: wall and make the we're gonna move on to the champs.

1184
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 2: To the Washington Nationals. Last year, they finished up with

1185
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 2: ninety three wins. They had a Vegas win total set

1186
00:52:11,680 --> 00:52:14,000
Speaker 2: at eighty nine. If the fact says they should have

1187
00:52:14,000 --> 00:52:16,359
Speaker 2: won ninety five, so they actually underachieved from what they

1188
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 2: actually did from a win total perspective, Vegas Westgate specifically

1189
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 2: has them at ninety wins on the Dot Sean, your

1190
00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 2: projection is at eighty nine. Seems like the you know,

1191
00:52:28,360 --> 00:52:29,759
Speaker 2: the Westgate maybe got it right.

1192
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean some projection systems a little bit lower

1193
00:52:32,360 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: than me. It's same with the Braves. I'm actually a

1194
00:52:34,520 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 1: little bit higher than the rest of the market, and

1195
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:38,759
Speaker 1: we'll get to the second y. Lots of like about

1196
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 1: this team. They're really deep. You know, they added startling

1197
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 1: cash from their infield. Obviously lost Rent Gown, but added

1198
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: Will Harris to the bullpen. Has probably turned their bullpen

1199
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: into a strength now. Adding Harris ron as Elias in

1200
00:52:51,600 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 1: season last year, Hunter Strickland, Ryan Harper. This offseason, Eric

1201
00:52:57,320 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 1: TAM's going to get some more bats for them, and

1202
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 1: then he did Inacky possibly which could be interesting for

1203
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:02,760
Speaker 1: his fantasy value.

1204
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:04,720
Speaker 3: B also seen Kevin Long.

1205
00:53:04,520 --> 00:53:06,439
Speaker 1: Their hitting coach, have a lot of success with left

1206
00:53:06,440 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 1: handed hitters and getting more power out of them.

1207
00:53:08,360 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 3: So maybe Long can unlock.

1208
00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 1: Tames even further than he already is and get him

1209
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 1: back to his form from Korea. In terms of you

1210
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 1: know what really concerns me with this team, it's the

1211
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:26,200
Speaker 1: rotation behind their big three. So they have a guy

1212
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,640
Speaker 1: named Will Crow who's in the miners. He's a chance

1213
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,279
Speaker 1: to be a number four starter. I really like what

1214
00:53:31,320 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 1: Austin Voff did during the year last year showed some

1215
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 1: nice velocity uptick like cro did the Miners. So guys

1216
00:53:37,640 --> 00:53:40,040
Speaker 1: like that I think could be interesting for fantasy purposes,

1217
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 1: just because I don't necessarily trust what they have at

1218
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 1: the bottom of their rotation. But this is a strong team.

1219
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 1: They have a lot of depth. They could replace a

1220
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:52,280
Speaker 1: lot of injuries. I think the fact that Rendon left

1221
00:53:52,280 --> 00:53:54,800
Speaker 1: and it leaves Soto more on an island by himself.

1222
00:53:54,880 --> 00:53:57,520
Speaker 1: I mean, he is Trey Turner there, but Soto is

1223
00:53:57,560 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: going to improve. He's, you know, in other worldly star.

1224
00:54:02,680 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 1: He's I think he's younger than like ninety five percent

1225
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 1: of the guys in the top one hundred prospects list,

1226
00:54:07,080 --> 00:54:11,920
Speaker 1: which is hilarious. But I think he's he's a viable

1227
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 1: viable bet for MVP right just because, like Bellinger last

1228
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:21,040
Speaker 1: year on the Dodgers, if that team has success, there's

1229
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:25,040
Speaker 1: not many other big name offensive pieces or offensive pieces

1230
00:54:25,040 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 1: around him. We were going to put a huge numbers,

1231
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,239
Speaker 1: so Turner might put up some big numbers. But other

1232
00:54:30,360 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 1: than that, I think Soto is a really interesting MVP candidate,

1233
00:54:34,680 --> 00:54:36,400
Speaker 1: and I think I already made a bet on him

1234
00:54:36,400 --> 00:54:37,399
Speaker 1: at around fifteen to one.

1235
00:54:37,960 --> 00:54:39,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, and for years we thought Victor Robles would be

1236
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 2: the guy that would be the All Star MVP off

1237
00:54:42,360 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 2: this team, and you know, Soto's been the guy that's good.

1238
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 2: They're going to carry the franchise, the reason why they'd

1239
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:49,760
Speaker 2: have a problem letting Bryce Harper go. So it's interesting

1240
00:54:49,760 --> 00:54:51,719
Speaker 2: to see that Fernando Rodney is no longer with the

1241
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 2: team and Hunter Strickland is in the bullpen. Do you

1242
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 2: have a gambling take about the new rules that were

1243
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,600
Speaker 2: just throwing? I had no clue that this was coming,

1244
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 2: But do you have a gambling take on the fact

1245
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,240
Speaker 2: that a relief pitcher has to stay in for three batters.

1246
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:08,640
Speaker 3: So it's it's only if they begin the inning, Isn't

1247
00:55:08,680 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 3: that correct?

1248
00:55:09,600 --> 00:55:10,720
Speaker 2: Right? Yeah?

1249
00:55:10,800 --> 00:55:13,120
Speaker 1: So I don't think that that ends up happening as

1250
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:14,840
Speaker 1: much as people think it does.

1251
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:17,120
Speaker 3: I think only fourteen percent of the time.

1252
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,120
Speaker 1: Does you know a guy who's a Louvi come in

1253
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 1: and get stuck for the first batter and then you know,

1254
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 1: get removed. So I don't think it's going to have

1255
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: as much of an impact ultimately as people think it does,

1256
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:31,719
Speaker 1: especially adding a twenty six man onto a roster. There's

1257
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,920
Speaker 1: going to be teams who have more left handed pitchers

1258
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 1: in general, or more left handed pictures on these rosters

1259
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: probably in general, and they could cycle them up and

1260
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:44,320
Speaker 1: down from day to day. So it's it's negligible probably

1261
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:48,960
Speaker 1: unless you you only have one key left handed reliever

1262
00:55:49,080 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 1: on your roster, then you're going to run into situations

1263
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,240
Speaker 1: where you have to maybe think for an extra second

1264
00:55:54,239 --> 00:55:55,359
Speaker 1: about when to deploy that guy.

1265
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 2: I can't tell you how many times I've had a

1266
00:55:57,360 --> 00:56:00,360
Speaker 2: bet on a mill reliever, a long relief for a

1267
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 2: seventh and eighth inning guy, and they just don't have it.

1268
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 2: The second that they throw off the mound, they just

1269
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:05,880
Speaker 2: don't have it. You know what, Now we got to

1270
00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 2: stay in there for a while.

1271
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:10,439
Speaker 1: So Hunter Strickland, there's live betting purposes, you know, that's

1272
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 1: certainly something to watch, Like you see exacting and clearly

1273
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,399
Speaker 1: doesn't have it, and you might be able to bet

1274
00:56:16,440 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 1: a run to score in that inning and plus money

1275
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:20,520
Speaker 1: or you know, even a more specific prop than just

1276
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:23,040
Speaker 1: an over or under. So take a look at that

1277
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:24,160
Speaker 1: for live betting purposes.

1278
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I know Hunter Strickland and Fernando Rodney

1279
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:29,840
Speaker 2: have both been curse words that have come out of

1280
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 2: my mouth in the past. Do we have any deliverables

1281
00:56:33,200 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 2: off of this off the Washington Nationals. Is there any

1282
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 2: over under divisions anything that we have bet on these guys?

1283
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 1: Now? No best for me from fantasy perspective, I think

1284
00:56:42,920 --> 00:56:46,360
Speaker 1: we mentioned everybody except Carter k Boom. Didn't mention Taylor

1285
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 1: Tyner Rainy either. Randy could be a closer potentially. You know,

1286
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: it's this NAT's bullpen has kind of shoveled everybody out.

1287
00:56:53,320 --> 00:56:56,040
Speaker 1: Hudson ultimately took the job, but Ranny had a seventeen

1288
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 1: percent swinging strike rate, so he's somebody to watch for fantasy.

1289
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 1: And Carter key Boom, you know, former first round pick,

1290
00:57:01,760 --> 00:57:04,440
Speaker 1: top prospect, I think there's a good chance that he

1291
00:57:04,520 --> 00:57:05,960
Speaker 1: ends up with the third base job by the time

1292
00:57:06,000 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 1: the season's over, or even second base job. I mean

1293
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,399
Speaker 1: that's his more likely long term future. And startling cash

1294
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,600
Speaker 1: ro can handle third, we've seen, so good chance that

1295
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 1: Carter Keeboom gets a lot of at bats, and if

1296
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:19,960
Speaker 1: he does, he's he's a viable Rookie of the Year candidate.

1297
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:24,440
Speaker 2: H Line on the left field down in the counter again,

1298
00:57:24,720 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 2: been attending you know the wall leaks he's come up,

1299
00:57:28,080 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 2: didn't catch it. So let's go ahead and move on

1300
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 2: to the new York Mets. This is obviously Sean's favorite

1301
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 2: team is he sports them here on the podcast New

1302
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 2: York Mets last year finished with eighty six wins. Their

1303
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 2: Vegas win total was projected at eighty five and a half,

1304
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:44,280
Speaker 2: so they made money for the people that backed him

1305
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 2: on the over Pathak says that they should have won

1306
00:57:46,520 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 2: eighty six. So Vegas was spot on with their win total.

1307
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: It's exactly where they landed. And guess what their win

1308
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 2: total is this year, eighty six and a half. So

1309
00:57:54,760 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 2: no matter what key additions and losses that we talk

1310
00:57:56,880 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 2: about for our first year manager and a second in

1311
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 2: your GM, it seems like Vegas got it right and

1312
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 2: it's exactly where they landed, especially with their pathag Sean,

1313
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 2: you've got them right at eighty seven. It seems like

1314
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 2: we've pretty much got these guys pegged. We can close

1315
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 2: the book on the Mets right because it's all set

1316
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 2: in stone.

1317
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,080
Speaker 1: So I don't know if you remember, but they actually

1318
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 1: went over their win total in dramatic fashion last year.

1319
00:58:17,560 --> 00:58:19,280
Speaker 3: A little walk off home run on the last day

1320
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:19,800
Speaker 3: of the season.

1321
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 1: Yes, where some Action Network HQ members might add a

1322
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 1: little bit of a taste of victory on the last

1323
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 1: day of Bugger season there.

1324
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:28,440
Speaker 3: If no, the Mets then go to the playoffs.

1325
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 2: But we should hang a banner in the office, absolutely.

1326
00:58:31,360 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 1: No, no doubt. Yeah, we'll throw it up there next to

1327
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: our our one hundred and one golf futures that we've hit.

1328
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 2: Yes, so the Mets.

1329
00:58:39,040 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 1: The Mets are you know, self defining. You say the Mets,

1330
00:58:44,560 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 1: and people know generally what that emotion of folks.

1331
00:58:47,680 --> 00:58:47,880
Speaker 2: Right.

1332
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:51,360
Speaker 1: They have a very very very talented team on paper.

1333
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: On paper is the operative term there. They've always had

1334
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 1: talented teams on paper, which is why projection systems love them.

1335
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 1: Davenport has them at ninety three wins. The initial Davenport

1336
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:05,040
Speaker 1: projection had them at ninety six wins. I was floored

1337
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:08,160
Speaker 1: when I saw that Pakota came in an eighty eight wins.

1338
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 3: They have a ton of wins above replacement on their team.

1339
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 1: I'm not sure off handwhid Fangrafts had them, but this

1340
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 1: is a very very strong twenty six man roster. Their

1341
00:59:16,600 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 1: fourth in bullpen wins above replacement, fourth and starter wins

1342
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 1: above replacement. They have a lot of offensive pieces, you know,

1343
00:59:24,120 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 1: Pete Alonzo obviously chief among them, but Jad Davis had

1344
00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 1: a monster season last year. I'm at Rosario became a

1345
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 1: league average hitter last year. Michael Confordo is still due

1346
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:37,000
Speaker 1: for his best career. Brandon Nimo, I think, is poised

1347
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,560
Speaker 1: for a bounce back year. So they have all the

1348
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 1: offensive pieces in place. Added Dylan Betansis to the bullpen,

1349
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 1: filled out their rotation depth a little bit with Rick Porcello,

1350
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:49,200
Speaker 1: Michael Waka in the penn is a six to seven starter,

1351
00:59:49,480 --> 00:59:51,360
Speaker 1: Eduardo Nunia is a little bit of infield depth.

1352
00:59:51,720 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 3: It's a really good team.

1353
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 1: The question is do they stay healthy because they don't

1354
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:58,680
Speaker 1: know much depth, which is always the case. They virtually

1355
00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: no forty man depth, no outfield depth, and what does

1356
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: nassessmentis give them Cesspitus has said that he's going to

1357
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 1: hit fifty homers and playing one hundred and forty games.

1358
01:00:07,400 --> 01:00:09,520
Speaker 3: Brady van Wagen doesn't even know if he could walk.

1359
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: He's having him take reps at first base because he's

1360
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 1: concerned about his ankles. This season could go in a

1361
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: variety of directions. It could be yet another mess disaster,

1362
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 1: which it's already started out with with them having to

1363
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 1: replace a manager before he ever managed a major league game,

1364
01:00:23,120 --> 01:00:26,480
Speaker 1: or it could be another run to the World Series

1365
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 1: like they had back against your Royals a few years ago.

1366
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,360
Speaker 1: It's you know, they have a rotation that certainly fits

1367
01:00:32,360 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 1: the bill, like the Nationals did last year making a

1368
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,360
Speaker 1: run through the playoffs. The gram has won two straight

1369
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:38,680
Speaker 1: cy Youngs. We're going to make it three in a row.

1370
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 1: So the talents there, it's do they stay healthy? Can

1371
01:00:42,200 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 1: their medical staff not make guys more injured than they

1372
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 1: already are. You know, we'll ownership stay out of the

1373
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:48,720
Speaker 1: way and let them let them play.

1374
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:51,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, that ninety six win projection from Davenport. That must

1375
01:00:52,000 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 2: have been a Rick Procello cy Young year. That must

1376
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 2: have been the best Marcus Stroman's ever been a healthy

1377
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 2: de Gram in Cyder Guard and Michael I will say

1378
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,080
Speaker 2: this though, you know Michael Confordo, once he stopped being

1379
01:01:02,120 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 2: a platoon and and I know that that was a

1380
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 2: problem with him, and he verbalized it a lot that

1381
01:01:06,400 --> 01:01:08,240
Speaker 2: he needed he needed to be an everyday player just

1382
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 2: for his swing and consistency. And once he was, we

1383
01:01:11,080 --> 01:01:12,920
Speaker 2: knew that he was going to hit bombs once they

1384
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 2: quit messing with him and benching him and making him

1385
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 2: a platoon player. So I'm really glad that he's getting

1386
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,520
Speaker 2: full time starts. From a fantasy perspective, I don't think

1387
01:01:21,560 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 2: last year was a fluke whatsoever. I think Conforido is

1388
01:01:23,640 --> 01:01:26,320
Speaker 2: a great source of home runs in the league, and

1389
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:29,280
Speaker 2: Pete Alonzo is absolutely if I was if I was

1390
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 2: a Mets fan, to have that, to have Pete Alonzo

1391
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 2: on my team is just that. That is a corn

1392
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:35,960
Speaker 2: shown is something you always want to have. And if

1393
01:01:36,000 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 2: you get full health out of Robbie Cano, then you know,

1394
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 2: sky's the limit in the division here. Well, you know,

1395
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,320
Speaker 2: hoping for a full health here. If you're going to

1396
01:01:42,360 --> 01:01:43,960
Speaker 2: place a bet on the Mets, you would want to

1397
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 2: have full health with some of these guys. You would

1398
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:47,840
Speaker 2: need a lot out of Prissello as your fifth starter.

1399
01:01:48,000 --> 01:01:50,760
Speaker 2: Edwin Diaz needs to return to what he was in

1400
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:53,040
Speaker 2: Seattle in his best years when I think it was

1401
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 2: just two years ago when Colome was back on them

1402
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 2: up Delan Betances. That's a you know, he needs to

1403
01:01:57,320 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 2: stay healthy. I know there was some injury problems there

1404
01:01:59,320 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 2: with the Yankees, So.

1405
01:02:00,600 --> 01:02:02,880
Speaker 1: Other than that, I thinking like, if all these guys

1406
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 1: perform as you would hope them to in a good year,

1407
01:02:05,760 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 1: this is a loaded team. It's just a question of

1408
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 1: how many injuries do they sustand they.

1409
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 2: Don't want to be suspeedust. Can you do that? Can

1410
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:14,680
Speaker 2: you put a can you put a past tense on

1411
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:16,080
Speaker 2: a suspetus and call them.

1412
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 3: It doesn't sound awkward.

1413
01:02:19,560 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 2: I mean, it just seems to be so injury prone.

1414
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 2: Whether he's diving into the turf or if he's getting

1415
01:02:24,000 --> 01:02:25,800
Speaker 2: out of his car when he pulls up a spring

1416
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 2: training it seems like there's always a some sort of injury.

1417
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:31,280
Speaker 2: Uh So we'll see how that turns out this year.

1418
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:33,640
Speaker 2: But yeah, full health, these guys can win, absolutely win

1419
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:37,120
Speaker 2: the division and contend. But from a win total perspective,

1420
01:02:37,160 --> 01:02:39,920
Speaker 2: with the Mets, the projections pretty much all line up.

1421
01:02:40,120 --> 01:02:42,320
Speaker 2: You know, Davenport and Pacoda are over the eighty six

1422
01:02:42,360 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 2: and a half, but you got to have full health

1423
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 2: to get over that number. So for me, it's a

1424
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:49,120
Speaker 2: no play. I think same for you, right Sean.

1425
01:02:49,040 --> 01:02:50,280
Speaker 3: Just yeah, it's a no play.

1426
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 1: You know, I've for fun as a as a fan

1427
01:02:52,800 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 1: of the team, I've started maybe considering taking a small

1428
01:02:55,920 --> 01:02:57,560
Speaker 1: shot on the Mets at three and a half to

1429
01:02:57,600 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 1: one if I see it pop. Their best numbers around

1430
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:02,200
Speaker 1: three twenty five. So if I see a three P

1431
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 1: fifty out there, I might take it. But beyond that yet,

1432
01:03:04,760 --> 01:03:05,320
Speaker 1: no play for me.

1433
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:07,400
Speaker 2: Absolutely. If you're a fan of a team, you should

1434
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 2: take their futures, no matter what the hell's going on.

1435
01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:10,640
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're gonna go to the gas station

1436
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: to buy a power Ball ticket, why would you not

1437
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 2: put money on your team to win the World Series?

1438
01:03:14,720 --> 01:03:16,760
Speaker 2: I mean it worked for Saint Louis Blue Blues fans

1439
01:03:16,840 --> 01:03:18,400
Speaker 2: last year. It's interesting.

1440
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: As a Mets fan, I haven't really processed Pete Alonzo yet.

1441
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 1: I mean I've had a full year of him and

1442
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,200
Speaker 1: he hit fifty three home runs last year, but it

1443
01:03:25,240 --> 01:03:27,439
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like he is on our team and part

1444
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 1: of the Mets. I know he exists, I know he's

1445
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:32,479
Speaker 1: built into the projections, but it just doesn't feel real.

1446
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 3: It's too good to be true.

1447
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:37,240
Speaker 2: There's a pitch swinging along one the center field hunter

1448
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:41,040
Speaker 2: to the track, he's to the wall, he leaps, he

1449
01:03:41,240 --> 01:03:45,080
Speaker 2: caught it. He runs home bron the Phillies, which is

1450
01:03:45,080 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 2: actually going to be our last team we're going to

1451
01:03:46,640 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 2: talk about here in the NL.

1452
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 3: We're skipping the Marlins.

1453
01:03:50,000 --> 01:03:52,200
Speaker 2: Why would we do shipping the Marlins? Should we just

1454
01:03:52,240 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 2: skip to the Marlins now and say that we are

1455
01:03:54,160 --> 01:03:57,479
Speaker 2: not going to have money on the Marlins beautiful part right.

1456
01:03:57,520 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 2: I mean they had the bobblehead Hall of Fame. It's

1457
01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 2: air conditioned on the inside. They got this stupid ass

1458
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:04,960
Speaker 2: light up dolphin thing that goes off every time there's

1459
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 2: a home run, which to thank god, I saw Christian

1460
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:09,080
Speaker 2: yell shit a home run there with my kids because

1461
01:04:09,080 --> 01:04:11,440
Speaker 2: my kids only wanted to see the dolphin light up. Well,

1462
01:04:11,760 --> 01:04:13,280
Speaker 2: you know what, let's go ahead and skip to them,

1463
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 2: and then we'll say phillies to end the podcast.

1464
01:04:16,080 --> 01:04:16,760
Speaker 3: Marlins quick.

1465
01:04:16,760 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 2: Sure, yeah, so podcast with the Marlins. Who know?

1466
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 1: Will it's a terrible idea. Why don't you get in

1467
01:04:23,840 --> 01:04:24,720
Speaker 1: the podcast with a bet?

1468
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,320
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, we have to have a bet. So I'll

1469
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:29,400
Speaker 2: set up here. We got fifty seven wins from last year.

1470
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 2: Vegas has them at sixty three and a half. Sean,

1471
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:34,240
Speaker 2: you have your projection at sixty four, which is right

1472
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:37,000
Speaker 2: next to where the Westgate has it. Other projection systems

1473
01:04:37,000 --> 01:04:39,280
Speaker 2: think the Marlins are going to be good.

1474
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,320
Speaker 1: You know they This is another team that the more

1475
01:04:42,360 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: you look at the roster, the less you hate it.

1476
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 3: If you compare the Marlins.

1477
01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:50,520
Speaker 2: You saw a guy in a bar, like, she's the

1478
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:53,440
Speaker 2: only girl here. The more and the more I look

1479
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:54,840
Speaker 2: at it, this is the one I got to hit

1480
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:57,160
Speaker 2: on tonight. Right. The more you look at it, I'm

1481
01:04:57,160 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 2: feeling yeah, But she looks The more you look at her, huh,

1482
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:00,960
Speaker 2: the later.

1483
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:01,439
Speaker 3: It gets too.

1484
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:05,800
Speaker 1: So the Marlins, the Pirates, and the Giants. After going

1485
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 1: through all these rosters and going through all our ale rosters,

1486
01:05:09,240 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 1: if you gave me a total win total on the Marlins, Pirates,

1487
01:05:13,000 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 1: Giants compared to the Orioles, Tigers, and Royals, I would

1488
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 1: clearly take the NL teams. Those Tigers and Orioles rosters

1489
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:23,200
Speaker 1: are barren compared to what these teams have in terms

1490
01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 1: of outside.

1491
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:25,520
Speaker 3: That being said, though.

1492
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 1: The Marlins have the lowest ones of replacement amongst hitters

1493
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 1: in baseball plus ten point eight. Their bullpen sucks, but

1494
01:05:31,680 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 1: they have a lot of good young pitchers.

1495
01:05:33,520 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 2: Six those.

1496
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 1: Sanchez will probably be up this year at some point,

1497
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:38,840
Speaker 1: top twenty prospect in baseball. He's going to be their

1498
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:43,200
Speaker 1: best pitcher since Fernandez. They have some interesting young outfielders

1499
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:45,080
Speaker 1: who are all kind of in Triple A or Double A.

1500
01:05:45,240 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 1: Monte Harrison, this guy could be interesting for fantasy if

1501
01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:51,320
Speaker 1: he comes up nine hormers twenty steals in fifty six

1502
01:05:51,360 --> 01:05:53,600
Speaker 1: games at Triple A when he got up to that level.

1503
01:05:54,280 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 1: They have a seven top one twenty prospects, guys who

1504
01:05:58,320 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 1: should get playing time, and if they do, something could

1505
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 1: be intriguing.

1506
01:06:02,000 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 3: But overall, yeah, there is no bet here.

1507
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:08,480
Speaker 1: I would lean towards the over, but ultimately I'm not

1508
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 1: going to be betting and over on the Marlins.

1509
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:13,680
Speaker 2: This team infuriates me, Like this is purely from a

1510
01:06:13,720 --> 01:06:16,919
Speaker 2: betting and there's been a lot of Marlins unders I've had.

1511
01:06:17,320 --> 01:06:20,200
Speaker 2: Sometimes there's pitching matchups where I don't mind backing these

1512
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:22,480
Speaker 2: guys and getting the under in there. But there's a

1513
01:06:22,560 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 2: lot of players on this team that from a betting

1514
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:27,960
Speaker 2: standpoint and a fantasy standpoint, just infuriate me. Like Lewis

1515
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:32,160
Speaker 2: Brinson I thought was going to be unbelievable, he is

1516
01:06:32,240 --> 01:06:35,560
Speaker 2: not panned out that way. Jesus Aguilar. You always see

1517
01:06:35,560 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 2: this home run number over twenty with him, no matter

1518
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,040
Speaker 2: where he's at. But what you don't understand is that

1519
01:06:40,080 --> 01:06:42,920
Speaker 2: he gets those in a span of fourteen days and

1520
01:06:42,960 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 2: then he goes on a sixty day bender of strikeouts

1521
01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:48,360
Speaker 2: Jose Rina was a guy that I like it when

1522
01:06:48,400 --> 01:06:50,640
Speaker 2: he gets a spot start. He was a good underplay

1523
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,720
Speaker 2: for me, but he does have the ability to be combustible.

1524
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,400
Speaker 2: The roster just up and down for me is frustrating

1525
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:59,080
Speaker 2: because you see the talent there, but it doesn't always

1526
01:06:59,120 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 2: pay off.

1527
01:07:00,040 --> 01:07:01,880
Speaker 1: Also, going to train these veterans the moment they can

1528
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:03,880
Speaker 1: get anything out of them, So it's just like it's

1529
01:07:03,880 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 1: a team that's going to improve towards the end of

1530
01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:05,880
Speaker 1: this season.

1531
01:07:06,280 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 2: Is that the direction that Mattingly and Jeter are going

1532
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:12,800
Speaker 2: to go from a manager GM perspective, is Mattingly and

1533
01:07:12,880 --> 01:07:16,920
Speaker 2: Jeter going to try to build anybody up, whether it's

1534
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:18,480
Speaker 2: the veterans or whether it's one of some of these

1535
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 2: new kids coming up, the Monty Harrison's, the six Dos

1536
01:07:20,640 --> 01:07:23,440
Speaker 2: Sanchez is Are they going to try to get a

1537
01:07:23,520 --> 01:07:25,960
Speaker 2: year or two out of them, show some progress and

1538
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 2: show that they're serviceable to having a high ceiling and

1539
01:07:28,880 --> 01:07:30,680
Speaker 2: getting rid of them. Is that what the Marlins are

1540
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 2: trying to do these days? Or did they ever you know,

1541
01:07:32,800 --> 01:07:34,160
Speaker 2: did they ever want to try to win again?

1542
01:07:34,520 --> 01:07:36,640
Speaker 1: They had a really nice pitcher in Zach Allen last

1543
01:07:36,720 --> 01:07:39,200
Speaker 1: year who clearly looked like their best player, and they

1544
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:42,640
Speaker 1: flipped him for Josh Chisholm, who's a double A prospect,

1545
01:07:42,680 --> 01:07:44,840
Speaker 1: who's really athletic and has a lot of upside because

1546
01:07:44,840 --> 01:07:47,800
Speaker 1: they're sticking to a plan of trading for as many

1547
01:07:47,880 --> 01:07:51,160
Speaker 1: athletic young players as they can, you know, and hoping

1548
01:07:51,200 --> 01:07:54,439
Speaker 1: that that upside comes into something. So if they think

1549
01:07:54,480 --> 01:07:56,760
Speaker 1: that a guy's hit a ceiling and they're not going

1550
01:07:56,800 --> 01:07:58,960
Speaker 1: to get much out of him, and is his service

1551
01:07:59,000 --> 01:08:01,360
Speaker 1: clock is already running, yeah, you might see them flip

1552
01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:03,040
Speaker 1: guys for another year. I mean, how far out of

1553
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 1: their contention window are they that the Gnats are going

1554
01:08:05,280 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 1: to be good for a while still, probably another few years.

1555
01:08:08,520 --> 01:08:11,000
Speaker 1: The Braves are set up to be good for probably

1556
01:08:11,080 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 1: eight year run. The Mets certainly have another few years

1557
01:08:13,480 --> 01:08:16,000
Speaker 1: in them, so the Marlins contention window probably doesn't start

1558
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:17,920
Speaker 1: for at least two three years at minimum.

1559
01:08:18,000 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 2: Let's switch over or no bets on the Marlins, No Bett,

1560
01:08:21,520 --> 01:08:24,160
Speaker 2: no divisions, no World Series bets for for the Marlins.

1561
01:08:24,400 --> 01:08:26,000
Speaker 3: No, not quite, not quite yet.

1562
01:08:26,479 --> 01:08:28,640
Speaker 1: I had to lean over, but like I said, it

1563
01:08:28,760 --> 01:08:30,680
Speaker 1: can't can't possibly bring myself to do it.

1564
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:34,639
Speaker 2: Almost pretty per picked by other body had a club

1565
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 2: of two that is you able to going up? Got it?

1566
01:08:38,800 --> 01:08:40,880
Speaker 2: He got it? He got Let's move on to the

1567
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:45,120
Speaker 2: Phillies here, who had the highest of expectations last year

1568
01:08:45,360 --> 01:08:48,720
Speaker 2: and the team that traded them, Bryce Harper is the

1569
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:50,600
Speaker 2: one that won the World Series. So a little bit

1570
01:08:50,640 --> 01:08:51,920
Speaker 2: of egg in the face there.

1571
01:08:52,640 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 3: For Washington would win the World Series when he signed

1572
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:55,719
Speaker 3: with Philly.

1573
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:59,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it was a good way to hedge himself there.

1574
01:08:59,640 --> 01:09:01,679
Speaker 2: Like it, you know, just to give a little shout

1575
01:09:01,720 --> 01:09:04,640
Speaker 2: out to the old Nats. So Philadelphia Phillies. Last year

1576
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:06,760
Speaker 2: they finished up with eighty one wins. Vegas had them

1577
01:09:06,760 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 2: projected at eighty nine. You could see that everybody had

1578
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:12,840
Speaker 2: had a Phillies over ticket. In Phillies futures, Pethag says

1579
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:14,519
Speaker 2: that of the eighty one wins, they actually should have

1580
01:09:14,560 --> 01:09:17,519
Speaker 2: only won seventy nine. Looks like the difference has been split.

1581
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:20,280
Speaker 2: Westgate has their win total at eighty five and a half.

1582
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:23,439
Speaker 2: Sean you're at eighty four, and the other projection systems

1583
01:09:23,439 --> 01:09:26,320
Speaker 2: seem to come in below that number. Do we think

1584
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 2: you know, I'm looking at the list of key losses here,

1585
01:09:28,640 --> 01:09:30,360
Speaker 2: and you know, I don't think any of these were

1586
01:09:30,400 --> 01:09:33,640
Speaker 2: big enough contributors to say, I mean Michael Franco and

1587
01:09:33,920 --> 01:09:36,599
Speaker 2: Drew Smiley for you know, being limited, and Michael Franco

1588
01:09:36,760 --> 01:09:39,439
Speaker 2: for being as inefficient as he was, especially from a

1589
01:09:39,479 --> 01:09:43,160
Speaker 2: defensive standpoint, and his stick would disappear at times. Why

1590
01:09:43,320 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 2: is it that the win total has been lowered? Is

1591
01:09:45,160 --> 01:09:47,720
Speaker 2: it just because it's come back to reality? I think so.

1592
01:09:48,120 --> 01:09:50,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you have three other really good teams in

1593
01:09:50,720 --> 01:09:53,519
Speaker 1: that division who were all probably a little bit better

1594
01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:56,000
Speaker 1: than them. So how many wins are really available for

1595
01:09:56,040 --> 01:09:57,800
Speaker 1: the taking when they have to go through those other

1596
01:09:57,920 --> 01:10:02,439
Speaker 1: three games? They in the NL Central, they'd be the favorite,

1597
01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:04,719
Speaker 1: but in the NL East they're probably the fourth choice.

1598
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 1: So this is a team that, you know, like I said,

1599
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:10,800
Speaker 1: there were other rosters that I went through and became

1600
01:10:10,880 --> 01:10:13,120
Speaker 1: more confident in their chances or like the roster more

1601
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:14,640
Speaker 1: as I went through it. The Phillies, I had the

1602
01:10:14,720 --> 01:10:17,920
Speaker 1: exact opposite effect. There's a lot here that scares me.

1603
01:10:18,360 --> 01:10:22,120
Speaker 1: Dede Greorius was a terrible defender last year after Tommy Johnson.

1604
01:10:22,400 --> 01:10:25,839
Speaker 1: He couldn't throw. He was the worst defensive shortstop in baseball.

1605
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:28,479
Speaker 1: D He hit, absolutely hit. And that's the thing with

1606
01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:30,400
Speaker 1: their lineup. They have a they have a really nice

1607
01:10:30,479 --> 01:10:32,200
Speaker 1: lineup with the mix of power and speed is you

1608
01:10:32,280 --> 01:10:34,800
Speaker 1: go through their lineup one through eight. I think Aaron

1609
01:10:34,840 --> 01:10:37,960
Speaker 1: knows a little bit overrated. You know, he's he's closer

1610
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:40,200
Speaker 1: to a three point seven to five XPIP guy than

1611
01:10:40,240 --> 01:10:42,360
Speaker 1: he is an ace. And the same thing goes for

1612
01:10:42,520 --> 01:10:44,720
Speaker 1: Zach Willer. He's he's about a three point five to

1613
01:10:44,840 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 1: three point seven to five guy. So you don't really

1614
01:10:47,240 --> 01:10:49,439
Speaker 1: have a true top of the rotation arm. You have

1615
01:10:49,520 --> 01:10:52,040
Speaker 1: a couple of guys who are two starters, and then

1616
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 1: behind that it phades off really quick. You know, Vince

1617
01:10:54,280 --> 01:10:57,599
Speaker 1: Velasquez hasn't put it together. He's closer to a four

1618
01:10:57,600 --> 01:10:59,840
Speaker 1: point seven to five yar A guy. Jake Arietta is

1619
01:10:59,880 --> 01:11:02,160
Speaker 1: like a four or five guy. Now, Zach Eflin's, you know,

1620
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:03,360
Speaker 1: closer to Alaskaz.

1621
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:06,400
Speaker 2: So Nick Povett has completely fallen out of the rotation

1622
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:08,719
Speaker 2: and as lucky to get any time in long relief

1623
01:11:08,760 --> 01:11:09,200
Speaker 2: out of the pen.

1624
01:11:09,800 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and even their bullpen.

1625
01:11:10,960 --> 01:11:13,120
Speaker 1: You know we were talking about the Braves bullpen getting

1626
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:14,519
Speaker 1: better than NAT's bullpen getting better.

1627
01:11:14,600 --> 01:11:16,000
Speaker 3: I think this bullpen is terrible.

1628
01:11:17,280 --> 01:11:19,160
Speaker 1: Sir Anthony de Megaz looked like he was gonna be

1629
01:11:19,479 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 1: a high leverage elite reliever, and last year his velocity

1630
01:11:23,080 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 1: fell off and he couldn't shrike guys out. So there's

1631
01:11:26,960 --> 01:11:29,559
Speaker 1: a lot that could potentially go wrong with this team.

1632
01:11:30,040 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 1: And at the same time, I don't see such a

1633
01:11:31,960 --> 01:11:34,920
Speaker 1: massive ceiling that I'm you know, running out to bet

1634
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:38,120
Speaker 1: on them to win the division. So with these other

1635
01:11:38,200 --> 01:11:41,760
Speaker 1: projections coming out, it's and seeing the roster, like you know,

1636
01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:43,920
Speaker 1: I do all my projections first before.

1637
01:11:43,760 --> 01:11:45,519
Speaker 2: I really rip through the roster one at a time.

1638
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:48,759
Speaker 1: But after ripping through the roster and seeing these other projections,

1639
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:50,840
Speaker 1: it's a team that I consider betting in under eighty

1640
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:51,160
Speaker 1: six on.

1641
01:11:52,680 --> 01:11:55,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have a Codd at seventy seven, Davenport at

1642
01:11:55,040 --> 01:11:58,800
Speaker 2: eighty one, Seanyard eighty four, and that those all those

1643
01:11:58,840 --> 01:12:01,000
Speaker 2: projections are below the curve a number of eighty five

1644
01:12:01,040 --> 01:12:04,479
Speaker 2: and a half. And somebody in this division has to lose,

1645
01:12:05,040 --> 01:12:07,600
Speaker 2: I mean, besides the Marlins, right of the teams that

1646
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:10,439
Speaker 2: are all contending, the Braves and the Mets, you know,

1647
01:12:10,560 --> 01:12:14,000
Speaker 2: I mean somebody in the Nacid. Somebody in this division's

1648
01:12:14,000 --> 01:12:16,160
Speaker 2: got to lose, and the Phillies may be the one.

1649
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:18,200
Speaker 2: Especially with the pitching that we just rattled off. There

1650
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:24,400
Speaker 2: absolutely absolutely a primary candidate to regress. I know, from

1651
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:28,640
Speaker 2: a fantasy standpoint, Scott Kingery has killed me for years, right,

1652
01:12:28,720 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 2: I mean we thought this was twenty twenty, you know,

1653
01:12:31,640 --> 01:12:33,840
Speaker 2: every year that when he came up, we thought that

1654
01:12:33,920 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 2: he would be the guy. What do you think about

1655
01:12:35,320 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 2: Scott Kingery this year?

1656
01:12:36,960 --> 01:12:39,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, so if he gets full of bats, which now

1657
01:12:39,160 --> 01:12:41,240
Speaker 1: that Michael Franco is out of the way, he is

1658
01:12:41,360 --> 01:12:44,479
Speaker 1: probably slated to. He projects as a twenty twenty guy

1659
01:12:45,840 --> 01:12:47,679
Speaker 1: average a little bit lower than I thought it would

1660
01:12:47,680 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 1: be when he first came up. I mean I've been

1661
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:52,120
Speaker 1: on King Grey since he was first given that extension

1662
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 1: to be a full time player. His minor league numbers

1663
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:56,400
Speaker 1: back it up. He was one of the top defenders

1664
01:12:56,439 --> 01:12:58,280
Speaker 1: in the minor leagues, which he would expect and keep

1665
01:12:58,280 --> 01:12:59,040
Speaker 1: a guy in the lineup.

1666
01:12:59,160 --> 01:13:01,200
Speaker 3: So always been high on Kingrey.

1667
01:13:02,240 --> 01:13:04,719
Speaker 1: I think there's a little bit of post hype territory

1668
01:13:04,800 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 1: with him now to finally seize on his prospect status.

1669
01:13:09,000 --> 01:13:11,400
Speaker 1: We skipped over it before. But the same really goes

1670
01:13:11,439 --> 01:13:13,519
Speaker 1: for Ian Half with the Cubs. I think now that

1671
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:16,719
Speaker 1: perhaps in year three and prove that he's an above

1672
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:19,679
Speaker 1: average hitter last year and has more room for playing time.

1673
01:13:19,720 --> 01:13:21,479
Speaker 1: I think he could break out in a post type

1674
01:13:21,520 --> 01:13:23,880
Speaker 1: point of his career as well. So Kingary is going

1675
01:13:23,960 --> 01:13:25,519
Speaker 1: to be a guy I'm targeting, just like I am

1676
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:27,799
Speaker 1: with Happ. They also have a young picture named Spencer Howard,

1677
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:30,040
Speaker 1: who I think they could call up to really fill

1678
01:13:30,080 --> 01:13:32,840
Speaker 1: out their rotation. He was throwing about ninety nine miles

1679
01:13:32,840 --> 01:13:34,439
Speaker 1: an hour in there is on a fall league showing

1680
01:13:34,479 --> 01:13:38,000
Speaker 1: improved commands. So he's another top one hundred prospect I

1681
01:13:38,120 --> 01:13:40,280
Speaker 1: believe one of the only fews that they have in

1682
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 1: their system. They've Alec Baum as well, who could make

1683
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:44,920
Speaker 1: it up this year at third base, so maybe bomb.

1684
01:13:45,040 --> 01:13:48,400
Speaker 1: You know, if King Eary doesn't fulfill his potential, Alec Baum,

1685
01:13:48,520 --> 01:13:51,400
Speaker 1: which to state guy can can make his way to

1686
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:53,960
Speaker 1: the big leagues. But other than that, King Grey, Spencer Howard,

1687
01:13:54,000 --> 01:13:55,080
Speaker 1: the two guys been looking at from this.

1688
01:13:55,120 --> 01:13:59,040
Speaker 2: Team absolutely, so we're going to look at possibly taking

1689
01:13:59,120 --> 01:14:00,760
Speaker 2: under here. I think you can that I'm going to

1690
01:14:00,800 --> 01:14:03,719
Speaker 2: get an under here on this team. Uh and definitely

1691
01:14:03,800 --> 01:14:07,639
Speaker 2: it is the you know, they don't have the same

1692
01:14:07,720 --> 01:14:09,800
Speaker 2: this They don't have a pen Alonso, they don't have

1693
01:14:10,120 --> 01:14:12,240
Speaker 2: what the Braves have with a Quna and some of

1694
01:14:12,320 --> 01:14:14,679
Speaker 2: the other hitters on that team. They don't they don't

1695
01:14:14,680 --> 01:14:17,240
Speaker 2: really have some of the sticks to keep up, you know,

1696
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:18,880
Speaker 2: with some of the offense with the other teams in

1697
01:14:18,960 --> 01:14:22,160
Speaker 2: the division. And you know, I think I'm gonna I'm

1698
01:14:22,160 --> 01:14:24,320
Speaker 2: gonna roll with this just from a pitching standpoint, because

1699
01:14:24,320 --> 01:14:26,600
Speaker 2: I've never believed in Jake Arietta as he continues to

1700
01:14:26,640 --> 01:14:29,200
Speaker 2: get older. Uh, and so I'm going to roll on

1701
01:14:29,280 --> 01:14:31,600
Speaker 2: an under here with you and anything. Do you have

1702
01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:33,599
Speaker 2: any bets currently on the Phillies or do you think

1703
01:14:33,640 --> 01:14:35,920
Speaker 2: that it's going to be one of those play it

1704
01:14:36,040 --> 01:14:38,360
Speaker 2: before first pitch, or play it as the season goes along,

1705
01:14:38,479 --> 01:14:40,000
Speaker 2: or just play it better? Yet?

1706
01:14:40,880 --> 01:14:43,639
Speaker 1: You know, I, like I said, I had the NL

1707
01:14:43,800 --> 01:14:46,760
Speaker 1: pretty or the ANA least pretty close together based off

1708
01:14:46,800 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 1: of my projection solely, And now that I've physically gone

1709
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:52,240
Speaker 1: through the rosters and looked at what they have and

1710
01:14:52,400 --> 01:14:55,799
Speaker 1: seeing the other projections come out, I've I've become convinced

1711
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:59,280
Speaker 1: that I like this team less than than their number.

1712
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:01,920
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think d D's worth a mention though, because

1713
01:15:01,960 --> 01:15:04,760
Speaker 2: from a defensive standpoint that I mean just because I

1714
01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:08,000
Speaker 2: like d D in fantasy, because I think that there

1715
01:15:08,240 --> 01:15:10,560
Speaker 2: are parts of Yankee stadium for the direction that he

1716
01:15:10,720 --> 01:15:12,800
Speaker 2: was hitting. Some of his power was app a little bit,

1717
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:14,719
Speaker 2: and I think here at Citizens Bank you can actually

1718
01:15:15,040 --> 01:15:16,800
Speaker 2: take it over the fence plenty of more times. So

1719
01:15:17,680 --> 01:15:19,880
Speaker 2: from that perspective, I like d D. But d d's

1720
01:15:19,920 --> 01:15:22,160
Speaker 2: defense does matter when it comes to betting a win

1721
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:25,040
Speaker 2: total on a team. So I you know fully I

1722
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:26,320
Speaker 2: am going to be looking to take d D in

1723
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 2: my fantasy drafts, but at the same time, I'm going

1724
01:15:28,280 --> 01:15:30,360
Speaker 2: to be fading this team and take an under. After

1725
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:31,960
Speaker 2: I do a little bit of shopping and you guys

1726
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:34,280
Speaker 2: can download the action app, take a look at that,

1727
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:36,160
Speaker 2: and we will get our futures in there. I know

1728
01:15:36,240 --> 01:15:38,760
Speaker 2: I added our a's future in there last night. You

1729
01:15:38,880 --> 01:15:41,120
Speaker 2: guys can get your futures in there and tail Sean

1730
01:15:41,160 --> 01:15:42,840
Speaker 2: and I on what we're doing and see if we

1731
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:44,799
Speaker 2: get stuck to put in a win total. I think sucky.

1732
01:15:45,080 --> 01:15:46,479
Speaker 2: I don't know if Stucky likes to do win totals.

1733
01:15:46,520 --> 01:15:47,920
Speaker 2: He told me it's too long to wrap some money

1734
01:15:48,000 --> 01:15:50,800
Speaker 2: up on a team winning game, So we'll see if

1735
01:15:50,800 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 2: we can get him to join us. Let's talk about

1736
01:15:52,840 --> 01:15:57,240
Speaker 2: our favorite NL bets. We'll start off with what is

1737
01:15:57,360 --> 01:16:00,559
Speaker 2: our favorite if we had to bet one player right

1738
01:16:00,600 --> 01:16:03,800
Speaker 2: now from a fantasy perspective, someone that we think is

1739
01:16:04,000 --> 01:16:07,160
Speaker 2: got plenty of value in the market and they're not,

1740
01:16:07,360 --> 01:16:09,760
Speaker 2: you know, they're not being taken high enough. Who is

1741
01:16:09,800 --> 01:16:11,439
Speaker 2: it that we would want to take in the in

1742
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:12,200
Speaker 2: the National League?

1743
01:16:12,760 --> 01:16:15,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Slam and Sam Hilliard from

1744
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:18,760
Speaker 1: the Rockies. This guy's six foot five, two hundred and

1745
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:21,559
Speaker 1: forty pounds. He looks like an NFL tight end. He's

1746
01:16:22,040 --> 01:16:24,280
Speaker 1: really toolsy. He's got a lot of swing and miss

1747
01:16:24,320 --> 01:16:26,720
Speaker 1: in his game, but he put up forty two home

1748
01:16:26,800 --> 01:16:28,920
Speaker 1: runs and twenty four steals between Triple A and the

1749
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:31,439
Speaker 1: Majors last year. That's no joke. And he gets the

1750
01:16:31,520 --> 01:16:34,519
Speaker 1: hit in Colorado, That team I don't think is going

1751
01:16:34,560 --> 01:16:37,400
Speaker 1: to be great. They've kind of soured on Raimel Tapia

1752
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:39,840
Speaker 1: as a prospect. You know, he's another tools a guy

1753
01:16:39,920 --> 01:16:43,120
Speaker 1: who they wanted to give opportunities, but he's a horrendous

1754
01:16:43,160 --> 01:16:46,360
Speaker 1: defender and hasn't really put it together offensively. So I

1755
01:16:46,400 --> 01:16:48,519
Speaker 1: think they're going to give Hilliard to every opportunity in

1756
01:16:48,560 --> 01:16:51,000
Speaker 1: the world to really contribute here, and if he works

1757
01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:53,160
Speaker 1: his way up the lineup, if David Dall misses more time,

1758
01:16:53,200 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: which he's done in the past. There's there's a lot

1759
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 1: of opportunity for Hilliard a really nice season and really

1760
01:16:58,240 --> 01:17:00,920
Speaker 1: surprising people. I mean, look at what Trevor's story has

1761
01:17:01,000 --> 01:17:03,840
Speaker 1: grown into in terms of his power speed combination. You

1762
01:17:03,920 --> 01:17:06,600
Speaker 1: know you're getting a similar type of profile in the

1763
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:07,519
Speaker 1: outfield with Tilure.

1764
01:17:07,880 --> 01:17:09,400
Speaker 2: Well, talk about a guy that took the league by

1765
01:17:09,400 --> 01:17:11,200
Speaker 2: storm of a Trevor story. I'm going to go with

1766
01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:15,280
Speaker 2: Nick Nick Castalanos for the Reds. He's being drafted around

1767
01:17:15,320 --> 01:17:18,439
Speaker 2: fifty ninth right now for his ADP that you know,

1768
01:17:18,520 --> 01:17:20,840
Speaker 2: in a standard roto five x five in a ten

1769
01:17:20,960 --> 01:17:25,160
Speaker 2: team league, that translates to a late fifth round pick.

1770
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:27,320
Speaker 2: But I would absolutely take him in the fourth round.

1771
01:17:27,320 --> 01:17:29,200
Speaker 2: I'd scoop him up and I'd probably get a little

1772
01:17:29,200 --> 01:17:31,920
Speaker 2: bit nervous that he might even last to the fourth

1773
01:17:32,000 --> 01:17:33,560
Speaker 2: round because he's going to become a hot name on

1774
01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:36,840
Speaker 2: draft nights. But he is going to put up massive

1775
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:40,439
Speaker 2: numbers there for Cincinnati. So that is definitely one of

1776
01:17:40,520 --> 01:17:42,840
Speaker 2: the players I'm definitely going to be looking to draft

1777
01:17:42,880 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 2: a little bit earlier. As far as a win total perspective,

1778
01:17:48,720 --> 01:17:50,680
Speaker 2: Is there any other Is there anything else that we

1779
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:52,280
Speaker 2: think out of the you knowl that we would want to.

1780
01:17:52,280 --> 01:17:54,800
Speaker 3: Bet, I'd still play arizone over eighty two and a half.

1781
01:17:55,040 --> 01:17:57,000
Speaker 3: Comfortable with that. You know, I'm higher than the rest

1782
01:17:57,000 --> 01:17:57,800
Speaker 3: of the market on them.

1783
01:17:57,880 --> 01:17:59,760
Speaker 1: But I do like the way that this team looks

1784
01:17:59,800 --> 01:18:02,080
Speaker 1: on We mentioned the Phillies, you know, towards the end

1785
01:18:02,080 --> 01:18:05,400
Speaker 1: of the podcast. Other than that on win totals, I

1786
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:07,599
Speaker 1: think I'm pretty set in the ANAUL at this point

1787
01:18:07,640 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 1: where the market settle.

1788
01:18:09,080 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean for me, we've talked about the Reds,

1789
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:12,840
Speaker 2: about how I like everything with the Reds, with their

1790
01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:15,960
Speaker 2: futures or division futures, their win totals. You know, I

1791
01:18:16,040 --> 01:18:18,640
Speaker 2: think for me a team that I would want to

1792
01:18:18,720 --> 01:18:21,040
Speaker 2: take a bet on for from a win total perspective,

1793
01:18:21,479 --> 01:18:24,120
Speaker 2: I'm going to go against the San Francisco Giants. I

1794
01:18:24,240 --> 01:18:26,160
Speaker 2: know Sean said here during the pod that he kind

1795
01:18:26,160 --> 01:18:28,040
Speaker 2: of liked what he saw out of the roster, but

1796
01:18:28,200 --> 01:18:32,280
Speaker 2: you know, losing Madison Bumgarner, losing Will Smith pretty big

1797
01:18:32,320 --> 01:18:33,800
Speaker 2: things that are coming out of the pen. I don't

1798
01:18:33,800 --> 01:18:35,320
Speaker 2: think this is a team that is going to be

1799
01:18:35,439 --> 01:18:37,640
Speaker 2: buying at the break whatsoever. I said this in the

1800
01:18:37,720 --> 01:18:40,479
Speaker 2: American League podcast. It's like there are certain teams, I

1801
01:18:40,600 --> 01:18:42,920
Speaker 2: think you can you could pretty much figure out if

1802
01:18:42,920 --> 01:18:44,400
Speaker 2: they're going to be buyers or if they're going to

1803
01:18:44,400 --> 01:18:46,960
Speaker 2: be sellers at the trade deadline. And this is a

1804
01:18:47,000 --> 01:18:49,720
Speaker 2: San Francisco team I don't think for any reason, will

1805
01:18:49,720 --> 01:18:52,479
Speaker 2: be anywhere close to the Dodgers. I think other teams

1806
01:18:52,560 --> 01:18:54,559
Speaker 2: in the West are going to probably be ahead of them.

1807
01:18:54,800 --> 01:18:56,839
Speaker 2: They're pitching, I don't think is going to be as efficient.

1808
01:18:57,040 --> 01:18:58,560
Speaker 2: They're not going to be buyers at the break. And

1809
01:18:58,640 --> 01:19:00,160
Speaker 2: what that means is there's going to be a lot

1810
01:19:00,200 --> 01:19:02,200
Speaker 2: of extra kids that get the call up on September

1811
01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:04,840
Speaker 2: first for their cup of coffee. And I mean, if

1812
01:19:04,880 --> 01:19:06,680
Speaker 2: you're going to bet on and over with them, you're

1813
01:19:06,680 --> 01:19:08,439
Speaker 2: going to say that you know, you're going to say

1814
01:19:08,479 --> 01:19:10,080
Speaker 2: that Drew Smiley is going to be healthy. You're going

1815
01:19:10,160 --> 01:19:11,759
Speaker 2: to say that Buster Posey is going to be efficient

1816
01:19:11,800 --> 01:19:13,960
Speaker 2: behind the plate. You're going to think that Brandon Belt

1817
01:19:14,120 --> 01:19:16,559
Speaker 2: hits the entire season instead of just being streaky all

1818
01:19:16,640 --> 01:19:19,080
Speaker 2: the time. Just not a roster that screams that they're

1819
01:19:19,120 --> 01:19:22,599
Speaker 2: going to challenge for anything whatsoever. Giants last year had

1820
01:19:22,640 --> 01:19:25,000
Speaker 2: thirty eight wins in one run ball games and they

1821
01:19:25,040 --> 01:19:27,720
Speaker 2: went thirteen and three in extra innings that just can't

1822
01:19:27,760 --> 01:19:30,600
Speaker 2: happen again. I mean, it's pretty pretty unbelievable what they

1823
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:32,640
Speaker 2: were able to pull off last year, and I just

1824
01:19:32,680 --> 01:19:34,439
Speaker 2: don't think this is a year that the San Francisco

1825
01:19:34,479 --> 01:19:35,760
Speaker 2: Giants are going to be buying. So I'll take an

1826
01:19:35,840 --> 01:19:39,120
Speaker 2: under here, Sean, What do you got from a future's

1827
01:19:39,160 --> 01:19:42,320
Speaker 2: market perspective? Is there anything that I know we've mentioned

1828
01:19:42,360 --> 01:19:44,200
Speaker 2: the Reds, but is there anything else from a division

1829
01:19:44,240 --> 01:19:47,280
Speaker 2: or a World series perspective, Maybe that you haven't bought yet,

1830
01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:48,720
Speaker 2: but maybe that you got your eye on that you

1831
01:19:48,800 --> 01:19:50,120
Speaker 2: may buy by the end of spring training.

1832
01:19:50,920 --> 01:19:53,320
Speaker 1: If I saw anything over fifty to one on either

1833
01:19:53,400 --> 01:19:55,920
Speaker 1: Cincinnati or Arizona, I'd add more. You know, I have

1834
01:19:56,000 --> 01:19:58,800
Speaker 1: Arizona at sixty six, Cincinnati I believe at fifty, So

1835
01:19:59,439 --> 01:20:01,960
Speaker 1: anything like that that would pop, I would just add

1836
01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:04,280
Speaker 1: more on those two teams because I haven't to like

1837
01:20:04,360 --> 01:20:06,960
Speaker 1: them to make the playoffs, you know, either Divisional for

1838
01:20:07,040 --> 01:20:09,880
Speaker 1: the Reds or Wild Card for the d Backs. So

1839
01:20:10,600 --> 01:20:13,400
Speaker 1: other than that, you know, I know we discussed the

1840
01:20:13,479 --> 01:20:17,439
Speaker 1: Reds in depth as these other projection systems have come out,

1841
01:20:17,520 --> 01:20:20,080
Speaker 1: and sort of agreed with where I had my assessment

1842
01:20:20,160 --> 01:20:23,400
Speaker 1: on them. I've considered adding more on Cincinnati. You know that,

1843
01:20:23,560 --> 01:20:26,320
Speaker 1: I think if I had to pick a singular team

1844
01:20:26,520 --> 01:20:29,600
Speaker 1: to upset their division, based on the odds that are

1845
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:31,680
Speaker 1: out there amongst the six, the Reds look like the

1846
01:20:31,760 --> 01:20:37,120
Speaker 1: clear choice. So Cincinnati, there's a chance I'm pushing the

1847
01:20:37,240 --> 01:20:38,479
Speaker 1: chips all in on this team.

1848
01:20:39,479 --> 01:20:42,160
Speaker 2: I agree. I agree now. The team that I'm going

1849
01:20:42,240 --> 01:20:44,040
Speaker 2: to pay place another bet on is not from a

1850
01:20:44,080 --> 01:20:47,320
Speaker 2: World Series perspective, although I will have my eye on

1851
01:20:47,360 --> 01:20:49,400
Speaker 2: them anytime that they have some sort of losing streak

1852
01:20:49,439 --> 01:20:51,360
Speaker 2: during the season, which I don't expect there to be much.

1853
01:20:51,960 --> 01:20:53,519
Speaker 2: But one bet that I do want to make is

1854
01:20:53,520 --> 01:20:55,720
Speaker 2: if the Dodgers happened to creep up a little bit

1855
01:20:55,760 --> 01:20:58,000
Speaker 2: more here Over the next month is pitchers and catchers

1856
01:20:58,040 --> 01:21:01,880
Speaker 2: report and we get into spring training. People are Dodger

1857
01:21:02,000 --> 01:21:05,519
Speaker 2: crazy about this team. Is this team good? Yes, they're great.

1858
01:21:05,960 --> 01:21:08,719
Speaker 2: I mean from a from a paper standpoint, the lineup,

1859
01:21:08,840 --> 01:21:11,040
Speaker 2: the pitching, how deep they are on the farm. They

1860
01:21:11,120 --> 01:21:14,040
Speaker 2: have everything. But at the same time, we talked about

1861
01:21:14,040 --> 01:21:15,920
Speaker 2: the stat the teams that have wind totals in the

1862
01:21:15,920 --> 01:21:19,040
Speaker 2: preseason that are over one hundred, they're over. They don't

1863
01:21:19,040 --> 01:21:21,280
Speaker 2: go over their win totals, and so one hundred and

1864
01:21:21,320 --> 01:21:23,840
Speaker 2: a half is quite a bit. Pokoda has it at

1865
01:21:23,880 --> 01:21:27,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and three. Davenport a hundred. You're at one hundred,

1866
01:21:27,280 --> 01:21:28,599
Speaker 2: and we're at one hundred and a half. So I'm

1867
01:21:28,640 --> 01:21:31,360
Speaker 2: going to shop and once, you know, the craziness of

1868
01:21:31,400 --> 01:21:33,280
Speaker 2: spring training is going on, and it looks like the

1869
01:21:33,360 --> 01:21:35,920
Speaker 2: Dodgers are full strength, I'd say somewhere around the middle

1870
01:21:35,960 --> 01:21:37,759
Speaker 2: of March. If that number gets up around one hundred

1871
01:21:37,760 --> 01:21:39,920
Speaker 2: and two hundred and two hundred and two and a half,

1872
01:21:39,920 --> 01:21:42,040
Speaker 2: I'm an absolute buyer on the under Not that I

1873
01:21:42,120 --> 01:21:44,040
Speaker 2: want to be, but the numbers just way too high.

1874
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:46,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, you remember two years ago they had that huge

1875
01:21:46,520 --> 01:21:49,840
Speaker 1: swoon in April and their World Series odds went way

1876
01:21:49,960 --> 01:21:52,400
Speaker 1: up their divisional odds. I think they became an underdog

1877
01:21:52,439 --> 01:21:54,320
Speaker 1: at some point and they bounced all the way back

1878
01:21:54,320 --> 01:21:56,600
Speaker 1: and ended up winning ninety one games. Their total was

1879
01:21:56,680 --> 01:21:59,080
Speaker 1: ninety six and a half that year, so they didn't

1880
01:21:59,080 --> 01:22:01,439
Speaker 1: clear the bar that year. All it takes is an

1881
01:22:01,439 --> 01:22:03,680
Speaker 1: extended losing streak at any point in the season to

1882
01:22:03,720 --> 01:22:06,439
Speaker 1: push you under. And at one hundred and three wins,

1883
01:22:06,479 --> 01:22:08,280
Speaker 1: if you're talking about it getting all the way up there.

1884
01:22:08,400 --> 01:22:12,280
Speaker 1: That's an extremely high Bartic clear. So yeah, don't love

1885
01:22:12,360 --> 01:22:14,320
Speaker 1: my under at one hundred, but if it got to

1886
01:22:14,479 --> 01:22:16,439
Speaker 1: one o two one o two and a half, might

1887
01:22:16,479 --> 01:22:17,559
Speaker 1: have to consider adding more.

1888
01:22:17,880 --> 01:22:19,760
Speaker 2: With Pakodo going to one hundred and three, I think

1889
01:22:19,800 --> 01:22:21,559
Speaker 2: there is going to be more over money come into

1890
01:22:21,600 --> 01:22:23,439
Speaker 2: the market and the number is going to tick up.

1891
01:22:23,520 --> 01:22:26,120
Speaker 2: So I'll keep my eye on that. And uh, probably

1892
01:22:26,160 --> 01:22:28,679
Speaker 2: sometime around March madness when I'm around Vegas hopping around

1893
01:22:28,720 --> 01:22:31,080
Speaker 2: casinos again, I'll be shopping around for that one hundred

1894
01:22:31,080 --> 01:22:32,080
Speaker 2: and two and a half one hundred.

1895
01:22:32,200 --> 01:22:32,800
Speaker 3: Just don't lose the.

1896
01:22:32,800 --> 01:22:36,200
Speaker 2: Tickets, just I know they're in a safe, all the tickets,

1897
01:22:36,240 --> 01:22:38,560
Speaker 2: all get tickets across so many sports sitting in the

1898
01:22:38,600 --> 01:22:40,400
Speaker 2: safe at the house there. So even if there's a fire,

1899
01:22:40,479 --> 01:22:42,720
Speaker 2: we're good to go. That is gonna do it. We're

1900
01:22:42,760 --> 01:22:46,040
Speaker 2: going to wrap up the National League Podcast. We hope

1901
01:22:46,040 --> 01:22:49,200
Speaker 2: everybody enjoyed this. If you didn't listen already, you can

1902
01:22:49,280 --> 01:22:54,720
Speaker 2: check out our American League podcast. Make sure and rate, review, subscribe,

1903
01:22:54,920 --> 01:22:56,840
Speaker 2: tell a friend, pass it along. We don't know if

1904
01:22:56,880 --> 01:22:58,320
Speaker 2: Sean and I are going to be back during the season,

1905
01:22:58,439 --> 01:23:00,639
Speaker 2: or if there's going to be a steady MLB podcasts,

1906
01:23:00,760 --> 01:23:02,880
Speaker 2: but we will figure that out. And uh, you know,

1907
01:23:03,000 --> 01:23:05,000
Speaker 2: good luck on your bets and and play ball.

1908
01:23:05,320 --> 01:23:06,960
Speaker 3: Make sure to see you at the home run derby

1909
01:23:07,000 --> 01:23:07,559
Speaker 3: at the latest.

1910
01:23:09,840 --> 01:23:12,400
Speaker 2: Absolutely and with that that'll do it. Good Luck on

1911
01:23:12,439 --> 01:23:15,120
Speaker 2: your best of season and remember always take a Sunday

1912
01:23:15,240 --> 01:24:05,160
Speaker 2: under on Goodaway Day. It's free money. Right, We're finished

1913
01:24:05,240 --> 01:24:05,599
Speaker 2: talking