1
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,280
Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers Name with Ryan Grodowski. Thank

2
00:00:05,320 --> 00:00:06,960
Speaker 1: you guys for being here. I have a little bit

3
00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:08,680
Speaker 1: of a cold today, so if my voice sounds a

4
00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,920
Speaker 1: little strange, I apologize. Today's an interesting episode because you know,

5
00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:14,840
Speaker 1: I've done a lot of episodes and immigration and the

6
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,079
Speaker 1: midterms and some on AI. But I wanted to do

7
00:00:17,239 --> 00:00:19,720
Speaker 1: a look around the world and what was going on

8
00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:23,600
Speaker 1: with some developments in Europe, especially in our mother country

9
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,080
Speaker 1: of Great Britain. First though, let's talk about something that's

10
00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,800
Speaker 1: happening in June in Switzerland. Switzerland and its neighboring country

11
00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,680
Speaker 1: of Liechenstein have some of the most fascinating governments in

12
00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,680
Speaker 1: all Western Europe. I actually Leeches Sign has the most

13
00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,240
Speaker 1: fascinating government. It's the only nation in Europe where the

14
00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,080
Speaker 1: monarch has gained more power over the last twenty years

15
00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:47,440
Speaker 1: instead of less. Anyway, Switzerland, it's just like a little

16
00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,240
Speaker 1: fun fact that's not like to do with the topic.

17
00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,120
Speaker 1: But Switzerland, they have a very different form of government

18
00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:54,639
Speaker 1: than the one that we have in America. So they

19
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,280
Speaker 1: have a direct democracy, they have federalism. They have a

20
00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:02,120
Speaker 1: bicameral federal assembly of both elected officials that are coming

21
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,680
Speaker 1: right from the voters as well as people who represent

22
00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,840
Speaker 1: the local canons. Basically their version of states, like their

23
00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:09,280
Speaker 1: version of a Senate. It would be like if the

24
00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,720
Speaker 1: Senate and the House had one chamber and instead of

25
00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,480
Speaker 1: a president, they have an executive committee which is elected

26
00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:19,000
Speaker 1: by parliament, and the head of the council rotates annually.

27
00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,320
Speaker 1: So one year the far left, the next year could

28
00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:23,440
Speaker 1: be the far right. But it doesn't matter because at

29
00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:25,320
Speaker 1: the end of the day they have this grand coalition

30
00:01:25,480 --> 00:01:28,440
Speaker 1: with all these major parties trying to work together on policy.

31
00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:32,600
Speaker 1: I know what I just described seems completely like foreign

32
00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,759
Speaker 1: to Americans, but I promise you it works for them anyway.

33
00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,600
Speaker 1: And they have direct democracy, which works also well for

34
00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,680
Speaker 1: them because they have a very high intelligent population, very

35
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:47,039
Speaker 1: connected to the nation well anyway. The largest party in

36
00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,280
Speaker 1: Switzerland is current of the Swiss People's Party, is a

37
00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:54,200
Speaker 1: national populist national conservative political party, and it has been

38
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 1: in power for the longest time of any country in

39
00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,120
Speaker 1: all of Europe. They've had the continual largest of when

40
00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:04,320
Speaker 1: the largest party elected to the parliament for the longest

41
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:05,600
Speaker 1: period of time since nineteen nine nine.

42
00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:06,480
Speaker 2: That's longer.

43
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:11,079
Speaker 1: That's a longer series of unbroken power than even President

44
00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:15,320
Speaker 1: orbon Over in Hungary. In the last election twenty twenty three,

45
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:17,800
Speaker 1: they earned twenty eight percent of the vote, which you know,

46
00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:19,880
Speaker 1: to us doesn't seem like very much, but in a

47
00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:24,360
Speaker 1: multi party system that's pretty significant. The second largest party

48
00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:28,200
Speaker 1: only got eighteen percent. So since they've been in office

49
00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:30,080
Speaker 1: since nineteen ninety nine, they have done a lot of

50
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:33,919
Speaker 1: things through direct democracy. A bunch of initiatives that they've passed,

51
00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,720
Speaker 1: including the ban of Islamic minarets on the top of mosques,

52
00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,080
Speaker 1: which kind of slowed down construction of mosque in Switzerland.

53
00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,920
Speaker 1: They also passed in twenty fourteen a ban on mass immigration.

54
00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:50,400
Speaker 1: That initiative actually when it went before the Parliament was

55
00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:54,560
Speaker 1: actually watered down substantially because in an effort to appease

56
00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,519
Speaker 1: the European Unions, Switzerland is not in the European Union.

57
00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,440
Speaker 1: Switzerland famously neutral in all things, but they do participate

58
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,720
Speaker 1: in the EU Single Market, which guarantees the free movement

59
00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:09,320
Speaker 1: of people. The final scraped immigration. The final version rather

60
00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:13,680
Speaker 1: scraped immigration quotas, but it ordered a prioritization of Swiss

61
00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 1: residents rather than foreign workers and locations where unemployment is

62
00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:22,399
Speaker 1: above average, huge betrayal. The voters wanted strict immigration reduction

63
00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:26,320
Speaker 1: twelve years ago, so now twenty twenty six, twelve years later,

64
00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,600
Speaker 1: they are back. The Swiss People's Party is back with

65
00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,720
Speaker 1: a new initiative, and that is a very strict form

66
00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:37,040
Speaker 1: of immigration restrictionism. They are setting a cap at the

67
00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:41,680
Speaker 1: national population of ten million people. Currently the country is

68
00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:45,800
Speaker 1: nine million people. Remember, Switzerland's a tiny country surrounded by mountains,

69
00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:50,240
Speaker 1: with a mass influx of immigrants that have made the

70
00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:53,760
Speaker 1: cost of living exceptionally high. It's very, very very highest,

71
00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:55,640
Speaker 1: the highest, and I think all of Europe aside from

72
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,720
Speaker 1: like you know, small city states like Monaco. Foreigners make

73
00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:02,400
Speaker 1: up twenty seven percent of the population, with forty percent

74
00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,240
Speaker 1: of the population having at least one immigrant parent or

75
00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:10,920
Speaker 1: one immigrant person in your household. Very large population immigrants,

76
00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 1: but most of those immigrants are European. They're mostly Italian, German, Portuguese, French, Spanish.

77
00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:20,120
Speaker 1: Eighty three percent of all immigrants in Switzerland are Europeans,

78
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,440
Speaker 1: particularly from Western Europe. Still, it doesn't matter, it's not

79
00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:27,839
Speaker 1: about identity in this case. It's strictly about the fact

80
00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,680
Speaker 1: that the cost of living in the housing crisis is rising.

81
00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:32,120
Speaker 2: Too fast for native Swiss.

82
00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,120
Speaker 1: And this Swiss People's Party also wants to protect the

83
00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:40,559
Speaker 1: integrity of Switzerland's demography. But of their geography. They don't

84
00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,719
Speaker 1: want cities everywhere. They like their towns looking a certain way.

85
00:04:43,720 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 1: They like the fact that they have so much nature

86
00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,800
Speaker 1: around them. They like not building big buildings on every

87
00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:53,000
Speaker 1: mountain across the entire country. Supporters of this initiative say

88
00:04:53,400 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 1: it will be extremely difficult to gain citizenship and permanent

89
00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:02,160
Speaker 1: residency to this country once the initiative pass, and they

90
00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,719
Speaker 1: say once the number hits nine point five million people,

91
00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,160
Speaker 1: they'd only be five hundred thousand short. It will revise

92
00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,760
Speaker 1: the free movement of people agreement with the European Union.

93
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:15,599
Speaker 1: The election occurs in June, and the first opinion poll

94
00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:18,279
Speaker 1: that has come out in December founds the Swiss People

95
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,000
Speaker 1: Party support for the referendum is forty eight percent while

96
00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,560
Speaker 1: forty one percent opposed. So this could very much pass

97
00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,320
Speaker 1: in Switzerland, which we the first country to say we're

98
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:32,080
Speaker 1: capping the population growth, We're capping the number of immigrants period.

99
00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:34,880
Speaker 1: Switzerland has a current has a fertility rate of one

100
00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,440
Speaker 1: point two eight children per woman, which is very low,

101
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:39,560
Speaker 1: so it's not like they're going to have this baby

102
00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 1: boom that will increase the population. It's very unlikely that

103
00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,360
Speaker 1: naturally will get to ten million. They'll probably shrink actually,

104
00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,800
Speaker 1: and this will be one of the most significant cuts

105
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,960
Speaker 1: to immigration and population, by the way, in all of

106
00:05:53,040 --> 00:05:55,760
Speaker 1: Western Europe. It will be interesting to see what happens.

107
00:05:55,800 --> 00:05:57,640
Speaker 1: I'll probably talk about it when we see what the

108
00:05:57,720 --> 00:06:01,040
Speaker 1: vote is. Unfortunately, I have no political content in Switzerland,

109
00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:02,400
Speaker 1: so I can't really get someone on the show to

110
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,880
Speaker 1: talk about it. But it will be interesting. And speaking

111
00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:07,479
Speaker 1: of a country though, I do have a lot of

112
00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,080
Speaker 1: context in and that I am a little we're a

113
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,680
Speaker 1: little closer with is Great Britain. So let's talk about

114
00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,440
Speaker 1: what's going on in the UK. Prime Minister Kirre Starmer.

115
00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:19,480
Speaker 1: He is of the left wing Labor Party. He's in deep,

116
00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:20,880
Speaker 1: deep trouble.

117
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:21,360
Speaker 2: Now.

118
00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,479
Speaker 1: Remember his party won a massive victory back in twenty

119
00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:27,960
Speaker 1: twenty four, ending the decade control from the Conservative Party.

120
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,159
Speaker 1: His party is sixty two percent of all the seats

121
00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,400
Speaker 1: in Parliament. But despite winning such a big election two

122
00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,480
Speaker 1: years ago, according to you gov, Starmar's approval rating stands

123
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:44,000
Speaker 1: at nineteen percent. That's Prince Andrew territory. The party is

124
00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,159
Speaker 1: absolutely going to be decimated in the next election and

125
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 1: they know it. Of course, there are many reasons for

126
00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 1: this starmar that Starmer owns, some that Starmer doesn't own.

127
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,200
Speaker 1: But there is a big housing crisis in England, there's

128
00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:59,840
Speaker 1: an immigration crisis, there's stagnation on the economic front. The

129
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:03,720
Speaker 1: recent controversy that has set up this domino effect. Who

130
00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,839
Speaker 1: take down Starmer and his government is Jeffrey Epstein, which

131
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 1: I know sounds completely wild, like Jeffrey Epstein is.

132
00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:15,360
Speaker 3: A conversation starter in the United States for thinking that's

133
00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:18,440
Speaker 3: interesting going on for a controversial figure, for a lot

134
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:24,000
Speaker 3: of conspiracy theories, but taking out a government seems very shocking.

135
00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,840
Speaker 1: It all has to do with a man named Peter Mandelshn.

136
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 1: He is the center of this. I've spoken of British

137
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:32,760
Speaker 1: friends who are in the political circles and they say

138
00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 1: Peter is not just an influential figure around Starmer. Peter

139
00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:41,920
Speaker 1: is the brains behind Starmer. Peter is the person who

140
00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,160
Speaker 1: saw Starmer's potential and said, I will get you elected

141
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 1: to office. We will have this election victory, and I

142
00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,240
Speaker 1: will set the course of what goes on, and you

143
00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,240
Speaker 1: will be the figure head. That's what they say in

144
00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:55,560
Speaker 1: Britain around him, they actually call him the Prince of Darkness. Well,

145
00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,800
Speaker 1: he has had many cabinet positions in the British government.

146
00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,160
Speaker 1: He was appointed actually as the ambassador of the United

147
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,200
Speaker 1: States in December twenty twenty four. That is the most

148
00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,920
Speaker 1: prestigious ambassador job in the UK, and he is known

149
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,120
Speaker 1: to have many contacts with Jeffrey Epstein. There were a

150
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:14,200
Speaker 1: lot of flags raised and during the vetting process to

151
00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:19,040
Speaker 1: become ambassador, as well as being part of Starmar's inner circle,

152
00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,800
Speaker 1: they included a lot of questions about Jeffrey Epstein and

153
00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,120
Speaker 1: Starmar kind of brushed them aside. But when emails were

154
00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,560
Speaker 1: leaked in the Epstein files showing that not only was

155
00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:32,120
Speaker 1: he a confident of Jeffrey Epstein, but he remained close

156
00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:36,000
Speaker 1: with Epstein even after he was convicted, even after he

157
00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:41,040
Speaker 1: was in jail. Mandison was absolutely okay with everything that

158
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,480
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein had been incredibly accused of or had been

159
00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,800
Speaker 1: charged of it. He's never found guilty, obviously, because he

160
00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,440
Speaker 1: died in prison before he went to trial. Anyway, in

161
00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,360
Speaker 1: the emails, he jokes with Epstein about women. He jokes

162
00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 1: with Epstein about strippers. It's not a good look. He

163
00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,280
Speaker 1: had to Mandison had to resign right after all this happened,

164
00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 1: and Starmar apologized on behalf of his government, saying I'm

165
00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,400
Speaker 1: so sorry I believed all his lies that he wasn't

166
00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 1: actually this close with Epstein. It's my fault. I was bad,

167
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:13,199
Speaker 1: you know, bad timing or bad bad judgment on my part. Nonetheless,

168
00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:18,120
Speaker 1: members of Starmer's cabinet are leaving in droves. The door

169
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,760
Speaker 1: is now revolving as people leave one after the other.

170
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:24,360
Speaker 1: And in British politics it is very traditional when your

171
00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,480
Speaker 1: cabinet starts leaving, that is the sign your government's about

172
00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:33,040
Speaker 1: to collapse. So, with top officials leaving Starmer left and right,

173
00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,200
Speaker 1: multiple parties are now calling on him to resign. Will

174
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:40,760
Speaker 1: the Epstein files bring down the United Kingdom's government? That

175
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 1: question is coming up next. James Johnson is the president

176
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,680
Speaker 1: of J and L Partners, a former polster for Prime

177
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,320
Speaker 1: Minister Theresa May, who's also known as the best dancer

178
00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,280
Speaker 1: in the UK. Thank you so much for being here, James,

179
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,320
Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. You're on this podcast once before.

180
00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:00,400
Speaker 1: Is Starmar done?

181
00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:04,280
Speaker 4: I think it depends on which expiring date you're putting on.

182
00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:06,760
Speaker 4: If he's if you're asking is he going to be

183
00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:08,839
Speaker 4: Prime minister by the end of the year, I would

184
00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:10,040
Speaker 4: say almost certainly.

185
00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:10,200
Speaker 1: Not.

186
00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:13,360
Speaker 4: If he's saying is he done imminently, I think he's

187
00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,040
Speaker 4: brought himself some more time. He does appear to have

188
00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,240
Speaker 4: got his cabinet behind him. He's also in a very

189
00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:24,200
Speaker 4: fortunate position whereby his leadership rivals are not ready. It

190
00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,320
Speaker 4: is much easier to de throne a conservative prime minister,

191
00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,679
Speaker 4: where you just need a certain percentage of the Parliamentary

192
00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,840
Speaker 4: Party saying they want them gone.

193
00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:36,680
Speaker 5: We saw that happen to Johnson over and over again.

194
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,160
Speaker 4: But with Labor you need to have a round eighty

195
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:46,160
Speaker 4: MPs united behind a candidate on paper, and that's obviously

196
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,600
Speaker 4: a lot harder. So he's brought himself some room. But

197
00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,240
Speaker 4: there is absolutely no doubt that his political authority has

198
00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,960
Speaker 4: been pretty brutally wounded by the last few few weeks

199
00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 4: and months. How much so I listened to a lot

200
00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,000
Speaker 4: of British podcast his antigty. Some of my British friends,

201
00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:06,800
Speaker 4: my starry ones like Smartlanes like you, but Peter mandelssh,

202
00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:11,600
Speaker 4: he is They have basically told me that Peter was

203
00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,439
Speaker 4: the brains and Kre was here, Starmer was the face.

204
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,360
Speaker 4: That there would be no cure Starmer without Mandelson. That's

205
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:21,679
Speaker 4: how close they were. This wasn't a casual business relationship.

206
00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,320
Speaker 4: This was this was like almost like a father son

207
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:28,240
Speaker 4: type figure. So I think that is probably overdoing it.

208
00:11:28,280 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 4: I think that Mandelson definitely was influential. I think he

209
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,200
Speaker 4: was not just working on the American side, but he

210
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:40,559
Speaker 4: was also giving advice on the cabinet of cabinet appointments

211
00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:43,160
Speaker 4: and some of the domestic challenges. And Peter Manilson was

212
00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:44,920
Speaker 4: someone who's been in the labor movement for more than

213
00:11:44,960 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 4: forty years. He was an architect of Tony Bear's victory

214
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 4: in nineteen ninety seven. He was key to New Labor

215
00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,920
Speaker 4: throughout the two thousands, and although he had a bit

216
00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:55,959
Speaker 4: of a quiet period twenty tens, he was also behind

217
00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,600
Speaker 4: the scenes advising a kisty on how to get back

218
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,240
Speaker 4: into power in twenty twenty four. So he was definitely

219
00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,640
Speaker 4: an influential figure, don't get me wrong, but I would

220
00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,240
Speaker 4: not characterize it in that way. I think the real

221
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,640
Speaker 4: closeness in returns of relationships was Kiirs Starmer and his

222
00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,680
Speaker 4: chief of staff Morgan McSweeney. And Morgan McSweeney resigned last

223
00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:17,720
Speaker 4: week last weekend. They did have a very tight relationship

224
00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:20,080
Speaker 4: and I think it's hard to see how Kiers Starmer

225
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:23,040
Speaker 4: functions well without him. He can live without Manison, but

226
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 4: can he live without McSweeney. And it was really interesting

227
00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,400
Speaker 4: because on Monday there was this period of complete quiet

228
00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 4: where no one in the cabinet was getting behind Kairs Starmer,

229
00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,040
Speaker 4: and some people read that as saying, well, the cabinet

230
00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:35,440
Speaker 4: are not supportive of the Prime minister.

231
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,320
Speaker 5: Actually, if you've been in Number ten.

232
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,840
Speaker 4: And I've been in there and you know, been watching

233
00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,440
Speaker 4: these issues closely since that period, actually what that was

234
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:46,320
Speaker 4: a reflection of was that clearly no one in Number

235
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 4: ten was saying get the cabinet out, no one was

236
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:53,080
Speaker 4: orchestrating the political defense. And that spoke to the absence

237
00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:56,080
Speaker 4: of Morgan McSweeney, who, for whatever his faults might be,

238
00:12:56,160 --> 00:12:59,120
Speaker 4: and these chiefs of staff are always always have their faults,

239
00:12:59,280 --> 00:13:01,320
Speaker 4: you know, he was very very close to Stalma and

240
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 4: he was a dua. You know, he did get things

241
00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:05,840
Speaker 4: done in Number ten and you could see the absence

242
00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 4: of that. So I think it's the lack of that

243
00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,280
Speaker 4: relationship that's going to be difficult for Stalma because he's

244
00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 4: lost his political mind basically, And you know, Stalmer is

245
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:20,960
Speaker 4: many things, he is not a political thinker and when politics,

246
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:21,600
Speaker 4: that's tough, right.

247
00:13:21,920 --> 00:13:24,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I want in the American audience, I want

248
00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:28,120
Speaker 1: to make the understand in the UK, the cabinet are

249
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,520
Speaker 1: also elected MPs. They're also elected members of Parliament. So

250
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,760
Speaker 1: it's not like in America where Marco Rubyo doesn't have

251
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,600
Speaker 1: to face voters. All these cabinet members have to face

252
00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 1: voters in the next re election. And in the last election,

253
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:43,839
Speaker 1: a lot of Tory cabinet members, even ones I really liked,

254
00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,160
Speaker 1: they lost because being part of the government doesn't mean

255
00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,280
Speaker 1: they're never accountable. The accountable you're held accountable every election cycle.

256
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:53,160
Speaker 1: So that's unique and that's different, and that's why there's

257
00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:55,680
Speaker 1: a lot of when cabinet members resigned, it really does

258
00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 1: mean something because they're resigning from from It really means

259
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,880
Speaker 1: it's a big thing for cab members to leave. So

260
00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:07,080
Speaker 1: who would be the person to Shank Starmar in the

261
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,480
Speaker 1: Labor Party if what happened?

262
00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:12,680
Speaker 4: And you're right, Ryan, because not only are they elected,

263
00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:16,120
Speaker 4: they're also the people who want to be the next leader.

264
00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,560
Speaker 4: In terms of cabinet, Where's Streeting is the one to watch.

265
00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 4: He's currently the Health Secretary, so in charge of health policy,

266
00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,320
Speaker 4: the National Health Service, those kinds of things. He is

267
00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,680
Speaker 4: in the sort of orbit of people that definitely want

268
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,160
Speaker 4: to be Prime minister, and he is definitely positioning himself

269
00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 4: to be so. One of the other events in the

270
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,920
Speaker 4: last week in British politics was that where Streeting released

271
00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,960
Speaker 4: all of his WhatsApp messages with Peter Mandelson to try

272
00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 4: and get you know, the bad stuff out the door

273
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:47,160
Speaker 4: first and show that he's squeaky clean. They were quite

274
00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 4: embarrassing for him, but ultimately probably better to get them

275
00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:50,480
Speaker 4: out now than later.

276
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,200
Speaker 5: So he is a big one.

277
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 4: There's Ed miller Band, who avid followers of British politics

278
00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,200
Speaker 4: will recognize as having been Labor Leader between twenty ten

279
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,520
Speaker 4: and twenty fifteen. He lost an election to David Cameron,

280
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:07,400
Speaker 4: clearly did not become Prime minister, but he is eyeing

281
00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:12,080
Speaker 4: up the top job again. Apparently he's currently Shadow Energy Secretary.

282
00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,240
Speaker 4: He's doing a lot of stuff on for example, Net zero.

283
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 4: But then there are also people who aren't in the

284
00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 4: cabinet who could deliver the killer blow to Starmer, and

285
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:23,120
Speaker 4: the big one is Angela Rayner. She is a Northern MP.

286
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:28,400
Speaker 4: She was previously dempty Prime Minister under Starmer, perhaps to

287
00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:32,400
Speaker 4: resign because of controversies over her taxes. But she is

288
00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,040
Speaker 4: still you know, despite that she's not been put in

289
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:36,000
Speaker 4: the political graveyard.

290
00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 5: She's still very active.

291
00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 4: She's very popular on the left and you know, in

292
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:42,000
Speaker 4: many ways her being out the cabinet allows her to

293
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 4: be a bit more direct and a bit more open.

294
00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:46,600
Speaker 4: Like I said earlier, none of these people are ready

295
00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 4: to go just yet. Where Streeting doesn't yet have the

296
00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 4: numbers or the sort of sense of momentum, Millerban needs

297
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,160
Speaker 4: more time. Angela Rayner is actually waiting for a report

298
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 4: to come back on her taxes from the UK equivalent

299
00:15:57,560 --> 00:16:00,920
Speaker 4: of the IRS, So she's waiting for that. I'm not

300
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:04,320
Speaker 4: Helpstalma because they're wielding the knife, there's no doubt about that.

301
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:06,600
Speaker 4: But nobody is actually quite ready to come out.

302
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 2: In the shadows.

303
00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,040
Speaker 1: The way that it works in the UK is there's

304
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 1: not a fixed election date, right, It's not like America

305
00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 1: or it's every November vers Tuesday of November every four

306
00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,840
Speaker 1: years they have and they can call an election at

307
00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 1: any time until a certain date in twenty twenty nine.

308
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 1: So he has some runway time and he thinks he's

309
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 1: been and he's telling me all, I'm going to hold

310
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,160
Speaker 1: out until I will be sitting for the next election.

311
00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 1: What are the chances? I mean, I don't what does

312
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 1: what does the rise of Nigel Farage also do to

313
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 1: impact the fear among among labor voters and labor members

314
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,680
Speaker 1: in the sense of this, they're so afraid of Nigel

315
00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:46,160
Speaker 1: farrag being the next prime minister that they may rally

316
00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:48,040
Speaker 1: around the chief or look for a new one who

317
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: could actually fight off Forage because they see Farage's numbers

318
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 1: and they really haven't fallen, you know, at all. Basically

319
00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 1: he's been holding steady around thirty percent for quite some time.

320
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,640
Speaker 1: So well, I mean, what is the chances It's that

321
00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 1: Farage plays a big thing, either hurrying as a starmmar

322
00:17:03,560 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 1: or keeping starmer.

323
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:05,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

324
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 4: I think ultimately this means that Labor will make a

325
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 4: change because they will need an electable leader because unlike

326
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 4: how they viewed my former boss Theresa may or, unlike

327
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 4: how they viewed Richie Sunak or even to an extent

328
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,320
Speaker 4: how they view Boris Johnson. They are scared of Farage,

329
00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,159
Speaker 4: you know, they think he's the devil incarnate, you know,

330
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:29,600
Speaker 4: they think he's the sort of you know that the

331
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,360
Speaker 4: hard right winger who's going to you know, come and

332
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 4: wreck the country. That's their view. And by there I

333
00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 4: mean people who are on the left of the Labor Party,

334
00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 4: but also voters who are currently voting for the Greens

335
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,879
Speaker 4: or the Liberal Democrats to other left leaning parties in

336
00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 4: British politics, who Labor will need to win back if

337
00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 4: they want to have a viable contest. As an interesting

338
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:52,320
Speaker 4: poll out last week earlier this week by a firm

339
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 4: called More in Common that does a lot of polling

340
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 4: in the UK, and it found that actually three in

341
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,919
Speaker 4: ten Green voters would rather Ferage Minister than Starmer.

342
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 1: And what that says to me Hillary right.

343
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 4: But they also just like they can't stand Starmer, you know,

344
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 4: for whatever reason, whether it's Israel, Gaza, whether it's like

345
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:14,639
Speaker 4: you know, what they think he stands for. He is

346
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 4: not a contender that people on the left are wanting

347
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 4: to have, you know, a Labor leader should be ninety

348
00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 4: five to five on that question. And to answer your question.

349
00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 5: Directly, Ryan. I think that means that, you know.

350
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 4: The forces do eventually pressure Labor to choose a new leader,

351
00:18:29,119 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 4: and I suspect they end up with a leader a

352
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 4: bit more on the left, not necessarily because the party

353
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 4: membership are incredibly left wing. That actually become a bit

354
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 4: more moderate. Is not the party membership that there was

355
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 4: under Jeremy Corbyn, for example a few years ago, which

356
00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 4: was very far on the left, but more because that

357
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 4: sort of populism, that sense of straight talking, that sense

358
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,400
Speaker 4: of you know, we can take the fight to farrage

359
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 4: exists more on the left. And also they need to

360
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 4: win these left wing voters back. So I suspect that

361
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 4: it does shivvy things along a little.

362
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 1: Bit and rely more on Common is a fine polster.

363
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:06,840
Speaker 1: J L Partners is a much better polster. The It's true,

364
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,040
Speaker 1: the reading more in common polls all the time. The

365
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,280
Speaker 1: last thing I was going to ask you is there

366
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 1: is a by election, which in America is a special election.

367
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,280
Speaker 1: They have a special election for will be our congress

368
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,760
Speaker 1: there parliament in northern England. Matt Goodwin, who you and

369
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 1: I know, is standing for the Reform UK Party there,

370
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 1: and this is in a formerly safe Labor seat that

371
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,159
Speaker 1: Labor was never going to lose. And right now in

372
00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:34,199
Speaker 1: the polls they're underwater. What would a loss in this

373
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:38,680
Speaker 1: special election do or in this by election do for

374
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,679
Speaker 1: for for Starmer?

375
00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:41,199
Speaker 2: Would it kick up the whole we need to make

376
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,200
Speaker 2: a change faster? Good?

377
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 5: Well do yeah.

378
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:49,240
Speaker 4: Look if they come a closest second, then it'll be

379
00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 4: fine because I think a lot of Labor people have

380
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,199
Speaker 4: already built in the fact that Reform might may well

381
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 4: win this seat. You remember in the UK, the prior

382
00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 4: is always you will lose a by election if you're

383
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,440
Speaker 4: a governing party.

384
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,159
Speaker 1: It's very rare to see that they have over a

385
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: fifty percent of last time. This is anacy they should have.

386
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 1: Ever are they should have? No, you're yeah, you're righted

387
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: them in this seat for example.

388
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: No, But by.

389
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 4: Elections are weird and they're artificial and no one is

390
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 4: actually thinking about the things that you have to think

391
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,760
Speaker 4: about at a general election. Nothing's at stake, so it's

392
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,560
Speaker 4: really easy to do a protest for so you know,

393
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,880
Speaker 4: Labor MPs priors will be yeah, that seat's probably gone,

394
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:33,120
Speaker 4: but if they lose badly then I think it probably

395
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 4: does does reopen everything again and the big thing in

396
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,280
Speaker 4: that seat is there's another party on the left, the

397
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 4: Green Party, who are also vying for that seat. Now

398
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 4: if that means that Labor could be pushed into third

399
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 4: and that would be really devastating. That would be devastating.

400
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 4: But look, you know Starmer could get through that wounded.

401
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,080
Speaker 4: But then but okay, but then he's got another set

402
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,280
Speaker 4: of elections in May, which for the context for your

403
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 4: your listeners, there's local elections in England, which is, you know,

404
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 4: lots of council seats that are up for re election

405
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 4: there pay that you place the people that you know

406
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: run towns, run cities.

407
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 1: Run county councilor state legislatives now more like a city council,

408
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: but mayors.

409
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 2: They matter a lot in the UK, these council seats, yeah.

410
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:18,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly.

411
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,720
Speaker 4: And then there's also the elections to the Welsh and

412
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,280
Speaker 4: Scottish Parliament Welsh Assembly in the Scottish Parliament. They are

413
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 4: pretty close to state governments, state state legislatures, i should say,

414
00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,000
Speaker 4: and they matter too. Now you know, Labor is going

415
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: to get epic kicking in those elections as well, and

416
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,679
Speaker 4: that's going to be another reckoning moment for Starmer. So

417
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 4: you know there are plenty of opportunities for his opponents

418
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 4: to make their move, and he's got not just Manchester

419
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 4: and Gordon by election, but another electoral test in May,

420
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 4: which is is haunting him. There's this common misconception out

421
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 4: there that you know, the American America is the one

422
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 4: with all the elections, but actually, if your kids star,

423
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 4: if your kids starmer right now, you don't feel like that.

424
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: Okay, to two lot of the questions One Matt good one,

425
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: if he was in Parliament is going to oh my gosh,

426
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,440
Speaker 1: you thought that Boris Johnson liked the camera. It's not

427
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 1: gonna be funny with with with matc Good one. He'll

428
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 1: be there pontificating every second he possibly can. But two questions,

429
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 1: what is the Conservative Party doing? They gained momentum and

430
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: has has has their leader whose name literally just let

431
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 1: my mind was I'm trying to say it as their

432
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: leader managed to gain some more level of support and

433
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 1: and and get her footing.

434
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 4: Well Ron, it's interesting that because uh very but when

435
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: we do our English go to focus groups, British focus groups,

436
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 4: many people don't know the Conservative leader's name either.

437
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 5: I can look at her.

438
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 2: I know what she looks like and I get, but

439
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: key kemy.

440
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 1: Uh y kemmy baide, Okay, I'm American.

441
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 2: Give me some The fact that I know.

442
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 5: Half these people's process it is not is not as impressive,

443
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 5: but you know it is.

444
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: It is.

445
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,120
Speaker 5: It is a serious point.

446
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 4: You know, voters don't know who she is and it

447
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,359
Speaker 4: speaks to an irrelevance that the Conservative Party has at

448
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 4: the moment. Reform is seen as the sort of leading

449
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 4: opposition party. Nigel Farage is a big part of that,

450
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 4: but he's also won some hefty defections over from Conservatives,

451
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:20,159
Speaker 4: particularly Rob Jenrick, who was Shadow Justice Secretary under the Tories.

452
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 4: He's been a big win for them. He's also won

453
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 4: some other prominent figures too. And you know that the

454
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 4: Conservatives are not on the map right now. Now there

455
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 4: has been that there is a view in Westminster that

456
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 4: Kenny Babknock has really turned it around and Conservatives feel

457
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 4: much better about things. They say that her ratings are up,

458
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 4: they say that she's doing really well at Prime Minister's questions.

459
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,560
Speaker 4: I find it funny listening to this stuff because it

460
00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:46,439
Speaker 4: could not be more different from what I see in

461
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 4: the country. Overall, her ratings have gone up from to

462
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,719
Speaker 4: recover to where they were a year ago. So you know,

463
00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 4: she's gone from like minus five, she went down to

464
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:57,479
Speaker 4: like minus twenty in the summer, and she's gone back

465
00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 4: up to minus five. You know, that is hardly the

466
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 4: stuff of the making of political giants. Also, you know,

467
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 4: the Tory ool rating has stayed firmly around or below

468
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 4: twenty percent. This is the party that has this is

469
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 4: the historically the most successful party in British electoral history,

470
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 4: and it is bumping around at the lowest it's basically

471
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 4: ever poll. So there are real problems for the Conservative

472
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 4: Party and there are real problems that to me suggest

473
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 4: that a lot of this excitement about kemmy Baby knock

474
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 4: is in mirage. And the reason is because you cannot

475
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 4: lose votes to another party on your right. There's not

476
00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 4: enough space in our first past the post electoral system

477
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 4: in the UK for two right wing parties.

478
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 5: It splits the vote.

479
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 4: And you saw what happened in twenty twenty four with that,

480
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,320
Speaker 4: despite only getting thirty four percent of the vote, Labor

481
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:47,359
Speaker 4: won a massive one hundred and fifty whatever it is

482
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 4: seat majority, and they did that through a split right.

483
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,280
Speaker 4: The right remains split and if there's anyone who's in

484
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 4: a better position on the right, it's Nigel Farrad.

485
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,959
Speaker 1: So look, Jarvan would have want to a larn more

486
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 1: seats had Farage not. It's trahe stood down. I guess

487
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: it was twenty nineteen or whatever whenever his lan outside

488
00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 1: election was. Yeah, there was a lot of seats. Now

489
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 1: Farage has more of a claim to sit there and

490
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 1: tell it can me to stand down than she has

491
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,520
Speaker 1: the other way around. I find it all fascinating. British

492
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 1: politics is phenomenal right now. It is the show. You

493
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,439
Speaker 1: can't you have to watch it. It's like a soaproper. You

494
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: have to watch every episode. Thank you so much. Where

495
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 1: we'll go to get.

496
00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 2: More information what you're doing, you're pulling. Your polling is phenomenal. Yep.

497
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 4: So if you follow me on next it's James Johnson

498
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 4: two five to two, and then we've got two handles

499
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 4: for the jail Partners. There's Jail Partner's Polls for the

500
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 4: UK stuff and it's Jay Underscore l Underscore Partners for

501
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:40,320
Speaker 4: our US polling.

502
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 2: Well, thank you so much for coming this podcast. I

503
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 2: really appreciate it. Thanks Ryan. Now it's time for the

504
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 2: Ask Me Anything segment.

505
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: If you want to be part of the ask Me

506
00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,280
Speaker 1: Anything segment, email me Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com.

507
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: It's Ryan at numbers Plural Game podcast dot com. I

508
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 1: actually I've got a lot of emails now, so I'm

509
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 1: going to do a whole ask Anything episode for our

510
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 1: next episode on Monday. I will get to all of them,

511
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: but please keep sending these emails. They make the show

512
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,440
Speaker 1: so great and really make me feel like I'm connected

513
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 1: to somebody because I talk to my producer John all day,

514
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: just me and him, and I I think he's getting

515
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,560
Speaker 1: tired of me anyway. So here's the first questions, the

516
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: question of the day. It comes from Robert. He says, Hey, Ryan,

517
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,199
Speaker 1: listen to your podcast for some time now. I was

518
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 1: a little worry of you when I first started listening,

519
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: as I wasn't sure where you fit into the Woke

520
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: Right Podcast or bro but you won me over with

521
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,639
Speaker 1: your straight shooting and common sense. Thank you, Robert. I

522
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: don't know no one's ever called me a bro before.

523
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 2: Period.

524
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 1: I don't know what the Woke Right Podcast or Broke

525
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: click is. No one invites me to party, so I

526
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 1: wouldn't part of their click. I get like three Christmas

527
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: cards a year. You know, I depressing, that is, Robert.

528
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: My question is to you how electable is JD Vance

529
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 1: in a primary and general election? In my opinion is

530
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: if he could win the hardcore MAGGA right wingers but

531
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 1: not moderate Republicans or Independence, And if I'm right, why

532
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 1: would the GP go with him as opposed to Mark

533
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: or Review, who's a much more able candidate. Thank you,

534
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 1: all right, Robert. I get this question privately all the time.

535
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 1: And there are things that Vice President Vance has done

536
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: that I scratched my head, or that his team has

537
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 1: done that I scratched my head. And I worked for him,

538
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:16,399
Speaker 1: so I know him. I've texted him since he's been

539
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: vice president. I texted him the night of the election

540
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 1: that he asked me, how is it looking? And I said,

541
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: you have your next vice president the United States. So

542
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 1: that was after Loudn County came in. When that number

543
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: came in, I was like, it's over. So JD has

544
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: a large appeal not just with MAGA right wingers, which

545
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: he does, but he also has a huge appeal with

546
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 1: Independence and moderate Republicans. I know that that seems like,

547
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 1: how is that possible? Advance is personally likable. I think

548
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,680
Speaker 1: that his I think the left's narrative that he's weird

549
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: is unfounded by most people who see an average Midwestern dad,

550
00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: the fact that he's got young kids, his wife's pregnant again.

551
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: It doesn't turn that many like what he has said

552
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,119
Speaker 1: in the past, that it was controversial or that you know,

553
00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 1: people have issues with either A people have shrugged off,

554
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: they don't care, they don't think about it, or be

555
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:16,160
Speaker 1: the appealing parts of him outrank that that is unappealing.

556
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 1: And I think that I mean A. When it comes

557
00:28:18,240 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: to approval rating, Vance's approval rating is very closely tied

558
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:25,199
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump's, and I think that right now he

559
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 1: would win right now, As of right now, I think

560
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 1: he would win the primary in Elandslide have to compete.

561
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: There are other Republicans who are gearing up to run.

562
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz is gearing up to run. I've heard out

563
00:28:36,840 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 1: rumors that Steve Bannon is looking at running. I've heard

564
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,120
Speaker 1: rumors that Brian Kemp's looking at running. I've heard rumors

565
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: that Christian Uno is looking at running. So there's a

566
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: lot of Republicans looking to get into this race. He's

567
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: not going to have no primary challenger, which is good.

568
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: I don't think Republican voters want coronations, but that is

569
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: what it is and the party. There's never been a case,

570
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: except for Mike Pence in the last election, where a

571
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 1: former sitting vice president is deny the party's nomination if

572
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 1: they pursue it. So it's it would be a historical

573
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: if he pursues a nomination for him not to get it,

574
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: and he would probably have the biggest appeal. He's gonna

575
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 1: be a fundraising dynamo. And Mark Rubio has said over

576
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: and over again, I'm not running. I mean, that's your

577
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: biggest challenge. I think that there would be some competition

578
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: with Rubio, was not if Rubio was a candidate against Vance.

579
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,800
Speaker 1: But he has said over and over again, I'm not running.

580
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: People have rumored, and JD has never told me this.

581
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 1: I'm not putting this in his mouth. People have rumored

582
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 1: that Rubio and JD will be on the same ticket together.

583
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's true. I'm just repeating what

584
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: I hear as far as rumors go. That if I

585
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: do hear it, I will tell you guys. But I

586
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: I've never heard that from from the Vice president. And yeah,

587
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: I think that that's really it. You don't Rubio is

588
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,400
Speaker 1: not running and if he and there's a chance to

589
00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 1: give me the ticket with with with Vance and Vance

590
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: is very popular not only with the man like a right,

591
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 1: but with the right in general. And it will be

592
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 1: very telling as to where JD takes the Republican Party,

593
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: like it will be very telling where Trump took the

594
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 1: Republican Party. And I think the primary process is going

595
00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: to be fascinating when you have real conversations with different

596
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: fragments of the right as far as ideas go. You know,

597
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: JD has says things in the past like he believes

598
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: that pregnancy should be covered by not prior to birth

599
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:32,480
Speaker 1: birth and pregnancy should be covered by the government.

600
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: I think that he said that. I'm pretty sure he

601
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:34,479
Speaker 2: said that.

602
00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: But that should be something that that that no one

603
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 1: should go broke having a baby. Steve Bannon come out

604
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: there if he's non if he's a candidate talking about

605
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: medicare for all in a really way that Republican voters

606
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: have not heard before. Then you have Ted crusays, I

607
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: think a very very opposite of that those two things,

608
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 1: and it will be a real It will allow for

609
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 1: a real dynamic conversation over policy that I think we

610
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: have been start for because Trump as a man is

611
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: just the whole show, and because sometimes policy can't creep

612
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: in there. And I think that JD online can sometimes

613
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: come off, as you know, a little hard edged. But

614
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: in the debate against Tim Waltz, I thought JD was

615
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: a gigantic home run. I think he'll be a lot

616
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: more likable and formidable on the national stage than some

617
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: people give him credit for. And a lot of accusations

618
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 1: of who JD is are not associated things he's actually

619
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: done is rumors of what you know, rumors from other people.

620
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 1: There is a cabala people who do not like him,

621
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: and I understand that, and he has to win them

622
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 1: over or prove them wrong, or beat them at the

623
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: battle box. It's up to him. So that's your longer shortage.

624
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,959
Speaker 1: Why are they going to go with JD over Rubio?

625
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 1: Because they always nominate the vice president. It's never not

626
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: happened aside from Mike Pence, and he was running inst

627
00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. That's why he lost. And Rubio is not

628
00:31:55,040 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 1: running unless unless fans doesn't And I never forgotten a

629
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: sign that that's not going to happen. So we will

630
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: find out probably within the next nine months ten months,

631
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 1: as the Vice President possibly gears up for a launch,

632
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: and we will be in a very interesting time where

633
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: the next two years will be him both running for

634
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: president and being the vice president, and the Democrats trying

635
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 1: to investigate to try to ruin and sully his candidacy.

636
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 2: We'll see what goes on. Anyway, that's the show. Thank

637
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 2: you so much for listening.

638
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 1: If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe in

639
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 1: the iHeartRadio app app a podcasts wherever gets your podcast.

640
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 2: I will talk to you guys on Monday. It will

641
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 2: be all asked me any things. I'm sure you're going

642
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: to enjoy it. I will see you guys then and

643
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 2: like on YouTube. Thank you,