Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Man Tuesday March Night
Speaker 1: and the Beating the Book podcast. Gil Alexander live from
Speaker 1: the d Our Football Home during football season kind enough
Speaker 1: to host us for a Major League Baseball preview pod.
Speaker 1: And this is the great and I mean this with
Speaker 1: apologies to Joe Peter, who is not on the panel today,
Speaker 1: who has sort of retired from baseball, is down on
Speaker 1: the golf um, so we'll add Joe Peter to the
Speaker 1: amount rushmore. But this is These are the three guys
Speaker 1: I would most want to talk to about baseball period,
Speaker 1: beginning with the first time appearance from a gentleman who
Speaker 1: is known to all from both ESPN and the MLB Network,
Speaker 1: everybody's favorite announcer kind enough to join us, Matt best version.
Speaker 1: Thank you Matt for doing this. I appreciated Gil. I
Speaker 1: get to talk about a game I love with people
Speaker 1: that I love to listen to, and in the case
Speaker 1: with Paul, someone who's material I've been stealing without credit
Speaker 1: for years. So full disclosure. Thank you, Paul, No problem,
Speaker 1: No problem, Paul's could call. Paul couldn't be more tickled. No,
Speaker 1: it's good, buy me, Like I said I told him offline.
Speaker 1: You know, listen to him every single day at my
Speaker 1: life point and I'll be the show. So Matt and
Speaker 1: I have a have a bond here that's now being
Speaker 1: you know, put put together, alive and in persons I
Speaker 1: like it or alive on the phone, I should say
Speaker 1: that is that is the voice. By the way, for
Speaker 1: those who are unfamiliar, I'm sure you are if you've
Speaker 1: listened to this podcast for years or numbers. Game on
Speaker 1: visa from fan Graphs, host of the Sleeper of the
Speaker 1: Bus podcast, Paul Sporer from Austin. I'm sure his dog
Speaker 1: will make an appearance at some point on this on
Speaker 1: videos right here. Okay, Charlotte's okay, she's great. She's great.
Speaker 1: You know, she's there, like yeah, I think that there's
Speaker 1: gonna be like a little bit of wobbliness for forever. Now.
Speaker 1: You know, she has a back issue, but she can
Speaker 1: run a little bit. She's got her attitude back. It's
Speaker 1: all good. Everything's great, and you know none of the
Speaker 1: other stuff that was in that one interview that everybody Okay, Well,
Speaker 1: so I was doing a spot with Gil and like
Speaker 1: just about as it started, she was coming off of
Speaker 1: an issue with with a back issue wish she had
Speaker 1: to take a much of pills and gave her explosive diarrhea,
Speaker 1: which she had in my office uh as the spot started,
Speaker 1: and so I went through like seven minutes uh to
Speaker 1: have to finish the spot. And I'm surprised Gil couldn't
Speaker 1: smell it over over air. It was that bad that
Speaker 1: I thought it would translate through video. And I'm just
Speaker 1: sitting here trying not to react too much too And
Speaker 1: I kept looking back a few times and girls like,
Speaker 1: what are you looking back at? Like he texted me.
Speaker 1: I was like, you don't want to know. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: that was pretty fun, bad back, explosive diarrhea. I think
Speaker 1: you just also described former Golden Spikes Award winner Mark
Speaker 1: Kotze here you reference love and uh and the third
Speaker 1: member of this steam Pale, and I do mean a
Speaker 1: steam uh from under a cloud of smoke. I always
Speaker 1: give him that intro, but really he is as as
Speaker 1: big a baseball savant as I know. It's my buddy
Speaker 1: Jason wine Garden, who bets baseball in all kinds of ways.
Speaker 1: Thank you for being here, Jason, as well. Thank you
Speaker 1: for having me. It's always fun to be on on
Speaker 1: any of your shows. Podcast appreciate it. So this is
Speaker 1: there's a lot to get to here, So so we
Speaker 1: might as well jump in at the sort of most
Speaker 1: macro level, which is just the futures in terms of
Speaker 1: World Series, n L or a L. Obviously, the Dodgers
Speaker 1: extremely top heavy UH in the National League for for
Speaker 1: obvious reasons. In fact, Jason, you had even said on
Speaker 1: the radio side many times they should have props where
Speaker 1: it's Dodgers pictures versus the field for Cy Young, Dodgers
Speaker 1: hitters versus the field for m v P. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's that ridiculous. Is there anything and and Jason, let's
Speaker 1: start with you. Let's do this in reverse order. Is
Speaker 1: there anything in the futures market, either for World Series
Speaker 1: or for a L or n L that you feel
Speaker 1: is bettable right now? I mean, if you have a strong,
Speaker 1: strong conviction and a particular team to really be a
Speaker 1: dark course and then potentially up set the Dodgers, I
Speaker 1: think you could really kind of drill down and find
Speaker 1: quote bettable numbers, you know, on on teams that could
Speaker 1: make the playoffs and potentially be the Dodgers in the series.
Speaker 1: But now I'm I'm not really setting any money on
Speaker 1: any future is, especially because the futures market doesn't close
Speaker 1: when the season starts. I think if there is a
Speaker 1: particular team I want, I'll probably be able to get
Speaker 1: better odds on them in season. Um. And I think
Speaker 1: that's the point that we try to make a lot,
Speaker 1: you know, if you can catch a swoon, like if
Speaker 1: you love the Dodgers, and let's say they just started
Speaker 1: out poorly. Remember the year they lost the Astros in
Speaker 1: the World Series. They started out sixteen and twenty six,
Speaker 1: and I was able to catch that and write at
Speaker 1: the Nadia at five to one to win at all,
Speaker 1: and they didn't get there, but at least it got
Speaker 1: interesting losing to the Astros. But just for clarification, Dodgers
Speaker 1: plus three fifty Yankee six to one, Braves and Padres
Speaker 1: nine to one. That's uh per MGM. Anyway, obviously, odds
Speaker 1: will vary, um Matt. Let's let's go to you here,
Speaker 1: and we'll even start with divisions, because I think this
Speaker 1: gives us a chance you can answer that previous question.
Speaker 1: But if we do divisions, maybe it can be a
Speaker 1: broader conversation. Let's start with the at least um Yankees,
Speaker 1: no surprise, the Yankees right now, Uh, mineus to fifty
Speaker 1: to win. The East Blue Jays, the Baby Js at
Speaker 1: plus five twenty Rays at plus five thirty five. I'm
Speaker 1: actually quoting the circuit numbers here at the d red
Speaker 1: So is not supposed to be their year three to one,
Speaker 1: and then the Orioles, well, let's let's just say a
Speaker 1: thousand to one is what I'm seeing to win the
Speaker 1: A At least that would be something anything in the
Speaker 1: broader Mortkets are specifically at least that you like in
Speaker 1: that group. You know, Yankees, You're it's just too chalky
Speaker 1: for my taste. And I get that they're the Yankees,
Speaker 1: But um, you know, some of the unanswered questions around
Speaker 1: the Blue Jays. Does the young cast of legacy players
Speaker 1: firmly established their own greatness this year? What's Dunedin gonna
Speaker 1: be like? Um? You know, does hung In ru pitch
Speaker 1: to a legit number one all year long? Does Robbie
Speaker 1: Ray have a nice bounce backseason Tenner Roark? Every team
Speaker 1: has questions like this, But I think in the case
Speaker 1: of the Toronto Buffalo Dunedin Blue Jay's, um, I'm willing
Speaker 1: to throw a dart at that and at significant plus
Speaker 1: money to win a division where it's kind of one
Speaker 1: bully and then a bunch of comers. Yeah, why not
Speaker 1: the Toronto Blue Jays? For me, I think that the
Speaker 1: Rays are going to have a hard time replicating the
Speaker 1: kind of pitching success they had last year without Morton
Speaker 1: and snell Um. Replacing those innings with guys like Rich
Speaker 1: Hill and a cast of veterans um is doable, especially
Speaker 1: with the brain trust they have, their Kyle Snyder and
Speaker 1: the the intel that they bring it to make guys better.
Speaker 1: But the long answer to your question, Gill is I
Speaker 1: kind of like Toronto as a mid range dog to
Speaker 1: win that division. All right, plus five um, Paul will
Speaker 1: go to you same question to a at least. And
Speaker 1: by the way, do we have a ballpark factor and dunnet?
Speaker 1: And I'm not even saying that tongue in cheek. I'm
Speaker 1: being serious, Jason, do you have anything on that I
Speaker 1: don't offtop my head. I could look it up. I
Speaker 1: don't have a park factors to them though, yeah, ball
Speaker 1: at least to see it very similarly to Matt, so
Speaker 1: I don't want to just rehash it and say it
Speaker 1: in a different way. I'm definitely not taking the Yankees.
Speaker 1: They're uh, kind of like you said, I'd rather try
Speaker 1: to play if I really like them. I just kind
Speaker 1: of stay detailed on it all year and if they
Speaker 1: hit a swoon where the number gets better, find that number.
Speaker 1: You You probably find a point at some juncture this
Speaker 1: year unless they just dominate wire to wire where you
Speaker 1: can get better than that current number. Um, if you
Speaker 1: really love the Yankees. But I want I want one
Speaker 1: of the up starts there with Tampa Bay or Toronto,
Speaker 1: and I tend to lean toward Toronto similarly to Matt Now.
Speaker 1: The Nate Pierson news is a little bit daunting, but
Speaker 1: I've always been a ross stripling guys, so the fact
Speaker 1: that he's going to replace him for that, for that
Speaker 1: growing injury, at least at the outset of the season.
Speaker 1: But I don't think they're putting a ton on Pierson,
Speaker 1: like he's not a lynch pin to whether or not
Speaker 1: they're successful. I think they've got, you know, a front
Speaker 1: liner in Ryu and then a few guys, you know,
Speaker 1: some guys that they're really trying to figure out where
Speaker 1: they're at. They need a few breakouts in the starting
Speaker 1: realm to really win that division. But the offense is
Speaker 1: just devastating, and I think they've put together quite a
Speaker 1: bullpen too. If Yates gets back on track with Jordan Romano,
Speaker 1: Raphael Dolis, Ryan Baruki, keep an eye on Julian Merryweather.
Speaker 1: To my guy Jason Collette has been absolutely huge on
Speaker 1: him as a potential breakout in either realm as a
Speaker 1: starter or reliever, maybe even as a hybrid who kind
Speaker 1: of has that swingman role. So they've started to really
Speaker 1: put together some pitching. And if if a Pierson or
Speaker 1: if Robbie Ray gets back toward where his best season
Speaker 1: has been. I've never been a huge Robbie Rey guy, though,
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't put a lot on that, or if
Speaker 1: my guy Ross Strippling, who you know, was always great
Speaker 1: with the Dodgers that had a rough season last year,
Speaker 1: if he can come through. Plus, I think there's a
Speaker 1: midseason trade here for a starter that they can get
Speaker 1: for the stretch run um without having to decimate their system.
Speaker 1: I like the Jay's as well. This is completely a
Speaker 1: question for my buddy Randall Gritchard who plays for the
Speaker 1: Blue Jays, because I love to get his reaction on
Speaker 1: this privately, But like, is that line up so good
Speaker 1: that he's platooning this year, Like, what's the story with him?
Speaker 1: It really is, at least at the outset. Now, this
Speaker 1: is a tough one for me because it's a player
Speaker 1: I love, but I am nervous about. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: that Tasker Hernandez is a locked in every day superstar
Speaker 1: now based on I look at that season and I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that it was anything more than like a
Speaker 1: hot fifty game Tasker run that we've seen before. But
Speaker 1: it counts as a season because of the cut off
Speaker 1: and and the fact that we only played two months,
Speaker 1: and so I think there's been a lot of projection
Speaker 1: that's put on him that I'm not sure I agree with.
Speaker 1: So I think as he kind of comes back to
Speaker 1: where Tasker has been in previous years, that will open
Speaker 1: the door for gret Chuck to play. And then of course,
Speaker 1: um in the meantime, he's gonna kind up with Tune
Speaker 1: with to Lez, there will be opportunities for him. I'm
Speaker 1: not If I'm gret Chuck, I'm not too worried. I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna at least get four and fifty point
Speaker 1: appearances with a good shot at five hundred plus. Jason
Speaker 1: anything to add at least divisions. I'd lay the Yankees
Speaker 1: two hundred preferably on credit if I could. Um, I
Speaker 1: think they win the division, and I don't think the
Speaker 1: Blue Jays are bad team. I just think the Yankees
Speaker 1: are probably gonna win the division and there's a little
Speaker 1: bit of value left on credit being the key phrase
Speaker 1: to that, because what is it like macroeconomics want to
Speaker 1: won the opportunity cost of if you don't have credit,
Speaker 1: of just having your money tied up for that long
Speaker 1: sixty two games schedule, but on credit all day long.
Speaker 1: I'll play the minus two hundred. I think that's the
Speaker 1: tough part. By the way, Gail, before we move on,
Speaker 1: I have a little information on Duneeden and how it's
Speaker 1: expected to play, at least from Derek Carty at Derek
Speaker 1: Carty on Twitter does great work with the with the
Speaker 1: bad projection. Um, he has it to be, you know,
Speaker 1: pretty decent as a hitters park. You know, he says
Speaker 1: it's not gonna necessarily be a hitter's haven, uh in
Speaker 1: in best hitters park in the league or anything like that,
Speaker 1: but right now he has it as the seventh best
Speaker 1: hitters park overall and fifth best home run park in
Speaker 1: the league, with obviously some wide airbar caveats that that
Speaker 1: need to apply. There, the fence distance, sixth shortest fence height,
Speaker 1: fifteenth shortest altitude at sea level, and a good batters
Speaker 1: I all plays pretty well for offense there. So I
Speaker 1: got to imagine that that tracks somewhat similarly to Rogers
Speaker 1: Center in terms of how much of a hitters park
Speaker 1: it is. Now the aspects of it might play a
Speaker 1: little bit differently, but Roger Center is a good hitters park,
Speaker 1: So they're going from one good hitters park to another.
Speaker 1: It should be it should be pretty friendly to hit
Speaker 1: and dune Eden I like that answer, PAULI thank you
Speaker 1: for that. If if it was the it was the opposite,
Speaker 1: I would be very upset with that. But I like,
Speaker 1: I like to hear the hitter friendly aspect of the
Speaker 1: Jay's lineup. Met Al Central and let me just say
Speaker 1: this on on the radio side this morning. To me,
Speaker 1: the most bettable things that are out there right now
Speaker 1: are these head to heads that Draft Kings put up,
Speaker 1: and a couple of them are they did a regional
Speaker 1: head to head between the White Sox and the Cubs. Paul,
Speaker 1: you and I talked about this, I think last week
Speaker 1: on the show, and maybe Jason I did. But they've
Speaker 1: got like they've got the White Sox giving twelve and
Speaker 1: a half games to the Cubs, and then I saw
Speaker 1: another one White Sox versus the Twins, just head to
Speaker 1: head with no spread, and the Twins were plus one thirty.
Speaker 1: I'm like, what if? Yeah, So I get it. People
Speaker 1: love the White Sox and I'm not saying they're not
Speaker 1: gonna win the division. Maybe they will. I don't know
Speaker 1: if they will or not. But the White Sox in
Speaker 1: the division market anyway, are plus one ten. Twins are
Speaker 1: creeping up here at circus plus one twenties, so they're
Speaker 1: not that far behind anymore. But you know, try plus
Speaker 1: seven forty five Royals, thirty five to one year Tigers,
Speaker 1: paul a hundred one? Um, how do you? Where do
Speaker 1: you stand on the White Sox, Matt? And are you
Speaker 1: with me that those numbers and head to head seem
Speaker 1: kind of crazy? They do seem crazy. I was unaware
Speaker 1: of those offerings, So in about an hour I'll be
Speaker 1: on that check it out for my own spies. I
Speaker 1: think that the you know, there's so much public support
Speaker 1: right now, so much motivation for the White Sox, and
Speaker 1: it's understandable, but there's some red flags there too, or
Speaker 1: at least some yellow flags. Um. The Luis Roberts season
Speaker 1: was befuddling, and how a guy could could debut with
Speaker 1: such fanfare and seemingly check every box is first passed
Speaker 1: through the league and then just completely cavern out in
Speaker 1: the month of September is a little disconcerting. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure what you've got there, at least short term. Long term,
Speaker 1: we'd all agree talented player and he's going to be
Speaker 1: there for a lot of years. I think they're gonna
Speaker 1: miss James McCann um. And I think that Lucas Gelato's
Speaker 1: public stumping to keep him around was something that we
Speaker 1: all should have paid attention to, and that that dynamic
Speaker 1: they had between McCann and grand doll and and it
Speaker 1: all gets a lot of love in certain communities for
Speaker 1: his pitch framing abilities. I don't think anybody who's actually
Speaker 1: on the field would compare the two defensively in terms
Speaker 1: of handling a staff. McCann's the guy that they all
Speaker 1: wanted back there, and then to take nothing against Yasmini's game,
Speaker 1: So there's some problems. I think some at least caution
Speaker 1: signs regarding the White Sox love that's out there. Having
Speaker 1: said that, though the Indians lost a lot, at least
Speaker 1: a lot of marquee value, they privately feel okay about
Speaker 1: their staff anyway. With Safalian Police Act behind Bieber, they
Speaker 1: seem to invent good starters from places that the uninformed
Speaker 1: public doesn't imagine. The Twins are interesting to me as well,
Speaker 1: and I think, um, if you could just omit the
Speaker 1: month of October from the calendar, that you'd be talking
Speaker 1: about a really good team every year. But they're warning
Speaker 1: signs there too. How much longer can you keep relying
Speaker 1: on Nelson Cruz in his senior statehood to post the
Speaker 1: kind of power numbers that he does. At what point
Speaker 1: do you pull the fire cord on on so No,
Speaker 1: Given last year's god awful numbers in terms of strikeouts
Speaker 1: for plate appearance, he had a hundred and eighty six
Speaker 1: plate appearances and punched out ninety times, and we saw
Speaker 1: what that did in a short, super short post series. Again,
Speaker 1: their famine lineups just don't work. Yes, they're better defensively
Speaker 1: with Simmons and getting Polanco out of that spot um.
Speaker 1: But I just think that there are problems there too.
Speaker 1: Given all that, I think the White Doctor the best
Speaker 1: team in the AL Central, I got a hard time
Speaker 1: thinking anybody's gonna beat them. But some of those head
Speaker 1: to heads are interesting. Given twelve and a half games
Speaker 1: to a Cubs team, it's fascinating. If they trade Bryant
Speaker 1: at the break, then maybe the numbers should be more
Speaker 1: like fifteen. We'll see what happens there. Yeah, there's draft Kis.
Speaker 1: There's a few of these that are are nutty to me. Again,
Speaker 1: we're gonna get to the AL West here next. But
Speaker 1: Astro's straight up against the Athletics. Astros only minus and nothing.
Speaker 1: The nothing is the end all be all Pakoda, which
Speaker 1: of course everybody knows player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm.
Speaker 1: Who doesn't know that, uh named after journeyman Bill Pacoda,
Speaker 1: dates Silver's old thing. Now that it's the end all
Speaker 1: be all. But if you look at the projected Pakoda
Speaker 1: standings Twins ninety point six wins White Sox eighty two
Speaker 1: point eight. I mean again, read into that what you will.
Speaker 1: But in the A L West and we'll get to
Speaker 1: this momentarily, Houston nine one point eight, Oakland eighty two
Speaker 1: point one with the Angels wedged in between them. So
Speaker 1: it's a pretty interesting where these markets come. They seem
Speaker 1: very bettable. Matt. Last thing, you said something in there
Speaker 1: that I'm curious how you feel last week last year's
Speaker 1: sixty game schedule. You know, how how much do you
Speaker 1: buy into sixty game stats or does it depend on
Speaker 1: what exactly we are talking about? Stat wise? Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think it's b if you're talking about home runs per
Speaker 1: plate appearance, Okay, I like that as a as a
Speaker 1: kind of me type stat. If you're gonna judge player
Speaker 1: like Alex Bregman or Francisco Lindor on a sixty game
Speaker 1: shortened two thousand twenty, you're kind of missing the point.
Speaker 1: So I think it's case by case. It's a stat
Speaker 1: by stat. Could Luke Void end up winning a home
Speaker 1: run title in a one D sixty two games season, Yes,
Speaker 1: I think he could. Um, But man, sixty games, you
Speaker 1: just have to get in there and weed out a
Speaker 1: lot of individual things, and that's where it gets subjective,
Speaker 1: and that's where I think the analytics community has a
Speaker 1: problem with the subjectivity of doing that. An excellent point
Speaker 1: Luke void. By the way, think a hundred to one
Speaker 1: or to one before the one hundred sixty two games
Speaker 1: schedule last year and then uh not at all that
Speaker 1: number before a sixty game schedule. Anything to add a
Speaker 1: le central Paul Um No, I kind of come out
Speaker 1: some you know, I like this White Sox crew, but
Speaker 1: I also agree that they're not kind of the lockdown
Speaker 1: because it's not just Pacona. That's a little bit tepi in.
Speaker 1: You look at what we've out over at fan graphs,
Speaker 1: and it's eighty seven wins projected for both them and
Speaker 1: the Twins and um and even Cleveland. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's terribly far behind that we have them at eighty wins.
Speaker 1: If you're projected for eighty, you're just a couple of
Speaker 1: breakouts from really getting there too. So I just think
Speaker 1: the division is gonna be a little bit more difficult
Speaker 1: than than is expected. I don't expect the Tigers to
Speaker 1: be great or the Royals, but both are projected to
Speaker 1: win seventies something games, and those are just a few
Speaker 1: extra wins peeled away from those top teams because both
Speaker 1: those teams are starting to turn the corner on their
Speaker 1: rebuilt like to where they're They're not completely inapt. I
Speaker 1: don't think either the Tigers or Royals will lose a
Speaker 1: hundred games this year or be particularly close to it,
Speaker 1: to be honest. So that starts to undercut some of
Speaker 1: what the White Sox, Twins and Cleveland can do. And
Speaker 1: so I am interested, particularly in the Twins over the
Speaker 1: White Sox as much as I like them. And then,
Speaker 1: like we said that Cubs, even though I don't even
Speaker 1: like the Cubs that much, I still think they have
Speaker 1: pitching issues. Over and a half is just such a
Speaker 1: big number. That's still a high quality offense. They do
Speaker 1: still have a you know, a legit frontliner in Hendrix.
Speaker 1: He can he can lead the rotation for two d things.
Speaker 1: I do worry about the rest of the pitching from
Speaker 1: that point forward, but they don't need to be that
Speaker 1: good to be to cash that bet there. As far
Speaker 1: as the White Sox go, I think the real question
Speaker 1: is is that rotation behind Giulio and Lynn gonna do anything?
Speaker 1: Because Kaiko he'll be who he is. I think he'll
Speaker 1: be solid, if unspectacular. But then you've got Dylan Cez,
Speaker 1: Carl's Rodan, Michael Kopeck I'm kind of I'm over there
Speaker 1: and all the Lopez experience and I've I've been a fan,
Speaker 1: I've I've tried to I've tried to be the champion
Speaker 1: for that and I'm just no, it's done. So you
Speaker 1: know that's too open spots there that are really unsettled.
Speaker 1: I I have little love for Cease uh Copec has
Speaker 1: the raw stuff, but but kind of where's he yet?
Speaker 1: Mentally with everything coming into the year, Rodan is dealt
Speaker 1: with so many injuries. They are right for an in
Speaker 1: season train as well to get a starter similar to
Speaker 1: what I said or Toronto. I just don't think they're
Speaker 1: the walk away winner. So even though there's questions for
Speaker 1: Minnesota and Cleveland, UM, I think both of them will
Speaker 1: be in contention, with Minnesota being more firmly in contention
Speaker 1: than UH than Cleveland. There to challenge the White Sox.
Speaker 1: So I would take some of those bets, namely the
Speaker 1: one with the twins at plus one thirty on DraftKings
Speaker 1: versus the White Sox straight up yeah, I'm I'm with
Speaker 1: you on that, by the way, And Alberto Mondesy is
Speaker 1: is your stolen base leader this year? Do you think?
Speaker 1: And stolen base markets. Yes, Okay, short shot, but I
Speaker 1: think worth it. Jason, I'll let you do the Snakes
Speaker 1: and Ale Central and Al West your thoughts. I think
Speaker 1: I think the White Sox are the hype team. I
Speaker 1: think they got some players and you know, Louise Robert
Speaker 1: and Andrew Vaughan kind of players. I'm I'm excited to
Speaker 1: try to buy their baseball cards whenever I have the chance. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm not super excited about buying them if I was
Speaker 1: investing in them as a team right now. I see
Speaker 1: Christ has minus one thirteen for the White Sox with
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollar wins limits to win the division. So
Speaker 1: you know, Chris is basically saying lay lay minus one
Speaker 1: thirteen and take your chances. I'm not really looking to
Speaker 1: take my chances here. I'm I'm really intrigued by the
Speaker 1: Royals recently, this last week. I watched them play the
Speaker 1: Dodgers a couple of days ago, and they didn't actually
Speaker 1: look that bad, and I started thinking, you know, well,
Speaker 1: how how far away are they really? And and I
Speaker 1: really like Bobby Witch Jr. Two big fan. I don't
Speaker 1: know if he's a Rifkie of the Year candidate this year,
Speaker 1: but he should actually make it to the majors this year. Um,
Speaker 1: if I was looking for a really really long shot,
Speaker 1: maybe Kansas City one to win the division would would
Speaker 1: be would be my play there. But I'm not really
Speaker 1: excited about laying the price with with the White Socks.
Speaker 1: I'm more you know, like we we bought Andrew Vaughan's
Speaker 1: ri Rikie of the Year, so I'm more interested in playing.
Speaker 1: I'm interested in and White Sox guys individually as opposed
Speaker 1: to the team's success. And then to jump over to
Speaker 1: the A L. West. I'm down on Houston. I'm very
Speaker 1: down on Houston. I'm I think they have a lot
Speaker 1: more questions with they're starting pitching then, and a lot
Speaker 1: of people are are recognizing that they're asking for a
Speaker 1: lot of ending and a lot of untested guys and
Speaker 1: that can always backfire. I'm really down on Oakland. I'm
Speaker 1: even more down on Oakland then Houston. I just think
Speaker 1: they had a bad off season, and you know, I
Speaker 1: kind of get the feeling that they're they're best players
Speaker 1: in the clubhouse Chapman and Olds and kind of see
Speaker 1: the writing on the wall that they're not going to
Speaker 1: be resigned and that they're they're they're not going to
Speaker 1: continue to invest in the team. Didn't they just have
Speaker 1: though Jason didn't. They just have kind of the standard
Speaker 1: Oakland off season. I mean even a little bit non
Speaker 1: standard where they actually went and bought a closer. But like,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I feel like this is just kind
Speaker 1: of kind of what they do. They always kind of
Speaker 1: sit together where it doesn't look as good on paper
Speaker 1: until it starts to play. I think it's still a
Speaker 1: pretty pretty stout line up with some good pitching. I
Speaker 1: like some of their guys on the come up too,
Speaker 1: like Lazardo montaz A, j Puck to name three specifically. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm again Puck Puck the guy I'm you know, I've
Speaker 1: been waiting on him for a couple of years and
Speaker 1: every he always seems real close and then he has
Speaker 1: an armed problem. Uh, maybe this is the year he
Speaker 1: finally breaks through. It's a it's a good line of
Speaker 1: good pen It's it's uh, you know, I don't really
Speaker 1: have many many bad things to say, other than I
Speaker 1: always just get the impression there they're not going to
Speaker 1: invest in that last piece they need, like they let
Speaker 1: Marcus Semion get away when they couldn't resigned him and
Speaker 1: put that money in Rose and ball. You know, it's
Speaker 1: just I think eventually that stuff kind of backfires. But
Speaker 1: my big thing is the Angels. I bet them earlier
Speaker 1: they opened five to one to win the division. They're down.
Speaker 1: You can still get four to one or three and
Speaker 1: a half to one, etcetera. Uh. What I said earlier
Speaker 1: in the off season is the reason I'm high on
Speaker 1: the Angels is because they have the one thing everyone
Speaker 1: else and the division doesn't have that. Mike Trout. You know,
Speaker 1: with Mike Trout is always going to have a chance.
Speaker 1: But I'm I'm also interested in Show Hyotani this year
Speaker 1: if he could stay healthy. And that's one of the
Speaker 1: things we can talk about in the player futures is
Speaker 1: I'm I convinced myself to be on Show Hyotani m
Speaker 1: v P again, So I'm I'm expecting a good season
Speaker 1: out of him, and I'm I'm hoping, I'm hoping the
Speaker 1: Angels win the division. That's that's my bat right there,
Speaker 1: by the way. Just because hey, Jason, I'll go ahead,
Speaker 1: all look, sorry, go I want to jump in there
Speaker 1: too because I'm I'm high on the Angels as well.
Speaker 1: And at three and a half to one, which is
Speaker 1: kind of what I'm looking at their number being off
Speaker 1: shore to win the division. Um, I'll give you some
Speaker 1: more reasons to In addition to what Jason said, I
Speaker 1: think Griffin Canning is ready to take the next step.
Speaker 1: MLB dot Com lists him as their number four starter.
Speaker 1: He's not going to pitch to the number four. He's
Speaker 1: not gonna his end results are gonna be higher in
Speaker 1: the rotation than that. Uh. They went out and got
Speaker 1: Risela ace Is pretty early in the off season, and
Speaker 1: it was a move that we all forgot about because
Speaker 1: of all the sexy stuff that happened with with Lindor
Speaker 1: and Arronado, et cetera. And I get it, he's not
Speaker 1: those guys, but he's an impact guy at the end
Speaker 1: of a bullpen. And I think that there there's finally
Speaker 1: some clarity there with with what Albert is and is not.
Speaker 1: And he's not a guy that's gonna play much anymore.
Speaker 1: And to take nothing away from his story at Hall
Speaker 1: of Fame career, but Jared Walsh is um a real
Speaker 1: plus defender at that position, and I think for that
Speaker 1: reason alone, he's going to get the kind of plate
Speaker 1: appearances that maybe a left handed hitter that profiles like
Speaker 1: he does may not. Yet his defense is going to
Speaker 1: keep him in there a little bit more. And and
Speaker 1: he had a really great finish to the season last year.
Speaker 1: He made real legitimate change. I'm a big Jared Walsh guy,
Speaker 1: and it is a small sample, but he made legitimate
Speaker 1: Swain changes to tighten things up, get quicker to the ball,
Speaker 1: and it showed in the strikeout gains that were substantial.
Speaker 1: He doesn't have to hold all those games to be
Speaker 1: and you know, you take the two small samples, and
Speaker 1: he's had in the Major's eight seven plate appearances with
Speaker 1: a forty strikeout rate and then a hundred eight with
Speaker 1: a four percent strikeout rate, And honestly, you can just
Speaker 1: take the two put him together, and I would take
Speaker 1: the pent strikeout rate that it that it totals up
Speaker 1: to with that kind of power, Guys with that kind
Speaker 1: of power can live in that realm. Frankly, he may
Speaker 1: be better than that. He may be low twenties Jared
Speaker 1: Walsh might be. And if he is, that's a potentially
Speaker 1: high impact player. I'm with you, and I'm also and
Speaker 1: this is bothering me for fantasy because he's already got
Speaker 1: three homers in spring. But I've been a long time
Speaker 1: justin Upton guy, and the only thing I think he
Speaker 1: needs is health, right. Most of us do right, and
Speaker 1: most ball players that's all they really need is to
Speaker 1: be healthy. I think if healthy, he's back to being
Speaker 1: an easy thirty homer guy. It's early, it's spring or
Speaker 1: a weekend, but he already looks healthy with three homers,
Speaker 1: and I think he's going to be an impact bad
Speaker 1: that people are kind of sleeping on. I think he's seen.
Speaker 1: It's like, oh ho home justin Upton. No, if you're
Speaker 1: putting thirty there with a with a three thirty o
Speaker 1: b p um in your five spot or six spot,
Speaker 1: that's really good. Their lineup runs deep. They replace Dangelton
Speaker 1: Simmons perfectly with Jose Glaciers. That's the same player. In fact,
Speaker 1: the Glaciers has been hitting better of recent The one
Speaker 1: thing I wish they would have done is what their
Speaker 1: division maates did Houston. I wish they would assigned Jake
Speaker 1: GODERIZI and I know they've been attacking their pitching via
Speaker 1: volume with the cantanas and the cobs, which I like
Speaker 1: those moves. I think one of those guys will will
Speaker 1: pop for them in a positive way. Um And and
Speaker 1: if both of them do, then all of a sudden
Speaker 1: they don't need to rely on Heaney because of his
Speaker 1: health issues. Um you know Canning. Oh, I do like
Speaker 1: a great call out by Matt His health issues is
Speaker 1: the only thing stopping him. And of course Otani has
Speaker 1: health issues. But they finally have depth this year that
Speaker 1: if things don't quite work out with some of the
Speaker 1: top tier guys, they have guys that can turn to
Speaker 1: instead of dipping into the miners for just randos from
Speaker 1: Triple A. So I like a lot of what the
Speaker 1: Angels have done, and that does speak to the difficulty
Speaker 1: that is gonna be put on the Astros or A's
Speaker 1: to win the division because of the Angels. I will
Speaker 1: let everyone finish up. But if when you come to me,
Speaker 1: I do want to say something about the Astros, and
Speaker 1: I think they're a little bit better than maybe Jason's
Speaker 1: given him quite go ahead. So he mentioned the starting pitching.
Speaker 1: I think it's in a better state than than a
Speaker 1: lot believe, because I don't think Jason's on his own
Speaker 1: there and being concerned about it. The one thing you
Speaker 1: did talk about was innings. I can't really deny that
Speaker 1: because Lance mc colors he's never pitched more than a
Speaker 1: buck thirty. Jose Kitty, Christian Javier a young guys really
Speaker 1: just kind of stepping in Um from Ravelda is being hurt.
Speaker 1: That stinks, but he is very adequately replaced by Jake Goderisi,
Speaker 1: who I really like Greg He's a stud and they
Speaker 1: go to z is really strong. They do need to
Speaker 1: figure out, you know, mc colors or Kivy or Javier,
Speaker 1: one of them needs to go a buck sixty. If
Speaker 1: they're all going like a buck twenty, that is going
Speaker 1: to put too much stress on it. But I believe
Speaker 1: that one of them can. And the guy that I
Speaker 1: think is gonna do it is jose Er Katy. I
Speaker 1: think he is a monster ready to break out and
Speaker 1: be kind of the next big thing for Houston. You
Speaker 1: look at his arsenal. It is a complete and really
Speaker 1: really strong, deep arsenal that he has. He has great
Speaker 1: command and control. I think he would have been poised
Speaker 1: for a little bit of a two month breakout last year,
Speaker 1: but he got hit by COVID. It really lingered with him.
Speaker 1: When he came back, he was a little wonky as
Speaker 1: strikeouts weren't there, etcetera. I think he's the key piece there,
Speaker 1: so Grinky odories at the one too or Keat He's
Speaker 1: gonna pitch like a two and give them some depth
Speaker 1: that they need. I'm more worried about their bullpen than
Speaker 1: I am. They're starting pitching and Forest Whitley and Josh
Speaker 1: James are both hurt. If both of them were healthy,
Speaker 1: I feel really good about them, but I also think
Speaker 1: the offense is gonna bounce back in a big way.
Speaker 1: I think Houston should be the favorite. They are, um,
Speaker 1: I still really like them to win the division. I
Speaker 1: do like the Angels. I think they're a worthy bet
Speaker 1: plus three seventy five at DraftKings. But I think the
Speaker 1: Ashows are going to be very difficult to thwart this year.
Speaker 1: And I think a lot of people are sleeping on
Speaker 1: them a bit because we've kind of tired out on
Speaker 1: them and they've had some some key injuries that make
Speaker 1: it look like they're worse than they are. Well, we forgot.
Speaker 1: We forgot about Jorda on Albarez last year, and some
Speaker 1: of that productivity gone with Springer going to Toronto was
Speaker 1: right back there in house with Albarez, who a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago between the Big leagues and triple A
Speaker 1: hit fifty Homer's. I mean, if the knees hold up,
Speaker 1: they're not going to be missing the presence of Springer
Speaker 1: as much. Granted, Albarez isn't gonna lead off and he's
Speaker 1: not gonna play defensively, but I would agree with everything
Speaker 1: that's been said about the Astros here recently that they're
Speaker 1: they're probably gonna be a little better than people think.
Speaker 1: Let's get through the I never I never forgot about
Speaker 1: Jordan on Albarez to point that out. Also, I also
Speaker 1: liked a lot. Uh he's the dude I I doubted
Speaker 1: when he was pitching for mos lawn in uh in
Speaker 1: the Mexican Winter League. Actually a year later he was
Speaker 1: starting in the World Series. That doesn't happen very often. Uh.
Speaker 1: Bramber's a Winter League too. I shouted him and in
Speaker 1: the Dominican So I like both of them. I big fan.
Speaker 1: I'm just just worried. Uh Bramber is not gonna Getember's
Speaker 1: gonna try to make it, and yeah, I don't think
Speaker 1: it's gonna work. I'm actually kind of putting him on
Speaker 1: the shelf. I'd say like maybe twenty five innings and
Speaker 1: then he has to he has to get that surgery
Speaker 1: or whatever. So I'm not worried. I'm not counting him
Speaker 1: amongst this. I just think that they've they've got enough.
Speaker 1: The interesting part is some of these no name relievers
Speaker 1: that they have that could break out like an an
Speaker 1: only partis is somebody who has some really good raw stuff,
Speaker 1: because right now it's Pressley, and you know, I could
Speaker 1: say a bunch of scrubs for the pun because they
Speaker 1: have Andre Scrub. But they need to figure out a
Speaker 1: little something in the bullpen beyond Pressley. I I do
Speaker 1: grant that, but I think that they will and that's
Speaker 1: something that you can kind of build on the fly.
Speaker 1: And they still have depth in their system. It's not
Speaker 1: high name prospect uh prospect players right now that that
Speaker 1: everyone knows, but they are. They have such a deep
Speaker 1: system that they're always churning out talent. So I'm just
Speaker 1: reluctant to completely give up on them. I don't think
Speaker 1: they would have been a sub five team if the
Speaker 1: whole six month season and played out last year, And
Speaker 1: so that's why I just say, just just keep it,
Speaker 1: just keep an eye on Louis Garcia could be a
Speaker 1: lynchpin to their bullpen. Uh dude, dude throws flames. He's
Speaker 1: not ready to start yet or be like an instrumental
Speaker 1: part of the rotation, but I think it could be
Speaker 1: a big part of their their bullpen. There. Let's let's
Speaker 1: go to the NL guys, because otherwise this will be
Speaker 1: an old school sleeper in the bust for our podcast here,
Speaker 1: so we don't want to do that. I want to
Speaker 1: get to the individual awards all right in at least um.
Speaker 1: It's a scrum for sure in the NL East, and
Speaker 1: it's reflected in the odds mets even without Trevor Bauer
Speaker 1: here at circuit anywhere, your short shot at plus one
Speaker 1: thirty five. The braves are plus one forty. That will
Speaker 1: vary based on the book. Braves I think are typically
Speaker 1: the short shot. UH gnats are plus six eighty five,
Speaker 1: Phillies plus five, and then the Marlins. One of these
Speaker 1: things is not like the other. They're fifty two one.
Speaker 1: Matt Eleen either direction here or any of the directions.
Speaker 1: I've said all off season long that the Lindor notwithstanding
Speaker 1: and with all the other moves made within the division,
Speaker 1: I consider the Braves the class the division like the incumbents.
Speaker 1: But if you're gonna push me into a sleepy second
Speaker 1: pick um, if if you think that Josh Bell and
Speaker 1: Kyle Schwarber can sip off their two thousand eighteen fountain
Speaker 1: of youth, and why not? And if you think that
Speaker 1: Brad Hand is going to be the big impact guy
Speaker 1: that I do and eventually take over as the full
Speaker 1: time closer for Daniel Hudson despite matchup problems, um, then
Speaker 1: and and if you think that Strasburg comes back completely
Speaker 1: from injury, and if you think that Max Erzer is
Speaker 1: going to be super motivated in a contract year, Uh,
Speaker 1: it really doesn't matter contract you're or not with that
Speaker 1: guy's motor. By the way, but I kind of I'm
Speaker 1: being talked into the Nationals by some of the d
Speaker 1: c apologists, not unlike yourself, Guilt, who I worked down here.
Speaker 1: So I'll play right into the narrative on the belt
Speaker 1: Way for you and say, um, Nationals are going to
Speaker 1: be sneaky good. You're on to me, man. Uh you
Speaker 1: like that. You like the Natinals too, don't you, Paul?
Speaker 1: You're wearing a national with with purpose here? This was
Speaker 1: this was intentional. I definitely like them, especially at their
Speaker 1: odds here. If they were the favorite, maybe not, but
Speaker 1: the fact that you get them, uh you said plus
Speaker 1: six eight five plus six hundred on draft kings. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're they're They're always listed at least third in the division.
Speaker 1: So you're getting some good odds there that I think
Speaker 1: are worth taking. I do believe that Bell and Schwarber
Speaker 1: are really going to add to that offense. Uh, folks
Speaker 1: that believe in the Carter Key Boom breakout. It's not
Speaker 1: required for them to do well, but it's certainly something
Speaker 1: that could happen and really add to their to the
Speaker 1: bottom line of their offense there, and all of a
Speaker 1: sudden that offense would run you know, seven eight deep um.
Speaker 1: You know, with with high quality talent there, Soto, Turner, Bell,
Speaker 1: Schwarber is going to be the core and then Robeless
Speaker 1: Key Boom if they can break out and then cash
Speaker 1: on young gums just kind of check punch the clock
Speaker 1: every day and do their thing. They're not special, but
Speaker 1: they're not they're not poor either. What it really comes
Speaker 1: down to is that rotation. Though it's Corby gonna bounce back,
Speaker 1: he seemed to have a little bit of issue with
Speaker 1: the ramp up last year and never really got going.
Speaker 1: I believe in him, though I'm not. I'm not discarding
Speaker 1: him after the two months season and then it comes
Speaker 1: down to Strasbourg, as Matt said, so I don't I
Speaker 1: won't believe at that point because he's dead on with that.
Speaker 1: That's really that's their lynchpin for sure. Um, if he
Speaker 1: can give them at least a buck forty. I know
Speaker 1: that's not a huge innings count, but I think most
Speaker 1: guys at the high end are gonna be around one eighty,
Speaker 1: so he wouldn't be too far. You know, it wouldn't
Speaker 1: be that bad if he quote unquote only gave one forty.
Speaker 1: Because he's he's due for an eye. I'll stand every
Speaker 1: year for something a little, a little nagging back whatever. Um.
Speaker 1: And so we'll see how the Carpal Tunnel turns out.
Speaker 1: For Strasbourg. My question would be the last two spots
Speaker 1: that lester ross there. But if your four or five
Speaker 1: is really your big question, like, that's not that's not
Speaker 1: the end of the world. That is something that you
Speaker 1: can kind of play with on the fly. I think
Speaker 1: they have one of the best bullpens they've had in
Speaker 1: a long time. I thought they did last year to
Speaker 1: coming in and you know, remember they were kind of
Speaker 1: like the Tigers of the n L for a while there,
Speaker 1: where they had all this great hitting and starting pitching
Speaker 1: and every time October came, the bullpen failed them. Well,
Speaker 1: I think their bullpen is strong now. They have hand Rainy, Hudson, Wilson,
Speaker 1: Will Harris, excuse me as four guys that they can
Speaker 1: reasonly rely on. Austin both is somebody that I think
Speaker 1: can jump into the rotation too. If for some reason
Speaker 1: Ross and Lester keep him out by performing well, then
Speaker 1: Both becomes a really nice bullpen piece for them. And
Speaker 1: I mentioned Louise Garcia with with Houston, they the Nats
Speaker 1: have Louis Garcia as well. Now he's an offensive guy,
Speaker 1: he's very young, but he did debut last year and
Speaker 1: I think he could end up being a midseason supplement
Speaker 1: if something goes awry with the aforementioned key boom, or
Speaker 1: if maybe Starling Cash was a little bit below average,
Speaker 1: they could get a youth infusion there with Louis Garcia.
Speaker 1: So I love this Nats team and I think they're
Speaker 1: a great bet at their odds. Jason uh if you
Speaker 1: like Billies or than that, I would be more inclined
Speaker 1: to bet them to make the playoffs. You can get
Speaker 1: plus to eighty five on the Phillies, and I think
Speaker 1: plus one thirty on the nap As opposed to betting
Speaker 1: them to win the division. I think it's a really
Speaker 1: competitive division. I haven't haven't bet any division futures here
Speaker 1: mainly because when I look at the teams, and I
Speaker 1: look at the lineups and and the rotations, and I
Speaker 1: think about the uh, you know, how many games are
Speaker 1: gonna play against each other? I feel the value. You
Speaker 1: can get a lot of value in these head to
Speaker 1: head matchups all season, you know, to grom Birth, mac
Speaker 1: Freed or Drombert, any of the Marlins pitchers is their
Speaker 1: top pitchers all compare Lopez, Um, you can get a
Speaker 1: lot of good prices, I think all season on Phillies pitchers,
Speaker 1: Verse Braves pitchers, et cetera. Uh. And I don't think
Speaker 1: the middle of this division, the Phillies and Nats are
Speaker 1: are that much behind the Mets or Braves. I mean,
Speaker 1: like the middle of the Phillies rotation Bomb Harper Real
Speaker 1: Mudo is as good as anybody's middle three UM I
Speaker 1: love all three of those guys. Toto's the best player
Speaker 1: in in baseball not named Mike Trout, and he's on
Speaker 1: what's the third fourth best team in the division. I love,
Speaker 1: so I would like to bet him to win the
Speaker 1: Triple ground UH this year or any year. But I
Speaker 1: think that that the value in this division is going
Speaker 1: to be on a game by game basis against each other. Um,
Speaker 1: that's that's what I'm kind of looking at here. Yes, No,
Speaker 1: it's better than Division. I like it similar to the
Speaker 1: Central UH where the bottom bottom team in this division,
Speaker 1: the Marlins. They're not going to be a hundred lost team.
Speaker 1: I think they're They're They're not great. I don't think
Speaker 1: they're gonna make the playoffs again, but I think they're
Speaker 1: a solid team. It's gonna be tough to go into
Speaker 1: Miami and just sweep three or even get the two
Speaker 1: out of the three, two out of three every time
Speaker 1: you go in there, because they just have, you know,
Speaker 1: solid average everywhere and a really burgeoning rotation that that
Speaker 1: I think could could turn the corner. They could maybe
Speaker 1: do it this year and really surprised, but I think
Speaker 1: next year is when things really start to pop off
Speaker 1: for them. Without Kantara, Pablo a little Pez six dough Sanchez.
Speaker 1: Don't sleep on Trevor Rodgers either. He's a nice left
Speaker 1: twenty three year old who's on the come up. They
Speaker 1: think their bullpens a little short and their offense is
Speaker 1: a little short of impact players, but like I said,
Speaker 1: they're kind of solid average everywhere. So they get seventy
Speaker 1: five wins that again is going to take away some
Speaker 1: of those supplemental wins from the other four clubs and
Speaker 1: just making an even bigger cluster. They could play spoiler
Speaker 1: in September there by taking a few key series against
Speaker 1: whomever is at the top there and allowing another team
Speaker 1: to jump up there, which sort of triggers the question
Speaker 1: and this sort of random in the middle, but what
Speaker 1: is the team either a L or n L that nobody,
Speaker 1: not no, no one with conventional wisdom is talking about
Speaker 1: right now to make a I'm not even say a
Speaker 1: deep playoff run too, but but to be in a
Speaker 1: wild card race into the last weeks of the season
Speaker 1: that no one's thinking about. Jason already hit on it.
Speaker 1: I was because I was gonna expound on the Royals
Speaker 1: as well. I I totally agree that that's a that's
Speaker 1: a team to keep a close eye on. Uh. They've
Speaker 1: got some really high impact bats with Merrifield, Perez Soler, Mandacy,
Speaker 1: you know, he can be very volatile, and even Carlos Santana,
Speaker 1: you know, gets on base like like crazy and has
Speaker 1: good power. So their line up runs pretty deep, especially
Speaker 1: if Andrew Benintendian Hunter does or do anything. But I
Speaker 1: think where they really stand out as they're pitching, their
Speaker 1: rotation is just solid. They have a guy every day
Speaker 1: that goes out there and can give you five six
Speaker 1: quality innings, and then a bullpen that runs pretty deep.
Speaker 1: If Greg Holland is indeed back the way he was
Speaker 1: last year, he can be the nice closer there with
Speaker 1: Josh Stoumont, Scott Barlow, Jesse Hahn. They brought back Wayne Davis.
Speaker 1: They're getting the band back together. Unfortunately, Calvin Herrera retires,
Speaker 1: so they can't get the whole H d H crew back.
Speaker 1: But don't sleep on Kyle Zimmer too. He's a long
Speaker 1: time you know, he's thirty now, but he's a big
Speaker 1: time prospect whose injuries just ravaged his entire career. But
Speaker 1: he stayed healthy last year and looked great out of
Speaker 1: the bullpen. If he can find that health for a
Speaker 1: full season, I could see eight E quality innings out
Speaker 1: of him out of the bullpen too. So I think
Speaker 1: it's casey as that as that team that's way off
Speaker 1: the map that no one's talking about that could do
Speaker 1: some that could do some damage this year, and if
Speaker 1: everything broke right, then all of a sudden, whoa are
Speaker 1: they in playoff contention? On on August first? Mad, is
Speaker 1: there one for you? Well, I mean, boy, Paul's going
Speaker 1: for a team way off the map because yes, you're right.
Speaker 1: I mean, people aren't giving the Royals much of a
Speaker 1: puncher's chance to plan the postseason. I'll take a team
Speaker 1: that's slightly off the map. And because the NL East
Speaker 1: is so crowded for reasons we just documented, Um, nobody's
Speaker 1: really considering the Phillies that team to to kind of
Speaker 1: uh move themselves past the rest of that pack. And
Speaker 1: it's for good reason, right, I get it that that
Speaker 1: was a historically bad bullpen, not just last year, but
Speaker 1: for the full season in two thousand nine too. We're
Speaker 1: talking about a really a really alarming set of numbers
Speaker 1: that came from that group. The reasons for optimism aren't
Speaker 1: based on pitching. For me, I think they're gonna win
Speaker 1: a lot of slug fests, and I think they could
Speaker 1: be dangerous getting into postseason contention. I love Alec Bom.
Speaker 1: I get it. He's unrefined defensively, not sure what his
Speaker 1: long term future is at which corner, but he can
Speaker 1: hit and and they're gonna they're gonna endure some wonky
Speaker 1: defensive nights because he can really hit. Um. I guess
Speaker 1: the Phillies would be my identifier for that one. I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna go as far as to say the Orioles
Speaker 1: or Pirates are going to shock the world this year,
Speaker 1: but once again, all of you have forgotten to include
Speaker 1: giants magic in your models. I just want to that's true,
Speaker 1: and I'll just give a quick I won't do a
Speaker 1: whole rundown, but the Mariners could arrive ahead of schedule too.
Speaker 1: They have a they have a gob gobs of talent
Speaker 1: that's already in the majors. And then, of course Jared
Speaker 1: Keelni's on the cusp. I know he got hurt in spring,
Speaker 1: but I think that I think they're kind of interesting too.
Speaker 1: They have a burgeoning rotation themselves. I think Marco Gonzalez
Speaker 1: is who he is. He's kind of the lefty Kyle
Speaker 1: Hendricks if packs and bounces back. Don't sleep on Kakuchi.
Speaker 1: I think, I think. I think the Mariners could also
Speaker 1: be that off the radar team that nobody's talking about.
Speaker 1: They need a lot to break, right. But that's what
Speaker 1: we're talking about here with these ball clubs. They just
Speaker 1: need one or two more trades with the Mets where
Speaker 1: they flog them and make them look terrible to win
Speaker 1: a World Series. And that's the crazy thing is and
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, the Mets turned around, and
Speaker 1: then and you know they're in the mix for the
Speaker 1: favorites for the World Series. Despite that, imagine they also
Speaker 1: had Kelly coming up this year, Like how disgusting would
Speaker 1: that be for that ball club? With everything else that
Speaker 1: they did, Just sprinkle a little Jared kelln Nick on top,
Speaker 1: and wow, that'd be nuts. You can't wait to get
Speaker 1: to these individual categories. Let's wrap up of the divisions
Speaker 1: here n L Central because there's not much to talk
Speaker 1: about in the NL West other than do you believe
Speaker 1: in the Padres or not? But n L Central, with
Speaker 1: apologies to the NL least, this is the most competitive
Speaker 1: for the betting markets, and I think it's accurate. Brewers.
Speaker 1: I'll give you the circuit numbers anywhere because I'm here
Speaker 1: at the day. Brewers plus one thirty to win the division.
Speaker 1: Brew Um pardon me? Cardinals plus one thirty, Brewers plus
Speaker 1: two seventy five. Red's your reds POLLI plus two nine,
Speaker 1: and then the Cuppies at plus six nine, just for giggles,
Speaker 1: the Pirates one fifty five to one. I did this
Speaker 1: to Paul earlier, like a three Pirates. I was like,
Speaker 1: I asked the wrong guy. But I think if you ask, yeah,
Speaker 1: I can do a lot of people. I ask more
Speaker 1: most people, most casual fans, they wouldn't be able to do. So.
Speaker 1: Um Man will start with you, who do you believe?
Speaker 1: Who do you not? Who do you believe in? Who
Speaker 1: do you not believe in? In this division? Well, for me,
Speaker 1: this is the most fascinating division in baseball. Not the best,
Speaker 1: but the most fascinating because the log jam and the
Speaker 1: discussion you can have between the Cardinals, Cubs and Brewers
Speaker 1: is is one that I changed my stripes on daily.
Speaker 1: Even before the Ronado trade, I felt like the Cardinals
Speaker 1: were the team to eat in the division despite not
Speaker 1: having Dacoda Hudson available this year. I'm kind of banking
Speaker 1: on a return to form for Miles Michaelis. I'm kind
Speaker 1: of banking on Adam Wayne right being Adam Wainwright, even
Speaker 1: though there are those that say at his advanced career
Speaker 1: age and after the workload that he had last year,
Speaker 1: and it wasn't much of a workload in the sixty
Speaker 1: game season, but the point was he posted up and
Speaker 1: was great without the cavern that would be entailed in
Speaker 1: a in a longer stretch. I liked them enough to
Speaker 1: feel like they were the favorite. I couldn't understand then,
Speaker 1: for the life of me, how the Pacoda projections had
Speaker 1: them finishing third behind the Brewer and Cubs, And I'm
Speaker 1: I'm not a great believer in what the Cubs have
Speaker 1: on paper right now. The Brewers of the team that
Speaker 1: that are really interesting, and I think part of those
Speaker 1: projections for them favorably come from the fact that when
Speaker 1: they have a lead, they're not going to lose. Between
Speaker 1: Hayter and Williams, and having to deploy those guys on
Speaker 1: different nights isn't a problem because we know about how
Speaker 1: they handle Hayter's workload and they don't back to back him. Um.
Speaker 1: They rarely try to avoid him more than three or
Speaker 1: four hitters in a game. That's okay because they have
Speaker 1: Williams as a as an A or a one a UM.
Speaker 1: I also like what they did in the offseason waiting
Speaker 1: for the whole market to come to them late. That
Speaker 1: Jackie Bradley Jr. Signing was great, even though we're all
Speaker 1: unclear as to how Ian Lorenzo Kaine are going to
Speaker 1: code share center field. I really like what they did
Speaker 1: with Colton Wong Kestan Hera as a full time first baseman. Fine.
Speaker 1: I think he's a better hitter than people know, and
Speaker 1: I think he's perhaps a guy that could be a
Speaker 1: sneaky contender for a batting championship someday, especially if one
Speaker 1: Soda gets traded to the American League. Maybe that's what
Speaker 1: it would take. But I kind of like the Brewers now,
Speaker 1: and I'm I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth,
Speaker 1: thinking no way the Brewers finish above the Cardinals, But
Speaker 1: now I can kind of see a pathway to that. Uh. Still,
Speaker 1: having said that, I've encouraged people to do those tickets
Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. Um that corner infield that they've put
Speaker 1: together is unbelievable. They cleared the deck in the outfield
Speaker 1: by moving Dexter Fowler out of there. Dylan Carlson is
Speaker 1: going to get a full season's worth of that bats.
Speaker 1: It's time for Tyler O'Neil to take the next step
Speaker 1: in his career. Same with Harrison Bader, who's got a
Speaker 1: great skill set. He just has to figure out a
Speaker 1: where to get on base more often. If you if
Speaker 1: you ask me for one team, I'll say St. Louis.
Speaker 1: And what's interesting, Dakoda you referred to that Matt Pakoda
Speaker 1: has Brewers at eight eight point six, Cubbies at eighty
Speaker 1: five point seven, Cardinals at eighty point one, and much
Speaker 1: of that is because they only project the Cardinals on offense.
Speaker 1: The run production is what lacks in terms of the
Speaker 1: Dakoda projections only seven fifty four runs, which if you
Speaker 1: just base it compared to other n L teams. The
Speaker 1: only teams that they project to score fewer runs in
Speaker 1: the NL the Marlins, the Pirates, the Giants, and the Rockies.
Speaker 1: That's the list. I just don't see that. Yeah, really,
Speaker 1: that doesn't that doesn't check and that doesn't check out
Speaker 1: for me. Like, I don't know, I think they're line
Speaker 1: up runs pretty deep. I do think Tylan O'Neill, you know,
Speaker 1: needs to kind of take that step forward, but he's not.
Speaker 1: He's not necessary for them to have success. That would
Speaker 1: kind of be supplemental. I think Edmund Goldschmidt, Ernado de Young, Carlson,
Speaker 1: Yadi as their top six is really solid. I love
Speaker 1: Dylan Carlson, by the way. I think he's going to
Speaker 1: have a really nice breakout here. You know, it's wilds
Speaker 1: on our projected standings at Fangraphs, we don't have a
Speaker 1: single team in that division with over five hundred. The
Speaker 1: Cardinals are tops at eighty and then the Brewers at
Speaker 1: seventy nine, comes the Reds at seventy seven, and then
Speaker 1: the Pirates at sixty five. That's wild to me. I
Speaker 1: don't agree with that, by the way. I think obviously
Speaker 1: there's a couple of those teams will be above five.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be competitive, there's gonna be a lot of
Speaker 1: in fighting, and you mentioned, you know, I'm a Red
Speaker 1: skuy I'm still sticking with them, but I do have
Speaker 1: a really hard time splitting those top three teams. I'm
Speaker 1: really just not in on the Cubs, but I look
Speaker 1: at Reds, Brewers, Cards, and it's hard for me to
Speaker 1: really split them apart too much there. So it's gonna
Speaker 1: come down to kind of those those unforeseen breakouts and
Speaker 1: kind of those those edges there that that we can't
Speaker 1: really see. That's gonna decide the division. I think I
Speaker 1: will talk about the Reds since I think Matt did
Speaker 1: adequately adequately discussed the Cards and Brewers, and I don't
Speaker 1: want to just rehash that. So with the Reds for me, obviously,
Speaker 1: the offense flopped last year, and that was supposed to
Speaker 1: be a big part of what they were able to do.
Speaker 1: It's why they lost in the playoffs. They couldn't score
Speaker 1: to save their lives. I still think that's a high
Speaker 1: quality offense, though I know it underperformed. I would love
Speaker 1: to see what they could have done in six months. Winker, Castiano, Suarez, Moose.
Speaker 1: I like Nick Senzel. He needs to stay healthy, of course,
Speaker 1: but if he stays healthy, there's a big breakout year.
Speaker 1: Votto just keep getting on base. I know that he
Speaker 1: just you know, he's not Votto at all anymore. But
Speaker 1: he still gets on base very well. Frankly, I think
Speaker 1: they should consider leading him off. I know he's slow,
Speaker 1: but with how well he gets on base and it's
Speaker 1: like a guaranteed three fifty ov P, just let him
Speaker 1: lead off. I mean, they have Jesse Winker leading off
Speaker 1: right now. He's not very fast either, so I don't
Speaker 1: worry about the like old school lineup of having to
Speaker 1: have some speed at the top. And then I really
Speaker 1: like their pitching. Remember there were rumors that they were
Speaker 1: gonna trade Sonny Gray or Luis Castillo, which angered me,
Speaker 1: and I'm not even a Reds fan, but I was like,
Speaker 1: are you kidding me? You're giving it a two month
Speaker 1: season and now you're gonna break it down. Thankfully, that
Speaker 1: just was just rumors. They didn't do that. They moved
Speaker 1: right cell Iglesias, that's fine, though they have a lot
Speaker 1: of depth. They replaced him with Sean Doolittle, and Agasias
Speaker 1: is better because he's been more healthy. But if Doolittle
Speaker 1: finds a bit of health, then he'll be fine. T
Speaker 1: j Antone is a kind of a sneak guy who
Speaker 1: could be on either side the rotation or the bullpen.
Speaker 1: He's going to be an impact picture. I really like
Speaker 1: the Michael rens in transition to the rotation. I think
Speaker 1: he's got what it takes to be a legitimate piece
Speaker 1: of that rotation. It reminds me of the c. J.
Speaker 1: Wilson transition. Remember when he moved from relief to starting
Speaker 1: kind of out of nowhere and everyone's like, what this
Speaker 1: isn't gonna work And he transitioned immediately and he was
Speaker 1: like a two inning guy off rip. Now I'm not
Speaker 1: sure it's a different game now. So Lorenzen is not
Speaker 1: going to be asked to go two in things, but
Speaker 1: I think he can go a hundred and fifty pretty comfortable.
Speaker 1: He's twenty nine years old, he's out of the injury nexus. Uh.
Speaker 1: He has a lot of swing and miss stuff. He
Speaker 1: throws hard, he's super athletic. I think that's gonna be
Speaker 1: a big key piece for the Reds and it's going
Speaker 1: to really help them, uh in their quest to win
Speaker 1: that Central. So I still really like them. It is
Speaker 1: a three team battle for me. So maybe I don't
Speaker 1: play anything on the division. I I kind of played
Speaker 1: in season the way Jason was talking about with the
Speaker 1: with the n L. Least I believe but I like
Speaker 1: that Reds team a lot. I think the Brewers are solid.
Speaker 1: Cardinals are the short favorite, though. That's why I can't
Speaker 1: really bet them, because they're too far ahead of Like
Speaker 1: their plus one oh five at DraftKings to the Brewers
Speaker 1: three hundred and the Reds three thirty. They're not that
Speaker 1: far ahead of them, So that's why I can't bet them.
Speaker 1: Even though I I don't mind that Cardinals team. I
Speaker 1: just I'm gonna take the I'm gonna take the longer
Speaker 1: shots for sure. I'm still tripping off fan graphs NFC
Speaker 1: East Wild, the NL Central. Yeah, yeah, it's crazy way
Speaker 1: by that. I hadn't seen that until we just nil.
Speaker 1: I just looked at it right now and I was like,
Speaker 1: that is that is wild? I mean, it's not gonna
Speaker 1: happen that way. I just don't see it. But that
Speaker 1: is insane that that's that's how it's projected. Jason, n
Speaker 1: L Central. I'm assuming these those four teams, everybody but
Speaker 1: the Pirates way too short to play for the season.
Speaker 1: I would imagine maybe the Cubs seven and one isn't
Speaker 1: too short, but I doubt you. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you like the Cups. And then n L West, you
Speaker 1: can snake this again. Um, how do you feel about
Speaker 1: the Padres is really the only question there, I would imagine,
Speaker 1: you know, the first time I looked at the n
Speaker 1: L Central, I was like, I'm not gonna bet anything here.
Speaker 1: It's fell drunk and I ended up with two division
Speaker 1: winner prop I bet. I bet the Cardinals. I bet
Speaker 1: them at last start two times, uh, or right after
Speaker 1: the erinnaudo news, by the way, I can get behind that.
Speaker 1: I think the value still if you can get Brewers
Speaker 1: three to one or or above three to one, that's uh,
Speaker 1: that's where the value would be right now. I think
Speaker 1: I think every team in the division other other than
Speaker 1: the Pirates has like something nice I could say about them.
Speaker 1: The Reds, their team drive lines. To me, I always
Speaker 1: think any picture they get is fascinating and it's I
Speaker 1: love them, and all of a sudden, A Cardinals are nice.
Speaker 1: I can't really say anything bad about them. Uh, Cubs,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't. I don't really attention to
Speaker 1: them as much as other teams for some reason. And
Speaker 1: the only thing I really like, I think the Pirates
Speaker 1: have some nice upcoming prospects. Brian Hayes is my review
Speaker 1: of the year favorite in the n L and everybody
Speaker 1: else's I think too. Uh, But then you jump over
Speaker 1: to the n L West. Not very exciting to me.
Speaker 1: I mean the Padres. Padres are kind of the high
Speaker 1: hype organization team right now. Dodgers are the Dodgers. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna watch them pretty much every night, but I expect
Speaker 1: them to win. I expect them to have multiple award winners.
Speaker 1: I'd be shocked if we're not talking about Dodgers in
Speaker 1: the World Series. And you know, it really to me
Speaker 1: a question of who they're gonna play. Uh. So, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't really have anything exciting to add on then LS,
Speaker 1: I think. I think it's Dodgers, Padres, and there's a
Speaker 1: couple other teams. You know, Giants are Giants are right there,
Speaker 1: but not not close unfortunately, Matt, where do you stand
Speaker 1: on the Padres? Uh? You know, it's hard not to
Speaker 1: be excited about the moves they've made. But I will
Speaker 1: quote baseball writer A. J. Cassivell who had a good
Speaker 1: line regarding their offseason spending spree. Uh. And I'm paraphrasing here,
Speaker 1: but it wants something like this. Just when the Podres
Speaker 1: started feeling good about themselves over acquisitions of Blake Snell
Speaker 1: and you darbish Rodgers rolled in ninety million boulder named
Speaker 1: Trevor Bauer in the middle of I five somewhere near
Speaker 1: can't handle them, and that kind of is it right?
Speaker 1: I mean, the Pods start to get a little froggy,
Speaker 1: and here we are that that team that's got the
Speaker 1: perennial regional chip on its shoulder for being ignored by
Speaker 1: everybody that isn't in the small envelope that San Diego
Speaker 1: and the Dodgers just reassert themselves by spending um, you know,
Speaker 1: more of that capital uh and and doing it on
Speaker 1: a guy that's fresh office, Cy young Ward and in
Speaker 1: a really good piece. The Dodgers won a World Series
Speaker 1: last year with David Price not pitching an inning, and
Speaker 1: the depth there is staggering, and I would agree with Jason,
Speaker 1: we're probably talking about a team that's gonna have multiple
Speaker 1: individual winners and get to that. And I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if the Dodgers are in the World Series again,
Speaker 1: despite San Diego being good and making for a pretty
Speaker 1: fun summer down there. As soon as Trevor Bauers sided
Speaker 1: with the Dodgers. I just bet the Dodgers at plus
Speaker 1: three forty five, right, which is like against everything you
Speaker 1: should ever do ever, but to the point of them
Speaker 1: being so stacked, just gonna put it in the account,
Speaker 1: just forget I even have it. Then come October be like,
Speaker 1: oh yeah, look at this plus three on the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: feeling very confident about that number. Um, all right, this
Speaker 1: is the fun part. By the way, before we get
Speaker 1: to the individuals season wins, Jason, let me just point
Speaker 1: this to you. Is there any season win that you
Speaker 1: would even bet right now? Or is that market pretty
Speaker 1: much calibrated to where it ought to be? Well, so,
Speaker 1: most of the places I've looked through that I have
Speaker 1: credit at right now have season win percentages as opposed
Speaker 1: to over unders. And on one hand, it's it's a
Speaker 1: lot of math. I don't want to do more math
Speaker 1: right now. And uh, the other thing is is the odds.
Speaker 1: I'm not super compelled the lock up money on a
Speaker 1: you know, over eighty two or eighty four or whatever
Speaker 1: some yo schem I like when I could just bet
Speaker 1: yesterday no to make the playoffs. So I spent the
Speaker 1: least amount of time on wind totals this year of
Speaker 1: every market, and it just happens to get the short
Speaker 1: end of the stick this year. I think there was
Speaker 1: a ton of value to lock up money. There was,
Speaker 1: like the really early numbers that came out of winning
Speaker 1: that or something, but I didn't have It's funny you
Speaker 1: and I didn't. We never talked about that, but you know,
Speaker 1: I write this MLB manifesto that I call it every
Speaker 1: year for Point Spread weekly at Visa where I give
Speaker 1: my season win totals, and they've done quite well over
Speaker 1: the years. I it's a combination. I don't have time.
Speaker 1: But also I didn't gravitate towards them this year. Same thing, Like,
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, I was like, this doesn't feel like
Speaker 1: the right market to bet. It doesn't feel nearly as
Speaker 1: as profitable as some of the others. So interesting that
Speaker 1: we came to that independently. Let's let's do this. Let's
Speaker 1: try to do this as rapid fire as possible. UM,
Speaker 1: I'll try to make the preamble. Sure, but let's start
Speaker 1: with m v P. And let's begin with the a
Speaker 1: L m v P, which is obviously extremely top heavy
Speaker 1: with Mike Trout. Uh no surprise there that he is
Speaker 1: the only person who's not in double digits. Mike Trout
Speaker 1: is roughly at plus two ten uh in the in
Speaker 1: the market here in the American League, and then everybody
Speaker 1: else is double digits plus. I'm saying plus two twenty
Speaker 1: five here at circle. So let me not uh again
Speaker 1: always shop around with these, um you brought up show
Speaker 1: Aotani earlier. Let me just start with him and I
Speaker 1: put this out some variation of this each and every year,
Speaker 1: although I don't think I did last year because of
Speaker 1: the mess of But if Showotani and by the way,
Speaker 1: five man rotations supposed to be excuse me, six man rotation,
Speaker 1: five days rest or whatever, you know, it's supposed to
Speaker 1: be pretty normal. Not a lot of restrictions on him
Speaker 1: on the batting side this year, at least when I'm hearing.
Speaker 1: If he goes and I'll do this sort of the hypothetical,
Speaker 1: you know, very goods on each side. If he goes
Speaker 1: twelve and six and has a three point three zero
Speaker 1: E r A but also hits twenty two homers and
Speaker 1: has seventy seven r B I and hits to seventy
Speaker 1: you know, I'm just I'm just kind of come up
Speaker 1: with the numbers that are very good on both sides,
Speaker 1: but not out of this world of both sides. But somehow,
Speaker 1: whatever the numbers are, that add up to a war
Speaker 1: that is comparable to the best of each right, the
Speaker 1: best in the league. Do voters Jason vote for a
Speaker 1: guy like Shoe Otani or does he have to be
Speaker 1: spectacular on one side or the other? He he has
Speaker 1: to be spectacular on both sides, and Mike Trout has
Speaker 1: to have a less than Mike Trout season. That's that's
Speaker 1: the hardest part. And if you look, you look at
Speaker 1: the a L M v P market with Trout is
Speaker 1: the only guy in single digits, and then you see
Speaker 1: Alex Bregman's and the one and he still hasn't appeared
Speaker 1: in the spring training game yet. He's kind of coming
Speaker 1: back from injury or whatever, and he'll be fine. He's
Speaker 1: a good player. But if if you're looking to fade Trout,
Speaker 1: if you think somebody besides Trout has a chance to win,
Speaker 1: I think there's a ton of value in this market
Speaker 1: because you're going against Trout, you're going against Alex Bregman.
Speaker 1: Every other player is twelve to one or greater. So
Speaker 1: if you could make a case for somebody you know,
Speaker 1: Jose Bray, you or whoever is farther down the list.
Speaker 1: For me, it's it's a fanny and it's it's simply
Speaker 1: Otani because his uh, his ability to do, you know,
Speaker 1: things on both sides, hit and pitches is unmatched. It's unique,
Speaker 1: and I think it's thirty three to one. It's good beat.
Speaker 1: I thought Will Hill has fifty two one. That's also
Speaker 1: a really good bet. Um, that's my bat in this market.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the really unique guy. What did you
Speaker 1: what number do you get? I got thirty three. I'm
Speaker 1: I'm gonna try to get this Will Hill number today,
Speaker 1: but I'm already I'm already in at thirty three. I
Speaker 1: don't know how much more I want. Um, it might
Speaker 1: get a little bit more. Matt anything americanly m VP
Speaker 1: any thoughts. Yeah, I really like what Jason had say.
Speaker 1: They're about if you're looking for somebody to fade Mike
Speaker 1: Trout with, look deeper in the board, and I usually look,
Speaker 1: you know, when I'm endorsing such things. Guys that are
Speaker 1: trying to bounce back. So the chalk isn't nearly as big.
Speaker 1: Glabor Torres kind of fits that profile. For me. Uh,
Speaker 1: it was a weird year for him. If the transition
Speaker 1: to shortstop is giving him the kind of trouble that
Speaker 1: people are speculating it is, then it's probably a stay
Speaker 1: away from But if last year was just an anomaly
Speaker 1: and he played a little heavier than he should have,
Speaker 1: as some people have suggested, he bounces back. Um, you
Speaker 1: can never go wrong thinking about a Yankee for m
Speaker 1: v P, just for all the reasons we know to
Speaker 1: be true about voting bias and national TV and that
Speaker 1: kind of run. Uh. And I'd also consider Aaron Judge
Speaker 1: a little chalky for this every year, even though he
Speaker 1: too is bouncing back from injury. I'd look for a
Speaker 1: guy trying to come back like Glabor Tauris. Why not
Speaker 1: yea Tauras seventeen to one, just scorting circuit numbers, Judge
Speaker 1: seventeen one, Mayhew, anyone, anyone believe any interesting? Danton? Danton forty,
Speaker 1: I think I think that's the real nice one. If
Speaker 1: you stays healthy, he can he can leave the league
Speaker 1: on home runs, etcetera, etcetera. If he stays healthy. Obviously
Speaker 1: the big but that's why you give forty Paul Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, um, I'm gonna I'm gonna kind of stick
Speaker 1: with the guys I talked about on on the radio
Speaker 1: show last week a couple of weeks ago. Actually, Kyle
Speaker 1: Tucker has moved a little bit on Draft Kings now
Speaker 1: is at forty to one. But given that I like
Speaker 1: that Houston squad and I like the dynamic uh profile
Speaker 1: that he has as a player who can do everything,
Speaker 1: I think it could have a huge breakout season and
Speaker 1: and and be a leader on that Houston ball club. There.
Speaker 1: You know, I agree with passing on Bregman. And you know,
Speaker 1: looking at if you if you like Houston, pass on Bregman,
Speaker 1: look at any of the other guys they have on
Speaker 1: the board. Care at forty, Tucker at forty, Alvarez at
Speaker 1: thirty three. Those are all Draft Kings numbers. That's definitely
Speaker 1: where I would go if I was super big on
Speaker 1: on Houston. I do like them. And that's why I
Speaker 1: say I like that Tucker number. This guy's not on DraftKings,
Speaker 1: but he was on William Hill when we talked, and
Speaker 1: it was lords Gary L Jr. Who I really like,
Speaker 1: and he was two hundred to one, and so I
Speaker 1: really think obviously a really long shot like that. I
Speaker 1: like this. I like this Jay's team. As we discussed
Speaker 1: earlier taskers at eighty on DraftKings, I think Lordens Garryll
Speaker 1: is better than Taoscar. Simple fact is, um, you gotta
Speaker 1: go find garyl somewhere. William Hill had it the last
Speaker 1: time you and I spoke about this, and so I
Speaker 1: like him at at two one. You are not a
Speaker 1: ta Oscar guy. That's the biggest thing I picked up
Speaker 1: from you. No, no, no, I actually love Tascar. You
Speaker 1: can find me hype and Tascar as a sleeper breakout pick.
Speaker 1: I don't like him now as a bona fide star,
Speaker 1: and this is mostly a fantasy take because now he's
Speaker 1: like a top fifty fantasy pick. So I'm just concerned
Speaker 1: that that people think he has arrived, but I didn't
Speaker 1: see enough changes in him, uh to suggest that he
Speaker 1: has arrived here. So I know, I'm kind of fence
Speaker 1: sitting a little bit. I like the player, I just
Speaker 1: don't like the fantasy cost and like the the the
Speaker 1: a l m v P cost. Right now, I would
Speaker 1: want other things. And Gariella Jr. Is right there with him,
Speaker 1: and I kind of had them neck and neck. And
Speaker 1: now to askers shot up in price, and Gariella is
Speaker 1: still more affordable on the fantasy market and on the
Speaker 1: l m v P market. N l m v P
Speaker 1: much more competitive again the Dodgers, we said earlier, this
Speaker 1: could be Dodgers against the field. Mookie's plus seven fifty. Uh,
Speaker 1: Bellinger's eight to one. Now I'm quoting MGM. I'm all
Speaker 1: over the place. Seekers now down to twelve to one.
Speaker 1: Everybody else Soto plus seven fifty. He's the short shot,
Speaker 1: along with bets A Kuna eight to one, Tattists Jr.
Speaker 1: Nine to one, Freemintend to one, Eronado, and Yellow twelve
Speaker 1: to one. If you're looking for a bounce back from Yellow,
Speaker 1: everybody else fifty to one or longer a full discloser.
Speaker 1: Jason and I have a Corey seeger m v P
Speaker 1: ticket twenty five to one. Yeah, we had him last
Speaker 1: year at some I can't remember what our price was,
Speaker 1: thirty to one or something last year, and then he
Speaker 1: trolled us by getting Yeah it was six with any
Speaker 1: trolled us by getting m VP, and both the NLCS
Speaker 1: and the Word in the World Series somehow finished ninth
Speaker 1: by the way during the regular season, which was ridiculous. Um, Matt,
Speaker 1: who do you like here? This is such a stacked market. Gosh,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna give you the player that I think
Speaker 1: is the best player in baseball, best offensive player in baseball,
Speaker 1: and that's One Soto. I know he's the short shot here,
Speaker 1: but uh and you won't find him at the top
Speaker 1: of You won't even find him top five on the
Speaker 1: Zips home run leader projections. That's a Kuna that they
Speaker 1: think is gonna win that Mantle and I wouldn't wouldn't
Speaker 1: fight him on that. I just think that one profile,
Speaker 1: one Soto profiles as such a grown man baseball player
Speaker 1: for a guy who's still in the infancy of his
Speaker 1: of his career, he takes the most grown man at
Speaker 1: bats of anybody his age that I've ever seen in
Speaker 1: my life. And I'm not old enough to have seen
Speaker 1: Ted Williams play. But if you really get deep into
Speaker 1: the analytics, and I would for to Paul and all
Speaker 1: this stuff, the historical comps that you make with Soto
Speaker 1: among players in an age twenty one or younger season,
Speaker 1: waited runs created plus among left handed hitters, um home
Speaker 1: run rate plus, walk rate, It's crazy how good this
Speaker 1: guy is. And then you put the eyeball test to him,
Speaker 1: and he he plays like he's the most experienced guy
Speaker 1: at the plate. Every time he's up there, he's gonna
Speaker 1: get four or five plate appearances every day. He's not
Speaker 1: a guy who's going to be moving in and out
Speaker 1: of a lineup because of some matchup minded front office.
Speaker 1: The body of works going to be there. He plays
Speaker 1: for a sexy team in the Northeast. He's the guy
Speaker 1: for me. It's it's Won Soto and all others. By
Speaker 1: the way, Paul, you recommended what we were doing the
Speaker 1: hit we for the hits market blon Soto. Was that
Speaker 1: one actually got that? So you're in for that ticket
Speaker 1: if if it's excellent, great work. I mean, that was
Speaker 1: such a bananas number. I mean, just to echo a
Speaker 1: little bit and expound on what matt saying about Soto,
Speaker 1: I mean, he's a Jen Errations, Pooholes or Cabrera from
Speaker 1: the left side. And the comps that he draws based
Speaker 1: on what he's done so far is like Frank Robinson,
Speaker 1: Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron Ted math uh excuse me, Ted Williams,
Speaker 1: Eddie Matthews, like the best of the best. Like it's
Speaker 1: obscene how good he is, and he is just twenty two,
Speaker 1: So even as a short short shot there, it does
Speaker 1: make sense to get in on him, and I do
Speaker 1: like the gnats, but I'm gonna go with his teammate
Speaker 1: for a little bit of a longer shot and go
Speaker 1: with Trade Turner at fifty because I think part of
Speaker 1: what he can do can benefit from from what Soto does. Now,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a different profile to win
Speaker 1: m VP, so he would have to he would have
Speaker 1: to kind of maximize where his powers that but he's
Speaker 1: not going to be leading off this year. They're gonna
Speaker 1: go with Roblists and Soto one two, and it looks
Speaker 1: like Turner my bed three. I think he's gonna about
Speaker 1: two or three. Either way, he needs to tap into
Speaker 1: a little bit more power to win m v P.
Speaker 1: I don't think a sub twenty homer season is necessarily
Speaker 1: gonna cash m v P, but I think his slash
Speaker 1: line is gonna be awesome. In fact, I wouldn't even
Speaker 1: put his two months numbers beyond him as a full season.
Speaker 1: He went three eight, That would be amazing to do
Speaker 1: for a full year. But Trade Turner has the skills
Speaker 1: to do it, and I know steals don't play majorly
Speaker 1: in uh in a in an m v P type
Speaker 1: of vote, but it's a nice little add on there
Speaker 1: to say, Oh, he was also having amazing base running
Speaker 1: because he's one of the most efficient base runners in
Speaker 1: the game, and that's gonna help him score tons of runs.
Speaker 1: I think I think a gaudy runs number can help
Speaker 1: him here, like a hundred and twenty five runs ninety
Speaker 1: Ribby's twenty four homers. And then like I said, a
Speaker 1: crazy slash line would would put Trade Turner in the
Speaker 1: mix there. It's gonna be hard to beat his own teammate,
Speaker 1: but the two of them, they're gonna kind of prop
Speaker 1: each other up. And so if you want to go
Speaker 1: short and along, maybe you get in on both if
Speaker 1: you really like the gnats, which again I do. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know that the triple crown. Back to the sodo
Speaker 1: for a second. Remember remember when it was the Miguel
Speaker 1: Cabrera Mike Trout motto a mono year, and I remember
Speaker 1: taking the position is there was the analytics community was like, oh,
Speaker 1: but Trout to war is better. But you know they're
Speaker 1: going I'm like, yeah, you can't go you know forty
Speaker 1: five years, where we've talked about no one's gotten the
Speaker 1: triple crown since Carlo Stremski did in sixty seven, and
Speaker 1: then once somebody does hit the triple crown like Cabrera did,
Speaker 1: act like that's not m v P worthy, Like, just
Speaker 1: stop with you. It was m v P worthy, right,
Speaker 1: But but you can't think I think Trout had a
Speaker 1: really strong case. I mean, especially considering as we've evolved,
Speaker 1: we realized that the triple crowning, Wow, cool is a
Speaker 1: little bit arbitrary too, right, But that's so. But that's
Speaker 1: what I'm saying. So this is the point of the question.
Speaker 1: So back in I think there was a historical reason
Speaker 1: where you had to give it to Cabrera, and then
Speaker 1: whatever happened the following year, then we can talk about
Speaker 1: different things and we can evolve, but like, you can't
Speaker 1: ignore it. Have we gotten to the point now in
Speaker 1: one let's say Son does get the triple crown, that
Speaker 1: he would not be a lock for the reasons that
Speaker 1: you were stating, Paul, like, that's that's interesting to me.
Speaker 1: I think so, But I think where he kind of
Speaker 1: might different cheat himself a little bit is he's not
Speaker 1: an inept defender. I think there's this idea that he's
Speaker 1: just some lug out there in the Outfits twenty two.
Speaker 1: He's pretty athletic for for what he is, you know.
Speaker 1: And by the way, to their credit, young Poohles and
Speaker 1: Young Cabrera were a bit more athletic and they had
Speaker 1: some defensive value. So I don't think and that's where
Speaker 1: the gap really split. There was because in War Trout
Speaker 1: really jumped above Magie because he was playing a quality
Speaker 1: center field while Maggie was playing a mediocre to pour
Speaker 1: first base, and so that really balanced things out. Soto
Speaker 1: can add some defensive value, he can add some base
Speaker 1: running value, and if he does win a triple Crown,
Speaker 1: it might come with like a four thirty o b P,
Speaker 1: which is just obscene. And so I think, you know,
Speaker 1: even with the the analytics forward voters, they're gonna see
Speaker 1: the they will look past the average a little bit,
Speaker 1: but they're gonna see the l v P and the
Speaker 1: slug and they're gonna see how good he is. That
Speaker 1: I do think a Soto triple crown would play a
Speaker 1: little bit differently than Trouts. Bets could kind of be
Speaker 1: in that Trout role there and then they go against
Speaker 1: each other. I think you'd be much closer there where
Speaker 1: the analytics side would actually be. There would be a
Speaker 1: contingent that is arguing for Soto, whereas it was kind
Speaker 1: of analytics versus old school in that Trout versus Cable
Speaker 1: and deal there when he won the triple crowns. I
Speaker 1: think it would play a little bit different because these
Speaker 1: are human beings, you know, voting on these things. It's
Speaker 1: always interesting to me how those voters might have evolved
Speaker 1: or might not have evolved, um, through the years, and
Speaker 1: I think we're in a different place, um, Jason. Besides
Speaker 1: seek or anything here, uh speaking of triple crown winners, uh,
Speaker 1: or potential Mike just Stremsky, what number do you need
Speaker 1: on him? Baby? That's my kind of talk right there.
Speaker 1: Yuh Stremsky three and twenty five to one at CIRCA,
Speaker 1: give me fifty bucks on that, I do it. Uh Yeah.
Speaker 1: So obviously my thing was that before is that he's
Speaker 1: he's taking Ballinger's spot in the lineup and he's still
Speaker 1: you know, almost double his odd You can get him
Speaker 1: twenty to one at Vandals. Still, that'd be the best
Speaker 1: number I've seen, Um, Cody Bellingers like eight to one,
Speaker 1: ten to one. I think that's bad number. Obviously. I
Speaker 1: could say all sorts of nice things about Soto too.
Speaker 1: The one one of those two things Westgate got right
Speaker 1: on their opening numbers is they made him like five
Speaker 1: to one for the m v P. Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: that's the more more reasonable number. I I personally haven't
Speaker 1: bet him yet, just because I'm trying to bet less
Speaker 1: players this year instead of just scattering all over the board.
Speaker 1: I do think he's the deserved favorite, and I love him.
Speaker 1: I would bet any player to win the Triple Crown,
Speaker 1: basically betting him to win the Triple Crown buying his
Speaker 1: baseball cards when I can autograph baseball cards. But now
Speaker 1: my money's on Seager contract year. Uh, playing for the
Speaker 1: team with the highest projected win total, best team in baseball, etcetera. Uh,
Speaker 1: my seeker, That's that's where my money is gonna be.
Speaker 1: Probably gonna bet more on them. So I love Oh.
Speaker 1: I know I would too if the price is right.
Speaker 1: I love that you're still buying baseball cards in the
Speaker 1: top shot era. That's why I love you, man. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't have a I don't have a right now.
Speaker 1: It is booming I know top shots on the come up,
Speaker 1: but the but the card market as a whole, whether
Speaker 1: they're when, whether they're n F T s or live
Speaker 1: cards that you can get, it's it's an exploding market.
Speaker 1: Jason could do a whole podcast on it, like he's
Speaker 1: all over it alright, A L and N L SI
Speaker 1: Young together, um n L C I Young the short shot,
Speaker 1: no surprise. Jacob de Grand plus three seventy five. I
Speaker 1: really want to bet Trevor Bauer just because I trust
Speaker 1: him implicitly. Plus nineve at circa. Those are the the
Speaker 1: single digit prices in the National League Darvish, by the way,
Speaker 1: eleven and one is the next. And then in the
Speaker 1: American League American League Cy Young, it's Garrett Cole of
Speaker 1: course plus two eighty five, also in single digits. Oh,
Speaker 1: Shane Bieber, pardon me, co favorites Shane Bieber also plus
Speaker 1: two eighty five with the Tribe and Lucas Giolito the
Speaker 1: only other one in single digits at plus seven twenty five.
Speaker 1: Matt Any thoughts at L or a l uh you
Speaker 1: know for the National League? Where where's Walker Bueller on
Speaker 1: that board? Because my long standing contention on Cy Young
Speaker 1: award winners, and it's less relevant now than it used
Speaker 1: to be because wins have not been valued at the
Speaker 1: same rate that they were twenty even five years ago.
Speaker 1: But I always go back to when Barrysio when his
Speaker 1: Cy Young Award, he was a number three in the
Speaker 1: rotation behind Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson. His matchups were
Speaker 1: a little softer as such, and it just was it
Speaker 1: was a place for him to shine as opposed to
Speaker 1: getting Clemens every five days or whomever that number one
Speaker 1: matched up against. So the fact that Walker Bueller does
Speaker 1: not occupy a number one spot, and for all the
Speaker 1: reasons that Jason just documented, pitching for the team with
Speaker 1: the highest project win total with a great bullpen that's
Speaker 1: going to score runs. He pitches in l a all
Speaker 1: the sexy stuff that shouldn't matter, but does. Um he'd
Speaker 1: be a guy that I act for that what's the
Speaker 1: number on him? One? So like that, like with m
Speaker 1: v P, we could do a you know, there could
Speaker 1: be a prop Jason, you were the first person to
Speaker 1: say this. I think, Um, Bauer, Bueller and Kershaw against
Speaker 1: the field. Kershaw one, by the way, that's my idea. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's that's your guy. Paul Kershaw. Really, yeah, we talked
Speaker 1: about him again. The pack is gonna come back to
Speaker 1: him on the inning. So if you have the innings concerned, um,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's as valid this year because no
Speaker 1: one's gonna be pitching huge innings. So I think if
Speaker 1: he gets to his one seventy five area, that's gonna
Speaker 1: put him right in the mix. Um. And he's still
Speaker 1: super elite. He's never bad. He's literally never bad. By
Speaker 1: the way, throw huio Arius in there too. As far
Speaker 1: as I was going to all the Dodgers might as
Speaker 1: well get he was one when we did the spot.
Speaker 1: I still have my notes from from when you and
Speaker 1: I did the spot on Awards. He was one five,
Speaker 1: Brandon Woodroff was forty, and Kershaw was twenty, and those
Speaker 1: were the three that I liked there. Um And so
Speaker 1: I'm sticking with those guys that if you can find
Speaker 1: him everywhere. But yeah, Kershaw, he's just so good. So
Speaker 1: you guys have all said good names there, but I
Speaker 1: I still like Kershaw. He's the longest shot of the
Speaker 1: ones that we've that we've mentioned. He besides Urius, but
Speaker 1: as far as they like the studs, he's the longest
Speaker 1: shot at twenty on DraftKings, David Price to one, Dodgers everywhere. Jason,
Speaker 1: you might, yeah, if you can get the whole group,
Speaker 1: that'd be great. Yeah, Jason, who do you have? My
Speaker 1: My biggest bet for either that young market so far
Speaker 1: as just been Jacob to Grom. I got him at
Speaker 1: five to one. If you can get for five or
Speaker 1: seventy five, those are those are still pretty good numbers.
Speaker 1: I think it'll probably drop and you probably won't be
Speaker 1: a much better number on him in season unless he
Speaker 1: gets hurt. Farther down, the guy that stood out as
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty, Uh, he was kind of a guy I
Speaker 1: got in early. I had him at like, you know one,
Speaker 1: if you'd one something on nineteen. He didn't win. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't really touch from here at fifteen to one, but
Speaker 1: but I do have my eye on him. Then farther down.
Speaker 1: It that I bet Urias that worries me that I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna hit you know, a hundred
Speaker 1: eighty plus any and I think the gram is going
Speaker 1: to pitch two hundred or close to it with with
Speaker 1: you know, normal Hell and Bower. I just can't beat it.
Speaker 1: Can't bet him at a low number after having him
Speaker 1: at a high number. But I do love the guy.
Speaker 1: Had I think if I was going to try to
Speaker 1: bet on Bower, I would bet on Bower drikeout. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that on that home runs Uh,
Speaker 1: full disclosure. I bet Corey Seeger a hundred twenty five
Speaker 1: to one just because I love the number. I have
Speaker 1: your done at one. We'll get that anywhere any anymore.
Speaker 1: And Tatis at thirty to one, and I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: ride with those three. But Matt, you had something to
Speaker 1: say generally speaking about this market and home runs in general. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, this is a fascinating one for
Speaker 1: me because if anybody claims they saw Pete Alonso coming
Speaker 1: as a major league home run leader a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago, then I tipped my cap to you, because
Speaker 1: you try to quantify this stuff and look for trends,
Speaker 1: and I don't know where do you even start your
Speaker 1: sample sizing. So I just uh started with a wild
Speaker 1: Card era and had our guys here look at some stuff.
Speaker 1: Since nine wild Card era of the major league home
Speaker 1: run leaders have come from a warm weather or dome ballpark.
Speaker 1: Only of those major league home run leaders play in
Speaker 1: an age or younger season. So for those of us
Speaker 1: that wanted to pick alec Bom as the major league
Speaker 1: home run leader, um, think again again. Since the wild
Speaker 1: card era, there have been six Colorado Rockies for reasons
Speaker 1: that are obvious, four Yankees for Orioles. Uh, in that
Speaker 1: span five Yankees pardon, I beg your pardon, four Orioles
Speaker 1: in that time span. Um, there have been four Mariners
Speaker 1: that have won one surprisingly, and then the Nelly Cruz
Speaker 1: resurgent years contributes into that. So the stuff that I
Speaker 1: like to look at here, I think ballpark factors are
Speaker 1: a big deal. Last year, Uh, Great American Ballpark in
Speaker 1: Cincinnati had the highest percentage of hard hit fly balls
Speaker 1: at left the ballpark. Almost Truest Park was next on
Speaker 1: the list. So that plays into the zip's projection of
Speaker 1: Ronald lacun your leading major League baseball and homer's If
Speaker 1: you look at from a ratio standpoint at bats per
Speaker 1: homer starting in two thousand eighteen through last year's COVID
Speaker 1: shortened schedule, it's Mike Trout, it's Pete Alonso based entirely
Speaker 1: on two thousand nineteen, and it's Nellie Cruz, I would
Speaker 1: I would also throw these caveats out there when people
Speaker 1: are trying to find a home run leader. Teams that
Speaker 1: platoon like the Brewers tough to back anybody to lead
Speaker 1: a statistical category, even you know, Christian Yellows proved it
Speaker 1: was so with his magical a couple of years ago.
Speaker 1: There are five teams this year that are using a
Speaker 1: humid or to normalize the baseballs. We don't know who
Speaker 1: those teams are. I mean, believe me, I've been trying
Speaker 1: to find this, this very mysterious answer. Five teams. That's
Speaker 1: this is a big deal. And because media is not
Speaker 1: allowed to get close to a ballpark yet, uh no,
Speaker 1: sneaky reporters have been able to give us the information
Speaker 1: and the league is not providing it. So it's gonna
Speaker 1: come out eventually when the season opens, and we'll find
Speaker 1: out which teams are using human doors. I'm going to
Speaker 1: begin my process of following the equipment managers in Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball that I know to try to get this answer.
Speaker 1: So there's so many things that factor into who's gonna
Speaker 1: lead Major League Baseball. In Homer's pure power hit the
Speaker 1: ball out of the ballpark if I'm gonna grab a guy.
Speaker 1: The safest guy out there is Mike Trout because we
Speaker 1: just know what the body of work is like. And
Speaker 1: that's my really long answer to that question. Just do
Speaker 1: podcast prep for this bet? Was that what just happened? Right?
Speaker 1: I did some prep. I did some podcast And I'm
Speaker 1: also looking for guys that are interesting like Adam Duval.
Speaker 1: To me, he's interesting. He'd be the only player in
Speaker 1: baseball to have two three homer games last year. He's
Speaker 1: a binge home run hitter. Think of what Mookie Betts
Speaker 1: did to the Orioles a few years ago. Think of
Speaker 1: what Glabor Torres did to the Orioles a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago. Find that guy with that weird matchup magic,
Speaker 1: and I think he gets a third other. No, nobody, nobody.
Speaker 1: I think this guy he has two thirty homer seasons
Speaker 1: under his belt. You know, he's not a superstar or anything,
Speaker 1: but I feel like Adam Duval just keeps, you know,
Speaker 1: having quality, solid, above average seasons. He's a good defender
Speaker 1: to sneaky good defender and just doesn't get the love
Speaker 1: he deserves. I understand he flopped in eighteen after the
Speaker 1: two big seasons with since he but he rebounded in nineteen,
Speaker 1: he was good in twenty. I like Adam Duval two
Speaker 1: and he's he's a legit power dude, and he's gonna
Speaker 1: play every day because his defense. He can play all
Speaker 1: four corners, well third base, not really, but first and
Speaker 1: then either corner. Altham he can fake it and center
Speaker 1: to if they need did him for a few games
Speaker 1: as well. So I like Adam duv I'm just happy
Speaker 1: to hear somebody give out in duvall a little love
Speaker 1: two two on uh, Paula Jason anything home run wise? Uh,
Speaker 1: I know you already have bets in pocket, Jason, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I got I got that forty to one. On Alvrez,
Speaker 1: I bet him thirty to one, and I've been buying
Speaker 1: his p s A ten autograph baseball cards and an
Speaker 1: expectation of him having a very very good season if
Speaker 1: I was really going going down the list. George Springer,
Speaker 1: you know baths leadoff gets a lot of a bath,
Speaker 1: a lot of chances. Lad uh supposedly real, real fit
Speaker 1: and looks like crap last season, but but supposedly he's Uh,
Speaker 1: he's back and ready to go fifty to one. Probably
Speaker 1: even find a little higher there, um, but no, like
Speaker 1: a beat less guys kind of focused my attention on
Speaker 1: less players. So my money's on on Alvarez here. I'm
Speaker 1: I'm a big Alberath fan, original member of the fan club.
Speaker 1: You are original because you did you get him at
Speaker 1: two hundred to one four Rookie of the Year, couple
Speaker 1: two d one Rookie of the Year. You know, I
Speaker 1: was all over that I was watching him in triple
Speaker 1: A because I was betting triple A every day and
Speaker 1: his numbers in triple A were just insane. And I
Speaker 1: kept telling you, I kept telling everybody, was like, anybody
Speaker 1: see this like six RB, I s at eight two
Speaker 1: home runs, Like this guy's gonna come up and hit
Speaker 1: like you can clearly hit the ball. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm excited to be in play and hopefully health is
Speaker 1: health days stays good. Did you haven't? And what at
Speaker 1: home runs thirty to one? You said? Okay, nice? All right?
Speaker 1: Where are you getting those? By the way, because yeah,
Speaker 1: the the William Hill numbers that I had when we
Speaker 1: did this are way off. The Draft King numbers are
Speaker 1: way off from the william Hills. And you've got a
Speaker 1: shop these because I loved Harper, Matt Olson, Frandwell, Rays
Speaker 1: and Max Munse at thirty one fifty respect defly, and
Speaker 1: now they're twenty for Harper, eighteen from Olson, thirty three
Speaker 1: for Rays, and fifty for months at DraftKings. So if
Speaker 1: william Hill still has anything close to the numbers that
Speaker 1: they had, those are waves. That's a way better place
Speaker 1: to get it. I might have moved Seeger and Alvarez
Speaker 1: and Tuttos. That might have been me. I'd see months
Speaker 1: now at MVP. Sorry, rock market all. I'm just surprised
Speaker 1: that that they're so disparate from what it was on DraftKings.
Speaker 1: But I still like those months, some of those shorter
Speaker 1: numbers monthly vandal right now. If you like that'll take that.
Speaker 1: I would take that. What about fran Miell Rays, what's
Speaker 1: he just last thing? And then we you can move on, Gil,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, thirty five thirty five grand, We'll take that.
Speaker 1: Like I said, it was fifty at william Hill. And
Speaker 1: when Gil and I talked a couple of weeks back,
Speaker 1: fran Miell Rays does have fifty homer capability though he
Speaker 1: really does. He's gonna d h every day. Uh, dudes,
Speaker 1: just got monster pop Ray is sixty two one at circle, Paul,
Speaker 1: and that months one hundred and seven D five to one.
Speaker 1: The shot just shot. I mean he's got he's got
Speaker 1: forty plus homer capability and and we don't know, you
Speaker 1: know what the Devon Denn ball maybe forty something does it.
Speaker 1: You don't necessarily need to be in the fifties to
Speaker 1: get there. So I like my's. I know it's another Dodger,
Speaker 1: but it's it's a great price on Muncy want me
Speaker 1: to want me to turnt one is gonna be the
Speaker 1: winner of the ball dead if he can hit with
Speaker 1: with any ball though, I really, I really think Muns
Speaker 1: has that kind of power like a handful of other
Speaker 1: guys that like Alvarez and Stanton and Judge, etcetera. That's
Speaker 1: not gonna get hurt by by a deadn ball. He
Speaker 1: doesn't hit cheap bees. Paul. Maybe I'll text you after
Speaker 1: this if you want some months he had, maybe we'll
Speaker 1: kind of deal, alright, last last thing then, guys, because
Speaker 1: obviously there's hits and there's wins and their strikeouts and
Speaker 1: maybe Jason, you have a thought on on any of
Speaker 1: that was real quick, But the last one I wanted
Speaker 1: to get to his Rookie of the year. Um, Jason
Speaker 1: and I share a what do we share and Andrew
Speaker 1: Vaughan or right, I don't. I don't even remember what
Speaker 1: we share. But Andrew Vaughan, Kibrian Hayes have those tickets.
Speaker 1: I do not have a Jared Killin Nick, I know
Speaker 1: you do. Do you feel like you you brought this
Speaker 1: up the other day, Jason triple A being jettison for
Speaker 1: three or four weeks, like the whole manipulation of service time.
Speaker 1: Do you think this plays into the Rookie of the
Speaker 1: Year market this year? Yeah, it's gonna help a couple
Speaker 1: of guys who are kind of on the on the bubble.
Speaker 1: You know. Andrew Vaughan looks like he's gonna make the
Speaker 1: White Socks. Helen Nick was probably gonna gonna make the Mariners.
Speaker 1: He heard his knee. They're saying three to six weeks,
Speaker 1: which is suspiciously close to the cut off. He might
Speaker 1: be back earlier. I don't know what's going on with
Speaker 1: him there, but I do think it will play into
Speaker 1: a couple of guys who might not have seen you know,
Speaker 1: and early uh, you know, early making the team out
Speaker 1: of spring training. They'll they'll make it now without triple
Speaker 1: I all right, and those are the three guys you
Speaker 1: have or you have other people. Uh see, I have
Speaker 1: Helen Neck, I had him, I got twenty five and sixteens.
Speaker 1: Those those don't exist anymore. Basically in the a L,
Speaker 1: you're you're going against a Rosaraina to start. Um, I
Speaker 1: just don't think. I don't think it's a good price.
Speaker 1: And I think I think all the pictures were over
Speaker 1: priced to start, Like Copec was like eight to one
Speaker 1: or twelve to one, Pearson was five to one. I
Speaker 1: just thought those were just terrible prices for pictures. So
Speaker 1: Va Vaughan was my guy. We we got him. I
Speaker 1: got him a hundred, I got him at fifty sixty.
Speaker 1: Just whatever numbers were out there were just just wrong.
Speaker 1: Um he's down to twenty and thirty now, I think
Speaker 1: I think he's he's a guy who's gonna probably play
Speaker 1: all season as a as a chance to put up
Speaker 1: the numbers. Um, yeah, those are my guys. I got
Speaker 1: to Brian Hayes, the only one in the d L
Speaker 1: so far. I think all the books just just made
Speaker 1: this big mistake with six oh Sanchez making him like
Speaker 1: five to one. Or Westgate made him the favorite. It
Speaker 1: just doesn't make any sense to me, why why he
Speaker 1: would be such a low favorite. And then Harleston Carlson's
Speaker 1: the guy who haven't bet but you he should probably
Speaker 1: be lower than nine to one. Uh yea below you know,
Speaker 1: he's below two pictures. But Brian Hayes, Carlton, those guys
Speaker 1: are gonna start maybe five bath plus. So it's it's
Speaker 1: the Hitters award, I like to think, so I'm usually
Speaker 1: invested in the hitters. Hey, Jason said Westgate should have
Speaker 1: paid him a thousand dollars to make their money, say,
Speaker 1: saving money in the long run. Yeah, yeah, Matt any
Speaker 1: uh any buzz on rookie that you uh, at least
Speaker 1: anecdotally or maybe you've seen him with your own eyes
Speaker 1: that you think is the guy or guys to be well,
Speaker 1: it's it's pretty amazing that rosarine Is still has rookie status,
Speaker 1: considering we all finally learned how to properly pronounce his
Speaker 1: last name sometime around October fifteenth of last year. Uh.
Speaker 1: But it's the consensus top prospect in all the baseball
Speaker 1: and he might not even be there this year, so uh,
Speaker 1: future's future years market wander Franco would be a place
Speaker 1: to maybe stick a couple of bucks in a sock.
Speaker 1: I would agree with everything Jason said about Dylan Carlson. Um,
Speaker 1: he should be probably a lower shot than that. I
Speaker 1: think again we mentioned this earlier, but clearing the deck
Speaker 1: of Dexter Fowler, Um, it gives him more at bats?
Speaker 1: How many more at bats? I'm not sure. I do
Speaker 1: agree with Jason also that this is an Offensive Players
Speaker 1: Award Carlson in the National League. And I I'm not
Speaker 1: going to claim to be intimately familiar with all the
Speaker 1: young pitching that Detroit tells us about. Oakland usually springs
Speaker 1: somebody on us who flashes, Um. You know, whether it's
Speaker 1: the hot three weeks of Seth Brown or like Vimeo
Speaker 1: Machine or one of those types. Not that either one
Speaker 1: of those guys as a candidate. In fact, I think
Speaker 1: Brown has status anymore. Um. But you know, teams that
Speaker 1: give guys a chance, uh, And I think that the
Speaker 1: Cardinals are that chance. And it's I can't talk my
Speaker 1: way out of a rosary because I really don't think
Speaker 1: that October was a like a Carl Tuffey Rhodes opening
Speaker 1: Day type flash in the PAN. I just I think
Speaker 1: he's a pretty good player. Is he that guy for
Speaker 1: his whole career? Nobody is, But I think that he
Speaker 1: profiled as being a really good player with his minor
Speaker 1: league numbers, and I think he's going to be a
Speaker 1: pretty safe bet for that this year. What a postseason
Speaker 1: he had too. We all remember a Rosarina from that
Speaker 1: that will be etched in our memory as he is.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, strangely um to the casual fans still eligible
Speaker 1: for Rookie of the Year, Guys, I can't thank you enough.
Speaker 1: We could do this, we could do like, you know,
Speaker 1: fifteen more markets, but we'll leave it at that. Matt,
Speaker 1: when do they What is your understanding of when you
Speaker 1: get to go back in ballparks? How does that work
Speaker 1: this year? I'm very pessimistic that will be back. I
Speaker 1: think that fans will be back. I think that at
Speaker 1: some point writers and and broadcasters will be back. But
Speaker 1: I'm really pessim us stick over the access will have
Speaker 1: to uniform personnel. I think the players Union is going
Speaker 1: to do what they can to keep us away for
Speaker 1: as long as possible, in part because the teleconferencing stuff
Speaker 1: seemed to work last year. Uh And if I have
Speaker 1: to spend my mornings tracking down hitting coaches on the phone.
Speaker 1: So be it. I'm happy that we're we're we're able
Speaker 1: to do it in any way, shape or form. So
Speaker 1: we'll be in the studio until further notice. And and
Speaker 1: rule that you want to keep the most rule that
Speaker 1: you want to get rid of that we tried last year.
Speaker 1: I love the extra endings rule. I loved it, having
Speaker 1: watched it to its completion in every phase of the
Speaker 1: World Baseball Classic, as I know Jason did. I thought
Speaker 1: it was great at the time. I think it's great now,
Speaker 1: even in a non COVID shortened season. It has a
Speaker 1: place in baseball. I like the fact that roster's got
Speaker 1: shortened up in September um. I thought the three battern
Speaker 1: cinimum would do more to expedite conclusions, and then it
Speaker 1: in fact, so if somebody wanted to tell me that
Speaker 1: that was going away, I'd be fine with that. I
Speaker 1: just hope to keep the extra innings rule around forever.
Speaker 1: I agreed, didn't seem like it really changed a whole bunch. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's because they the game had already changed. There was
Speaker 1: another one of those things that they did that's kind
Speaker 1: of eye washed because there really weren't that many one
Speaker 1: and two batter appearances anyway, and so they kind of
Speaker 1: fixed something that wasn't really broken there with with that rule.
Speaker 1: That's why I didn't have the impact that like the
Speaker 1: Randy Choates of the world, they've already been kind of
Speaker 1: uh pushed out of the game, and so that was
Speaker 1: what it was supposed to fix and it and it
Speaker 1: really didn't. They still need I think a pitch clock
Speaker 1: is is what where we really need to get to
Speaker 1: get that pace going. I like the ghost Runners a
Speaker 1: lot better than I thought I would. I thought I
Speaker 1: would absolutely hate it, and I thought it was fine
Speaker 1: as a night owl. Don't get me wrong. I love
Speaker 1: a twenty inning game sitting up being on Twitch streaming
Speaker 1: me and my me and my chat we're watching it.
Speaker 1: I love that. But I understand that that has repercussions
Speaker 1: for like the next ten days on a ball club
Speaker 1: and that's not cool, and it can create an trees
Speaker 1: and everything like that. So I'm fine with that. They
Speaker 1: should have kept the d H though nobody wants to
Speaker 1: see pictures bat and the strategy piece is overstated. It's
Speaker 1: not that hard to do a double switch. I do
Speaker 1: it and I'll be the show every single day. Here
Speaker 1: here was my trajectory on the whole ghostman. On second thing,
Speaker 1: I was like, oh my god, I can't believe they're
Speaker 1: doing this. This is awful. And I was like, this
Speaker 1: is the greatest thing ever. Then I went into why
Speaker 1: doesn't anybody bunt? Then I went into right, I better
Speaker 1: not complain about this because no one cares. You know.
Speaker 1: It's the whole thing that was. That was basically the
Speaker 1: the arc of that. Guys that can't thank you enough
Speaker 1: From under a cloud of smoke in Southern California at
Speaker 1: spread Apedia, UH Baseball savant Jason Weingarten, thank you. Jason
Speaker 1: has always appreciated man. Or. I think we're on the
Speaker 1: radio tomorrow. Maybe we'll text. We'll figure that out. Paul
Speaker 1: Spore from fan Graphs at Spore s p O. R.
Speaker 1: E Er, who has been doing my podcast since the
Speaker 1: nineteen hundreds. I mean in a minute Whenever podcast where
Speaker 1: first an advent and Matt vas version from ESPN and
Speaker 1: the MLB Network. Matt, we will all be listening to you,
Speaker 1: whether you're in a ballpark or not, for all your broadcasts.
Speaker 1: UM can't thank you enough, man, I really appreciate it man.
Speaker 1: It's it's so uh touching to connect with you man.
Speaker 1: Thank you, good time, guys, thanks gentlemen, with you. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Good luck to everybody baseball one from
Speaker 1: all of us on the Beating of the Book, podcast
Speaker 1: and