WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 Major League Baseball Extended Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.039 Check it on Man No Down Man Tuesday March Night 0:00:13.280 --> 0:00:16.599 and the Beating the Book podcast. Gil Alexander live from 0:00:16.720 --> 0:00:21.120 the d Our Football Home during football season kind enough 0:00:21.160 --> 0:00:26.079 to host us for a Major League Baseball preview pod. 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:29.840 And this is the great and I mean this with 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.640 apologies to Joe Peter, who is not on the panel today, 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:34.600 who has sort of retired from baseball, is down on 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:37.519 the golf um, so we'll add Joe Peter to the 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:39.680 amount rushmore. But this is These are the three guys 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:42.479 I would most want to talk to about baseball period, 0:00:42.880 --> 0:00:46.559 beginning with the first time appearance from a gentleman who 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:50.839 is known to all from both ESPN and the MLB Network, 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:54.880 everybody's favorite announcer kind enough to join us, Matt best version. 0:00:55.200 --> 0:00:58.920 Thank you Matt for doing this. I appreciated Gil. I 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.920 get to talk about a game I love with people 0:01:02.000 --> 0:01:04.720 that I love to listen to, and in the case 0:01:04.760 --> 0:01:08.279 with Paul, someone who's material I've been stealing without credit 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:12.680 for years. So full disclosure. Thank you, Paul, No problem, 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:17.360 No problem, Paul's could call. Paul couldn't be more tickled. No, 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:20.120 it's good, buy me, Like I said I told him offline. 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.679 You know, listen to him every single day at my 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:24.400 life point and I'll be the show. So Matt and 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.119 I have a have a bond here that's now being 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.440 you know, put put together, alive and in persons I 0:01:30.480 --> 0:01:32.640 like it or alive on the phone, I should say 0:01:32.680 --> 0:01:34.040 that is that is the voice. By the way, for 0:01:34.080 --> 0:01:35.759 those who are unfamiliar, I'm sure you are if you've 0:01:35.760 --> 0:01:37.840 listened to this podcast for years or numbers. Game on 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:40.520 visa from fan Graphs, host of the Sleeper of the 0:01:40.560 --> 0:01:44.920 Bus podcast, Paul Sporer from Austin. I'm sure his dog 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:46.720 will make an appearance at some point on this on 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:52.000 videos right here. Okay, Charlotte's okay, she's great. She's great. 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:55.760 You know, she's there, like yeah, I think that there's 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:58.200 gonna be like a little bit of wobbliness for forever. Now. 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.080 You know, she has a back issue, but she can 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.360 run a little bit. She's got her attitude back. It's 0:02:03.400 --> 0:02:05.760 all good. Everything's great, and you know none of the 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:10.399 other stuff that was in that one interview that everybody Okay, Well, 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.520 so I was doing a spot with Gil and like 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:16.639 just about as it started, she was coming off of 0:02:16.760 --> 0:02:19.160 an issue with with a back issue wish she had 0:02:19.160 --> 0:02:21.959 to take a much of pills and gave her explosive diarrhea, 0:02:22.400 --> 0:02:26.800 which she had in my office uh as the spot started, 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.920 and so I went through like seven minutes uh to 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:33.880 have to finish the spot. And I'm surprised Gil couldn't 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.359 smell it over over air. It was that bad that 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.160 I thought it would translate through video. And I'm just 0:02:39.200 --> 0:02:42.560 sitting here trying not to react too much too And 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.200 I kept looking back a few times and girls like, 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.800 what are you looking back at? Like he texted me. 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:49.040 I was like, you don't want to know. So, yeah, 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:53.079 that was pretty fun, bad back, explosive diarrhea. I think 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:56.200 you just also described former Golden Spikes Award winner Mark 0:02:56.240 --> 0:03:03.240 Kotze here you reference love and uh and the third 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:05.239 member of this steam Pale, and I do mean a 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:07.320 steam uh from under a cloud of smoke. I always 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:10.040 give him that intro, but really he is as as 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:13.400 big a baseball savant as I know. It's my buddy 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:16.720 Jason wine Garden, who bets baseball in all kinds of ways. 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:20.000 Thank you for being here, Jason, as well. Thank you 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:22.480 for having me. It's always fun to be on on 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.359 any of your shows. Podcast appreciate it. So this is 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:27.079 there's a lot to get to here, So so we 0:03:27.160 --> 0:03:29.400 might as well jump in at the sort of most 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:32.639 macro level, which is just the futures in terms of 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:35.640 World Series, n L or a L. Obviously, the Dodgers 0:03:35.680 --> 0:03:40.200 extremely top heavy UH in the National League for for 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:43.760 obvious reasons. In fact, Jason, you had even said on 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.240 the radio side many times they should have props where 0:03:46.240 --> 0:03:50.200 it's Dodgers pictures versus the field for Cy Young, Dodgers 0:03:50.640 --> 0:03:52.800 hitters versus the field for m v P. I mean, 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.440 it's that ridiculous. Is there anything and and Jason, let's 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:58.680 start with you. Let's do this in reverse order. Is 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:01.240 there anything in the futures market, either for World Series 0:04:01.480 --> 0:04:04.040 or for a L or n L that you feel 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:09.680 is bettable right now? I mean, if you have a strong, 0:04:09.840 --> 0:04:13.440 strong conviction and a particular team to really be a 0:04:13.520 --> 0:04:15.880 dark course and then potentially up set the Dodgers, I 0:04:15.920 --> 0:04:19.120 think you could really kind of drill down and find 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:24.120 quote bettable numbers, you know, on on teams that could 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:26.880 make the playoffs and potentially be the Dodgers in the series. 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:30.560 But now I'm I'm not really setting any money on 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:33.599 any future is, especially because the futures market doesn't close 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:36.000 when the season starts. I think if there is a 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.080 particular team I want, I'll probably be able to get 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.160 better odds on them in season. Um. And I think 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:42.600 that's the point that we try to make a lot, 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:44.400 you know, if you can catch a swoon, like if 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:46.920 you love the Dodgers, and let's say they just started 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:48.760 out poorly. Remember the year they lost the Astros in 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:51.599 the World Series. They started out sixteen and twenty six, 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:53.320 and I was able to catch that and write at 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.360 the Nadia at five to one to win at all, 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:57.880 and they didn't get there, but at least it got 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:00.920 interesting losing to the Astros. But just for clarification, Dodgers 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.400 plus three fifty Yankee six to one, Braves and Padres 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:09.400 nine to one. That's uh per MGM. Anyway, obviously, odds 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:13.040 will vary, um Matt. Let's let's go to you here, 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:15.200 and we'll even start with divisions, because I think this 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:17.360 gives us a chance you can answer that previous question. 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.080 But if we do divisions, maybe it can be a 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:23.280 broader conversation. Let's start with the at least um Yankees, 0:05:23.440 --> 0:05:27.880 no surprise, the Yankees right now, Uh, mineus to fifty 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.680 to win. The East Blue Jays, the Baby Js at 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:34.320 plus five twenty Rays at plus five thirty five. I'm 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:38.520 actually quoting the circuit numbers here at the d red 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:40.640 So is not supposed to be their year three to one, 0:05:40.680 --> 0:05:42.960 and then the Orioles, well, let's let's just say a 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.000 thousand to one is what I'm seeing to win the 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.240 A At least that would be something anything in the 0:05:47.240 --> 0:05:49.800 broader Mortkets are specifically at least that you like in 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:54.280 that group. You know, Yankees, You're it's just too chalky 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.800 for my taste. And I get that they're the Yankees, 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.280 But um, you know, some of the unanswered questions around 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:04.520 the Blue Jays. Does the young cast of legacy players 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:10.000 firmly established their own greatness this year? What's Dunedin gonna 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:14.440 be like? Um? You know, does hung In ru pitch 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:18.480 to a legit number one all year long? Does Robbie 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:21.599 Ray have a nice bounce backseason Tenner Roark? Every team 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:24.479 has questions like this, But I think in the case 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:30.360 of the Toronto Buffalo Dunedin Blue Jay's, um, I'm willing 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.160 to throw a dart at that and at significant plus 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:36.360 money to win a division where it's kind of one 0:06:36.520 --> 0:06:39.320 bully and then a bunch of comers. Yeah, why not 0:06:39.480 --> 0:06:41.800 the Toronto Blue Jays? For me, I think that the 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:44.240 Rays are going to have a hard time replicating the 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.719 kind of pitching success they had last year without Morton 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:51.360 and snell Um. Replacing those innings with guys like Rich 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:56.239 Hill and a cast of veterans um is doable, especially 0:06:56.320 --> 0:06:58.720 with the brain trust they have, their Kyle Snyder and 0:06:58.800 --> 0:07:01.440 the the intel that they bring it to make guys better. 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.160 But the long answer to your question, Gill is I 0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:07.120 kind of like Toronto as a mid range dog to 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:10.120 win that division. All right, plus five um, Paul will 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:11.640 go to you same question to a at least. And 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.160 by the way, do we have a ballpark factor and dunnet? 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:16.000 And I'm not even saying that tongue in cheek. I'm 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:19.480 being serious, Jason, do you have anything on that I 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:23.680 don't offtop my head. I could look it up. I 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:26.800 don't have a park factors to them though, yeah, ball 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:31.360 at least to see it very similarly to Matt, so 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:32.920 I don't want to just rehash it and say it 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.560 in a different way. I'm definitely not taking the Yankees. 0:07:35.640 --> 0:07:37.840 They're uh, kind of like you said, I'd rather try 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:39.360 to play if I really like them. I just kind 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:41.280 of stay detailed on it all year and if they 0:07:41.360 --> 0:07:44.400 hit a swoon where the number gets better, find that number. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:47.480 You You probably find a point at some juncture this 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.240 year unless they just dominate wire to wire where you 0:07:50.280 --> 0:07:52.920 can get better than that current number. Um, if you 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.160 really love the Yankees. But I want I want one 0:07:55.200 --> 0:07:57.000 of the up starts there with Tampa Bay or Toronto, 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.720 and I tend to lean toward Toronto similarly to Matt Now. 0:08:00.920 --> 0:08:03.120 The Nate Pierson news is a little bit daunting, but 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:04.840 I've always been a ross stripling guys, so the fact 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:06.880 that he's going to replace him for that, for that 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:09.120 growing injury, at least at the outset of the season. 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:11.760 But I don't think they're putting a ton on Pierson, 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:14.080 like he's not a lynch pin to whether or not 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:17.400 they're successful. I think they've got, you know, a front 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.880 liner in Ryu and then a few guys, you know, 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:22.000 some guys that they're really trying to figure out where 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.520 they're at. They need a few breakouts in the starting 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.280 realm to really win that division. But the offense is 0:08:27.360 --> 0:08:29.560 just devastating, and I think they've put together quite a 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.080 bullpen too. If Yates gets back on track with Jordan Romano, 0:08:33.520 --> 0:08:37.240 Raphael Dolis, Ryan Baruki, keep an eye on Julian Merryweather. 0:08:37.320 --> 0:08:40.319 To my guy Jason Collette has been absolutely huge on 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.400 him as a potential breakout in either realm as a 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.120 starter or reliever, maybe even as a hybrid who kind 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:49.160 of has that swingman role. So they've started to really 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.439 put together some pitching. And if if a Pierson or 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:55.160 if Robbie Ray gets back toward where his best season 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.000 has been. I've never been a huge Robbie Rey guy, though, 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:58.880 so I wouldn't put a lot on that, or if 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:01.160 my guy Ross Strippling, who you know, was always great 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.240 with the Dodgers that had a rough season last year, 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:05.559 if he can come through. Plus, I think there's a 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:08.040 midseason trade here for a starter that they can get 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:12.080 for the stretch run um without having to decimate their system. 0:09:13.000 --> 0:09:15.679 I like the Jay's as well. This is completely a 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.199 question for my buddy Randall Gritchard who plays for the 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.520 Blue Jays, because I love to get his reaction on 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:24.160 this privately, But like, is that line up so good 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.840 that he's platooning this year, Like, what's the story with him? 0:09:27.840 --> 0:09:30.959 It really is, at least at the outset. Now, this 0:09:31.160 --> 0:09:32.800 is a tough one for me because it's a player 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:35.040 I love, but I am nervous about. I'm not sure 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:39.160 that Tasker Hernandez is a locked in every day superstar 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:42.439 now based on I look at that season and I'm 0:09:42.480 --> 0:09:44.240 not sure that it was anything more than like a 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:48.000 hot fifty game Tasker run that we've seen before. But 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.080 it counts as a season because of the cut off 0:09:50.240 --> 0:09:51.840 and and the fact that we only played two months, 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:53.800 and so I think there's been a lot of projection 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.040 that's put on him that I'm not sure I agree with. 0:09:56.520 --> 0:09:58.360 So I think as he kind of comes back to 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.520 where Tasker has been in previous years, that will open 0:10:01.559 --> 0:10:03.880 the door for gret Chuck to play. And then of course, 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:06.280 um in the meantime, he's gonna kind up with Tune 0:10:06.280 --> 0:10:09.280 with to Lez, there will be opportunities for him. I'm 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.439 not If I'm gret Chuck, I'm not too worried. I 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:13.440 think he's gonna at least get four and fifty point 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:16.800 appearances with a good shot at five hundred plus. Jason 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:21.440 anything to add at least divisions. I'd lay the Yankees 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:25.719 two hundred preferably on credit if I could. Um, I 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:27.800 think they win the division, and I don't think the 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.400 Blue Jays are bad team. I just think the Yankees 0:10:30.440 --> 0:10:32.680 are probably gonna win the division and there's a little 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:36.160 bit of value left on credit being the key phrase 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.120 to that, because what is it like macroeconomics want to 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:41.600 won the opportunity cost of if you don't have credit, 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:43.920 of just having your money tied up for that long 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:46.920 sixty two games schedule, but on credit all day long. 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:48.480 I'll play the minus two hundred. I think that's the 0:10:48.520 --> 0:10:50.240 tough part. By the way, Gail, before we move on, 0:10:50.320 --> 0:10:52.520 I have a little information on Duneeden and how it's 0:10:52.600 --> 0:10:55.839 expected to play, at least from Derek Carty at Derek 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.199 Carty on Twitter does great work with the with the 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:01.240 bad projection. Um, he has it to be, you know, 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:03.720 pretty decent as a hitters park. You know, he says 0:11:03.760 --> 0:11:07.480 it's not gonna necessarily be a hitter's haven, uh in 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:09.760 in best hitters park in the league or anything like that, 0:11:09.920 --> 0:11:12.200 but right now he has it as the seventh best 0:11:12.280 --> 0:11:15.280 hitters park overall and fifth best home run park in 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.280 the league, with obviously some wide airbar caveats that that 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:22.160 need to apply. There, the fence distance, sixth shortest fence height, 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.840 fifteenth shortest altitude at sea level, and a good batters 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:28.800 I all plays pretty well for offense there. So I 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.840 got to imagine that that tracks somewhat similarly to Rogers 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:34.800 Center in terms of how much of a hitters park 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:38.079 it is. Now the aspects of it might play a 0:11:38.120 --> 0:11:40.360 little bit differently, but Roger Center is a good hitters park, 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:42.680 So they're going from one good hitters park to another. 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:45.960 It should be it should be pretty friendly to hit 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:48.719 and dune Eden I like that answer, PAULI thank you 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:50.880 for that. If if it was the it was the opposite, 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:52.280 I would be very upset with that. But I like, 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.880 I like to hear the hitter friendly aspect of the 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:58.559 Jay's lineup. Met Al Central and let me just say 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:00.679 this on on the radio side this morning. To me, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.320 the most bettable things that are out there right now 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:06.400 are these head to heads that Draft Kings put up, 0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:09.040 and a couple of them are they did a regional 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.240 head to head between the White Sox and the Cubs. Paul, 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:12.959 you and I talked about this, I think last week 0:12:13.000 --> 0:12:15.800 on the show, and maybe Jason I did. But they've 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:18.959 got like they've got the White Sox giving twelve and 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:22.200 a half games to the Cubs, and then I saw 0:12:22.240 --> 0:12:26.480 another one White Sox versus the Twins, just head to 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:31.160 head with no spread, and the Twins were plus one thirty. 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:34.920 I'm like, what if? Yeah, So I get it. People 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:37.040 love the White Sox and I'm not saying they're not 0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:38.800 gonna win the division. Maybe they will. I don't know 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.880 if they will or not. But the White Sox in 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:45.679 the division market anyway, are plus one ten. Twins are 0:12:45.679 --> 0:12:47.640 creeping up here at circus plus one twenties, so they're 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.160 not that far behind anymore. But you know, try plus 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:52.920 seven forty five Royals, thirty five to one year Tigers, 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.000 paul a hundred one? Um, how do you? Where do 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.280 you stand on the White Sox, Matt? And are you 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:00.600 with me that those numbers and head to head seem 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:05.240 kind of crazy? They do seem crazy. I was unaware 0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.040 of those offerings, So in about an hour I'll be 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.839 on that check it out for my own spies. I 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.679 think that the you know, there's so much public support 0:13:15.840 --> 0:13:18.160 right now, so much motivation for the White Sox, and 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.480 it's understandable, but there's some red flags there too, or 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:25.680 at least some yellow flags. Um. The Luis Roberts season 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:30.000 was befuddling, and how a guy could could debut with 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.480 such fanfare and seemingly check every box is first passed 0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:37.040 through the league and then just completely cavern out in 0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:41.480 the month of September is a little disconcerting. I'm not 0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.480 sure what you've got there, at least short term. Long term, 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.599 we'd all agree talented player and he's going to be 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.560 there for a lot of years. I think they're gonna 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:53.479 miss James McCann um. And I think that Lucas Gelato's 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.800 public stumping to keep him around was something that we 0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.920 all should have paid attention to, and that that dynamic 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:03.760 they had between McCann and grand doll and and it 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.120 all gets a lot of love in certain communities for 0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:09.640 his pitch framing abilities. I don't think anybody who's actually 0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.280 on the field would compare the two defensively in terms 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.160 of handling a staff. McCann's the guy that they all 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:18.560 wanted back there, and then to take nothing against Yasmini's game, 0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.880 So there's some problems. I think some at least caution 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.880 signs regarding the White Sox love that's out there. Having 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.520 said that, though the Indians lost a lot, at least 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.560 a lot of marquee value, they privately feel okay about 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:36.280 their staff anyway. With Safalian Police Act behind Bieber, they 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:41.000 seem to invent good starters from places that the uninformed 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:45.160 public doesn't imagine. The Twins are interesting to me as well, 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.960 and I think, um, if you could just omit the 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.360 month of October from the calendar, that you'd be talking 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:52.880 about a really good team every year. But they're warning 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:55.280 signs there too. How much longer can you keep relying 0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:58.240 on Nelson Cruz in his senior statehood to post the 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.040 kind of power numbers that he does. At what point 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:05.040 do you pull the fire cord on on so No, 0:15:06.120 --> 0:15:09.680 Given last year's god awful numbers in terms of strikeouts 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.400 for plate appearance, he had a hundred and eighty six 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.320 plate appearances and punched out ninety times, and we saw 0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:18.240 what that did in a short, super short post series. Again, 0:15:19.720 --> 0:15:23.240 their famine lineups just don't work. Yes, they're better defensively 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:26.920 with Simmons and getting Polanco out of that spot um. 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:31.120 But I just think that there are problems there too. 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.720 Given all that, I think the White Doctor the best 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.360 team in the AL Central, I got a hard time 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:37.400 thinking anybody's gonna beat them. But some of those head 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:39.320 to heads are interesting. Given twelve and a half games 0:15:39.360 --> 0:15:42.600 to a Cubs team, it's fascinating. If they trade Bryant 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.920 at the break, then maybe the numbers should be more 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.640 like fifteen. We'll see what happens there. Yeah, there's draft Kis. 0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.200 There's a few of these that are are nutty to me. Again, 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:53.880 we're gonna get to the AL West here next. But 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:58.960 Astro's straight up against the Athletics. Astros only minus and nothing. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.560 The nothing is the end all be all Pakoda, which 0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:06.480 of course everybody knows player empirical comparison and optimization test algorithm. 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.000 Who doesn't know that, uh named after journeyman Bill Pacoda, 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.040 dates Silver's old thing. Now that it's the end all 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:14.160 be all. But if you look at the projected Pakoda 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:19.320 standings Twins ninety point six wins White Sox eighty two 0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:21.400 point eight. I mean again, read into that what you will. 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:24.600 But in the A L West and we'll get to 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.840 this momentarily, Houston nine one point eight, Oakland eighty two 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:31.040 point one with the Angels wedged in between them. So 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.720 it's a pretty interesting where these markets come. They seem 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:37.440 very bettable. Matt. Last thing, you said something in there 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.160 that I'm curious how you feel last week last year's 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.120 sixty game schedule. You know, how how much do you 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.360 buy into sixty game stats or does it depend on 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:52.800 what exactly we are talking about? Stat wise? Yeah, I 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.360 think it's b if you're talking about home runs per 0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:59.480 plate appearance, Okay, I like that as a as a 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:03.000 kind of me type stat. If you're gonna judge player 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.680 like Alex Bregman or Francisco Lindor on a sixty game 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.280 shortened two thousand twenty, you're kind of missing the point. 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.800 So I think it's case by case. It's a stat 0:17:12.880 --> 0:17:15.360 by stat. Could Luke Void end up winning a home 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.600 run title in a one D sixty two games season, Yes, 0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.359 I think he could. Um, But man, sixty games, you 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.080 just have to get in there and weed out a 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:26.600 lot of individual things, and that's where it gets subjective, 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:29.320 and that's where I think the analytics community has a 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:33.280 problem with the subjectivity of doing that. An excellent point 0:17:33.400 --> 0:17:35.000 Luke void. By the way, think a hundred to one 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:39.480 or to one before the one hundred sixty two games 0:17:39.560 --> 0:17:42.280 schedule last year and then uh not at all that 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:45.399 number before a sixty game schedule. Anything to add a 0:17:45.560 --> 0:17:49.680 le central Paul Um No, I kind of come out 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.359 some you know, I like this White Sox crew, but 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.240 I also agree that they're not kind of the lockdown 0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.280 because it's not just Pacona. That's a little bit tepi in. 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:01.080 You look at what we've out over at fan graphs, 0:18:01.160 --> 0:18:03.480 and it's eighty seven wins projected for both them and 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:07.560 the Twins and um and even Cleveland. I don't think 0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:09.920 it's terribly far behind that we have them at eighty wins. 0:18:10.080 --> 0:18:12.560 If you're projected for eighty, you're just a couple of 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:14.919 breakouts from really getting there too. So I just think 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.080 the division is gonna be a little bit more difficult 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.399 than than is expected. I don't expect the Tigers to 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:25.040 be great or the Royals, but both are projected to 0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:27.560 win seventies something games, and those are just a few 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:32.240 extra wins peeled away from those top teams because both 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.200 those teams are starting to turn the corner on their 0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:37.359 rebuilt like to where they're They're not completely inapt. I 0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:39.560 don't think either the Tigers or Royals will lose a 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:42.399 hundred games this year or be particularly close to it, 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:46.040 to be honest. So that starts to undercut some of 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:49.080 what the White Sox, Twins and Cleveland can do. And 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.080 so I am interested, particularly in the Twins over the 0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.359 White Sox as much as I like them. And then, 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:56.160 like we said that Cubs, even though I don't even 0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:58.000 like the Cubs that much, I still think they have 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.359 pitching issues. Over and a half is just such a 0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.200 big number. That's still a high quality offense. They do 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:07.320 still have a you know, a legit frontliner in Hendrix. 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:09.840 He can he can lead the rotation for two d things. 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:11.479 I do worry about the rest of the pitching from 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:13.399 that point forward, but they don't need to be that 0:19:13.600 --> 0:19:17.399 good to be to cash that bet there. As far 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.480 as the White Sox go, I think the real question 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:24.240 is is that rotation behind Giulio and Lynn gonna do anything? 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:27.120 Because Kaiko he'll be who he is. I think he'll 0:19:27.119 --> 0:19:30.800 be solid, if unspectacular. But then you've got Dylan Cez, 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:34.719 Carl's Rodan, Michael Kopeck I'm kind of I'm over there 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.240 and all the Lopez experience and I've I've been a fan, 0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:39.960 I've I've tried to I've tried to be the champion 0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:42.600 for that and I'm just no, it's done. So you 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.240 know that's too open spots there that are really unsettled. 0:19:46.400 --> 0:19:49.800 I I have little love for Cease uh Copec has 0:19:49.880 --> 0:19:52.040 the raw stuff, but but kind of where's he yet? 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:54.840 Mentally with everything coming into the year, Rodan is dealt 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:57.280 with so many injuries. They are right for an in 0:19:57.400 --> 0:19:59.520 season train as well to get a starter similar to 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:01.800 what I said or Toronto. I just don't think they're 0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:04.399 the walk away winner. So even though there's questions for 0:20:04.520 --> 0:20:08.280 Minnesota and Cleveland, UM, I think both of them will 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:11.360 be in contention, with Minnesota being more firmly in contention 0:20:11.880 --> 0:20:15.480 than UH than Cleveland. There to challenge the White Sox. 0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:17.560