1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul swing you. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,960 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. From Davos, we also heard Bob 8 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 1: Prince k c io of Bridgewater saying that we are 9 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,560 Speaker 1: seeing the end of the boom and bust cycle, which 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 1: is particularly relevant for our next guest. Uh our guests, 11 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: I should say plural who have been sort of honing 12 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,559 Speaker 1: in on this concept of a Minsky moment, and I'm 13 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: really glad to say we have John Authors with a 14 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: senior editor from Bloomberg Markets, as well as a special guest, 15 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: Bob Barbara, who wrote a book on the Minsky moment 16 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: that a lot of people talk about and are waiting for. 17 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: It is also a professor at John Hopkins. So I'm wondering, John, 18 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: just can you give us a sense of why you 19 00:00:58,120 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: wanted to take a closer look at the concept of 20 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 1: a Minsky moment right now. Well, I did decide this 21 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: before somebody in a control of a very large amount 22 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: of money declared that the boom bust cycle was over, 23 00:01:10,880 --> 00:01:14,080 Speaker 1: which would appear to be one of the classic moments 24 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: that Minsky would worry about. But even a month or 25 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: so ago, when we started on the Boom bog book 26 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: club saying read Minsky and read Bob's book on Minsky, 27 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 1: there was obvious concern that the key notion of Hyman 28 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 1: Minsky that we were trying to get at is that 29 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: stability breeds instability, that when people are calm and relaxed 30 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: and confident, they will inevitably take things too far, and 31 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: that will lead to over expansion of credit, a Ponzi cycle. 32 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: And then the Minsky moment is when the coyote looks 33 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: down to mix my metaphors and realize that there is 34 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 1: that there is nothing to support that debt. Dr Barbera, 35 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 1: do you believe we are at a Minsky moment currently? Well, 36 00:02:02,200 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: I like to say that the difference between me and 37 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: Ray Dalio is that he had the timing precisely right, 38 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: and therefore he has fifty billion and I don't. So 39 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,399 Speaker 1: I can't tell you I know we're at a Minsky 40 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: moment right now, but I can tell you that we 41 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 1: we have the preconditions falling into place, and and certainly 42 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: on the death side. I mean, just think about the 43 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 1: fact that junk bonds yielded sixteen percent in two thousand nine. 44 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,800 Speaker 1: In other words, no one was willing to to lend 45 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 1: to a risky company, and now you're seeing them at 46 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 1: less than five percent. So there's no margin for error 47 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: there now. If a company is offered an extraorin and 48 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: extremely easy credit term, they're going to borrow more. And 49 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: that's what we're seeing right now. Well, although you could 50 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 1: argue people have been trying to make this bet for 51 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,799 Speaker 1: a long time since the crisis. Everyone's been worried that 52 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: we're sewing the seeds for the next crisis. But there's 53 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, in the ECB and the b o 54 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: J sticking their thumb on the scales. Here to Bob 55 00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: Prince's point, you know, a lot of people are saying 56 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: he's crazy, this sort of heralds the next Minsky moment. 57 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: Other people saying he's right. The idea that the central 58 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: banks are coming in and suppressing volatility, suppressing yields changes 59 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: the equations fundamentally. Okay, So um, I think that if you, 60 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: if you, if you were to watch what the Fed 61 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,360 Speaker 1: is doing. Let's pick one central bank, the one we 62 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: watch most of the time. What they're saying is the 63 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:31,040 Speaker 1: inflation backdrop is quiescent, and as a consequence, they'd have 64 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 1: to see a meaningful change in inflation before they would 65 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: begin to tighten credit. A right, that's been the movie. 66 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: The movie has been you watch the wrong arena. So 67 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,280 Speaker 1: you're watching a side show the price of corn and 68 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: what you a w wages are doing, and you're ignoring 69 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 1: the main event, which is what's going on in asset markets. 70 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 1: So you're staring staring at the price of corn the 71 00:03:55,800 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 1: asset markets because you've said, I'm not going to do anything, 72 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: get progressively risk here. At some point you get a modest, 73 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: unimportant rise for inflation, but you dutifully respond to it, 74 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 1: and you let everybody know. It's a small inflation, it'll 75 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: be easy to take care of. But what happens You 76 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: bust the bubble, and then you discover that the cost 77 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: of that modest tightening is much larger than you anticipated. 78 00:04:22,440 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 1: So Greenspan talks about secular head wings in two thousand. 79 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: Bernankei says, we need helicopter money, and you're watching the 80 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,840 Speaker 1: wrong movie. And it's not that that they have ended 81 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,280 Speaker 1: the cycle, it's that they're not looking at what matters. Hey, 82 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: John tell us about the upcoming book club live chest 83 00:04:45,040 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 1: So this is a part of our ongoing book club 84 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: with the screamingly clever clever name of Author's Notes, Authors 85 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: with an E get it? Yeah good, And we'll be 86 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: live blogging on the terminal. So anybody on the who 87 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: has access to a terminal who wants to multimedia Bloomberg 88 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 1: experience this morning can keep listening to radio while following 89 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,719 Speaker 1: our live blog on T live t l i V 90 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 1: go on the terminal starting at eleven carry on till 91 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 1: twelve thirty. If you have any questions for me or 92 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: particularly Bob Barbara emailed them to Author's Notes Authors with 93 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 1: any Notes Bloomberg dot nets. John Author's thanks so much 94 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:29,600 Speaker 1: for joining us, really appreciated. John Author's senior editor Bloomberg Markets, 95 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 1: and Dr Barbara from JOHNS. Hopkins, who is the author 96 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: of the Cost of Capitalism, Understanding Market Mayhem, and Stabilizing 97 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 1: our Economic Future. Have we had estabilization or we face 98 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: right exactly. One of the top stories that it really 99 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: caught my attention was the FTC, the Federal Trade Commission 100 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 1: antitrust officials are looking into the top index fund providers 101 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: that have seen incredible inflows and surge to to sort 102 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: of record power and scope Black Rock, Vanguarden, State Street 103 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: in particular. And one kind of statistic that caught my 104 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,719 Speaker 1: eye here is that the Big Three, which is what 105 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,479 Speaker 1: they're called, collectively owned about two of the typical SMP 106 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: five hundred company, which could potentially give them significant influence 107 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: over major decisions like mergers. That is the theory and 108 00:06:28,040 --> 00:06:30,799 Speaker 1: chopping at the bit to weigh. And here is Barry 109 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: rid Holes. I have to even introduce you. Yeah, come on, 110 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: Barry rid Holts whose founder of Ridholes Wealth Management and 111 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,280 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg opinion columnist who has opinions. Yeah, he's got 112 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 1: he's got some strong opinions. Let's hear it. I'm confused. 113 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: You have to break it down. So what you you 114 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: understand how passive indexes work? Right? A third party index 115 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: provider like let's say the SMP creates this index and 116 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 1: you passively own it. Well, no, but hold on a second. 117 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: The theory here is a black Rock, particularly black Rock 118 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: where you had Larry Fink come out and say, we 119 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: are such a huge owner of stocks, we are going 120 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 1: to have a more activist approach in our shareholder. Okay, 121 00:07:14,320 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: he's he's making hand motions that I wish we could. 122 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: He could write whatever he wants letters and he could 123 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: send those letters out to whoever he wants, and he 124 00:07:22,080 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: could go on TV and he could talk about it. 125 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, Larry Rock, that's 126 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: what the president calls him. No, Larry black Rock, like 127 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: Tim Apple, Uh, Larry Fink of black Rock is going 128 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,400 Speaker 1: to own funds that own indexes, and if he doesn't 129 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 1: like the companies that are in those indexes, well it's 130 00:07:43,040 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: too bad. That's how he got to be a seven 131 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 1: trillion dollar company. He is not going to advise companies 132 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: about their mergers and acquisitions. He's not going to advise 133 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: them about their strategy. He could write a very lovely 134 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: annual letter saying, hey, we should all be green and 135 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,880 Speaker 1: we should be concerned about the future, bah blah blah, 136 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: and then he's going to go back to his office 137 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: and he's going to count the seven trillion dollars in 138 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 1: passive indexes he has and do nothing else. And we 139 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: could see this in how these companies vote their proxies 140 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: in what they actually do. All three of these companies 141 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 1: are on average of um U S companies. That means 142 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: seventy of those holdings are other owners who actually vote 143 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: their proxies, who elect the board of directors of these companies, 144 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: and they don't really care what Larry think thinks about 145 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 1: the companies in their indexes. So if I'm company A 146 00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: thinking about buying company B, and company B is has 147 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,319 Speaker 1: a terrible E s G score and is a polluter 148 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: or whatever, and I know Larry finks index Blackrock owns. 149 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,079 Speaker 1: You know X percent of this company is the biggest 150 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: sharehold of this company, I don't care. Well, actually, Mary, 151 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: thing you almost out there. It's not Larry think. What 152 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,559 Speaker 1: we know about E s G indexes is on average 153 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: they've been out performing the broader indexes. And we also 154 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 1: know that E s G as a screen is a 155 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: fantastic risk management tool. When it turns out that you 156 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: have a diverse board of directors and you have fairly 157 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: gender parity and pay, you're much less likely to get 158 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 1: hit with the sort of compliance problems. And we meet 159 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: two problems that have afflicted other companies. But let's get 160 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: back to the real core of this issue here, which 161 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:31,040 Speaker 1: is what kinds of power do the big index providers 162 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,559 Speaker 1: have with the companies that they own shares and given 163 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 1: the fact that they are owned in passive companies in 164 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,400 Speaker 1: passive indexes, and they really are not able to sell 165 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: the shares if they want to protest that is the 166 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: powers to sell. Active managers have the power because they say, 167 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 1: you know what, I've had it with you, Jack Dorsey, 168 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: You're not running Twitter. But look at professor Scott Galloway 169 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,439 Speaker 1: owns ten million shares of Twitter and said, the guys 170 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,679 Speaker 1: a part time CEO, he's also CEO Square is going 171 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 1: to Africa for three months. I'm gonna I'm gonna sell 172 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: my show. But then there's a question sort of embedded 173 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: in this is the only check and balance that a 174 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: shareholder has, this sell option? Where are there other options? 175 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,720 Speaker 1: You can vote? And black Rock has a lot of votes. Yeah, 176 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 1: but they don't really use them. But they could Why 177 00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 1: what What's What's what's keeping them from using them? Because 178 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: they operate on behalf of their clients, the investors, and 179 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 1: if they want to diverge their activity and their belief 180 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: system from the trust that investors have put with with them. 181 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: So hypothetically, there are three companies. Let's say one of 182 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 1: these companies decides to become much more activist as a 183 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 1: passive investor. I know that it's a little bit of 184 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: a contradiction in terms the other two companies are gonna 185 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 1: then start advertising, Hey, listen, we're here to invest your money. 186 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: We're not trying to change the world. We're not trying 187 00:10:57,040 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: to run a political campaign. Trust to us to manage 188 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: your money appropriately. Who wants to take that risk with 189 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: six or seven trillion dollars in client assets? So the 190 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,120 Speaker 1: the whole argument. Let's let's step back and look at 191 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: where this argument came from. So as passive has written 192 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: from a relatively insignificant part of mutual funds and e 193 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 1: t f s to now over half. Now, admittedly mutual 194 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 1: funds is still a small part of the total world 195 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 1: of investing, but fifty of that call it of the 196 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 1: world is passive. As that's taken place, as that's risen, 197 00:11:36,640 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: the active world has responded aggressively. We saw research papers 198 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: that said it's it's Marxist, it's an American it's gonna 199 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:49,720 Speaker 1: crash the market. It's going to destroy the economy. Every 200 00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: hair brained our argument against passive investing, very efficient, very 201 00:11:56,320 --> 00:12:02,079 Speaker 1: low cost, very unemotional, has been mustered. This, Oh my goodness, 202 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 1: the big index ers are now you know they're gonna 203 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:11,479 Speaker 1: they might theoretically, in some alternative universe, collaborate to stop 204 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: um stop competition is the latest stupid to roll out. 205 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: And by the way, the underlying academic research is based 206 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 1: on looking at airline stocks and banking stocks, two areas 207 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: that have been wildly aberrational compared to the rest of 208 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:32,319 Speaker 1: the market. Yes, of course we've we've seen total deregulation 209 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: in the airline industry. Of course that looks different than 210 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: the rest of the world. And banks, in case you 211 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: haven't noticed, received a giant bail out over a decade ago. 212 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:43,959 Speaker 1: So when we look at these things, those are not 213 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 1: the right sectors. If there's really coordination amongst the big companies, 214 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,079 Speaker 1: show me how that's impacting competition. In the tech space, 215 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: where there are a lot of monopolies, it turns out 216 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 1: it's not happening. Barry ri Hilts, thank you so much, 217 00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 1: Barry Hults. Guess what people he is a Bloomberg opinion 218 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:05,240 Speaker 1: I wonder what his opinion was on this issue. It 219 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: really seemed a little bit opaque to make exactly a 220 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: host of Masters and business on Bloomberg Radio. Great podcast, 221 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 1: also founder chairman, chief investment officer Vert Holds Wealth Management. 222 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,520 Speaker 1: We love having Barry here talking about the all things 223 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 1: financial markets. Our next guest really has a unique view 224 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: on the market. Michael Son and Felt, chairman and founder 225 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: of Tiger twenty one. Tiger twenty one is a peer 226 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: membership organization for high net worth investors. Tiger twenty one 227 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 1: has seven seventy members with more than seventy seven billion 228 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 1: dollars in assets, so really a unique view on the market. Michael, 229 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: thanks so what for joining us here in our Bloomberg 230 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 1: eleven three oh studios right now? After the move we 231 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 1: had in the market in what are you are members 232 00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: saying about the market? Are they running out on that 233 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:05,240 Speaker 1: risk curve? Are they saying, gee, maybe I'm going to 234 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: pull it in a little bit? So, uh, I think 235 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: sentiment to shifting. People who weren't concerned a year ago 236 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: or a little more concerned today. People who were concerned 237 00:14:14,720 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: are even more so. But our members are looking for 238 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,040 Speaker 1: an all weather portfolio, and the way they do that 239 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 1: is sort of barbell. They have risk assets in public, 240 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: private equity, and real estate, and then they have large 241 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: reserves of cash at about twelve percent, so they're not 242 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: forced to liquidate if there's a market downturn. The very 243 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: best assets they want to hold onto. Rad Dalio said, 244 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: cash is trash, what's the argument for holding it? So 245 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 1: the argument for holding it is, if you're an entrepreneur. 246 00:14:42,520 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 1: ARE members have built great businesses and they've done it 247 00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: sort of step by step by rolling up their shirt sleeves, 248 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 1: you want to have count cash to pounce on an opportunity. 249 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: If you're a pure investor like Ray, he has different 250 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: ways of looking at a fully invested portfolio. But for 251 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: our members who are individual they want to make sure 252 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: that if there's a tremendous downturn, they can live through it. 253 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: So they have twelve percent in cash, which is about 254 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: six years living expenses by historic standards. ARE members live 255 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: on about two percent of their assets. And more importantly, 256 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: they don't want to be forced to liquidate assets at 257 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: just the wrong time at low prices. They want to 258 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,920 Speaker 1: be able to weather through any potential storm. Michael, I 259 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: know many of your members and you as well, have 260 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,240 Speaker 1: a background in real estate. How are they looking at 261 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: real estate right now? Sure? So real estate is king. 262 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: It's the number one asset within our members portfolio about 263 00:15:37,760 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: I think they look at it as the great anchor. 264 00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 1: It's the income producing, the reoccurring UH income that comes 265 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,560 Speaker 1: from real estate that a lot of our members count on. UH. 266 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 1: They've taken some trips off the table a year or 267 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: two ago, it was in the mid thirties, so they've 268 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 1: taken low hanging fruit. And you have such transformation in 269 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: real estate, particularly in the United States. You have the 270 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: Gateway twenty force evan cities which are very strong, but 271 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,120 Speaker 1: even there's some weakness there in the upper end here 272 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: in New York. And then you get out of those 273 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: gateway cities where technology companies are thriving and there's growth, 274 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: and you have a heap of heartache out there. So 275 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: it's not just the one size fits all. But that's 276 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: where our members expertise is and that's why they want 277 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: to continue investing. When we talk about private equity, so 278 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: that that was one area that they have been increasing 279 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: allocations too. There's been record amounts of money raised record 280 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: amounts of dry powder to put to work. Valuations near 281 00:16:33,640 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 1: or at record highs. How concerned are the members that 282 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:39,520 Speaker 1: they're perhaps getting in at the top, even though this 283 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,160 Speaker 1: has been an asset class that has been delivering outside returns. 284 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: So our members are entrepreneurs who have built businesses from scratch, 285 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: and so they tend to want to look at private 286 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,960 Speaker 1: equity as a direct shareholder in a small company that's growing. 287 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,920 Speaker 1: They understand that there's lots of cash, but they're playing 288 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: into that trend by growing very small businesses into large 289 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 1: They're not putting huge amounts of money in the big 290 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: mega funds. They've had their day. Our members are helping 291 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 1: to create the businesses that are going to take advantage 292 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 1: of that cash that you're talking about. So in order 293 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:16,399 Speaker 1: to be a seller into a seller's market, you have 294 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: to create companies that are the stuff of legends. And 295 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:21,840 Speaker 1: that's why at the other end of the spectrum, they're 296 00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,120 Speaker 1: staying away from the I p o s. Those were 297 00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,119 Speaker 1: over priced. Last year, whether people got greedy or whatever 298 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 1: it was, most of the I p o s traded down. 299 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: So our members have shifted from looking at I p 300 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: O opportunities to venture capital and private equity opportunities. How 301 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 1: concerned are your members about, you know, some of that 302 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: geopolitical risk, whether it's impeachment or whether it's trade issues. 303 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: And they try to take a longer term view and 304 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: not let that noise get in away. So um, for 305 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:52,600 Speaker 1: the long term, our members are risk on. They have 306 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: seventy plus percent in public equity, private equity, and real estate, 307 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: so they have a long term bet on the economy 308 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 1: that is almost doesn't look at the short term, if 309 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:07,680 Speaker 1: you will. But because they know that unexpected things are 310 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: what trash markets, You're gonna come in one day in 311 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,920 Speaker 1: the market's going to be dramatically down. That's why they're 312 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: carrying large amounts of cash. They want to have that balance. 313 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: When you sell a business, you have to come together 314 00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: with a strategy, and when you meet every month with 315 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 1: people who have been doing this, in particular, people who 316 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 1: lived through the two thousand and eight crisis and said 317 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: what worked. When you can learn from your peers in 318 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: a confidential setting, you can get an edge and figure 319 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:38,280 Speaker 1: out where your place is in that In that egosistem 320 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 1: just real quick here, I'm wondering whether you have a 321 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 1: sense of the appropriate returns to expect in an all 322 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: weather portfolio through the cycle. So last year, I'd say 323 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: most of our members were in the high single digits 324 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: and low double digits, and many of them watch the 325 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: markets up twenty eight or but they had much higher 326 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: return than the market over their career. Last year was 327 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: an anomaly. So we'd like to be long term greedy, 328 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: not short term greedy. We'd like to be able to 329 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: weather through the storms. I think if you could get 330 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 1: on a passive portfolio anything in the high single digits 331 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,800 Speaker 1: over the long term, that would be pretty great. Michael 332 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: sonon Felt, thank you so much for being with us. 333 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: Michael sonnon Felt, chairman and founder of Tiger One. With 334 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:28,360 Speaker 1: members who have the dollars really really interesting to hear 335 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 1: how they're thinking what it means to be cautious right 336 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,960 Speaker 1: now and the bright teck Away living on two percent 337 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:38,360 Speaker 1: of their assets twelve percent being in cash, so much 338 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: for cash as trash. California's the biggest utility is finally 339 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,760 Speaker 1: working through or getting closer to working through UH some 340 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 1: of its liabilities after wildfires put it on the for 341 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 1: billions of dollars, throwing it into bankruptcy from having been 342 00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: an investment grade rated company. Joining us now is Phil Brandall, 343 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 1: senior credit analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence joining us from Skullman, 344 00:20:10,160 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 1: New Jersey. And I'm wondering where we are if you 345 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 1: could just bring us up to speed in the whole 346 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:18,399 Speaker 1: court process and uh this sort of resurrection of p 347 00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:23,119 Speaker 1: G and E to a solvent company utility one more time, Hi, Lisa, 348 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: thanks a lot. Yeah, and no, So, Pacific s and 349 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 1: Electric announced through an a K that they've reached a 350 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: deal with note holders and that's about twenty two billion 351 00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:37,879 Speaker 1: dollars of notes and what they're going to get back 352 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:41,200 Speaker 1: is some some bonds will be reinstated, some will get 353 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 1: a mix of longer dated notes and shorter dated notes. 354 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 1: But the bottom line is is this is a tremendously successful, 355 00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:54,199 Speaker 1: uh you know, progress for the company. Uh you know, 356 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,359 Speaker 1: first they kind of deal with the torque claimants, the insurers, uh, 357 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 1: the shareholders are getting some in here. So uh, you know, 358 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,200 Speaker 1: we're seeing all the pieces come together for a deal. 359 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: So Phil, we understand, however, that Governor Gavin Newsom of 360 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: California is not supportive of the deal. What's the status 361 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 1: of that and what needs to happen? Right? So for 362 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 1: a while there it was the company and the UH 363 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 1: and the shareholders on one side, you had the governor 364 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: on another side, and then you had a three way 365 00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 1: standoff with the note holders. Uh. And you know, one 366 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 1: of our thesis was that if two of those parties 367 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: get together, the other the thirds in trouble. And and 368 00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 1: I think that's what we're seeing now by and large, 369 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 1: the governor's moment to impact the plan in bankruptcy court 370 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 1: has passed. They arguably could have been more forceful when 371 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 1: the tour climates and subrogation claimants that they had a 372 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,919 Speaker 1: restructuring support agreement that was up for court approval, but 373 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 1: they chose to be fairly silent. So, Uh, it might 374 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 1: be a little bit late in the game to impact 375 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:01,719 Speaker 1: things in the bankruptcy court. But uh, there is the 376 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 1: there there. The trump card that they hold is, uh, 377 00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: the CPUC needs to approve this plan and so they'll 378 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,720 Speaker 1: have an impact there obviously that the Public Utility Commission. 379 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 1: Can we just take a step back for a second. 380 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:19,879 Speaker 1: I remember when the wildfires first were in the news 381 00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: and when pc n G ended up filing for bankruptcy 382 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: in short order because of these liabilities. There was a 383 00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: larger discussion about what California should do with its utilities. 384 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,119 Speaker 1: Who should be on the hook for this, you know, 385 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: whether or not this was mismanagement or just an increasing 386 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:40,480 Speaker 1: issue that was going to occur. And I'm wondering has 387 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: there been any broader conversation on that front. Right So, 388 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 1: and it's all about who made money here, who lost money? 389 00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,399 Speaker 1: And I think the winners and losers. I think the 390 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:57,000 Speaker 1: shareholders obviously were big losers. But at the end of 391 00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 1: the day, they're probably going to walk away with twenty 392 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: thirty five percent of the reorganized company on behalf of 393 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: their old stock. They are also going to be on 394 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 1: the hook to put in twelve billion dollars more here, 395 00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: So they there definitely has been you know that I 396 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: think most of their pain was taken up front. Uh 397 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: and and and that twelve billion dollar equity investment. So 398 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: there's they really uh you know, I think that's where 399 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: the bulk of the losses were suffered. Um. As far 400 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: as the bond holders, the bond holders are coming away 401 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: pretty nicely here. They're getting a full recovery, and on 402 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: top of that, the terms of that debt look to 403 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,760 Speaker 1: be pretty attractive given where the market is right now. 404 00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 1: So I to some extent, the helpful credit markets right 405 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:51,639 Speaker 1: now are providing UH is providing value to some of 406 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,680 Speaker 1: the stakeholders here that otherwise wouldn't be there in a 407 00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: in a different market. So at this point now with 408 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: the with the holders signing up and saying yeah, we'll 409 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: take these notes back at four nine for thirty years. Uh, 410 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 1: they're effectively taking the market risk from this point forward. 411 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:13,480 Speaker 1: And so you know, if the markets did go against them, Uh, 412 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: this state and the state and t g N have 413 00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,439 Speaker 1: that deal already. Yeah, nailed down, Phil Brenda, thank you 414 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Phil Brendel, senior credit 415 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, ruining us from Skillman, New Jersey. 416 00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,679 Speaker 1: You know, bigger issue, especially for people like yourself with 417 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:33,879 Speaker 1: homes in California. Uh, you really waiting to figure out 418 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,679 Speaker 1: what the longer term ramification because I mean, these fires 419 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 1: aren't going away. So it's how do you, year after year, 420 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 1: season after season deal with it. Thanks for listening to 421 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Penl podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 422 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 423 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney and Lisa 424 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,360 Speaker 1: bram Woyds. I'm on Twitter at Lisa bramwo wits one 425 00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide on 426 00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio