WEBVTT - Apple Tops Sales Estimates Despite China Dip, Amazon Reports Cloud Unit Growth

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business Weekdaily,

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<v Speaker 1>Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>It is Bloomberg Business Weekdaily. That's Carol Masser, I'm Tim Steneveek.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm watching shares at Amazon in the after hours up

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<v Speaker 2>eight and a half percent right now. The company reported

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<v Speaker 2>net sales for the third quarter that beat the average

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<v Speaker 2>analyst estimates. We're talking about one hundred and eighty point

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<v Speaker 2>one seven billion dollars that's up thirteen percent year over year.

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<v Speaker 2>The estimate was for one hundred and seventy seven zero

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<v Speaker 2>point eight two billion dollars AWS coming in net sales

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<v Speaker 2>excluding fax up twenty percent versus nineteen percent year over year.

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<v Speaker 2>SMOs for seventeen point nine percent. As far as that

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<v Speaker 2>forecast looks, Seeson at sales of two hundred and six

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<v Speaker 2>billion to two hundred and thirteen billion. The estimus for

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<v Speaker 2>two hundred and eight billion dollars, so kind of on

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<v Speaker 2>the high like yeah, sad performance. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Putum Goyle is Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for e commerce

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<v Speaker 3>andth Leisure. She joins us from the Bloomberg Intelligence Princeton Bureau.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's go to you, God Putham. This looks like a

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<v Speaker 3>really strong report on a lot on a lot of metrics.

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<v Speaker 4>It definitely is. I mean, they hit it out of

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<v Speaker 4>the park. Sales were very get across the board across

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<v Speaker 4>all business segments, AWS, online advertising, even physical stores. So

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<v Speaker 4>from a top line perspective, very very encouraging results. In fact,

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<v Speaker 4>AWS was probably the bright spot here. Twenty percent gains.

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<v Speaker 4>We haven't seen that in a while. On the margin side,

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<v Speaker 4>I think AWS did really well, but then when it

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<v Speaker 4>came to North America margins, they were weaker than we expected.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's the only one area that I saw some skepticism,

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<v Speaker 4>and I think that's largely due to their ability to

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<v Speaker 4>want to maintain low prices to make sure the consumer

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<v Speaker 4>keeps coming back and investing in its fulfillment.

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<v Speaker 2>So you think that margins took a hit because Amazon

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<v Speaker 2>is keeping prices low why, I.

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<v Speaker 4>Mean, they want to drive market share gains. Right, So

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<v Speaker 4>if you think about what's happening in retail this year,

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs have clearly added to costs, and many retailers have

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<v Speaker 4>decided to offset those costs through efficiencies to try to

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<v Speaker 4>keep an old prices steady or raise them selectively, So

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<v Speaker 4>that could be part of the pressure. And then also

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<v Speaker 4>you know Amazon has stepped up its game on shipping

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<v Speaker 4>where it was the leader and it still is the leader,

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<v Speaker 4>but they're continuing to invest there to get items to faster,

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<v Speaker 4>same day, etc.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they still do it right there, definitely completing on

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<v Speaker 3>that one. Hey Ludlow, come on into our conversation, co

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<v Speaker 3>host of Bloomberg A B Tech on Bloomberg Television. Watching

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<v Speaker 3>these numbers, I mean, investors are sending shares of Amazon

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<v Speaker 3>much higher here in the aftermarket, stock up about nine percent.

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<v Speaker 5>The cloud computing division accounts for the majority of operating income, right,

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<v Speaker 5>and this return to growth year and year of above

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<v Speaker 5>twenty percent for the first time since twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 5>It's absolutely timely. You know, I think Google gave us

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of evidence that GCP, their cloud offering, has

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of momentum at the moment, but this is

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<v Speaker 5>a bit of a barnstormer from Amazon to say, actually,

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<v Speaker 5>on every metric that we track, AWS is doing really well.

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<v Speaker 5>One of the headlines that you spotted really excellent, the

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<v Speaker 5>appreciation in their investment on Nthropic that had a non

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<v Speaker 5>operating income impact to the bottom line, right. But also

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<v Speaker 5>they're talking a pretty fierce game about their custom training

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<v Speaker 5>chip Trainium too and calling it a multi billion dollar business.

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<v Speaker 5>And what we've seen in the past is when Amazon

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<v Speaker 5>hasn't necessarily put a specific dollar figure on something but

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<v Speaker 5>said this AI thing is in the billions of dollars,

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<v Speaker 5>the market has given them a lot of credit for

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<v Speaker 5>giving us at least like a little bit more detail.

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<v Speaker 2>Ed where does the Trainium to model fit in?

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<v Speaker 6>Well, this is why I bring Google up.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, when we broke the story that Anthropic had

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<v Speaker 5>done a deal with Google for the use of one

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<v Speaker 5>million TPUs Google's custom AI card or accelerator, it was

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<v Speaker 5>a bit of a black eye for Amazon because Amazon

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<v Speaker 5>is also a major investor in Anthropic, and Amazon and

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<v Speaker 5>Anthropic have this large project called Project Rainier, a data

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<v Speaker 5>center in Indiana. What they're saying is that this is

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<v Speaker 5>a multi billion dollar run rate business. The offering their

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<v Speaker 5>in house chip to third party customers. We don't know

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<v Speaker 5>any more than that, but it does indicate that both

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<v Speaker 5>Ranthropic and for other customers outside of Anthropic, that it's

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<v Speaker 5>a viable business. You know, they've invested a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>money on custom silicon and at least on the one

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<v Speaker 5>headline we have on that it's paying dividends, so to speak.

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<v Speaker 3>He speaking of dividends and paying dividends and put them.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to go back to you on the retail

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<v Speaker 3>side of this. I mean, we know that Andy Jassey,

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<v Speaker 3>the CEO of Amazon, has really been working on improving profitability.

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<v Speaker 7>Of that business automation.

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<v Speaker 3>We've had their key head of robotics talking about what

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<v Speaker 3>Amazon continues to do at that company in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>automation and robotics. So what else can you give us

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of color on the retail side of the business,

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<v Speaker 3>which is something that so many of us right identify

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<v Speaker 3>very clearly with when it comes to Amazon.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think, look, they're making all the right investments

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<v Speaker 4>to improve profitability. In the longer term, Amazon's retail businesses

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<v Speaker 4>finally break even the profitable it took a long time

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<v Speaker 4>to get here, and I think automation will be the

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<v Speaker 4>next leg of growth to drive that further. But as

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<v Speaker 4>I mentioned, you know earlier, AWS is driving their EBIT margins,

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<v Speaker 4>so AWS can compensate these investments to a certain extent

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<v Speaker 4>and advertising because the margins here are just so much

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<v Speaker 4>higher than they'll ever be able to get in the

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<v Speaker 4>retail business.

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<v Speaker 2>How is how is the advertising business during PUNAM?

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<v Speaker 4>It's doing really well, like brow twenty two percent in

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<v Speaker 4>constant currency in the quarter, so right where we expected.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think you know that's a high profit business.

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<v Speaker 4>It's about seventy five to eighty percent profit margins by

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<v Speaker 4>our estimates, and that's flowing right to the bottom line.

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<v Speaker 4>We see it going to one hundred million dollars. So

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<v Speaker 4>there's a lot of improvement that they can build in

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<v Speaker 4>advertising and really drive that business higher from here.

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<v Speaker 2>Where's that coming from? Is that coming from interstitials placed

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<v Speaker 2>in Amazon Prime Video, which I think you know, cut

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of people off guard when they started doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>Was it last year maybe? Or yeah? Or is it

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<v Speaker 2>or is it coming from like products that are paid

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<v Speaker 2>for placement.

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<v Speaker 4>I think it's a combination of both. You're absolutely right

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<v Speaker 4>these ads are driving incremental revenue. But if you think

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<v Speaker 4>about the base of this revenue base. It's still coming

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<v Speaker 4>from product advertisements. The ads do how and they will

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<v Speaker 4>become a larger driver as the ad business grows in size,

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<v Speaker 4>But the core of it is still product advertisement.

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<v Speaker 7>Hey, put them before we let you go.

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<v Speaker 3>What's kind of top of mind for you and the

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<v Speaker 3>areas that you cover with Amazon that you would be

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<v Speaker 3>asking on the earnings call.

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<v Speaker 4>On the retail side, it's really about holiday and how

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<v Speaker 4>that's going. The October Prime Day deals that they had,

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<v Speaker 4>how that's going and how the customer is responding. We

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<v Speaker 4>think the customers are still holding up. Well, are they

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<v Speaker 4>seeing the same thing and how do they see holiday

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<v Speaker 4>shaping out to be? Where we're entering holiday?

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<v Speaker 7>All right?

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<v Speaker 8>Love it?

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<v Speaker 1>Love it.

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<v Speaker 3>Looking out for Punham's research too. That will hit the

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Punam Oil as Bloomberg Intelligence senior hours for e

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<v Speaker 3>commerce and at leisure. We want to go back to

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<v Speaker 3>the co host b Tech on Bloomberg TV every day

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<v Speaker 3>eleven am to noon on Bloomberg Television, Ed Ludlow still

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<v Speaker 3>with us at as you continue to pour over that release,

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<v Speaker 3>what else is catching your attention?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean Punham gave us the story with Amazon

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<v Speaker 5>dot com. Right, most of the audience are going to

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<v Speaker 5>be more familiar with the e commerce business than they

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<v Speaker 5>are with the cloud computing business. They are number one

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<v Speaker 5>in cow computing, and as Punam put it so succinctly,

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<v Speaker 5>the profit is compensated for the less profitable e commerce

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<v Speaker 5>side through cloud. But Andy Jasse's really focused on retail

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<v Speaker 5>being more profitable. Tim is absolutely right that you look

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<v Speaker 5>at advertising and the role that that's played there and

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<v Speaker 5>it has been improved. I would also just note that

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<v Speaker 5>in the quarter, Amazons numbers reflect almost two billion dollars

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<v Speaker 5>in severance costs. That's the other story of Amazon right now,

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<v Speaker 5>getting rid of the blow.

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<v Speaker 2>That was the previous quarter, right, not the current quarter.

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<v Speaker 6>Previous quarter exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, is the current quarter going to take a hit

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<v Speaker 2>right now or is it going to be the upcoming quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>It's always tough with this stuff because we don't know

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<v Speaker 2>how these employment agreements work.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, but the third quarter operating income was twenty one

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<v Speaker 5>point seven billion dollars, almost twenty two billion dollars without

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<v Speaker 5>charges when you strip the charges out, and so you

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<v Speaker 5>know this is a profitable business overall because of cloud.

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<v Speaker 5>It's a funny thing to say but what's a couple

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<v Speaker 5>of billion, you know to right size the company? And

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<v Speaker 5>that is the thing here. Amazon has been inconsistent on

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<v Speaker 5>this point. At one time Andy Jesse said that right

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<v Speaker 5>sizing the company eliminating roles was because of the advent

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<v Speaker 5>of AI. But the communication this past week when they

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<v Speaker 5>cut fourteen thousand corporate roles was it was more about

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<v Speaker 5>bloat and middle management, right sizing areas and simplifying the

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<v Speaker 5>management structure more than anything. So it's hard to know

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<v Speaker 5>which of those two stories is the predominant of prevailing

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<v Speaker 5>one here. But yeah, it's for Amazon, like it's a

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<v Speaker 5>one time charge that so what all right?

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<v Speaker 3>We want to bring into the conversation to Eric Clark,

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<v Speaker 3>chief investment officer at ACIVASQ Global Advisors and portfolio manager

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<v Speaker 3>for the Alpha Brands Logo ETF, which has Amazon and

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<v Speaker 3>Apple and Alphabet and Microsoft and Netflix in its holdings.

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<v Speaker 3>Ed Lolo is going to stay with us. He's, of course,

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<v Speaker 3>co host of b Tech on BTV.

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<v Speaker 7>Eric, come on in on Amazon. You like this?

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<v Speaker 2>I love it.

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<v Speaker 9>I mean I think the market loves it too. How

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<v Speaker 9>are you guys? I think the setup into the quarter

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<v Speaker 9>was pretty attractive because people were nervous about AWS and

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<v Speaker 9>losing market share, so the stock sold off into the

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<v Speaker 9>print and then you get some reality that Amazon is

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<v Speaker 9>still doing Amazon.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, how do you read into this report in the

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<v Speaker 2>context of the layoffs that we learned about earlier this week?

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<v Speaker 2>Did Amazon need to do those layoffs? Do you see

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<v Speaker 2>it as a directional shift for the company? Obviously they

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<v Speaker 2>were doing pretty well with this same headcount.

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<v Speaker 9>I mean, you're going to hear more and more of this,

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<v Speaker 9>and I don't love that as a consumer investor, But

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<v Speaker 9>the reality is, when you're implementing AI through your business,

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<v Speaker 9>and you're obviously serving other companies doing the same thing,

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<v Speaker 9>right sizing of your headcount is a big part of

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<v Speaker 9>the story. And so with robot in warehouses plus all

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<v Speaker 9>the typical right sizing, it's a very large company, a

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<v Speaker 9>very large employer. So I think we're we're going to

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<v Speaker 9>have to hear about that across most companies certainly deploying

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<v Speaker 9>AI because they're getting a lot of efficiencies and might

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<v Speaker 9>not need the same kind of people.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, Ed, I know you're doing double duty for us

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<v Speaker 3>and for our TV team, but you know, I'm just

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<v Speaker 3>thinking about all these names, these hyperscalers, these big tech

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<v Speaker 3>that have been reporting, as Zanna Agrana said, they're not

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<v Speaker 3>apples to apples, even though we sometimes.

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<v Speaker 2>Get we're getting apple.

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<v Speaker 3>We put them together and it's going to be back

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<v Speaker 3>to to talk Apple with us. But how are you

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<v Speaker 3>thinking against kind of the big cap technique?

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<v Speaker 6>Smart question?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, this fits well.

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<v Speaker 5>So what they all have in common is capital expenditures.

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<v Speaker 5>So okay, on the one hand, they will have capital expenditures.

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<v Speaker 5>It's what they then are able to say on the

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<v Speaker 5>other that they've been inconsistent. Meta didn't say anything about

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<v Speaker 5>growth related to AI, and the stop fell precipitously. I

0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:01.160
<v Speaker 5>go back to the trainium too headline from aws hit

0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:04.400
<v Speaker 5>being a multi billion dollar business, their commitment to invest

0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:06.800
<v Speaker 5>in infrastructure, but also giving us a number for what's

0:12:06.800 --> 0:12:10.839
<v Speaker 5>come online. The kind of fighting talk from Andy Jasse

0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 5>on the AWS growth and its ties to AI specifically,

0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:17.840
<v Speaker 5>investors seem to be rewarding any more little bits of

0:12:17.880 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 5>information that you can get that shows something coming out

0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:23.920
<v Speaker 5>of the investment that's happened in prior quarters. And so

0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 5>while they all have capex in common, the story they

0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:29.400
<v Speaker 5>have to tell about literal top line growth as it

0:12:29.440 --> 0:12:32.400
<v Speaker 5>relates to AI has been very different, and Amazon has

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:33.600
<v Speaker 5>something to say here clearly.

0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 3>All right, Ed, we know you're going to probably head

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:37.600
<v Speaker 3>over to the TV side, but you're going to come

0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 3>back with us a little bit later on when Apple

0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:42.400
<v Speaker 3>reports in just a few minutes. Our Ed Ludlow, of course,

0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:44.640
<v Speaker 3>co host of b Tech on BTV, still with us,

0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:45.000
<v Speaker 3>as though.

0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:47.000
<v Speaker 2>Eric Clark, Hey, Eric, I want to bring you back

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.440
<v Speaker 2>into this conversation. All the companies that we love to

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 2>talk about are in your Logo US fund. That's the

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.959
<v Speaker 2>ticker logo US. Amazon is one of the top ten

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.920
<v Speaker 2>holdings in there. It's about four point three percent of

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.640
<v Speaker 2>the portfolio. Are you buying more on this?

0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:07.679
<v Speaker 9>I don't know that I'm going to chase any because

0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:09.520
<v Speaker 9>it'll be interesting to see if we get a little

0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.760
<v Speaker 9>bit of fade. You know that some of the Bears

0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.680
<v Speaker 9>might come out and say that, well it was a beat,

0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.960
<v Speaker 9>but they're still losing market share to Google and to Azure,

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.840
<v Speaker 9>but off of such a big scale. I just don't

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 9>think that's a very you know, wise decision or a

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.240
<v Speaker 9>wise conclusion to make. And people still give the retail

0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:31.560
<v Speaker 9>business no respect. Margins are going to keep going up

0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.079
<v Speaker 9>with head count's going to be right size, there's just.

0:13:34.280 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, why do you say margins are going to go up?

0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:40.840
<v Speaker 2>They're eating tariffs right now? Well, it wouldn't.

0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:45.480
<v Speaker 9>Let's say, let's say I would bet you that there's

0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 9>at least a more than fifty to fifty chance that

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 9>these tariffs get rolled back, whether it's the Supreme Court

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:56.360
<v Speaker 9>doing it or the administration saying that we need actual

0:13:56.440 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 9>growth and tariffs might not be you know, pro growth

0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.320
<v Speaker 9>in that perspective. I just think there are too many

0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 9>efficiencies to be had that will eventually lead to margin expansion.

0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 2>This is part of a much bigger conversation. But those

0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 2>tariffs are supposed to at least partially offset the revenue

0:14:16.280 --> 0:14:20.080
<v Speaker 2>decreases coming from the One Big, Beautiful Bell Act. So

0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:22.640
<v Speaker 2>thanks cuts right that are included as part of that.

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:26.640
<v Speaker 2>So how do how does that square for the fiscal

0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.720
<v Speaker 2>I mean, look, this is not a conversation about the

0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:31.000
<v Speaker 2>fiscal health, but this all affects the consumer at the

0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:32.400
<v Speaker 2>end of the day, and that's what you look at

0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:35.920
<v Speaker 2>it does it does? I mean, the smaller companies don't

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 2>have as many levers to pull to try to to

0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:42.080
<v Speaker 2>keep prices where they are, and I think this massive

0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:46.440
<v Speaker 2>headcount is being underappreciated too, because that's a pretty large

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.520
<v Speaker 2>number that ultimately will have an effect on their ability

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.920
<v Speaker 2>to keep prices which drives traffic.

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.600
<v Speaker 9>And Amazon, Walmart, you know, Costco. There's still the three

0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 9>brands that people are turning to when they're looking to

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.560
<v Speaker 9>save money. So there's at this amount of scale globally,

0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:06.480
<v Speaker 9>there's a lot of operating efficiencies that keep margins higher.

0:15:06.480 --> 0:15:09.320
<v Speaker 9>And I still think the cost to serve goes down

0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.080
<v Speaker 9>and continues to go down, which pushes margins up over time.

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.320
<v Speaker 9>And I just don't think the tariffs are pro growth.

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 9>And it's midterm elections next year. Pro growth is going

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:23.920
<v Speaker 9>to get a lot more focus as we head into

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:24.800
<v Speaker 9>twenty twenty six.

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 3>Hey, if you're just joining us. Amazon out with earnings.

0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 3>Just shortly after the market closed, Amazon's cloud unit posted

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.800
<v Speaker 3>the strongest growth rate in almost three years, so reassuring

0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:39.760
<v Speaker 3>investors concerned that the largest seller of rented computing power

0:15:39.800 --> 0:15:43.720
<v Speaker 3>was losing ground to rivals AWS. Amazon Web Services posted

0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:47.040
<v Speaker 3>revenue of thirty three billion dollars, an increase of twenty

0:15:47.080 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 3>percent from the prior year and the biggest year over

0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 3>year rise since the end of twenty twenty two, analysts

0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 3>on average had estimated about eighteen percent growth. We are

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 3>still looking at this stock up about nine point two

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 3>percent in the after market. We've seen it up as

0:16:02.160 --> 0:16:06.280
<v Speaker 3>much as ten percent, but again, investors definitely all.

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:06.960
<v Speaker 7>In on what they got.

0:16:07.080 --> 0:16:09.440
<v Speaker 2>Okay, So Eric on the AWS side is I know,

0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 2>you look at the consumer, but AWS powers this company

0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 2>from a profitability perspective. Still more room in your view

0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 2>for AWS to get market share. That was a question

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 2>that a lot of people had going into this call.

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.000
<v Speaker 9>You know, I mean, I've been listening to a bunch

0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.480
<v Speaker 9>of calls from a bunch of different tech companies and

0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:30.360
<v Speaker 9>retail companies. There is so much demand for these products

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:33.520
<v Speaker 9>and services and tools that I think there's enough business

0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 9>to go around for everybody. And you know, I understand

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:40.320
<v Speaker 9>that Google has Gemini and Azure has open ai and

0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 9>chat youpt, but you know, don't underestimate anthropic and its role.

0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 9>Every company is going to do things a little bit differently,

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.640
<v Speaker 9>and the inference is obviously the most important part long term.

0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.560
<v Speaker 9>So I think there's enough business to go around, and

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 9>I have learned not to underestimate Amazon's management team. The

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:03.360
<v Speaker 9>stock can lag when they're in these big capex cycles

0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:06.359
<v Speaker 9>and then it plays WI could catch up with with

0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:09.040
<v Speaker 9>the monetization part of it. But they've said now for

0:17:09.080 --> 0:17:12.320
<v Speaker 9>two quarters that they their business is stable enough at

0:17:12.320 --> 0:17:15.280
<v Speaker 9>the retail and at aws that they can fund the

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:19.240
<v Speaker 9>growth while not you know, spending too much. Meta got

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.240
<v Speaker 9>crushed because the expense structure is out of control, and

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:23.680
<v Speaker 9>I don't see that here with Amazon.

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:28.040
<v Speaker 2>So to be fair, alphabet is your fifth biggest holding

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 2>in your logo ETF, so you are able to kind

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:34.720
<v Speaker 2>of get exposure to both. We do, we do.

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:38.400
<v Speaker 9>I mean the Google the Google quarter was was was stellar.

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 9>Growth is strong, and that you know clearly with that

0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:45.480
<v Speaker 9>big acquisition on cybersecurity that that is the next phase

0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:48.640
<v Speaker 9>of Google rather than search, because we know search might

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:50.640
<v Speaker 9>be a bit of a melting ice cube over time,

0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 9>but it is a slow moving melting ice cube, and

0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:57.640
<v Speaker 9>so they're they're doing exceptional things and clearly underestimated looking

0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.680
<v Speaker 9>at the stock over the you know, over the last

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:00.880
<v Speaker 9>couple months, Erica.

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 3>Do you want to go back to Amazon again? Still

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:05.679
<v Speaker 3>up about nine percent here in the aftermarket. You know,

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.439
<v Speaker 3>you mentioned anthropic and in the release I did a

0:18:08.480 --> 0:18:11.639
<v Speaker 3>search as soon as it came out because investors and

0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 3>analysts were curious about that net income increased to twenty

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:19.840
<v Speaker 3>one point two billion in the third quarter for Amazon

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.760
<v Speaker 3>compared with fifteen point three billion in the third quarter

0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 3>one year ago.

0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:25.880
<v Speaker 7>Third quarter twenty twenty five.

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.000
<v Speaker 3>Net income includes pre tax gains of nine and a

0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 3>half billion included in non operating income from their investments

0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.520
<v Speaker 3>in Anthropic, so that investment paying off.

0:18:39.119 --> 0:18:41.680
<v Speaker 9>Very much so, and the same thing could be said

0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:47.040
<v Speaker 9>about Microsoft and and open Ai. So you know, they've

0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.399
<v Speaker 9>picked a bunch of the megacaps have all picked a

0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:55.639
<v Speaker 9>handful of these companies, And obviously it's about computing, power

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:59.320
<v Speaker 9>and energy because the demand is clearly there. They just

0:18:59.400 --> 0:19:01.720
<v Speaker 9>need to be able to serve the demand. And the

0:19:01.720 --> 0:19:03.959
<v Speaker 9>good news is they don't do it all in one

0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.920
<v Speaker 9>or two quarters. This is probably sustainable demand and sustainable

0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.720
<v Speaker 9>growth for the next couple of years for all these companies.

0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:14.160
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:15.200
<v Speaker 2>up after this.

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:22.960
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch

0:19:23.040 --> 0:19:25.720
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five Easter and

0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:29.840
<v Speaker 1>listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:34.240
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:36.119
<v Speaker 7>Apple is out. Let's get to it, folks.

0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:38.159
<v Speaker 2>Okay, well, there were some beats and there were some misses.

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:41.240
<v Speaker 2>Let's start with the missus fourth quarter Greater China revenue

0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:44.800
<v Speaker 2>a big, big miss there, fourteen point four nine billion dollars.

0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:47.679
<v Speaker 2>The stimus for sixteen point four to three billion dollars

0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.199
<v Speaker 2>overall revenue, though coming in above one hundred billion dollars

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.240
<v Speaker 2>that for the first time ever. For the September quarter

0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:58.960
<v Speaker 2>Greater China revenue twelve percent below CONCESSUS estimate. Services came

0:19:59.000 --> 0:20:02.600
<v Speaker 2>in with a nice beat. Another miss, surprisingly, the iPhone

0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:05.200
<v Speaker 2>forty nine point zero three billion versus forty nine point

0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:06.040
<v Speaker 2>three billion dollars.

0:20:06.119 --> 0:20:10.000
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, Mark Kerman saying operating expensive expenses which everyone is

0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:12.199
<v Speaker 3>now closely watching. Things to meta came in line with

0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 3>expectations of fifteen point nine one billion. I'm sure we

0:20:15.560 --> 0:20:18.200
<v Speaker 3>will hear more about investing on the call that's coming

0:20:18.720 --> 0:20:22.920
<v Speaker 3>from our Markerman, who covers Apple so closely and looks

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:24.719
<v Speaker 3>at consumer tech overall.

0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:26.720
<v Speaker 7>Let's get to it with Jay Goldberg.

0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:31.880
<v Speaker 3>He's senior alys Semiconductors and Electronics at Seaport Research Partners.

0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:35.560
<v Speaker 3>He's got to buy on Apple, joining us from San Francisco.

0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:37.480
<v Speaker 7>Take it away, Apple, what do you think?

0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:39.879
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, it looks it looks okay.

0:20:40.080 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 10>It's it's not perfect, it's not totally clean, but it's

0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:44.240
<v Speaker 10>it's got some good stuff.

0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.159
<v Speaker 6>It's got some you know, okay stuff.

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 2>The yeah, go ahead, Carol, Well what's good?

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.200
<v Speaker 7>What's okay?

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:51.679
<v Speaker 6>I mean, just go on.

0:20:51.720 --> 0:20:53.800
<v Speaker 10>Against my numbers, it looks like services is much stronger

0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 10>than I expected. iPhone was good. iPad was surprisingly good.

0:20:57.840 --> 0:20:59.719
<v Speaker 10>I don't know if anyone tracks that anymore, but iPad

0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:03.400
<v Speaker 10>was good, and gross margins were better than expected. I've

0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:06.679
<v Speaker 10>been a little cautious about gross margins and consumer companies

0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:09.600
<v Speaker 10>lately because memory prices are going up. But that's not

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 10>I don't see that in Apple's numbers. So, you know,

0:21:12.920 --> 0:21:14.520
<v Speaker 10>the China stuff. You pointed that out.

0:21:14.560 --> 0:21:16.960
<v Speaker 6>I think that's that's concerning, not entirely surprising.

0:21:18.600 --> 0:21:21.600
<v Speaker 2>It's not surprising. Back twelve percent below consensus. Why so

0:21:21.640 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 2>it surprised some people.

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:27.719
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I mean, just given the state of the world,

0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.920
<v Speaker 10>I think expecting too much from an American company selling

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:34.160
<v Speaker 10>it to China right now is going to always disappoint.

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:35.919
<v Speaker 10>But you know, hopefully we have a trade deal and

0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:36.640
<v Speaker 10>that all goes away.

0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:38.760
<v Speaker 2>It's a trade truce, I think is the way that

0:21:39.160 --> 0:21:41.840
<v Speaker 2>we heard about it today. Trade is a trade truce,

0:21:41.880 --> 0:21:44.720
<v Speaker 2>and not for that to go away.

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:45.200
<v Speaker 6>I think.

0:21:45.240 --> 0:21:47.720
<v Speaker 10>So I think more and more practically what was going

0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:50.040
<v Speaker 10>on in China is the iPad, the iPhone err is

0:21:50.080 --> 0:21:50.880
<v Speaker 10>not available there.

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:51.840
<v Speaker 6>It's hard to get here.

0:21:52.520 --> 0:21:55.120
<v Speaker 10>Production I hasn't fully ramped yet, and I think that's

0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:57.720
<v Speaker 10>going to be the real hit, right, And this is Apple.

0:21:57.760 --> 0:21:59.200
<v Speaker 10>They know how to get their supply chain in time

0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:02.800
<v Speaker 10>for the year end holiday shopping season. And I don't

0:22:02.800 --> 0:22:04.439
<v Speaker 10>think I've had I don't think the iPhone Air is

0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:06.919
<v Speaker 10>readily available in China, So I think that will that

0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:09.360
<v Speaker 10>will help. And so if you're a Chinese consumer, you're

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:11.960
<v Speaker 10>looking at it, you see the iPhone air coming, You're

0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:13.679
<v Speaker 10>going to hold off on your iPhone purchases now and

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:14.840
<v Speaker 10>wait for that, all right.

0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 3>Shares of Apple now up about one percent here in

0:22:17.320 --> 0:22:19.480
<v Speaker 3>the aftermarket, So bounce it around, no doubt about it.

0:22:19.520 --> 0:22:21.000
<v Speaker 7>Are Mark German on our live.

0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:25.080
<v Speaker 3>Blog, who covers Apple and often is breaking exclusives on

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:28.720
<v Speaker 3>the company, noting that while China is harsh, they are.

0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 7>Likely pleased investors.

0:22:30.600 --> 0:22:33.000
<v Speaker 3>They are likely pleased with the overall revenue growth of

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:36.159
<v Speaker 3>eight percent, the giant services number, that's something Jay just

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.200
<v Speaker 3>pointed out, and the six percent year over year iPhone

0:22:39.320 --> 0:22:43.080
<v Speaker 3>growth overall a solid quarter, So top of mind for you, like,

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:45.680
<v Speaker 3>what is it that you would what do you want

0:22:45.680 --> 0:22:51.040
<v Speaker 3>to know more from when it comes to Apple here, Jay, I.

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:53.080
<v Speaker 10>Think I'm willing to wait on the AI story. I

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:54.639
<v Speaker 10>know your previous guest was talking about that, and he's

0:22:54.640 --> 0:22:57.320
<v Speaker 10>absolutely right. The AI story is important for Apple, but

0:22:57.359 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 10>I don't think it's important today.

0:22:58.600 --> 0:23:00.440
<v Speaker 6>I can wait six months, nine more. It's a year

0:23:00.480 --> 0:23:01.360
<v Speaker 6>for them to sort it out.

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:06.480
<v Speaker 10>Right When remember when Apple Maps launched whatever ten years ago,

0:23:06.840 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 10>it was terrible, it was a joke. Now I use

0:23:09.400 --> 0:23:11.480
<v Speaker 10>Apple Maps more than I use Google Maps. It's gotten

0:23:11.520 --> 0:23:13.879
<v Speaker 10>it's gotten better. Sometimes Apple just takes a while to

0:23:13.880 --> 0:23:16.720
<v Speaker 10>get there. So I'm okay waiting with it. They need

0:23:16.720 --> 0:23:18.399
<v Speaker 10>to solve it, that's really important, but they don't need

0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 10>to solve it this quarter. I would like to just

0:23:20.359 --> 0:23:22.760
<v Speaker 10>hear them talk about supply chain and what's going on

0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:26.359
<v Speaker 10>in China, and you know what's driving What are the

0:23:26.400 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 10>dynamics of the iPhone business?

0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:28.760
<v Speaker 6>I think that's the most important.

0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:32.040
<v Speaker 2>Is there a compelling reason for people to upgrade to seventeen,

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:33.840
<v Speaker 2>to the iPhone seventeen.

0:23:35.600 --> 0:23:39.760
<v Speaker 10>I think the air is pretty intriguing. I'm on the fence.

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:43.320
<v Speaker 10>I usually upgrade every year. I think I'm gonna hold

0:23:43.359 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 10>OUTO because I'm pretty sure they're gonna have a foldable

0:23:45.119 --> 0:23:49.119
<v Speaker 10>phone next year, so that'll be exciting. But I think that,

0:23:49.480 --> 0:23:51.399
<v Speaker 10>you know, everyone I talked to has the air is

0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:54.000
<v Speaker 10>just it raves about it, like they're enthusiastic about this

0:23:54.080 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 10>iPhone in a way that I haven't heard people be

0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:57.600
<v Speaker 10>enthusiastic about an iPhone in many years.

0:23:58.320 --> 0:23:59.000
<v Speaker 7>Just a rehash.

0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:01.440
<v Speaker 3>We've got now of Apple up about one point eight

0:24:01.480 --> 0:24:05.679
<v Speaker 3>percent here in the after market. So this is despite

0:24:05.720 --> 0:24:09.480
<v Speaker 3>those disappointing sales in China which did fall short of

0:24:09.520 --> 0:24:13.520
<v Speaker 3>analyst estimates, but strong over sales in the overall sales

0:24:13.520 --> 0:24:16.240
<v Speaker 3>in the period. Hey, let's go to our LA bureau

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:17.639
<v Speaker 3>for a moment. We're going to come back to Jay

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:21.720
<v Speaker 3>Goldberg in just a minute or two. Marcus Bloomberg, news

0:24:21.720 --> 0:24:24.000
<v Speaker 3>Managing editor for Global Consumer Technology.

0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:25.439
<v Speaker 7>He is out there in our LA.

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:29.359
<v Speaker 3>Bureau mark fascinating in a short period of time, twelve

0:24:29.359 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 3>minutes to see the stock being sold off a little

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:36.280
<v Speaker 3>bit to now rallying almost two percent walk us through

0:24:36.280 --> 0:24:36.720
<v Speaker 3>this quarter.

0:24:36.800 --> 0:24:37.840
<v Speaker 7>What stands out here.

0:24:38.960 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, what stands out here is iPhone obviously grew tremendously

0:24:42.560 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 11>six percent year over year. They beat in nearly every

0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:50.640
<v Speaker 11>product category except the iPad. Had an extremely slight miss

0:24:50.680 --> 0:24:53.120
<v Speaker 11>on Wall Street forecast, and again those are just forecast

0:24:53.240 --> 0:24:56.320
<v Speaker 11>numbers that get made up anyways, so I don't think

0:24:56.359 --> 0:24:58.960
<v Speaker 11>too big of a deal there. The big one, though,

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:02.199
<v Speaker 11>is a big line and miss in Greater China. I

0:25:02.200 --> 0:25:04.680
<v Speaker 11>think some of that can be attributed to the iPhone

0:25:04.720 --> 0:25:08.080
<v Speaker 11>Air delay, which was not expected, and they originally announced

0:25:08.119 --> 0:25:12.080
<v Speaker 11>the iPhone Air they anticipated a September release alongside the

0:25:12.080 --> 0:25:16.080
<v Speaker 11>other models. That model has been doing decently in China

0:25:16.119 --> 0:25:18.680
<v Speaker 11>since it was released just about a week ago.

0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:18.960
<v Speaker 6>Now.

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:23.560
<v Speaker 11>The other thing to point out is the seesaw you saw. Originally,

0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:27.920
<v Speaker 11>the stock dipped on the China development, and maybe iPhone

0:25:27.960 --> 0:25:31.360
<v Speaker 11>sales weren't as strong as some had anticipated. But Tim

0:25:31.520 --> 0:25:35.400
<v Speaker 11>Cook told news outlets that got pre briefed on the

0:25:35.520 --> 0:25:39.560
<v Speaker 11>Apple earnings results earlier today that the December quarter would

0:25:39.560 --> 0:25:43.200
<v Speaker 11>grow ten to twelve percent on an annual basis, which

0:25:43.240 --> 0:25:47.720
<v Speaker 11>is obviously a fantastic jump for them. That is a

0:25:48.040 --> 0:25:49.840
<v Speaker 11>year over year growth on holiday period we have not

0:25:49.960 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 11>seen for a very long time, and Apple hasn't provided

0:25:53.960 --> 0:25:57.080
<v Speaker 11>guidance in a very long time because of COVID and

0:25:57.359 --> 0:25:58.680
<v Speaker 11>everything that's happened since then.

0:25:58.760 --> 0:26:00.000
<v Speaker 10>So it's pretty signific.

0:26:00.320 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, shares up two point nine percent as we speak

0:26:03.400 --> 0:26:05.639
<v Speaker 2>right now. Mark, just one more question for you, and

0:26:05.640 --> 0:26:08.119
<v Speaker 2>then I know you got to run on China, and

0:26:08.119 --> 0:26:10.120
<v Speaker 2>the big miss on China you said it's not too

0:26:10.119 --> 0:26:13.760
<v Speaker 2>surprising yet still came in twelve percent below consensus estimates

0:26:14.280 --> 0:26:16.399
<v Speaker 2>is I'm not going to say Apples should throw in

0:26:16.440 --> 0:26:19.399
<v Speaker 2>the towel in China, but how vulnerable is Apple in China?

0:26:20.840 --> 0:26:23.760
<v Speaker 11>They're certainly vulnerable in China, but they have obviously a

0:26:23.800 --> 0:26:28.600
<v Speaker 11>big retail portfolio there of about fifty stores. As I've

0:26:28.640 --> 0:26:31.879
<v Speaker 11>said multiple times, they need to start launching products that

0:26:31.920 --> 0:26:34.720
<v Speaker 11>are specific to the Chinese market. They still don't have

0:26:34.800 --> 0:26:38.280
<v Speaker 11>their AI strategy together in China, and so we'll see

0:26:38.320 --> 0:26:41.720
<v Speaker 11>once AI is implemented in iPhones in China next year,

0:26:41.760 --> 0:26:45.000
<v Speaker 11>if that begins helping turn some things around, and we'll see.

0:26:45.119 --> 0:26:46.840
<v Speaker 11>You know, we're going to have some pent up demand

0:26:46.920 --> 0:26:49.399
<v Speaker 11>in China now for the current court or the first

0:26:49.480 --> 0:26:52.080
<v Speaker 11>court or the holiday period because the iPhone Air didn't

0:26:52.080 --> 0:26:55.960
<v Speaker 11>go on sale in September during the September period.

0:26:56.080 --> 0:26:57.520
<v Speaker 3>All right, Mark, we know you get to run over

0:26:57.560 --> 0:27:01.200
<v Speaker 3>to the TV side, so appreciate you jump on with us.

0:27:01.240 --> 0:27:05.000
<v Speaker 3>Mark German, he's Bloomberg News Managing editor for Global Consumer Tech. Really,

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:08.160
<v Speaker 3>as we remind everybody, our go to on Apple breaking

0:27:08.240 --> 0:27:11.600
<v Speaker 3>all these exclusives, and right now the stock is trending

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:14.560
<v Speaker 3>higher now, up about three point five percent. I will

0:27:14.560 --> 0:27:19.399
<v Speaker 3>point out that Mark mentioned some news that the chief

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:22.880
<v Speaker 3>financial officer had shared with some various media outlets. I'm

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:25.920
<v Speaker 3>just looking at the Financial Times and again just going

0:27:25.960 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 3>back to that Apple gave a bullish outlook for its

0:27:28.119 --> 0:27:34.159
<v Speaker 3>crucial holiday sales period, reported record annual profit today, the

0:27:34.240 --> 0:27:39.280
<v Speaker 3>CFO Kevin Perrick saying Apple expects total company revenue to

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:42.399
<v Speaker 3>grow ten to twelve percent year over year in the

0:27:42.520 --> 0:27:46.840
<v Speaker 3>three months to December, with iPhone revenue growing double digits.

0:27:46.920 --> 0:27:49.439
<v Speaker 3>So that's what Mark was talking about, and that is

0:27:49.520 --> 0:27:53.800
<v Speaker 3>probably why we are seeing Apple shares do that turnaround

0:27:53.800 --> 0:27:55.760
<v Speaker 3>now up almost four percent in the after market.

0:27:55.840 --> 0:27:58.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, pretty remarkable to see the turnaround, but you

0:27:58.240 --> 0:28:01.760
<v Speaker 2>know that's what happens, and you get more detail from executives.

0:28:01.760 --> 0:28:03.720
<v Speaker 2>The call hasn't even started yet, so we'll wait for

0:28:03.760 --> 0:28:06.119
<v Speaker 2>the call also to start, and maybe we'll see some

0:28:06.160 --> 0:28:09.080
<v Speaker 2>more movement there too. Just to repeat. Fourth quarter i'pad

0:28:09.119 --> 0:28:11.800
<v Speaker 2>revenue coming in ever so slightly below estimates at six

0:28:11.880 --> 0:28:14.679
<v Speaker 2>point nine to five billion dollars. Products revenue coming in

0:28:14.720 --> 0:28:17.480
<v Speaker 2>above estimates. Greater China revenue a big miss there, fourteen

0:28:17.520 --> 0:28:21.080
<v Speaker 2>point four nine billion dollars, twelve percent below consensus estimates

0:28:21.080 --> 0:28:23.800
<v Speaker 2>of sixteen point four to three billion dollars. Fourth Quarter

0:28:23.800 --> 0:28:26.000
<v Speaker 2>earnings for share coming in above estimates at one dollar

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 2>and eighty five cents. MAC revenue beating at eight point

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:32.040
<v Speaker 2>seven three billion dollars. Fourth Quarter services revenue also a

0:28:32.040 --> 0:28:35.080
<v Speaker 2>beat there, twenty eight point seventy five billion dollars.

0:28:35.119 --> 0:28:38.360
<v Speaker 7>Try to turn around in the after market trade. Let's

0:28:38.400 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 7>go back. We've got still with us.

0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:43.160
<v Speaker 3>Jay Goldberg, senior analyst Semiconductors and Electronics. He's got a

0:28:43.160 --> 0:28:46.960
<v Speaker 3>buy rating on Apple. He's over at Seaport Research Partners.

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:49.959
<v Speaker 3>He's there in San Francisco. Also in San Francisco at

0:28:49.960 --> 0:28:53.240
<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg News Bureau, Ed Ludlow co host a b

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:58.040
<v Speaker 3>Tech joining us. Of course, that airs on Bloomberg Television.

0:28:58.920 --> 0:29:02.080
<v Speaker 3>I do want to ask you, ed, since you've had

0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 3>some moments to look at that Apple release. We just

0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:10.120
<v Speaker 3>talked with Mark German about what the CFO has said

0:29:10.320 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 3>to I guess sharing with some media outlets about Apple

0:29:15.800 --> 0:29:19.520
<v Speaker 3>revenue growing ten to twelve percent per year our year

0:29:19.560 --> 0:29:22.120
<v Speaker 3>over year excuse me, in the final quarter of twenty

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.320
<v Speaker 3>twenty five, and what he sees with iPhone revenue growing

0:29:25.360 --> 0:29:28.360
<v Speaker 3>double digits. I mean, that sounds pretty optimistic.

0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:30.200
<v Speaker 6>We can explain this.

0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:34.280
<v Speaker 5>The orders for the iPhone seventeen started on September twelfth,

0:29:34.520 --> 0:29:38.120
<v Speaker 5>The iPhone seventeen went on sales September nineteenth. They've just

0:29:38.200 --> 0:29:41.600
<v Speaker 5>reported a quarter that ended on September twenty seventh, so

0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:44.880
<v Speaker 5>they had eight days of data for the iPhone seventeen generation.

0:29:45.560 --> 0:29:48.560
<v Speaker 5>There is another outlet that clearly has had a briefing

0:29:48.640 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 5>or an interview, and the CFO has guided very clearly

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 5>on the trajectory of the iPhone seventeen and its sales

0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:56.640
<v Speaker 5>into the December quarter.

0:29:57.240 --> 0:29:59.520
<v Speaker 6>And that's kind of what always happens.

0:30:00.120 --> 0:30:06.600
<v Speaker 5>It doesn't explain necessarily or explicitly the Greater China numbers though,

0:30:06.800 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 5>And you know Mark, I think he forgive me.

0:30:10.120 --> 0:30:12.480
<v Speaker 6>I was covering for him. I was doing the blog

0:30:12.520 --> 0:30:14.760
<v Speaker 6>and he was running on the If.

0:30:14.640 --> 0:30:17.400
<v Speaker 7>You said Apples now up three percent, markets are weird.

0:30:18.200 --> 0:30:21.040
<v Speaker 5>Markets are weird. But that's before I read the ft.

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 5>But the on Greater China, Yes, the iPhone seventeen air

0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:30.160
<v Speaker 5>did not go on sale because of the regulatory restriction

0:30:30.480 --> 0:30:33.800
<v Speaker 5>on a handset that has USUM design. Does that explain

0:30:33.880 --> 0:30:37.080
<v Speaker 5>the full thing really, because you know, the most bullish

0:30:37.200 --> 0:30:39.960
<v Speaker 5>estimates for Greater China saw revenue from that country of

0:30:40.040 --> 0:30:43.440
<v Speaker 5>seventeen billion dollars. You know, that's quite a gap to

0:30:43.440 --> 0:30:45.920
<v Speaker 5>where they landed, and so maybe it's something else. But

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:49.720
<v Speaker 5>right now, I think we've discussed this with this program before.

0:30:49.800 --> 0:30:52.880
<v Speaker 5>Right it applies to both Tesla and Apple. If you're

0:30:52.880 --> 0:30:55.600
<v Speaker 5>a consumer and you're faced with the choice of buying

0:30:55.640 --> 0:30:59.479
<v Speaker 5>a domestic product or an American product, there is a

0:30:59.520 --> 0:31:01.800
<v Speaker 5>pressure and it's part of the calculus you have to make.

0:31:02.000 --> 0:31:03.200
<v Speaker 5>We know that from the data.

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:07.320
<v Speaker 2>We're speaking with Ed Ludlow. He's the cost of Bloomberg

0:31:07.360 --> 0:31:10.000
<v Speaker 2>Tech on Bloomberg TV eleven o'clock Wall Street Time. I

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:12.800
<v Speaker 2>want to bring in back Jay Goldberg, Senior analysts Semiconductors

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:15.600
<v Speaker 2>and Electronics with Seaport Research Partners. You's had some time

0:31:16.000 --> 0:31:17.920
<v Speaker 2>to take a breath and look at some of these numbers,

0:31:17.920 --> 0:31:20.400
<v Speaker 2>and I'm wondering if you've also had a time, Jay

0:31:20.440 --> 0:31:23.080
<v Speaker 2>to see that shares now up close to three point

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:25.600
<v Speaker 2>three percent or three point four percent. In the after hours,

0:31:25.600 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 2>apparently executives, including the company's CFO, telling the Wall Street

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:34.600
<v Speaker 2>Journal that total company revenue will increase ten to twelve

0:31:34.640 --> 0:31:38.040
<v Speaker 2>percent in the holiday quarter. Was that above your estimate?

0:31:38.120 --> 0:31:40.360
<v Speaker 2>Was that above your expectations?

0:31:40.400 --> 0:31:43.560
<v Speaker 6>Meaningfully above my estimate? That's pretty encouraging.

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:46.400
<v Speaker 2>Why is that so encouraging to you? And why was

0:31:46.440 --> 0:31:48.000
<v Speaker 2>it so far? Why is that so far? But why

0:31:48.040 --> 0:31:49.440
<v Speaker 2>is that meaningfully above your estimate?

0:31:50.600 --> 0:31:53.800
<v Speaker 10>I think it comes down as simple as the seventeen

0:31:53.920 --> 0:31:56.719
<v Speaker 10>and the air are good phones. And as much as

0:31:56.760 --> 0:31:59.000
<v Speaker 10>we want to talk about services and AI and all that,

0:31:59.440 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 10>sometimes just as simple as make good phone number go up.

0:32:03.160 --> 0:32:05.200
<v Speaker 2>You make it sound so easy, make it.

0:32:05.520 --> 0:32:08.600
<v Speaker 6>There's a take up that we just marched that we

0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 6>make up estimates.

0:32:09.400 --> 0:32:13.560
<v Speaker 2>So you know, I think it's that easy to tell

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:15.800
<v Speaker 2>if you said that. No, But but in all seriousness,

0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:18.440
<v Speaker 2>the seventeen, so you see that you see the seventeen.

0:32:20.640 --> 0:32:22.200
<v Speaker 2>You see the eighteen, or I don't want to call

0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:23.600
<v Speaker 2>it the eighteen, but you see the foldable being a

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:26.960
<v Speaker 2>much much bigger opportunity. That's where the supercycle, in your view,

0:32:27.000 --> 0:32:28.200
<v Speaker 2>is going to come from.

0:32:28.560 --> 0:32:30.320
<v Speaker 6>I don't know. I get a little wary of using

0:32:30.360 --> 0:32:31.320
<v Speaker 6>the term supercycle.

0:32:31.720 --> 0:32:34.600
<v Speaker 10>I'm not sure in today's market, where everybody has a

0:32:34.640 --> 0:32:37.880
<v Speaker 10>cell phone that we and they cost one thousand plus dollars,

0:32:38.120 --> 0:32:40.160
<v Speaker 10>I don't know if we're going to have supercycles anymore.

0:32:40.360 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 10>I do know there's a pretty substantial installed base of

0:32:42.600 --> 0:32:44.840
<v Speaker 10>older phones like fifteens and fourteens.

0:32:44.840 --> 0:32:47.800
<v Speaker 6>Even those people are probably going to look to upgrade.

0:32:48.520 --> 0:32:50.280
<v Speaker 10>You made a point earlier that Apple's always a little

0:32:50.280 --> 0:32:51.840
<v Speaker 10>bit late to the game and some of these developments.

0:32:51.840 --> 0:32:53.120
<v Speaker 10>And I think one of the one of the big

0:32:53.120 --> 0:32:56.520
<v Speaker 10>ones they missed a few years ago was large large screens. Right,

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:58.360
<v Speaker 10>This is a big debate. They didn't want to make

0:32:58.400 --> 0:32:59.719
<v Speaker 10>it too big, and then they made them and they

0:32:59.720 --> 0:33:01.960
<v Speaker 10>did really well. It took them three years to get

0:33:02.000 --> 0:33:03.680
<v Speaker 10>in that market, and I think we're going to see

0:33:03.680 --> 0:33:06.480
<v Speaker 10>the same thing with foldables. That's gonna be a big category,

0:33:06.520 --> 0:33:08.720
<v Speaker 10>but that's going to be an expensive phone and in

0:33:08.760 --> 0:33:11.280
<v Speaker 10>the interim, there's a really good alternative on the market

0:33:11.360 --> 0:33:13.840
<v Speaker 10>right now for you know, and you and I know

0:33:13.880 --> 0:33:16.600
<v Speaker 10>about the foldable because I talk about this stuff all day.

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:20.120
<v Speaker 10>But I think the average consumer isn't you know, isn't

0:33:20.120 --> 0:33:22.560
<v Speaker 10>that forward looking, and it's pretty happy with what's in

0:33:22.560 --> 0:33:25.440
<v Speaker 10>front of them now, and that's that's that's compelling a

0:33:25.560 --> 0:33:27.520
<v Speaker 10>compelling buying proposition for them.

0:33:28.840 --> 0:33:31.320
<v Speaker 7>So Ed loud Low, come on back in here.

0:33:31.400 --> 0:33:33.720
<v Speaker 3>I mean, everybody's kind of keying in on this outlook,

0:33:33.720 --> 0:33:37.760
<v Speaker 3>and obviously with good reason. Again, I kind of think

0:33:38.120 --> 0:33:41.920
<v Speaker 3>to the call with investors and analysts, I mean, are

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:44.000
<v Speaker 3>people going to be asking all about that outlook?

0:33:44.040 --> 0:33:46.960
<v Speaker 7>Is that what's at this point got to be the

0:33:46.960 --> 0:33:47.600
<v Speaker 7>focal point?

0:33:48.400 --> 0:33:51.160
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean I compared and contrast with law school,

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:53.640
<v Speaker 5>so we were still asking about pool forward and the

0:33:53.720 --> 0:33:58.600
<v Speaker 5>tariff effects of consumers going out buying handsets. Again, that

0:33:58.800 --> 0:34:01.760
<v Speaker 5>is not the same and does and explain behavior in

0:34:01.840 --> 0:34:05.800
<v Speaker 5>sales data where the quarter they just reported was just

0:34:06.040 --> 0:34:09.200
<v Speaker 5>eight real days of sales for the September quarter, and

0:34:09.239 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 5>they're telling us via interviews with the FTN the Wall

0:34:12.200 --> 0:34:15.680
<v Speaker 5>Street Journal that they're looking at ten percent to twelve percent.

0:34:15.760 --> 0:34:19.840
<v Speaker 5>I think is the range increase in sales in the

0:34:19.880 --> 0:34:20.760
<v Speaker 5>holiday quarter.

0:34:21.360 --> 0:34:22.480
<v Speaker 6>Where were those sales?

0:34:23.360 --> 0:34:26.440
<v Speaker 5>Also, like a lot of the optimism and maybe your

0:34:26.440 --> 0:34:27.880
<v Speaker 5>guests can weigh on on this, but a lot of

0:34:27.880 --> 0:34:30.680
<v Speaker 5>the optimism about the third party or soft data for

0:34:30.719 --> 0:34:37.359
<v Speaker 5>the iPhone seventeen generation was about asps and mix. So yes, okay,

0:34:37.400 --> 0:34:39.880
<v Speaker 5>the iPhone seventeen Air wasn't on sale in China, but

0:34:39.920 --> 0:34:41.879
<v Speaker 5>there was a lot of evidence that people were going

0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:45.160
<v Speaker 5>for the Pro and Pro Max, the more expensive rather

0:34:45.239 --> 0:34:48.839
<v Speaker 5>than the base version, which is really good for Apple's print, right,

0:34:48.840 --> 0:34:51.560
<v Speaker 5>and it's financials, But we don't have anything to go

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:55.840
<v Speaker 5>on in the statement to support that, you know, generally speaking,

0:34:56.160 --> 0:34:59.960
<v Speaker 5>because they didn't in real terms raise prices or they

0:35:00.000 --> 0:35:03.320
<v Speaker 5>didn't put higher price points on the iPhone seventeen necessarily.

0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:05.960
<v Speaker 5>One way to get around that is to say, look,

0:35:06.000 --> 0:35:08.680
<v Speaker 5>how great the pro version of this is. It's really great,

0:35:08.840 --> 0:35:11.520
<v Speaker 5>it's just a lot more expensive, and then encourage people

0:35:11.520 --> 0:35:14.440
<v Speaker 5>to buy that. You know, that's an interesting story to

0:35:14.480 --> 0:35:15.239
<v Speaker 5>dig into.

0:35:15.200 --> 0:35:17.759
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, Jay, dig into it for us. Anything on that.

0:35:19.200 --> 0:35:21.239
<v Speaker 10>So one of the things I'm sort of teasing through

0:35:21.239 --> 0:35:24.400
<v Speaker 10>with my numbers is earnings are much higher than expected, right,

0:35:24.400 --> 0:35:26.520
<v Speaker 10>And I mentioned earlier gross margins were better than expected,

0:35:26.560 --> 0:35:28.840
<v Speaker 10>and I think some of that is Apple has effectively

0:35:28.880 --> 0:35:30.840
<v Speaker 10>put a price increase in place.

0:35:31.880 --> 0:35:33.279
<v Speaker 6>You can't necessarily see it.

0:35:33.320 --> 0:35:37.360
<v Speaker 10>Obviously, the cheapest phone is still pretty expensive, but the

0:35:37.400 --> 0:35:39.640
<v Speaker 10>way they segment the market and the way they put

0:35:39.800 --> 0:35:42.920
<v Speaker 10>the seventeen, they price the pro the air and the seventeen,

0:35:43.960 --> 0:35:46.360
<v Speaker 10>they've effectively raised prices one hundred dollars this quarter or

0:35:46.400 --> 0:35:49.040
<v Speaker 10>this this cycle. And I think that that has helped

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:52.600
<v Speaker 10>a lot, right, And in terms of what I was

0:35:52.600 --> 0:35:54.960
<v Speaker 10>saying about China, the consumer there, I think consumers there

0:35:55.000 --> 0:35:59.080
<v Speaker 10>are actually very very trend conscious, especially the iPhone consumer there.

0:35:59.440 --> 0:36:02.239
<v Speaker 10>They have a pretty good idea of what's available and

0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:03.439
<v Speaker 10>may they may wait.

0:36:03.480 --> 0:36:05.880
<v Speaker 2>As a result, Jay explain that the segmentation when it

0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:08.440
<v Speaker 2>comes to pricing, though consumers might not see it, analysts

0:36:08.480 --> 0:36:10.000
<v Speaker 2>certainly know. And how did how did Apple do it

0:36:10.040 --> 0:36:12.640
<v Speaker 2>this time around? Oftentimes they do it with the memory

0:36:12.640 --> 0:36:13.360
<v Speaker 2>with storage.

0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:16.560
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, so the lowest, the cheapest phone there is one

0:36:16.600 --> 0:36:18.720
<v Speaker 10>hundred dollars more than it used to be effected. Okay,

0:36:19.480 --> 0:36:21.120
<v Speaker 10>I don't like for like basis that you know that

0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:23.680
<v Speaker 10>they didn't actually raise prices of the old phones, but

0:36:23.719 --> 0:36:25.279
<v Speaker 10>they didn't lower them as much as they usually do.

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:26.799
<v Speaker 10>In the price of the new one one hundred bucks

0:36:26.880 --> 0:36:28.799
<v Speaker 10>higher than the old lower level.

0:36:29.080 --> 0:36:29.960
<v Speaker 2>That's the segmentation.

0:36:30.360 --> 0:36:32.960
<v Speaker 3>Hey, I just want you to come back in with

0:36:33.040 --> 0:36:36.680
<v Speaker 3>a final thought, certainly on these Apple results.

0:36:37.680 --> 0:36:41.080
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think all of the long term questions still linger.

0:36:42.560 --> 0:36:45.759
<v Speaker 5>You know, Apple continues to get a lot of criticism

0:36:46.160 --> 0:36:49.600
<v Speaker 5>for innovation. You know, this is a really basic argument,

0:36:49.640 --> 0:36:52.160
<v Speaker 5>but on Bloomberg Tech every single day, and like all

0:36:52.160 --> 0:36:54.440
<v Speaker 5>of the investors I speak to on the phone, they

0:36:54.600 --> 0:36:59.440
<v Speaker 5>make the very simple argument that why is it that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta,

0:37:00.160 --> 0:37:03.799
<v Speaker 5>Microsoft have capital expenditures nearer to one hundred billion per

0:37:03.800 --> 0:37:07.000
<v Speaker 5>annum and Apple has ten? When is Apple going to

0:37:07.040 --> 0:37:12.280
<v Speaker 5>take some risk and throw crazy money behind either talent

0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:16.400
<v Speaker 5>or literal capital expenditures to do something like that. Apple

0:37:16.440 --> 0:37:19.600
<v Speaker 5>doesn't do that necessarily, But the world is a different place,

0:37:19.680 --> 0:37:22.880
<v Speaker 5>and you know, maybe it's pine the sky thinking that

0:37:22.920 --> 0:37:24.400
<v Speaker 5>a cell side analyst on the call is going to

0:37:24.440 --> 0:37:27.040
<v Speaker 5>ask that, But they might, and then it might get

0:37:27.040 --> 0:37:29.560
<v Speaker 5>an answer, and then you know, that's kind of where

0:37:29.560 --> 0:37:31.120
<v Speaker 5>we're at in this cycle.

0:37:31.600 --> 0:37:33.960
<v Speaker 7>All right, gentlemen, I'm going to leave it on that note.

0:37:34.000 --> 0:37:37.840
<v Speaker 3>Jay Goldberg, Senior analyst semiconductors and Electronics at Seaport Research,

0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:41.080
<v Speaker 3>joining us from San Francisco. Thank you so much, Ed Ludlow.

0:37:42.000 --> 0:37:44.200
<v Speaker 3>Be sure to catch all of his coverage on b

0:37:44.360 --> 0:37:47.320
<v Speaker 3>Tech tomorrow at eleven am Wall Street Time. He is

0:37:47.400 --> 0:37:50.320
<v Speaker 3>co host of b Tech on BTV every Monday through Friday.

0:37:50.320 --> 0:37:52.800
<v Speaker 3>He's too out there in San Francisco at the Bloomberg

0:37:52.960 --> 0:37:53.640
<v Speaker 3>News Bureau.

0:37:55.200 --> 0:37:58.000
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:37:58.080 --> 0:37:58.960
<v Speaker 2>up after this.

0:38:02.920 --> 0:38:06.799
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch

0:38:06.880 --> 0:38:10.040
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five Eastering. Listen

0:38:10.120 --> 0:38:13.720
<v Speaker 1>on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:38:13.840 --> 0:38:16.000
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:38:17.000 --> 0:38:18.879
<v Speaker 2>So much happening when it comes to Big Farmer today,

0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:21.080
<v Speaker 2>it's not just about the big tech shares. The clinical

0:38:21.080 --> 0:38:24.719
<v Speaker 2>stage biotech company met Sarah, surging more than twenty five

0:38:24.760 --> 0:38:27.560
<v Speaker 2>percent at one point today. This after Novo Nordisk made

0:38:27.560 --> 0:38:30.680
<v Speaker 2>an unsolicited bid for it smarking a heated battle with

0:38:30.760 --> 0:38:33.080
<v Speaker 2>Pfizer to get their hands on weight loss treatments that

0:38:33.120 --> 0:38:36.160
<v Speaker 2>both drugmakers want in order to regain lost ground in

0:38:36.200 --> 0:38:39.759
<v Speaker 2>the booming market. Speaking of that, Eli Lilly raised its

0:38:39.840 --> 0:38:43.120
<v Speaker 2>full year guidance as revenue from its blockbuster weight loss

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:46.520
<v Speaker 2>and diabetes drugs. Merk also shaved the top end of

0:38:46.520 --> 0:38:49.720
<v Speaker 2>its twenty twenty five revenue guidance, now expect sales between

0:38:49.760 --> 0:38:52.560
<v Speaker 2>sixty four and a half and sixty five billion dollars.

0:38:52.600 --> 0:38:54.799
<v Speaker 2>So that's just some of what's happening when it comes

0:38:54.840 --> 0:38:57.560
<v Speaker 2>to big pharma. For more, we're joined by Jessica Nicks.

0:38:57.680 --> 0:39:00.000
<v Speaker 2>She's a Bloomberg News health reporter. She joins us here

0:39:00.040 --> 0:39:03.399
<v Speaker 2>in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. I want to start

0:39:03.440 --> 0:39:06.319
<v Speaker 2>with this fight for Metsarah. Yeah, not every day we

0:39:06.360 --> 0:39:10.480
<v Speaker 2>see sort of like a company being the bell of

0:39:10.520 --> 0:39:11.160
<v Speaker 2>the ball like this.

0:39:11.560 --> 0:39:14.840
<v Speaker 8>Oh, it has been quite the drama for a Thursday,

0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:17.160
<v Speaker 8>and quite a lot of news out of big pharma today.

0:39:17.440 --> 0:39:21.520
<v Speaker 8>So overnight, Nova Nordisk, the Danish GLP one drug maker,

0:39:21.600 --> 0:39:25.280
<v Speaker 8>has made a bid for this biotech company, met Sarah,

0:39:25.360 --> 0:39:28.640
<v Speaker 8>trying to go after its new GLP one drug. Interestingly,

0:39:28.840 --> 0:39:31.480
<v Speaker 8>Pfizer made a bid for it back in September for

0:39:31.520 --> 0:39:34.680
<v Speaker 8>about five billion. Things were, you know, clean cut, with

0:39:34.760 --> 0:39:37.440
<v Speaker 8>that deal ready to go. We thought Nova's come in

0:39:37.440 --> 0:39:40.680
<v Speaker 8>with this unsolicited bit. Pfizer's been trying to get in

0:39:40.719 --> 0:39:43.640
<v Speaker 8>on this GLP one and weight loss drug action. It's

0:39:43.680 --> 0:39:46.960
<v Speaker 8>a market that's expected to grow by one hundred billion

0:39:47.040 --> 0:39:48.040
<v Speaker 8>by twenty thirty.

0:39:48.080 --> 0:39:48.800
<v Speaker 6>It's huge.

0:39:48.840 --> 0:39:51.840
<v Speaker 8>It's the thing right now is these weight loss drugs,

0:39:51.840 --> 0:39:54.000
<v Speaker 8>and so Pfizer's trying to get in and now Nova's

0:39:54.000 --> 0:39:55.520
<v Speaker 8>sweeping out under from them.

0:39:55.600 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 7>Wait, so we're mind. So Piser doesn't have anything yet in.

0:39:58.080 --> 0:40:00.000
<v Speaker 8>This Piser does not have anything in the weight life

0:40:00.200 --> 0:40:02.719
<v Speaker 8>drug space. They've tried and then they failed with their

0:40:02.760 --> 0:40:04.760
<v Speaker 8>first drug, and so they were looking at that. Sarah

0:40:04.920 --> 0:40:08.839
<v Speaker 8>is their way in on this fight. But Novo interestingly

0:40:09.040 --> 0:40:11.480
<v Speaker 8>is also kind of losing in the weight loss drug fight.

0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:13.440
<v Speaker 8>Just because your first to market doesn't mean you're going.

0:40:13.440 --> 0:40:13.759
<v Speaker 6>To be why.

0:40:14.880 --> 0:40:16.640
<v Speaker 2>I mean, the last couple of years there were stories

0:40:16.640 --> 0:40:19.160
<v Speaker 2>about how important this company was to the Danish economy.

0:40:20.160 --> 0:40:23.080
<v Speaker 2>I mean, is it just because of Eli, Yes, it is.

0:40:23.160 --> 0:40:26.000
<v Speaker 8>It's because Eli Lilly has come in. Guns are blazing

0:40:26.120 --> 0:40:28.880
<v Speaker 8>and storming through the weight loss drug space. So Novo

0:40:28.960 --> 0:40:33.000
<v Speaker 8>started with ozembic. Obviously everyone knows ozempic. Now Eli Lilly

0:40:33.040 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 8>has now come in with that same class of GLP

0:40:35.120 --> 0:40:39.080
<v Speaker 8>one drugs and their zepbound prescriptions are rising even today

0:40:39.120 --> 0:40:42.400
<v Speaker 8>and their earnings guidance, they said that those prescriptions were increasing.

0:40:43.360 --> 0:40:46.840
<v Speaker 8>So everyone's going towards Eli Lilly right now instead of

0:40:46.840 --> 0:40:49.280
<v Speaker 8>Novo Nordoice. Nova has been falling behind.

0:40:49.800 --> 0:40:52.560
<v Speaker 3>We've talked with our Madison Mueller Lumber News, who's covered

0:40:52.560 --> 0:40:55.319
<v Speaker 3>this space kind of from the beginning here too, and

0:40:55.360 --> 0:40:57.839
<v Speaker 3>you are covering it as well. I'm always like, well,

0:40:57.840 --> 0:41:01.080
<v Speaker 3>what's the difference. I do know people who have taken

0:41:01.160 --> 0:41:05.840
<v Speaker 3>the drug and gone from a zepic to another brand

0:41:06.040 --> 0:41:09.680
<v Speaker 3>or another name drugs because they're similar, but they're not

0:41:09.840 --> 0:41:13.080
<v Speaker 3>all the same. You do see patients. Is Eli Lily's

0:41:13.160 --> 0:41:16.000
<v Speaker 3>offerings better, Is zepbound better, Is Munjaro better.

0:41:16.480 --> 0:41:19.040
<v Speaker 8>It's just a matter of what works better for your body.

0:41:19.080 --> 0:41:23.640
<v Speaker 8>So Eli Lilly works with an ingredient called trizeppetide, Novo

0:41:23.680 --> 0:41:25.880
<v Speaker 8>Nordis works with semaglue tide, and so it's just a

0:41:25.920 --> 0:41:28.280
<v Speaker 8>matter of what works better for the patient. But Eli

0:41:28.320 --> 0:41:30.719
<v Speaker 8>Lilly has been able to really market and go to

0:41:30.960 --> 0:41:34.280
<v Speaker 8>physicians with these drugs as well and move ahead. Novo

0:41:34.360 --> 0:41:36.879
<v Speaker 8>interestingly also has a new CEO who's trying to shake

0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:39.160
<v Speaker 8>things up to be able to bring Novo up to

0:41:39.400 --> 0:41:40.560
<v Speaker 8>the forefront. Of this spike.

0:41:40.640 --> 0:41:43.000
<v Speaker 7>It's own the space like it felt like right tim

0:41:44.480 --> 0:41:48.160
<v Speaker 7>out of the block. What's the special sauce that matsarah has?

0:41:48.200 --> 0:41:48.279
<v Speaker 10>Like?

0:41:48.320 --> 0:41:50.480
<v Speaker 7>What is it? What is it that they are offering up?

0:41:50.800 --> 0:41:53.279
<v Speaker 8>They are offering a new type of drug that's also

0:41:53.320 --> 0:41:56.440
<v Speaker 8>an injectable, but it's targeting a different hormones. The hormone

0:41:56.440 --> 0:41:58.600
<v Speaker 8>that's targeted right now with the current weight loss drugs

0:41:58.640 --> 0:42:01.080
<v Speaker 8>is something called a GLP one. You hear that term

0:42:01.080 --> 0:42:02.960
<v Speaker 8>a lot when we talk about way Moss drugs. With

0:42:03.120 --> 0:42:06.160
<v Speaker 8>Metsarah's new drug, it's a hormone called ammelin, and it

0:42:06.200 --> 0:42:09.360
<v Speaker 8>also includes less side effects when you take their drugs,

0:42:09.400 --> 0:42:11.719
<v Speaker 8>You're not going to be getting those nasty like nausea,

0:42:12.360 --> 0:42:14.799
<v Speaker 8>vomiting side effects that you get with a GLP one.

0:42:15.080 --> 0:42:17.080
<v Speaker 8>So it sounds like a better deal.

0:42:17.719 --> 0:42:18.319
<v Speaker 7>Why would I.

0:42:18.400 --> 0:42:20.840
<v Speaker 2>Take anytime you can avoid vomiting?

0:42:20.920 --> 0:42:22.200
<v Speaker 6>I think is right exactly.

0:42:22.440 --> 0:42:24.759
<v Speaker 2>You said something that's interesting, which is still it's an injectable.

0:42:24.800 --> 0:42:26.520
<v Speaker 2>And as mat sim Miller reminds us all the time,

0:42:26.719 --> 0:42:28.439
<v Speaker 2>the real golden goose here is the pill.

0:42:28.520 --> 0:42:30.759
<v Speaker 8>It is the pill, and so Eli Lilly has been

0:42:30.760 --> 0:42:33.320
<v Speaker 8>working on its pill. It is a head in marketing

0:42:33.880 --> 0:42:36.359
<v Speaker 8>and in development for its pill, and they're saying, you know,

0:42:36.360 --> 0:42:37.640
<v Speaker 8>by the end of the year they're going to go

0:42:37.680 --> 0:42:39.439
<v Speaker 8>to the FDA for approval.

0:42:39.160 --> 0:42:40.800
<v Speaker 2>And this would be a GLP one pill.

0:42:41.040 --> 0:42:42.359
<v Speaker 8>This would be a GLP one pill.

0:42:42.400 --> 0:42:44.080
<v Speaker 2>Correct, Well, how do you make a pill? I mean,

0:42:44.120 --> 0:42:46.160
<v Speaker 2>we're getting into the nitty gritty a little bit here,

0:42:46.200 --> 0:42:49.200
<v Speaker 2>but how can you do something that is traditionally an

0:42:49.239 --> 0:42:51.200
<v Speaker 2>injectable and make it pill form and have it still

0:42:51.200 --> 0:42:51.800
<v Speaker 2>be effective.

0:42:51.960 --> 0:42:54.320
<v Speaker 8>That is a really great question, and people much smarter

0:42:54.440 --> 0:42:54.799
<v Speaker 8>than me.

0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:57.480
<v Speaker 2>Are well, but it's got to be really tough because

0:42:57.600 --> 0:42:59.680
<v Speaker 2>if it were easy, then Nova would have this. They

0:42:59.680 --> 0:43:01.960
<v Speaker 2>would just put this in pill form. And I think

0:43:02.000 --> 0:43:04.799
<v Speaker 2>that and when I heard you talk about Metsara and

0:43:05.080 --> 0:43:08.359
<v Speaker 2>this idea of it it going after something different than

0:43:08.360 --> 0:43:10.719
<v Speaker 2>a GLP one, I was surprised that it was still

0:43:11.000 --> 0:43:13.480
<v Speaker 2>in injectable because I think that would hold a lot

0:43:13.520 --> 0:43:15.520
<v Speaker 2>of people back from actually using a drug.

0:43:15.600 --> 0:43:17.239
<v Speaker 8>And it does. And that's part of the reason why

0:43:17.280 --> 0:43:19.359
<v Speaker 8>these companies want to go into the pill space, because

0:43:19.360 --> 0:43:21.560
<v Speaker 8>a lot of people who are interested in taking a

0:43:21.560 --> 0:43:23.839
<v Speaker 8>weight loss drug for whatever reason. As we're saying, it's

0:43:23.880 --> 0:43:27.239
<v Speaker 8>it's tackling a lot of different problems that people are

0:43:27.239 --> 0:43:28.800
<v Speaker 8>having sleep at in me a heart disease.

0:43:29.080 --> 0:43:29.680
<v Speaker 6>What have you?

0:43:29.960 --> 0:43:32.480
<v Speaker 8>Pills now are a new way that people would be

0:43:32.560 --> 0:43:34.160
<v Speaker 8>wanting to get into on this space.

0:43:34.000 --> 0:43:34.799
<v Speaker 7>So let's just talk.

0:43:35.560 --> 0:43:39.680
<v Speaker 3>Novo shares are down about two point three percent. Pfizer's

0:43:39.840 --> 0:43:41.840
<v Speaker 3>up about one third of one percent. It was up

0:43:41.880 --> 0:43:44.280
<v Speaker 3>as much as one point seven percent earlier in this session.

0:43:44.840 --> 0:43:47.880
<v Speaker 3>And then of course you've got Mitsarah, which is just

0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:50.560
<v Speaker 3>off and running like crazy, that stock which is the

0:43:50.600 --> 0:43:52.719
<v Speaker 3>target twenty two percent, yeah.

0:43:52.440 --> 0:43:54.480
<v Speaker 7>And continuing to hold on to that. Who has more

0:43:54.520 --> 0:43:54.839
<v Speaker 7>to lose?

0:43:54.880 --> 0:43:58.040
<v Speaker 3>It sounds like Pfizer because they just they're not in

0:43:58.040 --> 0:43:58.719
<v Speaker 3>this game yet.

0:43:58.760 --> 0:44:02.160
<v Speaker 8>Pfizer definitely has a little more to lose here. Pfiser

0:44:02.239 --> 0:44:04.680
<v Speaker 8>is not in on the game right now. They've been

0:44:04.680 --> 0:44:07.720
<v Speaker 8>losing since you know, COVID. They were big during COVID,

0:44:07.760 --> 0:44:09.880
<v Speaker 8>they made the shots, they really turned things around for

0:44:09.920 --> 0:44:12.440
<v Speaker 8>the company there. They've been looking for their next big

0:44:12.480 --> 0:44:14.480
<v Speaker 8>thing and they thought this was it. So they do

0:44:14.520 --> 0:44:16.400
<v Speaker 8>have a little bit more to lose. But interestingly, the

0:44:16.400 --> 0:44:20.520
<v Speaker 8>shares are mostly unchanged today. Pfizer does have four days

0:44:20.560 --> 0:44:22.799
<v Speaker 8>to respond to this bid to see if they can

0:44:22.840 --> 0:44:25.359
<v Speaker 8>come in a little bit higher and start this this

0:44:25.400 --> 0:44:27.839
<v Speaker 8>bidding war, and who knows. Pfizer also made a deal

0:44:27.880 --> 0:44:30.200
<v Speaker 8>with the Trump administration earlier this year, so they might

0:44:30.200 --> 0:44:32.080
<v Speaker 8>be trying to use some of their their White House

0:44:32.080 --> 0:44:36.719
<v Speaker 8>connects because they claimed that this bid is against antitrust

0:44:36.880 --> 0:44:37.640
<v Speaker 8>law in the US.

0:44:37.680 --> 0:44:38.520
<v Speaker 7>I guess what I would say.

0:44:38.560 --> 0:44:41.680
<v Speaker 3>Right now, the market cap is about six point seven billion,

0:44:41.880 --> 0:44:43.440
<v Speaker 3>So I don't know if that's a great gauge of

0:44:43.520 --> 0:44:45.919
<v Speaker 3>kind of where investors think this.

0:44:45.880 --> 0:44:49.640
<v Speaker 7>Cuah, yeah, So in other words.

0:44:49.920 --> 0:44:52.359
<v Speaker 2>Which is up now twenty three percent? As Yeah?

0:44:52.440 --> 0:44:55.279
<v Speaker 3>I mean, if Novo's offered to you know, Sis a

0:44:55.360 --> 0:44:56.400
<v Speaker 3>half billion dollars deal.

0:44:56.320 --> 0:44:57.640
<v Speaker 2>And they think it's then they think there's going to

0:44:57.640 --> 0:44:59.839
<v Speaker 2>be in someone else coming in. I'll bring potentially more.

0:45:00.000 --> 0:45:01.880
<v Speaker 3>It's just a little bit higher, right, Like, it doesn't

0:45:01.880 --> 0:45:03.680
<v Speaker 3>feel like it's off and running that they think there

0:45:03.719 --> 0:45:05.600
<v Speaker 3>could be even somebody else coming in.

0:45:06.120 --> 0:45:08.000
<v Speaker 7>It is kind of fascinating.

0:45:08.080 --> 0:45:10.680
<v Speaker 3>The market for GLP ones or this class of drugs,

0:45:10.719 --> 0:45:15.160
<v Speaker 3>even if the underlying agent is changing, it just continues

0:45:15.200 --> 0:45:15.879
<v Speaker 3>to grow and grow.

0:45:16.080 --> 0:45:18.560
<v Speaker 8>It completely continues to grow and grow. We expect by

0:45:18.960 --> 0:45:21.880
<v Speaker 8>twenty thirty that the market's going to reach one hundred billion.

0:45:22.040 --> 0:45:22.880
<v Speaker 7>Where are we today?

0:45:23.200 --> 0:45:23.359
<v Speaker 10>Oh?

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:25.000
<v Speaker 8>That is a great question. I don't know where we

0:45:25.040 --> 0:45:27.480
<v Speaker 8>are at today, but I mean it's only going to

0:45:27.520 --> 0:45:29.320
<v Speaker 8>grow from here. It is the drug to watch.

0:45:29.560 --> 0:45:32.600
<v Speaker 2>So you said we're well. I said that we had

0:45:32.600 --> 0:45:34.480
<v Speaker 2>a big news, a lot of big news in big

0:45:34.520 --> 0:45:37.080
<v Speaker 2>pharma today. I mentioned Mark shaving the top end of

0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:39.839
<v Speaker 2>its twenty twenty five revenue guidance, literally raising its full

0:45:39.880 --> 0:45:42.200
<v Speaker 2>year guidance. We talked about that. What else does our

0:45:42.239 --> 0:45:44.520
<v Speaker 2>investing audience need to know about what we've heard thus far?

0:45:45.520 --> 0:45:48.239
<v Speaker 8>I think this deal is probably driving the news today.

0:45:48.280 --> 0:45:50.560
<v Speaker 8>Everyone's talking about it. We've got, you know, clocks on

0:45:50.600 --> 0:45:53.480
<v Speaker 8>for the four days. Interestingly, Albert Borla, the Pfizer CEO,

0:45:53.560 --> 0:45:55.279
<v Speaker 8>was supposed to have here at a conference here in

0:45:55.320 --> 0:45:59.040
<v Speaker 8>Manhattan with some other pharma executives, including a MERC CEO

0:45:59.120 --> 0:46:03.160
<v Speaker 8>as well, ended up pulling out of the conference, and

0:46:03.360 --> 0:46:06.160
<v Speaker 8>the chief scientific officer went on instead, and even said

0:46:06.360 --> 0:46:08.680
<v Speaker 8>at the conference that he only had an hour to

0:46:08.719 --> 0:46:09.880
<v Speaker 8>prepare before going on.

0:46:11.000 --> 0:46:12.359
<v Speaker 7>So we're still figuring out.

0:46:12.840 --> 0:46:15.800
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, he might have a little bit happening, but we

0:46:16.239 --> 0:46:19.680
<v Speaker 8>don't know for sure. So it is this deal that

0:46:19.719 --> 0:46:23.239
<v Speaker 8>is definitely going on today, not necessarily investor related, but

0:46:24.160 --> 0:46:28.240
<v Speaker 8>down in DC, the Surgeon General nominees. Hearing was supposed

0:46:28.280 --> 0:46:31.279
<v Speaker 8>to happen today with Casey Means, she ended up going

0:46:31.320 --> 0:46:33.960
<v Speaker 8>into labor and so they're having to delay the hearing.

0:46:34.520 --> 0:46:36.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, there's a lot going on in this space. It's

0:46:36.680 --> 0:46:41.040
<v Speaker 3>kind of wild, fascinating space. I really just it just

0:46:41.080 --> 0:46:43.520
<v Speaker 3>blows my mind. Jess Thank you so much. Jessica Nick's

0:46:43.719 --> 0:46:45.560
<v Speaker 3>health reporter at Bloomberg, and he's joining us in our

0:46:45.560 --> 0:46:47.320
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.

0:46:48.320 --> 0:46:51.120
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:46:51.160 --> 0:46:52.120
<v Speaker 2>up after this.

0:46:56.040 --> 0:46:59.799
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Catch

0:46:59.880 --> 0:47:02.640
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five e's during

0:47:02.840 --> 0:47:06.760
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0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:09.239
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:47:10.040 --> 0:47:13.760
<v Speaker 3>So let's get to that US China meeting earlier today

0:47:13.800 --> 0:47:17.000
<v Speaker 3>in South Korea between President Trump and President g deal.

0:47:17.200 --> 0:47:19.719
<v Speaker 3>No deal, how about that one year truce, that's what

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:22.680
<v Speaker 3>they're calling it. The two did meet on the sidelines

0:47:22.680 --> 0:47:26.480
<v Speaker 3>of the Apex summit, US cutting the fetanyl tariff, extending

0:47:26.480 --> 0:47:30.600
<v Speaker 3>the existing truth and reciprocal tariffs, China resuming soybean sales

0:47:30.600 --> 0:47:35.600
<v Speaker 3>and rare earth flows. But maybe just a stabilization of relationships.

0:47:35.640 --> 0:47:37.520
<v Speaker 3>Nothing more dramatic here, Tim, I don't know.

0:47:37.600 --> 0:47:39.640
<v Speaker 2>Let's ask Caroline Freud. She's dean of the UC San

0:47:39.719 --> 0:47:43.000
<v Speaker 2>Diego School of Global Policy and Strategies, former Senior Fellow

0:47:43.000 --> 0:47:46.040
<v Speaker 2>at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She's Global Director

0:47:46.080 --> 0:47:48.799
<v Speaker 2>of Trade, Investment and Competitiveness, formerly at the World Bank,

0:47:48.840 --> 0:47:51.520
<v Speaker 2>and earlier did time at the FED and the IMF.

0:47:51.600 --> 0:47:55.000
<v Speaker 2>She's out there in beautiful La Joya, California. So the

0:47:55.040 --> 0:47:58.000
<v Speaker 2>news today the year one year truce. Where does that

0:47:58.040 --> 0:48:00.520
<v Speaker 2>bring us in the context of the real relationship in

0:48:00.520 --> 0:48:03.480
<v Speaker 2>the between the US and China from a trading perspective

0:48:04.200 --> 0:48:07.440
<v Speaker 2>before President Trump took office for the second time. Is

0:48:07.480 --> 0:48:09.319
<v Speaker 2>it back to what it was then or is there

0:48:09.400 --> 0:48:12.960
<v Speaker 2>still tension from when he from from his policies early on.

0:48:14.040 --> 0:48:17.440
<v Speaker 12>Look, we have the world's top producer in the world's

0:48:17.600 --> 0:48:21.480
<v Speaker 12>top consumer meeting, and they both have market power in

0:48:21.520 --> 0:48:23.680
<v Speaker 12>their own way, and they need each other.

0:48:23.760 --> 0:48:24.640
<v Speaker 7>And that's what we saw.

0:48:24.680 --> 0:48:28.239
<v Speaker 12>It was effectively a game of chicken. Trump started it

0:48:28.480 --> 0:48:32.000
<v Speaker 12>and she stayed in the battle, and both just put

0:48:32.040 --> 0:48:35.920
<v Speaker 12>on the brakes. I think we're close to pre Liberation

0:48:36.160 --> 0:48:39.920
<v Speaker 12>day tariffs, not necessarily close to where Trump came in.

0:48:40.000 --> 0:48:42.520
<v Speaker 12>There are a few tweaks because we still have some

0:48:42.600 --> 0:48:47.719
<v Speaker 12>of the fentanyl tariffs. US firms are still facing this

0:48:48.040 --> 0:48:52.000
<v Speaker 12>licensing regime on magnets, so there's still some things that

0:48:52.040 --> 0:48:54.560
<v Speaker 12>are in place, but we're pretty close to the pre

0:48:55.640 --> 0:48:57.600
<v Speaker 12>Liberation Day tariffs, Caroline.

0:48:57.640 --> 0:48:59.800
<v Speaker 7>What is more significant what they did talk about?

0:49:00.080 --> 0:49:03.520
<v Speaker 3>What they didn't talk about, meaning Taiwan TikTok and videos,

0:49:03.560 --> 0:49:07.640
<v Speaker 3>high tech chips, those Blackwell chips, China Boying, buying oil

0:49:07.680 --> 0:49:10.839
<v Speaker 3>perhaps from Russia. Like, there's some really important issues out

0:49:10.880 --> 0:49:13.160
<v Speaker 3>there that felt like they were missing.

0:49:14.480 --> 0:49:17.800
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, and I think we're going to see that going forward.

0:49:18.000 --> 0:49:21.719
<v Speaker 12>There's going to be ambiguity on all of those difficult issues.

0:49:22.320 --> 0:49:27.400
<v Speaker 12>But I also think there's market discipline on the worst

0:49:27.480 --> 0:49:31.880
<v Speaker 12>case scenario of an escalating trade war. So they both

0:49:31.960 --> 0:49:35.880
<v Speaker 12>realized how much they need each other. The US market

0:49:36.040 --> 0:49:41.040
<v Speaker 12>is just impossible to replace. We account for fifteen percent

0:49:41.239 --> 0:49:44.799
<v Speaker 12>of total global imports. There just is no one else

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:48.719
<v Speaker 12>who's going to take that. China counts for the same

0:49:48.880 --> 0:49:53.439
<v Speaker 12>fifteen percent of global exports of goods. Who's gonna who?

0:49:53.600 --> 0:49:58.360
<v Speaker 12>We can't completely replace China, So the countries have settled

0:49:58.400 --> 0:50:02.680
<v Speaker 12>the deals that are in areas that really matter for

0:50:02.760 --> 0:50:05.880
<v Speaker 12>them right now, for their economies. But we're going to

0:50:05.960 --> 0:50:10.880
<v Speaker 12>see a lot of ambiguity on those much more complex issues.

0:50:11.000 --> 0:50:15.200
<v Speaker 3>So we're we played, we're citizens of both countries played,

0:50:15.200 --> 0:50:18.360
<v Speaker 3>we're investors, played like it did we kind of start

0:50:18.360 --> 0:50:20.880
<v Speaker 3>at point A and go through the whole alphabet and

0:50:20.880 --> 0:50:21.840
<v Speaker 3>then come back to point A.

0:50:23.200 --> 0:50:29.320
<v Speaker 12>Yes, I think Trump has tried the kind of bullying

0:50:29.400 --> 0:50:32.640
<v Speaker 12>technique and it's worked with everyone else. Early on it

0:50:32.680 --> 0:50:36.200
<v Speaker 12>looked like EU would also retaliate, but they're just too

0:50:36.320 --> 0:50:39.600
<v Speaker 12>dependent on the US for security and that's very important

0:50:39.680 --> 0:50:44.840
<v Speaker 12>right now, so they didn't. China is equivalent to the US,

0:50:44.920 --> 0:50:47.400
<v Speaker 12>and China said, no, we're not going to be bullied.

0:50:47.719 --> 0:50:53.440
<v Speaker 12>We also have things you absolutely need. And now there's

0:50:53.600 --> 0:50:55.880
<v Speaker 12>kind of a truce, and I think we'll see this

0:50:56.360 --> 0:51:00.759
<v Speaker 12>muddling along with market discipline on both sides. It'll hurt

0:51:00.800 --> 0:51:03.480
<v Speaker 12>the US too much to really do a lot more

0:51:03.480 --> 0:51:06.040
<v Speaker 12>on China. It'll hurt China too much to do a

0:51:06.040 --> 0:51:07.120
<v Speaker 12>lot more on the US.

0:51:08.239 --> 0:51:09.200
<v Speaker 7>But in this.

0:51:09.280 --> 0:51:12.960
<v Speaker 12>Period, in this period of truth, the most important thing

0:51:13.239 --> 0:51:16.040
<v Speaker 12>is that we work with our allies to develop secure

0:51:16.080 --> 0:51:17.360
<v Speaker 12>supply chains.

0:51:17.160 --> 0:51:19.919
<v Speaker 7>So we are not dependent on China.

0:51:20.000 --> 0:51:22.600
<v Speaker 12>For rare earth in the way we are now.

0:51:22.640 --> 0:51:27.120
<v Speaker 2>So those allies, including Australia, Canada, where else.

0:51:28.400 --> 0:51:29.360
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, exactly.

0:51:30.280 --> 0:51:35.320
<v Speaker 12>So the agreement with Australia is fantastic, and we should

0:51:35.480 --> 0:51:39.719
<v Speaker 12>be looking for more agreements like that. Latin America has

0:51:39.760 --> 0:51:43.399
<v Speaker 12>a lot of rare earth that could be explored that

0:51:43.480 --> 0:51:45.880
<v Speaker 12>we were part of the Western Hemisphere.

0:51:45.840 --> 0:51:49.560
<v Speaker 2>We have a complicated relationship with some Latin American countries currently.

0:51:50.880 --> 0:51:52.359
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, that's absolutely right.

0:51:52.520 --> 0:51:58.200
<v Speaker 12>And so the strategy we can't take on everyone at once,

0:51:58.760 --> 0:52:06.000
<v Speaker 12>and China is the biggest competitor, the biggest strategic threat

0:52:06.120 --> 0:52:10.640
<v Speaker 12>to the US, and we should be working to have

0:52:10.760 --> 0:52:17.520
<v Speaker 12>agreements with countries where we can both pull them out

0:52:17.640 --> 0:52:21.920
<v Speaker 12>of the China sphere and where they have things we

0:52:22.000 --> 0:52:22.520
<v Speaker 12>might need.

0:52:23.080 --> 0:52:25.400
<v Speaker 3>It couldn't possibly be thinking about the US shooting on

0:52:25.520 --> 0:52:26.440
<v Speaker 3>Venezuela and ships.

0:52:26.480 --> 0:52:30.080
<v Speaker 2>Can you make that I'm thinking about Yeah, yeah, I'm

0:52:30.080 --> 0:52:31.160
<v Speaker 2>absolutely thinking about it.

0:52:31.160 --> 0:52:32.400
<v Speaker 7>It's funny, not funny, right.

0:52:32.320 --> 0:52:35.440
<v Speaker 2>I'm also thinking about Argentina. Yeah, yeah, exactuated in a

0:52:35.480 --> 0:52:36.319
<v Speaker 2>different way, well.

0:52:36.280 --> 0:52:38.680
<v Speaker 3>Carolyn, And you know, I do think about the US's

0:52:38.719 --> 0:52:41.960
<v Speaker 3>position in the world at large, like we still have

0:52:42.320 --> 0:52:45.000
<v Speaker 3>trade agreements to be worked out with what used to

0:52:45.000 --> 0:52:47.799
<v Speaker 3>be a big friend of ours called Canada, and yet

0:52:47.840 --> 0:52:50.600
<v Speaker 3>that is still up in the air. What is how

0:52:50.600 --> 0:52:52.360
<v Speaker 3>does the rest of the world feel about the United

0:52:52.360 --> 0:52:56.279
<v Speaker 3>States right now against China? Because I do feel like

0:52:56.320 --> 0:53:00.520
<v Speaker 3>there is this thinking about China domination and so people

0:53:00.719 --> 0:53:03.040
<v Speaker 3>trying to do alliances to combat that.

0:53:03.600 --> 0:53:04.239
<v Speaker 7>So is the.

0:53:04.320 --> 0:53:06.960
<v Speaker 3>US as we see it, do that deal with Australia

0:53:07.000 --> 0:53:10.799
<v Speaker 3>and maybe reaching out realizing it can't do things alone.

0:53:11.320 --> 0:53:12.960
<v Speaker 7>Are things changing a little bit in terms of the

0:53:13.080 --> 0:53:16.680
<v Speaker 7>US perception by the rest of the world, You know,

0:53:16.800 --> 0:53:17.480
<v Speaker 7>I hope so.

0:53:18.880 --> 0:53:23.560
<v Speaker 12>And I think if Trump leans into these agreements where

0:53:23.680 --> 0:53:28.360
<v Speaker 12>countries haven't retaliated and goes forward in a respectful way,

0:53:28.760 --> 0:53:30.399
<v Speaker 12>we could see that and we could see a lot

0:53:30.440 --> 0:53:35.239
<v Speaker 12>more cooperation. But the problem is that so far the

0:53:35.360 --> 0:53:39.240
<v Speaker 12>US has proven to be a kind of unreliable trade partner.

0:53:39.760 --> 0:53:42.720
<v Speaker 12>Deals are made and then we back off from them,

0:53:43.040 --> 0:53:47.200
<v Speaker 12>and then new threats come up, and that's really problematic.

0:53:48.280 --> 0:53:50.799
<v Speaker 12>So I think there's a lot of distrust, a lot

0:53:50.840 --> 0:53:54.440
<v Speaker 12>of dislike with the US, and that's going to be

0:53:54.440 --> 0:53:58.160
<v Speaker 12>a hurdle to overcome. At the same time, other countries

0:53:58.280 --> 0:54:01.680
<v Speaker 12>need the US market again or the world's top consumer

0:54:02.200 --> 0:54:05.200
<v Speaker 12>and they need the defense from the US, so.

0:54:05.080 --> 0:54:05.960
<v Speaker 7>They will play.

0:54:06.560 --> 0:54:10.360
<v Speaker 12>But it will work a lot better if we work

0:54:10.400 --> 0:54:16.239
<v Speaker 12>on cooperative agreements than purely in this kind of bullying mentality.

0:54:16.480 --> 0:54:18.280
<v Speaker 2>We're gonna hopefully talk to you a lot more between

0:54:18.280 --> 0:54:20.000
<v Speaker 2>now and one year from now, but just make a

0:54:20.040 --> 0:54:22.520
<v Speaker 2>prediction for us for one year from now. Will this

0:54:22.600 --> 0:54:23.240
<v Speaker 2>truce hold?

0:54:24.680 --> 0:54:24.879
<v Speaker 12>Yeah?

0:54:24.960 --> 0:54:25.760
<v Speaker 7>I think it will.

0:54:25.800 --> 0:54:29.400
<v Speaker 12>There might be little glitches along the way, but again

0:54:29.960 --> 0:54:33.440
<v Speaker 12>the market will discipline Trump, whether it's the stock market,

0:54:33.520 --> 0:54:38.600
<v Speaker 12>bond yields, companies complaining. And similarly the China. Chinese economy

0:54:38.760 --> 0:54:43.440
<v Speaker 12>isn't that strong we saw, you know, BYD Tank today

0:54:43.960 --> 0:54:48.280
<v Speaker 12>or recently, because there's just not enough demand for Chinese goods.

0:54:48.760 --> 0:54:51.640
<v Speaker 12>So I absolutely think it will hold, but we won't

0:54:51.640 --> 0:54:52.760
<v Speaker 12>get a lot more.

0:54:53.239 --> 0:54:53.960
<v Speaker 7>It'll hold.

0:54:54.239 --> 0:54:57.520
<v Speaker 3>The muddle along and kinda continues to try and get

0:54:57.560 --> 0:54:59.160
<v Speaker 3>that domestic economy going.

0:54:58.960 --> 0:54:59.919
<v Speaker 7>But it's really been a strike.

0:55:00.080 --> 0:55:03.560
<v Speaker 3>Caroline Frauinch's Dan of the see San Diego School of

0:55:03.560 --> 0:55:05.120
<v Speaker 3>Global Policy and Strategy.

0:55:05.880 --> 0:55:11.319
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:55:11.480 --> 0:55:15.560
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