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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It was me Joey p Jop Zapia

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Speaker 1: and with me today the Welsh, the Joe Arico, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about projections. Projections are sometimes the fruits

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Speaker 1: of the devil, sometimes are the pathway to success. And

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Speaker 1: today our discussion is gonna be about some of the projections.

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Speaker 1: Right now, we're using the ATC projections, which is a

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Speaker 1: nice one because it kind of collects all the data

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Speaker 1: from all the other projections and lops them into a

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Speaker 1: little pile for us to look at. And we're gonna

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Speaker 1: talk about some of these projections that seem pretty bullish,

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Speaker 1: whether or not we agree or disagree with them. And

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Speaker 1: that is a good time. So if you like a

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Speaker 1: good time, subscribe to the channel, subscribe to the podcast feed,

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Speaker 1: and of course you can always leave your comments below.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate everybody watching the last couple of videos. Remember

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Speaker 1: we got the Ultimate Guide series out too, so if

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Speaker 1: you're just getting up to speed again with Fantasy Baseball,

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Speaker 1: we just had an incredible group of guests the last

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Speaker 1: couple weeks, especially in the pitching side. Eno Saris and

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Speaker 1: Nick Pollock joined us to talk pitchers last week. We've

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Speaker 1: gone through all the positions. It's on the YouTube channels,

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Speaker 1: on the podcast feed, it's all there for you. And

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Speaker 1: of course remember when you drop your comments below, you

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Speaker 1: could win something very special. In fact, we've got a

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Speaker 1: winner right now, the winner of our Fantasy Baseball Championship

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Speaker 1: Belt giveaway, Chris Voss and Woody. We got two winners,

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Speaker 1: so congratulations Chris Voss, that's vas and Woody I only

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Speaker 1: assume is the toy story fellow there. So it's nice

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Speaker 1: that something finally went his way. He's on a rough

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Speaker 1: twenty years, gets cast aside, he almost gets blown up,

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Speaker 1: gets given away, almost dies in an incinerator. So it's

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Speaker 1: nice to see Woody getting something nice like a Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Championship belt. And you get in touch with us Woody

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Speaker 1: and Chris Voss at mail bag at Fantasybros dot com

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Speaker 1: with your mailing address, screenshot your YouTube account and we'll

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Speaker 1: confirm that and we'll get it sent out to you again.

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Speaker 1: Chris Voss and Woody, congratulations, you're the big winner. And

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Speaker 1: of course when one giveaway goes away, another takes a trait.

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Speaker 1: It's place and We've got the big, amazing Fantasy Baseball

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Speaker 1: Trophy courtesy of our good friends at trophy Smack, the

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Speaker 1: number one destination for epic fantasy sports hardware. This is

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Speaker 1: your shot to win it again. Subscribe to the channel.

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Speaker 1: Drop your comments below. In the stunning black trophy featuring

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Speaker 1: high quality metal columns. Those are the best kind of

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Speaker 1: metal columns to the high quality ones. Nineteen year perpetual

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Speaker 1: base that's longer than Joe Rico has been watching baseball.

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Speaker 1: I feel like, and of course we want you to

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Speaker 1: win this, so subscribe to the channel. Ring the bell

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Speaker 1: to that goes Dan. Drop your comments below. That's it.

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Speaker 1: That's all you gotta do, gentlemen, Let's talk baseball now

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Speaker 1: that we got all that stuff out of the way.

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Speaker 1: Although I do like giving away free stuff, Welsh projections

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Speaker 1: are something like for me when I do the Black

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Speaker 1: Book series every year on Amazon. By the way, just

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Speaker 1: updated for March. Go check it out. I use projections

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Speaker 1: in the relative position value along with last year's stats

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Speaker 1: and then three year averages when applicable. I find that

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Speaker 1: gives me a nice base of what to look forward to.

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Speaker 1: I know with some players you don't get all that

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Speaker 1: data right, you have players who are rookies, player who's

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Speaker 1: second year guys, you don't get to use all that.

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Speaker 1: So how heavily do projections way for you when you

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Speaker 1: are making your rankings up and doing all your business

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Speaker 1: getting ready for fantasy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, projections are pretty divisive for a lot of people,

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Speaker 2: especially in the fantasy base world. And by the way,

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Speaker 2: I want to give a shout out something didn't mention.

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Speaker 2: This is the first year Fantasy Pros finishes the number

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Speaker 2: one projections. We rank projection systems and then we rank

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Speaker 2: rankers and we put it out there and shout out

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Speaker 2: to Ariel who has been up there, shout out to

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Speaker 2: Cardi's has been up there. But this is the first

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Speaker 2: year Fantasy Pros had the number one projection. So you

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Speaker 2: know that's a huge, big positive. But you know it's

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Speaker 2: a very divisive thing because there are my cohort, Scott Bogman,

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Speaker 2: not the pays attention to it, not the biggest projection.

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Speaker 2: Scott White, our friend from CBS, has kind of talked

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Speaker 2: about kind of being again, I want to paint people

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Speaker 2: as anti projections, whether or not, but there's not as

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Speaker 2: attuned to them. And then obviously you've got fantasy baseball

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Speaker 2: people that are locked in making their own I use

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Speaker 2: projections as a great baseline to tell me the story

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Speaker 2: the path of a player because projections, you know, you

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Speaker 2: said something interesting. You're like, you use projections and three

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Speaker 2: year averages. Well, a lot of projections like.

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Speaker 1: Are three year averages.

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Speaker 2: That's kind of the baseline of it. It's like they'll

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Speaker 2: be weighted differently. You now have a lot of different

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Speaker 2: things like the bat X and CARDI is using like

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Speaker 2: stat cast data, they're using ballpark information. You know, they're

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Speaker 2: using a lot of other pieces to the formula that

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Speaker 2: we're using to analyze players to be a part of that.

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Speaker 2: So projections have gotten so much bigger. But you know,

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Speaker 2: I think the like the highs and lows of what

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Speaker 2: a player can be, projections tell a really great story.

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Speaker 2: So I think it's a very beneficial thing. You should

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Speaker 2: kind of know where you're at in that realm. Now

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Speaker 2: do I use it in a I've got to put

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Speaker 2: out the auction calculator based on the projections to tell

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Speaker 2: me the dollars, and I do it one for one, No,

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Speaker 2: like Ariol does that. Like Ariol's very much like, well,

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Speaker 2: this is what it is, and this is what I'm

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Speaker 2: going to do. I'm not like that. I like to

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Speaker 2: have the baseline. I like to go through my process

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Speaker 2: and and I use it as a tool in my

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Speaker 2: tool belt. That's I think what I've always said. I

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Speaker 2: think there's a lot of different things you can do,

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Speaker 2: but it is simply a tool in my tool belt

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Speaker 2: outside of being the only tool in my hand. If

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Speaker 2: that makes sense.

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Speaker 1: Well, whatever holds your pants up on the show, that's

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Speaker 1: what I support. A Rico Welsh made a good point,

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Speaker 1: which is, you know the amount of stack cast data

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Speaker 1: and stuff that we've had here, it's really evolved over

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Speaker 1: the last five to ten years. I used to be

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Speaker 1: somebody that wasn't anti projection, but I was kind of like,

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Speaker 1: let me see the projections. I'm a big eye test guy.

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Speaker 1: I played a lot of baseball, I coached a lot

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Speaker 1: of baseball in my life, so to me, a lot

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Speaker 1: of it is just what I see sometimes. But I

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Speaker 1: do believe that because stat cast data and some of

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Speaker 1: the advanced metrics that MLB's really put forth these last

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Speaker 1: five years does actually make certain projection systems more intriguing

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Speaker 1: to me than in the past. Typically in the past,

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Speaker 1: I always felt like, well, they just kind of give

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Speaker 1: you an amalgamation of what happened the year before, and well,

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Speaker 1: I can look at last year's stats, that's pretty easy.

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Speaker 1: But do you feel the same way like there has

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Speaker 1: been a little advance in terms of maybe not the accuracy,

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Speaker 1: but maybe just a little bit more of the intrigue

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Speaker 1: because of the fact that some of these incredible technological

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Speaker 1: advancements that we've had in MLB have kind of opened

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Speaker 1: us up a little bit more to the concept of

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Speaker 1: these projections actually being a little bit more useful to

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Speaker 1: us in fantasy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the projections. I like projections Now. I think it

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Speaker 3: does depend on which particular player you're talking about in

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Speaker 3: which system you're talking about, because they can vary a lot.

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Speaker 3: If you're talking about, you know, the guys who've been

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Speaker 3: in the league for six or seven years and their

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Speaker 3: superstar type of players, I don't know, the projections are

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Speaker 3: going to do so so much for me, right, you

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Speaker 3: kind of know what to expect from those guys. Every

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Speaker 3: now and then you can be led on to, oh,

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Speaker 3: he had to drop in barrel rate or something like

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Speaker 3: that last year, and maybe the power is going to

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Speaker 3: go down a little bit for those guys who are

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Speaker 3: the five to ten year veterans, you generally know what

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Speaker 3: to expect. Projections are kind of tricky when it comes

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Speaker 3: to the young players, the guys who don't have much

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Speaker 3: of a sample size in the majors or even the

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Speaker 3: minor leagues. If you look at the Roman Anthony projections,

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Speaker 3: the Connor Griffin projections there tend to be a little

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Speaker 3: bit more conservative because there's less of a sample size.

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Speaker 3: So I think you use the projections. But something that

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Speaker 3: was said on a pod a few weeks ago, I

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Speaker 3: forget which podcast or where it was, but projections are

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Speaker 3: never going to give you the breakout players. They're always

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Speaker 3: going to shoot for more of the fiftieth percentile number,

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Speaker 3: So you have to do your own evaluations. The projections

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Speaker 3: really help, and Welsh put it well when he said

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Speaker 3: it's a tool in his tool belt. You use them.

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Speaker 3: But I would never go into a draft with just

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Speaker 3: the list of auction values and say this is my

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Speaker 3: rankings list. You got to do your own evaluations. You

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Speaker 3: got to infer a little bit if it's about playing time,

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Speaker 3: if there are off field issues that might come into play.

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Speaker 3: A guy missed half of last season on Brenton Doyle

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Speaker 3: had a lot of personal troubles last year. Are those

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Speaker 3: accounted in the projections?

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Speaker 1: Maybe? Maybe not.

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Speaker 3: And then you have the various different systems that do

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Speaker 3: different things. Steamer wants to be the first to market

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Speaker 3: and they're usually pretty good, especially for pitchers, but they

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Speaker 3: come out very early. The bat X incorporates the stackcast data,

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Speaker 3: and now we have the bad X for pitchers. So

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Speaker 3: there's a lot that you can do with the projections.

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Speaker 3: ATC gives you that well rounded average pretty much of

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Speaker 3: every other system. So I think it depends what you're

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Speaker 3: looking for. If you're looking for a list of players

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Speaker 3: to draft, I wouldn't go about it that way necessarily,

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Speaker 3: but they and pinpoint certain outliers that you might miss

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Speaker 3: when you're doing your own evaluations.

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Speaker 1: All Right, So we've got ten players we're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about today. We've got five pitchers, five hitters. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start with the hitters, and we're to start with Gunner Henderson,

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Speaker 1: a guy who last year did not live up to

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Speaker 1: his expectations or his projections, just for the record, came

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Speaker 1: off a fantastic twenty twenty four season, thirty seven homers,

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Speaker 1: ninety two RBI, stole twenty one bases, hit two eighty

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Speaker 1: one and last year a bit of a down year. Now, granted,

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Speaker 1: Orioles lineup around him certainly had issues, injuries, all kinds

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Speaker 1: of things, but that home run total dropped by twenty,

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Speaker 1: went from thirty seven to seventeen, and it's not like

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Speaker 1: he missed significant time. He played five less games year

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Speaker 1: over a year. So obviously this is one where you

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Speaker 1: look at the projections right now and they're telling you, hey,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna hit twenty six home runs, which is kind

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Speaker 1: of interesting because it's split in the difference. He's gonna

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Speaker 1: still twenty four bases eighty three RBI over one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty two games and score ninety six runs. So

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Speaker 1: the runs in the RBI, okay, that's fine, that feels good.

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Speaker 1: Stone bases are probably close. But it's the home run

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Speaker 1: total too, which I think is really interesting. So Arika,

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Speaker 1: I'll start with you on this one here, because Gunner

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Speaker 1: Henderson obviously last year disappointment in terms of the power,

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Speaker 1: and rather than going and projecting him all the way

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Speaker 1: back at thirty seven, they are projecting him well over

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Speaker 1: twenty despite the fact last year's total was low. Are

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Speaker 1: you buying these projections where he's It seems like they're

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Speaker 1: just saying, yeah, he's going to bounce back, maybe not

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Speaker 1: all the way quite to where it was two years ago,

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Speaker 1: but certainly circumstantially better than last year in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. The thing with Gunner Henderson that and there's so

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Speaker 3: many reports, and there's so much news all the time,

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Speaker 3: it's easy to forget that Gunner Henderson last year around

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Speaker 3: this time was dealing with the shoulders strain. I was

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Speaker 3: an intercostal problem that cost him the first week of

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Speaker 3: the season. He went from a first round pick to

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Speaker 3: a second round pick in a lot of rooms, and

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Speaker 3: to his credit, he actually stayed on the field for

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Speaker 3: the majority of the season, still one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 3: four games. But I've read a couple things that suggest

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Speaker 3: he was playing through that injury for the majority of

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Speaker 3: last season, which would explain to me the power dipping

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Speaker 3: down to seventeen homers. You still have decent heart hit

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Speaker 3: data when you look below the surface. A forty nine

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Speaker 3: percent hard hit rate is still very good. Eight and

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Speaker 3: a half percent barrel rate. It's not amazing, but it's

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Speaker 3: not terrible, especially if he's playing through an injury. Exit

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Speaker 3: velosiage is still really good and the ballpark is excellent.

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Speaker 3: If you look at Oriel Park, if you isolate just

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Speaker 3: for twenty twenty five, it was a third most friendly

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Speaker 3: park for left handed hitters and it was the second

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Speaker 3: most friendly park for left handed power. So I think

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Speaker 3: a healthy Gunner Henderson still so young. We forget how

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Speaker 3: young the guy is. Twenty four years old, still in

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Speaker 3: probably the best lineup he's ever been, and Gunner Henderson

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Speaker 3: could very easily be a thirty thirty guy, hundred runs,

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Speaker 3: hundred ribbies, hitting somewhere in the two seventy range. I

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Speaker 3: think that he is very justified at the end of

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Speaker 3: the first beginning of the second round. I like the

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Speaker 3: projections for him for sure.

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Speaker 1: Welsh, what do you think of these ATC projections for

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Speaker 1: Gunner Henderson? Do you think they're even though they're good

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Speaker 1: and they seem to be very positive. Do you think

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Speaker 1: that it's not accounting enough for the injury last year

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Speaker 1: zapping him of for that power?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean how you said that, I think like

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Speaker 2: it it's it's not accounting because the it's done. The

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Speaker 2: shoulders over. Sorry, trying to get like mince my words

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Speaker 2: on what it is, but like, I don't think it

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Speaker 2: needs to account for that injury that was last year.

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Speaker 2: So what it's accounting for is the skill set that's back,

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Speaker 2: and you know, he's a little there's a little tricky

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Speaker 2: because I think there's an argument to say take out

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Speaker 2: the injury, because I think the injury did kind of

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Speaker 2: play a role. One way you can also see that

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Speaker 2: is year over year in his first two years, tremendous

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Speaker 2: bat speed with Gunner Henderson, he raised, you know, his

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Speaker 2: bat speed, and then that thing came down a little

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Speaker 2: bit into the third year. So I think that's something

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Speaker 2: you could start to look at, like, oh, maybe you

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Speaker 2: know he had to backtrack the bat speed or whatever.

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Speaker 2: But one of the reasons I think you could make

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Speaker 2: the argument that the projections might be a little too

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Speaker 2: pollyanna and that there might be some question marks is

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Speaker 2: he definitely doesn't have like an elite barrel, elite launch angle,

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Speaker 2: or elite ability to pull the ball. So those would

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Speaker 2: be things where I would say, like, all right, maybe

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Speaker 2: if I'm trying to make a case for it, maybe

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Speaker 2: the shoulder issue wasn't something that was carrying so long.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it was that, like, he had a decrease by

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Speaker 2: almost three percentile points of a barrel percentage and just

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Speaker 2: single did and that's really not great. Like you want

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Speaker 2: like your big, trustworthy power hitters to be guys that

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Speaker 2: are into like the elevens of twelves, which he was

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Speaker 2: the year prior. On top of that, he doesn't make

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Speaker 2: up for some of those things with a big launch angle.

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Speaker 2: He has two straight years of an under ten degree

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Speaker 2: launch angle and he did not pull the ball. So

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Speaker 2: those are reasons why I would say, like I could

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Speaker 2: actually see this being into the twenty twenty ones. He's

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Speaker 2: like a doubles master. I think it's the BATX actually

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Speaker 2: has him for one less homer. But then on the

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Speaker 2: opposite end, I would just say, like I buy it

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Speaker 2: because he has done it. You know, he has done

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Speaker 2: it two straight years. You know he had had what

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Speaker 2: thirty seven and twenty eight. I just went away from

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Speaker 2: it into yeah, twenty eight and thirty seven over the

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Speaker 2: past two years. He does hit the ball crazy hard

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Speaker 2: ninety two average ex velocity. Hard hit numbers are great.

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Speaker 2: The one thing that projections don't do a great job

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Speaker 2: of is progression, Like great progression, because like projections are

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Speaker 2: always looking and building off of what we have had

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Speaker 2: and what have they told us. It's not accounting for

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Speaker 2: if Lennard Henderson were to start pulling the ball a

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Speaker 2: whole bunch more, or he were to, you know, increase

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Speaker 2: his launch angle, like one of those two things. With

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Speaker 2: his skill set incredible batspeed is going to create big numbers.

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Speaker 2: So I'm just kind of talking through this because this

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Speaker 2: is the first guy here, and he's also super interesting

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Speaker 2: because it's a superstar. He had an injury. We know

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00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:28,839
Speaker 2: he can be a thirty thirty guy, but there are

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Speaker 2: some elements in his game that I think could bring

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Speaker 2: this lower. But I'm going to buy this because I

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Speaker 2: think he is like appropriately priced as a target that

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Speaker 2: I want to get this year because he is perpetually

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Speaker 2: one of those guys that is one or two little

311
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Speaker 2: tweaks away from literally being in the discussion with Bobby Witt,

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Speaker 2: like if he just pulled the ball or got the

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Speaker 2: ball in the air a little bit more. We're talking

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Speaker 2: about like should Gunner be in the same discussion as

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Speaker 2: Bobby Witt, And you're getting him in the second round.

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Speaker 2: So I think Projections are doing a really.

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Speaker 1: Good job here and more lineup protection with Pete A.

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Speaker 1: Lonzo is really interesting too. To me, that's the factor

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Speaker 1: and I would like to bring into the conversation because

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Speaker 1: I don't don't think either of you guys really touched

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Speaker 1: on that. It is funny too. You go back and

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Speaker 1: look at the twenty twenty four Baseball savon page. It

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Speaker 1: is scorching red everywhere. Everything's in the ninetieth percentile for

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Speaker 1: the most part except the barrel percentage, Like that's the

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Speaker 1: only thing year over year that's not And then you

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Speaker 1: go to twenty five and it goes from seventy six

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Speaker 1: to forty six. Right, the barrel percentage, so is one

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Speaker 1: of those things. Finds very interesting.

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Speaker 2: Finding anomaly like that. That's something that I do and

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Speaker 2: maybe it's it's going to end up being just something

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Speaker 2: I'm wrong about in the field. But like when you

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Speaker 2: look at a guy and you're just like, oh, look,

333
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Speaker 2: here's four years and one year is off, like I

334
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Speaker 2: do think you can kind of push that aside. You

335
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 2: can give them the benefit of the doubt until they

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Speaker 2: prove you wrong. And he's got that. That's the exact

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00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,120
Speaker 2: point right there is It's like you've got three years

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00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,040
Speaker 2: under gunner two of them have been like this elite

339
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Speaker 2: first round talent level. This year some things tailed off.

340
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Speaker 2: So I think that's adequate enough to be like, oh,

341
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Speaker 2: you know what, that shoulder probably did account for some

342
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Speaker 2: of these problems, and I'm willing to go back. And

343
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Speaker 2: that's what this is like a pure like puristic projections. Look,

344
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Speaker 2: this is a three year player. It is taking three

345
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Speaker 2: year averages. It is waiting the most recent year, but

346
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Speaker 2: it's not taking over. And the long term thing shows

347
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Speaker 2: us like this is like a thirty home run guy.

348
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Speaker 1: All right, next guy, we want to talk about a

349
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Speaker 1: zach Nto, who's a player a couple of years ago.

350
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Speaker 1: I think Welsh was really the highest of people that

351
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Speaker 1: I had talked about, and certainly last year was a

352
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Speaker 1: breakout season. He's twenty five years old. Last year twenty

353
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Speaker 1: six homers, just sixty two rbi. But again lineup placement,

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Speaker 1: eighty two run scored, twenty six steals, hit two fifty five.

355
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Speaker 1: This year, the projections are giving you basically all that

356
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Speaker 1: and a little bit more so. He is projected for

357
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Speaker 1: twenty seven homers. We're looking at eighty six run score here.

358
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Speaker 1: We are looking also here for netto at seventy five RBI,

359
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Speaker 1: twenty seven steals. So it looks like a really strong

360
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Speaker 1: back to back season here for zach Netto. Watched My

361
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Speaker 1: question to you, looking at this Angel's lineup, do you

362
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Speaker 1: think this lineup supports another copy paste season basically for

363
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Speaker 1: zach Netto as he continues to establish himself as the

364
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,000
Speaker 1: upper tier guys, maybe not elite, but certainly one of

365
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 1: the upper tier players. Is the top fifty guys in

366
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Speaker 1: MLB fantasy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think like you're maybe alluding to, like it's

368
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:12,280
Speaker 2: just not strong support, like the anti Gunner Henderson thing

369
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Speaker 2: where we're like, hey, look there's pet Alonzo and there's

370
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 2: like a lot better support around that. This is a

371
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:18,720
Speaker 2: team that doesn't I really just don't think that has

372
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,080
Speaker 2: to do with zach Netto. I mean, zach Netto has

373
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Speaker 2: never been a guy that has had a bunch of

374
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Speaker 2: RBIs you know. I mean he had sixty two last year,

375
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Speaker 2: seventy seven the last year. The only thing that's the

376
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 2: only projection that's like really high on him right now

377
00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 2: is zips, So we can just throw that out the window.

378
00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 2: Everybody else is like, he's going to repeat that he

379
00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 2: doesn't score tons and tons of runs. Again, that's all

380
00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 2: supportive like what the offense has been, it's still projecting

381
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Speaker 2: the same thing. So then if you're going to come

382
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Speaker 2: back and say, well, you know, does his homers and

383
00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,240
Speaker 2: stolen bases like those are not really relative to the

384
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Speaker 2: rest of the team. I actually think the thing that

385
00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 2: you have to look at more is the game's plate.

386
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,480
Speaker 2: That's the projection, and that's something projections really struggle with.

387
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Speaker 2: I know Rico agree with me on that, is that

388
00:16:59,920 --> 00:17:02,280
Speaker 2: like they're projecting him at like almost one hundred and

389
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,439
Speaker 2: fifty games and he's only done that once in his career.

390
00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:08,040
Speaker 2: So that's something that it's like, you know, he's had

391
00:17:08,080 --> 00:17:10,320
Speaker 2: a lot of nagging injuries that have been floating around

392
00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 2: that's taken you know, the talent away. But from a

393
00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:16,920
Speaker 2: talent perspective, this is the argument that we just said

394
00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,920
Speaker 2: with Gunner, We're like, man, if Gunner were to change

395
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 2: this or that he could be like a top three

396
00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 2: overall player. He had growth, Zachnto had growth. His barrel

397
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:27,080
Speaker 2: percentage went from eight percent to fourteen percent. That's elite.

398
00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,679
Speaker 2: His launch angle twelve degrees to seventeen degrees, that's like

399
00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:33,920
Speaker 2: elite pulled air percentage twenty one to twenty four pulled

400
00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,000
Speaker 2: air percentage might be one of the most important stats

401
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 2: to pay attention to, for like continued growth on guys

402
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,119
Speaker 2: that maybe don't feel like giant power hitters, but his

403
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 2: hard hit rate went up, his strike adds didn't become

404
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,000
Speaker 2: a massive problem. Like zach Neto has all the tools

405
00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 2: to continuously be a twenty five plus homer guy. He

406
00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:53,840
Speaker 2: steals at a pretty high clip. I think there's no reason,

407
00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:56,720
Speaker 2: no reason to think that Zachndo will not be a

408
00:17:56,760 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 2: twenty five to twenty five guy unless he doesn't play

409
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Speaker 2: a bunch. More So, the projection to stare at here

410
00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:05,159
Speaker 2: is a very Pollyanna look of one hundred and forty

411
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Speaker 2: eight games for a player that has only done that

412
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Speaker 2: once in three years. So that's the thing that I

413
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 2: stare at. Everything else like this is who zach Netto is.

414
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Speaker 2: He's two fifty, twenty five, twenty five, eighty and seventy

415
00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:17,760
Speaker 2: and like that's pretty solid space.

416
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Speaker 1: A Rico, What are your thoughts on Neto here? Because

417
00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:21,399
Speaker 1: if you dig a little deeper, for like all the

418
00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:23,600
Speaker 1: good points Welsh made, there is some swinging miss in

419
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,159
Speaker 1: his game. So does that hinder and potentially hitting some

420
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Speaker 1: of these projections that seem pretty strong.

421
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Speaker 3: I like zach Netto, I think more than the average person.

422
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,480
Speaker 3: I think you mentioned top fifty like I see zach

423
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,880
Speaker 3: Netto more as closer to like a top twenty five

424
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 3: guy personally, considering he missed the first thirty odd games

425
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Speaker 3: of last year and still gave you a full season's

426
00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:45,760
Speaker 3: worth of stats. I think that he can be a

427
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 3: thirty five thirty five guy if he stays healthy, and

428
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Speaker 3: you know, looking at his career, like twenty twenty three,

429
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 3: he played half the season in the majors, but he

430
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Speaker 3: played another half the season in the minors. I believe

431
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Speaker 3: that was like his partial call up season in twenty

432
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,320
Speaker 3: twenty three. I think he did deal with some injury

433
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 3: as well, but he didn't get called up, I think

434
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 3: initially because he was still so young and he'd just

435
00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:09,159
Speaker 3: been drafted. I think I could be misremembering that. And

436
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:12,159
Speaker 3: then the shoulder injury last year. From what I understand,

437
00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 3: it's healed, so at twenty five years old, I'd be

438
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:16,639
Speaker 3: willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for

439
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 3: health and sometimes that works out, sometimes it doesn't. But

440
00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 3: you know, eighty two runs in a horrible lineup in

441
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty eight games. It makes you think

442
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,000
Speaker 3: if he does reach that one hundred and forty eight

443
00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,200
Speaker 3: games at ATC's calling for. Like Welsh mentioned, the games

444
00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 3: play projections can be kind of wonky, but if he

445
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 3: gets to that one hundred and forty eight games, he

446
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:35,160
Speaker 3: should be close to one hundred runs. I think he's

447
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,280
Speaker 3: a thirty thirty guy pretty easily if he plays that

448
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,119
Speaker 3: amount of games. So I don't really worry about the lineup.

449
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 3: I don't really worry about much with Netto other than

450
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,280
Speaker 3: the potential for maybe that shoulder injury comes back, because

451
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,199
Speaker 3: I think a lot of the time we assume that

452
00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 3: injuries are healed when a guy is able to play

453
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 3: a few months, and sometimes they're able to just play

454
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,399
Speaker 3: through a few months hurt, and then they end up

455
00:19:54,480 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 3: hurting themselves more and end up missing time the next season.

456
00:19:57,359 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 3: So I like Neto. I think that where he is priced,

457
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 3: he is worth that injury risk. But something that's kind

458
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:04,320
Speaker 3: of interesting to me if I look at the last

459
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 3: two weeks of NFBC drafts, his ADP is exactly the

460
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 3: same as Francisco Lindor. They're both going to pick twenty seven. Overall,

461
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:12,960
Speaker 3: it's a tough choice. It is a tough choice. I

462
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 3: don't know where I'd go there. I think it would

463
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 3: probably be a toss up depending on my draft at

464
00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:16,680
Speaker 3: that point.

465
00:20:16,800 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 2: One thing I just wanted to add in that I

466
00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 2: think is important to say because I don't think I

467
00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 2: made this clear with myself. I don't pay attention to

468
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 2: games played projections or innings pitch projections. I just want

469
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: that to be clear. I'm making cases for some of these.

470
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:32,879
Speaker 2: It is the thing I care about the least is

471
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,920
Speaker 2: what any projection has to tell me on the games

472
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,959
Speaker 2: they're going to play or the innings pitch. The innings

473
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 2: pitch is how I was able to take advantage of

474
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,240
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet in the betting market Joe when we did

475
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 2: our shows, in both shows, when we did the Garret

476
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 2: Crochet stuff, because he was like the highest case across

477
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,160
Speaker 2: the board, but they projected his inning slow and it's

478
00:20:48,200 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 2: like nope. So the argument I'm not trying to make

479
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 2: the argument like oh, Zeneta's this big injury prone in

480
00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: this and look at the games played. It's just like no,

481
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 2: that is a standout piece. But I don't pay attention

482
00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: because it's like fresh late at this point, Like guy

483
00:21:01,359 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 2: had an injury last year, he's clear now. I think

484
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 2: that's the approach to do. So, I just I don't

485
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 2: care nor pay attention to any of projected games played

486
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 2: or innings pitched.

487
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 3: Well.

488
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 1: Games played had a lot to do with Jeremy pania

489
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: season last year, which is unfortunate because we missed a

490
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 1: chunk of it. He only played one hundred and twenty five,

491
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,359
Speaker 1: but he was on pace to just crush all of

492
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 1: his career highs across the board. He had three zero

493
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:25,919
Speaker 1: four first time ever over three hundred last year. He

494
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 1: stole twenty bases that tied his career high, seventeen homers

495
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 1: that was the second highest in his career, again but

496
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,639
Speaker 1: less games played, and then sixty two rbi sixty eight

497
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: run scored. If you look at the projections here for

498
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 1: Jeremy Pania, you're looking at an eighteen eighty two season

499
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: with sixty nine RBI in there, and then you're looking

500
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,360
Speaker 1: at somewhere on nineteen stone bases here according to ATCs,

501
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 1: so this is a basically a rico. It's telling us, hey,

502
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 1: what Jeremy Payna did last year is is right and

503
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 1: it's correct. But to Walsh's point about the games right, well,

504
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 1: we're projecting more games. I feel like we should even

505
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 1: project maybe a little bit more stats considering what Jeremy

506
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 1: Painia was doing before the injury unfortunately kind of derailed

507
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: things for a little while. So I think these these

508
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 1: are good projections for him. They're fair projections. I almost

509
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: feel like they're still a little light. Do you agree

510
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: or disagree?

511
00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 3: I think that they're pretty all right. I think that

512
00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 3: there is some risk in terms of the power because

513
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 3: you know, the last couple of seasons four percent barrel rate,

514
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,640
Speaker 3: five percent parrel rate, thirty five thirty eight percent hard

515
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 3: hit rates. He did jump up to eight percent and

516
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:31,960
Speaker 3: forty two percent, respectively. But that's why I, like we

517
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,480
Speaker 3: mentioned on a show a few weeks ago, you look

518
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 3: at those three year averages, and you also got a

519
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 3: factor in that Jeremy Pania was hurt a couple times

520
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 3: last year, and the Astros don't have a foggy clue

521
00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 3: of what to do with their injured players. They have

522
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: shown that over the last couple of years, so I

523
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 3: don't really trust them in terms of evaluating what to

524
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 3: do with it.

525
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 1: Like when you go to the nurse's office and you

526
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: broke your arm and she's like, just here, put an

527
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: ice pack on it, or boil your nose.

528
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's put some passing on it. It sounds stupid

529
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 3: to say in a way like they're professionals. They're professional doctors. Whatever.

530
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 3: They bungled talk, they bungled Alvarez last year, they misdiagnosed

531
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 3: Payana's injury. So when are we going to figure it out? Right? So,

532
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 3: I think Paina is a really good baseball player. I

533
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 3: think he's maybe a little bit better real life player

534
00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 3: than fantasy player. He feels like a guy who needs

535
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:14,920
Speaker 3: to accumulate a little bit. In one hundred and twenty

536
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 3: five games last year, he was amazing, but it was

537
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: also in a career year. He takes a step back

538
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 3: and he's not that one thirty five WRC plus. Let's

539
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 3: say he's around the league average bat he had been

540
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 3: the first couple of years, then he really does need

541
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: to accumulate a'lla Heraldo Perdomo to give you those stats

542
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 3: that you're hoping for. Unless he's able to build on

543
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 3: those barrel and hard hit rates, and it's definitely a possibility,

544
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 3: but at twenty eight years old. I think we kind

545
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: of know what he is. I think that you can

546
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,880
Speaker 3: probably split the difference between what he did last year

547
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 3: rate wise and what he did in the previous couple

548
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 3: of years and say he's going to be like a

549
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: two seventy hitter. He gives you best case scenario at

550
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: twenty twenty bat with decent counting stats. I wouldn't say

551
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 3: he's a massive target, but I think he's a decent fallback. Like,

552
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 3: there are so many good shortstops that I would prefer

553
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 3: to target. But if I miss out on some of

554
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: the elite names, and I'm taking Jeremy Paanea as the

555
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,600
Speaker 3: tenth or twelfth name off the board, I think I'm

556
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 3: fine to fall back on that.

557
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: Last year in our shows, Paine was a guy that

558
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 1: we liked a lot Welsh because of his ADP. We

559
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 1: thought he's a good return on investment, and he was.

560
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: He was great. We looked like geniuses there. What's your

561
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 1: take on this situation? Here were paining you because it

562
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 1: does feel like although these projections are solid, and then

563
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: moving forward here, maybe they're underselling him a little bit,

564
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: or you were Joe Rico is where you think, No,

565
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: this is fair considering his platform so far. Because Joe

566
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:31,919
Speaker 1: said it, he's reaching his age twenty eight season. This

567
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 1: is where players are supposed to reach that next level

568
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: if they have another gear in them.

569
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of don't agree with the Like they're

570
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 2: twenty eight, so we know who they are. I mean

571
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 2: this is the prime, like they really if you're going

572
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:45,199
Speaker 2: to pop, you pop, right.

573
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 3: Yeah.

574
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:50,199
Speaker 2: Now I understand the conceptually, like you know, you're growing

575
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 2: to that space, but like Joe Adell is like a

576
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 2: different He's serviceable now, I suppose. But what this comes

577
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 2: back to, not making it a whole thing is like

578
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: what I said earlier, I don't think the one I

579
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,680
Speaker 2: don't think projections do a great job of is projecting growth.

580
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: I think it projects what we've had and the best

581
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 2: case scenario for that I suppose could be like Cardi

582
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: with using like stat cast at and stuff like that.

583
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: So I don't think.

584
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 2: It's uncommon for it to look and see like, Okay,

585
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 2: you know you had a mediocre year. Hey he took

586
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 2: this big step. We waited, but we're gonna repeat. But

587
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: what I my counter to this is like I think

588
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 2: this is underselling. I think this is underselling Jeremy Pania.

589
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,440
Speaker 2: So instead of you know, dolling this up, is like like, oh,

590
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: it's like pretty good, but what No, I just think

591
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,919
Speaker 2: this is wrong. Like, I think Jeremy Pania had a

592
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,200
Speaker 2: phenomenal year and it is built around consistent growth three

593
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:44,680
Speaker 2: straight years. Yes, minimal numbers. His barrel percentage has gone

594
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: up three straight years, his hard hit rate has gone up,

595
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 2: his strikeout rates has gone down in that time. He

596
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 2: has gotten the ball in the air more three straight years,

597
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 2: and guess what, polled air percentage has gone up three

598
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 2: straight years to an elite ish level of twenty one percent.

599
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 2: So my point to this is like, sure, I think

600
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,120
Speaker 2: there's some elements of like his game that you could

601
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 2: look over a couple of years and maybe you know

602
00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: twenty eight and we say we kind of know, But

603
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: like he has shown growth year over year and last

604
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 2: year was the start of the breakout that was then

605
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,440
Speaker 2: cut short. I see a guy that if he continues

606
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,719
Speaker 2: this trend, is going to be close to ten percent barrel,

607
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: could be close to forty five percent hard to hit rate.

608
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:28,719
Speaker 2: If he gets the ball in the air, he's already

609
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,399
Speaker 2: pulling it more. He doesn't strike out, he gets on

610
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 2: base and you know it's beautiful, ninety seven percentile sprint speed,

611
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:37,679
Speaker 2: one of the fastest guys in the league. You can

612
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 2: still steal. He hits both rights and lefties. Well, he

613
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 2: just stopped stealing a little bit in the second half

614
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: because he got hurt. I think this is a fair

615
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 2: space to look at a guy who is a really

616
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 2: great bat, toball skills, who doesn't strike out, who showed

617
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 2: the ability to hit and steal at higher levels, to

618
00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 2: be like, hey, this is under selling him and he

619
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: could be a twenty five to twenty five guy Rico.

620
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: Would you really be surprised. Now we can agree that

621
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: maybe he doesn't get there whatever, but would you be

622
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 2: surprised if he was a twenty five to twenty five

623
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 2: guy next year?

624
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 3: No, I would have she is surprised by it. But

625
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 3: I think my general point was like, by the time

626
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: you get to age twenty eight, I think by and

627
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 3: large we know who a player is. Sometimes things change,

628
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 3: but I think what we've seen over paying is four

629
00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: years in the big leagues. We're talking almost twenty five

630
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 3: hundred played appearances. I think we have a general baseline

631
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 3: that's been established. Can he improve, can he continue to improve, Yeah,

632
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 3: he can. I think the seventeen percent strikeout rate though

633
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 3: I wouldn't call it fictional because it's been that way

634
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:33,440
Speaker 3: for the last two years, but his swinging strike rates

635
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: are like thirteen and a half fourteen percent. He chases

636
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:38,399
Speaker 3: a lot, so I could see a world where the

637
00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: strikeout rate pushes up. But I do agree with you

638
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: like the upside for Paynya. Hell, he could be a

639
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 3: thirty thirty guy. It's possible, but I think when you're

640
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 3: looking at the whole, the overall picture, he would need

641
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 3: to change a lot. He would need to continue to

642
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: boost the barrel and hard hit rates. He would need

643
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 3: to raise the ball a lot more like forty eight

644
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 3: percent ground ball rate. It's kind of hard to boost

645
00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 3: over twenty home runs as possible, but I think there

646
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:01,199
Speaker 3: needs to be a couple of light tweaks, raising the

647
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 3: ball a little bit more, maybe a little bit more

648
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: patient in terms of chasing outside of the zone. He

649
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 3: makes good contact, but his chase rates are thirty five percent.

650
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 3: It's a little bit higher than I'd like to see,

651
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 3: But there is definitely a world of upside with Penia.

652
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 3: I would just say the likeliest outcome feels like what

653
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 3: ATC or really any because all the systems here they're

654
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 3: pretty much copypaste eighteen and eighteen eighteen and nineteen eighteen

655
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: and seventeen. That's what I'd be expecting. And if you're

656
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 3: like drafting with software, if you have draft software open, well,

657
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 3: you are making your picks. Put him down for eighteen

658
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,639
Speaker 3: and eighteen, and then if Painia ends up going twenty

659
00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 3: five and twenty five, then yeah.

660
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 2: And again I think when you're looking at Jeremy Painia

661
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: and you're looking at projections, you should focus on the baseline.

662
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 2: The baseline is what you want to pay attention to.

663
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 1: But is it.

664
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 2: Perceivable back to the twenty eight year old thing. I

665
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 2: agree with everything you said, Joe, and I'm not trying

666
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: to argue he's going to be a thirty thirty guy.

667
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: But my point is is this is a guy that

668
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: has three straight years of continued growth and he's borderlining

669
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,080
Speaker 2: on this space when you're about to grow into your

670
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: your critical years, the twenty eight, twenty nine to thirty,

671
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:07,720
Speaker 2: those big years you're about to step in like can

672
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 2: you continue to grow? And I think he can. I

673
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 2: think it's I think it's easy to perceive that he

674
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 2: can based on a myriad of things that we just

675
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: talked about, but that's also why the projections are here.

676
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: You should be happy with like a twenty twenty. If

677
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 2: you can live with the cost based on that, then

678
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: I think you can live in like a really happy spot.

679
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 2: And that's what you have to come to terms with

680
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: with using projections in putting these together. But I think

681
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 2: they're under selling a player that has had three straight

682
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,200
Speaker 2: years of growth and I think he's like a just

683
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 2: a phenomenal get right now in fantasy.

684
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna talk about a player who was

685
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,479
Speaker 1: drafted as the top twenty five guy last year but

686
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 1: did not finish as one, that's for sure. But before

687
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: we do, don't forget if you're looking a place to

688
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 1: play your leagues this year, and why not try fan

689
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:51,880
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690
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,760
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691
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 1: to your liking. You can do multi team trades, elevating

692
00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 1: your strategies with trades involving more than two teams, which

693
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 1: is super fun. And of course you can use the

694
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 1: extensive list of scoring categories there. You want to make

695
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 1: your own adventure. You want to create your own fantasy

696
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: and your fantasy league, you could do it over on fantracks.

697
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,720
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698
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,600
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699
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 1: up today at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. That's

700
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: fantracks dot com slash Fantasy pros. Okay, next guy here

701
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: is Jackson Merrill. I tease it. And last year obviously

702
00:30:28,200 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: not the best year for Jackson Merrill in terms of

703
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: expectations and rookie year. Twenty four homers, sixteen steals. Last

704
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: year sixteen homers, one stolen base. He played just one

705
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: hundred and fifteen games compared to one hundred and fifty six.

706
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: The batting average rop thirty points, and obviously injuries played

707
00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: a big role for Jackson Merrill. Last year also sophomore year,

708
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: so you get to count the league adjusting to him

709
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: and him not adjusting back. Here's the thing. You look

710
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 1: at the projections for him, they're very strong. Twenty two homers,

711
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: eight stolen bases, Maybe a little light there, eighty one RBI,

712
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:59,160
Speaker 1: seventy seven runs scored. Well, she's gonna be hitting in

713
00:30:59,200 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 1: between Tatis and manu Achado. If you can't rebound there,

714
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 1: then I got to really question you know your abilities,

715
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 1: and year over year that Baseball savon page does look

716
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,240
Speaker 1: very different, as does the fact he hit sixty points

717
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 1: lower in his career against left handed pitching and his

718
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 1: OPS against left handed pitching at six forty seven compared

719
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: to eight seventy one against right handed pitching. So with

720
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: all those numbers, are you buying the projected numbers for

721
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: Jackson Maryland twenty twenty six.

722
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 2: I think the projections are solid median line here. I

723
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 2: guess like this is a tough one because I don't

724
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 2: think there's projections like tell us this like incredible story,

725
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: you know what I'm saying, Like you played one hundred

726
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 2: and fifteen games, hit sixteen homers. I don't think they're

727
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 2: presenting him as this like wildly awesome player. If anything,

728
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 2: I think you could probably look at these projections is

729
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 2: like maybe a disappointment because you see pretty low run

730
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 2: in RBI numbers into the seven I mean eight b

731
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 2: x asm under eighty runs and RBI ATC has got

732
00:31:57,120 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: him under eighty on the runs the whole I think

733
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 2: if you stare at the homers. Like, sure, I think

734
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 2: he could be a twenty home run guy, but I

735
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 2: think they're telling a solid story, and I think it's

736
00:32:08,520 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: that like he's a bit under He's a bit of

737
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 2: an underwhelming player. He does struggle against lefties. He's been

738
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 2: consistent as far as like how he's gone in the

739
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 2: batting average front, but he stopped stealing bases. The base

740
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 2: stealing went away. I don't know if he one hundred

741
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 2: percent knows the type of hitter that you know he

742
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: wants to be. You know, he was always like a

743
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 2: solid contact guy, but that kind of depleted this past year.

744
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: So we just might not have the story enough. You know,

745
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: This is why you need those like three year windows.

746
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 2: He hit and he expected batting average of three hundred

747
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: two years ago, it was two sixty three, So is

748
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: it gonna be two eighty this year? If he's a

749
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 2: higher end hitter, I think he scores a bunch more

750
00:32:44,240 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 2: runs in RBIs I don't know if I buy the

751
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 2: home runs, if I'm being honest with you, he does

752
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: get the ball in the air, but he doesn't really

753
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 2: pull it that well. So I feel like he is

754
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: still trying to develop into who he is. But I

755
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 2: think these projections are telling us a decent baseline story,

756
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 2: if not maybe being a little bit more aggressive on

757
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 2: the runs. But I think they're underplaying everything else. So

758
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: I'm not sure IFI one hundred percent answered your question here,

759
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: But I think Jackson Merrill is like immensely difficult to

760
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 2: deal with this year. I kind of don't know what

761
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 2: to do with him in fantasy, which is why I'm

762
00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 2: avoiding Joe.

763
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 1: This is the poster bo way, I think for where

764
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,959
Speaker 1: productions can get you in trouble. Last year, the projections

765
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 1: were off the chrut for Merril because he had a

766
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: great rookie season and he was brilliant Rookie of the

767
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: Year quality, all of that stuff, right, But even within that,

768
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: if you look deeper, even in twenty twenty four, just

769
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: that standalone season, his slash against left handed pitching, which

770
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 1: is a good sample size eighty five games too, forty

771
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: batting average, two seventy six OVP three seventy slugging six,

772
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 1: forty six ops. So the red flags were there. Yet

773
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: last year the projections for him were incredibly bullish. This

774
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:43,240
Speaker 1: year they're more in line, which is good considering last

775
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 1: year was a huge disappointment. So what do you make

776
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: of the Jackson Merrill projections being it seemingly a big

777
00:33:48,640 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 1: bounce back for him in twenty twenty six, Are you

778
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 1: buying it?

779
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,479
Speaker 3: I am yeah, I am throwing away last season and

780
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 3: I'm throwing away all of it, Joe, And I'm looking

781
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:58,000
Speaker 3: at what he did in his rookie season and then

782
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 3: pretty much calling it an injury wash out year because

783
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 3: if you go month by month, this poor guy couldn't

784
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 3: go a whole month without dealing with something. It was

785
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 3: a hamstring in April, he got sick in May, he

786
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 3: had a concussion in June, another illness in July, and

787
00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 3: August he hurt his ankle at the end of the season.

788
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: It's like this guy just kept dealing with so many

789
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: different things and yet still if you look below the surface,

790
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 3: the barrel rate actually improved, went up to thirteen percent.

791
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 3: Hard hit rate was about the same. It went down

792
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 3: one point, but no drastic change there. The eggsit velocities

793
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 3: were kind of whatever, eighty nine to seven, one hundred

794
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: and ten max EV. They're fine. But really I'm thinking

795
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,919
Speaker 3: that Meryll just was never able to get going last year.

796
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 3: He dealt with so much stuff. He did end up

797
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 3: missing about fifty games, and I think that we're going

798
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,239
Speaker 3: to see a much closer version to twenty twenty four

799
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 3: Marril than twenty twenty five. I think the steals come back. Personally,

800
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 3: if you're looking at a healthy Marril over a whole season,

801
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 3: he has still even last year while dealing with all

802
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 3: the injuries, eightieth percentile sprint speed. I think he just

803
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 3: was worried, being so young, about adding another potential injury

804
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 3: if he tries to steal a base and twist an

805
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 3: ankle and has another ailment after dealing with so many.

806
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,239
Speaker 3: I think it was more out of an abundance of caution.

807
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 3: I trust the power, I trust the lineup. I think

808
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 3: that the steals. I don't know if we're getting sixteen necessarily,

809
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,879
Speaker 3: but I think double digit stolen bases are gonna come.

810
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 3: And I think that he's a good batting average asset.

811
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,320
Speaker 3: This feels a lot like Boba Schett last year, without

812
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: as much of a track record to build on, the

813
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 3: guy who was going as like a second round pickcause

814
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:20,399
Speaker 3: Jackson Merril last year was like a third round pick

815
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:23,800
Speaker 3: at worst. Injury washout season. We're getting a fifty pick discount.

816
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 3: I'm taking that all day.

817
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can understand the fifty pick. Especially in shallower leagues,

818
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: they take the chance. I'm always more willing. And we

819
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 1: talked about this on our last year too. Shallower leagues

820
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,720
Speaker 1: you can have more risk because the replacement values easier.

821
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: Deeper leagues, that risk can kill you sometimes. All Right,

822
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 1: last weight we're gonna talk about in the hitting side

823
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 1: before he switch gears to pitchers. Is one of the

824
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,440
Speaker 1: toughest things when it comes to projections, right, it's players

825
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: who have never played a day in the big leagues

826
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: but have played professional baseball. So Munataka Morikami of the

827
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: Chicago White Sox, obviously from a power standpoint, pretty darn good.

828
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 1: If you go look at his Japanese league numbers. Here,

829
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 1: looking at a two to seventy hitter, a high on

830
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: base percentage, three ninety four, five point fifty career slugging there,

831
00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,920
Speaker 1: so a lot to like. Now, what does that translate

832
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 1: in terms of Major League Baseball? Well, they're they're projecting

833
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: him ATC for one hundred and thirty three games, twenty

834
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,239
Speaker 1: seven homers, sixty eight run scores, seventy three RBI eight

835
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: stone bases. Now Arico. It's not a great lineup with

836
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: the White Sox. We know that it's gotten a little

837
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: bit better with some of the guys like Kyle Tioch,

838
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 1: you know, Coming of Age and some other pieces you

839
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 1: know going through here. But Maurakami obviously is one of

840
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: these guys where projections is all we really have to

841
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 1: go on them. Do you agree with these strong projections

842
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 1: from Murcami in twenty twenty six being something you would

843
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: invest in.

844
00:36:36,520 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 3: I generally kind of agree with the numbers, but it's

845
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,440
Speaker 3: not going to be something that I'm investing in at all.

846
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 3: This year, I've seen him get pushed up a lot,

847
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 3: and you know, I did a draft with Tim McCloud recently,

848
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 3: who does focus a lot on the Japanese leagues, and

849
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 3: he bumped him up like fifty picks, which does make me,

850
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,439
Speaker 3: you know, a little bit interested at least because Tim

851
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: really covers the NPB a lot. But it's at the

852
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 3: same time, thirty four percent projected strikeout rate thirty two,

853
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,319
Speaker 3: thirty four, thirty seven from the bad X, Like that's

854
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 3: a crazy number. He's gonna hit two hundred or somewhere

855
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 3: in that vicinity. At least, that's what I expect if

856
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,959
Speaker 3: you look at his contact rates in Japan last year,

857
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 3: we're talking about sixty three percent contact rate. That would

858
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 3: be the worst mark in all of Major League Baseball

859
00:37:16,040 --> 00:37:19,479
Speaker 3: last year. Seventeen point three percent swinging strike rate would

860
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,279
Speaker 3: also have been the worst mark in all of Major

861
00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 3: League Baseball last year. So you have to project he's

862
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,479
Speaker 3: gonna get a little bit worse facing a higher level

863
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,240
Speaker 3: of competition, And if contact rate goes down to sixty

864
00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 3: percent with a twenty percent swinging strike rate, he might

865
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: fail to hit for the mendos A line Now, it

866
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: might come with thirty homers and ten steals, but if

867
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 3: I'm getting a sub two hundred batting average, we're looking

868
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 3: at the second coming of O'Neil Cruz here pretty much.

869
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 3: And that's just not something I really want to be

870
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: investing in, especially in not a great lineup. If he

871
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 3: was playing for the Dodgers or something like that, and

872
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: I could bank one hundred runs and ribbies, I'd be

873
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 3: a lot more interested. But in this lineup, it's a

874
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 3: lot more likely to be sixty two runs and sixty

875
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 3: eight ribbies with a two hundred batting average. I can't

876
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:57,359
Speaker 3: do it. In year one I.

877
00:37:57,400 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: Tend to agree with you. Uriko Welsh, where are you at?

878
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 1: I feel like a white Sox kind of hold some

879
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: of these projections back potentially for him.

880
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 2: So this is one of those like soft spots for

881
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 2: me whenever I can like talk to a player and

882
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 2: they tell me something that they're adamantly about, like I

883
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 2: hold it in. And I talked with Anthony k who

884
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 2: pitched against Murakami a bunch in Japan.

885
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 1: Uh.

886
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 2: One of the this is when Murkami was in camp

887
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 2: and I asked him and I said, uh, what do

888
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:27,879
Speaker 2: you think about Murakami? And he goes, He's hitting thirty

889
00:38:27,880 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 2: homers in the majors, no question. I said, there's these

890
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,360
Speaker 2: projections that are out there that are like thirty homers

891
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 2: with a two hundred average. I'm like, how does that work?

892
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 2: And he's like it doesn't. He's hitting thirty homers. And

893
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 2: then I go, what do you think about the Murakami

894
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: can't hit high velocity pitches up high, And he's like

895
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 2: he's like, dude, He's like, I have pitched against him

896
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 2: and like whatever, he said thirty something at bats, like

897
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 2: I've seen him for years, not just here, and he's

898
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: like he is going to hit, and he's going to

899
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 2: hit successfully here. Now that's his teammate, Da Da Da.

900
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 2: You know, like we got to take that for a

901
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,360
Speaker 2: grain of salt. But he's also seen some really good success.

902
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 2: He banged around Jordan Hicks when he was out here,

903
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: high velocity guys, He's kind of taken apart a lot

904
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 2: of the pitchers out here.

905
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 3: Do I think.

906
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: Murakami is gonna have a high batting average? Absolutely not.

907
00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 2: But I do think Murakami is going to absolutely crush

908
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 2: out here, and I think he's gonna hit homers.

909
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: But I think it's close.

910
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:23,400
Speaker 2: It is actually closer. One of the few times I

911
00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 2: am kind of with like the zips and stuff where

912
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,439
Speaker 2: it's like give me two thirty, and I do think

913
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 2: he is gonna hit twenty five to thirty homers. So

914
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: I do buy some of that. So how much do

915
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 2: you want to invest to him? I invest in him.

916
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 2: I don't know. You know, if you're not into the

917
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,200
Speaker 2: lower batting average, I understand it, But that is like

918
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: close to thirty homers. I think you can get pretty

919
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:43,960
Speaker 2: late in a draft. So I buy a lot of

920
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 2: this stuff because I have seen him twice in camp,

921
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 2: because I talked to some players about him. We saw

922
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 2: some good success, you know, in some of the spring training. Like,

923
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of things that are telling

924
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 2: us a decent story. Should he be going inside the

925
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 2: top one hundred or something. No, and of course, but

926
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,959
Speaker 2: he's going so late that I think he is worth

927
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,360
Speaker 2: a risk here. And you've got people that are closer

928
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,839
Speaker 2: to it, to McLoud whatnot, that are bumping him up.

929
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:11,240
Speaker 2: I'm much more interested in Murakami ever since I talked

930
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: with Anthony K about him. So I think the projections

931
00:40:14,120 --> 00:40:15,840
Speaker 2: are on something. But I also don't think the projections

932
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 2: know what to do. That's the other thing. It's like,

933
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,960
Speaker 2: how does a two oh four batting average to a

934
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,680
Speaker 2: six batting average work with thirty one homers? Well, that's

935
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: the batex projection. Obviously we kind of know how that works.

936
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 2: But that seems silly. So something's gonna give. I don't

937
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 2: think any projection is correct right now. It's just what

938
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 2: direction is it going to go. Is he gonna be

939
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 2: worthless or is he gonna be you know, too forty

940
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: hitter with thirty five homers. I'm leaning in the positive

941
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,439
Speaker 2: mind frame for Murkami, all.

942
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,120
Speaker 1: Right, We're gonna move ahead to the pitchers. Before we do,

943
00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:46,279
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956
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957
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958
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961
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:32,360
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962
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: Let's start with Hunter Green of the Cincinnati Reds. Projections

963
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 1: are strong for him, one hundred and sixty seven innings,

964
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 1: two hundred and one strikeouts, just fifty four walks into

965
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: three six six era Welsh. Look, this is not hard

966
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 1: to project here, considering how good he was last season

967
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 1: obviously one hundred and thirty two strikeouts and one hundred

968
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: and seven innings, or he made nineteen starts. This is

969
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 1: just a matter of you were talking about projecting games. Well,

970
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:59,040
Speaker 1: here we go. We're projecting more starts for Hunter Green,

971
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 1: which has not been green. And look at the season

972
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: he's having. Is this this year's Garrett Crochet?

973
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 2: So I kind of think the projections are are wrong

974
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 2: in this space because of the higher era to your point,

975
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 2: exactly to your point, like if he you know, the

976
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 2: k percentage went up of thirty one percent year over year,

977
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 2: and if they're projecting you know, what is this one

978
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 2: hundred and I mean, Jesus, the bat is projecting one

979
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty eight innings. This would be one of

980
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 2: those guys you could take a look at. But the

981
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,200
Speaker 2: thing that I'm getting at is like most of these

982
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 2: are three and a half or higher eras. Most of

983
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: these I don't think are accounting for like that full

984
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,440
Speaker 2: big season. And he's had two straight years of having

985
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 2: a two seven or two seven five or two seven

986
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 2: six ERA with an expected RA that is three point

987
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,600
Speaker 2: zero five or three point zero six. My point is

988
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:51,719
Speaker 2: is like the expected ERA is within a quarter of

989
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: a run, and those are a half of a run

990
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 2: better than the actual projections that are out there. He's

991
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,160
Speaker 2: made some significant moves, He's walking less, striking out more.

992
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 2: Don't love that he gave up more barrels, But you know,

993
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 2: the split finger, I think has just become like this

994
00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:10,640
Speaker 2: dominant thing. I if I can answer the question of

995
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 2: you know, like are the projections on or off here?

996
00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: I think they're off on a Hunter Green, I kind

997
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: of don't want to trust Hunter Green if I'm being

998
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 2: blatantly honest with you, But like, how do we not

999
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 2: like the splitter has made a more of efficient pitcher,

1000
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 2: and he's legitimately to what you said, he's a guy

1001
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 2: that could lead the league in strikeouts. If he were

1002
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:29,600
Speaker 2: to get two hundred innings, like he's going to be

1003
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 2: up in that top Echelan spot, but the projections don't

1004
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:36,240
Speaker 2: tell that because it's one hundred and sixty eight projected innings, which.

1005
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 1: Would still be a rico, a pretty big bounce for

1006
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: a Hunter Green considering some of his other annual totals,

1007
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 1: or are you buying more innings from him and just

1008
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 1: being as simple as that, And obviously last year the

1009
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: productivity was incredible, it was just we need a little

1010
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 1: bit more quantity along with the quality.

1011
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really don't understand how they even get these

1012
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 3: numbers like he's never thrown more than one hundred and

1013
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 3: fifty innings and every single systems calling for more than

1014
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty innings. I really don't get that

1015
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 3: aspect of it. Like Welsh said earlier, you can kind

1016
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 3: of throw away the innings, pitch and the plate appearances

1017
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 3: and kind of do them yourself. If you rely on

1018
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,560
Speaker 3: projections for the rate stats and then do playing time yourself,

1019
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 3: you're gonna have a lot more success than just blindly

1020
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 3: following the systems. At least I think so with Hunter Green,

1021
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,719
Speaker 3: there's a tough eval here because in spite of his

1022
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 3: success the last couple years, he still pitches in Cincinnati,

1023
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 3: and a couple of years ago that was like a

1024
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 3: red line the same way that Coors was the guy

1025
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 3: pitches in Sincy. We can't take him now. Obviously, Hunter

1026
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:29,879
Speaker 3: Green is much more talented than a lot of those

1027
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 3: pitches we're talking about, but still, last year he allowed

1028
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,359
Speaker 3: almost a ten percent barrel rate, forty five percent hard

1029
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 3: hit rate, one point twenty five home or nine in

1030
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 3: that ballpark. That could lead the trouble. Now, the command

1031
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 3: seems a lot better than it used to be, only

1032
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 3: a six percent walk rate. But again going back to

1033
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 3: that whole three year thing, if Hunter Green reverts to

1034
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 3: a nine percent walk rate next year with those home

1035
00:44:48,560 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 3: run troubles, then we could easily see a mid threes era.

1036
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 3: I think that's definitely a possibility. I think that where

1037
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 3: he's going in drafts it makes sense because the whole

1038
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: tier of arms in this range there's a lot of

1039
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 3: risk with all of them. Chris Sale, Hunter Green, Cole

1040
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 3: Reagan's the Gram, Max Fried, They're all risky. They're all

1041
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 3: risky names for different reasons, whether it's health or performance, innings,

1042
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 3: pitch worries, but I think that Hunter Green is probably

1043
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 3: worth the risk as an SP two, and I know

1044
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,640
Speaker 3: that he's being drafted more so in the SP one range.

1045
00:45:16,160 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 3: I would more want to take him if I've already

1046
00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 3: taken a schoobl or a Schemes or a Crochet or

1047
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: a Chris Sanchez, and then I can back him up

1048
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 3: and kind of benefit from him without needing to rely

1049
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 3: on him for one hundred and seventy five innings. And

1050
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 3: then if he does for a one hundred and thirty

1051
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 3: innings as the SP two, then I'm fine with it,

1052
00:45:30,960 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 3: because even in one hundred and seven innings last year,

1053
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:34,959
Speaker 3: I think he was a twenty seventh or twenty eighth

1054
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 3: overall pitcher. I just don't want to rely on him

1055
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 3: to be that anchor ace that I need a ton

1056
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 3: of volume out of.

1057
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 1: All Right, So good discussion there. I want to talk

1058
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,680
Speaker 1: about two players who have projections very close to each other,

1059
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 1: but the ADPs are not. Kyle Bradish right now projected

1060
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: to be an eight win pitcher with a three six

1061
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: one ERA, one hundred and thirty four innings, forty two walks,

1062
00:45:56,600 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty four strikeouts. That's pretty solid look,

1063
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: you know he's working as back from injury last year.

1064
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:02,840
Speaker 1: He did pitch at the end of the year. Everybody

1065
00:46:02,920 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: likes Kyle Bradish no where he's there. Drew Rasmisen another

1066
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 1: guy that a lot of the pitching gurus that we've

1067
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: had discussions with also like ten wins a three sixty

1068
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:14,439
Speaker 1: two era, almost identical, a couple more starts, five more starts,

1069
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 1: So one hundred and fifty three innings but one hundred

1070
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,919
Speaker 1: and forty strikeouts, thirty nine walks. Here's the interesting thing

1071
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: right now in fantasypros dot com. You can see the

1072
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 1: rankings if you go check it out. Drew Rasmisen is

1073
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: the one hundred and sixty six player off the board.

1074
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: Kyle Bradish is the eightieth off the board. So that

1075
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 1: is a massive gap when you're looking at these projections

1076
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: being right on there. So, Joe, maybe this is a

1077
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 1: dumb question, but is rasmisim by far the better investment

1078
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 1: of the two considering the cost.

1079
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,840
Speaker 3: I think that he is, and I really like Bradish,

1080
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 3: but I think people are probably getting a little bit

1081
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 3: ahead of themselves. Again with the innings pitch projections twenty

1082
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 3: twenty forty through thirty nine innings last year thirty two.

1083
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 3: Expecting him to throw one hundred and sixty hundred and

1084
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 3: seventy innings doesn't seem quite right to me. Now he

1085
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 3: has one season of one hundred sixty eight innings and

1086
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. I don't think the Orioles are going

1087
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 3: to play this one carelessly. I think they're probably going

1088
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 3: to slow play him a little bit, similarly to what

1089
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 3: we've seen with Traya Savage this year. The Blue Jays

1090
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 3: are taking it easy with him. They're not going to

1091
00:47:11,080 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 3: rush him. Maybe it is twenty five twenty six starts

1092
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,400
Speaker 3: for Bratish, and they're probably probably be very good starts,

1093
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 3: but they're not going to be to the level that

1094
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 3: we saw the last two seasons when he was pitching.

1095
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,800
Speaker 3: We're talking about like thirty seven percent strikeout rates. Nobody

1096
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 3: has a thirty seven percent strikeout rate. It's not realistic

1097
00:47:26,520 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 3: to expect that he's probably going to be in the

1098
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 3: mid twenties giving you a good whip. Like I trust

1099
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 3: him when he's out there, it's just a matter of

1100
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 3: how many innings I'm going to get now. Similar concerns

1101
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 3: with Rasmussen. He's not a guy who's throwing you two

1102
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 3: hundred innings, but at least he's out there one hundred

1103
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,040
Speaker 3: and fifty innings. Last year twenty three and twenty four

1104
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 3: he did deal with some injuries, but twenty twenty two

1105
00:47:44,520 --> 00:47:46,520
Speaker 3: was one hundred and forty six innings. The thing with him,

1106
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 3: he's always good Drew Rasmussen every single year of his

1107
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,359
Speaker 3: career as a starting pitcher. The ERA is under three

1108
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:55,359
Speaker 3: and the whip is under one point one. There are

1109
00:47:55,400 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 3: more concerns that I have with Bratish, especially considering the price.

1110
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 3: He's like seventy eighty picks more expensive. If you like

1111
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 3: finding into that profile, I agree with you, Joe, just

1112
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:04,439
Speaker 3: take Rasmussen later.

1113
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 1: Well, shwear you about with this, because clearly the projections

1114
00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: are strong for both, but the ADP is nowhere near

1115
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 1: each other.

1116
00:48:12,000 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's an interesting discussion. I mean, Rico

1117
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:17,880
Speaker 2: and I kind of had this online where Joe didn't

1118
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 2: like a player that I liked and was like, why

1119
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,840
Speaker 2: not take this other player later? Which I think is

1120
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:25,040
Speaker 2: always an interesting argument. The only thing I kind of

1121
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 2: come back to sometimes is I kind of think I

1122
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 2: don't love that argument because it's like, then take both,

1123
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,600
Speaker 2: like just looking at players and being like, well, this

1124
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,120
Speaker 2: guy is not worth this because there's a guy that

1125
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:39,000
Speaker 2: could be ninety to ninety five percent later. I think

1126
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: that's kind of a crazy argument. You could just not

1127
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 2: like the guy for the cost, but to be like, well,

1128
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 2: you can't take him because this guy's take all the

1129
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 2: guys that are better. So the same thing I would

1130
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: say here, like, I think you could take Bradish and

1131
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 2: you could take Rasmussen. Now if in this specific situation

1132
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 2: unlike the one we were having, I think I would

1133
00:48:56,520 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: take Rasmussen because I think I think there's better k

1134
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:02,400
Speaker 2: upside with Bratish. But I think there's a lot of

1135
00:49:02,480 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 2: volatility in Bradish's game right now with the injury concerns.

1136
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 2: I don't think they have the depth. By the way,

1137
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: they're not the Dodgers where they have this depth rotation

1138
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:12,759
Speaker 2: where they could just be like hey Kyle, just chill

1139
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 2: out for a little bit, you know, like they're trading

1140
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: away they got rid of like Grayson Rodriguez, Like there's

1141
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 2: just not a I don't think there's immense depth for

1142
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:21,360
Speaker 2: them to do that, but they're probably still going to

1143
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 2: do it. So I think there's some bigger questions to

1144
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:25,760
Speaker 2: make this argument. But I always think it's an interesting

1145
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,399
Speaker 2: argument because to me, when you do the like, well,

1146
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 2: this guy is fifty spots lower, it diminishes the player

1147
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 2: to be like, well, they're just garbage, and it's like, well, no,

1148
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 2: Bradish is still probably I think he's a little bit overpriced,

1149
00:49:38,360 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 2: but I think within the realm of possibility because of

1150
00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:44,680
Speaker 2: the k upside, he still is worth that range. But

1151
00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 2: from a drafting style perspective, I'm probably avoiding his volatility

1152
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 2: and the pretty aggressive projections based off of like two

1153
00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 2: very years small sample sizes for a guy like Di Rasmussen,

1154
00:49:57,400 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 2: who I think you know as wasn't it Pollock that

1155
00:50:00,560 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 2: was on with us was like one of the best

1156
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,359
Speaker 2: fast PALLSI oh yeah, he love yeah. I mean he's

1157
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:07,239
Speaker 2: just like super consistent, he low walk, like he does

1158
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 2: everything really great. But I just wanted to mention the

1159
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:13,800
Speaker 2: whole like versus thing. Sometimes those arguments I think diminish

1160
00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:16,280
Speaker 2: the player that is the higher cost, when it doesn't

1161
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 2: have to be that way, Like you can have both

1162
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 2: guys and like be pretty comfortable.

1163
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: A guy in between both of those ADPs is Michael King,

1164
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:25,760
Speaker 1: who last year had an incomplete A little bit missed

1165
00:50:25,760 --> 00:50:27,799
Speaker 1: some time obviously with injury two years ago another one

1166
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: of our favorite things. And then last year unfortunately he

1167
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 1: didn't quite pan out and only there seventy three innings

1168
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:34,480
Speaker 1: last year, but he did have a three four to

1169
00:50:34,520 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: four ERA one point two zero whip, so it wasn't

1170
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 1: all bad, but obviously it wasn't healthy. The projections well though,

1171
00:50:40,680 --> 00:50:42,840
Speaker 1: when you start to look at them, are suggesting a

1172
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 1: three seven three ERA, one hundred and fifty four innings,

1173
00:50:45,840 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty one strikeouts, and fifty four walks.

1174
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: Would you buy that version of Michael King this year

1175
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:54,600
Speaker 1: coming off the injury, because it looks like the Padres

1176
00:50:54,640 --> 00:50:56,799
Speaker 1: did when they brought him back. So that's the one

1177
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 1: thing to keep sticking in my head about King and

1178
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,480
Speaker 1: his health. If he was good enough for Theres that

1179
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 1: bring him back, it's probably good enough for me to invest.

1180
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:03,799
Speaker 1: But where are you at?

1181
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I've kind of talked about him

1182
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,280
Speaker 2: a decent amount of times that, like, Michael King is

1183
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 2: one of my guys. He's in a really weird situation though,

1184
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,320
Speaker 2: because like he's been in the major since twenty nineteen,

1185
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 2: but he's really only been a starter for like since

1186
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 2: mid twenty twenty three, you know what I mean. So

1187
00:51:20,239 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 2: it's like in when you and you do baseline projections

1188
00:51:23,080 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 2: and stuff like that, you only you had this one

1189
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 2: really great year and then you had this injury plague season.

1190
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: I tend to this is and because of that, this

1191
00:51:31,520 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 2: is one of those things where it's like I kind

1192
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 2: of want to throw out even though the production really

1193
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 2: wasn't bad last year in the time that he had

1194
00:51:38,200 --> 00:51:40,239
Speaker 2: throw out some of the stuff to be like, hey,

1195
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 2: the injury took away while, you know, because he gave

1196
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,200
Speaker 2: up like a ridiculous barrel percentage eleven percent and his

1197
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 2: k's dropped a little bit, but prior to that it

1198
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,720
Speaker 2: was like almost twenty eight percent K percentage sub three walk.

1199
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 2: He's in a great pitching ballpark, great shapes on his pitches,

1200
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 2: Like I think he's in a good spot. There's a

1201
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:01,800
Speaker 2: phenomenal bullpen behind him either way, and Mason Miller to

1202
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 2: close down games defensively. Like I'm into what even though

1203
00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 2: there's like a weird group of guys with some of

1204
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 2: these all stars, Like, I'm into the group that's out there.

1205
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 2: They've got one of the best bullpens in baseball in

1206
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,359
Speaker 2: one of the best hitter friendly or pitcher friendly environments

1207
00:52:17,360 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 2: that I'm a big buyer back in on Michael King

1208
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: with him healthy this year.

1209
00:52:21,680 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 1: Michael King I think has a bigger upside than the

1210
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 1: other two pitchers we just discussed, and the cost is

1211
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 1: right in between the two of them, Rasmisin and Bradish.

1212
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 1: So I like Michael King the most. I get it.

1213
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 1: He has a little bit more potential downside because he

1214
00:52:35,080 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 1: was coming off mostly injured twenty twenty five, Joe, But

1215
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 1: where do you use dan on Michael King.

1216
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: I've actually drafted him a few times this year as

1217
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 3: my SP four. I like the general range. Now he's

1218
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 3: kind of been getting a little bit more expensive. I

1219
00:52:48,640 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 3: was getting him more in like the one forty ish

1220
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,319
Speaker 3: type of range. Just looking at the recent ADP, we're

1221
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 3: looking at like one twenty five, and you know, it's

1222
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 3: still it's not cost prohibitive yet. I think if he

1223
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 3: got inside the top one hundred than it might be.

1224
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 3: But I trust him, you know. I was initially skeptical

1225
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 3: about Michael King following the half season pitching for the Yankees,

1226
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: not even like a third of the season starting for

1227
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,359
Speaker 3: the Yankees. I was kind of skeptical heading into twenty four.

1228
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:14,959
Speaker 3: I bought in a little bit last year, but last

1229
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:17,160
Speaker 3: year was just derailed by the injury, and I think

1230
00:53:17,200 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 3: that everything well shed still holds true. The park is good,

1231
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,279
Speaker 3: the stuff is good, the bullpen behind him is good.

1232
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 3: So you could probably expect close to a repeat of

1233
00:53:24,800 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 3: those thirteen wins from a couple of years ago. If

1234
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 3: he's able to stay healthy for the whole season, at

1235
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:31,120
Speaker 3: least double digit wins should be your expectation. And I

1236
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 3: think those ratios are going to be pretty good. Are

1237
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:34,560
Speaker 3: the strike cooats going to be all the way back

1238
00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 3: into the high twenties, Maybe not, but even mid twenties.

1239
00:53:37,520 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 3: If he's a twenty five percent strikeout rate mid threes

1240
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,680
Speaker 3: ERA won twenty whip. I think most people are fine

1241
00:53:42,680 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 3: with that as their fourth sp And that's like a

1242
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 3: fifteen team context. I play a lot of fifteen team leagues.

1243
00:53:46,840 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 3: That's a twelve team league. He's probably your fifth or

1244
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 3: sixth starting pitcher, depending on how you build your team.

1245
00:53:51,200 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's throw a reliever out there too to

1246
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 1: close the show. Griffin Jacks Tampa Bay Rays three ZHO

1247
00:53:57,840 --> 00:54:01,840
Speaker 1: nine ERA projected right now over six games, sixty five innings,

1248
00:54:02,200 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: just eighteen walks but eighty three strikeouts. Now they projected

1249
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 1: him for fifteen saves because right now it's a situation

1250
00:54:07,840 --> 00:54:11,480
Speaker 1: that's in flux. But edwin Uceta has had a cranky shoulder.

1251
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:14,200
Speaker 1: He already took an injection in that shoulder, and we

1252
00:54:14,280 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 1: haven't even crossed barely the first week of March. So

1253
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 1: to me, Joe, this is an interesting projection because you're

1254
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 1: looking at Jackson, meane, this flamethrowing kind of guy. If

1255
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 1: he should get the job early because you said is

1256
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 1: not quite ready and he's just dominant, I don't see

1257
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,800
Speaker 1: any reason to go away from him. And to me,

1258
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 1: this is the kind of league winning scenario where you

1259
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 1: get a guy like you got Chapman last year for free.

1260
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: If you can get Griffin Jackson the cheap, that is

1261
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 1: a huge win potentially if he ends up with thirty

1262
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: saves instead of fifteen, which again I understand why they're

1263
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: not projecting that, but if we want to look ahead

1264
00:54:45,320 --> 00:54:47,319
Speaker 1: to what's actually going on in reality in terms of

1265
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 1: the guys that he's competing with, health is a big

1266
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:51,840
Speaker 1: deal right now in that Tampa bullpen.

1267
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I initially wanted to be in and I was

1268
00:54:55,560 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 3: doing an auction the night that you said, I got

1269
00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 3: hurt and didn't realize and could have had a cheap

1270
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:01,560
Speaker 3: Griffin Jackson did take him because I wasn't staying up

1271
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 3: on the news. So read those blurb feeds. Everybody, make

1272
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 3: sure you're staying up on the news. But I'd missed

1273
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,680
Speaker 3: out on that. But what we've seen over the last

1274
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:10,880
Speaker 3: couple of weeks now since, is that Griffin Jack's price

1275
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:13,880
Speaker 3: has gone up. I wouldn't say exponentially, but you were

1276
00:55:13,920 --> 00:55:15,799
Speaker 3: getting him like in the mid two hundreds a lot

1277
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 3: of the time, and I'm seeing the highest he's gone

1278
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:19,759
Speaker 3: as of late. It's picked ninety three. That was a

1279
00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:22,600
Speaker 3: February twenty second draft ninety three for a guy who

1280
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 3: might not even have the job, who pitches for a

1281
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:29,320
Speaker 3: team that won't necessarily declare a closer like Cash. Sometimes

1282
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 3: you will, sometimes you won't. Fairbanks they've had for the

1283
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 3: last few years, but Fairbanks wasn't even guaranteed every save

1284
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 3: while he was there. So paying the rising price on

1285
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 3: Jack's doesn't seem right with me, especially because you said.

1286
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:43,640
Speaker 3: The most recent report I saw on you said it

1287
00:55:43,680 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 3: was that his shoulder feels pretty good after a cordazone injection.

1288
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 3: He's not sure about Opening Day, and this time of year,

1289
00:55:49,800 --> 00:55:52,480
Speaker 3: if you have a shoulder arm injury, things are probably

1290
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 3: not going to go well. But who the hell, though

1291
00:55:54,480 --> 00:55:57,040
Speaker 3: is we can't predict injuries very well. Maybe he's fine.

1292
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 3: Maybe Kevin Cash wants to mix in both of them.

1293
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 3: If Jacks was cheaper, then I'd still be all in

1294
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 3: here because the skill set is phenomenal. I think the

1295
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 3: skill set for both of them is phenomenal. But what

1296
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:08,799
Speaker 3: I'm kind of thinking about doing is taking a couple

1297
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 3: Edwin you shot a saries shares because he's going to

1298
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 3: pick three fifty. Recently, Jacks is like one twenty on

1299
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 3: average one thirty. I might just buy the cheaper guy

1300
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:17,920
Speaker 3: because these bullpens, there's a lot of them in the

1301
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:19,880
Speaker 3: league that are just so frustrating, And I'm kind of

1302
00:56:19,920 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 3: on the Joey p wavelength of just take the cheaper

1303
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 3: guy and hope that it works out.

1304
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 1: That's fair. I would also say this the leagues that

1305
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 1: you're drafting in the NFBC stuff and some of the

1306
00:56:29,239 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 1: different expert leagues very different Welsh I think in the

1307
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 1: casual leagues, Griffin Jacks because he pitches for the Rays,

1308
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: and because it's a bullpen by committee and a lot

1309
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:39,880
Speaker 1: of people just you know, even people who love fantasy

1310
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,800
Speaker 1: baseball bullpens, that one thing, it just kind of falls

1311
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 1: by the ways out a little bit for a lot

1312
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:45,480
Speaker 1: of people. I still think it's going to be a

1313
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:49,160
Speaker 1: value in most casual drafts and the projections here. I

1314
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 1: think the upside is phenomenal if you can get him there.

1315
00:56:52,360 --> 00:56:54,399
Speaker 2: This But this is like one of those things though

1316
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 2: that it's like it can't you want to look at

1317
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 2: the skill sets, it can't fully predict like is he

1318
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 2: gonna get the saves?

1319
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 1: Is he not?

1320
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,560
Speaker 2: Like one hundred percent? Understand why the projections are just

1321
00:57:04,920 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 2: one foot in, one foot out, just because there's a

1322
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 2: couple guys, but also because this team has gone to committees.

1323
00:57:11,080 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 2: I also think if he's really good and this team,

1324
00:57:13,880 --> 00:57:15,880
Speaker 2: you know, it's a very competitive division, if they're not

1325
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 2: in it, they could look to trade Griffin Jackson. Then

1326
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 2: all of a sudden, he's a setup guy somewhere. So

1327
00:57:20,800 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 2: I think the skill set is the thing that you're

1328
00:57:22,680 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 2: banking on and you're just hoping you're right. We do

1329
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 2: this all the time. You're like, hey, look thirty five

1330
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:29,920
Speaker 2: percent k percentage. Hopefully he's going to get the opportunities.

1331
00:57:29,960 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 2: The other guy's kind of banged up. So I'm with

1332
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 2: a I'll tell you I got a different guy if

1333
00:57:34,320 --> 00:57:35,920
Speaker 2: I could just throw them at you real quick. You

1334
00:57:35,960 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 2: want a guy that I think fits even a better

1335
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 2: mold of this idea is Robert Swarrez. Robert Sworez, Oh

1336
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 2: Brave is one of those.

1337
00:57:44,520 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 1: How many drafts have we done? We're all like, yeah,

1338
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take Robert Swarez at the end because

1339
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:48,840
Speaker 1: I think he takes over a glace.

1340
00:57:48,960 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, but that's the point of this is the projections

1341
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 2: have him at eight saves on at or I'm sorry,

1342
00:57:54,160 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 2: eleven on bat x bat and ATC at eleven. But

1343
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 2: what it's not accounting for is it win ryssel Iglasias

1344
00:58:01,200 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 2: blows up a few games. Robert Swarz also looked amazing.

1345
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 2: You want to look and focus on a player that

1346
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 2: isn't getting the love based off of projections, it's Robert

1347
00:58:10,320 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 2: Swarrez because I think he has a legitimate opportunity to

1348
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,440
Speaker 2: take that job, and he could save thirty plus games

1349
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 2: for the Braves, and I think he's a better option.

1350
00:58:17,880 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 2: And I mean they spent the money on the better option,

1351
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 2: the Rys l Iglesias. But he's one of those guys.

1352
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 2: I don't know where he is relative to Griffin Jacks

1353
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 2: right now, but in a lot of those big competitive

1354
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,919
Speaker 2: leagues people are speculating, but you're gonna have Jacks going

1355
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 2: ahead of swars in those spots because Jacks has more

1356
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 2: perceivable save options. Right now, Swarz is a guy would

1357
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,000
Speaker 2: be taking at the back end of every single draft

1358
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:42,000
Speaker 2: right now because if he were given the gig, go

1359
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:45,600
Speaker 2: look at his projections. You know his bread the guy is.

1360
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 1: Two to three, Jacks is two twenty five.

1361
00:58:48,280 --> 00:58:51,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, so right near each other. Soors has saved seventy

1362
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 2: six games over the last.

1363
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: Has also got a three year contract iglaciers as a

1364
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:57,480
Speaker 1: one year deal right now, So I mean, look at

1365
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 1: the long term investment. Great discussion here from everyboy. We

1366
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 1: love to hear from you in the YouTube channel. Subscribe

1367
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: to the channel. You could win the big trophy from

1368
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 1: Trophy Smack when you do. When you subscribe. With trying

1369
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 1: to get to thirty thousand subscribers this year, you can

1370
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:10,440
Speaker 1: help us do it. So subscribe to the channel on

1371
00:59:10,480 --> 00:59:12,880
Speaker 1: YouTube and drop your comments below too. So you can

1372
00:59:12,920 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 1: win and let us know who are your favorite projection

1373
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 1: guys here or somebody we talked about. Do you agree

1374
00:59:18,280 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 1: disagree on Michael King on Griffin Jacks on any of

1375
00:59:21,280 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 1: the hitters, Jackson Merrill we discussed, so again, drop your

1376
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: comments below. Great stuff from the boys as always, and

1377
00:59:27,040 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: of course stay with us because we're gonna get you

1378
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 1: ready for all of your fantasy baseball leagues this year.

1379
00:59:31,480 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, but the story of the

1380
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:34,800
Speaker 1: game goes on for the Welsh and Joe Rico I'm

1381
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for

1382
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 1: listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you

1383
00:59:41,280 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 1: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

1384
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:47,080
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1385
00:59:47,320 --> 00:59:50,880
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1386
00:59:51,000 --> 00:59:53,680
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1387
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:55,280
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