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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from the growing in so speak, we're sitting.

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Speaker 4: It's a catch toto.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to winning. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kaban you want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway.

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Speaker 3: Hello, and welcome to another episode of strong Side Fridays

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Speaker 3: here on the Action Network podcast. I'm your host, Brandon

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Speaker 3: Anderson here with Rahem Palmer, and we are getting you

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Speaker 3: ready for Championship Sunday. And boy, if this lives up

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Speaker 3: to even half of what we got on last weekend,

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Speaker 3: that was like championship weekend and then some Rahiem, do

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Speaker 3: you think that we have even a shot at getting

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Speaker 3: anything close to that? This weekend?

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Speaker 1: You got to Cincinnati Bengals playing the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Those two teams have already played an exciting football game

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Speaker 1: this year. The Rams and the forty nine Ers are

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Speaker 1: division rivalries, third time playing this year. So I think

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get We're in for a weekend of exciting

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Speaker 1: football and I can't wait to see it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm excited to watch Championship Sunday is always a

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Speaker 3: good one. I think we'll get at least one good game.

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Speaker 3: I have a feeling we're gonna get one blow out.

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Speaker 3: I don't know which one, but you know, it's hard

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Speaker 3: to get that plastic of a Sunday two weekends in

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Speaker 3: a row. But we'll see, we'll see. It's been a

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Speaker 3: very parody driven year, so that leads to some fun

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Speaker 3: games and close finishes, and we fell a lot of

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Speaker 3: those from these teams. So we're gonna do both games.

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Speaker 3: That's basically it today. We're just hitting the games. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna talk a little bit at the end. You know,

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Speaker 3: Verhem and I both have been on forty nine ers

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Speaker 3: futures and we are right on the precipice now getting

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Speaker 3: a lot of questions from you all about what do

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Speaker 3: we do with our futures? Do we have do we

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Speaker 3: ride them out? We're gonna talk about that a little

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Speaker 3: bit as we wrap up as well. Of course, as always,

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Speaker 3: odds today are from MGM, the official odds provider of

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Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. And that's about it. Let's get

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Speaker 3: down to business and pick our first game.

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Speaker 4: Let's get down.

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Speaker 3: Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 4: So let's get down. Let's get down to business.

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Speaker 3: Let's get down. We start out in Kansas City in Arrowhead.

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Speaker 3: The Cincinnati Bengals head to Kansas City. That matchup you

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Speaker 3: talked about last week was the match we talked about earlier,

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Speaker 3: was in Cincinnati in week seventeen. This one's in Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs are seven and a half point favorites right now,

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Speaker 3: seven at mini books, so we'll see where this one

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Speaker 3: ends up. The total is at fifty four and a half.

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Speaker 3: So I know we're gonna talk about the total a

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Speaker 3: little bit, but I'm gonna start with that week seventeen game.

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Speaker 3: So the Bengals won thirty four to thirty one. Very

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Speaker 3: much a tale of two halves sort of game. Chiefs

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Speaker 3: came out early, had the comfortable lead, they led by

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Speaker 3: fourteen three times in the first half. Bengals come all

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Speaker 3: the way back steal the win. That game was earlier

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Speaker 3: this month. We don't normally get these rematches so close

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Speaker 3: to one another. What's your takeaway from that game and

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Speaker 3: how much should what happened that game impact what we

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Speaker 3: think here?

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs defense really hasn't improved. We came into that

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Speaker 1: game thinking that the Chiefs defense was it was absolutely

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Speaker 1: dominant and one of the best defenses in the league

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Speaker 1: over the last nine weeks of the season. But when

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Speaker 1: you look at the Chiefs, who have they played. They

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Speaker 1: played the Giants, they played the Steelers, they played the

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Speaker 1: Packers without Aaron Rodgers. They had played the Raiders twice,

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Speaker 1: the Broncos twice, they played the Cowboys, and we all

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Speaker 1: know that since Dak Prescott's injury, they were never the same.

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Speaker 1: So they came into that game coming off beating the

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Speaker 1: Steelers thirty six to ten, and they came back against

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, but the Chargers were the best offense they

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Speaker 1: had faced on that stretch. So when the Bengals went

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Speaker 1: out there and just kind of carved this team up

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Speaker 1: offensively with Joe broken for four and forty six yards

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Speaker 1: four touchdowns and Jamar Chase going for eleven receptions in

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Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty six yards for three touchdowns, we

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Speaker 1: kind of saw.

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Speaker 4: The Chiefs get exposed defensively.

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Speaker 3: We did, and it definitely was not what I expected

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Speaker 3: that game. What I expected was the first half. I

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Speaker 3: thought that the Bengals, I didn't even know that they

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Speaker 3: were a playoff team. I was betting on teams like

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Speaker 3: the Steelers to win the division and get that last

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Speaker 3: playoff spot in place of the Bengals, because I thought

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Speaker 3: they would lose that game. Early on, it looked like

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Speaker 3: they were the Chiefs were in control, the Bengals defense

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Speaker 3: was not getting the job done, and then things really flipped.

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Speaker 3: But as I went back and kind of studied that

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Speaker 3: game this week, I initially kind of felt like you

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Speaker 3: did take away from that game that I don't know

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Speaker 3: if I would say exposed. That seems like a little

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Speaker 3: bit a little too much for me. The Chiefs defense

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Speaker 3: has been good, but looking back, I feel like this

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Speaker 3: game went, you know, top two or three percentile outcome

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Speaker 3: of what it have for Cincinnati and that they had

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Speaker 3: so many things go right their way just to barely

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Speaker 3: eke out this not miraculous victory. We're not talking Chiefs

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Speaker 3: bills here, but it really really shouldn't have won the game.

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Speaker 3: So you mentioned the lines for Burrow and Chase monster

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Speaker 3: monster games and yardage. Two of those touchdowns for Jamar

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Speaker 3: Chase came on just one a huge bomb over the top.

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Speaker 3: You know I was gonna get that one, And then

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Speaker 3: another one where it was really just an underpass that

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Speaker 3: Chase just broke through the entire defense. And Jamar Chase

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Speaker 3: is great, but he's not Tyreek Khill. He's not gonna

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Speaker 3: break that one too often. So last game when they played,

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow had two hundred and sixty four yards after

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Speaker 3: the catch on his passes. That's almost so many yards

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Speaker 3: as Mahomes had the entire game. Kelsey and Tyreek Hill

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Speaker 3: had only sixty five yards and seventeen targets, so they

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Speaker 3: basically got completely shut down. Chase and Higgins were winning

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Speaker 3: all game on man. The three of those two picked

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Speaker 3: up three pass interfearing penalties and another penalty. We talked

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Speaker 3: after the game too, the Chiefs were just crushed by

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Speaker 3: penalties in that game. You and I were texting earlier.

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Speaker 3: Right before halftime, there was a kickoff return. The Bengals

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Speaker 3: got a field goal, kicked it back off under a

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Speaker 3: minute left, and the Chiefs returned it back for a

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Speaker 3: touchdown that would have blown it right back open again,

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Speaker 3: and he got called back on a holding penalty. The

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Speaker 3: Chiefs special teams has been really good. They did another

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Speaker 3: big kick return called back by a penalty, then another

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Speaker 3: twenty nine yard point return that stood in that game,

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow had zero point sixty one epa per play.

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Speaker 3: That is an outlandishly good number for comparison. Remember last week,

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Speaker 3: Mahomes and Josh Allen zero point five to one epa

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Speaker 3: per play. So for the Bengals to win, they had

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Speaker 3: to have Joe Burrow play better than the two guys

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Speaker 3: we just saw last weekend. Jamar Chase have like the

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Speaker 3: receiving game of the year, all sorts of penalty locked,

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Speaker 3: that wild ending and all of that just for the

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Speaker 3: Bengals barely to get bigh As I studied that this week,

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Speaker 3: that made me really feel like the Chiefs were in

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Speaker 3: control here.

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Speaker 1: No I thought that initially, but you do have to

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Speaker 1: look at the fact that Mahomes had a couple of

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Speaker 1: interceptible passes that the Bengals.

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Speaker 4: Drop at the end of the day.

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Speaker 1: It's like, when you have that many penalties in terms

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Speaker 1: of pass interference penalties as the Chiefs had, it says

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Speaker 1: something about your inability to cover the opposing teams wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: And it wasn't just Jamar Chase, it was boy this game.

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Speaker 1: It closed it. Bengals plus three and a half, we're

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Speaker 1: sitting at seven and a half now seven consensus. To me,

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Speaker 1: that feels like an overad adjustment based on what we

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Speaker 1: saw the first game, and we know that the Bengals

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Speaker 1: actually came out slow, so imagine if they don't come

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Speaker 1: out slow. I just think these teams are a lot

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Speaker 1: closer than what I thought they were back in week

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Speaker 1: seventeen when I hated cap this matchup.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the scary thing. I mean, that's always the

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Speaker 3: scary thing with taking a touchdown or more favorite, is

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Speaker 3: you just football is hard. It's hard to win by

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Speaker 3: a lot, and it's one thing to be the better

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Speaker 3: team and to need to win by touchdown or more.

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Speaker 3: But we've seen it with the Chiefs. How many playoff

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Speaker 3: games we've seen in Kansas City come out a little flat,

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Speaker 3: immediately get behind. And now if you give up an

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Speaker 3: opening touchdown to the Bengals, you don't just have to

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Speaker 3: have the Chiefs win by seven. You've got a fourteen

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Speaker 3: point script that you've got to flip and that's just

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Speaker 3: to possibly push. If you're on a minus seven, you

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Speaker 3: might need three scores to take the lead. So that's

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Speaker 3: the scary part, just because when you're betting on the

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Speaker 3: big favorite, if you do start a little slow. If

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Speaker 3: the Bengals look good early, or get that one Fluke touchdown,

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Speaker 3: the one Jamar Chase broken play, whatever it is, it's

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Speaker 3: a lot of ground to make up. Counterpoint, it's Patrick Mahomes.

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Speaker 3: He can do that in like three minutes. He's done

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Speaker 3: that in most of the playoff games. Even in these

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Speaker 3: games where they've fallen behind, they're coming back and winning

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Speaker 3: covering in most cases anyway. So I got like the

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Speaker 3: devil and angel on my shoulder going back and forth

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Speaker 3: on those things. So looking at the matchup of these

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Speaker 3: two teams, I don't necessarily agree with you that these

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Speaker 3: teams are as close as you're saying they are. So

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Speaker 3: what do you think the Bengals are better at than

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs right now?

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Speaker 1: I think they're a better defense. I mean, like this

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Speaker 1: Chiefs defense at the started a year, we were calling

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Speaker 1: them one of the worst in the league, and then

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Speaker 1: they play a bunch of quarterbacks who aren't even in

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Speaker 1: the top ten at EPA for play, and all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden we're looking at them like a resurgent defense.

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Speaker 4: So to me, I just don't think that they're great

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Speaker 4: defensively at all.

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Speaker 1: Like Buffalo carved them up like, and I know it's Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: but like they had no prayers of stopping Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think they're going to have a chance

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Speaker 1: to stop in the Bengals next week.

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Speaker 4: I don't so. Look, all I'm saying is seven is

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Speaker 4: too much.

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Speaker 1: If the line closed at three and a half in Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: seven is too much because in today's NFL, we all

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Speaker 1: know home foot advantage doesn't mean that much. Home favorites

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Speaker 1: are twenty seven and twenty six against the spreads, its

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety. In the championship round, favorites of seven plus

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Speaker 1: are just twelve and fourteen against the spread and twenty

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Speaker 1: and six straight up. Yes, I think the Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: the better team, but I just don't think there're seven

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Speaker 1: points better at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's tough because that line hit the line being

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Speaker 3: at seven or seven and a half, just that little

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Speaker 3: half point is enough to make me hilt a little

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Speaker 3: bit to one side or a little bit to the

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Speaker 3: other side. You know, Initially my read on this game

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Speaker 3: was very much aligned with you. This is I think

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Speaker 3: maybe our first playoff game we're kind of battling. Had

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Speaker 3: to head a little bit here in my initial write

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Speaker 3: up early in the week, I picked the Bengals at

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Speaker 3: seven and a half. If it's still a seven and

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Speaker 3: a half, maybe it's still the Bengals to pick. I

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Speaker 3: think it might not, just being a stay away from me.

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Speaker 3: If you can get the seven, I don't think we're

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Speaker 3: gonna get under seven again. We got that right when

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Speaker 3: it opened. That's not coming back. But at the seven

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Speaker 3: is that little key number. And even the Patrick Mahomes trends,

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Speaker 3: they change from seven and below to seven and a

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Speaker 3: half above, and that little key number, that half a

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Speaker 3: point makes a big difference. I just I don't know

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Speaker 3: that the Bengals are really better at much of anything.

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Speaker 3: The offense clearly is not better. They can run the

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Speaker 3: ball a little better, but I think to a detriment,

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Speaker 3: we've talked a lot about how they've over committed to

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Speaker 3: the run game, and even looking back again, they did

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Speaker 3: that a lot against the Chiefs. I think there's a serious,

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Speaker 3: huge coaching mismatch here. Anyone would agree with that. Andy

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Speaker 3: Reid and Zach Taylor, and Zach Taylor has been playing

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Speaker 3: conservative ball that works against the Raiders and the Titans.

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Speaker 3: It's not going to cut the mustard against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: You can't keep running the ball on these early downs

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Speaker 3: and setting you up for late down in a hole.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs defense by DVA twentieth on first down, twenty

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Speaker 3: seventh on second down, but tenth on late downs. They're

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Speaker 3: actually a decent defense on late downs and good this season.

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Speaker 3: They've been a top ten defense the last eight weeks

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Speaker 3: compared to thirty first before that. And we know the

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Speaker 3: Bengals all line can't protect. Chris Jones had a couple

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Speaker 3: of sacks last game against the Bengals. The Chiefs had

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Speaker 3: four sacks. I think one thing will see different. I

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Speaker 3: hope we'll see different as a possible Chiefs backer Des

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Speaker 3: Bagnolo was really aggressive last game, a lot of blitzing.

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Speaker 3: You can't blitz Joe Burrow. He is carving up the

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Speaker 3: blitz and you're leaving your corners on an island, and

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Speaker 3: Burrow and Chase were lighting that up. I think the

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Speaker 3: d line can get home without blitzing. And if the

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Speaker 3: Bengals get these negative scripts, and if the defense is

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Speaker 3: even just as good as the Chiefs but not significantly better,

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Speaker 3: we know the special teams for the Chiefs are great.

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Speaker 3: We know the Chiefs coaching is awesome. I just don't

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Speaker 3: know where the edge is. And I was ready to say,

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Speaker 3: well seven and a half, it's just too much. The

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Speaker 3: Bengals are going to score. The back door will be open.

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Speaker 3: We saw how much they score. But the Bengals just

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Speaker 3: have a lot of flaws. They're thirty first in defense

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Speaker 3: on first down to twenty ninth in offense DVLA in

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Speaker 3: the first quarter, twenty eighth and the second quarter defensively.

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Speaker 3: I just think the Chiefs are a much better team.

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Speaker 3: And if I can get the seven, I think I'm

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Speaker 3: going to lay the seven here.

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Speaker 1: I mean, for me, the play that I think is

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Speaker 1: the one that I've really found it ages. I like

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Speaker 1: the over, like the over fifty three and a half

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Speaker 1: I played that. I think it's up to fifty four

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Speaker 1: and a half. I still would played up to fifty five.

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Speaker 1: Since nineteen ninety Championship game, over start thirty seven to

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Speaker 1: twenty three and two. That's sixty one point seven eight

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Speaker 1: and two to over in the last five years. But

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Speaker 1: look looking at these two teams, they put up nearly

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Speaker 1: nine hundred yards of offense in the last time that

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Speaker 1: they played, and both teams were over seven yards per past.

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Speaker 1: I just don't see any prayer of these teams stopping

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Speaker 1: each other. And when you look at the Chiefs, they

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Speaker 1: put up over thirty points at pretty much every single

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Speaker 1: home playoff game that they've ever played. And we all

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Speaker 1: know when it comes to the Bengals, they played just

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Speaker 1: the fourteen Franks schedule of opposing offenses. And this is

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Speaker 1: a team that's given up thirty four points to the Jets,

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Speaker 1: forty one points to Baker Mayfield and the Browns. Last

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Speaker 1: week against the Titans, they gave up almost eight point

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Speaker 1: five yards pass and they almost gave up seven yards

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Speaker 1: per play, but Ryan Tannehill turned the ball over at will.

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Speaker 1: When you look at the game against the Raiders, the

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Speaker 1: Bengals went out there and pretty much let the They

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Speaker 1: let the Raiders into the red zone five to six times.

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Speaker 4: They just couldn't score touchdowns.

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Speaker 1: We know the Chiefs are going to score touchdowns in

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Speaker 1: this one, and I just don't I don't have a

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Speaker 1: ton of.

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Speaker 4: Respect for this Chiefs defense.

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Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have issues with the Bengals offense

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Speaker 1: as well. And look, when you look at Pro Football Focus,

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow is dominant under pressure. He actually has a

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Speaker 1: higher passer rating under pressure than Patrick Mahomes. He is

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Speaker 1: ninety one point one passer rating under pressure. Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: has just a seventy five point two passer rating under

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Speaker 1: pressure when his pocket is clean. Joe Burrow has one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirteen passer rate. So Joe Burrow has just

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Speaker 1: been dominant. So I think you have these two quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in this game, in this spot, this is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a high scoring game.

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Speaker 3: I'm going over the overcase makes a lot of sense.

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Speaker 3: I'm probably not gonna play the full game over, but

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Speaker 3: I'm going to zoom in. I'm taking the second quarter

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Speaker 3: over over sixteen and a half in the second quarter.

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Speaker 3: Basically everything you just said, I agree with all of it.

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Speaker 3: I don't trust the defenses here, I trust the points.

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Speaker 3: I think that we could get some emotional letdown for

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Speaker 3: both these teams after tough wins last week, to get

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Speaker 3: a slow start, but second quarter defense. If you look

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Speaker 3: at Dvoa, Bengals are twenty eighth and second quarter defense

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Speaker 3: and the Chiefs are thirty four, So that's two of

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Speaker 3: the bottom five second quarter defenses in the league. I

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Speaker 3: think that maybe we get a slow start, but then

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Speaker 3: the points start to really flow in. Bengals offense has

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Speaker 3: really good second quarter numbers too, and we know the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs will kind of get some hurry up and get going.

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Speaker 3: I'm with you on the over. I'm just zooming in

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Speaker 3: on the second quarter over.

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Speaker 4: If you want to zoom in one more time.

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Speaker 1: Another way to play the Chiefs in this matchup is

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Speaker 1: to play the Chiefs team total over thirty one. Like

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Speaker 1: I said before, they score over thirty one in every

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Speaker 1: single home playoff game. So to me, if they're going

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Speaker 1: to cover it at seven, they're probably going to put

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Speaker 1: up over thirty one points.

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Speaker 4: So that's another angle I'm looking at.

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Speaker 3: I like that. That makes a lot of sense to me.

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Speaker 3: A couple other trends to note here. In the conference

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Speaker 3: championships since two thousand and four, favorites of more than

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Speaker 3: a field goal are fifteen to eight against the spread,

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Speaker 3: so that's the sixty five percent cover rate. Those teams

338
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Speaker 3: are nineteen and four straight up, including teams that played

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Speaker 3: in the season and lost that matchup are six and

340
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Speaker 3: two against the spread as favorites in the rematch in

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. So I just the numbers say that at

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Speaker 3: this point of the season, when we get to this stage.

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Speaker 3: If if we know a team is a lot better,

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Speaker 3: that team usually proves itself to be a lot better.

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Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes lifetime in the playoffs seven and three against

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Speaker 3: the spread. We know the three he lost the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: he lost the overtime game to the Patriots and the

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Speaker 3: conference championship, and then then then they didn't cover in

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Speaker 3: that Browns game where he got hurt. So basically, to

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Speaker 3: beat Patrick Mahomes and cover in the playoffs at this point,

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Speaker 3: you either need to have no offensive line in the

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Speaker 3: super Bowl with the crazy talent Tampa had, or you

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Speaker 3: need that that Patriots overtime, or you need to get hurt.

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Speaker 1: You Tom Brady pretty much, I mean and his Brazilian

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Speaker 1: wife's juju.

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Speaker 3: Which exactly so. So for me, that's why I'm switching.

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Speaker 3: If I get the seven, I'm gonna I'm gonna tentatively

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Speaker 3: take the Chiefs minus seven. I think it's a great

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Speaker 3: spot for teaser. You mentioned that. I just think the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs get this win. So if for that is seven,

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Speaker 3: you get this down to one, I think it's a

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Speaker 3: good spot there. We like the over second quarter. Over

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Speaker 3: wrapping this one up, Let's say that as we record

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Speaker 3: this Sunday night, the Bengals have won the game. Give me,

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Speaker 3: give me the twenty second. What's the reaction. Why did

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Speaker 3: the Bengals win this game? What happened?

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions and no, basically, Patrick Mahomes

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Speaker 1: threw one interception. And we have a game similar to

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Speaker 1: last week where pretty much the last team with the

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Speaker 1: ball wins.

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Speaker 3: And that's the script.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I think like last week, we pretty much knew

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Speaker 1: that if if the Bills have the ball last, they're

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Speaker 1: going to win. If the Chiefs have the ball last,

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Speaker 1: they're going to win. And Patrick Mahomes has had some

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Speaker 1: rough turnovers this year, and he could ease turn the

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Speaker 1: ball over and get the Bengals an exit possession and

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Speaker 1: that'll be enough to do it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's the script. I just can't quite

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Speaker 3: get there putting the Bengals in the same group as

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Speaker 3: the Bills. I know what the Bills just did. I

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Speaker 3: know they did to this defense. I can't quite put

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Speaker 3: Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow in with what Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: just said, but maybe they will. I'm excited to watch

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Speaker 3: this one. I think we're gonna have fireworks. We like

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Speaker 3: our overs there, let's hear a quick word from our

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Speaker 3: sponsor and get to the NFC Championship.

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Speaker 2: to the show.

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Speaker 3: All right. That NFC second game, San Francisco forty nine ers,

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Speaker 3: our San Francisco forty nine ers. They're making us a

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Speaker 3: lot of money these days. They had to Los Angeles

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Speaker 3: to take on the Rams. The Rams are at three

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Speaker 3: and a half point favorites. They've basically been there the

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Speaker 3: entire week. We're at forty five and a half on

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Speaker 3: the total Rahim, we've been smashing the Niners for weeks now,

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Speaker 3: we talked them up earlier this week. Has anything changed?

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Speaker 3: Are you still in on the forty nine ers?

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Speaker 4: Still land on the forty nine ers?

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Speaker 1: And first things first, before we get into this game,

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Speaker 1: you know you're gonna hear all week about how it's

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Speaker 1: very difficult for a team to win three times, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna dispel that myth right now. Since the NFL

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Speaker 1: merger in nineteen seventy, there have been twenty two instances

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Speaker 1: in which a team has swept its divisional fat in

435
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,960
Speaker 1: the regular season only to me again in the postseason.

436
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 1: The team who swept the regular season matchup is fourteen

437
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: and eight in those games. That includes last year, and

438
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,320
Speaker 1: of course Tom Brady was the one who broke the

439
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,800
Speaker 1: trend for that was fourteen and seven. And if you

440
00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: want to get more granular, and for those instances, the

441
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: role team is actually completed the sweet that's something that

442
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine.

443
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 4: Ers are looking to do here.

444
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 1: Look, fort Knins have dominated this matchup during the Shanahanmocvey era.

445
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 1: They're seven and three and they've won the last six matchup,

446
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: with four of those coming in a role underdog. We

447
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,400
Speaker 1: all know Kyle Shanahan and the roll underdog twenty five

448
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: and seventeen and sixty percent. I like the forty nine

449
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: Ers in this matchup. I think a big part of

450
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,680
Speaker 1: it is their ability to dominate on both sides of

451
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,199
Speaker 1: the ball with the run game. Look, I know this

452
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 1: Ram pass rush is first and pass rush win we

453
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 1: and they have fifty sacks on a year that's third.

454
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 1: But they're able to really run the ball and neutralize

455
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: that pass rush. First two matchups they had one hundred

456
00:22:57,840 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: and fifty six yards one hundred and thirty five yards,

457
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,240
Speaker 1: and that opens things up for Jimmy Garoppolo, who's really

458
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: played well against this team. We look at Jimmy Garoppolo

459
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: and two games because the Rams, He's thirty to fifty one,

460
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 1: four ninety eight yards, three touchdowns, and he even led

461
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 1: an eighty eight yard draft or touchdown to send a

462
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 1: game in overtime and then had the game winning drive

463
00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 1: of Week eighteen to send the four nine.

464
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 4: Ers into the playoffs.

465
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: So a lot of people going to overreact to what

466
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 1: Jimmy g did last week, but I think he's gonna

467
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 1: have a big game.

468
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 3: What do you think yeah, I'm with you on everything.

469
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 3: Here we are. We are in on the forty nine ers,

470
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: and we ain't going anywhere on this. I agree. We

471
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,400
Speaker 3: can't make too much of this Jimmy Garoppolo thing. We're

472
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 3: not betting on a player. This is not the NBA.

473
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 3: This is not one superstar takes over the game. That's

474
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 3: all on them. You're betting on Jimmy Garoppolo in the

475
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: forty nine ers system. You're betting on Jimmy Garoppolo with

476
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan's play calling, with George Hittle to throw to,

477
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 3: with Deebo Samuel out of the backfield, with Trent Williams

478
00:23:56,960 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: and those blockers, and in this matchup, all of those

479
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: those things are positives for him. And the numbers have

480
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 3: been good. The numbers don't mean Jimmy Garoppolo is an

481
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 3: awesome quarterback. They don't need to mean that. They need

482
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 3: to say, Jimmy Garoppolo's offense with the forty nine Ers

483
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 3: is very good. And that's what every number we have

484
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 3: says this year and really every year when Garoppolo is healthy,

485
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 3: when they play with all their guys out there, just

486
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 3: a very good offense and always has been. You mentioned

487
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: the Shanahan underdog numbers. Last nineteen times the Niners have

488
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 3: been underdogs, they have won twelve of those outright. That's

489
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: almost two out of three times that they win outright

490
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: as underdogs. They've dominated this matchup. Like you said, week eighteen,

491
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 3: they were missing Trent Williams, their best player. They were

492
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 3: down seventeen to nothing. Sean McVeigh is forty six and

493
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 3: one lifetime with a halftime lead. That's the one he

494
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 3: blew the lead. The Niners almost double them up in yardage.

495
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,200
Speaker 3: It didn't. It wasn't as close as the final score.

496
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: Look the earlier match of this he's almost thirty one

497
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 3: to ten nine ers. They double time of possession. Matt

498
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 3: Stafford has struggled against this defense, and I think two,

499
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 3: we've got to give credit to this defense. They were awesome,

500
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 3: awesome against the Packers. Demiko o'ryans really schemed things up

501
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: well and I think confused Aaron Rodgers. He'll never admit

502
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 3: to it, but he was having a hard time getting

503
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,119
Speaker 3: those reads. They're putting a lot of guys at the

504
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: line and then dropping coverage. And you mentioned the pass

505
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 3: rush win right as well. That's the scary thing because

506
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: what if Aaron Donald and Von Miller are in Groppolo's

507
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 3: face all game. We don't really trust Garoppolo. We don't

508
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 3: want him to have to go win the game. What

509
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,360
Speaker 3: if he looks like Tom Brady last game those guys

510
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: are in his face. Well, this is not Tampa Bay's

511
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: offensive line. Donovan Smith was a turnstile last week. Kristin

512
00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 3: Wurfs was out at right tackle. Both tackles were just

513
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: open passages. Guys just coming around the edge of the

514
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:55,920
Speaker 3: entire game. Trent Williams is not going to be doing that.

515
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,679
Speaker 3: I need to see Trent Williams playing. If he suddenly

516
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: would be a late, late Screa, that would be a huge,

517
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: huge loss in this game the way von Miller is looking.

518
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 3: But the Niners actually had more sacks this season against

519
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 3: the Rams than vice versa. Nick Bosa Derek Armstead have

520
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 3: also been awesome rushing the passer. And Andrew Whitworth the

521
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,440
Speaker 3: Rams tackle is a question mark. He looks like he'll

522
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 3: play too. We think these guys are gonna play. It's

523
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 3: the big game. But there's just there's I don't have

524
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 3: a hard time finding what about the Rams matching up

525
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 3: here that I like I like so much about the

526
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 3: Niners here.

527
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,160
Speaker 1: I do too, and I think one of the big

528
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 1: things the forty nine ers have that in their advantage

529
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: is that they can generate a pass rush without blitzing.

530
00:26:39,280 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: That's something that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers couldn't do last week,

531
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: and it ultimately burned them because they tried the top

532
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: bolls to side it the blitz at the end of

533
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 1: the game, and Matthew Stafford absolutely destroyed the blitz by

534
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: but you know, throwing all right, Katie just hit me

535
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: it three off, Okay, So Matthew Stafford absolutely destroyed the

536
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: blitz by you know, throwing the past.

537
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: The Cooper Cup, which pretty much ended the game. Well,

538
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 4: when you look at the forty.

539
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: Nine Ers what they did in that second matchup in

540
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: Week eighteen, they actually pressure Stafford fifteen times and sacked

541
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: them five times.

542
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 4: And they barely blitzed.

543
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 1: So I just think this is a really, really, really

544
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: good spot for the forty Niners defense. I think also

545
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 1: when you look at the offense, one of the things

546
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 1: that the forty nine Ers do well is they throw

547
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 1: the ball to the middle of the field yep so,

548
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: and that's an area where the Rams struggle to stop

549
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 1: because they don't have good linebackers. So if you're able

550
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 1: to throw the ball to the middle of the field

551
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,960
Speaker 1: and you're able to run the ball, I just think

552
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: both sides of the ball, the forty nine ers have

553
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,240
Speaker 1: a real edge. The only thing that's really keeping us,

554
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: the only thing that really scares us in this matchup

555
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 1: is the Jimmy g Very. We all know Matthew Staffords

556
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: the better quarterback. But when you look at the coaching advantage,

557
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: when you look at the edge on both sides of

558
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: the ball, I think the forty nine ers have it.

559
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: Now there's another thing. You know, people are mentioning the

560
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 1: forty nine ers are playing a fourth straight rule and

561
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: do you think it's possible they take a run a gas.

562
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 3: I think it's possible. But you know, this is not

563
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 3: a long road trip. The forty nine ers are going

564
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 3: to take a couple hours, you know, to get to LA.

565
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: It's not really a whole lot closer than the LA

566
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 3: guys are getting to their own stadium. And look, we

567
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 3: watched Week eighteen, that was a home game for the

568
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. These Rams, they're scared. The Rams ticket

569
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 3: sellers are trying to blackout tickets from the outside of

570
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: the LA market. They know, they know what happened. That

571
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: was there was red in the stands and loud, loud

572
00:28:50,440 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: to cheering for the forty nine ers in Los Angeles.

573
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 3: Niners fans they're going to show up at this game.

574
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 3: So I actually think that I don't know that if

575
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 3: there's any real home field advantage at all for the

576
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 3: Rams here, this line I think is pricing in some

577
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 3: home field advantage. So I think that that actually is

578
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 3: just going to buy us a little more value on

579
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,959
Speaker 3: the line. I can't believe truly that this line has

580
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: never really dropped past the three and a half at

581
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: least to a three, at least off the hook. For me,

582
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 3: that's the one thing that scares me a little bit,

583
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: just because we've been smashing the Niners, and so many

584
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 3: people have, so many others at Action Network have, and

585
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 3: it just feels like this line is begging you to

586
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: take the Niners as well as they've played when you

587
00:29:35,000 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: get that extra half point. But I just have to

588
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:41,200
Speaker 3: do it because everything looks so good. I think the

589
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 3: way they're playing right now, I actually believe that the

590
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers have the better offense and defense right now. Defensively,

591
00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: they're number four on DVA. The last eight weeks into

592
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 3: the season, they're number one on run defense. We said

593
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 3: all a year the Rams cannot run the ball. They

594
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 3: can't can makers is back but average two yards of

595
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 3: popway week, fumbled twice. Lost his confidence if you can't run. Now,

596
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 3: the whole thing is Matt Stafford trying to beat this

597
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: pass rush and trying to get the ball down the field.

598
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 3: And I agree we're nervous about Jimmy Garoppolo. You never

599
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: know when he might do the thing and throw it away.

600
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 3: Guess who else can do that at any given play.

601
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 3: Matt Stafford, Matthew Stafford as you would call him. You

602
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: gotta get the first name out for that man, because

603
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 3: he can do it too. And we don't need to

604
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 3: say the numbers at this point. You know, against teams

605
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 3: five hundred or better, the man does not get a

606
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: lot of wins, and he has the last couple of weeks.

607
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: But I don't want to make too much of beating

608
00:30:35,440 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 3: up on a Bucks team that was missing like half

609
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: of their starters and almost beat them anyway, and beating

610
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,480
Speaker 3: a Cardinals team that sputtered down the stretch like they

611
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: always do, and that that one is the matchup that

612
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 3: favors the Rams' that's kind of the flip of this

613
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: one where the Rams usually get that matchup. So I

614
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 3: just think that this line, I don't know what it is.

615
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 1: Is it it's it's I have to tell you what

616
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: it is. Honestly, you have sharp guys on both sides

617
00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: of this game. So you got to remember a lot

618
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: of the sharper guys came out at the start of

619
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 1: the season and took the Rams to go to the

620
00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. So you're seeing a Rams team at home.

621
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: And this is so funny because last week I think

622
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 1: you asked me we did we did this little exercise

623
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: and I know you guys, I don't know if you

624
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: guys remember we did an exercise on who had the

625
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: most future value. I don't know you remember, but you

626
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: took the forty nine ers and I took the Rams.

627
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: And one of the reasons why I took the Rams

628
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: despite liking the forty nine ers in this matchup is

629
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: because they have a home game but at the NFC

630
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 1: championship for the Super Bowl, and I mean, we both

631
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 1: ended up being right because the forty nine Ers and

632
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,640
Speaker 1: the Rams are here in the NFC Championship game. But

633
00:31:50,800 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: you give a team a home game, an NFC Championship game,

634
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: and you have an opposing team which has played four

635
00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: straight road games, and there's some questions around Deebo Samuels,

636
00:32:02,320 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 1: there's some questions about Trent Williams, and that's why you're

637
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 1: going to have sharper guys on both sides. So it's

638
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: interesting to see. But I mean, I personally like the

639
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Look, you mentioned it with Matthew Stafford.

640
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 1: He's throwing eight interceptions in the last four games in

641
00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 1: the regular season, and then he beat up on a

642
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: Cardinals team which was just never the same after the

643
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: first ten weeks in the NFL season, and then he

644
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: beat up on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which had

645
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: their entire secondary in the hospital. So, like, I don't

646
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 1: to me, the Rams have to prove it to me.

647
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,239
Speaker 1: And I still think they have some demons that they

648
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: have to overcome with this forty nine ers team. So

649
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: even if the Rams do win, I think at plus

650
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: three and a half, I think we have a positive

651
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,719
Speaker 1: expective value wager. We both like the forty nine ers

652
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 1: money line, but we'll see what happens.

653
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 3: Now, I'm on the Niners to cover. I'm on the

654
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 3: Niners money line. I like Niners. You can play them

655
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 3: at most books to lead at halftime and then win

656
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 3: at the end of the game. Again, we know that

657
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 3: Sean McVay stat if the Rams are leading a halftimes

658
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 3: they almost always win. They only that one week eighteen game,

659
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,120
Speaker 3: So I'm seeing plus two sixty five there. That's kind

660
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 3: of a sneaky way to add a little value to

661
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 3: your money line on the Niners if you do that.

662
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 3: A couple other trends to point out another Stafford trend

663
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 3: November or later, playing team's over five hundred one, he's

664
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 3: a favorite. Matthew Stafford is seven and eight straight up

665
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 3: as a favorite in those games. So he is just

666
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 3: he's losing more than he's winning in those games. And

667
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: that includes the last two weeks or the sorry not

668
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: last week he was a dog there, but that includes

669
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: the win over the Cardinals five nine and one against

670
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 3: the spread in those games, so only thirty six percent cover.

671
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: I want to add two my favorite prop in this game.

672
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 3: You kind of hit toward this earlier and I thought

673
00:33:49,960 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: you were gonna steal it from me, but I'm gonna

674
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 3: come back to it. The Rams can't cover the middle

675
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 3: of the field. Guess who plays pretty darn well in

676
00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: the middle of the field. It's our guy, George Kittle.

677
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: So this year, Week eighteen, George Kittle had ten yards

678
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 3: on five catches, now what you want, But remember Trent

679
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 3: Williams was out. I think he did a lot of

680
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 3: extra blocking in that game to help protect. If you

681
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 3: look at the games before that, the last six times,

682
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 3: the last four seasons as Kittle played, even if you

683
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 3: include that game, here's some of the yardage totals. He's

684
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 3: had four catches for one hundred, five for ninety eight,

685
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 3: nine for one hundred and forty nine, eight for one

686
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 3: hundred and three, seven for one hundred and nine over

687
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 3: the last four seasons. Even including that Week eighteen game,

688
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 3: he's averaging six catches for ninety eight yards get a

689
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 3: touchdown in five of those eight games. So you can

690
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 3: get Kittle over fifty five and a half yards at

691
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 3: plus money right now. You can get him at seventy

692
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 3: five yards or more, which he's done in five of

693
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 3: those seven games, plus two sixty plus five eighty if

694
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 3: you want to go one hundred yards are higher, and

695
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 3: you also go over four and a half catches at

696
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 3: minus one thirty. That line is crazy to me. He's

697
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 3: gone over that the last seven games against the RAM,

698
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: so we know Hittle had a big game last week,

699
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,439
Speaker 3: could have had an even bigger game, had a couple

700
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 3: drops that he wouldn't normally have. I think he has

701
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: a big line here, especially over the middle. That's their

702
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 3: bread and butter. So I like that one. I like

703
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:19,520
Speaker 3: the Niners halftime full time Niners cover Niners money line.

704
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 3: Do you have any other Niners plays here? Anything on

705
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 3: the total? Before we wrap up?

706
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: Leading towards the over. I think this total is starting

707
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: to get a little bit too low. I've seen some

708
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 1: forty five and a halfs in the market, which is

709
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 1: I mean crazy. Between these two teams, you got two

710
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 1: offenses which you are in the top five, top ten

711
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:41,239
Speaker 1: and EPA for play. The four nine ers went under

712
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 1: last week, and I think they went well under expectation.

713
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 1: You just gave out the over on a passing prop

714
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 1: and to me, I think you could see Deebo Samuels

715
00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:52,959
Speaker 1: go over fifteen and a half yards I mean based

716
00:35:53,000 --> 00:35:55,879
Speaker 1: on what he did. I mean, he's pretty much their

717
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 1: all purpose player like forty five and a half. We're

718
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 1: getting to a point point where these two teams are

719
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,840
Speaker 1: familiar with each other. They went over that and both matchups,

720
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 1: so to expect them to go under forty five into

721
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: the NFL, that's a little much. So I'm leaning over

722
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 1: and I actually might play that now.

723
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 3: I think we're going to get some points this weekend

724
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 3: in both of those games. So as we head out here,

725
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: we did not have a look ahead this week. All

726
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 3: we've got is just one game left after this. We

727
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 3: don't need to do our best best. We just hit

728
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 3: them all. But I did want to touch on this

729
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 3: for a couple of minutes here. So you and I

730
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 3: both have been telling folks on this podcast and on

731
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: social media, take the Niners futures. So we gave out

732
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 3: heading into the week eighteen game against the Rams. We

733
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: gave out on this podcast forty nine ers twenty five

734
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 3: to one to win the NFC, forty nine ers fifty

735
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 3: to one to win the Super Bowl. We've given that out,

736
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 3: you and I both multiple times since then, back in

737
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,800
Speaker 3: the Niners. So I've got a lot of questions this

738
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 3: week from our listeners. Do we hedge this is a

739
00:36:54,800 --> 00:36:58,320
Speaker 3: spot where we're one game away from cashing that NFC ticket,

740
00:36:58,360 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 3: we're two wins away from a Super Bowl cash, We're

741
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 3: twenty five to one, and the money line is basically

742
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 3: at plus one point fifty or in that range. So

743
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 3: I just want to talk to you a little bit.

744
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 3: If you're in a spot and you're holding that twenty

745
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 3: five to one ticket on the Niners, would you hedge here?

746
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 3: And what's your theory on hedging?

747
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: If you have them to win the NFC, you could

748
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: safely hedge with taking the RAMS money and you can

749
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: guarantee yourself some profit. For me, I'm not really big

750
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: on if you have a Super Bowl future and hedging

751
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: right now.

752
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think for me it's situational. But the fact

753
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 3: that we both like the Niners in this game specifically

754
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 3: so much means like we're hedging out of a position

755
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,120
Speaker 3: that we like. Here, we're giving away value to bet

756
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 3: on the team that we don't like in this matchup,

757
00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 3: which just it screams bad process.

758
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: I think a situational, like you said, it's how much

759
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: how much will it impact your life if you lose

760
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 1: this bet, or you know, how much are you looking

761
00:37:57,000 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 1: to get back? So it's a situational based on your

762
00:37:59,560 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: bank world.

763
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 3: That's the thing here. I'm assuming most of our listeners

764
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: like myself, like I just I have one unit on

765
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 3: the niners, so I want to win. I can win

766
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 3: the twenty five, I can win the fifty units. That's

767
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 3: a huge win here. But I don't stand to lose

768
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 3: too much. I stand to lose one unit. I got

769
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,160
Speaker 3: one unit on a very few different NBA props tonight.

770
00:38:18,200 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 3: You know, one each on all those. So that's the

771
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 3: whole point of kind of managing your bankroll size. If

772
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 3: you aren't in so much like look, you could bet

773
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 3: the rams are minus one seventy in the money line.

774
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 3: You could bet one point seven units to basically guarantee

775
00:38:32,440 --> 00:38:34,800
Speaker 3: that worst case scenario you come out net even that

776
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,200
Speaker 3: you get your money back from your initial bet. If

777
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 3: you were in for one unit, you your one point

778
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 3: seven Unit's basically what you're doing is you're sacrificing your

779
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:44,919
Speaker 3: forty nine ers plus twenty five hundred ticket. You're turning

780
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 3: that into a plus twenty three thirty ticket. That's not terrible, yeah.

781
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: And that's it's always a good thing when you could

782
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: protect yourself from not losing.

783
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, A couple other things on the numbers. So if

784
00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 3: you're trying to say, okay, how can I lock in

785
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 3: before the game? How I lock in my max profit? Here?

786
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 3: Again assuming one unit on that twenty five to one,

787
00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 3: Just to give you an idea of what the math is,

788
00:39:06,120 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 3: you would have to bet fifteen units on the RAMS

789
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 3: money line, and if you do that, you lock in

790
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 3: being up about eight to nine units. You could you

791
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 3: could walk away right now no matter who wins, you

792
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 3: lock in eight or nine unit win. But again, we

793
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 3: have right now a money line ticket on a one

794
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: game for the forty nine ers at twenty five to one.

795
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,399
Speaker 3: The money line number is plus one fifty five. If

796
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:33,279
Speaker 3: you wanted to be able to bet the money line

797
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 3: to win twenty five units on just this game, if

798
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 3: you're a new better, you got to bet sixteen and

799
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,400
Speaker 3: a half units to get that same payout we bet one.

800
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 3: So I'm not hedging. I like the position. If you

801
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: want to do kind of a sneaky possible hedge, that's

802
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 3: an aggressive hedge. You can actually put a little bit

803
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 3: on Chiefs over forty nine Ers in the Super Bowl.

804
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: That exact outcome is four to one odds. If you

805
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: believe those are the teams and meet in the Super Bowl,

806
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 3: but don't necessarily love the Niners in the matchup. You

807
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 3: could put like five of the units you think you're

808
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,040
Speaker 3: gonna win this week on that matchup. You lock in

809
00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 3: a plus twenty if the Chiefs win, or a plus

810
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: forty five units if the Niners end up winning the

811
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 3: Super Bowl, only if you get your results this week.

812
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: So that might be the raheem play that if you

813
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 3: like what you're seeing, you can just go more all

814
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 3: in and get your twenty five unit win when the

815
00:40:25,719 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 3: Niners win, and then get a little more next week.

816
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: We all also have the benefit of the lab market,

817
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,279
Speaker 1: so you could actually hope the forty nine ers go

818
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 1: up against the Rams and maybe put something on the Rams,

819
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,000
Speaker 1: or you know, maybe you could look at the game

820
00:40:40,040 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 1: and say, you know.

821
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 4: What, I don't like this.

822
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 1: I don't like how this game is going for the

823
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:45,840
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. Let me just get something down on

824
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 1: the Rams.

825
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the math all changes. The RAMS money line

826
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: is minus one seventy. If you get close to an

827
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 3: even or a plus number on the Rams, you've got

828
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 3: a much more favorable opportunity to hatch at that point.

829
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 3: So everyone's a little different. Don't panic here, You've got

830
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,400
Speaker 3: the winning ticket. Anyone would kill to be able to

831
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 3: buy your twenty five to one ticket. Don't give it away,

832
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 3: and don't give the value away. Keep the value here.

833
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 3: That's why we play the game. You play to win

834
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 3: the game playoffs, right, So that's going to wrap it

835
00:41:17,960 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 3: up here at the Action Network Podcast. Don't forget do

836
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 3: download the Action Network app if you haven't yet, a

837
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 3: lot of good stuff on there. You can see all

838
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 3: of our live picks and final decisions on plays there

839
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,760
Speaker 3: as well. Don't forget their rate and review the podcast

840
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 3: on Apple and Spotify. Listen to Stucky Raybound six pack.

841
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 3: They got a few more angles on this on both

842
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 3: games and cover you here. Rahim and I are back

843
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:42,200
Speaker 3: Monday morning to talk through both of these games and

844
00:41:42,320 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 3: everything we saw, and hopefully celebrate some big forty nine

845
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: ers features coming through for us. I'm Brandon Anderson and

846
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 3: this has been the Action Network Podcast. Enjoy your weekend.

847
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:53,880
Speaker 3: Go Niner

848
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: The Spading the Scape to Sting to the spae U,

849
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 1: Sting the Spa