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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go from there, throwing in so

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Speaker 3: spec I'm sitting.

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Speaker 2: It's a cash to stop.

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Speaker 4: We see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 4: they go to wind. That's incredible being bank small banks,

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 2: You want to pass.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: What's up?

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Speaker 3: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and today, as always, I'm joined by the

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Speaker 3: one and only Action Networks NFL expert Chris Raybond. See

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Speaker 3: it's I'm on the East coast. It's like twelve thirty

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Speaker 3: pm right now. It's a little early because Raybon's West

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Speaker 3: coast right now, so he's kind of just getting into

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Speaker 3: the rhythm. I'm gonna bring him in, Raybond, what's up?

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Speaker 3: Sorry to get to you early here.

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Speaker 4: Oh no, no worries. I don't sleep money, so mos up.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, talk to me. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: I mean, listen, when we feel I feel like when

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Speaker 3: we get to Master's Week, it's always like a signal

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Speaker 3: that we're, you know, getting close to the draft. It's

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Speaker 3: about two weeks out now recording this on Wednesday morning afternoonish.

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Speaker 3: So I mean at this point, I mean we're just

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Speaker 3: gonna go one by one by one, kind of starting

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Speaker 3: at the top. I think we can again forget the

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Speaker 3: number one pick. But there's been a ton of movements,

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Speaker 3: so before we even start at number two, Ray Bound,

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Speaker 3: what's your thought process right now?

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Speaker 2: Draft? What you're hearing, you know, just kind of the process.

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Speaker 4: So I still think that we're gonna probably see a

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Speaker 4: blockbuster Trader two, that that's gonna change everything again. But

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Speaker 4: I also think we're starting to see and you know,

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Speaker 4: if you've listened to this pod, we've kind of talked

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Speaker 4: about just fading that consensus outcome of you know, at

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Speaker 4: the top of the draft after cam Ward, and we're

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Speaker 4: already seeing that starting to pay off a little bit,

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Speaker 4: where you know, we talked about, okay, well what if

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Speaker 4: it's not you know that that two, three, four in

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Speaker 4: the order that people think And already now we're seeing

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Speaker 4: Hunter become a favorite in the number two spot and

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Speaker 4: you could have got him pretty much anywhere but three

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Speaker 4: at at a great price before. So now we're just

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Speaker 4: gonna we're gonna we could keep kind of playing this board,

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Speaker 4: these top five picks and uh, but hopefully by the

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Speaker 4: time the draft comes, we just it's just all gravy

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Speaker 4: no matter what you know, because I think that this

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Speaker 4: is not gonna be the last time that you know,

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Speaker 4: these odds for the number two, the number three, the

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Speaker 4: number four, number five, even uh kind of get turned

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Speaker 4: on their head a little bit.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think that is the question, right, Like it

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Speaker 3: feels like at this point, you know, Travis Hunter was

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Speaker 3: plus one eighty five last week to go to he

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Speaker 3: was even close to seven to one the week before,

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Speaker 3: and now he's up to minus two eighty So I

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Speaker 3: think the question is Hunter two, and now Abdul Carter's

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Speaker 3: sitting at about minus one seventy to go three.

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Speaker 2: Will there be a change again?

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Speaker 3: And I think two weeks out you assume something will

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Speaker 3: happen to kind of shake up the board. Now I

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Speaker 3: feel like we got it right the first time because

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Speaker 3: we did say, listen, this isn't gonna stay the way

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Speaker 3: it is, and we recommended a few prices. Those prices

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Speaker 3: now kind of odds on in a few of these situations.

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Speaker 3: So looking good there. The question is, and you answered it,

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Speaker 3: you think there will be more of a shakeup. So

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Speaker 3: I guess let's just start with number two. I mean,

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Speaker 3: would you go back to the shador concept there. I mean,

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Speaker 3: he's seventeen to one, twenty to one in some spots.

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Speaker 3: More people, I mean more people have him sliding than

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Speaker 3: kind of doing what we were considering at first. Because

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Speaker 3: they're talking New Orleans. I haven't seen some mocks have

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Speaker 3: him in like the twenties, which I think is absolutely ridiculous.

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Speaker 3: But I think New Orleans is feeling like some sort

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Speaker 3: of destination from him for him right now, just based

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Speaker 3: off who is at the top of the draft. But

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Speaker 3: what are your thoughts there with that concept?

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Speaker 4: Matos are the accon Duard is up to the fifth

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Speaker 4: most player to take in with that number two pick

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Speaker 4: at a bunch of sites, and we talked about that earlier,

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Speaker 4: So I think that's interesting. I just think again, you know,

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Speaker 4: Travis Hunter seems to be a guy who remember Colorado

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Speaker 4: just had their pro day. So Travis Hunter is he's intriguing,

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Speaker 4: He's everybody loves Travis Hunter. He's you know, he's sexy

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Speaker 4: as a as a prospect. He got that got dion

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Speaker 4: like offense, defense ability. So I think Travis Hunter, right

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Speaker 4: regardless of even if the odds settle on the actual

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Speaker 4: pick he goes, they'll probably still be inflated, you know,

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Speaker 4: because I think everyone's just kind of enamored with him.

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Speaker 4: And that's why I think last week when we did

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Speaker 4: the pot he was he was a favorite in two

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Speaker 4: different picks.

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Speaker 1: I think it was.

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Speaker 4: Three four and now look he's minus two eighty minus

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Speaker 4: three hundred to go number two. So yeah, this you

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Speaker 4: get what you were gonna do if you're listening into

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Speaker 4: this pod and you're trying to follow along and just

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Speaker 4: you know, place a few bets, take a few positions

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Speaker 4: heading into the draft. Kind of you just have to

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Speaker 4: keep kind of playing the odds of not the consensus

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Speaker 4: and take take the value that the board gives you.

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Speaker 4: So I mean should or you know, there's probably something

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Speaker 4: to the fact that he's sliding. I mean we've heard

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Speaker 4: this a lot, you know, he was this was kind

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Speaker 4: of a thing that you know, we started to see

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Speaker 4: a few weeks ago, and then you see the pro

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Speaker 4: day and now he's slide more so maybe maybe somebody

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Speaker 4: does know something. I still think he's an okay value there,

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Speaker 4: but it seems like I think really guy like Dart

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Speaker 4: you know Abdu Carter now, I mean he was the

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Speaker 4: consensus number two pick for weeks and and he was

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Speaker 4: what minus two hundred, minus three hundred just the odds

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Speaker 4: that a hunter are now, So you know, maybe just

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Speaker 4: uh we'll sprinkle him as well, because again, you don't

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Speaker 4: want to just be betting on every single person in

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Speaker 4: this on this list, but uh, Dart is.

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Speaker 1: A guy that I want to have exposure to.

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Speaker 4: Uh Sanders, we should have already kind of had exposure

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Speaker 4: there and then and then Abu Carter now at plus

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Speaker 4: two five is another one I want to get exposure

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Speaker 4: to because I don't think much change, you know, in

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Speaker 4: the last couple of days. You know, it's just it's

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Speaker 4: just rumors. So yeah, I think Abow Carter is the

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Speaker 4: play at plus two o five. He was, he was

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Speaker 4: in the Hunter spot just last week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean we touched Shador at about nine to one,

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Speaker 3: and that two slot at seventeen and eighteen. I'm probably

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Speaker 3: gonna put a few dollars on it as well, Like

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Speaker 3: nothing has really changed in that timeframe, and you probably

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Speaker 3: you know, start to believe some mocks in terms of

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Speaker 3: the slide, But I do think it's still an option there,

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Speaker 3: and you like Carter it too, I think it's probably

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Speaker 3: worth talking about the Giants at three just a little

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Speaker 3: bit so right now Carter minus one seventy, Travis Hunter

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Speaker 3: plus two fifty, and Shador's four to one. Now, Carter

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Speaker 3: was plus three forty to code third overall just last week.

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Speaker 3: So I mean kind of saying, to Raybond's point, these

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Speaker 3: things have been fluctuating at a great amount. I think

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Speaker 3: with two weeks left, it's going to kind of just

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Speaker 3: keep going down that path. Hunter was odds on to

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Speaker 3: go three last week at minus one sixty and now

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Speaker 3: obviously that's completely flipped with him slaved to.

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Speaker 2: Go to Cleveland.

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Speaker 3: So in terms of just the number three pick, quickly,

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Speaker 3: because I think four and five now that we're kind

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Speaker 3: of shuffling, becomes a little bit more interesting now that

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Speaker 3: Travis Hunter is not plus one seventy five to go

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Speaker 3: number four, Like there's a little bit of a different.

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Speaker 2: Way to look at that pick. But quickly on three,

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Speaker 2: anything else to recommend there?

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Speaker 4: This is the pick that you know, I still have

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Speaker 4: a hard time believing that the Giants don't want to

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Speaker 4: come out of this draft with a quarterback. So and

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Speaker 4: you're kind of seeing that reflected a little bit with Shador.

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Speaker 4: He's only four to one, even though his I think

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Speaker 4: is over under has plummeted quite a bit. He's four

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Speaker 4: to one to go at that number three pick. But

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Speaker 4: I think this is the time and you might, I mean,

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Speaker 4: maybe he gets even longer, but I think this is

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Speaker 4: the time where you get some Travis at plus two fifty,

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Speaker 4: right because we, like we were talking about last week,

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Speaker 4: Abdu Carter could be the number three. Maybe it's maybe

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Speaker 4: the Giants trade up. Maybe the Giants trade out, but

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe they maybe they draft the quarterback later

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Speaker 4: on and they and all the quarterbacks were sliding.

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Speaker 1: But now we're.

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Speaker 4: Looking at a situation where a Hunter, you know, either

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Speaker 4: it could be quarterback quarterback Hunter, it could be quarterback

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Speaker 4: Carter Hunter, like these scenarios that we just talked about

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Speaker 4: last week, and he was the favorite for now he's

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Speaker 4: plus two to fifty. So that's the way I'm approaching

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Speaker 4: it is, I'm this is not the last time. This

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Speaker 4: is gonna change. Get I'm gonna buy low on Hunter now.

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Speaker 4: But I think realistically, I still expect the Giants to

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Speaker 4: want to come out a draft of the quarterback now

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Speaker 4: maybe they trade to pick but Jackson again, Jackson Dark

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Speaker 4: seventy five to one. I'm gonna spring something on that too,

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Speaker 4: So that Dart and Uh and then the last week's

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Speaker 4: favorite Hunter, those will be my two targets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, looking at the Giants draft, they've got

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Speaker 3: three thirty four to six ninety nine, So I mean

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Speaker 3: I would say they probably have an opportunity to potentially

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Speaker 3: grab another one if they like them in terms of

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Speaker 3: their draft board. If Shador is not the pick, you know,

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Speaker 3: just shopping at a few books right now, I do

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Speaker 3: see the Giants to take Shador at like the highest

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Speaker 3: price I see is about four twenty four thirty in

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Speaker 3: some places, and I even see as low as two fifty,

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Speaker 3: So obviously shop around, but at that price it trumps

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Speaker 3: the taking him at that third slot. So, as we've

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Speaker 3: said like a million times in these pods, definitely come

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Speaker 3: up with a concept in terms of what you want

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Speaker 3: to do in terms of in terms of the draft,

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Speaker 3: Like if you like Shador to go to the Giants,

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Speaker 3: well that's him going three, or that's his specific market,

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Speaker 3: or you know, there's a lot of different ways to

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Speaker 3: play this, so make sure you take a look at that,

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Speaker 3: but that's just yeah, go.

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Speaker 4: Sorry, I just wanted to go back really quick where

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Speaker 4: you were talking talking about, you know, should or the Giants.

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Speaker 4: It just hit me that we did kind of gloss

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Speaker 4: over the number one pick and we did hear a

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Speaker 4: rumor last think that the Giants are trying to trade

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Speaker 4: up with the Titans for the number one pick. So

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Speaker 4: I don't see as the markets for uh, you know

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Speaker 4: who cam Ward the team he's going to be drafted

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Speaker 4: by up right now. So that's kind of interesting and

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Speaker 4: something to watch out for too, because remember, it might

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Speaker 4: not be the Giants in that number three pick, not

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Speaker 4: only because they've traded back, maybe they trade up so

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Speaker 4: that that could have an effect on a lot of

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Speaker 4: these bets as well, and there's probably something some value

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Speaker 4: to be had there, and you know, cam Ward to

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Speaker 4: be drafted by that we're just that we're not seeing yet.

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Speaker 4: But uh, if if we do see that, that's that's

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Speaker 4: something I'd be looking to see maybe maybe potentially fade

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Speaker 4: the Titans a little bit and or or you know,

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Speaker 4: take a fire on the Giants somehow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was looking around.

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Speaker 3: I can't find anything specific there, and I think it's

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Speaker 3: probably on purpose at the moment because everyone is just

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Speaker 3: making the assumption, but maybe something that will pop up closer.

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Speaker 3: But let's move to the fourth pick here. So here

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Speaker 3: are the update odds.

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Speaker 2: At the moment. You've got Will Campbell.

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Speaker 3: Plus one fifty ish Mamboo the tackle at three to one.

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Speaker 3: Then you've got Abdul Carter plus three fifty, and then

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Speaker 3: Travis Hunter six to fifty, and then you get to

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Speaker 3: Mason Graham attend to one. Now, if you're making the

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Speaker 3: assumption that Carter and Hunter aren't the options here because

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Speaker 3: they're already gone, which I feel like in some order

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Speaker 3: they probably will be entering the fourth pick, it's interesting

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Speaker 3: that Campbell has become the favorite and member kind of

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Speaker 3: moving down a little bit. I mean, many people didn't

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Speaker 3: think that four was even an option for him, So

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Speaker 3: interesting that he's slated in that position. But what are

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Speaker 3: your thoughts in terms of the Patriots their.

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Speaker 4: Team that I think Putrade down. I've kind of thought

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Speaker 4: that for a while, and that kind of complicates this

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Speaker 4: pick from a betting perspective, because I even though you're

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Speaker 4: seeing both of the tackles as favorites, as you know,

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Speaker 4: top two in terms of odds and they're both that

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Speaker 4: plus money. I think that's just reflective of how uncertain

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Speaker 4: this is. It's probably still a little inflated because if

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Speaker 4: you got those three guys going off the board, Ward, Hunter, Carter,

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Speaker 4: at some point some some team might trade up for

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Speaker 4: a quarterback here, you know, they might, and the Patriots

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Speaker 4: might be the team that trades with them. And so

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Speaker 4: you know a Shore and Dart are thirty three to

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Speaker 4: one and seventy five to one. That's probably too long there,

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Speaker 4: but you know, it's it's it's starting. It starts to

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Speaker 4: get really you know, dependent on quarterback now because if

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Speaker 4: the Patriots stay put, yeah, it's probably gonna be one

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Speaker 4: of those two guys, but uh, you could there's also

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Speaker 4: other markets where you could kind of bet which one.

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Speaker 4: And I think it wasn't Campbell behind it Membo momentarily

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Speaker 4: for a couple of days. Yeah, So right, this is

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Speaker 4: we can't pretend that we know more than we know.

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Speaker 4: Like you got to know what you don't know, and

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Speaker 4: ironically that's actually how you bet that these kind of

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Speaker 4: futures and just the draft in general at this point,

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Speaker 4: especially this far out, is know what you don't know

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Speaker 4: and profit and know what we all don't know and

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Speaker 4: profit of that, and so I think that I would

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Speaker 4: still kind of go with the you know, just kind

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Speaker 4: of betting the you know, which one of those guys

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Speaker 4: will go first based on who's the underdog. Like last

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Speaker 4: week we got we got Campbell at plus money. Now

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Speaker 4: you'll probably get the other.

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Speaker 1: Side of that.

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Speaker 4: So sure, that's what I would do. As far as

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Speaker 4: the pick itself, I really think the only two guys

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Speaker 4: worth sprinkling are the quarterbacks, just because that's the kind

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Speaker 4: of you know, that's what could come out of left field.

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Speaker 4: It's just some team that we don't foresee now trading

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Speaker 4: with the Patriots. So that's how I've kind of approached

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Speaker 4: that number four pick.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, shure door thirty three to one to go in

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Speaker 3: that for slot to whoever would be in that for slot,

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Speaker 3: because it wouldn't be New England in that position.

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Speaker 2: I think the.

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Speaker 3: Patriots and many people have said this, just praying that

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Speaker 3: a quarterback goes top three so that they can at

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Speaker 3: least get probably one of the top four players and

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Speaker 3: not have to kind of make this decision. But you know,

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Speaker 3: they're not really in control of that, so they will

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Speaker 3: see how that goes. The other thing I think that's

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Speaker 3: interesting is you look at some EDP consensus the two

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Speaker 3: players who are really shooting up the board when you

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Speaker 3: just talk about average position. Will Campbell, who was at

295
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Speaker 3: around ten now down to about four nine to five

296
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Speaker 3: really in that top five range based off of the

297
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Speaker 3: conversation we just had, and Kelvin Banks Junior about twenty

298
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Speaker 3: now down to about the fifteen to sixteen range, both

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Speaker 3: offensive linemen. So interesting enough, I mean, those are the

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Speaker 3: positions that we've talked about numerous times being crucial to

301
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Speaker 3: any team, but moving up the board as well in

302
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Speaker 3: terms of the fifth pick.

303
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Speaker 2: Right now.

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Speaker 3: Graham was the favorite last week and he's still the favorite,

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Speaker 3: but he's moved from even to minus one point fifty.

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Speaker 3: I just feel like he's been pegged to Jacksonville. Literally,

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Speaker 3: that was like the first bet we saw on the board,

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Speaker 3: and it really hasn't moved since because I'm not really

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Speaker 3: sure there's a reason for it to move any other

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Speaker 3: thought here on Jacksonville other than Graham.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and that so I do want to point

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Speaker 4: out just because we're kind of we're looking at these

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Speaker 4: boards for you know, who is going to be the

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Speaker 4: number five pick, and we always talked about there's so

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Speaker 4: many different markets when you're bett in the draft, so

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Speaker 4: just be aware. Like when you say Jacksonville, it's it's

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Speaker 4: we're talking about the number five pick. That might not

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Speaker 4: be Jacksonville because Jacksonville may trade up, they may trade back,

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Speaker 4: like they're kind of an unknown. I've been saying that too.

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Speaker 4: We don't know with this new regime exactly how they're

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Speaker 4: going to approach things. So Jacksonville is another one of

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Speaker 4: those teams that could kind of throw a wrench in

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Speaker 4: the situation. But I think when I look at the board,

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Speaker 4: the two guys that stand out to me are and

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Speaker 4: again aside from the quarterbacks, but because that some team

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Speaker 4: could trade with Jacksonville and if they want a quarterback

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Speaker 4: at that point, but the two offensive linemen, Membo is

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Speaker 4: plus five fifty and Campbell is ten to one.

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Speaker 1: Now you know, at the number four.

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Speaker 4: Pick, they're the two favorites, you know, plus one fifty

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Speaker 4: plus three hundred. So again there's a chance that teams,

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Speaker 4: just like somebody wants a quarterback or Jacksonville just wants

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Speaker 4: a certain player, maybe maybe a quarterback goes in the

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Speaker 4: top three. Because there's a lot of different outs for

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Speaker 4: where uh you know, there's like a little bit of

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Speaker 4: a shuffle between you know these these really any pick

337
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Speaker 4: after uh one, but even one is now kind of

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Speaker 4: in question because we know the Giants are trying to

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Speaker 4: move up. So just remember that, like a team that

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Speaker 4: we think could be making the number four pick, maybe

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Speaker 4: they're making the number five pick. You know, maybe the

342
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Speaker 4: Patris trade down one spot, the jack straighte up one spot.

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Speaker 4: You know, we don't like things like that could happen.

344
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Speaker 4: There could be surprise teams that make a whackbuster deal.

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Speaker 4: So I would just kind of look at the guys

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Speaker 4: who we expect to kind of go in this range

347
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Speaker 4: anyway that are all of a sudden super undervalued, because

348
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Speaker 4: everyone's kind of basing these odds on the teams currently

349
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Speaker 4: in these spots. Because clearly, if you got two guys

350
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Speaker 4: are the two favorites in the pick before, and then

351
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Speaker 4: all of a sudden they you know, it's plus five

352
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Speaker 4: fifty and ten to one, that kind of tells me

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Speaker 4: that it's very team based right now, and that's that's

354
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Speaker 4: gonna be so easy to move in just one swift,

355
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Speaker 4: you know, one deal could con turn everything on its head.

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Speaker 1: So that's how I would look at that.

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Speaker 4: I would go at the two linemen at this spot

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Speaker 4: because you can't better everybody, right, so the two linemen

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Speaker 4: and yeah, and then maybe like a I don't even

360
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Speaker 4: the quarterbacks, Like at this point, I think five, maybe

361
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Speaker 4: you sprinkle, But after that then you got you kind

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00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:32,919
Speaker 4: of got to like, you know, there's other ways you

363
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,160
Speaker 4: can attack it the market, but that's probably the way

364
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,600
Speaker 4: I would do it. I would look at the lineman

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Speaker 4: and maybe a sprinkle on the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think four and five you sprinkle the quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: And at five, I do agree with the lineman. And

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Speaker 3: I only say this in terms of just odds. So

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Speaker 3: Member with plus five to fifty to go five Campbell

370
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Speaker 3: at about ten to one. But if you look at

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00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,280
Speaker 3: their odds to be a top five pick Gram minus

372
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Speaker 3: one forty, Campbell minus one thirty five Membu plus one thirty,

373
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Speaker 3: I would just prefer them to be one of them

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Speaker 3: to go into that fifth slot. I think in terms

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Speaker 3: of the odds. Now, I know there's other positions and

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Speaker 3: other ways to lose those bets, but just looking at

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Speaker 3: how the market is looking at the player, which is,

378
00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 3: you know, based off of people listed, and they're obviously

379
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,760
Speaker 3: ignoring Carter and Hunter and you know, the people who

380
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 3: are obvious top five picks, but it is interesting based

381
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:27,919
Speaker 3: off of that.

382
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:32,280
Speaker 4: So, yeah, one guy I mentioned is gent Now he's

383
00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 4: eight to one, so those probably want a little bit longer.

384
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Speaker 4: But my thought process with he probably is another guy

385
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Speaker 4: that I I now that I look at this board,

386
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Speaker 4: I do want exposure.

387
00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 2: To because.

388
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 4: He's been why I don't want to say widely, but

389
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:49,760
Speaker 4: he's been mocked in quite a bit.

390
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: To the Raiders at six.

391
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:56,240
Speaker 4: Now that's you know, the Bears at ten or another possibility.

392
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Speaker 4: But if teams think the Raiders are going to take

393
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Speaker 4: him at six, and all it takes is one team

394
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,119
Speaker 4: that maybe is like, hey, you know, running backs are

395
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,919
Speaker 4: valuable in our book or something, you know, like who knows, uh,

396
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:09,880
Speaker 4: they might think they have to trade up to five.

397
00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 4: And you know the Jags at five you don't really,

398
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 4: like you said, we don't, they're like locked into this

399
00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 4: one pick where if it's not that guy, then who knows,

400
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 4: maybe they maybe they they don't feel stronger, maybe they

401
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 4: are looking to shop that pick. So maybe a team

402
00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 4: kind of slides in there, and even you know, I

403
00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 4: don't think I don't I don't maybe even four. But

404
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:33,360
Speaker 4: now that like, if you look at he's twenty to one,

405
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:34,960
Speaker 4: if you're gonna if you're gonna do it at five,

406
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,639
Speaker 4: at eight to one, you probably want to do a

407
00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,560
Speaker 4: little sprinkle at twenty one. I don't think teams are

408
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:41,600
Speaker 4: gonna value even though he's a special player. I don't

409
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,199
Speaker 4: think teams are gonna value uh, the running back position

410
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 4: that high.

411
00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: But I just thought I point that.

412
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,800
Speaker 4: Out with the number five, is that the Raiders have

413
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,639
Speaker 4: been kind of expected to take him at six if

414
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 4: he's there, So if you wanted to get him, you'd

415
00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 4: have to be at five or higher. And I think

416
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 4: the Jags because they don't they don't need a quarterback,

417
00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,160
Speaker 4: and there's really you know, it's not like a ton.

418
00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 1: Of different guy.

419
00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 4: There's a little bit of a drop off after those

420
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 4: top three guys.

421
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,960
Speaker 1: I think the Patriots, but the Jags.

422
00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:11,000
Speaker 4: Two are in a position where they might end up

423
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,919
Speaker 4: not making that fifth selection.

424
00:20:14,040 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 1: The fourth and the fifth selections respectively.

425
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 3: A long shot to think about with gent going on.

426
00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 3: Basically exactly what you just said is I see exact

427
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 3: team to take him, and I've got Dallas at fifteen

428
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,479
Speaker 3: to one and Jacksonville at fifteen to one. Now Dallas

429
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 3: would take a trade up or him sliding to twelve,

430
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 3: and Jacksonville would just you know, taking him in that

431
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 3: slot and trading him or using him. I mean, there's

432
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,399
Speaker 3: a few avenues for that to happen, but I do

433
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 3: see those fifteen to ones, at least from what I'm seeing,

434
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 3: is the best odds in the market. So obviously shop around,

435
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: but that seems like a decent other than Raiders situation.

436
00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 3: I mean, the Bears are plus two sixty, the Saints

437
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,480
Speaker 3: are nine to one. I think the Saints are mildly intriguing.

438
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 3: I think the Bears are a little too short for me,

439
00:21:00,640 --> 00:21:03,800
Speaker 3: considering maybe Chicago goes running back. I mean they've been

440
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 3: rumored with, uh maybe trading Swift for brest Hall or

441
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 3: all sorts of different things. But to me, that's probably

442
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 3: the way I would play gen.

443
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the Raiders, I think, have just, based on

444
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 4: their roster, quite a few ways they could go.

445
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 1: But then the.

446
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 4: Bears have kind of the luxury of, you know, if

447
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 4: there was a team that was going to overspend on

448
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,719
Speaker 4: a running back. Not not that I'm saying the Bear should,

449
00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 4: but because of the way they attack the old line

450
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,800
Speaker 4: because of the fact that they got their quarterback situation

451
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 4: under control and now you got the you know, the offensive,

452
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,360
Speaker 4: you know, you got the coaching staff that you want

453
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 4: in place. They have the luxury probably of being a

454
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,680
Speaker 4: bit aggressive there, you know, and that could look really

455
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,440
Speaker 4: good if they if they kind of trade up and

456
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,680
Speaker 4: take him and everything comes together quickly, more quickly than

457
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 4: they maybe we thought, or you know, kind of the

458
00:21:58,119 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 4: way the way we thought it was gonna happens year.

459
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 1: So they definitely are a team to watch out for.

460
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 4: But I agree, I think you probably want to bet

461
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 4: on him dropping to them rather than you know, just

462
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:14,199
Speaker 4: because of the odds, just rather than them, Like you know,

463
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,600
Speaker 4: trading up is still I mean, there's thirty other teams

464
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 4: that could trade two, so it's it's like, I think

465
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 4: those odds are short, but it's definitely a possibility, and

466
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 4: I do think they have the luxury of doing it.

467
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 2: The Bears are just confusing to me.

468
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about draft position for teams later,

469
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 3: and there's nobody. I think are no position in most

470
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:36,440
Speaker 3: books below like two to one on Chicago, because I

471
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 3: think it's just they can go in a lot of

472
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 3: different places, all right, So let's move on to the

473
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:42,959
Speaker 3: next topic here, and we kind of touched on this already,

474
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,640
Speaker 3: but I feel like it's worth talking more about Shador

475
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 3: in just a few different ways because at the moment,

476
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 3: I think it's the biggest storyline because you know, have

477
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,639
Speaker 3: him slated to have him slated three, Now we're talking

478
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 3: nine and a few other slots, and if it's not nine,

479
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 3: I mean, the guy's just probably gonna fall unless someone

480
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 3: trades up for him.

481
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 2: So his position over under was three.

482
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 3: And a half last week, and it was minus one

483
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 3: seventy to the over plus one forty the under. Now

484
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 3: it is eight and a half and it's minus two

485
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 3: hundred to the over plus one sixty to the under.

486
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 3: Now the team to take him has adjusted as well

487
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 3: as you would assume because he's sliding a little bit.

488
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 3: But let's just talk about the position for a second

489
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 3: and then we can get into some teams. There's just

490
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,439
Speaker 3: any other thoughts on what you would do with just

491
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 3: the rumors around Shador two weeks out right, because I mean,

492
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,840
Speaker 3: everything is gonna change at any moment given news, but

493
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:40,439
Speaker 3: right now, given what you're seeing, I don't know.

494
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 4: Just let me let me tweet Mel Kiper and see

495
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 4: how he's coming out with his mock and where he

496
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:47,440
Speaker 4: had it.

497
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:49,280
Speaker 1: Or and that's what that's what it is, right, I mean,

498
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 1: the odds are moving.

499
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 3: The odds are moving because of you know, influencer mocks

500
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: and you know, good or bad or accurate. I mean

501
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 3: that's kind of what we're seeing and other people might

502
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 3: be following. But I mean to move five and a

503
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,960
Speaker 3: half slots and really again seeing him go in the

504
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 3: teen's twenties, you know, and people being like, it's got

505
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 3: to be New Orleans because if it's not New Orleans,

506
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 3: then where it feels like there is an opportunity at

507
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 3: some point.

508
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 4: Right, Raybun absolutely, because listen Mel Kiper, and he's great

509
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 4: at what he does. But we I pretty you know,

510
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 4: I think he had him at nine and his yeah

511
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 4: slot has been eight and a half now.

512
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 1: And I think this.

513
00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 4: Is the the kind of downside of you know what

514
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 4: we discussed a few weeks ago when we started talking

515
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,920
Speaker 4: about the draft, which is kind of walking into you know,

516
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 4: the most popular mock drafters, the most popular mocks, the consensus.

517
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 4: Because when we're mocking, no matter who it is, how

518
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 4: good they are, we're all constrained by the current draft order,

519
00:24:56,000 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 4: and so we are essentially trying to assign guys to teams,

520
00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 4: and when those assignments don't work, we just don't know

521
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 4: where to put them. And so I think a lot

522
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 4: of people kind of question whether, you know, the Browns

523
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,239
Speaker 4: would take quarterback here if they had a high enough

524
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:15,399
Speaker 4: grade and really pass.

525
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 1: On, you know, a guy like Hunter or Carter.

526
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 4: And I think a lot of people are questioning whether

527
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 4: the Giants would do the same if they're not able

528
00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:25,640
Speaker 4: to get up to one and get cam Ward.

529
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: So now you're just.

530
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 4: Looking like, all right, well, if i'm if I'm mel

531
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 4: Kiper and I don't have If if I have you know, Ward, Hunter,

532
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 4: Carter to the top three, now where do I put standards?

533
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 4: Because now I can either make a bunch of trades,

534
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 4: you know, early in the draft. So I think there's

535
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 4: it's just it just comes from Ox more than anything.

536
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: Now maybe now it's very possible he could have heard

537
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 4: something or there could be some something to it, but

538
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 4: we just don't know. And the fact that we don't know,

539
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 4: I would I would kind of be skeptical at this

540
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,199
Speaker 4: point that you know, there's more or substance or that

541
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 4: anything really changed. I think I think we always kind

542
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 4: of thought that, you know, like I said, I think

543
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 4: I think dark might be better, but Sanders has he's

544
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 4: just not a He might not be as sexy too

545
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 4: mock drafters even like you know what I mean, like

546
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 4: he I think a lot of NFL teams might actually

547
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 4: have a higher grade on him, but he's just not

548
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,160
Speaker 4: that that fun for you know, maybe some of us

549
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 4: watching as some of these other guys. So I think

550
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 4: it's a lot of noise. I think this is just

551
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:33,040
Speaker 4: a situation where I would still kind of be looking

552
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 4: at uh tow to kind of fade that. But well,

553
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 4: we have you've already kind of done that. We've talked

554
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 4: about that, you know, so we'll see, we'll see where

555
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 4: it goes. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him

556
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,920
Speaker 4: his over under back in the top five.

557
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: I wouldn't.

558
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 4: But I also wouldn't be surprised to see it fall

559
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 4: out of the top twenty. I think I think you

560
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,680
Speaker 4: just kind of play off the uncertainty right now, and

561
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 4: for me would the only certain.

562
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: Thing I'm seeing is that a very very influential.

563
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 4: Uh mock drafter uh mocked them to a spot and

564
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 4: now that's his overrinder.

565
00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 3: I mean, the only other thing I would say is

566
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:12,719
Speaker 3: in terms of the odds, right now, he is plus

567
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 3: four point fifty to go to the Steelers. That is

568
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 3: a one book. The highest I see is about six

569
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 3: point fifty, and he was in that four to fifty range.

570
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 3: So I think Pittsburgh is intriguing. I kind of wish

571
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: it was a little bit longer, but the slide to

572
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: me leads to Pittsburgh. I mean, if they're talking Jackson

573
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 3: Dart and somehow both quarterbacks don't get picked, which I

574
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 3: don't know if that's realistic in this situation, but Pittsburgh

575
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 3: needs a quarterback and for them to be third on

576
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 3: this list when we feel like the Giants might do

577
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 3: something different, and right now, the whole world thinks he's

578
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 3: going to New Orleans, and you know, sometimes that happens,

579
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 3: but in the draft there's smoke screens a lot of

580
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,880
Speaker 3: times that doesn't happen, especially two weeks out. Still feel

581
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 3: like Pittsburgh's intriguing, and the other one out of field

582
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 3: would be the Rams, just because it just makes sense

583
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 3: for them at some point to get some other quarterback

584
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 3: into that room.

585
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 2: But again, at.

586
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 3: Eleven to one I wanted a little bit longer. So

587
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 3: I don't know what else to do there.

588
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 4: And it's tough because I think Shador is kind of

589
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 4: set up to slide in this pre draft in these

590
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 4: you know, in this time wading up to the draft,

591
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:24,879
Speaker 4: just because you got a bunch of teams at the

592
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 4: top who you know could use a quarterback, and you know,

593
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 4: there's one quarterback that is kind of expected to go

594
00:28:32,280 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 4: number one.

595
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,920
Speaker 1: But then uh, there's you know, there's also.

596
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 4: Like pretty much every team I think aft like even

597
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 4: the Titans one on down at the top of the draft,

598
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 4: wants those options, right they So I think teams lower down,

599
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 4: you know, there's like if if people are talking to teams, uh,

600
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 4: you know, let's say in that in those spots after

601
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 4: the Giants and Browns, they're probably yeah, we don't want

602
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 4: to go because they don't want to they don't want

603
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 4: to drive up his price. So you got probably have

604
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 4: like every quarterback needy team besides you know, the two

605
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 4: or three at the top that are saying, like, we

606
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 4: don't want this guy because if they if they jack

607
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 4: is value up, then the trade value for that they

608
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 4: have to pay more. So I think he's kind of

609
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,719
Speaker 4: built to have this like artificial slide. But again, I

610
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 4: also maybe maybe it's it's a it's a Jackson Dart thing.

611
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 4: But either way, there's long odds on both of those

612
00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 4: kind of outcomes. So that's the way I would look

613
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 4: at it. I think I just think that there's no

614
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 4: real incentive for anybody, but maybe the Cleveland Browns to

615
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 4: say we're really high on Shuter Sanders.

616
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: Right now, yeah, and just giving out the odds before

617
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 3: we kind of move on here. So bet through sixty five,

618
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 3: the Giants has a favorite of plus two seventy five,

619
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 3: followed by the Saints a plus three fifty and the

620
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 3: Browns at five to one. But you just look at

621
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 3: FanDuel and the Saints are favored plus two seventy, with

622
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 3: the Giants a plus four twenty and the Steelers a

623
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:03,800
Speaker 3: plus for fifty. So to me, shopping around you you're

624
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: gonna find a lot of different prices. You just kind

625
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 3: of try to find the destination. All right, that is

626
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 3: your door. Why don't you take it off here?

627
00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 2: Remon? All right?

628
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,920
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629
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,600
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631
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632
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633
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634
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635
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00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:46,240
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657
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Speaker 4: nineteen plus in Colorado for some games, twenty one plus

658
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 4: in Massachusetts and Arizona in present.

659
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: In a state where Underdog Fantasy operates. Terms applied. Concern

660
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 1: with your play.

661
00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 4: Call one eight hundred gambor or visit NCP gambling dot org.

662
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 4: In Arizona, call one eight hundred next step or text

663
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 4: ny XT step to five three three four two in

664
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 4: New York called the twenty four to seven Hope line

665
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 4: at one eight seven seven eight h ope n Y

666
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 4: or text h ope n Why.

667
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 3: Right, but when you say sh money, it just makes

668
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 3: me miss football season. So makes me a little sad.

669
00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 3: We're in April.

670
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 2: But let's go, I know, right, let's go to start.

671
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 1: That should be fun.

672
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair, that's fair to fire the coach.

673
00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: Yeah that is accurate, wrong podcast, But we'll get there soon.

674
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 3: We're gonna go through these kind of quickly now because

675
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 3: we're just you know, looking at the props on the board,

676
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: and I want to start with position favorite. We've done

677
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 3: this a few times and we've gotten a few of

678
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 3: these rights. So let's uh start with wide receiver. So

679
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 3: McMillan is down to minus two fifty Goldens plus one seventy.

680
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:54,960
Speaker 3: I guess the most interesting thing is two weeks ago

681
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 3: it was minus three hundred plus two hundred, So it's

682
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 3: going into Golden's direction at the moment. I mean, we've

683
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 3: talked about those numerous times. I still feel like at

684
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 3: plus one seventy, I would touch Golden because I still

685
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 3: see McMillan sliding. You know, we're going to talk about

686
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 3: it a little bit later, but I mean in the twenties,

687
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 3: in the thirties, Buffalo, Baltimore, Like, I feel like there's

688
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 3: options for McMillan h later in the draft, and I

689
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 3: just see Golden his edp getting shorter.

690
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think, you know, that's kind of the way

691
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 4: to go. Now, Ideally you would have already invested because

692
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,360
Speaker 4: you know, this was something we kind of had the

693
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 4: pulse of. Now, now the odds are getting to a

694
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 4: point where it's probably probably wanted at least two to one,

695
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 4: you know, I think that's that's kind of you know one,

696
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: you know, three to one could with McMillan, it still

697
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 4: is a favorite. So now it's getting to the point

698
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 4: where I don't think there's is much value. But if

699
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: you've already got some golden futures and you really want

700
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:55,000
Speaker 4: to fade McMillan, I mean, hey, maybe maybe we even

701
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 4: sprinkle something on Buca or I mean Luther Burden's fifteen

702
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 4: fifty to one, I feel like he's he's an intriguing prospect.

703
00:34:03,560 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 4: I don't I mean, it's I don't think it happens,

704
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 4: but it's probably more likely than fifty to one. So

705
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 4: if you're already in that market with Golden I think

706
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 4: he got a good, good thing going. But you know,

707
00:34:14,440 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 4: we'll see how all of these McMillan ods get because

708
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 4: there could be a point where if McMillan, like if

709
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 4: Golden over takes McMillan, which very well could happen if

710
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:27,320
Speaker 4: you know enough mocks kind of go that way, it

711
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 4: would probably be time to invest in McMillan because he's

712
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: still kind of been the consensus favorite for most of

713
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 4: the offseason.

714
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: And again, I don't.

715
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 4: Think much nothing's changing, except more people might be paying

716
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 4: attention or you know, kind of changing their minds. But

717
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 4: I don't think much has changed with the two players.

718
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,600
Speaker 4: So even this movement is it's it's sharp right now,

719
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 4: but it's still a little bit artificial because nothing's really changed.

720
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just feel like it's preference at this point.

721
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 3: All right, let's go tight end. I like Loveland a

722
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,160
Speaker 3: few weeks ago, he's still four fifty. Warren's minus seven

723
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 3: to fifty. I think that that's dead. I just don't see.

724
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 3: I really thought there would be some momentum there, but

725
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 3: it seems like Warren, if anything, is kind of staying

726
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 3: pretty steady. I see him New Orleans, I see him Chicago,

727
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: I see a few Indianapolis as we've talked about, and

728
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 3: it feels like Indianapolis has him as their preference. But

729
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 3: I still have my a little bit of level and position,

730
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 3: so I will be staying tight. But there's nothing to

731
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 3: do there, right, I.

732
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,319
Speaker 4: Mean yeah, And the one thing I'll say is it

733
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 4: kind of relates more to just other markets surrounding the

734
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 4: you know, in the teens and surrounding the Colts in

735
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 4: terms of draft position. But when we say, like the

736
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,399
Speaker 4: Colts are, you know, it's like their preference to draft him,

737
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 4: but really more mock drafters preference to mock him to

738
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 4: the because like the codes and tight end is you know,

739
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 4: everybody's just kind of connecting those two because of the

740
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: you know, black four way black black hole that was

741
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 4: the four way committee of both Grant and Cocks Will

742
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,879
Speaker 4: Mallory sometimes and who am I forgetting ogle Tree last year?

743
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 4: So yeah, uh they could use the tight end absolutely,

744
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:12,760
Speaker 4: But it's also one of those things where as mock drafters,

745
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 4: we're just kind of assigning him to the most likely team.

746
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 4: Maybe that team maybe that things change, maybe you know,

747
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 4: they move, maybe there's other movement that could change everything around.

748
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, the market's pretty dead.

749
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 4: I think it's you know, if you're if you're gonna

750
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 4: bet on this tight end market, I think you look

751
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:33,319
Speaker 4: at you try to find a way to bet on

752
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 4: where Warren's gonna go, when he's gonna go, or or

753
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 4: love one but not loveman overtaking him because I just

754
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 4: don't think.

755
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 1: I think.

756
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 4: I just think Warren's a complete tight end and there's

757
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,760
Speaker 4: just not this massive appetite for pass catchers, and there's

758
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 4: like we said, offensive linemen are getting shorter rods. We

759
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 4: know the quarterbacks might even be able to undervalue at

760
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 4: this point, and there's some great defensive players at the top,

761
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:59,839
Speaker 4: So uh yeah, I think if anything, you know, it's

762
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 4: it's it's you got to look at their individual markets.

763
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 4: But Loveland is more of like a no pass catching guy,

764
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 4: whereas Warren, I think is a little bit more of

765
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 4: a complete player. So that's why I think he's pretty

766
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:13,400
Speaker 4: locked in to go first.

767
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 3: The one thing I would consider is if you see

768
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 3: Loveland markets to the Colts, like if Warren's gone, I

769
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 3: think that becomes more likely than his odds would take

770
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 3: into consideration.

771
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:26,960
Speaker 2: But I don't see those markets yet.

772
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 3: Offensive line, Campbell's the favorite now now minus one fifty

773
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 3: five member plus one twenty member was minus two seventy

774
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 3: two weeks ago when we had that flip.

775
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 2: To me, I would actually nibble back.

776
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 3: And try to get that plus at plus one twenty

777
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:48,320
Speaker 3: because I do feel like tons of mocks have Campbell

778
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 3: at the four slot. I think that could change, so

779
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 3: I would probably nibble back.

780
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:56,759
Speaker 4: Do you nibble at Banks, you know round ten to one?

781
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 4: I know you talked about him. Yeah, mine up some boards.

782
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 4: You think that this is too much or.

783
00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: I think it's a little much.

784
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 3: I think, and again, I see some information from reporters

785
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 3: who have like what you call good information on certain teams.

786
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 3: But you're right, it's mock central, it's mock cabin. It's

787
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 3: pretty much how we're analyzing most of this. I feel

788
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 3: like Banks is the third guy. I'm not necessarily seeing

789
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 3: him get into that slot to beat both of them.

790
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:30,440
Speaker 3: Maybe one of them ten to ones. Intriguing, but I

791
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,400
Speaker 3: would probably just take member at this point.

792
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, and you know, hopefully we see his ad

793
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,919
Speaker 4: get a little longer, even to kind of a spot

794
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:40,760
Speaker 4: where Campbell's were, you know, where they were at Flip Flop,

795
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 4: because again, this is what we're trying to do. We're

796
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 4: just trying to essentially we get both sides of these

797
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 4: markets when there's so much uncertainty, and we just win

798
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 4: either way if we can kind of narrow it down

799
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 4: to like the most likely outcome and the second most likely.

800
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 1: And I think.

801
00:38:54,680 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 4: You're almost certainly right, you know, I just bring up

802
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 4: Banks because we've seen crazier things happen sometimes, we think,

803
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 4: especially with positions that aren't like skill, sometimes there's just

804
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 4: you know, less information, and a team might consider a

805
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 4: guy that you know, the media didn't.

806
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, if it's Campbell and Membo.

807
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 4: And we think that it is going to be that

808
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 4: in terms of you know, that top top eight, then

809
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:20,879
Speaker 4: it's probably gonna be one of those two. And yeah,

810
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 4: we got the flip flop Cauz, So I would take

811
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 4: Membo at you know, plus money, but I'm hoping he

812
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,720
Speaker 4: gets to you know, plus two fifty plus three hundred,

813
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 4: like like Campbell was a couple of weeks ago.

814
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 3: All right, DL edge is pretty simple. It doesn't take

815
00:39:35,360 --> 00:39:38,239
Speaker 3: into consideration Carter so abual Carter out of the conversation.

816
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 3: Graham's minus seven hundred, he was six hundred, Stewart's eleven

817
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: to one. I don't think he touched it. I think

818
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:48,800
Speaker 3: Graham's pretty likely to be that first one off the board.

819
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 3: In terms of the dB, will Johnson minus one forty,

820
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 3: Baron plus one ten. Obviously that market does not take

821
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 3: into Travis Hunter. I don't really have an opinion. I

822
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 3: think Will Johnson more likely, and I think it probably

823
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 3: just breathes into the odds a little bit. Any any

824
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:06,279
Speaker 3: thought there before we move on.

825
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, it's interesting that Baron is moving up.

826
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 4: I mean it seems like noise, sure, but I think

827
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 4: the ideal would be because you know, they're both or

828
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 4: Baron's already at such short odds, is that this is

829
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 4: one of those situations where you're probably looking to back

830
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 4: the favorite as his odds, you know, get defluated. So

831
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 4: if we're getting if we're starting to hear more Baron hype,

832
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 4: and what what usually could happen in these situations is

833
00:40:37,640 --> 00:40:40,840
Speaker 4: that it's not he might not necessarily overtake him. It

834
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 4: just might be just like teams maybe aren't as big

835
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,240
Speaker 4: into the wide receiver market early, they might be bigger

836
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 4: into the cornerback market. You know that we thought, and

837
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 4: both of those guys go earlier than expected, But it

838
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily mean like one guy will get jumped over.

839
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 4: And so yeah, i'd be looking to get Johnson if

840
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 4: he if he somehow got to that's.

841
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: Even money or better, that would be ideal.

842
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,360
Speaker 4: But even at you know, buying this one twenty or

843
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 4: something like that for a guy that's pretty much been

844
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 4: the favorite outside of this, again, a lot of I

845
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 4: feel like it's artificial hyper at this point, I'll take

846
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:14,879
Speaker 4: that all day.

847
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Johnson's third on that list in terms of

848
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: stock up average DPS, right behind the offensive offensive lineman.

849
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: So yes, at the moment he is hot.

850
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,319
Speaker 4: I think I think, you know, going back to what

851
00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:29,319
Speaker 4: we kind of a few other spots we touched on,

852
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 4: where it was like at the end of the pick,

853
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 4: we just you said, you know, people have the Saints

854
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 4: to do it, And I feel like the Saints are

855
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,839
Speaker 4: kind of the chameleon here where no one really knows

856
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 4: what they're gonna do. And now a lot of people

857
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 4: have decided that, hey, maybe they're gonna end up taking

858
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:49,239
Speaker 4: a quarterback, and because you know, quarterback is such a

859
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 4: you know, popular and the most hyper visible position. Now,

860
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 4: I think that's kind of also deflating the Johnson because

861
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 4: a lot of people thought the Saints would take him.

862
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 4: So it's kind of interesting in that sense that I

863
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:06,319
Speaker 4: think New Orleans is causing a lot of a lot

864
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 4: of us a lot of trouble in terms we just

865
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,120
Speaker 4: don't really know what they're gonna do, and that's kind

866
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 4: of affecting. It's having an effect on some other markets

867
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:15,280
Speaker 4: that we can probably just kind.

868
00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: Of benefit by fading the hype.

869
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:19,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, so they're a mess. I mean, they are all

870
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 3: over the place. Especially if you don't think Shador is

871
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 3: the answer at nine, there is a lot to consider.

872
00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: They still have.

873
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: You know Derek Carr?

874
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 4: I mean yeah, obviously, Yeah, So, I mean I think

875
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 4: they think he's the answer.

876
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: They wouldn't have brought him back, right, so who knows.

877
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 3: All right, let's go through some props right now. I

878
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:43,279
Speaker 3: have just five of these listened. I just went your

879
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: quick thoughts as I thought they were intriguing, and then

880
00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 3: we were going to finish on position to team markets

881
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:49,479
Speaker 3: little updates there.

882
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:50,919
Speaker 2: Hit on a few of them.

883
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,200
Speaker 3: So to me, two and a half quarterbacks is just

884
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 3: in the first round is an intriguing prop to minus

885
00:42:56,120 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 3: one seventy five over plus two hundred under the odds

886
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 3: right now, any quick thoughts on two and a half?

887
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 3: I mean, obviously you've been talking about Dart moving up,

888
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 3: but are you willing to.

889
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 2: Pay the price that he stays in the first round.

890
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: At those odds?

891
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 4: Probably not, because I want I alto again, I think

892
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 4: we have to kind of. I think it's been all

893
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 4: artificial hype with or the opposite of which with the

894
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:27,200
Speaker 4: with Sanders, But that's really been kind of the The

895
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 4: bigger unknown is.

896
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:30,719
Speaker 1: How do teams actually feel about Dart.

897
00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 4: We've been hearing some whispers, so probably to the positive,

898
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,520
Speaker 4: but the odds are priced that way, so uh, it'd

899
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 4: be a situation.

900
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 1: Where I'd be looking to fade it.

901
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:42,719
Speaker 4: But at two to one is not you know, those

902
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: aren't good enough odds and there's much better ways to

903
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,879
Speaker 4: kind of play a should or slide or a Dart

904
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:49,920
Speaker 4: slide or something like that.

905
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: So nothing for me on this one.

906
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 4: If I, if forced, I would take the over. I

907
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:59,240
Speaker 4: do think there are enough quarterback needy teams and enough

908
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 4: teams at the top that would be willing to kind

909
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 4: of move around that that would push me to that

910
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:08,480
Speaker 4: to three be in the number.

911
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,720
Speaker 3: And speaking of Dart, his draft position is a little

912
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 3: different depending on the book, which is intriguing. It's I

913
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,560
Speaker 3: see twenty one and a half's twenty three and a

914
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 3: halfs and twenty four and a half. Now, obviously juice

915
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 3: different at all the books, and you know, probably comes

916
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 3: out to a little bit even. But every half position

917
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 3: in full position on those over unders is like really

918
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 3: really valuable, especially because if you notice, I mean everyone

919
00:44:32,600 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 3: is setting all the books are setting those over unders

920
00:44:35,239 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 3: right over or under their like projected team. The other

921
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 3: ones would be like Golden and McMillan are seventeen and

922
00:44:41,960 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 3: a half while Seattle's at eighteen, Hampton's at nineteen and

923
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:46,840
Speaker 3: a half, with Denver at twenty, like they know what

924
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: they're doing. But I think with Dart it's really intriguing

925
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 3: because you really have like a two or three pick middle.

926
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:55,759
Speaker 3: Any quick thoughts there before we move on.

927
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, you sounded like my guy, our guy, Sean Kernery

928
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 4: real quick with the you know, every yard in this

929
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 4: market is so valuable, every every every half a draft slot.

930
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 4: But now, so I think the way to play Dart

931
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 4: is you gotta go with the longer odds because looking

932
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 4: at his median, which is in the twenties, you know,

933
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 4: I think that obviously means there's the books are saying

934
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 4: it's somewhere around fifty fifty that he goes higher lower.

935
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 4: But if you're looking at picks like number two, number three,

936
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 4: number four, like those those four or five top picks,

937
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 4: which I where I think there's some real potential there

938
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 4: because especially with the shout or slide, I think that's

939
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 4: how you want to bet those, and those were going

940
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 4: what like fifty to one, seventy five to one. Yeah,

941
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 4: you can't bet every pick, and you're only you're not

942
00:45:44,520 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 4: really getting much incentive to bet the under.

943
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:49,640
Speaker 1: That's the way I would go. I would I would.

944
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:52,440
Speaker 4: Bet he goes sooner than you know, twenty. You know,

945
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:54,759
Speaker 4: I bet everybody goes in the top twenty essentially, so

946
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 4: I would go under. But I just don't think I'm

947
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 4: getting enough value, Like that's not one of It's not

948
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:03,399
Speaker 4: like a median type bet that I want to make

949
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 4: given the other markets out there, because I think there's

950
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:10,319
Speaker 4: a lot more of a chance for him. It's like

951
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:13,959
Speaker 4: a you know, why range outcomes where if he could

952
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 4: if he does go higher than that, you know, or lower,

953
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 4: I should say than that twenty one, twenty three, twenty

954
00:46:19,239 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 4: four and a half, he's probably going.

955
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: Very early.

956
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 4: So I would just kind of bet on that. And

957
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 4: I mean if I if he goes like eighteenth and

958
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 4: I miss out, I'm okay with that.

959
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 3: And just to be clear, so draft order here Denver twenty,

960
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh twenty one, LA Chargers twenty two, Green Bay twenty three,

961
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:40,839
Speaker 3: Minnesota twenty four. So that is basically you're trying to

962
00:46:41,040 --> 00:46:44,880
Speaker 3: pinpoint and pluck out which teams you feel like, you know,

963
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 3: wouldn't look that direction. Obviously, Minnesota is interesting, green Bay

964
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,880
Speaker 3: probably wouldn't. So the twenty three and a half. Twenty

965
00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:56,400
Speaker 3: four and a half feels intriguing to me because you know,

966
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: you might as well go under twenty two and a

967
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 3: half because you're not going to think those two teams

968
00:47:00,360 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 3: are under twenty one and a half. If you understand

969
00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 3: what I'm saying, all right, let's do two more here

970
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 3: and then we can do positions. I feel like a Mecca.

971
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 3: I'm not going to say his name, right, A Mecca Abuka. Yeah,

972
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,880
Speaker 3: that's the way I'm gonna say it. To go in

973
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 3: the first round is an interesting prop bet at the moment,

974
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,760
Speaker 3: just considering that wide receiver is two and a half

975
00:47:21,000 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: with the over minus one seventy the under plus two ten.

976
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:29,280
Speaker 3: But at Caesar's they actually have a Mecha's draft position

977
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 3: over under twenty eight and a half, and it's pretty

978
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 3: much even either way. So you kind of have the

979
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 3: choice of I think he's probably the third wide receiver,

980
00:47:38,640 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 3: so the first bet of over or under is probably

981
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 3: him as well, and then you can kind of mess

982
00:47:43,880 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 3: around with a few picks there at the end because

983
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 3: you still have Buffalo, you still have Baltimore. There's a

984
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 3: lot of people still sitting there over that twenty eight

985
00:47:53,960 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 3: and a half range where I mean, he might fall

986
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 3: in the first round as well, so I feel like

987
00:47:58,080 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 3: there's a few options with him.

988
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:01,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Baltimore is interesting.

989
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 4: I think Baltimore may may end up being more in

990
00:48:04,320 --> 00:48:06,319
Speaker 4: the market for a wide receiver than we think. So,

991
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 4: you know, depending what they do in the next couple

992
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,640
Speaker 4: of weeks or or in the draft, they could they

993
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 4: could be a team that that is a potential landing spot. Now,

994
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 4: the you know, the question is how do you want

995
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 4: to attack this market, because, like we said, we don't

996
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 4: really know the appetite now for wide receivers in the

997
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,759
Speaker 4: first round. It just seems like, you know, reading the

998
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:33,239
Speaker 4: tea leaves, there's just a lot of teams that have

999
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 4: needs that would kind of usurp the need for a

1000
00:48:37,320 --> 00:48:41,319
Speaker 4: wide receiver. And uh, these wide receivers, you know, they're

1001
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,799
Speaker 4: kind of sexy picks, so people they're always I feel

1002
00:48:43,840 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 4: like they're gonna get They're a little bit inflated right now. So,

1003
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 4: like I said, I think even a sprinkle on Abuka

1004
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 4: to be the number one receiver taken is such the

1005
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 4: craziest thing. And I think it was thirteen to one,

1006
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,960
Speaker 4: so because I just, you know, I don't think you

1007
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 4: want to go with the over at the those juice

1008
00:49:00,600 --> 00:49:03,520
Speaker 4: of odds and then you know the twenty eight and

1009
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 4: a half is it is more interesting.

1010
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 1: But you know, there could be a situation where UH.

1011
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 4: Wide receivers market is depressed and he you know, he

1012
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 4: does go lower, but he's the number one got taken,

1013
00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 4: your number two guy taken. So I think I would

1014
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 4: just try to find markets with him to be at

1015
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 4: longer odds. So right now you can get him to

1016
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 4: be the first taken in I'm sure that leading up

1017
00:49:29,239 --> 00:49:31,279
Speaker 4: to the draft there'll be markets on you know, the

1018
00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 4: second receiver taken as well, and I think you want

1019
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 4: to sprinkle.

1020
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 1: Some there as well.

1021
00:49:35,120 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 4: And that's how I play that more so than the

1022
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 4: media in general, just because of the amount of markets,

1023
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: the sure amount of markets available at the draft. I

1024
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 4: think this is a time where I'm playing less of

1025
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 4: those kind of like over under media type of plays

1026
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,759
Speaker 4: than I wouldn't like just like a random prop debt

1027
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 4: slater and something like that, just because there's no real

1028
00:49:57,560 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 4: way to.

1029
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:01,720
Speaker 1: You know, find those true odds.

1030
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 4: Projecting projection wise, the winner is if let's say we're

1031
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 4: trying to you know, we're projecting yardage for Brian Thomas

1032
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,239
Speaker 4: Junior or something, and we you know, we can kind

1033
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:13,160
Speaker 4: of have an idea of like okay, based on the

1034
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,640
Speaker 4: matchup and the quarterback and this and that you kind

1035
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 4: of have a number where it's here, it's so like

1036
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 4: it's just so uncertain and one or two moves or

1037
00:50:25,120 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 4: just kind of things that don't go your way. And

1038
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 4: there's you know, thirty two teams competing and their thought

1039
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 4: processes all interweaving versus a game where it's like two

1040
00:50:34,120 --> 00:50:36,040
Speaker 4: that it makes it tough to really nail some of

1041
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,879
Speaker 4: these or the incentive, I should say, is not.

1042
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,280
Speaker 1: As great here to nail some of these these medians.

1043
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 4: So I'd be looking I am intrigued by Abuka, but

1044
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:47,359
Speaker 4: I would be looking at longer odds for markets for him.

1045
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 3: The longest price I see him to be the first

1046
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:52,319
Speaker 3: wide receiver taken, which again I think you're gonna find

1047
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:54,759
Speaker 3: markets for second, which might be more intriguing closer to

1048
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,360
Speaker 3: the draft. But he's fourteen to one and burdens sixty

1049
00:50:57,440 --> 00:51:00,360
Speaker 3: six to one mgm, both those prices those he.

1050
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,280
Speaker 4: Goes, Yeah, I got, he makes noise, but he's intriguing.

1051
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:05,520
Speaker 3: I mean, but him to go to a second wide

1052
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 3: receiver I guess would be something I would potentially look at,

1053
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 3: but I'd have to see the odds. All right, let's

1054
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 3: do position the team before we get out of here.

1055
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 3: I'm going to open it up. I've taken a bunch

1056
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:18,239
Speaker 3: of notes here on just some interesting changes and teams and.

1057
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:18,839
Speaker 2: Stuff like that.

1058
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 3: But is there anything off the top that you just

1059
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:22,960
Speaker 3: find you have to talk about right now?

1060
00:51:23,200 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 4: I mean, I think there's always going to be teams

1061
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 4: that kind of fly under the radar because you know,

1062
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 4: they were good last year and you know, team's kind

1063
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:34,719
Speaker 4: of in that bottom of the draft. I think we

1064
00:51:34,760 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 4: spent so much time talking about, you know, the first

1065
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 4: few picks and then get into those middle guys. But

1066
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 4: I wonder, I wonder what a team like Baltimore is

1067
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:44,239
Speaker 4: going to do because they they made a surprise move

1068
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:46,319
Speaker 4: last year and they go out get Dereck Henry and

1069
00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 4: they made waves. You know, might they do something with

1070
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 4: a veteran this year and that could change their their

1071
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:55,919
Speaker 4: draft priority or you know, might they be looking because

1072
00:51:55,960 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 4: I think I think they might be looking for more

1073
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 4: weapons for Lamar and right now, like all the offense,

1074
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:05,240
Speaker 4: because their lineup is you know, they've had their core guys,

1075
00:52:05,239 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 4: and they're kind of set, you know, taking a receiver

1076
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:09,879
Speaker 4: first to twelve to one, you know, talking about maybe

1077
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 4: that's a potential landing spot for a Buca or even

1078
00:52:12,280 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 4: I mean Golden tet. One of those guys could could fall.

1079
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,239
Speaker 4: I think I think they're looking for some speed, So

1080
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:22,880
Speaker 4: I actually think Abuka or Golden probably be the bets.

1081
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: But you know, taking a receiver, they're like twelve to one.

1082
00:52:27,280 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 4: And uh, and even a tight end they're fifty to

1083
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 4: one or greater at pretty much every book. You know, Mike,

1084
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 4: they might they be a dark horse for a guy

1085
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,239
Speaker 4: like uh like lovelind if if Warrens or even I

1086
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 4: mean Warren, you know, maybe they who knows because you

1087
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,879
Speaker 4: know their team that they do play Biggs, right, they

1088
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 4: play uh, Andrews likely Cohler, Rick hard like, so they

1089
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,399
Speaker 4: play enough Bigs to where I think a tight end

1090
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 4: may be valuable to them as well. So I know defense,

1091
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 4: and you know, the defensive line is kind of that

1092
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 4: position everybody's looking at. But I think there is a

1093
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 4: there's a chance that they they're looking. They're still looking

1094
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 4: offense because they they got to get they got a maximuize.

1095
00:53:13,440 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 4: I mean, how good is them are being for him

1096
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 4: to still kind of be trying to sniff that first championship.

1097
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,759
Speaker 4: They might they might feel the pressure and really feel

1098
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 4: like they want to make a splash with a with

1099
00:53:24,440 --> 00:53:27,439
Speaker 4: a skill player. So this is a team where I'd

1100
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 4: actually be looking for an offensive skill player. Usually you

1101
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 4: want to fade that because it's just you know, it's

1102
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 4: it's kind of the people, because of the fantasy and stuff,

1103
00:53:37,719 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 4: you just know more of those guys. But in this case, Yeah,

1104
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,279
Speaker 4: I think Baltimore was really interesting for a pass catcher,

1105
00:53:42,360 --> 00:53:43,880
Speaker 4: especially a wide receiver.

1106
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:44,759
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1107
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 3: I think specific markets like mc millan to Baltimore, I

1108
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 3: think is intriguing. The one market in terms of specific

1109
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 3: position with Baltimore, I kind of like safety, uh now

1110
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,759
Speaker 3: Starks has to kind of fall there to get there,

1111
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:03,279
Speaker 3: and a warri could make his way to Baltimore as well.

1112
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 3: But I feel like I see seven to one, I

1113
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: see seven fifty. I think those odds are intriguing out

1114
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 3: a lot of people believe defensive line. I think wide

1115
00:54:12,000 --> 00:54:14,759
Speaker 3: receivers cool too. I think safety and wide receiver at

1116
00:54:14,800 --> 00:54:17,480
Speaker 3: like twelve to one and seven plus seven to fifty

1117
00:54:17,680 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 3: are good ways to attack Baltimore at the moment d

1118
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 3: line plus one fifty. It is the favorite. But that

1119
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 3: is I think safety for me and seeing a few

1120
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 3: of those guys mocked there. And it also kind of

1121
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 3: makes sense based off of how you know their team,

1122
00:54:33,480 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 3: their scheme, et cetera. So that would be the way

1123
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 3: I would take Baltimore anyone any other teams here intrigue.

1124
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,960
Speaker 1: You Well, I'm just gonna going back to Baltimore real quick.

1125
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:43,840
Speaker 4: Interest thin thing about them and the reason why I

1126
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 4: think you're kind of on the right track is looking

1127
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 4: at them as a team in this market to bet on,

1128
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:50,239
Speaker 4: you know, because you want that kind of uncertainty.

1129
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 1: Is Baltimore tends to go with their board, right.

1130
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 4: They go with the best guy on their board, and

1131
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 4: it's usually kind of irrespective of position. Now, they I

1132
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:02,280
Speaker 4: do end up usually doing a good job of filling

1133
00:55:02,320 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 4: the needs, but they're usually just it's because they're bored.

1134
00:55:07,600 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 4: Is just usually better than most teams board. I think

1135
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 4: they draft really well and they have done so for

1136
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 4: a while. So I do think Baltimore just because of

1137
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:18,879
Speaker 4: their track record and what they you know, what they've

1138
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 4: been known to do, that they are an intriguing team

1139
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 4: in you know, first drafted player markets, but where we

1140
00:55:27,360 --> 00:55:27,759
Speaker 4: go next.

1141
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 3: I'm just still curious about Miami. Armstead retires. We were

1142
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 3: talking offensive line there there a little while ago. The

1143
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 3: odds are extremely different based off different books. Last week

1144
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 3: it was minus one twenty one book plus one seventy another.

1145
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:44,680
Speaker 3: Now it's still minus one ten to one book plus

1146
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 3: one ten another. So you're still seeing relatively different odds

1147
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:51,960
Speaker 3: at different places. But kind of like Houston, who offensive

1148
00:55:52,000 --> 00:55:54,840
Speaker 3: line went from minus one seventy five to minus two thirty.

1149
00:55:55,200 --> 00:55:58,400
Speaker 3: I think there is an exaggeration. I still feel like

1150
00:55:58,440 --> 00:56:01,919
Speaker 3: Miami's in the market now. The issue might be that

1151
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 3: your top two dogs from the offensive line are gone,

1152
00:56:05,320 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 3: and you got to see do they like banks because

1153
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:11,840
Speaker 3: that's probably the banks zone. But I feel like offensive

1154
00:56:11,880 --> 00:56:14,320
Speaker 3: line at plus money with Miami is intriguing.

1155
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it is.

1156
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 4: It's probably gonna get it's probably already past the point

1157
00:56:20,480 --> 00:56:23,279
Speaker 4: like it's it's uh, it's getting to that point where

1158
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 4: it's the talk almost and I would get, you know,

1159
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,399
Speaker 4: what are they because like, now are we doing? Are

1160
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:33,680
Speaker 4: we still going all in? Is it like a mini rebuilt?

1161
00:56:33,680 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 4: Like what are we doing if we're Miami? Because you know,

1162
00:56:37,719 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 4: with Armstead and now and remember you had the whole

1163
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 4: situation with with Tyreek Hill. Do they do they try

1164
00:56:44,600 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 4: to just move him and get you know, as like

1165
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 4: as much as they can in return, and does that

1166
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 4: then put them in the market for a wide receiver

1167
00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 4: you know who? Miami is another one of these teams

1168
00:56:54,440 --> 00:56:57,480
Speaker 4: that I think correct maybe move back right right, Yeah,

1169
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,440
Speaker 4: we we just kind of look at Miami and we

1170
00:56:59,480 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 4: see the eye as holes, but again not not really

1171
00:57:03,840 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 4: thinking about, well, what if they make a blockbuster trade?

1172
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:09,959
Speaker 4: And if they did, I think Tyreek Hill is probably

1173
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 4: the first candidate that comes to mind just because of

1174
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 4: you know, all the all the craziness that happened, uh

1175
00:57:15,960 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 4: in the last was the last week of last Yeah,

1176
00:57:18,360 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 4: the last game week eight week eight team game last season.

1177
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 4: So uh yeah, I think Miami would be quite interesting

1178
00:57:25,080 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 4: a wide receiver. But that's how you got to start

1179
00:57:27,320 --> 00:57:29,880
Speaker 4: thinking about a lot of these teams in this in

1180
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 4: this range is like okay, if they if they make

1181
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 4: a move or a move is made, like what then

1182
00:57:34,920 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 4: what happens? Because these are just you know, it's kind

1183
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 4: of just in order of team media or it's like oh,

1184
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:40,960
Speaker 4: line defense, yeah, we get it.

1185
00:57:41,800 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 1: I mean I've say tight end.

1186
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:46,080
Speaker 4: As you know, it's like the number four or five

1187
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 4: and for my well, number five for Miami, and like

1188
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:52,959
Speaker 4: why I feel like they're they're pretty set it tight end. Yeah,

1189
00:57:53,000 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 4: it's yeah, I say so, I think, I think. And

1190
00:57:57,000 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 4: then running back, I get why you know it's long,

1191
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:01,560
Speaker 4: but why receips does stick out to me just because

1192
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:04,880
Speaker 4: of the Tyreek Hill situation to close the year.

1193
00:58:05,640 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 3: The only other one that I wanted to talk about

1194
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 3: was Buffalo. You mentioned Baltimore. You know, you look at

1195
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:14,240
Speaker 3: Buffalo's depth chart in terms of wide receiver, and there's

1196
00:58:14,280 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 3: just a lot of names there. I mean, obviously they

1197
00:58:16,400 --> 00:58:19,880
Speaker 3: bring up colemb they get Coleman, then they add Joshua Palmer,

1198
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 3: they just signed kahilshak here, they still have Samuel there.

1199
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 3: They even have Channault on the roster. Like, they just

1200
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 3: have a ton of different wide receivers. I wanted to

1201
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 3: think wide receiver was a decent option there. I mean,

1202
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:33,840
Speaker 3: I see it as high as sixteen to one. I mean,

1203
00:58:33,840 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 3: I think it would take a slide from like McMillan

1204
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 3: or you know, you know, I don't think Golden makes

1205
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 3: it to them, but I do think McMillan is an

1206
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:42,520
Speaker 3: interesting option.

1207
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 2: Maybe he's is he too much like Keon Coleman.

1208
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 3: I feel like they're kind of similar wide receivers in

1209
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:50,280
Speaker 3: the sense, But that was what I was looking at.

1210
00:58:50,520 --> 00:58:54,520
Speaker 3: Cornerback better, Yeah, cornerback plus three thirty was the other

1211
00:58:54,560 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 3: one I was looking at for Buffalo. But I do

1212
00:58:56,680 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 3: feel like Buffalo might be and the reason and I

1213
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 3: think Baltimore and Buffalo and the and I've mentioned Casey

1214
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 3: as well. I think good teams are easier to predict,

1215
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 3: Like it's just easier to predict where they're going to

1216
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 3: go when I feel like they make the right decision

1217
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 3: more often than not.

1218
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:17,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's you know, it just really comes down to

1219
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 4: do we think they'll they'll trade or anything like that,

1220
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:22,760
Speaker 4: or that they because I think, you know, you wonder

1221
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 4: you mentioned cornerback and yeah, you just wonder about their

1222
00:59:26,120 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 4: you know, how do they feel about their secondary I

1223
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,600
Speaker 4: think the thing about receiver with Buffalo is that they

1224
00:59:32,720 --> 00:59:35,520
Speaker 4: kind of have this mentality that they don't need.

1225
00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 1: A top dog.

1226
00:59:36,680 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 4: You know, we thought they were maybe bluffing and it

1227
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:41,960
Speaker 4: was just kind of a nasty split with with the

1228
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 4: with Stefan Diggs, but we saw them really just spread

1229
00:59:45,360 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 4: the ball around lean on a run game. Uh, you know,

1230
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 4: they acquire Amari Cooper and don't really do anything with them,

1231
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 4: so you know.

1232
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: It's hard.

1233
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 4: And then even Kinkaid, who they took early, is a

1234
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:59,280
Speaker 4: guy who probably a bit under utilized. It's tough for

1235
00:59:59,320 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 4: me to like say that they will take a wide receiver.

1236
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 1: Again sixteen to one.

1237
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 2: It's fair, it's.

1238
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 1: Fair, it's fair, I guess it. Maybe, you know, maybe if.

1239
01:00:09,600 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 4: They're down on on Coleman, which I don't think they are,

1240
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 4: but I mean, yeah, it's just really tough to get

1241
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:16,080
Speaker 4: a read on how they feel about their passing game.

1242
01:00:16,560 --> 01:00:20,920
Speaker 4: But I would kind of maybe look at that the secondary.

1243
01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:23,320
Speaker 4: You know, you mentioned cornerback and an even safety. I

1244
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 4: think I think that's those are positions where they need

1245
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 4: to make sure that they're they're straight because they know

1246
01:00:28,640 --> 01:00:31,480
Speaker 4: they're gonna have to go up against Kansas City every year.

1247
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,800
Speaker 4: They know they're gonna have to probably not get a

1248
01:00:34,880 --> 01:00:37,760
Speaker 4: pass at at Burrow, missing the playoffs every year. And

1249
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,880
Speaker 4: you got Chase and Higgins there, So that secondary, i'd

1250
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 4: be that those are the two that.

1251
01:00:42,280 --> 01:00:43,040
Speaker 1: Stand out for me.

1252
01:00:43,760 --> 01:00:47,360
Speaker 4: Uh, safety and and and corner I think those those

1253
01:00:47,440 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 4: are where Buffalo should go and just the fact that

1254
01:00:50,680 --> 01:00:53,080
Speaker 4: they've been so spread around, I'd be I'm a little

1255
01:00:53,160 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 4: less bullish on on wide receiver, but it did last year.

1256
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,760
Speaker 3: Corner corner to me though, is probably I think it's

1257
01:00:58,760 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 3: a little mispriced, Like I think think plus three thirty range,

1258
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 3: it should be closer to DL and edge, which is

1259
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 3: the odds on favorite at the moment.

1260
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 2: So that would probably be my bet.

1261
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, because it's I mean, it's also it's tough to say.

1262
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:17,560
Speaker 4: After Buffalo goes you know, Kincaid Coleman back to back

1263
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 4: years and they're spreading the ball around like another like

1264
01:01:22,400 --> 01:01:27,200
Speaker 4: pass catcher essentially in the first that would just I

1265
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 4: don't know if that would be something that that they

1266
01:01:30,760 --> 01:01:32,360
Speaker 4: I feel like they feel like they got to go

1267
01:01:32,400 --> 01:01:34,120
Speaker 4: a different direction. I feel like it's probably gonna be

1268
01:01:34,160 --> 01:01:36,960
Speaker 4: the defense. But again, there're always could be traded. There

1269
01:01:37,000 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 4: always could be a guy.

1270
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:38,760
Speaker 1: That falls to them.

1271
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:41,200
Speaker 4: And the one thing about receiver which I'll say is

1272
01:01:41,880 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 4: it's not a bad bet for these teams in this

1273
01:01:43,920 --> 01:01:48,080
Speaker 4: range because it just seems like receivers might be falling

1274
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:50,720
Speaker 4: a little bit more than expected in the draft period,

1275
01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:53,400
Speaker 4: you know, so the first ride receiver might not come

1276
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:56,240
Speaker 4: off the board until later than we think the same

1277
01:01:56,280 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 4: goes for the second. So that could lead a team

1278
01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 4: like like a Buffalo or you know, a Baltimore or

1279
01:02:02,760 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 4: somebody that maybe we're not thinking of in that market

1280
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:08,560
Speaker 4: as much to draft a player just because the US

1281
01:02:08,600 --> 01:02:09,080
Speaker 4: best player of.

1282
01:02:09,080 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 3: V two things that I was gonna say is so

1283
01:02:11,840 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 3: Buffalo is thirty fifty six and sixty two, so they

1284
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:17,480
Speaker 3: have Minnesota's pick at fifty six, which if you have

1285
01:02:17,560 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 3: fifty six and sixty two, you could probably find a

1286
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,600
Speaker 3: wide receiver if that's something that you're looking for and

1287
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 3: not have to use that first round pick on it.

1288
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:26,200
Speaker 3: The way I tend to try to attack this, which

1289
01:02:26,240 --> 01:02:27,800
Speaker 3: you could tell me if I'm right or wrong here,

1290
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:31,120
Speaker 3: but I feel like the really good teams the thirty

1291
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:36,200
Speaker 3: two to twenty seven range tend to be very close

1292
01:02:36,240 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 3: to a championship, so they tend to take a chance

1293
01:02:39,000 --> 01:02:41,760
Speaker 3: on maybe a skill player, a worthy a this, a

1294
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:44,880
Speaker 3: that that makes it into that zone that might get

1295
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:47,520
Speaker 3: them over the hump. Now for Buffalo, maybe that's the

1296
01:02:47,560 --> 01:02:50,920
Speaker 3: cornerback position. So maybe that is like they feel like

1297
01:02:50,960 --> 01:02:53,640
Speaker 3: it's the one position that would help them against Mahomes

1298
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 3: versus like we don't need another skill position. But I

1299
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 3: just feel like that twenty seven to thirty two range

1300
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 3: every year is something I tend to try to attack

1301
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:03,480
Speaker 3: a little bit because it's more predictable.

1302
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I think the Chiefs tend to do

1303
01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:09,000
Speaker 4: like are like they're kind of the poster boys for

1304
01:03:09,080 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 4: that those luxury picks. Remember they did it with Clyde

1305
01:03:11,720 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 4: Edward du Laire. I think it was in the COVID year.

1306
01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 4: Buffalo is funny, funny enough, you say worthy because Buffalo

1307
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 4: literally faded ready, But I get your point is taken.

1308
01:03:21,600 --> 01:03:24,400
Speaker 4: I think the read yeah, because these teams some a

1309
01:03:24,440 --> 01:03:27,040
Speaker 4: lot of these teams have track records. Uh you know

1310
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:30,880
Speaker 4: we again even with the you know, maybe a GM

1311
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:33,320
Speaker 4: moving on, it's like guys under them are promoted. So

1312
01:03:33,440 --> 01:03:36,160
Speaker 4: the lot organizationally, I think you're right, there are some

1313
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:40,440
Speaker 4: predictive predictive qualities like Baltimore kind of tends to go

1314
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 4: best player available, but it also seems to end up

1315
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:47,760
Speaker 4: feeling a meat somehow. You know, the Chiefs tend to

1316
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 4: go a little bit more for a luxury pick. It

1317
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,080
Speaker 4: that kept the offense of you know, this year, they

1318
01:03:54,120 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 4: might they might need to go line, so we'll see.

1319
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:00,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, I do. I do agree. I think those

1320
01:04:00,520 --> 01:04:02,000
Speaker 1: teams borrowing a trade.

1321
01:04:02,040 --> 01:04:04,360
Speaker 4: And that's the thing that always kind of yeah, you know,

1322
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 4: you never know because you also have these teams where,

1323
01:04:08,480 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 4: you know, twenty seven to thirty two. There's always this

1324
01:04:12,080 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 4: talk of how many first round grades do teams have

1325
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:17,840
Speaker 4: on guys, And it's usually not thirty two, right, It's

1326
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 4: usually there's draft where you got fifteen to twenty first

1327
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 4: round grades. So a lot of times you could see

1328
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,360
Speaker 4: these trades back in this range, which could also kind

1329
01:04:26,400 --> 01:04:27,760
Speaker 4: of throw a wrench into things.

1330
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, still still some trigguing opportunities.

1331
01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:32,600
Speaker 4: And just because like as you're alluded to, there's just

1332
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 4: not as many holes on these rosters.

1333
01:04:34,280 --> 01:04:34,760
Speaker 2: All right.

1334
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:38,959
Speaker 3: This has been the Action Network Podcast NFL Draft Edition.

1335
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:41,760
Speaker 3: I am Evan Abrams. That is Chris Raymond.

1336
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 2: We are two weeks out from draft day.

1337
01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:48,560
Speaker 3: We will be back with one, two, three podcasts before

1338
01:04:48,880 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 3: that day, So we will see you next week and

1339
01:04:51,240 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 3: enjoy the week. Everybody.

1340
01:05:08,200 --> 01:05:12,720
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1341
01:05:12,760 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 4: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1342
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,680
Speaker 4: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler