Speaker 1: From Mahard.
Speaker 2: We're Innovation, Money and Power Collie in Silicon Vallet NBN.
Speaker 3: This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed lud.
Speaker 4: Love now from New York and San Francisco. This is
Speaker 4: Bloomberg Technology in selection day and the tech policies and
Speaker 4: implications that you need to know about. On the last
Speaker 4: day of voting.
Speaker 5: Class Palenteer shares jump as it posts record profit and
Speaker 5: made unwavering AI demand and Apple.
Speaker 4: I's smart glasses. We discussed the internal study code named
Speaker 4: Atlas as it follows Snap and Meta's lead. But first
Speaker 4: we check in on these markets as people head in
Speaker 4: person to the polls. We're currently up nine ten percent
Speaker 4: on the NASDAK. Big tech leading the charge today in
Speaker 4: Vidiar Tesla on the higher side, and really it is
Speaker 4: big tech that also drives from an earnings perspective. And
Speaker 4: what are you watching on the.
Speaker 5: Micro Yes, straight to Palenteer shares up twenty three percent
Speaker 5: in the session, on track for their biggest jump since
Speaker 5: February of this year, trading at an all time high.
Speaker 5: What's astonishing, It's like out of nowhere. This is a
Speaker 5: company with one hundred and fourteen billion dollar market gap
Speaker 5: and it's all on revenue in the court have gone
Speaker 5: a little more than seven hundred million dollars, but the
Speaker 5: narrative incredibly clear, unwavering AI demand from corporate America and
Speaker 5: from the public sector as well. Let's get right to
Speaker 5: Palenteer with Mandique Singh of Bloomberg Intelligence. Where would you
Speaker 5: like to start, Mandeep, I mean, the story of Palenteer
Speaker 5: is a long term one. It's continued with this momentum
Speaker 5: for a while. What jumped out from its earnings print for.
Speaker 3: You, Yeah, I mean the government segment growing forty percent
Speaker 3: here in the US, and it is on the back of,
Speaker 3: you know, some connection that they have found with implementing llms.
Speaker 3: I mean, everyone is looking have ways to deploy, you know,
Speaker 3: whether it's GPT, Gemini or Meta Lama, and to Palenteer's credit,
Speaker 3: they found the right pivot when it comes to integrating
Speaker 3: the data the ontology that they have with these llms.
Speaker 3: And I think that's why you're seeing that especially a
Speaker 3: strong momentum on the government side, but also defense tech
Speaker 3: companies on the commercial side. I think in the US
Speaker 3: they've done particularly well because of their you know, data
Speaker 3: lineage and the fact that they have done so well
Speaker 3: over the years in terms of you know, ontology.
Speaker 4: What's interesting, of course, your note that you put out
Speaker 4: is saying, perhaps there was a rush to spend budget
Speaker 4: that was happening from the US government perspective, from your
Speaker 4: mind's eye. Therefore many have they diversified enough to ensure
Speaker 4: that they've got the private sector where they want it
Speaker 4: to be.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, we are in an environment of
Speaker 3: heightened geopolitical tensions and that has traditionally benefited talent.
Speaker 1: Heer.
Speaker 3: I'm a little leary of you know, their momentum on
Speaker 3: the international side, given its still thirty percent plus of
Speaker 3: their business, and that's where you see a tapering of growth,
Speaker 3: given how controversial the CEO can be at times. And look,
Speaker 3: when it comes to software companies, you want to show
Speaker 3: recurring revenue. That's why the cloud names have fetched, you know,
Speaker 3: premium multiples over the year. Palentier currently trades at a
Speaker 3: premium multiple. So it comes down to can they sustain
Speaker 3: this momentum, And I think that's where international is key,
Speaker 3: which I'm not sure they can sustain that kind of momentum.
Speaker 4: Technically, the shares a riverboard if you're looking at the
Speaker 4: relative strength index mandate. It's saying of BlueBag intelligence brings
Speaker 4: us the fundamentals there. But look, let's get back to
Speaker 4: what the day is. It is Election day, it is
Speaker 4: here in the US, and the polling continues to show
Speaker 4: that race as close as any in modern history. You
Speaker 4: bring it back to Katie lines and joins us at
Speaker 4: the start of a marathon of a day, and Katie,
Speaker 4: just bring us up to speed with what we should
Speaker 4: be looking at right here, right now.
Speaker 6: Well, really, this is going to come down to turn
Speaker 6: out that probably will surprise no one. But with the
Speaker 6: margins this type consistently in polling, it really is going
Speaker 6: to be about who can convince voters to get off
Speaker 6: the couch today and vote for them. No longer is
Speaker 6: it about convincing them to vote for either Donald Trump
Speaker 6: or Kamala Harris, but instead to get them to vote
Speaker 6: at all. And I would keep in mind that millions
Speaker 6: of Americans have already done so. As of this morning,
Speaker 6: more than eighty three million people had already cast their vote,
Speaker 6: and the electorate in total those eligible to vote is
Speaker 6: only two hundred and forty four millions, So it would
Speaker 6: be a question of how much of that electorate actually
Speaker 6: shows up today when they go to the polls, and
Speaker 6: of course it is seven states where the turnout is
Speaker 6: going to matter most. Those battlegrounds in the Rust Belt
Speaker 6: and in the Sun Belt are what the candidates have
Speaker 6: been zeroing in on. It's why Kamala Harris meant her
Speaker 6: entire day yesterday in Pennsylvania, which has nineteen electoral votes.
Speaker 6: Donald Trump spending some time in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and
Speaker 6: Michigan as they race today to get to two hundred
Speaker 6: and seventy. And I would just warn our audiences it
Speaker 6: may be the case that we will not know who
Speaker 6: gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes, not today, not tomorrow,
Speaker 6: It could potentially take days.
Speaker 5: Kaylee, thank you for your reporting. Just incredible command of
Speaker 5: the data, which is so important in this tight race.
Speaker 5: Both candidates kind of had closing pitches or remarks last night.
Speaker 5: Where do we leave things in both the Trump camp
Speaker 5: and the Harris camp.
Speaker 6: Well, we heard similar things from Kamala Harris, which is
Speaker 6: that she wants to essentially turn the page on what
Speaker 6: she is referred to as a dark era in American
Speaker 6: politics for the past decade in which Donald Trump has
Speaker 6: been involved in presidential campaigns over what has now been
Speaker 6: three cycles. She reiterated she wants to chart a new
Speaker 6: way forward for Donald Trump. He is basically trying to
Speaker 6: make himself the change candidate in this race. Suggests that
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris, as part of this Biden administration, which in
Speaker 6: many ways has been unpopular, especially with its handling of
Speaker 6: the economy, shows that the country needs to move on.
Speaker 6: He described that the country cannot take four more years
Speaker 6: of what he referred to last night as gross incompetence.
Speaker 6: Now they both are no longer in battleground states as
Speaker 6: we speak, Donald Trump should be voting anytime now. In
Speaker 6: his home state of Florida. He is still allowed to
Speaker 6: do so, even though he was a convicted fell and
Speaker 6: convicted in New York. But New York law dictates a
Speaker 6: convicted felon can still vote. Therefore, Florida recognizes that he
Speaker 6: will be able to cast a vote for himself today.
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris meantime, is at home in DC at the
Speaker 6: Naval Observatory, and she will be heading to Howard University,
Speaker 6: her alma mater, for her election night party this evening.
Speaker 6: Because at this point there's really nothing left either of
Speaker 6: them can do. The closing arguments have been made, The
Speaker 6: ground game has been working for months now, and we
Speaker 6: all just have to wait for the tally to come in.
Speaker 5: Bloomberg's Katie Lynes, thank you very much. Let's get the
Speaker 5: market's perspective and bringing in Anna Ruthman of CBIZ Investment
Speaker 5: Advisory Services. Equity markets are higher, big tech, well megacap
Speaker 5: tech stocks are kind of leading the way voting is underway.
Speaker 5: What does that tell you, Anna?
Speaker 1: If anything, I think the markets are ready for this
Speaker 1: election to be over and for some of the uncertainties
Speaker 1: that have been present and leading up to this day
Speaker 1: to be over. And I think there's a lot of
Speaker 1: excitement about that. But depending on who wins and depending
Speaker 1: on what Washington looks like, there are some issues that
Speaker 1: may be facing tech. And that's on the regulatory side.
Speaker 1: So if I'm taking a look at what might be
Speaker 1: lying ahead, I mean, of course these things can change.
Speaker 1: There's three I would put them in three buckets. One
Speaker 1: is that things that are pretty known that Washington is
Speaker 1: a consensus on, and that one thing is national security,
Speaker 1: and so for the semiconductor industry and AI development, I
Speaker 1: would really look at that and say that may be
Speaker 1: a challenge, especially when we're talking about importing and exporting
Speaker 1: things from China. Undoing some of that global supply chain
Speaker 1: is going to be a challenge there in creating less
Speaker 1: reliance on China. The other is antitrust issues if we
Speaker 1: look at and that's the unknown, right, So if we
Speaker 1: look at potential hairs administration, we've seen Biden administration be
Speaker 1: not as friendly Trump administration. I think there's assumption that
Speaker 1: they're going to be more friendly, especially with Republican Party,
Speaker 1: but it's not always the case.
Speaker 2: Because we have a case while.
Speaker 1: Trump was president between twenty sixty and twenty twenty, everybody
Speaker 1: remembers time order and at serprise, right.
Speaker 5: So just real quick, we're kind of zeroed in on
Speaker 5: this presidential race. But of course the composition of Congress
Speaker 5: will have an impact, and I think in particular about
Speaker 5: if you're talking about regulation artificial intelligence, but also electric vehicles, right,
Speaker 5: the standing impact of the IRRA and any changes that
Speaker 5: might ad that. How do you model for that? Please?
Speaker 2: On the EB side?
Speaker 1: Sure, on the EB side, I think there is there's
Speaker 1: what we established as what Congress would want, right, But
Speaker 1: so if you have a democratic sweep it's going to
Speaker 1: look one way. If you have a Republican sweep, it's
Speaker 1: going to look another way. But I think American people
Speaker 1: have sort of spoken through sales. I mean, if we
Speaker 1: look at Tesla for example, I mean, Tesla did really well,
Speaker 1: but in terms of volume, sales was down.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 2: If you look at.
Speaker 1: Ford and GM, their EV sales were down. So I
Speaker 1: don't know if Washington is going to continue to demand,
Speaker 1: depending on who, especially for the Democratic Party, continue to
Speaker 1: demand that kind of regulation, but the American people might
Speaker 1: just not be for it. So I'm not entirely sure
Speaker 1: if it's going to shake out the way we might project.
Speaker 8: Tesla.
Speaker 4: Of course, one of the leading points contributors to the
Speaker 4: NASDAC on the day at least Anna the leading is
Speaker 4: in Nvidio, And I just want to ask you a
Speaker 4: little bit more about the semiconductor industry and what you're
Speaker 4: trying to factor in in terms of future policy there,
Speaker 4: whether it be with China, whether it be building here
Speaker 4: in the US.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think with AI, that's the national security bit
Speaker 1: that I was talking about before. I think the building
Speaker 1: here in the US, it's going to take a very
Speaker 1: long time. So I think that we're not going to
Speaker 1: see that tomorrow or next year, or frankly even in
Speaker 1: the next four years, whoever is.
Speaker 2: The president, what Washington might look like.
Speaker 1: So I think with Nvidia and AI, the chips and
Speaker 1: the important export controls, that's going to be a big
Speaker 1: topic probably for the next ten to fifteen years.
Speaker 4: Have you been worried in any way about potential change?
Speaker 4: Of course, when it comes to the subsidies, the support
Speaker 4: here in the US for the chip sector building in
Speaker 4: the US, has that changed any of your investment assumptions?
Speaker 2: It doesn't worry us.
Speaker 1: I mean again, this is going to take a long time.
Speaker 1: It actually makes us excited because it actually takes the
Speaker 1: risk of relying too much on Taiwan and South Korea
Speaker 1: and it brings it in here. But now that also
Speaker 1: then you have to question is that going to increase
Speaker 1: the cost of production here because it is essentially a
Speaker 1: little more expensive to make things here, And that actually
Speaker 1: opens up the door to other discussions here that may
Speaker 1: not be tech related per se, but everyone who uses.
Speaker 4: Tech and indeed monetary US see related if we are
Speaker 4: indeed talking about inflationary pressure. Anna Rathman, so good to
Speaker 4: have you on this day. Ciba's investment advisory services. Meanwhile,
Speaker 4: we want to keep an eye on other chip related
Speaker 4: stocks today because the key contributor to the downside in
Speaker 4: terms of points on the nurse at one hundred is
Speaker 4: NXP Today. Why it's earnings, and we saw overall that
Speaker 4: it was underwhelming, to say the least, with forly the
Speaker 4: most it's July issues with the car industry in particular,
Speaker 4: we saw the fourth quarter sales and earnings forecast disappointing
Speaker 4: because that slowed down in automotive customers and indeed a
Speaker 4: weak industrial demand too.
Speaker 5: Okay, coming up from the show details and the survival
Speaker 5: of Elon Musk's million dollars sweet steaks, that's next. This
Speaker 5: is Bloomberg Technology, a legal win for Elon Musk as
Speaker 5: a Pennsylvania judge rejected a request to halt his daily
Speaker 5: one million dollar sweep stakes, which is run by Mosqu's
Speaker 5: pro Donald Trump America pack Bluebers Crystal match on the
Speaker 5: ground for us and Chris, I think we've covered this
Speaker 5: over the course of a number of days or weeks,
Speaker 5: and at the heart of it was what is the
Speaker 5: legal issue here? But just bring us the latest of
Speaker 5: what the judge decided in the moment about the sweepstakes,
Speaker 5: So yeah, hi.
Speaker 7: The judge had a six hour hearing with the DA
Speaker 7: of Philly, Larry Krasner on the stand for a few
Speaker 7: hours and the treasurer of the pack, and almost immediately
Speaker 7: after decided rejected the DA's request for an immediate order
Speaker 7: that would have halted the pack. He didn't explain its reasoning.
Speaker 7: He said he's going to put out an order an
Speaker 7: opinion momentarily.
Speaker 8: That will explain its reasoning. But the DA has.
Speaker 7: Intended that the giveaway violated state lottery laws and also
Speaker 7: on consumer protection laws because it wasn't protecting the confidential
Speaker 7: personal information of the people who won the prize the pack.
Speaker 7: He contended that it actually wasn't a lottery at all.
Speaker 7: It was actually these people were given employment contracts for
Speaker 7: their time as spokespersons for the pack, and they kind
Speaker 7: of said they were being put through the ringers, so
Speaker 7: that's what they were being compensated for. And in fact,
Speaker 7: the treasurer of the pack said on the stand that
Speaker 7: he was surprised to hear Eli call it a random
Speaker 7: giveaway because he said it wasn't. These people were being
Speaker 7: compensated for their time, so that.
Speaker 4: Leads us precisely where Chris, because I suppose there's more
Speaker 4: transparency on actually what this is all about and sort
Speaker 4: of paid spokespeople. But ultimately we're off the hope from
Speaker 4: a legal perspective for the most part.
Speaker 7: Now, the DA continue to pursue damages, and he made
Speaker 7: it clear that he was going to seek more money.
Speaker 7: I mean, this is an emergency injunction motion. So and
Speaker 7: for the most part, like you said, it's kind of
Speaker 7: moot that the giveaway is over. They they're weren't going
Speaker 7: to give away any more money. So Elon last week
Speaker 7: tried to get this move to federal court.
Speaker 8: This is why it took so long.
Speaker 7: The GA only filed this dude a week ago, and
Speaker 7: as were supposed to have you hearing on Thursday. That
Speaker 7: get canceled when Elon tried to move it to federal
Speaker 7: court and then it got punting back to state court.
Speaker 7: So for the most part, this lawsuit is kind of
Speaker 7: over for the moment, and Elon was kind of victorious,
Speaker 7: even though oftensibly, you know, he lost his attempt to
Speaker 7: move it out of court.
Speaker 4: In both Crystal Match on the latest we thank you
Speaker 4: now look Silicon Valley Heavyweights such as in Noamusque. It
Speaker 4: made a significant impact on this year's US election. But
Speaker 4: our next guest says, text involvement began long before the
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four decision. Let's bring in no like technology
Speaker 4: and geopolitics. A fellow at the Harvard Belfa Center, you
Speaker 4: recently wrote an ophead on this exact topic. Just take
Speaker 4: us back in history the States, back to the eighties,
Speaker 4: really the nineties, when technology CEOs really started to make
Speaker 4: their feelings and money known in politics.
Speaker 9: Hi, Caroline, Yes, our current age of tech really began
Speaker 9: in the nineteen eighties with the arrival of the desktop computer,
Speaker 9: and then in the nineteen nineties e commas took off,
Speaker 9: and now we're in sort of the third act of
Speaker 9: this age in terms of AI and of course the
Speaker 9: space phrase. But from the very start, from the nineteen
Speaker 9: eighties Silicon Valleys players, many of whom are still the
Speaker 9: same today as they were then. So people like starting
Speaker 9: with Steve Jobs and right through to Bezos and Mask
Speaker 9: started becoming politically active in the nineteen eighties and engaging
Speaker 9: with the government in terms of the kind of changes
Speaker 9: they wanted for in terms of regulation, investment, and also
Speaker 9: the idea of government as a customer.
Speaker 4: I suppose what potentially has changed here is that one
Speaker 4: of them might well take a very leading role in
Speaker 4: men illustration if indeed Trump does get in and talking
Speaker 4: about Elon Musk. But moreover, it's sort of we're getting
Speaker 4: more transparency about their roles. Is that because of the
Speaker 4: way they're self identifying, or is that because of the
Speaker 4: age of social media we able to find these things out.
Speaker 9: I think it's because, well, we have people like Elon
Speaker 9: Musk being sort of particularly flamboyant in terms of their approach.
Speaker 9: I mean with the million dollar lottery, where there's been
Speaker 9: so much focus on the million bucks. But actually I
Speaker 9: think it's great to have that because we are now
Speaker 9: seeing the power of tech, which was sort of previously
Speaker 9: I think existed. I mean, the PayPal mafia kind of
Speaker 9: functioned as very much with the sort of oath of
Speaker 9: silence or omerta in terms of their political views, and
Speaker 9: we've seen those actually coming out now and just how
Speaker 9: much people like Musk can influence narratives, and not just
Speaker 9: through money, but in terms of how they think about
Speaker 9: the economy, and of course how Musk has also been
Speaker 9: thinking about issues like immigration and voter flaud Now, in.
Speaker 5: Your research, have you found specific evidence that an endorsement
Speaker 5: from a technology leader like Musk, or an appeal from
Speaker 5: leaders in technology to actually go out and vote translates
Speaker 5: to that action by the electorate in the voting base.
Speaker 9: I think it does have some impact. The very first
Speaker 9: Silicon Valley election was took place in nineteen ninety two
Speaker 9: when Clinton actually went out to woule Silicon Valley because
Speaker 9: he wanted to the Democrats to be seen as a
Speaker 9: pro business, pro tech party, and the endorsement that Silicon
Speaker 9: Valley gave him just I think three weeks ahead of
Speaker 9: that election did actually help in terms of shifting the
Speaker 9: mood somewhat. But of course, at that point he was
Speaker 9: already ahead in the polls. So I think it does
Speaker 9: help in some in some way in terms of boosting
Speaker 9: the candidate's credentials, and we've seen that happening this time
Speaker 9: with both Kamla Harris and Trump lying for Silicon Valley endorsements.
Speaker 5: Now, do you believe that technology is a priority for
Speaker 5: both campaigns in this election?
Speaker 9: Yes, absolutely, And I think that when we have candidates
Speaker 9: competing for Silicon Valley votes and endorsements, it means that
Speaker 9: actually it's a win win for Silicon Valley irrespective of
Speaker 9: whether it's Trump or Kamala Harris who ends up in
Speaker 9: the White House.
Speaker 4: I think just broadly, we need to just think about
Speaker 4: ultimately whether the electorate do you think has that transparency,
Speaker 4: that knowledge that with endorsements, with hitting the campaign trail,
Speaker 4: there might well be positives for the companies that they
Speaker 4: run in the later half of the administration.
Speaker 9: I think all of us are becoming much more aware
Speaker 9: of the power of big tech. I mean, we've now
Speaker 9: been living in the age of Tech for the last
Speaker 9: forty years, so I think, yes, the electorate is beginning
Speaker 9: to pay more attention and when we have people like
Speaker 9: Mask making the kind of statements they do, in a way,
Speaker 9: he's helped add to the need for more transparency and
Speaker 9: has made that the process more transparent. In fact, inadvertently.
Speaker 5: Like Technology and Geopolitics Research Fellow at the Belfa Center
Speaker 5: of the Harvard Kennedy School, thank you, welcome.
Speaker 4: Back to BLUEMG Technology. I'm Karine Hyde in New.
Speaker 5: York and I'm ed Loveo in San Francisco.
Speaker 4: It's going to quick check on these markets. We of
Speaker 4: course see people lining up, willing and wanting to be
Speaker 4: able to cast their votes today at the election polls.
Speaker 4: I'm looking at the na's that one hundred up more
Speaker 4: than one percent. In fact, we're seeing big tech leading
Speaker 4: the charge Bitcoin on the higher side as well. So
Speaker 4: see now as some sort of proxy as many feel
Speaker 4: for potentially a Trump administration coming in and one that
Speaker 4: has shown significant support of cryptocurrencies here in the United States.
Speaker 4: But I'm looking at an ecosystem that is led higher
Speaker 4: on the tech side, also by earnings fundamentals. Palenteers still
Speaker 4: showing that the AI demand is resilient and in many
Speaker 4: ways unabound. We're up more than twenty two percent after
Speaker 4: the numbers are beaten raised for Palenteer particularly strong growth
Speaker 4: here in the United States. Super microcomputer. Look, we get
Speaker 4: some numbers after the bell today, but for many it's
Speaker 4: not going to be about the numbers that they show,
Speaker 4: and in fact, we are expecting more than two hundred
Speaker 4: percent increase in their sales for this particular fiscal quarter.
Speaker 4: But people want to know what an earth is going
Speaker 4: on with a DOJ investigation, what on Earth happened in
Speaker 4: terms of them losing their accounting and one on Earth
Speaker 4: about overall the focus on these businesses and transparency around
Speaker 4: super microme. Looking at Trump media, so DJJA up fifteen
Speaker 4: percent seven out of the last eight trading days. ED,
Speaker 4: we've seen double digit moves, quadruple the volatility that we
Speaker 4: see for bitcoin. This again a proxy on Trump and
Speaker 4: a win ED okay.
Speaker 5: A story that broke late last night. Predictions betting platform
Speaker 5: Polymarket has been paying US based influencers to promote election
Speaker 5: betting on the site, even though it's barred from letting
Speaker 5: anyone in the country use the tool to place wages,
Speaker 5: including on today's presidential race. Bloomberg's Margie Murphy broke the
Speaker 5: story and joins us, now, what did you learn?
Speaker 10: Yeah, so, I think a lot of people may have
Speaker 10: seen polymarket across the social media. There's just been a
Speaker 10: flurry of memes and graphics showing Carmela versus Trump with
Speaker 10: a landslide to Trump. And so we were we'd heard
Speaker 10: that Polymarket had been reaching out to US based social
Speaker 10: media influences saying, look, we'll pay for you know, we
Speaker 10: want to sponsor any of your political content. And that
Speaker 10: happened in September and since then that's when we've seen
Speaker 10: this kind of rise of Polymarket partners, and we learned
Speaker 10: that basically, even though Polymarket isn't supposed to be targeting
Speaker 10: a US audience, they're really going for they want the
Speaker 10: eyeballs from the US, and they've been basically picking up
Speaker 10: with any social media influencer who's based in the US,
Speaker 10: not raising any concerns about the fact that their audience
Speaker 10: is US based, and saying kind of, just go for it, polease, like,
Speaker 10: flood your audience with adverts for our market and really
Speaker 10: encouraging people to get on in trade even though technically
Speaker 10: they're not supposed to be doing that.
Speaker 4: Let's talk about whether or not it is indeed trades
Speaker 4: they want, or whether or not Polymarket predictions betting platform
Speaker 4: also brings data for many. Is their counter argument that
Speaker 4: they just want eyeballs people to come to the service,
Speaker 4: even if in the US you're barred from making any
Speaker 4: particular back right.
Speaker 10: So the argument is the poly Market spokesperson said to us,
Speaker 10: ninety nine percent of people are just coming to the
Speaker 10: website to view it as a news source for them,
Speaker 10: and you know, only one percent actually plays trades. And
Speaker 10: that's interesting because the way that it's been shown on
Speaker 10: social media the way that influencers explain to us how
Speaker 10: they were asked to present themselves. It's very much like
Speaker 10: polling data. So when you look at these social media posts,
Speaker 10: it looks like you're viewing pole data. So if this
Speaker 10: one percent who are based outside the US are the
Speaker 10: ones who are actually making these trades and creating this data,
Speaker 10: that means you're seeing kind of predictions from people who
Speaker 10: are outside the US, except it looks like a poll
Speaker 10: and polling data is not supposed to have information from
Speaker 10: anyone outside of the US, So it's a little bit
Speaker 10: manipulative for people who may not understand that it's predictions, Betty,
Speaker 10: because it just it really doesn't like poll data.
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, the ads are viewers, whether they were voting on
Speaker 4: Trump or Harrison, telling them, don't trust the polls. Trust
Speaker 4: the market's fascinating story. Go read it, Margai Murphy. We
Speaker 4: thank you on all things poly markets. Meanwhile, in a
Speaker 4: presidential campaign marked by what seems amplified devisive rhetoric and rumors,
Speaker 4: many are working to combat misinformation. Separate fat from fiction.
Speaker 4: Danielle Lee Thompson so the Center for an Informed Public,
Speaker 4: which focuses on translating research about misinformation into policy. You
Speaker 4: join us now, and Danielle, there is a feeling of
Speaker 4: amplified divisiveness, but is that feeling a reality?
Speaker 2: Good morning, Carolyn, thank you for having me on the show.
Speaker 2: The truth is, when you're online on social media on
Speaker 2: election day, it's like trying to drink water from a
Speaker 2: fire hydrant. There are so many feelings, so much on
Speaker 2: circuit certainty, so much speculation about what is going on,
Speaker 2: that it's actually very hard to get a true sense
Speaker 2: a signal and the noise on a day like today.
Speaker 2: So that's something that it's hard to tell exactly. We're
Speaker 2: trying to sip through all of the rumors that are
Speaker 2: happening to get a sense of what's going on.
Speaker 5: Danielle. We've reported on this program in recent days about how,
Speaker 5: for example, US cybersecurity officials are trying to re establish
Speaker 5: some trust with the voting base. Have you any sort
Speaker 5: of data research study that tells us how in this election,
Speaker 5: literally today in twenty twenty four, misinformation and voter distrust
Speaker 5: will be a factor relative to elections in the past.
Speaker 2: Absolutely, So something that we have to understand that is
Speaker 2: unique about this election in general is that so much
Speaker 2: of the American public is primed to mistrust election results
Speaker 2: on the Republican right, so we think of it as
Speaker 2: kind of like the three c's right now, there are
Speaker 2: people out there who have convinced the American public that
Speaker 2: this election won't be safe, although it overwhelmingly by officials
Speaker 2: it is safe. They encourage folks to go out and
Speaker 2: collect evidence that there's something wrong happening on election day,
Speaker 2: and of course, with one hundred and thirty thousand different
Speaker 2: polling sites in America, there are bound to be irregularities
Speaker 2: or glitches or altercations, but these have remedies, and then
Speaker 2: finally people will go out and try to contest the
Speaker 2: election results or processes or procedures legally or politically after this. So, yes,
Speaker 2: it is true there is increased mistrust, particularly or predominantly
Speaker 2: among Republicans. Democrats tend to trust elections, and we're going
Speaker 2: to see some of that on play out online.
Speaker 5: In twenty twenty, I was in Arizona election in tech
Speaker 5: or the integrity of voting systems was the issue. Then,
Speaker 5: what is the issue now today?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 5: Twenty four.
Speaker 2: We've seen a couple of themes emerge in during early
Speaker 2: voting and during today some of those were around alleged
Speaker 2: fraudulent voter registration forms. Some of them are alleged glitches
Speaker 2: in machines that are being extra one small problem being
Speaker 2: extrapolated into a larger conspiracy theory. So those are some
Speaker 2: issues that we've seen and that we will continue to see.
Speaker 2: But it's important to remember that these issues tend to
Speaker 2: have remedies, and that's a good thing.
Speaker 4: Talking of remedies, you're looking and researching into misinformation and
Speaker 4: then trying to convert it into policy. Is their future
Speaker 4: policy that can help tackle this going forward?
Speaker 2: It's a good question. Today we mostly focus on gathering
Speaker 2: different types of data sets of how rumors spread on
Speaker 2: platforms that is going to inform policy change, whether that
Speaker 2: is internal to tech organizations or to government organizations, or
Speaker 2: also to all the different election officials and boards of
Speaker 2: elections around the country who want to gain the trust
Speaker 2: and keep the trust of the American public. So that's
Speaker 2: what we're focused on today, is getting that data to
Speaker 2: help those solutions later.
Speaker 5: Danielle Lee Thompson of the University of Washington, thank you
Speaker 5: very much. Now coming up here on the program, why
Speaker 5: election interference fears could linger, We speak with a former
Speaker 5: chief of staff of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency,
Speaker 5: Kiss and Todd, the snacks, the Spoonberg technology.
Speaker 4: Voters heading out to the polls, top of mind is
Speaker 4: security and alleviating fears of election interference for what could
Speaker 4: be a hotly tested outcome. Joining us to discuss is
Speaker 4: Kiss and Todd, former chief of staff for the Cybersecurity
Speaker 4: and Infrastructure Security Agency, also now president of Creative Agency
Speaker 4: wander Us and we rely and go to your CASO
Speaker 4: and cyber readiness expertise here because we understand the misinformation concerns.
Speaker 4: We were just talking about them with our previous guest.
Speaker 4: Give us the facts that this is resilient, that we
Speaker 4: are safe.
Speaker 2: We are safe.
Speaker 11: So while elections themselves are political, election security is not.
Speaker 11: Election security is national security, and our election officials, our
Speaker 11: election infrastructure stakeholders have never been more prepared to administer
Speaker 11: a safe, secure, and resilient election. What's important to note
Speaker 11: is that after the twenty sixteen election, elections themselves became
Speaker 11: critical infrastructure, which means that we determined, as a federal
Speaker 11: government with industry that elections are critical to how we
Speaker 11: function as a society. Therefore, additional resources have been allocated
Speaker 11: to all of the state and local officials that are
Speaker 11: actively prepare, have actively prepared for, and are now administering
Speaker 11: these elections.
Speaker 4: Can you give us exact details of I mean, resuls
Speaker 4: is one thing, but actual practices, ways in which we
Speaker 4: know and can trust in the systems that exist.
Speaker 10: So first of all, we have to look historically.
Speaker 11: So since the beginning of twenty twenty three, the federal
Speaker 11: government has worked closely with state and local officials to
Speaker 11: conduct physical assessments of election systems. Importantly, to run almost
Speaker 11: two hundred exercises that prepare these individuals and these communities
Speaker 11: in these regions for different scenarios that may come into play.
Speaker 11: It's also important to note that elections are not connected
Speaker 11: to the Internet, therefore giving it a different level of resilience.
Speaker 11: And what's also very critical is that ninety seven percent
Speaker 11: of registered voters are in jurisdictions with paper records, meaning
Speaker 11: we have this backup and this resilience for audits, etc.
Speaker 5: Kissen. Last night, US intelligence agencies issued a joint statement
Speaker 5: that in our reporting we say is unprecedented. Warning the adversaries,
Speaker 5: Russia being at the forefront of it, has stepped up
Speaker 5: efforts to disrupt this election, calling on your experience and
Speaker 5: your time in relevant agencies. Why is that significant, Well,
Speaker 5: what we know is.
Speaker 11: That our foreign adversaries are absolutely conducting malign influence operations
Speaker 11: that have two real goals. The first is to undermine
Speaker 11: the confidence of Americans in our democracy and the second
Speaker 11: is to sow discord, to just pit Americans against one
Speaker 11: another when there's actually nothing there. But what is critical
Speaker 11: about this election is we're seeing the federal government work
Speaker 11: across agencies to put out these joint announcements and to
Speaker 11: get this information out as quickly as possible. This is
Speaker 11: a big difference from where we were in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 11: twenty eighteen, twenty twenty twenty two. It's improved each year.
Speaker 11: So actually the more that we hear about this, the
Speaker 11: better because there is information that we are being able
Speaker 11: to communicate to voters to say, be aware of this,
Speaker 11: so that we're creating a more educated electorate.
Speaker 5: Through cybersecurity. What are the biggest vulnerabilities that a voter today,
Speaker 5: of all days, might face throughout the day. Where is
Speaker 5: this manifesting itself for everyday people.
Speaker 11: I worry less about cybersecurity. I worry more about just
Speaker 11: people's confidence in the system. There's never been a more
Speaker 11: important time for individuals for citizens to believe in the
Speaker 11: resilience of this nation, to believe in our ability to
Speaker 11: conduct safe, secure elections, and to be personally resilient. And
Speaker 11: each voter has accountability and responsibility in this moment to
Speaker 11: get the right information. State and local election officials are
Speaker 11: the trusted sources for information. If a voter has any
Speaker 11: doubt about anything, to go, Typically they're on websites. Vote
Speaker 11: dot Gov can direct you where to go. But it's
Speaker 11: really portant that individuals and voters find this information to
Speaker 11: be secure.
Speaker 5: OK, bear with us. Former President Donald Trump is speaking
Speaker 5: in Palm Beach, Florida, where he's cast his vote.
Speaker 8: In force, So we'll see how it turns out. But
Speaker 8: it seems that they have really shown up in force.
Speaker 8: I just got a call from Dan Patrick in Texas.
Speaker 8: He said, they've never seen anything like It's been great.
Speaker 8: Look regrets, you always have regrets. I can't think of
Speaker 8: any to be honest, to use her expression, I can't
Speaker 8: think of any Look. I ran a great campaign. I
Speaker 8: think it was maybe the best of the three. We
Speaker 8: did great in the first one. We did much better
Speaker 8: in the second one, but something happened and this was
Speaker 8: the best. I would say this was the best campaign.
Speaker 1: Were in.
Speaker 12: The possibility that you and Vice President Harris both might
Speaker 12: not get to two hundred and seventy electoral votes by
Speaker 12: the end of tonight.
Speaker 8: It should never happen. A thing like that should never happen.
Speaker 8: This election should be over. They spend all this money
Speaker 8: on machines, and frankly, if they'd use paper ballots, it
Speaker 8: would be over by ten o'clock. And by the way,
Speaker 8: the paper ballots would cost eight percent. It would be
Speaker 8: eight percent of the cost. If they would use paper ballots,
Speaker 8: voter ID proof of citizenship and one day voting, it
Speaker 8: would all be over by ten o'clock in the evening.
Speaker 8: It's crazy. They use these very expensive computers and they
Speaker 8: I'm hearing in Pennsylvania they won't have an answer till
Speaker 8: two or three days from now. I think it's an
Speaker 8: absolute outrage. If that's the case, well maybe it'll be later.
Speaker 8: But it's paper ballots. In France they went paper ballots
Speaker 8: because the mail in was not working. It was corrupt.
Speaker 8: And in France they went paper ballots, and at ten
Speaker 8: o'clock in the evening they had thirty seven million votes
Speaker 8: counted done, they had a winner, they had a loser,
Speaker 8: and in this country, I mean, I'm just hearing that
Speaker 8: in certain states, it's going to be a long time
Speaker 8: and it won't even be close. It won't even be
Speaker 8: that close. They say I'm going to win the state,
Speaker 8: but it's going to take a long time to certify.
Speaker 12: Did you see a world where you don't declare victory tonight.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I'm hearing the same things that you're hearing.
Speaker 8: I'm hearing states where I'm up by a lot, but
Speaker 8: they won't have a final number for a long time
Speaker 8: in terms of watching the results and so forth. So
Speaker 8: we're going to have a very special group of people,
Speaker 8: many of whom you know, and they'll be at Marlago.
Speaker 8: In addition, we'll have four or five thousand people at
Speaker 8: the convention center on the assumption I win. I mean,
Speaker 8: I don't know if something else happens. I don't know
Speaker 8: what's going to happen in terms of declaring victory. But
Speaker 8: if in normal times, I would go over to the
Speaker 8: convention center, let's say at ten o'clock or eleven o'clock
Speaker 8: or something. But I just don't know. Well, it looks
Speaker 8: like we have a very substantial lead. It looks like
Speaker 8: we have many more Republicans voting today than Democrats. So
Speaker 8: if you have a lead and we have a bigger vote,
Speaker 8: that means you're doing very well. But they have to
Speaker 8: call a winner. They should, and they should call a winner. Yes,
Speaker 8: I just stopped talking about that. Go ahead. Oh, I
Speaker 8: don't know. I was honored to get Joe Rogan last night.
Speaker 8: I mean, if Joe Rogan's a big deal, is a
Speaker 8: very respected person. And I must tell you Megan was fantastic.
Speaker 8: She got up and said some things that were really
Speaker 8: pretty amazing. But before that, I just think we ran
Speaker 8: a good campaign. I had good policy. I had. We
Speaker 8: want people to come into our country, but they have
Speaker 8: to come in legally. You know. We want strong boarders
Speaker 8: and we want people to come in. We want to
Speaker 8: be totally inclusive, but they have to come in. I
Speaker 8: think that was a big issue. To me, that was
Speaker 8: the biggest issue. I may be wrong. A lot of
Speaker 8: people said inflation. Inflation is a disaster, but I think
Speaker 8: it's a second issue. I think the first is the border.
Speaker 8: We can't allow criminals to be put back into our
Speaker 8: country or to be put into our country.
Speaker 3: So you have.
Speaker 8: Thirteen thousand plus murderers allowed to roam in our country,
Speaker 8: I'm not going to be allowed to have to go.
Speaker 8: You have drug dealers, you have terrorists, you have a
Speaker 8: tremendous amount of people that should not be in our country.
Speaker 8: And we need strong borders in this country. And I
Speaker 8: think people are voting that. I think it's personally. I
Speaker 8: think it's a number one issue. We'll see how it
Speaker 8: pans out, but I think it's a number one issue.
Speaker 8: I don't have to tell them that. I don't have
Speaker 8: to tell I don't have to tell them that there'll
Speaker 8: be no violence. Of course there'll be no violence. My
Speaker 8: supporters are not violent people. I don't have to tell
Speaker 8: them then, and I certainly don't want any violence. But
Speaker 8: I certainly don't have to tell these are great people.
Speaker 8: These are people that believe in no violence. Unlike your question,
Speaker 8: you believe in violence. Where would you be going, Well,
Speaker 8: I think I'll be at mar A Lago for the
Speaker 8: most part. We have a lot of political professionals. I'm
Speaker 8: going over now with Malaney, who I'm very proud of.
Speaker 8: She's got the number one best seller, can you believe
Speaker 8: that he can believe it. But so we're very proud
Speaker 8: of the job she's done with that. Your book is
Speaker 8: number one. But we're going to go over to the
Speaker 8: office in West Palm and we're going to say a
Speaker 8: lot of the workers they've worked very hard for your
Speaker 8: first indication. I think so. I mean, I hear we're
Speaker 8: doing very well there in Georgia. I hear we're doing
Speaker 8: very well. I hear we're doing very well everywhere. Now
Speaker 8: I may be I may regret that statement, but I'm
Speaker 8: hearing that we're doing very well. Would you go out.
Speaker 8: I haven't prepared a speech. I did speeches last night,
Speaker 8: all day long, all night long. At two o'clock in
Speaker 8: the morning, we left and we did a lot of speeches.
Speaker 8: You can probably tell no, I don't have to do that.
Speaker 8: You know, I'm not a Democrat. I'm able to make
Speaker 8: a speech on pretty quick notice if I win. I
Speaker 8: know what I'm going to say, and I don't even
Speaker 8: want to think about the losing part. I would like
Speaker 8: to tell all of the people that are on line
Speaker 8: to stay online. We have tremendous Republican lines and I've
Speaker 8: been asked I actually to say it it takes a while.
Speaker 8: I'd like to just make the satement that I'd like
Speaker 8: the Republicans to stay online. Democrats, if they'd like, they
Speaker 8: can leave, but I like the Republicans to stay online.
Speaker 8: I have no pressure whatsoever. I'm winning big cases. Those
Speaker 8: cases are all being one. The biggest case was the
Speaker 8: Florida case, and it's been one. I appreciate your nice question.
Speaker 8: No pressure nine for nine years, regardless of what happened tonight.
Speaker 8: Is this your last campaign?
Speaker 2: Are you?
Speaker 8: Are you done after this? I would think so. I
Speaker 8: would think, so, said said and very fulfilled. I think
Speaker 8: we're gonna have a very big victory today. Very good,
Speaker 8: thank you, Thank you. Start transition team. But I don't
Speaker 8: like talking about that until I find out how we do.
Speaker 8: I mean, well, it doesn't look we're not looking to
Speaker 8: do damage to a RAM. But they can't have a
Speaker 8: nuclear weapon, and say, you know, my terms are very easy.
Speaker 8: They can't have a nuclear op and I want to.
Speaker 8: I'd like them to be a very successful country, but
Speaker 8: they just can't have a nuclear with well, I think
Speaker 8: Secret Service has been a little bit tougher. To put
Speaker 8: it mildly, I see more machine guns than I've ever
Speaker 8: seen in my life was surrounded by I feel very
Speaker 8: confident with Secret Service. I think they've stepped up. Look,
Speaker 8: for a long time, they didn't give us the help.
Speaker 8: They didn't give us the assets, as they say, the manpower,
Speaker 8: woman power. They didn't give it to us, and would
Speaker 8: have rallies. You saw the rallies fifty sixty thousand people
Speaker 8: and I'd have less people than Joe Biden who had
Speaker 8: five people show up. And I'd have fifty five thousand
Speaker 8: people show up, and I had fewer people than him.
Speaker 8: So they should have done a much better job. And
Speaker 8: by frank and frankly, the President should make a very
Speaker 8: strong statement to the outside world because I think my
Speaker 8: team is incredible. Look, they say it's the best run
Speaker 8: campaign they've seen. Some people say it's the best run
Speaker 8: campaign they've ever seen. But in order to make that stick,
Speaker 8: you have.
Speaker 2: To win.
Speaker 8: Campaign.
Speaker 10: Are you more confident now than you were that you were.
Speaker 8: My team? I'm very confident. And many of them are
Speaker 8: the same players, as you know, Susie. A lot of
Speaker 8: the people of the same players have been very good. Well.
Speaker 8: I think it's ridiculous. You know, Oprah, I was on
Speaker 8: her last show or one of her last shows and
Speaker 8: they picked the biggest people and all of that and
Speaker 8: made a big deal. And I'm actually I'm disappointed. I
Speaker 8: think Oprah has become a major divider in our country,
Speaker 8: and I think frankly should be She's be ashamed of herself.
Speaker 8: And you know who else should be ashamed? Fox? Because
Speaker 8: I've seen Oprah on Fox about fifty times making the
Speaker 8: same statement, and I think it's a disgrace what Fox does.
Speaker 8: Because everyone thinks Fox is so pro Trump, They're not
Speaker 8: pro Trump at all. They've put Oprah on all morning long.
Speaker 8: That's all I see is Oprah. And you know I
Speaker 8: do Oprah very well. She's been a Marlago many times.
Speaker 8: Roger King had his funeral. That's a head of Kingworld,
Speaker 8: which was Oprah's mentor, and Oprah chose the location. She said,
Speaker 8: Marlago is the most beautiful place. Would it be possible
Speaker 8: to have Rogers funeral at mar Alago in the ballroom.
Speaker 8: We did it the only time I've ever had a
Speaker 8: funeral there. And I think Oprah should be ashamed of
Speaker 8: herself to say that she should be a shaped. She
Speaker 8: knows me. She wanted to run with me as a
Speaker 8: vice president. She was going to be the vice president.
Speaker 8: She wrote me a letter, it's in the book. And
Speaker 8: now she goes to make statements like that she's a
Speaker 8: divider and Barack Hussein Obama is a divider too.
Speaker 12: Concerned that you didn't concede the election in twenty twenty
Speaker 12: when you lost, they're concerned that if you lost this election,
Speaker 12: you wouldn't concede again. What do you say to those people?
Speaker 8: I think they're crazy. If I lose an election, if
Speaker 8: it's a fair election, I'm going to I'd be the
Speaker 8: first one to acknowledge it. And I think it's well
Speaker 8: so far, I think it's been fair. I think there's
Speaker 8: been a lot of court cases. Both sides are lawyered up.
Speaker 8: Thousands of lawyers are involved, you know, thousands, can you imagine?
Speaker 8: And part of that is because we have too complicated
Speaker 8: a process. If we had a piece of paper watermark
Speaker 8: you know that paper is more sophisticated now than computers.
Speaker 8: It's watermarked paper, you cannot It's it's unbelievable what happens
Speaker 8: with it. There's nothing you can do to cheat, and
Speaker 8: of course you have practically nothing to run. Think of it.
Speaker 8: We spend hundreds of millions and billions of dollars on
Speaker 8: these campaigns. You could do it for eight percent of
Speaker 8: the cost and have accuracy and we wouldn't have to
Speaker 8: be worried about when is Pennsylvania going to announce? It's
Speaker 8: really a shame. Well, he knows exactly what, but that's
Speaker 8: only based on what RFK told. I don't think RFK
Speaker 8: wanted that. You're talking about health and human services. Let
Speaker 8: me tell you he's a great guy, RFK, and he's
Speaker 8: going to do pretty much what he wants as far
Speaker 8: as I'm concerned. He wants health for women, for men,
Speaker 8: for children, and I happen to agree with a lot
Speaker 8: of the things he says. The one thing I told
Speaker 8: him and I've told you in speeches for the last
Speaker 8: two weeks, we got to keep them away from the
Speaker 8: liquid goal because the liquid goal we have more than
Speaker 8: any of it. It's oiled called oil and gas. That
Speaker 8: one I'm going to handle.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 8: I'd be honored to have him now, and I haven't
Speaker 8: spoken a hard about that, but look, if you think
Speaker 8: of it, he came in third, you know, and running
Speaker 8: for president, right, He ran a very good race. He
Speaker 8: had obstacles. The Democrats just really unfairly put obstacles up,
Speaker 8: and hence A Kennedy left the Democrat Party for the Republicans.
Speaker 8: There's a very smart Guy's are very carey guy. It's
Speaker 8: very popular too. We get up and introduce him, the
Speaker 8: place goes well. No, we love having them, and you
Speaker 8: know who else. We love having Elon He's been great
Speaker 8: and everybody. Look, everybody getting Joe Rogan last night and
Speaker 8: Megan Cally. We just have This is very inclusive. This
Speaker 8: is a movement. This is the greatest political movement in
Speaker 8: the history of our country. And even new people and
Speaker 8: some of you affairs sometimes, but it's the greatest movement
Speaker 8: in the history of our country. And I've made that
Speaker 8: statement a thousand times. It has never been challenged. It
Speaker 8: is the greatest movement. And we're going to make America
Speaker 8: great again.
Speaker 5: Thinks recap on the podcast. You know where to find
Speaker 5: it online on those platforms. Do on the Bloomberg ones
Speaker 5: as well. Thank you team in New York, Thank you
Speaker 5: team here in San Francisco. Get some rest because there's
Speaker 5: a lot more to come. This is Bloomberg Technology