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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome back to another episode of the Mark

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Speaker 1: Moss Show, where we talk about the decentralized revolution, talking

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Speaker 1: about the way the world is changing, of course as

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Speaker 1: we look at through the lens of politics, finance, and technology.

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Speaker 1: Of course that technology is bitcoin that's changing the world.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I like to bring to you some

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Speaker 1: education to change the way you think, some late breaking news,

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Speaker 1: and of course some interesting guests. You don't have to

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Speaker 1: listen to me all the time, and that is what

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Speaker 1: we have for you today. I have a returning guest

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Speaker 1: and friend, doctor Jeff Ross.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 1: He is the managing director of Vaushire Capital Management and

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Speaker 1: yeah he's also a doctor, so he's pretty dang smart. Anyway, Jeff,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining me back today again.

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Speaker 2: I always love being on your show. Mark, thanks for

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Speaker 2: having me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, man, it's always a pleasure. You know, Ross and

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Speaker 1: Moss and then we have our other buddy Foss are

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Speaker 1: the as brothers.

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Speaker 3: You know. I know you'd like to kind of joke

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Speaker 3: with yourself kind of.

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Speaker 1: Being the bear, you know, kind of the the bearish guy,

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Speaker 1: and and you know you and I have gone him

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Speaker 1: kind of back and forth on this for some fine.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious, where's the bear at right now? Is the

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Speaker 1: bear out with fangs out? Or is the bear in hibernation?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Great question, So the bear is in hibernation, A

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Speaker 2: great way to put it. I've I've been going by

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Speaker 2: a doctor krab is my moniker for this year, for

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Speaker 2: most of twenty twenty three for a couple of reasons.

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Speaker 2: And we can tell we can get into any of

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Speaker 2: these kind of things. But but you know, one of

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Speaker 2: the main things I like to look at is liquidity

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Speaker 2: and what is liquidity doing? Both here in the US

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Speaker 2: we can talk about net liquidity or worldwide just what's

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Speaker 2: worldwide liquidity doing. It basically bottomed in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two, and then it's been creeping higher

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Speaker 2: ever since. I kind of shot higher in the US

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Speaker 2: back in March and then it's been kind of going sideways.

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Speaker 2: There is much concern with the debt ceiling debacle leading

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Speaker 2: up to it. What's going to happen once it goes

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Speaker 2: through because the Treasury General Account's going to need to

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Speaker 2: get refilled. And isn't that, you know, contractionary for liquidity,

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Speaker 2: And the answer is yes, it is. But however, there

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Speaker 2: is more to net liquidity than just the filling of

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Speaker 2: the TGA, right, there's also the overnight reverse repel market.

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Speaker 2: So what I've been following closely is where is that

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Speaker 2: money coming from to fund the treasuries refilling of the TGA,

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Speaker 2: And a lot of it has been coming out of

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Speaker 2: the overnight reverse repel market. So basically that's net neutral

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Speaker 2: for liquidity. Because of that neutrality, I'm pretty much cravish,

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Speaker 2: So so you know what I'm what, I'm crash sideways,

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Speaker 2: choppy sideways. I still think that this recessionary bear market

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Speaker 2: is out in front of us somewhere. I think the

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Speaker 2: the yield curve you know, usually doesn't lie. So it's

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Speaker 2: still inverted about one hundred and what one hundred and

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Speaker 2: two BIPs right now, so that's pretty impressive. It's still

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Speaker 2: very deeply inverted. I won't really get worried about the

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Speaker 2: recessionary bear market per se until we start to see

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Speaker 2: that uninvert basically until it steepens again and we start

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Speaker 2: seeing other signs that could could could mean that something

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Speaker 2: is imminent. For now, the signs that I follow pretty closely,

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Speaker 2: I don't see any imminent catastrophe heading our way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I remember last time we talked.

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Speaker 1: I don't remember what the date was, and I remember

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Speaker 1: I had a couple of charts up and I was

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Speaker 1: just kind of showing them to you. I think it

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Speaker 1: was while we were off recording, and I was just

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Speaker 1: kind of showing like how the market was kind of

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Speaker 1: holding up its structure. It's long term structure, looking at

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Speaker 1: the Nasdaq and SMP and I was like, man, like,

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Speaker 1: it's like still holding up, and like I think the Fed,

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Speaker 1: you know, they got their finger on the trigger. They

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Speaker 1: can kind of keep this going and appears to be

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Speaker 1: so for now. Who knows how long they can keep

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Speaker 1: the game going. Now, typically, you know, we don't see

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Speaker 1: the effects of these crazy rate increases for twelve to

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Speaker 1: eighteen months. We know the FED has been on the

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Speaker 1: fastest rate hiking in history, and they did it so

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Speaker 1: fast that they didn't really have time to be absorbed

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Speaker 1: through the market. Now here we are thirteen fourteen months

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Speaker 1: into it, so kind of starting to see the effects

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Speaker 1: of this, probably by this maybe probably Q three, Q four,

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Speaker 1: maybe really start to see the effects. Do you have

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Speaker 1: like a little bit of a different outlook for where

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Speaker 1: you think the kind of the rest of the year goes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, I'm pretty much on board with you. Other

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Speaker 2: than Q three, I'm still pretty optimistic about I think

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Speaker 2: we're going to have a kind of a surprisingly okay summer,

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Speaker 2: possibly even a good summer, especially in terms of like

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Speaker 2: bitcoin gold might actually do fairly well. I do think

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Speaker 2: that kind of AI driven Nasdaq stocks are a little

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Speaker 2: bit overdone right now. They're they're overcooked, and so I

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of recovery. But yes,

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Speaker 2: to your point, Q four of this year, maybe Q

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Speaker 2: one of twenty twenty four, that's when I think we're

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Speaker 2: going to start feeling the effects more and at some

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Speaker 2: point I think we're you know, that's when we're going

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Speaker 2: to be talking more seriously about actually being in a recession.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Now when you talk about recession, I think we kind

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Speaker 1: of have to break this apart. So you have like

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Speaker 1: the economy, which is typically what you consider the recession.

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Speaker 1: I know, the Biden administration changed the you know, change

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Speaker 1: the definition of that, but you know, a contracting GDP

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Speaker 1: or economy. So typically I think I think about when

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Speaker 1: you say recession, the economy is going into recessions, so

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Speaker 1: we're having slow growth or negative growth potentially even but

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Speaker 1: what about the markets, meaning you know, the stock markets,

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Speaker 1: nasdacs and b et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a great question. In two your point that they're

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Speaker 2: two different things, right, The markets are different than the

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Speaker 2: underlying economy, for sure. I'm a big believer that markets

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Speaker 2: themselves move on liquidity. That's why I usually bring it

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Speaker 2: up as one of my first talking points. And that

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Speaker 2: is sort of related to what the economy is doing,

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Speaker 2: but not quite right. What we'll see at some point

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Speaker 2: is when the economy looks like it's definitely headed into recession.

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Speaker 2: What are some things we'll see. We'll see unemployment finally rise.

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Speaker 2: It will rip higher, even though it's been at these

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Speaker 2: kind of historical lows. I look at the high yield

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Speaker 2: oas options adjusted spread, that's the difference between the treasury

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Speaker 2: yields and their counterparts and the triple C or the

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Speaker 2: junk debt market. Look for those to blow out or

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Speaker 2: to widen, those kind of things. And as it becomes

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Speaker 2: more clear that the economy is indeed in a recession,

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Speaker 2: the Fed will follow suits. So they're gonna quit raising

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Speaker 2: rates at some point, They're gonna pause, and then they're

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Speaker 2: gonna start to panic a little bit. And start to

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Speaker 2: quickly lower rates. That's when the economy is like headed

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Speaker 2: into the throes of a recession and it looks like

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Speaker 2: things are getting pretty serious. That usually marks the point

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Speaker 2: where you know, the floor drop out under risk assets,

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Speaker 2: under the stock markets. Maybe bitcoin gets sucked lower, but

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Speaker 2: you usually see the bottom of those assets near the

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Speaker 2: beginning of an actual economic recession. It kind of gets

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Speaker 2: all the pain out of the way quickly, and then

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Speaker 2: that bottoms and starts to recover, while the economy can

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Speaker 2: sort of slog through a recession for several quarters even

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Speaker 2: a couple of years.

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Speaker 1: Now, you mentioned a FED pause, But isn't that what

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Speaker 1: we just saw. I mean, technically it's a skip, right,

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Speaker 1: but like it's the same as a pause.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so yeah, it paused. I thought when they

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Speaker 2: first did it, I saw. You know what, usually when

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Speaker 2: the FED says something is temporary, like they're only skipping,

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Speaker 2: that usually means it's official and they're going to be

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Speaker 2: done raising rates. You know, the markets are still saying

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Speaker 2: about an eighty seven percent chance of a hike at

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Speaker 2: the next meeting at the end of July, and then

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Speaker 2: they and then the market's the betting money, right, the

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Speaker 2: CME futures market. They're saying that they raised one more

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Speaker 2: time twenty five BIPs to five point fifty, and then

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Speaker 2: they hold that through the rest of the year. We'll

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Speaker 2: see if that happens, but that's what the betting money

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Speaker 2: is saying, and I tend to lean in that direction.

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Speaker 2: If people are putting actual money on it, they tend

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Speaker 2: to be the most involved. So that's what I think

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Speaker 2: is going to happen. I think we're probably going to

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Speaker 2: get one more twenty five BIPs hike and then the pause,

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Speaker 2: and then again markets can rally until something bad happens,

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Speaker 2: So I'll remain optimistic to other's reason to be otherwise.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Now, obviously, you know I always kind of say

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Speaker 1: that the world we're going to do is not the

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Speaker 1: same as the world we're leaving behind, and so you know,

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Speaker 1: we look at the historical precedent to see kind of

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Speaker 1: maybe a view into what could happen, and we know

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Speaker 1: that I think I believe that they've never raised again

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Speaker 1: after pausing, So if they were to go back and raise,

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Speaker 1: then we're certainly in new territory.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and I agree, so so we will be in

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Speaker 2: new territory if it happens. And again, the reason why

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Speaker 2: I think it probably is going to happen is inflation

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Speaker 2: just kind of keeps hanging on and keeps remaining sticky,

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Speaker 2: and they use that as their main talking point. As

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Speaker 2: long as inflation is high, higher than we want it

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Speaker 2: to be, well above our two percent target, we're going

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Speaker 2: to continue to be hawkish for longer. I do think

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Speaker 2: at this point, by the way, it's a mistake. I

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Speaker 2: don't think they should continue to hike. As you and

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Speaker 2: I both know, these have long legging effects and we're

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Speaker 2: going to see the deliterious effects twelve, eighteen, twenty four

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Speaker 2: months into the future, and I'm not looking forward to

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Speaker 2: that future at this point.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Now, you know, following liquidity or really kind of following

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Speaker 1: the money supply if you think about this, like inflation

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Speaker 1: that's sticking around. Using some rough numbers pre pandemic to now,

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Speaker 1: the federal budget went from four trillion to six trillion.

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Speaker 1: That's a fifty percent increase. You know. We can talk

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Speaker 1: about the ten twelve trillion that was printed between the

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Speaker 1: Fed and the Treasury, but just the budget itself went

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Speaker 1: up fifty percent and they're not going back. That's what

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Speaker 1: the whole debt celiing debate was about, and they didn't

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Speaker 1: want to go back at all, and so that new

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Speaker 1: six trillion is now baked in. So if we've increased

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Speaker 1: the money supply by fifty percent, we've increased the budget

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Speaker 1: by fifty percent, and we don't go back, then it's like,

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Speaker 1: of course, of course we're going to continue to have

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Speaker 1: that sticky inflation. Now, if you're just tuning in, you

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Speaker 1: are listening to the Marks Show, of course, talking about

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Speaker 1: the decentralized Revolution. I'm in the studio with doctor Jeff Ross.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about what is going on with the markets,

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Speaker 1: the FED, and so much more. We're going to take

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Speaker 1: a very quick break. I'm going to come back with

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Speaker 1: more in a second. Don't go away, I'll be right back,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 3: Welcome back.

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Speaker 1: If you're just tune in, you're listening to the Mark

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Speaker 1: Moss Show talking with doctor Jeff Ross. Here talking about

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Speaker 1: the markets. Now, Jeff, before we went into that break,

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Speaker 1: we were talking about liquidity, and I was just talking

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Speaker 1: about how you were mentioned how the inflation was sticky,

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Speaker 1: and I was talking about how they've increased the budget

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Speaker 1: by fifty percent. If they don't if they don't decrease

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Speaker 1: that budget. If that's the new baked in number, then

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Speaker 1: that's the new liquidity that's there. I mean, at some

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Speaker 1: point does that does it even out or I mean

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Speaker 1: how or are they crazy thinking inflation is going to

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Speaker 1: come back down as long as they're still spending that

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Speaker 1: much money?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, I think in part they're crazy for sure, Right,

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Speaker 2: So I would not be surprised to see some sort

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Speaker 2: of deflationary type bust. If we do get a floor

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Speaker 2: dropout moment where people start panicking, that is very deflationary.

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Speaker 2: So it's possible we'll see that. But I think this

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Speaker 2: is the decade where inflation continues to come back and

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Speaker 2: rear its ugly head. I think it's going to be

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Speaker 2: pretty volatile for most of this decade. I think the

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Speaker 2: most similar decade that you know in most recent history

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Speaker 2: is probably the nineteen seventies, even though it's a different

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Speaker 2: picture of why the inflation was created. But yeah, you

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Speaker 2: know a couple things to think about too. The government

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Speaker 2: is just spending money ad nauseum, right, They have no

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Speaker 2: ceiling anymore. They can spend what they want. It's kind

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Speaker 2: of like if Visa called up you or I and

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Speaker 2: said Hey, you know what, we really like you. You don't

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Speaker 2: even have a limit anymore. You just spend what you

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Speaker 2: want and we'll get back to it and we'll we'll

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Speaker 2: discuss it in twenty twenty five what we should do. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's just pure nonsense that the government can have unlimited

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Speaker 2: spending power at this point, or unlimited borrowing power. I

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Speaker 2: will say that that is very as we know, inflationary. Right,

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Speaker 2: it's going to debase the currency significantly at first when

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Speaker 2: it comes out. At first, when they release these t

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Speaker 2: bills and these treasuries, it tends to suck liquidity out

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Speaker 2: of the system briefly, but then it just is a

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Speaker 2: flow of longer term liquidity that's coming in. That's what's

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Speaker 2: going to cause debasement, and that's what's going to cause

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Speaker 2: the next huge rush higher I think in risk assets

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Speaker 2: and in bitcoin as well.

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Speaker 1: Now, what about you know, the FED raising rates so

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Speaker 1: fast and so high has put a lot of stress

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Speaker 1: onto the banks. We've seen banks collapsing.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 1: One of the things that they're doing is they want

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Speaker 1: to change the capital requirements for the banks. They want

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Speaker 1: to increase that and so you know, there's a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of reasons we could throw out, you know, the

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Speaker 1: commercial real estate market. That's two point ninety two trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars affecting more of the kind of smaller banks. Now

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Speaker 1: they increased requirements, et cetera, and it would think that

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Speaker 1: the banks would probably start lending less money. And if

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Speaker 1: there's less loans going out, that affects the liquidity in

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Speaker 1: the system. Right, how's that?

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Speaker 3: Where does that fit under your radar?

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Speaker 2: So two kind of different things, at least the way

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Speaker 2: I look at it. I look at liquidity itself as

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Speaker 2: being sort of the wholesale money market. Basically, what are

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Speaker 2: institutions doing with that's the money that flows between the

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Speaker 2: overnight reverse repoll market, what the FED is doing, bank reserves,

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Speaker 2: those kind of things, and then the M two money supply.

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Speaker 2: So when banks create money, they're basically creating more of

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Speaker 2: that M two supply. Another way that that gets created

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Speaker 2: is when the Treasury just borrows money and then sends

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Speaker 2: injects money directly into your bank accounts, like they did

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Speaker 2: post COVID.

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Speaker 1: I like two different except for I didn't get any

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Speaker 1: but yeah, yeah, but they get it right.

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Speaker 2: What we did get to enjoy it, right was the

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Speaker 2: after effects of that, which was this rapid increase in

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Speaker 2: the prices of goods and services. So the CPI skyrocketed

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Speaker 2: because of that, and that to me was totally predictable.

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Speaker 2: Whenever the government just says here is free money to people,

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Speaker 2: that people are like, well, they spend money on what

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Speaker 2: people spend money on. They spend money on butter and

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Speaker 2: you know, groceries and gas, and they spend money on

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Speaker 2: healthcare and those kind of things. So those prices are

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Speaker 2: going to go up when the wholesale money increases. That's

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Speaker 2: a different kind of thing to me. That's what I'm

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Speaker 2: talking about with liquidity. Those are when institutional investors suddenly

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Speaker 2: have billions of dollars on their balance sheets. Now that

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Speaker 2: money is the stuff that eventually makes its way into

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Speaker 2: risk assets, and the less volatile the culture is basically,

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Speaker 2: and the more supportive the feed is being and the

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Speaker 2: underlying economy is being the further out and the risk

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Speaker 2: curve those assets go. So that's when you see these

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Speaker 2: spikes higher in you know, stocks, bonds, real estate, private equity.

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Speaker 2: And I think in the next cycle, by the way,

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Speaker 2: bitcoin will be included in that cycle.

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Speaker 1: So then do you think so the impact in the

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Speaker 1: banking sector and potentially making less loans. You don't really

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Speaker 1: kind of think about that in terms of the liquidity,

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Speaker 1: but that does have a big impact on what you

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Speaker 1: might consider the recession coming to the economy because I

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Speaker 1: mean less business loans as equipment being purchased. I mean

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Speaker 1: that affects the economy big time.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely, yep. And so that acts as it has

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Speaker 2: a slowing effect, it also has a disinflationary effect on

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Speaker 2: the economy as well. So as that M two supply

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Speaker 2: goes down, people just have less money for goods and services.

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Speaker 2: You know, we're seeing the student loan a moratorium end

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Speaker 2: very quickly. That means people are going to have to

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Speaker 2: actually put money towards those loans that they haven't had

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Speaker 2: to do for a couple of years. They'll have less

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Speaker 2: spending cash as well. I think all of these things

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Speaker 2: will actually act to pull down CPI and personal consumption expenditures.

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Speaker 2: And then in the coming quarters.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, now, you know one of the things I talked

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Speaker 1: about on a previous segment. You know, in January, the

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Speaker 1: BLS changed the CPI calculation, and so knowing that even

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Speaker 1: if inflation didn't change at all, the CPI number would

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Speaker 1: actually come down because they're measuring from a one year

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Speaker 1: comp So we had last year September was I think

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Speaker 1: our high water.

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Speaker 3: Mark of was it? Was it September twenty twenty two

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Speaker 3: nine point one percent?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Or is that twenty twenty one, twenty two? I think yeah,

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Speaker 1: September twenty twenty two, nine point one So now if

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Speaker 1: we're measuring just from that, like, of course, inflation is

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Speaker 1: going to come way down. But I think the Fed's

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Speaker 1: looking at more than just CPI, and they're looking at

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Speaker 1: PCE things like that would still if you if you

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Speaker 1: if you take out the energy component, I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: still pretty sticky on that standpoint. Do you think the

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Speaker 1: FED really is is watching that number? What do you

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Speaker 1: think their kind of main concern is there?

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Speaker 2: I do think they're watching it, only because that's what

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Speaker 2: Pabel says he's watching, right. He talks about the core

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Speaker 2: PC pretty frequently. He also said, by the way, and

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Speaker 2: to give him credit, that we probably wouldn't see much

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Speaker 2: movement in these numbers, in these inflationary metrics until the

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Speaker 2: second half of twenty twenty three. He was saying that

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Speaker 2: like six months ago. To his credit, and I hate

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Speaker 2: to give him too much credit, but I'm pretty hard

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Speaker 2: on him, so I like to give him credit when

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Speaker 2: I can. But he was talking about the primary component

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Speaker 2: of say the CPI is this owner's equivalent rent right

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Speaker 2: the housing market that and the owner's equivalent rent is

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Speaker 2: about a twelve to eighteen month legging indicator on that.

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Speaker 2: So after housing peaked, obviously we saw that rapid rise

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Speaker 2: and inflation that's starting to roll over already, and so

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Speaker 2: I think into the second half of this year that

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Speaker 2: is something that can help bring these factors down as well.

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Speaker 2: How much does the FED watch that, I don't know,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think what they're going to do is

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Speaker 2: they're just going to continue to kind of push buttons

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Speaker 2: and talk in jabber for a while until basically the

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Speaker 2: bond market locks up and until the crisis gets more serious. So,

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Speaker 2: you know, we're seeing the bank term funding program continue

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Speaker 2: to get used, it continues to get in, you know,

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Speaker 2: get utilized, which means that these regional banks continue to

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Speaker 2: be under significant duress. That's a and so that also

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Speaker 2: means we need to keep an eye on commercial real estate,

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Speaker 2: as you brought up as well. At some point this

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Speaker 2: is going to come to a head. But I think

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Speaker 2: they're just going to kind of keep playing it safe

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Speaker 2: and playing at cool for the next several months until

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Speaker 2: something happens. So we're in this a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a goldilocks period right now.

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Speaker 1: Based off of their you know, based off of the

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Speaker 1: way they handle two thousand and eight and even happen

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, it seems to me, if I had

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Speaker 1: to guess the commercial real estate market, you know, the

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Speaker 1: bond market, there isn't really that big of a deal.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it is, it's a big ticking time bomb,

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Speaker 1: has to be refinanced the next twelve months, et cetera

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Speaker 1: at new higher rates. But I mean, I think the

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Speaker 1: Fed's is going to take those bonds onto their books

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Speaker 1: and just kind of stick them off in a corner.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it's a really big deal or do

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Speaker 1: you think it probably just kind of gets swept under

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Speaker 1: the rug.

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Speaker 2: Swept under the rug as well. I would not want

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Speaker 2: to be really heavily involved in commercial real estate at

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Speaker 2: this point. I think it's going to be kind of

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Speaker 2: weak and ugly for the next several years. It's going

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Speaker 2: to take a while to work all of this out.

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Speaker 2: But I agree with you, I don't think it's a

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Speaker 2: two thousand and eight kind of catastrophe. We just don't

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Speaker 2: have that subprime mortgage crisis like we you know, the

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Speaker 2: dominoes aren't in place for that kind of catastrophe. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to just continue to sweep the

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Speaker 2: problems under the rug. And I call those liquidity injections.

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Speaker 2: They're just like looking for where these problems are. They

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Speaker 2: add liquidity where needed, and by adding liquidity, they just

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Speaker 2: absorb that onto their balance sheet. Take all these creuddy

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Speaker 2: loans and put them on their balance sheet. So and

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Speaker 2: the way that gets resolved isn't through taxpayer dollars, which

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Speaker 2: the President likes to talk about, but it's actually through

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Speaker 2: debasement of the currency. And so we're going to see

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Speaker 2: more and more debasement.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if you're just tune in, you're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Mark Moss Show. I'm talking with doctor Jeff Ross from

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Speaker 1: valshare Cap. We're talking about the markets, what to expect, liquidy.

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Speaker 1: I want to come back. We're going to talk about

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Speaker 1: some big changes in the bitcoin crypto market, and then

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Speaker 1: we'll get into healthcare.

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Speaker 3: So don't go away.

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Speaker 1: I'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. If you're

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Speaker 1: just tune in you were listening to the Mark Moss Show.

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Speaker 1: We're talking with doctor Jeff Ross from Valshire Cap and

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Speaker 1: we're talking about the markets and liquidity and so much more. Now,

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Speaker 1: you know one thing that has been sort of interesting, Well,

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Speaker 1: I guess we've sort of seen the return of risk

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Speaker 1: stocks you talked about earlier. You know, you thought some

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Speaker 1: of these AI stocks have been getting overbought. Really it's

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Speaker 1: what seven stocks propping up the top five hundred stocks,

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Speaker 1: like the S and P five hundred, and they're most

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Speaker 1: of the ones that maybe have some exposure to AI,

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Speaker 1: you know, Nvidia, Apple, Google, et cetera. But Bitcoin has

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Speaker 1: sort of rallied with that. One of the big things

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Speaker 1: that really seemed to get bitcoin to pop last week

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Speaker 1: was the news of Blackrock coming and not just Blackrock,

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Speaker 1: but the rest of the institutions and I think you

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Speaker 1: know Blackrock Fidelity Citadel.

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Speaker 3: The new exchange that they opened up.

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Speaker 1: It's pretty interesting at a time when like some people

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Speaker 1: think the entire cryptocurrency market is dead, and I know

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Speaker 1: you and I are, well, bitcoin and crypto are different,

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Speaker 1: so maybe the crypto market is dead, but bitcoin is

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Speaker 1: now rising up because of Blackrock, fidality, Citadel what's your

435
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,640
Speaker 1: take on that kind of whole mess.

436
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,639
Speaker 2: There, Yeah, great question. So my take on it is

437
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 2: that this isn't well. First of all, I would say

438
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,200
Speaker 2: it's probably not a coincidence, right that the that the

439
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 2: SEC is coming in with their lawsuits against these crypto

440
00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 2: exchanges h and at the very same time or almost

441
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 2: you know what, a a couple of days later, Blackrock

442
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: comes out and files for this closed or open end

443
00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 2: trust sort of like an ETF. I don't think it's coincidence.

444
00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 2: I think they probably know that there's a good chance

445
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 2: that there's finally clarity, Like to your point, bitcoin is

446
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:45,280
Speaker 2: not crypto. We talk about this all the time, you

447
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 2: and I both do on Twitter, and we try to

448
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,639
Speaker 2: educate people about this. I think the markets are finally seeing,

449
00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 2: you know what. Gensler is finally putting his money where

450
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:55,880
Speaker 2: his mouth is. He's finally basically saying, look, there's bitcoin

451
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: over here, and this is safe for you, for institutional investors.

452
00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:02,159
Speaker 2: You you can think about going for it, you know,

453
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: and starting to invest in it. And all of this

454
00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,440
Speaker 2: crypto stuff he's wrangling up, and I think he's trying

455
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: to basically flush it out of the system and get

456
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:11,200
Speaker 2: it out of the United States, and so that clarity

457
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 2: is what markets like, and I think that's why we

458
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 2: saw this boost, and I think we'll continue to see that.

459
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 2: It's not a guarantee that this ETF or closed end fund.

460
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,840
Speaker 2: Excuse if I keep saying closing open to ended trust fund

461
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: get gets approved. But you know, I'd give it at

462
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: least a fifty to fifty likelihood that by twenty twenty

463
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 2: four we're going to have options available for our brokerage accounts.

464
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 1: A fifty to fifty huh, I would say, I would

465
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 1: say higher. And the only reason I say higher is because,

466
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,119
Speaker 1: I mean Black Rocks seems to have become the de

467
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 1: facto arm of the FED.

468
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 3: Right through twenty twenty.

469
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 1: They kind of involved in the markets, buying up stuff

470
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 1: for the FED, and then even through this banking crisis,

471
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,159
Speaker 1: they helped kind of the FDIC get through some of

472
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,439
Speaker 1: those banks. So they're kind of this de facto arm

473
00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,439
Speaker 1: of the FED. And I mean they seem to know

474
00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: a few things. They seem to have quite a bit

475
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: of sway and influence, and their track record I think

476
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 1: it's like five hundred and seventy five approvals to one decline,

477
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 1: So it's like almost like if anybody could, it would

478
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: probably be them. I mean, they probably have Gary Ginzler

479
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: on some little leash and you know, backline phone channel

480
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 1: or something like that. So I mean, neither neither of

481
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: us have any idea just based off of who they are.

482
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 1: They're swaying the government. I would I just have to

483
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 1: give him the benefit of dobt. I think it's probably

484
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 1: gonna happen this time.

485
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: I'll I'll just say, I think you and I both

486
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 2: know Joe Carlasari, who's an attorney friend of ours who

487
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 2: deals in this space. He's he's more embarrassed than I am,

488
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,680
Speaker 2: and so he's the reason I'm not wildly bullish about it, because,

489
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 2: like you, I think it's it's really hard to say

490
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: this is just a coincidence, the timing of all of this,

491
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,680
Speaker 2: and if anybody can get it pushed through and has

492
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: the ear of Washington, it's black Rock. I completely agree

493
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 2: with you, But I hear his voice in the back

494
00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,919
Speaker 2: of my head saying he still remains better. So that

495
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: pulls me down to the fifty to fifty.

496
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

497
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if it was you know, the people

498
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: that have tried before, it was Van Eck or whatever,

499
00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 1: like you're probably gonnat shot down like everybody else. But

500
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: but yeah, to the point that you kind of echoed

501
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,320
Speaker 1: just because of who they are and to your point,

502
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: the timing, it just makes me think that it's it's

503
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: a little bit different. So we'll see and then and

504
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,880
Speaker 1: then uh, you know, not just that, but then uh

505
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,439
Speaker 1: Fidelity and and Citadel getting into the game with the

506
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 1: exchange and so uh and and I think then the

507
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 1: f c SEC also just approved a like two x leveraged.

508
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, two x leverage futures e t F. Yeah, because

509
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 2: that's that's good for investors, right, you know, they're they're

510
00:22:30,119 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: they're all about investor protection, but they're they're approving two

511
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: x leveraged futures bitcoin ETFs, but they won't improve a

512
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,160
Speaker 2: spot big. I get it right, because futures are commodities,

513
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 2: so they're they're they're you know, ruled by regulated by

514
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: the CFTC. I get all of that, and that's that's

515
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: what they use for why they they don't approve a

516
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 2: spot exchange spot uh bitcoin e t F. But it's

517
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 2: just ridiculous, right, I mean, no regular investor, no mond

518
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,640
Speaker 2: paw investor, uh retail investor should be invested in these

519
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 2: future ETFs. They're nonsense. All they do is make money

520
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 2: for the operators of the ETFs themselves based on the fees.

521
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of slippage which occurs basically every time

522
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 2: you need to roll the futures forward, and so the

523
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 2: investors just lose on every angle of that deal. So

524
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 2: I'm I'm not a fan of the process so far,

525
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 2: but yeah, like you, I'm optimistic that this will get done,

526
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:22,879
Speaker 2: hopefully in the next year or so.

527
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 3: Yeah.

528
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I was kind of talking about this

529
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 1: earlier in my first hour, talking about the sec and

530
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 1: supposedly they're out there to protect the consumer, but that's

531
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 1: their words. Their actions always seem to prove the opposite.

532
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 1: I mean, even as traditional securities, you have to be

533
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 1: an a credit investor to get into pre ipo deals,

534
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: you know, private deals, and then they just dump on

535
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 1: public and then public's gonna brush in and buy and

536
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 1: they're the exit liquidity. And it's like all they're doing

537
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: is is wrecking consumers and even here like now going

538
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 1: hard aftercurrency to protect the consumers supposedly, but they're driving

539
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: the prices of all these cryptocurrencies down, which are wrecking

540
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 1: all the people that hold these crypto and then even

541
00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: to the point of this, this this ETF situation to

542
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: your point, I mean, you know, I think anyone that's

543
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: been around this space long enough, like you understand, like dude,

544
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,440
Speaker 1: trading bitcoin with two x leverage is dangerous. You know,

545
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 1: Kitlin Long has been pretty vocal about like, do not

546
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: trade bitcoin with leverage. And here we have a fund

547
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: setting up with all kinds of other problems to your point,

548
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 1: with the slippage and the roll over, all those things.

549
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:24,880
Speaker 3: And then you add the leverage on top of that.

550
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: Man that if they're trying to protect consumers, they are

551
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 1: going about it the wrong way in my opinion. Yeah,

552
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: even even you know, I was talking about in the

553
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: late eighteen hundreds, early nineteen hundreds, you had these like

554
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: these bucket shops that were trading stocks and it led

555
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,879
Speaker 1: to rampant speculation. You didn't have to own the stock

556
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: to bet against the movement of the stock, and it

557
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:53,879
Speaker 1: led to massive speculation and manipulation. But isn't that what

558
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: this is? You can bet against the asset without owning

559
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 1: the asset. Now you're putting two x leverage on it.

560
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: I mean, doesn't that just lead to them more speculation, manipulation.

561
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 3: It's insanity, I.

562
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 2: Think, yeah, it's crazy.

563
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:05,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

564
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 1: So okay, so when when do we know if that

565
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:10,360
Speaker 1: gets approved?

566
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 3: You know, I haven't actually looked at that.

567
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 2: I think it's by either March or April of twenty

568
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 2: twenty four as the latest they can approve it, though

569
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,400
Speaker 2: I think it's within the first maybe forty five days

570
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,439
Speaker 2: or so. It's possible that they could say yes, like

571
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: as early as by the end of the summer, but yeah,

572
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: I think they have until March or April of twenty

573
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: twenty four.

574
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: So does that change your short, medium, long term outlook

575
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,159
Speaker 1: of bitcoin or do you think the you know it

576
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 1: look if these were to get approved, would that change

577
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: your outlook? Or does the greater global macro picture still

578
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: sit in the driver's seat.

579
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? You know so, Like I said, I still always

580
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 2: start with uh with liquidity. The second thing I start

581
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 2: I look at is where are we on the bitcoin cycle,

582
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 2: the you know, the four year having cycle. I was

583
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 2: a skeptic of that, but I've sort of after just

584
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 2: studying it, I've come back to believing there are there

585
00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 2: is some sort of magical mathematical powers to the four

586
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 2: year cycle of Bitcoin, and that sort of supersedes other

587
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 2: macro factors that are going on. So I look at

588
00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 2: those two things first. That the important part is I

589
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 2: believe we're at the beginning of this new three year bowlmarket.

590
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,479
Speaker 2: We're about seven months or so into it. So I

591
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 2: look at basically any dip as an opportunity for buying

592
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 2: more versus twenty twenty two. When I you know, when

593
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 2: anything is in a clear bear market, I think you

594
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 2: short the rips. So Bitcoin, for its part, what is

595
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: liquidity doing. Is it in a bowl market? Yes? And

596
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 2: then you know, if these spot ETFs get approved, yes,

597
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: I think that is actually significantly bullish. I think that

598
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 2: is the real deal. It may be one of those

599
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,719
Speaker 2: buy the rumors, sell the news type event, like if

600
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,919
Speaker 2: we know it's going to be approved, the price usually

601
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: ramps up until that point, and then we may see

602
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 2: a little bit of a letdown, like around the day

603
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: that it is approved. But if we just get a

604
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 2: random surprise approval by the SEC, say gray Scale gets approved,

605
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 2: that gets decided, or black Rock gets approved, I think

606
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,959
Speaker 2: that's very very bullish. I do think there is a

607
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: wave of boomer money that's just sitting on the sidelines

608
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:06,919
Speaker 2: waiting to come into bitcoin in their four oh one

609
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: ks and iras. The number I heard was seventy two

610
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 2: trillion dollars worth of a boomer of assets is what

611
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: the boomers are holding, and not even one percent of that,

612
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 2: even close to one percent is in bitcoin right now.

613
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 2: So if these options become available, I yeah, I definitely

614
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 2: think that's going to move the price and it will

615
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: be very beneficial from a price perspective.

616
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, good, good, good, good input. If you're just tune in,

617
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 1: you're listening to the Mark Moss Show. I'm sitting down

618
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 1: with doctor Jeff Ross. We're talking about the markets, the liquidity, Bitcoin,

619
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 1: and now I want to talk about AI. But I

620
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: got to take a quick break, so I'll be back

621
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 1: with more a minute. Don't go away, be right back,

622
00:27:40,359 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 1: all right, Welcome back. If you're just tune in, you're

623
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,160
Speaker 1: listening to the Mark Moss Show, sitting down with doctor

624
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,600
Speaker 1: Jeff Ross. We've been talking about the markets, the liquidity,

625
00:27:46,640 --> 00:27:50,520
Speaker 1: the FED inflation, Bitcoin, crypto and sticking with this tech train.

626
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: You know, you had mentioned earlier that the AI stocks

627
00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,400
Speaker 1: you thought were overbought, and you know a few years

628
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:03,119
Speaker 1: ago was like blockchain, blockchain blockchain, block clam, block blockchain, everything. Right.

629
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 1: It was like, uh, companies, publicly traded companies were just

630
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: putting like blockchain in the name, right, and evaluations are

631
00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:13,240
Speaker 1: going up, and like every you know, every email and

632
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 1: every pitch deck I got was like blockchain, blockchap, blockchain,

633
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 1: and now it's everything's AI AI AI, everything has AI

634
00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 1: and and all of a sudden now right, and uh,

635
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: you know, I got tired of it with the with

636
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: the with the blockchain thing, and so now I'm just

637
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,600
Speaker 1: kind of like, look, I don't care if it has

638
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: AI or blockchain or web through whatever, like does it

639
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 1: solve my problem? Right? But I'm just curious to your

640
00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 1: point one, you've already kind of said it was it was.

641
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: It was potentially overbought in your opinion. Of course, we

642
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 1: know Marcus can stay irrational for a really long time.

643
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 1: But I'm curious, Uh, have you been playing around with it?

644
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: Have you seen in the have you have you tried

645
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 1: using it for investing it all? Or what's your kind

646
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 1: of experience with it? Uh?

647
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 2: So, I've I've looked at so a lot of people

648
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 2: are using it for investments. First of all, I don't

649
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: use that for a veil Shire for my clients at

650
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 2: all the the results I've seen so far on the

651
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,840
Speaker 2: people that are actually using AI, as everybody assumes that

652
00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 2: it's just going to be this phenomenal much better than

653
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: human investing, and so far the results have been pretty average.

654
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:16,719
Speaker 2: So so far AI has not yet figured out how

655
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 2: to crack that nut and to be extremely profitable. The

656
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: other the way I've used it personally, I use chat

657
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: BTC like the basic stuff and and and I'm also

658
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 2: not super impressed with that. To me, it's just kind

659
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: of a glorified search engine. That that is kind of

660
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: like the the you know, the ultimate dream of a

661
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 2: high school or a college student because they can write

662
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 2: a paper for them in five seconds. So I get

663
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: concerned about that. That the plagiarism and how you know,

664
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 2: how are these people going to learn to think and

665
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 2: collid information and then write it to put it out,

666
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 2: you know, in written form. I don't know that the

667
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 2: next next generation will be able to So it's kind

668
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 2: of the more more of the dumbification of the human

669
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 2: race because of the advancements. I will say that the

670
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 2: other people I've talked to regarding coding, those kind of

671
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: things you can just basically tell it what you want

672
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: it to do, and it just writes the code for it.

673
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 2: That's pretty that's pretty awesome and pretty phenomenal. So I

674
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 2: think that's a major advancement, and we're going to see

675
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 2: lots of great applications for that. It's in its early stages.

676
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: I do think it's it's the real deal. Like I

677
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: do think we're going to see advancements. I do think.

678
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 2: For instance, I'm a radiologist. I'm a physician who practices

679
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: radiology for people who don't know, that's medical imaging. If

680
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: you go into a doctor, you know, or to a clinic,

681
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: you get an X ray or ultrasound or MRI or CT.

682
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: I'm one of the doctors that reads that study, interprets

683
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 2: the images, and puts a report out. I think I

684
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: will be replaced by AI probably within ten years or so.

685
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 2: And that's because all that I do is pattern recognition, Right,

686
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 2: I take a clinical history. What's that maybe? Well, the

687
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: reason I think it's gonna take a little longer is

688
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: because I think doctors are going to fight it. I

689
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 2: think the medical institutions don't want to be replaced, so

690
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 2: they're gonna, you know, it's it's sort of the the

691
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 2: engine and what is it John Henry and against the

692
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: the steam engine story back in the eighteen hundreds whatever.

693
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 2: So I think it's going to be similar where we're

694
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 2: going to resist, resist, resist, and then it's finally going

695
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 2: to come in where well, okay, maybe a doctor will

696
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: be sort of in charge of the AI and then

697
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 2: eventually it's just going to be AI taking over everything.

698
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, it Peter Diamantes, I don't know if you

699
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 1: know who that is. He's like an mi T you know,

700
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 1: futurist guy, and I've listened to him quite a bit

701
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,920
Speaker 1: talking about it, and he's been very we He's actually

702
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 1: partnered with Tony Robbins and they're creating these new health

703
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: facilities all over the country. Anyway, they're trying to kind

704
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: of reinvent medicine. But he said he thinks that within

705
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 1: five years it'll be malpracticed to operate without it, kind

706
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 1: of kind to the point that kind of kind of

707
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 1: assisted doctor assisted.

708
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, and I agree with that, I just I

709
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: but I but I would not discount the fight that

710
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: the medical organizations will put. It's funny because I'm a doctor,

711
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 2: but I'm sort of cheering on a on the other hand,

712
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: and I know how good that will be for healthcare

713
00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 2: and to bring down the costs of medicine, uh for

714
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 2: for humanity. So I'm cheering that on while it's basically

715
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:00,520
Speaker 2: to my own career demise.

716
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, but yeah, he said it would be malpracticed to

717
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: practice without it, So you know, potentially you could get

718
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 1: rid of six or ten of you and then having

719
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: one doctor that reviews the results of it or something

720
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: like that. You know, I don't know, but to the

721
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: point that you said, you know, I do agree with

722
00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 1: some of it, like a glorified search engine. It's been

723
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: helpful for me, Like I've used it doing like research,

724
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: so like you know, looking back into you know, what

725
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 1: other parallels in market economies are like now today that

726
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: we had high inflation stagflation Oka nineteen forty okay, like

727
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 1: what what assets did good in those environments?

728
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: Okay? This okay? You know, and like kind of using

729
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 3: it more as a research tool. What the problem is

730
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 3: is it returns.

731
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: To one answer, but do you know if that's the

732
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 1: right answer exactly? And you know, typically if I was

733
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: doing on the search engine, I would have to sift

734
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 1: through however many a one in ten fifteen different you

735
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: know whatever research articles about that, and they would give

736
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 1: me different perspectives and then I would draw my own

737
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: conclusion based off of that, whereas here it just gives

738
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: me one answer and then I don't know if that's

739
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: right or not.

740
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,840
Speaker 2: That's that's my my problem with it as well. And

741
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:11,560
Speaker 2: maybe that gets improved over time. But you know, the

742
00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: subject that I know quite a bit about, maybe bitcoin,

743
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: maybe you know some economics, you know, radiology related stuff.

744
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 2: When I've used chat, BTC for it, gbt for it,

745
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 2: I've had that same problem. I'm like, well, that's not

746
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 2: totally right. And it seems to pick out the most

747
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 2: popular things. So you can see it doing a search

748
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: and say it takes the top three points from a

749
00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 2: from a search and then it puts those in this

750
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: this written form and it's it's not necessarily accurate, it's

751
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 2: just what's most popular. So that's that's my big worry

752
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: worry point right now about it.

753
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 1: Maybe the problem with technology is that, you know, we

754
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: become dependent on it, and so then you know, it's

755
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: the age old argument. I mean, we get more advanced

756
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 1: in some ways, we fall behind on other ways. You know,

757
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: For example, I always was I always felt like I

758
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: was really really good with like navigation and knowing where

759
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 1: I'm at and getting round, And now I use a

760
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: I use navigation everywhere I go. It's just pops up

761
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: on my truck and I have, you know, sitting there

762
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: on the dash or whatever, and like man, like, I

763
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 1: just I'm not near as good at navigating as I

764
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 1: used to be.

765
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 2: I'm just that's not That's why I say it's it's

766
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 2: going to increase the dumbification this, you know, it's making

767
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: us all more stupid. The smarter that gets because the

768
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 2: more reliant. And I'm exactly like you. I used to love.

769
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: I had maps all over my car and I would,

770
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 2: you know, figure out routes, and I always knew where

771
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: I was. I knew which way north was all the time.

772
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 2: I'm the same way. I'm starting to lose these skills.

773
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: And that's what I think. Because of this, you know,

774
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: these chat GPT capabilities, I think people are gonna they're

775
00:34:37,480 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 2: gonna not be able to research as well in the future.

776
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 2: They're not going to be able to sort through and

777
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 2: pick pick out what's true, what's only partially true, what's false,

778
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: and then also critically thinking about you know, how do

779
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 2: I collate all of this into a critical thought and

780
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: into a conclusion that makes sense. We're just gonna be

781
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: completely reliant on AI to do that for us. So

782
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 2: I'm kind of concerned about that from the humanity standpoint.

783
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:04,399
Speaker 1: When you put it like that, it does sound pretty scary,

784
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: you know. I was thinking about, like, you know, I

785
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: see all these teachers going, how are we going to

786
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 1: stop the kids from using this? And I'm like, why

787
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: would you stop kids? You should be teaching kids how

788
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: to use it, right, like it's the news technology. But

789
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: to your point, I mean, man, if you learn how

790
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 1: to you know, research and parse data and uh, and

791
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:23,879
Speaker 1: maybe you don't need to because you've got the AI.

792
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: But then again, you're you're trusting whoever loaded the information

793
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: into that, right, right, And so then if it was

794
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: like some sort of like decentralized AI that could like

795
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 1: learn from you. But that's not the case. I mean,

796
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: it's going to be whoever feeds it basically gives you

797
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: the answer and that's just the answer you have.

798
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:44,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the scary world.

799
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, especially with that, right, especially

800
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: with how orwelly and everything has been already right for

801
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 2: this this decade so far, everything COVID related in the vaccine.

802
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,000
Speaker 2: And you know, imagine if we just we all couldn't

803
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 2: do critical thinking and research anymore. And so we just

804
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: trusted what AI told us to do. And well, it

805
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 2: says you're supposed to do this, and you're supposed to

806
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 2: hide in your house, and you're supposed to get vaccinated,

807
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 2: you know, thing after thing after thing, and we would

808
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,919
Speaker 2: just have to trust that it's it's doing what's best

809
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,640
Speaker 2: for us, and it's giving us the right answer even

810
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 2: though it's there isn't black and white in the real world.

811
00:36:16,160 --> 00:36:18,759
Speaker 2: It's these shades of gray. And that's why that's why

812
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: you need critical thought.

813
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 1: Oh man.

814
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: Anyway, and we need it.

815
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: We need it now more than ever because you know,

816
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: the problem used to be how do we get the information?

817
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: And now today the problem is, you know, how do

818
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:31,279
Speaker 1: we parse through the information that we have? And so

819
00:36:31,400 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: critical thinking skills have only become more important, especially in

820
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: the day and age today where we have everything's misinformation, misinformation,

821
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: like we need to be able to understand that who

822
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 1: wrote the information? What other you know, what are their motivations,

823
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:47,600
Speaker 1: you know, et cetera, et cetera. Anyway, if you're just

824
00:36:47,640 --> 00:36:49,719
Speaker 1: tune in, you're listening to the Mark Mas Show. We've

825
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,760
Speaker 1: been talking with doctor Jeff Ross from Vausier cap.

826
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: And talking about the market. Hopefully you've enjoyed that.

827
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 1: Leave me a message let me know what you think

828
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: about this as well. Hopefully it's give you some clarity

829
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 1: and at least some different ways to think into the market. Now,

830
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 1: none of us know what the future holds, and so

831
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:06,440
Speaker 1: this is not investment advice, but hopefully you can use

832
00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: it to help you think better.

833
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 3: That's what we've got for today. Thanks so much for listening.

834
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: Until next time,