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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, how are you welcome into a Saturday episode

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Speaker 1: of the Daily Juice podcast with me Matt Perraultz. You

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Speaker 1: guys can follow me across all of my socials at

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Speaker 1: Sports Talk Matt and we are back after a two

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Speaker 1: and oh day. I don't have the graphic done because

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Speaker 1: of well, just don't worry about it. It was a two

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Speaker 1: and oh day. We're up two units yesterday. So both

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Speaker 1: NBA player props come in and hit for us. Joel

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Speaker 1: Embiid goes over, Alex Stark goes under. So we were

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Speaker 1: good there two and oh in the NBA, which is

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Speaker 1: good news for the future with NBA prop betting when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the prop.

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Speaker 2: Bet cheat sheets. So that's good.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you guys trailed that makes this week profitable so

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Speaker 1: far as we head towards Saturday. Okay, here is my

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Speaker 1: philosophy for today. There are a ton of Bowl games

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Speaker 1: not betting them. Don't love the NBA slate after what

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Speaker 1: happened last night, there were so many games not interested.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet hockey yet I got to

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Speaker 1: watch and still do some more research and get back

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Speaker 1: into watching hockey. There's only so many hours in the day.

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Speaker 1: I need to pay attention more as to what's going

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Speaker 1: on with hockey before we go back to betting hockey

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Speaker 1: later in the winter time. So I am focused entirely

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Speaker 1: on the two games to be played today. Okay, I

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Speaker 1: already gave you two plays already. I'll recapt them in

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Speaker 1: a second in case you missed them from yesterday. And

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Speaker 1: I've got three additional plays. I have five bets going

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Speaker 1: in these two games, Houston and green Bay. Sorry, Baltimore

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Speaker 1: at green Bay and Houston at the Chargers. Okay, these

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Speaker 1: are big games, these are important games. And in the

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Speaker 1: case of the Packers and the Ravens, we have backup

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks playing as both starting quarterbacks are out due to injury.

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Speaker 2: Oh.

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Speaker 1: This creates sort of a unique situation, and it's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a top sea turvy type of day

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Speaker 1: for that reason. But I think there's some real good angles.

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Speaker 1: We've been good in the NFL this year, coming off

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Speaker 1: of a five and oh day on Christmas in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: So let's just focus on the NFL for today and

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Speaker 1: then tomorrow once again, focus on the NFL tomorrow. Now,

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Speaker 1: a couple things. I'm supposed to be on a red

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Speaker 1: eye flight to Boston right now. I'm not The flight

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Speaker 1: got canceled and we were put on a flight tomorrow morning,

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Speaker 1: So this is going to drop on Friday night into

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning. The next Daily Juice podcast will come out

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Speaker 1: Sunday morning, East Coast time. Okay, Sunday morning, East Coast time,

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Speaker 1: and then I will do the live stream. I believe

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Speaker 1: it's Andrew Rickson and myself. We're both going to be

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Speaker 1: in New England at noon Eastern time. I will not

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Speaker 1: be on Pacific time. I will be on Eastern time

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern time for a big Sunday for us here

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Speaker 1: with a bunch of picks, plays and bets to get

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Speaker 1: into for Sunday. Okay, So don't freak out when you're like,

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Speaker 1: where's the Juice on Saturday night. It'll come out Sunday morning,

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Speaker 1: East Coast time. U West Coast people won't even realize.

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Speaker 1: You'll get up and it'll be there like usual, but

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Speaker 1: New East Coast people there will be a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a difference. So just a heads up on that.

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Speaker 1: Fingers crossed. I get out tomorrow because snow in the east,

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Speaker 1: issues in Vegas, rain, just weather all over the country,

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we get out here in Vegas and get

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Speaker 1: over it to Boston and have no issues getting over there.

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Speaker 1: And then we're live at noon Eastern time on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: and the juice for Sunday will drop on Sunday morning.

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Speaker 1: So I do have a hard Rock Bet of the

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Speaker 1: Day coming at you guys, So stay tuned for that

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Speaker 1: coming up here in a couple of minutes, because we

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Speaker 1: were going to jump in on the hard rock bet

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Speaker 1: a day.

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Speaker 2: And we're eight and four.

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Speaker 1: We missed it on Wednesday Thursday due to Christmas, even

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Speaker 1: Christmas Day, so we're gonna push it to Saturday and Sunday.

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Speaker 1: There'll be too hard rock bet per day of the

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Speaker 1: day for both Saturday and Sunday. Here for Week seventeen

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Speaker 1: of the NFL. Let's begin and let's talk a little

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Speaker 1: bit about what's going on here for the first game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm really excited to watch this Houston and the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: So let's go through some of the thoughts here. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So the Houston Texans on the road are four and

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Speaker 1: three straight up this season, the winning record on the road,

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Speaker 1: the Chargers are five and two. At home, the Chargers

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Speaker 1: are eight and two against the AFC. The Texans are

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Speaker 1: eight and two against the AFC. The Chargers have won

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Speaker 1: four games in a row. The Texans have won seven

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Speaker 1: games in a row. The Texans have beaten Dallas on

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Speaker 1: the road, the Chiefs on the road, two teams that

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Speaker 1: will not be in the playoffs. They beat Philadelphia at home,

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Speaker 1: a team that will be in the playoffs. They beat

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Speaker 1: the Raiders at home, a team that won't be in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. And then the last time they played what

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Speaker 1: I would call a good team. The last time they

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Speaker 1: played a good team, the Jacksonville Jaguars, they lost on

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Speaker 1: the road by twenty nine points. They got destroyed. It's

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Speaker 1: also the last time they played a really good defense.

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Speaker 2: Okay. The Chiefs defense is good. Okay, I'll give it.

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Speaker 1: To you, but it's not the same as what it

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Speaker 1: has been in different years. Dallas and Vegas's defenses are horrible.

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia's defense has not been the same for the last month. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's good, but it's not the same. It's not on

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Speaker 1: the level of Jacksonville. Okay, Jacksonville held this offense to

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Speaker 1: six points. Now it was outdoors on the road. I'll

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Speaker 1: give it to you, Okay.

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Speaker 2: Conditions matter.

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Speaker 1: However, the Texans played Indianapolis, held them to sixteen points,

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Speaker 1: played Buffalo, held them to nineteen points. Beat Jacksonville thirty

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Speaker 1: six to twenty nine. At home. They won against the Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: and that was that crazy come from behind down nineteen

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Speaker 1: points in the.

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Speaker 2: Fourth quarter game that they rallied, but they won.

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Speaker 1: The Jaguars beat this Chargers team thirty five to six.

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Speaker 1: I can't get that out of my mind. I also

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Speaker 1: can't get out of my mind the fact that Joe

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Speaker 1: Alt is not playing in this game. They have been

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Speaker 1: a far different team protecting the quarterback and Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: without with Joe Alt on the team, they're a different

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Speaker 1: team with Joel out tough and the offensive line has

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Speaker 1: got some other injuries that need to be monitored and

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Speaker 1: watched here. This is not a healthy offensive line for

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Speaker 1: the LA Chargers, and you really want your offensive line

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Speaker 1: to be healthy to be good to go in a

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Speaker 1: game like this. Given the pass rush that you're going

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Speaker 1: to see from the Houston Texans, I can't get that

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Speaker 1: out of my mind. I think defense travels. I think

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Speaker 1: we go money line. I don't think we need to

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Speaker 1: need the two points. I think the Texans are going

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Speaker 1: to go there and they're going to win the game.

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Speaker 1: I like the Texans money line at plus one ten

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Speaker 1: for one unit. We're combining that with the game going

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Speaker 1: over thirty nine and a half for the Chargers and

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Speaker 1: the Texans. I think we're gonna get into a relatively

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Speaker 1: high scoring game, or a higher scoring game than people

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Speaker 1: think here between these two. But I like the Texans

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Speaker 1: to win the game. I think we see a defense

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Speaker 1: or special teams touchdown out of the Texans. I'll take

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Speaker 1: the plus one ten Texans money line one unit to

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Speaker 1: win the game. Outright. Now, let's do the hard Rock

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Speaker 1: bet of the day. Okay, let's do that here because

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Speaker 1: it leads into the prop bet as well. Oh, hard

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Speaker 1: Rock Bet of the Day. Sorry about that, We got

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Speaker 1: to put this up.

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Speaker 2: We need to get the disclaimer up for you guys

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Speaker 2: on this. Hold on one second, we'll get that right

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Speaker 2: up for you guys.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for that, all right, hard Rock Better than

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Speaker 1: Day and the Dealers use podcast being brought to you

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Speaker 1: by hard Rock Bet. If you guys want to check

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Speaker 1: out some new features, the for you page and for

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Speaker 1: You tab is available at hard rock Bet. You can

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Speaker 1: sign up today plays a five dollars bet if it wins,

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Speaker 1: you get the winnings plus one hundred and fifty bucks

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Speaker 1: every day, so download the hard rock Bet app and

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Speaker 1: make your first deposit today. Let's talk about the Packers.

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Speaker 2: All right? Two backup quarterbacks. Who do you like?

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Speaker 1: Malik Willis who's played pretty well in Matt Lafleor system,

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Speaker 1: or Snoop Hudley and Snoop Pudley has played very well

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Speaker 1: in the Raven system, coming in and doing almost everything

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Speaker 1: that Lamar Jackson can do with this hardball team. There's

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Speaker 1: major rumors flying around the Ravens that Lamar Jackson is

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Speaker 1: playing video games at night every night. He's falling asleep

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Speaker 1: in team meetings, the team is adjusting practices to go

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Speaker 1: later in the afternoon because he cannot get up. That

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh and Lamar aren't talking. There's all sorts of smoke

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Speaker 1: and a lot of innuendo and rumor running around this team.

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Speaker 1: This is not a team I want to back on

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Speaker 1: the road at lambeau Field with a backup quarterback. It's

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Speaker 1: just not Matt laflour as the head coach of the

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Speaker 1: Packers is thirty seven fourteen and one straight up against

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Speaker 1: teams under five hundred, including a twelve two and one

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Speaker 1: record straight up over the last two years, and in

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Speaker 1: the month of December, Matt Lafleur up against teams under

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Speaker 1: five hundred is twelve and two straight up. Okay, the

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Speaker 1: Ravens can't close games. They keep on blowing big leads.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens in their last nine home games, Baltimore has

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Speaker 1: been just a awful team to scoring points early. They

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Speaker 1: just haven't scored points early. Haven't scored points early at either.

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Speaker 1: The Ravens are two and thirteen to their first half

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Speaker 1: team total, which is the worst mark in the NFL

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Speaker 1: this season. They just cannot win big football games. And

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Speaker 1: the Packers, the Chiefs, and the Seahawks on the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are twelve and four to the first half under after Christmas,

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Speaker 1: but this is a first half under. But I think

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Speaker 1: this is a Packers team that will run the football,

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Speaker 1: that will move the football, and that their defense is

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Speaker 1: going to cause problems for a Ravens team that I

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Speaker 1: don't think will be all that effective scoring the football.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of field goals could be possible

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Speaker 1: here for the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: Hard Rock bet of the day.

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Speaker 1: We're coming in with the Packers minus three at minus

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Speaker 1: one point fifteen. I like Matt Lafleur, I like Malik Willis,

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Speaker 1: I like this running game. I think they'll score, and

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Speaker 1: I don't like all the bad stories flying around the Packers.

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Speaker 2: We're eight and four in the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Rather, we're eight and four for the hard rock bet

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Speaker 1: of the day, We're coming in with the Packers minus three.

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Speaker 1: Now one more play for us here, and it is

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Speaker 1: a prop bet. Prop bet Cheats sheet likes Derrick Henry

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Speaker 1: over eighty three in and half rushing in receiving yards

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Speaker 1: coming up here. Derrick Henry is on a streak where

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Speaker 1: he has gone over this number rushing and receiver, so

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Speaker 1: sometimes not way over, but the last eight games, Derrick

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Speaker 1: Henry has gone over that number of eighty three and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing and receiving. He should have blown it

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Speaker 1: out of the water if the Ravens had just kept

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Speaker 1: giving him the football late against the Patriots, it was bizarre.

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Speaker 1: Patriots couldn't stop the run. They just stopped running with

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. And I think that won't happen in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter here against the Packers. In particular, with a

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Speaker 1: backup quarterback. You've got a projection of eighty eight point

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Speaker 1: eight rushing in receivings by the prop bet cheat sheet,

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Speaker 1: a seventy one percent cover probability, a thirty five percent

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Speaker 1: expected value play in a five star play. On top

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Speaker 1: of that, for Derrick Henry to go over eighty three

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Speaker 1: and a half rushing in receiving yards at minus one fifteen,

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Speaker 1: he has gone over this number four of the last

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Speaker 1: or three of the last four games he's got actually, sorry,

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Speaker 1: more than that. Sorry, He's got over this number one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,

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Speaker 1: eight times, like I said before, But sometimes his number

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Speaker 1: have been set really high, like again Cincinnati, he was

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Speaker 1: set at one oh three and a half. He got

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Speaker 1: one hundred against the Jets, it was ninety eight and

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Speaker 1: a half, yet eighty eight. The last time Derrick Henry

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Speaker 1: didn't get set over eighty three and a half rushing

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Speaker 1: and receiving was against the Bears during that thirty to

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Speaker 1: sixteen win where he had was number was ninety five

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Speaker 1: and a half. He wound up with under wer with

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Speaker 1: seventy one rushing and receiving yards.

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Speaker 2: That was nine games ago. That was in Week eight.

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Speaker 2: For this to happen.

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Speaker 1: So it's been a while since Derrick Henry's gone under this.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go ahead and take Derrick Henry over eighty

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Speaker 1: three and a half rushing and receiving yards against that

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Speaker 1: Packers defense coming up here for today. So our bets

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Speaker 1: for today, five of them, all involving two games. Ravens

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Speaker 1: Packers first half under twenty and a half. The number

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Speaker 1: has dropped down a bit. The Chargers in Houston over

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Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half for the game, Texans money

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Speaker 1: line for the game at plus one ten, Derrick Henry

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Speaker 1: over eighty three and a half rushing and receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: and the hard rock bet of the day is the

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Speaker 1: Packers minus three at home against the Ravens at minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen.

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Speaker 2: My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me across all my socials at

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Speaker 1: sports Talc Matt every morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: It is the Daily Juice