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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg surveillance that it often saved to the

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Speaker 1: UK only event far wider than that. But I think

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Speaker 1: they will most likely vote to remain within the European Union.

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Speaker 1: Roughly forty old out two hundreds saying the UK could leave.

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Speaker 1: So it's definitely a risk that the market has had

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Speaker 1: the price. Then if you look at the spread between

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Speaker 1: the federal funds rate and the Kenya it is flattened enormously,

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Speaker 1: even if the federal funds rate were to increase. Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance and

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Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good running everyone, Mike McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keen this Friday. I hope you travel well across

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Speaker 1: America this weekend. You're runing to all of you worldwide

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Speaker 1: as we in America go into a three day, three

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Speaker 1: day weekend, I say, very exciting. Um, I just learned, Mike,

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Speaker 1: I'm not here Monday. I didn't know that. Well, glad

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Speaker 1: you finally found out, because you'd be honestly lonely if

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Speaker 1: you came in here. We am teaching John Farroll this

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Speaker 1: weekend about cray paper and bicycle wheel and hot dogs

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Speaker 1: and American traditions. Yes, Bloomberg surveillance I brought to my

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Speaker 1: Cone RESIDEC Accounting, tax Advisory. Is your business ready to

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Speaker 1: We need to take a pole, Mike. Who should we

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Speaker 1: speak to? Um? Well, we should speak to Frank Newport

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Speaker 1: because he is Mr pol He's the editor in chief

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Speaker 1: of Gallup, and they are the people who, above all

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Speaker 1: are known for calling people up and asking what they think.

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Speaker 1: And I know that this two thousand sixteen presidential campaign

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Speaker 1: here they're doing a lot of that. So we wish

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Speaker 1: good morning to you, Frank. And Uh, now that I've

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Speaker 1: built you up, let me tear it down a little

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Speaker 1: bit and ask, uh, do we really get a lot

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Speaker 1: of information about that that that's useful about the presidential

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Speaker 1: camp paying this far out from the election? Well, it

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Speaker 1: depends how's this mimicking Bill Clinton? What's your definition of

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Speaker 1: useful is right? Or what your definition of information is? Um?

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Speaker 1: I think that the classic horse race polling, which we're

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Speaker 1: not doing at this phase, doesn't tell you much at all.

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Speaker 1: It's of information and of interest to kind of know

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Speaker 1: where the two candidates stand. But in terms of being predictive,

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Speaker 1: it tells us very little at this stage. But there

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Speaker 1: are other questions and other things that we can divine

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Speaker 1: about the American elector which are I think quite interesting

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Speaker 1: at this point. For example, what people think about the candidates,

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Speaker 1: their images, how that compares the images previously and also importantly,

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Speaker 1: um issues, what Americans want these people to be looking

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Speaker 1: at and how well they think they would address those issues? Well,

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Speaker 1: the presumptive honestly presumptive, but the likely maybe Democratic nominees.

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Speaker 1: Husband once made famous the phrase it's the economy stupid?

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Speaker 1: Is it the economy stupid? This year? Is is that

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Speaker 1: above everything else as an issue? Yes? How's that for

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Speaker 1: a quick answer? Right? Uh yeah, we just we just

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Speaker 1: just been analyzing the day again. We just ask americans, um,

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Speaker 1: what is the number one issue, single issue you would

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Speaker 1: want to do president to address? And here she takes office.

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Speaker 1: We just ask most the most important problem pace in

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Speaker 1: the country. We just said, here's a list of issues

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Speaker 1: for each one. How is important is it for the

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Speaker 1: candidates to be talking about it? And economic issues? The

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Speaker 1: economy comes to the top of any of those ways

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Speaker 1: that we have of looking at it at this point,

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Speaker 1: and that includes a lot of ways of looking at

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Speaker 1: the economy. A lot of Americans simply say the economy

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Speaker 1: and answer to those opening questions. Others say jobs, Others

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Speaker 1: say being able to make a looking wage. But there's

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Speaker 1: no question if if we're talking to both the Clinton

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Speaker 1: and Trump, we would say it's the economy stupid again

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Speaker 1: this year. What frustrates you the most about pulling in

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Speaker 1: May of two thousands sixteen. Oh, that's a great question.

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Speaker 1: I've been doing this for many, many years. Um, so

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Speaker 1: how would I answer? I think one of the things

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Speaker 1: that I've written about and consistently is disturbing about polling

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Speaker 1: is the fact that people will put single questions out

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Speaker 1: and assume this represents truths on the part of the

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Speaker 1: American public. For example, I recently see an end at

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Speaker 1: a poll on the transgender issue word in a particular way,

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Speaker 1: and that was out there, and people said, oh, Americans

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Speaker 1: are opposed to rules which would control which bathroom transgender

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Speaker 1: individuals could use. And yet when the New York Times

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Speaker 1: poll come out, and IRIS came out and others come

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Speaker 1: out where we had asked it in a different way,

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Speaker 1: we found a different result. So It's kind of like

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Speaker 1: medical research. As we've talked about before. You have to

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Speaker 1: look at the totality of research and not just rely

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Speaker 1: on anyone question to try to summarize the American public.

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Speaker 1: The second thing to frustrates me is when critics come

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Speaker 1: along and kind of capitaliersy say, oh, poles On do

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Speaker 1: a good job to represented the public, or they don't

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Speaker 1: call cell phones totally wrong, And I think that's too much,

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Speaker 1: too fast out. Let's frustrate to when I hear those

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Speaker 1: kind of things. Well, how do you answer that issue

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Speaker 1: about the cell phones? Oh, well, we call six of

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Speaker 1: all of our interviews with cell phones soon going to

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Speaker 1: be higher than that. So poultrs are well aware of

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Speaker 1: the fact that you know, almost half of Americans don't

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Speaker 1: have landlines anymore, and we take that into account, and

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Speaker 1: we're constantly adjusting how we do interviewing to take that

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Speaker 1: into account. Uh. Is it harder though, because young young people,

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Speaker 1: the majority whose only phone is a cell phone? Are

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Speaker 1: they less likely to pick up when Frank Newport's on

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Speaker 1: the other end of the line. Well, of course, of

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Speaker 1: the new it was me, they wouldn't be. But well, yes,

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Speaker 1: there are troubles with any kind of methodology. You know,

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Speaker 1: George Gallup used to go around a knock on people's

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Speaker 1: doors and a lot of people wouldn't enter the door

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Speaker 1: and let an interview with the clipboard comes into the

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Speaker 1: living room for thirty minutes, which he used to do

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Speaker 1: his people used to do. So they're always issues and challenges. Um,

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Speaker 1: we have a lot of people who don't pick up

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Speaker 1: land lines now because they say nobody calls in the landline.

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Speaker 1: So those are challenges. We're continuing in other firms to

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Speaker 1: look at other ways of getting hold of people and

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Speaker 1: talking to them. But right now we think we still

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Speaker 1: can do a pretty good job even with the challenges

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Speaker 1: getting representative sampled by cell phones and landlines. What have

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Speaker 1: you pulled about after Sanders? If we assume there's an

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Speaker 1: after Bernie Sanders, what does your pulling tell you? Well, Um,

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Speaker 1: we've asked in the past Sanders people whether they would

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Speaker 1: vote for Hillary and the majority said they would. And

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Speaker 1: whether they say they would or not now is not

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Speaker 1: as valid as we might think, because, as Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 1: has been saying on the campaign trail, a lot of

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Speaker 1: her people back in Owait said they would never vote

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Speaker 1: for Obama. And I think most of them ended up

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Speaker 1: doing it when he got the nomination. So I think

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Speaker 1: that Sanders people will come around her challenge. Her campaigns

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Speaker 1: challenges turn out. Young people would vote, will probably vote

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Speaker 1: for proportionately. There tend to be Democrats, of course, but

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Speaker 1: whether they're incited to turn out will be the real

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Speaker 1: challenge for for a Secretary Clinton. Now, obviously yours and

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Speaker 1: other polls have shown that neither Kennedy just particularly well liked.

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Speaker 1: Uh which direction are those numbers moving or are they

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Speaker 1: because we know them so well fixed? No, they're not fixed.

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Speaker 1: Look at Hillary Clinton's image if you do a graph

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Speaker 1: of it back to nine two, It's been up and

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Speaker 1: down like a roller coaster. So we have clear history

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Speaker 1: that her image can change. Very positive when she was

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Speaker 1: a Secretary of State, very positive when she was a

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Speaker 1: senator from the state of New York. Very positive when

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Speaker 1: her husband's being impeached, but very negative stay back in

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Speaker 1: a way. But she was running, so things can change.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's image is becoming a little more positive now

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Speaker 1: that he's consolidated thenmination on the part of the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: But we have evidence from another BB How's that billionaire

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Speaker 1: businessman Ross Baro back in that his energy could change dramatically,

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Speaker 1: that his Trump's at the convention, let's say here some

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Speaker 1: other times. But you bring up an important point. Do

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Speaker 1: we know too much about Secretary Clinton? Does she have

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Speaker 1: too much pulling or analysis? As you say it? Do

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Speaker 1: we do we do? We strive for candidates that actually

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Speaker 1: we know little about. I'll not necessarily so. Uh. You know,

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Speaker 1: that's an interesting question. Do we want a new face

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Speaker 1: or an old face? Which I don't have a direct

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Speaker 1: answer to if that's what you're asking. Um, I think

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Speaker 1: in a broader sense at this point, Americans are many

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Speaker 1: Americans are attracted to Trump because he is not necessarily

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Speaker 1: knew by the way we found we were pulling about

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Speaker 1: Trump in eleven so he's been on the political scene

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Speaker 1: a little longer than people think. He has been rumbling

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Speaker 1: about running. I think people are looking for somebody who

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Speaker 1: can who can change the process of our government works.

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Speaker 1: What does your pulling say about the minimum wage is

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Speaker 1: an economic tomic? Oh? That absolutely, We've been looking at

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Speaker 1: that for decades. Overwhelmingly favor whatever we've asked over the years.

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Speaker 1: However we asked over the years, the significant majority of

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Speaker 1: Americans say yes, Americans say yes, most recently to raising

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Speaker 1: it to fifteen dollars. Yes, the significant majority say, and uh,

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Speaker 1: is there any dollar figure attached or just the idea

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Speaker 1: of higher wage. Well, we've asked over the years with

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Speaker 1: dollar figures and without, But as I just mentioned, we

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Speaker 1: did specifically say most recently, do favor, opposed, agree, or

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Speaker 1: disagree with the idea of raising the minimum wage to

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Speaker 1: fifteen dollars by the year, which is a standards proposal,

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Speaker 1: And we got a significant majority who say yes, they

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Speaker 1: favor that. Let's come back with new editor in chief

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Speaker 1: of gallup of so many, so many questions to ask

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Speaker 1: a man who answers asked questions for a living, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: is razing the changes. I still have trouble Mike with

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Speaker 1: a completely narcissistic idea. No one's ever called me that

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Speaker 1: you're touching on a question I want to ask. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we gotta. I want to go back to the polling types.

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Speaker 1: And also off of Fred Manju's really interesting article in

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Speaker 1: The New York Times earlier this week about what Frank

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Speaker 1: thinks about polling millennials, which is a stereotype of the moment,

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Speaker 1: but nevertheless important as we try to go plus or

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Speaker 1: minus three or four percent forward to November, Free Newport

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Speaker 1: with Gallup thrilled to have him with us. Uh this

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Speaker 1: hour the markets. It's not like Job's Day, quiet before

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Speaker 1: Jobs Day or FED Day quiet of course Fed Day June.

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Speaker 1: But there's a churn into the market this morning. Brent

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Speaker 1: forty nine zero one a barrel this morning. That's check

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Speaker 1: in with Michael Barr and get the latest world in

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Speaker 1: national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you very much. A

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Speaker 1: beacon has been detected in the search for the egypt

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Speaker 1: airplane that crashed last week with sixty six people on board.

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Speaker 1: The beacon helps narrow the search to a three mile

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Speaker 1: radius in the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, a French vessel has joined

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Speaker 1: the search. It has equipment that can find the all

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Speaker 1: important flight data and cockpit voice recorders. President Barack Obama

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Speaker 1: visited the Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in Japan today and

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Speaker 1: paid tribute to the one forty thousand people killed when

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Speaker 1: the U West dropped in atomicbomb August sixth n President

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Speaker 1: Obama said death fell from the sky and the world

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Speaker 1: was changed. A New York City man has been sentenced

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Speaker 1: to six years in prison for calling nine one one

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Speaker 1: more than fifty times to report fake emergencies. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

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Speaker 1: around the world. Down Michael bar Michael, thanks so much. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and one oh nine sixty six A little bit of

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Speaker 1: strength over the last few days is Michael mcketh mentioned

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Speaker 1: dollar strength and three on d x Y with Frank

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Speaker 1: Newport of Gallup Bloomberg Surveillance. The news update brought you

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Speaker 1: by Sector Spider e t S. Why do I have

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Speaker 1: single stock when you can invest in the entire sector?

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Speaker 1: Visit sector spdrs dot com. We're called one sector e

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Speaker 1: t N. Global Business News twenty four hours a day

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, the Radio plus mobile app and

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Speaker 1: on your radio. This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and

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Speaker 1: I'm caring Moscow. U S no index futures remain, little

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Speaker 1: change to hire and we go to the first Word

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Speaker 1: Breaking news desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Bill, Good morning Karen. That's right. U S.

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Speaker 1: You just remained quiet today dot You just currently hired

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Speaker 1: by fourteen points. SPS gained two and as a futures

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Speaker 1: rise by seven the US ten yield at one point

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Speaker 1: eight two per cent on the US Economic Frinday eight

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Speaker 1: thirty GDP stimate point nine percent at ten o'clock Michigan

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Speaker 1: sent it and at one fifteen yelling speaks in Cambridge

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Speaker 1: after the LS night, Decker's year view trailed estimates. Pal

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Speaker 1: Alto Networks you for revenueview midpoint also trailed estimates. Shares

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Speaker 1: it down eleven percent pre market and Ultra Salon boosted

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Speaker 1: RPS growth and COMPS sales views Regarding airings this morning,

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Speaker 1: Big Lots raised your just DPS views and a deal

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Speaker 1: knows Thermo Fisher Scientific to buy f EI Company for

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Speaker 1: one oh seven fifties share in cash. Terek's ended Chinese

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Speaker 1: suitor talks proceeds with cob Crane's deal, and The Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Journal reported Valient rejected a takeover bid from Takeda

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Speaker 1: NTPG and other news lending clubs set in talks with

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Speaker 1: City Group for loan financing, finding some of your Wall

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Speaker 1: Street upgrades and downgrades. Deckers cut to neutral versus by

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Speaker 1: over at City Group at Deutsche Bank, Trina Solar and

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Speaker 1: paal Alto Networks cut to hold Sitizen Farms downgraded to

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Speaker 1: neutral at JP. Morgan and Nice Systems cut to neutral

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Speaker 1: over at UBS Live from the First Breaking News desk

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Speaker 1: on Bow Maloney Karen, all right, thanks Bill the here

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Speaker 1: lie breaking news over your Bloomberg type squaw go on

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Speaker 1: your terminal. Let's ask you you a w k go.

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Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen, thanks

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Speaker 1: so much. Bloomberg Surveillance brought you buy Investco to the

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Speaker 1: day's headlines. That you're searching for more investment views Investco's experts.

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Speaker 1: They can help find the latest thought leadership at the

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Speaker 1: investco blog. Visit investco dot com slash us to subscribe.

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Speaker 1: Were at Frank Newport of Gallop. Are really flushing out

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Speaker 1: some of the polling dynamics that we see. Always interesting, Frank.

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Speaker 1: One of the moments this week was Greg Valier's uh

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Speaker 1: sharp research note over the Horizon on Mr Trump talking

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Speaker 1: to the Governor of New Mexico in a more challenging way.

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Speaker 1: Is Mr Trump figures out how to speak to Hispanic

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Speaker 1: slash Latinos slash this slash that. What does your polling

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Speaker 1: say about the dynamics of Latino America? Well, there's no

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Speaker 1: question about it. They are negative on Trump. After he

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Speaker 1: made that statement in New Mexico, we looked at our

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Speaker 1: bigger samples at his image among female Hispanics and found

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Speaker 1: it was a nine favorable image overall for the worst

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Speaker 1: of any group we have in America. So he certainly

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Speaker 1: when he's talking to a female Hispanic governor, or about

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Speaker 1: a female Hispanic governor, it has a group there that

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Speaker 1: she represents, which at this point are extremely negative about Trump.

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Speaker 1: In fact, most most groups who don't identify their race

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Speaker 1: or ethnicity is white, were not Hispanic, are very negative

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Speaker 1: about Trump, his main constituency of those who like him

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Speaker 1: or white. If you say to our interviewers, I'm Hispanic

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Speaker 1: or I'm black, where I'm Asian something else very negative

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Speaker 1: about Trump. How firm are Trump and Clinton's support right now? Uh?

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Speaker 1: We gets such angry letters from people when they believe

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Speaker 1: we're criticizing one or the other. They really harden their

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Speaker 1: supporter or their persuadables out there. All they're clearly persuadable. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know. The fact of the matter is for most

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Speaker 1: contemporary presidential elections, the majority of votes are already locked

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Speaker 1: in based on partisanship. In other words, a significant percent

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Speaker 1: of Americans identified Republicans are going to vote that way

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Speaker 1: in the same thing for Democrats. So it's a relatively

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Speaker 1: small group of Americans taken as a whole, who could

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Speaker 1: actually swing one way or the other. That's where a

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Speaker 1: lot of political consultants you might interview will say, our

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Speaker 1: real challenge is getting people to turn out, not to

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Speaker 1: change their mind. But there's still a group in the middle,

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Speaker 1: relative smaller group who genuinely could go either way. Well,

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Speaker 1: then that raises the question, when you're out there polling,

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Speaker 1: what are you actually finding out if if people are

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Speaker 1: you know, already, if the majority of people are already

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Speaker 1: kind of locked in, Um, what do we learn from

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Speaker 1: you know, a subsequent poll. Well, that's a good question,

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Speaker 1: and that's why we say, again we're focusing more here

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Speaker 1: at Gallop on what I think is fundamentally important is

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Speaker 1: what do the people want these candidates to do, regardless

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Speaker 1: of who's elected. But that's why we said earlier when

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Speaker 1: we were talking here horse race polls at this point

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Speaker 1: don't tell us a lot because the election a is

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Speaker 1: saraily locked in when we get closer to November, regardless

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Speaker 1: of what people might say right now, I want to

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Speaker 1: go where Tom mentioned earlier, and as you know, how

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Speaker 1: many how many people say, uh, you know, I've heard

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Speaker 1: of gallup but they never call me in any one place,

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Speaker 1: say New York City. How many people do you call?

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Speaker 1: How likely is it that anyone is ever going to

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Speaker 1: hear from you? Well, we do a lot of interviewing,

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Speaker 1: but keep in mind a typical poll is a thousand people.

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Speaker 1: We actually do more interviewing to that. But just take

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Speaker 1: a thousand and we're talking about eighteen plus adult Americans,

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Speaker 1: of which there are well over two hundred million in

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Speaker 1: this country adults eighteen plus Americans. So do the math

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Speaker 1: and you can see for anyone pull your chance of

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Speaker 1: being included or is is extremely small. As it happens,

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Speaker 1: we interview a lot of people, so your chance has

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Speaker 1: been interviewed that gallop over several year perier actually not insignificant.

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Speaker 1: But that's the whole clience behind pulling, is that if

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Speaker 1: you take the sample right, just like a doctor who

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Speaker 1: takes your blood sample to project the chorestaurant in your

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Speaker 1: entire body, you can take this false sample and project

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Speaker 1: to the entire population very quickly. Here I saw a

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Speaker 1: millennial ad I won't mention who the ad was and

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Speaker 1: it was laughable how calculating it was about whatever a

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Speaker 1: millennial wants. When you pull millennials, what do you see?

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Speaker 1: What do you observe? Well, that's a huge group found

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Speaker 1: like thing pulling the baby. But you know, it's a

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Speaker 1: huge group, and they're they're very diverse. It's hard to

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Speaker 1: characterize them, but taken as a total group A they're

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Speaker 1: not involved than the political process, regardless of what we

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Speaker 1: might think. They're much less likely to vote than older people,

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Speaker 1: and that will be true in the fall and be

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Speaker 1: when they do vote. They skewed democratic there. They claim

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Speaker 1: to be independent, but when push comes to show, relatively

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Speaker 1: if you are Republican, very frank Newport, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much with a gallop pole as well, Mike. Images of

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Speaker 1: the President being greeted Uh and uh said goodbye to

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Speaker 1: by Ambassador Kennedy in UH Japan. The President on Air

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Speaker 1: Force one through Anchorage back to Andrew's Air Force Space.

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Speaker 1: I believe ten pmsh Eastern time tonight, long flight, long flight.

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Speaker 1: You and I've done it, and uh, you know they're

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Speaker 1: gonna stop at anchorage, which I guess the refuel Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but that surprised me. Because I know that Air Force

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Speaker 1: one can make it. Yeah, well there it is. But

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Speaker 1: but the trip whatever anyone thinks the most interesting trip

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Speaker 1: with Senator Secretaris say carry in Vietnam and the President

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