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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: daybac At podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Wednesday, the third of July in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepca.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, Sunak and Starmer

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Speaker 2: make their final pitches to voters. As polling suggests a

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Speaker 2: record breaking Labor win.

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Speaker 1: Biden blames jet Lag for his disaster just debate performance,

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Speaker 1: as one report suggests the president's lapses are becoming more common.

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Speaker 2: Plus Lepen's path narrows. Parties opposing the far out in

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Speaker 2: France unite in a bid to deny the national rally

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Speaker 2: and outright majority.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a round up of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: The former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has made a

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Speaker 2: last minute campaign push to rally conservative voters. In his

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Speaker 2: first public appearance this campaign, Johnson urged supporters to avert

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Speaker 2: a conservative wipeout.

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Speaker 3: Do you think this country really wants to give Starmer

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Speaker 3: that kind of mandate? I don't think. I don't think

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Speaker 3: they do. And yet yet Labor are so cocky that

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Speaker 3: they're barely They're so complacent they're so smug they're barely

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Speaker 3: concealing their agenda anymore, and we can see what it is.

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Speaker 3: Whacking up taxes on pensions, on property, persecuting private enterprise,

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Speaker 3: attacking private education.

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Speaker 2: Prius Chanson isn't standing as a candidates in this election.

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Speaker 2: He led his party to victory in twenty nineteen, but

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Speaker 2: was ousted by them following a series of scandals. The

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Speaker 2: Conservative Party has urged its voters to avoid giving Labor

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Speaker 2: a super majority of what they have called a quote

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Speaker 2: blank check.

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Speaker 1: Labor leader Kirs Starmer dismissed the Conservative's strategy as quote despot.

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Speaker 1: The front runner in the polls was sticking to a

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Speaker 1: familiar message of no complacency.

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Speaker 4: We go forward into the last yard, the last days,

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Speaker 4: and you know what they say, the last to the hardest.

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Speaker 4: It's really really hard now. Nothing must be taken for granted.

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Speaker 4: Every vote has to be earned. The poles don't predict

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Speaker 4: the future.

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Speaker 1: Despite Starmer's words, Bloomberg's composite pole of polls sees Labor

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Speaker 1: ahead of every other party by at least twenty points.

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Speaker 1: Kirstarmer has raised an ambitious goal of increasing economic growth

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Speaker 1: in the UK to two and a half percent. By

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Speaker 1: reforming Britain's paralyzed planning system and spurring the transition to

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Speaker 1: net zero, the.

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Speaker 2: Next government could save billions of pounds for the treasury

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Speaker 2: by making drastic changes to operations at the Bank of England.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Tea Adebayo has the story.

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Speaker 5: According to strategists at firms including Barclay's and City Group,

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Speaker 5: an overhaul of the country's quantitive easing program could stemp

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Speaker 5: mounting losses on central bank dues. The change would involve

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Speaker 5: the government selling less debt to finance its spending, causing

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Speaker 5: bonds to climb and yields to drop. Berklay's estimates the

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Speaker 5: accounting shift could free up twenty billion pounds a year

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Speaker 5: funds which could be used to meet costly spending pledges,

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Speaker 5: but markets might not react so positively if the move

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Speaker 5: is seen as diminishing central bank independence. Over twenty years

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Speaker 5: since the last incoming labor government shocked the markets by

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Speaker 5: surrendering control of interest rates to a newly independent Bank

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Speaker 5: of England in nineteen ninety seven in London, twa at

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Speaker 5: A Bayo Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio President Biden has blamed global travel and jet lag

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Speaker 1: for his disasters debate performance against Donald Trump. In June,

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Speaker 1: the US leader went to France with the eightieth anniversary

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Speaker 1: of the D Day landings and returned to Europe days

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Speaker 1: later for the G seven summit, which was then followed

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Speaker 1: by a trip to la Speaking to Donus, Biden said

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Speaker 1: that he didn't listen to his staff and as a result,

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Speaker 1: quote nearly fell asleep on stage. But prominent Democrats are

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Speaker 1: now beginning to wander aloud about the president's mental state.

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Speaker 1: Here is the former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on MSNBS

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Speaker 1: see yesterday.

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Speaker 6: So he has a vision, he has knowledge, he has judgment,

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Speaker 6: he has a strategic thinking. In the rest, he has

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Speaker 6: a bad night. Now again, I think it's a legitimate

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Speaker 6: question to say, is this an episode or is this

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Speaker 6: a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's

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Speaker 6: commently illegitimate of both candidates.

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Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi's comments on MSNBC come as The New York

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Speaker 1: Times reported that some officials and associates of the president

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Speaker 1: are concerned that Biden's instances of confusion or listlessness have

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Speaker 1: grown more frequent and more pronounced.

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Speaker 2: In France, parties opposing the far right or maneuvering to

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Speaker 2: try to keep the National Rally out of power. In

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Speaker 2: the second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday, candidates from

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Speaker 2: centrist and left wing parties have pulled out, and around

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Speaker 2: two thirds of runoff races to provide a single opponent

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Speaker 2: to the far right, which won the highest share of

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Speaker 2: the vote in the first round. Speaking to Bloomberg, the

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Speaker 2: former ECB president Jean Claude Trichet has predicted more cooperation

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Speaker 2: among parties.

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Speaker 7: I think that the technocuntic government is not in the

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Speaker 7: French tradition at all. It might be a solution in

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Speaker 7: other countries, namely Italy. What I would expect I think

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Speaker 7: that the president would probably try to have a coalition government.

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Speaker 2: Jean Claude Trichet, speaking there. French government bonds have gained

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Speaker 2: on the news of the revised candidate lists. The spread

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Speaker 2: between German and French borrowing casscenaro to seventy one basis

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Speaker 2: points on Tuesday. That's the tightest on a closing basis

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Speaker 2: since mid June. Federal Reserve charge your own Powell has

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Speaker 2: acknowledged the Center Bank has made quite a bit of

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Speaker 2: progress in reducing inflation, but speaking at the ECB Forum,

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Speaker 2: and Center and Portugal. He emphasized officials would like to

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Speaker 2: see more data before lowering interest rates.

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Speaker 8: We want to be more confident that inflation is moving

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Speaker 8: sustainably down towards two percent before we start the process

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Speaker 8: of reducing how type our policy is of loosening policy now,

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Speaker 8: so we've said and what we would what we'd like

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Speaker 8: to see is more data like what we've been seeing recently.

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Speaker 8: We'd also like to see the labor market remain strong.

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Speaker 8: We've said that if we saw the labor market unexpectedly weekening,

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Speaker 8: that is also something that that could call for a reaction.

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Speaker 2: Drum Pal speaking there in Portugal, the Fed's preferred measure

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Speaker 2: of in underlying inflation rows by just zero point one

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Speaker 2: percent in May. That's the smallest advance in six months.

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Speaker 2: But US job opening is unexpectedly rose, and data out

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday, booking the trend of a slowdown in the

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Speaker 2: labor market, which is seen as key to easing Traders

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Speaker 2: await US initial jobless claims and ADP employment data out

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Speaker 2: later today.

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Speaker 1: And there's been another day of records on the US

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Speaker 1: dot market with details. Here is Bloomberg's Charlie Pennett.

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Speaker 9: For the first time in its history. The S and

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Speaker 9: P five hundred closed above fifty five hundred to extend

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Speaker 9: up blistering twenty twenty four rally that has left analysts

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Speaker 9: scrambling to update their targets. It was the gauge's thirty

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Speaker 9: second record this year. Then ANCEDAK one hundred hit the

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Speaker 9: twenty thousand mark, also notching a record. Equities have defied

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Speaker 9: doomsairs amidst solid corporate earnings, the artificial intelligence mania, and

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Speaker 9: expectations at interest rates will drop. In New York, Charlie Pellett,

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Speaker 9: Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Now, in a moment, we're going to bring you the

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Speaker 1: latest on the UK election campaign and also renewed fears

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Speaker 1: among Democrats about Joe Biden's re election campaign. But also

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Speaker 1: a word on the latest in another election, of course

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Speaker 1: that we've been following very closely, this around France. The

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Speaker 1: deadline last night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, this is the key moment now, in the

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Speaker 2: space between the two rounds of the French parliamentary election,

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Speaker 2: we had more than three hundred three way races going

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Speaker 2: into the second round at the lower price candidates from

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Speaker 2: centrist and left wing parties, and now the majority of

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Speaker 2: those two thirds of them in fact have pulled out

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Speaker 2: effort to block the far out from getting elected. This

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Speaker 2: is the return of a principle in French politics known

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Speaker 2: as the republican front, where you have parties unite, taking

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Speaker 2: advantage of the two round systems try and keep the

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Speaker 2: extremes out of power. The question, though, now is whether

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Speaker 2: or not voters will follow those trends. Will the people

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Speaker 2: whose candidate has pulled out, be it a left wing

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Speaker 2: one or a centrist one, be tempted to vote for

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Speaker 2: the other candidate that's not the far right, And that's

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Speaker 2: something that's certainly much less certain when you listen to

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Speaker 2: political analysts in France talking about it. You've still got

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Speaker 2: around one hundred though, of these three way races that

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Speaker 2: are continuing into the second round. That's also unprecedented in

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Speaker 2: French elections. The previous record for these races was seventy

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Speaker 2: seven of them, so we're still likely to have a

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Speaker 2: record number going into this. Our colleagues have been writing

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Speaker 2: about what this means for the far right's bid for

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Speaker 2: power in France. La Penn faces an uphill struggle to

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Speaker 2: get a majority in the French election. Plenty more to

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Speaker 2: read on that on Bloomberg Dot com and on the terminal.

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Speaker 1: Well here in the UK, it's the final day of

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Speaker 1: campaigning for the general election. It's been dominated, of course

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Speaker 1: by Labour's poll lead and the rise of re form

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Speaker 1: UK are UK correspondent Lizzie Burn and joins us now

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Speaker 1: for more. Good morning, Lizzie. Labour has had this commanding

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Speaker 1: lead in the polls for weeks, but also for months

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Speaker 1: before the general election was actually called. You've been looking

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Speaker 1: at how this might turn out when it comes to

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Speaker 1: seat numbers.

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Speaker 10: Yes, so the bookmakers have given us various scenarios in

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Speaker 10: order of likelihood. These are according to Betfair Exchange, so

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Speaker 10: let me set them out for you to The most

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Speaker 10: likely scenario is an unprecedented two hundred and fifty plus

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Speaker 10: seat majority for Labor, which Caroline was barely conceivable five

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Speaker 10: years ago after the last election, when you'll remember Jeremy

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Speaker 10: Corbyn led Labor to absolute annihilation. But the latest polling

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Speaker 10: suggests that we are on for a supermajority here. This

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Speaker 10: is a term that has been imported into the British

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Speaker 10: parliamentary lexicon by the Conservatives to warn against Labor having

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Speaker 10: untrammeled power. Starmer has said its smacks of desperation from

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Speaker 10: the Conservatives, but he would be able to pass his

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Speaker 10: legislation pretty freely without having to worry about rebellion from

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Speaker 10: within his own party. The question is how much pressure

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Speaker 10: Starmer would come under to be more radical in his

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Speaker 10: economic plans. Bloomberg Economics says that it could actually be

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Speaker 10: a boon for the UK economy because the Infursuit for

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Speaker 10: physical studies you'll remember, has said that actually, at the

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Speaker 10: moment he's kind of gambling on growth now. The second

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Speaker 10: most likely scenario would be a landslide of only one

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Speaker 10: hundred and fifty plus seat majority, which would still be

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Speaker 10: a huge win for kir Starmer. He could still pass

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Speaker 10: his legislation, and to put it in context, Labour's best

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Speaker 10: ever result was in nineteen ninety seven, when Tony Blair

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Speaker 10: got a one hundred and seventy nine seat majority. This

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Speaker 10: scenario would still be about double Boris Johnson's eighty seat

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Speaker 10: majority in twenty nineteen. The difference is it would mean

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Speaker 10: that actually the Conservative wouldn't face extinction, and let me

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Speaker 10: just run through the last scenario, a narrower Labour win

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Speaker 10: of a fifty seat majority. Once upon a time this

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Speaker 10: would have been a big deal, Caroline back before Boris

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Speaker 10: Johnson's Party Gate, Liz Trust's fourty nine day premiership, but

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Speaker 10: now with expectations so high, it would be seen as

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Speaker 10: a bit of a disappointment. And I can tell you

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Speaker 10: how the headlines on Friday would be all about how

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Speaker 10: the Conservatives managed to stave off a massive defeat and

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Speaker 10: what on earth went wrong for kirst Armer.

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Speaker 2: What about this return of Boris Johnson to the campaign trail, Lizzie.

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Speaker 2: We haven't been hearing from him. Could this be something

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Speaker 2: that will help to save the Tories from a crushing defeat.

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Speaker 10: Well, remember he's not running as an MP this time.

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Speaker 10: He was once known as the Heineken politician who could

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Speaker 10: reach the parts of the electorate no one else could reach.

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Speaker 10: And he's been repeating this line about not surrendering to

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Speaker 10: a labor supermajority. Will it help you ask, Well, he

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Speaker 10: is divisive, there's a reason that he's not running to

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Speaker 10: be prime minister, and Rishie Sunac is. But it reminded

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Speaker 10: voters that gamble Gate, as it's being known, is the

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Speaker 10: story now and party Gate was the story of Boris Johnson.

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Speaker 10: As Philip Hammond, the former Chancellor, put it to us

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Speaker 10: on Bloomberg. That was when the rocks set in. But

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Speaker 10: here we have the conservatives making a last roll of

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Speaker 10: the dice because things are really desperate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Lizzie, thank you so much for being with us,

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Speaker 1: our UK correspondent, Lizzie Burden or to.

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Speaker 2: US politics now. Joe Biden blaming a hectic travel schedule

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Speaker 2: for his poor performance in a debate last week that

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Speaker 2: sparked renewed speculation over his ability to run for a

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Speaker 2: second term. The president's troubles further exacerbated by a reporting

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Speaker 2: The New York Times citing US and foreign officials expressing

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Speaker 2: concern over a series of instances in which he seemed

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Speaker 2: to be struggling. Primberg TV anchor critic coupters with us

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Speaker 2: for more on this. These reports add to comments that

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Speaker 2: we've heard from prominent Democrats like Nancy Pelosi seem openly

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Speaker 2: worried about Biden's health. How significant is this drum beat

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Speaker 2: of commentary.

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Speaker 11: It's definitely significant, and it's been growing as opposed to

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Speaker 11: fading since the debate, and that is a problem for

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Speaker 11: a lot of Biden's campus, bringing up questions of how

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Speaker 11: he actually operates within the White House himself. Reports also

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Speaker 11: coming out of how his family there's an inner circle

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Speaker 11: his family, senior aides kind of protect his real condition

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Speaker 11: from being exposed to the other the rest of the

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Speaker 11: White House staff, So concerns like that. When reporting like

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Speaker 11: that comes out, it becomes a real quick for broader America.

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Speaker 11: And you're already seeing that reflected in the polls, for example,

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Speaker 11: where you are starting to see Biden's numbers drop not

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Speaker 11: only relative to President Trump, but relative to some of

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Speaker 11: the other supposed candidates who could replace him, or at

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Speaker 11: least have been expected to be in that running, things

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Speaker 11: like Navin Good, people like Gavin Newsome, Kamala Harris, etc.

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Speaker 11: Who again are not officially running, haven't even really indicated

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Speaker 11: that they have that on their minds, but are still

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Speaker 11: in the polls rising a little bit, not as high

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Speaker 11: as bo Biden, but you can certainly see the direction

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Speaker 11: of travel.

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Speaker 1: Okay, how are Biden and the White House responding to

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Speaker 1: all of it?

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Speaker 11: Well, Joe Biden said that this is really a function

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Speaker 11: of his travel schedule. We already know. Previously, his aides

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Speaker 11: have said that the poor debate performance was attributed to

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Speaker 11: a cold. Even during the debate, that message from the

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Speaker 11: campaign was already sent out to a lot of the media,

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Speaker 11: I think in the first twenty minutes of the debate

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Speaker 11: or something like that. It's they're trying to control the

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Speaker 11: message that even though from the outside he may not

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Speaker 11: be able to be delivering it, from the inside, in

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Speaker 11: terms of actually executing the job being commander in chief,

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Speaker 11: he can make those decisions. And that's the messaging that

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Speaker 11: they're sticking to.

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Speaker 9: Christy.

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Speaker 2: What about you know, the kind of the eventualities of

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Speaker 2: where we go from here, what's going to push Democrats

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Speaker 2: to move against Joe Biden now or what might save

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Speaker 2: his candidacy.

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Speaker 11: Well, timing is of the essence. July twenty first is

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Speaker 11: the date that you need to know. That is the

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Speaker 11: virtual role call from the Democratic National Convention, And that's

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Speaker 11: why so much of this is ramping up, because they're

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Speaker 11: trying to see whether or not they actually do want

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Speaker 11: to make President Biden the presumptive nominee of the Democrat

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Speaker 11: Party now Joint twenty versus not the official date. It

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Speaker 11: is the expected date, But basically what it does is

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Speaker 11: kind of pull up the process from what would have

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Speaker 11: been in the Democratic National Convention, where they would have

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Speaker 11: solidified it in August and instead of bringing it up

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Speaker 11: a couple of weeks just to make that Ohio ballot deadline.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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