Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at
Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and then Proud Auto with
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get
Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2: I am Kayley Lions here on Balance of Power on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio, where we brought you the news
Speaker 2: earlier this week from the Harris campaign about a milestone
Speaker 2: crossed half a billion dollars fund raised since Joe Biden
Speaker 2: left the race five weeks ago, five hundred and forty
Speaker 2: million to the exact of which eighty two million, the
Speaker 2: campaign says was raised at the Democratic National Convention in
Speaker 2: Chicago last week. Now I will note here for full disclosure,
Speaker 2: Michael Bloomberg Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg LP, has contributed nineteen million dollars to Future Forward,
Speaker 2: which is a flagship super pac supporting Harris. I say
Speaker 2: that as we aim here to provide you with all
Speaker 2: of the facts, and the facts are right now. There
Speaker 2: is a fundraising gap between Trump and the RNC and
Speaker 2: Harris and the DNC. Filing show that the Biden to
Speaker 2: Harris campaign has raised more than a billion dollars this cycle,
Speaker 2: while Trump and the RNC has raised a little north
Speaker 2: of six hundred and thirty five million dollars. And it
Speaker 2: is to the RNC and it's co chair. We go now,
Speaker 2: Laura Trump, I'm pleased to say, is joining me here
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and radio. She, of course, is the
Speaker 2: co chair of the Republican National Committee. Great to have you, Lara,
Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. As we considered this fundraising gap,
Speaker 2: how do you aim to close it? Who do you
Speaker 2: go to?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, I don't think we ever keep pace
Speaker 3: with Democrats traditionally as Republicans. Look, you look back at
Speaker 3: the twenty sixteen race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton,
Speaker 3: and she far outraised us, and we know the outcome
Speaker 3: of that election. Now, of course, money is important. It
Speaker 3: affords us the ability to buy TV ads, to do
Speaker 3: digital advertising, to have a great ground game. And we're
Speaker 3: really proud of the number that we've raised so far.
Speaker 3: I think our most proud number may be our small
Speaker 3: dollar digital online fundraising. We are approaching our fiftieth day
Speaker 3: of over a million dollars raised in small dollar donations.
Speaker 3: These are donations under like forty dollars on average, And
Speaker 3: I think what that says is that you have the
Speaker 3: support of the American people behind Donald Trump right now.
Speaker 4: So we always aim to raise more money.
Speaker 3: We always try to encourage people to donate, and even
Speaker 3: in this bad economy that really is hurting so many people,
Speaker 3: we are still seeing very big fundraising numbers for Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 2: As you talk about the small dollar donors specifically, is
Speaker 2: that where you think more of the money you can
Speaker 2: raise will come from from the grassroots or there are
Speaker 2: other big ticket donors that you think you can pull
Speaker 2: in who may not have yet contributed to the campaign.
Speaker 4: Oh, we do.
Speaker 3: We do have our eye on some donors who we're
Speaker 3: bringing back into the fold, or maybe some new donor
Speaker 3: I won't give any names today, but some new donors
Speaker 3: as well. Look, you've seen Donald Trump really resonate with
Speaker 3: silicon over the past six months or so, and I
Speaker 3: think he's really shaken a lot of people awaken. A
Speaker 3: lot of people are now realizing how much better off
Speaker 3: their life, their businesses, and the trajectory of this country
Speaker 3: were when he.
Speaker 4: Was in office.
Speaker 3: And so you're seeing a lot of new donors and
Speaker 3: first time donors as well come in in a very
Speaker 3: big way.
Speaker 4: I do a lot of fundraising calls.
Speaker 3: I go to a lot of fundraising events, and oftentimes
Speaker 3: there are people coming up to me saying, I have
Speaker 3: never been to any political fundraiser in my life. I'm
Speaker 3: here maxing out to the RNC and the Trump campaign
Speaker 3: because they want Donald Trump back in office.
Speaker 2: Well, man, of course, it's one thing to raise money.
Speaker 2: It's another to consider how to spend it, and what
Speaker 2: the strategy should be and how it should change. Now
Speaker 2: that it's Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic
Speaker 2: ticket instead of Joe Biden, pulling is consistently showing us
Speaker 2: that it does seem the map may be wider for
Speaker 2: her than it was for Biden in terms of states
Speaker 2: she could win. She of course, is spending time in
Speaker 2: Georgia today. There's indications she's pulling better in North Carolina.
Speaker 2: Do you have to rethink your allocation to some of
Speaker 2: those like in the Sun Belt now that it is
Speaker 2: the Harris campaign not the Biden one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, of course you have a different candidate.
Speaker 3: You do have to change your tactic to an extent,
Speaker 3: and we certainly are doing certain things in very specific states,
Speaker 3: and we're looking at all the same polling as well,
Speaker 3: and we're making sure that where we need to kind
Speaker 3: of firm things up, we're going to allocate a little
Speaker 3: bit more money there. We're going to put more boots
Speaker 3: on the ground in those areas.
Speaker 4: So, yeah, it's a different game.
Speaker 3: But look, I think that apparently we're going to hear
Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris herself in her first television interview alongside.
Speaker 4: Her running mate tomorrow night. We'll see how that goes.
Speaker 3: And I think that after the September tenth debate, I
Speaker 3: think you're going to see another shift in numbers. I
Speaker 3: think people are going to very clearly see who Kamala
Speaker 3: Harris is. She's got a lot of questions to answer.
Speaker 3: She seems to have avoided the media very well to
Speaker 3: this point, and we really don't know where she stands
Speaker 3: on a lot of issues. And so I believe once
Speaker 3: the American people are not only reminded that she's been
Speaker 3: in office for three and a half years, that life
Speaker 3: is harder because she has been vice president as well
Speaker 3: for three and a half years, and she's got to sell.
Speaker 4: The American people.
Speaker 3: On four more years of this, I believe we're going
Speaker 3: to see polling shift again, and we feel very confident
Speaker 3: all across the country that we have our eye and
Speaker 3: exactly what we need to focus on, and that indeed
Speaker 3: Donald Trump will be re elected on November fifth.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess we'll wait and see what further detail
Speaker 2: we get from Kamala Harrison that interview tomorrow. But if
Speaker 2: I could just get some more detail from you, Laura,
Speaker 2: you are talking about identifying potentially areas in which you
Speaker 2: will now need to shift strategy and invest more resources.
Speaker 2: Could you illustrate for us where some of those areas are.
Speaker 2: Is it North Carolina? Is it Georgia? Where exactly are
Speaker 2: you now targeting to a greater degree?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, North Carolina is definitely a state where
Speaker 3: we've seen some movement. It looked very positive for Donald
Speaker 3: Trump in whenever he was going against Joe Biden. It
Speaker 3: still shows Donald Trump up on Kamala Harris, but we
Speaker 3: want to make sure that we increase that lead, so
Speaker 3: we certainly are prepared to put more money into that state.
Speaker 3: It is my home state and it's one that I've
Speaker 3: core want to win and I think Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is
Speaker 3: a must win state. I think that, you know, every
Speaker 3: election cycle we have seen consistently how important that state
Speaker 3: has become.
Speaker 4: I think the margins have tightened quite a bit there.
Speaker 3: You're going to see Donald Trump in Wisconsin coming up today,
Speaker 3: and so you know, we're making sure that everywhere that
Speaker 3: we felt very good prior to Kamala Harris being the
Speaker 3: nominee for the Democrats, we want to feel just as
Speaker 3: good on the other side of things, so we're prepared
Speaker 3: to invest wherever we need.
Speaker 2: Well, as you look at your home state, are you
Speaker 2: worried that the gubernatorial candidate there, Mark Robinson could actually
Speaker 2: create a drag on Donald Trump's own chances to see
Speaker 2: a problematic candidate for the Republican Party.
Speaker 3: Now, listen, I don't think you've ever seen that sort
Speaker 3: of movement for Donald Trump. In fact, I would say
Speaker 3: it's the opposite. I think that Donald Trump typically helps
Speaker 3: out the candidates in these various races down ballot races,
Speaker 3: whether it's within the state or for the House or
Speaker 3: the Senate, and so.
Speaker 4: That's not a concern at all.
Speaker 3: And I actually think you're going to look to races
Speaker 3: like you know, the race in Montana, the Senate race there,
Speaker 3: you're going to look at Ohio and Pennsylvanian. I think
Speaker 3: you're going to see that Donald Trump is going to
Speaker 3: be a huge boost for a lot of the down
Speaker 3: ballot candidates and the races within those various states.
Speaker 4: So that's not a concern for us at all.
Speaker 2: Well, of course, you know Donald Trump more better than
Speaker 2: most people ever. Will You are not just the CoA
Speaker 2: chair of the RNC, you are also his daughter in law.
Speaker 2: And what we have heard from Donald Trump pretty consistently
Speaker 2: in recent weeks on the campaign trail is that he
Speaker 2: is hearing from people close to him, his advisors, that
Speaker 2: they want him to focus on policy less so on
Speaker 2: personal attacks. But it does seem, and he has said
Speaker 2: as much that he'd like to keep going with the
Speaker 2: personal attacks. Do you have his ear on that, Laura,
Speaker 2: as his daughter in law and as RNC CoA chair,
Speaker 2: do you think he should be focusing more on policy?
Speaker 3: Well, I certainly have his ear, and he certainly asked
Speaker 3: my opinion about a variety of different things. And listen,
Speaker 3: I think that people have been very quick to criticize
Speaker 3: Donald Trump for the way he operates, and he definitely
Speaker 3: does not operate Keyley like a typical politician. He's still,
Speaker 3: even though he was president for four years, doesn't like
Speaker 3: to consider himself a politician. And I actually think you
Speaker 3: look back at the twenty sixteen election, for example, Donald
Speaker 3: Trump was such a great brander of people that it
Speaker 3: really gave him an edge during the primary with sixteen
Speaker 3: other candidates, all of whom could have been great presidents
Speaker 3: or great presidential nominees for the Republican ticket. And you
Speaker 3: look at the way that he branded Hillary Clinton. You
Speaker 3: look at the way that even in the early primaries
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four you saw him do the same
Speaker 3: thing with people like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. It's
Speaker 3: Donald Trump who was left standing at the end. So
Speaker 3: sometimes people don't agree with the way he operates in
Speaker 3: the beginning, but I actually think that people down the
Speaker 3: line start to realize maybe he had the right idea
Speaker 3: to begin with.
Speaker 2: Well, something else that many may disagree with Donald Trump
Speaker 2: about is whether or not he should be willing to
Speaker 2: say now, I will accept the results of the election
Speaker 2: whatever they are. Instead, what we have heard from him
Speaker 2: suggestions that as long as he thinks it was free
Speaker 2: and fair, that's when he will decide. Some have read
Speaker 2: that is if he wins, he'll accept those results, especially
Speaker 2: considering that at the RNC, Laura, you are not just
Speaker 2: charged with getting a Republican elected to the presidency. It's
Speaker 2: about the Republican Party as a whole in the balance
Speaker 2: of power in Washington. Are you concerned that kind of
Speaker 2: rhetoric around election integrity may actually harm the Senate and
Speaker 2: congressional candidates who are trying to keep hold of the
Speaker 2: House and turn the Senate blue. What if they're able
Speaker 2: to do that and your father in law does not win,
Speaker 2: is he still going to claim that this election was
Speaker 2: not valid.
Speaker 3: Look, I think that what you've heard from Donald Trump
Speaker 3: is if this is a fair election, which is something
Speaker 3: that I'm working on day and night at the RNC.
Speaker 3: It's the number one focus of the RNC right now.
Speaker 3: We have a huge election integrity operation because, let's be honest,
Speaker 3: half the country had a lot of questions, maybe more
Speaker 3: about twenty twenty. Those questions were never answered. People were
Speaker 3: just supposed to forget about him. And it's paramount that
Speaker 3: in the United States of America trust our electoral process.
Speaker 3: This is integral to who we are as a country,
Speaker 3: and so we are trying to re establish that trust.
Speaker 3: Every day, we are doing everything we possibly can making
Speaker 3: sure that people are confident that no matter if you're
Speaker 3: voting for a Republican, a Democrat, or a third party
Speaker 3: candidate in this country, your vote matters and your vote counts.
Speaker 3: And unfortunately, we've gotten a lot of pushback from Democrat
Speaker 3: run states, and it's been very challenging to get transparency
Speaker 3: in an issue where we really need transparency. But I
Speaker 3: believe that what we are doing right now at the
Speaker 3: RNC is going to further the notion that we do
Speaker 3: indeed have free, fair and transparent elections. And so I
Speaker 3: think Donald Trump saying if this is a free election
Speaker 3: and a fair election and there's no funny business here
Speaker 3: is a perfectly legitimate thing to say, because again, you
Speaker 3: go ask half the country, they don't feel like everything
Speaker 3: was completely fair in twenty twenty.
Speaker 2: All right, Laura Trump, appreciate you joining us here on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio. The co chair of the rn C,
Speaker 2: thank you so much. And of course, for those that
Speaker 2: do still have questions about the results of twenty twenty,
Speaker 2: Joe Biden did win the election, and no court found
Speaker 2: that there was anything actually wrong with the democratic process
Speaker 2: in the last election cycle. For quick reaction now to
Speaker 2: our conversation with Larai, turned back to Bloomberg Politics contributor
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzeno, of course, also of Iona University. Genie, just
Speaker 2: in our final moments, I would love your reaction to
Speaker 2: what we just heard from co Chair Trump there, especially
Speaker 2: this notion that they're working toward free and fair elections.
Speaker 2: We have no indication at this point, correct that they
Speaker 2: won't be free and fair.
Speaker 5: Uh, we don't.
Speaker 6: And of course, you know, just a few hours ago
Speaker 6: on Doctor Phil Donald Trump said, quote, I won the
Speaker 6: election against Biden, and the reality is he lost by
Speaker 6: over seven million votes.
Speaker 5: That has been well established.
Speaker 6: There has been no evidence found in a number of
Speaker 6: court cases that there was any stolen votes in that election. So,
Speaker 6: you know, it is this kind of thing. Yes, we
Speaker 6: do need a free and fair election. We had one
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty and he lost. So it's that kind
Speaker 6: of thing that we have to, you know, just consider it.
Speaker 6: And I would also say, very very interesting to hear
Speaker 6: her talking about the small dollar donors. As you look
Speaker 6: at percentage of what they have fundraised, Donald Trump is
Speaker 6: around thirty one percent and Harris is around forty one percent,
Speaker 6: so there is a gap there, but I agree with
Speaker 6: her that is a critical number to be watching. Are
Speaker 6: those small dollar donors that they are taking it.
Speaker 7: Well?
Speaker 2: And the other thing to consider here is not just
Speaker 2: whether or not the Trump and the RNC have the
Speaker 2: ability to keep tapping that base, but whether Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: still can we have a minute left Genie. She obviously
Speaker 2: has seen a frenetic pace of fundraising and she's enjoyed
Speaker 2: that since launching her candidacy, but is that really sustainable?
Speaker 2: Are these people who are likely to give to her
Speaker 2: more than once?
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, she has done very well. The wind
Speaker 6: has been at her back. Certainly, they are going to
Speaker 6: try as hard as they can to keep it up.
Speaker 6: And I think it's noteworthy that Laura Trump was talking
Speaker 6: about Silicon Valley. They have been supportive of Trump, but
Speaker 6: unlike with Biden, they have also been supportive of Kamala Harris.
Speaker 6: Of course herself from California, so that is also an
Speaker 6: area to be watching. How much is the split from
Speaker 6: Silicon Valley between a Trump and a Harris. But she's
Speaker 6: going to try to keep up this pace but it
Speaker 6: is been a stunning pace that over happened at over
Speaker 6: five hundred million dollars at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, incredible to see how quickly the money race and
Speaker 2: the race overall has changed. As we just heard from
Speaker 2: the R and C coachair herself, Laura Trump talking about
Speaker 2: tightening margins in Pennsylvania having to invest Moore in her
Speaker 2: home state of North Carolina as well.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and the
Speaker 1: nroyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York
Speaker 1: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm Kailee Lynes with a look
Speaker 2: at the campaign track. As we've told you, Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: and Tim Walls begin today a two day bus tour
Speaker 2: of Georgia, targeting specifically rural areas of the states. The
Speaker 2: strategy here or this state in particular. The strategy may
Speaker 2: be trying to drive out voters in these areas that
Speaker 2: they don't necessarily think they could win, but in where
Speaker 2: they could potentially reduce the margins, take their total vote
Speaker 2: counts statewide a bit higher and potentially get the sixteen
Speaker 2: Electoral College votes that come with it. So for more
Speaker 2: on this strategy, our political panel is with me Genie Shanzano,
Speaker 2: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of
Speaker 2: the Presidency and Congress and more a Gillespie founder and
Speaker 2: principle at Blues Jack Strategies are Republican and Democratic panelists today, respectively. Genie,
Speaker 2: first to you just on this notion that they aren't going,
Speaker 2: although they will be in Savannah for a rally tomorrow
Speaker 2: to wrap this thing up, They're not necessarily targeting the cities,
Speaker 2: the urban areas in which the highest concentration usually of
Speaker 2: Democratic voters is on this tour. They're going instead to
Speaker 2: areas that you wouldn't necessarily think they stand a chance
Speaker 2: of winning. Is this a winning strategy though, try to
Speaker 2: get the vote count at least higher in some of
Speaker 2: these other parts of the state.
Speaker 6: It is, And you know, I think it's a strategy
Speaker 6: the Democrats have finally learned. Joe Biden was the first
Speaker 6: Democrat to win Georgia in twenty eight years, and Rafael
Speaker 6: Warnock John oss Off when they won the state as Democrats,
Speaker 6: they showed how to do it, which was not act
Speaker 6: as if Atlanta is Georgia. There are Democrats in those
Speaker 6: rural areas, and to your point, while they may not
Speaker 6: win them, they win the entire county. They can cut
Speaker 6: down on the Republicans lead in those areas and make
Speaker 6: up for votes in other parts of the state. So
Speaker 6: that's what they're hoping to do. It's the same thing
Speaker 6: they're trying to do in Pennsylvania as well. Philadelphia is
Speaker 6: not Pennsylvania.
Speaker 5: We've got to.
Speaker 6: Hit those rural areas. So it's a very very smart strategy.
Speaker 6: They're also going to force Donald Trump to keep going
Speaker 6: back there because Georgia is something of a must win
Speaker 6: for Republicans to reach two seventy.
Speaker 2: Well, so, Laura, that's the other side of this coin, right,
Speaker 2: the more places where Harrison Walls try to compete, the
Speaker 2: more places they forced Trump advance to do the same.
Speaker 7: Right, absolutely, And to that point, you know, Georgia being
Speaker 7: so important for Republicans. It's also worth noting that the
Speaker 7: you know, kind of beef that's been happening largely because
Speaker 7: of Donald Trump lashing out against Governor Brian Kemp who
Speaker 7: is pretty popular. That doesn't bode well for Donald Trump
Speaker 7: and Jennie Vans. But I think that the relationship that
Speaker 7: down ballot Republicans have with Governor Brian Kemp and their
Speaker 7: favorable you know, respect for him, that they need to
Speaker 7: focus on that. You know, Trump should be really trying
Speaker 7: to repair that relationship because he needs Governor Kemp to
Speaker 7: do well in Georgia. But I think what we are
Speaker 7: seeing with Harrison Walls in this tactic that you know
Speaker 7: referred to, it's meeting the voters where they are, understand
Speaker 7: the long the big picture, and trying to meet them
Speaker 7: where they are and not necessarily just focusing on the cities.
Speaker 7: That's an important strategy and one that Republicans, you know,
Speaker 7: shouldn't take for granted a state like Georgia that it
Speaker 7: needs to be sought after.
Speaker 2: Well, so should Republicans also then be spending time in
Speaker 2: cities they don't necessarily think they can win outright, mora.
Speaker 2: Does this not go both ways? Absolutely?
Speaker 7: And you saw that already this year. You know, you
Speaker 7: saw Donald Trump campaigning places where especially like in New
Speaker 7: York and places out in California and places where you
Speaker 7: know you wouldn't necessarily think that Republicans even sot a chance.
Speaker 7: But he did it similar tactic where he was meeting
Speaker 7: the voters where they were and seeing, you know, if
Speaker 7: there was a group of voters to talk to you
Speaker 7: that were receptive to his message or receptive to you know,
Speaker 7: in a case of Trump, perceptive to you know, kind
Speaker 7: of the fear that he is reminding them. That stands
Speaker 7: to be real if at the time Biden Harris administration
Speaker 7: were to win again. But now with Harry's the top
Speaker 7: of the ticket, he's going to continue that messaging and
Speaker 7: reminding folks who maybe aren't doing so well in this
Speaker 7: current economy and are worried about their safety and security.
Speaker 7: He can reach voters in urban areas and talk about
Speaker 7: safety and security. You know. I think that's a message
Speaker 7: that Republicans again as a party, will continue to echo.
Speaker 8: Well.
Speaker 2: And I want to focus more on the state of Georgia,
Speaker 2: specifically for a moment longer gene specifically the election rules
Speaker 2: that will govern Georgia come November when the votes are
Speaker 2: actually being counted. Earlier this month, the Georgia State Election
Speaker 2: Board voted to make it easier for county officials to
Speaker 2: delay or refuse the certification of election results. This is,
Speaker 2: of course, four years after twenty twenty, in which the
Speaker 2: twelve thousand vote margin was something of an issue for
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. It raised the of course infamous phone call
Speaker 2: that's where the beef with Georgia Republican leadership, including Brian
Speaker 2: Kemp that more was referencing did come from. How concerned
Speaker 2: should we be about these new rules in Georgia and
Speaker 2: what they mean ultimately for us understanding who actually actually
Speaker 2: won the state in November.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm so glad you raised this because i think
Speaker 6: for as much as we talk about what Harris and
Speaker 6: Trump and Vance and Waltz are doing out on the
Speaker 6: campaign trail, the real action is going on at the
Speaker 6: state and local level in these boards, you know, with
Speaker 6: these election administrators. And we've already heard Donald Trump repeatedly
Speaker 6: laying the groundwork that if he doesn't win this election outright,
Speaker 6: something was amiss. And you see Democrats now taking this
Speaker 6: change that you mentioned with this board in Georgia to
Speaker 6: court to try to stop this change in the way
Speaker 6: that these votes are certified. This is very important and
Speaker 6: we're seeing it in all of these swing states, or
Speaker 6: many of them, where these fights are ongoing, and of
Speaker 6: course we also know that we're going to have a
Speaker 6: lot of election of servers on the ground an election day,
Speaker 6: and all of this could mean that come election day
Speaker 6: and election night, when we wake up the next morning
Speaker 6: or maybe don't go to sleep at all, we may
Speaker 6: not know who won because so much of this may
Speaker 6: be thought out in a county and state by state
Speaker 6: basis where these elections are obviously close, and where we
Speaker 6: have rules changing unclear, and really you have a lot
Speaker 6: of power given to local election administrators in this case
Speaker 6: in Georgia.
Speaker 2: Mara does this risk being a strategy that backfires for Republicans?
Speaker 2: For Donald Trump, who already is questioning whether he'll accept
Speaker 2: the election of results if he doesn't think it's fair.
Speaker 2: Is that something that could act as a deterrent for
Speaker 2: his supporters to go out and actually vote if they
Speaker 2: aren't necessarily sure that they can count on the results.
Speaker 7: I mean, if you're you know, a kid, and you're
Speaker 7: playing a game with like, you know, playing against your friend,
Speaker 7: and they're constantly saying you're cheating, You're cheating, I really.
Speaker 4: Want, I really want.
Speaker 7: That gets old after a while, and honestly, it's just
Speaker 7: it's annoying, and I think at some point voters are
Speaker 7: just going to be very turned off by the fact
Speaker 7: that he's constantly before the election has even happened, he's
Speaker 7: already is pointed out, he's already saying that unless I win,
Speaker 7: or if I don't win, something somebody cheated. So what
Speaker 7: does that mean that it's only if he wins that
Speaker 7: things are great and our system is perfect. That doesn't
Speaker 7: I mean, if you're really thinking about this rationally, that's
Speaker 7: a terrible message to send out to the voters that
Speaker 7: their vote doesn't matter unless he wins. That's ridiculous and
Speaker 7: that's not how our system should ever work. I do
Speaker 7: agree that I think that this race is going to
Speaker 7: be very very close, especially in neighboring states like North Carolina,
Speaker 7: to be very very close. That the margin is very
Speaker 7: small there, and it has been for a number of
Speaker 7: years for the presidential and so this is going to
Speaker 7: be one of those times where we have to rise
Speaker 7: above the fray of what Donald Trump is doing and
Speaker 7: really hope that we are, you know, a nation that
Speaker 7: can rise above juvenile remarks as his. It's concerning to
Speaker 7: me that it will backfire on down ballot races, because
Speaker 7: people will be so disenfranchised to even engage that they
Speaker 7: won't remember that the down ballot impact is really important.
Speaker 7: To vote for your representatives and your senators and your
Speaker 7: local school boards. That's really important.
Speaker 2: Well, Mori, I'm glad you brought up North Carolina because, Genie,
Speaker 2: after last week while we were in Chicago, we saw
Speaker 2: the crystal Ball Sabadoe's Crystal Ball move North Carolina into
Speaker 2: the toss up column. We now have just seen Cook's
Speaker 2: Cook Political Report do the same North Carolina to toss up.
Speaker 2: What does that mean for how both campaigns need to
Speaker 2: consider that state? In particular, knowing that the governor of
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was once on Harris's
Speaker 2: short list, he could potentially be mobilized in this state.
Speaker 2: What does Harris need to do and how do you
Speaker 2: expect Trump to try to counter her?
Speaker 6: Yeah, and at the DNC, we saw the final speaker
Speaker 6: before Kamala Harris came out was none other than Roy
Speaker 6: Cooper and that was not by accident. And he ended
Speaker 6: his speech by a shout out to the seven swing states.
Speaker 6: So Democrats know you mentioned that this had moved over
Speaker 6: in another forecasting model and now it is moved over
Speaker 6: and cook and it means that Democrats have a chance
Speaker 6: there that they may not have had a month ago.
Speaker 6: And that means that once again, this is going to
Speaker 6: come down to money and time and organization. And Democrats
Speaker 6: have the benefit of having a very popular governor, Roy
Speaker 6: Cooper at the top of that state, and of course
Speaker 6: a rather controversial and unpopular Republican vying to be governor,
Speaker 6: so that may dampen turnout amongst Republicans or get more
Speaker 6: Democrats out. So, you know, this was a very fascinating
Speaker 6: turn of events because there was a time not that
Speaker 6: long ago, like Republicans thought they had North Carolina in
Speaker 6: the bag, so to speak, not so much anymore, which
Speaker 6: means more money and more time for Republicans in a
Speaker 6: state they would like to have tied up and moved
Speaker 6: on to other more important states.
Speaker 2: Well, it raises the question of whether Republicans Donald Trump
Speaker 2: specifically is going to have the kind of time and
Speaker 2: resources to dedicate to each one of these states. Mora,
Speaker 2: he is losing the fundraising game to Kamala Harris, at
Speaker 2: least at this point it's Harris that has the cash advantage.
Speaker 2: How does that need to change how his campaign thinks
Speaker 2: about targeting these states if they aren't necessarily going to
Speaker 2: have the same kind of dollars to spend that the
Speaker 2: opponent will.
Speaker 7: Right, and you mentioned earlier that Donald Trump was out
Speaker 7: there on the campaign trail that he has moved. You know,
Speaker 7: he's doing these rallies. But the problem is that during
Speaker 7: these rallies he espouses the things about election and the
Speaker 7: big lie and things of that nature, and spewing off
Speaker 7: things that you know, it would take forever just a
Speaker 7: fact check everything he says, and that we have seen
Speaker 7: in North Carolina when the alt right policies come through
Speaker 7: is when Democrats actually end up doing better. So you
Speaker 7: have his candidate Robinson has said, you know, basically anyone
Speaker 7: who advocated for birth control was a witch. You know,
Speaker 7: he says outlandish things, but we saw Ry Cooper was
Speaker 7: elected because largely of a alt right bill that got
Speaker 7: put in place before his election. So you know, it's
Speaker 7: it's yes, it's important that Trump is out there on
Speaker 7: the campaign trail, but it's not helpful to downballot Republicans
Speaker 7: if he is espousing conspiracy theories and outlandish and you know,
Speaker 7: again derogatory things towards other people. It just isn't helpful
Speaker 7: to their messaging on the economy and safety and security
Speaker 7: because he can't say on a message. So, you know,
Speaker 7: North Carolina being a flip toss up state makes complete
Speaker 7: sense to me given what they have and Robinson, but
Speaker 7: also the super school superintendent, state Superintendent Morrison. So it's
Speaker 7: just that's a problem as well or more. I think
Speaker 7: your name is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Mara A. Gillespie, Bluestack Strategies and Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Politics contributor Jeanie shan Zano our political panel today. Thank
Speaker 2: you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast, just
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play and
Speaker 1: then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live
Speaker 1: on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Welcome back, I am Kayley Lines here on Bloomberg TV
Speaker 2: and Radio, as we cover the beginning of the bus
Speaker 2: tour of Georgia for the Democratic ticket Kamala Harris and
Speaker 2: Tim Walls, targeting specifically southern rural areas of this critical
Speaker 2: swing state. It's ahead of a rally they will hold
Speaker 2: in Savannah tomorrow, And of course it coincides with recent
Speaker 2: polls that Joe Harris is doing better than Joe Biden
Speaker 2: was in Georgia before he left the race in July.
Speaker 2: The latest New York Times Siena poll finding Trump up
Speaker 2: by four points, but that is within the margin of error.
Speaker 2: They're trying to make a difference in the Sunbelt, it
Speaker 2: seems so for more. Let's turn to someone who has
Speaker 2: been spending a lot of time on the campaign trail lately.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Riley Griffin is here with me in studio. So, Riley,
Speaker 2: I know you've been with Donald Trump this week. I
Speaker 2: do want to just begin, though, with what the Democratic
Speaker 2: ticket is doing. The idea that they're devoting too full
Speaker 2: days and resources to Georgia, a state that seems like
Speaker 2: it was Donald Trump's to lose just five weeks ago.
Speaker 2: What is that signal about the odds they think they
Speaker 2: have down south?
Speaker 9: They certainly think Georgia is at play. This two day
Speaker 9: bus tour, which will weave through rural communities and land
Speaker 9: in Savannah, as you mentioned, is a sign that this
Speaker 9: is a state they think they have the potential to win.
Speaker 9: And ironically, you know Kamala Harris is campaigning there this week.
Speaker 9: As you mentioned, Trump is currently up in the pools
Speaker 9: in Georgia. Trump is in Michigan, where Kamala is perceived
Speaker 9: to have an edge, So they are flip flopping there
Speaker 9: in each other's a potential battleground state.
Speaker 2: Well, and I know you were with Trump in Michigan
Speaker 2: earlier this week where he was focusing specifically on foreign policy,
Speaker 2: the Afghanistan withdrawal, which of course we're marking three years
Speaker 2: since this week, blaming Harris effectively for how that went.
Speaker 2: Interesting to take a foreign policy message to Michigan.
Speaker 9: Yeah, Well, notably, he was speaking before a crowd of
Speaker 9: National Guard members. It was the National Guard Association's annual meeting,
Speaker 9: so he had a crowd of troops and this speech
Speaker 9: resonated with them. We saw a lot of people in
Speaker 9: the crowd cheering, standing, laughing, and that message from about
Speaker 9: Afghanistan that he projected onto Harris extended to other foreign
Speaker 9: policy matters. He talked about a perceived US weakness in
Speaker 9: the rest of the world. He talked about foreign policy
Speaker 9: with China. He went so far as to associate the
Speaker 9: withdrawal from Afghanistan with October seventh in Israel, which is
Speaker 9: a big leap, but one that resonated with the crowd.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's something I've been asking a lot of Middle
Speaker 2: East experts about this week, whether there is some blame
Speaker 2: that should be cast on that withdraw. It seems to
Speaker 2: get mixed reviews. A lot of people have indicated that
Speaker 2: these things are very separate, but it's still a good point.
Speaker 2: And of course Jade Vance himself is going to be
Speaker 2: in a number of other swing states today, the other
Speaker 2: parts of the Blue rall Pennsylvania and then later on
Speaker 2: was Wsconsin. This is a pretty frenetic pace of campaigning
Speaker 2: we're starting to see from the Republican ticket after they
Speaker 2: were well. Of course Vans hasn't always been on it,
Speaker 2: but Donald Trump himself wasn't out and about on this
Speaker 2: many weekdays during the campaign just a month ago.
Speaker 9: You can see that they are responding to the momentum
Speaker 9: of the Harris Walls campaign in the wake of the
Speaker 9: DNC and certainly in anticipation of the closely watched debate
Speaker 9: that is forthcoming on September tenth, So a lot of
Speaker 9: momentum to build. There's a really short runway to election day,
Speaker 9: but not just election Day. Early ballots will start to
Speaker 9: be cast in coming weeks. So the game has started
Speaker 9: today and they are moving. You mentioned that Trump is
Speaker 9: in Michigan. You will also have a event in Potterville, Michigan,
Speaker 9: a very small town of three thousand people, this coming Thursday.
Speaker 9: And so the rural vote is at play, the suburban
Speaker 9: vote is at play, the youth vote is at play,
Speaker 9: and specifically in these seven swing states, they are making
Speaker 9: their mark.
Speaker 2: Well, just because you brought up the youth vote and
Speaker 2: I might consider myself a youth in this area, though
Speaker 2: I think Taylor Swift probably transcends generations. Swifties for Kamala
Speaker 2: has begun without Taylor Swift, though this isn't Taylor leading
Speaker 2: the charge, but Swifties are back in Harrisa.
Speaker 9: Yes, last night we saw the first ever event for
Speaker 9: Swifties for Kamala. The campaign manager is actually someone who
Speaker 9: formerly ran John Fetterman's campaign in Pennsylvania. So these young
Speaker 9: digital strategists are seizing the swift momentum despite the fact
Speaker 9: that she didn't come out at the DNC like many
Speaker 9: of us hoped, and Trump himself is doing that too.
Speaker 9: He posted a user generated excuse me ai generated picture
Speaker 9: of Taylor Swift backing him. So both parties would no
Speaker 9: doubt love that support were she one day to formally
Speaker 9: make a commitment to one or the other. But swifties
Speaker 9: right now are coming out on their own, and Elizabeth
Speaker 9: Warren was on that call, So you're seeing Democrats join in.
Speaker 2: Is Elizabeth Warren a swifty?
Speaker 9: She identified as a swifty? Everybody on the call had
Speaker 9: to name their favorite song and mark you was on
Speaker 9: the call, so you saw a lot of Dems coming
Speaker 9: and letting the people know which Swift song was theirs.
Speaker 2: Which one was Elizabeth Warrence, Oh.
Speaker 4: I can't remember.
Speaker 9: You're testing me? Which one is yours?
Speaker 2: All too well? Ten minute version? Obviously that is the
Speaker 2: only right answer for anyone considering. But it does speak
Speaker 2: to this point that she has been able to do
Speaker 2: something with social media with her campaign that we weren't
Speaker 2: necessarily seeing with Joe Biden. He raised the debate that's
Speaker 2: going to happen in a couple weeks it's on September tenth.
Speaker 2: That it does raise the question of how much of
Speaker 2: that is going to be the people who will watch
Speaker 2: it live versus the moments that could go viral that
Speaker 2: will be recirculated on TikTok or wherever social platform people
Speaker 2: find themselves in the aftermath.
Speaker 9: Ideally, either candidate wants to reach both the audience that
Speaker 9: is tuning into cable news and the audience that is
Speaker 9: finding these clippable moments on TikTok, And we saw at
Speaker 9: the DNC two hundred influencers get credentials to come and
Speaker 9: snap those little moments. And it's in fact something that
Speaker 9: the Harris Walls campaign has come under a little bit
Speaker 9: of criticism from because they haven't done big scale press interviews.
Speaker 9: But we actually get one of those this Thursday on
Speaker 9: CNN with Dana Bash. Both Vice President Harris and Governor
Speaker 9: Tim Walls will be joining CNN for that first kind
Speaker 9: of reveal, so another highly watched moment before the debate.
Speaker 2: And of course that interview being taped in Georgia where
Speaker 2: the ticket is today. Bloomberg's Riley Griffin, thank you so
Speaker 2: much covering the campaign trail for us as we get
Speaker 2: closer and closer to that vote in November, appreciate it.
Speaker 2: And of course, as we get closer to that vote
Speaker 2: and talk more about these candidates, it is worth pointing
Speaker 2: out that one of the candidates is still facing some
Speaker 2: legal difficulty, and there was a development in that regard
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. Yesterday he was hit with a new
Speaker 2: superseding indictment for Special Counsel Jacksmith in the twenty twenty
Speaker 2: election interference case here in Washington. It still charges him
Speaker 2: with the same four crimes. He still is the sole defendant,
Speaker 2: and yet it removes some things that could have been
Speaker 2: classified as a official acts. In the aftermath of the
Speaker 2: Supreme Court's decision in July that found Donald Trump is
Speaker 2: at least partially immune from official acts taken as president.
Speaker 2: I spoke more about this new indictment last night with
Speaker 2: Nick Ackerman, former Watergate prosecutor, and this is how he
Speaker 2: explained what's really different here.
Speaker 10: What the government has done here is, rather than take
Speaker 10: the initial indictment and mark it up before the judge,
Speaker 10: because Judge Chutkin has to decide which acts that are
Speaker 10: charged in here were official acts or which were unofficial acts.
Speaker 10: Official acts would particularly be immuned. So what the government
Speaker 10: has done is they've basically redone the indictment, taken out
Speaker 10: that entire section on the Department of Justice, and that
Speaker 10: Jeffrey Clark would be made the attorney general because he
Speaker 10: was going to send a phony letter to the various
Speaker 10: state legislatures saying that there was fraud in the election
Speaker 10: when there was no such fraud. But what they've done
Speaker 10: is they've alleged everything else in terms of acts that
Speaker 10: were not official.
Speaker 2: That was Nick Ackerman last night, and we turned now
Speaker 2: to another legal expert. Dave ahren Berg is with me.
Speaker 2: He is the state attorney in Palm Beach County. Welcome
Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Dave. It's been a while.
Speaker 2: We weren't necessarily thinking that there would be something new
Speaker 2: in Trump legal world necessarily yesterday, but this did drop
Speaker 2: in our lapse, And I think the question all of
Speaker 2: us had immediately is what really does this change about
Speaker 2: the likelihood that Donald Trump could actually be found guilty
Speaker 2: or innocent of these crimes, Whether or not it goes
Speaker 2: to trial before at the election, does that all remain
Speaker 2: the same even if it does try to bring this
Speaker 2: prosecution forward in someday, does it not necessarily accelerate the
Speaker 2: way in which it does.
Speaker 11: Bailey, good to be back with you. This means that
Speaker 11: the cases are going forward, but they're not going to
Speaker 11: happen before the election. There will be no trial of
Speaker 11: Donald Trump before at the election, except there could be
Speaker 11: a mini trial in Washington, DC in the election interference case.
Speaker 11: It is possible that Jack Smith pushes for this open
Speaker 11: this hearing where Mike Pence testifies and you find out
Speaker 11: more details about Trump's involvement before and after January sixth,
Speaker 11: whether they were official acts or unofficial acts. It would
Speaker 11: be up to Judge Chukin. There have been reports recently
Speaker 11: that Jack Smith and the Department of Justice did not
Speaker 11: want to go forward with the mini trial, but we
Speaker 11: haven't heard anything from Jack Smith yet. That's still a possibility.
Speaker 11: But even though these filings took place, they do not
Speaker 11: mean that these cases are going to be heard before
Speaker 11: the election. They will be happening after the election. It
Speaker 11: just means that if Trump loses the election, it will
Speaker 11: be game on for him in court.
Speaker 2: Well, just because you raise the former vice president, Mike Pence, Dave,
Speaker 2: I do wonder what you think about the fact that
Speaker 2: he is still included in this indictment for being vice
Speaker 2: president communications that the president was having with his vice
Speaker 2: president at the time, the vice president, of course, having
Speaker 2: that ceremony in the certification of the election is that
Speaker 2: actually something that could be damaging to Jack Smith's case.
Speaker 2: The fact that that was not removed from this new
Speaker 2: superseding indictment.
Speaker 11: Well, jack Smith decided to go right up to the
Speaker 11: line because that was a gray area. The Supreme Court said, yeah,
Speaker 11: we're going to give it a presumption of immunity because
Speaker 11: talking to your vice president is an official act. On
Speaker 11: the other hand, if Mike Pence is acting as the
Speaker 11: President of the Senate, then it doesn't mean that it's
Speaker 11: an official act. It may not be an official act. Plus,
Speaker 11: Trump allegedly was acting as an office seeker, not an
Speaker 11: office holder, someone who was trying to overturn the election,
Speaker 11: and trying to convince Mike Pence as the president of
Speaker 11: the Senate, not as the vice president, to throw out
Speaker 11: the ballot. So I see why Jack Smith did what
Speaker 11: he did. I think he's right to do it. But
Speaker 11: it shows you that Jack Smith decided to err on
Speaker 11: the side of moving forward with the prosecution. I'm prosecuting Trump,
Speaker 11: rather than deferring to the Supreme Court's broad immunity decision
Speaker 11: and saying we're going to take steps back. Now, he's
Speaker 11: going right up to that line.
Speaker 4: I think it's a good move.
Speaker 12: Well.
Speaker 2: On the subject of the Supreme Court's amenity decision, we
Speaker 2: got a bit more on that from one of the justices,
Speaker 2: who of course dissented. Katanji Brown Jackson sat for an
Speaker 2: interview on CBS and was talking about this case, and
Speaker 2: she basically just kind of talked about her concerns regarding immunity.
Speaker 2: Take a listen to what she said, Dave, and I'll
Speaker 2: have more for you.
Speaker 12: I was concerned about a system that appeared to provide
Speaker 12: immunity for one individual under one set of circumstances, when
Speaker 12: we have a criminal justice system that had ordinarily treated
Speaker 12: everyone the same. I think there are legal issues that
Speaker 12: arise out of the political process, and so the Supreme
Speaker 12: Court has to be prepared to respond if that should
Speaker 12: be necessary.
Speaker 2: And I wondered, if you ultimately think this question is
Speaker 2: coming back to Justice Ktanji Brown Jackson and her other
Speaker 2: colleagues on the Court, is that ultimately where this goes.
Speaker 2: Could we see once again Trump appealing this new indictment
Speaker 2: and the Court being put back in the position where
Speaker 2: it has to delineate what is an official and unofficial
Speaker 2: action in a way that it did not in its
Speaker 2: initial ruling in July.
Speaker 11: This is definitely heading back to the Supreme Court because
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court's decision was broad, but it was also vague,
Speaker 11: it was confusing, and you have these standards that need
Speaker 11: be fleshed out. So what's going to happen is that
Speaker 11: Jack Smith refiled the indictment. He trimmed off the fat.
Speaker 11: You know, they're not going to go after the communications
Speaker 11: with the Department of Justice and Jeff Clark and the
Speaker 11: attempts to remove the acting Attorney General, but everything else
Speaker 11: is a goat. And then Trump is going to say, no,
Speaker 11: it should not be a go You shouldn't be able
Speaker 11: to prosecute me for talking to Mike Pence, for example.
Speaker 11: It'll get appealed, it'll go all the way up to
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court, and they're going to have to give
Speaker 11: more meat on the bones their decision. I thought the
Speaker 11: decision that Justice Roberts put out was waiting on the
Speaker 11: pailffs is being confusing. It was unprecedented. It gave the
Speaker 11: executive branch way more power than ever before in our
Speaker 11: country's history. So anything that provides a little more detail,
Speaker 11: a little more guidance, is a good thing. And yes,
Speaker 11: it is headed back up to the Supreme Court at
Speaker 11: some point, which means more delays in this case.
Speaker 2: Well, on the subject of delays in the cases relating
Speaker 2: to former President Donald Trump, we of course saw the
Speaker 2: case that's in your neck of the woods, Dave, the
Speaker 2: Document's case in Florida, delayed, delayed, delayed, until ultimately it
Speaker 2: was outright dismissed earlier this summer by Judgejggling Cannon, who
Speaker 2: of course was a Trump appointee. We did hear from
Speaker 2: Jack Smith also this week in essentially trying to get
Speaker 2: that case to be revived and to move forward, filing
Speaker 2: essentially an appeal that says, hey, I was constitutionally appointed.
Speaker 2: That's obviously not what Judge Cannon found in this case.
Speaker 2: Do you expect he will be successful? Will this be
Speaker 2: a case that is able to move forward? Word?
Speaker 11: Yes, the Eleventh Circuit quarter appeal, a conservative circuit, will
Speaker 11: overturn Judge can And I feel very confident in that
Speaker 11: because Judge Canneth's ruling eyes in the face of all
Speaker 11: legal precedent. There have been other courts repeatedly that have
Speaker 11: allowed the Special Council to continue that. Now this is
Speaker 11: the first time a judge has ever said that the
Speaker 11: Special Council was unconstitutional because he has too much independence,
Speaker 11: which ironically is the opposite of what Donald Trump has
Speaker 11: been saying on the campaign trail, saying Jack Smith is
Speaker 11: just a tool for Merrick Garland and Joe Biden and
Speaker 11: the politicization of the DOJ. It's the opposite argument that
Speaker 11: his lawyer's made in court. And in the end, Judge
Speaker 11: can went along in a decision that I think certainly
Speaker 11: will be reversed by the Eleventh Circuit. I then think
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court may weigh in.
Speaker 7: Now.
Speaker 11: I can't say what the Supreme Court is going to
Speaker 11: do because they seem to find new ways to bring
Speaker 11: out extremist opinions, and so we'll see if they then
Speaker 11: create new rules. But I think for sure she will
Speaker 11: be over turned by the Eleventh Circuit. Then the question
Speaker 11: is will she be removed from the case. Jacksmith did
Speaker 11: not ask for her to be removed from the case.
Speaker 11: I think it's unlikely, but the Eleventh.
Speaker 4: Circuit could on it.
Speaker 11: Some say enough, you have been reversed on this Special
Speaker 11: Master in this case twice, and now you're reversed here.
Speaker 11: Let's find a new judge it's possible, but probably unlikely.
Speaker 2: And what's the timeline for all of this to play out, Dave,
Speaker 2: I'm guessing this also not likely to be something resolved
Speaker 2: prior to November.
Speaker 11: Yeah, Jacksonith seems to have taken this spot off the gas,
Speaker 11: knowing that this is never going to be tried before
Speaker 11: the election, and I think the Eleventh Circuit also realizes
Speaker 11: that there's no urgency in having to do this. So
Speaker 11: this will be months and then they'll come out with
Speaker 11: a ruling. Then it will be appealed to the Supreme Court.
Speaker 11: So the one thing that Trump is successful at is delay,
Speaker 11: win or lose. The delays are going to happen, and
Speaker 11: if he is elected president again, then it will pay
Speaker 11: off for him because his new attorney general will certainly
Speaker 11: drop every federal case against him. Who'll be left with
Speaker 11: the New York and the Georgia cases. But then it'll
Speaker 11: be a constutional crisis as to what happens when you
Speaker 11: have a president facing a criminal trial in Georgia in
Speaker 11: a state case while he's sitting in the White House.
Speaker 4: We've never been down.
Speaker 11: This road before.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredible to consider the possibility. Dave. Arenberg always
Speaker 2: great to have you here on Balance of Power. Appreciate
Speaker 2: your time. Dave Aerberg, of course, is Palm Beach County's
Speaker 2: state attorney.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play
Speaker 1: and then royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: We've also been watching geopolitics this week too, including the
Speaker 2: visit to China by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Speaker 2: He met today with officials, including the Chinese Foreign Minister,
Speaker 2: and we've got a readout from the White House about
Speaker 2: that meeting. They say the two sides held and this
Speaker 2: is a quote candid, substantive and constructive discussions, including Sullivan
Speaker 2: raising concerns about trade and unfair trade policies and the
Speaker 2: importance of peace in the Taiwan Strait. The statement also
Speaker 2: says that they discussed planning for a leader level call
Speaker 2: in the coming weeks. So maybe we should be on
Speaker 2: watch for Joe Biden and Hijinping to have a conversation.
Speaker 2: We want to have more on this visit and what
Speaker 2: tangible outcomes really we can't expect. Mary Lovely is joining
Speaker 2: me now. She is senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute
Speaker 2: for International Economics. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Mary, Always great
Speaker 2: to have you. So we know that they discussed these
Speaker 2: things that they've been discussing for some time. But even
Speaker 2: the statement itself alludes to the notion that they just
Speaker 2: are prioritizing the dialogue happening and maintaining communication. Is that
Speaker 2: really all this visit is about.
Speaker 8: Well, you know, I think the dialogue is important. It
Speaker 8: has certainly changed. We've seen since the meeting in San
Speaker 8: Francisco last year between the two leaders, a real change
Speaker 8: in China's approach, for example, to American multinationals operating in
Speaker 8: the Chinese market. So it has produced some tangible changes.
Speaker 8: And of course it's always good when the temperature is
Speaker 8: a bit reduced and when we think that the leaders
Speaker 8: are trying to solve problems. So I would say, yes,
Speaker 8: this is important. We're seeing some movement. We've had important
Speaker 8: dialogues between key US agencies and their counterparts in China.
Speaker 8: We're seeing perhaps some movement on the fentanyl problem and
Speaker 8: a lot of high level discussions around Taiwan where I
Speaker 8: think everybody wants to avoid an unintended.
Speaker 5: Conflict. So I think this is good news.
Speaker 8: And it's good news also that they're talking about perhaps
Speaker 8: a leadership call before the election.
Speaker 2: Well, of course the leaders will be speaking. It will
Speaker 2: include one leader who has made himself effectively a lame duck.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden will no longer be President of the United
Speaker 2: States come January. Mary, How does that change the nature
Speaker 2: of these discussions. Is China going to be making any
Speaker 2: commitments to an outgoing president.
Speaker 8: No, I don't think China's going to be making any commitments,
Speaker 8: but it's important because a lot of the work is
Speaker 8: done under the presidential level, so it's done at the agencies,
Speaker 8: and I think this is important to continue those dialogues
Speaker 8: and also to clarify issues. Now, obviously, we have two
Speaker 8: candidates for president who hold very different views on China
Speaker 8: are likely to pursue very different policies.
Speaker 5: So the election is.
Speaker 8: Going to have a big impact on US China relations.
Speaker 8: And you're right, Kayley, that President Sheijinping knows that and
Speaker 8: will not make commitments.
Speaker 5: But it's still an important meeting.
Speaker 2: I think Mary, do you think She Jinping has a
Speaker 2: preference in terms of the outcome of the US election,
Speaker 2: knowing what Donald Trump is saying he'll do in regard
Speaker 2: to tariffs on Chinese goods specifically, though it is kind
Speaker 2: of a bipartisan thing these days to be hawkish on China.
Speaker 2: Do you think China thinks there is a real difference here?
Speaker 8: Well, I always say the last thing anybody wants to
Speaker 8: do is to predict what's in Hi Jinping's minds, So
Speaker 8: I won't say, but I will say that they do
Speaker 8: understand that there is a difference, and President Trump sometimes
Speaker 8: is viewed as someone that China might prefer because you know,
Speaker 8: they cut a deal with him on the Phase one deal,
Speaker 8: and and in some sense that is viewed as something
Speaker 8: they can work with. I would say that President Biden
Speaker 8: has been more effective in terms of restricting the flow
Speaker 8: of technology to China and gain engage engaging our allies
Speaker 8: in terms of joining those sanctions, So there is some
Speaker 8: possibility that they would prefer Trump administration. On the other hand,
Speaker 8: the Trump policies, at least from an economics perspective, are
Speaker 8: widely viewed as deeply destabilizing, and the last thing China needs, which,
Speaker 8: as widely reported with soft economy right now, is more
Speaker 8: global instability. So I think they would look at a
Speaker 8: continuation of the Biden policies in some sense through a
Speaker 8: Harris administration as welcome as well. Well.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you raised the technology export constraints that the
Speaker 2: Biden administration has put in place, because of course we're
Speaker 2: all a waiting for after the bell today results from Nvidia,
Speaker 2: this is a company that has been affected by the
Speaker 2: export controls. There are restraints around the kind of chips,
Speaker 2: the caliber of chips that they can sell in China.
Speaker 2: How much tighter do you expect those constraints on critical
Speaker 2: technology like semiconductors will get regardless of who the next
Speaker 2: administration is. Is this an area in which especially the
Speaker 2: companies who are making these things are going to have
Speaker 2: to expect at some point they can't sell to China
Speaker 2: at all?
Speaker 5: I think that is correct.
Speaker 8: I think every tech executive knows that this is uh,
Speaker 8: this is probably.
Speaker 5: Going to be a no go area.
Speaker 8: Interestingly, we've been doing new research, and you know the
Speaker 8: Trump administration, the Biden administration imposed export controls them through
Speaker 8: the Entity List, which restricts the types of things that
Speaker 8: you can sell to Chinese firms.
Speaker 4: There.
Speaker 5: They use it about you know, as equally as often.
Speaker 8: About about four hundred firms were listed by each so
Speaker 8: you know, this is not something new.
Speaker 5: I think it's something.
Speaker 8: That firms are going to have to have to deal with,
Speaker 8: but I think it's also something that we, as you know,
Speaker 8: Americans more generally have to deal with because it has
Speaker 8: side effects.
Speaker 5: It looks like it's a cheap way to.
Speaker 8: Prevent technology technology flowing out or unwanted technology technology trans
Speaker 8: to China.
Speaker 5: It's not on the.
Speaker 8: Budget, but it obviously has costs for these firms. As
Speaker 8: you noted, it affects their revenue and their stock price.
Speaker 8: And these are firms that rely on that revenue to
Speaker 8: do the R and D that keeps the United States
Speaker 8: at the forefront, So restricting their revenue in this way
Speaker 8: is a very potentially dangerous aspect to this whole policy. Obviously,
Speaker 8: there's a lot of good reasons why we want to
Speaker 8: restrict technology, but it's not the type of tool that
Speaker 8: can be used without careful consideration of side effects.
Speaker 5: Other side effects, of course.
Speaker 8: Are that these companies in China will just go to
Speaker 8: competitor firms and the more we use them, the less
Speaker 8: our allies are willing to go along with us, and
Speaker 8: so those sales will just move from American firms to
Speaker 8: foreign firms. And lastly, of course, we have greatly incentivized
Speaker 8: Sheet and Ping's desire and the flow of funds to
Speaker 8: technology firms inside China for indigenous innovation. And as we've
Speaker 8: always known, with dual use technology, there will be a ketchup.
Speaker 8: The US is trying to stay more than one generation ahead,
Speaker 8: but we are really fueling their ketchup process. So it's
Speaker 8: an important tool addressing important and imperative concerns for the
Speaker 8: United States, but it's something that has to be used
Speaker 8: very carefully.
Speaker 2: All right, Mary Lovely, it's always great to have you
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for
Speaker 2: joining us. Of course, coming to us from the Peterson Institute.
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see what kind of commentary around
Speaker 2: China we do get from Nvidia when it reports after
Speaker 2: the bell. I would point out that this stock, which
Speaker 2: of course represents seven percent of the S and P
Speaker 2: five hundred right now, is down about two point six
Speaker 2: percent on the day.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 1: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find
Speaker 1: us live every weekday from Washington, d C.
Speaker 3: At noon time stud at Bloomberg dot com