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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay and then Proud Auto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: I am Kayley Lions here on Balance of Power on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio, where we brought you the news

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Speaker 2: earlier this week from the Harris campaign about a milestone

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Speaker 2: crossed half a billion dollars fund raised since Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: left the race five weeks ago, five hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: million to the exact of which eighty two million, the

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Speaker 2: campaign says was raised at the Democratic National Convention in

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Speaker 2: Chicago last week. Now I will note here for full disclosure,

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Speaker 2: Michael Bloomberg Michael R. Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg LP, has contributed nineteen million dollars to Future Forward,

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Speaker 2: which is a flagship super pac supporting Harris. I say

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Speaker 2: that as we aim here to provide you with all

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Speaker 2: of the facts, and the facts are right now. There

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Speaker 2: is a fundraising gap between Trump and the RNC and

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Speaker 2: Harris and the DNC. Filing show that the Biden to

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Speaker 2: Harris campaign has raised more than a billion dollars this cycle,

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Speaker 2: while Trump and the RNC has raised a little north

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Speaker 2: of six hundred and thirty five million dollars. And it

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Speaker 2: is to the RNC and it's co chair. We go now,

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Speaker 2: Laura Trump, I'm pleased to say, is joining me here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and radio. She, of course, is the

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Speaker 2: co chair of the Republican National Committee. Great to have you, Lara,

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Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg. As we considered this fundraising gap,

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Speaker 2: how do you aim to close it? Who do you

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Speaker 2: go to?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, I don't think we ever keep pace

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Speaker 3: with Democrats traditionally as Republicans. Look, you look back at

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Speaker 3: the twenty sixteen race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton,

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Speaker 3: and she far outraised us, and we know the outcome

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Speaker 3: of that election. Now, of course, money is important. It

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Speaker 3: affords us the ability to buy TV ads, to do

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Speaker 3: digital advertising, to have a great ground game. And we're

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Speaker 3: really proud of the number that we've raised so far.

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Speaker 3: I think our most proud number may be our small

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Speaker 3: dollar digital online fundraising. We are approaching our fiftieth day

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Speaker 3: of over a million dollars raised in small dollar donations.

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Speaker 3: These are donations under like forty dollars on average, And

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Speaker 3: I think what that says is that you have the

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Speaker 3: support of the American people behind Donald Trump right now.

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Speaker 4: So we always aim to raise more money.

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Speaker 3: We always try to encourage people to donate, and even

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Speaker 3: in this bad economy that really is hurting so many people,

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Speaker 3: we are still seeing very big fundraising numbers for Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 2: As you talk about the small dollar donors specifically, is

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Speaker 2: that where you think more of the money you can

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Speaker 2: raise will come from from the grassroots or there are

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Speaker 2: other big ticket donors that you think you can pull

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Speaker 2: in who may not have yet contributed to the campaign.

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Speaker 4: Oh, we do.

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Speaker 3: We do have our eye on some donors who we're

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Speaker 3: bringing back into the fold, or maybe some new donor

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Speaker 3: I won't give any names today, but some new donors

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Speaker 3: as well. Look, you've seen Donald Trump really resonate with

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Speaker 3: silicon over the past six months or so, and I

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Speaker 3: think he's really shaken a lot of people awaken. A

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Speaker 3: lot of people are now realizing how much better off

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Speaker 3: their life, their businesses, and the trajectory of this country

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Speaker 3: were when he.

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Speaker 4: Was in office.

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Speaker 3: And so you're seeing a lot of new donors and

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Speaker 3: first time donors as well come in in a very

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Speaker 3: big way.

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Speaker 4: I do a lot of fundraising calls.

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Speaker 3: I go to a lot of fundraising events, and oftentimes

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Speaker 3: there are people coming up to me saying, I have

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Speaker 3: never been to any political fundraiser in my life. I'm

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Speaker 3: here maxing out to the RNC and the Trump campaign

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Speaker 3: because they want Donald Trump back in office.

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Speaker 2: Well, man, of course, it's one thing to raise money.

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Speaker 2: It's another to consider how to spend it, and what

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Speaker 2: the strategy should be and how it should change. Now

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Speaker 2: that it's Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic

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Speaker 2: ticket instead of Joe Biden, pulling is consistently showing us

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Speaker 2: that it does seem the map may be wider for

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Speaker 2: her than it was for Biden in terms of states

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Speaker 2: she could win. She of course, is spending time in

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Speaker 2: Georgia today. There's indications she's pulling better in North Carolina.

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Speaker 2: Do you have to rethink your allocation to some of

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Speaker 2: those like in the Sun Belt now that it is

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Speaker 2: the Harris campaign not the Biden one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, of course you have a different candidate.

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Speaker 3: You do have to change your tactic to an extent,

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Speaker 3: and we certainly are doing certain things in very specific states,

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Speaker 3: and we're looking at all the same polling as well,

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Speaker 3: and we're making sure that where we need to kind

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Speaker 3: of firm things up, we're going to allocate a little

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Speaker 3: bit more money there. We're going to put more boots

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Speaker 3: on the ground in those areas.

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Speaker 4: So, yeah, it's a different game.

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Speaker 3: But look, I think that apparently we're going to hear

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Speaker 3: from Kamala Harris herself in her first television interview alongside.

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Speaker 4: Her running mate tomorrow night. We'll see how that goes.

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Speaker 3: And I think that after the September tenth debate, I

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Speaker 3: think you're going to see another shift in numbers. I

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Speaker 3: think people are going to very clearly see who Kamala

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Speaker 3: Harris is. She's got a lot of questions to answer.

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Speaker 3: She seems to have avoided the media very well to

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Speaker 3: this point, and we really don't know where she stands

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Speaker 3: on a lot of issues. And so I believe once

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Speaker 3: the American people are not only reminded that she's been

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Speaker 3: in office for three and a half years, that life

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Speaker 3: is harder because she has been vice president as well

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Speaker 3: for three and a half years, and she's got to sell.

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Speaker 4: The American people.

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Speaker 3: On four more years of this, I believe we're going

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Speaker 3: to see polling shift again, and we feel very confident

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Speaker 3: all across the country that we have our eye and

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Speaker 3: exactly what we need to focus on, and that indeed

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump will be re elected on November fifth.

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess we'll wait and see what further detail

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Speaker 2: we get from Kamala Harrison that interview tomorrow. But if

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Speaker 2: I could just get some more detail from you, Laura,

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Speaker 2: you are talking about identifying potentially areas in which you

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Speaker 2: will now need to shift strategy and invest more resources.

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Speaker 2: Could you illustrate for us where some of those areas are.

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Speaker 2: Is it North Carolina? Is it Georgia? Where exactly are

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Speaker 2: you now targeting to a greater degree?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, listen, North Carolina is definitely a state where

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Speaker 3: we've seen some movement. It looked very positive for Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump in whenever he was going against Joe Biden. It

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Speaker 3: still shows Donald Trump up on Kamala Harris, but we

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Speaker 3: want to make sure that we increase that lead, so

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Speaker 3: we certainly are prepared to put more money into that state.

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Speaker 3: It is my home state and it's one that I've

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Speaker 3: core want to win and I think Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is

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Speaker 3: a must win state. I think that, you know, every

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Speaker 3: election cycle we have seen consistently how important that state

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Speaker 3: has become.

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Speaker 4: I think the margins have tightened quite a bit there.

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Speaker 3: You're going to see Donald Trump in Wisconsin coming up today,

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Speaker 3: and so you know, we're making sure that everywhere that

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Speaker 3: we felt very good prior to Kamala Harris being the

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Speaker 3: nominee for the Democrats, we want to feel just as

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Speaker 3: good on the other side of things, so we're prepared

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Speaker 3: to invest wherever we need.

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Speaker 2: Well, as you look at your home state, are you

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Speaker 2: worried that the gubernatorial candidate there, Mark Robinson could actually

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Speaker 2: create a drag on Donald Trump's own chances to see

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Speaker 2: a problematic candidate for the Republican Party.

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Speaker 3: Now, listen, I don't think you've ever seen that sort

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Speaker 3: of movement for Donald Trump. In fact, I would say

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Speaker 3: it's the opposite. I think that Donald Trump typically helps

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Speaker 3: out the candidates in these various races down ballot races,

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Speaker 3: whether it's within the state or for the House or

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Speaker 3: the Senate, and so.

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Speaker 4: That's not a concern at all.

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Speaker 3: And I actually think you're going to look to races

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Speaker 3: like you know, the race in Montana, the Senate race there,

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Speaker 3: you're going to look at Ohio and Pennsylvanian. I think

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Speaker 3: you're going to see that Donald Trump is going to

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Speaker 3: be a huge boost for a lot of the down

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Speaker 3: ballot candidates and the races within those various states.

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Speaker 4: So that's not a concern for us at all.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, you know Donald Trump more better than

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Speaker 2: most people ever. Will You are not just the CoA

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Speaker 2: chair of the RNC, you are also his daughter in law.

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Speaker 2: And what we have heard from Donald Trump pretty consistently

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Speaker 2: in recent weeks on the campaign trail is that he

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Speaker 2: is hearing from people close to him, his advisors, that

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Speaker 2: they want him to focus on policy less so on

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Speaker 2: personal attacks. But it does seem, and he has said

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Speaker 2: as much that he'd like to keep going with the

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Speaker 2: personal attacks. Do you have his ear on that, Laura,

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Speaker 2: as his daughter in law and as RNC CoA chair,

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Speaker 2: do you think he should be focusing more on policy?

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Speaker 3: Well, I certainly have his ear, and he certainly asked

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Speaker 3: my opinion about a variety of different things. And listen,

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Speaker 3: I think that people have been very quick to criticize

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump for the way he operates, and he definitely

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Speaker 3: does not operate Keyley like a typical politician. He's still,

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Speaker 3: even though he was president for four years, doesn't like

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Speaker 3: to consider himself a politician. And I actually think you

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Speaker 3: look back at the twenty sixteen election, for example, Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump was such a great brander of people that it

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Speaker 3: really gave him an edge during the primary with sixteen

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Speaker 3: other candidates, all of whom could have been great presidents

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Speaker 3: or great presidential nominees for the Republican ticket. And you

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Speaker 3: look at the way that he branded Hillary Clinton. You

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Speaker 3: look at the way that even in the early primaries

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four you saw him do the same

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Speaker 3: thing with people like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. It's

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump who was left standing at the end. So

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Speaker 3: sometimes people don't agree with the way he operates in

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Speaker 3: the beginning, but I actually think that people down the

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Speaker 3: line start to realize maybe he had the right idea

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Speaker 3: to begin with.

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Speaker 2: Well, something else that many may disagree with Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: about is whether or not he should be willing to

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Speaker 2: say now, I will accept the results of the election

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Speaker 2: whatever they are. Instead, what we have heard from him

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Speaker 2: suggestions that as long as he thinks it was free

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Speaker 2: and fair, that's when he will decide. Some have read

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Speaker 2: that is if he wins, he'll accept those results, especially

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Speaker 2: considering that at the RNC, Laura, you are not just

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Speaker 2: charged with getting a Republican elected to the presidency. It's

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Speaker 2: about the Republican Party as a whole in the balance

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Speaker 2: of power in Washington. Are you concerned that kind of

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Speaker 2: rhetoric around election integrity may actually harm the Senate and

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Speaker 2: congressional candidates who are trying to keep hold of the

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Speaker 2: House and turn the Senate blue. What if they're able

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Speaker 2: to do that and your father in law does not win,

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Speaker 2: is he still going to claim that this election was

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Speaker 2: not valid.

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Speaker 3: Look, I think that what you've heard from Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is if this is a fair election, which is something

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Speaker 3: that I'm working on day and night at the RNC.

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Speaker 3: It's the number one focus of the RNC right now.

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Speaker 3: We have a huge election integrity operation because, let's be honest,

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Speaker 3: half the country had a lot of questions, maybe more

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Speaker 3: about twenty twenty. Those questions were never answered. People were

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Speaker 3: just supposed to forget about him. And it's paramount that

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Speaker 3: in the United States of America trust our electoral process.

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Speaker 3: This is integral to who we are as a country,

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Speaker 3: and so we are trying to re establish that trust.

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Speaker 3: Every day, we are doing everything we possibly can making

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Speaker 3: sure that people are confident that no matter if you're

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Speaker 3: voting for a Republican, a Democrat, or a third party

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Speaker 3: candidate in this country, your vote matters and your vote counts.

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Speaker 3: And unfortunately, we've gotten a lot of pushback from Democrat

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Speaker 3: run states, and it's been very challenging to get transparency

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Speaker 3: in an issue where we really need transparency. But I

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Speaker 3: believe that what we are doing right now at the

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Speaker 3: RNC is going to further the notion that we do

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Speaker 3: indeed have free, fair and transparent elections. And so I

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Speaker 3: think Donald Trump saying if this is a free election

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Speaker 3: and a fair election and there's no funny business here

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Speaker 3: is a perfectly legitimate thing to say, because again, you

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Speaker 3: go ask half the country, they don't feel like everything

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Speaker 3: was completely fair in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: All right, Laura Trump, appreciate you joining us here on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio. The co chair of the rn C,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much. And of course, for those that

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Speaker 2: do still have questions about the results of twenty twenty,

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden did win the election, and no court found

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Speaker 2: that there was anything actually wrong with the democratic process

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Speaker 2: in the last election cycle. For quick reaction now to

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Speaker 2: our conversation with Larai, turned back to Bloomberg Politics contributor

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Speaker 2: Genie Shanzeno, of course, also of Iona University. Genie, just

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Speaker 2: in our final moments, I would love your reaction to

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Speaker 2: what we just heard from co Chair Trump there, especially

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Speaker 2: this notion that they're working toward free and fair elections.

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Speaker 2: We have no indication at this point, correct that they

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Speaker 2: won't be free and fair.

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Speaker 5: Uh, we don't.

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Speaker 6: And of course, you know, just a few hours ago

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Speaker 6: on Doctor Phil Donald Trump said, quote, I won the

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Speaker 6: election against Biden, and the reality is he lost by

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Speaker 6: over seven million votes.

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Speaker 5: That has been well established.

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Speaker 6: There has been no evidence found in a number of

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Speaker 6: court cases that there was any stolen votes in that election. So,

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Speaker 6: you know, it is this kind of thing. Yes, we

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Speaker 6: do need a free and fair election. We had one

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Speaker 6: in twenty twenty and he lost. So it's that kind

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Speaker 6: of thing that we have to, you know, just consider it.

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Speaker 6: And I would also say, very very interesting to hear

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Speaker 6: her talking about the small dollar donors. As you look

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Speaker 6: at percentage of what they have fundraised, Donald Trump is

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Speaker 6: around thirty one percent and Harris is around forty one percent,

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Speaker 6: so there is a gap there, but I agree with

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Speaker 6: her that is a critical number to be watching. Are

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Speaker 6: those small dollar donors that they are taking it.

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Speaker 7: Well?

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Speaker 2: And the other thing to consider here is not just

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Speaker 2: whether or not the Trump and the RNC have the

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Speaker 2: ability to keep tapping that base, but whether Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: still can we have a minute left Genie. She obviously

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Speaker 2: has seen a frenetic pace of fundraising and she's enjoyed

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Speaker 2: that since launching her candidacy, but is that really sustainable?

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Speaker 2: Are these people who are likely to give to her

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Speaker 2: more than once?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, she has done very well. The wind

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Speaker 6: has been at her back. Certainly, they are going to

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Speaker 6: try as hard as they can to keep it up.

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Speaker 6: And I think it's noteworthy that Laura Trump was talking

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Speaker 6: about Silicon Valley. They have been supportive of Trump, but

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Speaker 6: unlike with Biden, they have also been supportive of Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 6: Of course herself from California, so that is also an

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Speaker 6: area to be watching. How much is the split from

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Speaker 6: Silicon Valley between a Trump and a Harris. But she's

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Speaker 6: going to try to keep up this pace but it

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Speaker 6: is been a stunning pace that over happened at over

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Speaker 6: five hundred million dollars at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, incredible to see how quickly the money race and

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Speaker 2: the race overall has changed. As we just heard from

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Speaker 2: the R and C coachair herself, Laura Trump talking about

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Speaker 2: tightening margins in Pennsylvania having to invest Moore in her

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Speaker 2: home state of North Carolina as well.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and the

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Speaker 1: nroyd Outo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 1: station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much. I'm Kailee Lynes with a look

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Speaker 2: at the campaign track. As we've told you, Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: and Tim Walls begin today a two day bus tour

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Speaker 2: of Georgia, targeting specifically rural areas of the states. The

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Speaker 2: strategy here or this state in particular. The strategy may

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Speaker 2: be trying to drive out voters in these areas that

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Speaker 2: they don't necessarily think they could win, but in where

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Speaker 2: they could potentially reduce the margins, take their total vote

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Speaker 2: counts statewide a bit higher and potentially get the sixteen

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Speaker 2: Electoral College votes that come with it. So for more

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Speaker 2: on this strategy, our political panel is with me Genie Shanzano,

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Speaker 2: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of

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Speaker 2: the Presidency and Congress and more a Gillespie founder and

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Speaker 2: principle at Blues Jack Strategies are Republican and Democratic panelists today, respectively. Genie,

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Speaker 2: first to you just on this notion that they aren't going,

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Speaker 2: although they will be in Savannah for a rally tomorrow

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Speaker 2: to wrap this thing up, They're not necessarily targeting the cities,

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Speaker 2: the urban areas in which the highest concentration usually of

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Speaker 2: Democratic voters is on this tour. They're going instead to

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Speaker 2: areas that you wouldn't necessarily think they stand a chance

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Speaker 2: of winning. Is this a winning strategy though, try to

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Speaker 2: get the vote count at least higher in some of

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Speaker 2: these other parts of the state.

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Speaker 6: It is, And you know, I think it's a strategy

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Speaker 6: the Democrats have finally learned. Joe Biden was the first

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Speaker 6: Democrat to win Georgia in twenty eight years, and Rafael

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Speaker 6: Warnock John oss Off when they won the state as Democrats,

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Speaker 6: they showed how to do it, which was not act

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Speaker 6: as if Atlanta is Georgia. There are Democrats in those

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Speaker 6: rural areas, and to your point, while they may not

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Speaker 6: win them, they win the entire county. They can cut

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Speaker 6: down on the Republicans lead in those areas and make

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Speaker 6: up for votes in other parts of the state. So

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Speaker 6: that's what they're hoping to do. It's the same thing

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Speaker 6: they're trying to do in Pennsylvania as well. Philadelphia is

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Speaker 6: not Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 5: We've got to.

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Speaker 6: Hit those rural areas. So it's a very very smart strategy.

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Speaker 6: They're also going to force Donald Trump to keep going

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Speaker 6: back there because Georgia is something of a must win

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Speaker 6: for Republicans to reach two seventy.

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Speaker 2: Well, so, Laura, that's the other side of this coin, right,

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Speaker 2: the more places where Harrison Walls try to compete, the

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Speaker 2: more places they forced Trump advance to do the same.

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Speaker 7: Right, absolutely, And to that point, you know, Georgia being

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Speaker 7: so important for Republicans. It's also worth noting that the

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Speaker 7: you know, kind of beef that's been happening largely because

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Speaker 7: of Donald Trump lashing out against Governor Brian Kemp who

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Speaker 7: is pretty popular. That doesn't bode well for Donald Trump

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Speaker 7: and Jennie Vans. But I think that the relationship that

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Speaker 7: down ballot Republicans have with Governor Brian Kemp and their

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Speaker 7: favorable you know, respect for him, that they need to

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Speaker 7: focus on that. You know, Trump should be really trying

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Speaker 7: to repair that relationship because he needs Governor Kemp to

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Speaker 7: do well in Georgia. But I think what we are

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Speaker 7: seeing with Harrison Walls in this tactic that you know

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Speaker 7: referred to, it's meeting the voters where they are, understand

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Speaker 7: the long the big picture, and trying to meet them

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Speaker 7: where they are and not necessarily just focusing on the cities.

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Speaker 7: That's an important strategy and one that Republicans, you know,

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Speaker 7: shouldn't take for granted a state like Georgia that it

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Speaker 7: needs to be sought after.

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Speaker 2: Well, so should Republicans also then be spending time in

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Speaker 2: cities they don't necessarily think they can win outright, mora.

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Speaker 2: Does this not go both ways? Absolutely?

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Speaker 7: And you saw that already this year. You know, you

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Speaker 7: saw Donald Trump campaigning places where especially like in New

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Speaker 7: York and places out in California and places where you

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Speaker 7: know you wouldn't necessarily think that Republicans even sot a chance.

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Speaker 7: But he did it similar tactic where he was meeting

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Speaker 7: the voters where they were and seeing, you know, if

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Speaker 7: there was a group of voters to talk to you

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Speaker 7: that were receptive to his message or receptive to you know,

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Speaker 7: in a case of Trump, perceptive to you know, kind

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Speaker 7: of the fear that he is reminding them. That stands

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Speaker 7: to be real if at the time Biden Harris administration

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Speaker 7: were to win again. But now with Harry's the top

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Speaker 7: of the ticket, he's going to continue that messaging and

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Speaker 7: reminding folks who maybe aren't doing so well in this

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Speaker 7: current economy and are worried about their safety and security.

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Speaker 7: He can reach voters in urban areas and talk about

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Speaker 7: safety and security. You know. I think that's a message

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Speaker 7: that Republicans again as a party, will continue to echo.

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Speaker 8: Well.

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Speaker 2: And I want to focus more on the state of Georgia,

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Speaker 2: specifically for a moment longer gene specifically the election rules

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Speaker 2: that will govern Georgia come November when the votes are

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Speaker 2: actually being counted. Earlier this month, the Georgia State Election

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Speaker 2: Board voted to make it easier for county officials to

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Speaker 2: delay or refuse the certification of election results. This is,

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Speaker 2: of course, four years after twenty twenty, in which the

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Speaker 2: twelve thousand vote margin was something of an issue for

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. It raised the of course infamous phone call

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Speaker 2: that's where the beef with Georgia Republican leadership, including Brian

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Speaker 2: Kemp that more was referencing did come from. How concerned

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Speaker 2: should we be about these new rules in Georgia and

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Speaker 2: what they mean ultimately for us understanding who actually actually

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Speaker 2: won the state in November.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm so glad you raised this because i think

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Speaker 6: for as much as we talk about what Harris and

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Speaker 6: Trump and Vance and Waltz are doing out on the

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Speaker 6: campaign trail, the real action is going on at the

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Speaker 6: state and local level in these boards, you know, with

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Speaker 6: these election administrators. And we've already heard Donald Trump repeatedly

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Speaker 6: laying the groundwork that if he doesn't win this election outright,

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Speaker 6: something was amiss. And you see Democrats now taking this

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Speaker 6: change that you mentioned with this board in Georgia to

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Speaker 6: court to try to stop this change in the way

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Speaker 6: that these votes are certified. This is very important and

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Speaker 6: we're seeing it in all of these swing states, or

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Speaker 6: many of them, where these fights are ongoing, and of

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Speaker 6: course we also know that we're going to have a

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Speaker 6: lot of election of servers on the ground an election day,

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Speaker 6: and all of this could mean that come election day

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Speaker 6: and election night, when we wake up the next morning

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Speaker 6: or maybe don't go to sleep at all, we may

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Speaker 6: not know who won because so much of this may

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Speaker 6: be thought out in a county and state by state

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Speaker 6: basis where these elections are obviously close, and where we

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Speaker 6: have rules changing unclear, and really you have a lot

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Speaker 6: of power given to local election administrators in this case

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Speaker 6: in Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Mara does this risk being a strategy that backfires for Republicans?

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Speaker 2: For Donald Trump, who already is questioning whether he'll accept

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Speaker 2: the election of results if he doesn't think it's fair.

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Speaker 2: Is that something that could act as a deterrent for

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Speaker 2: his supporters to go out and actually vote if they

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Speaker 2: aren't necessarily sure that they can count on the results.

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Speaker 7: I mean, if you're you know, a kid, and you're

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Speaker 7: playing a game with like, you know, playing against your friend,

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Speaker 7: and they're constantly saying you're cheating, You're cheating, I really.

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Speaker 4: Want, I really want.

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Speaker 7: That gets old after a while, and honestly, it's just

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Speaker 7: it's annoying, and I think at some point voters are

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Speaker 7: just going to be very turned off by the fact

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Speaker 7: that he's constantly before the election has even happened, he's

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Speaker 7: already is pointed out, he's already saying that unless I win,

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Speaker 7: or if I don't win, something somebody cheated. So what

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Speaker 7: does that mean that it's only if he wins that

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Speaker 7: things are great and our system is perfect. That doesn't

440
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Speaker 7: I mean, if you're really thinking about this rationally, that's

441
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 7: a terrible message to send out to the voters that

442
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 7: their vote doesn't matter unless he wins. That's ridiculous and

443
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 7: that's not how our system should ever work. I do

444
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 7: agree that I think that this race is going to

445
00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,640
Speaker 7: be very very close, especially in neighboring states like North Carolina,

446
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,360
Speaker 7: to be very very close. That the margin is very

447
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 7: small there, and it has been for a number of

448
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 7: years for the presidential and so this is going to

449
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 7: be one of those times where we have to rise

450
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 7: above the fray of what Donald Trump is doing and

451
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 7: really hope that we are, you know, a nation that

452
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 7: can rise above juvenile remarks as his. It's concerning to

453
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 7: me that it will backfire on down ballot races, because

454
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 7: people will be so disenfranchised to even engage that they

455
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 7: won't remember that the down ballot impact is really important.

456
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,280
Speaker 7: To vote for your representatives and your senators and your

457
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 7: local school boards. That's really important.

458
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,640
Speaker 2: Well, Mori, I'm glad you brought up North Carolina because, Genie,

459
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 2: after last week while we were in Chicago, we saw

460
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:25,440
Speaker 2: the crystal Ball Sabadoe's Crystal Ball move North Carolina into

461
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,439
Speaker 2: the toss up column. We now have just seen Cook's

462
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 2: Cook Political Report do the same North Carolina to toss up.

463
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: What does that mean for how both campaigns need to

464
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,720
Speaker 2: consider that state? In particular, knowing that the governor of

465
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 2: North Carolina, Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was once on Harris's

466
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: short list, he could potentially be mobilized in this state.

467
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 2: What does Harris need to do and how do you

468
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: expect Trump to try to counter her?

469
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 6: Yeah, and at the DNC, we saw the final speaker

470
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,000
Speaker 6: before Kamala Harris came out was none other than Roy

471
00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 6: Cooper and that was not by accident. And he ended

472
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 6: his speech by a shout out to the seven swing states.

473
00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 6: So Democrats know you mentioned that this had moved over

474
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 6: in another forecasting model and now it is moved over

475
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 6: and cook and it means that Democrats have a chance

476
00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 6: there that they may not have had a month ago.

477
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 6: And that means that once again, this is going to

478
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 6: come down to money and time and organization. And Democrats

479
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 6: have the benefit of having a very popular governor, Roy

480
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 6: Cooper at the top of that state, and of course

481
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 6: a rather controversial and unpopular Republican vying to be governor,

482
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:45,080
Speaker 6: so that may dampen turnout amongst Republicans or get more

483
00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 6: Democrats out. So, you know, this was a very fascinating

484
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 6: turn of events because there was a time not that

485
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,359
Speaker 6: long ago, like Republicans thought they had North Carolina in

486
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,440
Speaker 6: the bag, so to speak, not so much anymore, which

487
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,879
Speaker 6: means more money and more time for Republicans in a

488
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 6: state they would like to have tied up and moved

489
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 6: on to other more important states.

490
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: Well, it raises the question of whether Republicans Donald Trump

491
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: specifically is going to have the kind of time and

492
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: resources to dedicate to each one of these states. Mora,

493
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:18,719
Speaker 2: he is losing the fundraising game to Kamala Harris, at

494
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 2: least at this point it's Harris that has the cash advantage.

495
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 2: How does that need to change how his campaign thinks

496
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 2: about targeting these states if they aren't necessarily going to

497
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 2: have the same kind of dollars to spend that the

498
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 2: opponent will.

499
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,479
Speaker 7: Right, and you mentioned earlier that Donald Trump was out

500
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 7: there on the campaign trail that he has moved. You know,

501
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 7: he's doing these rallies. But the problem is that during

502
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 7: these rallies he espouses the things about election and the

503
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:45,280
Speaker 7: big lie and things of that nature, and spewing off

504
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 7: things that you know, it would take forever just a

505
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 7: fact check everything he says, and that we have seen

506
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 7: in North Carolina when the alt right policies come through

507
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,399
Speaker 7: is when Democrats actually end up doing better. So you

508
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 7: have his candidate Robinson has said, you know, basically anyone

509
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 7: who advocated for birth control was a witch. You know,

510
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 7: he says outlandish things, but we saw Ry Cooper was

511
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 7: elected because largely of a alt right bill that got

512
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 7: put in place before his election. So you know, it's

513
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 7: it's yes, it's important that Trump is out there on

514
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 7: the campaign trail, but it's not helpful to downballot Republicans

515
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 7: if he is espousing conspiracy theories and outlandish and you know,

516
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 7: again derogatory things towards other people. It just isn't helpful

517
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 7: to their messaging on the economy and safety and security

518
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 7: because he can't say on a message. So, you know,

519
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 7: North Carolina being a flip toss up state makes complete

520
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 7: sense to me given what they have and Robinson, but

521
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 7: also the super school superintendent, state Superintendent Morrison. So it's

522
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 7: just that's a problem as well or more. I think

523
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:44,919
Speaker 7: your name is.

524
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, Mara A. Gillespie, Bluestack Strategies and Bloomberg

525
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 2: Politics contributor Jeanie shan Zano our political panel today. Thank

526
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 2: you so much.

527
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast, just

528
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo car Play and

529
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 1: then Proud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on

530
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

531
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:10,480
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

532
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 2: Welcome back, I am Kayley Lines here on Bloomberg TV

533
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 2: and Radio, as we cover the beginning of the bus

534
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: tour of Georgia for the Democratic ticket Kamala Harris and

535
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: Tim Walls, targeting specifically southern rural areas of this critical

536
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: swing state. It's ahead of a rally they will hold

537
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 2: in Savannah tomorrow, And of course it coincides with recent

538
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: polls that Joe Harris is doing better than Joe Biden

539
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 2: was in Georgia before he left the race in July.

540
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 2: The latest New York Times Siena poll finding Trump up

541
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 2: by four points, but that is within the margin of error.

542
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:45,879
Speaker 2: They're trying to make a difference in the Sunbelt, it

543
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,479
Speaker 2: seems so for more. Let's turn to someone who has

544
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 2: been spending a lot of time on the campaign trail lately.

545
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Riley Griffin is here with me in studio. So, Riley,

546
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 2: I know you've been with Donald Trump this week. I

547
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 2: do want to just begin, though, with what the Democratic

548
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 2: ticket is doing. The idea that they're devoting too full

549
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 2: days and resources to Georgia, a state that seems like

550
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 2: it was Donald Trump's to lose just five weeks ago.

551
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 2: What is that signal about the odds they think they

552
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: have down south?

553
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 9: They certainly think Georgia is at play. This two day

554
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 9: bus tour, which will weave through rural communities and land

555
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 9: in Savannah, as you mentioned, is a sign that this

556
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 9: is a state they think they have the potential to win.

557
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:26,440
Speaker 9: And ironically, you know Kamala Harris is campaigning there this week.

558
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 9: As you mentioned, Trump is currently up in the pools

559
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 9: in Georgia. Trump is in Michigan, where Kamala is perceived

560
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 9: to have an edge, So they are flip flopping there

561
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 9: in each other's a potential battleground state.

562
00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: Well, and I know you were with Trump in Michigan

563
00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 2: earlier this week where he was focusing specifically on foreign policy,

564
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 2: the Afghanistan withdrawal, which of course we're marking three years

565
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:54,360
Speaker 2: since this week, blaming Harris effectively for how that went.

566
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: Interesting to take a foreign policy message to Michigan.

567
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, Well, notably, he was speaking before a crowd of

568
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 9: National Guard members. It was the National Guard Association's annual meeting,

569
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,680
Speaker 9: so he had a crowd of troops and this speech

570
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 9: resonated with them. We saw a lot of people in

571
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:15,520
Speaker 9: the crowd cheering, standing, laughing, and that message from about

572
00:28:15,560 --> 00:28:19,439
Speaker 9: Afghanistan that he projected onto Harris extended to other foreign

573
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:23,439
Speaker 9: policy matters. He talked about a perceived US weakness in

574
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,879
Speaker 9: the rest of the world. He talked about foreign policy

575
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,480
Speaker 9: with China. He went so far as to associate the

576
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 9: withdrawal from Afghanistan with October seventh in Israel, which is

577
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 9: a big leap, but one that resonated with the crowd.

578
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's something I've been asking a lot of Middle

579
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: East experts about this week, whether there is some blame

580
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 2: that should be cast on that withdraw. It seems to

581
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 2: get mixed reviews. A lot of people have indicated that

582
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: these things are very separate, but it's still a good point.

583
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 2: And of course Jade Vance himself is going to be

584
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 2: in a number of other swing states today, the other

585
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,239
Speaker 2: parts of the Blue rall Pennsylvania and then later on

586
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: was Wsconsin. This is a pretty frenetic pace of campaigning

587
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: we're starting to see from the Republican ticket after they

588
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: were well. Of course Vans hasn't always been on it,

589
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 2: but Donald Trump himself wasn't out and about on this

590
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 2: many weekdays during the campaign just a month ago.

591
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,719
Speaker 9: You can see that they are responding to the momentum

592
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 9: of the Harris Walls campaign in the wake of the

593
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 9: DNC and certainly in anticipation of the closely watched debate

594
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 9: that is forthcoming on September tenth, So a lot of

595
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 9: momentum to build. There's a really short runway to election day,

596
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 9: but not just election Day. Early ballots will start to

597
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 9: be cast in coming weeks. So the game has started

598
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 9: today and they are moving. You mentioned that Trump is

599
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 9: in Michigan. You will also have a event in Potterville, Michigan,

600
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 9: a very small town of three thousand people, this coming Thursday.

601
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 9: And so the rural vote is at play, the suburban

602
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 9: vote is at play, the youth vote is at play,

603
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 9: and specifically in these seven swing states, they are making

604
00:29:57,480 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 9: their mark.

605
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: Well, just because you brought up the youth vote and

606
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 2: I might consider myself a youth in this area, though

607
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 2: I think Taylor Swift probably transcends generations. Swifties for Kamala

608
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 2: has begun without Taylor Swift, though this isn't Taylor leading

609
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 2: the charge, but Swifties are back in Harrisa.

610
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 9: Yes, last night we saw the first ever event for

611
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 9: Swifties for Kamala. The campaign manager is actually someone who

612
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 9: formerly ran John Fetterman's campaign in Pennsylvania. So these young

613
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 9: digital strategists are seizing the swift momentum despite the fact

614
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 9: that she didn't come out at the DNC like many

615
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 9: of us hoped, and Trump himself is doing that too.

616
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 9: He posted a user generated excuse me ai generated picture

617
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 9: of Taylor Swift backing him. So both parties would no

618
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 9: doubt love that support were she one day to formally

619
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 9: make a commitment to one or the other. But swifties

620
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 9: right now are coming out on their own, and Elizabeth

621
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 9: Warren was on that call, So you're seeing Democrats join in.

622
00:30:58,560 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 2: Is Elizabeth Warren a swifty?

623
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,479
Speaker 9: She identified as a swifty? Everybody on the call had

624
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 9: to name their favorite song and mark you was on

625
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 9: the call, so you saw a lot of Dems coming

626
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 9: and letting the people know which Swift song was theirs.

627
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: Which one was Elizabeth Warrence, Oh.

628
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 4: I can't remember.

629
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 9: You're testing me? Which one is yours?

630
00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,959
Speaker 2: All too well? Ten minute version? Obviously that is the

631
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: only right answer for anyone considering. But it does speak

632
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: to this point that she has been able to do

633
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: something with social media with her campaign that we weren't

634
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 2: necessarily seeing with Joe Biden. He raised the debate that's

635
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: going to happen in a couple weeks it's on September tenth.

636
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 2: That it does raise the question of how much of

637
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 2: that is going to be the people who will watch

638
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: it live versus the moments that could go viral that

639
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 2: will be recirculated on TikTok or wherever social platform people

640
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 2: find themselves in the aftermath.

641
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 9: Ideally, either candidate wants to reach both the audience that

642
00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 9: is tuning into cable news and the audience that is

643
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 9: finding these clippable moments on TikTok, And we saw at

644
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 9: the DNC two hundred influencers get credentials to come and

645
00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 9: snap those little moments. And it's in fact something that

646
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 9: the Harris Walls campaign has come under a little bit

647
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 9: of criticism from because they haven't done big scale press interviews.

648
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 9: But we actually get one of those this Thursday on

649
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 9: CNN with Dana Bash. Both Vice President Harris and Governor

650
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 9: Tim Walls will be joining CNN for that first kind

651
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 9: of reveal, so another highly watched moment before the debate.

652
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 2: And of course that interview being taped in Georgia where

653
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 2: the ticket is today. Bloomberg's Riley Griffin, thank you so

654
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 2: much covering the campaign trail for us as we get

655
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: closer and closer to that vote in November, appreciate it.

656
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 2: And of course, as we get closer to that vote

657
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 2: and talk more about these candidates, it is worth pointing

658
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 2: out that one of the candidates is still facing some

659
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: legal difficulty, and there was a development in that regard

660
00:32:41,600 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: for Donald Trump. Yesterday he was hit with a new

661
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: superseding indictment for Special Counsel Jacksmith in the twenty twenty

662
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: election interference case here in Washington. It still charges him

663
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 2: with the same four crimes. He still is the sole defendant,

664
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: and yet it removes some things that could have been

665
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: classified as a official acts. In the aftermath of the

666
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: Supreme Court's decision in July that found Donald Trump is

667
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 2: at least partially immune from official acts taken as president.

668
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:11,080
Speaker 2: I spoke more about this new indictment last night with

669
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 2: Nick Ackerman, former Watergate prosecutor, and this is how he

670
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: explained what's really different here.

671
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 10: What the government has done here is, rather than take

672
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 10: the initial indictment and mark it up before the judge,

673
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:28,280
Speaker 10: because Judge Chutkin has to decide which acts that are

674
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 10: charged in here were official acts or which were unofficial acts.

675
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 10: Official acts would particularly be immuned. So what the government

676
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 10: has done is they've basically redone the indictment, taken out

677
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 10: that entire section on the Department of Justice, and that

678
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 10: Jeffrey Clark would be made the attorney general because he

679
00:33:49,400 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 10: was going to send a phony letter to the various

680
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 10: state legislatures saying that there was fraud in the election

681
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 10: when there was no such fraud. But what they've done

682
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 10: is they've alleged everything else in terms of acts that

683
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 10: were not official.

684
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:07,959
Speaker 2: That was Nick Ackerman last night, and we turned now

685
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 2: to another legal expert. Dave ahren Berg is with me.

686
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: He is the state attorney in Palm Beach County. Welcome

687
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 2: back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Dave. It's been a while.

688
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 2: We weren't necessarily thinking that there would be something new

689
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:23,000
Speaker 2: in Trump legal world necessarily yesterday, but this did drop

690
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: in our lapse, And I think the question all of

691
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: us had immediately is what really does this change about

692
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 2: the likelihood that Donald Trump could actually be found guilty

693
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: or innocent of these crimes, Whether or not it goes

694
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 2: to trial before at the election, does that all remain

695
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 2: the same even if it does try to bring this

696
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 2: prosecution forward in someday, does it not necessarily accelerate the

697
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 2: way in which it does.

698
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,879
Speaker 11: Bailey, good to be back with you. This means that

699
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 11: the cases are going forward, but they're not going to

700
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 11: happen before the election. There will be no trial of

701
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 11: Donald Trump before at the election, except there could be

702
00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 11: a mini trial in Washington, DC in the election interference case.

703
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 11: It is possible that Jack Smith pushes for this open

704
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 11: this hearing where Mike Pence testifies and you find out

705
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 11: more details about Trump's involvement before and after January sixth,

706
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 11: whether they were official acts or unofficial acts. It would

707
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 11: be up to Judge Chukin. There have been reports recently

708
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 11: that Jack Smith and the Department of Justice did not

709
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 11: want to go forward with the mini trial, but we

710
00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,359
Speaker 11: haven't heard anything from Jack Smith yet. That's still a possibility.

711
00:35:28,400 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 11: But even though these filings took place, they do not

712
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 11: mean that these cases are going to be heard before

713
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 11: the election. They will be happening after the election. It

714
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,640
Speaker 11: just means that if Trump loses the election, it will

715
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 11: be game on for him in court.

716
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 2: Well, just because you raise the former vice president, Mike Pence, Dave,

717
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: I do wonder what you think about the fact that

718
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 2: he is still included in this indictment for being vice

719
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 2: president communications that the president was having with his vice

720
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 2: president at the time, the vice president, of course, having

721
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,600
Speaker 2: that ceremony in the certification of the election is that

722
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:05,359
Speaker 2: actually something that could be damaging to Jack Smith's case.

723
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: The fact that that was not removed from this new

724
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 2: superseding indictment.

725
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 11: Well, jack Smith decided to go right up to the

726
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 11: line because that was a gray area. The Supreme Court said, yeah,

727
00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 11: we're going to give it a presumption of immunity because

728
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 11: talking to your vice president is an official act. On

729
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 11: the other hand, if Mike Pence is acting as the

730
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 11: President of the Senate, then it doesn't mean that it's

731
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 11: an official act. It may not be an official act. Plus,

732
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 11: Trump allegedly was acting as an office seeker, not an

733
00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 11: office holder, someone who was trying to overturn the election,

734
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 11: and trying to convince Mike Pence as the president of

735
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 11: the Senate, not as the vice president, to throw out

736
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 11: the ballot. So I see why Jack Smith did what

737
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 11: he did. I think he's right to do it. But

738
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 11: it shows you that Jack Smith decided to err on

739
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 11: the side of moving forward with the prosecution. I'm prosecuting Trump,

740
00:36:54,560 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 11: rather than deferring to the Supreme Court's broad immunity decision

741
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 11: and saying we're going to take steps back. Now, he's

742
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 11: going right up to that line.

743
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 4: I think it's a good move.

744
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 12: Well.

745
00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 2: On the subject of the Supreme Court's amenity decision, we

746
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 2: got a bit more on that from one of the justices,

747
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: who of course dissented. Katanji Brown Jackson sat for an

748
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 2: interview on CBS and was talking about this case, and

749
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 2: she basically just kind of talked about her concerns regarding immunity.

750
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 2: Take a listen to what she said, Dave, and I'll

751
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 2: have more for you.

752
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 12: I was concerned about a system that appeared to provide

753
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 12: immunity for one individual under one set of circumstances, when

754
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 12: we have a criminal justice system that had ordinarily treated

755
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 12: everyone the same. I think there are legal issues that

756
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 12: arise out of the political process, and so the Supreme

757
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:56,760
Speaker 12: Court has to be prepared to respond if that should

758
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 12: be necessary.

759
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 2: And I wondered, if you ultimately think this question is

760
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: coming back to Justice Ktanji Brown Jackson and her other

761
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 2: colleagues on the Court, is that ultimately where this goes.

762
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:12,240
Speaker 2: Could we see once again Trump appealing this new indictment

763
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 2: and the Court being put back in the position where

764
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 2: it has to delineate what is an official and unofficial

765
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 2: action in a way that it did not in its

766
00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: initial ruling in July.

767
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,479
Speaker 11: This is definitely heading back to the Supreme Court because

768
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court's decision was broad, but it was also vague,

769
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 11: it was confusing, and you have these standards that need

770
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 11: be fleshed out. So what's going to happen is that

771
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 11: Jack Smith refiled the indictment. He trimmed off the fat.

772
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 11: You know, they're not going to go after the communications

773
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 11: with the Department of Justice and Jeff Clark and the

774
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 11: attempts to remove the acting Attorney General, but everything else

775
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 11: is a goat. And then Trump is going to say, no,

776
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:51,479
Speaker 11: it should not be a go You shouldn't be able

777
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,360
Speaker 11: to prosecute me for talking to Mike Pence, for example.

778
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 11: It'll get appealed, it'll go all the way up to

779
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court, and they're going to have to give

780
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 11: more meat on the bones their decision. I thought the

781
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 11: decision that Justice Roberts put out was waiting on the

782
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 11: pailffs is being confusing. It was unprecedented. It gave the

783
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 11: executive branch way more power than ever before in our

784
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 11: country's history. So anything that provides a little more detail,

785
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,439
Speaker 11: a little more guidance, is a good thing. And yes,

786
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 11: it is headed back up to the Supreme Court at

787
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,040
Speaker 11: some point, which means more delays in this case.

788
00:39:24,719 --> 00:39:27,720
Speaker 2: Well, on the subject of delays in the cases relating

789
00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,440
Speaker 2: to former President Donald Trump, we of course saw the

790
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 2: case that's in your neck of the woods, Dave, the

791
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 2: Document's case in Florida, delayed, delayed, delayed, until ultimately it

792
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,319
Speaker 2: was outright dismissed earlier this summer by Judgejggling Cannon, who

793
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 2: of course was a Trump appointee. We did hear from

794
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 2: Jack Smith also this week in essentially trying to get

795
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:48,320
Speaker 2: that case to be revived and to move forward, filing

796
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 2: essentially an appeal that says, hey, I was constitutionally appointed.

797
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: That's obviously not what Judge Cannon found in this case.

798
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: Do you expect he will be successful? Will this be

799
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,440
Speaker 2: a case that is able to move forward? Word?

800
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 11: Yes, the Eleventh Circuit quarter appeal, a conservative circuit, will

801
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 11: overturn Judge can And I feel very confident in that

802
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 11: because Judge Canneth's ruling eyes in the face of all

803
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:16,880
Speaker 11: legal precedent. There have been other courts repeatedly that have

804
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:20,640
Speaker 11: allowed the Special Council to continue that. Now this is

805
00:40:20,680 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 11: the first time a judge has ever said that the

806
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 11: Special Council was unconstitutional because he has too much independence,

807
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 11: which ironically is the opposite of what Donald Trump has

808
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 11: been saying on the campaign trail, saying Jack Smith is

809
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,840
Speaker 11: just a tool for Merrick Garland and Joe Biden and

810
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 11: the politicization of the DOJ. It's the opposite argument that

811
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,759
Speaker 11: his lawyer's made in court. And in the end, Judge

812
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 11: can went along in a decision that I think certainly

813
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 11: will be reversed by the Eleventh Circuit. I then think

814
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 11: the Supreme Court may weigh in.

815
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 7: Now.

816
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:47,880
Speaker 11: I can't say what the Supreme Court is going to

817
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:52,960
Speaker 11: do because they seem to find new ways to bring

818
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 11: out extremist opinions, and so we'll see if they then

819
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 11: create new rules. But I think for sure she will

820
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 11: be over turned by the Eleventh Circuit. Then the question

821
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 11: is will she be removed from the case. Jacksmith did

822
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:07,880
Speaker 11: not ask for her to be removed from the case.

823
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:11,240
Speaker 11: I think it's unlikely, but the Eleventh.

824
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 4: Circuit could on it.

825
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 11: Some say enough, you have been reversed on this Special

826
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 11: Master in this case twice, and now you're reversed here.

827
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,760
Speaker 11: Let's find a new judge it's possible, but probably unlikely.

828
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 2: And what's the timeline for all of this to play out, Dave,

829
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: I'm guessing this also not likely to be something resolved

830
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: prior to November.

831
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 11: Yeah, Jacksonith seems to have taken this spot off the gas,

832
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 11: knowing that this is never going to be tried before

833
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 11: the election, and I think the Eleventh Circuit also realizes

834
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 11: that there's no urgency in having to do this. So

835
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 11: this will be months and then they'll come out with

836
00:41:43,719 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 11: a ruling. Then it will be appealed to the Supreme Court.

837
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 11: So the one thing that Trump is successful at is delay,

838
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 11: win or lose. The delays are going to happen, and

839
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 11: if he is elected president again, then it will pay

840
00:41:56,760 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 11: off for him because his new attorney general will certainly

841
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 11: drop every federal case against him. Who'll be left with

842
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:05,839
Speaker 11: the New York and the Georgia cases. But then it'll

843
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 11: be a constutional crisis as to what happens when you

844
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,759
Speaker 11: have a president facing a criminal trial in Georgia in

845
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,360
Speaker 11: a state case while he's sitting in the White House.

846
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 4: We've never been down.

847
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 11: This road before.

848
00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's incredible to consider the possibility. Dave. Arenberg always

849
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 2: great to have you here on Balance of Power. Appreciate

850
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:26,880
Speaker 2: your time. Dave Aerberg, of course, is Palm Beach County's

851
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 2: state attorney.

852
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

853
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

854
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: and then royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

855
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,280
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

856
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

857
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 2: We've also been watching geopolitics this week too, including the

858
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 2: visit to China by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

859
00:42:56,560 --> 00:42:59,800
Speaker 2: He met today with officials, including the Chinese Foreign Minister,

860
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 2: and we've got a readout from the White House about

861
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,319
Speaker 2: that meeting. They say the two sides held and this

862
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:10,240
Speaker 2: is a quote candid, substantive and constructive discussions, including Sullivan

863
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 2: raising concerns about trade and unfair trade policies and the

864
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:17,360
Speaker 2: importance of peace in the Taiwan Strait. The statement also

865
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 2: says that they discussed planning for a leader level call

866
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 2: in the coming weeks. So maybe we should be on

867
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 2: watch for Joe Biden and Hijinping to have a conversation.

868
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 2: We want to have more on this visit and what

869
00:43:28,840 --> 00:43:32,560
Speaker 2: tangible outcomes really we can't expect. Mary Lovely is joining

870
00:43:32,560 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 2: me now. She is senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute

871
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,959
Speaker 2: for International Economics. Welcome back to Bloomberg. Mary, Always great

872
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,919
Speaker 2: to have you. So we know that they discussed these

873
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: things that they've been discussing for some time. But even

874
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 2: the statement itself alludes to the notion that they just

875
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 2: are prioritizing the dialogue happening and maintaining communication. Is that

876
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 2: really all this visit is about.

877
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 8: Well, you know, I think the dialogue is important. It

878
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 8: has certainly changed. We've seen since the meeting in San

879
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:05,320
Speaker 8: Francisco last year between the two leaders, a real change

880
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 8: in China's approach, for example, to American multinationals operating in

881
00:44:09,719 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 8: the Chinese market. So it has produced some tangible changes.

882
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 8: And of course it's always good when the temperature is

883
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 8: a bit reduced and when we think that the leaders

884
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 8: are trying to solve problems. So I would say, yes,

885
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 8: this is important. We're seeing some movement. We've had important

886
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 8: dialogues between key US agencies and their counterparts in China.

887
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 8: We're seeing perhaps some movement on the fentanyl problem and

888
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 8: a lot of high level discussions around Taiwan where I

889
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 8: think everybody wants to avoid an unintended.

890
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 5: Conflict. So I think this is good news.

891
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 8: And it's good news also that they're talking about perhaps

892
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:57,240
Speaker 8: a leadership call before the election.

893
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 2: Well, of course the leaders will be speaking. It will

894
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 2: include one leader who has made himself effectively a lame duck.

895
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: Joe Biden will no longer be President of the United

896
00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: States come January. Mary, How does that change the nature

897
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: of these discussions. Is China going to be making any

898
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 2: commitments to an outgoing president.

899
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 8: No, I don't think China's going to be making any commitments,

900
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 8: but it's important because a lot of the work is

901
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 8: done under the presidential level, so it's done at the agencies,

902
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:32,440
Speaker 8: and I think this is important to continue those dialogues

903
00:45:32,480 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 8: and also to clarify issues. Now, obviously, we have two

904
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 8: candidates for president who hold very different views on China

905
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 8: are likely to pursue very different policies.

906
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 5: So the election is.

907
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 8: Going to have a big impact on US China relations.

908
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:52,040
Speaker 8: And you're right, Kayley, that President Sheijinping knows that and

909
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 8: will not make commitments.

910
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 5: But it's still an important meeting.

911
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 2: I think Mary, do you think She Jinping has a

912
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 2: preference in terms of the outcome of the US election,

913
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 2: knowing what Donald Trump is saying he'll do in regard

914
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:08,359
Speaker 2: to tariffs on Chinese goods specifically, though it is kind

915
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,239
Speaker 2: of a bipartisan thing these days to be hawkish on China.

916
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: Do you think China thinks there is a real difference here?

917
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 8: Well, I always say the last thing anybody wants to

918
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 8: do is to predict what's in Hi Jinping's minds, So

919
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 8: I won't say, but I will say that they do

920
00:46:25,040 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 8: understand that there is a difference, and President Trump sometimes

921
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 8: is viewed as someone that China might prefer because you know,

922
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 8: they cut a deal with him on the Phase one deal,

923
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:39,959
Speaker 8: and and in some sense that is viewed as something

924
00:46:40,000 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 8: they can work with. I would say that President Biden

925
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:48,760
Speaker 8: has been more effective in terms of restricting the flow

926
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 8: of technology to China and gain engage engaging our allies

927
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:59,919
Speaker 8: in terms of joining those sanctions, So there is some

928
00:47:00,160 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 8: possibility that they would prefer Trump administration. On the other hand,

929
00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 8: the Trump policies, at least from an economics perspective, are

930
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 8: widely viewed as deeply destabilizing, and the last thing China needs, which,

931
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 8: as widely reported with soft economy right now, is more

932
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 8: global instability. So I think they would look at a

933
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 8: continuation of the Biden policies in some sense through a

934
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 8: Harris administration as welcome as well. Well.

935
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: I'm glad you raised the technology export constraints that the

936
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 2: Biden administration has put in place, because of course we're

937
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,720
Speaker 2: all a waiting for after the bell today results from Nvidia,

938
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 2: this is a company that has been affected by the

939
00:47:45,160 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 2: export controls. There are restraints around the kind of chips,

940
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 2: the caliber of chips that they can sell in China.

941
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 2: How much tighter do you expect those constraints on critical

942
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 2: technology like semiconductors will get regardless of who the next

943
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 2: administration is. Is this an area in which especially the

944
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 2: companies who are making these things are going to have

945
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 2: to expect at some point they can't sell to China

946
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 2: at all?

947
00:48:07,480 --> 00:48:08,760
Speaker 5: I think that is correct.

948
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 8: I think every tech executive knows that this is uh,

949
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:13,760
Speaker 8: this is probably.

950
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 5: Going to be a no go area.

951
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 8: Interestingly, we've been doing new research, and you know the

952
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:23,879
Speaker 8: Trump administration, the Biden administration imposed export controls them through

953
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,600
Speaker 8: the Entity List, which restricts the types of things that

954
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 8: you can sell to Chinese firms.

955
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 4: There.

956
00:48:30,239 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 5: They use it about you know, as equally as often.

957
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 8: About about four hundred firms were listed by each so

958
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,399
Speaker 8: you know, this is not something new.

959
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 5: I think it's something.

960
00:48:41,800 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 8: That firms are going to have to have to deal with,

961
00:48:44,680 --> 00:48:47,759
Speaker 8: but I think it's also something that we, as you know,

962
00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 8: Americans more generally have to deal with because it has

963
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 8: side effects.

964
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,480
Speaker 5: It looks like it's a cheap way to.

965
00:48:54,760 --> 00:49:00,000
Speaker 8: Prevent technology technology flowing out or unwanted technology technology trans

966
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:00,840
Speaker 8: to China.

967
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 5: It's not on the.

968
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 8: Budget, but it obviously has costs for these firms. As

969
00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:09,400
Speaker 8: you noted, it affects their revenue and their stock price.

970
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,359
Speaker 8: And these are firms that rely on that revenue to

971
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 8: do the R and D that keeps the United States

972
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 8: at the forefront, So restricting their revenue in this way

973
00:49:19,640 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 8: is a very potentially dangerous aspect to this whole policy. Obviously,

974
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:27,840
Speaker 8: there's a lot of good reasons why we want to

975
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 8: restrict technology, but it's not the type of tool that

976
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 8: can be used without careful consideration of side effects.

977
00:49:36,280 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 5: Other side effects, of course.

978
00:49:37,680 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 8: Are that these companies in China will just go to

979
00:49:40,440 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 8: competitor firms and the more we use them, the less

980
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:47,000
Speaker 8: our allies are willing to go along with us, and

981
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 8: so those sales will just move from American firms to

982
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 8: foreign firms. And lastly, of course, we have greatly incentivized

983
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 8: Sheet and Ping's desire and the flow of funds to

984
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:03,640
Speaker 8: technology firms inside China for indigenous innovation. And as we've

985
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 8: always known, with dual use technology, there will be a ketchup.

986
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 8: The US is trying to stay more than one generation ahead,

987
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 8: but we are really fueling their ketchup process. So it's

988
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,800
Speaker 8: an important tool addressing important and imperative concerns for the

989
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,359
Speaker 8: United States, but it's something that has to be used

990
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 8: very carefully.

991
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 2: All right, Mary Lovely, it's always great to have you

992
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. Thank you so much for

993
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: joining us. Of course, coming to us from the Peterson Institute.

994
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see what kind of commentary around

995
00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:37,239
Speaker 2: China we do get from Nvidia when it reports after

996
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 2: the bell. I would point out that this stock, which

997
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 2: of course represents seven percent of the S and P

998
00:50:41,680 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 2: five hundred right now, is down about two point six

999
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 2: percent on the day.

1000
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast.

1001
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:54,279
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1002
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:56,960
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1003
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,120
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1004
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:01,880
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