WEBVTT - Trump Losing His Twitter Megaphone Would Be A Big Blow: SocialFlow CEO

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along

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<v Speaker 1>with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you interviews from ceo, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,

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<v Speaker 1>along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts,

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<v Speaker 1>and on Bloomberg dot com. Well, yesterday was a busy

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<v Speaker 1>day in Washington, to say the least, but it was

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<v Speaker 1>also a busy day for social media platforms. Twitter suspended

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<v Speaker 1>President Trump's Twitter feed for twelve hours, required deletion of

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<v Speaker 1>the offending tweets, and then threatened a band. Facebook suspended

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<v Speaker 1>the President's ability to post for twenty four hours, but

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<v Speaker 1>said nothing about a permanent band. To get the latest

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<v Speaker 1>on how the social media platforms are reacting to yesterday's news,

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<v Speaker 1>we welcome to Jim Anderson, CEO of Social Flow. Jim,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us here. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's some pretty dramatic moves there by Facebook and Twitter.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you make of it? Yeah, Paul, it is

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<v Speaker 1>dramatic moves. I mean, in many ways we're unprecedented territory.

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<v Speaker 1>I will say that a suspension is not yet a band.

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<v Speaker 1>But there there's an air of inevitability to this that

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen before, where you know, you've got a

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<v Speaker 1>situation where the president was inciting violence. You know that

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<v Speaker 1>that will be much discussed whether that was his intent

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<v Speaker 1>or not, but certainly that was the outcome. And the

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<v Speaker 1>social media platforms have always taken sort of refuge saying, hey,

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<v Speaker 1>we we are not in a position to suppress the

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<v Speaker 1>voice of a duly elected president. But now they you

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<v Speaker 1>saw Twitter sort of move from one policy to another,

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<v Speaker 1>say well, the threat of violence now has caused us

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<v Speaker 1>to use this in a different light, and that's what

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<v Speaker 1>led to the suspension. And so the real question in

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<v Speaker 1>my mind is, you know, President Trump needs to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of back down, and because Twitter said if you continue

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<v Speaker 1>to do this, we may ban your account permanently. And

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<v Speaker 1>when have we ever known President Sumps to back down

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<v Speaker 1>from something? Yeah, I mean, is this something that is

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<v Speaker 1>happening because he is the outgoing president at this point,

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<v Speaker 1>so there is less at stake. Yeah, Bonny, without a doubt.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, he's got what thirteen twelve states left in office.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's interesting, you know, outgoing presidents, or we'll call

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<v Speaker 1>them former presidents traditionally in the United States have had

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<v Speaker 1>sort of irrelevance. I mean, I don't mean that pejoratively.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, that's sort of the nature. You retire, you

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<v Speaker 1>become an elder statesman, You sort of after a while,

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<v Speaker 1>write a book, you open a library, and that's about

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<v Speaker 1>what you hear from former presidents. And I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>anybody expects that from President Trump. You know, he's even

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<v Speaker 1>you know, already teased the idea that he may run again.

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<v Speaker 1>So he may be a former president and a future candidate,

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<v Speaker 1>but once he is no longer president, and we're clearly

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<v Speaker 1>coming up on the point where he is no longer president,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he's very clearly going to be treated with

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<v Speaker 1>a different set of rules. And I think Twitter more

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<v Speaker 1>specifically has been quite quite a bit more aggressive than

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook and saying, look, we may just stand your entire account.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, I have a lot of folks on Twitter,

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<v Speaker 1>on social media have been calling for Facebook and Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>too permanently, been President Trump. And even Kara Swisher, one

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<v Speaker 1>of the more of the New York Times, one of

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<v Speaker 1>the more influential tech observers over the last couple of decades,

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<v Speaker 1>has done the same here. What are the expectations post

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<v Speaker 1>January twenty one or more of these social platforms might

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<v Speaker 1>just in fact ben President Trump. Yeah, I think so.

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<v Speaker 1>The first thing we need to do is we need

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<v Speaker 1>to separate Twitter from Facebook. They are obviously two different companies.

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<v Speaker 1>We tend to talk about them to theay what Twitter doing,

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<v Speaker 1>What's Facebook doing? But but remember, you know, Facebook is

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of twenty times larger or so than

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter in terms of market cap. I just checked this morning. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>and Facebook has got a lot more to fear from

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<v Speaker 1>regulation and antitrust and those kinds of things than than

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter does, just sort of simply from from the size

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<v Speaker 1>and scale of their operation. You know, they're both private companies,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's a case to be made that they can,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, sort of choose to operate the platforms in

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<v Speaker 1>whatever manner they see fit because it's private, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a private platform and private speech. Um, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think Twitter is definitely being more aggressive. You know, President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump has eighty nine million followers on Twitter. But to

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<v Speaker 1>the degree he's ever had a social media superpower, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not his ability to tweet. It's a need to get

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<v Speaker 1>the media to cover what he tweets, and so if

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<v Speaker 1>you take that megaphone away from him, which Twitter may

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<v Speaker 1>very well do, um, he's going to have a really

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<v Speaker 1>deep hill decline. Certainly, he's got many supporters. Seventy plus

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<v Speaker 1>million people voted for him. It's not that he will

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<v Speaker 1>become you know, irrelevant, but but you know, losing that

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<v Speaker 1>Twitter megaphone would be a very significant load to him.

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<v Speaker 1>Facebook similarly, he's got a large audience there, but he's

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<v Speaker 1>not nearly as prolific on Facebook, and that doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to drive the media narrative nearly as

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<v Speaker 1>much as what he's tweeted has been able to do.

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<v Speaker 1>What happens under a Biden presidency is Twitter as used?

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<v Speaker 1>Do people still gather there too, you know, incite each

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<v Speaker 1>other if you like. Well, the Twitter certainly will be used,

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<v Speaker 1>and people do and probably still will incite on on

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<v Speaker 1>on Twitter and do other things what you won't see

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<v Speaker 1>as President Biden, of course tweeting like President front then, right,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it's just a completely different, uh personality. President

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<v Speaker 1>He will be a user of social media, I'm quite certain,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least his staff will, but but in a

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<v Speaker 1>much less provocative way. Right, It's different kind of politicians.

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't suspect that we will be having many

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<v Speaker 1>conversations about what President Biden tweeted this morning like we

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<v Speaker 1>have with President Trump. And so it's it's just it's

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<v Speaker 1>sort of going to be a much more normal or

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<v Speaker 1>traditional lot. I guess i'll call it view of the

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<v Speaker 1>presidency and how they conduct, you know, briefings of the public.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Jim, thank you so much. Jim Anderson's always

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<v Speaker 1>a pleasure to speak with you. Jim Anderson's CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>a Social Flow and of course Bloomberg Media and other

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<v Speaker 1>parts of Bloomberg works with Social Flow. That's just a disclaimer, Yeah, Paul,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I've been pretty you know, ignorant of Twitter

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<v Speaker 1>over the last few days. I haven't really wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>see the back and forth. I mean some of them

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<v Speaker 1>are pretty graphic and and pretty nasty. Yeah, it really was.

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<v Speaker 1>And there is a call for regulation, but you bounce

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<v Speaker 1>that against the censorship issues, uh, And that's kind d

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<v Speaker 1>of the challenge out there in the marketplace and for

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<v Speaker 1>the regulators as well. Well. This week, among other things,

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<v Speaker 1>we had Impossible Foods deciding to cut the prices on

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<v Speaker 1>their foe meat or fake meat products by fift percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, so Impossible makes burger is essentially from a

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<v Speaker 1>magic ingredient that is essentially modified yeast. Time to bring

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<v Speaker 1>in Dennis Woodside, president of Impossible Foods, and Dennis, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining. It's been a busy day.

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<v Speaker 1>I know that we just had news breaking that you

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<v Speaker 1>now have an interim CFO as your previous gentleman went

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<v Speaker 1>to app Harvest to head up a harvests. So I'm

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<v Speaker 1>sure it's been a very busy few days for you.

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<v Speaker 1>But talk to us about why you decided to reduce

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<v Speaker 1>the price of your products by fiftcent at a time

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<v Speaker 1>when it must be difficult to do that. Yeah, thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for having me. So the price reduction is part of

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<v Speaker 1>an ongoing strategy to get down ultimately to the price

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<v Speaker 1>of of ground beef. So you have you have at

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<v Speaker 1>the very high end products like wandboo beef and like

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<v Speaker 1>nine bucks a pound. We're currently priced with this reduction,

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<v Speaker 1>closer to what you would pay for grass fed. But

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately we need to compete with the mass of the market,

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<v Speaker 1>which is which is buying what's called ground beef, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's even lower than where we are now. Uh, so

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<v Speaker 1>you you should expect continuing price reductions from us over

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<v Speaker 1>time as we get scale, and we can pass the

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<v Speaker 1>benefits of that that scale onto our restaurant partners and

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<v Speaker 1>onto consumers ultimately. Uh, Dennis, what's the elasticity there on

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<v Speaker 1>the price cuts for you? It seems in this market

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<v Speaker 1>that you've had pretty strong unit sales, perhaps strong enough

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<v Speaker 1>that you don't need to cut prices. Give us a

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<v Speaker 1>sense of how that dynamiccause working for you, guys. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you know the market isn't The elasticity is incredibly high.

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<v Speaker 1>The vast, vast majority of of consumers purchase beef in

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<v Speaker 1>the three to six dollar range, and we're we're just

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<v Speaker 1>outside that now. Uh. We expect, as I said, to

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<v Speaker 1>get down there over time as we continue to scale

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<v Speaker 1>our production. Uh. If you think about the economies of scale,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you you build a plan or you stand

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<v Speaker 1>up a supply chain. The more you put through that plant,

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<v Speaker 1>the more lines you can run, the more ships you

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<v Speaker 1>can run. Uh. You know, your fixed costs are just

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<v Speaker 1>amortized over over a larger revenue base. And and so

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<v Speaker 1>we've been able to as our as our productionist scale,

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<v Speaker 1>as our volume scale, We've been able to get those

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<v Speaker 1>economies over the last year. But we don't see that stopping.

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<v Speaker 1>We just see our footwork continue to continue to expand

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<v Speaker 1>and continue to pass that benefit onto onto our partners

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<v Speaker 1>and consumers. Now, you said just at the end of

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<v Speaker 1>last year that you're going to be doubling your R

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<v Speaker 1>and D team over the next twelve months. Important to

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<v Speaker 1>get into the Chinese market as well, to grow your

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<v Speaker 1>base and also keep competitors at bay, like beyond meat

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<v Speaker 1>and you know meat makers and other countries in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>You've also had seven fundraising rounds. Where are you in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of capital needs? We're we're actually quite quite good

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<v Speaker 1>right now. We raised a couple hundred million uh in

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<v Speaker 1>in May time frame, and then several million prior to

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<v Speaker 1>that um. But look, you know, the market that we're

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<v Speaker 1>going after is enormous. Our our mission is to replace

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<v Speaker 1>all animal based protein products and that is a literally

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<v Speaker 1>a one trillion pound market roughly four to over four

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<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars globally, and and we're competing now in a

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<v Speaker 1>relatively small part of it, which is primarily ground beef.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a sausage product as well, but primarily ground beef.

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<v Speaker 1>But we see opportunity in many other meat products. Um

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<v Speaker 1>and you know it's not it's not a surprise that uh,

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<v Speaker 1>ground steak, chicken, fish, all these are interesting to us

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<v Speaker 1>over time. For us to be competitive in those those markets,

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<v Speaker 1>we need to invest in R and D and create

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<v Speaker 1>the same kind of wow product that we did when

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<v Speaker 1>we launched The Impossible Burgher. Dennis talked to us about

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<v Speaker 1>kind of your distribution directed tumor versus restaurants. Where are

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<v Speaker 1>you now? You know, where do you want to be?

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<v Speaker 1>Where's the real growth? Talk us about, you know, kind

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<v Speaker 1>of your revenue story. Yeah, we're in over thirty thousand

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<v Speaker 1>restaurants in the US. We're in over seventeen thousand retail

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<v Speaker 1>doors and and that's up from like two hundred a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago. So we made a big move into retail

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<v Speaker 1>over the last year. But at the same time, we

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<v Speaker 1>have a limited products that we have to retail products

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<v Speaker 1>now most if you if you look at beef products,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, anybody's selling beefs to to a to a

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<v Speaker 1>retailer probably has ten to fifteen different skews. And we're

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<v Speaker 1>in the process of building a much broader portfolio to

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<v Speaker 1>go to to expand that retail presence. So it's still

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<v Speaker 1>even though we're we've we've got good presences, still pretty

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<v Speaker 1>early days. There's well over three thousand restaurants in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's just the U S which is less than

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<v Speaker 1>fiftent of all beef consumption. So it's very early days

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<v Speaker 1>for the industry. You know, most of our consumers are

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<v Speaker 1>are the vast majority, like of them are uh meat eaters.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh and and they're shifting a small portion today of

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<v Speaker 1>their meat um meat meat eating into plant based Over time,

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<v Speaker 1>that share is just going to grow and grow as

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<v Speaker 1>they see the benefits, the health benefits as well as

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<v Speaker 1>the environmental benefits of moving to a plant more of

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<v Speaker 1>a plant based meat UH diet Dennis and announcing this

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<v Speaker 1>price reduction, Yours Books person said that now the lowest

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<v Speaker 1>price for your burger product is six dollars and eight

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<v Speaker 1>cents per pound. How much of that is pure profit

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<v Speaker 1>and much of what people are buying is basically, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>helped by private equity funding. Uh So the economic unit

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<v Speaker 1>economics of the business are quite good actually, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the kind of the case where this is you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're selling at a loss. Um and like I said,

0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:53.000
<v Speaker 1>at the the the growth of the business has has

0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:56.320
<v Speaker 1>enabled us to get the scale uh in order to

0:11:56.520 --> 0:11:59.600
<v Speaker 1>in order to sell product at a at a reasonable margin,

0:11:59.760 --> 0:12:01.760
<v Speaker 1>but also reduced our prices. And you think about the

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:04.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, the inputs that we we have to the

0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:08.600
<v Speaker 1>product are our plants, and those plants are much lower

0:12:08.640 --> 0:12:12.520
<v Speaker 1>cost than than the animal because you don't have the

0:12:13.160 --> 0:12:16.600
<v Speaker 1>all of the um labor that goes into rating cows,

0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.440
<v Speaker 1>you don't have the transportation and so forth. So the

0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>unit economics are actually quite good, especially as you start

0:12:21.960 --> 0:12:23.959
<v Speaker 1>to get the scale. Hey, Dennis, thanks so much for

0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:27.600
<v Speaker 1>joining us. Really appreciate the update. Dennis Woodside, president of

0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Impossible Foods, based in Menlo Park, California, continuing to grow

0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:39.280
<v Speaker 1>that plant based food business. Well, there are many questions

0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:41.600
<v Speaker 1>that will need to be answered about what occurred in Washington,

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:46.480
<v Speaker 1>d C. Yesterday. Chief among them is security or lack

0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:50.080
<v Speaker 1>thereof that allowed the whole event to take place to

0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:52.200
<v Speaker 1>the scale at which it did, and we can maybe

0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:54.199
<v Speaker 1>begin to start answering some of the asking some of

0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:57.040
<v Speaker 1>those questions right now at Jordan Strauss, Managing director of

0:12:57.080 --> 0:13:00.439
<v Speaker 1>Business Intelligence and Operations for Cruell, which is a vision

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 1>of Duff and Phelps based in Philadelphia, Jordan. Thanks so

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.640
<v Speaker 1>much for joining us here. The images we saw of

0:13:07.679 --> 0:13:10.280
<v Speaker 1>the inability of the Capitol Police and the and the

0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 1>d C Police UH to secure the Capital grounds, and

0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 1>in fact it seemed at times some of the videos

0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.880
<v Speaker 1>suggest that they were letting them in and not even

0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:22.760
<v Speaker 1>trying to stop the folks that were coming into the Capitol.

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>What do you make of all that? Thanks Paul and

0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.200
<v Speaker 1>happy to be here. Look what we saw yesterday was

0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.679
<v Speaker 1>one of the darkest days in American history. This was predictable,

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 1>it was preventable, and it represents an almost total lack

0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:38.160
<v Speaker 1>of preparation. We should expect to see investigations about this

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:43.120
<v Speaker 1>for probably generations to come, and changes in the near future.

0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:44.800
<v Speaker 1>I will tell you talking to our clients all over

0:13:44.840 --> 0:13:47.839
<v Speaker 1>the world about contingency planning in the last twenty four hours.

0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 1>The big takeaway here is that there just didn't seem

0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.439
<v Speaker 1>to be any well what it's changed. Who's protecting the

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:58.640
<v Speaker 1>capital today? So, Nnie, the Capitol Police are a very small,

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.680
<v Speaker 1>but very elite unit that's a little bit unusual in

0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.760
<v Speaker 1>the American law enforcement inventory. Like the Supreme Court Police.

0:14:04.800 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 1>They're one of the only two law enforcement organizations that

0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:10.720
<v Speaker 1>don't that aren't part of the executive branch. They work

0:14:10.840 --> 0:14:14.160
<v Speaker 1>for the Congress. So in order to get extra help,

0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.719
<v Speaker 1>in order to plus up, they need to get additional

0:14:17.760 --> 0:14:22.440
<v Speaker 1>resources from executive branch agencies. So another branch of the government. Similarly,

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>the Metropolitan Police Department in Washington doesn't really have jurisdiction

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:27.840
<v Speaker 1>on the capital grounds because it's it's part of the

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:32.760
<v Speaker 1>federal the federal sovereign. So what's so frustrating about this?

0:14:33.160 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>And this was work I used to do along with

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:39.480
<v Speaker 1>many many others in government that we do now for clients.

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, the capital is a space that's very easy

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to protect in the sense that we do it at

0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>least every year for the State of the Union. And

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 1>there are these very complex, very well thought out plans

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.240
<v Speaker 1>that the Federal Interagency puts together towards things that are

0:14:54.240 --> 0:14:57.720
<v Speaker 1>called national Security Special Events and s s s the

0:14:57.800 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 1>highest tier of of of the stick security events, so

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>things like the UN General Assembly, a presidential inauguration, the

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.880
<v Speaker 1>State of the Union, sometimes the Super Bowl. Right, there's

0:15:07.920 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 1>a plan on the book that gets revisited every time

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.280
<v Speaker 1>there's a new one. And I know that there's been

0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>expensive planning going on for President of like Biden's inauguration

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 1>for at least the last couple of weeks. This is

0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 1>something we should be good at, we should be well

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.720
<v Speaker 1>practiced at, and we should be able to do in layers.

0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:28.440
<v Speaker 1>And given the threat environment that existed, the known threat

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:32.320
<v Speaker 1>environment that existed going into yesterday, the fact that that

0:15:32.480 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>didn't happen is just beyond a belief. Jordan, Can I

0:15:34.800 --> 0:15:38.280
<v Speaker 1>just jump in and ask who gives that command? Because

0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:40.200
<v Speaker 1>right now we just learned the Chad Wolf is no

0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 1>longer in position. He has resigned. He was the acting

0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:47.160
<v Speaker 1>Homeland Security director. Who who gives the orders and who

0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.280
<v Speaker 1>who will do it now in his absence? Sure, Vonny,

0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 1>that that's a great question. So for things like national

0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:56.400
<v Speaker 1>security special events, which this was not, the Department of

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Homeland Security through the Secret Service, is the lead coordinating agency.

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:04.160
<v Speaker 1>So you know, for a planned, coordinated deployment of people,

0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 1>like for the inauguration, it's usually going to be the

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Secret Service coordinating a lot of local law enforcement in

0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>the district Maryland, Virginia area, uh, and the entire sort

0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 1>of arsenal a federal law enforcement I understand that the

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 1>FBI and the hostage rescue team got there relatively quickly

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 1>that the Metropolitan Police Department around the perimeters of the

0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 1>capital is able to use what's called an iMac and

0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:29.680
<v Speaker 1>Emergency Management Assistance Compact to get two hundred troops from Virginia.

0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:32.360
<v Speaker 1>As to who does this now, there has to be

0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:36.560
<v Speaker 1>a cognisant official, be it the Attorney General, the FBI director,

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.640
<v Speaker 1>the Secret Service director, or others that agrees to send

0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.800
<v Speaker 1>their people in, or a National Guard deployment, which, although

0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:45.000
<v Speaker 1>it was delayed for reasons which I suspect, will be

0:16:45.000 --> 0:16:48.160
<v Speaker 1>investigated and will become clear uh in the coming weeks.

0:16:48.720 --> 0:16:52.720
<v Speaker 1>UM work closely with again the very elite but clearly

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:56.080
<v Speaker 1>overmatched and overwhelmed officer and Capital police in a situation

0:16:56.120 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 1>like this, Jordan, what do you say to the argument

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:04.160
<v Speaker 1>that perhaps a the less forceful defense of the Capitol

0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:08.600
<v Speaker 1>yesterday resulted in relatively fewer casualties than there might have

0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.240
<v Speaker 1>been had they taken a much stronger stance than in

0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 1>fact it was. You know, I think there are four fatalities,

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:16.040
<v Speaker 1>but it could have been so much worse. Is that

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:20.560
<v Speaker 1>a reasonable argument to make? I don't understand why the

0:17:20.600 --> 0:17:23.640
<v Speaker 1>capital was not locked down? Uh? You know, a forceful

0:17:23.720 --> 0:17:27.320
<v Speaker 1>response doesn't have to look like shooting people. It doesn't

0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:29.760
<v Speaker 1>have to look like mass arrests. If you think about

0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:31.560
<v Speaker 1>these sorts of things in advance, it might look like

0:17:32.119 --> 0:17:35.280
<v Speaker 1>just making sure that the Capitol building is well secured,

0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.159
<v Speaker 1>and it should be well secured, because there were a

0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:39.960
<v Speaker 1>ton of upgrades after the September eleventh attacks, after the

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 1>first Capitol Hill shooting, uh, and after the tragic shooting

0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:47.600
<v Speaker 1>representatives police at a softball game making it harder to

0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:51.480
<v Speaker 1>penetrate and then pushing layers of security out. It's not

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>clear why those layers of security failed and why they

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:58.959
<v Speaker 1>weren't stop leading into the capital. Yeah. I mean, we're

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 1>gonna have to fill some of these open positions, or

0:18:00.800 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 1>at least designate somebody to take on their responsibilities for

0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.000
<v Speaker 1>the next two weeks. Jordan's thank you so much for

0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 1>giving us those explanations. It is very important to understand

0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:12.720
<v Speaker 1>the ins and outs of what actually happens. Jordan, of course,

0:18:13.880 --> 0:18:16.720
<v Speaker 1>managing director at a crull, former White House and a

0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Sea official and director of Preparedness in response for the

0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:21.359
<v Speaker 1>National Security Division of the U s d O j

0:18:21.720 --> 0:18:24.600
<v Speaker 1>and Jordan's strouss in Philly which also is you know,

0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.879
<v Speaker 1>very very divided right now Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, I should say,

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 1>with the final hurdle in counting electoral College votes last evening,

0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:34.960
<v Speaker 1>I do want to mention as well that the incoming

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:38.000
<v Speaker 1>majority leader, Chuck Schumer has now called for the removal

0:18:38.160 --> 0:18:43.639
<v Speaker 1>of President Trump. Well, it is time to look cross

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>asset because as the NASTAG rises above at two percent,

0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:49.120
<v Speaker 1>we also have the tenure yield almost at one point

0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:52.119
<v Speaker 1>zero eight percent, we have a muted VIX and a

0:18:52.160 --> 0:18:54.760
<v Speaker 1>Donar index that's again approaching in ninety. It is time

0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:58.520
<v Speaker 1>to bring in Sarah Ponzac Crocess, that reporter here at Bloomberg. Sarah,

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.119
<v Speaker 1>what catches your eye most day as an expression of

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.919
<v Speaker 1>what's been happening in the country overnight, Well, it really

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:07.840
<v Speaker 1>is remarkable, and it feels like you're in two different worlds.

0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Yesterday with the images of what we were seeing on

0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Capitol Hill, and then you look at what was happening

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 1>in markets before four pm, and yes, we saw some

0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:20.000
<v Speaker 1>pairing of gains in equity markets, but nothing too remarkable.

0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:22.080
<v Speaker 1>We didn't even see a loss of more than one

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:25.479
<v Speaker 1>percent in to day. And it can seem cold, and

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:27.840
<v Speaker 1>this is also almost an extension of what we've been

0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.160
<v Speaker 1>talking about for almost a year now with the real

0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:35.199
<v Speaker 1>economy with COVID nineteen and the stark differential when it

0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>comes to financial markets. But when you speak with investors

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.440
<v Speaker 1>on why we see this disconnect, why we're not seeing

0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:48.040
<v Speaker 1>these images really affecting investors moods is Peter Bookvar, he's

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.280
<v Speaker 1>over ablicely advisory. I'll read you what he said this morning,

0:19:50.280 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 1>and he said it very plainly. He said, there should

0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>be no mystery as to why the markets didn't care

0:19:54.960 --> 0:19:58.600
<v Speaker 1>about what happened in the capitol yesterday. However disturbing, disgraceful,

0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.639
<v Speaker 1>and embarrassing it was. It's because it is no bearing

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:03.359
<v Speaker 1>on the direction of the economy, earnings, an in trace

0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:05.840
<v Speaker 1>interest rates. It's that simple. And like you mentioned, you

0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:09.240
<v Speaker 1>look at the tenure this morning, just continuing it's climb higher.

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:12.240
<v Speaker 1>The tenure yield this morning is still up another more

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 1>than four basis points. Yeah, we're seeing the yield curve steping.

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:17.960
<v Speaker 1>Easy point out, Sarah, and that's caused a couple of

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:22.040
<v Speaker 1>strategists want a Glomo Sax and dud and Um Jonathan

0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:26.119
<v Speaker 1>Golubt credit Swiss to kind of upgrade their view of

0:20:26.280 --> 0:20:30.120
<v Speaker 1>the big banks right, and Jonathan Golove's view. He also

0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:32.720
<v Speaker 1>upgraded his view and his year in target for the

0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred from forty two hundred. And it was

0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:39.000
<v Speaker 1>an interesting take because he has been talking about how

0:20:39.040 --> 0:20:43.560
<v Speaker 1>this rotation from growth to value was possibly over. That

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.439
<v Speaker 1>we had seen value out performance on a couple of

0:20:46.480 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 1>solid days, that those being the days in which we

0:20:49.119 --> 0:20:52.240
<v Speaker 1>got positive vaccine news when Janet Yellen was nominated to

0:20:52.280 --> 0:20:56.879
<v Speaker 1>be Treasury secretary. Whoever, today he's overweighting cyclical assets. Like

0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.040
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned, we see financials flying higher yet again and

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:03.000
<v Speaker 1>today up more than two percent. But we do see

0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:06.879
<v Speaker 1>this interesting change today because you don't see this clear

0:21:06.960 --> 0:21:11.879
<v Speaker 1>cut cyclical defensive tilt. Yes, we do see defensive equities

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>under performing utilities pretty much flat on the day's staples,

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.520
<v Speaker 1>your second worst performing sector, however, still higher at the

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:20.880
<v Speaker 1>top of the pack, though you have tech and consumer

0:21:20.920 --> 0:21:24.560
<v Speaker 1>discretionary mixed in with financials. So after seeing tech under

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.480
<v Speaker 1>performance yesterday, there are many reasons floated, especially with that

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:30.960
<v Speaker 1>we want to call it a blue ripple. The expectations

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 1>from that, whether that be the possibility of higher capital

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.000
<v Speaker 1>gains and corporate taxes, not that that's expected because the

0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Democrats did take the Senate by such a such a slim,

0:21:39.840 --> 0:21:43.600
<v Speaker 1>narrow margin, but also just the expectations for higher rates

0:21:43.800 --> 0:21:46.080
<v Speaker 1>since low rates have been such a boon for growth docks.

0:21:46.119 --> 0:21:47.960
<v Speaker 1>But today we see tech coming back in a pretty

0:21:47.960 --> 0:21:49.879
<v Speaker 1>big way. The NASDAC up more than two percent as

0:21:49.920 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>we speak. Yeah, and we also have plenty of movement

0:21:53.440 --> 0:21:57.720
<v Speaker 1>in credit markets. We have data coming in constantly showing improvement,

0:21:58.359 --> 0:22:00.439
<v Speaker 1>not so much payroll of data, though, we still have

0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, more than seven hundred thousand people making first

0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:07.359
<v Speaker 1>time claims. Sarah right, it's a reality check. And yes,

0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:11.360
<v Speaker 1>we did see initial jobless claims decline from a week earlier,

0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:14.800
<v Speaker 1>but that's still a very large number, seven hundred eight

0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 1>seven thousand, it's it's extremely large. We saw a negative

0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 1>ADP print tomorrow. Of course, we will get that non

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:24.560
<v Speaker 1>Farm Perils report the first Friday of the new year,

0:22:24.640 --> 0:22:27.080
<v Speaker 1>the first payrolls report of the new year. At some

0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 1>of those estimates have been downgraded brought lower after that

0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:34.679
<v Speaker 1>a DP print that we did get, but this also

0:22:35.000 --> 0:22:38.760
<v Speaker 1>is expected. Right now, we're seeing rising COVID cases. At

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:41.320
<v Speaker 1>least now we have seen a stimulus package past and

0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:44.280
<v Speaker 1>and the expectation is for more stimulus down the pipeline

0:22:45.160 --> 0:22:48.359
<v Speaker 1>by a matter of one trillion in total. Possibly. But

0:22:48.720 --> 0:22:52.119
<v Speaker 1>where we stand now is this was expected. The data

0:22:52.160 --> 0:22:54.440
<v Speaker 1>is expected to get worse. It's going to be hard

0:22:54.480 --> 0:22:56.959
<v Speaker 1>to watch. But again, I know we've discussed it so

0:22:56.960 --> 0:22:59.440
<v Speaker 1>many times and we hear it again and again from investors.

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:02.360
<v Speaker 1>And shotage is that the market is forward looking. It's

0:23:02.400 --> 0:23:04.920
<v Speaker 1>looking past this, and it's looking at a time when

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:08.679
<v Speaker 1>the vaccine rollout really gets going, and the vaccine is

0:23:09.080 --> 0:23:11.760
<v Speaker 1>a majority deployed, and you have a very high savings right,

0:23:11.800 --> 0:23:13.160
<v Speaker 1>and all of a sudden, you have all this pent

0:23:13.240 --> 0:23:17.200
<v Speaker 1>up demand that starts being filtered through the economy. Yeah,

0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:19.720
<v Speaker 1>you wonder when you know, we see some of this, uh,

0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:23.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, economic data, whether it's the job's claims or

0:23:24.000 --> 0:23:27.840
<v Speaker 1>consumer spending start to cause some economists maybe to read

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:31.440
<v Speaker 1>look at some other economic forecast, I know, the bloombrick economics.

0:23:31.440 --> 0:23:34.840
<v Speaker 1>Folks are looking for a slight contraction uh in the

0:23:34.920 --> 0:23:37.800
<v Speaker 1>first quarter. Um, I won there's any building concern about

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:40.359
<v Speaker 1>downside risk? Is some of these economic forecasts well as

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:42.840
<v Speaker 1>of right now, an aggregate, I would say, looking through

0:23:42.920 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 1>research notes, this morning from multiple different cell side research

0:23:46.240 --> 0:23:50.399
<v Speaker 1>shops and and reading notes from economists, they're not really

0:23:50.800 --> 0:23:52.399
<v Speaker 1>so focused. I mean, of course they put out their

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>forecasts for a near term economic data, but when they

0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:58.359
<v Speaker 1>look at GDP forecast for the year, everyone's revising their

0:23:58.400 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 1>GDP forecast higher. That due to the expectations of more

0:24:01.800 --> 0:24:04.639
<v Speaker 1>physical stimulus, more stimulus checks coming down the pipeline in

0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:06.800
<v Speaker 1>addition to the six D it will likely add up

0:24:06.840 --> 0:24:09.520
<v Speaker 1>to two thousand. Now that's the expectation and what that

0:24:09.560 --> 0:24:11.600
<v Speaker 1>means for growth, what that means for savings, and what

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:13.600
<v Speaker 1>that means for the deployment of capital down the road

0:24:13.880 --> 0:24:16.600
<v Speaker 1>and spending. So right now, if you look at aggregate

0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:19.000
<v Speaker 1>for the year of one, and that's what markets are

0:24:19.040 --> 0:24:22.720
<v Speaker 1>looking at two, we're seeing growth expectations just revised higher

0:24:22.720 --> 0:24:25.879
<v Speaker 1>and higher. Yeah, it's really interesting here I'm looking at

0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:29.040
<v Speaker 1>the real GDP forecast on the economic forecast three point

0:24:29.119 --> 0:24:33.560
<v Speaker 1>nine percent one. Uh So, that's interesting how the economists

0:24:33.560 --> 0:24:36.440
<v Speaker 1>are still looking for growth. Hey, Sarah, thanks so much

0:24:36.720 --> 0:24:39.880
<v Speaker 1>for joining us. We appreciate that. As always, Sarah Pons

0:24:39.920 --> 0:24:43.520
<v Speaker 1>that cross asset reporter for Bloomberg News. As the markets Fannie,

0:24:43.840 --> 0:24:45.960
<v Speaker 1>despite everything we see in the world. They continue to

0:24:46.000 --> 0:24:48.200
<v Speaker 1>move higher, don't they. Yeah. I mean, as I say,

0:24:48.280 --> 0:24:50.120
<v Speaker 1>you can have all the political chaos that you want,

0:24:50.119 --> 0:24:52.000
<v Speaker 1>but if you have leadership, or at least the promise

0:24:52.040 --> 0:24:54.760
<v Speaker 1>of leaderships, there isn't that much to worry about for

0:24:54.800 --> 0:24:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the market. Son in a sense, if there's more stimulus coming,

0:24:57.640 --> 0:24:59.639
<v Speaker 1>which is the general consensus, if it's going to be

0:24:59.680 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>a buy Harris administration, then you know, at least in

0:25:02.840 --> 0:25:04.959
<v Speaker 1>the short term, that should be good for markets and

0:25:05.119 --> 0:25:07.520
<v Speaker 1>corporate America. Absolutely, and I think that's kind of what

0:25:07.560 --> 0:25:09.880
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in the markets and what we've seen really

0:25:10.200 --> 0:25:14.680
<v Speaker 1>since O's marchalows. Thanks for listening to Boomberg Markets podcast.

0:25:14.840 --> 0:25:18.240
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

0:25:18.359 --> 0:25:21.880
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm

0:25:21.920 --> 0:25:24.560
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm

0:25:24.560 --> 0:25:27.200
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can

0:25:27.240 --> 0:25:29.480
<v Speaker 1>always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.