WEBVTT - A Central Bank Inflation Issue Is Looming, Kasman Says 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:12.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:16.520 David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:22.279 of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 0:00:22.320 --> 0:00:27.000 on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:33.839 on the Bloomberg Bruce castmans I said, joining us here 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.400 in our bloombergod levon three studios. He's the chief economist 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:38.320 at JP Morgan. Great to have you with us, and 0:00:38.880 --> 0:00:40.519 I wonder if we could just start with your forecast 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:42.400 for for global growth. We were oh, I thought you 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:45.879 were gonna start bitcointka, Well, fair enough, We'll go, oh yeah, 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:48.400 two blocks, you can wind our way to that baby 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.479 enough fair enough. Uh. We were focused on what the 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.360 im from the World Bank concluded. We're saying last week 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.480 while Tom was in Wahington, d C. How's your forecast changed, 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:00.600 if at all, and what's your out look here as 0:01:00.640 --> 0:01:04.000 we as we had two So we've been upbeat and 0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:07.200 we've been basically looking for a transition as we moved 0:01:07.200 --> 0:01:09.800 through the middle of this year from an economy that 0:01:09.840 --> 0:01:12.280 was getting some benefits from just fading the drags that 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:15.280 hit us in two thousand fourteen and emerging markets in 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:17.440 the commodity space to one where we have a more 0:01:17.560 --> 0:01:23.080 organic business led recovery is behavior combines with supportive financial conditions, 0:01:23.120 --> 0:01:26.240 sentiment rising and starts to be synchronized across the world. 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.160 And the good news is that's exactly what we see happening. 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:30.920 I think the big news in the last few months 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.560 is a pick up in business spending. The capex story 0:01:33.640 --> 0:01:36.000 is looking good, and the breath of that I think 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:38.800 carrying across the world. There's a tempering force I think 0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.160 from China, which we do think is slowing into the 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:42.759 second half of the year, but I don't think it's 0:01:42.760 --> 0:01:45.360 gonna hurt things too badly. Uh And I think the 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:47.960 outlook looks bright and I think it's helped, of course 0:01:48.000 --> 0:01:50.280 by the fact that at this stage we don't have 0:01:50.320 --> 0:01:53.480 a central bank inflation issue, but that is looming. I 0:01:53.520 --> 0:01:56.200 think labor markets keep tightening. I think we do have 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.960 a problem that markets are very complacent about where central 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:01.240 banks have to go. But the good news is I 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:02.880 don't think that's a story for the next two or 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:04.800 three months. I think it is a story as we 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:07.200 look out for the next twelve eighteen months. Fair to say, 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.160 a theme of those annual meetings with global inflation, low 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.040 inflation globally, and I wonder sort of how unique it 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:14.760 is in each part of the world. Is there is 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.400 there something unifying the low inflation that we're seeing. Well, 0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:21.760 I think there's a structural set of stories here around globalization, 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:26.639 around the idea that UM technology is helping keep prices low. 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.720 But I think there's a business cycle story that's working here. 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:32.000 I think you can see it in the pipeline, you 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:34.560 can see it in the commodity markets. Uh. You can 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:38.440 also see the labor market tightening continuing here. So I 0:02:38.440 --> 0:02:40.040 think the balance here is that we're in a low 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.320 inflation world. We've been in a low inflation world really 0:02:42.360 --> 0:02:44.480 for two decades right now, at least in the advanced 0:02:44.480 --> 0:02:47.760 economies UM. But I do think the arrow is pointing 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:51.200 modestly higher here, and it's pointing modestly higher of course 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:53.799 in a world and with central bank policies are still 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:59.040 super accommodative, and that's the tension here. The saving grace 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.200 would be if we get the business spending pick up 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:03.360 provide a productivity boost, and I think there is a 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.000 bit of that happening. I just wouldn't count on that 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.200 so much to to offset the natural dynamics of what 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.639 we have, which is a strong demand picture with still 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:16.280 pretty weak supply picture around it. What's holding that back 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:18.440 domestically as you see it or as you you think 0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:20.679 about what might be beholding it back? Of course, Kevin 0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.560 Hassets from the Council of Economic Advisor suggesting that UH 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.040 tax reform would be the thing that would catalyze a 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:28.239 big change there, laying out his case that you know, 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:30.919 corporate tax reform would would change a whole lot, including 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:33.760 the situation for a lot of people here in the US. 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:35.640 How much of a catalyst do you think that would be? 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.680 What would it take to to get that soft data, 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:40.400 to move the hard data to to get that optimism 0:03:40.400 --> 0:03:43.360 to translate to companies spending more or hiring more. Well, 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:45.400 I think we are seeing companies spending more. I think 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:47.720 the hiring picture has been good and will continue to 0:03:47.760 --> 0:03:50.040 be good. So I think the question is what can 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:53.440 we do to catalyze an improvement in an underlying productivity 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:56.760 perhaps labor supply as well. I think if we had 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.720 good reform on the tax front, I think we could 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:04.240 generate some of that. I think sometimes people overestimate the 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:06.680 benefits of that from the supply side relative to the 0:04:06.720 --> 0:04:09.000 demand side influence. And that's I think the problem here 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:11.840 is we have an economy operating in full employment right now. 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:13.760 So I think you have to be careful here and 0:04:13.800 --> 0:04:15.760 not to push too much on the demand side and 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.560 focus more on supply side evidence. I think in the 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:22.920 tax reform debate here we've shifted from a Republican plan 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.120 that you know, a year ago looked like very heavily 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.920 on reform and now is shifting much more towards talking 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.839 basically about tax cuts. Brice Casman with JP Morgan, David 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:33.840 Kerran time Keene said, good morning to all of you 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:39.360 across Yankees America. What a great games. Actually watched too much. 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:42.919 I love this five o'clock start. It's a great and 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.920 beautiful thing, like, oh look the seventh inning. I could 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:48.479 watch it, don't you agree? Oh yeah. When I was 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.800 a kid, we used to have day games in the 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:53.880 World Series, and uh, these ideas of starting the games 0:04:53.880 --> 0:04:55.680 at eight and going on to midnight or one. I 0:04:57.160 --> 0:05:00.040 mean I remember veda pencon of the Cincinnati where and 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:02.920 so it was one of my heroes, I believe against 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:05.000 Tony Quebec in the New York Yankees, and you could 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:08.080 actually watch it as a kid. How novel and I 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:11.359 idea which goes you know, which frankly goes into the 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.560 work week that we're in right now. We so someone 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:17.839 have two America's. We have an America working seventy yards 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:20.440 a week and we got an America working twenty two 0:05:20.480 --> 0:05:24.800 point four hours a week. That's not healthy, is it? No? What? 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.200 What what you're saying? I think is what's not healthy here, 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.599 primarily is we have a labor force where we still 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:34.000 have underutilized resources in some places which don't look easy 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.800 to access in an economy in which we were they 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.880 always there back to seventeen seventies six. Is that always 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.560 been the case or is it really unique this time around. 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:47.040 I'm not familiar with the data for the eighteenth century, 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:52.880 but I do back. I'm sure I'm sure if we 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.640 had my care he would be able to pine on that. 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:59.039 But I do think something that has happened in the 0:05:59.120 --> 0:06:01.680 last ten to teen years, which is pretty important, is 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:05.560 how low the participation rate has become. Some of that 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.240 is the demographics. It's people like us Tom who are 0:06:08.480 --> 0:06:11.760 getting older and leaving the workforce, But the participation rate 0:06:11.760 --> 0:06:13.840 of prime age mails has gone down in a way 0:06:13.880 --> 0:06:18.320 which I think is unfortunately, uh, you know, partly reflecting 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.920 the forces of disruptions in the economy, people on disability, 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.640 things like that, which structurally is not not a good 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.080 thing for the economy. David, here's an email from l 0:06:27.160 --> 0:06:33.880 from New Jersey leaving the workforce good idea. I mentioned 0:06:34.360 --> 0:06:36.120 China a few moments ago. We had to kick off 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.400 of this Party Congress a few hours ago. What are 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.400 you listening for? Is all of this as this plays 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:44.080 out invasion? We had the opening speech from the Chinese premier. 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:45.880 What are you gonna be listening for when it comes 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.760 to policy? What are you gonna look for signs of 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:51.720 how changes to policy, continuation to policy is going to 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.560 be telegraphed. Well, I think we have to look at 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:57.240 the Party Congress as being more long term oriented in 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.360 terms of what kind of policy initiatives were in here. 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:03.160 So it is important to get a sense as we 0:07:03.240 --> 0:07:07.039 read through the speeches where the priorities are shifting. But 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:08.880 I think it's a mistake to think we're gonna find 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:11.440 out anything about what's going to happen in the next 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.320 six to twelve months, that's gonna play out in a 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.480 slower process. Our basic call here is that we're not 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:22.280 looking to see the Party Congress change the direction China 0:07:22.360 --> 0:07:24.440 is on, at least in the shorter term, and we 0:07:24.480 --> 0:07:27.720 do think that direction is towards some modest slowing um, 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.520 not one that is very disruptive for the globe economy, 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.440 but one. As I said earlier, temper is a little 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:36.800 bit this very buoyant picture we see across Europe and 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:39.240 the America's right. Now come back here just a moment, 0:07:39.240 --> 0:07:41.520 but let's set the table for the next block. I 0:07:41.520 --> 0:07:44.320 imagine trade is is still a huge issue in that 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:45.800 part of the world. We see the number countries there 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:48.880 are trying to continue with tpp sans the the US. 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.640 How large does that loom the conversations about Chinese to 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:55.000 the Chinese economy? Well, I think for China, trade is 0:07:55.040 --> 0:07:57.640 a pretty darn important part of their growth strategy, and 0:07:57.720 --> 0:08:00.640 I think they see an opportunity here with the US 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:03.800 pulling out a t p P to become more integrated 0:08:04.120 --> 0:08:06.520 with the region, would become more integrated with the world. 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.240 I think TPP is a bit of a lost opportunity 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:12.160 for US. I think it's much smaller in scope than 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:14.280 the risks we have if we start to tear up 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.520 NAFTA or we begin to engage in more protectionist measures. 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:21.080 As I say earlier to Tom, I think it's very 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.000 important to realize there are problems in trade, and we 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:25.800 should be working to try to fix them. But we 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:27.960 should be trying to work to fix them by opening 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.320 up China, not by closing down the United States to trade. 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:34.800 Were Bruce Kasmin of JP moregan talking of any number 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.520 of topics. Sometimes in our break, folks, we get these 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.880 great ideas. We're going to talk about Yankees astros, but 0:08:40.920 --> 0:08:44.480 we'll try to get back here to adult material. Uh. Trade, 0:08:44.880 --> 0:08:49.640 Are imports different now than imports of ten or twenty 0:08:49.960 --> 0:08:52.880 or thirty years ago? In the granular data, what you 0:08:52.920 --> 0:09:00.280 guys are claimed on is the makeup of imports different? Um? Well, 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:04.640 I think what you're seeing is is generally greater integration 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:09.680 and goods with the continued penetration into US consumers spending 0:09:09.760 --> 0:09:12.080 on the imports side. That's a trend that's been in place, 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:15.200 and I don't think it's it's really shifted. I think 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:19.480 we are seeing a slow but steady grind towards having 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.800 some greater integration and services trade, and that to me 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:24.920 is actually if we wanted to think sort of forward, 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.720 if looking five ten years and want to talk about 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:32.160 where there's an opportunity for you know, boosting the supply side, 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:36.400 boosting growth, it's opening up trade in services, which, by 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:39.120 the way, t p P would have started that process 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:42.560 with regard to the US and the Asian economies. That's 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:46.280 still probably an under underutilized part of what the global 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.920 global integration story is about. It's moved forward, and I 0:09:49.920 --> 0:09:52.400 think we have more integration in terms of people doing 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.760 things in the services area, but it's still I think, 0:09:55.760 --> 0:09:57.840 got a long way potentially to go. Are we going 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:01.040 to do t p P without calling it TPP because 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:03.760 that has to do with President Obama? I mean basically, 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.360 are we gonna have the same ballet with put a 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.440 different stick, of different label on it. I'd certainly be 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.480 in favor of that, But I don't see the political 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.720 process going in that direction. You know, you maybe maybe 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:16.880 there's something there I'm not seeing, but I'm I'm worried 0:10:16.920 --> 0:10:20.120 about about things going more more negatively on a whole 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:22.320 bunch of fronts on trade here. I think that's one 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.640 of the big risks in the in the global outlook 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.400 right now. Our college Jennifer Jacobs yesterday at the Joint 0:10:27.440 --> 0:10:29.520 Press conference at the White House has the President about 0:10:29.520 --> 0:10:31.840 the search for a new FED chair, and he confirmed 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.240 we've got these five front runners. He's meeting with Jenny 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.400 Gellen a bit later this week to talk to her 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.800 about her future, and so we'll find out soon. I 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:40.400 guess before that trip to to Asia here in a 0:10:40.440 --> 0:10:41.920 few weeks time, who's going to be sitting at the 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:45.320 head of the table in the Echoes building. What's what 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:47.840 are you watching is these these interviews take place. How 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:49.320 much difference do you think it would be to have 0:10:49.400 --> 0:10:52.240 a Kevin Warsh in that chair or a John Taylor 0:10:52.280 --> 0:10:54.000 in that chair in terms of the policy that's laid 0:10:54.000 --> 0:10:56.840 out now, the path that we're on. How much can 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.720 one person I'll be one person heading up the FMC 0:10:59.880 --> 0:11:03.360 make a difference at this point. So I think the 0:11:03.360 --> 0:11:05.720 first thing to say is that, leaving aside the issue 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.640 of hawkish and devish, it's good to see that the 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:11.319 five names that are there will look like people who 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:14.440 who would be generally speaking qualified to do the job. 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.960 That's something we couldn't have counted on thinking about the 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:21.360 process two or three months ago. So then the question 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.600 you're asking, which is important is how much does the 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:27.959 chair matter? And I think, uh, the chair is always 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:31.439 going to be given authority at the FED to have leadership. 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:33.839 But the chair has to get that leadership partly by 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.920 working to form consensus on the committee. So if you 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.040 would think about it, and I don't really want to 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.240 project the stance that individuals will take. If you think 0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:44.360 about somebody coming in who would want to jerk the 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:48.160 FED into a more uh you know, significant different direction, 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:51.680 the Committee would pull them back inherently because the power 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.040 of the chair comes from the committee. They don't have 0:11:54.120 --> 0:11:58.000 that by law. Uh So I think I think the 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.080 chair matters. I think you have people who would be 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.720 on the morehawkers side and perhaps on the more dovish side, 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:06.840 people who have different attitudes about balance sheet. But I 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:08.920 think it's hard to see a new FED chair come 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:12.079 in and really change the direction the committee, certainly over 0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.480 the over the near term. Does the vice chair matter 0:12:14.520 --> 0:12:17.120 just as much that we we're losing or we've lost 0:12:17.120 --> 0:12:19.240 stand Fishery is the vice chair of the of the 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:23.120 Federal Reserve. Huge shoes to feel suffice to say, how 0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:25.680 important is that role? Are we paying enough attention to 0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:30.040 the replacement of him going forward? Well, usually the vice 0:12:30.120 --> 0:12:33.040 chair is is to some degree chosen by the chair, 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:35.320 or at least the chair has an important influence on it. 0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.840 So one of the interesting questions is whether or not, 0:12:37.960 --> 0:12:40.120 as we have four seats that are going to get 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.600 filled at the Federal Reserve Board, to what degree is 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.480 the chair shows that and then the other members connected 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.080 to the chair in some way or do we have 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.439 different So if we have someone who's chosen completely independently 0:12:51.440 --> 0:12:55.160 of the chair, then I think you have less connectivity 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:57.720 and potentially less power for the vice chair by them 0:12:57.960 --> 0:12:59.760 by themselves. But I do think it's important to think 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:02.800 about out four seats and the chair being the most 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:05.440 important by far. But the idea that you can have 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.360 a broader shift in terms of FED policy if you 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.600 change all four people in a certain in a certain direction. 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.640 It's hard to do that find four people who will 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.600 who will all shift in the same direction, But certainly 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:18.920 it matters that we have that many seats open right now. 0:13:19.160 --> 0:13:22.840 Christ Casmin, thank you so much. With Bloomberg Surveillance, television 0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:27.040 and radio this morning. Uh we oh, oh, we didn't 0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:42.080 get to bitcoin too bad. David Garrow wanted to bring 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:45.560 in our extinguished guest. Some cheers erupted in some corners 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:48.760 of the Capitol yesterday when a Republican Senator, Lamar Alexander 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:51.600 announced he that forged a deal with his Democratic counterpart, 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:55.480 Patty Murray of Washington State on healthcare. Uh, there was 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:57.120 some cheers. As I mentioned, there was some who were 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:59.520 not in favor of this bipartisan piece of legislation. Among 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.760 the Mark Palker, the congressman from the sixth District in 0:14:01.800 --> 0:14:04.679 North Carolina. He's the head of the Republican Study Committee. 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:06.000 We've talked to him from time to time. Good to 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:07.920 happen with us here, Congress. Let me just start with 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:10.120 your reaction. You can explain more fully how you feel 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:13.160 about this piece of legislation that these two senators have crafted. 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.760 It seems like they've created the fix the President said 0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:17.640 he was looking for. Why are you not in favor 0:14:17.640 --> 0:14:21.480 of what they've come up with? Well, I I think anytime. 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.520 First of all, going back to what Lamar Alexander said yesterday, 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.240 that he was encouraged by an increasingly potential group that 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.000 was supported. Let's just watch it in speech, and this 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:34.320 is csrs have been a mess from day one, uh 0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.200 two thousand sixteen. The House sued and it was ruled 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.320 to certainly illegal, and I don't know that it does 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.280 anything long term to be able to resolve some of 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:44.960 the things that we're seeing. When it comes to the 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:48.600 increased previous What are your constituents in Burlington and Mevin 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.600 throughout the six district say to you about these csrs. 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:55.120 He's constant reduction subsidies. I imagine a lot of them 0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:57.080 depend on them. And what we have here is a 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.760 president doing away with them, kicking the can over to Congress, 0:14:59.800 --> 0:15:02.160 and it's gonna take some time to figure all this out. 0:15:02.200 --> 0:15:04.720 I know that you'd rather see them go away entirely, 0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.240 see this law changed completely. But there's got to be 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:08.880 people who talk to you who are worried about what 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.280 it means for their coverage. I would be remiss if 0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.000 I didn't say that that there is some concern trying 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.440 to find that balance. There's always a challenge. Just two 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:20.480 days ago, I heard from a gentleman who had received 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.880 a letter from Blue Cross at Blue Shield here in 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:26.680 North Carolina. He is a cancer survivor. He's mortgaged his house, 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.240 second mortgage. His premiums are getting ready to jump fifteen 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.360 hundred to three thousand dollars. So so it's it's it's 0:15:33.400 --> 0:15:35.800 those folks as well that we have to represent. And 0:15:35.800 --> 0:15:39.000 that's not even talking about Remember former President Clinton talked 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.680 about what it does to the small businesses and uh 0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:43.880 those that's a component this as well, as long as 0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.880 these mandates continue to reduce the growth in some of 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:50.040 these areas, specifically here in North Carolina. I mean asked 0:15:50.040 --> 0:15:52.400 about the role insurance companies should be playing here. I've 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:54.240 noticed a change in tone on the part of the 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.160 President toward insurance companies. Back in February, he invited a 0:15:57.200 --> 0:15:59.040 lot of big CEOs over to the White House. He 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.400 praised them for the work are doing. Now he's talked 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:03.240 an awful lot about the degree to which the government 0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:06.000 has been propping up their stock prices. That's one thing 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.400 that that he's mentioned about them. What role do you 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:12.000 want to see insurance companies playing here going forward? Well, 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:15.840 I know this under Obamacare, people are hurting, but insurance 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.040 companies are not. And I want to be careful before 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.280 we sent a president that we're literally writing checks out 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.520 of Congress to these insurance company's. Whether you want to 0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:28.440 call it a bill out or anything else as a subsidy, 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.440 that's that's a that's a crucial concern that should be 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.080 um long term. Where does this stop? What happens if 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:37.400 we start doing this to other companies? Are or are 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:39.800 there entities? And I think that's one of the reasons 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:42.560 that many Republicans and others in the House have such 0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:46.280 an issue with it. Just joining us Congressman Mark Walter 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:51.560 Walker rather the Republican of the Piedmont of North Carolina. Uh, Congressman, 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:53.760 you are the fabric of the Piedmont. Your father was 0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:56.560 a minister, you're a Baptist minister, and you have a 0:16:56.640 --> 0:17:01.560 campaign approach. It is absolutely original for concern pervatives in America. 0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:05.119 How do you adapt and adjust to the certitude of 0:17:05.200 --> 0:17:10.280 non religious conservatives, particularly the more conservative types. You've pushed 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:14.800 against that sort to year after year after year of 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:20.800 your public service. Where's the humility among conservatives today? Well, 0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:23.720 it's it's dissipated. To be frankly with frank with you, 0:17:23.840 --> 0:17:26.040 that that is something that that we are continuing to 0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:30.520 call for that unless there are certain relationships built on 0:17:30.600 --> 0:17:33.520 trust that we're never going to resolve some of these issues. 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:36.280 We see the rhetoric even continue to grow. One of 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:38.159 the things that I'm most proud of is is a 0:17:38.200 --> 0:17:40.960 great relationship with the Chancellor of North Carolina A and T. 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.880 I'm privileged to represent the largest historical Black college university 0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:48.600 in the country. In fact, we launched a paid internships 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:52.240 for HBCU students. That's important to UH my family's even 0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:55.359 personal but my wife being a two time graduate of 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.000 one of the hbc used this is something that we've 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:00.800 got to be able to continue to work on because 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.359 the condescension that we see from some circles where do 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.200 your right or left does not allow us to really 0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.080 bring solutions, but it only creates more divisions. Let me 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:10.639 ask you lastly here in the time we have with you. 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:13.320 Know you're busy about the the opioid crisis. To aur 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:14.960 you embarked on a couple of days ago, a two 0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:17.440 day two or throughout your district. I know you went 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:20.400 to Elon University for roundtable. You went to an alcohol 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:23.080 and drug abuse treatment center. What did folks there say 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.119 to you about what role they think the federal government 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.639 should play? Of course we've watched here as Congressman Tom Marino, 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:30.119 you're colleague in the Capital, has stepped away from from 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.800 consideration to be the drugs are as it's called. What 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:35.760 did they say about the role the federal government should 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:40.080 play incurving this crisis. Well, obviously, any time you're dealing 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:42.560 with some of the local even state agencies, funding is 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.480 always the concern. Our job is to make sure that 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:48.840 every dollar from taxpayers that we receive that we're being 0:18:48.880 --> 0:18:52.399 good stewards. But but it's different than talking with people 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:55.639 who are working in this area. As a people literally 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.080 walking to the journey of addiction. I wish more of 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.320 us are more people would get out there and see 0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:02.120 some of the heartache of the last six years. We've 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:05.680 gone from seventeen thousand deaths to over sixty thousand deaths 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.520 last year. This is an epidemic proportion. We've got to 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:10.800 be working on on prevention, We've got to be working 0:19:10.800 --> 0:19:12.720 with people who are walking through. But we've also got 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:14.480 to make sure long term, what is it that we 0:19:14.560 --> 0:19:17.080 do to be able to to offer these people an 0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.480 opportunity to get back on track to fulfill as a 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:21.600 person of faith, the very path I feel like God's 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.119 created for Mark Walker great to speak me. That's Congress 0:19:24.119 --> 0:19:39.280 in Mark Walker, the sixth district in North Carolina. Let 0:19:39.359 --> 0:19:41.399 me bring in our our our next guest, and David 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.959 will have more intelligent converse questions than I will end 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:47.920 to Kenny uh to be direct as a former Prime 0:19:47.960 --> 0:19:52.320 Minister of the courageous people of Ireland, who is anybody knows? 0:19:52.359 --> 0:19:54.399 In the Wall Street Rack were the first people to 0:19:54.520 --> 0:19:57.360 really say we gotta be adult, We've got to take 0:19:57.400 --> 0:20:01.040 responsibility for this tobacco of two thousands, seven two eight. 0:20:01.640 --> 0:20:03.959 We can talk about the financial aspect. Did you know? 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:06.240 And I went back, David, I looked at some of 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.679 Gordon Brown's comments of oh seven oh eight, did you 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:10.760