1 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with 2 00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best 3 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance 4 00:00:22,320 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, 5 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Bruce castmans I said, joining us here 6 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: in our bloombergod levon three studios. He's the chief economist 7 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:38,320 Speaker 1: at JP Morgan. Great to have you with us, and 8 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: I wonder if we could just start with your forecast 9 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: for for global growth. We were oh, I thought you 10 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: were gonna start bitcointka, Well, fair enough, We'll go, oh yeah, 11 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: two blocks, you can wind our way to that baby 12 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,479 Speaker 1: enough fair enough. Uh. We were focused on what the 13 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: im from the World Bank concluded. We're saying last week 14 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: while Tom was in Wahington, d C. How's your forecast changed, 15 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: if at all, and what's your out look here as 16 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: we as we had two So we've been upbeat and 17 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: we've been basically looking for a transition as we moved 18 00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: through the middle of this year from an economy that 19 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 1: was getting some benefits from just fading the drags that 20 00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 1: hit us in two thousand fourteen and emerging markets in 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,440 Speaker 1: the commodity space to one where we have a more 22 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: organic business led recovery is behavior combines with supportive financial conditions, 23 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: sentiment rising and starts to be synchronized across the world. 24 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: And the good news is that's exactly what we see happening. 25 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:30,920 Speaker 1: I think the big news in the last few months 26 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: is a pick up in business spending. The capex story 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: is looking good, and the breath of that I think 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: carrying across the world. There's a tempering force I think 29 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,160 Speaker 1: from China, which we do think is slowing into the 30 00:01:41,200 --> 00:01:42,759 Speaker 1: second half of the year, but I don't think it's 31 00:01:42,760 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: gonna hurt things too badly. Uh And I think the 32 00:01:45,360 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: outlook looks bright and I think it's helped, of course 33 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 1: by the fact that at this stage we don't have 34 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: a central bank inflation issue, but that is looming. I 35 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: think labor markets keep tightening. I think we do have 36 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: a problem that markets are very complacent about where central 37 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 1: banks have to go. But the good news is I 38 00:02:01,240 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: don't think that's a story for the next two or 39 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: three months. I think it is a story as we 40 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: look out for the next twelve eighteen months. Fair to say, 41 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 1: a theme of those annual meetings with global inflation, low 42 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: inflation globally, and I wonder sort of how unique it 43 00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: is in each part of the world. Is there is 44 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: there something unifying the low inflation that we're seeing. Well, 45 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: I think there's a structural set of stories here around globalization, 46 00:02:21,960 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 1: around the idea that UM technology is helping keep prices low. 47 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: But I think there's a business cycle story that's working here. 48 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: I think you can see it in the pipeline, you 49 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: can see it in the commodity markets. Uh. You can 50 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: also see the labor market tightening continuing here. So I 51 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: think the balance here is that we're in a low 52 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: inflation world. We've been in a low inflation world really 53 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: for two decades right now, at least in the advanced 54 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: economies UM. But I do think the arrow is pointing 55 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: modestly higher here, and it's pointing modestly higher of course 56 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:53,799 Speaker 1: in a world and with central bank policies are still 57 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 1: super accommodative, and that's the tension here. The saving grace 58 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: would be if we get the business spending pick up 59 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 1: provide a productivity boost, and I think there is a 60 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: bit of that happening. I just wouldn't count on that 61 00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 1: so much to to offset the natural dynamics of what 62 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 1: we have, which is a strong demand picture with still 63 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: pretty weak supply picture around it. What's holding that back 64 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: domestically as you see it or as you you think 65 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:20,679 Speaker 1: about what might be beholding it back? Of course, Kevin 66 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 1: Hassets from the Council of Economic Advisor suggesting that UH 67 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: tax reform would be the thing that would catalyze a 68 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 1: big change there, laying out his case that you know, 69 00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:30,919 Speaker 1: corporate tax reform would would change a whole lot, including 70 00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: the situation for a lot of people here in the US. 71 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 1: How much of a catalyst do you think that would be? 72 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 1: What would it take to to get that soft data, 73 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: to move the hard data to to get that optimism 74 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: to translate to companies spending more or hiring more. Well, 75 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: I think we are seeing companies spending more. I think 76 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: the hiring picture has been good and will continue to 77 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: be good. So I think the question is what can 78 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: we do to catalyze an improvement in an underlying productivity 79 00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: perhaps labor supply as well. I think if we had 80 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: good reform on the tax front, I think we could 81 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 1: generate some of that. I think sometimes people overestimate the 82 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 1: benefits of that from the supply side relative to the 83 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: demand side influence. And that's I think the problem here 84 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: is we have an economy operating in full employment right now. 85 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 1: So I think you have to be careful here and 86 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: not to push too much on the demand side and 87 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: focus more on supply side evidence. I think in the 88 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 1: tax reform debate here we've shifted from a Republican plan 89 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: that you know, a year ago looked like very heavily 90 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: on reform and now is shifting much more towards talking 91 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: basically about tax cuts. Brice Casman with JP Morgan, David 92 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 1: Kerran time Keene said, good morning to all of you 93 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: across Yankees America. What a great games. Actually watched too much. 94 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 1: I love this five o'clock start. It's a great and 95 00:04:42,920 --> 00:04:45,920 Speaker 1: beautiful thing, like, oh look the seventh inning. I could 96 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,479 Speaker 1: watch it, don't you agree? Oh yeah. When I was 97 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:50,800 Speaker 1: a kid, we used to have day games in the 98 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: World Series, and uh, these ideas of starting the games 99 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: at eight and going on to midnight or one. I 100 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,040 Speaker 1: mean I remember veda pencon of the Cincinnati where and 101 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 1: so it was one of my heroes, I believe against 102 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: Tony Quebec in the New York Yankees, and you could 103 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: actually watch it as a kid. How novel and I 104 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: idea which goes you know, which frankly goes into the 105 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: work week that we're in right now. We so someone 106 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 1: have two America's. We have an America working seventy yards 107 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 1: a week and we got an America working twenty two 108 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: point four hours a week. That's not healthy, is it? No? What? 109 00:05:24,800 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: What what you're saying? I think is what's not healthy here, 110 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 1: primarily is we have a labor force where we still 111 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: have underutilized resources in some places which don't look easy 112 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: to access in an economy in which we were they 113 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: always there back to seventeen seventies six. Is that always 114 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: been the case or is it really unique this time around. 115 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: I'm not familiar with the data for the eighteenth century, 116 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:52,880 Speaker 1: but I do back. I'm sure I'm sure if we 117 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: had my care he would be able to pine on that. 118 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: But I do think something that has happened in the 119 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: last ten to teen years, which is pretty important, is 120 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: how low the participation rate has become. Some of that 121 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: is the demographics. It's people like us Tom who are 122 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:11,760 Speaker 1: getting older and leaving the workforce, But the participation rate 123 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 1: of prime age mails has gone down in a way 124 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 1: which I think is unfortunately, uh, you know, partly reflecting 125 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: the forces of disruptions in the economy, people on disability, 126 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: things like that, which structurally is not not a good 127 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: thing for the economy. David, here's an email from l 128 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: from New Jersey leaving the workforce good idea. I mentioned 129 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 1: China a few moments ago. We had to kick off 130 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 1: of this Party Congress a few hours ago. What are 131 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: you listening for? Is all of this as this plays 132 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:44,080 Speaker 1: out invasion? We had the opening speech from the Chinese premier. 133 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: What are you gonna be listening for when it comes 134 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 1: to policy? What are you gonna look for signs of 135 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: how changes to policy, continuation to policy is going to 136 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: be telegraphed. Well, I think we have to look at 137 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: the Party Congress as being more long term oriented in 138 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,360 Speaker 1: terms of what kind of policy initiatives were in here. 139 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: So it is important to get a sense as we 140 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 1: read through the speeches where the priorities are shifting. But 141 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: I think it's a mistake to think we're gonna find 142 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: out anything about what's going to happen in the next 143 00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: six to twelve months, that's gonna play out in a 144 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 1: slower process. Our basic call here is that we're not 145 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: looking to see the Party Congress change the direction China 146 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: is on, at least in the shorter term, and we 147 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: do think that direction is towards some modest slowing um, 148 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,520 Speaker 1: not one that is very disruptive for the globe economy, 149 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: but one. As I said earlier, temper is a little 150 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,800 Speaker 1: bit this very buoyant picture we see across Europe and 151 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: the America's right. Now come back here just a moment, 152 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: but let's set the table for the next block. I 153 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: imagine trade is is still a huge issue in that 154 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 1: part of the world. We see the number countries there 155 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: are trying to continue with tpp sans the the US. 156 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: How large does that loom the conversations about Chinese to 157 00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy? Well, I think for China, trade is 158 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: a pretty darn important part of their growth strategy, and 159 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: I think they see an opportunity here with the US 160 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: pulling out a t p P to become more integrated 161 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: with the region, would become more integrated with the world. 162 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: I think TPP is a bit of a lost opportunity 163 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,160 Speaker 1: for US. I think it's much smaller in scope than 164 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: the risks we have if we start to tear up 165 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,520 Speaker 1: NAFTA or we begin to engage in more protectionist measures. 166 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: As I say earlier to Tom, I think it's very 167 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: important to realize there are problems in trade, and we 168 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:25,800 Speaker 1: should be working to try to fix them. But we 169 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: should be trying to work to fix them by opening 170 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: up China, not by closing down the United States to trade. 171 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: Were Bruce Kasmin of JP moregan talking of any number 172 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: of topics. Sometimes in our break, folks, we get these 173 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: great ideas. We're going to talk about Yankees astros, but 174 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:44,480 Speaker 1: we'll try to get back here to adult material. Uh. Trade, 175 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: Are imports different now than imports of ten or twenty 176 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: or thirty years ago? In the granular data, what you 177 00:08:52,920 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: guys are claimed on is the makeup of imports different? Um? Well, 178 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing is is generally greater integration 179 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: and goods with the continued penetration into US consumers spending 180 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: on the imports side. That's a trend that's been in place, 181 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:15,200 Speaker 1: and I don't think it's it's really shifted. I think 182 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: we are seeing a slow but steady grind towards having 183 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: some greater integration and services trade, and that to me 184 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,920 Speaker 1: is actually if we wanted to think sort of forward, 185 00:09:24,920 --> 00:09:27,720 Speaker 1: if looking five ten years and want to talk about 186 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: where there's an opportunity for you know, boosting the supply side, 187 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: boosting growth, it's opening up trade in services, which, by 188 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 1: the way, t p P would have started that process 189 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 1: with regard to the US and the Asian economies. That's 190 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 1: still probably an under underutilized part of what the global 191 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 1: global integration story is about. It's moved forward, and I 192 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 1: think we have more integration in terms of people doing 193 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: things in the services area, but it's still I think, 194 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: got a long way potentially to go. Are we going 195 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:01,040 Speaker 1: to do t p P without calling it TPP because 196 00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 1: that has to do with President Obama? I mean basically, 197 00:10:03,760 --> 00:10:06,360 Speaker 1: are we gonna have the same ballet with put a 198 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,440 Speaker 1: different stick, of different label on it. I'd certainly be 199 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: in favor of that, But I don't see the political 200 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: process going in that direction. You know, you maybe maybe 201 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 1: there's something there I'm not seeing, but I'm I'm worried 202 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: about about things going more more negatively on a whole 203 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,320 Speaker 1: bunch of fronts on trade here. I think that's one 204 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: of the big risks in the in the global outlook 205 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: right now. Our college Jennifer Jacobs yesterday at the Joint 206 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: Press conference at the White House has the President about 207 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: the search for a new FED chair, and he confirmed 208 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: we've got these five front runners. He's meeting with Jenny 209 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: Gellen a bit later this week to talk to her 210 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: about her future, and so we'll find out soon. I 211 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:40,400 Speaker 1: guess before that trip to to Asia here in a 212 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: few weeks time, who's going to be sitting at the 213 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,320 Speaker 1: head of the table in the Echoes building. What's what 214 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 1: are you watching is these these interviews take place. How 215 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 1: much difference do you think it would be to have 216 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: a Kevin Warsh in that chair or a John Taylor 217 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: in that chair in terms of the policy that's laid 218 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,840 Speaker 1: out now, the path that we're on. How much can 219 00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: one person I'll be one person heading up the FMC 220 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,360 Speaker 1: make a difference at this point. So I think the 221 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: first thing to say is that, leaving aside the issue 222 00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 1: of hawkish and devish, it's good to see that the 223 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,319 Speaker 1: five names that are there will look like people who 224 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: who would be generally speaking qualified to do the job. 225 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: That's something we couldn't have counted on thinking about the 226 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: process two or three months ago. So then the question 227 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 1: you're asking, which is important is how much does the 228 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:27,959 Speaker 1: chair matter? And I think, uh, the chair is always 229 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,439 Speaker 1: going to be given authority at the FED to have leadership. 230 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:33,839 Speaker 1: But the chair has to get that leadership partly by 231 00:11:33,840 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: working to form consensus on the committee. So if you 232 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 1: would think about it, and I don't really want to 233 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: project the stance that individuals will take. If you think 234 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 1: about somebody coming in who would want to jerk the 235 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:48,160 Speaker 1: FED into a more uh you know, significant different direction, 236 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: the Committee would pull them back inherently because the power 237 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: of the chair comes from the committee. They don't have 238 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 1: that by law. Uh So I think I think the 239 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: chair matters. I think you have people who would be 240 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: on the morehawkers side and perhaps on the more dovish side, 241 00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: people who have different attitudes about balance sheet. But I 242 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: think it's hard to see a new FED chair come 243 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,079 Speaker 1: in and really change the direction the committee, certainly over 244 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: the over the near term. Does the vice chair matter 245 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 1: just as much that we we're losing or we've lost 246 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: stand Fishery is the vice chair of the of the 247 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve. Huge shoes to feel suffice to say, how 248 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 1: important is that role? Are we paying enough attention to 249 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: the replacement of him going forward? Well, usually the vice 250 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:33,040 Speaker 1: chair is is to some degree chosen by the chair, 251 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,320 Speaker 1: or at least the chair has an important influence on it. 252 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: So one of the interesting questions is whether or not, 253 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 1: as we have four seats that are going to get 254 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: filled at the Federal Reserve Board, to what degree is 255 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 1: the chair shows that and then the other members connected 256 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:48,080 Speaker 1: to the chair in some way or do we have 257 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:51,439 Speaker 1: different So if we have someone who's chosen completely independently 258 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 1: of the chair, then I think you have less connectivity 259 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: and potentially less power for the vice chair by them 260 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: by themselves. But I do think it's important to think 261 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: about out four seats and the chair being the most 262 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: important by far. But the idea that you can have 263 00:13:05,520 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 1: a broader shift in terms of FED policy if you 264 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: change all four people in a certain in a certain direction. 265 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: It's hard to do that find four people who will 266 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 1: who will all shift in the same direction, But certainly 267 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 1: it matters that we have that many seats open right now. 268 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: Christ Casmin, thank you so much. With Bloomberg Surveillance, television 269 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: and radio this morning. Uh we oh, oh, we didn't 270 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 1: get to bitcoin too bad. David Garrow wanted to bring 271 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: in our extinguished guest. Some cheers erupted in some corners 272 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 1: of the Capitol yesterday when a Republican Senator, Lamar Alexander 273 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 1: announced he that forged a deal with his Democratic counterpart, 274 00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: Patty Murray of Washington State on healthcare. Uh, there was 275 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: some cheers. As I mentioned, there was some who were 276 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 1: not in favor of this bipartisan piece of legislation. Among 277 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:01,760 Speaker 1: the Mark Palker, the congressman from the sixth District in 278 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: North Carolina. He's the head of the Republican Study Committee. 279 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: We've talked to him from time to time. Good to 280 00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,920 Speaker 1: happen with us here, Congress. Let me just start with 281 00:14:07,960 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: your reaction. You can explain more fully how you feel 282 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 1: about this piece of legislation that these two senators have crafted. 283 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,760 Speaker 1: It seems like they've created the fix the President said 284 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: he was looking for. Why are you not in favor 285 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: of what they've come up with? Well, I I think anytime. 286 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: First of all, going back to what Lamar Alexander said yesterday, 287 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 1: that he was encouraged by an increasingly potential group that 288 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,000 Speaker 1: was supported. Let's just watch it in speech, and this 289 00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 1: is csrs have been a mess from day one, uh 290 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: two thousand sixteen. The House sued and it was ruled 291 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,320 Speaker 1: to certainly illegal, and I don't know that it does 292 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: anything long term to be able to resolve some of 293 00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: the things that we're seeing. When it comes to the 294 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,600 Speaker 1: increased previous What are your constituents in Burlington and Mevin 295 00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: throughout the six district say to you about these csrs. 296 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: He's constant reduction subsidies. I imagine a lot of them 297 00:14:55,160 --> 00:14:57,080 Speaker 1: depend on them. And what we have here is a 298 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: president doing away with them, kicking the can over to Congress, 299 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: and it's gonna take some time to figure all this out. 300 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: I know that you'd rather see them go away entirely, 301 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: see this law changed completely. But there's got to be 302 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: people who talk to you who are worried about what 303 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: it means for their coverage. I would be remiss if 304 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: I didn't say that that there is some concern trying 305 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,440 Speaker 1: to find that balance. There's always a challenge. Just two 306 00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: days ago, I heard from a gentleman who had received 307 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 1: a letter from Blue Cross at Blue Shield here in 308 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 1: North Carolina. He is a cancer survivor. He's mortgaged his house, 309 00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: second mortgage. His premiums are getting ready to jump fifteen 310 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 1: hundred to three thousand dollars. So so it's it's it's 311 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:35,800 Speaker 1: those folks as well that we have to represent. And 312 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,000 Speaker 1: that's not even talking about Remember former President Clinton talked 313 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 1: about what it does to the small businesses and uh 314 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: those that's a component this as well, as long as 315 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: these mandates continue to reduce the growth in some of 316 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: these areas, specifically here in North Carolina. I mean asked 317 00:15:50,040 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 1: about the role insurance companies should be playing here. I've 318 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: noticed a change in tone on the part of the 319 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 1: President toward insurance companies. Back in February, he invited a 320 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 1: lot of big CEOs over to the White House. He 321 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: praised them for the work are doing. Now he's talked 322 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 1: an awful lot about the degree to which the government 323 00:16:03,280 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: has been propping up their stock prices. That's one thing 324 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: that that he's mentioned about them. What role do you 325 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: want to see insurance companies playing here going forward? Well, 326 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: I know this under Obamacare, people are hurting, but insurance 327 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 1: companies are not. And I want to be careful before 328 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: we sent a president that we're literally writing checks out 329 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 1: of Congress to these insurance company's. Whether you want to 330 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: call it a bill out or anything else as a subsidy, 331 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,440 Speaker 1: that's that's a that's a crucial concern that should be 332 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: um long term. Where does this stop? What happens if 333 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: we start doing this to other companies? Are or are 334 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: there entities? And I think that's one of the reasons 335 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: that many Republicans and others in the House have such 336 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: an issue with it. Just joining us Congressman Mark Walter 337 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: Walker rather the Republican of the Piedmont of North Carolina. Uh, Congressman, 338 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: you are the fabric of the Piedmont. Your father was 339 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,560 Speaker 1: a minister, you're a Baptist minister, and you have a 340 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 1: campaign approach. It is absolutely original for concern pervatives in America. 341 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 1: How do you adapt and adjust to the certitude of 342 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 1: non religious conservatives, particularly the more conservative types. You've pushed 343 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:14,800 Speaker 1: against that sort to year after year after year of 344 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: your public service. Where's the humility among conservatives today? Well, 345 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: it's it's dissipated. To be frankly with frank with you, 346 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: that that is something that that we are continuing to 347 00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: call for that unless there are certain relationships built on 348 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: trust that we're never going to resolve some of these issues. 349 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 1: We see the rhetoric even continue to grow. One of 350 00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 1: the things that I'm most proud of is is a 351 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: great relationship with the Chancellor of North Carolina A and T. 352 00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,880 Speaker 1: I'm privileged to represent the largest historical Black college university 353 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 1: in the country. In fact, we launched a paid internships 354 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: for HBCU students. That's important to UH my family's even 355 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,359 Speaker 1: personal but my wife being a two time graduate of 356 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,000 Speaker 1: one of the hbc used this is something that we've 357 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 1: got to be able to continue to work on because 358 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: the condescension that we see from some circles where do 359 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: your right or left does not allow us to really 360 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: bring solutions, but it only creates more divisions. Let me 361 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:10,639 Speaker 1: ask you lastly here in the time we have with you. 362 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: Know you're busy about the the opioid crisis. To aur 363 00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:14,960 Speaker 1: you embarked on a couple of days ago, a two 364 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 1: day two or throughout your district. I know you went 365 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,400 Speaker 1: to Elon University for roundtable. You went to an alcohol 366 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: and drug abuse treatment center. What did folks there say 367 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: to you about what role they think the federal government 368 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 1: should play? Of course we've watched here as Congressman Tom Marino, 369 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: you're colleague in the Capital, has stepped away from from 370 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: consideration to be the drugs are as it's called. What 371 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: did they say about the role the federal government should 372 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: play incurving this crisis. Well, obviously, any time you're dealing 373 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 1: with some of the local even state agencies, funding is 374 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 1: always the concern. Our job is to make sure that 375 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: every dollar from taxpayers that we receive that we're being 376 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,399 Speaker 1: good stewards. But but it's different than talking with people 377 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: who are working in this area. As a people literally 378 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,080 Speaker 1: walking to the journey of addiction. I wish more of 379 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: us are more people would get out there and see 380 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,120 Speaker 1: some of the heartache of the last six years. We've 381 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,680 Speaker 1: gone from seventeen thousand deaths to over sixty thousand deaths 382 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: last year. This is an epidemic proportion. We've got to 383 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: be working on on prevention, We've got to be working 384 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: with people who are walking through. But we've also got 385 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 1: to make sure long term, what is it that we 386 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: do to be able to to offer these people an 387 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: opportunity to get back on track to fulfill as a 388 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 1: person of faith, the very path I feel like God's 389 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,119 Speaker 1: created for Mark Walker great to speak me. That's Congress 390 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: in Mark Walker, the sixth district in North Carolina. Let 391 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,399 Speaker 1: me bring in our our our next guest, and David 392 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,959 Speaker 1: will have more intelligent converse questions than I will end 393 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,920 Speaker 1: to Kenny uh to be direct as a former Prime 394 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 1: Minister of the courageous people of Ireland, who is anybody knows? 395 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,399 Speaker 1: In the Wall Street Rack were the first people to 396 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,360 Speaker 1: really say we gotta be adult, We've got to take 397 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: responsibility for this tobacco of two thousands, seven two eight. 398 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:03,959 Speaker 1: We can talk about the financial aspect. Did you know? 399 00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: And I went back, David, I looked at some of 400 00:20:06,320 --> 00:20:08,679 Speaker 1: Gordon Brown's comments of oh seven oh eight, did you 401 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: know there's a thing called Brexit? Now? I don't know 402 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 1: if you're aware of that, but there it is. And 403 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll get into that. But I've got a 404 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 1: far more important question and a Kenny with us. And 405 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: when I was a kid, we would watch Wide World 406 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: of Sports and we were transfixed by Irish football. You 407 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: you are knee deep in this with Mayo. Is it Mayo? 408 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 1: What do you think of the National Football League in America? 409 00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 1: When the sport you play in Ireland is so tough 410 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: and so visceral. How do you perceive American football. Well, 411 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,440 Speaker 1: first of all, Irish football we call it Gaelic football 412 00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,440 Speaker 1: because you have the association football, which which in ordinary 413 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: man's language of soccer, but the the the Gaili football 414 00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: is played to the highest level on a county basis. 415 00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 1: It's an amateur sport. The fitness level are extraordinary, as 416 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 1: are the skill levels, um. And it's it becomes really 417 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,119 Speaker 1: you know, a passionate existence based on the parishes, on 418 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 1: the teams and other local communities. And then when they 419 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: play for the county, they go to all Ireland level 420 00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: and compete at a very very high and if somebody 421 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: scores a touchdown or whatever, they're not doing all the 422 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:22,240 Speaker 1: fancy dance stuff they're they're Obviously we've had American football 423 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: teams over in Ireland in the last number of years, 424 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 1: Georgia Tech and Boston College, Author Dame and the Navy 425 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,680 Speaker 1: professional teams like that I understand, and they've they've created 426 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: a great excitement and energy. I mean, the team numbers 427 00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 1: are huge as distinct from sting from Gaelic teams um. 428 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,399 Speaker 1: But obviously the teams that did come to Ireland, you know, 429 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: but a sense of great excitement and energy for the 430 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,639 Speaker 1: period there, and they were followed by twenty five Americans, 431 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: which was good for the hospitality sector. We gotta make 432 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: news for Boston one of six one FM, and of 433 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 1: course or serious exem in a small town called salthen 434 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 1: Who gets a bigger turnout Notre Dame or Boston College. 435 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: Um well, I think when the when when we tried 436 00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,439 Speaker 1: to get the two of them together as often as 437 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 1: we could because they created a sense of um of 438 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: unprecedented passion in Ireland. Listen, both colleges, both colleges have 439 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: have have huge following, a huge Irish I asked for 440 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 1: don't ask me the numbers. I couldn't give you. An 441 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: he sounds like a politician, David Sabers from from the fighting. 442 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: I all right, well, let's segue to something lighter here, 443 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: that being the combate over Brexit. And we've certainly heard 444 00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: the degree to which those debates have soured, some David 445 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: Davids saying that there was a deadlock when last they 446 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: met in Brussels. How are you observing all of this 447 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: unfold from where you said? Where do you think things 448 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 1: are headed? Well you know what happened. Obviously, euroskeptics in Britain. 449 00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 1: Prime Minister Cameron said if I win the election, um, 450 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: I give you a referendum. That happened. The referendum was 451 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: lost and he resigned. Was a non binding referenum. So 452 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: Trusa May was lettered as as Prime Minister and she 453 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,239 Speaker 1: gets on with a small majority, finding it difficult, has 454 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: another election, loses that majority is now propped up by 455 00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 1: the Democratic Union's party from Northern Ireland. This is a 456 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: very complicated matter. So so what's going on now is 457 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:09,119 Speaker 1: the process before the big talks, and the process is 458 00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,840 Speaker 1: triggered by the Prime Minster having within the Article Article 459 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: and the letter wanting to leave that's due to take 460 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,639 Speaker 1: place in March. So Michel Barnier is the lead negotiator 461 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 1: on behalf of the European Union and he wants three 462 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,960 Speaker 1: things dealt with before they get downto real business. Those 463 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: three things are one, what is the cost that Britain 464 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,679 Speaker 1: must pay for leaving the European Union club? Secondly, what 465 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: are the rights guaranteed of European citizens living in Britain 466 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 1: and British citizens living in Europe? And thirdly, what are 467 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: you going to do about the question of the only 468 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,120 Speaker 1: land border within the European Union after Britain has left, 469 00:23:47,160 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: and that's through Northern Ireland, which rights are now guaranteed 470 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: under a separate and independent Good Friday Agreement which happened 471 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,959 Speaker 1: twenty years ago, and that has to be preserved at 472 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 1: all costs and will be preserved at all costs. These 473 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,080 Speaker 1: are complicated matters about some that people didn't ever think about. 474 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: But they've got to deal with those three to a 475 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: sufficient progress level before they start talking about trade. What 476 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: does it mean if this goes through, if we see 477 00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: the UK leave the European Union, what does it mean 478 00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,119 Speaker 1: for we, say, a fisherman in Ireland who wants to 479 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: sell his wares to UH to Europe saying might customarily 480 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,919 Speaker 1: stop in the UK the way well, fishing is a 481 00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: complicated issue, more so than most because for Britain to 482 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: leave fully most of the quotas are caught in British waters. 483 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: It would suit Britain to have a hard bridge and 484 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 1: just leave in the morning. But the negotiations on fishing 485 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: have been developed over fifty years and they're like layers 486 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: of a fruit. You just can't to dismantle them. Like that. 487 00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 1: But what it means at the moment, the European Union 488 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: is the market of five million people and Britain is 489 00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: a very important part of that. And it is part 490 00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 1: of the single market you can move capital, goods, services 491 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 1: and people. It is part of the customs union where 492 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: you have external tariffs but not only internally. Now that 493 00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 1: Britain wants to leave those two things and still have 494 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:07,400 Speaker 1: the same response, and that's the problem. You see, there's 495 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,440 Speaker 1: no reason why Britain couldn't be a global power within 496 00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 1: the current European Union, which is evolving and which started 497 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,119 Speaker 1: out as a peace process, the most successful on the planet, 498 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: but which it has to move along with his own agenda. 499 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: So it's it's a real problem here. And until you 500 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,479 Speaker 1: get past those first three base points, you don't ever 501 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,439 Speaker 1: get to where you're going to talk about about real trade. 502 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,639 Speaker 1: And if that continues, politicians are going to have to 503 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: make a decision otherwise you end up in a catastrophic 504 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 1: situation where there's a heart breaks on the border. Mr 505 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 1: Prime Minister is black Wine, I hope I'm pronouncing that right. 506 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: There was a bombing in nineteen seventy for horrific bombing. 507 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: What do you envision is the best outcome for Ireland 508 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 1: in the United Kingdom at that border of Black Wine. 509 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: What do you envision in sixteen looking like. Well, if 510 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: you drive from Dublin to Belfast, now you drive through 511 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 1: black line. There is no border, and that's operated since 512 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,359 Speaker 1: the Good Friday Agreement, and that's what we intend to keep. 513 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: If you brought back what you call a hard border, 514 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 1: customs posts and all of that, what would happen. You'd 515 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: bring back sectarianism, and you would have you'd have untold trouble. 516 00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 1: And we're not going back there. There were three thousand 517 00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:19,920 Speaker 1: people bombed, murdered and maimed in that period. America was 518 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: a great help to Ireland when President Clinton sent over 519 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,600 Speaker 1: George Mitchell and after five years worth, the Good Friday 520 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,919 Speaker 1: Agreement was signed. It's an internationally binding agreement, lodged in 521 00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: the United Nations, accepted by America, by Europe, by Great 522 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: Britain and by Ireland. So that's sacrosanct and putting a 523 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: hard border on the top of that would be absolutely 524 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,240 Speaker 1: catastrophic and it won't happen. This is a political problem 525 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,200 Speaker 1: and for those who were advocating, you know that we 526 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: should leave this is a matter that should have been 527 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 1: considered far more carefully in the run up of the referendum. 528 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 1: But it's a real it's a real issue, and it's 529 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,639 Speaker 1: going to require a unique situation and a unique solution, 530 00:26:58,119 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 1: and there were fewer own who can tell you what 531 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: that is. David jump in here with the I have 532 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 1: like eight questions and speech you and I have to 533 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,080 Speaker 1: go to Dublin to continue this conversation with the Prime minister. 534 00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:08,920 Speaker 1: But David jump in with your observation. You've got a 535 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: different direction here from my last question. That is, we've 536 00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 1: seen that the Prime Minister of Greece travel to Washington 537 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,880 Speaker 1: to meet with the President United States, and I want 538 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,399 Speaker 1: to ask you just what it's like to be the 539 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: leader of a country meeting with the leader of another country. 540 00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 1: We hear a lot about the relationship that one leader 541 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: develops with with another in such a short time frame. 542 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: How do you get a sense of who the other 543 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,640 Speaker 1: leader is? How do you develop warmth, developer relationship. Polities 544 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: is all as about people who governments, about making decisions. 545 00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: The Greek prime minister is right. I was actually one 546 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,639 Speaker 1: of the first prime ministers to have the opportunity to 547 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:37,879 Speaker 1: meet President Trump in the White House. Um, it's the 548 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: office that you talk about in the importance of it. Obviously, 549 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 1: you know, the President of the United States the most 550 00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: powerful office on the planet, but it's it's one that 551 00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,880 Speaker 1: doesn't carry all of the authority that people might imagine. 552 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: The President has responsibility over, you know, foreign affairs, foreign matters, 553 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 1: foreign policy, the Pentagon, and so on. But when you 554 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:58,240 Speaker 1: look for money, you've got to deal with the Congress 555 00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,680 Speaker 1: and the houses of the Houses of Parliament. So your 556 00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:05,920 Speaker 1: American Constitution, the American courts, the American political system all 557 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,800 Speaker 1: have distinct functions and the impact in one way or 558 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: the other on the presidency. But I think it's very 559 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 1: important for Europe to be over in America very often 560 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:17,600 Speaker 1: and America to be in Europe very often to understand 561 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,120 Speaker 1: the mechanics of this. Europe and America were always very 562 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: close allies, the Marshall Plan, World War Two, all of 563 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,760 Speaker 1: these things, the rebuilding of a peace process in Europe, 564 00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: which has now lasted for sixty years. There is no 565 00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 1: reason why we shouldn't be able to continue this. In 566 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 1: the interests of the common humanagement, as we share, we'd 567 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: like to continue this conversation and to Kenney. Thank you 568 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: so much. He as a former Prime Minister of Ireland. 569 00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:55,280 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 570 00:28:55,360 --> 00:29:00,160 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or which over 571 00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene, 572 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you 573 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 1: could always catch US World one. I'm Bloomberg Radio