1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: On this episode of the News World. On Tuesday, President 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: Putin met with Special Envoy Steve Wikoff and Jared Kushner 3 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:16,759 Speaker 1: for nearly five hours to discuss the ongoing plan to 4 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: end the war in Ukraine. During the talks, mister Putin 5 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 1: went through the US proposals that the Kremlin had received 6 00:00:24,800 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 1: in four documents head of the meeting here to discuss 7 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: what's next in the peace negotiations. I'm really pleased to 8 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:36,200 Speaker 1: welcome my guest, George B. B He's Director of Grand 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,160 Speaker 1: Strategy at the Quincy Institute. He spent more than two 10 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:44,320 Speaker 1: decades in government as an intelligence analyst, diplomat, and policy advisor, 11 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 1: including as Director of the CIAS Russian Analysis, director of 12 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: the CIA's Open Source Center, and as a staff advisor 13 00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: on Russian matters the Vice President Cheney. His book The 14 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: Russia Trap, how our shadow war was Russia could spiral 15 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: in the nuclear catastrophe, warned how the US and Russia 16 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 1: could stumble into a dangerous military confrontation. George, welcome, and 17 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 1: thank you for joining me again on Newsworld. 18 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: It's my pleasure, thanks for having me. 19 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 1: Let's start with the most recent news. Steve Witkoff and 20 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,520 Speaker 1: Jared Kushner just met with Vladimir Putin. It was Witkoff's 21 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 1: sixth meeting, but the first time Kushner has joined. This 22 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,440 Speaker 1: is also the first in person discussion between Putin and 23 00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: Trump's team since the Alaska summon. What do you think 24 00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: is the significance of this meeting. 25 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 2: Well, it's clear at this point that we've gotten very 26 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: serious about finding a compromise settlement to the war in Ukraine, 27 00:01:59,360 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 2: and that neither side is going to get all the 28 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: things that it wants. Both sides are going to have 29 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 2: to make some concessions, and I think we're pretty close 30 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,200 Speaker 2: now to a point where Ukraine's core interests can be addressed. 31 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 2: And I think the biggest ones that they have are 32 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 2: to ensure that they can survive as a sovereign, independent state, 33 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 2: that they have assurances that their security concerns about a 34 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:28,079 Speaker 2: Russian reinvasion will be addressed as part of this settlement, 35 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: and that they can rebuild the country, recover from the 36 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 2: devastation that this war has inflicted on Ukraine, and look 37 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:41,000 Speaker 2: forward to some sort of prosperous future. So that is 38 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 2: a part of this deal, and I think the Russians 39 00:02:43,960 --> 00:02:48,920 Speaker 2: understand that unless those concerns are addressed that Ukraine has. 40 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:50,960 Speaker 2: We're not going to get a compromise, We're not going 41 00:02:51,040 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 2: to get end of the war, and they want one. 42 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 2: And that's a part of this that you don't really 43 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 2: hear a lot about in the public debate. But Russia's 44 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:03,760 Speaker 2: concerns in this are less about Ukraine and more about 45 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 2: what they perceive as threats posed by the United States 46 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: and NATO to Russia. Russia's biggest issues in this war 47 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 2: are also security. They want to make sure that Russia 48 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 2: is not going to be threatened by the prospect of 49 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: US or NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory that can 50 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:33,519 Speaker 2: be used in some way to threaten Russia, either politically 51 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 2: or militarily, to strike Russia's strategic nuclear infrastructure in some way. 52 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,880 Speaker 2: So what they're looking at here is not so much 53 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 2: how do I compromise with Ukraine, but how do we 54 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 2: compromise with the United States, so that our concerns about 55 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 2: the military threats posed by NATO and by the US 56 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: military are a part of this settlement. So what I 57 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 2: I think has been going on is the United States, 58 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: its negotiators have been engaging with both Ukraine and Russia 59 00:04:08,920 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: to find a way to address both of these core 60 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: interests that the Ukrainians and Russians have, and I think 61 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:20,840 Speaker 2: we're close. I think we're zeroing in on a compromise 62 00:04:21,440 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 2: that both sides are not going to like, but they 63 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:29,839 Speaker 2: will recognize that it will ensure that their most important 64 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,960 Speaker 2: interests are addressed. And I think that's what the focus 65 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:36,280 Speaker 2: of these talks really is on right now. 66 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 1: One Putin talks about the fact that Ukraine is not 67 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: a legitimate state and that his real goal is to 68 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 1: eliminate Ukraine and guarantee that it could never function as 69 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:52,920 Speaker 1: a part of NATO or any would be a threat. 70 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: Do you think that's mostly blaff or do you think 71 00:04:56,360 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 1: he means it well. 72 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:02,679 Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of misunderstanding surrounding this question 73 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:06,720 Speaker 2: of whether Putin regards Ukraine as a legitimate state or not. 74 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: On the one hand, he has argued repeatedly that Ukraine 75 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: and its current borders, its current condition is something of 76 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 2: a historical accident, that it is the result of conquest 77 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 2: wars repeatedly over the centuries, the breakup of empires, one 78 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 2: of which was the Soviet Empire, of course, but another 79 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 2: was the Austro Hungarian Empire, and of course, when you're 80 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 2: talking about Crimea, there's also the prospect of Turkey and 81 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 2: its involvement in all of this. So it is a 82 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 2: complicated history. And I think what Putin is saying here 83 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 2: is we have wound up with an artificial state that 84 00:05:51,120 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 2: has been sewn together from the remnants of these old empires, 85 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: and it can't continue to exist if it continues to 86 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:06,039 Speaker 2: be the object of a geopolitical tug of war between 87 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: NATO and Russia. We're going to have to find a 88 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:13,560 Speaker 2: way to address that bigger geopolitical context, or Ukraine itself 89 00:06:13,600 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 2: will come apart. It won't continue to exist in its 90 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 2: current form. Now, that's something he's been warning about since 91 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 2: the early two thousands. He had conversations with Bill Clinton 92 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,239 Speaker 2: and George W. Bush about this warning about what would 93 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:34,039 Speaker 2: happen if the United States and NATO tried to pull 94 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 2: Ukraine into the Alliance. And his warning essentially was, this 95 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: country will come apart. It will break apart at the 96 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 2: seams because it can't hold together under that kind of 97 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 2: geopolitical competition. It's going to have to be a neutral state. Now, 98 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 2: Putin has never said that Ukraine as a neutral state 99 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 2: should not exist, or that Russia will not reckonize Ukraine 100 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 2: as a neutral state. I think he's been careful to 101 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 2: say in that kind of geopolitical context, Russia can live 102 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 2: with an independent Ukraine. Now. Does he want to have 103 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 2: very strong influence over Ukraine? Absolutely? Has he decided, given 104 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 2: the geopolitical tug of war that is going on over 105 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 2: the past couple of decades that the dawn Boss region, 106 00:07:27,280 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 2: which is largely populated by Russian speakers, Russian Orthodox believers 107 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 2: and has a history of association with Russia in various forms, 108 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 2: has he concluded that that should be part of Russia, 109 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 2: that it can no longer viably be part of a 110 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: Ukrainian independent state. Absolutely, he has, but that wasn't his plan. 111 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: A What people forget in all of this was after 112 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 2: the Maidan Revolution in twenty fourteen, the Russians assisted a 113 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 2: separate movement in the Donbas region that essentially said we 114 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: want either independence from Ukraine or annexation from Russia. But 115 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 2: Putin refused to recognize them as independent, and he refused 116 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: to annex that region for eight years. And there's a 117 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: very good reason why he didn't want to break that 118 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:32,719 Speaker 2: part of Ukraine off from the rest of Ukraine, and 119 00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:36,679 Speaker 2: that is that this part of Ukraine did not want 120 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 2: to be in the NATO alliance, and Putin wanted a reliable, 121 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 2: domestic Ukrainian group that would oppose that kind of move, 122 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 2: that would serve as a counterweight to parts of western 123 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 2: Ukraine that were very enthusiastic about integrating Ukraine into NATO. 124 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 2: And Putin took a lot of criticism inside Russia for 125 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 2: his refusal to recognize Don Boss independence or annex them. 126 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 2: A lot of the hardline nationalist patriots in Russia thought 127 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: that Putin was too weak, not willing to protect these 128 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,360 Speaker 2: as they saw them, compatriots in the Don Boss, and 129 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: too eager to seek some sort of compromise with the West. 130 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 2: They thought he was essentially a Germanist, not somebody that 131 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 2: was sufficiently hardline Russian patriotic. So all of that, I 132 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:40,760 Speaker 2: think is a very useful historical context to understand where 133 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 2: the Russians are on this. This war that they launched, 134 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,320 Speaker 2: this full scale invasion of Ukraine that they launched in 135 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, is not primarily about acquiring land or 136 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: conquering all of Ukraine or bringing it as a whole 137 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:03,439 Speaker 2: into a rebuilt Russian Empire. It is largely driven by 138 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 2: security concerns. Their belief that Ukraine was over time steadily 139 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 2: becoming more and more of a direct military and intelligence 140 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:19,400 Speaker 2: partner to the United States and NATO, and they were 141 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:26,559 Speaker 2: seeing military infrastructure and military cooperation deepening. And the worry 142 00:10:26,640 --> 00:10:31,200 Speaker 2: in Russia was if those trends continued, that would reach 143 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,840 Speaker 2: a point in a few years where the only way 144 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,959 Speaker 2: Russia could prevent Ukraine from actually becoming a member of 145 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 2: the NATO Alliance would be to fight NATO itself, which 146 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 2: they were not willing to do. They thought the window 147 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:51,320 Speaker 2: was closing that if they waited, this would no longer 148 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 2: be Russia against Ukraine, this would be Russia against the 149 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 2: United States and its allies. And that was a prospect 150 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,400 Speaker 2: that I think they found very threatening and they wanted 151 00:11:01,440 --> 00:11:05,559 Speaker 2: to preclude that. So all that tells me is if 152 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 2: we're going to get out of the mess that we're 153 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 2: in and end this war, we're going to have to 154 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 2: address the course security concerns that the Russians have as 155 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 2: well as the core security concerns that the Ukrainians have. 156 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 2: And that's really the trick. That's a balancing act that 157 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 2: US negotiators are I think making some progress in carrying out. 158 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 1: For Ukraine to retain enough military capability that you wouldn't 159 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 1: have two or three or four years from now a 160 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: sort of third Russian assault. If you count what happened 161 00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 1: in for Team as sort of the first wave, this 162 00:12:02,640 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 1: is the second wave. See, the Russian has been pretty 163 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 1: clear that they will not accept a Ukraine strong enough 164 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: to defend itself. 165 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 2: Well, I'm not sure that's true. Now. The devil's in 166 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:19,359 Speaker 2: the details on that, and that's obviously a key aspect 167 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: of these negotiations. Now. At the Alaska summit, in the 168 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 2: concluding press conference that Putin and President Trump had, Putin 169 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 2: did say, look, we understand that Ukraine has security concerns 170 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 2: here that have to be addressed, and he went on 171 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 2: to say, and naturally, we are willing to discuss that. 172 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 2: So now that by itself doesn't say exactly what the 173 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 2: Russians are willing to live with. But what I would 174 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: imagine here if you go back to the Istanbul negotiations 175 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,640 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two between Russia and Ukraine that was 176 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 2: meet by several different mediators, one of which was the Turks. 177 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:10,480 Speaker 2: The Russians put down on paper their demands for limits 178 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 2: on the Ukrainian military, and the kinds of things they're 179 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 2: concerned about are size, how large is that military? And 180 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 2: the Russian demand at that time was for a military 181 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 2: of eighty five thousand troops as a standing peacetime army, 182 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 2: which is ridiculous. That's not a military that can defend 183 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 2: itself against Russian in any way. But they also wanted 184 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:40,280 Speaker 2: to cap on long range strike missiles, and that term 185 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 2: long range is not a precise term. But now you're 186 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:51,240 Speaker 2: in a discussion over what kind of range limitations might 187 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 2: the Ukrainians agree to in its ability to strike deep 188 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,200 Speaker 2: into Russian territory, And so that's a negotiation. You know, 189 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 2: one man's defensive capability is another man's offensive capability. So 190 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 2: that is going to be an issue that will require 191 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 2: some hard negotiating. But if you look at the so 192 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: called twenty eight point plan that got leaked to the 193 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 2: media a few weeks ago, that envisioned a cap on 194 00:14:19,880 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 2: the Ukrainian military of six hundred thousand men, which quite 195 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 2: honestly is not a cap at all on Ukraine. They 196 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: don't have the population base or the economic wherewithal to 197 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 2: sustain a peacetime army of that size. That's many times 198 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:44,040 Speaker 2: larger than any European NATO ally the United States, larger 199 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: than the BRITZ by several orders of magnitude, larger than 200 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 2: the German military very expensively maintain. The Ukrainians couldn't do it. 201 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 2: So that figure, I think, is an indication that things 202 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 2: are moving. And this question of the size of the 203 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 2: Ukrainian military and what qualitative caps might be involved in 204 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 2: this is under discussion right now and this is going 205 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 2: to be a central issue. Are the Russians willing to 206 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 2: compromise on this? My guess is yes, we're going to 207 00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 2: find out here. But they have engaged with the Ukrainians 208 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 2: on this question before, they didn't reach a satisfactory compromise. 209 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,240 Speaker 2: The Ukrainian proposal in April of twenty twenty two was 210 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 2: for a military cap of two hundred and fifty thousand, 211 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 2: so we're now many times greater than that in the 212 00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 2: current numbers being discussed. But this is something that the 213 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 2: Russians understand they're going to have to compromise on. My 214 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 2: guess is that we can find some numbers here that 215 00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: are large enough that the Ukrainians can defense themselves, but 216 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 2: not so large that the Russians feel that their strategic 217 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 2: capabilities are threatened in some way. And they have of 218 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 2: course an eye not on Ukraine itself, but on Ukraine 219 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 2: as an element of the military threat posed by the 220 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,040 Speaker 2: United States and Europe towards Russia. That's the balance they're 221 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 2: looking at. So that's why they want to talk to 222 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 2: the United States. Really, the Russians think that this is 223 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 2: really a negotiation with the United States over the European 224 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 2: security order, over the threats that they perceive pointed at 225 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 2: them from the United States and NATO. 226 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: Do you think that Putin and his team were shocked 227 00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:47,160 Speaker 1: when they could not get. 228 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: To Kiev, Well, yeah, I do. Their military plan really 229 00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 2: was to launch a lightning strike that would seize the 230 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 2: airport outside of Kiev and in so doing force the 231 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 2: Ukrainian leadership essentially to flee and then allow some sort 232 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 2: of puppet regime friendly towards Russia to step in, and 233 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 2: that in turn wouldn't require a long war and they 234 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 2: could get this over with and then they're in a 235 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 2: position to dictate the terms of some kind of settlement. 236 00:17:24,240 --> 00:17:28,159 Speaker 2: And that failed, they basically put all their chips on 237 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:35,199 Speaker 2: that bid to seize the airport in institute regime change. 238 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,879 Speaker 2: And what happened, of course, was the United States the 239 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,920 Speaker 2: CIA got a hold of Russia's war plan. We knew 240 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 2: exactly what they were going to do, you know, we 241 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 2: knew that it was going to be Colonel Mustard in 242 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 2: the library with the lead pipe at noon on Thursday, 243 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 2: and we told the Ukrainians, here's what's coming now. The Ukrainians, 244 00:17:56,600 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 2: of course, were skeptical initially and kind of went a 245 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:03,200 Speaker 2: you know, what do you know? But they, after a 246 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,240 Speaker 2: little bit of discussion, understood, yeah, this is serious, and yeah, 247 00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:11,480 Speaker 2: we better prepare. So that made the difference here between 248 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:15,440 Speaker 2: success and failure for the Russians. The Ukrainians were ready 249 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:19,760 Speaker 2: for them. They defeated that attempt to seize the airport, 250 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 2: and then the Russians were in trouble because they had 251 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 2: not done the kind of planning that they needed to do. 252 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 2: What if Plan A fails, you know, what do we do? 253 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 2: What's the backup plan? And that threw them into disarray 254 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 2: quite honestly, and led to some major changes in Russia's approach. 255 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 2: You know, we're living with several years of attritional warfare 256 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:46,199 Speaker 2: that have flowed from that. 257 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 1: Do you think that it would have been politically impossible 258 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,679 Speaker 1: at home for Putin? Pru said, well, that didn't work. 259 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:56,920 Speaker 1: Let's go back to the status quo ended. 260 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 2: I don't think it was so much politically impossible as 261 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: it was strategically impossible. This is an issue that you know, 262 00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 2: a lot of people in the West don't understand, but 263 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:14,600 Speaker 2: the Russians view the prospect of US or NATO military 264 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:20,360 Speaker 2: infrastructure in Ukraine as an existential threat, as something that 265 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 2: threatens the very viability of the Russian Federation. So this 266 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,480 Speaker 2: is not a nice to do for them. This is 267 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 2: a must do. They don't think they have a choice, 268 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 2: and a lot of Americans don't grasp this. They look 269 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 2: at this war as an elective, as an ambition, as 270 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,840 Speaker 2: something that the Russians would like to do, because they're 271 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 2: looking over at Ukraine and saying, Hey, that territory should 272 00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 2: be ours, that country should be in our sphere of influence. 273 00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 2: Let's go make that happen. And as a result, our 274 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:02,679 Speaker 2: approach to that has been well, let's raise the costs 275 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:08,000 Speaker 2: of this invasion. Let's show Russia that the benefits of 276 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 2: this ambition are far outweighed by the costs and damages 277 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:19,520 Speaker 2: that this invasion is doing to Russia economically, etc. Diplomatically, 278 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 2: Let's crank up the pressure on the economy, Let's turn 279 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 2: Russia into an international diplomatic pariah. Let's expand the Natal 280 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 2: alliance and show putin that all the things that he 281 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 2: wants actually he can't get. And then he'll look at 282 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,959 Speaker 2: the costs and benefits and say, yeah, it's not worth it. 283 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 2: It's just too costly. Let's end this invasion. And that 284 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 2: idea really animated the Biden administration's approach to this, and 285 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 2: I think it was a fundamental misunderstanding of Russia's perceptions 286 00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 2: of its own interests and what motivated this invasion. The 287 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 2: Russians thought their back was against the wall, that the 288 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:09,760 Speaker 2: prospect of NATO being in Ukraine was so threatening to 289 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 2: them that they felt they had to do something. The 290 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,679 Speaker 2: West made clear that we weren't willing to strike a 291 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,800 Speaker 2: diplomatic bargain over this. We essentially said no, Russia doesn't 292 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 2: get a voice in whether NATO is in Ukraine or 293 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: whether Ukraine is in NATO. That is a sacred, sovereign 294 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 2: decision for the Ukrainians to make. And the Russians don't 295 00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 2: get a veto over that. And the Russians reaction to 296 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,720 Speaker 2: that was Okay, you know, we hear you, but if 297 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 2: you're not willing to discuss this and compromise at the 298 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 2: diplomatic table, we will exercise our veto over this on 299 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: the battlefield. Now. The only way you're going to fix 300 00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 2: a problem like that, which is, you know what international 301 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 2: relations theorists call a security dilemma. You know, a situation 302 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 2: where one can tree takes steps that it believes enhances 303 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 2: its own security, but another state finds those same steps threatening, 304 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 2: so you get into this escalatory cycle of action reaction. 305 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 2: This is much like what happened in World War One, right. 306 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 2: The only way you get out of a situation like 307 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:21,439 Speaker 2: that is through a diplomatic process, some compromise where you 308 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:27,439 Speaker 2: address both side security concerns in ways that don't cross 309 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 2: the line into being too threatening to the other. That's 310 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 2: really the kind of problem we're dealing with, and I 311 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:38,880 Speaker 2: think had the Biden administration approached this like that kind 312 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:43,520 Speaker 2: of problem, we probably wouldn't be in the confrontation that 313 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 2: we're in right now. There is still time to get 314 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 2: out of it, and I think that's exactly what the 315 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 2: Trump administration is doing. I think it recognizes what has 316 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,199 Speaker 2: to be done. And now the question is can we 317 00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 2: exercise the kind of statesmanship and diplomatic skill that will 318 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 2: be necessary to strike this kind of compromise and address 319 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 2: all of the details that have to be addressed in 320 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,239 Speaker 2: this and the devil will be in the details and all. 321 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 2: This is not an easy negotiation, not something that you 322 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 2: can do very quickly. Is they have found out over 323 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 2: the past year. But I think we're really getting close 324 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 2: and we shall see. 325 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:47,640 Speaker 1: Part of the estimate by some Americans and Europeans has 326 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: been that the inn a war of attrition that the 327 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,760 Speaker 1: number of people putin is losing is so significant given 328 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 1: their already existing demographic challenge of not having enough young 329 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: in your judgment, can he sustain this kind of trench 330 00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,440 Speaker 1: warfare for three or four more years? He has to? 331 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:11,639 Speaker 2: Well, you know, there's the old joke about the campers 332 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 2: to guys that are out, you know, in the back country, 333 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:18,240 Speaker 2: pitch their tent and they see a bear coming, and 334 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 2: one of the guys starts putting on his shoes, and 335 00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 2: his campmate says, what are you doing. You can't outrun 336 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,639 Speaker 2: a bear? And the guy says, I don't have to 337 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 2: outrun a bear, I just have to outrun you, And 338 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 2: that analogy I think is absolutely right here. This is 339 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 2: not a question of ken Russia sustain this kind of 340 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 2: warfare absolutely for as long as necessary. The question is 341 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 2: can it sustain it longer than the Ukrainians can? And 342 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 2: I think we're already seeing the answer to that question. 343 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 2: The Russians are meeting their monthly recruitment goals and even 344 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 2: exceeding them in many respects. Yes, they're taking a lot 345 00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,160 Speaker 2: of loss, but they are more than replacing those losses 346 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 2: on the battlefield. Their numbers are going up. They outnumber 347 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 2: the Ukrainians along the line of contact by several multiples 348 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 2: right now. And the Ukrainians are not meeting their monthly 349 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 2: recruitment goals. They are falling short. The rates of desertion 350 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 2: are going up rather significantly. So the question is not 351 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 2: can Russia sustain this for many more years? The question 352 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 2: really is how long can the Ukrainians sustain this word 353 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 2: of attrition? And I think the answer is not for 354 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:42,760 Speaker 2: much longer. You know, this is an intangible question. A 355 00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,440 Speaker 2: lot of this has to do with optimism and morale 356 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 2: and resilience in determination. But those qualities are not infinite, 357 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 2: and there are signs that the Ukrainians are reaching the 358 00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,359 Speaker 2: exhaustion point. And what I'm hearing from my contacts in 359 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 2: Ukraine is that the vast majority of Ukrainians want this 360 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,960 Speaker 2: war done. They're ready for a compromise. They're not willing 361 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 2: to surrender, they're not willing to capitulate, but they are 362 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 2: interested in a compromise way to end this war. And 363 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 2: I think that provides Zelensky with both an opportunity and 364 00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,919 Speaker 2: an incentive to find a compromise way forward here. So 365 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 2: I think the time is right now inside Ukraine. The 366 00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,440 Speaker 2: other part of this is the corruption scandal, which provides 367 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: Zeleski with a major political incentive to change the narrative 368 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:42,159 Speaker 2: inside the country away from corruption and graft and towards peace. 369 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,399 Speaker 2: And I think that's part of why we're seeing some 370 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:45,360 Speaker 2: progress right now. 371 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 1: Do you think it's plausible that they will give up 372 00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 1: the Dawn Bass, even the areas that the Russians have 373 00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 1: not conquered. 374 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,959 Speaker 2: Well, I don't think there's any prospect that the Ukrainians 375 00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:01,959 Speaker 2: are going to legally seed that territory to recognize it 376 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 2: as Russian and not Ukrainian. I think the most one 377 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:09,680 Speaker 2: can hope for is the Ukrainians will say, we are 378 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 2: not going to see the territory, but we will also 379 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 2: agree that its future status will be determined politically and 380 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 2: not by force, not by war on the battlefield. A 381 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 2: lot of wars have ended in just that kind of 382 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 2: pragmatic compromise. Now, the next question is will they withdraw 383 00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:36,959 Speaker 2: their forces from parts of Dunyetsk that they now hold, 384 00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 2: and that I think is going to be the focus 385 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,120 Speaker 2: of these discussions in a lot of ways. That's another 386 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 2: core issue, and what the twenty eight point plan envisioned 387 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,679 Speaker 2: was I think a fairly pragmatic and creative compromise on this. 388 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 2: It would not demand that the Ukrainians say, Okay, yeah, 389 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 2: the Donyetsk is yours and we recognize that, but it 390 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:07,439 Speaker 2: would allow for a withdrawal and not a Russian military 391 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: occupation of the parts that the Ukrainians had withdrawn from. 392 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 2: In other words, this would become a demilitarized zone under 393 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 2: some sort of international supervision that would allow the Russians 394 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 2: to say, hey, this is our territory. The Ukrainians could 395 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 2: also say, no, that's our territory. But neither one would 396 00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:34,439 Speaker 2: have its forces in that part of disputed Dounyetsk, and 397 00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,480 Speaker 2: we could move forward pragnatically on that and say, Okay, 398 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 2: this is now the basis for a ceasefire. The Russians 399 00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 2: can maintain the fiction that they own all of this. 400 00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,600 Speaker 2: Nobody else is going to recognize that legally, but we 401 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:54,800 Speaker 2: will all just pragnatically say we're going to move forward 402 00:28:55,000 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 2: on ending this fighting and leave the negotiation over the 403 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 2: future status of this and much the way the United 404 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 2: States did with the Baltic States under Soviet rule. Every 405 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 2: US map produced during the Cold War had a little 406 00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 2: box in it that said, the United States government does 407 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 2: not recognize the incorporation of Estonio Laffian Lithuania into the 408 00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:22,959 Speaker 2: Soviet Union. But that didn't prevent us from having a 409 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 2: diplomatic relationship with the Soviet Union addressing the many multitude 410 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,720 Speaker 2: of security and other issues that we had to deal 411 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:31,280 Speaker 2: with with them. 412 00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:35,000 Speaker 1: One last thing on the question of the Dawnbos, which 413 00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: is if they will not accept any NATO. When you 414 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:44,320 Speaker 1: talk about somebody being there maybe as a guarantur, who 415 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: do you imagine would be acceptable to the Russians as 416 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,200 Speaker 1: a guaranty? They certainly don't want us, and they certainly 417 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: don't want the rest of NATO. 418 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 2: Well, here you have to make a distinction between what 419 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,760 Speaker 2: I would call a deterrence force and a piece keeping force. 420 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 2: Peacekeeping force, monitors, a ceasefire line, ensures that there is 421 00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 2: a separation of armies, that there is a demilitarized zone, 422 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 2: that it is not violated. That's the kind of thing 423 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:19,880 Speaker 2: that an international organization can handle, the United Nations, the OSCEE, 424 00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 2: and the job of that kind of force is not 425 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:29,080 Speaker 2: to serve as a deterrent to Russian reinvasion. It's not 426 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 2: meant to be a combat force. Now, a lot of 427 00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 2: people when they're talking about this, conflate this question of 428 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:42,080 Speaker 2: a deterrence force a combat force, a trip wire that 429 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,440 Speaker 2: would be on Ukrainian soil whose purpose would be to 430 00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 2: fight against the Russians should they be tempted to reinvade. 431 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 2: That's not something the Russians are going to agree to. 432 00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: They're not going to say, yeah, sure, has put a 433 00:30:56,000 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: combat force on Ukrainian territory that would have the purpose 434 00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 2: of fighting against us. If we think maybe we want 435 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,480 Speaker 2: we want to advance our position at some point years 436 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 2: down the road, what I think they will agree to 437 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 2: is some sort of peacekeeping force, and that's going to 438 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 2: have to be under some sort of international supervision. 439 00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:21,480 Speaker 1: I don't know whether President Trump read your book The 440 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,680 Speaker 1: Russia Trap, how our shadow war with Russia could spiral 441 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:30,360 Speaker 1: into nuclear catasity, but I have a distinct sense that 442 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 1: somehow over the last eight years or nine years, he 443 00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: got the understanding of how truly catastrophic a nuclear war 444 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:46,200 Speaker 1: would be, and that he is bounded at one level 445 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,200 Speaker 1: from putting too much pressure on Putin because he doesn't 446 00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: want to run a risk of Putin starting with tattoo 447 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 1: on Luke's and then who knows how the escalation latter works. 448 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 1: Do you have the same sense that, in fact, if 449 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: really puts into a corner, put would be capable of 450 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: at least going to limited nuclear weapons, and that it 451 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 1: is a threat that should be a part of our calculus. 452 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do. I've mentioned that I think this war 453 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,960 Speaker 2: for Russia is existential. Then yes, you're going to use 454 00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 2: a nuclear arsenal. If that becomes the ultimate guaranteur that 455 00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,720 Speaker 2: you're not going to be destroy or threatened or face 456 00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 2: that kind of threat. That's obviously not plan A for 457 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 2: the Russians. That would be hugely problematic for all kinds 458 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 2: of reasons for them. But here I think John Kennedy's 459 00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,760 Speaker 2: admonition after the Cuban missile crisis is very apt. He 460 00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:46,280 Speaker 2: said the big lesson of that crisis was don't put 461 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 2: a nuclear superpower in a position where it faces a 462 00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:54,040 Speaker 2: choice between humiliation and nuclear weapons use. And I think 463 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:58,719 Speaker 2: President Trump has certainly internalized that advice, and that is 464 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 2: clear one of the considerations that he has in saying, 465 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 2: how do we get ourselves out of this situation and 466 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 2: what kind of leverage do we have to apply here? 467 00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 2: And you know, I think he understands that in a negotiation, 468 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,280 Speaker 2: you get farther with, you know, a smile and a 469 00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,440 Speaker 2: gun than you do with just smile. You know, he 470 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:23,280 Speaker 2: knows that there has to be pressure on Russia, but 471 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:27,000 Speaker 2: you have to be careful about how far you go, 472 00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:31,840 Speaker 2: because you could risk kicking off some sort of escalatory 473 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 2: spiral where people feel like their humiliation is at play 474 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,640 Speaker 2: in some way and things could start to get out 475 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:45,200 Speaker 2: of control. And that's not an escalation ladder we want 476 00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 2: to start climbing up. 477 00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,200 Speaker 1: In my opinion, I have the greatest desire to make 478 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: sure we avoid nuclear war. I think people generally have 479 00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 1: no idea how bad it is. 480 00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. We do have to bear in mind 481 00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 2: that this is a real thrall. We can't be complacent 482 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 2: about it, and there's nothing else more important to American security. 483 00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,480 Speaker 1: George, I want to thank you for joining me again. 484 00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: It's always educational. You do remarkable work. Our listeners can 485 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: follow the work you're doing as Director of Grand Strategy 486 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:21,800 Speaker 1: at Quincy I nst dot org. I really look forward 487 00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 1: to talking with you again in the future. 488 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,359 Speaker 2: Great well, thank you for having one. 489 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,560 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, George Baby. Newtsworld is produced 490 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:36,960 Speaker 1: by Gangrishtreet sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsei Sloan. 491 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 1: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 492 00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley special thanks to a team 493 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,799 Speaker 1: at ginistreet sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope 494 00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 1: you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with 495 00:34:51,280 --> 00:34:54,480 Speaker 1: five stars and give us a review so others can 496 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 1: learn what it's all about. Join me on substat at 497 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:06,800 Speaker 1: ginistree sixty dot net. Language This is news World, m