1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: Thank you, no half shure. Hello America. I may be 2 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,840 Speaker 1: klobasher and I will beat Donald Trump. And thanks to you, 3 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: a campaign that sunset shouldn't be here at all has 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: shown that we are here to stay. We just heard 5 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: from the first two of fifty states, two of them. 6 00:00:21,440 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: Not all the nation, not half the nation, not a 7 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 1: quarter of the nation, not ten percent. All right, come 8 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:39,560 Speaker 1: from mass the opening bell on this episode of Newts World. 9 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:43,479 Speaker 1: This week, we watched the Democratic primary upset in New Hampshire, 10 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,760 Speaker 1: with Bernie Sanders winning, Pete budda judge, coming in second, 11 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: and Amy klobuch Are coming in third, leaving many to 12 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: wonder what the future holds for Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren. 13 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: Joe Biden has had a number of gaffs along the way, 14 00:00:58,760 --> 00:01:02,319 Speaker 1: including his remarked a college student last Sunday calling her 15 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,720 Speaker 1: a lying, dog faced pony soldier, that have led to 16 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: his downfall. Some speculate he may bounce back in South Carolina, 17 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: but I doubt it. I've known him for many years. 18 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:17,119 Speaker 1: This is his third presidential race, and at seventy seven 19 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,839 Speaker 1: years old, I don't think he has the comeback kid 20 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: and him the wild card in this presidential race is 21 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: the former Mayor of New York City, Michael Bloomberg. He's 22 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: already spent three hundred million dollars on media. Bloomberg is 23 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: worth almost sixty two billion dollars, so spending a couple 24 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: millions to blanket both TV and digital media has no 25 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 1: impact in his personal finances. He has the ability to 26 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: run a presidential race without raising a dime, and some 27 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: would even say to buy the election. Given the extraordinary 28 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 1: nature of the twenty twenty election, will continue to cover it. 29 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: This is the first in a series of podcast episodes 30 00:01:55,600 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: about election twenty twenty. Every presidential race is unique, and 31 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: you'll know afterwards what the particular patterns were, but you 32 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: don't really know going in. People tend to forget that 33 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: Bill Clinton didn't actually win New Hampshire. He just did 34 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: a lot better than people expected, and so he got 35 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 1: to be called the comeback kid, a term which is 36 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:28,359 Speaker 1: now being applied Damie clobsher and still hard to understand 37 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: why she's the comeback kid, excepted the news media likes 38 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: her and they like having fancy things to say about people. 39 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: The fact is that it was in New Hampshire that 40 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 1: began to be obvious how really powerful Donald Trump was 41 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: going to be. It was in New Hampshire that all 42 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,800 Speaker 1: of a sudden Hillary had a huge problem and was 43 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: faced with the reality that she might not be able 44 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:53,919 Speaker 1: to put the race away as quickly as she thought. 45 00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: So every one of these races is different and unique. 46 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: I remember when George H. W. Bush for reelection and 47 00:03:02,120 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: Patrick Buchanan, who was really angry because he felt that 48 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: Bush was not conservative enough and that Bush had broken 49 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: his word on Texas. Buchanic got a remarkably good vote 50 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: in New Hampshire and really made him significantly hurt president 51 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: of Bush and made Buchanan for a brief period of time, 52 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: a really serious national player. Similarly, if you go back 53 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: good ways, you'll find in earlier years that it was 54 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: a right end vote for Eisenhower in nineteen fifty two, 55 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 1: which began to really build a momentum. That was in 56 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, which began to really build a momentum for 57 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 1: Ike to run for president and to resign as a general, 58 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 1: come back home from NATO and become a candidate. So 59 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: these primaries can play significant roles in interesting ways. They're 60 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: very different. The Iowa Caucus is an old tradition. In Iowa, 61 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: they treasured the idea that all these politicians are going 62 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,640 Speaker 1: to show up, go to every small town in the 63 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 1: state to bring all the reporters with them, spend a 64 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: fair amount of tourist money, and make Iowa important for 65 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: a brief period. Of course, the other forty nine states 66 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: deeply resent that and want to know why Iowa gets 67 00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: to be first. Originally, the thought was that if you 68 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: had a couple of small states in Iowa New Hampshire 69 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: are both small, you allow underfunded candidates, outsiders, people who 70 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: weren't massively wealthy, to have a shot at least at 71 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,560 Speaker 1: trying to break through and become important. And you saw 72 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: a little of that happen with Amy Klobshire, who had 73 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: a pretty good night in Iowa and then a great 74 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: night in New Hampshire for somebody who was an underdog. Now, 75 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: remember she came in third in New Hampshire and that 76 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: was treated almost like she'd won the state. She didn't 77 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,080 Speaker 1: win the state, and she still very much an underdog. 78 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: But it gives you a flavor that a senator from 79 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: Minnesota who doesn't have the kind of money that either 80 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: Beauty Judge or Sanders has and certainly done. The kind 81 00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: of money that Bloomberg has nonetheless could work hard. Visit 82 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 1: every newspaper in New Hampshire, particular, is a state that 83 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: has many small newspapers, each with their own editorial board, 84 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: each with their own readership. And so I think that 85 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: what she did was really commendable and impress it. It 86 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: certainly makes her a potential candidate for vice president. And 87 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,039 Speaker 1: depending on whether or not she can turn rapidly enough 88 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: to raising enough money to really make a difference, she 89 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: could begin to be a serious competitor, but at the 90 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 1: present time she's probably not. I don't think she has 91 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 1: particularly good organization in Nevada. I don't think she has 92 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: any organization in South Carolina. And then comes Super Tuesday, 93 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,679 Speaker 1: And in a way, I really want today to talk 94 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 1: with you about Super Tuesday in the light of what's 95 00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 1: happened in Iowa and in New Hampshire and what will 96 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:52,120 Speaker 1: probably happen in Nevada and in South Carolina. Super Tuesday 97 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: is the first time you have a lot of states 98 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: the same day, including the two biggest states in the country, 99 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: California and Texas. California loan is so expensive to try 100 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: to run a statewide ad in California would cost more 101 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: than the entire Clobishar campaign has had so far. It's 102 00:06:11,360 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 1: just a huge state. There's one player who clearly can 103 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: play in every single state, and that's Michael Bloomberg, whose 104 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: worth and estimated sixty two billion dollars, has already committed 105 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: to spending at least a billion of it. Has hired 106 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 1: twenty one hundred field at workers, seventeen hundred in the field, 107 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: four hundred in New York, giving all of them contracts 108 00:06:34,920 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: through December, so they have clear stability, paying them very well. 109 00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:44,040 Speaker 1: And anybody who does not think Bloomberg is going to 110 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:47,279 Speaker 1: be a serious contender, I think he's just out of 111 00:06:47,320 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 1: touch with reality. He currently, for example, is the front 112 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: runner in Arkansas, which is a very inexpensive state to 113 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 1: advertise in, and he can afford to advertise everywhere, and 114 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 1: the result is that he's going to be competiti even 115 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: places where the other candidates haven't even showed up yet 116 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,320 Speaker 1: and don't have the resources to show up, with the 117 00:07:05,320 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: exception of Sanders, who does have a nationwide network and 118 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,239 Speaker 1: who has the largest number of small donors of any 119 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: candidate and therefore can go back to him every month 120 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: by email and can raise millions every single month because 121 00:07:18,200 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: these people can give ten twenty thirty forty dollars every month. 122 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: Thirty or forty dollars times a million people is a 123 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: lot of money. So Sanders can play in a lot 124 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 1: of places. Not as many as Bloomberg, but a lot. 125 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 1: Annie's had all of this period of running for office. 126 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: In a sense, Hillary made him famous enough that he 127 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: kept building on that fame for the last four years, 128 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: and so he is a serious competitor. By contrast, Buddha 129 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: Judge is a new player. He also has a pretty 130 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 1: good finance base, not as good as a Sanders and 131 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:53,040 Speaker 1: certainly not as good as Bloomberg, but he's faced now 132 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,559 Speaker 1: with a sudden explosion of the campaign goes from being 133 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: one town hall meeting at a time to being a 134 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: na and wide operation. That's very tricky and very very complicated. 135 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: Coming up Why the presidential campaign of former New York 136 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:29,080 Speaker 1: City mayor Michael Bloomberg could be a game changer. Here's 137 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: how I see it beginning to play out. Bloomberg has 138 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 1: a real race with himself, and by that I mean 139 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: that whether it is it's comments about red lining where 140 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: he said if only we had red lined a lot 141 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 1: more houses, we wouldn't have had the housing crash at 142 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 1: the end of the last decade. Or his comments about 143 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: stop and frisk, which are given at Aspen several years 144 00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 1: ago when he was not a candidate, but would certainly 145 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: come across as very demeaning to the African American and 146 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:06,839 Speaker 1: Latino communities and raises in those communities, the whole sense 147 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: that stop and frisk was inherently racist and inherently harassed 148 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: innocent people. And so one of Bloomberg's challenges is that 149 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: the real Bloomberg is going to be very different from 150 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 1: the television campaign Bloomberg, and what he wants us to 151 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: do is pay attention to the Bloomberg commercial and not 152 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg reality. Anyone here the slogan Mike will 153 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: get it done, Okay, let me tell you what it is. 154 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: One good example is that he made a substantial amount 155 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: of his money dealing with the dictatorship and communist China. 156 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: And I know for a fact from people who were 157 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: involved that Bloomberg News began to investigate corruption in China, 158 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: they were given a very clear warning by the Chinese 159 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: government that they would punish Bloomberg financially unless they quit 160 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 1: covering any kind of corruption. Michael Bloomberg looked at that, 161 00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 1: so let me get this straight. I could be noble 162 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 1: and moral and I could cover corruption and be a hero, 163 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: or I could just get a lot richer. He chose richer, 164 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: so they closed down all of their investigative reporting. Several 165 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,680 Speaker 1: people resigned from Bloomberg News over this because they saw 166 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: it as caving into Chinese blackmail. And so what you're 167 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 1: going to see happening is there will be a massively 168 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: financed Bloomberg campaign. And so the people who never see politics, 169 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 1: never see politicians, never watch Fox or MSNBC or CNN, 170 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: they're now having this politician in their space on their 171 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 1: terms trying to convince them that he's okay. So on 172 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: the one front, you're going to have the saga of 173 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg campaign. On the other front, you're going to 174 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 1: have the reality of Mike Bloomberg, who does have a 175 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 1: public record for a long time, has lots of things 176 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: out there in terms of opposition research, and in many 177 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: ways is not very desirable. I mean, there's a reason 178 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:11,440 Speaker 1: when he ran for mayor for the third time that 179 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: he had to spend two hundred dollars a vote, which 180 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: I think is the all time record in New York. 181 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,439 Speaker 1: But it is truly a remarkable example. He didn't win 182 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: it because he was a charismatic leader. He didn't win 183 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 1: it because the city was in love with him. He 184 00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: wanted because he drowned his opponents. And even then he 185 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: didn't win it by a very big margin. His gambles 186 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: really simple. He can afford to campaign everywhere simultaneously, and 187 00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,559 Speaker 1: that's what he's going to do. Nobody else, not even Sanders, 188 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 1: can afford to campaign everywhere simultaneously, and so Bloomberg is 189 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: going to try to break through in enough places by 190 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 1: the end of Super Tuesday. Can the other candidates take 191 00:11:54,559 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: their much scarcer resources and channel them into specific dates 192 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:08,040 Speaker 1: to target getting delegates? For example, on Super Tuesday, Minnesota 193 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 1: as a caucus, and if Amy klobush are make sure 194 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: that she sweeps the caucus, she'll pick up a chunk 195 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,800 Speaker 1: of delegates and she probably can beat either Sanders or 196 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg in her home state, particularly given the quality of 197 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 1: coverage she's getting in the way people are saying nice 198 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 1: things about her. Does somebody go into Oklahoma, which is 199 00:12:28,800 --> 00:12:31,960 Speaker 1: a relatively an expensive state, or do they decide to 200 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: compete with Bloomberg in Arkansas? You can imagine different places. 201 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 1: Do they begin to detect a weakness if this combination 202 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:46,839 Speaker 1: of favoring redlining, which means basically not giving mortgages to minorities, 203 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 1: and favoring stop and frisk, which she has now apologized for, 204 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,199 Speaker 1: but as recently as twenty fifteen at the Aspen Institute, 205 00:12:54,400 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: he was explaining why it was totally appropriate and rationalis 206 00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,920 Speaker 1: one am you can just take for this vision, or said, 207 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,079 Speaker 1: pass it out to all the cops. They are mail minorities. 208 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: That's true in the art is true virtually everything, and 209 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: that's where the real times you've got to get the 210 00:13:16,520 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 1: guns and how that they handle it. People get kill, 211 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: She's gone. If you want to send them a lot 212 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 1: of costs in street, put those costs way other crimes, 213 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: the minority neighborhoods. So he said, one of the unintended 214 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: con supplances is people say, oh my god, you are 215 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: arresting kids from narrow one. They're all, yes, that's true. 216 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: Why because we put all the costs in the minoriti 217 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 1: handle But yes, that's true. Why we do it because 218 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 1: that's where all the crimes and on the way she 219 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,400 Speaker 1: get the guns other kids hands is to throw them 220 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: against the walls. So does all that come together in 221 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 1: a way which allows for huge weakness with African Americans 222 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: and with Latinos. If that turns out to be the case, 223 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: somebody may be able to go into, for example, Houston 224 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:08,080 Speaker 1: and Dallas, or go into Los Angeles and beat Bloomberg 225 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: despite the propaganda, because people may decide they just don't 226 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 1: like him. I think that could be Bloomberg's challenge. It 227 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: may well be that in the end, as they get 228 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 1: to know him better, they will like him less and less. 229 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 1: And if that's true, you can't buy enough advertising to 230 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 1: offset them. But that's his gamble. He hopes to be 231 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: able to drown particularly people who pay no attention to politics. 232 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 1: His real marketplace is the voter who doesn't watch Fox, 233 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: doesn't watch MSNBC, doesn't watch CNN, and who just gets 234 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: these vague impressions. And so they see Bloomberg thirty times 235 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: in a week leading up to their primary or their caucus. 236 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: They go, well, he seems like a nice guy, and 237 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 1: that's what he's trying to do. And if you watch, 238 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,960 Speaker 1: he's steadily rising in the polls, you have to list 239 00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:02,080 Speaker 1: him as somebody likely to be a contender all the 240 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: way to the convention coming up. I'll explain why Pete 241 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: Buddha Judge reminds me of Beto O'Rourke. Buddha Judge is 242 00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: different than my judgment. I actually think that Buddha Judge 243 00:15:29,520 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: is probably piqued but doesn't know it. The reason I 244 00:15:32,280 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 1: think that is in the end, Buddha Judge is remarkably 245 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: like Bead O'Rourke, who came out of nowhere and looked 246 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 1: like he was a fabulous and then it turned out 247 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: there wasn't much there and people began to suddenly realize 248 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: that he looked good, but in fact he was not real. 249 00:15:53,120 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: In an age which really does value authenticity to be 250 00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:02,440 Speaker 1: seen as inauthentic, he's almost the kiss of death because 251 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: people just shrug you off. There's a very brief braver 252 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: and Bade O'Rourke looked like he's going to be a 253 00:16:07,080 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: very serious contender and it has disappeared. Well, the same 254 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:16,240 Speaker 1: thing is true here. You have in Buddha Judge, somebody 255 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: who at one level has brilliantly played the news media. 256 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 1: He represents a sort of the coming out party for 257 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: the gay rights movement, the fact that he was on 258 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 1: the cover of Time with his husband. There is a 259 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: fairly large number of donors who are just proud of 260 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: him for that. He's attractive, he's younger, he's been a 261 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:42,760 Speaker 1: pretty impressive person. But the truth is when you listen 262 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: to him actually talk, he begins to devour his own candidacy. 263 00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: And I'll give you two examples just from this last week. 264 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: A woman went up to see him and said, I 265 00:16:55,440 --> 00:17:01,280 Speaker 1: am a pro life Democrat and I'm troubled because the 266 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 1: way you talk, I'm not sure there's any room in 267 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party for somebody who's pro life. Now, a 268 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: normal politician would have tried to find a way to 269 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 1: appease her and would have said, well, you know, there's 270 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 1: some common ground and there are things we can agree 271 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: on and so forth. Buddha Judge did the exact opposite, 272 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: and he essentially said to her, you know, if you're 273 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 1: not pro choice, you probably earned a Democrat. Well that's 274 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: about thirty or thirty five percent of the the Democratic Party. 275 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:36,440 Speaker 1: It's clearly not a sustainable position in a general election. Second, 276 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:40,359 Speaker 1: he was being interviewed and he said I would decriminalize heroin. Mayor, 277 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: you not only want to decriminalize marijuana, you want to 278 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: decriminalize all drug possession. You say that the better answer 279 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:52,639 Speaker 1: is incarceration. I mean, it's rather treatment, not incarceration. But 280 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: isn't the fact that it's illegal to have to possess 281 00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: math and heroin. Isn't that, at least in some way, 282 00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: the fact that it's illegal act as a sum deterrent 283 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 1: to actually trying it in the first place. Well, I 284 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:09,159 Speaker 1: think the main thing we need to focus on is 285 00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 1: where you have distribution and the kind of harm that's 286 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 1: done there where. Yeah, of course it's important that it 287 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,040 Speaker 1: remain illegal, but it would be criminalized it, so it 288 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:22,200 Speaker 1: wouldn't be illegal. Possession shouldn't be dealt with through incarceration. 289 00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 1: And you, if you excite that possession of heroin is 290 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: not illegal, is not going to be dealt with through incarceration. 291 00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:34,440 Speaker 1: But your website says decriminalize it would not be illegal, yes, 292 00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: or it could be a misdemeanor. The point is not 293 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,879 Speaker 1: the legal niceties. The point is that we have learned 294 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: through forty years of a failed war on drugs that 295 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: criminalizing addiction doesn't work. Now, there a lot of people 296 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,800 Speaker 1: who are for marijuana. There are people who might be 297 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: concerned about certain other drugs, but the pro heroine market 298 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,920 Speaker 1: of this country is really tiny and the anti heroine 299 00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 1: market is really big. And as you watch him, he's 300 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 1: a moderate in temperament and personality, but in fact he 301 00:19:07,480 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 1: is a classic radical on the left, and when you 302 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 1: watch the details of what he stands for, he's rapidly 303 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: going to become, I think, less and less survivable because 304 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 1: he's up against the real deal and Sanders, and he's 305 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,920 Speaker 1: up against the real money in Bloomberg. Now, by contrast, 306 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: I think Biden is essentially gone. I think the only 307 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: circumstance I can imagine where Biden makes a comeback he 308 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: is in the two debates that are coming up, which 309 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:44,360 Speaker 1: he has a shot before South Carolina. If he could 310 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: go into those two debates and he could dominate the debates, 311 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: stay in charge, be aggressive, make the case why the 312 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 1: others should not be the nominee, I think he could 313 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 1: bounce back. I also think, having watched Biden now for 314 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:03,439 Speaker 1: his entire career, that he's almost certainly not capable of 315 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: doing that. That. First of all, the format doesn't work 316 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: very well for that kind of a debate because everybody's 317 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: going to be talking, and the moderator is going to 318 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 1: be talking, and it's gonna be very hard for Biden 319 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: to make a coherent case. Second, Biden is not naturally 320 00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: a fighter. He's a nice guy. He's a pleasant guy. 321 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 1: You meet him and you like him and you want 322 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 1: to have a drink with him. But he's not the 323 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,439 Speaker 1: kind of guy who is going to get into a 324 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: brass knuckles fight. And if he doesn't get into a 325 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,400 Speaker 1: brass knuckles fight, I think he's gone. And I think 326 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 1: he's gone because he doesn't feel like he's really in 327 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: the race. I mean when he went into New Hampshire 328 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 1: and said is one of his opening comments, I had 329 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: a bad night in Iowa, and my guesses I'm gonna 330 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: have a bad night here. Why start on the negative? 331 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: And I think it was that kind of attitude which 332 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,160 Speaker 1: ultimately got him to run fifth. I think if he'd 333 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,640 Speaker 1: gone in there aggressively his case been seen on offense, 334 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,040 Speaker 1: he probably would have come in third and would have 335 00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: passed both Amy Klobucher and Elizabeth Warren. But as it was, 336 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,440 Speaker 1: he's like watching a balloon shrink, his losing air every 337 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: week and now you're going to get into the when 338 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:20,040 Speaker 1: does he get out kind of stories, and people are 339 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,159 Speaker 1: going to be going after him all the time. I 340 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: thought last week one of the things he did that 341 00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 1: was among the weirdest things of this whole campaign was 342 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 1: when the young girl college student asked him how he 343 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: was going to explain the losses in Iowa, and he said, 344 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:36,800 Speaker 1: have you ever been to a caucus? And she said yes, 345 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 1: And he said, you're a lying, dog faced pony soldier. 346 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 1: So you're arguably the candidate with the greatest advantage in 347 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: this race. You've been the vice president, you weren't burdened 348 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 1: down by the impeachment trials, soar in the participation. So 349 00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: how do you explain the performance in Iowa? And why 350 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 1: should the voters believe that you can win the national election. 351 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: It's a good question. Number One. I was a Democratic caucus, yeah, 352 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 1: Mendel caucus. No, you haven't. You're a line, dog faced 353 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: pony soldier. You said you are, but now you gotta 354 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 1: be honest. I'm gonna be honest with you. It was 355 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 1: a little bit confusing in Iowa, and I literally went 356 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:28,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter and asked, what is a dog faced pony soldier? 357 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: And We did some research. There was a movie in 358 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:36,000 Speaker 1: nineteen fifty two with Tyrone Power about the Canadian Mounted 359 00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: Police in the Northwest, and it was called The Pony Soldier. 360 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,159 Speaker 1: I couldn't find any reference to a dog faced pony soldier. 361 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 1: This guy was the vice president of States. He insults 362 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,120 Speaker 1: a college student who was only asking him I thought 363 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: a pretty decent question. Doesn't answer her question, calls her 364 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:58,720 Speaker 1: a name, and it's a name which is incomprehensible, and 365 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,080 Speaker 1: I think that's the problem. Biden Scott in the end. 366 00:23:02,119 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 1: He can't hit major league pitching. He was fine in Delaware, 367 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 1: which is a small state with little competition. He was 368 00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: fine as the vice president to Obama because his job 369 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 1: basically was not to screw up and stay in Obama's shadow. 370 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:18,520 Speaker 1: But now, once again, for the third time, he's out 371 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,919 Speaker 1: on his own. The first two runs for president ended badly. 372 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,439 Speaker 1: The first time because he stole a speech from Neil Kinnock, 373 00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 1: the British labor leader at the time, in which Kinnock 374 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: described very emotionally growing up in a Welsh coal mining village, 375 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:38,640 Speaker 1: and Biden just took that speech and changed it into Scranton, 376 00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 1: Pennsylvania reporters figured out that Biden wasn't Neil Kinnock, and 377 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:46,320 Speaker 1: literally he was humiliated into getting out of the race. 378 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: He ran a second time and did so badly in Iowhether, 379 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 1: he just dropped out. So we've never seen Biden as 380 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 1: a successful candidate campaigning as an underdog, being sharp and 381 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:01,360 Speaker 1: aggressive and on offense, and I don't think we're going 382 00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 1: to so in my own calculation, by Super Tuesday, the 383 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:13,679 Speaker 1: race is going to be Bloomberg, Sanders, Buddha, Judge, and Klovisher. 384 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 1: You'll notice I dropped Elizabeth Warren because she came in 385 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: fourth in New Hampshire. She was unable to translate being 386 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,760 Speaker 1: known into getting votes. I think it's very hard to 387 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: imagine why she's going to do dramatically better, and that 388 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 1: makes it very hard to imagine why she's going to 389 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:33,920 Speaker 1: be able to raise any money. And that means that 390 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 1: by Super Tuesday, for all practical purposes, she'll be out 391 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: of the race. The fact is, when you start getting 392 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:45,400 Speaker 1: down into getting no delegates, you pretty rapidly look very anemic, 393 00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: and that's what happened to both Elizabeth Warren and to 394 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: Joe Biden. I should say one other thing about how 395 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,399 Speaker 1: this process evolves. The news media always moves as a pack. 396 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:57,640 Speaker 1: It always looks Thoice. And that's why for a while 397 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,400 Speaker 1: Baye ou O Wurk was the charming, wonderful person. Why 398 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: even though she came in third, not first, all sorts 399 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: of news stories cited Clovature as the big winner because 400 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:13,240 Speaker 1: she had performed better than expected. Sanders, who got more 401 00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: votes in Iowa, but because of the very screwed up 402 00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:19,920 Speaker 1: Iowa system, got fewer delegates than Buddha Judge but actually 403 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: had more votes, then came back and had more votes 404 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 1: in New Hampshire, and most of the elite media just 405 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:30,680 Speaker 1: doesn't want to call him the winner. So Buddha Judge 406 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,879 Speaker 1: won because he did so much better than expected. Clobature 407 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,120 Speaker 1: won because her debate performance was wonderful and she got 408 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: third place, And somehow the media keeps trying to say, well, 409 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: Sanders and winning didn't win big enough. But he won 410 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 1: and he will have delegates, and that's a key part 411 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: of what this is all about. So there's another phase coming, 412 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 1: and that is Sanders will clearly keep raising money because 413 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 1: people who are ideologically committed to him are really committed 414 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 1: to him as almost the same passion that Trump has 415 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: Buddha judge I think for a while is going to 416 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,520 Speaker 1: keep raising money, and if he performs better than I 417 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,479 Speaker 1: think he will, he could become a fairly serious player. 418 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: Clovitshure now has an opportunity to get into the game. 419 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:23,600 Speaker 1: Biden and Warren will gradually disappear, and Bloomberg will show 420 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 1: up in full force, spending a billion dollars, So you 421 00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 1: really have a four person race. I explore the topic 422 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 1: of money in our presidential elections in newts inner Circle 423 00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,960 Speaker 1: dot com. It is a subscription service where I offer 424 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 1: insights and commentary on the issues that matter to me. 425 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: Most joined today at newtsenter Circle dot com. Next, why 426 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 1: twenty twenty is one of the most significant elections of 427 00:26:52,080 --> 00:27:14,280 Speaker 1: our lifetime. Here's where the Democratic Party rules get fascinating. 428 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 1: The Republicans had deliberately adopted a winner take all model 429 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,919 Speaker 1: that pretty well guaranteed that you would not have a 430 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,120 Speaker 1: brokered convention because if he won a state, you got 431 00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,879 Speaker 1: all the delegates. It was a graduated thing, which is 432 00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: the longer the race went on, the mora became winner 433 00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: take all, but it was really designed to close down 434 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:39,880 Speaker 1: the race and get somebody nominated. I don't think when 435 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: they designed this they thought that Donald Trump would be 436 00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,400 Speaker 1: the guy who won. And I suspect there are times 437 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: when they sort of wished they did not have winner 438 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 1: take all, because he wasn't winning by a big enough 439 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 1: margin that he would have dominated the convention in delegates. 440 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:58,080 Speaker 1: If it had been proportional. Even if it was a 441 00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 1: narrow victory, you got all the delegates the state. He 442 00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: was doing just fine, and he ultimately had the delegates 443 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:09,439 Speaker 1: necessary to win against all the other candidates combined. However, 444 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: the Democrats partly that this comes from the whole McGovern 445 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 1: era reforms. If you get fifteen percent of the vote, 446 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: you get delegates. Well, first of all, it gives you 447 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 1: an incentive to stay in the challenge for Warren and 448 00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: for Biden is that in New Hampshire they both fell 449 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:32,520 Speaker 1: below fifteen percent and therefore they weren't getting delegates. And remember, 450 00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: as the field shrinks, the chances of you getting fifteen 451 00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: percent go up because the votes not being divided among 452 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,360 Speaker 1: as many people. If you have a number of people 453 00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 1: capable of getting fifteen percent each and therefore getting delegates, 454 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,400 Speaker 1: you could pretty easily slide into a brokered convention and 455 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: a brokered convention for the Democrats is a particular nightmare 456 00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: because on the second ballot, all of their elite delegates 457 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: get to vote. This is a model they built in 458 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 1: order to give the professional class of politicians extra weight 459 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:17,320 Speaker 1: in order to block some ideological nut from dominating the party. 460 00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,360 Speaker 1: The problem is if Sanders goes into the convention with 461 00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:23,920 Speaker 1: forty five percent of the delegates and doesn't get the nomination, 462 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: the party will be torn apart. Because the left believes 463 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 1: firmly that the Democratic National Committee was in favor of 464 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 1: Hillary and cheated Sanders in twenty sixteen, They're not going 465 00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 1: to tolerate this happening a second time. You could literally 466 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: see just an amazing convention. On the other hand, it 467 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 1: makes it unlikely that even with all of his money, 468 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:51,640 Speaker 1: that Bloomberg is going to get to a solid majority 469 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 1: of the delegates. So either he or Sanders will probably 470 00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 1: have the most delegates, but probably neither will have enough 471 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: to be a majority. And then you get into maneuvering 472 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:06,680 Speaker 1: such as what should the platform say. The current way 473 00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: this race is evolving, you could have the anti billionaire 474 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 1: a wing, which would be Sanders, Buddha Judge, and Clobuture 475 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 1: versus the billionaire wing, which would be Bloomberg. You could 476 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 1: have the argument for socialism, which would be Bernie Sanders, 477 00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,240 Speaker 1: and the argument for free markets, which would be Bloomberg, 478 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,680 Speaker 1: and to some extent Clobuture and Buddha judge. But you 479 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 1: can see how all of a sudden the convention could 480 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:38,600 Speaker 1: be the first true open convention since nineteen fifty two, 481 00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: when Adelais Stevenson emerged at a time when nobody thought 482 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 1: it was possible. So I think that this is going 483 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,760 Speaker 1: to be fascinating. I think that it's well worth paying attention. 484 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: You're seeing living history. I recommend to everybody who wants 485 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: the deeper, better understanding that they get copies of Theodore 486 00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: Whites too Great making the President's nineteen six eight in 487 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:05,520 Speaker 1: nineteen seventy two. You'll find them amazingly valid and useful today, 488 00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 1: even though it's a half century later. The trends and 489 00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 1: the patterns that he was beginning to uncover in that 490 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,240 Speaker 1: period are still alive and well, and they're captured in 491 00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:18,840 Speaker 1: part by Bernie Sanders and the Left. At the same time, 492 00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: we have never had somebody willing to blatantly and overtly 493 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 1: try to buy the presidency on the scale that Bloomberg is, 494 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 1: and that's going to lead to all sorts of very 495 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: interesting debates and attacks. And the opposition research in Bloomberg 496 00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: has only begun, and we will learn a great deal 497 00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: more about him in the next couple of months. Like you, 498 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: I am looking forward to seeing how this all works out, 499 00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 1: and I will be reporting again analytically on where I 500 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:55,040 Speaker 1: think we are after Super Tuesday. You can read more 501 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 1: about the twenty twenty election the state of the Democratic 502 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 1: race on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld 503 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,920 Speaker 1: is produced by Inglish, Sweet sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive 504 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 1: producer is Debbie Myers and our producer is Garnsey Islam. 505 00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 506 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: Please email me with your comments at newt at newtsworld 507 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:23,160 Speaker 1: dot com. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 508 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five 509 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,720 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 510 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 1: what it's all about on the next episode of Newtsworld. 511 00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:41,440 Speaker 1: The Tuskegee Airmen were the only African American pilots in 512 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 1: combat in the Army Air Forces during World War two. 513 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 1: The Tuskegee Airman overcame segregation and prejudice to become one 514 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 1: of the most highly respected fighter groups of World War Two. 515 00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 1: They proved conclusively that African Americans could fly and maintain 516 00:32:57,680 --> 00:33:03,080 Speaker 1: sophisticated combat aircraft. The tuskegeema's achievements, together with the men 517 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,880 Speaker 1: and women who supported them, paved the way for full 518 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: integration of the US military. They are the subject of 519 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 1: our next episode. I'm Newt Gingriche. This is Newt's World.