WEBVTT - H&R Block CEO Supports IRS Funding

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanivk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We've been watching shares of

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<v Speaker 1>H and R Block hitting a record high, the stock

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<v Speaker 1>nearly doubling this year alone. This is the company reported

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<v Speaker 1>fourth quarter just ADPs that beat revenue was flat, raised

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<v Speaker 1>guide and so for fisical adjusted EPs, and it did

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<v Speaker 1>approve a new buyback of one billion dollars. Really great

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<v Speaker 1>to have back on Bloomberg Business Week once again. Jeff Jones.

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<v Speaker 1>He is president and CEO at H and R Block.

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<v Speaker 1>We'd like to remind everybody that Jeff has had a

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<v Speaker 1>really cool career um including Chief Marketing Officer at Gap Target,

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<v Speaker 1>President of Rideshew her at Uber so really in tune

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<v Speaker 1>with what's going on in terms of the corporate world.

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<v Speaker 1>Jeff joins us via zoom from Kansas City, Missouri. Jeff's

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<v Speaker 1>so nice to have you here. How are you? I'm

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<v Speaker 1>doing great, Carol, good afternoon, and hey Mike, how are

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<v Speaker 1>you guys? Hi? Jeff, Yeah, I had to do. I

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<v Speaker 1>did a double take looking at your stock chart today.

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<v Speaker 1>I was like, Jeff's gotta be the one guy. We've

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<v Speaker 1>been talking about this bear market all year. Jeff's gotta

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<v Speaker 1>be like, are you talking about you know what? It's

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<v Speaker 1>It's really amazing to see the market starting to hear

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<v Speaker 1>our story. And you comment on a Carol, we had

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<v Speaker 1>a great year. Um, we also provided really strong outlook

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<v Speaker 1>and so I think it's a really great combination for

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<v Speaker 1>the company right now. Well, and you have been you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you've had a five year plan. You've been really you know,

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<v Speaker 1>working on small business financial products. A lot of different things.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us about the quarter in the look ahead. What's

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<v Speaker 1>really driving momentum right now? Jeff, Well, let's start with

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<v Speaker 1>you know, our bread and butter, the core consumer tax business. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we continue to make improvements in avenue and

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<v Speaker 1>client volume, in market share, and our assistant business really

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<v Speaker 1>demonstrating just how strong that industry is. You know, we

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about going into the pandemic and nineteen coming

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<v Speaker 1>out in twenty two, up in revenue, up in market share,

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<v Speaker 1>up and earnings reducing shares outstanding. So the core consumer

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<v Speaker 1>tax business has been very strong. We had a record

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<v Speaker 1>year in small business UH, and so that means more

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<v Speaker 1>and more small business owners are recognizing our expertise and

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<v Speaker 1>turning us for tax. And then we had a really

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<v Speaker 1>successful initial launch of Spruce, which is our new challenger bank.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Cheff, the big news in politics this week

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<v Speaker 1>obviously is that Inflation Reduction Act UH. And part of

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<v Speaker 1>that is, UH they want to add UH. I forget

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<v Speaker 1>how many thousands, thousands and thousands of IRS agents. I've

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<v Speaker 1>got to think that's a very big opportunity opportunity for you,

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<v Speaker 1>but also potentially at challenge. I'm just curious how you're

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about the ramp up of the I r S

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<v Speaker 1>enforcement that is embedded in this bill. Well, we've been

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<v Speaker 1>very vocal in support of the I r S receiving

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<v Speaker 1>more funding. UM, you know, they touch more American consumers

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<v Speaker 1>than any other agency, and they have not had the

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<v Speaker 1>resources to be equipped to do that. So we absolutely

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<v Speaker 1>support that. And what we've seen, I guess over history

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<v Speaker 1>is when the I r S steps up enforcement, the

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<v Speaker 1>consumer looks for expertise more and more. You know, keep

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<v Speaker 1>in mind, the stakes for our clients are very high.

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<v Speaker 1>Getting this right matters, getting me every dollar they deserve

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<v Speaker 1>matters whether you're a small business owner, a gig worker,

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<v Speaker 1>or a consumer. And so you know, we're glad they're

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<v Speaker 1>getting more support and we're here to help the customer.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, you did talk jet that you know your

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<v Speaker 1>core businesses the tax services, but you are expanding in

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<v Speaker 1>small business. You mentioned spruce your mobile banking. What kind

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<v Speaker 1>of growth are we seeing on those platforms and do

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<v Speaker 1>you anticipate that there is a time where they are

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<v Speaker 1>as equally as important as your core tax business. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no question there strategically as important today. Of course

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<v Speaker 1>they're earlier stage. We've been in the tax business for decades.

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<v Speaker 1>In small business, we had a record gear we grew

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<v Speaker 1>that business clients five percent on top of four percent

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<v Speaker 1>last year. Uh, and believe there's still lots of upside

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<v Speaker 1>in serving small businesses just looking at the landscape. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>those people that have side hustles, ten ninety nine gig workers.

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<v Speaker 1>They may not consider themselves to be a small business owner,

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<v Speaker 1>but they absolutely have tax and bookkeeping potentially payroll needs, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>just like a small business would. And then we with Spruce,

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<v Speaker 1>we had a fantastic launch. That product has been in

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<v Speaker 1>the market only a handful of months. We've had seven

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<v Speaker 1>major releases of the app since we launched, and right

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<v Speaker 1>now the team is focused on testing customer acquisition our

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<v Speaker 1>outside of tax season and then getting ready to launch

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<v Speaker 1>it in our retail channel next tax season. Obviously, we

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<v Speaker 1>have a very large install base of customers and we

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<v Speaker 1>want to take full advantage of introducing them to Spruce

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<v Speaker 1>next year. Jeff, what was cool about talking to you?

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<v Speaker 1>You talk about small business? You know, it's funny. Our

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<v Speaker 1>colleague on television, Caroline Hyde, she talked about the small

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<v Speaker 1>cap um the Russell doing really well and out performing

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<v Speaker 1>the broader market, and a lot of that has to

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<v Speaker 1>play with kind of domestic businesses here in the US

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<v Speaker 1>maybe upbeat about the outlook in the economy. So I

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<v Speaker 1>love hearing what you have to say about small business.

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<v Speaker 1>I love hearing about Spruce because you get some inside

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<v Speaker 1>into consumers and really kind of maybe how much money

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<v Speaker 1>they've been able to save and so on and so forth.

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<v Speaker 1>Based on what you are seeing based on your business overall,

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<v Speaker 1>would you say, yep, we are headed for a recession

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<v Speaker 1>in the next year, or we're not. If I just

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<v Speaker 1>had to simply call it, I would say we're not

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<v Speaker 1>um but like you all do as well. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're looking at this same data. There are days to

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<v Speaker 1>be optimistic and then the next day you need to

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<v Speaker 1>be cautious. Something that we did and we'll be releasing

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<v Speaker 1>this very soon is for the second year, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to be publishing what we call the Outlook on American Life.

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<v Speaker 1>And so we aggregate all of the data from all

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<v Speaker 1>of our clients tax returns to find the themes and trends.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know that tax return is really like financial

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<v Speaker 1>d n A. And so we'll be talking about what

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing with shifts in employment, retirement, saving, spending, UH

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<v Speaker 1>and look forward to maybe sharing that with you all

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<v Speaker 1>of whom we're ready to release it. Look forward to

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<v Speaker 1>it absolutely so in terms of okay, so we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>look forward to that. You say, not a recession based

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<v Speaker 1>on this, So you said, I mean, listen, investors are

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<v Speaker 1>certainly plowing into your stock. You seem very optimistic. What

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<v Speaker 1>is it that maybe troubles you a little bit? Is

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<v Speaker 1>there some concern about the FED over doing it and

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<v Speaker 1>putting some slow momentum ultimately into the economy. Yeah, I mean, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>part of our diversification is to participate in different parts

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<v Speaker 1>of the market. In the tax business, you know that

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<v Speaker 1>business over many, many decades has not been sensitive to

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<v Speaker 1>recession because of the obligation we have as American filers.

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<v Speaker 1>In fact, when economic times get tough, the stakes rise,

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<v Speaker 1>that's when our expertise and value really kick in. So

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<v Speaker 1>obviously we have to execute and continue to build on

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<v Speaker 1>the momentum we have. But that business looks different than,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, in our financial products portfolio, where you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if savings rates are lower and maybe credit is starting

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<v Speaker 1>to rise again and every dollar matters and government subsidies

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<v Speaker 1>are gone, then what we have to do with spruces

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<v Speaker 1>make sure people know that product is a almost completely

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<v Speaker 1>fee free product that offers incredible value to help you space,

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<v Speaker 1>end and save and plan. And so we try to

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<v Speaker 1>lean into how our value proposition is helping consumers because

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<v Speaker 1>we know that every dollar really matters, you know, Cheff,

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<v Speaker 1>there's always a debate when a company has a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of cash on hand whether to uh issue a dividend,

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<v Speaker 1>increase that dividend, or to buy back shares. How to

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<v Speaker 1>what the best avenue is to return that cash to shareholders.

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<v Speaker 1>You guys doing a little bit of both, increasing the

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<v Speaker 1>dividends seven also a new share repurchase authorization one point

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<v Speaker 1>to five billion. How do you think about how to

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<v Speaker 1>return that share that capital to shareholders? Is it is

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<v Speaker 1>it best to do a little bit of each like

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<v Speaker 1>like you're doing, or you know, what's the calculus that

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<v Speaker 1>goes into deciding how to do that? Well, Mike, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess i'd also say the first part is investing in

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<v Speaker 1>our business, which we are absolutely doing now. We're able

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<v Speaker 1>to still, Jennifer, generate significant free cash flow to invest

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<v Speaker 1>in dividends and share repurchase because of our expense may

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<v Speaker 1>management discipline where we're essentially self funding our growth to

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<v Speaker 1>create new products like spruce and to invest in wave

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<v Speaker 1>and other things. So once we make those decisions to

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<v Speaker 1>invest in the business, then we're essentially returning the remaining

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<v Speaker 1>free cash flow to investors. We're committed to our dividend.

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<v Speaker 1>We've been growing the dividend, and if you think about

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<v Speaker 1>on a given year, I think, you know, roughly couple

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<v Speaker 1>hundred million dollars to continue to invest in our dividend

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<v Speaker 1>and the rest two to three hundred millions in share

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<v Speaker 1>by back. So because of the profitability of this business,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're in a unique position to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to really do all three at an effective way. You know, Jeff,

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<v Speaker 1>it's an interesting story in terms of what you guys

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<v Speaker 1>are doing. We have about a minute left here. As

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<v Speaker 1>you guys have been broadening out, expanding services. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>part of it is so that you can kind of

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<v Speaker 1>you know, not be see so much of kind of

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<v Speaker 1>positive results. Are so much business momentum kind during tax season, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So are you seeing signs of it that there's more

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<v Speaker 1>business throughout the year? Um, yes, But we're not even

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<v Speaker 1>close to being down the road of that journey yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, again, the lions share of our business

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<v Speaker 1>today still happens in tax season. As we serve more

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<v Speaker 1>small businesses, those dates extend, bookkeeping in payroll becomes year round,

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<v Speaker 1>and clearly the goal for Spruce is to be a

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<v Speaker 1>year around financial products business. We're just in the early innings,

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<v Speaker 1>but that's absolutely the strategy. Alright, gotta be really quick

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<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds. We'd like to do this when we've got

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<v Speaker 1>a leader of a company so well known, what keeps

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<v Speaker 1>you up at night, continuing to meet expectations and all

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<v Speaker 1>the growth we've been delivering us. That's what we're up

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<v Speaker 1>to right now. Yeah, and the expectations are pretty high.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, as we said, the stock is up here

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<v Speaker 1>in two um. Jeff, Always appreciate time with you, and

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to hear how the story at H and R

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<v Speaker 1>Block really continues to evolve. Thank you so much, Really

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate it as well. Bye bye, well Jeff Jones. He

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<v Speaker 1>is president, chief executive officer of H and R Block,

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<v Speaker 1>joining us via zoom from Kansas City, Missouri. As we mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>the stock really on a tear today following those earning

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<v Speaker 1>stock mike up more than fifteen percent in today's trade

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<v Speaker 1>and again up so far in Yeah. Picked a good

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<v Speaker 1>day to report some good earnings. Exactly. Everyone's ready to

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<v Speaker 1>buy exactly, really some outperformance. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Okay, you know it's a big economic day,

0:11:31.840 --> 0:11:34.079
<v Speaker 1>you know it's a big market day. But before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into some of the heavier stories of the day,

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<v Speaker 1>we thought we'd take a little bit of a sports

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<v Speaker 1>time out some of the challenges that are out there,

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<v Speaker 1>legal challenges of players in the Saudi Finance Breakaway pro

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:44.880
<v Speaker 1>Golf Tour. And then you've got Serena trying to have

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<v Speaker 1>it all, and like we know, it's not easy. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not easy. And I can't imagine trying to play a

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<v Speaker 1>Grand Slam tennis event with a young kid at home.

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<v Speaker 1>I I totally get where she's coming from. And being pregnant. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. It's hard enough to get there, you

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<v Speaker 1>know otherwise, and let alone with little kids and being pregnant.

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<v Speaker 1>So I feel her pain there a little bit, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get to Scarlet Food, who is a Bloomberg

0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>Quick Take correspondent. She is also one of the hosts

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<v Speaker 1>of the Bloomberg Business of Sports radio show and podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can check out the Bloomberger Business Sports Podcast

0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:18.920
<v Speaker 1>every Monday, Wednesday and Thursday at Bloomberg dot com. Or

0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:21.400
<v Speaker 1>wherever you get your podcast. She's in our Studio's so

0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.720
<v Speaker 1>nice to have you here, guys. Hi. So let's chart.

0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:28.760
<v Speaker 1>Let's start with this pg A battle against a civil

0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 1>war engulf. I mean, every day on the terminal, there's

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.000
<v Speaker 1>a story on it. So tell us the latest in

0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.440
<v Speaker 1>the controversy. The latest is that there was a judge

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:42.960
<v Speaker 1>that sided with the PGA Tour basically because the Saudi

0:12:43.200 --> 0:12:47.360
<v Speaker 1>backed Live Golf tournament UM has been making in roads

0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:50.319
<v Speaker 1>into PGA and of course Greg Norman founded this and

0:12:50.360 --> 0:12:53.439
<v Speaker 1>they poached a lot of PGA players, meaning they've recruited

0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:55.120
<v Speaker 1>a lot PJ players, and they paid them a lot

0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.800
<v Speaker 1>of money with bonuses, and just for participating in the

0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:00.160
<v Speaker 1>live golf tournament they make money, more money and many

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 1>instances than they would on the PGA Tour. The PGA

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 1>response to this was you're dead to us now, like

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.520
<v Speaker 1>you can't you can't play on our PGA Tour if

0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.200
<v Speaker 1>you're going to join live golf. So three players sued

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>the p G a basically under making the argument that's

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.560
<v Speaker 1>acting like a monopoly, right that you know you're suppressing

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 1>our wages, aren't they. I mean it's a good case.

0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:27.400
<v Speaker 1>I think they're not employees of either organization, right, Their

0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 1>contractors their freelancers in many ways, Like are their NBA

0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:33.480
<v Speaker 1>players who then go play with other leagues? Didn't they

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:36.640
<v Speaker 1>used to? There's collective bargaining agreements though, and their employees

0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:40.200
<v Speaker 1>of the NBA slightly different, Right, these are freelancers. But

0:13:40.280 --> 0:13:44.200
<v Speaker 1>in this case, you're talking about Live Golf paying the

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 1>players more than they would have made on p G A.

0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.719
<v Speaker 1>So the PGAs being sued for suppressing wages when they

0:13:49.760 --> 0:13:52.440
<v Speaker 1>went to go to the league that plays that pays

0:13:52.480 --> 0:13:55.959
<v Speaker 1>them more money. Why can't they all play both? Uh? Well,

0:13:56.080 --> 0:13:58.120
<v Speaker 1>that this is a battle for the soul of golf.

0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the PGA rests on legacy, see on tradition,

0:14:01.040 --> 0:14:03.640
<v Speaker 1>and Live is coming in as an upstart and you know,

0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.800
<v Speaker 1>trying to do things differently. The play is different, and

0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.679
<v Speaker 1>of course the funding is different because it's funded by

0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:12.160
<v Speaker 1>the Saudi Arabian government. Well, at the end of the day, Squirrel,

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.640
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't it all get back to TV revenue to

0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:17.079
<v Speaker 1>some degree? I mean I love watching golf on TV

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:20.040
<v Speaker 1>because it's only really do well, it's only score you

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.200
<v Speaker 1>can actually not forcing you know, you could doze off

0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:28.400
<v Speaker 1>for a little bit and we all right, I have

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:30.920
<v Speaker 1>to try that, but I prefer a good golf nap.

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.440
<v Speaker 1>But then you hear the crowd revs up and wakes

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.240
<v Speaker 1>you up and you watch the replay. But is there

0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:40.120
<v Speaker 1>any path to live getting on TV and to radioactive?

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Do you think? Politically? Um? I mean it is until

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.160
<v Speaker 1>it isn't right. At some point, enough players will go

0:14:45.200 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 1>over and people will talk it up and the fact

0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:51.960
<v Speaker 1>that or not the fact the argument that Saudi Arabia

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:56.360
<v Speaker 1>is greenwashing itself. Right, Um, we'll kind of just fall

0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 1>into the background and it'll it'll become whatever the players

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 1>make it to be. If enough players go over, then

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 1>it becomes its own thing. Well, and part of the

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.280
<v Speaker 1>problem is like not part of the problem. I think

0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>of Jamal ka Jogi, right, the journalist, and you saw

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.880
<v Speaker 1>the business community. Everybody pushed back, and then we've seen

0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the business community kind of go back to Saudi Arabia

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:15.840
<v Speaker 1>like it's interesting, right, I think that part of it.

0:15:16.000 --> 0:15:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I don't know. People talk about it and everyone gets

0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 1>asked about it, right, All the players who ever lived

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 1>get asked about it, and you know they've all gotten

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 1>very not comfortable. But there's a whole route where they're like,

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to talk about that. I'm not going to

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 1>talk about it, And after a while they stopped getting

0:15:29.480 --> 0:15:31.080
<v Speaker 1>asked about it and people just kind of move on.

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.720
<v Speaker 1>So it's going to be fatigued with this this line

0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 1>of questioning. After while, we knew we needed more time

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.000
<v Speaker 1>with you, but we've only got about a minute left

0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>here and we buried the lead. Serena Williams retiring, Yeah,

0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.040
<v Speaker 1>this is such a huge deal. Basically, I like how

0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.400
<v Speaker 1>you put it. Um, she is basically saying she can't

0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:47.640
<v Speaker 1>have it all right now. She wants to have a

0:15:47.640 --> 0:15:50.520
<v Speaker 1>second kid, and she can't do that while she plays

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.040
<v Speaker 1>tennis professionally, so she's going to hang up her tennis

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:57.240
<v Speaker 1>sneakers and UM, hearing that right, Because she's been such

0:15:57.280 --> 0:16:02.000
<v Speaker 1>an like for women, for fashional sports, like just incredible.

0:16:02.040 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>She's the highest earning female athlete, I mean, forget tennis player,

0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.120
<v Speaker 1>female athlete, and she is a force to be reckoned

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:11.400
<v Speaker 1>with the twenty three time Grand Slam champion, and she

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:13.520
<v Speaker 1>basically says, I don't think it's fair. If I were

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.120
<v Speaker 1>a guy, I wouldn't be saying this, writing this, because

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:18.440
<v Speaker 1>I'd be out there playing and winning while my wife

0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:20.920
<v Speaker 1>was doing the physical labor of expanding our family, and

0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:24.320
<v Speaker 1>she actually drew a comparison to Tom Brady. I was

0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 1>reading the story, I was I did not know that

0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.920
<v Speaker 1>she was married to the co founder Reddit, Alex Ohanien.

0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, come on, Alex, time for you to step up.

0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.200
<v Speaker 1>And he has been stepping up. He's been a big

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.960
<v Speaker 1>advocate for paid paternity leave. But this doesn't change the

0:16:35.960 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 1>fact that she had a really difficult pregnancy and she

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.480
<v Speaker 1>suffered from postpartum depression and it was really horrible for her,

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:44.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the whole thing of getting back on her

0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.160
<v Speaker 1>feet to her pregnancy. So she doesn't want to go

0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>through that again. Take your biology books, because as all

0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:51.160
<v Speaker 1>long as I know, men still can't have women. I mean,

0:16:51.200 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I mean what men can't have me? But

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:55.920
<v Speaker 1>you're right, in many cases men can't have women either.

0:16:56.000 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 1>But I don't have any comment on at us. Oh

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:03.360
<v Speaker 1>my god, Friday can't come too soon. We love you,

0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:07.520
<v Speaker 1>Scarlet Food. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovic on Bloomberg Radio. It's

0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:15.200
<v Speaker 1>a most read, it's a must read. It's the Bloomberg

0:17:15.200 --> 0:17:18.440
<v Speaker 1>Big take today. It's about how Europe's rivers are running dry,

0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:22.119
<v Speaker 1>disrupting eighty billion in trade routes. It really is a

0:17:22.240 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 1>sign of the unfortunate times. For this really important story,

0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.879
<v Speaker 1>we have Bloomberg News Oil Products reporter Jack Whittles. He

0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:32.160
<v Speaker 1>is joining us on the phone from London. Jack, good

0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:34.400
<v Speaker 1>to have you here with Mike Regan and myself. So

0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.639
<v Speaker 1>just lay it out the story, which you can find

0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.639
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg terminal and Bloomberg dot com slash big tape.

0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:44.840
<v Speaker 1>A lot of information tell us what's going on. Right,

0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.680
<v Speaker 1>So it is really hot in Europe. It's been a

0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 1>very hot summer and as a result, a lot of

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:55.240
<v Speaker 1>the river level was extremely low. Probably the most important

0:17:55.240 --> 0:17:59.800
<v Speaker 1>of them is a rhyme that's about eight hundred miles long.

0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.120
<v Speaker 1>It starts in the switch out, so it goes all

0:18:02.160 --> 0:18:05.239
<v Speaker 1>the way down through Europe to the North Sea, and

0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:08.160
<v Speaker 1>that is used to ship a lot of really important

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:13.080
<v Speaker 1>commodity through the continent, so talking energy, coal, gas oil, diesel, gasoline,

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>but also stuff like gravels, some men, iron, ore, you

0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:21.480
<v Speaker 1>know everything. And so when these when the water level

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.439
<v Speaker 1>on the Rhine gets really low, the barges that are

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.600
<v Speaker 1>used to transport all this stuff. They can't take on enough,

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:31.480
<v Speaker 1>they can't take on their full loads of these commodities

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.080
<v Speaker 1>because the more you load, the lower you get in

0:18:34.119 --> 0:18:36.280
<v Speaker 1>the water. And then when the river is really shallow, they'll,

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:39.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, they'll hit the bottom. So it's the low

0:18:39.320 --> 0:18:42.600
<v Speaker 1>water is really choking off the supply of energy and

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:46.440
<v Speaker 1>commodities in Europe, just as you know, just as there's

0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:49.480
<v Speaker 1>a war in Ukraine and we've got problems with Russian

0:18:49.520 --> 0:18:51.240
<v Speaker 1>gas supply. So it's it's a little bit of a

0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>perfect norm at the moment, you know, Jack, this strikes

0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.639
<v Speaker 1>me as a very difficult problem to solve, you know,

0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.800
<v Speaker 1>save doing a rain dance or something. I don't know

0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.119
<v Speaker 1>how you fix this. So I'm wondering is there any

0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:05.399
<v Speaker 1>sort of hope that this problem couldn't be solved or

0:19:05.440 --> 0:19:07.719
<v Speaker 1>is it more a matter of you know, shipping stuff

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:11.680
<v Speaker 1>via truck and rail instead? How are how are people

0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:17.080
<v Speaker 1>dealing with this? Right? So if there aren't many very

0:19:17.119 --> 0:19:19.880
<v Speaker 1>easy short term solutions for companies, you know you can't

0:19:19.880 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>You're right, you can. You can use rail, you can

0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:28.719
<v Speaker 1>use road. So you know, Switzerland, for instance, gets imports

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:30.680
<v Speaker 1>some oil products by the rhyme but it kind of

0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:34.720
<v Speaker 1>it doesn't also get through roads and rails, um and pipeline,

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>I believe, so companies can do that, but it's it's

0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.400
<v Speaker 1>much more expensive, so that's not always great. The economics

0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:43.840
<v Speaker 1>are not always going to look very good on that.

0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:47.160
<v Speaker 1>And the other thing companies can do is they can

0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:51.520
<v Speaker 1>invest in ships that are specifically designed to you to

0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:56.960
<v Speaker 1>go in shallow waters. Idea the chemicals company, they they've

0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>invested in a couple of ships to do that. But

0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.680
<v Speaker 1>it's not easy. And with climate change, I personally think

0:20:02.680 --> 0:20:05.119
<v Speaker 1>it's probably just going to get worse and worse, to

0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:07.239
<v Speaker 1>be honest. Well, and that's where I want to go,

0:20:07.400 --> 0:20:10.639
<v Speaker 1>because this wouldn't be happening. Is it fair for me

0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:15.280
<v Speaker 1>to make this jump if it wasn't for climate change? Right?

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:19.120
<v Speaker 1>If the rhine is fed by a combination of rain

0:20:19.440 --> 0:20:23.320
<v Speaker 1>and melting glass ears, and the more the you know,

0:20:23.760 --> 0:20:25.679
<v Speaker 1>the lower and lower the glass ears get, and then

0:20:25.760 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 1>the less they can feed the rhine. I'm I'm not

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:30.520
<v Speaker 1>a cinc climate scientist, so I'm not going to try

0:20:30.520 --> 0:20:33.240
<v Speaker 1>and say this specific event was pinned down to climate change,

0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:36.399
<v Speaker 1>but in general, that's the way it's going and and

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 1>it's I can only see it getting worse really, Right,

0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:41.240
<v Speaker 1>those alpine glaciers, right, they feed into all of this,

0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:43.560
<v Speaker 1>and we know, kind of to some extent, maybe some

0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:47.920
<v Speaker 1>of that's you know, going away. They're getting smaller. Yeah,

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:51.159
<v Speaker 1>they're getting smaller and smaller. Jack, I'm wondering where we

0:20:51.160 --> 0:20:54.119
<v Speaker 1>should look for this crisis to sort of have the

0:20:54.160 --> 0:20:56.480
<v Speaker 1>most potential damage. You know, is it a matter of

0:20:57.200 --> 0:21:01.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, BMW Mercedes not being able to produce cars

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.480
<v Speaker 1>at some point because they can't get supplies, or is

0:21:04.520 --> 0:21:07.440
<v Speaker 1>it there's something more acute, you know, like electricity going

0:21:07.480 --> 0:21:10.560
<v Speaker 1>off in Germany. Where where will this really start to

0:21:11.080 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 1>cause the most problems? Well, as an energy reporter, I

0:21:16.359 --> 0:21:18.879
<v Speaker 1>am convinced it is in the in the energy world

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:22.200
<v Speaker 1>lass of what you were saying. So you know, Switzerland,

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:25.680
<v Speaker 1>for instance, it's already said it's gonna it's already said

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:30.840
<v Speaker 1>it's releasing oil from its strategic reserves. Austria and Hungary

0:21:30.960 --> 0:21:33.240
<v Speaker 1>where during that sort of general neck of the woods

0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.600
<v Speaker 1>that also they've also said in recent months that they're

0:21:35.640 --> 0:21:38.400
<v Speaker 1>doing the same. You've had some refinery outages in those

0:21:38.440 --> 0:21:42.639
<v Speaker 1>areas as well, and so you know, the diesel market

0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:45.199
<v Speaker 1>in Europe is already very tight, and we are going

0:21:45.280 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 1>to lose well in theory, you is going to lose

0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.920
<v Speaker 1>supply from Russia in February as well that you sanctioned.

0:21:50.960 --> 0:21:54.040
<v Speaker 1>So on on oil it's tight, and then on any

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:57.960
<v Speaker 1>and you know, then on power as well. Uniper has

0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:00.920
<v Speaker 1>warned it may have to cut output to the cold

0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:04.080
<v Speaker 1>fired power plants in Germany because the company is struggling

0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:06.879
<v Speaker 1>to get the supplies along the line. So getting that

0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:09.920
<v Speaker 1>coal in to Germany to make the power and just

0:22:10.520 --> 0:22:13.840
<v Speaker 1>the gas gets cut off from Russia. That's another sort

0:22:13.840 --> 0:22:16.679
<v Speaker 1>of more immediate crisis. I would say, well, and I

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:18.560
<v Speaker 1>do think about it, right, with everything going on, I

0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:22.240
<v Speaker 1>mean that such a kind of tight energy situation because

0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:24.399
<v Speaker 1>of the Russian war in Ukraine. I mean, this is

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:30.080
<v Speaker 1>just another thing that exacerbates the situation for Europe overall.

0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>And I think of it interestingly enough, on a day

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:34.160
<v Speaker 1>when we've had an inflation print and we've seen energy

0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>prices coming off. But for Europe, it's just another thing

0:22:38.119 --> 0:22:43.800
<v Speaker 1>that adds to some of those inflationary pressures and just access. Yeah,

0:22:43.880 --> 0:22:46.359
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's it's it's too big subfice, right, It's

0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:49.640
<v Speaker 1>war and climate change and there's just no easy. There's

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:52.240
<v Speaker 1>no easy solutions to these sorts of problems in Europe.

0:22:52.280 --> 0:22:55.360
<v Speaker 1>At the moment, it's it's looking pretty bad, you know, Jack,

0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:58.240
<v Speaker 1>is this sort of fueling the whole debate about alternative

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:02.760
<v Speaker 1>energy in Europe and especially Germany? Are are people reconsidering

0:23:03.080 --> 0:23:07.920
<v Speaker 1>uh nuclear more aggressively because of this and everything else

0:23:07.960 --> 0:23:12.719
<v Speaker 1>going on in the world. I strongly imagine so. Um.

0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:14.800
<v Speaker 1>You know, I was talking to one one of my

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.880
<v Speaker 1>energy contacts recently and he was saying he was still

0:23:17.920 --> 0:23:23.480
<v Speaker 1>criticizing Germany's decision actually to shut off it's it's nuclear capacity,

0:23:23.720 --> 0:23:25.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, saying what a crazy time to do that.

0:23:26.480 --> 0:23:29.040
<v Speaker 1>And so I think this this will certainly spurred the

0:23:29.160 --> 0:23:32.919
<v Speaker 1>argument in general about renewable was doing it faster because

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:37.399
<v Speaker 1>nobody knew wants to be reliant on fossil foods, because

0:23:37.760 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 1>you're at the mercy of other countries and the mercy

0:23:40.760 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 1>of this sort of infrastructure that doesn't always hold up

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:45.720
<v Speaker 1>well under climate change. Of course, you also have to

0:23:45.760 --> 0:23:47.919
<v Speaker 1>wonder if you can't get the water to cool the reactors.

0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:52.119
<v Speaker 1>There a whole another issue that just embedded in that too,

0:23:52.520 --> 0:23:55.320
<v Speaker 1>Jack Whittles, do you feel like in five years, ten years,

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:58.119
<v Speaker 1>your job as an oil products reporter, it'll be a

0:23:58.160 --> 0:24:00.520
<v Speaker 1>different title because we were moved in recently, had a

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:05.880
<v Speaker 1>fossil fuels and just got about forty seconds left. Yeah yeah, well,

0:24:06.080 --> 0:24:08.240
<v Speaker 1>m I do wonder if I'll be a hydrogen report

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:11.960
<v Speaker 1>then stuff feel like that's maybe another big important commodity

0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:16.240
<v Speaker 1>coming down the line, especially in Europe, like do you

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:19.600
<v Speaker 1>know oil demand is ultimately on its way out the

0:24:19.720 --> 0:24:22.760
<v Speaker 1>demanded in other parts of the world, say well, as

0:24:22.680 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 1>a hydrogen report after a year like this, Jack is

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:31.280
<v Speaker 1>probably ready to cover entertainment or or something exactly. Jack Wittles,

0:24:31.320 --> 0:24:33.679
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Really appreciate your time. I know

0:24:33.680 --> 0:24:36.000
<v Speaker 1>it's little bit later there in London, oil products reporter

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:38.399
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News joining us on the phone from London.

0:24:38.440 --> 0:24:41.360
<v Speaker 1>As we mentioned, this is among our most read stories,

0:24:41.400 --> 0:24:43.440
<v Speaker 1>but more importantly, it's a Bloomberg big take, and that's

0:24:43.440 --> 0:24:45.520
<v Speaker 1>a story that our editorial team has marked as a

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.080
<v Speaker 1>must read by all. And be sure to check it

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:50.200
<v Speaker 1>out on the Bloomberg terminal and you can also find

0:24:50.240 --> 0:24:58.600
<v Speaker 1>it at Bloomberg dot com slash Big Tape Road Journal.

0:24:59.640 --> 0:25:04.960
<v Speaker 1>Now the you let me drive, no, no, no, I

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:16.320
<v Speaker 1>want to drive it? Good question. Drive is the Drive

0:25:16.400 --> 0:25:22.440
<v Speaker 1>to the Clothes on Bloomberg Radio. All Right, folks, just

0:25:22.480 --> 0:25:25.359
<v Speaker 1>about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session.

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:27.359
<v Speaker 1>Let's not forget too. We've got a big earnings report

0:25:27.400 --> 0:25:29.639
<v Speaker 1>coming out after the closing bell, just a few minutes

0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.439
<v Speaker 1>after the close. We're talking about Disney, so we'll be

0:25:32.440 --> 0:25:35.200
<v Speaker 1>looking certainly at their streaming services and a lot more

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 1>and all their moving parts. What it says about the consumer.

0:25:37.520 --> 0:25:41.160
<v Speaker 1>Will break it down with our TV colleagues. In the meantime,

0:25:41.280 --> 0:25:44.439
<v Speaker 1>let's break down as we moved closer to that closing bell.

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.159
<v Speaker 1>Allen Lance is back with us. He's director of research

0:25:47.240 --> 0:25:49.760
<v Speaker 1>at Lance Global dot com, President of Allen BI Lance

0:25:49.800 --> 0:25:52.200
<v Speaker 1>and Associates. He joins us once again on the phone

0:25:52.240 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 1>from Toledo, Ohio. Alan, you're here with myself and Mike Reagan.

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:59.920
<v Speaker 1>Tim is off today. Um uppeat day? Where because I

0:26:00.000 --> 0:26:03.040
<v Speaker 1>did about you know, still a hot inflation print, but

0:26:03.119 --> 0:26:05.919
<v Speaker 1>not as hot as somebody, you know, as as most expected.

0:26:06.240 --> 0:26:09.200
<v Speaker 1>And we've seen certainly a risk on trade today. How

0:26:09.200 --> 0:26:14.040
<v Speaker 1>do you see it? I think it's when we're seeing

0:26:14.119 --> 0:26:17.280
<v Speaker 1>Carol or extremes, you know, and now I think there

0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:20.280
<v Speaker 1>might be an overreaction going into you know, a solid

0:26:20.359 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 1>CPI report and interest rates, you know, um over reaction

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:29.000
<v Speaker 1>by equities. Yeah yeah, yeah, just like in in April

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:32.080
<v Speaker 1>and when we talked and commodities were moving up and

0:26:32.119 --> 0:26:35.280
<v Speaker 1>everybody was talking you know, inflation like the nineteen seventies

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:38.160
<v Speaker 1>and and and you know that you could see that

0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:41.200
<v Speaker 1>that was going to be a peak in commodities and

0:26:41.200 --> 0:26:45.240
<v Speaker 1>and energy and was up as a sector, et cetera.

0:26:45.520 --> 0:26:48.280
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, now it's it's the other end

0:26:48.320 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 1>of the spectrum. We're all of a sudden, now one

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 1>CPI report and now you know, inflation is is calm

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:58.480
<v Speaker 1>and taking care of etcetera. So for some reason investors,

0:26:59.000 --> 0:27:02.720
<v Speaker 1>you know it memes stocks are back and and uh,

0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:06.879
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just it's just a total exaggeration, just

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 1>like in April that you know, we had inflation like

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:14.160
<v Speaker 1>the seventies. Now it's uh, you know, no inflation, and

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:17.639
<v Speaker 1>and uh an upward market. And I would be wary,

0:27:17.800 --> 0:27:20.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, you know, I think there's still pockets to

0:27:20.480 --> 0:27:23.520
<v Speaker 1>make money and and and there's been some good sectors

0:27:23.560 --> 0:27:25.879
<v Speaker 1>to invest in. And I'm glad we did this summer,

0:27:26.359 --> 0:27:28.800
<v Speaker 1>but I wouldn't be chasing you know some of these

0:27:29.040 --> 0:27:31.840
<v Speaker 1>and if you're overexposed, uh, like a lot a lot

0:27:31.880 --> 0:27:34.679
<v Speaker 1>of investors were going into the year, Um, you know,

0:27:34.720 --> 0:27:39.880
<v Speaker 1>I would be reducing risk. Um. So we're not as

0:27:39.920 --> 0:27:43.359
<v Speaker 1>negative as we were going into two. But the higher

0:27:43.720 --> 0:27:46.800
<v Speaker 1>prices and values rise here, the more concerned we'd be,

0:27:47.280 --> 0:27:50.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, Alan obviously, Uh, such an important story this year,

0:27:50.440 --> 0:27:53.680
<v Speaker 1>not only for the inflation and economic side of the equation,

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:58.280
<v Speaker 1>but market leadership in fact has been the oil price rally. Uh.

0:27:58.400 --> 0:28:01.800
<v Speaker 1>Now coming back to earth. I was reading your latest newsletter.

0:28:01.840 --> 0:28:03.440
<v Speaker 1>You say, you know, if anyone would have stated ten

0:28:03.520 --> 0:28:06.240
<v Speaker 1>years prior that in we would start to make energy

0:28:06.280 --> 0:28:10.760
<v Speaker 1>our most emphasized sector, we would have responded not very likely.

0:28:11.000 --> 0:28:13.520
<v Speaker 1>I think you're probably not alone in those sentiments. But

0:28:13.680 --> 0:28:18.680
<v Speaker 1>how are you thinking about oil, gasoline, energy stocks now

0:28:19.160 --> 0:28:22.320
<v Speaker 1>going forward? That it does seem uh knock on wood,

0:28:22.359 --> 0:28:26.520
<v Speaker 1>that these aggressive price gains and gasoline and oil at

0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:30.120
<v Speaker 1>least for the moments, seem to have come back to earth. Yeah,

0:28:30.119 --> 0:28:32.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that could be an opportunity. So just like

0:28:32.600 --> 0:28:35.439
<v Speaker 1>we're talking earlier, like the you know, might be an

0:28:35.480 --> 0:28:38.360
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to reduce risk, uh, you know, or take some

0:28:38.400 --> 0:28:41.080
<v Speaker 1>profits and and and some of these you know stocks

0:28:41.080 --> 0:28:44.600
<v Speaker 1>that have done so well. Um, you know, energy gets

0:28:44.960 --> 0:28:47.560
<v Speaker 1>hit you know further here. I think over the long

0:28:47.640 --> 0:28:51.120
<v Speaker 1>term there's some select you know opportunities there and and

0:28:51.160 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>we we'd be buyers just like we were the past

0:28:53.640 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 1>two years in the weakness. So so that's a nice

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:58.520
<v Speaker 1>thing about this market. It is given you, you know,

0:28:58.560 --> 0:29:02.000
<v Speaker 1>a discipline investor a chance to you know, take advantage

0:29:02.000 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 1>of these swings. It's just a matter of the swings

0:29:04.920 --> 0:29:07.960
<v Speaker 1>are so much more extreme than you know we ever anticipated.

0:29:08.240 --> 0:29:10.440
<v Speaker 1>And some of that, you know, it's the Russia, Ukraine,

0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, situation, et cetera. Everything's getting accelerated and the

0:29:14.440 --> 0:29:18.840
<v Speaker 1>supply you know, a side shortage and and items like that.

0:29:19.040 --> 0:29:23.240
<v Speaker 1>So so and that's why you know ninevent type inflation

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:26.480
<v Speaker 1>you know that was you know built into the cards

0:29:26.800 --> 0:29:29.040
<v Speaker 1>in April. You know, didn't make sense either because we

0:29:29.120 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>knew some of those we were temporary. Um. But you know,

0:29:33.440 --> 0:29:36.479
<v Speaker 1>I I think you know, eventually reality will set in

0:29:36.480 --> 0:29:39.720
<v Speaker 1>back in the market and you'll see that and tion

0:29:39.800 --> 0:29:43.320
<v Speaker 1>is not you know gone forever, and uh, interest rates

0:29:43.320 --> 0:29:45.680
<v Speaker 1>are still going to go up and and you know

0:29:45.800 --> 0:29:49.600
<v Speaker 1>the market will will react and and energy will will

0:29:49.640 --> 0:29:52.680
<v Speaker 1>again move up. So so any weakness into into energy

0:29:52.800 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 1>quality energy with the income uh and with their current valuations,

0:29:56.960 --> 0:29:59.520
<v Speaker 1>I think it would be a smart move. I also

0:29:59.600 --> 0:30:04.080
<v Speaker 1>noticed you, uh you liking Goldman stocks stock these days?

0:30:04.120 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 1>What what's the story there? What's got you attracted to Goldman?

0:30:08.560 --> 0:30:10.840
<v Speaker 1>That's funny. You know we we we bought it in

0:30:10.840 --> 0:30:13.600
<v Speaker 1>in November two thousand nine, you know, in the midst

0:30:13.640 --> 0:30:16.360
<v Speaker 1>of the global financial crisis, and we just said, you know,

0:30:16.400 --> 0:30:19.480
<v Speaker 1>anytime you can get Goldman underbook, uh, you know, it's

0:30:19.840 --> 0:30:22.360
<v Speaker 1>a smart move. And and you know this summer it

0:30:22.400 --> 0:30:25.000
<v Speaker 1>was trading underbook again. And and I think you know

0:30:25.200 --> 0:30:27.760
<v Speaker 1>for investors that sometimes you get out of the market

0:30:27.760 --> 0:30:29.840
<v Speaker 1>and you know, get back in, you get worried, and

0:30:30.400 --> 0:30:33.160
<v Speaker 1>then it's it's difficult. So so you've got to use

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:36.520
<v Speaker 1>these discipline strategies. So when when you get this high quality,

0:30:36.600 --> 0:30:40.160
<v Speaker 1>good good income producers that uh uh you know are cheap,

0:30:40.240 --> 0:30:43.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, take advantage and buy them. And I think

0:30:43.200 --> 0:30:45.760
<v Speaker 1>that that's what we're seeing. I think the financials are

0:30:45.880 --> 0:30:48.760
<v Speaker 1>an area that you know, we'll we'll do well and

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:51.320
<v Speaker 1>and uh, you know, some areas like H and R

0:30:51.400 --> 0:30:53.600
<v Speaker 1>block you know that we've owned you know for years

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>we'd be more inclined to take profits into the spike

0:30:57.040 --> 0:30:59.440
<v Speaker 1>stocks almost double this year in a bad market. And

0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:01.560
<v Speaker 1>let's that's I think you say that. We just talked

0:31:01.560 --> 0:31:03.600
<v Speaker 1>with Jeff Jones, the CEO of H and R Block,

0:31:03.600 --> 0:31:05.320
<v Speaker 1>and that's one of the things we talked about, the

0:31:05.360 --> 0:31:08.400
<v Speaker 1>stock doubling. Would you just take profit because man, what

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>a run? Why not? Or is it something more fundamental

0:31:11.240 --> 0:31:12.840
<v Speaker 1>or do you believe fundamentally in the H and R

0:31:12.920 --> 0:31:17.240
<v Speaker 1>Black story. Oh, you know, I think it's a you know,

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:20.920
<v Speaker 1>it's an interesting story, but just yeah, evaluation wise, Carol,

0:31:21.200 --> 0:31:23.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're just gonna be discipline. I'd rather have

0:31:23.880 --> 0:31:27.400
<v Speaker 1>my money in Goldman, you know, or below book than

0:31:27.640 --> 0:31:30.680
<v Speaker 1>an agent or block at the stage. And the things

0:31:30.680 --> 0:31:33.720
<v Speaker 1>that were attracted to us when we first bought it

0:31:33.800 --> 0:31:36.320
<v Speaker 1>at half the price was you know, the income stream

0:31:36.400 --> 0:31:39.840
<v Speaker 1>and and that it was unrecognized on on Wall Street. Well,

0:31:39.920 --> 0:31:42.600
<v Speaker 1>now you know, the cats out of the bag and

0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:45.800
<v Speaker 1>the company is doing well and they did, you know,

0:31:45.880 --> 0:31:49.840
<v Speaker 1>getting into other services that you know, provided high margins,

0:31:49.920 --> 0:31:53.600
<v Speaker 1>so so everything fell into place. So you know, partial

0:31:53.640 --> 0:31:56.200
<v Speaker 1>profit profit taking at least, you know, makes it makes

0:31:56.200 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of sense. And for investors that are uh,

0:31:59.240 --> 0:32:02.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, more concerned about risk. You know, we're taking

0:32:02.400 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>full profits just from the standpoint that uh uh you know,

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:08.200
<v Speaker 1>there's definitely a lot more risk and execution now than

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 1>it was, you know, when the stock was half the price.

0:32:10.560 --> 0:32:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Well always, as we say, we really love checking in

0:32:13.120 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 1>with you, so thank you so much, Allen Lance. He

0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:17.760
<v Speaker 1>is director of Research at LANTS Global dot com, President

0:32:17.760 --> 0:32:20.920
<v Speaker 1>of Allen BI Lance and Associates. Thanks for listening to

0:32:20.960 --> 0:32:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or

0:32:24.560 --> 0:32:26.719
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our

0:32:26.800 --> 0:32:29.400
<v Speaker 1>radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or

0:32:29.400 --> 0:32:32.040
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