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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: President Trump speaking live to members of his cabinet at

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Speaker 2: the White House. We wanted to spend some time listening

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Speaker 2: to the President there about a range of issues and

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Speaker 2: specifically what's happening with regard to a ceasefire in Israel.

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Speaker 2: The beginning of his remarks were focused on Israel, and

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Speaker 2: we moved to the shutdown this is day nine, among

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Speaker 2: other issues. We'll return to the room if he does

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Speaker 2: turn things over to questions from reporters who.

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Speaker 3: Are actually in the Cabinet room today.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew and Washington. Thanks for being with us

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Speaker 2: on Balance of Power Thursday edition. Michelle Jamrisco is with

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Speaker 2: me here in the Nation's capital, so too is Tyler Kendall,

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Speaker 2: our Washington correspondent. Tyler would typically be at the White House,

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Speaker 2: but we're lucky to have her in studio today, having

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Speaker 2: made her way back over to the Bureau here.

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Speaker 3: Not a lot of news here.

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Speaker 2: In fact, there's still a lot of questions Tyler about

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Speaker 2: the makeup of this ceasefire plan that has now apparently

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Speaker 2: been accepted by Hamas and the start of implementation by Israel.

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Speaker 2: Considering the questions we have though, for the President to

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Speaker 2: be preparing to get on Air Force one and fly

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Speaker 2: there personally, it's pretty remarkable.

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Speaker 4: Definitely, Joe, including whether or not Hamas is going to disarm,

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Speaker 4: whether or not this ceasefire will hold. There's still a

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Speaker 4: lot of big questions going forward here when it comes

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Speaker 4: to it comes to this, but it is clear that

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Speaker 4: the White House really does want to show this forward progress.

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Speaker 4: And I found it interesting that we just heard President Trump,

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Speaker 4: in these remarks during the Cabinet meeting call out these

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Speaker 4: regional partners, including Qatar in Egypt. We know that this

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Speaker 4: administration has been really working closely with those regional partners.

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Speaker 4: We saw it really highlighted during the UN General Assembly,

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Speaker 4: for example, President Trump holding what turned out to be

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Speaker 4: a very consequential meeting on the sidelines to get the

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Speaker 4: backing of these other nations. I'd point out that back

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Speaker 4: in May we saw President Trump become the first sitting

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Speaker 4: US president to visit Qatar, and I think that is

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Speaker 4: really one of the themes that we're going to see

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Speaker 4: moving forward here when it comes to some of these

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Speaker 4: big questions about maintaining peace and stability in the region.

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Speaker 4: How is the US engaging more broadly, perhaps with these

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Speaker 4: other partners.

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Speaker 5: Well, Tyler, if this trip does come to fruition, we'll

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Speaker 5: have the president abroad, perhaps even speaking to lawmakers on

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Speaker 5: that side. At the same time, as this shutdown seems

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Speaker 5: to have no end in sight, did we hear anything

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Speaker 5: from the President today or in the past forty eight

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Speaker 5: hours that you think will change that.

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Speaker 4: Well, at this point, our understanding is these negotiations, any

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Speaker 4: sort of talks, they're all informal, and they're happening, perhaps

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Speaker 4: on a bipartisan basis, but they're behind the scenes and

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Speaker 4: they are not at this leadership level. We know that

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Speaker 4: the pressure is mounting here. Perhaps interesting to hear President

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Speaker 4: Trump there say we will be making permanent cuts due

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Speaker 4: to the shutdown. That's one of the headlines that's crossing

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Speaker 4: the Bloomberg terminal. We know that's part of this pressure

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Speaker 4: campaign that's going to perhaps add fuel to the fiery

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Speaker 4: the other is whether or not federal workers are going

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Speaker 4: to get to their back pay. I had the chance

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Speaker 4: to ask President Trump directly yesterday whether or not members

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Speaker 4: of the military are going to get paid, because Joe

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Speaker 4: and Michelle, we are now less than one week away

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Speaker 4: from that potential missed paycheck, that's October fifteenth. The President

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Speaker 4: said he thinks military pay in particular will be resolved

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Speaker 4: by then, but at this point, with no indication from leadership,

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Speaker 4: it's unclear what that path forward is going to look like.

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Speaker 2: Well, as you were asking questions of the President yesterday

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Speaker 2: at the Antifa round table, I was speaking with the

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Speaker 2: Speaker of the House and brought up these very same issues,

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Speaker 2: including back pay for federal workers who have been furloughed.

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Speaker 2: This is suddenly up for debate, apparently, and Washington, the

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Speaker 2: President and his omb Director Russ Vote began questioning the

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Speaker 2: law on the books as to whether that guarantees back

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Speaker 2: pay for furloughed workers. And it was part of my

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Speaker 2: conversation here with the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 2: We're going to hear from Johnson and HOKK Jeffries, who

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Speaker 2: also spoke to Bloomberg today.

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Speaker 3: Let's start with the Speaker.

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Speaker 6: There's different legal analyzes that are floating around right now,

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Speaker 6: and I've been so busy with this haven't had a

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Speaker 6: chance to dig into it.

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Speaker 3: I am a lawyer.

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Speaker 6: I'm looking forward to reading through that because I kind

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Speaker 6: of get into all the scholarship side of this. It

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Speaker 6: has always been my understanding that the law requires furloughed

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Speaker 6: workers to receive back pay, and of course that's been

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Speaker 6: the tradition. And I'm not sure exactly what the President

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Speaker 6: is referring to there there. I haven't had a chance

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Speaker 6: to talk to him about that specific issue yet, but

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Speaker 6: we will. I can tell you this though, the view

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Speaker 6: of the White House, the view of the President himself,

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Speaker 6: is that he doesn't want federal workers to be used

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Speaker 6: as ponds.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 6: We've got some great, patriotic Americans who work for our

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Speaker 6: agencies and provide essential services to the people. They should

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Speaker 6: not suffer the harms of people who want to pay

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Speaker 6: political games. And I think this is really important principle

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Speaker 6: for us to advance.

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Speaker 2: Do you worry about mass layoffs coming as early as

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Speaker 2: next week and that actually poisoning the well even more

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Speaker 2: between Republicans and Democrats?

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Speaker 3: What would be the impact of a move like that.

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Speaker 6: Well, look, I'm worried about all sorts of adverse effects

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Speaker 6: because of how it affects the American people. We had

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Speaker 6: some analysis today that every week that the Democrats shut

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Speaker 6: down continues, we could lose fifteen billion dollars in gross

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Speaker 6: domestic product. I mean, it's a real hit for real people,

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Speaker 6: and it has a reverberating effect. And if you keep

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Speaker 6: it closed for a month, then one of the estimates

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Speaker 6: I saw today is you lose forty three thousand civilian employees.

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Speaker 6: You know, because it has a ripple effect throughout the economy.

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Speaker 6: We can't afford to do that. Right now, things were

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Speaker 6: going in the right direction, and this is a terrible

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Speaker 6: setback for the country. It also has implications for national security.

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Speaker 6: I mean, you look at things like nuclear deterrence with

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Speaker 6: those programs are stalled right now, right and every day

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Speaker 6: you do that, it has real world consequences for us.

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Speaker 6: Not a game, and we need to end it right now.

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Speaker 6: I know that you've said it's.

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Speaker 2: A house Republicans at least reportedly that you would give

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Speaker 2: them forty eight hours notice if they had to come

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Speaker 2: back into town. When folks left following the vote on

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Speaker 2: the CR in the House. If they're talking next door

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Speaker 2: in the Senate, if some of deal is broker that

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Speaker 2: might alter the CR as it stands. Now, do you

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Speaker 2: plan to call your members back?

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Speaker 6: Look, devil's in the details, but I don't know how

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Speaker 6: they could possibly alter it. We made it so simple

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Speaker 6: there Again, there is nothing to take off of that.

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Speaker 6: It is virtually identical to what Chuck Schumer himself championed

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Speaker 6: in March of this year. And so we're not going

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Speaker 6: to strap on extraneous policy issues and all of that.

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Speaker 3: That would take a long time.

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Speaker 6: Because the government's now closed down, they need to pass

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Speaker 6: the clean CR, turn the likes back on, and get

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Speaker 6: everybody back to work. I'm just so frustrated with the

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Speaker 6: nonsense around this, and I think more and more people

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Speaker 6: at Homer as well. I saw a RAS must And

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Speaker 6: poll that came out a couple hours ago. Forty nine

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Speaker 6: percent of the American people were polled so that Democrats

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Speaker 6: did this to give benefits to illegal aliens.

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Speaker 7: They are not wrong.

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Speaker 6: Two hundred billion dollars in their counter proposal would pay

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Speaker 6: illegal aliens the benefits that hard earned, hardworking American taxpayers provide.

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Speaker 3: We're not doing that.

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Speaker 6: We're not going to add a trillion and a half

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Speaker 6: new dollars to spending. We're not taking Chuck Schumer's ridiculous counterproposal.

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Speaker 6: We're going to do the right thing for the people,

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Speaker 6: and the Republicans are on the job to do it.

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Speaker 2: I know you had a couple of visitors at your

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Speaker 2: office today, mister Speaker, a couple of Democratic Senators, I

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Speaker 2: believe Kelly and Diego had a lot of things to

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Speaker 2: say about the swearing in of a new member of

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Speaker 2: Congress from Arizona. I also saw Congressman Mike Lawler from

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Speaker 2: New York get into an altercation with HACKEM Jeffries as

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Speaker 2: he was coming out of his office here. I know

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Speaker 2: that elbows can be sharp on Capitol Hill, But mister.

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Speaker 3: Speaker, what's happened to decorum? Is this a new loan look?

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Speaker 6: I work on decorum around here all the time. Everybody

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Speaker 6: knows that's my record. I started it when I came

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Speaker 6: to Washington in January twenty seventeen. I authored the Honor

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Speaker 6: and Civility Caucus Pledge and the Commitment to Civility. I mean,

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Speaker 6: we have to maintain this. There fights about policy, but

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Speaker 6: it shouldn't be personal. I try to model that myself.

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Speaker 6: I try to encourage colleagues to do it. But I

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Speaker 6: would tell you the tension here is very high because

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Speaker 6: it's high because the stakes are so high, and you

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Speaker 6: got real mirrors, real constituents back home who are really

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Speaker 6: suffering because of the nonsense, and it gets gets us

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Speaker 6: upset here sometimes. You know, I understand that emotion. We've

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Speaker 6: got to keep it in check. We've got to get

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Speaker 6: everybody working together. We've got to get the.

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Speaker 3: Lights back off.

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Speaker 2: So get the lights back on. Easier said than done

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Speaker 2: here in Washington. The Speaker of the House talking with

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Speaker 2: us here on balance of power. That was the late

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Speaker 2: edition yesterday, Michelle jam Risco. The talking points are pretty

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Speaker 2: tight when you're dealing with any Republican lawmaker, and of

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Speaker 2: course he's providing a lot of them, so really crystallizing

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Speaker 2: the arguments on the Republican side of things. You can

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Speaker 2: sense the frustration. I spoke with Senator Mike Brown's last evening.

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Speaker 2: You could sense disappointment. Everyone feels kind of deflated right

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Speaker 2: now with no clear offering.

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Speaker 5: Well, and you asked them about decorum, and you also

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Speaker 5: asked them about a few perhaps windows of opening room

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Speaker 5: for negotiation on confirmation of lawmakers and on healthcare. And

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Speaker 5: I think you know as a lawyer, Mike Johnson had

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Speaker 5: a ready argument.

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Speaker 7: As you say, he had all the talking points set up.

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Speaker 7: He may his argument pretty articulately. But the one point

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Speaker 7: where I.

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Speaker 5: Saw I thought I saw some daylight and you're cracking

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Speaker 5: his argument was when you asked him about the healthcare negotiations,

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Speaker 5: why not order up or pledge to have a vote

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Speaker 5: on that and let this thing kind of play out,

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Speaker 5: and he said he couldn't do that due to process.

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Speaker 7: That seems a little suspect. Well, you and I both know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's the boss and he can do what he

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Speaker 2: wants there. But obviously they're not going to budge on this,

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Speaker 2: at least not yet. And when you listen to Haking Jeffries,

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Speaker 2: you really get a sense of the distance between these two.

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Speaker 2: When Mike Lawler showed up at Hakeing Jeffrey's office yesterday

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Speaker 2: waving bills at him and it turned into a screaming

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Speaker 2: mash I mean heard of the minority leader tell him

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Speaker 2: to shut your mouth. Was a pretty stark moment. And

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Speaker 2: it was happening again while two Democratic Senators were standing

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Speaker 2: in front of the Speaker's office trying to do the

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Speaker 2: same thing about the swearing in of a congresswoman, liket

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Speaker 2: Rialva over the Epstein files.

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Speaker 3: This could get worse, by the way in.

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Speaker 7: The day's unfriendly terms. Right now, I think we.

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Speaker 2: Can say at least, yeah, let's hear from Jefferys. He

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Speaker 2: was on Bloomberg's surveillance this morning, the Democratic leader in

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Speaker 2: the House with the other side of the story here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: Listen.

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Speaker 8: Our view, certainly in the House is that we will

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Speaker 8: evaluate in good faith any bipartisan proposal that is sent

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Speaker 8: over to us from the Senate if it decisively addresses

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Speaker 8: the Republican healthcare crisis with respect to the Affordable Care Act,

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Speaker 8: tax credits, extensions, or any other issues that may be

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Speaker 8: put on the table. Because of the enormity of the

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Speaker 8: attack on the healthcare of the American people that Republicans

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Speaker 8: have waged this year, it's got to be meaningful. It's

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Speaker 8: got to actually improve the lives of the American people.

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Speaker 8: But unlike Republicans who have adopted this my way or

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Speaker 8: the highway approach, we are actually willing to sit down

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Speaker 8: and evaluate in good faith anything that could advance the

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Speaker 8: ball here for working class Americans, middle class Americans, and

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Speaker 8: everyday Americans.

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Speaker 9: Is there an opportunity for standalone legislation to make sure

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Speaker 9: that the more than one million active duty service members

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Speaker 9: get paid next week.

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Speaker 8: Certainly, our view in the House is that we should

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Speaker 8: stand by our men and women in uniform and make

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Speaker 8: sure that they do not miss a paycheck. Unfortunately, Speaker

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Speaker 8: Johnson has ruled that out, saying it's not really an

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Speaker 8: issue that he's prepared to deal with, in part because

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Speaker 8: Republicans cancel votes last week, cancel votes this week, Apparently

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Speaker 8: they may not be coming back next week. And what

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Speaker 8: is that all for. Why are they on vacation in

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Speaker 8: the middle of a government shutdown, particularly as it relates

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Speaker 8: to the real possibility that our military families might miss

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Speaker 8: a paycheck that they cannot afford to miss. We're urging

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Speaker 8: Republicans to get back into town, allow us to deal

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Speaker 8: with the military pay issue, allow us to deal with

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Speaker 8: the Republican healthcare crisis, and allow us to reopen the

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Speaker 8: government so we can enact the spending agreement that meets

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Speaker 8: the needs of the American people.

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Speaker 9: Jeffries, we also saw a pretty explosive argument between you

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Speaker 9: and the fellow New York Congressman Mike Lawler, and then

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Speaker 9: you proceeded to call Lawler an embarrassment on television. Was

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Speaker 9: this fight representative of the state tensions that are going

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Speaker 9: on within the Republican Party in New York State right now?

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Speaker 8: Well, mag and Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He's

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Speaker 8: a clout chaser, and he was stalking the Democratic leadership

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Speaker 8: press conference in ways that are unhinged. And you know,

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Speaker 8: at the end of the day, our view is the

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Speaker 8: people who need to sit down and have the conversation

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Speaker 8: with US Republican leadership in the House and in the Senate.

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Speaker 8: The Trump administration, including the President or the Vice President

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Speaker 8: or anyone that they designate, are the ones who are

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Speaker 8: ultimately going to determine how we can find a biprotisan

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Speaker 8: path out of it. And we look forward to having

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Speaker 8: those conversations. But unfortunately Republicans to date have declined to

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Speaker 8: do that.

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Speaker 9: Well, what was he doing that you deem on Hinge?

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Speaker 7: And have you spoken to him since? Have tensions cooled?

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Speaker 7: It doesn't sound like they have, isn't it?

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Speaker 8: Relevant individual? And as I indicated, his behavior clearly speaks

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Speaker 8: for itself. Complete and total embarrassment as a description was

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Speaker 8: a polite use of words.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Hakeem Jeffreys coming off his encounter with Congressman Mike Lawler,

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Speaker 2: of course, the Republican from New York. Great conversation and

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Speaker 2: thanks to Anne Marie Hordern. That was from Bloomberg surveillance

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Speaker 2: earlier this morning. Stay with us on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on

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Speaker 1: Alma Corkley and Android Atto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: We're joining the meantime by Laura Davison, our deputy Bureau

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Speaker 2: chief here in Washington. We might have to put pads

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Speaker 2: on to continue covering this. Laura, what did you make

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Speaker 2: of the day in Washington yesterday with these encounters taking

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Speaker 2: place on Capitol Hill. It's like the stages of grief

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Speaker 2: and apparently we're in the anger stage.

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Speaker 10: We're in the anger stage, and also we're in the

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Speaker 10: stunt stage. Remember if the house has been out, they

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Speaker 10: have not actually had any votes. The Senate really also

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Speaker 10: has it that had that much work to do. Because

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Speaker 10: we're still in the messaging phase of the shutdown. We're

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Speaker 10: not anywhere near, it seems, the deal making stage. So

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Speaker 10: this is when you see a lawmakers start behaving badly.

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Speaker 10: They don't have enough work. It's a little bit like children.

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Speaker 10: You need to make sure they're fully occupied, just stay

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Speaker 10: on track.

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Speaker 5: So we've been talking a lot about the pressure points

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Speaker 5: at this phase. We talk a lot about furloughs, worker

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Speaker 5: back pay, especially the military paid deadline.

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Speaker 7: Flight delays.

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Speaker 5: Is are any of these factors kind of growing in

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Speaker 5: importance to these lawmakers who might still be swayed in

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Speaker 5: one way or another.

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Speaker 10: The flight delays, that is the number one thing to

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Speaker 10: watch one because that's when they're going to start to

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Speaker 10: hear the outrage from their constituents, and that affects, you know, everyone,

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Speaker 10: no matter where your district is. You know, the worker

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Speaker 10: pay issue, the federal worker pay issue, you know, that

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Speaker 10: is also a massive issue. You know, you've got military

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Speaker 10: bases and federal workers spread out across the country. You know,

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Speaker 10: some more than eighty five percent or federal workers aren't

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Speaker 10: in Washington, d C. So it's not just a you know,

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Speaker 10: local Maryland, Virginia issue. This is this is nationwide, but

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Speaker 10: it still is you know, only about you know, two

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Speaker 10: to three million people that are getting a paycheck from

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Speaker 10: the federal government that aren't getting that paycheck as the

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Speaker 10: shutdown persists.

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Speaker 7: But the flight delays will be will be huge.

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Speaker 10: There's also more niche areas, but that could have real

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Speaker 10: effects for people. You know, the flood insurance program is

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Speaker 10: essentially breaking down during the shutdown. We're not seeing economic

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Speaker 10: data come out, which you know thinks, oh, that's only

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Speaker 10: important for you know, economists in Wall Street, but this

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Speaker 10: also affects the Social Security cost of living increase that

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Speaker 10: they would calculate in this fall. That's very important for

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Speaker 10: a lot of people, you know, who are on Social Security.

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Speaker 10: They want to see what they're increase is going to

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Speaker 10: be for the coming year. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 10: little details here that the longer this goes on, the

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Speaker 10: longer this piles up, the more outrage hits. And we're

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Speaker 10: at that point where lawmakers are kind of trying to

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Speaker 10: figure out, you know, how long can we withhold before

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Speaker 10: constituents are really mad?

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Speaker 3: What do we make of the debate here over back pay.

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Speaker 3: This is what the White House.

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Speaker 2: Got people talking about yesterday, that maybe there's not a

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Speaker 2: guarantee as we thought was codified by law to give

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Speaker 2: backpay to federal workers post furlough. Speaker Johnson sounded a

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Speaker 2: lot like Donald Trump there, having said they deserve backpay.

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Speaker 2: When we asked him about it last evening, he said

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Speaker 2: that there are different interpretations floating around there and he

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Speaker 2: hasn't quite read up on it yet.

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Speaker 3: Is this about to change?

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Speaker 10: This is by interpretation of Johnson's comments there is that

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Speaker 10: Republicans on the Hill are deeply uncomfortable with this idea

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Speaker 10: that federal workers might not get paid. You know, those

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Speaker 10: are their constituents. Trump, from his purchase the White House

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Speaker 10: is seeing this as much more of a you know,

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Speaker 10: here's a way to sort of, you know, put pressure

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Speaker 10: on Democrats. This is something of that Rouss vote the

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Speaker 10: White House Budget Director has been very keen to do

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Speaker 10: as a way to sort of really kind of hit

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Speaker 10: Democrats where it hurts. But when you actually see lawmakers,

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Speaker 10: they do not want to do this. And this is

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Speaker 10: you know, and much less it probably is a legal

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Speaker 10: there's a law that Trump himself signed back in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 10: You know, of course, the Trump Admistration's not been afraid of,

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Speaker 10: you know, testing these these boundaries. You know, if they

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Speaker 10: do it wild almost certainly be litigated. So unclear you

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Speaker 10: know exactly how that would play out, but this is

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Speaker 10: this was a that's one of the more far fetched

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Speaker 10: things that they could do.

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Speaker 5: Do you think we'll see any movement in the days ahead,

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Speaker 5: especially as the president is headed off into the Middle East.

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Speaker 5: He's made these threats of you know, Democrat programs as

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Speaker 5: he just called them in the cabinet meeting. He's also

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Speaker 5: talked about potentially mass firings, you know, to the people

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Speaker 5: that are not being taken care of, are not his people.

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Speaker 7: Will we see any movement on that while.

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Speaker 5: He's out, you know, trying to achieve Middle East peace

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Speaker 5: or do you think that's something that would be left

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Speaker 5: for him when he returns.

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Speaker 10: This is a big question because you know, the President

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Speaker 10: has been quite distracted with you know, with the Gaza deal,

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Speaker 10: with a bunch of other issues that he hasn't really

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Speaker 10: been you know, fully plugged into all of the shutdown talks.

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Speaker 10: What we've seen so far right now have been a

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Speaker 10: bunch of threats We've you know, seen the President say

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Speaker 10: multiple times he's going to fire mass workers early this week.

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Speaker 10: He said, in four or five days he'll make a

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Speaker 10: decision that that deadline may end up falling when he's

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Speaker 10: in the Middle East. He heard that a couple times, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 10: And you know what we have started to see is

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Speaker 10: russ vote calling to cancel certain funding for projects, transit

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Speaker 10: projects in New York and Chicago, clean energy funding. So

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Speaker 10: we could see more of that while the President is away.

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Speaker 10: But some of these bigger, you know, very politically explosive announcements,

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Speaker 10: it would be surprising, to say the least, to see

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Speaker 10: that happen while the President is really rejoicing and cutting

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Speaker 10: this this Middle East piece deal.

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Speaker 2: What will be the conversation around the commander in chief

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Speaker 2: leaving the nation to potentially speak before another country is

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Speaker 2: legislative body in the middle of a government shutdown here, This.

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Speaker 10: Is certainly something that Democrats are going to use to

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Speaker 10: to really you know, beat down on Trump. You know,

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Speaker 10: the Senate just made a decision, you know, a couple

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Speaker 10: hours ago that they were going to stay in next

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Speaker 10: week scheduled recess. Yes, now that is for sure confirmed,

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Speaker 10: but you know, I think that part of their calculus here.

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Speaker 7: Is looking at what's going on with the Trump schedule.

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Speaker 10: And if you have the House out, the Senate out,

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Speaker 10: you know, and the President out of the country. You know,

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Speaker 10: again all you know, members of government that Republicans control,

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Speaker 10: that's a really bad look when you have people, you know,

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Speaker 10: especially you know, on October fifteenth, when all the military pay,

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Speaker 10: you know, all those military members are supposed to go

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Speaker 10: with that with pay in addition to about two million

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Speaker 10: other federal workers.

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Speaker 5: But going back to the messaging war, both sides still

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Speaker 5: seem to be thinking that they're winning.

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Speaker 7: It is that true, yes.

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Speaker 10: And the polling shows, you know that the Republicans are

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Speaker 10: still losing a little bit. But you know, you look

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Speaker 10: at poll by poll and this changes a lot.

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Speaker 7: You know what.

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Speaker 10: The real breakthrough that Democrats are really banking on this

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Speaker 10: week was Marjorie Taylor Green coming out and saying, hey, look, hey, Republicans,

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Speaker 10: we need to focus on this ACA issue. You know,

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Speaker 10: this is going to really hurt my kids, hurt people

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Speaker 10: in my district. You know. So far, she's you know,

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Speaker 10: one of a small choir of voices. But Democrats are

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Speaker 10: banking as these notices go out people see the premium increases,

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Speaker 10: that they'll be able to win this messaging war. You know,

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Speaker 10: that's that's still a little bit of a risky gambit,

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Speaker 10: but they're feeling good, as are. You know, you see

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Speaker 10: more cracks forming on the Republican side. You have you know,

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Speaker 10: Trump undercutting the congressional leader's messages. There's a little bit

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Speaker 10: more discord at least right this right now, this week,

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Speaker 10: if you're.

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Speaker 2: Just joining us on Bloomberg Radio, it's Balance of Power

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Speaker 2: live from Washington. We're going to kick things over shortly

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Speaker 2: to Hollywood where David Ellison, Paramount Skydance is going to

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Speaker 2: be sitting down with our own Lucas Shaw.

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Speaker 3: That's only moments away here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: The fact that the Senate's going to be in next week,

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Speaker 2: should that give us hope that there's maybe some progress

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Speaker 2: being had or that's just optics, because nobody wants to

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Speaker 2: leave town right now.

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Speaker 10: Right now, it's just optics. They don't want to leave.

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Speaker 10: They will go home for the weekend. There's no schedule

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Speaker 10: talks or some schedule plans. But if the mood does shift,

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Speaker 10: if we see flight delays get really bad over the

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Speaker 10: weekend and we see other adverse effects.

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Speaker 7: Start piling up.

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Speaker 10: At least everyone's in the same room versus having to

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Speaker 10: have another two days you know, to get all the

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Speaker 10: lawmakers back in town. So that is a you know,

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Speaker 10: one one hopeful sign that you know, this could potentially

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Speaker 10: you know, wrap up next week, but I'm not placing

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Speaker 10: any bets on that.

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Speaker 5: Well, as you look at ways, Laura, that maybe each

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Speaker 5: side could maybe give just a little bit in this negotiation.

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Speaker 5: Where do you think the Republicans first would maybe give

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Speaker 5: up something.

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Speaker 7: Is it the pledge to held to vote on the healthcare.

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Speaker 5: You know, subsidies in the premiums, or is it something

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Speaker 5: else that they might be willing to kind of throw

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Speaker 5: the Democrats and bone to kind of end this thing.

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Speaker 10: Right now, the conversation to end this has to have

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Speaker 10: some piece of the ACA subsidies as part of it.

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Speaker 10: You know, that's been Democrats' main ask they've basically peeled away.

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Speaker 10: They came in with a long list of healthcare ask,

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Speaker 10: you know, rolling back some of the Medicaid cuts in

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Speaker 10: Trump's tax law. You know, that's not even talked about anymore.

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Speaker 10: You know, everything is laser focused on the ACA subsidies

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Speaker 10: and whether that is you know that that funding is

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Speaker 10: included in the CR. That would be a major win

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Speaker 10: for the Democrats, or a promise of a future vote,

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Speaker 10: which is always a risky thing that happens to Washington.

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Speaker 10: You know, a lot of votes have gotten past because

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Speaker 10: folks were promised something would come later that never did.

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Speaker 10: So you're going to see Democrats being reticent to agree

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Speaker 10: to that. But it depends, you know, kind of how

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Speaker 10: strong the pledge is and how much they trust the

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Speaker 10: other side.

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Speaker 7: And that's really the big issue right now.

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Speaker 10: If you just have leaders, you know, and you know

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Speaker 10: between Schumer's and jeffrees and that just don't trust each other,

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Speaker 10: don't trust the Republican counterparts and Thune in Johnson.

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Speaker 3: This is a new low for trust, it does feel like.

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Speaker 2: And so when you start asking how we get out

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Speaker 2: of this, that's when even lawmakers themselves start projecting a

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Speaker 2: potential protracted shutdown, maybe another record. And I wonder, what this,

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Speaker 2: what do we do with this November twenty first date?

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Speaker 2: If we keep taking away the weeks here, don't they

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Speaker 2: need to rewrite the CR at some point they'll pass

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Speaker 2: this and it'll be a week long.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, And that's the thing that they're really you know,

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Speaker 10: watching carefully of you know, do you you know, if

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Speaker 10: you pass it now, even you've you know, already wasted.

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Speaker 3: To we're already working on the next shutdown.

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Speaker 10: Why they're not focused on the appropriations bills, which you know,

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Speaker 10: for the folks who are you know, the real budget

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Speaker 10: nerds know that they have to get those, you know,

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Speaker 10: those underlying long term spending bills done.

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Speaker 7: The work has essentially halted on that.

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Speaker 10: You know, you have some moderates who are kind of

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Speaker 10: talking about, you know, what could they do there, But

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Speaker 10: that's really just a sideshow here.

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Speaker 7: So this is going to be a really tricky issue.

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Speaker 10: I'll note that in the last shutdown, the thing the

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Speaker 10: day that the cr was signed was also the day

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Speaker 10: that there was ground stoppages at Philadelphia Airport, at Newark,

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Speaker 10: at LaGuardia. That was the thing that finally made folks say, okay,

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Speaker 10: let's pass this, let's let's get a deal.

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Speaker 7: You know, we now suddenly have shut.

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Speaker 2: Down the entire head generally that's coming based on what

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Speaker 2: we're hearing, right, Yeah, thanks for listening to the Balance

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Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't

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Speaker 2: already at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 2: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

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Speaker 2: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com