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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing into spect I'm saying

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Speaker 3: it to cash. We'll see the most gamblers when they

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Speaker 3: go to gamble, they go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: It's just the ultimate kabata and we are underway. What

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Speaker 3: is up everybody? And welcome to the Action Network Podcast

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Speaker 3: presented by Fan Duel. This is your week eleven NFL

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Speaker 3: betting preview. I am your host, Chris Raybon, and we're

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Speaker 3: gonna be breaking down our favorite totals, teasers, underdogs, and

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Speaker 3: of course crack open our weekly Sunday six pack of

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Speaker 3: against the spread bets with the help of my co host,

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Speaker 3: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Naytion Stucky Stuck. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: So brother, just riding away? It was good week. I

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Speaker 2: think I went born two. Also had the rams position

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Speaker 2: that I didn't buy all the way out If I

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Speaker 2: should have, I bought it before the Stafford news that

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Speaker 2: I should have known that I'm not going to win

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Speaker 2: a game with backup quarterback, especially cold, because I should

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Speaker 2: have bought all the way out. But it's another profitable week, terrible,

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Speaker 2: terrible call on the Browns. I was really shocked at

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Speaker 2: how poorly they played coming off the buy, but turned

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Speaker 2: another week of profit in and we're onder the next yes, sir.

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Speaker 3: And you know it's interesting about the Browns at this point.

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Speaker 3: Miami's just taking it too teams. So you know, I

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Speaker 3: wouldn't expect the Browns to always, you know, come out

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Speaker 3: that poorly. I think they actually may have a chance

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Speaker 3: to bounce back this week. Interesting kind of game. We'll

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Speaker 3: talk about maybe some snow there but week eleven, and

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Speaker 3: before we move on, here a quick programming note about

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Speaker 3: our podcast schedule for next week, which is Thanksgiving Week,

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Speaker 3: from our audio guy, Matt Mitchell.

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Speaker 2: All Right, thanks a lot, Chris. All right.

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Speaker 1: For next week, we won't have any new episodes out

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Speaker 1: next Thursday or Friday for the holiday, But as we've

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Speaker 1: done the last five football seasons, our experts and our

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Speaker 1: whole production team will work around the clock to deliver

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Speaker 1: the episodes you guys love by Wednesday morning, November twenty third,

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Speaker 1: so that you guys can spit in the face of

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Speaker 1: those Puritan pilgrims and gamble your way through every minute

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Speaker 1: of Thanksgiving, just like everybody here will for this podcast,

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Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast. On Monday, we'll have our normal

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Speaker 1: NFL recap episode. On Tuesday, we'll have our NFL Player

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Speaker 1: Projections with Raybond and Kerner. Plus we'll have our NFL

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Speaker 1: Best Bets episode with Brendan Glasheen and his crew. That'll

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Speaker 1: be out Tuesday evening, and then on Wednesday morning, we'll

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Speaker 1: have this show, Raybond and Stuckey's NFL Week twelve betting preview,

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Speaker 1: so you'll get that a day early. Same thing goes

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Speaker 1: for our other podcasts shows like Big Bets on Campus

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Speaker 1: and Buckets. No new eppisodes Thursday and Friday next week,

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Speaker 1: but we'll pack everything we possibly can into Monday, Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: and Wednesday morning to get you guys ready for a

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Speaker 1: wonderful holiday week. Thanks everyone for listening and good luck.

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Speaker 3: All right, thanks Matt. Time to talk some Thursday night football,

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Speaker 3: So let's get it started with the Tennessee Titans at

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Speaker 3: the Green Bay Packers. It's not the best game, but

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Speaker 3: it's the only game tonight. Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 3: Titans are three point underdogs in Lambeau. The total is

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Speaker 3: forty one and stuck. I am pretty sure that you're

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Speaker 3: gonna betting against the Titans here.

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Speaker 2: You bet Yes. Rebay came through for me last week.

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Speaker 2: I'm not nine to h on Packers games this year.

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Speaker 2: I love them. This is a Titans team that we

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Speaker 2: could go on and on about. You know how fortunate

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Speaker 2: they've been. I mean by the way they have on

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Speaker 2: the season. You know what are they're They're six and three.

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Speaker 2: They have wins over Washington with Wentz in a game

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Speaker 2: they should have lost. Win it's got stopped the goal line.

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Speaker 2: Indianapolis twice got out played in both Houston deserved win,

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Speaker 2: Denver a little bit of fluky win, and the Raiders.

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Speaker 2: Those are their wins this year. Those teams are combined

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Speaker 2: fifteen thirty and two. It's also a short week less

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Speaker 2: prep for their script, which has been great all season,

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Speaker 2: and it's you know, they're going on the road, Packs

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Speaker 2: are staying home. The Packers are the better team. No

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Speaker 2: usually favors the team in that circumstance, and Titans thirtieth

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Speaker 2: and epa per play end success rate after the first quarter.

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Speaker 2: Their defense has a ton of injuries. The is their

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Speaker 2: sense of urgency for the Packers here pretty much, you know,

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Speaker 2: every game is like a must win for them. Titans

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Speaker 2: are like sitting comfy in first place in that division

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Speaker 2: by like four games if you include the tie breaker.

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Speaker 2: So I think how that matters is like a guy

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Speaker 2: like Jeffrey Simmons, Baby, he sits out instead of plays

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Speaker 2: on a short week. They're already missing a ton of defenders.

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Speaker 2: So I like what I saw from the Packers last week.

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Speaker 2: Made some schematic changes on the defensive side of the ball,

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Speaker 2: a lot of effort just there in a must win

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Speaker 2: they're still getting. There's still they've still been extremely unlucky.

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Speaker 2: More forth down misses that's coming. But Christian Watson finally

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Speaker 2: hitting some explosive plays maybe opens up that offense. And yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Titans last week, like they're not just gonna keep looking.

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Speaker 2: I gotta give you, gotta give a ton of credit

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Speaker 2: the Vrabel who always overperforms Ryan Stonehouse, by the way,

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Speaker 2: the punter basically won him that game last week. He

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Speaker 2: was amazing. He's gonna be an All Pro rookie potentially.

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Speaker 2: And kids got just a bomb leg. But they're not

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Speaker 2: gonna keep having these things happen to them Like Wentz

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Speaker 2: at the one Washington doesn't get in they get a

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Speaker 2: long touchdown last week because two Broncos defenders run into

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Speaker 2: each other, uh, leaving someone wide open on a flee flicker.

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Speaker 2: Just everything is going their way. That's not going to

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Speaker 2: last forever. And this is arguably the unluckiest team in

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Speaker 2: the NFL versus the luckiest. Just look at fourth downs alone.

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Speaker 2: Fourth downs. The Titans are averaging one point four epa

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Speaker 2: per play on fourth downs. They're about sixty five percent.

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Speaker 2: The Packers are negative one and a half. They've lost

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Speaker 2: like thirty five points expected points on fourth downs. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, that shouldn't happen for a team that's

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Speaker 2: like third in the NFL and rushing success rate with

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Speaker 2: a Hall of Fame quarterback. Just tons of fluky things

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Speaker 2: on fourth downs which swing games for teams. For both

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Speaker 2: of these teams that don't usually aren't going to build

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Speaker 2: a lot of margin. Same thing goes with Tennessee and

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Speaker 2: they're in the red zone, they're not going to keep

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Speaker 2: scoring it an eighty percent clip with the worst offensive

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Speaker 2: line one of the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL. So, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I played the pack early, would play up to a

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Speaker 2: juice three. I wouldn't land anything, which is what it's

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Speaker 2: at now. I wouldn't land more than that, just because

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Speaker 2: this is probably gonna be a low scoring game. Field

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Speaker 2: goal is just so important. Packers aren't a type of

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Speaker 2: team that's gonna win with margin. But I think the

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Speaker 2: spot sets up for Green Bay here to get some

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Speaker 2: bounces and build on what they did last week against

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Speaker 2: a banged up Tennessee defense.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I've definitely had my doubts about the Packers.

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Speaker 3: I think this is a game where they're going to

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Speaker 3: have to kind of show, you know, if they're if

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Speaker 3: they're okay, like if their offense is okay. I think

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Speaker 3: they have to show it in this spot because last week,

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Speaker 3: great win against the Cowboys, but you know that was

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Speaker 3: that was Kristen Watson kind of taking over that game.

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers I think completed ten passes for like one

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Speaker 3: hundred yards to everyone else they didn't They didn't throw

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Speaker 3: very much, but they did run for I think it

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Speaker 3: was two hundred over two hundred yards Jones did Dylon combined.

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Speaker 3: So this Titans defense is one of the best in

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Speaker 3: the league against the runs, so I don't think they're

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Speaker 3: gonna be able to get away with that same kind

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Speaker 3: of script in this one, So we're gonna have to see,

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Speaker 3: you know, with Watson that passing offense kind of step

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Speaker 3: it up and be consistent. I think, for you know,

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Speaker 3: closer to four quarters than they have been in the past.

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Speaker 2: So ill But they played like I mean Tennessee. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: they're their run defense numbers are good. Also, like Simmons

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Speaker 2: might not play. They have a ton of guys on IR.

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Speaker 2: Now on defense, I think Dupree is out, you know,

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Speaker 2: Landrew's already out, Cunningham's on IR. I think Simmons is

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Speaker 2: gonna like sit. And they faced a cake schedule of

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Speaker 2: rush offenses. I mean, look, they played Kansas City, who

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Speaker 2: can't run it, Denver who can't run it, Houston, Indianapolis

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Speaker 2: whose offensive line is a mess, Washington, Vegas, Buffalo who

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Speaker 2: can't run it. Like those are the last seven games overall, too,

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Speaker 2: the Titans have played one of the easiest schedules. The

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Speaker 2: NFL Packers have played one of the tougher ones, which

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Speaker 2: I think plays into this as well. So I don't

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Speaker 2: I think that those Titans run defense numbers are a

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Speaker 2: little inflated. They're They're definitely getting pressure their defensive line.

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Speaker 2: That's been a key to their defense, but offensively, I

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Speaker 2: just can't see them moving the ball consistently here. Henry's

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Speaker 2: gonna get his a little bit. But green Bay basically

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Speaker 2: played like last week. They played the Titans on steroids,

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Speaker 2: and I just think that they're overly due for some

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Speaker 2: good breaks and Tennessee is on the opposite Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like green Bay in the spot by the time of

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Speaker 2: your listeners, if it's over three, so I think the

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Speaker 2: Packers are taking a ton of sharp money here. Tennessee

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Speaker 2: is really good in the first quarter. Now they have

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Speaker 2: reduced time here to build their script. But if Tennessee

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Speaker 2: jumps out, you might you know, if it's over three,

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Speaker 2: maybe you want a moneyline parlay with like the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: I think it's safe, but if not, you can wait

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Speaker 2: to see if Tennessee jumps out. And what we've seen

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Speaker 2: all year long is is this Tennessee offense is incapable

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Speaker 2: of scoring after the first quarter. And I mean I

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Speaker 2: think they were the first five weeks of the year

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Speaker 2: without scoring in the fourth quarter. So I think it

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Speaker 2: would be a good opportunity to then to jump in

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Speaker 2: on green Bay under a field goal. If Tennessee, you know,

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Speaker 2: either if they go three to nothing or seven nothing early.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Tennessee looks like they're going to kick the tires

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Speaker 3: on Josh Lambo, who is finally getting another shot after

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Speaker 3: that herban Meyer debacle last year. So that'll be interesting.

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Speaker 3: It's it's an interesting battle of the trends. You have

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Speaker 3: Rogers at Lambeau as a favorite of six points or

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Speaker 3: less thirty two eleven and one, seventy four percent against

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Speaker 3: the spread, and then you have Vrabel on the other

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Speaker 3: side as a dog of a field goal or more

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Speaker 3: twenty and seven, also seventy four percent against the spread.

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Speaker 3: So triuld be a good one. I lean to the

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Speaker 3: under as well. I think the Titans DJO teams. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the slow list actually thirty one in thirty two in

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Speaker 3: situation neutral pace. I do think the Titans are gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to have more success defensively than the Cowboys

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Speaker 3: did last week against the Packers. All right, let's jump

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Speaker 3: into the Sunday six pack four week number eleven, Thursday

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Speaker 3: Deeper Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack. You

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Speaker 3: are up first, thirty nine to twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: We got Yeah, we basically can call it.

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Speaker 3: Nah. It's never over, just like any just like a

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Speaker 3: Titans bet. Never over.

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Speaker 2: Let's just all the matter is just keep feeding winners

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Speaker 2: of the other weeks. That's all that matters to me.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the week, eleven Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 2: I'm going with the Dallas Cowboys minus one and a

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Speaker 2: half at the Minnesota Vikings. This my job was easy here,

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Speaker 2: I said last week in the podcast, hopefully usked. Do

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Speaker 2: you think the Packers are going out I see, I

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Speaker 2: think the Packers actually going out right. I said, hopefully

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Speaker 2: we get the package went out right and Josh Allen

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Speaker 2: sits and the Vikings win, then we'll get a spot

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Speaker 2: to back to fade the Vikings at home with the Cowboys. Well,

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen played the Vikings somehow still pulled off that win.

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Speaker 2: The second luckiest win per post game win probability since

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Speaker 2: twenty fourteen. The first was the Dolphins over the Ravens

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Speaker 2: Earlier this year, Bill's had a ninety nine point three

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Speaker 2: percent post game win expectancy, which looks at the entirety

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Speaker 2: of the game. It's not at one point in time.

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Speaker 2: They know. People on Twitter brought up like the Browns

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Speaker 2: against the Jets, Like, yeah, they had a ninety nine

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Speaker 2: point nine percent win probably at one point. But if

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Speaker 2: you look at the totality of the game and what

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Speaker 2: happened and now played out, I think the Vikings were

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Speaker 2: covered like six fumbles in the game. So yeah, the

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Speaker 2: Vikings luck tour continued last week. They've won seventh straight now,

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Speaker 2: all by one possession. I tried to find reasons to

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Speaker 2: think that the Vikings aren't just average, and it's basically

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Speaker 2: you could throw it up to Justin Jefferson, which is

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Speaker 2: a way above average play call. He's amazing, by the way.

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Speaker 2: He's dealing with a tow injury, so we'll see if

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Speaker 2: he's limited at all. But everywhere you look, they're average.

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Speaker 2: I mean, let's look at Dvoa, there's seventeenth. Similar like

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Speaker 2: my power ratings have them around the league average. Sing Dallas,

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Speaker 2: by the way, is fourth, and they've played six games

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Speaker 2: with Cooper Rush. If you remove turnovers epa per play,

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Speaker 2: Minnesota's sixteenth on offense. Their defense is seventeen. By the way,

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Speaker 2: Dallas is defense the biggest jump of any teen this year.

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Speaker 2: If you remove turnovers. Last year, the defense was extremely

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Speaker 2: reliant on turnovers. Remove turnovers. They go from a top

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Speaker 2: five defains the top five defense. They are just good

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Speaker 2: across the board. You look at estimated wins on football outsiders,

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Speaker 2: Dallas seven point seven with Cooper Rush starting six games.

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Speaker 2: That's third in the NFL. Minnesota's four point five, seventeenth.

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Speaker 2: I mean you look at yards for play, they are sixteenth.

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Speaker 2: How about yards to play allowed, They're twenty eighth, negative

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Speaker 2: point five net yards per play Dallas is positive zero

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Speaker 2: point four. This is also a great situational spot. You

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Speaker 2: have much more urgency for Dallas sitting in third place

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Speaker 2: and division coming off the loss. Minnesota coming off that

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Speaker 2: just crazy win in the game of the year game

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Speaker 2: was amazing, by the way, I still can't believe having

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Speaker 2: that catch ups and made that catch doesn't seem possible

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Speaker 2: just from the laws of physics. But great spot here

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Speaker 2: for Dallas to rebound. And then just from a matchup

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Speaker 2: perspective and other factors, Minnesota still has some turnover regression

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Speaker 2: coming there plus eight second in the league. They've recovered

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Speaker 2: seventy five percent of their own fumbles sixty five percent

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Speaker 2: of opponent fumbles. Cousins has been lucky in the turnover

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Speaker 2: department under pressure. Speaking of pressure, Dallas second in the

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Speaker 2: NFL twenty nine point six percent pressure rate. Vikings are

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Speaker 2: thirtieth and pressure rate allowed and one of the better

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Speaker 2: tackles in the NFL. And not all of people talking

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Speaker 2: about Darisel Who's gonna be a stud at left tackle

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Speaker 2: for years to come. He's in concussion protocol. He can't play.

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Speaker 2: That's bad news for Minnesota, who comes in more banged up.

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Speaker 2: I think here's an area Smith's little nicked up. Their

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Speaker 2: secondary is banged up. Dallas too, but it looks like

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Speaker 2: they think Anthony Brown's gonna play at corner, which would

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Speaker 2: help since they had some injuries there as well. But

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Speaker 2: Cousins under pressure this year has been bad five point

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Speaker 2: one yards per ten, twenty eight out of thirty qualified quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: He's just ahead of Zach Wilson seven big time for

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Speaker 2: his nine turnworthy plays. Yet he has eight touchdowns and

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Speaker 2: two interceptions under pressure again, but lucky, you know some

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Speaker 2: of that as you could just throw it up to

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Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson and he's going to compensate for some bad Crows.

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Speaker 2: But when I look at this game, it's just good

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Speaker 2: spot and I think a good matchup. I also think

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Speaker 2: Dallas be able to move the ball here Minnesota's defense

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Speaker 2: is very suspect. They are dead last the NFL and

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Speaker 2: drive success rate. But overall, I think these offenses are

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Speaker 2: fairly similar. That it'll be a big loss if Minnesota

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Speaker 2: loses their left tackle in this particular matchup. But offenses

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Speaker 2: are fairly similar, but the Dallas defense is significantly better

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Speaker 2: and the Dallas special teams are significantly better. Taken to

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Speaker 2: account the situation, the matchup, the injuries, I have Dallas

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Speaker 2: here as a three point favorite. I was just all

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Speaker 2: I wanted was anything under three. One and a half

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Speaker 2: has final with me. I think Dallas wins this game

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Speaker 2: and the Vikings luck maybe comes to an end. But

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Speaker 2: I like this for various other reasons as well.

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Speaker 3: What are just ridiculously lucky turn of events for the Vikings?

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I can't disagree here all right. For my

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Speaker 3: first pick and the second overall of the week eleven

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack presented by Fan Duel, I'm going with

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Speaker 3: the Indianapolis Colts plus six and a half at home

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Speaker 3: against the Philadelphia Eagle. And you know, I like what

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Speaker 3: I saw the Coats a week ago. I think they

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Speaker 3: have a few things working for them in this spot

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Speaker 3: in particular. The first is that Jeff Saturday, what are

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Speaker 3: you doing when you take over? When he took over,

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Speaker 3: he reinstalls Matt Ryan and they go back to, you know,

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Speaker 3: running the football effectively with Jonathan Taylor. Well, now you're

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Speaker 3: gonna face this Eagles defense that is twenty eighth in

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Speaker 3: DVOA against the run. They're a bottom five run defense.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we saw what Damian Pierce did to them

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Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago, we saw with the Commanders

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Speaker 3: Tandem did to them on Monday Night. And this defense

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Speaker 3: is on the field for eighty three snaps in that

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Speaker 3: game against Washington, and now they have to go in

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Speaker 3: a short week to another team that wants to play ball, control,

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Speaker 3: run the football. You know, Fletcher Cox, I think he

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Speaker 3: played seventy snaps. He's even saying like wow, like this

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Speaker 3: is this is this is a lot for me. So

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Speaker 3: I think it's a bad spot for Philly from that perspective,

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Speaker 3: But I also think, you know, this coach team, obviously

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Speaker 3: everyone was kind of down and out on them. They

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Speaker 3: were going through a rough spot and everyone thought they

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Speaker 3: were tanking. But it's obvious that they are not tanking.

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Speaker 3: And when you get a new coach, what you get

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Speaker 3: a lot of times is some schematic changes that kind

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Speaker 3: of go under the radar, you know, Saturday, being an

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Speaker 3: offensive line coach, that was one of the major issues

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Speaker 3: with this Indianapolis offense was their line. And you know

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Speaker 3: it's obviously just one week, but they were a lot

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Speaker 3: better then I've seen them all season in that game

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Speaker 3: against the Raiders, And you know, the numbers back it up.

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Speaker 3: If you look at PFF's grading. Ryan Kelly best grade

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Speaker 3: since Week one, Nelson highest grade of the year, the

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Speaker 3: left tackle Raymond highest pass blocking grade of the year,

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Speaker 3: and the first time he didn't allow pressure since League one.

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Speaker 3: Probably the right guard eighty three point two run blocking

335
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Speaker 3: grade his best of the year. So overall, four pressures,

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Speaker 3: zero sacks allowed for that offensive line. And most importantly,

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Speaker 3: when you're facing this Seagle defense, who you want to

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Speaker 3: be able to run on? Jonathan Taylor eighty three yards

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Speaker 3: before contact in that game three point eight yards on

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Speaker 3: average per carry before first contact. So that tells me

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Speaker 3: that this offensive line can get it done here in

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Speaker 3: another good matchup and then equipping it over, we know

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Speaker 3: what Indianapolis is going to do on defense. They still

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Speaker 3: have that Gus Bradley system and they're still playing a

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Speaker 3: lot of his own coverage. Well, Philadelphia going up against

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Speaker 3: this matchup aj Brown, he destroys man coverage, but one

347
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Speaker 3: point five yards per rout against zone is kind of average.

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Speaker 3: And you lost one of your best players against zone

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Speaker 3: coverage in Dallas Goddard, the tight end who's going to

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Speaker 3: be out. He was averaging two point one yards per

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Speaker 3: route against zone. So I think Philadelphia is just right

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Speaker 3: exactly as teams that play almost non stop zone tended.

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Speaker 3: So I just think it's a tough spot for Philadelphia

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Speaker 3: on the short week, given what transpired in that Monday

355
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Speaker 3: night game. And then you know, given the matchup at hand,

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Speaker 3: and you know, you kind of have to throw out

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Speaker 3: a lot of what we saw with the Coats. And

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Speaker 3: but remember coming into the year, we just thought, okay,

359
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Speaker 3: this is like a middling team that could compete with

360
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Speaker 3: the what would probably be a middling Titans team for

361
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Speaker 3: that division. And you know, now you're getting seven points

362
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Speaker 3: at home because you know the Eagles are you know,

363
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Speaker 3: just came off their first loss of the season. Everyone's like,

364
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Speaker 3: of course they're gonna bounce back. But again, I just

365
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Speaker 3: think it's a tough spot, and you cannot really go

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Speaker 3: wrong with underdogs, especially it's not a super high total game.

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Speaker 3: I think the totals forty four as we record this

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Speaker 3: this season, underdogs by more than a field goal with

369
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Speaker 3: a total of forty seven or less forty six and

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Speaker 3: nineteen against the spread seventy one percent. So like the

371
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Speaker 3: the number, like the matchup, like the spot. I like

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Speaker 3: pretty much everything about this one. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a lot closer than people think it. I think

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Speaker 3: Saturday is gonna, you know, continue to kind of make

375
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Speaker 3: make people eat their words. Who who tried to slander

376
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Speaker 3: Room after he took the job.

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Speaker 2: So I was decided between what to go first, the Colts,

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Speaker 2: with the Cowboys, and with the Cowboys, And then I

379
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Speaker 2: was just like, I hope that you don't take the

380
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Speaker 2: Colts because that was gon my clear second.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you know me though, even if I am

382
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Speaker 3: going to take a favorite, it will probably be my

383
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Speaker 3: last pick. Like I'm I don't think I've ever taken

384
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Speaker 3: a favorite. First, Yeah, you don't.

385
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Speaker 2: You don't like the Colts.

386
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Speaker 3: That's why I thought, got I adjust to new information,

387
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 3: I adjusted new I know.

388
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Speaker 2: I just thought I would have an extra pick before

389
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Speaker 2: the Cults, which I was incredible. I love this. It

390
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,159
Speaker 2: was one of the first bets the week okay that

391
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 2: I made once. Uh this line reopened after the Monday

392
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Speaker 2: night game and yeah, I mean you said it. The

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Speaker 2: first of all, the Eagles have been getting extremely lucky

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Speaker 2: this year. They're plus sixteen turnover margin. Going into that

395
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Speaker 2: game last week, were like, oh they got un lucky.

396
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 2: Well yeah, they're dude to not get every bounce in

397
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: every game and they're plus sixteen. The Vikings are the

398
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Speaker 2: second that the second best turn of plus eight. They

399
00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: were eight better than the next vaccine. They they've played

400
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 2: no one, as everyone knows, the only their best team

401
00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 2: they played is the Vikings, one of the luckiest teams

402
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: in the NFL. So yeah, they the Eagles are still

403
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,239
Speaker 2: a good team. I think this loss will serve them

404
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 2: well in the long run, but not in the short run.

405
00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 2: All those players on defensive defense is going to be gas.

406
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,919
Speaker 2: They're also missing Mattos really important slot corner and.

407
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Speaker 3: Campbell's coming on strong, like you know, kind of out

408
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 3: of nowhere. But his last three games that we seven

409
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Speaker 3: catches in a touchdown last three games are Matt Ryan

410
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Speaker 3: that is so that's kind of an under eight ar thing.

411
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Speaker 3: Campbell's actually been Matt Ryan's going to guy yep.

412
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Speaker 2: Yeah. And the Eagles run defense without Jordan Davis is

413
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Speaker 2: just significantly worse with him on the field. They're only

414
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Speaker 2: allowing three point eight seven yards per carry without five

415
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,040
Speaker 2: point one the massive drop. Yeah, well, the rest of

416
00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 2: their defenses on the field forever. I think the Colts

417
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 2: have new belief now, like they're in that division. Some

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Speaker 2: injuries for the Eagles, even aj Brown tankle we don't

419
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Speaker 2: know how healthy he is. So yeah, I love the

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Speaker 2: Colts here. Wouldn't be shocked if they went out right.

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Speaker 3: Now that Saturday is kind of given them like some rejuvenation.

422
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 3: This is their first home game with him, and I

423
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 3: think it's going to be, you know, pretty crazy for

424
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Speaker 3: you know, the people are gonna be hype out there.

425
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Speaker 3: So I could see a few more bounces going the

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Speaker 3: Colts away instead of the Eagles this week.

427
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Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, And I mean the Colts look, it kind

428
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:47,200
Speaker 2: of felt like everything under Reich, and you know, they're

429
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:50,400
Speaker 2: firing their offensive coordinators and I mean, look, they lost

430
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: by one of the Commanders, crazy catch by McLaurin, and

431
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 2: they did a drop easily could have won that game.

432
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 2: They all played the Titans twice and they just got tightened.

433
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 2: They could have a more wins here and they would

434
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 2: be right around where we thought like an average team.

435
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: And I don't think an average team at home rejuvenated

436
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 2: with a good matchup in a good spot, catching a

437
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:12,480
Speaker 2: team that's exhausted with some injuries off a short week

438
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: should be catching six or more points, especially in today's

439
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: scoring environment, with a total is low.

440
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 3: All right.

441
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,800
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall of the week,

442
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 2: eleven Sunday, six Pat, I'm going with the Los Angeles

443
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 2: Chargers plus five and a half at fandle. And you know,

444
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,400
Speaker 2: if it's at five and a half when you're listening

445
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 2: to this again, weight five's a dead. Number six is

446
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 2: fairly key. Maybe you get some public money on the

447
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 2: Chiefs ahead of this matchup, since in primetime you got

448
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 2: a lot of chasers. But this line is coming down

449
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 2: because number one, I think it was too high, and

450
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 2: number two, there's potential positive injury news for the Chargers,

451
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: who could get back one of Mike Williams or Keenan Allen,

452
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 2: maybe both. I think they'll be kind of a pipe dream,

453
00:24:58,520 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 2: but we'll see.

454
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 3: That's the play. I mean, who knows if it's gonna

455
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 3: come to fruition, but both of them are.

456
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 2: Practicing.

457
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, yep, so I mean that's a that's a seven

458
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 3: or right direction.

459
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll say. But Keenan Allen's really key. And with

460
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 2: all the slants and short passes that Lombardi calls, it's

461
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 2: just he's that that security blanket, that third down and

462
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: that rock that would just be a huge bump to

463
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert. But this line is crazy, even like even

464
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: if one or both are out. I mean, the Chargers

465
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 2: are plus three and a half at Kansas City. Earlier

466
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 2: this season, I bet the Chargers. The Chargers covered. The

467
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,880
Speaker 2: Chargers could have won, arguably should have won. They've had injuries.

468
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,359
Speaker 2: Now you have to downgrade them. But now they're you

469
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 2: know they earlier in the week they're plus seven, plus

470
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 2: six and a half plus six. Now they're catching over

471
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 2: a field go more at home. They were just plus

472
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:48,680
Speaker 2: seven on the road at Sant Fran, who I think

473
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 2: is right there with Kansas City for my power ratings,

474
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 2: and that was on the road. San Fran a little below,

475
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 2: but that was on the road and they didn't have

476
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: any receivers for that game. So yeah, this is this

477
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 2: line is way too high. Also, matchup wise, it's a

478
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 2: good matchup for the Chargers. That's why they always these

479
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: gams are always close. You know. Herbert is four and

480
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 2: one against the spread against the Chiefs two and three

481
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 2: straight up. His losses were by three, three and six

482
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 2: in overtime. He is not trailed by more than three

483
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 2: at the end of regulation in any of his five

484
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: meetings with the Chiefs. Also, when you want to fade Mahomes,

485
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:24,480
Speaker 2: you want to do it as a favorite of over

486
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 2: field goal. He's twenty eight to thirty one and one

487
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 2: against the spread, including the postseason in his career as

488
00:26:29,240 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: a favorite of three or lesser and underdogged one, you know,

489
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: really want to get in the habit of fading seventeen

490
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 2: to five and one against the spread. His Chiefs team

491
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,960
Speaker 2: just at times struggles to get margin because they don't

492
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 2: have a great defense. If the Chiefs want to come

493
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 2: out here and run it, then you're fine with it. Okay, Mames,

494
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,760
Speaker 2: you want to just hand it off all game, They'll

495
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 2: live with that.

496
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 3: How they covered against the Niners, Yep, the Chiefs.

497
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 2: Look, David might have some potential injuries at receiver, their

498
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 2: offensive line isn't playing as well as I had projected,

499
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 2: and their numbers are outrageously good, especially on offense. But

500
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 2: I think the results are a bit skewed. They played

501
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,760
Speaker 2: the Cardinals in Week one, right, who had a practice

502
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 2: squad defense, and they put up fifty. They played a

503
00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers defense that was missing about six or

504
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: seven starters. You know, they got to play a Titan,

505
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:18,159
Speaker 2: the Titans with a backup quarterback, so they have a

506
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: couple of results on their schedule. I think they're skewing

507
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 2: some of their results. But basically this is just too

508
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: many points for the Chargers. Yeah, I mean Los Angeles here.

509
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 3: On that Yeah, I was thinking about that one as well.

510
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,840
Speaker 3: We've talked about this Charger team just knows how to

511
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: stay in games. It's been just a miserable season for

512
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 3: Herbert in terms of, you know, what he's had at

513
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 3: his disposal. If he gets if he just gets one

514
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 3: of those guys back, Like you said, I think it

515
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 3: could be night and day. Yeah, you could have a

516
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 3: situation where the Chiefs are without Juju, Smith, Schuster, Nicole

517
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 3: Hardman as well, So you could kind of flip it

518
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:56,840
Speaker 3: to where all of a sudden, the Chiefs could be

519
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 3: the most injured team at the scope position. So yeah,

520
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,959
Speaker 3: home dog, another one of those dogs by more than

521
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 3: a field goal, which I've just been absolutely crushing this season.

522
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:12,080
Speaker 3: You know, games are just a little bit overscoring, games

523
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,160
Speaker 3: are just closer, and the Chargers have always played that way.

524
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 3: And you know if you do get into trouble Brandon Stale,

525
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 3: you will bail you out. He's going to be aggressive.

526
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: You know what was surprising to me, the Chargers haven't

527
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 3: gone for two yet this year, Like I could not

528
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 3: believe that when I saw that. But yeah, yeah, I agree,

529
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 3: all right. For my second pick in the fourth overall

530
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,880
Speaker 3: of the week eleven Sunday six pack presented by FANDU,

531
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 3: I am going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus four and

532
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 3: a half at home against the Cincinnati Bengals. And this

533
00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 3: is basically a bet on TJ. Watt, a bet on

534
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 3: the Bengals still missing Jamar Chase, which you know that

535
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 3: he's on crutches earlier in the week, don't think he's

536
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 3: going to be back, and a bet on Tom Win

537
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 3: in the spot what but I think Chase, you know,

538
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 3: I know it didn't you know, it hurt them against

539
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 3: the Browns and then didn't really matter against the Panthers.

540
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 3: But even with the boy, I still think it's a

541
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 3: big loss because you look at you know, Chase against Pittsburgh,

542
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,200
Speaker 3: that connection with him and Burrow seventeen to twenty four,

543
00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 3: two hundred and thirty three yards, three touchdowns, fifteen first downs,

544
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 3: nine point seven yards in attempt, twelve zero point five

545
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 3: percent touchdown rate. Everyone else just fifty to seventy for

546
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 3: four to sixty seven and three scores, so just six

547
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 3: point seven yards in attempt and the touchdown rate is

548
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 3: cut into a third. So I think that's gonna be tough.

549
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 3: And you know, at this Steeler defense, when they have

550
00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 3: TJ WHTT, they can play in these you know, thirteen

551
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 3: to ten kind of games. I mean, we saw it

552
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 3: last week with the Saints, you know, just a low

553
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 3: scoring battle. It's the second division game. So I think

554
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 3: it it's gonna kind of fit that script again. And

555
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 3: this Steer team just continues to show up. They didn't

556
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: close as an underdog last week against the Saints, but

557
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 3: so tom win. That would have improved tom win to

558
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: sixteen three and three against the spread as a home dog,

559
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 3: but since they closed as a one point favorite, he's

560
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 3: still fifteen three and three against the spread as a

561
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,479
Speaker 3: home dog, forty eight and twenty six with three pushes,

562
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 3: sixty five percent as a dog in all spots in

563
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: his career. Somebody got to be all in for everybody

564
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 3: to be all in. Still no Chatobe Awuzia obviously for

565
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,920
Speaker 3: the Bengals. So you know, Pickens I think could potentially

566
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 3: get going in this matchup. Give me the Steelers. I

567
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 3: just think hard fought game. Anything over a field goal,

568
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: I'll take it at home.

569
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, don't mind the spot, don't mind the divisional dog.

570
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 2: I think this would classify as a raw ros spot.

571
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: I mean, this is the Steelers that they're playing the

572
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 2: right one of their division rivals if they have any prayer,

573
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 2: which they're not.

574
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 3: But you know, hey, never count out Tomlin. Never count

575
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 3: out Mike. Look the greatest of all time. Look at

576
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: your work.

577
00:31:08,080 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 2: They have to win this game against Cincy, and yeah, TJ.

578
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: Wapping back is massive. You hope that Fitzpatrick can go

579
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 2: as well, but what just on the field versus off

580
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 2: It's a yard per play difference. It's massive. And then

581
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 2: the Hapck that he can cause. I mean earlier this

582
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 2: season against the Bengals when we were on them, he

583
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: tackled Burrow and Mixing at this point of the handoff,

584
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: took them both down, and then the next play picked

585
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: Barrow off. Like that's what he could do to a game.

586
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 3: He's like the Justin Jefferson of defensive players, Like just

587
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 3: ridiculous plays that you just like, you don't even know

588
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 3: what to say anymore.

589
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: Wow. And since the offensive line, they'll have games where

590
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: they can just get wrecked. So I can't hate the

591
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 2: hate the spot.

592
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 3: Oh, let me let me add one thing. Uh, let

593
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 3: me add one thing.

594
00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 2: Uh.

595
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 3: And by the way, mention this last week, but we're

596
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: bringing up again the Steelers have played the toughest schedule

597
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 3: in the National Football League this year, and last week

598
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 3: against the Saints was the first time they didn't play

599
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 3: a team in the top thirteen in DVOA. And what happens,

600
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 3: They get a ten point win. So you know it

601
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 3: wasn't pretty. But just remember that this Steeler team, you know,

602
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 3: as bad as they've looked at times, it's been a really,

603
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 3: really tough schedule and this Bengals team is a team

604
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:30,040
Speaker 3: that they've already shown they could be. And Chase caught

605
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 3: ten balls for one twenty nine in that first matchup,

606
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 3: so you know he kind of single handed. We kept

607
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 3: him around when Borrow was struggling. So it's gonna be

608
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,200
Speaker 3: a tough spot down to four in a lot of books.

609
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 3: So get that four and a half if you can,

610
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,959
Speaker 3: but still like it in anything over a field goal.

611
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right. For my third pick in the fifth

612
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 2: overall of the week eleven Sunday six pack, I'm going

613
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 2: with the Houston Texans plus three and a half at

614
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 2: home against the Washington Commanders. Your commis this is I'm

615
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 2: not going to sit here and hype the Texans. Although

616
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 2: they played better the past two weeks covered against Philly,

617
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:17,440
Speaker 2: score was closer than maybe the the game was actually

618
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 2: closer than maybe the final score indicates. And then last

619
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 2: week they thoroughly outplayed the Giants thoroughly. I mean they

620
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 2: averaged over six yards per play. They just got into

621
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 2: the red zone and could not score over and over again.

622
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 2: More Giants luck, but they were they were the better

623
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: team statisically that day. Now they come home, they get

624
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 2: Washington off a short week off of a massive win.

625
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: This is such a flat spot going out of conference

626
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: to Houston, and basically I just think that it's too

627
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 2: many points and if I can get over a field

628
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: goal in today's scoring environment in a great spot, now

629
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,880
Speaker 2: we're asking Tyler Heineke to win with margin, to win

630
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: by more than three. This is the same Washington team

631
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: that went on the road road to Indianapolis when they

632
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: were a corpse and made Sam Ellinger look competent, like

633
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 2: he was throwing all over the field. This like we

634
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 2: got to slow the like Washington is better, improved better

635
00:34:12,760 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 2: with Heinekee than with Wentz. But now we're talking about

636
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 2: laying three and a half on the road. I think

637
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 2: this is the peak of the market value in a

638
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 2: great spot for Houston. So give me the Texans. I

639
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: just think that this line should be like closer to two,

640
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 2: you're gonna give me over the magic three would buy

641
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,839
Speaker 2: this up to minus one, twenty minus one. I think

642
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: it's that important in this game. And yeah, give me

643
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 2: give me the Texans at home. Good spot and good number.

644
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 3: Yeah I make it around two as well. I have

645
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,319
Speaker 3: not pulled the trigger. The one thing that does give

646
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 3: me pause from a matchup perspective is the Commanders do

647
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 3: play the run. Well, and I think that's what makes

648
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 3: this Texan offense go is Damian Pierce. Now he's good

649
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,080
Speaker 3: enough to beat any run defense, which is kind of

650
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 3: the counterpoint to that, but uh would rather not have

651
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 3: them facing, you know, a top five run defense. But yeah,

652
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 3: you're getting more than a field goal. And that's been

653
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,200
Speaker 3: it's been the magic number, especially in these kind of

654
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 3: low scoring games. And you know, Texans should have Brandon

655
00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 3: Cooks back for full compliment of snaps. And then we

656
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 3: went to the locker room in that last one and

657
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: he obviously sat out the one before. I can't hate

658
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 3: on it.

659
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 2: Because of what happened on Monday against the Eagles. You're

660
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 2: getting here, you're getting an extra point over the three.

661
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 2: Like I think this line would have been two and

662
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:35,000
Speaker 2: a half if the if Washington lost by seven to

663
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: ten against the Eagles, now and if the Texans won

664
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: as well. Now, the Texans outplayed the Giants, should have won,

665
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: but didn't. They got unlucky and Washington, let's be honest,

666
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 2: they you know, they averaged four yards per play and

667
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,279
Speaker 2: they had a great game plan. They got a bunch

668
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 2: of bounces and a bunch of calls that the Eagles

669
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 2: had coming, but they were out game by over a

670
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: yard and a half per play. They were just able

671
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 2: to control the clock the entire game. I don't think

672
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: anything really fundamentally change with Washington. That point difference between

673
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 2: two and a half and three and a half massive.

674
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 2: And that's why I think we're getting here because of

675
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 2: what happened on Monday.

676
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 3: Are we going for my third and final pick, the

677
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: sixth overall of the week eleven Sunday six pack presented

678
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:23,720
Speaker 3: by FanDuel. I am going with the Las Vegas Raiders

679
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 3: plus two and a half at the Denver Broncos. And

680
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: this is another one of these spots where kind of

681
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 3: like earlier in the year, just tested Aaron Rodgers in

682
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 3: that Packer offense, Let's test this Broncos offense. Let's see,

683
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 3: let's see if they can score enough points because they

684
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 3: haven't been able to. And when you look at this

685
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: Raider team, they are pretty much the only offense that

686
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 3: had any semblance of success for an entire game against

687
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 3: this Bronco d They put up a season high thirty

688
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,439
Speaker 3: two points on Denver in the first beating a season

689
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 3: high three hundred and eighty five yards Denver, barely giving

690
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:07,680
Speaker 3: up three hundred in any other game, three eighty five

691
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 3: for the Raiders in that one, six scoring drives, just

692
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 3: four punts along with the end of game drive, and

693
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 3: Vegas was able to run it, which I think they

694
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 3: need to get back to. Thirty eight times for two

695
00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,680
Speaker 3: hundred and twelve yards. Is Bronco d is still a

696
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 3: twentieth in DVA against the run. And you look at

697
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 3: that matchup in the success that the Raiders had, and

698
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:36,800
Speaker 3: then you look at who from that game is not

699
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,280
Speaker 3: going to be on the field for Denver this time around.

700
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:45,360
Speaker 3: First of all, Randy Gregory forty six snaps, five pressures

701
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 3: in that game, the second highest graded player on d

702
00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,480
Speaker 3: He's he's still on IR. Bradley Schubb fifty three snaps,

703
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: a couple of pressures, a path breakup, the third best

704
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: graded player on d Traded slot corner Kwan Williams played

705
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 3: forty nine snap that's got a sack off the edge.

706
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 3: The fourth best rated player in that game. He is

707
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,640
Speaker 3: out and considered a week to week. Ronald Darby played

708
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 3: seventy five snaps in that game, only allowed one catch

709
00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 3: on forty snaps in coverage. He's on IR. The safety

710
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 3: kten Sterearns played seventy five snaps. Now Simmons should be back,

711
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: so that's a wash. But you have pretty much half

712
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 3: of the defense, you know that was on the field

713
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 3: in a game that the Raiders still had success. That's

714
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 3: not going to be there this time around. And then

715
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 3: on the other side of the ball, Vegas is not

716
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 3: gonna have to do a ton because you know Denver

717
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 3: Corland Sutton is the player you have to worry about

718
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,399
Speaker 3: on that Bronco offense. And why is that the case?

719
00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 3: Because KU's out on this Denver offense. kJ Hamler fifty

720
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 3: five yard catch in that first game, he's out. Jerry

721
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 3: Judy anchor injury, Iffy five targets, four catches, fifty three

722
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,320
Speaker 3: at a touch in the first meeting. And then you

723
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,840
Speaker 3: look at the line. Your center, Cushion Berry on ir

724
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,880
Speaker 3: he played fifty three snaps and was their top grated

725
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 3: pass blocker in the first matchup. Your left tackle Garrett Bowles,

726
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:09,319
Speaker 3: he was the second best pass blocker in that game.

727
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 3: He's on Ir broke his way Glasgow who was playing

728
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 3: right guard. Then now he's the center replaced in Christian Berry.

729
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 3: He got hurt and he's day to day with a

730
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 3: shoulder issue, he's no guarantee to be one hundred percent

731
00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 3: cam fleming your right tackles out till day to day

732
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 3: with the quad. Your fullback Andrew Beck still hasn't practiced.

733
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 3: You know, that's the guy that gives you some good

734
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:33,760
Speaker 3: blocking snaps. So and either way, regardless of who plays

735
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 3: or who doesn't, this offense, as you can see if

736
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 3: you've watched any part of any Broncos game, cannot afford

737
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 3: the lack of continuity. Like they need the practice reps.

738
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 3: They need guys to be in sync together on that

739
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,360
Speaker 3: line because it's just not working. And you know they

740
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 3: wanted to try to go more hurry up and with

741
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 3: all the injuries, that's gonna really be hard because you

742
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 3: need cohesion. If now it's just gonna be a bunch

743
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: of penalties and in quick three and out. So Kendahn, yeah, obviously. Yeah,

744
00:40:05,520 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 3: that was another one of those games where I caught

745
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 3: the h didn't beat the clothes because you know, it

746
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 3: went all the way down to thirty six and a half.

747
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: I got a thirty nine, uh, thirty six and a

748
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: half on the pod. Still liked it, but went all

749
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 3: the way back up to I think thirty nine and

750
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 3: a half. It got to because pretty much half of

751
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: each defense was ruled out and you know, still Broncos

752
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 3: couldn't score. So, uh, you know, this Raider team, I

753
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 3: think you could take advantage of the Coats what we

754
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 3: saw from the Colts in multiple ways. Number one, you know,

755
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 3: we actually saw something good and I think you can

756
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 3: have confidence in them to cover the number against the Eagles.

757
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 3: But I also think that now everyone's looking at the

758
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: Raiders like, oh, it's doomsday. It's over for them. They're

759
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 3: incapable of doing anything. They just lost to a joke

760
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: in the Jeff Saturday Coats. This Bronco team a lot

761
00:40:57,400 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: more ravaged by injury than you would think, you know,

762
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 3: given the number. And I've even seen it, you know,

763
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: hit three, juice up three at some spots. Everyone's on

764
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 3: the Broncos here just thinking this Raider team, you know,

765
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,959
Speaker 3: is a joke after losing a Saturday But this team

766
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,959
Speaker 3: is just ravage. I think I could get ugly for Denver.

767
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 3: So even though I'm not getting the three, I'm still

768
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 3: taking the Las Vegas Raiders. Yeah, I.

769
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,879
Speaker 2: Don't mind it. Every Broncos game is the same. It's

770
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 2: like a game and the teams and they have the

771
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: ball late trying to score to take the lead. They're

772
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 2: just that's all. All my notes are about them decimated

773
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 2: by injuries. Cars owned the Bronco. I think the Raiders

774
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: are nine to one against the spread the last ten

775
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 2: against the Broncos. The Raiders have now lost three games

776
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 2: of the lead of at least seventeen points. They That

777
00:41:49,560 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 2: is high for the record in a season already for

778
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,320
Speaker 2: most losses at the leading by seventeen or more points

779
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 2: within a single season. Imagine if they won all those

780
00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 2: games Broncos. By by the way, they're they're last in

781
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: scoring on offense and first and first.

782
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

783
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 2: The last time any team finished last and first nineteen

784
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:15,239
Speaker 2: forty six Steelers. So we'll see if nuts that's just

785
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 2: nuts later. Yeah.

786
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 3: And I should also mention we shouldn't short change the

787
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 3: homefield advantage for Denver, that that is something that's working

788
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 3: in their favor. But given the situational spot, I actually

789
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 3: think it's a good thing for the Raiders to get

790
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: away from that home crowd that's going to just be

791
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 3: completely ready to turn on them after that lost to

792
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 3: Saturday exactly exactly. So it kind of works in reverse.

793
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 3: So that is going to do it for the Week

794
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 3: of eleven, six pack, Let's see who do we got

795
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:53,840
Speaker 3: at quarterback? Got some some Dak Prescott, some Justin Herbert.

796
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:57,759
Speaker 3: You sued some good guys with Dak Herbert and uh

797
00:42:58,200 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 3: Davis Mills. I got mad Ye, Denny Pickett, and Derek Carr,

798
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 3: so got Tomlin and got a guy a high school coach.

799
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 3: So we got the full run, the full gamut here.

800
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 2: Someone's got to win this game. So that means it's

801
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 2: gonna end in a tie, which means you would cover. Yeah,

802
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 2: there one of their wins this years eleven to ten.

803
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, a man, all right. So to recap stuck, you

804
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 3: got Dallas minus one and a half at Minnesota, the

805
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 3: Chargers plus five and a half hosting the Chiefs, and

806
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 3: the Texans as a home dog three and a half

807
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:45,120
Speaker 3: against the Commanders. I got the Indianapolis Colts six and

808
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 3: a half point home dogs against Philly, the Steelers four

809
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 3: and a half point home dogs against Cincy, and the

810
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 3: Vegas Raiders plus two and a half at Denver. Now

811
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 3: it's time for the Week eleven coaches pep talk.

812
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:04,399
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

813
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 2: to throw up so the press. I don't even want

814
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 2: to talk about it. I'm sick. I'm wanting you guys play.

815
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:13,400
Speaker 3: Just how bad can it get? This week's coaches pep

816
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 3: Talk comes to us from another real life coach. It's

817
00:44:17,880 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 3: from Clemson coach Dabo Swiney, and let's dedicate this one

818
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,400
Speaker 3: to Matt Lafleur because the Packers got it done in

819
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 3: ot but if they hadn't, there would have been a

820
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 3: lot of conversation about Aaron Rodgers just barking at him

821
00:44:32,280 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 3: yet again right in front of the cameras because he

822
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 3: wanted to run the ball, which is pretty surprising. So

823
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,839
Speaker 3: you know, have some fun out there. Matt covering from

824
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:45,759
Speaker 3: my boy Stucky this Thursday, and we're dedicating this coach,

825
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 3: is pep talk to you?

826
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 4: It's hard to win.

827
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 2: If you can't have fun winning, why you do it?

828
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:56,839
Speaker 4: To win consistently is really really really, really really really hard.

829
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 4: I don't want our players to ever walk off a

830
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:03,439
Speaker 4: field ever with a win and the so called feel

831
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 4: like a loss. Wow, how sad is that if it

832
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 4: ain't fun to win? Well, man, that's a sad state

833
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:13,560
Speaker 4: of affairs. I'm miserable when we lose. I ain't gonna

834
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 4: be miserable when we win. Nobody's going to ever steal

835
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:19,359
Speaker 4: my joy. Joy comes from within. If it ever gets

836
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 4: to where it's not fun to win, then you better

837
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 4: do something else.

838
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:24,920
Speaker 3: All right, let's get into our favorite totals.

839
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 2: I think we've had like eight row of these.

840
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 3: It's been pretty nuts. Like it's like it's almost I mean,

841
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,200
Speaker 3: of course we're probably we probably will jinx it now

842
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 3: that we're talking about it, but it has been a

843
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 3: good run, I think because I'm hitting my totals. I

844
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 3: am I think fourteen and two over my last six

845
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 3: four to six packs, like if you include the total,

846
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 3: so hopefully we can keep it going. I will start

847
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:54,320
Speaker 3: us off. I am going with Rams Saints under thirty

848
00:45:54,320 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 3: eight and a half. If you had the Rams under

849
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 3: last week, that was just a brutal bee what seven

850
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 3: seconds to go meaningless Van Jefferson touchdowns, So I feel

851
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 3: for you if you had that. But we're going we're

852
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 3: hitting the Rams this week. And here's why. Both of

853
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 3: these teams are already slow paced. Naturally, the Saints are

854
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 3: twenty seventh in situation neutral pace and the Rams are

855
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 3: twenty eighth, so you already expect a kind of shortened

856
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 3: game just from that. And then this Rams team just

857
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 3: keeps suffering offensive line injuries. And I'll get to the

858
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup in that whole situation. But Lara Jackson, who

859
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: was actually playing well at tackle for them, is out,

860
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:38,799
Speaker 3: Brewer is out. They might have to start Evans again

861
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:41,719
Speaker 3: in the interior, and he's been just the worst in

862
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 3: the games. But either way, this Rams team just cannot

863
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 3: get continuity on its offensive line and they cannot run block.

864
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:53,560
Speaker 3: It's been a just a struggle all year. And they

865
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 3: can't protect Stafford either. And remember he's in concussion protocol.

866
00:46:57,200 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 3: Now he did practice Wednesday, but still not cleared. You

867
00:47:01,320 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 3: can practice without being cleared, so I still don't full

868
00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 3: we get this protocol, but you can practice without being cleared.

869
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: He's still not cleared. And even if he is, with

870
00:47:10,560 --> 00:47:14,239
Speaker 3: this offensive line, you know they might be conservative, but

871
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 3: their backup Wolford also isn't practicing, so it could get

872
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 3: weird for this Rams team. And then you talk about

873
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 3: Cooper Cup, and if there was one player that the

874
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 3: Rams could not lose, even more so than losing Whitworth,

875
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 3: even more so than losing Obj in the offseason, if

876
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 3: there was one player the Rams cannot afford to lose

877
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 3: it is Cooper Cup. Thirty one percent of their scrimmage

878
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:47,880
Speaker 3: yards forty four percent of their touchdowns this season have

879
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 3: been accounted for by one Cooper Cup. It is a

880
00:47:53,440 --> 00:47:56,919
Speaker 3: devastating loss when you couple that with the offensive line

881
00:47:57,000 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: injuries and the fact that you know Stafford is you know,

882
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 3: I mean, he's at risk of another concussion even if

883
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 3: he suits up, just the way this offensive line is protecting.

884
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:08,239
Speaker 3: And then on the other side of the ball, you

885
00:48:08,360 --> 00:48:11,600
Speaker 3: have the Saints team and I'm starting to think this

886
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 3: Andy Dalton offense is running its course. They got exposed

887
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:17,319
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks ago at home against the Ravens,

888
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,359
Speaker 3: and they have been good at home previously, and then

889
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 3: they go to Pittsburgh and they don't score points again.

890
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 3: Have no idea what this team is doing without Sean.

891
00:48:26,960 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 3: They miss Schempagne. I'll put it that way. But why

892
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,359
Speaker 3: do why do we like Pittsburgh last week? Because they

893
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 3: can shut down the run, and we know the Saints

894
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,359
Speaker 3: offense if they're gonna get going, they're not just gonna

895
00:48:38,400 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 3: throw it all around yard Dogs is gonna get the

896
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 3: ball out quick, hopefully Ojave stops taking these wicked hits

897
00:48:44,280 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 3: because I don't know how he's taking so many disgusting

898
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 3: hits this year already, but great player love to see it.

899
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 3: But outside of Ojave and Camara, who they can't even

900
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 3: get going consistently from week to week, this offense is

901
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,399
Speaker 3: a crap shoot. But they want to run the ball,

902
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 3: and the Rams defend the run very well. They are

903
00:49:04,440 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 3: fourth in DVOWA against the run, twenty first against the pass.

904
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 3: They'll give up some easy completions, but you're gonna have

905
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 3: to drive the field against this Rams team because the

906
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 3: whole point of their defense is to limit explosive plays,

907
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 3: and they've been able for the most part to do that,

908
00:49:22,239 --> 00:49:24,759
Speaker 3: even though they rank twenty first in pass DVOA, which

909
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 3: isn't a big deal against the Saints, But the Rams

910
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 3: first and explosive rush rate on defense and first an

911
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 3: explosive pass rate on defense. So the one thing the

912
00:49:36,040 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 3: Rams do is prevent big plays, and the Saints are

913
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 3: not making a ton of them either. Rams Saints under

914
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: thirty eight and a half. If you can get to

915
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 3: thirty nine, I think it should be still out there.

916
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 3: But I like this. I think this is a high

917
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 3: twenties type of game, So not too worried about the

918
00:49:59,080 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 3: number here.

919
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: Don't hate the small I mean the Rams twenty eight

920
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:06,000
Speaker 2: percent rush success rate on the season. That's slowest NFL.

921
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,839
Speaker 2: The next lowest the Seahawks at thirty five twenty eight,

922
00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 2: twenty eight percent.

923
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:13,840
Speaker 3: I thought it was cam Aker's achilles, but everyone's just

924
00:50:13,920 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 3: running like they have a torn achilles. When when you

925
00:50:16,120 --> 00:50:17,560
Speaker 3: run this Rams in this Ram back.

926
00:50:17,719 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: You can't they can't protect Stafford is a pumpkin and

927
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: probably not fully healthy. And now you don't have a cop.

928
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 2: I don't know how they moved the ball at all.

929
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:28,320
Speaker 3: That's what fucked me up. And you, you know, I

930
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 3: give you credit. You were correct on the on the Bucks.

931
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,640
Speaker 3: But that's what fucked me up with my handicap of

932
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,280
Speaker 3: the Bucks Seahawks games because I watched a Bucks struggle

933
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 3: against the Rams for sixty minutes and I was like,

934
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 3: oh no, this, no, no way, because this Rams team

935
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 3: is bad.

936
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, for my total, I'm gonna go, We're

937
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 2: gonna get scary. I We're gonna go with the Bears

938
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 2: Falcons under forty nine and a half. So I like

939
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 2: this for a couple of reasons. Not for the defenses. Now,

940
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 2: the one good thing is that their past defenses are

941
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 2: real bad. Both these past defenses worse than their rush offense.

942
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 2: Rush defenses, but you're you're going against pass offenses that

943
00:51:06,520 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 2: aren't going to kill you. I just think that this

944
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 2: number is too high in you know, I make this

945
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 2: like forty seven forty seven and a half. I know

946
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 2: the Bears, and I've been saying Bears are a pure overteam,

947
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 2: but this is like a service academy game. Like this

948
00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:24,720
Speaker 2: is two pure running slow teams. If you're not firing

949
00:51:24,760 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 2: on all cylinders within the red zone, like, it's going

950
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:29,560
Speaker 2: to be tough to get into the fifties in this

951
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,400
Speaker 2: game because the clock is going to be speeding. Also,

952
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 2: the run defenses haven't been great. But both of these

953
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,719
Speaker 2: teams play a ton of zone. They fared okay when

954
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: you know, I was going back and looking at their

955
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 2: stats against running quarterbacks. They also don't get a ton

956
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 2: of pressure. They don't blitz, so like I think that

957
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 2: they're just gonna you know, you can stay home and

958
00:51:48,440 --> 00:51:51,719
Speaker 2: kind of try to contain fields. Try to stay home

959
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,120
Speaker 2: like so much with field SUT's like he gets pressure

960
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:56,919
Speaker 2: and everything breaks down and he's gone around the edge.

961
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 2: So yeah, both of these teams practice against mobiles quarterbacks.

962
00:52:00,840 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 2: It just slow teams, not great passing offenses, a lot

963
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 2: of running. I think it's going to be difficult to

964
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 2: get above this number.

965
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 3: I don't hate it. I'm actually thinking of backing the

966
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 3: Bears if they get up over a field go here.

967
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 3: I just think this Falcons team is coming back down

968
00:52:21,120 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 3: to earth, especially on offense. They were the Darings of

969
00:52:23,960 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 3: the league. They were recovering. It's like, oh, Arthur Smith,

970
00:52:26,200 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 3: he's making it work with Mariota. They got all these weapons,

971
00:52:29,560 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 3: and now it's just you're seeing Mariota's true colors, which

972
00:52:33,520 --> 00:52:35,719
Speaker 3: tends to happen with you know, you called it with

973
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:40,640
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush. When you have these backup caliber quarterbacks. As

974
00:52:40,719 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 3: the year goes on and teams get more and more

975
00:52:42,719 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 3: tape and you take more and more reps, more and

976
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 3: more reps under pressure, it just goes downhill. And I

977
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 3: think we're in the midst of that with this Falcons

978
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 3: offense and Mariota. So I know the Bears defense has

979
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:59,239
Speaker 3: been bad over these last two I mean most of

980
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 3: the season, but over these last few weeks. But don't

981
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 3: forget Miami's doing that to everybody. Detroit can put up

982
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:06,279
Speaker 3: points with the best of them. What I'm saying is

983
00:53:06,320 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 3: they haven't faced slouches on offense. And if you saw

984
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:13,439
Speaker 3: Marcus Mariota play against that panther D last we which

985
00:53:13,800 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 3: is an exploitable defense. I mean, the Bengals put up

986
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,640
Speaker 3: forty two the game before and the Falcons themselves put

987
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 3: up over thirty against him, so should have been an

988
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 3: exploitable defense and he could do absolutely nothing against him.

989
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 3: So I think it's I think it's going to continue

990
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:29,959
Speaker 3: to trend down. But if it does, it it's gonna

991
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:33,280
Speaker 3: be because, like you said, they're just running and running

992
00:53:33,360 --> 00:53:36,080
Speaker 3: and running, and I don't know what's going on. While

993
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 3: they're not using Patterson more. It seems like they could

994
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 3: absolutely stand to give him a few more touches. But

995
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 3: maybe off to buy they will. But either way, I

996
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 3: think should be a run a heavy game script the Bear. Still,

997
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:49,439
Speaker 3: you know, even with this new explosive offense, they still

998
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 3: run a toime. It's still throwing the ball under thirty

999
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 3: times a game.

1000
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, Khalil Herbert, which takes away some yeah

1001
00:53:57,600 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 2: explosiveness as well, and kind of your change your pace.

1002
00:54:00,760 --> 00:54:04,919
Speaker 3: Back He's got more carries than Montgomery in that last game,

1003
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 3: so he was more than a change of pace. He

1004
00:54:06,680 --> 00:54:08,280
Speaker 3: was kind of taken over that backfield.

1005
00:54:08,719 --> 00:54:10,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think he has a lot more explosive

1006
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 2: in this so he does.

1007
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,759
Speaker 3: He's he's one of the best guys at yards after

1008
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 3: contact in the entire league. Like in my model, if

1009
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,880
Speaker 3: I give Montgomery and Herbert the same amount of carries, like,

1010
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 3: let's say I give him both ten carries, Herbert will

1011
00:54:22,320 --> 00:54:24,440
Speaker 3: come out like five to seven yards better, which is

1012
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 3: ridiculous for you know, there's a lot of regression involves. Yeah,

1013
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 3: so yeah, all right, So to recap, I got Saints

1014
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:37,040
Speaker 3: rams under thirty eight and a half. I'd take that

1015
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,960
Speaker 3: down to hurry six and a half. I mean, I

1016
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 3: just don't see many points happening in this one. And

1017
00:54:43,960 --> 00:54:46,919
Speaker 3: Stuck has Bears Falcons under forty nine and a half.

1018
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:48,040
Speaker 3: What would you take it down.

1019
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 2: To forty nine and a half? I would take it

1020
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:55,600
Speaker 2: down to forty eight and a half, maybe forty eight

1021
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: if you have to.

1022
00:54:56,800 --> 00:55:00,120
Speaker 3: All right, now is jump into our favorite teasers of

1023
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 3: the week.

1024
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:05,480
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1025
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 3: Don't tease me?

1026
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 2: All right, Stuck, what are you doing this week, we'll

1027
00:55:21,880 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 2: do two here. We're gonna go to Raiders up over eight.

1028
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: Should talked about before low scoring game. Every Broncos game

1029
00:55:29,719 --> 00:55:32,919
Speaker 2: is the same script. I literally joke about every single

1030
00:55:33,000 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 2: Sunday tweet. Send a tweet and it's just a replay

1031
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,600
Speaker 2: every week. Happy to take you eight and a half there,

1032
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 2: and then let's seize the Bills down to blow a

1033
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,600
Speaker 2: field goal lost too straight. I think you know there

1034
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 2: might be some heavy winds here and some snow Allen

1035
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 2: as he showed last week last year, I should say,

1036
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:54,279
Speaker 2: and his arm looked fine, good enough last week, but

1037
00:55:54,400 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 2: last year and like thirty five hour wins, he's still

1038
00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:59,800
Speaker 2: firing the ball over. So I think that his legs

1039
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:02,360
Speaker 2: too will be important here. I do worry a bit

1040
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:05,720
Speaker 2: about the brown The Bills run defense against the Browns,

1041
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 2: but I think the Bills will find a way to

1042
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:11,800
Speaker 2: win this game. By the way, for speaking of potential totals,

1043
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 2: snover so people I always do about snovers. This could

1044
00:56:15,080 --> 00:56:18,320
Speaker 2: be a lot of snow, and I always snow snow

1045
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:21,719
Speaker 2: games the NFL. The overs hit seventy percent of the

1046
00:56:21,760 --> 00:56:25,640
Speaker 2: time historically. Now that's if you remove wind fifteen percent

1047
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 2: fifteen mile one hour winds are above. Just going back

1048
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,120
Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy, what is a snover? People are like,

1049
00:56:31,160 --> 00:56:33,600
Speaker 2: should we bet the over now? No? No, no, no.

1050
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:35,400
Speaker 2: First of all, you don't know if it's going to

1051
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 2: be a snowver until about an hour or two before kick.

1052
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:39,879
Speaker 2: And the reason is is you have to check the wind.

1053
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 2: Because the wind is too high, then it's just going

1054
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,319
Speaker 2: to negate any advantage that you can get with the show.

1055
00:56:46,320 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 2: And I'll get into that in the second number two.

1056
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:50,839
Speaker 2: You have to wait till the total bottoms out. Everyone

1057
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:52,279
Speaker 2: wants to bet the under of these games. You're already

1058
00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 2: seeing tweets ninety percent of bets. Ever, the biggest bet

1059
00:56:55,000 --> 00:56:56,879
Speaker 2: of the weekend is the under. Everyone's tweeting about aythy

1060
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 2: casual non betters under under? Under is me a blizzard?

1061
00:57:00,920 --> 00:57:02,359
Speaker 2: You also have to make sure that the snow isn't

1062
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:05,160
Speaker 2: too much, like you can't have two feet. You can't

1063
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 2: have a foot with like a blizzard because then no

1064
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 2: one can see, no one can move, and everyone plays

1065
00:57:11,960 --> 00:57:14,320
Speaker 2: so slow because you just you're drying off the ball

1066
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 2: and you drive like draw off your hands. No one

1067
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 2: can talk communicate. The game grinds to a halt. But

1068
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,120
Speaker 2: if it's not too bad and there's like snow on

1069
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 2: the ground and it's snowing a little bit. The best game,

1070
00:57:27,200 --> 00:57:30,440
Speaker 2: best example this is when Brady through like eight touchdowns.

1071
00:57:30,640 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 2: I think they beat the Titans, like fifth for them.

1072
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 3: It was he was like fifty eight to seven or

1073
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 3: some fifty. Remember that game, Yeah, yeah, something. Uh.

1074
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 2: The offense has and he's he talked about this on

1075
00:57:40,320 --> 00:57:44,000
Speaker 2: that documentary at Charles Woodson. He said he pointed in

1076
00:57:44,080 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 2: that snow game with the Raiders and said, this is

1077
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: the offense has such a big advantage here. They know

1078
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:51,880
Speaker 2: where they're going cutting. You know, you think about Leshawn McCoy,

1079
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 2: like one of the best cutting backs of all time.

1080
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 2: There's games with him and him in the snrow.

1081
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 3: I was just rewatching that game, the Snow games the

1082
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 3: Ions when McCoy just went.

1083
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:06,520
Speaker 2: Absolutely absolutely here a defender like you, you don't know.

1084
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 2: First of all, there's a cornerback. You don't know where

1085
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:12,160
Speaker 2: the receiver is going, you have no footing. Running back

1086
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:14,440
Speaker 2: cuts on you, You're you're loss. It's and at the

1087
00:58:14,720 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 2: the advantage of knowing where you're going on offense is massive.

1088
00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 2: If the conditions are right by the way in this game.

1089
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,920
Speaker 2: Also like Nick Chubb cutting and running in the right

1090
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:27,600
Speaker 2: conditions and this in the wind, you know, the Browns

1091
00:58:27,600 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 2: should run wild and the wind won't really affect alan.

1092
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 2: Those receivers will get open. He'll get them the ball.

1093
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, and you just want to wait till the

1094
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 2: total bottom's out, and like that's when we'll hit the

1095
00:58:40,240 --> 00:58:42,280
Speaker 2: snow ver. So I can't. I would have we would

1096
00:58:42,320 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: have been my total. Like the game started in two hours.

1097
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 2: I could see the conditions. But that's the that's the

1098
00:58:46,400 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 2: formula for the Snowver. You gotta make sure the wind

1099
00:58:48,840 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: isn't too bad all that, I don't think it's that

1100
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 2: big a factor in this game. You also have to

1101
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 2: make sure it's not too much snow, and the conditions

1102
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 2: aren't where you can't see and just a complete blizzard,

1103
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 2: because then everything grinds hall no one can move, not

1104
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 2: even the offensive players are so slow. You need like

1105
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: the perfect. They're not necessarily the perfect, but pretty good conditions,

1106
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 2: like certain conditions I should say for the snow Ver.

1107
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 2: So wait following the action app.

1108
00:59:13,920 --> 00:59:17,240
Speaker 3: Let's say you have a total let's say forty three

1109
00:59:17,360 --> 00:59:21,439
Speaker 3: is the real total absence of any weather in this game. Now,

1110
00:59:22,400 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 3: let's say there is going to be like non snow

1111
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 3: ver snow, like actually hindering snow. How much are you

1112
00:59:34,680 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 3: adjusting your number? Aka? How should people know you know,

1113
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 3: if they are looking about and under how much is

1114
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 3: too much to go?

1115
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,479
Speaker 2: It's all manual, there's not like a formula. Civil size

1116
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,080
Speaker 2: isn't great. It depends on the matchup, what the teams

1117
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 2: want to do. It depends where the total sits. How

1118
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 2: much does this come down? But I will tell you,

1119
00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: like if there's like a you know, eighteen inches of

1120
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 2: snow to clear it beforehand, but it's just coming down

1121
01:00:02,960 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 2: NonStop and you can't see anything, and there's wind that

1122
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:10,320
Speaker 2: means like and the you know, the balls getting clumped

1123
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 2: with snow and you can't you know, you can't really

1124
01:00:13,800 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 2: move that much there. There are certain times it's very rare,

1125
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:17,960
Speaker 2: Like you think about that McCoy game. There's a lot

1126
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:20,040
Speaker 2: of snow in the ground. Still you can NFL players

1127
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: can still get around. But if it was you know,

1128
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 2: if it's real bad, you know you might see one

1129
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,240
Speaker 2: of these games every couple of years. Then you know,

1130
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,400
Speaker 2: I would drop this total like thirty seven and a

1131
01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 2: half in the extreme of extreme conditions, which rarely happens.

1132
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:36,440
Speaker 2: Like the NFL field management is good, like you have

1133
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:39,360
Speaker 2: to have it being like peak Blizzard at the while

1134
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:41,640
Speaker 2: the game's going on with a lot of wins. But

1135
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:44,480
Speaker 2: if because if that occurs, then no one can communicate,

1136
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,640
Speaker 2: no one can move, and it takes forever. Like everyone

1137
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 2: is now snapping the ball one second on the game

1138
01:00:50,480 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 2: cloll every time, and everyone's just loading the box and

1139
01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:56,280
Speaker 2: then just running into each other like the games, you

1140
01:00:56,360 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 2: know without turnovers that the game would end like this

1141
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 2: game would end like most NFL like seventeen thirty without

1142
01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:03,800
Speaker 2: like turnovers.

1143
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the kicking, you know, they might forth go,

1144
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:09,880
Speaker 3: they might forego field goal attempts. I remember the Browns

1145
01:01:09,880 --> 01:01:11,680
Speaker 3: played a game I think.

1146
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 2: It was a year in that win last year that

1147
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:14,680
Speaker 2: wasn't even snow, they wouldn't even.

1148
01:01:14,600 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was just winning hard. Yeah. And I remember

1149
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 3: the Browns had one a couple of years ago. I

1150
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:20,800
Speaker 3: think it was against the Raiders where it was like

1151
01:01:21,200 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 3: eleven to seven or some some crazy Wolde numbers. So yeah,

1152
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 3: you just see you can The way you can kind

1153
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:31,200
Speaker 3: of do it mathematically is there is research out there

1154
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 3: that looks at completetion, percentage, yards for attempt, all the

1155
01:01:34,840 --> 01:01:37,959
Speaker 3: stats in snow and then you could kind of apply

1156
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 3: that to appoints, you know, an EPA model or something

1157
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 3: like that. But yeah, it would definitely drop in the

1158
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 3: in bad conditions like a touchdown or so, so just

1159
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 3: wanted to it.

1160
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:52,680
Speaker 2: It's more art than signs, I think, and it's also

1161
01:01:52,880 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 2: really fun. I'll tell you that. To bet.

1162
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 3: For my teaser, I'm going with the Raiders as well.

1163
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 3: There's just not many options to tease up over you know,

1164
01:02:02,960 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 3: eight in this one. On the slates, I'm going Raiders

1165
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:09,440
Speaker 3: already talked about why I like them outright on the spread.

1166
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 3: Also gonna go with the Vikings up to seven and

1167
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 3: a half year just because you kind of mentioned it.

1168
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:20,200
Speaker 3: They've been in one possession games all season long, so

1169
01:02:20,760 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 3: I think Dallas is the right side. But not expecting

1170
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 3: Minnesota to go in here and get blown out necessarily,

1171
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 3: just based on the way to play. They always find

1172
01:02:28,400 --> 01:02:33,280
Speaker 3: a way to stick around, all right, So Bills minus

1173
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:35,640
Speaker 3: to minus one, Raiders up to eight and a half

1174
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 3: are stuck, Raiders up to eight and a half, and

1175
01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 3: Vikings up to seven and a half. For me, now

1176
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 3: it's time for our money line underdog parlay. Turning good

1177
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:53,960
Speaker 3: weekends into great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay.

1178
01:02:55,120 --> 01:02:58,320
Speaker 3: Oh I finally got one, but unfortunately you're a hot

1179
01:02:58,400 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 3: streak could off.

1180
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:00,880
Speaker 2: So yeah, I've lost two straight.

1181
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:02,479
Speaker 3: Here do I have last week Denver?

1182
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:07,640
Speaker 2: Oh God, the fucking Titans. I've actually won four bets

1183
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:09,600
Speaker 2: against the Titans in a row. So all the people

1184
01:03:09,640 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: that say the Titans and they've covered seven straight, it's

1185
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 2: all been in teasers totals. So this is the first

1186
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:18,120
Speaker 2: time that I'm since early in the year. I'm going

1187
01:03:18,200 --> 01:03:20,240
Speaker 2: back against them with the Packers. So we'll see money

1188
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 2: line dog this week. Let's I'm just gonna go with

1189
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:28,080
Speaker 2: the Lions here. Giants outplayed again last week against the Texans.

1190
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:30,720
Speaker 2: They can't keep this up. They're seven to l one

1191
01:03:30,760 --> 01:03:33,560
Speaker 2: possession games. That's all seven of their wins. Campbell finally

1192
01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 2: won a road game. I know, gops of pumpkin outdoors,

1193
01:03:36,280 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 2: but this Giants seems banged up and Lions are actually

1194
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:42,880
Speaker 2: like if you look like DVA. They're higher than the Giants.

1195
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:45,760
Speaker 2: Their defense is actually improving a little bit. Their offense

1196
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:48,040
Speaker 2: is healthy. They should be able to move the ball

1197
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 2: a little bit and uh yeah, Giants have the Cowboys

1198
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:53,920
Speaker 2: on Thursday. Like, maybe they get caught looking ahead. Like

1199
01:03:54,000 --> 01:03:55,840
Speaker 2: all the vibes are good with the Giants to keep

1200
01:03:55,880 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 2: winning these games, but we're eventually not gonna get every break.

1201
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:04,280
Speaker 2: So let's take a shout the lines here, Hello Detroit.

1202
01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, Detroit showed some I thought that game was over.

1203
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 3: Next thing, I know, I look up and they're just

1204
01:04:14,800 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 3: they just won. Like I think there's a missed the team. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

1205
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:24,880
Speaker 3: I'm going back. I'm going to the Bears this week.

1206
01:04:25,320 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 3: Let's go Bears at the Falcons. The Bears keep losing

1207
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 3: these heartbreakers, but this you know, more design runs for fields.

1208
01:04:32,880 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 3: I think it's opened up the offense. Maybe they get

1209
01:04:35,920 --> 01:04:38,919
Speaker 3: Quaypool more involved this week. But either way, I think

1210
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 3: the Bears have played better than you know the Owen

1211
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,520
Speaker 3: Owen three over the last three week record willks. Remember

1212
01:04:46,560 --> 01:04:50,240
Speaker 3: they did have that impressive win in Foxborough against the Patriots,

1213
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 3: so I think they could absolutely steal one here on

1214
01:04:53,760 --> 01:04:56,760
Speaker 3: the road against this Falcon team. And I don't mind

1215
01:04:56,840 --> 01:05:00,680
Speaker 3: betting against Marcus Mariota at all what I saw out

1216
01:05:00,680 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 3: of him. Maybe we even get some mid game benching

1217
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 3: if we get some ridders, So either way, I think

1218
01:05:05,960 --> 01:05:09,640
Speaker 3: the Bears give you some some nice upside here. So

1219
01:05:10,400 --> 01:05:14,440
Speaker 3: if you parlay the Lions plus one thirty two at

1220
01:05:14,520 --> 01:05:18,080
Speaker 3: the Giants and the Bears plus one forty at the Falcons,

1221
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,760
Speaker 3: you get a payout of just over four and a

1222
01:05:20,800 --> 01:05:24,160
Speaker 3: half x so one hundred gets you back five fifty.

1223
01:05:24,320 --> 01:05:27,280
Speaker 3: So hopefully we can be on the right side at

1224
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:30,320
Speaker 3: the same time and hit another one of these parlays.

1225
01:05:31,600 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 3: Now it's time for the best of the rest. Games

1226
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 3: we haven't covered in any other segment, but are still,

1227
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:43,080
Speaker 3: as they say, meaningful to some That's gonna.

1228
01:05:42,800 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 2: Be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to some.

1229
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:48,280
Speaker 3: Of you, so you know what I mean. I got

1230
01:05:48,320 --> 01:05:51,520
Speaker 3: a couple of games that we didn't talk about. First up,

1231
01:05:51,960 --> 01:05:56,280
Speaker 3: the Carolina Panthers going to Baltimore to take on the Ravens.

1232
01:05:56,360 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 3: Ravens a thirty thirteen point favorite. The total is forty

1233
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:03,400
Speaker 3: one and a half. What are your thoughts on this one?

1234
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 2: And what is the other game we didn't talk about,

1235
01:06:06,600 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 2: the Jets at Patriots. Yeah, so I'll talk about these

1236
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:12,160
Speaker 2: these games together because I'm actually going to pair them together.

1237
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:13,880
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens are a great money line parlay

1238
01:06:13,960 --> 01:06:15,640
Speaker 2: piece this week. I don't think that they are at

1239
01:06:15,640 --> 01:06:17,160
Speaker 2: any resk of losing this game. It is the NFL.

1240
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:19,880
Speaker 2: They could lose, look at things happen, but I make

1241
01:06:19,920 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 2: them thirteen. Defense is only trending up getting healthier now,

1242
01:06:25,200 --> 01:06:27,959
Speaker 2: added rokeland Smith. They're also coming off of a bye

1243
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:31,040
Speaker 2: Panthers off of a mini by. Historically, Harbell's been really

1244
01:06:31,040 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 2: good there, same with Lamar Jackson. More Jackson seven to

1245
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:35,840
Speaker 2: two against the spread off of bye under Harbor covered

1246
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:37,680
Speaker 2: by eight and a half points per game. They also

1247
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 2: know Mayfield really well. Bigger Mayfield has been awful. He's

1248
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:42,800
Speaker 2: going to start here. Harbo's covered five in a row

1249
01:06:42,800 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 2: against Mayfield. They know his tendencies. And I just don't

1250
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 2: think that Carolina can really test this Ravens defense, and

1251
01:06:48,920 --> 01:06:51,919
Speaker 2: the Ravens will do enough on offense to get this cover.

1252
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 2: So money I'm going to money line the Ravens and

1253
01:06:55,000 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 2: I'm going to party do a moneyline parlay with the Patriots.

1254
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 2: I don't trust the Patriots to lay the three year

1255
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:06,000
Speaker 2: even three this game with a total of like thirty

1256
01:07:06,080 --> 01:07:09,000
Speaker 2: seven to thirty eight, where points will be hard to

1257
01:07:09,080 --> 01:07:11,320
Speaker 2: come by, but I do think the Patriots get it done.

1258
01:07:11,640 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 2: I think from a bye week perspective, obviously having Bill

1259
01:07:15,240 --> 01:07:20,320
Speaker 2: Belichick able to draw up defensive schemes for Zach Wilson

1260
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,520
Speaker 2: and a Jets offense that really can't run the ball

1261
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:26,200
Speaker 2: now without Breize Hall, it's not going to end well

1262
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,960
Speaker 2: for Zach Wilson. The Patriots actually lead the league in

1263
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:33,640
Speaker 2: pressure RATEEP Wilson under pressure eleven of fifty two for

1264
01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:37,840
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty eight yards, one touchdown, five interceptions

1265
01:07:37,920 --> 01:07:41,960
Speaker 2: of fourteen and a half percent turnover worthy play percentage.

1266
01:07:42,120 --> 01:07:44,720
Speaker 2: I think the next verse is like eleven, he's three

1267
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:48,440
Speaker 2: yards per attempt on fifty two attempts under pressure, so

1268
01:07:48,560 --> 01:07:50,640
Speaker 2: he's gonna be under pressure all day. It's not gonna

1269
01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:53,440
Speaker 2: end well. I also think mac Jones can really benefit

1270
01:07:53,480 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 2: from the buy here. You know, he was trying to

1271
01:07:55,680 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 2: come back from injury a little rusty, so I think

1272
01:07:58,480 --> 01:08:01,600
Speaker 2: getting him more reps. Look, the Jets defense is legit.

1273
01:08:02,040 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 2: They're also able to get pressure. Matt Jones also hasn't

1274
01:08:04,400 --> 01:08:07,160
Speaker 2: been great under pressure. It's not a great receiving corps.

1275
01:08:07,560 --> 01:08:09,760
Speaker 2: But I think they'll be able to do enough on

1276
01:08:09,840 --> 01:08:12,280
Speaker 2: the ground throwing to their backs like they did in

1277
01:08:12,440 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 2: the first game, and yeah, Jack Wilson's gonna lose this game,

1278
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:22,280
Speaker 2: and the Belichick dominance over the Jets will continue. I

1279
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:24,120
Speaker 2: think the last time that Jets have beat the Pats

1280
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:28,280
Speaker 2: was with Fitzpatrick eight years ago. So I'm gonna parlay

1281
01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:32,080
Speaker 2: the Patriots money line with the Ravens money line because

1282
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,160
Speaker 2: I don't want I don't trust any of these teams

1283
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:36,439
Speaker 2: that Jets in a Jets Patrios yah. I don't trust

1284
01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:38,160
Speaker 2: the Patriots win by within a field goal, but I

1285
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:39,320
Speaker 2: think they find a way to get it done.

1286
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 3: That's I think that game goes. It could go either way.

1287
01:08:44,560 --> 01:08:48,400
Speaker 3: That that, I think the Jets have as good of

1288
01:08:48,439 --> 01:08:51,400
Speaker 3: a chance as they've ever had of knocking off the Patriots.

1289
01:08:51,800 --> 01:08:53,120
Speaker 3: It's hard for me to get a feel of this

1290
01:08:53,280 --> 01:08:57,880
Speaker 3: matchup because in that first meeting was WEK eight. Yeah,

1291
01:08:57,920 --> 01:09:01,960
Speaker 3: we K I thought the same thing. I thought Zach

1292
01:09:02,000 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 3: Wilson would have no success, but he threw like over

1293
01:09:04,160 --> 01:09:06,560
Speaker 3: three hundred yards. He had a few big plays to

1294
01:09:06,600 --> 01:09:09,719
Speaker 3: Garrett Wilson who got over one hundred yards. An Quinn

1295
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 3: went off. I know the Patriots had one of their

1296
01:09:12,280 --> 01:09:15,960
Speaker 3: backup safety, so maybe that will happen again. But just

1297
01:09:16,320 --> 01:09:18,280
Speaker 3: it's tough for me to get a feel. Just this

1298
01:09:18,479 --> 01:09:21,439
Speaker 3: Jets defense is so talented that you know, Mac, I

1299
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:23,200
Speaker 3: don't trust Mac Jones, I guess, is what I'm trying

1300
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:26,800
Speaker 3: to say. Like Mac Jones, his numbers aren't as bad Wilson, No,

1301
01:09:26,960 --> 01:09:29,720
Speaker 3: I don't. But it's football. Either one of them could

1302
01:09:30,320 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 3: make a play that ends losing to the game. So yeah,

1303
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:34,400
Speaker 3: I just think it's more of a coin flip. I'm

1304
01:09:34,400 --> 01:09:37,120
Speaker 3: not as confident in the Patriots in this spot as

1305
01:09:37,200 --> 01:09:37,479
Speaker 3: you are.

1306
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, Wilson went. He went Men's for

1307
01:09:42,080 --> 01:09:48,960
Speaker 2: sixty three, Smith for twenty three, and Conklin for like nineteen.

1308
01:09:49,680 --> 01:09:52,719
Speaker 2: In the final minute down two touchdowns for ninety yards

1309
01:09:52,880 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 2: of those passing yards against pre that defense. So and

1310
01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:58,400
Speaker 2: that was a touchdown in ninety yards. So if he

1311
01:09:58,600 --> 01:10:01,120
Speaker 2: removed that drive against pre defense at a meaningless drive,

1312
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:05,360
Speaker 2: he was sub fifty percent completion rate, two hundred and

1313
01:10:05,439 --> 01:10:10,960
Speaker 2: forty five yards passing, one touchdown, three picks, some horrific picks.

1314
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:12,840
Speaker 2: And I just think the pressure is going to be

1315
01:10:12,880 --> 01:10:16,040
Speaker 2: the difference. Got Jets about Breze Hall. It's just not

1316
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 2: They just aren't harder to be able to run, which

1317
01:10:18,479 --> 01:10:21,160
Speaker 2: is what you need. To do against his Patriots defense

1318
01:10:21,800 --> 01:10:24,519
Speaker 2: established the run. The Jets in the first meeting average

1319
01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:26,920
Speaker 2: what three and a half three point four yards per carry.

1320
01:10:27,280 --> 01:10:29,320
Speaker 2: It's just they're missing the juice of haul and they

1321
01:10:29,360 --> 01:10:32,160
Speaker 2: have some offensive line injuries as well. The Jets are feisty,

1322
01:10:32,240 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 2: so they'll put up a fight here, but I think

1323
01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:35,080
Speaker 2: the Patriots will get it done.

1324
01:10:35,439 --> 01:10:37,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is hard for me to get a feel about.

1325
01:10:37,920 --> 01:10:40,360
Speaker 3: You know, I was pretty confident in them. It kind

1326
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:42,479
Speaker 3: of reminds me of that game against the Bears where

1327
01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:45,280
Speaker 3: it seemed like a really good teaser piece, money line,

1328
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:47,960
Speaker 3: part way spot and then the Bears just going there

1329
01:10:48,000 --> 01:10:50,880
Speaker 3: and just take care of business. I just it's tough

1330
01:10:50,920 --> 01:10:52,439
Speaker 3: for me, Like there's nothing I can really hang my

1331
01:10:52,479 --> 01:10:54,320
Speaker 3: hand on with the Patriots, even though they are a

1332
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:57,120
Speaker 3: good defense, they do get pressure, they can run the

1333
01:10:57,160 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 3: ball with Stevenson, it just gamed game. I just I

1334
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:03,519
Speaker 3: don't know, just just one of those teams. Haven't really

1335
01:11:03,560 --> 01:11:06,280
Speaker 3: been betting on or against them too much, more so

1336
01:11:06,560 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 3: just just taking their unders. But this one's with with

1337
01:11:10,360 --> 01:11:12,360
Speaker 3: with the bye weeks, i'd stay away from the under.

1338
01:11:12,439 --> 01:11:15,200
Speaker 3: I think, you know, the Patriots they could scheme up

1339
01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:17,360
Speaker 3: some things and you know, maybe you see a trick player,

1340
01:11:17,520 --> 01:11:20,000
Speaker 3: flea flicker or something that catches the Jets off guard,

1341
01:11:20,040 --> 01:11:21,600
Speaker 3: and who knows, maybe the Jets try to do the

1342
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:26,679
Speaker 3: same to get around Wilson. That is going to wrap

1343
01:11:26,760 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 3: it up for this week's pod, presented by Fandel. Be

1344
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:35,360
Speaker 3: sure to follow Stucky on the Action Network app at

1345
01:11:35,400 --> 01:11:38,519
Speaker 3: Stucky two. You can find me at Chris Raybon and

1346
01:11:38,600 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 3: you can find this at those same handles on Twitter

1347
01:11:41,280 --> 01:11:46,360
Speaker 3: as well actionnetwork dot com for all of our betting content,

1348
01:11:47,000 --> 01:11:51,679
Speaker 3: and we'll be back early next week for the Thanksgiving slate.

1349
01:11:51,840 --> 01:12:03,200
Speaker 3: So until then, get this money to the Scape.

1350
01:12:04,840 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 2: The scapegra