WEBVTT - Following Up on TechStuff Predictions from 2011 0:00:04.200 --> 0:00:12.120 Get in text technology with tech Stuff from dot com. 0:00:12.119 --> 0:00:15.360 Hey there, this is Jonathan Strickland and you are listening 0:00:15.400 --> 0:00:18.040 to tech Stuff and guys, I've got a treat for 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.360 you today. So a couple of weeks ago, a listener 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.360 alerted me to the fact that five years ago, on 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.480 I think it was August two thousand and eleven, we 0:00:28.520 --> 0:00:31.880 published an episode titled what will the Internet be Like 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.600 in five years? My co host at the time, Chris Palette, 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.480 and I sat down and we put on our prognosticator 0:00:38.560 --> 0:00:42.240 hats and we started making wild guesses and what the 0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:46.080 Internet will be like. And you'll never believe how close 0:00:46.080 --> 0:00:48.520 we got. Actually, you will believe it because we're gonna 0:00:48.520 --> 0:00:50.640 rerun that episode. But stay tuned because at the end 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:53.200 I got a little bit more to say. So enjoy 0:00:53.320 --> 0:01:01.720 this classic episode and keep score. I think you'll be surprised. So, um, 0:01:01.880 --> 0:01:04.000 Internet five years, how are we going to interact with it? 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:09.680 Lets go? Uh that's a good question, now, um it 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.880 would It would be easy for me to say that 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:17.440 that tablets are going to be there simply because they're 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:21.240 so hot right now. I definitely think mobile is is 0:01:21.400 --> 0:01:25.280 primarily the way people are going now. Um, don't get 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:29.959 the impression that, um, I've given up on uh computers, 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:33.880 specifically desktop computers, because I still enjoy not having to 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:36.080 haul around a lot of technology with me and and 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:39.760 having just a small device. Um, but I enjoy having 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:44.480 the the real estate of a nice giant screen now. Um. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:46.280 You know. But I think mobile is is the way 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:48.240 I think people want to be able to get stuff 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.600 anywhere and everywhere. So people are going to be designing content, 0:01:52.200 --> 0:01:56.400 um to fit multiple needs. Yeah, we're already seeing a 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:58.240 lot of that today, where you see a lot of 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:00.720 websites that have a mobile version and a full version. 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:04.120 And then we were seeing more and more smartphones that 0:02:04.240 --> 0:02:06.760 just bypass the mobile version go straight to the full 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:09.799 version because they are capable of displaying an entire web 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.639 page upon their you know, their screens, and of course 0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:15.760 tablets the same sort of thing. Uh. I agree. I 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:19.280 think that the Internet in five years will be much 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:23.960 more pervasive than the sense that mostly from the stuff 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.440 that we tend to carry with us, but that will 0:02:26.480 --> 0:02:29.080 be able to go from place to place and be 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.280 able to tag it tap into the Internet pretty much 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.600 anywhere we go. I mean, that's almost the case now 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:36.240 as it is but it should be even more so 0:02:36.280 --> 0:02:38.160 in the future. That will get to a point where 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:40.799 it will be really unusual when you're in a space 0:02:40.840 --> 0:02:44.280 where you cannot access the Internet at least any place 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:46.880 when you're on the land, and maybe when you're like 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.120 out at sea or something that might still be kind 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.079 of unusual unless you haven't have some sort of satellite modem. 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:55.840 But um, otherwise, I think, yeah, you pretty much have 0:02:56.080 --> 0:03:00.480 the Internet at your fingertips um from a variety of devices. 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:03.799 And we're talking about five years from now. So if 0:03:03.800 --> 0:03:05.840 you think about it, the iPhone came out in two 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:09.000 thousand seven, so as they're recording of this podcast, that 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:11.480 was four years ago, and already I think you could 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.560 argue that the iPhone has had a huge impact on 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:18.800 at least the way we consume the Internet and and 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:24.280 also how developers create applications for the Internet. Some of 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:25.600 the a lot of the things that are on the 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:29.080 iPhone and on Android and on other smartphone operating systems 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:33.720 as well. Um, they aren't necessarily a web browser, but 0:03:33.760 --> 0:03:37.920 they do tie into the Internet in some way, right 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:41.520 Like Like for example, with Google, I have Google Navigator 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:45.280 and that uses Google Maps and it uses GPS in 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:50.920 order to help me navigate through to a destination. Um, 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.400 you know, that's something that we wouldn't have really thought about, 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:56.840 you know, ten years ago, then we started getting GPS 0:03:57.000 --> 0:04:00.600 units to really hit the market, and now smartphones are 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.920 kind of displacing those. So five years from now, I 0:04:04.080 --> 0:04:09.280 imagine that um smartphones will be pretty much the the 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.440 the most common kind of mobile device that people will 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.440 be carrying around with them. Capable of that, we may 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:18.080 finally start seeing some things, like some smart watches that 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:22.200 are actually worth purchasing. I mean, there's been smart watches 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:25.240 in the past that have been kind of interesting but 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:27.839 just haven't quite worked. And I think part of that is, 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:29.600 you know, there are a lot of issues you gotta 0:04:29.680 --> 0:04:33.760 work around, like how how do you miniaturize the components 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:38.440 to that size where it's still a compelling product right right, 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.200 And and I think that's one of those things too, 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.400 where years ago people were talking about how everything was 0:04:44.400 --> 0:04:47.400 going miniaturized, and now that we have smartphones, we won't 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:51.440 need laptops. And I know I'm not the only person 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:53.800 who likes a nice big screen when you're actually doing work, 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.640 not to mention a nice big keyboard. Yes, and and 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.200 the truth of the matter is I think that, um, 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:03.560 there's a certain practical point. It's not that we can't 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:06.400 make a smart watch that would do those kinds of things. 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.799 I think the practical reality is that at a certain 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.800 point it's kind of difficult to use, especially with fat 0:05:12.839 --> 0:05:16.799 fingers like mine. Uh, something that has a touch screen 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:21.119 that's that small. Yeah, and voice input still isn't quite 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:24.200 there yet. It's close. Google has done a really good 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:26.599 job with voice input. I mean, I'm very impressed with 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:28.680 what they've done so far, and I'm sure that five 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:32.640 years from now it'll probably be really phenomenal where uh, 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:37.440 navigating by voice will be quite easy. It's it's hard 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:39.400 for us to make that leap right now because it's 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:43.320 so it seems so foreign to to think about talking 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:45.960 to a computer, especially if you're talking about any sort 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.960 of you're in a public place, or you're say in 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.240 an office at work or whatever, or you have an 0:05:51.240 --> 0:05:54.359 accent that may be unreadable too, or you want to 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:58.760 look up something that is really um personal, yeah, like 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.520 some sort of medical issue, you know, that sort of stuff. 0:06:01.560 --> 0:06:03.880 You don't want to be talking out loud to your machine. 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:07.600 So clearly, the physical input is never going to completely 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:09.520 go away unless we finally get to a point where 0:06:09.560 --> 0:06:12.919 we can just telepathically interact with our devices, which is 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:14.920 not going to happen in five years. There's one of 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:18.000 my solid predictions there. We are not going to have 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:22.320 a point where we have mind controlled devices in five years. UM. 0:06:22.480 --> 0:06:27.719 So it's more pervasive, We've got more access. I actually 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:33.360 see some more overlapping technologies coming in, possibly possibly some 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.560 new technologies. But really there's the stuff that I'm imagining 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:39.719 is we're totally capable of doing right now, and that 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:49.600 is having UM context specific Internet uh well, uh, attractions 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:52.640 or or situations or circumstances. What I mean by that 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:57.400 is that you could create an application, let's say, that 0:06:57.480 --> 0:07:02.359 reacts to UM signal spent sent on a specific wavelength, 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:08.320 and then you create transmitters that transmit things on that wavelength, 0:07:08.440 --> 0:07:11.520 so that when you come into the proximity of that transmitter, 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.679 then your device begins to interact with it in whatever 0:07:15.800 --> 0:07:19.720 way you had designed. And and here's an easy example 0:07:19.720 --> 0:07:22.880 of this, because these things exist already. Uh. An example 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:25.280 of this is pal Mickey. Have you heard about pal 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:27.880 Mickey at Disney World. I've heard about it, but I 0:07:27.920 --> 0:07:29.880 don't know a lot about it. Okay, So pal Mickey 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:31.960 is this idea that Disney came up with a couple 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:34.559 of years ago where they have the Mickey Mouse doll 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:38.840 and inside there is a receiver and the receiver picks 0:07:38.920 --> 0:07:41.880 up radio signals as you get close enough, you know, 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:44.840 when you get within range, the receiver picks up the 0:07:44.880 --> 0:07:47.960 signal and makes pal Mickey tell you something. And let's 0:07:48.000 --> 0:07:50.360 say that you're at one of the Disney parks and 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:53.840 you're walking around. Well, they make the transmitters, um, they 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:56.840 only give them enough power to transmit within a certain range. 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:59.400 So that way you're not getting all these transmissions. You know, 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:01.360 Mickey does and go into seizures as soon as you 0:08:01.360 --> 0:08:05.480 walk through the Magic Kingdom gates. Um. But when you 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.320 get close enough, Mickey will make a little noise you 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:10.400 press press, I think one of his hands and then 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:13.160 he says, uh. The information like he might tell you 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:15.080 how long the weight is for the Pirates of the 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:17.440 Caribbean ride, or he might give you a little bit 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:20.320 of trivia information about one of the buildings you're passing. 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:24.920 And it's all based upon just radio waves. There's no 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:28.160 no real Internet involved here. But there's no reason why 0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:31.080 you couldn't have that connected with the Internet where you 0:08:31.160 --> 0:08:34.559 have these transmitters that are not necessarily meant to transmit 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:38.440 signals across an entire city, but maybe just like a 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:41.400 general area around the building that they are attached to, 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:44.680 and that it could give you updated information about stuff. 0:08:44.760 --> 0:08:47.520 Let's say a store sale goes on and you've got 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.480 this app that alerts alerts you when a sale starts, 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:55.440 and you could even have specific sales happening within oh 0:08:55.480 --> 0:08:58.480 like a two hour range, and it's just if you 0:08:58.520 --> 0:09:00.240 happen to be in the area that you find doubt 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:03.000 about it. And this is a way of of kind 0:09:03.040 --> 0:09:06.600 of adding more of that sort of engagement thing we've 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:09.600 talked about in previous episodes, Like I see that as 0:09:09.640 --> 0:09:12.520 being a possibility where we have not just a pervasive Internet, 0:09:12.720 --> 0:09:16.640 but a contextual Internet as well. So it's it's timely. 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.400 A lot of the stuff we see on the Internet 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:21.160 is designed to be what we call evergreen. We call 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.040 it that here at how stuff works all the time, 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:26.720 and evergreen piece of content is something that should be 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:30.600 relevant today, and it should be relevant five years from now, 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:32.640 It should be relevant ten years from now. You should 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:34.280 be always be able to go back to that piece 0:09:34.320 --> 0:09:38.040 of content and it means exactly what needs to mean. Uh. 0:09:38.040 --> 0:09:40.000 And then there's other content that we create that is 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.800 very timely that you know, after after a few months, 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:45.640 it may not have the impact that it once had, 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:47.960 or it might need to be updated on a near 0:09:48.040 --> 0:09:51.680 constant basis, like most of this stuff that is in 0:09:51.720 --> 0:09:56.600 the tech channels. Because here's the funny thing about technology, 0:09:56.600 --> 0:10:01.640 it keeps on changing. Now I think, I think location 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:05.320 based services to um. You know, there there are millions 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:07.840 of people with smartphones, but it's really only scratching the 0:10:07.880 --> 0:10:10.360 surface of the population in general. I think now that 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:14.440 they're starting to become more affordable, UM, there's real competition 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:18.959 in the smartphone market for consumers. UM, and the cost 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:23.000 of providing data goes down. UM. You know, I think 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:26.400 it will be more compelling for people to sign onto 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:30.160 location based services and uh, you know, get offers as 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:33.080 they're walking by and subscribe to that too. I don't 0:10:33.080 --> 0:10:36.800 know so much about augmented reality UM personally, because I mean, 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.040 I think it will become more popular, but I still 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.280 don't think it's going to become dominant, simply because it 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.360 requires you to look around with your phone and you 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:49.040 could trip and fall. Yeah, I mean, if if we 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:50.880 if we ever do get to a point where you 0:10:50.920 --> 0:10:55.000 can have those glasses that do the do the transparent 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.480 display where you can see the display of information on 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.360 your glasses like it heads up to play. Yeah, essentially 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:05.000 a heads up display for you know, just the exactly 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.000 just looking around and seeing what that their restaurants raty 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:13.120 today is. Um. You know, it's uh, we've been promised 0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:14.960 that for a while. It's almost because it's almost starting 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.960 to enter the realm of jet packs and flying cars. Uh. 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.280 I know, I know that there are jet packs and 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:25.079 flying cars, but they're not predominant, right, They're not everywhere, 0:11:25.200 --> 0:11:29.080 So that's what I'm talking about. Um. Also, I just 0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:32.120 think that again, you know, unless it's something that could 0:11:32.120 --> 0:11:35.559 be built into your existing eyewear, I just don't see 0:11:35.600 --> 0:11:39.240 it being that compelling, just because it means more people 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.000 are like, well, great, now there's another thing I gotta 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:43.679 buy and wear. You know. I wish I could have 0:11:43.720 --> 0:11:46.679 a show of hands, but I can't, and and you 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:48.480 don't need to email. But I was just thinking how 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:55.160 many people heard you say eyewear and thought, I, well, 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.560 you know, if Apple does come out with with glasses. 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:02.640 They will call it eyewear and they should pay me. Uh, 0:12:02.760 --> 0:12:06.840 it's trademarked, Jonathan Strickland, not really trademarked. Yeah, so I 0:12:06.880 --> 0:12:10.160 think I think we might actually see other Internet capable 0:12:10.240 --> 0:12:13.520 devices really starting to to to play a part. I mean, 0:12:13.559 --> 0:12:17.800 we've at Cees of eleven, there were a lot of 0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:22.440 of appliances that were Internet capable. The Internet of Things. Yeah, 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.880 so this this would be the case of having other 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:29.600 things on the Internet besides computers, mobile devices and that 0:12:29.679 --> 0:12:31.800 kind of thing. It would be more like things like 0:12:31.880 --> 0:12:36.720 refrigerators and um washers and dryers and a lot of 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.960 this is you know, goes into home automation. Some of 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:44.200 it is is just information management. Like let's say you 0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.560 want to manage the list of things that are in 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.360 your refrigerator. Is that when you go shopping, you know, 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:53.120 you know what you need to pick up that sort 0:12:53.160 --> 0:12:55.840 of stuff. Uh. I think within five years we'll probably 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.040 see a lot more of that. Um. I don't know 0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:01.800 that it will again be the dominant kind of appliance 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:03.680 on the market. I think that will still be sort 0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.160 of the I think it will still be somewhat of 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:09.200 a niche market, maybe maybe a larger niche than it 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.760 is right now. But I don't think of it. I 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:13.680 don't think that will be I don't think you would 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:16.520 walk into an appliance store and and ninety percent of 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:19.400 the stuff you see would be Internet capable. Well, here's 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:22.520 here's a thought on that. They've been predicting this for years. 0:13:22.960 --> 0:13:26.520 We were all going to have radio frequency identification tags 0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:29.320 r f i D tags inside all of our products, 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.680 so you can have all your stuff in the fridge, 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:36.360 and the fridge is able to identify what's in there 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.240 and when you bought it and when you bought it, 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:40.719 and there would be a screen up on the on 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.120 the front of the fridge that says, hey, you know what, 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:45.800 you could make this for dinner because you have all 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.200 the ingredients you need to make this, or you could 0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.040 make that and it will give you recipes and things, 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.320 which is a really neat idea. But they've been again 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.960 predicting this for years. It might also say it hasn't 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.520 happened yet. I also say the peaches are restless. You 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:02.400 need to throw them out. The peaches restless. One of 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:06.000 them growled at me. Yeah, that's when potato salad goes bade. 0:14:07.440 --> 0:14:11.960 The technology to do. This isn't hasn't been out of 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.640 the realm of possibility for for several years. I mean, 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.120 this is doable, but we're not doing it. It's yeah, 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:19.360 it's adopt It's an adoption thing. I mean, you know, 0:14:19.520 --> 0:14:21.600 in some cases, you've got companies that are trying to 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:24.200 create products for which there is no demand, and then 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.000 they're trying to generate the demand for that product, and 0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:29.600 sometimes that works. Like you know, you could argue that 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.440 Steve Jobs does that all the time. Well he You 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.320 know that the iPad is a clear example of this, 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:38.280 and I still, um, when it first came out, I 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.360 saw a lot of criticism that it was a product 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:45.000 that that no one needed and which is still technically true. 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.320 Nobody needs a tablet. Well, okay, a few people need 0:14:48.360 --> 0:14:50.880 a tablet. Let's say that. Um, there are there are 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:53.920 some some roles that really could use a small computing 0:14:53.960 --> 0:14:56.160 device like that. So but for a lot of people, 0:14:56.200 --> 0:15:00.120 it's a it's something they want. And uh, you know 0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:01.680 now that it's been a year later, as of the 0:15:01.680 --> 0:15:03.560 time we've recorded this, almost a year and a half 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.160 after the iPads released, there are lots of different kinds 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.360 of tablets in the market. The tablet market is taking 0:15:08.400 --> 0:15:11.520 off sort of like the netbook market did um a 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:16.040 few years ago, and I saw criticism, Uh probably about 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:19.720 two or three months before we recorded this, we were saying, well, 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.040 you know, I still don't think there's any reason why 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.560 anyone needs a tablet. Most of the people I see 0:15:24.600 --> 0:15:28.960 who say they they have really integrated tablet into their 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.240 lifestyle bought one and then found a use for it. 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:34.160 But I would argue that's the way it was with 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:37.600 personal computers back in the day. And I think I 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:39.920 don't think tablets are going away simply because I think 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:42.800 people who buy them, you know, now that there is 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:44.600 a market for it, people are going to start creating 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.320 more useful software for it. And I think people will 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:51.600 start using their tablets to do more creative work than 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:53.640 they used to be able to do, simply because there 0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.360 wasn't software for it on the on the initial release 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:59.280 of these devices, and there will be now that now 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:01.640 that it's coming out, there already is quite a bit 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:03.960 of creative software, and I think they're just going to 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.560 be more. It's just gonna be another tier of products 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:10.320 in between smartphones and computers. I think that there's also 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:14.400 the potential that we could see even more products introduced 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:18.240 into that space that don't fit the tablet model or 0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:21.160 the smartphone model. I mean, it's hard to say, because 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:22.880 it's five years from now. There's a lot of smart 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:24.880 people working on these things, and who knows who could 0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.280 come up with the next big thing. I mean I 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.760 mentioned smart watches which could fit into that category. But 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.520 for example, here's here's just something just out of the blue. 0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:36.320 Let's say that someone decides to create a device that 0:16:36.640 --> 0:16:42.400 is similar to a smartphone but is essentially a kind 0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:46.720 of the the the step between smartphone and a MP 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.000 three players, So not that not an iPod touch, which 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.360 you could argue is kind of in that realm too, 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.760 but more about it's more focused just on the music. 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:57.280 So in other words, you create a device that is 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:01.840 um specifically designed to help you tap into the streaming 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:05.400 music services that are out there. So you know there's 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:08.280 smartphones that can do this as well. So you could argue, well, 0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.560 maybe there's not a market for this, but then you 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:12.399 could say, well, you might want to have one of 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.399 these devices that doesn't run quite as many applications, is 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:19.120 not as process or intensive, doesn't run down the battery 0:17:19.200 --> 0:17:22.880 as quickly, doesn't doesn't tax your smartphones battery at all. 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:27.919 That would let you tap into these massive cloud storage services, 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:32.600 things like Google Music or Amazon or iTunes, the icloudum 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:36.399 or Spotify, any of these sort of services where you 0:17:36.440 --> 0:17:40.640 could stream or or otherwise consume the music on this 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:45.000 device without it affecting your other devices, because I mean, 0:17:45.400 --> 0:17:47.720 I have a smartphone that's capable of doing these sort 0:17:47.720 --> 0:17:50.919 of things, but I rarely use those capabilities because it 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:53.600 runs down the battery and I don't want, you know, 0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:55.639 I want to have my phone available in case I 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:59.640 want to for some reason make a phone call. So 0:18:00.640 --> 0:18:02.800 I could see that sort of thing becoming thing where 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.280 the next MP three player isn't necessarily focused on how 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:09.879 many songs it can store, but rather it's access to 0:18:10.000 --> 0:18:14.760 various streaming services or or cloud storage services. Uh, that's 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.760 a possibility. Um. So we've talked about mobility, We've talked 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:23.200 about a lot more of uh appliances that would be 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:26.359 connected to the Internet. I mean, you can you're starting 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.560 to see that already with cars as well, where you 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.480 have cars that don't necessarily connect directly to the Internet, 0:18:32.520 --> 0:18:35.160 but when you park them in your garage, they can 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:38.600 sync up via Bluetooth or some other method to your 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.920 home network, and you can transfer data back and forth 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.200 across um, usually music, but you can do other things 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:47.720 as well well. You can also have equipment put in 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.080 your car to make a hot spot too. Yeah, so 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:51.840 we're probably going to see a lot more of that 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:55.680 as well. You know, again, the ubiquitous access. Uh So 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.399 that's that's kind of like the shiny happy version of 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:00.560 what the Internet could be like in five years and 0:19:00.560 --> 0:19:02.760 how we would access the Internet. I don't see it 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:05.520 as necessarily being a total revolution from the way we're 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:09.760 doing it now, but probably um a much more pervasive 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:12.879 way of what we do now. Let's talk about some 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:17.520 possible dark side elements to what the Internet could be 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:20.560 like in five years. So dark side number one, and 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.679 this is a big one, is that we could see 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:30.679 Internet service providers I sps start to um limit the 0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:35.439 kinds of of services and content you have access to. 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:39.400 In other words, let's say that this is essentially the 0:19:39.640 --> 0:19:45.240 scenario where net neutrality is no longer even a concept. 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:48.480 It's gone. In this case, you have I s p 0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.520 s that are able to strike up partnerships, let's say, 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:57.359 with various content providers and service providers in theory, not 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:00.359 that I would ever expect this to happen, but in theory, 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.679 lets you could have a particular Internet service provider partner 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:07.920 with say Facebook, and then anyone who is a customer 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.800 of that I s P has access to Facebook. Anyone 0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:13.880 who is not a customer with that I s P doesn't, Right, 0:20:14.280 --> 0:20:16.880 I mean, that's that's an extreme example that I don't 0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:19.840 think could ever happen because Facebook, of course is so huge, 0:20:20.000 --> 0:20:24.240 it's got, you know, way more subscribers than you would 0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:28.440 ever see be tied to a specific provider. But I 0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:32.360 could easily see that from for emerging services and content. 0:20:33.040 --> 0:20:36.879 So or let's say that the Internet service providers that 0:20:36.920 --> 0:20:41.399 are also cable companies limited so that you can only 0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:45.520 access their content they create through their I s P. 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:50.040 So if you are on I s P B and 0:20:50.119 --> 0:20:53.040 you want to see the content that I s P 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:58.320 A creates through its cable company part of its corporation, 0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:03.120 you're on the lock. At least you can't see it online. Um, 0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:05.680 we're starting to see some of that emerge right now. Now. 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:10.320 Whether or not that continues is another question, but it 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:13.760 could very well be that within five years your experience 0:21:13.800 --> 0:21:16.760 on the Internet is completely dictated by the Internet service 0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:20.520 provider you belong to, or cell phone carrier in that case, 0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:23.560 because it may be that you have one kind of 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:26.199 Internet when you get home because you are you're a 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:28.359 customer of one I s P, and you have a 0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:30.280 different kind of Internet when you access it on your 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:32.440 phone because you belong you know, you've got a contract 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.720 with a specific cell phone carrier. And that would be 0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:38.720 crazy really because you could think like, oh, this video 0:21:38.800 --> 0:21:40.040 is great, but I'll watch it when I get home, 0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.080 and then you realize, oh, I can't access it at 0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:44.480 home because my I s P doesn't have a deal 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.600 with that particular content provider. Yeah, I think it's more 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:51.119 likely that you'll see throttling. Um, Like, if you have 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.639 if you want to use a particular streaming radio radio 0:21:55.400 --> 0:22:00.959 service and you are on a cable company that doesn't 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:04.000