Speaker 1: Get in text technology with tech Stuff from dot com.
Speaker 1: Hey there, this is Jonathan Strickland and you are listening
Speaker 1: to tech Stuff and guys, I've got a treat for
Speaker 1: you today. So a couple of weeks ago, a listener
Speaker 1: alerted me to the fact that five years ago, on
Speaker 1: I think it was August two thousand and eleven, we
Speaker 1: published an episode titled what will the Internet be Like
Speaker 1: in five years? My co host at the time, Chris Palette,
Speaker 1: and I sat down and we put on our prognosticator
Speaker 1: hats and we started making wild guesses and what the
Speaker 1: Internet will be like. And you'll never believe how close
Speaker 1: we got. Actually, you will believe it because we're gonna
Speaker 1: rerun that episode. But stay tuned because at the end
Speaker 1: I got a little bit more to say. So enjoy
Speaker 1: this classic episode and keep score. I think you'll be surprised. So, um,
Speaker 1: Internet five years, how are we going to interact with it?
Speaker 1: Lets go? Uh that's a good question, now, um it
Speaker 1: would It would be easy for me to say that
Speaker 1: that tablets are going to be there simply because they're
Speaker 1: so hot right now. I definitely think mobile is is
Speaker 1: primarily the way people are going now. Um, don't get
Speaker 1: the impression that, um, I've given up on uh computers,
Speaker 1: specifically desktop computers, because I still enjoy not having to
Speaker 1: haul around a lot of technology with me and and
Speaker 1: having just a small device. Um, but I enjoy having
Speaker 1: the the real estate of a nice giant screen now. Um.
Speaker 1: You know. But I think mobile is is the way
Speaker 1: I think people want to be able to get stuff
Speaker 1: anywhere and everywhere. So people are going to be designing content,
Speaker 1: um to fit multiple needs. Yeah, we're already seeing a
Speaker 1: lot of that today, where you see a lot of
Speaker 1: websites that have a mobile version and a full version.
Speaker 1: And then we were seeing more and more smartphones that
Speaker 1: just bypass the mobile version go straight to the full
Speaker 1: version because they are capable of displaying an entire web
Speaker 1: page upon their you know, their screens, and of course
Speaker 1: tablets the same sort of thing. Uh. I agree. I
Speaker 1: think that the Internet in five years will be much
Speaker 1: more pervasive than the sense that mostly from the stuff
Speaker 1: that we tend to carry with us, but that will
Speaker 1: be able to go from place to place and be
Speaker 1: able to tag it tap into the Internet pretty much
Speaker 1: anywhere we go. I mean, that's almost the case now
Speaker 1: as it is but it should be even more so
Speaker 1: in the future. That will get to a point where
Speaker 1: it will be really unusual when you're in a space
Speaker 1: where you cannot access the Internet at least any place
Speaker 1: when you're on the land, and maybe when you're like
Speaker 1: out at sea or something that might still be kind
Speaker 1: of unusual unless you haven't have some sort of satellite modem.
Speaker 1: But um, otherwise, I think, yeah, you pretty much have
Speaker 1: the Internet at your fingertips um from a variety of devices.
Speaker 1: And we're talking about five years from now. So if
Speaker 1: you think about it, the iPhone came out in two
Speaker 1: thousand seven, so as they're recording of this podcast, that
Speaker 1: was four years ago, and already I think you could
Speaker 1: argue that the iPhone has had a huge impact on
Speaker 1: at least the way we consume the Internet and and
Speaker 1: also how developers create applications for the Internet. Some of
Speaker 1: the a lot of the things that are on the
Speaker 1: iPhone and on Android and on other smartphone operating systems
Speaker 1: as well. Um, they aren't necessarily a web browser, but
Speaker 1: they do tie into the Internet in some way, right
Speaker 1: Like Like for example, with Google, I have Google Navigator
Speaker 1: and that uses Google Maps and it uses GPS in
Speaker 1: order to help me navigate through to a destination. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, that's something that we wouldn't have really thought about,
Speaker 1: you know, ten years ago, then we started getting GPS
Speaker 1: units to really hit the market, and now smartphones are
Speaker 1: kind of displacing those. So five years from now, I
Speaker 1: imagine that um smartphones will be pretty much the the
Speaker 1: the most common kind of mobile device that people will
Speaker 1: be carrying around with them. Capable of that, we may
Speaker 1: finally start seeing some things, like some smart watches that
Speaker 1: are actually worth purchasing. I mean, there's been smart watches
Speaker 1: in the past that have been kind of interesting but
Speaker 1: just haven't quite worked. And I think part of that is,
Speaker 1: you know, there are a lot of issues you gotta
Speaker 1: work around, like how how do you miniaturize the components
Speaker 1: to that size where it's still a compelling product right right,
Speaker 1: And and I think that's one of those things too,
Speaker 1: where years ago people were talking about how everything was
Speaker 1: going miniaturized, and now that we have smartphones, we won't
Speaker 1: need laptops. And I know I'm not the only person
Speaker 1: who likes a nice big screen when you're actually doing work,
Speaker 1: not to mention a nice big keyboard. Yes, and and
Speaker 1: the truth of the matter is I think that, um,
Speaker 1: there's a certain practical point. It's not that we can't
Speaker 1: make a smart watch that would do those kinds of things.
Speaker 1: I think the practical reality is that at a certain
Speaker 1: point it's kind of difficult to use, especially with fat
Speaker 1: fingers like mine. Uh, something that has a touch screen
Speaker 1: that's that small. Yeah, and voice input still isn't quite
Speaker 1: there yet. It's close. Google has done a really good
Speaker 1: job with voice input. I mean, I'm very impressed with
Speaker 1: what they've done so far, and I'm sure that five
Speaker 1: years from now it'll probably be really phenomenal where uh,
Speaker 1: navigating by voice will be quite easy. It's it's hard
Speaker 1: for us to make that leap right now because it's
Speaker 1: so it seems so foreign to to think about talking
Speaker 1: to a computer, especially if you're talking about any sort
Speaker 1: of you're in a public place, or you're say in
Speaker 1: an office at work or whatever, or you have an
Speaker 1: accent that may be unreadable too, or you want to
Speaker 1: look up something that is really um personal, yeah, like
Speaker 1: some sort of medical issue, you know, that sort of stuff.
Speaker 1: You don't want to be talking out loud to your machine.
Speaker 1: So clearly, the physical input is never going to completely
Speaker 1: go away unless we finally get to a point where
Speaker 1: we can just telepathically interact with our devices, which is
Speaker 1: not going to happen in five years. There's one of
Speaker 1: my solid predictions there. We are not going to have
Speaker 1: a point where we have mind controlled devices in five years. UM.
Speaker 1: So it's more pervasive, We've got more access. I actually
Speaker 1: see some more overlapping technologies coming in, possibly possibly some
Speaker 1: new technologies. But really there's the stuff that I'm imagining
Speaker 1: is we're totally capable of doing right now, and that
Speaker 1: is having UM context specific Internet uh well, uh, attractions
Speaker 1: or or situations or circumstances. What I mean by that
Speaker 1: is that you could create an application, let's say, that
Speaker 1: reacts to UM signal spent sent on a specific wavelength,
Speaker 1: and then you create transmitters that transmit things on that wavelength,
Speaker 1: so that when you come into the proximity of that transmitter,
Speaker 1: then your device begins to interact with it in whatever
Speaker 1: way you had designed. And and here's an easy example
Speaker 1: of this, because these things exist already. Uh. An example
Speaker 1: of this is pal Mickey. Have you heard about pal
Speaker 1: Mickey at Disney World. I've heard about it, but I
Speaker 1: don't know a lot about it. Okay, So pal Mickey
Speaker 1: is this idea that Disney came up with a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago where they have the Mickey Mouse doll
Speaker 1: and inside there is a receiver and the receiver picks
Speaker 1: up radio signals as you get close enough, you know,
Speaker 1: when you get within range, the receiver picks up the
Speaker 1: signal and makes pal Mickey tell you something. And let's
Speaker 1: say that you're at one of the Disney parks and
Speaker 1: you're walking around. Well, they make the transmitters, um, they
Speaker 1: only give them enough power to transmit within a certain range.
Speaker 1: So that way you're not getting all these transmissions. You know,
Speaker 1: Mickey does and go into seizures as soon as you
Speaker 1: walk through the Magic Kingdom gates. Um. But when you
Speaker 1: get close enough, Mickey will make a little noise you
Speaker 1: press press, I think one of his hands and then
Speaker 1: he says, uh. The information like he might tell you
Speaker 1: how long the weight is for the Pirates of the
Speaker 1: Caribbean ride, or he might give you a little bit
Speaker 1: of trivia information about one of the buildings you're passing.
Speaker 1: And it's all based upon just radio waves. There's no
Speaker 1: no real Internet involved here. But there's no reason why
Speaker 1: you couldn't have that connected with the Internet where you
Speaker 1: have these transmitters that are not necessarily meant to transmit
Speaker 1: signals across an entire city, but maybe just like a
Speaker 1: general area around the building that they are attached to,
Speaker 1: and that it could give you updated information about stuff.
Speaker 1: Let's say a store sale goes on and you've got
Speaker 1: this app that alerts alerts you when a sale starts,
Speaker 1: and you could even have specific sales happening within oh
Speaker 1: like a two hour range, and it's just if you
Speaker 1: happen to be in the area that you find doubt
Speaker 1: about it. And this is a way of of kind
Speaker 1: of adding more of that sort of engagement thing we've
Speaker 1: talked about in previous episodes, Like I see that as
Speaker 1: being a possibility where we have not just a pervasive Internet,
Speaker 1: but a contextual Internet as well. So it's it's timely.
Speaker 1: A lot of the stuff we see on the Internet
Speaker 1: is designed to be what we call evergreen. We call
Speaker 1: it that here at how stuff works all the time,
Speaker 1: and evergreen piece of content is something that should be
Speaker 1: relevant today, and it should be relevant five years from now,
Speaker 1: It should be relevant ten years from now. You should
Speaker 1: be always be able to go back to that piece
Speaker 1: of content and it means exactly what needs to mean. Uh.
Speaker 1: And then there's other content that we create that is
Speaker 1: very timely that you know, after after a few months,
Speaker 1: it may not have the impact that it once had,
Speaker 1: or it might need to be updated on a near
Speaker 1: constant basis, like most of this stuff that is in
Speaker 1: the tech channels. Because here's the funny thing about technology,
Speaker 1: it keeps on changing. Now I think, I think location
Speaker 1: based services to um. You know, there there are millions
Speaker 1: of people with smartphones, but it's really only scratching the
Speaker 1: surface of the population in general. I think now that
Speaker 1: they're starting to become more affordable, UM, there's real competition
Speaker 1: in the smartphone market for consumers. UM, and the cost
Speaker 1: of providing data goes down. UM. You know, I think
Speaker 1: it will be more compelling for people to sign onto
Speaker 1: location based services and uh, you know, get offers as
Speaker 1: they're walking by and subscribe to that too. I don't
Speaker 1: know so much about augmented reality UM personally, because I mean,
Speaker 1: I think it will become more popular, but I still
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to become dominant, simply because it
Speaker 1: requires you to look around with your phone and you
Speaker 1: could trip and fall. Yeah, I mean, if if we
Speaker 1: if we ever do get to a point where you
Speaker 1: can have those glasses that do the do the transparent
Speaker 1: display where you can see the display of information on
Speaker 1: your glasses like it heads up to play. Yeah, essentially
Speaker 1: a heads up display for you know, just the exactly
Speaker 1: just looking around and seeing what that their restaurants raty
Speaker 1: today is. Um. You know, it's uh, we've been promised
Speaker 1: that for a while. It's almost because it's almost starting
Speaker 1: to enter the realm of jet packs and flying cars. Uh.
Speaker 1: I know, I know that there are jet packs and
Speaker 1: flying cars, but they're not predominant, right, They're not everywhere,
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm talking about. Um. Also, I just
Speaker 1: think that again, you know, unless it's something that could
Speaker 1: be built into your existing eyewear, I just don't see
Speaker 1: it being that compelling, just because it means more people
Speaker 1: are like, well, great, now there's another thing I gotta
Speaker 1: buy and wear. You know. I wish I could have
Speaker 1: a show of hands, but I can't, and and you
Speaker 1: don't need to email. But I was just thinking how
Speaker 1: many people heard you say eyewear and thought, I, well,
Speaker 1: you know, if Apple does come out with with glasses.
Speaker 1: They will call it eyewear and they should pay me. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's trademarked, Jonathan Strickland, not really trademarked. Yeah, so I
Speaker 1: think I think we might actually see other Internet capable
Speaker 1: devices really starting to to to play a part. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've at Cees of eleven, there were a lot of
Speaker 1: of appliances that were Internet capable. The Internet of Things. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so this this would be the case of having other
Speaker 1: things on the Internet besides computers, mobile devices and that
Speaker 1: kind of thing. It would be more like things like
Speaker 1: refrigerators and um washers and dryers and a lot of
Speaker 1: this is you know, goes into home automation. Some of
Speaker 1: it is is just information management. Like let's say you
Speaker 1: want to manage the list of things that are in
Speaker 1: your refrigerator. Is that when you go shopping, you know,
Speaker 1: you know what you need to pick up that sort
Speaker 1: of stuff. Uh. I think within five years we'll probably
Speaker 1: see a lot more of that. Um. I don't know
Speaker 1: that it will again be the dominant kind of appliance
Speaker 1: on the market. I think that will still be sort
Speaker 1: of the I think it will still be somewhat of
Speaker 1: a niche market, maybe maybe a larger niche than it
Speaker 1: is right now. But I don't think of it. I
Speaker 1: don't think that will be I don't think you would
Speaker 1: walk into an appliance store and and ninety percent of
Speaker 1: the stuff you see would be Internet capable. Well, here's
Speaker 1: here's a thought on that. They've been predicting this for years.
Speaker 1: We were all going to have radio frequency identification tags
Speaker 1: r f i D tags inside all of our products,
Speaker 1: so you can have all your stuff in the fridge,
Speaker 1: and the fridge is able to identify what's in there
Speaker 1: and when you bought it and when you bought it,
Speaker 1: and there would be a screen up on the on
Speaker 1: the front of the fridge that says, hey, you know what,
Speaker 1: you could make this for dinner because you have all
Speaker 1: the ingredients you need to make this, or you could
Speaker 1: make that and it will give you recipes and things,
Speaker 1: which is a really neat idea. But they've been again
Speaker 1: predicting this for years. It might also say it hasn't
Speaker 1: happened yet. I also say the peaches are restless. You
Speaker 1: need to throw them out. The peaches restless. One of
Speaker 1: them growled at me. Yeah, that's when potato salad goes bade.
Speaker 1: The technology to do. This isn't hasn't been out of
Speaker 1: the realm of possibility for for several years. I mean,
Speaker 1: this is doable, but we're not doing it. It's yeah,
Speaker 1: it's adopt It's an adoption thing. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: in some cases, you've got companies that are trying to
Speaker 1: create products for which there is no demand, and then
Speaker 1: they're trying to generate the demand for that product, and
Speaker 1: sometimes that works. Like you know, you could argue that
Speaker 1: Steve Jobs does that all the time. Well he You
Speaker 1: know that the iPad is a clear example of this,
Speaker 1: and I still, um, when it first came out, I
Speaker 1: saw a lot of criticism that it was a product
Speaker 1: that that no one needed and which is still technically true.
Speaker 1: Nobody needs a tablet. Well, okay, a few people need
Speaker 1: a tablet. Let's say that. Um, there are there are
Speaker 1: some some roles that really could use a small computing
Speaker 1: device like that. So but for a lot of people,
Speaker 1: it's a it's something they want. And uh, you know
Speaker 1: now that it's been a year later, as of the
Speaker 1: time we've recorded this, almost a year and a half
Speaker 1: after the iPads released, there are lots of different kinds
Speaker 1: of tablets in the market. The tablet market is taking
Speaker 1: off sort of like the netbook market did um a
Speaker 1: few years ago, and I saw criticism, Uh probably about
Speaker 1: two or three months before we recorded this, we were saying, well,
Speaker 1: you know, I still don't think there's any reason why
Speaker 1: anyone needs a tablet. Most of the people I see
Speaker 1: who say they they have really integrated tablet into their
Speaker 1: lifestyle bought one and then found a use for it.
Speaker 1: But I would argue that's the way it was with
Speaker 1: personal computers back in the day. And I think I
Speaker 1: don't think tablets are going away simply because I think
Speaker 1: people who buy them, you know, now that there is
Speaker 1: a market for it, people are going to start creating
Speaker 1: more useful software for it. And I think people will
Speaker 1: start using their tablets to do more creative work than
Speaker 1: they used to be able to do, simply because there
Speaker 1: wasn't software for it on the on the initial release
Speaker 1: of these devices, and there will be now that now
Speaker 1: that it's coming out, there already is quite a bit
Speaker 1: of creative software, and I think they're just going to
Speaker 1: be more. It's just gonna be another tier of products
Speaker 1: in between smartphones and computers. I think that there's also
Speaker 1: the potential that we could see even more products introduced
Speaker 1: into that space that don't fit the tablet model or
Speaker 1: the smartphone model. I mean, it's hard to say, because
Speaker 1: it's five years from now. There's a lot of smart
Speaker 1: people working on these things, and who knows who could
Speaker 1: come up with the next big thing. I mean I
Speaker 1: mentioned smart watches which could fit into that category. But
Speaker 1: for example, here's here's just something just out of the blue.
Speaker 1: Let's say that someone decides to create a device that
Speaker 1: is similar to a smartphone but is essentially a kind
Speaker 1: of the the the step between smartphone and a MP
Speaker 1: three players, So not that not an iPod touch, which
Speaker 1: you could argue is kind of in that realm too,
Speaker 1: but more about it's more focused just on the music.
Speaker 1: So in other words, you create a device that is
Speaker 1: um specifically designed to help you tap into the streaming
Speaker 1: music services that are out there. So you know there's
Speaker 1: smartphones that can do this as well. So you could argue, well,
Speaker 1: maybe there's not a market for this, but then you
Speaker 1: could say, well, you might want to have one of
Speaker 1: these devices that doesn't run quite as many applications, is
Speaker 1: not as process or intensive, doesn't run down the battery
Speaker 1: as quickly, doesn't doesn't tax your smartphones battery at all.
Speaker 1: That would let you tap into these massive cloud storage services,
Speaker 1: things like Google Music or Amazon or iTunes, the icloudum
Speaker 1: or Spotify, any of these sort of services where you
Speaker 1: could stream or or otherwise consume the music on this
Speaker 1: device without it affecting your other devices, because I mean,
Speaker 1: I have a smartphone that's capable of doing these sort
Speaker 1: of things, but I rarely use those capabilities because it
Speaker 1: runs down the battery and I don't want, you know,
Speaker 1: I want to have my phone available in case I
Speaker 1: want to for some reason make a phone call. So
Speaker 1: I could see that sort of thing becoming thing where
Speaker 1: the next MP three player isn't necessarily focused on how
Speaker 1: many songs it can store, but rather it's access to
Speaker 1: various streaming services or or cloud storage services. Uh, that's
Speaker 1: a possibility. Um. So we've talked about mobility, We've talked
Speaker 1: about a lot more of uh appliances that would be
Speaker 1: connected to the Internet. I mean, you can you're starting
Speaker 1: to see that already with cars as well, where you
Speaker 1: have cars that don't necessarily connect directly to the Internet,
Speaker 1: but when you park them in your garage, they can
Speaker 1: sync up via Bluetooth or some other method to your
Speaker 1: home network, and you can transfer data back and forth
Speaker 1: across um, usually music, but you can do other things
Speaker 1: as well well. You can also have equipment put in
Speaker 1: your car to make a hot spot too. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: we're probably going to see a lot more of that
Speaker 1: as well. You know, again, the ubiquitous access. Uh So
Speaker 1: that's that's kind of like the shiny happy version of
Speaker 1: what the Internet could be like in five years and
Speaker 1: how we would access the Internet. I don't see it
Speaker 1: as necessarily being a total revolution from the way we're
Speaker 1: doing it now, but probably um a much more pervasive
Speaker 1: way of what we do now. Let's talk about some
Speaker 1: possible dark side elements to what the Internet could be
Speaker 1: like in five years. So dark side number one, and
Speaker 1: this is a big one, is that we could see
Speaker 1: Internet service providers I sps start to um limit the
Speaker 1: kinds of of services and content you have access to.
Speaker 1: In other words, let's say that this is essentially the
Speaker 1: scenario where net neutrality is no longer even a concept.
Speaker 1: It's gone. In this case, you have I s p
Speaker 1: s that are able to strike up partnerships, let's say,
Speaker 1: with various content providers and service providers in theory, not
Speaker 1: that I would ever expect this to happen, but in theory,
Speaker 1: lets you could have a particular Internet service provider partner
Speaker 1: with say Facebook, and then anyone who is a customer
Speaker 1: of that I s P has access to Facebook. Anyone
Speaker 1: who is not a customer with that I s P doesn't, Right,
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's an extreme example that I don't
Speaker 1: think could ever happen because Facebook, of course is so huge,
Speaker 1: it's got, you know, way more subscribers than you would
Speaker 1: ever see be tied to a specific provider. But I
Speaker 1: could easily see that from for emerging services and content.
Speaker 1: So or let's say that the Internet service providers that
Speaker 1: are also cable companies limited so that you can only
Speaker 1: access their content they create through their I s P.
Speaker 1: So if you are on I s P B and
Speaker 1: you want to see the content that I s P
Speaker 1: A creates through its cable company part of its corporation,
Speaker 1: you're on the lock. At least you can't see it online. Um,
Speaker 1: we're starting to see some of that emerge right now. Now.
Speaker 1: Whether or not that continues is another question, but it
Speaker 1: could very well be that within five years your experience
Speaker 1: on the Internet is completely dictated by the Internet service
Speaker 1: provider you belong to, or cell phone carrier in that case,
Speaker 1: because it may be that you have one kind of
Speaker 1: Internet when you get home because you are you're a
Speaker 1: customer of one I s P, and you have a
Speaker 1: different kind of Internet when you access it on your
Speaker 1: phone because you belong you know, you've got a contract
Speaker 1: with a specific cell phone carrier. And that would be
Speaker 1: crazy really because you could think like, oh, this video
Speaker 1: is great, but I'll watch it when I get home,
Speaker 1: and then you realize, oh, I can't access it at
Speaker 1: home because my I s P doesn't have a deal
Speaker 1: with that particular content provider. Yeah, I think it's more
Speaker 1: likely that you'll see throttling. Um, Like, if you have
Speaker 1: if you want to use a particular streaming radio radio
Speaker 1: service and you are on a cable company that doesn't
Speaker 1: have a deal with that provider, and perhaps they have
Speaker 1: a deal with the DSL provider in your area, well
Speaker 1: that means that they're going to give the you know,
Speaker 1: per the agreement, they're going to give priority to their
Speaker 1: own customers, and then you may experience hiccupping or delays
Speaker 1: or or problems with the service. You might see that
Speaker 1: that sign saying Netflix is adjusting your buffering rate because
Speaker 1: your Internet connection is slower. Yes, UM, and that's another
Speaker 1: that's another issue too. I think that is possible to
Speaker 1: see UM talking about depending on your I s P
Speaker 1: or your your provider UM for cell phone services, Uh
Speaker 1: so many of them now for both are instituting data caps.
Speaker 1: So I think it is very possible that in the future. UM.
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's funny because the services are all
Speaker 1: working toward unlimited models. Like if you subscribe to Netflix
Speaker 1: streaming umunt bit, you have unlimited you can watch as
Speaker 1: many movies as you can pack in during each month.
Speaker 1: And that goes for a lot of the other services
Speaker 1: to UM. You know, you can you can stream unlimited
Speaker 1: music from a lot of places UM. And there's of
Speaker 1: course plenty of other ways to use lots of bandwidth. UM.
Speaker 1: So you know they're they're opening those services up to
Speaker 1: and unlimited all you can eat model for you know,
Speaker 1: a set price, and people who really use them, say
Speaker 1: families you know, who have multiple people watching multiple shows
Speaker 1: in multiple rooms. You know, that's a great way to
Speaker 1: use a ton of bandwidth. You know, of course they're
Speaker 1: they're arguments that say, it's really just the people who
Speaker 1: are downloading lots of stuff illegally. Um, but there's there's
Speaker 1: so many legitimate ways to use a lot of bandwidth. Now, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean before before there were these these venues where
Speaker 1: you could get to this content in a legal way.
Speaker 1: Maybe you could make the argument that the people who
Speaker 1: are eating up all the bandwidth, we're pirate. But I
Speaker 1: don't think that's the case today. Well a lot of
Speaker 1: them say right now, the people who are using the
Speaker 1: bandwidth that gets them into trouble are they're they're a
Speaker 1: small minority of people, like only I'm making up a
Speaker 1: number because I haven't seen it in a while, But
Speaker 1: the last time I looked it was they were saying
Speaker 1: something like three to five of their customers. They're saying,
Speaker 1: oh no, no, no no, no, these bandwidth caps don't affect
Speaker 1: the majority of our customers. But the thing is, the
Speaker 1: services themselves are encouraging us to use as much data
Speaker 1: as we can take, and the broad the providers are
Speaker 1: all starting to cap their services. Not all of them,
Speaker 1: but a lot of them are. And uh, in some
Speaker 1: cases they're not making it clear to subscribers exactly how
Speaker 1: much data they're using and how much it's going to
Speaker 1: put them in trouble. So I think within the next
Speaker 1: five years you're going to start to see that clash,
Speaker 1: especially because broadband penetration is still somewhat limited in the
Speaker 1: United States. Speeds are somewhat slower here and then in
Speaker 1: other places, and um, you know, I think is these
Speaker 1: things ratchet up and people are encouraging us to use
Speaker 1: more data. This is going to come into conflict, and
Speaker 1: the providers are going to hear from their customers how
Speaker 1: unhappy they are with the service because you know, hey,
Speaker 1: you say I can use you know, all this data
Speaker 1: and it's and it's supposed to be such a fast network,
Speaker 1: and when I actually try to use it, I can't. You.
Speaker 1: It'll also be interesting to see if I s p s,
Speaker 1: if they do create this this sort of compartmentalized uh Internet,
Speaker 1: and in which case, really we can't even call it
Speaker 1: the Internet anymore, because the Internet is supposed to be
Speaker 1: the global network of networks. And if we're talking about
Speaker 1: I sp s each creating their own, then they all
Speaker 1: just become networks. Yeah, it might become Internet with a
Speaker 1: lower case I, as opposed to Internet, Internet with the
Speaker 1: upper case I. So instead of being a joke, we
Speaker 1: will we will really be talking about the internets. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it really will be the internets. Which one do you have? UM?
Speaker 1: There's also the possibility that some of these I sp
Speaker 1: s and they a lot of these companies have tried
Speaker 1: this already, will try to make their own services that
Speaker 1: that mimic or replace the services from other UH providers
Speaker 1: out there, not just I s p s, but other
Speaker 1: companies as well. So let's say that you know, I
Speaker 1: s p A decides to come up with its own
Speaker 1: version of Twitter and UH and then and then doesn't
Speaker 1: allow you to access Twitter on its on its services
Speaker 1: UM and instead encourages you to use this other one.
Speaker 1: And that's another way that this stuff can get further fragmented.
Speaker 1: I don't think it would ever happen, but it's possible. UM.
Speaker 1: Another thing we might see are we've seen already. I'm
Speaker 1: curious to find out if within five years, if it's
Speaker 1: proven to be a successful campaign or not. Are paywalls.
Speaker 1: And of course the paywall is where you UH you
Speaker 1: can't have access to a particular sites content until after
Speaker 1: you pay a subscription fee. Right, so if you want
Speaker 1: to read as an example, a current example the New
Speaker 1: York Times. There are a certain amount of there's a
Speaker 1: certain number of articles that you can read for free
Speaker 1: per month, per month, and then after that you are
Speaker 1: asked to go ahead and subscribe. The Wall Street Journal
Speaker 1: on the other hand, Yeah, I mean there there's certain
Speaker 1: content that you can get depending on how you're you're
Speaker 1: doing it. But um, for the most part, you have
Speaker 1: to pay if you're if you're going to do that
Speaker 1: now some I think it will be more common, um
Speaker 1: paywall or no, I mean I think or whether they
Speaker 1: succeed in in in general, I would say, I think
Speaker 1: you're going to see a lot of um, maybe hybrid subscriptions,
Speaker 1: like for example, Wired magazine. Right now, if you are
Speaker 1: a print subscriber, I've been a print subscriber for many years. Um,
Speaker 1: you can also uh, and this is a fairly recent
Speaker 1: development as of the time of recording this, you can
Speaker 1: also if you have an iPad, as I do, you
Speaker 1: can download the issues you have been subscribing to. So
Speaker 1: now I get all the the digital issues free because
Speaker 1: I am a print subscriber, and I think you're like
Speaker 1: getting them free. They're just included in your subscription, right well,
Speaker 1: I'm getting them a no extra cost because at one
Speaker 1: point Wired, the online app required you to pay regardless
Speaker 1: of whether or not you were a print subscriber. So
Speaker 1: I'm getting it as a benefit of my subscription. I
Speaker 1: get both versions of of that, and I think that's
Speaker 1: probably going to become more common because I think the
Speaker 1: tablet was at one point considered the uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the saving grace for magazines and newspapers, and I think
Speaker 1: people do enjoy reading some of that content in that format. However,
Speaker 1: people who are I've seen it pretty much with regard
Speaker 1: to just about every magazine that has a subscription available. Hey,
Speaker 1: why are you charging me for this digital version? I'm
Speaker 1: already a subscriber to the print version. Can't I have both?
Speaker 1: You know, I think there are a lot of people
Speaker 1: be willing to say, yeah, okay, I'll give you an
Speaker 1: extra two bucks or five bucks, give giving me both
Speaker 1: because I like both. Um and you know, so I think,
Speaker 1: you know, I think what will be interesting to see
Speaker 1: two is within the next five years if there's a
Speaker 1: related model that I think it'll be interesting to see
Speaker 1: if it survives or not, which is the model that
Speaker 1: companies like HBO is where you know, you can get
Speaker 1: HBO content online, but only if you are a customer
Speaker 1: of a cable company and you have HBO as part
Speaker 1: of your service. CNN does that too, now, yeah, does it? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I think interesting, have to look that up. Just surprised
Speaker 1: me because I mean, it's been a while since I've
Speaker 1: been to that site. But really, the last time I
Speaker 1: went to a CNN dot com they had updated there.
Speaker 1: And this is again very recent, I think within the
Speaker 1: last two or three weeks before we recorded this. If
Speaker 1: you want to access the video, UM you sign in
Speaker 1: as a you know, to your your provider and they
Speaker 1: will say, okay, now now you have access to the
Speaker 1: video online because you're already a subscriber, right. So it'll
Speaker 1: be interesting interesting to see if that works or if
Speaker 1: HBO decides to open it up a little bit where
Speaker 1: I mean, I would imagine it will always be a
Speaker 1: subscription service. It's never gonna be free necessarily, but that
Speaker 1: you will not you won't have to be a cable
Speaker 1: company customer in order to UM to get access to
Speaker 1: that that that content. I know there are a lot
Speaker 1: of people who have cut the cord who would love
Speaker 1: to have access to things like HBO original programming. I mean,
Speaker 1: they're all screaming for Game of Thrones, but they can't
Speaker 1: watch it because they don't have a subscription. You know,
Speaker 1: they don't belo they don't have a cable company. Um,
Speaker 1: they're not. They don't have a cable TV subscription, they
Speaker 1: don't have HBO. So therefore they cannot access that material
Speaker 1: even if they wanted, you know, had some online method. Uh,
Speaker 1: it's unavailable to them because they have to be a
Speaker 1: pre existing customer before they can also get it online. Uh.
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting interesting to see if that lives for
Speaker 1: five years or if that, if that model goes away. UM,
Speaker 1: I can imagine a lot of cable companies trying very
Speaker 1: very hard to keep that model going because it's an
Speaker 1: incentive for customers to remain with cable companies. UM. If that,
Speaker 1: if that were gone, if you could subscribe to say
Speaker 1: Game of Thrones, and you know, you pay a certain
Speaker 1: subscription fee and that was it. UM, I think that
Speaker 1: you'd see even more people cutting the cord, which would
Speaker 1: upset cable companies quite a bit. Yeah, I verified that
Speaker 1: as of mid July. Like, if you want to use
Speaker 1: cn CNN video on your iOS device, UM, that you
Speaker 1: have to basically prove that you're a subscriber to certain
Speaker 1: pay TV providers and that's you know, there are a
Speaker 1: certain list of them that they're some of the big
Speaker 1: ease um. But yeah, I think that model would be
Speaker 1: more um palatable to people to say, you know, hey, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm already paying you something, you know, so that that's
Speaker 1: a little bit more tolerable that it's behind a wall.
Speaker 1: But it's still still an issue for a lot of people.
Speaker 1: And there's still a lot of people who don't have uh,
Speaker 1: you know, access to the service at home or can't
Speaker 1: get it and you know, still have to come in somehow.
Speaker 1: So yeah, so, I mean it'll be interesting to see,
Speaker 1: I think. Um, I'm hoping that the shiny, happy version
Speaker 1: of the Internet will be the one that we have.
Speaker 1: It'll probably be somewhere in between, like this this crazy
Speaker 1: pervasive internet where we everything's at our fingertips and this
Speaker 1: walled off internet where everything is behind a gate and
Speaker 1: we have to pay to get in. I'm sure it'll
Speaker 1: be some combination of the two. It's not gonna be
Speaker 1: one or the other. Yeah, yeah, Well, it's the Internet
Speaker 1: is an evolving thing, you know, It's it's earliest incarnations
Speaker 1: were something the public were completely unaware of. I think
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people still, my relatives are
Speaker 1: still completely unaware of it. But yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: think a lot of people, yeah who think I keep
Speaker 1: hearing about are still unaware that there was life before Yahoo.
Speaker 1: You know the Internet? Okay, yeah, that's trademark. Yeah whatever.
Speaker 1: Um so anyhow, it's free advertising until they see us
Speaker 1: for free advertising. Come on, alright, fine Google, Google, All Right,
Speaker 1: there we go. Now we're now, We're clear. I totally
Speaker 1: feel better now. Al right, guys, how about that? Right?
Speaker 1: Like I would say, we were on the mark. We
Speaker 1: talked about broadband caps, we talked about mobile browsing, all
Speaker 1: sorts of stuff. Now, there were some things that we
Speaker 1: did not anticipate. We didn't talk about Google fiber, right,
Speaker 1: we didn't necessarily get really deeply into net neutrality. We
Speaker 1: touched on it. So what I think we have to
Speaker 1: do now is another episode. Right, we have to look
Speaker 1: another five years in the future. You guys need to
Speaker 1: know what the Internet is gonna be like in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty one. Liberal arts, major guys, give me a break.
Speaker 1: So I am going to have a spell shual guest
Speaker 1: join me for our next episode of tech Stuff. That
Speaker 1: special guest is I, as actor of c net. Uh.
Speaker 1: Chris is off doing his own thing, so I didn't
Speaker 1: club him over the head like I did for episode
Speaker 1: I think six hundred. I instead getting I asked, come in.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about what we think the internet will
Speaker 1: be like in five more years. And you already have
Speaker 1: heard our track record. You know that we're pretty darn accurate,
Speaker 1: so I'm just saying, look forward to keeping score again
Speaker 1: in five more years. Until then, if you guys have
Speaker 1: any suggestions for future episodes of tech Stuff, let me
Speaker 1: know about them. Send me an email. The address is
Speaker 1: tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com, or you
Speaker 1: can drop me a line on Facebook or Twitter to
Speaker 1: handle it. Both of those places is text stuff hs W.
Speaker 1: You guys, take it easy and I'll talk to you
Speaker 1: again really soon for more on this and pathans of
Speaker 1: others topics. Because it has staff works at m W