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Speaker 1: Get in text technology with tech Stuff from dot com.

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Speaker 1: Hey there, this is Jonathan Strickland and you are listening

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Speaker 1: to tech Stuff and guys, I've got a treat for

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Speaker 1: you today. So a couple of weeks ago, a listener

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Speaker 1: alerted me to the fact that five years ago, on

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Speaker 1: I think it was August two thousand and eleven, we

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Speaker 1: published an episode titled what will the Internet be Like

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Speaker 1: in five years? My co host at the time, Chris Palette,

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Speaker 1: and I sat down and we put on our prognosticator

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Speaker 1: hats and we started making wild guesses and what the

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Speaker 1: Internet will be like. And you'll never believe how close

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Speaker 1: we got. Actually, you will believe it because we're gonna

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Speaker 1: rerun that episode. But stay tuned because at the end

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Speaker 1: I got a little bit more to say. So enjoy

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Speaker 1: this classic episode and keep score. I think you'll be surprised. So, um,

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Speaker 1: Internet five years, how are we going to interact with it?

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Speaker 1: Lets go? Uh that's a good question, now, um it

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Speaker 1: would It would be easy for me to say that

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Speaker 1: that tablets are going to be there simply because they're

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Speaker 1: so hot right now. I definitely think mobile is is

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Speaker 1: primarily the way people are going now. Um, don't get

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Speaker 1: the impression that, um, I've given up on uh computers,

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Speaker 1: specifically desktop computers, because I still enjoy not having to

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Speaker 1: haul around a lot of technology with me and and

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Speaker 1: having just a small device. Um, but I enjoy having

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Speaker 1: the the real estate of a nice giant screen now. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know. But I think mobile is is the way

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Speaker 1: I think people want to be able to get stuff

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Speaker 1: anywhere and everywhere. So people are going to be designing content,

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Speaker 1: um to fit multiple needs. Yeah, we're already seeing a

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Speaker 1: lot of that today, where you see a lot of

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Speaker 1: websites that have a mobile version and a full version.

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Speaker 1: And then we were seeing more and more smartphones that

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Speaker 1: just bypass the mobile version go straight to the full

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Speaker 1: version because they are capable of displaying an entire web

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Speaker 1: page upon their you know, their screens, and of course

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Speaker 1: tablets the same sort of thing. Uh. I agree. I

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Speaker 1: think that the Internet in five years will be much

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Speaker 1: more pervasive than the sense that mostly from the stuff

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Speaker 1: that we tend to carry with us, but that will

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Speaker 1: be able to go from place to place and be

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Speaker 1: able to tag it tap into the Internet pretty much

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Speaker 1: anywhere we go. I mean, that's almost the case now

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Speaker 1: as it is but it should be even more so

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Speaker 1: in the future. That will get to a point where

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Speaker 1: it will be really unusual when you're in a space

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Speaker 1: where you cannot access the Internet at least any place

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Speaker 1: when you're on the land, and maybe when you're like

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Speaker 1: out at sea or something that might still be kind

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Speaker 1: of unusual unless you haven't have some sort of satellite modem.

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Speaker 1: But um, otherwise, I think, yeah, you pretty much have

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Speaker 1: the Internet at your fingertips um from a variety of devices.

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Speaker 1: And we're talking about five years from now. So if

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Speaker 1: you think about it, the iPhone came out in two

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Speaker 1: thousand seven, so as they're recording of this podcast, that

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Speaker 1: was four years ago, and already I think you could

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Speaker 1: argue that the iPhone has had a huge impact on

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Speaker 1: at least the way we consume the Internet and and

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Speaker 1: also how developers create applications for the Internet. Some of

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Speaker 1: the a lot of the things that are on the

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Speaker 1: iPhone and on Android and on other smartphone operating systems

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Speaker 1: as well. Um, they aren't necessarily a web browser, but

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Speaker 1: they do tie into the Internet in some way, right

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Speaker 1: Like Like for example, with Google, I have Google Navigator

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Speaker 1: and that uses Google Maps and it uses GPS in

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Speaker 1: order to help me navigate through to a destination. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's something that we wouldn't have really thought about,

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Speaker 1: you know, ten years ago, then we started getting GPS

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Speaker 1: units to really hit the market, and now smartphones are

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Speaker 1: kind of displacing those. So five years from now, I

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Speaker 1: imagine that um smartphones will be pretty much the the

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Speaker 1: the most common kind of mobile device that people will

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Speaker 1: be carrying around with them. Capable of that, we may

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Speaker 1: finally start seeing some things, like some smart watches that

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Speaker 1: are actually worth purchasing. I mean, there's been smart watches

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Speaker 1: in the past that have been kind of interesting but

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Speaker 1: just haven't quite worked. And I think part of that is,

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Speaker 1: you know, there are a lot of issues you gotta

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Speaker 1: work around, like how how do you miniaturize the components

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Speaker 1: to that size where it's still a compelling product right right,

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Speaker 1: And and I think that's one of those things too,

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Speaker 1: where years ago people were talking about how everything was

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Speaker 1: going miniaturized, and now that we have smartphones, we won't

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Speaker 1: need laptops. And I know I'm not the only person

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Speaker 1: who likes a nice big screen when you're actually doing work,

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Speaker 1: not to mention a nice big keyboard. Yes, and and

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Speaker 1: the truth of the matter is I think that, um,

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Speaker 1: there's a certain practical point. It's not that we can't

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Speaker 1: make a smart watch that would do those kinds of things.

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Speaker 1: I think the practical reality is that at a certain

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Speaker 1: point it's kind of difficult to use, especially with fat

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Speaker 1: fingers like mine. Uh, something that has a touch screen

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Speaker 1: that's that small. Yeah, and voice input still isn't quite

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Speaker 1: there yet. It's close. Google has done a really good

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Speaker 1: job with voice input. I mean, I'm very impressed with

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Speaker 1: what they've done so far, and I'm sure that five

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Speaker 1: years from now it'll probably be really phenomenal where uh,

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Speaker 1: navigating by voice will be quite easy. It's it's hard

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Speaker 1: for us to make that leap right now because it's

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Speaker 1: so it seems so foreign to to think about talking

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Speaker 1: to a computer, especially if you're talking about any sort

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Speaker 1: of you're in a public place, or you're say in

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Speaker 1: an office at work or whatever, or you have an

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Speaker 1: accent that may be unreadable too, or you want to

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Speaker 1: look up something that is really um personal, yeah, like

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Speaker 1: some sort of medical issue, you know, that sort of stuff.

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Speaker 1: You don't want to be talking out loud to your machine.

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Speaker 1: So clearly, the physical input is never going to completely

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Speaker 1: go away unless we finally get to a point where

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Speaker 1: we can just telepathically interact with our devices, which is

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Speaker 1: not going to happen in five years. There's one of

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Speaker 1: my solid predictions there. We are not going to have

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Speaker 1: a point where we have mind controlled devices in five years. UM.

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Speaker 1: So it's more pervasive, We've got more access. I actually

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Speaker 1: see some more overlapping technologies coming in, possibly possibly some

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Speaker 1: new technologies. But really there's the stuff that I'm imagining

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Speaker 1: is we're totally capable of doing right now, and that

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Speaker 1: is having UM context specific Internet uh well, uh, attractions

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Speaker 1: or or situations or circumstances. What I mean by that

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Speaker 1: is that you could create an application, let's say, that

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Speaker 1: reacts to UM signal spent sent on a specific wavelength,

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Speaker 1: and then you create transmitters that transmit things on that wavelength,

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Speaker 1: so that when you come into the proximity of that transmitter,

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Speaker 1: then your device begins to interact with it in whatever

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Speaker 1: way you had designed. And and here's an easy example

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Speaker 1: of this, because these things exist already. Uh. An example

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Speaker 1: of this is pal Mickey. Have you heard about pal

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Speaker 1: Mickey at Disney World. I've heard about it, but I

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Speaker 1: don't know a lot about it. Okay, So pal Mickey

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Speaker 1: is this idea that Disney came up with a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago where they have the Mickey Mouse doll

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Speaker 1: and inside there is a receiver and the receiver picks

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Speaker 1: up radio signals as you get close enough, you know,

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Speaker 1: when you get within range, the receiver picks up the

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Speaker 1: signal and makes pal Mickey tell you something. And let's

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Speaker 1: say that you're at one of the Disney parks and

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Speaker 1: you're walking around. Well, they make the transmitters, um, they

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Speaker 1: only give them enough power to transmit within a certain range.

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Speaker 1: So that way you're not getting all these transmissions. You know,

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Speaker 1: Mickey does and go into seizures as soon as you

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Speaker 1: walk through the Magic Kingdom gates. Um. But when you

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Speaker 1: get close enough, Mickey will make a little noise you

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Speaker 1: press press, I think one of his hands and then

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Speaker 1: he says, uh. The information like he might tell you

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Speaker 1: how long the weight is for the Pirates of the

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Speaker 1: Caribbean ride, or he might give you a little bit

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Speaker 1: of trivia information about one of the buildings you're passing.

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Speaker 1: And it's all based upon just radio waves. There's no

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Speaker 1: no real Internet involved here. But there's no reason why

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Speaker 1: you couldn't have that connected with the Internet where you

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Speaker 1: have these transmitters that are not necessarily meant to transmit

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Speaker 1: signals across an entire city, but maybe just like a

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Speaker 1: general area around the building that they are attached to,

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Speaker 1: and that it could give you updated information about stuff.

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Speaker 1: Let's say a store sale goes on and you've got

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Speaker 1: this app that alerts alerts you when a sale starts,

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Speaker 1: and you could even have specific sales happening within oh

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Speaker 1: like a two hour range, and it's just if you

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Speaker 1: happen to be in the area that you find doubt

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Speaker 1: about it. And this is a way of of kind

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Speaker 1: of adding more of that sort of engagement thing we've

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Speaker 1: talked about in previous episodes, Like I see that as

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Speaker 1: being a possibility where we have not just a pervasive Internet,

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Speaker 1: but a contextual Internet as well. So it's it's timely.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the stuff we see on the Internet

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Speaker 1: is designed to be what we call evergreen. We call

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Speaker 1: it that here at how stuff works all the time,

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Speaker 1: and evergreen piece of content is something that should be

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Speaker 1: relevant today, and it should be relevant five years from now,

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Speaker 1: It should be relevant ten years from now. You should

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Speaker 1: be always be able to go back to that piece

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Speaker 1: of content and it means exactly what needs to mean. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And then there's other content that we create that is

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Speaker 1: very timely that you know, after after a few months,

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Speaker 1: it may not have the impact that it once had,

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Speaker 1: or it might need to be updated on a near

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Speaker 1: constant basis, like most of this stuff that is in

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Speaker 1: the tech channels. Because here's the funny thing about technology,

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Speaker 1: it keeps on changing. Now I think, I think location

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Speaker 1: based services to um. You know, there there are millions

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Speaker 1: of people with smartphones, but it's really only scratching the

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Speaker 1: surface of the population in general. I think now that

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Speaker 1: they're starting to become more affordable, UM, there's real competition

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Speaker 1: in the smartphone market for consumers. UM, and the cost

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Speaker 1: of providing data goes down. UM. You know, I think

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Speaker 1: it will be more compelling for people to sign onto

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Speaker 1: location based services and uh, you know, get offers as

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Speaker 1: they're walking by and subscribe to that too. I don't

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Speaker 1: know so much about augmented reality UM personally, because I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think it will become more popular, but I still

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Speaker 1: don't think it's going to become dominant, simply because it

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Speaker 1: requires you to look around with your phone and you

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Speaker 1: could trip and fall. Yeah, I mean, if if we

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Speaker 1: if we ever do get to a point where you

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Speaker 1: can have those glasses that do the do the transparent

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Speaker 1: display where you can see the display of information on

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Speaker 1: your glasses like it heads up to play. Yeah, essentially

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Speaker 1: a heads up display for you know, just the exactly

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Speaker 1: just looking around and seeing what that their restaurants raty

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Speaker 1: today is. Um. You know, it's uh, we've been promised

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Speaker 1: that for a while. It's almost because it's almost starting

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Speaker 1: to enter the realm of jet packs and flying cars. Uh.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know that there are jet packs and

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Speaker 1: flying cars, but they're not predominant, right, They're not everywhere,

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Speaker 1: So that's what I'm talking about. Um. Also, I just

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Speaker 1: think that again, you know, unless it's something that could

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Speaker 1: be built into your existing eyewear, I just don't see

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Speaker 1: it being that compelling, just because it means more people

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Speaker 1: are like, well, great, now there's another thing I gotta

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Speaker 1: buy and wear. You know. I wish I could have

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Speaker 1: a show of hands, but I can't, and and you

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Speaker 1: don't need to email. But I was just thinking how

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Speaker 1: many people heard you say eyewear and thought, I, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, if Apple does come out with with glasses.

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Speaker 1: They will call it eyewear and they should pay me. Uh,

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Speaker 1: it's trademarked, Jonathan Strickland, not really trademarked. Yeah, so I

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Speaker 1: think I think we might actually see other Internet capable

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Speaker 1: devices really starting to to to play a part. I mean,

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Speaker 1: we've at Cees of eleven, there were a lot of

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Speaker 1: of appliances that were Internet capable. The Internet of Things. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so this this would be the case of having other

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Speaker 1: things on the Internet besides computers, mobile devices and that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. It would be more like things like

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Speaker 1: refrigerators and um washers and dryers and a lot of

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Speaker 1: this is you know, goes into home automation. Some of

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Speaker 1: it is is just information management. Like let's say you

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Speaker 1: want to manage the list of things that are in

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Speaker 1: your refrigerator. Is that when you go shopping, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know what you need to pick up that sort

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Speaker 1: of stuff. Uh. I think within five years we'll probably

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Speaker 1: see a lot more of that. Um. I don't know

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Speaker 1: that it will again be the dominant kind of appliance

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Speaker 1: on the market. I think that will still be sort

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Speaker 1: of the I think it will still be somewhat of

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Speaker 1: a niche market, maybe maybe a larger niche than it

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Speaker 1: is right now. But I don't think of it. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that will be I don't think you would

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Speaker 1: walk into an appliance store and and ninety percent of

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Speaker 1: the stuff you see would be Internet capable. Well, here's

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Speaker 1: here's a thought on that. They've been predicting this for years.

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Speaker 1: We were all going to have radio frequency identification tags

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Speaker 1: r f i D tags inside all of our products,

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Speaker 1: so you can have all your stuff in the fridge,

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Speaker 1: and the fridge is able to identify what's in there

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Speaker 1: and when you bought it and when you bought it,

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Speaker 1: and there would be a screen up on the on

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Speaker 1: the front of the fridge that says, hey, you know what,

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Speaker 1: you could make this for dinner because you have all

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Speaker 1: the ingredients you need to make this, or you could

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Speaker 1: make that and it will give you recipes and things,

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Speaker 1: which is a really neat idea. But they've been again

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Speaker 1: predicting this for years. It might also say it hasn't

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Speaker 1: happened yet. I also say the peaches are restless. You

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Speaker 1: need to throw them out. The peaches restless. One of

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Speaker 1: them growled at me. Yeah, that's when potato salad goes bade.

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Speaker 1: The technology to do. This isn't hasn't been out of

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Speaker 1: the realm of possibility for for several years. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is doable, but we're not doing it. It's yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's adopt It's an adoption thing. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: in some cases, you've got companies that are trying to

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Speaker 1: create products for which there is no demand, and then

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Speaker 1: they're trying to generate the demand for that product, and

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Speaker 1: sometimes that works. Like you know, you could argue that

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Speaker 1: Steve Jobs does that all the time. Well he You

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Speaker 1: know that the iPad is a clear example of this,

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Speaker 1: and I still, um, when it first came out, I

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Speaker 1: saw a lot of criticism that it was a product

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Speaker 1: that that no one needed and which is still technically true.

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Speaker 1: Nobody needs a tablet. Well, okay, a few people need

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Speaker 1: a tablet. Let's say that. Um, there are there are

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Speaker 1: some some roles that really could use a small computing

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Speaker 1: device like that. So but for a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's something they want. And uh, you know

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Speaker 1: now that it's been a year later, as of the

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Speaker 1: time we've recorded this, almost a year and a half

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Speaker 1: after the iPads released, there are lots of different kinds

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Speaker 1: of tablets in the market. The tablet market is taking

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Speaker 1: off sort of like the netbook market did um a

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Speaker 1: few years ago, and I saw criticism, Uh probably about

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Speaker 1: two or three months before we recorded this, we were saying, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, I still don't think there's any reason why

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Speaker 1: anyone needs a tablet. Most of the people I see

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Speaker 1: who say they they have really integrated tablet into their

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Speaker 1: lifestyle bought one and then found a use for it.

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Speaker 1: But I would argue that's the way it was with

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Speaker 1: personal computers back in the day. And I think I

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Speaker 1: don't think tablets are going away simply because I think

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Speaker 1: people who buy them, you know, now that there is

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Speaker 1: a market for it, people are going to start creating

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Speaker 1: more useful software for it. And I think people will

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Speaker 1: start using their tablets to do more creative work than

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Speaker 1: they used to be able to do, simply because there

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Speaker 1: wasn't software for it on the on the initial release

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Speaker 1: of these devices, and there will be now that now

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Speaker 1: that it's coming out, there already is quite a bit

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Speaker 1: of creative software, and I think they're just going to

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Speaker 1: be more. It's just gonna be another tier of products

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Speaker 1: in between smartphones and computers. I think that there's also

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Speaker 1: the potential that we could see even more products introduced

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Speaker 1: into that space that don't fit the tablet model or

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Speaker 1: the smartphone model. I mean, it's hard to say, because

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Speaker 1: it's five years from now. There's a lot of smart

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Speaker 1: people working on these things, and who knows who could

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Speaker 1: come up with the next big thing. I mean I

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Speaker 1: mentioned smart watches which could fit into that category. But

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Speaker 1: for example, here's here's just something just out of the blue.

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Speaker 1: Let's say that someone decides to create a device that

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Speaker 1: is similar to a smartphone but is essentially a kind

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Speaker 1: of the the the step between smartphone and a MP

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Speaker 1: three players, So not that not an iPod touch, which

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Speaker 1: you could argue is kind of in that realm too,

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Speaker 1: but more about it's more focused just on the music.

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Speaker 1: So in other words, you create a device that is

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Speaker 1: um specifically designed to help you tap into the streaming

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Speaker 1: music services that are out there. So you know there's

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Speaker 1: smartphones that can do this as well. So you could argue, well,

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Speaker 1: maybe there's not a market for this, but then you

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Speaker 1: could say, well, you might want to have one of

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Speaker 1: these devices that doesn't run quite as many applications, is

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Speaker 1: not as process or intensive, doesn't run down the battery

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Speaker 1: as quickly, doesn't doesn't tax your smartphones battery at all.

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Speaker 1: That would let you tap into these massive cloud storage services,

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Speaker 1: things like Google Music or Amazon or iTunes, the icloudum

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Speaker 1: or Spotify, any of these sort of services where you

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Speaker 1: could stream or or otherwise consume the music on this

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Speaker 1: device without it affecting your other devices, because I mean,

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Speaker 1: I have a smartphone that's capable of doing these sort

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Speaker 1: of things, but I rarely use those capabilities because it

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Speaker 1: runs down the battery and I don't want, you know,

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Speaker 1: I want to have my phone available in case I

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Speaker 1: want to for some reason make a phone call. So

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Speaker 1: I could see that sort of thing becoming thing where

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Speaker 1: the next MP three player isn't necessarily focused on how

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Speaker 1: many songs it can store, but rather it's access to

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Speaker 1: various streaming services or or cloud storage services. Uh, that's

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Speaker 1: a possibility. Um. So we've talked about mobility, We've talked

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Speaker 1: about a lot more of uh appliances that would be

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Speaker 1: connected to the Internet. I mean, you can you're starting

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Speaker 1: to see that already with cars as well, where you

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Speaker 1: have cars that don't necessarily connect directly to the Internet,

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Speaker 1: but when you park them in your garage, they can

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Speaker 1: sync up via Bluetooth or some other method to your

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Speaker 1: home network, and you can transfer data back and forth

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Speaker 1: across um, usually music, but you can do other things

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Speaker 1: as well well. You can also have equipment put in

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Speaker 1: your car to make a hot spot too. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: we're probably going to see a lot more of that

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Speaker 1: as well. You know, again, the ubiquitous access. Uh So

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Speaker 1: that's that's kind of like the shiny happy version of

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Speaker 1: what the Internet could be like in five years and

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Speaker 1: how we would access the Internet. I don't see it

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Speaker 1: as necessarily being a total revolution from the way we're

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Speaker 1: doing it now, but probably um a much more pervasive

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Speaker 1: way of what we do now. Let's talk about some

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Speaker 1: possible dark side elements to what the Internet could be

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Speaker 1: like in five years. So dark side number one, and

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Speaker 1: this is a big one, is that we could see

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Speaker 1: Internet service providers I sps start to um limit the

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Speaker 1: kinds of of services and content you have access to.

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Speaker 1: In other words, let's say that this is essentially the

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Speaker 1: scenario where net neutrality is no longer even a concept.

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Speaker 1: It's gone. In this case, you have I s p

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Speaker 1: s that are able to strike up partnerships, let's say,

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Speaker 1: with various content providers and service providers in theory, not

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Speaker 1: that I would ever expect this to happen, but in theory,

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Speaker 1: lets you could have a particular Internet service provider partner

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Speaker 1: with say Facebook, and then anyone who is a customer

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Speaker 1: of that I s P has access to Facebook. Anyone

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Speaker 1: who is not a customer with that I s P doesn't, Right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's an extreme example that I don't

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Speaker 1: think could ever happen because Facebook, of course is so huge,

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Speaker 1: it's got, you know, way more subscribers than you would

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Speaker 1: ever see be tied to a specific provider. But I

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Speaker 1: could easily see that from for emerging services and content.

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Speaker 1: So or let's say that the Internet service providers that

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Speaker 1: are also cable companies limited so that you can only

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Speaker 1: access their content they create through their I s P.

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Speaker 1: So if you are on I s P B and

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Speaker 1: you want to see the content that I s P

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Speaker 1: A creates through its cable company part of its corporation,

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Speaker 1: you're on the lock. At least you can't see it online. Um,

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Speaker 1: we're starting to see some of that emerge right now. Now.

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Speaker 1: Whether or not that continues is another question, but it

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Speaker 1: could very well be that within five years your experience

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Speaker 1: on the Internet is completely dictated by the Internet service

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Speaker 1: provider you belong to, or cell phone carrier in that case,

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Speaker 1: because it may be that you have one kind of

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Speaker 1: Internet when you get home because you are you're a

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Speaker 1: customer of one I s P, and you have a

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Speaker 1: different kind of Internet when you access it on your

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Speaker 1: phone because you belong you know, you've got a contract

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Speaker 1: with a specific cell phone carrier. And that would be

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Speaker 1: crazy really because you could think like, oh, this video

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Speaker 1: is great, but I'll watch it when I get home,

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Speaker 1: and then you realize, oh, I can't access it at

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Speaker 1: home because my I s P doesn't have a deal

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Speaker 1: with that particular content provider. Yeah, I think it's more

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Speaker 1: likely that you'll see throttling. Um, Like, if you have

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Speaker 1: if you want to use a particular streaming radio radio

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Speaker 1: service and you are on a cable company that doesn't

401
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Speaker 1: have a deal with that provider, and perhaps they have

402
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 1: a deal with the DSL provider in your area, well

403
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Speaker 1: that means that they're going to give the you know,

404
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Speaker 1: per the agreement, they're going to give priority to their

405
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Speaker 1: own customers, and then you may experience hiccupping or delays

406
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Speaker 1: or or problems with the service. You might see that

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Speaker 1: that sign saying Netflix is adjusting your buffering rate because

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Speaker 1: your Internet connection is slower. Yes, UM, and that's another

409
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Speaker 1: that's another issue too. I think that is possible to

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Speaker 1: see UM talking about depending on your I s P

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Speaker 1: or your your provider UM for cell phone services, Uh

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Speaker 1: so many of them now for both are instituting data caps.

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Speaker 1: So I think it is very possible that in the future. UM.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's it's funny because the services are all

415
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Speaker 1: working toward unlimited models. Like if you subscribe to Netflix

416
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Speaker 1: streaming umunt bit, you have unlimited you can watch as

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Speaker 1: many movies as you can pack in during each month.

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Speaker 1: And that goes for a lot of the other services

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Speaker 1: to UM. You know, you can you can stream unlimited

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Speaker 1: music from a lot of places UM. And there's of

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Speaker 1: course plenty of other ways to use lots of bandwidth. UM.

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Speaker 1: So you know they're they're opening those services up to

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Speaker 1: and unlimited all you can eat model for you know,

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Speaker 1: a set price, and people who really use them, say

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Speaker 1: families you know, who have multiple people watching multiple shows

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Speaker 1: in multiple rooms. You know, that's a great way to

427
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Speaker 1: use a ton of bandwidth. You know, of course they're

428
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Speaker 1: they're arguments that say, it's really just the people who

429
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Speaker 1: are downloading lots of stuff illegally. Um, but there's there's

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Speaker 1: so many legitimate ways to use a lot of bandwidth. Now, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean before before there were these these venues where

432
00:23:52,400 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 1: you could get to this content in a legal way.

433
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: Maybe you could make the argument that the people who

434
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: are eating up all the bandwidth, we're pirate. But I

435
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: don't think that's the case today. Well a lot of

436
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: them say right now, the people who are using the

437
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 1: bandwidth that gets them into trouble are they're they're a

438
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: small minority of people, like only I'm making up a

439
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: number because I haven't seen it in a while, But

440
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 1: the last time I looked it was they were saying

441
00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: something like three to five of their customers. They're saying,

442
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: oh no, no, no no, no, these bandwidth caps don't affect

443
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: the majority of our customers. But the thing is, the

444
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: services themselves are encouraging us to use as much data

445
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:35,400
Speaker 1: as we can take, and the broad the providers are

446
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: all starting to cap their services. Not all of them,

447
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: but a lot of them are. And uh, in some

448
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: cases they're not making it clear to subscribers exactly how

449
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: much data they're using and how much it's going to

450
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: put them in trouble. So I think within the next

451
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: five years you're going to start to see that clash,

452
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: especially because broadband penetration is still somewhat limited in the

453
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 1: United States. Speeds are somewhat slower here and then in

454
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: other places, and um, you know, I think is these

455
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 1: things ratchet up and people are encouraging us to use

456
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: more data. This is going to come into conflict, and

457
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: the providers are going to hear from their customers how

458
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 1: unhappy they are with the service because you know, hey,

459
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: you say I can use you know, all this data

460
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 1: and it's and it's supposed to be such a fast network,

461
00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: and when I actually try to use it, I can't. You.

462
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: It'll also be interesting to see if I s p s,

463
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: if they do create this this sort of compartmentalized uh Internet,

464
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: and in which case, really we can't even call it

465
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: the Internet anymore, because the Internet is supposed to be

466
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 1: the global network of networks. And if we're talking about

467
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,360
Speaker 1: I sp s each creating their own, then they all

468
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:42,320
Speaker 1: just become networks. Yeah, it might become Internet with a

469
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,879
Speaker 1: lower case I, as opposed to Internet, Internet with the

470
00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: upper case I. So instead of being a joke, we

471
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:49,800
Speaker 1: will we will really be talking about the internets. Yeah,

472
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: it really will be the internets. Which one do you have? UM?

473
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: There's also the possibility that some of these I sp

474
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: s and they a lot of these companies have tried

475
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: this already, will try to make their own services that

476
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 1: that mimic or replace the services from other UH providers

477
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,760
Speaker 1: out there, not just I s p s, but other

478
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 1: companies as well. So let's say that you know, I

479
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: s p A decides to come up with its own

480
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 1: version of Twitter and UH and then and then doesn't

481
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 1: allow you to access Twitter on its on its services

482
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,320
Speaker 1: UM and instead encourages you to use this other one.

483
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 1: And that's another way that this stuff can get further fragmented.

484
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: I don't think it would ever happen, but it's possible. UM.

485
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: Another thing we might see are we've seen already. I'm

486
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: curious to find out if within five years, if it's

487
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 1: proven to be a successful campaign or not. Are paywalls.

488
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 1: And of course the paywall is where you UH you

489
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 1: can't have access to a particular sites content until after

490
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: you pay a subscription fee. Right, so if you want

491
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: to read as an example, a current example the New

492
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: York Times. There are a certain amount of there's a

493
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: certain number of articles that you can read for free

494
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: per month, per month, and then after that you are

495
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 1: asked to go ahead and subscribe. The Wall Street Journal

496
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: on the other hand, Yeah, I mean there there's certain

497
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: content that you can get depending on how you're you're

498
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 1: doing it. But um, for the most part, you have

499
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: to pay if you're if you're going to do that

500
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: now some I think it will be more common, um

501
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: paywall or no, I mean I think or whether they

502
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: succeed in in in general, I would say, I think

503
00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: you're going to see a lot of um, maybe hybrid subscriptions,

504
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 1: like for example, Wired magazine. Right now, if you are

505
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: a print subscriber, I've been a print subscriber for many years. Um,

506
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: you can also uh, and this is a fairly recent

507
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,199
Speaker 1: development as of the time of recording this, you can

508
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,719
Speaker 1: also if you have an iPad, as I do, you

509
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: can download the issues you have been subscribing to. So

510
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 1: now I get all the the digital issues free because

511
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: I am a print subscriber, and I think you're like

512
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: getting them free. They're just included in your subscription, right well,

513
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: I'm getting them a no extra cost because at one

514
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: point Wired, the online app required you to pay regardless

515
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: of whether or not you were a print subscriber. So

516
00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 1: I'm getting it as a benefit of my subscription. I

517
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 1: get both versions of of that, and I think that's

518
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: probably going to become more common because I think the

519
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 1: tablet was at one point considered the uh, you know,

520
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:29,520
Speaker 1: the saving grace for magazines and newspapers, and I think

521
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: people do enjoy reading some of that content in that format. However,

522
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: people who are I've seen it pretty much with regard

523
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: to just about every magazine that has a subscription available. Hey,

524
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: why are you charging me for this digital version? I'm

525
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: already a subscriber to the print version. Can't I have both?

526
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: You know, I think there are a lot of people

527
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: be willing to say, yeah, okay, I'll give you an

528
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: extra two bucks or five bucks, give giving me both

529
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 1: because I like both. Um and you know, so I think,

530
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 1: you know, I think what will be interesting to see

531
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 1: two is within the next five years if there's a

532
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: related model that I think it'll be interesting to see

533
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 1: if it survives or not, which is the model that

534
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:17,400
Speaker 1: companies like HBO is where you know, you can get

535
00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: HBO content online, but only if you are a customer

536
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: of a cable company and you have HBO as part

537
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:28,760
Speaker 1: of your service. CNN does that too, now, yeah, does it? Yeah?

538
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 1: I think interesting, have to look that up. Just surprised

539
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,440
Speaker 1: me because I mean, it's been a while since I've

540
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: been to that site. But really, the last time I

541
00:29:38,280 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 1: went to a CNN dot com they had updated there.

542
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 1: And this is again very recent, I think within the

543
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: last two or three weeks before we recorded this. If

544
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: you want to access the video, UM you sign in

545
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: as a you know, to your your provider and they

546
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: will say, okay, now now you have access to the

547
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: video online because you're already a subscriber, right. So it'll

548
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: be interesting interesting to see if that works or if

549
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: HBO decides to open it up a little bit where

550
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I would imagine it will always be a

551
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 1: subscription service. It's never gonna be free necessarily, but that

552
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: you will not you won't have to be a cable

553
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: company customer in order to UM to get access to

554
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 1: that that that content. I know there are a lot

555
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 1: of people who have cut the cord who would love

556
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: to have access to things like HBO original programming. I mean,

557
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 1: they're all screaming for Game of Thrones, but they can't

558
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 1: watch it because they don't have a subscription. You know,

559
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: they don't belo they don't have a cable company. Um,

560
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: they're not. They don't have a cable TV subscription, they

561
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: don't have HBO. So therefore they cannot access that material

562
00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: even if they wanted, you know, had some online method. Uh,

563
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: it's unavailable to them because they have to be a

564
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: pre existing customer before they can also get it online. Uh.

565
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:54,120
Speaker 1: It'll be interesting interesting to see if that lives for

566
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: five years or if that, if that model goes away. UM,

567
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: I can imagine a lot of cable companies trying very

568
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: very hard to keep that model going because it's an

569
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: incentive for customers to remain with cable companies. UM. If that,

570
00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:12,480
Speaker 1: if that were gone, if you could subscribe to say

571
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 1: Game of Thrones, and you know, you pay a certain

572
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: subscription fee and that was it. UM, I think that

573
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: you'd see even more people cutting the cord, which would

574
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: upset cable companies quite a bit. Yeah, I verified that

575
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 1: as of mid July. Like, if you want to use

576
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 1: cn CNN video on your iOS device, UM, that you

577
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: have to basically prove that you're a subscriber to certain

578
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,120
Speaker 1: pay TV providers and that's you know, there are a

579
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 1: certain list of them that they're some of the big

580
00:31:45,440 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 1: ease um. But yeah, I think that model would be

581
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: more um palatable to people to say, you know, hey, yeah,

582
00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 1: I'm already paying you something, you know, so that that's

583
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 1: a little bit more tolerable that it's behind a wall.

584
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,080
Speaker 1: But it's still still an issue for a lot of people.

585
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: And there's still a lot of people who don't have uh,

586
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: you know, access to the service at home or can't

587
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 1: get it and you know, still have to come in somehow.

588
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 1: So yeah, so, I mean it'll be interesting to see,

589
00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: I think. Um, I'm hoping that the shiny, happy version

590
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: of the Internet will be the one that we have.

591
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 1: It'll probably be somewhere in between, like this this crazy

592
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: pervasive internet where we everything's at our fingertips and this

593
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 1: walled off internet where everything is behind a gate and

594
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: we have to pay to get in. I'm sure it'll

595
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: be some combination of the two. It's not gonna be

596
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: one or the other. Yeah, yeah, Well, it's the Internet

597
00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: is an evolving thing, you know, It's it's earliest incarnations

598
00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: were something the public were completely unaware of. I think

599
00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people still, my relatives are

600
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: still completely unaware of it. But yeah, I mean I

601
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 1: think a lot of people, yeah who think I keep

602
00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: hearing about are still unaware that there was life before Yahoo.

603
00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: You know the Internet? Okay, yeah, that's trademark. Yeah whatever.

604
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 1: Um so anyhow, it's free advertising until they see us

605
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:13,959
Speaker 1: for free advertising. Come on, alright, fine Google, Google, All Right,

606
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,479
Speaker 1: there we go. Now we're now, We're clear. I totally

607
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: feel better now. Al right, guys, how about that? Right?

608
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: Like I would say, we were on the mark. We

609
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 1: talked about broadband caps, we talked about mobile browsing, all

610
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: sorts of stuff. Now, there were some things that we

611
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: did not anticipate. We didn't talk about Google fiber, right,

612
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: we didn't necessarily get really deeply into net neutrality. We

613
00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 1: touched on it. So what I think we have to

614
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: do now is another episode. Right, we have to look

615
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: another five years in the future. You guys need to

616
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: know what the Internet is gonna be like in twenty

617
00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: twenty one. Liberal arts, major guys, give me a break.

618
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: So I am going to have a spell shual guest

619
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 1: join me for our next episode of tech Stuff. That

620
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: special guest is I, as actor of c net. Uh.

621
00:34:07,320 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 1: Chris is off doing his own thing, so I didn't

622
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,720
Speaker 1: club him over the head like I did for episode

623
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 1: I think six hundred. I instead getting I asked, come in.

624
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about what we think the internet will

625
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 1: be like in five more years. And you already have

626
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: heard our track record. You know that we're pretty darn accurate,

627
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,280
Speaker 1: so I'm just saying, look forward to keeping score again

628
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: in five more years. Until then, if you guys have

629
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: any suggestions for future episodes of tech Stuff, let me

630
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 1: know about them. Send me an email. The address is

631
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: tech Stuff at how stuff works dot com, or you

632
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: can drop me a line on Facebook or Twitter to

633
00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: handle it. Both of those places is text stuff hs W.

634
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: You guys, take it easy and I'll talk to you

635
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: again really soon for more on this and pathans of

636
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: others topics. Because it has staff works at m W