1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: Let's go to Ira Jersey. He covers all the interest 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: rates stuff for Bloomberg in intelligence. 9 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: Ira. 10 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: You know me, I try to stay away from that 11 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: whole interest rate thing, the whole yield curve discussion. You 12 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: don't want me anywhere near that. But I guess what 13 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: I'm hearing today and over the last couple of days 14 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: is higher for longer for US interest rates. Is that 15 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: what the market's telling. 16 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 3: You, Well, it's not so much the higher, it's more 17 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 3: the stay high for longer. So the story really that 18 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 3: we've been pricing the last couple of days, and we're 19 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 3: talking about very short term, is the idea that the 20 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve is not going to be cutting interest rates, 21 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 3: you know, maybe even into the second half of next year. 22 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 3: So although we you know, we're still pricing for some 23 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 3: probability of a hike later this year. The more important 24 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 3: thing is that we're starting to price out cuts, and 25 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 3: pricing out cuts is you know, in my opinion, that's 26 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 3: what the FED is really needed to try to try 27 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 3: to convince the market of for a long time, because 28 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 3: the fact that you were pricing in cuts just means 29 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 3: that the market was was that And if you look 30 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 3: at equities or credit, markets have just gotten easier and 31 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 3: financial conditions have eased because people thought that the FED 32 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,320 Speaker 3: was going to be early in cutting rates. And if 33 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 3: they're not going to cut rates early, then that's just 34 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 3: as good as hiking. 35 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 2: Isn't it. I mean, we're getting close to great financial 36 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:43,559 Speaker 2: crisis levels on rates. How high did we go back 37 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 2: then on a ten year on the thirty year ioerd 38 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,600 Speaker 2: because that was like the sky is falling and it 39 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:52,559 Speaker 2: doesn't feel like that at all right now. 40 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: Well, if you're talking about the financial crisis in two 41 00:01:56,080 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 3: thousand and seven, eight, you know, when we go back 42 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 3: to the early two thousands, whereasically back to those levels 43 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 3: on a lot of the curve, you know after two 44 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 3: thousand and seven, you know, this is the first time 45 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,120 Speaker 3: we've seen rates basically in the last fifteen years anywhere 46 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 3: close to these kinds of levels, particularly in the front 47 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 3: end of the curve. 48 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:20,240 Speaker 2: It's very isn't that crazy? Ira, Like two thousand and seven, 49 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: two thousand and eight, we barely got above five percent 50 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 2: on the tenure, right, And that was when like, if 51 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 2: the TARP vote didn't pass, the United States was going 52 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 2: to fail as a country. Like, how come were that 53 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: level now? 54 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 3: Well, mainly because we're in much different inflationary dynamics now 55 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,080 Speaker 3: than we were back then, Right, so we have to 56 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: have a monetary policy that's ultimately going to be more 57 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 3: restrictive than it was back during the financial crisis. So 58 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 3: you know, during the financial crisis, you had easing a 59 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 3: monetary policy, You had the Federal Reserve, Remember you had 60 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 3: the TARP vote, and then very soon thereafter they started 61 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,640 Speaker 3: their quantitative easing program and whether to buy a lot 62 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,959 Speaker 3: of treasury, started to buy a lot of mortgages. Now 63 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 3: that's reversing, right, So they started to do that. Remember 64 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 3: in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, the economy started to slow. 65 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 3: Then you had the pandemic, and that'll cause obviously the 66 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 3: Federal Reserve to be even easier and way easier even 67 00:03:17,919 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 3: than it was during the financial crisis. So I think 68 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,440 Speaker 3: it's a it's reactive right now that we're going to 69 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 3: see higher rates because of the strength of the economy, 70 00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 3: because of the monetary policy actions by the Fed, and importantly, 71 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 3: and I think this is definitely can't be underappreciated. And 72 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: if you go back to when the Treasury Department at 73 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: the beginning of the month came out and said we're 74 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 3: going to issue a trillion dollars of debt this quarter, 75 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 3: so just the July through September quarter, that was eye 76 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 3: popping to a lot of people because it was two 77 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 3: hundred billion dollars more than we thought. And I think 78 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 3: consensus was probably somewhere near there too. So you have 79 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,560 Speaker 3: supply dynamics on top of a reasonably strong economy and 80 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 3: monetary policy that's going to stay very uh, you know, 81 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 3: very tight for a while. All of those things are 82 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 3: going to mean that rates are going to be you know, 83 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 3: stuck probably at this these higher levels at least for 84 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 3: you know, for a few quarters, if not even a year. 85 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 4: It's no good. 86 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 1: I'm looking to refinance the mortgage, IRA, You're not helping 87 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: me out whatsoever, all right, No, not at all. Yeah, No, no, 88 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: thank you very much again, Uh Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Matt 89 00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 1: and I will not be there, but our good friends 90 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Surveillance will be there. 91 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 2: And why, I mean, what's the point of even going. 92 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 1: They're sending, well, they're gonna, They're sending the A team, 93 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: So Ira, does it matter? 94 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 4: Yeah? 95 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: Does it matter? 96 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 5: Ira? 97 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,880 Speaker 3: I doubt that that Ja Powell is going to say 98 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:44,280 Speaker 3: anything to uh, you know, to groundbreaking really because with 99 00:04:44,960 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 3: press conferences at every single FOMC meeting, he only uh, 100 00:04:48,600 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 3: you know, spoke to us in late July. So it's 101 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 3: hard to imagine that even though the data has been 102 00:04:53,320 --> 00:04:57,280 Speaker 3: a little bit better maybe than expectations, it hasn't been 103 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 3: strong enough for you know, for the FED to completely 104 00:04:59,800 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 3: change their view. But there will be nuance. I think 105 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 3: that we'll be listening for so things like if if 106 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:07,559 Speaker 3: Jay Powell starts talking about the medium term and about 107 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 3: some of the structural shifts in the in the global 108 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 3: economy with wages and with supply chains and the like, 109 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: you know, we might be able to at least you know, 110 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 3: glean some information from there. Will it be massively market moving? 111 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 4: I doubt it. 112 00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 3: But at the same time, liquidity has been pretty poor, 113 00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:27,359 Speaker 3: which is one of the reasons you've seen such big moves. 114 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 3: So if he does happen to say something that's a 115 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 3: little bit unexpected, you could see a pop here and 116 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 3: there in the market, whether it's you know rates, you know, 117 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: ten year yields, five bases points lower, five bases points. 118 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,679 Speaker 1: Higher, real quick, Ira, Are you surprised how successful Messi's 119 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:42,719 Speaker 1: been in Miami so far? 120 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 6: Not really. 121 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 3: You know, Major League soccer teams have have salary caps, 122 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 3: and they tend to spend their money more on attacking 123 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,039 Speaker 3: talent than they do on defenders. So Messi is just, 124 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 3: you know, tearing up a lot of the defenses in 125 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 3: Major League Soccer. 126 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: It's fun to watch. It'll taste coming to New York 127 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: right now. And John Fair was just saying, I was 128 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,799 Speaker 1: listening on surveillance. A ticket that usually goes for seventy 129 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,440 Speaker 1: five or one hundred bucks in New York for the 130 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:06,240 Speaker 1: New York Red Red Bulls, when Miami comes in a 131 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: thousand bucks. 132 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 4: Dude. 133 00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 2: He told me that the DC game tickets start at 134 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 2: twelve dollars. Yeah, but I mean once Messi and when 135 00:06:13,680 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 2: Messi comes, tickets start at four ninety six exactly. That's 136 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 2: a delta. 137 00:06:17,520 --> 00:06:19,640 Speaker 1: That's a delta. Ira Jersey, thanks so much for joining us. 138 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 1: Irad Jersey chief US interest rate strategist and soccer strategist 139 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: as well soccer owner. He's a mogul in the world 140 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: of soccer. 141 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 7: You're listening to the team Can's are live program Bloomberg 142 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 143 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,160 Speaker 7: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 144 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 7: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 145 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 2: I'm so glad. 146 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: I'm not like like I'm managing a cyclical business. I 147 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: put up a really good quarter. I saw a lot 148 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: of tractors, the farmers in good shape. Yet my stock's 149 00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: down four percent because these darn analysts and investors are 150 00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 1: looking six, twelve, eighteen months down the road and saying, hey, 151 00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: it can't get any better than it is right now. 152 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: Somebody has to live this on a daily basis is 153 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 1: Brook Southerland, and she covers all the industrial stuff, including 154 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,480 Speaker 1: dear for Bloomberg Are Opinion. 155 00:07:09,320 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 2: Back to news. 156 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: I don't know where are you these things still in 157 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion bo Yeah, Brook Joints is here in our 158 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. So Brook, what did you take 159 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 1: of the deer earnings? How's the American farmer doing these days? 160 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 8: You know, I think they had been doing pretty well, 161 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 8: you know, on the back of rising crop prices, and 162 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 8: that really provided an opportunity to go out and replace 163 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 8: farm equipment because we had a very long period where 164 00:07:31,400 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 8: you know, tractors were getting up there in terms of 165 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 8: duration and people were holding off on purchases, and of 166 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 8: course we've seen the other end of that, but now, 167 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 8: you know, we're starting to see some pressure on crop prices, 168 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 8: just with some of the harvesting proatorns that we've seen. 169 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 8: But I think, you know, sort of the the crux 170 00:07:45,840 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 8: of the issues. If you look at deer's numbers, they're 171 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 8: very good, but it's not volumes that's really driving everything here. 172 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,559 Speaker 8: It's priced. And they have a ton of pricing power 173 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 8: because they are such a dominant provider of tractors, and 174 00:07:57,040 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 8: they also really have invested in the technology curve in 175 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 8: terms of making their machines more efficient, more productive for 176 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 8: those farmers, and that has really helped them get pricing power. 177 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 8: But I think you have to wonder at what point 178 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 8: have we reached sort of the peak of pushing through 179 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 8: these price increases, we start to lap tougher comparisons. Has 180 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 8: the farmer maybe had enough in terms of those price increases, 181 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 8: And I think that's why you're seeing some of the 182 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 8: pressure on the stairs today in the stock. 183 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's come down substantially, but they're still doing really well. 184 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 2: I look at comp chart comp on the Bloomberg. It 185 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 2: automatically defaults to a five year period, and they have 186 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 2: more than tripled over the past five years. You know, 187 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,199 Speaker 2: compared to an S and P that's up sixty six percent. 188 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 2: The Industrials index on the S and P is up 189 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:43,600 Speaker 2: fifty two percent. So they're a huge outperformer, right, Who 190 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 2: are their biggest competitors? Like, who else has the name, brand, 191 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 2: recognition and quality of a John Deere? 192 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 8: I mean, not really anybody, And I think that's why 193 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 8: they have so much pricing power. I mean, you do 194 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 8: have competitors like CNH is one that people look at. 195 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: I know is another tractor maker that people like. Lamborghini 196 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 2: actually makes trackers tractors, not the car company that's owned 197 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 2: by Folkswagen. But of course, yeah, Lamborghini started out as 198 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 2: a tractor maker. That's what Feruccio Lamborghini did. 199 00:09:15,080 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: Before make a better clutch. 200 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. He got in a fight with Enzo 201 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 2: Ferrari about the clutch and he shifted businesses. 202 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 8: But CNH has also made some comments about you know, 203 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 8: we might be reaching sort of the limits of pricing 204 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 8: increases with that farmer population. But and you know, to 205 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 8: your point where you've seen that kind of really aggressive 206 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 8: share climb, this is not the first time we wondered 207 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:36,840 Speaker 8: if this is as good as it gets for deer, 208 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,319 Speaker 8: because it has been a very good and somewhat prolonged 209 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 8: ag production cycle here. But you know, at a certain 210 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 8: point you can't go out forever. 211 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 1: If I'm a farmer at in Iowa, how long do 212 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 1: I own it my dear tractor before I replace it? 213 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 3: Usually? 214 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 8: I think it depends, I mean again on sort of 215 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:54,960 Speaker 8: what the market dynamics are and when it is a 216 00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,440 Speaker 8: good time to spend on new equipment. And then, like 217 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 8: I said, you know, they're also investing in better technology 218 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 8: that can really help on the productivity front, especially for 219 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 8: farmers that are suffering with labor shortages, to help get 220 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 8: around some of that. And I think that all sort 221 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 8: of weighs on the decision making. 222 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: Process labor was an issue for Deer, and they solved 223 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 2: that pretty quickly. I remember, is that an issue again 224 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,840 Speaker 2: or have they dealt with it for the long term 225 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,439 Speaker 2: and others have to now deal with that same issue. 226 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 8: Well, I mean, the thing with these union negotiations is 227 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 8: they kind of come back around. 228 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: Well, That's why I'm wondering, because we're seeing it in 229 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,439 Speaker 2: automotive right the UAW right now is trying to negotiate 230 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 2: a huge contract with GM and Ford and you also 231 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 2: see you know, pilots and in airlines. The unions are 232 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: getting agitated again. So has Deer, though, is that sort 233 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 2: of one tailwind that they've already dealt with this? 234 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,880 Speaker 8: I think that to your point about how well Deer 235 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:52,760 Speaker 8: has been doing. I think that's one reason why the 236 00:10:52,840 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 8: unions feel so empowered is that that was a pretty 237 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 8: significant wage increase when they struck that deal. And then 238 00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,319 Speaker 8: you just look at how successful Deer had has been 239 00:11:00,360 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 8: and how much it has been able to increase prices 240 00:11:02,679 --> 00:11:05,200 Speaker 8: for its customers and ramp up profits that it could 241 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 8: was in a great position to shoulder that extra wage 242 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:12,600 Speaker 8: costs for those employees. UPS is obviously talking about trying 243 00:11:12,640 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 8: to do the same thing down the road. They sounded 244 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 8: very confident on their earnings call about being able to 245 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 8: offset those higher wage costs with productivity improvements, investing in automation, 246 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 8: things like that. And so I think that's what's really 247 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 8: empowering the unions is they're saying, look, you're really raking 248 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 8: it in and we want our for sure of that. 249 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:30,400 Speaker 1: If I'm a farmer in Iowa again, I'm going back 250 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: there and I want to invest in a big tractor. 251 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 1: Does Deer give me financing or where do I How 252 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 1: does that work? 253 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 8: They do have a financing arm? 254 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: Yes, okay, because that guy, I mean, like Ge for example, 255 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 1: that got to be such a huge part of their business. 256 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: It's not like that for Deer. 257 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 8: Well, Ge is now out of that. 258 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 5: That's right. 259 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:48,360 Speaker 2: It didn't work that well. 260 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 8: For they went maybe too far, too many different directions 261 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:53,000 Speaker 8: at the same time. 262 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 2: But I do wonder though, I mean, is it is 263 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 2: it a bonus to have your own in house financing 264 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 2: arm when race ries like this, because you can find 265 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:04,679 Speaker 2: ways to maybe give customers a better deal than they're 266 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,080 Speaker 2: going to get from their local bank. 267 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 8: That was always the argument. I mean, that's why Ge 268 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 8: got into that business in the first place. And you 269 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 8: know why some of these other companies have these financing arms. 270 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 8: But it'll certainly be interesting to see how that plays 271 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 8: out as we get further into this interest. 272 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: Right, we've got you in studio, so we're going to 273 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: just play around here. Rip up the script this, Tom 274 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: Kean would say, US Steel a I didn't even think 275 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,600 Speaker 1: it was still in existence as a company until the 276 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 1: takeover stuff happened. Where are we with that story here? 277 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,600 Speaker 8: It's it's heating up. It's the center of a binning ward. 278 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 8: It's one of the oldest American companies, used to be 279 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 8: one of the biggest, and now it increasingly looks like 280 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 8: it is going to be bought by somebody. 281 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 2: But they need so here's another place where unions have 282 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 2: real strength. Right, Is it the case that the union 283 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 2: has to support the bid in order for US Steel 284 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 2: to be able to accept it. 285 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 8: What US Steel has said is that the union does 286 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 8: not have a veto over a takeover offer, but they 287 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 8: do have the ability to mount a counter offer, and 288 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,720 Speaker 8: they have said this morning that they are going to 289 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 8: transfer that right to a counter offer to Cleveland Cliffs. 290 00:13:11,600 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 8: But I don't know that. You know, there's a lot 291 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 8: of aggressive rhetoric out there, and I don't know that 292 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 8: we should assume that US Steal necessarily doesn't want to 293 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 8: sell to Cleveland Cliffs. There's some sort of bias against 294 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 8: that sort of What they said is that they wanted 295 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 8: Cleveland Cliffs to agree to an NDA to do a 296 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 8: due diligence process, and Cleveland Cliffs wouldn't do that until 297 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 8: they agreed to the economic terms upfront, which is somewhat unusual. 298 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 8: And I think there's just a lot more of this 299 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 8: process to play out. And I also don't think we 300 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 8: know who all of the parties are yet. So when 301 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 8: US Steal announced its strategic review, they said they'd had 302 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 8: multiple offers for all and also parts of the company. 303 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 8: And I think there might be more players to come 304 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 8: out of the woodwork here, and I think there's just 305 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 8: a long way to go with this takeover story. 306 00:13:53,480 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 7: All right. 307 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:56,160 Speaker 2: I got a question on a different issue, but you've 308 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 2: been writing about it. So when I moved to Berlin 309 00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 2: into the sixteen, I had just bought myself a Portie 310 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 2: nine to eleven carrerass here and I didn't want to 311 00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 2: lose it, so I paid the four and a half 312 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 2: thousand dollars that I think it costs for me to 313 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 2: get you know, half half a trailer on a freighter 314 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: ship and shipped it over to Germany and it was great. 315 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 2: I got to drive it on the Autuban. It absolutely 316 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 2: loved it. It was the perfect car for Germany. But when 317 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 2: I moved back to New York at the end of 318 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 2: twenty twenty one and I went to call the same 319 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: shipper to ask how much it would be, they quoted 320 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 2: me more than twenty thousand dollars, approaching twenty five thousand dollars, 321 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,040 Speaker 2: So the price had essentially gone up five x and 322 00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 2: I had to sell my beloved Carrera. It was I'm 323 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 2: still a little bit heartbroken, although it helped me to 324 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 2: finance my current home. Are those prices coming back down 325 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 2: to earth? Have we come back to normal now in 326 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 2: terms of freight shipping, they have. 327 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 8: Come back down. I would say you maybe or surely 328 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:02,280 Speaker 8: moved at the raw town. If you've moved in the 329 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 8: spring of twenty twenty three, you might have had a 330 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:08,960 Speaker 8: better quoted on that. But yes, so it is that 331 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 8: we did see shipping prices really crashing back down to 332 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 8: earth as we sort of had that pivot away from 333 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 8: good spending back towards services. But now we're starting to 334 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 8: see signs of life again in the freight market. The DRWY, 335 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 8: the WCI freight indexes increased for six straight weeks. That's 336 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 8: the longest positive stretch since January twenty twenty two. And so, 337 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 8: and you know, we're also seeing maybe some progress in 338 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 8: the trucking market where we might be hitting a bottom 339 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 8: and starting to find our way, you know, toward a 340 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 8: point of stabilization, because it has been really rough for 341 00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 8: that freight sector. I mean, I know there's a lot 342 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 8: of debate about whether the broader economy is in a session, 343 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 8: but the freight sector has been there and it's been 344 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 8: tough out there, and we're starting to see sort of 345 00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 8: a light at the end of the tunnel. 346 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: I mean, you go over to like by the Port 347 00:15:51,400 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 1: of Newark over there, like by Newark Airport, they got 348 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: the container stack like twenty high. 349 00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, go get one of that. And I only needed 350 00:15:57,480 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: half from my car because the containers I think are 351 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 2: forty feet long and I only needed twenty feet. But 352 00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 2: I just couldn't justify paying twenty five grand, and I 353 00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 2: wouldn't have been able to afford my house if I 354 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 2: hadn't sold the nine eleven. That's probably a good thing 355 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 2: in a sense. I'm living in a Porsche in West Yes, 356 00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 2: all right, Brooks. 357 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: Other then she covers all the industrial stuff for Bloomberg Opinion. 358 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: Joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. 359 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Cat's are live program Bloomberg 360 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 361 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 362 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App. 363 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 364 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 365 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,040 Speaker 1: Let's stop tech talk here. The tech stocks have been 366 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: particularly the top five to seven names have really been 367 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: leading this market this year. As people are in search 368 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,320 Speaker 1: for growth and what are they doing. They're generating a 369 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: ton of cash, which raises the question, what are these 370 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: tech companies doing with their cash? Let's bring in Angelas. 371 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: You know he's a senior industry analyst at CFRA Research. 372 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: Hey, Angela. 373 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,520 Speaker 1: Again, a lot of these tech companies, you know, it's 374 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:06,159 Speaker 1: putting up gobs and gobs and cash like Alphabet, you know, 375 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,239 Speaker 1: one hundred and eighteen billion dollar cash pile. What are 376 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: these companies doing with their cash? And what do you 377 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 1: think they should be doing with their cash? 378 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, so for the most part, most of these you know, 379 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 9: megacap tech names are really leveraging the cash towards buybacks, 380 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 9: and it's what they've been doing for years at this 381 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 9: point in time. 382 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 6: Clearly, Apple kind of you know the post. 383 00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 9: A boy child in that area buying back, announcing a 384 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 9: ninety billion dollar buy back earlier this year on top 385 00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:35,480 Speaker 9: of the ninety billion they did last year. 386 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,400 Speaker 6: So that's really where most of the cash is going. 387 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 9: Alphabet did the same thing, announcing a seventy billion dollar 388 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 9: buy back this year on top of the seventy billion 389 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 9: announced last year. 390 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 6: So that's where the cash is going. 391 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:50,040 Speaker 9: A big reason for that is they really can't do 392 00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 9: anything else with it in the sense that the M 393 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 9: and A market for a lot of these large cap 394 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 9: companies are essentially closed outside of the fact that we 395 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 9: are likely going to see an improved deal of that 396 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 9: that Microsoft Activision transaction out there. 397 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 6: So we expect them to continue to. 398 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,439 Speaker 9: Utilize most of the cash towards buybacks going forward, and 399 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 9: we actually think that's the right move here and a 400 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 9: big reason for that is it will support earnings grow. 401 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 9: We do expect free cash flow to continue to grow 402 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 9: here over the next five to ten years incrementally, and 403 00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 9: that'll continue to support a higher share price. 404 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 4: Innar view. 405 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 1: All right, So here's my pet peeve for the big 406 00:18:27,600 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 1: tech names. I think they should be like Apple, for example, 407 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: they should have a two and a half to three 408 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: and a half percent dividend yield and they don't. 409 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 5: Why is that? 410 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 9: I think there's a perception out there where if you 411 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 9: make a move like that, you know, it almost tells 412 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 9: you that the maybe the growth trajectory of the company 413 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 9: isn't going to be as favorable as maybe they believe 414 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 9: that it should be. And you know, I think they 415 00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 9: do want to have a cash out there accessible in 416 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,640 Speaker 9: case they were able to go out there and make 417 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,159 Speaker 9: a a big splash out there in the market. 418 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 6: Gets somewhat a creative on the m and a side 419 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 6: of things. 420 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,920 Speaker 9: You know, clearly the regulatory environment does change over time, 421 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,480 Speaker 9: and I think they want to just have that cash 422 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:13,359 Speaker 9: available out there. And when you kind of look at 423 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 9: what specifically Apple, right since twenty twelve, they've essentially bought 424 00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,200 Speaker 9: back or reduced their sharecount by more than forty percent. 425 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 9: That's absolutely remarkable because many of these companies out there 426 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 9: that do have buybacks that are essentially washing out, you know, 427 00:19:27,320 --> 00:19:31,880 Speaker 9: they are essentially kind of just offsetting, you know, share 428 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 9: dilution with those buybacks, Apple is actually reducing their shareccount 429 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 9: and they will will continue. 430 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:39,159 Speaker 6: To do so over the next decade. 431 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 9: So we think the growth rejectory for Apple continues to 432 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 9: be very attractive. 433 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:45,360 Speaker 6: And you know, when you look at a company like. 434 00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 9: Apple specifically, we think that is a stock that continues 435 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:50,959 Speaker 9: to be under owned in many respects because there are 436 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 9: a lot of fund managers out there that can't own 437 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 9: seven percent of a stock like Apple. So it's really 438 00:19:57,840 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 9: interesting that you continue to kind of reduce the share 439 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 9: count while also having kind of this under owned asset 440 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 9: out there. 441 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 6: So we think it's we continue to think it's the 442 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 6: right move, and we think. 443 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,960 Speaker 9: Apple continues to view their stock is an attractive opportunity 444 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,040 Speaker 9: from evaluation perspective. 445 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 2: I mean, I I hear this angelo from other analysts 446 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 2: as well, that you know, they don't want to send 447 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: the wrong sign to the markets that they're not a 448 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 2: growth company, but Apple should set the tone. You know, 449 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 2: they they don't the markets have to send a sign 450 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 2: to Apple, not the other way around. They they they 451 00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:36,600 Speaker 2: always have one hundred or two hundred billion dollars in 452 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 2: cash and cash equivalents. I wonder what else they're gonna 453 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 2: do with the money. I mean, why don't they make 454 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 2: a big acquisition? I look at I look at the 455 00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 2: money they have, right, I guess last fiscal year was 456 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty nine billion dollars, And then I 457 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 2: look at a Disney market cap one hundred and fifty seven. 458 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: Why don't they just use it? No? 459 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 6: I think that's a fair point. I think a big 460 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 6: reason they don't do it. 461 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 9: I mean, maybe not as much as an Apple's case, 462 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 9: but in others I think there you know, I think 463 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 9: there would be too much kind of backlash from a 464 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 9: regulatory perspective to allow a deal like that to take place, 465 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 9: to be honest with you, but you know, I think 466 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,120 Speaker 9: Apple does want to kind of have that cash available 467 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,159 Speaker 9: just in case they want to make a move like that. 468 00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 9: But at the end of the day, listen, it's not 469 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 9: in their DNA, right. They've never made an acquisition or 470 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 9: for three billion dollars. 471 00:21:24,680 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 6: We know that. 472 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 9: And when you kind of look ahead, and we look 473 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 9: at their pipeline. We continue to view this as a 474 00:21:30,240 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 9: company that could no longer term continue to grow the 475 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:37,720 Speaker 9: EPs at a ten percent plus clip. And those buybacks 476 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 9: in terms of you know, essentially buying back three percent 477 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 9: of their shares to continue to help that EPs grow trajectory. 478 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 9: We'll support that ten percent plus EPs clip. So again, 479 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 9: we think it's the right move that they that cash. 480 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 9: That net cash balance has been dwindling over the last 481 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 9: couple of years to maybe to your point where that 482 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,240 Speaker 9: they don't they acknowledged that they don't need as much 483 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,399 Speaker 9: cash out there, But in the same respect, I mean, listen, 484 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 9: I mean, it's it's a great problem to have, right 485 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 9: if you're Apple, if you're Alphabet, or anybody any of 486 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 9: these other megacap tech firms out there. 487 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: All right, Angela, Aside from from Apple, what else do 488 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: you like in your coverage area? 489 00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean, listen, We do continue to like a 490 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,959 Speaker 9: lot of the chip names out there, you know, specifically 491 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 9: kind of the ongoing AI. 492 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,040 Speaker 6: Shift out there towards general of AI. We think you're 493 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 6: still in the early innings there. 494 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 9: And Video of course, is a name that has you know, 495 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 9: essentially tripled this year and essentially nearly quadrupled off its lows. 496 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 9: But that being said, we do think that, you know, 497 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 9: over the next kind of three to four years, you're 498 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 9: going to see this shift, this titanic shift in the 499 00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:45,200 Speaker 9: form of how computing and networking chips out there are 500 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 9: going to kind of be valued and the amount of 501 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 9: demand you're going to see kind of from this general 502 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 9: AI shift. And that being said, we continue to like 503 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 9: in Vidia as well as Broadcom, which has been two 504 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 9: of the big winners out there. On top of that, 505 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,479 Speaker 9: mar as well as A and D we think are 506 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,000 Speaker 9: going to be big winners in the coming years. On 507 00:23:05,080 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 9: top of kind of you know, some of our favorite 508 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 9: names on the megacat tech names. 509 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what Angelo in Nvidia. I guess they 510 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,840 Speaker 1: report after the close on Wednesday. Man, they better put 511 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 1: up a big print because given what their stock has 512 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 1: done on the back of that true big raise they 513 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: had last quarter, exciting, what's the risk in that name? 514 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: Do you think? I mean, man, I can't think of 515 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: a company's got more expectations built into their stock short 516 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:28,639 Speaker 1: term than in Video. 517 00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 9: Yeah, And to be honest with you, it's going to 518 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 9: be tough for them to kind of expede exceed some 519 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 9: of those expectations out there. I mean, at this point 520 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 9: in time, you kind of look at what they did 521 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 9: in terms of their last quarterly results essentially kind of 522 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 9: double the expectation on the data center side of things, 523 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 9: and we do think that, you know, they've got a 524 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,320 Speaker 9: good problem out there in the sense that their chips 525 00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 9: are supply constrained out there. When you kind of look 526 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,000 Speaker 9: at the valuation, at least relative to historical levels, it's 527 00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 9: actually not that demanding. So we think there's very little 528 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 9: downside potential at least in terms of where the consensus 529 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 9: estimates are, and there is upside potential. But that said, 530 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,160 Speaker 9: you know, the valuation is always kind of the question 531 00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 9: mark with Nvidia. Here, we think where investors continue to 532 00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 9: underestimate the Nvidia story is really kind of the fact 533 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 9: that this is more of a total solutions company rather. 534 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 6: Than a steamy conductor company. 535 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 9: So you know, the capabilities and the upside potential on 536 00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 9: the software side of the side of things, if they 537 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 9: taught that up on this earning school, that's where the 538 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 9: upside potential we think is for the stop. 539 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: All right, Angela, thanks so much for joining us. Really 540 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 1: appreciate getting a couple of minutes of your time. Angelo 541 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 1: is you know, he's a senior industry analyst, says c 542 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 1: f r A Research. 543 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:45,760 Speaker 7: You're listening to the team ken'shur Live program Bloomberg Markets 544 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 545 00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 7: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 546 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,160 Speaker 7: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 547 00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: Bitcoint off five point six percent is to just reporting 548 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: twenty six tho ninety people heading for the exits. 549 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:01,919 Speaker 8: Here. 550 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: I'm going to check in with the King of South Beach, 551 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: Mike mcloan, senior macro strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, what's 552 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 1: happening out there with the bitcoin? 553 00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,400 Speaker 10: You always bring me on and I start laughing from 554 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,760 Speaker 10: those Southeast connotations. So I appreciate that. 555 00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 6: I appreciate that Paul. 556 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,239 Speaker 10: Bitcoin is I think resuming a bear mark, and I 557 00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 10: look at it. The headline I put out today is 558 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 10: appeared to me it appairs similar to the US stock 559 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 10: market in nineteen thirty when it rolled over and then 560 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 10: it kept going over down after it bounced. And the 561 00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 10: key thing about it is, let's just look at bitcoin 562 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 10: right before this COVID right before the biggest pomp and 563 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,120 Speaker 10: liquidity in history. It was around ten thousand and still 564 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 10: right now it's around twenty six. So I think there's 565 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,960 Speaker 10: risk it can head that way. It's the leading indicator. 566 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 10: It's one of the most world speculative digital assets, most significant. 567 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:55,240 Speaker 10: But I think that leading indicator is what to me 568 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 10: is important for the rest of the market, like the 569 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 10: stock market. The key to me win is just look 570 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,000 Speaker 10: at that US government too. You know you can purchase 571 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 10: a too. You note around five percent lock up almost 572 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,200 Speaker 10: ten percent in two years, first time you've been able 573 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 10: to do that since about two thousand and seven. I 574 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 10: look at it. Every rational person in the planet who's 575 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 10: got money and is invested is looking at that and saying, 576 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 10: thank you, I'll do that. And I think that's what's 577 00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 10: happening with all risk assets, and it's just getting started. 578 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 2: Is there a concern that you know, Elon Musk has 579 00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 2: sold a ton of bitcoin? Didn't I read that somewhere? 580 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, I thought he sold already. I heard SpaceX today. 581 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,160 Speaker 10: But this is a problem I think with bitcoin. You're 582 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 10: kind I think in this case, some of these leverage 583 00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,720 Speaker 10: longs that brought right when the black Rock announced that 584 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,680 Speaker 10: they were going to apply for an ETF, it hasn't 585 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 10: been approved. The market rally from about twenty five thousand 586 00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:48,000 Speaker 10: to just above thirty. You get a lot of leverage 587 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 10: longs in theirs. I think we're stopping those people out, 588 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:53,679 Speaker 10: and it's they're getting long for the wrong reason. With 589 00:26:53,720 --> 00:26:56,119 Speaker 10: the hopium that you're going to get an ETF. To me, 590 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 10: it's a fund of metals. 591 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 4: Yeah. 592 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 10: Well it's a word I learned from bitcoin people and 593 00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:02,440 Speaker 10: crypto people, that opium. And so now it's the question 594 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 10: of what stops this downward trajectory. So one thing I 595 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,320 Speaker 10: pointed out and published to say, if you just look 596 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 10: at one hundred week move an average at Bitcoin, it's 597 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 10: rolled over and it's trending downward for the highest velocity ever. 598 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 10: Now Bitcoin's only been around about fourteen years. And then 599 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 10: I think to myself, what stops just normal reversion of 600 00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,000 Speaker 10: the best performing asset ever. And number one thing is 601 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 10: the FED is still tightening. The FED is still telling 602 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:24,640 Speaker 10: you is still taking liquid e the way, and here's 603 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 10: a highly speculative asset that went up a lot. I 604 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 10: still think that's the risk it continues to revert. 605 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,520 Speaker 1: Mike this sounds for bitcoin. From what I'm hearing from you, 606 00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,119 Speaker 1: that more of a technical kind of thing. Do I 607 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: look at GRET charts? Do I see where a technical 608 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 1: bottom is here? Do I start doing that kind of thing? 609 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,199 Speaker 10: I view it as the opposite. I was just on 610 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 10: a call and they're toat pointing all the technicals. People 611 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 10: trade it too much. I view it as number one 612 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 10: headline is the FED is still tightening. And then you 613 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 10: try to put it into things that we see as humans. 614 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,480 Speaker 10: We can't really you can see the tightening, can feel, 615 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,320 Speaker 10: but you can watch the price. And I just point 616 00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 10: out trends down, FEDS tightening. Use it discipline of a 617 00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 10: good investor, respect the trend. So as far as I 618 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 10: think people are looking at twenty five thousand is the 619 00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,479 Speaker 10: first level, and then of course look at twenty thousand. 620 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,400 Speaker 10: I mentioned a level I think it could go back 621 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,360 Speaker 10: to in a normal recession environment, which is the view 622 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 10: of Anna Wong our cheap economs. We should be heading 623 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 10: towards the recession, which is the indication from the inverted 624 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,720 Speaker 10: Yeeld curve, And why not go back to ten thousand, 625 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:23,920 Speaker 10: That's where it was before the FED. Well, that's where 626 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 10: the it was hovering around ten thousand right before this 627 00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,240 Speaker 10: massive pump on liquidity with the COVID. Now that liquidity 628 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 10: is going way to break neck pace. Bottom line is 629 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,399 Speaker 10: all the lessons of history in assets that pump on liquidity, 630 00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 10: and when that liquidity goes away, you know that lessons 631 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 10: are that assets usually reverted. It's a question of how far. 632 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:47,400 Speaker 2: Where do you expect to see bitcoin in the coming years. 633 00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 2: I mean, is it possible that we drop back down 634 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 2: to sixteen thousand or even test those limits again? 635 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:54,400 Speaker 4: Yeah? 636 00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,120 Speaker 10: So I think it has a bottom around fifteen and 637 00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 10: most people look at that as oh, I'm going to 638 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 10: be buying here and getting near there, and that is 639 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 10: the risk I see as the bottom line for me, 640 00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 10: Matt is this is part of the macro. It's just 641 00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 10: a good indication that I think we're heading into more 642 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,800 Speaker 10: significant bear market. We look at the stock market, it 643 00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,080 Speaker 10: typically doesn't bottom until about two years after the FED 644 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:15,680 Speaker 10: starts easy. We haven't done that. They're still tightening, and 645 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,200 Speaker 10: to me, this is part of just this is the 646 00:29:17,280 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 10: leading indicator. So I see, I don't know how long 647 00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 10: it takes, but like I said, I compared it to 648 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,600 Speaker 10: the stock market in nineteen thirty and right now it's 649 00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 10: a bear market. It's heading lower and the FED still tightening. 650 00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 10: So I don't even see light at the end of 651 00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 10: the tunnel for risk assets the bottom and bitcoin is 652 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 10: just the best leading indicator. 653 00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:32,560 Speaker 4: All right. 654 00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 1: So aside from bitcoin, what's the you know, if I 655 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 1: go to a BBI commodity, what are some of the 656 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 1: top two or three things you guys are working on. 657 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 10: Well, I'm still watching crude oil and now crudel is 658 00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 10: hovering about unchanged in the year. Obviously, I'm still bears 659 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 10: crudel and a normal trajectory after the pump last year, 660 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 10: as you typically head towards two cheap levels. Two cheap 661 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,880 Speaker 10: levels in crudel, not at eighty, it's around forty or fifty. 662 00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 10: And then you look at the macro of it. China 663 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:03,240 Speaker 10: is clearly in decline. Stops this downward revision and economic 664 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:05,520 Speaker 10: outlook for China, I don't see it now. We should 665 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 10: expect stimulus from there, but they just upset their biggest 666 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,760 Speaker 10: export customers, Europe and the US with this war. And 667 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 10: it's not really China anymore. It's one leader, President Zy. 668 00:30:14,800 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 10: So I think you're seeing a situation in China It's 669 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 10: similar to peak Soviet Union and peak Japan in the 670 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,800 Speaker 10: late eighties early nineties. So there's a demand side and 671 00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 10: great and that's still going that way. When you look 672 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,880 Speaker 10: at copper, copper is pointing that way. Copper is tilting lower. 673 00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,720 Speaker 10: It's right around three dollars and seventy cents a pound. 674 00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 10: Its average price for the last year twenty years is 675 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,600 Speaker 10: three dollars a pound. That shows deflationary forces over overall. 676 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 10: And I don't see what stops it from going that level. 677 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:43,920 Speaker 10: You have to see a major pickup in China, you 678 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 10: have to see major weakness in US dollar and fed 679 00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 10: easy Typically they're they're all going the wrong way at 680 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 10: the moment. So I look at this is the early 681 00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:52,120 Speaker 10: days of a bear market, and then you have to 682 00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 10: ask yourself, is just what happens to all these asks? 683 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,920 Speaker 10: If the US dour market rolls over for normal recession 684 00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,080 Speaker 10: and typic, it doesn't bottom until we're well into an 685 00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 10: easing cycle. We're still tidying. 686 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,280 Speaker 1: So when you're out of the clubbing South Beach, you 687 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:09,360 Speaker 1: don't talk commodities. Do you have, Mike, Please tell me 688 00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:10,719 Speaker 1: you got a better game than that. 689 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 10: Well, I try to avoid the subject but I have 690 00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 10: to admit I've been in warning to most people, and 691 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,480 Speaker 10: people I just point out studying the history. I've been 692 00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 10: doing a lot of that late lately. Is I think 693 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 10: we're heading towards the biggest reset of our lifetime. Now 694 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,959 Speaker 10: you just look at property values in Florida. There is 695 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 10: no history of major fluctuations and property values in Florida. 696 00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:31,440 Speaker 10: It looks like there's just starting to roll over. What 697 00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 10: I'm hearing and this thing. The bottom line is we're 698 00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:37,560 Speaker 10: still taking away the punch bowl, and that is what 699 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:39,720 Speaker 10: I'm really worried about. It's a classic example of the 700 00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,719 Speaker 10: Look at PPI. The producer price in the next went 701 00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 10: from eighteen to minus three. That's finished goods. That's the 702 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 10: biggest correction since nineteen forty eight, so pretty significant deflationary forces. 703 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 10: And then you look at the Fed funds at five 704 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 10: and a quarter, it's well above and CPI well above PEPI. 705 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:59,479 Speaker 10: It's clearly contractory and we're just early days. So I 706 00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,480 Speaker 10: look at this this is this is just a normal cycle. 707 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,800 Speaker 10: And the normal cycle is we're very elevating in risk assets. 708 00:32:06,840 --> 00:32:09,040 Speaker 10: And bitcoin is the good leading indicator, which crude oil 709 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 10: around forty, copper lower and you know, I just be 710 00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 10: lucky lucky. I mean, here's the lose lose. Every time 711 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:20,560 Speaker 10: the stock market's gone up, it's increased rate height expectations. 712 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 10: I don't think the Fed's going to ease until the 713 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 10: stock market tells him to by going down. 714 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, good stuff. 715 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 2: And I want to get you back on a little 716 00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 2: bit later, Mike, if we can to talk about what's 717 00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 2: going on with the eggs, because I think it's bigger 718 00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 2: than people realize, certainly bigger than we give it time for. 719 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,320 Speaker 2: And any he knows that stuff, I know. Yeah, all right, 720 00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 2: that's why he's the man for that. 721 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,520 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape. Catch a live program Bloomberg 722 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 723 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 724 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,320 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 725 00:32:53,360 --> 00:33:00,000 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 726 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 1: You know, Mat, when we talk about the economy, oftentimes 727 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:05,080 Speaker 1: folks to say, you know, I'm thinking about a hard landing. 728 00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 1: I'm thinking about a soft landing. And then we've recently 729 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 1: heard this phrase, no landing and I think we need 730 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 1: to talk to a licensed pilot, because I don't think 731 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,000 Speaker 1: that's even possible. Fortunate for us, our next guest is 732 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,920 Speaker 1: a licensed pilot, Jamie Patten. She's co head of Global 733 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 1: Rates at TCW. So Jamie got a lot of smart 734 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: people there at TCW out in Los Angeles. What kind 735 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,959 Speaker 1: of economic landing are you guys calling for? 736 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 11: Well, thank you for bringing up the no landing scenario analogy, 737 00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 11: which is my least favorite analogy of all, mostly because 738 00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:38,800 Speaker 11: it defies the laws of physics. 739 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:40,240 Speaker 12: What goes up must come down. 740 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,440 Speaker 11: But also just being a pilot, airplanes run on gas, 741 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 11: and even if everything goes perfectly and you really don't 742 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:48,880 Speaker 11: want to land, you're going to run out of gas. 743 00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,040 Speaker 12: So I hate that analogy. 744 00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 11: But I do love flying analogies, and I think that 745 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:59,800 Speaker 11: they're perfect for monetary policy hiking cycles, especially this one. 746 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 12: At TCW, we are expecting a hard landing. 747 00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:06,920 Speaker 11: Specifically, the analogy that I like the most is a 748 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:10,880 Speaker 11: soft field landing, which, to give you a little bit 749 00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:12,880 Speaker 11: of background, not to talk about flying too much, but 750 00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 11: do it. Soft field landings are notoriously dangerous. Pilots never 751 00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 11: totally know what hazards lurk under the soft under the 752 00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,520 Speaker 11: surface of a soft field landing. So a soft field 753 00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 11: landing is off airport. It could be grass, gravel, sand, 754 00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:34,080 Speaker 11: snow exactly so, there could be wildlife wandering around. There's 755 00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 11: barbed wire fences difficult to see from the air. A 756 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 11: regional banking crisis might be brewing under the surface of 757 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,800 Speaker 11: a robust economy, and as we're coming in for this landing, 758 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:46,480 Speaker 11: we are not expecting it to be soft for a 759 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,920 Speaker 11: lot of reasons that I can get into, but we 760 00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:53,040 Speaker 11: also see so many hazards and just the chances that 761 00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,320 Speaker 11: the economy has a soft landing with a hiking cycle 762 00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 11: that's been the most aggressive and forty years, we just 763 00:34:58,800 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 11: find to be very unlikely. 764 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,560 Speaker 2: You know, I heard a great analogy this morning on 765 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 2: surveillance from Laura Rain. She said that the economy is 766 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,239 Speaker 2: like an eighteen wheeler and before the Great Financial Crisis, 767 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:13,440 Speaker 2: when a lot of people still had fixed rate mortgages 768 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 2: or floating rate mortgages, sorry, floating rate mortgages, the FED 769 00:35:17,400 --> 00:35:20,320 Speaker 2: could pull on the brake lever and that would slow 770 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 2: down like ten wheels, so it could bring, you know, 771 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 2: the economy to a stop relatively quickly. But now that 772 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:29,919 Speaker 2: everyone has shifted to fixed rate mortgages, the brake lever 773 00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 2: only affects like three or four wheels, and it's much 774 00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:34,800 Speaker 2: harder to slow this truck down. Does that make more sense? 775 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:37,560 Speaker 12: Absolutely so. 776 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 11: The way that we talk about this is the interesst 777 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,200 Speaker 11: rate sensitivity of the US economy, and specifically, we've heard 778 00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:45,319 Speaker 11: a lot of FED speakers talk about this recently in 779 00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,839 Speaker 11: the form of monetary policy lags. So we know they're long, 780 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 11: we know they're variable, we know it takes time for 781 00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,920 Speaker 11: an adjustment and monetary policy such as the FED hiking 782 00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 11: rates to feed its way through the macro economy, but 783 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,160 Speaker 11: we don't know how long. And recently these Feds SPA, 784 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,440 Speaker 11: especially Waller last month, has said the lag should be 785 00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:06,239 Speaker 11: shorter now because we have forward guidance that feeds into 786 00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 11: rates markets instantly, and the size of the shock will 787 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,720 Speaker 11: make the lags shorter. 788 00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 12: We very much disagree with this. 789 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 11: We think that lags are likely to be longer today, 790 00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 11: not just The mortgage argument is a really good one. 791 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,279 Speaker 11: It's an eight trillion dollar agency MBS market and less 792 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 11: than one percent now is adjustable rate. Prior to the 793 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 11: global financial crisis, it was twelve to twenty times that. 794 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 11: There are also other reasons that make our economy today 795 00:36:33,800 --> 00:36:36,879 Speaker 11: less rates sensitive. One is the Fed's eight trillion dollar 796 00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 11: ballance sheet cushioning the blow of financial markets. It was 797 00:36:39,440 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 11: one trillion prior to the global financial crisis, and also 798 00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,080 Speaker 11: some psychological impacts where the economy really has changed in 799 00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 11: some ways post COVID. One thing that we talk about 800 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:53,120 Speaker 11: here is labor hoarding. If a company had really struggled 801 00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,720 Speaker 11: to get labor during COVID prior to COVID, they're also 802 00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,279 Speaker 11: really hesitant to lay off that labor or reduce that 803 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,279 Speaker 11: labor today. And it's harder to see that in economic data, 804 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 11: but one thing you could look at is something like 805 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,600 Speaker 11: overtime hours, specifically in manufacturing. It's the lowest we've ever 806 00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,959 Speaker 11: seen outside of recessionary times. So what does that tell us? 807 00:37:13,280 --> 00:37:15,800 Speaker 11: We don't really need this labor, but we're going to 808 00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,880 Speaker 11: keep it around, so maybe we just have them working 809 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:19,680 Speaker 11: less and less. 810 00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:22,160 Speaker 12: And then you. 811 00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:25,279 Speaker 11: Might ask, well, why does that all matter? Not just 812 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,720 Speaker 11: because we need to know when these interest rate hikes 813 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 11: are going to impact the economy, but if the FED 814 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:34,040 Speaker 11: thinks that the interest rate impacts are going to impact 815 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:38,279 Speaker 11: the economy sooner, and we think that's not true. That 816 00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:41,760 Speaker 11: means the FED is very likely to keep rates too 817 00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:47,839 Speaker 11: high for too long, over tighten, and that would raise 818 00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 11: the risks of a larger than expected decline in growth 819 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:54,759 Speaker 11: and eventually inflation. It supports our long duration position. I 820 00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,880 Speaker 11: also think that's why this no landing scenario gets spread around, 821 00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,640 Speaker 11: where people are just expecting the lag to be short. 822 00:38:01,680 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 11: It's actually long. They think everything is great, but we 823 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 11: see it coming crashing down pretty hard, just in more 824 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,640 Speaker 11: like a year instead of three months. 825 00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,480 Speaker 1: Man, you guys are brutal out there in la I mean, 826 00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,000 Speaker 1: I know you got writer strikes and actors strikes, but. 827 00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,399 Speaker 2: Man, that's a dour outlook, not just brutal, a big deal, 828 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,880 Speaker 2: a massive attraction. If you're doing a tour around the country, 829 00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:25,200 Speaker 2: do you stop at TCW. 830 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 13: That's me. 831 00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 1: You build around TCW and Capitol Group and everything else 832 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:28,760 Speaker 1: falls into place. 833 00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 4: All right. 834 00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,839 Speaker 1: So are we gonna get any rate cuts next year? 835 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:32,280 Speaker 6: Jamie? 836 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,000 Speaker 12: We do think the Fed will cut rates next year. 837 00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,839 Speaker 11: The market has the Fed cutting rates about halfway through 838 00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:42,360 Speaker 11: the year. The Fed itself has has the Fed cutting 839 00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:43,800 Speaker 11: rates about one hundred basis points. 840 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,360 Speaker 12: Next year, we agree. 841 00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:49,000 Speaker 11: We think that the FED will wait to cut rates 842 00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,359 Speaker 11: until they are very confident that inflation is heading back 843 00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:55,120 Speaker 11: down towards their two percent target. And even though they're 844 00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 11: probably really happy with the progress they've seen in the 845 00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 11: June and July inflation prints, they still have a way 846 00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:04,440 Speaker 11: to go. The last two prints for consumer prices CPI 847 00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:07,320 Speaker 11: was three percent three point two percent. That's one third 848 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:11,120 Speaker 11: of what inflation was last summer and one half of 849 00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:12,799 Speaker 11: what it was even at the beginning of the year, 850 00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:15,040 Speaker 11: but it still has. 851 00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:15,560 Speaker 12: A ways to go. 852 00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,359 Speaker 11: The fed's own forecast of core PC is still three 853 00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,279 Speaker 11: point nine percent at the end of the year, so 854 00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,440 Speaker 11: that's really far above their two percent targets. 855 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,200 Speaker 1: Still, all right, Jamie Patten, that was excellent stuff. We're 856 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 1: going to have you back whether you like it or not. 857 00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:32,480 Speaker 1: Jamie Patten, co head of Global Rates at TCW. Not 858 00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,080 Speaker 1: a soft landing kind of person. Definitely not a no 859 00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:38,320 Speaker 1: landing kind of person, kind of suggesting there's a harder 860 00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:39,880 Speaker 1: landing on the horizon. 861 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:43,360 Speaker 7: F you're listening to the tape Cancer Live program Bloomberg 862 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:47,040 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 863 00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:49,239 Speaker 7: tune in app Bloomberg Dot Com and the. 864 00:39:49,120 --> 00:39:50,319 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Business app. 865 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,160 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 866 00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:59,200 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 867 00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 2: Gaming. 868 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 1: That's just the way of saying the casino business, which 869 00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:06,200 Speaker 1: I love. Charles Gillespie, CEO of Gambling dot Com Joints 870 00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,280 Speaker 1: is Charles, thanks so much for joining us here Gambling 871 00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:11,160 Speaker 1: dot Com. Tell us about this company. What do you 872 00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 1: guys up to? 873 00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,640 Speaker 14: Thanks guys, great to be here. So, Gambling dot Com 874 00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:21,200 Speaker 14: group publishes essentially online comparison shopping websites for the global 875 00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,960 Speaker 14: online gambling industry. So you know, if you're going to 876 00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:28,399 Speaker 14: go to Paris, for example, and you need to book 877 00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,399 Speaker 14: a hotel, you're probably going to go to hotels dot 878 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:33,880 Speaker 14: com or Expedia or something like that, get all the 879 00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,760 Speaker 14: information there at one place, and then book your hotel. 880 00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,880 Speaker 14: We essentially do the same thing, but for online gambling. 881 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 14: So if you want to bet on sports and you're 882 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,799 Speaker 14: in New York or New Jersey or one of the 883 00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:47,120 Speaker 14: other twenty five states where you can bet on sports 884 00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,200 Speaker 14: legally in the United States, you come to gambling dot 885 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:51,280 Speaker 14: Com or one of our. 886 00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:52,600 Speaker 13: Fifty other websites. 887 00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,320 Speaker 14: We also have Bookies dot com, casinos dot com. We 888 00:40:56,400 --> 00:40:59,200 Speaker 14: also on rotewire dot com, and we'll give you all 889 00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:02,480 Speaker 14: that information help you find a you know, the best 890 00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:06,480 Speaker 14: sports book or online casino for whatever your needs are. 891 00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:07,520 Speaker 2: Are you comparing the odds? 892 00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 1: Who's going to offer me the best odds? Or what 893 00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:10,440 Speaker 1: do you what are you actually measuring? 894 00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:12,440 Speaker 4: We do that. 895 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:16,319 Speaker 14: Yeah, so bookies dot Com has got odds comparison then 896 00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 14: and tons of data about sports, but a lot of users, 897 00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:22,200 Speaker 14: you know, they don't even need that level of information. 898 00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:25,120 Speaker 14: They just want to know, Okay, in I don't know Pennsylvania, 899 00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 14: what sports books are even available, which ones are legal? 900 00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,680 Speaker 14: And uh you know of the ones that are legal, well, 901 00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:36,480 Speaker 14: which ones have the best sign up offers, which ones 902 00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:39,040 Speaker 14: have the best customer service, which ones will pay me 903 00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:40,359 Speaker 14: quickly if I win? 904 00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 4: You know. 905 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:44,000 Speaker 14: So in many cases, it's just kind of, frankly, more 906 00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,280 Speaker 14: more basic things that move the needle for for individual users. 907 00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:48,840 Speaker 13: That we supply. 908 00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,840 Speaker 14: But yeah, for the sophisticated users, we've got odds comparison 909 00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:53,520 Speaker 14: and all kinds of great stuff. 910 00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:59,319 Speaker 2: Now, Charles, this is it's kind of a controversial business. 911 00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:04,239 Speaker 2: If you're an adult, you should probably be able to 912 00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,640 Speaker 2: make your own decisions about what you do with your money, 913 00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:10,200 Speaker 2: and if it were illegal, you know, everybody would be 914 00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:13,560 Speaker 2: doing it underground anyway. But did you have any reservations 915 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:18,759 Speaker 2: with using such blunt brand names? Gambling dot com and 916 00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:20,759 Speaker 2: bookies dot com is something that I don't think my 917 00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,399 Speaker 2: mom would want me messing around with. 918 00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 13: Absolutely not. 919 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,120 Speaker 14: I mean, you know, to borrow a British saying, you know, 920 00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:29,919 Speaker 14: they do what it says on the tin. 921 00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,760 Speaker 13: You know, it's very clear. It's it's good branding. 922 00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:34,840 Speaker 4: You know. 923 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:37,160 Speaker 13: I obviously I'm an industry guy. 924 00:42:37,160 --> 00:42:39,239 Speaker 14: I've been doing this for seventeen years, so you know, 925 00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,440 Speaker 14: I've been drinking the kool aid for a long time. 926 00:42:41,480 --> 00:42:45,400 Speaker 14: But I don't think that the industry is controversially controversial 927 00:42:45,600 --> 00:42:48,160 Speaker 14: at all. You know, when you zoom out and look 928 00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,520 Speaker 14: at it from a you know, you look at the 929 00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,920 Speaker 14: whole kind of thing in its entirety. What I think 930 00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:58,120 Speaker 14: is controversial is states that haven't regulated online gambling, because 931 00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,120 Speaker 14: it's not like online galling isn't happening in these states. 932 00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,000 Speaker 14: You said it yourself that you know, all these people 933 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,399 Speaker 14: are playing online regardless. This is a question of whether 934 00:43:05,400 --> 00:43:07,400 Speaker 14: they're at the regulated sites or if they're at the 935 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,480 Speaker 14: Costa Rican and Panama based sites. And you know, you 936 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,880 Speaker 14: can't help the problem gamblers if they're not within the 937 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,560 Speaker 14: regulated ecosystem because you don't know anything about. 938 00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:20,840 Speaker 13: Them, you know. So it's it's it's clearly a net. 939 00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:24,480 Speaker 14: Positive for every jurisdiction that regulates the industry because they 940 00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:27,319 Speaker 14: get they get so many more tools to actually help 941 00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:30,479 Speaker 14: people that need help. And that is the real thing 942 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,600 Speaker 14: that we should all be doing, is trying to do 943 00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:36,320 Speaker 14: what we can to minimize gambling related harm and that 944 00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,600 Speaker 14: that obviously starts with a regulated market. 945 00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:42,799 Speaker 1: How important was it for the industry and Charles for 946 00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 1: ESPN to really to ink their deal? I think was 947 00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:48,680 Speaker 1: it with Pen? I forget was it with pen, but 948 00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,600 Speaker 1: just to ink their deal to really kind of put 949 00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:54,239 Speaker 1: jump into the deep end of the pool with their 950 00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:55,280 Speaker 1: deal with Pen Entertainment. 951 00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,960 Speaker 13: Yeah, I'm not sure they're in the deep end of 952 00:43:58,960 --> 00:43:59,279 Speaker 13: the pool. 953 00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,400 Speaker 14: I'd say they've they're in the shallow end or at 954 00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:03,600 Speaker 14: the kittie pool, you know, they're not. 955 00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:05,480 Speaker 13: They're not actually the ones taking the bets. 956 00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,319 Speaker 14: And what they've done with Penn is they've licensed the 957 00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,640 Speaker 14: ESPN name to Penn, but Pen is the regulated gambling 958 00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:13,960 Speaker 14: operator with all the licenses that's going to do the 959 00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:15,360 Speaker 14: heavy lifting. 960 00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:17,479 Speaker 13: But it is a very big deal. 961 00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,440 Speaker 14: You know, this, this American sports betting renaissance started in 962 00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,680 Speaker 14: twenty eighteen with the Supreme Court decision, and you know, 963 00:44:24,800 --> 00:44:28,040 Speaker 14: ever since that moment, all eyes have been on ESPN 964 00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,439 Speaker 14: and there's been tons of speculation about what they may 965 00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:35,520 Speaker 14: actually do. Disney's, you know, obviously had a very kind 966 00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:37,799 Speaker 14: of conservative approach to the whole thing. They don't want 967 00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:39,400 Speaker 14: to be seen to be in the gambling business. They 968 00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:43,040 Speaker 14: certainly don't have anything to do with online casino. And 969 00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,600 Speaker 14: it took five years, but they've finally done a deal. 970 00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,839 Speaker 14: It's a it's it's a relatively simple deal where they 971 00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,719 Speaker 14: licensed their brands to pen and as they said, Penel operated. 972 00:44:53,320 --> 00:44:56,840 Speaker 14: You know, there's there's other chess pieces they got moved 973 00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,600 Speaker 14: around when Penn announced that deal. 974 00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:00,959 Speaker 13: Uh, you know, they. 975 00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,480 Speaker 14: Had previously acquired our Stool, which is, you know, a 976 00:45:04,520 --> 00:45:09,640 Speaker 14: fascinating media organization and and talk. 977 00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,400 Speaker 2: About controversial David, Yeah. 978 00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:17,040 Speaker 14: There's plenty of things have been said about about Barstool, 979 00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,080 Speaker 14: and I don't want to wade into that conversation, but 980 00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:21,200 Speaker 14: just from a pure media perspective, I mean, they have 981 00:45:21,280 --> 00:45:24,920 Speaker 14: incredible engagement and a lot of the content is highly compelling. 982 00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,280 Speaker 14: You know, it is a it is a fascinating business. 983 00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:32,400 Speaker 14: And and in the in the end, Pen, you know, 984 00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:36,640 Speaker 14: I think realized maybe that's not the best fit for 985 00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,880 Speaker 14: a regulated gambling company. You know, obviously not everybody agrees 986 00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,560 Speaker 14: with everything that that Portanoy says. And you know, I 987 00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:46,960 Speaker 14: think certain gaming regulators in the end were just not 988 00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:51,440 Speaker 14: totally comfortable, right, And and Pen needed to essentially replace 989 00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:52,200 Speaker 14: that partner. 990 00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:53,799 Speaker 13: And that's what they've done. 991 00:45:53,960 --> 00:45:56,359 Speaker 14: And and and Dave Portnoy at the end of this 992 00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:01,800 Speaker 14: is has come out looking like an absolute legend, sold 993 00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:07,120 Speaker 14: barstool for you know, an actual proper fortuit, and then 994 00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:09,920 Speaker 14: and now having gont it back for a dollar exactly. 995 00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,520 Speaker 13: It's it's the stuff that's fun to follow. 996 00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,520 Speaker 1: That, that's for sure. Charles Gillespie, thanks so much for 997 00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,920 Speaker 1: joining us. Charles Gillespie is the CEO of Gambling dot Com. 998 00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:19,960 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. 999 00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:23,880 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Cansur live program Bloomberg Markets 1000 00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:27,360 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 1001 00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,040 Speaker 7: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and. 1002 00:46:29,000 --> 00:46:30,319 Speaker 4: The Bloomberg Business App. 1003 00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,200 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 1004 00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:38,280 Speaker 7: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 1005 00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:42,279 Speaker 2: Now. I have been covering the automotive industry for a 1006 00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,680 Speaker 2: couple of decades. As a result, I kind of know 1007 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:49,080 Speaker 2: everybody that works in the industry. So oftentimes these manufacturers 1008 00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:52,200 Speaker 2: will give me cars or motorcycles to test drive for 1009 00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,520 Speaker 2: a week and figure out, you know, what the product 1010 00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:58,000 Speaker 2: is like, which is I think very helpful in my reporting. 1011 00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,600 Speaker 2: This week, I'm driving a car from a brand that's 1012 00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 2: very close to my heart. It's an Audi qight. 1013 00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:09,000 Speaker 1: E tron Audi qateron. 1014 00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:10,960 Speaker 2: Art, which is a little bit confusing, but basically it's 1015 00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:19,040 Speaker 2: their biggest suv that's powered solely by batteries and well 1016 00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,480 Speaker 2: we have video of it as well, so if you're listening, 1017 00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,480 Speaker 2: you can go to YouTube dot com and just type 1018 00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:27,640 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio and you'll see this vehicle. Now close to 1019 00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:30,759 Speaker 2: my heart because the first car I ever bought was 1020 00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:34,640 Speaker 2: an Audi a four Avant, the station wagon version sure 1021 00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,239 Speaker 2: that was not battery powered, back in two thousand and 1022 00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,680 Speaker 2: that was a two point five liter turbo diesel, which 1023 00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,960 Speaker 2: I loved so much, same color, pretty much, and the 1024 00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,120 Speaker 2: interior felt the same. Everything kind of felt the same. 1025 00:47:46,200 --> 00:47:48,640 Speaker 2: The only difference is the powertrain. I want to bring 1026 00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,239 Speaker 2: in Kyle Stock. He is a senior correspondent for Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 1027 00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:57,320 Speaker 2: He covers the car industry very closely as well. And Kyle, 1028 00:47:57,400 --> 00:48:00,360 Speaker 2: first of all, I'm not sure if you've driven this Audi, 1029 00:48:00,480 --> 00:48:03,279 Speaker 2: but if you've driven almost any Audi, the experience is 1030 00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,399 Speaker 2: really similar. And I think that's what they're going for. 1031 00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:07,440 Speaker 7: Yeah. 1032 00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:11,360 Speaker 5: And then and it's like very techy luxury, right, I 1033 00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:12,799 Speaker 5: mean it's. 1034 00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,920 Speaker 15: They do this very well with the screens, with the 1035 00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:21,080 Speaker 15: digital dials, with the you know, the real time map information. 1036 00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:25,320 Speaker 5: It's a it's a spaceship cockpit for me. 1037 00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:28,120 Speaker 2: It is, but in a in like an understated way. 1038 00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:31,640 Speaker 2: So they have Obviously tech is their thing. I think 1039 00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:35,280 Speaker 2: their motto is for sprung doorche Technique, which who Germany. 1040 00:48:35,520 --> 00:48:38,959 Speaker 2: In German, it means advancement through technology. That's what they've 1041 00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:43,399 Speaker 2: always done. Uh. The you know, everything in the car 1042 00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:46,840 Speaker 2: is luxurious and it's and it's and it's almost perfect 1043 00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:49,799 Speaker 2: in a refined kind of way, not in a flamboyant, 1044 00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:52,200 Speaker 2: like in your face kind of way. You're not drowning 1045 00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:55,239 Speaker 2: in leather there's not a fifty five inch screen, but 1046 00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:57,319 Speaker 2: there's exactly as much as you need, which I think 1047 00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:01,520 Speaker 2: is really cool. But I don't think they've cracked the 1048 00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,839 Speaker 2: whole battery tech thing because the range just isn't as 1049 00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:09,760 Speaker 2: impressive as other electric SUVs and you don't get Kyle 1050 00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:12,200 Speaker 2: to kind of, you know, punch you in the gut 1051 00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:15,680 Speaker 2: acceleration that you do in other electric vehicles. 1052 00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, you're talking about the Q eight. 1053 00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,359 Speaker 2: You were just saying the Q eight e Tron, which 1054 00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,399 Speaker 2: is their new version of the E Tron. Now they're 1055 00:49:22,400 --> 00:49:24,600 Speaker 2: calling it the Q eight Etron, even though it's not 1056 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:28,880 Speaker 2: nearly as big um or as you know, special looking 1057 00:49:28,920 --> 00:49:31,520 Speaker 2: as the gas powered Q eight. But yeah, they just 1058 00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:35,200 Speaker 2: they don't seem to have the get up and go 1059 00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,719 Speaker 2: the other evs have, or you know, three hundred four 1060 00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:39,480 Speaker 2: a mile range. 1061 00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:42,440 Speaker 1: Why is that? I thought it isn't an E You 1062 00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,040 Speaker 1: don't talk about horsepower anymore, do you? 1063 00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,560 Speaker 2: Or do you can talk about horsepower equivalent? And this 1064 00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,720 Speaker 2: one has four hundred horsepower equivalent. Don't get me wrong. 1065 00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,600 Speaker 2: It's not slow, right, zero to sixty in like six seconds, 1066 00:49:54,640 --> 00:49:58,080 Speaker 2: which for a gas car is fast, right, But for 1067 00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,319 Speaker 2: an EV. I mean Kyle, we're looking at you know, 1068 00:50:00,680 --> 00:50:04,320 Speaker 2: the Kia GT ev stix or whatever it's called. The 1069 00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,640 Speaker 2: zero sixty and five seconds, Like, you know, these evs 1070 00:50:07,640 --> 00:50:09,200 Speaker 2: are beating Porschas off the line. 1071 00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:10,360 Speaker 5: Yeah. 1072 00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:12,399 Speaker 15: Well, part of the part of the equation you're seeing 1073 00:50:12,480 --> 00:50:15,120 Speaker 15: here is that QA and a lot of the Audi's 1074 00:50:15,160 --> 00:50:16,120 Speaker 15: are big cars. 1075 00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:17,520 Speaker 5: For one, they're heavy. 1076 00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:20,919 Speaker 15: Evs are heavy, and the content they put in there 1077 00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:25,000 Speaker 15: is heavy. So you know, you have seats that massage you. 1078 00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:27,080 Speaker 15: You have all the heaters, you have, all the electronics, 1079 00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,960 Speaker 15: you have all the you know, the luxury trappings and 1080 00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:33,759 Speaker 15: trimmings and that you know, weighs on a zero to 1081 00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:37,879 Speaker 15: sixty time. But it is notable that, you know, all 1082 00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:42,479 Speaker 15: the Mercedes Electric SUVs are super heavy too, and those 1083 00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,080 Speaker 15: things are quick. The BMW i X, which is. 1084 00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:46,560 Speaker 5: Their new like a bat out of hell. 1085 00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:51,880 Speaker 15: Yeah, that's pretty quick. You can choose your own picture, 1086 00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,680 Speaker 15: you know. The Cadillact Lyric is another one in this 1087 00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:59,600 Speaker 15: class that's honestly, really nice and kind of understated. Like 1088 00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:04,440 Speaker 15: these they they, you know, are subtle with their choices. 1089 00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,160 Speaker 15: It's not all screens, it's not all you know, theater 1090 00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:09,120 Speaker 15: and drama and rushing lights. 1091 00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:12,000 Speaker 1: But Kyle, What are what are the EV manufacturers what 1092 00:51:12,040 --> 00:51:15,160 Speaker 1: are they really marketing here? Or what are consumers finding 1093 00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:15,520 Speaker 1: a board? 1094 00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:16,440 Speaker 2: Is it range? 1095 00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:19,279 Speaker 1: Is it that it's zero to sixty that Matt focuses on. 1096 00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:20,960 Speaker 2: Is it screens? 1097 00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:22,319 Speaker 1: What are they really marketing on? 1098 00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:27,600 Speaker 5: So they're really it's funny it used to be range. 1099 00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,840 Speaker 15: It's then it went to sort of charging time, like 1100 00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:33,480 Speaker 15: high speed charging. You know, you won't have to wait 1101 00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,920 Speaker 15: more than ten minutes. And now it's sort of drifting 1102 00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,799 Speaker 15: into this like no compromise zone, Like you can have 1103 00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:43,000 Speaker 15: the giant CV you want with all the trappings and trimmings, 1104 00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,160 Speaker 15: and it will go far enough and it will charge 1105 00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:47,080 Speaker 15: fast enough, and you just just kind of don't worry 1106 00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:47,440 Speaker 15: about it. 1107 00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:47,680 Speaker 5: You know. 1108 00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:53,600 Speaker 15: Mercedes, like all the Mercedes electrics, except like the really 1109 00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:58,520 Speaker 15: entry level ones have you know, very impressive range figures. 1110 00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,240 Speaker 5: A lot of them are over three or miles, and 1111 00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:02,719 Speaker 5: they're they're frank about it. 1112 00:52:02,760 --> 00:52:04,840 Speaker 15: They say that, you know, if you buy a Mercedes, 1113 00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:08,719 Speaker 15: you don't want to have to worry about range. And 1114 00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:10,840 Speaker 15: then and then there's a there's another slice of the 1115 00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:13,960 Speaker 15: market that is really going after the performance. 1116 00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:17,120 Speaker 5: Like Matt mentioned that that new Kia. 1117 00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,799 Speaker 15: GT Audi has a couple of electric gts that are 1118 00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:23,240 Speaker 15: that are just kind of bonkers, the Porscha, of course, 1119 00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,040 Speaker 15: and and they're thrilling to drive. 1120 00:52:27,680 --> 00:52:29,160 Speaker 2: You know what. The the funny thing is And this 1121 00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:30,800 Speaker 2: is the only time I think I've ever said anything 1122 00:52:30,840 --> 00:52:31,399 Speaker 2: like this in my life. 1123 00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:32,000 Speaker 7: Oh, here we go. 1124 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,880 Speaker 2: Even though it's not the fastest, even though it doesn't 1125 00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,799 Speaker 2: have the most range, this might be the one that 1126 00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:40,080 Speaker 2: I would buy if I were looking for a bee 1127 00:52:40,280 --> 00:52:46,120 Speaker 2: V SUV because the road handling is so nice, you know, 1128 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:50,040 Speaker 2: the air suspension is so luxurious, because it has everything 1129 00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,040 Speaker 2: you need but not a thing more. And because I've 1130 00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:57,040 Speaker 2: grown up with Audi kind of in my blood, I 1131 00:52:57,080 --> 00:53:00,719 Speaker 2: really like it. It starts at seventy five grand, which expensive, 1132 00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:04,319 Speaker 2: but it's not as expensive as you know, a Mercedes 1133 00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:08,239 Speaker 2: or the BMW i X, which is ridiculously expensive. But 1134 00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:10,680 Speaker 2: it is more than the Lyric and certainly more than 1135 00:53:10,719 --> 00:53:11,440 Speaker 2: the Kia. 1136 00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:14,640 Speaker 5: That BMW starts at eighty seven the Lyric. 1137 00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:18,160 Speaker 2: I think it's the Cadillac the Okay, I got you, Okay. 1138 00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:19,720 Speaker 5: Yeah, the Lyric. 1139 00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:25,680 Speaker 15: That thing starts at basically fifty nine thousand, and it's 1140 00:53:25,719 --> 00:53:28,839 Speaker 15: a lot of car for that money. I mean fifty 1141 00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:30,800 Speaker 15: nine thousand, you can get an electric Kia. 1142 00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:34,959 Speaker 2: It's really really like Nissan Ariyah costs about that much 1143 00:53:35,000 --> 00:53:36,520 Speaker 2: when you had the good one exactly. 1144 00:53:37,160 --> 00:53:39,000 Speaker 5: I mean, Cadillac's not making a lot of them. 1145 00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,440 Speaker 15: It costs extra to get all wheel drive and like 1146 00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,200 Speaker 15: you know, the super crew stuff. But that car, there's 1147 00:53:45,239 --> 00:53:47,840 Speaker 15: a lot of value there at that price point. 1148 00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,880 Speaker 1: So, Matt, what do you once you get the what's 1149 00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:51,879 Speaker 1: Missus Miller driving? 1150 00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:57,160 Speaker 2: She drives evolvough XC ninety T eight and she's it's 1151 00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,120 Speaker 2: a hybrid, it's not a fully there and she's so 1152 00:54:00,239 --> 00:54:02,439 Speaker 2: in love with it. She says, you can pry this 1153 00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,319 Speaker 2: truck away from my cold dead hands. Okay, so we're 1154 00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,200 Speaker 2: not on there, but you know, I think it's fine. 1155 00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,759 Speaker 2: I would go hybrid as well right now, because I'm 1156 00:54:12,800 --> 00:54:15,239 Speaker 2: just I don't think the infrastructure is quite there yet. 1157 00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,120 Speaker 2: Kyle for a fully for a full ev and they're 1158 00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,160 Speaker 2: such great choices. The Volvo's a nice one, especially for 1159 00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,919 Speaker 2: my wife. I like the BMW X five hybrid because 1160 00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:28,319 Speaker 2: it actually has the Inline six, the incredibly refined you 1161 00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:30,240 Speaker 2: know BMW engine in line. 1162 00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:32,320 Speaker 1: Six that's an internal combustion engine. 1163 00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:35,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, but Inline six and a twenty five kilot battery. 1164 00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:36,160 Speaker 6: So it's got. 1165 00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:40,720 Speaker 2: But what do you think, Kyle about fully V versus hybrid. 1166 00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:44,680 Speaker 15: I'm all in, man, I think it's there. I think 1167 00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,200 Speaker 15: the charging is getting there. You'll see we're doing a 1168 00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:49,800 Speaker 15: big piece. You'll see it in the next week or 1169 00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,440 Speaker 15: two about how much infrastructure. 1170 00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:55,400 Speaker 5: Went in in the past year. Nice and then I didn't. 1171 00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,840 Speaker 15: Five billion dollars is going into charging in the next 1172 00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:01,880 Speaker 15: twelve months from the I administration, not twelve months, and 1173 00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:03,680 Speaker 15: that's probably twenty four months. 1174 00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,839 Speaker 5: But those stations will start popping up. I live out 1175 00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:07,160 Speaker 5: here in. 1176 00:55:07,080 --> 00:55:08,720 Speaker 6: Colorado, so cold weather's a deal. 1177 00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:10,959 Speaker 5: Elevations a deal wins a deal. 1178 00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:15,120 Speaker 15: But I've never I haven't had a problem, and. 1179 00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:16,200 Speaker 5: I think it's getting there. 1180 00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:18,680 Speaker 15: Oh but I'll tell you the Goldilocks rig that I 1181 00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:23,799 Speaker 15: really like, Matt. I just had the Mercedes GL four 1182 00:55:23,840 --> 00:55:26,800 Speaker 15: point fifty E, which is a hybrid and a serious hybrid. 1183 00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:31,640 Speaker 15: So this thing, like standard great Mercedes SUV goes fifty 1184 00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:33,759 Speaker 15: miles on a charge, which to me is kind of 1185 00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:36,840 Speaker 15: a magic number because like, yes, you're hardly for burning 1186 00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:39,480 Speaker 15: gas if you have that kind of range, and you 1187 00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,800 Speaker 15: have the gas if you need it, if you're going farther. 1188 00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:44,200 Speaker 15: I love this car. I don't know if you've been 1189 00:55:44,239 --> 00:55:44,800 Speaker 15: in it yet. 1190 00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,080 Speaker 2: I haven't tried it out. I definitely would would like to, 1191 00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,880 Speaker 2: but for now I've got to give this Q eight 1192 00:55:51,960 --> 00:55:53,680 Speaker 2: E Tron back. And it's a little bit of a 1193 00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:57,120 Speaker 2: bummer because you get in the flashy special cars and 1194 00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:58,960 Speaker 2: they're kind of fun and interesting to drive, but there 1195 00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:01,480 Speaker 2: are also a lot of work. This out eve to 1196 00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:05,759 Speaker 2: me like the perfect car for commuting. It's executive, it's 1197 00:56:05,880 --> 00:56:07,320 Speaker 2: German and. 1198 00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,840 Speaker 1: Everything you like. All Right, Kyle, thanks so much for 1199 00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:11,319 Speaker 1: joining us, and we'll get back to you on This 1200 00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:15,040 Speaker 1: is more car stuff. Kyle Stocks, Senior correspondent, Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 1201 00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:17,319 Speaker 1: What is Matt Miller driving? We're gonna do this more 1202 00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:19,359 Speaker 1: often because it's always fun to talk cars, and we'll 1203 00:56:19,360 --> 00:56:20,719 Speaker 1: get some smart car people on here. 1204 00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:24,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can 1205 00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:27,840 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 1206 00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:31,640 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 1207 00:56:31,840 --> 00:56:33,759 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 1208 00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:36,600 Speaker 1: And I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 1209 00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,360 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 1210 00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:41,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio,