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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome yes to the FED Day edition, the Wednesday edition

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Speaker 2: of Bounce of Power Bloomberg Radio on satellite radio Channel

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Speaker 2: one twenty one and on YouTube, where you.

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Speaker 3: May as well. Dial it up right now.

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Speaker 2: Keep this thing going right through two o'clock because we

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Speaker 2: have a lot of news coming your way in the

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Speaker 2: next two hours.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, FED Day two pm.

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Speaker 2: Our special coverage starts as always at one thirty pm

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Speaker 2: Eastern Time, as we'll send things back to New York

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Speaker 2: for special coverage, and we'll bring you the news conference.

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Speaker 2: I just bumped into Michael McKees down here in the

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Speaker 2: Capitol and on his way to the.

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Speaker 3: FED right now.

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Speaker 2: Now, we're not fooling around today. We start with breaking new.

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Speaker 2: It was Redhead on the terminal. If you're with us

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Speaker 2: on YouTube, you see it on the screen. We're just

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Speaker 2: now hearing from Vladimir Zelenski following his phone call with

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Speaker 2: President Trump. Others, of course on the line, Zelensky Trump

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Speaker 2: discussing partial ceasefire in the call, according to his source,

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Speaker 2: talking to Bloomberg, Zelenski backing the proposal to halt energy

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Speaker 2: asset strikes. Remember we told you this late yesterday on

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Speaker 2: the late edition of Balance of Power. President Trump President Putin,

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Speaker 2: of course on the line together, talking about not a

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Speaker 2: full cease fire, but an energy infrastructure cease fire to

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Speaker 2: last thirty days. The bombing and shooting can continue otherwise,

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Speaker 2: that's at least where we are right now.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: This call was not as long as the call with

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Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin yesterday. It did conclude we can let you know,

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Speaker 2: and we've heard from Donald Trump since then. President Zelenski

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Speaker 2: was speaking earlier in Helsinki, setting the tone if you

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Speaker 2: will for this call.

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Speaker 3: Here's what he.

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Speaker 4: Said, should contacts President Trump today, I will have contact

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Speaker 4: with President Trump. We will be talking to him about

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Speaker 4: the details of the next steps. We've had very good

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Speaker 4: meeting and jetta with our teams, and I think everything

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Speaker 4: has been going well, except for Russia, which is always

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Speaker 4: unhappy when something is going in the right direction. We

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Speaker 4: will discuss the details about the next steps, and I

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Speaker 4: think I will hear from him the details of his

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Speaker 4: conversation with Putin.

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Speaker 3: Fast forward.

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Speaker 2: The truth social Donald Trump, this is thirty one minutes ago,

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Speaker 2: just completed, he writes, not I or we just completed

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Speaker 2: a very good telephone call with President Zelenski of Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Lasted approximately one hour.

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Speaker 2: Much of the discussion based on the call made yesterday

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Speaker 2: with President Putin in order to align both Russia and

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Speaker 2: Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs. Donald Trump writes,

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Speaker 2: we are very much on track, and I will ask

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Speaker 2: Secretary of State Mark Rubio national Security Advisor Mike Wallas

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Speaker 2: to give an accurate descript of the points discussed. The

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Speaker 2: statement will be put out shortly. Okay, we're waiting for

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Speaker 2: that statement now. And I want to bring in Brett Bruin,

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Speaker 2: the President's CEO the Global Situation Room. This is, of course,

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Speaker 2: a voice of reason on the program and a voice

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Speaker 2: of experience, having spent time as Director of Global Engagement

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Speaker 2: in the Obama White House. Brett, it's great to have

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Speaker 2: you back. The way I'm reading the language, this is

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Speaker 2: very curious. The way this is written makes you wonder

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Speaker 2: if Donald Trump was actually on the call or was

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Speaker 2: he watching Rubio and Waltz talk to Zelenski.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of this?

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Speaker 5: Well, it's very Untrumpian and quite frankly, Joe, I think

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Speaker 5: what we witnessed last night, after Trump had built expectations

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Speaker 5: sky high, was you know, a classic walk back. You know,

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Speaker 5: he did not get Putin to sign on to that

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Speaker 5: Jetta ceasefire deal. He did not get Putin to declare

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Speaker 5: that peace was his main objective. In fact, Putin put

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Speaker 5: out what was a pretty alarming list of demands, including

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Speaker 5: that the US the West stop supplying not just military aid,

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Speaker 5: intelligence that Ukraine couldn't even recruit for its military. I mean,

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Speaker 5: this is Putin putting his cards on the table and saying, look,

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Speaker 5: my objectives are the same as when my troops crossed

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Speaker 5: over into Ukrainian territory.

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Speaker 2: Do you have, as the diplomat inside of you, Brett,

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Speaker 2: the ingredients for a peace deal.

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Speaker 3: Here or not?

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Speaker 2: Well?

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Speaker 5: Look, I am always, as you said, Joe, up for diplomacy.

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Speaker 5: I'm always encouraged when people are talking and not just shooting.

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Speaker 5: But at the same time, there is good piece, there

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Speaker 5: is peace that sows the seeds of stability and security,

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Speaker 5: And then there are peace deals that sow the seeds

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Speaker 5: of the next conflict, that worsen existing conflicts, and everything

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Speaker 5: that Trump has been talking about is the latter. He's

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Speaker 5: been talking about seeding ground to to Russia, that incentivizes

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Speaker 5: not just putin, let's be clear about this, but Shijingping,

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Speaker 5: Kim Jong un, and a whole host of other aspiring

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Speaker 5: autocrats to say, you know what, I actually could take

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Speaker 5: some territory from Nepal or from Bangladesh, and that would

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Speaker 5: be really dangerous, really destabilizing.

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Speaker 3: Interesting take on this.

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Speaker 2: You remember the conversation Bread on the campaign trail. I

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Speaker 2: am the only one who can end this war. I

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Speaker 2: will end it on day one Brett. At one point

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Speaker 2: he even said I can do it in an hour.

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Speaker 2: What do you think President Trump has learned in this

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Speaker 2: process so far?

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Speaker 5: Well, I can tell you what the American people have learned,

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Speaker 5: and that is that you know, Trump is boastful. He

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Speaker 5: loves to claim that he is the world's best negotiator,

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Speaker 5: and as someone who spent a lot of time in

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Speaker 5: the situation room, a lot of time on the front

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Speaker 5: lines of crises and conflict, it's just not that easy.

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Speaker 5: And Trump should know better. And the American people, quite frankly,

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Speaker 5: shouldn't have known better when Trump was making these claims,

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Speaker 5: because the notion that you can just waltz into the

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Speaker 5: Kremlin and tell Vladimir Putin we're doing a deal, and yes,

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Speaker 5: Putin will do a deal. He will do the deal

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Speaker 5: that is in Russia's interest. He will do the deal

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Speaker 5: that pockets all of the gains that he's gotten, and

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Speaker 5: that at the end of the day is going to

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Speaker 5: be bad not just for Ukraine, not just for Europe,

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Speaker 5: but for the US because Putin then is going to

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Speaker 5: have his eyes on the Baltics, He's going to have

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Speaker 5: his eyes on Moldova and on other prizes which will

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Speaker 5: create more And we've got a you know, business audience here, Joe,

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Speaker 5: So I'm going to put this in economic terms. It

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Speaker 5: is going to make the economies both of Europe but

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Speaker 5: also the US worse. We're going to have tougher time

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Speaker 5: getting high prices for our goods overseas if Europe is

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Speaker 5: at war. So all of these things, you know, hit

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Speaker 5: pretty hard on American businesses.

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Speaker 2: Can only imagine the conversations being had in the Baltic

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Speaker 2: States right now as we spend time with Brett Bruin.

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Speaker 2: We heard about that call with Vladimir Putin right here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg. Earlier today, Steve Whitkoff, the President's envoy to

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Speaker 2: the Middle East who is involved in every apparently region

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Speaker 2: when it comes to diplomacy, talked about the call, described

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Speaker 2: the call as he witnessed it earlier today on Bloomberg Surveillance.

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Speaker 3: Here's what he said.

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Speaker 6: I thought it was epic transformational all. You know, those

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Speaker 6: are the sorts of adjectives that I use about this call.

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Speaker 6: The president and President Trump and President Putin were in

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Speaker 6: sync with one another. The call was outcome oriented.

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Speaker 2: Brett epic transformational. The fact of the matter is Vladimir

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Speaker 2: Putin rejected a thirty day truce.

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Speaker 3: Isn't that the headline? Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I think Whitkough is spending a little bit too much time.

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Speaker 5: I'm both drinking the Kremlins kool aid. Last night he

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Speaker 5: suggested that this was a conversation between two great leaders

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Speaker 5: committed to peace, you know, overlooking the fact that Putin

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Speaker 5: has been pretty brutal, that has you know, invaded a

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Speaker 5: sovereign country. And then you know that comment quite frankly,

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Speaker 5: Choe is is just you know him channeling. He is

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Speaker 5: inner Trump, and this seems to be a bit of

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Speaker 5: an affliction for those who go into the administration because

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Speaker 5: at the end of the day, we can look at

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Speaker 5: the result, we can look at what actually came out.

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Speaker 5: Trump went into the call with a ceasefire deal that

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Speaker 5: Ukraine had agreed to for thirty days. He came out

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Speaker 5: of it with essentially a nothing burger. He got thirty

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Speaker 5: days for only not hitting energy infrastructure. That, in diplomatic terms,

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Speaker 5: is an.

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Speaker 3: F Wow and f from Brett Bruin.

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Speaker 2: Brett, thank you so much for joining us pretty stock today,

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Speaker 2: the President's CEO of the Global Situation Room, which is

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Speaker 2: why we wanted to spend some time with Brett. He's

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Speaker 2: been on phone calls like this, as he mentioned, He's

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Speaker 2: spent a lot of time in the sit room and

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Speaker 2: his insights are important here. Russia apparently not obeying this

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Speaker 2: ceasefire yet, by the way, as they wait to hear

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Speaker 2: from President Zelenski. We're going to have a lot more

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Speaker 2: on this ahead and a very important conversation. We've lined

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Speaker 2: up a series of very experienced voices for you today,

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Speaker 2: and I want you to hear from doctor Rebecca Grant

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Speaker 2: next She's going to be with us right here at

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Speaker 2: the table from the defense programs at the Lexington Institute

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Speaker 2: where she's vice president. Her insights next on military strategy

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Speaker 2: and the next move for Zelenski and Putin.

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Speaker 1: Here on Bloomberg, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of

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Speaker 1: Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and five

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern on Apple Cockley and Android Auto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon

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Speaker 1: Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa

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Speaker 1: played Bloomberg eleven thirty News for you.

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Speaker 3: If you were with us.

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Speaker 2: At the top of the program, the redhead crossed the terminal.

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Speaker 2: The call has ended between President Trump and Vladimir Zelenski,

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Speaker 2: and we have a little bit of a sense of

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Speaker 2: what they discussed. With more headlines crossing Zelenski. Trump discussed

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Speaker 2: the partial ceasefire and the call that we came out

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Speaker 2: of the Putin meeting with yesterday, Zelenski backing the proposal

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Speaker 2: to halt energy asset strikes. Remember this is the energy

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Speaker 2: infrastructure ceasefire, not the full ceasefire.

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Speaker 3: That Ukraine had accepted.

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Speaker 2: Its about an hour long call, a bit of a

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Speaker 2: curious post on Truth Social. It's hard to tell if

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Speaker 2: the president himself, If Donald Trump himself had a lot

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Speaker 2: of interaction with Vladimir Zelensky. As he says in the

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Speaker 2: post on Truth Social, I will ask Secretary of State

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Speaker 2: Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Michael Walltz to give

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Speaker 2: an accurate description of the points discussed. He says at

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Speaker 2: the top, just completed a very good telephone call with

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Speaker 2: Theleski of Ukraine. No I know we and so I'm

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Speaker 2: curious to hear more. They are promising a statement to

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Speaker 2: read out from the White House, and we'll get that

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Speaker 2: on an official level for you here coming up shortly.

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Speaker 3: We'll let you know what's going on here. And it

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Speaker 3: of course follows all of this.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned the phone call with Vladimir Putin, it

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Speaker 2: was right at this time yesterday we were standing by

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Speaker 2: for the readout on what was a much longer call than.

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Speaker 3: We saw today between Trump and Zelenski.

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Speaker 2: Steve Whitkoff, the President's Special Envoy of the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: deeply involved in this negotiation, spoke about it earlier today

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Surveillance Listen.

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Speaker 6: What was agreed between the two presidents was and it

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Speaker 6: was at President Trump's suggestion that there'd be a cessation

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Speaker 6: of attacks on energy infrastructure from both sides, and civilian

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Speaker 6: infrastructure for that matter, also working towards a black Sea

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Speaker 6: moratorium on hits on naval vessels and freighters carrying grain

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Speaker 6: and things of that sort, and ultimately that would evolve

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Speaker 6: into a full on ceasefire.

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Speaker 2: Okay, but what this does not mean is a stop

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Speaker 2: in the fighting between Ukraine and Russia. In fact, it

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Speaker 2: was a hell of a night in Kiev, as we've

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Speaker 2: learned from reporting. Ajas Franz Prince says Russian forces launched

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Speaker 2: six missiles and dozens of drones at Ukraine overnight and

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Speaker 2: a barrage that authorities say killed one person, damaged too

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Speaker 2: hospitals one hundred and forty five drones. The Ukrainian Air

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Speaker 2: Force says it downed seventy two of them. This is

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Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with a real expert on this,

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Speaker 2: and I'm delighted to say that she's at the table

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Speaker 2: with us here.

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Speaker 3: At Bloomberg and Washington.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Rebecca Grant, Vice president the Defense Programs at the

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Speaker 2: Lexington Institute, Welcome back.

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: I've got a lot of questions for you about what

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Speaker 2: this deal might bring forth. But the reality at the

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Speaker 2: start here is that we do not have a ceasefire,

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Speaker 2: and even this energy infrastructure hasn't been signed, and so

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Speaker 2: the fighting at this moment continues.

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Speaker 7: Yes it does. I think we are on the way

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Speaker 7: to a ceasefire. And the continual pulse of shuttle diplomacy,

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Speaker 7: plus the European discussions about peacekeepers and all that, and

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Speaker 7: the involvement of Steve Whitkoff such an important back channel

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Speaker 7: that tells me there is progress here. But this was

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Speaker 7: a big set of attacks all across Ukraine last night.

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Speaker 3: What do you make of them?

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Speaker 2: The sort of last gasp opportunity that Vladimir Putin might take.

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Speaker 7: Well, Putin still has a taste for war, and remember

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Speaker 7: the Russians say they don't care if it takes till

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty six, Zelensky saying strong as well. Ukraine's air

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Speaker 7: defenses are superb. They did a great job. But at

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Speaker 7: this point neither side is really going to back off

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Speaker 7: militarily until somebody signs on the dotted line, even to

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Speaker 7: do that temporary ceasefire. Now it sounded to me like

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Speaker 7: what Russia did last night was a little bit in

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Speaker 7: violation of what they talked about on the Putin and

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Speaker 7: Trump phone call.

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Speaker 3: Is it?

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Speaker 2: So, do you assume that when you a call like

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Speaker 2: that ends that the other party is going to make

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Speaker 2: good on the deal about to be signed? Or did

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Speaker 2: Putin say you let me know when Zelenski has the

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Speaker 2: pen in his hand.

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Speaker 7: Probably something like that, because I can't imagine Putin couldn't

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Speaker 7: call the Russian Air Force and go, hey, back.

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Speaker 3: Off, sure, right, exactly.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So with that said, he wants a cessation, he

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Speaker 2: wants all US military aid to Ukraine to stop. He's

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Speaker 2: indicated that that is a condition for him to sign

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Speaker 2: the full ceasefire, the full thirty day truce.

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Speaker 3: What are we actually sending right now?

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Speaker 7: Oh, we are sending a lot ammunition, of course, And

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Speaker 7: don't forget, we're also doing the support that's so vital.

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Speaker 7: Ukraine's F sixteen's, they get constant electronic warfare updates. NATO

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Speaker 7: and the US help Ukraine in cyber defense. We do

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Speaker 7: some space assistance to them, so that that's why it

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Speaker 7: can be kind of turned on and turned off. And

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Speaker 7: then of course all the ammunition, whether it's from hei

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Speaker 7: Mars to the smaller weapons type one continues.

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Speaker 2: They're receiving Kaimar's replacement interceptors and so forth on a

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Speaker 2: daily weekly basis.

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Speaker 7: That's right, the pipeline is going. Trump has to keep

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Speaker 7: that going because Ukraine has to stay strong. And actually

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Speaker 7: Trump said himself that no, he wasn't going to back

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Speaker 7: off on eight. He did not promise Putin to stop

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Speaker 7: any aid.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 2: Well, so there are two things here, And it's funny

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Speaker 2: the way you write headlines.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday it was.

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Speaker 2: Putin commits to energy, infrastructure ceasefire. You could also write

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Speaker 2: Putin rejects full cease fire. You could also write Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump and I think you just said it refuses to

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Speaker 2: end US military aid to Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Which one's the most important here?

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Speaker 7: I think right now keeping that military aid to Ukraine.

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Speaker 7: I do think that there's progress. It's going to be slow.

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Speaker 7: Putin is going to haggle every inch of the way.

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Speaker 7: But as Sexuary Rubio said a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 7: you know this, What we have to do now is

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Speaker 7: get Putin to the table metaphorically, and there's a little

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Speaker 7: bit of progress there. But Trump keeping the AD up

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Speaker 7: is super important to getting a good resolution.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure he was asked by Vladimir Putin to stop

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Speaker 2: right during that phone call, to stop the shipments.

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Speaker 7: Who on Earth knows, Yes, who on Earth knows who

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Speaker 7: asks for a lot of things.

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Speaker 3: That's right.

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Speaker 2: A maritime ceasefire would mean what for the Black Sea

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Speaker 2: and for the outcome.

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Speaker 3: Of this war.

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Speaker 7: Oh, this was so interesting because it's part of the

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Speaker 7: possible offer. Ukraine has dominated the Black Sea. They've destroyed

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Speaker 7: forty percent of Russia's Black Sea fleet. Russia had to

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Speaker 7: move their navy headquarters off a Crimea back to someplace

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Speaker 7: safer and with a lot of maritime drones and help

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Speaker 7: from the West, they really run the Black Sea. So

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Speaker 7: this is very much an advantage for Russia if Ukraine

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Speaker 7: would agree to stop, you know, shooting down Russian helicopters

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Speaker 7: over the Black Sea and all that they've been able

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Speaker 7: to do with a lot of help from their friends

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Speaker 7: in the West.

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Speaker 2: To mention attacking that bridge, Ama, we're spending time here

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Speaker 2: with the doctor and some news that I didn't think

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Speaker 2: we'd be talking about here with Rebecca Grant. The President

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Speaker 2: just took the truth social talking about the Houthis in Yemen.

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Speaker 2: We're just reading this together for the first time. Reports

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Speaker 2: are coming in that while Iran has lessened its intensity

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Speaker 2: on military equipment and general support to the Houthis, they

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Speaker 2: are still sending large levels of supplies. The President rights,

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Speaker 2: Iran must stop the sending of these supplies immediately. Let

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Speaker 2: the Houthis fight it out themselves. He says, either way

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Speaker 2: they lose, but this way they lose quickly. Tremendous damage

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Speaker 2: inflicted upon the Huthi barbarians, he writes, and watch how

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Speaker 2: it will get progressively worse. It's not even a fair fight,

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Speaker 2: never will be. They will be completely annihilated exclamation point.

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Speaker 2: Just yesterday he said that anything fired by the Houthis,

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Speaker 2: We're gonna treat like it was fired by Iran.

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Speaker 3: What are we in.

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Speaker 7: For here, Well, that tells me that the USS Harry S. Truman,

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Speaker 7: our craft carrier in the region, is loading ordinance, possibly

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Speaker 7: to do additional strikes. We know Central Command has more

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Speaker 7: targets available, and Trump is said all along that this

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Speaker 7: campaign can go on as long as necessary. But there's

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Speaker 7: another message here. Because Iran supports the Hoodies, but so

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Speaker 7: does Russia. We know there has been Russian intelligence used

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Speaker 7: by the Hoodies to target our US Navy ships and

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Speaker 7: global shipping traffic. So don't forget the hoody message goes

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Speaker 7: to Iran, but it also goes to putin.

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Speaker 3: This is huge.

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Speaker 2: This had to have come up yesterday. And now you start.

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Speaker 2: When you crack the door on something like that, you

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Speaker 2: remind us of how much we do not know about

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Speaker 2: what happened in that conversation, how many layers we're talking

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Speaker 2: about here, how one deal can lead to another, the

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Speaker 2: triangulation that the White House might be involved in. What

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Speaker 2: does this mean for a potential attack against Iran.

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Speaker 7: Well, it means that I think we should see possibly

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Speaker 7: more strikes against the hoodies, and I'd like to see

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Speaker 7: them debilitated. We've done it too hamas to hustle law,

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Speaker 7: but against the hoodies at first. Now, do Iranian targets

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Speaker 7: become legit? You know, there was an Iranian ship that

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Speaker 7: sits in the Red Sea giving targeting information. Is that

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Speaker 7: a legitimate military target? Maybe? What about their oil terminal

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Speaker 7: down in the South. I think it's possible that we

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Speaker 7: might see something, but I would expect to see first

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Speaker 7: a step up against some of the hooty legitimate military targets.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I can't imagine that that's a terribly tall order

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Speaker 2: for our military, our navy and Air force conducting those strikes.

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Speaker 2: What happens if you sink a ship flying under an

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Speaker 2: Iranian flag?

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Speaker 7: Well, interesting question. If it's a legitimate Iranian military target,

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Speaker 7: then you know that's probably within the rules of the road.

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Speaker 7: If they're assisting in strikes legit target.

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Speaker 2: You know what people say, though, that's we're starting to

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Speaker 2: talk about World War three. This is what we have

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Speaker 2: always learned growing up. If you attack Iran, what are

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Speaker 2: you unleashing? Or did we learn better when Iran tried

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Speaker 2: to strike Israel last year?

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Speaker 7: Well, and I think the other thing we've learned is

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Speaker 7: we can't appease Iran, and we know that we can

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Speaker 7: defend against what Iran sends.

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Speaker 2: Out Back to where we started, we've gone a little

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Speaker 2: bit far afield here. And that is, of course the

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Speaker 2: call today with Trump and Zelenski. What's the next move?

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Speaker 2: Is it a Trump putin meeting? Is it all three

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Speaker 2: of these people talking right?

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Speaker 7: Next move is back to Saudi Arabia. I think Steve

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Speaker 7: Wikoff will be going to that. And hey, the real

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Speaker 7: news out of that call is it took place and

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Speaker 7: Trump was happy. What a change from the Oval Office

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Speaker 7: meeting before right, and so the main purpose of this

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Speaker 7: call would have been for Trump and his team Rubio

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Speaker 7: and Waltz to backbrief Zolenski on what was discussed with Putin,

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Speaker 7: choosing what items to talk about, and then seeing where

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Speaker 7: Zelenski stands.

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Speaker 2: We only have a minute left with Rebecca Grant. What

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Speaker 2: is the one thing that Ukraine could do to inflict

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Speaker 2: the most pain against Russia right now?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 7: While to continue holding out in the Korusk region is

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Speaker 7: certainly painful for Putin. He visited himself and Putin hates

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Speaker 7: it when they attacked the Courage Bridge. I don't know

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Speaker 7: what their plans are, but it's Kursk, yes, except for

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Speaker 7: the kurch straight and down by the seas is off.

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Speaker 7: But the number one thing is for Ukraine to remain sovereign,

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Speaker 7: to remain close to the West, and to be a

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Speaker 7: viable country going forward. Bluten's gonna hate that.

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Speaker 2: Wow, well, those are very much in doubt at the moment.

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Speaker 2: I guess we'll see where we are.

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Speaker 3: Would you come back to talk to us again soon anytime?

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Speaker 2: Really great to spend time with you here on Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: doctor Rebecca Grant of course Lexington Institute. As I mentioned

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Speaker 2: here on Bloomberg, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, the fastest

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Speaker 2: show in politics with our Political panel.

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Speaker 3: Next.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us here on the radio and on YouTube

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Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Business News Live.

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Speaker 3: I'll have a lot more ahead.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

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Speaker 8: I'm also interested to see Joe when we get chime

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Speaker 8: in from perhaps more hawkish congressional Republicans who have long

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Speaker 8: been supportive of Ukraine. When do those voices on Capitol

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Speaker 8: Hill actually start to weigh in? Because at this point

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Speaker 8: this is happening at the executive levels.

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Speaker 2: Buy in large and of course lawmakers in their home

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Speaker 2: districts avoiding town all meetings in many cases. So imagine

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Speaker 2: how different that conversation would have been if Congress was

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Speaker 2: in town here.

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Speaker 3: It's a great point.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Well, of course they return next week, and it's

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Speaker 8: going to be an interesting return for the Democratic Party,

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Speaker 8: especially which has had some deep divisions exposed in the

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Speaker 8: effort to keep the government funded beyond the deadline of

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Speaker 8: midnight last week, and of course was in part because

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00:22:32,240 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 8: of a change of heart of the Senate Majority Leader

444
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 8: Chuck Schumer, who decided it was less painful to keep

445
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 8: the lights on than to avert a shutdown or to

446
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 8: have a shutdown that puts some resistance on Trump and

447
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 8: congressional Republicans. He's obviously Cotton got a lot of flak

448
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 8: for that, including from House leadership or those who used

449
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 8: to be yeah, in House leaders.

450
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: Pretty tough words from Nancy Pelosi as the walls start

451
00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 2: to close in he had to cancel the book tour.

452
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 3: Yep, and it's pretty tough stuff.

453
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: She was at a news conference at Children's Hospital in

454
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 2: San Francisco. Get a sense of what the former speaker

455
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: had to say.

456
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 9: I myself, don't give away anything for a non ding.

457
00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 9: I think that's what happened the other day. We could

458
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 9: have in mind who perhaps gotten them to agree to

459
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 9: a third web, which was a bipartisan cr for two

460
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 9: four weeks in which we could have had bipartisan legislation

461
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 9: to go forward.

462
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 8: So in summary, Nancy Pelosi felt that there was another

463
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 8: way out here, a third way that Chuck Schumer did

464
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,680
Speaker 8: not take. But the quote I don't give away anything

465
00:23:44,440 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 8: for nothing, that's right. And this is where we begin

466
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 8: with our political panel. Mar Gillespie is with us Bluestack

467
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 8: Strategies founder and Republican strategist, alongside Democratic strategist Roger Fisk,

468
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 8: former special advisor to President Barack Obama. Welcome to you both. Roger,

469
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 8: as the Demoocrat, we have to start with you, did

470
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 8: Chuck Schumer give away something for nothing? And he's certainly

471
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 8: getting a whole lot of something in return for that

472
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 8: decision he is.

473
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 10: He's getting a whole lot of incoming fire from his colleagues.

474
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 10: But as we all know, the Democrats tend to be

475
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 10: that circular firing squad. But thank you so much for

476
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 10: having me, and it's great to be here with Mara

477
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 10: as well. Whenever I speak with elected officials, I always

478
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 10: stress that there's two tracks to look at your potential

479
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 10: ascension through. One is leadership, which obviously Senator Schumer has

480
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:36,640
Speaker 10: gone on, and the other is kind of national voice,

481
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 10: which is where AOC has gone for example, Because if

482
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,119
Speaker 10: you're going to go leadership in these situations you often

483
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 10: have to take very institutionalist, very tough votes that are

484
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 10: about sometimes just preventing worse things from happening.

485
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 3: Whereas if you go the track.

486
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 10: Of trying to establish a national voice, you can then

487
00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 10: have a little distance from those things and exercise more

488
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,720
Speaker 10: of a a more of a free voice around them.

489
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 10: So that's a dynamic I think you're playing out. And

490
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 10: I do think that all of these leadership dynamics are

491
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 10: always looking for a moment that is going to crystallize

492
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 10: kind of some circumstances that have been churning below the surface.

493
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 10: People have been unhappy with the last few Senate cycles,

494
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,199
Speaker 10: so I think there's going to be an appetite for

495
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 10: more leadership. And as you're already seeing, for example with

496
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 10: Senator Shats from Hawaii, people are willing to be very

497
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 10: out there in terms of talking about their aspirations when

498
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 10: it comes to the next generation of leadership of the

499
00:25:36,600 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 10: Democrats in the Senate.

500
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 2: Enter Glenn Ivy, the Democrat from Maryland, the gentleman from

501
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,439
Speaker 2: Oxen Hill, deep blue right outside of Washington.

502
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 4: D C.

503
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,640
Speaker 2: Mora at a town hall last night quote, I think

504
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 2: he had a great long standing career, did a lot

505
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 2: of great things, but I'm afraid it may be time

506
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 2: for the Senate Democrats to get a new leader unquote.

507
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 2: How loud will these calls get from other members on

508
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 2: Capitol Hill?

509
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: Will they make a difference?

510
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: They should.

511
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 11: The Democratic Party is in need of leadership, right. They've struggled,

512
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,439
Speaker 11: you know, as it's just pointed out. You know that

513
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 11: first cycle is now without having a strong voice and

514
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 11: a strong leadership presence. And I think Dean Phillips during

515
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 11: the last election presidential election called this out. He said

516
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 11: it's time to pass the torch, and that was refused

517
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 11: to do so until June of last year when Joe

518
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 11: Biden was forced out of the race by somebody like

519
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 11: a Nancy Pelosi, who, by the way, will be eighty

520
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 11: five later this month, who has a net worth of

521
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 11: almost a quarter of a billion dollars, and she's ruled

522
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 11: with an iron fist. She's somebody who has had a

523
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 11: long career but is still pulling the string as in leadership,

524
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 11: but not necessarily putting herself out there as much, but

525
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,360
Speaker 11: she certainly picks her moments. I do think the Democratic

526
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 11: Party needs to find its own identity again and decide

527
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 11: what their fight is about if it's simply to be

528
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,679
Speaker 11: against Trump, that's obviously not working for them, they need

529
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 11: to be for something as well. And I just think

530
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 11: that this superiority complex that we've seen play out isn't

531
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 11: going to be helpful and it isn't really resonating with voters.

532
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 11: So this point, I think the calls for new leadership

533
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 11: and new direction is going to be louder and louder well.

534
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 8: And this obviously stands in contrast to something Joe was

535
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 8: alluding to earlier, which is that you currently have Republican

536
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 8: members of Congress who are holding town halls back home

537
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 8: in their districts and essentially getting shouted out of these

538
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 8: places where they are speaking. We saw that most recently

539
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 8: with Chuck Edwards of North Carolina, but there have been

540
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 8: numerous other examples. Are Democrats doing Republicans a huge favor

541
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 8: here Moura by having an unorganized opposition to something that

542
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 8: clearly is a vulnerability for the people currently in the majority.

543
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 11: They're certainly not helping themselves. But yes, I think there

544
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,840
Speaker 11: is going to be ripe opportunities for Democrats to point

545
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 11: out the failures, perhaps of what was promised to them

546
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 11: at the twenty twenty four election and what's not being delivered,

547
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 11: but instead they can't find that voice, they can't find

548
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 11: that path because they don't have leadership. And again, like

549
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 11: I said, they've kind of operated from this moral superiority

550
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 11: standpoint that isn't resonating and it comes across as arrogant,

551
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 11: and so at the end of the day, voters feel

552
00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 11: very left behind. They feel very very dissatisfied with their government.

553
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 11: And I think that you're seeing a lot more people

554
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 11: who don't feel as though they belong to either party.

555
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,080
Speaker 11: And we saw it kind of in the last election

556
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 11: as well, this political homelessness that we're watching play out.

557
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 11: And I don't know that either party is doing a

558
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 11: good job of explaining I'm actually here for you, and

559
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 11: here's how I'm going to do that for you. Here's how,

560
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,680
Speaker 11: here's why, and here's how. We're not seeing that. And

561
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 11: I think as we get closer to the midterms, that's

562
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,959
Speaker 11: going to be a bigger problem for both parties. Truly.

563
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 2: Well, let's name names here, Roger, because it's you know,

564
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 2: it's easy to talk about kicking somebody out, it's a

565
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 2: lot more difficult to replace them with someone who can

566
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: get the support of the Democratic Caucus.

567
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 3: Everyone's looking at AOC.

568
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,360
Speaker 2: This is the whole conversation right now in Washington, which

569
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,880
Speaker 2: leads me to believe that that may not be very likely.

570
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: The conventional wisdom is rarely the direction we're going in here.

571
00:28:58,560 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 3: Let's be honest.

572
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer is going to be sitting in that chamber

573
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: a couple of years from that, wasn't he.

574
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 10: I don't know that that's as clear a certainty as

575
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 10: you might think. We live in an age and you

576
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 10: can look at everything from the Iowa Caucus, for example,

577
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 10: which at least on the Democratic side, it's all but

578
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 10: completely toppled. Where anyone who thinks that there's some fixed

579
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 10: cultural icon that's impervious to the trade winds I think

580
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 10: doesn't realize how rapid the change can be in this

581
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 10: particular day and age. And so I think it wouldn't

582
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 10: take much for someone to come out and declare a

583
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 10: candidacy now, for example, and then for concurrent with Senator

584
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 10: Schumer being primary as another example, to bring about a

585
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 10: situation where he himself shows himself the door. And that's

586
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 10: just the era that we live in, the age of

587
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 10: cultural icons being able to withstand attack after attack after

588
00:29:58,440 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 10: attack is over.

589
00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 8: Well, so when we consider the battles that are still ahead,

590
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 8: Knowing Congress will be coming back into session next week, Roger,

591
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 8: they're expected, at least on the Republican side, to start

592
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 8: dealing immediately with budget reconciliation, and that whatever that architecture

593
00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 8: ultimately is going to look like, what does Chuck Schumer

594
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 8: or Democrats as a whole need to do to counter that?

595
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 8: Knowing that it's expected to be a party line thing,

596
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 8: they don't really have a role.

597
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, being in the minority in either chamber

598
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 10: is very, very difficult. There's the there's the performative nature,

599
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 10: as we've seen in committees like the Judiciary or Oversight, where,

600
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 10: for example, you could make some headway with Chairman Comer

601
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 10: being so concerned about Hunter Biden and his connections with China,

602
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,760
Speaker 10: and then here you have the same Oversight committee absolutely

603
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 10: refusing to bring mister Musk in front of it, who's

604
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 10: having a much larger material impact on the trajectory of

605
00:30:56,400 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 10: this country and by any measure, has much more business

606
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,479
Speaker 10: dealings with China than possibly any other human being alive.

607
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: So they can make some.

608
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 10: Headway in those performative levels, but and then and then

609
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 10: trying to compile the resistance into some kind of not

610
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 10: just an opposition as a as a reactive but weave

611
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 10: it into some larger fighting for people in a kitchen

612
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 10: table sense, very similar to how Senator Slotkin did the

613
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 10: response to the Address to the Nation. That's I think

614
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 10: the challenge that's ahead of the Democrats for the remainder

615
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 10: of the year and on into next year.

616
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 3: That's Roger Fisk. She is Mora A.

617
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 2: Gillespie, great panels today. Thank you so much both for

618
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: the insights of it. Thanks for listening to the Balance

619
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 2: of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

620
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

621
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

622
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 2: at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg car