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Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. It's the Betting Pros College Football Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Scott Boglin. Follow me on the Twitter

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Speaker 1: at Boglin Sports and I'm joined every week. Check us

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Speaker 1: out please for twenty twenty two. Its gonna be a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun. Thor and Nystrom. We did a Week

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Speaker 1: zero show last week. Week zero was Week zero. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot of unexpected, a lot of things that we're

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Speaker 1: eye rolling and Nebraska disappointing, which is right on. That's

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Speaker 1: how you know it's a college football season here. You

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Speaker 1: follow him on the Twitter at thor ku Thor. Are

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Speaker 1: you ready for Week one? The official real Week one?

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Speaker 1: Are you ready to rock?

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Speaker 2: I am yeah, And we have we have a full

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Speaker 2: offering these next coming three days.

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Speaker 3: You know, we have.

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Speaker 2: We have a bigger Thursday slate than we we're gonna

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Speaker 2: get most for most of the season.

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Speaker 3: We have a bunch of games on Friday.

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Speaker 2: It looks like five different FBS versus FBS games on Friday,

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Speaker 2: and then we have the first sort of full slate

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Speaker 2: of Saturday games. So yeah, I couldn't be more excited.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we are pumped and ready to go here. So

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Speaker 1: just so you guys know, the structure of this show.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about the Thursday Friday game, then we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about the five biggest matchups of the week,

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Speaker 1: and then we're gonna give you Thor's favorite pick. So

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Speaker 1: let's just dive in on these Thursday games. Store. I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna lay out just a couple of the games that

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Speaker 1: I see on your sheet that you have big differences

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Speaker 1: in differences of five points or more. You like pitt

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Speaker 1: minus is seven and a half versus West Virginia in

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Speaker 1: the Backyard Brawl. You like Michigan State minus the twenty

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Speaker 1: against Western Michigan. You like Louisiana Tech plus the nineteen

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Speaker 1: and a half at Missouri, And you like I believe

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Speaker 1: Illinois plus the three and a half against Indiana. So

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Speaker 1: what is it about these games in particular that you

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Speaker 1: like against the spread here for this week?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the Backyard Brawl first, that's one of the

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Speaker 2: biggest overlays that I have of any game this week.

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Speaker 2: I have my numbers have pitt as minus seventeen and

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Speaker 2: a half point favorites. West Virginia lost a lot over

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Speaker 2: the offseason on defense, and the defense has been the

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Speaker 2: one thing that is dragged their crappy offense into bowl

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Speaker 2: season the last couple of years. Now the defense is decimated.

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Speaker 2: They four starters back only on on there and and

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Speaker 2: in the back half, I think they only have two

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Speaker 2: but combined between the linebacker and the entire secondary unit

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Speaker 2: of starters that are coming back, so their defense is

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Speaker 2: going to be down in comparison to what we've seen

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Speaker 2: the last couple of years. That they made some changes

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Speaker 2: on offense, but I'm not sure it's going to lead

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Speaker 2: to any big, you know, breakthrough. They it was smart

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Speaker 2: getting rid of Parker and bringing in Graham Harrow. You know,

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Speaker 2: I was certainly down with that, but it seems like

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Speaker 2: they think that they could turn JT. Daniels from water

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Speaker 2: to wine, and I'm sort of pessimistic about their, you know,

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Speaker 2: the ability for that to happen.

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Speaker 3: JT.

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Speaker 2: Daniels is the guy who's been run out of his

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Speaker 2: last two stops, and over the last three years combined,

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Speaker 2: he's had like one hundred less passing attempts than he

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Speaker 2: had as a true freshman. So the last three years

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Speaker 2: we just haven't seen him on the field very much.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a lot to ask JT. Daniels to

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Speaker 2: go onto this team that does not have a lot

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Speaker 2: of West Virginia. It does not have a lot of

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Speaker 2: skill talent around them. They lost their wide receiver one

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Speaker 2: over the offseason to Florida State. They lost their starting

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Speaker 2: running back to graduation, and they brought in lynd J.

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Speaker 2: Dixon to be like a committee back, and lind J.

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Speaker 2: Dixon has already left them, So they're their running back

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Speaker 2: room is not very good, their receiving room is not

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Speaker 2: very good. And now you're expecting JT. Daniels to sort

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Speaker 2: of pull everything off. You know, I again not very

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Speaker 2: confident about that.

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Speaker 1: Whereas well, Yeah, because you like Pitt, you like Pitt's

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Speaker 1: offensive side too, you think maybe a little bit has

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Speaker 1: been made too much about picking Madison leaving. I mean,

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Speaker 1: those are two major parts. But you like Slovas, you

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Speaker 1: like Momfeld, So you know it's not really Pitt that

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Speaker 1: you're betting on, your betting against w WVU in this game.

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Speaker 2: Right, Well, yeah, I mean I'm lower on the market

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Speaker 2: than than you know, than on West Virginia, and I'm

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Speaker 2: higher than the market on Pitt. Certainly, their their passing

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Speaker 2: offense is going to go down a bit, you know,

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Speaker 2: losing Pike att In Addison and losing Mark Whipple and

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Speaker 2: losing Brennan Marion.

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Speaker 3: But you know, you mentioned the two guys that you're

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Speaker 3: bringing in and.

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Speaker 2: To replace the you know, the quarterback and the wide receiver,

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Speaker 2: which were pretty solid additions. Like Keiden Slovs was was

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Speaker 2: certainly an above average powerfight starter when he was the

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Speaker 2: starter at USC was one of the reasons why, you know,

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Speaker 2: Daniels got kicked out of there.

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Speaker 3: And then you have that going for it.

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Speaker 2: And then Connat of Mumfield last year was in the

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Speaker 2: ninety six percentile according to PFF of separation gained against

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Speaker 2: single coverage against man man coverage. So he's a really

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Speaker 2: good talent too that I think people might be sleeping

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Speaker 2: on a little bit right now. But beyond that, like, yes,

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Speaker 2: you know again, I'm gonna concede that the passing offense

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Speaker 2: is gonna be down a bit, but the running offense

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Speaker 2: is absolutely going to be better. You know, That's something

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Speaker 2: that Nardoozi wants to get back to. They have a

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Speaker 2: deep backfield rotation where they're all coming back led by

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Speaker 2: Abana Konda, and then you have that and then the

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Speaker 2: defense is going to be better too, and the defense

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Speaker 2: was something created a lot of havoc last year, number

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Speaker 2: two in the nation in sacks per game. They were

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Speaker 2: top five in the nation in EPA against the run.

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Speaker 2: Now you bring back seven starters. They only lost one

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Speaker 2: guy to the NFL, and he was, you know, a

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Speaker 2: late day three pick in mathis you know, one of

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Speaker 2: the cornerbacks in all three levels pitas guys coming back.

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Speaker 2: They finished number twenty nine sp plus and defense last year.

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Speaker 2: They absolutely should be at least top twenty five this

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Speaker 2: year and maybe even top twenty. So my argument with

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Speaker 2: Pitt is, yes, you're losing the trump card, absolutely, but

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Speaker 2: you know again it's not going to fall as much

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Speaker 2: as people think with that, and there's two other metrics

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Speaker 2: that are absolutely going to tick up. So I think

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Speaker 2: they're closer to last year probably than the market. That

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Speaker 2: explains my overlay on this game.

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Speaker 1: How about the other three games the Michigan State by twenty,

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Speaker 1: Louisiana Tech plus the nineteen and a half, and Illinois

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Speaker 1: plus the three and a half or I might have

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Speaker 1: already fallen to three there. What's your favorite out of

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Speaker 1: that group?

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Speaker 2: I would say, well, I do like the Illinois one

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Speaker 2: quite a bit. You know, when Thomas and I were

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Speaker 2: doing our show on Sunday night. I had to double

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Speaker 2: check before we started we hit the record button because

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Speaker 2: I thought I had listed it wrong on my sheet

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Speaker 2: of listing Indiana as the three nine point favorite. So

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Speaker 2: I had to go back to the book and check,

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Speaker 2: and indeed Indiana had been installed this as the favorite.

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Speaker 2: I totally disagree with that, especially after you know, we

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Speaker 2: saw Illinois open the season last week was very, very

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Speaker 2: impressive against against Wyoming in Indiana. On the other side,

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Speaker 2: I don't I don't see how you you think that

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Speaker 2: they're gonna tick up in a similar way last year

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Speaker 2: Penis got injured pretty early into the season, you know,

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Speaker 2: and then the offense just spiraled down the drain after that.

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Speaker 2: But but now you don't even have Pennix anymore, even

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Speaker 2: the possibility of him. He transferred to Washington. The guy

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Speaker 2: that they brought into replace and Connor Beaslack was a

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Speaker 2: guy that Missouri did not want back. Indiana's running back

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Speaker 2: room stinks. It's stunk for years. It's gonna stink again.

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Speaker 2: The bigger problem is they used to have a pretty

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Speaker 2: good receiving court where they had like three NFL receivers

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Speaker 2: you know, they had like Fry Fogel and Phil your

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Speaker 2: and Nick Westbrook, you know, and then and then they

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Speaker 2: had Peyton Henders. Shot with those guys for a while.

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Speaker 2: So you had like four NFL talents, you know, that

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Speaker 2: were catching the ball. Now they're down to zero. So

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Speaker 2: you have problems with the skills. You have problems with

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Speaker 2: the quarterback. You don't love the offensive line, and you

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Speaker 2: can't love the defense very much too. Because Tom Allen,

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Speaker 2: earlier on his tenure, had found some some under the

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Speaker 2: radar stars where he pulled them out of Florida and

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Speaker 2: then he had sort of shined off these these low

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Speaker 2: three star recruits and turned them into NFL players. Those

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Speaker 2: guys are all gone now and he has not fortified

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Speaker 2: them by by polishing off some other gems. So I

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Speaker 2: think Indiana is going to be down. I think there's

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Speaker 2: going to be a really tough year for Tom Allen,

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Speaker 2: not sure that he survives it.

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Speaker 3: I like Illinois to win that game.

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Speaker 1: I like both sides of that game. I'm absolutely with you.

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Speaker 1: After we saw the Kirkland brand Wisconsin Illinois smash Wyoming

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Speaker 1: last week, I like the under in this game too, because,

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Speaker 1: like you said, you can see. I think you can

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Speaker 1: squint and see a path for middle of the road

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Speaker 1: offense out of Indiana with all the transfers they brought in.

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Speaker 1: But you can't expect them week one to be you know,

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Speaker 1: going out there and slinging the rock at maximum efficiency,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So I think that, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that this is going to be Illinois. I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be a ugly game. I like

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Speaker 1: the under on it too, So I am absolutely with

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Speaker 1: you on this game. The other games that you liked,

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Speaker 1: either one of those, you have a strong lean towards

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Speaker 1: between Michigan State and Louisiana Tech.

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Speaker 3: Well, I like Louisian Attack to most of those.

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Speaker 2: I think it's just too many points, you know, live

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Speaker 2: this thing is ticked all the way up. It's like now,

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Speaker 2: it's like Missouri minus twenty. It's just too many points.

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Speaker 2: Missouri last year they stunk in almost every single metric

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Speaker 2: except for this singularity of Tyler Batty. He was like

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Speaker 2: the one thing that that team had, and so they

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Speaker 2: just funnel all their touches dame on offense. Well, Tyler

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Speaker 2: Baty's at Baltimore Raven. Now he ain't walking through that door.

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Speaker 2: They signed a guy from Stanford, Nathaniel Pete, who you

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Speaker 2: know did not break out as a star at Stanford.

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Speaker 3: He's expected now to take over running back.

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Speaker 1: And then it banged up too, isn't he Pete? You

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Speaker 1: saw him on the injury report.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we'll see if he ends up playing.

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Speaker 2: And then behind him, you know, which just holdover guys

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Speaker 2: that didn't play much behind Beaty and then at quarterback,

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Speaker 2: you know, they were the team that's left off basil Ac.

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Speaker 2: For this Cook kid, Cook, we saw him a bit

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Speaker 2: at the end of last season. He might be a

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Speaker 2: little bit better through the air, but he takes more sacks.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't appear that his pocket presence is as good

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Speaker 2: as basil Ax, at least right now. So for me,

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Speaker 2: that's sort of a wash. And also I know that

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Speaker 2: Missouri was is not super ballish on Cook heading into

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Speaker 2: this season, despite what they might be telling the media,

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Speaker 2: because every time a transfer, a big time you know, transfer,

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Speaker 2: portal quarterback hit the portal over the offseason, Missouri was

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Speaker 2: rumored to be chasing every single one of them, like

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Speaker 2: you can go down the line.

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Speaker 3: They lost on all of them. They lost on JT. Daniels,

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Speaker 3: they lost on Jayden Daniels.

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Speaker 2: They I mean everybody like you know, they tried and

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Speaker 2: they failed, and they ended up signing Jack Abraham. You know,

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Speaker 2: a guy who's going to be a backup for them,

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Speaker 2: who has been at three This is going to be

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Speaker 2: his fourth different FBS gooal that he's at. But you know,

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Speaker 2: they can't be super confident there. And then Missouri's defense

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Speaker 2: absolutely stunt last year. It was sub one hundred both

223
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Speaker 2: against the run and the pass, so you know you're

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Speaker 2: you're pessimistic about them there. Meanwhile, with Louisiana Tech, they

225
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Speaker 2: have a whole bunch of starters back on defense, they

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Speaker 2: have eight of them.

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Speaker 3: Last year they had one of the nation's worst defenses.

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Speaker 2: But it's going to be better to some degree than

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Speaker 2: we saw last year. The offense should be better as well.

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Speaker 2: You bring in a new coach and Sonny Comby, who

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Speaker 2: is going to be throwing the ball.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's one of.

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Speaker 2: These air rate guys. He brought with them this fifth

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Speaker 2: year senior Matthew Downing from TCU, where Downing is you know,

235
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Speaker 2: not the most physically gifted guy, but he knows the system,

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Speaker 2: the A rate system, which is more about timing than

237
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Speaker 2: beating people with you know, physicality or your athleticism, so

238
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Speaker 2: he should be a pretty good fit there. Louisiana Tech

239
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Speaker 2: has a solid offensive line for the G five. They

240
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Speaker 2: also have a really really good receiving car that goes

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Speaker 2: like four deep. I think Missouri is going to have

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Speaker 2: problems stopping them from moving the ball. You could probably

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Speaker 2: say the same on the other side, but I think

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Speaker 2: that this is a game where it is going to

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Speaker 2: stay within the twenty points.

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Speaker 3: I like the underdog to cover in that one.

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Speaker 1: How about some of these over unders here? You also

248
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Speaker 1: like the under in this same game of Louisiana Tech

249
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Speaker 1: at Missouri and or no, you like the over in

250
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Speaker 1: that game, excuse me? And then bot Tech at ODU.

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Speaker 1: I believe you like the under in that game. It's

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Speaker 1: sitting at forty eight and a half right now. The

253
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Speaker 1: Missouri game is sitting at fifty eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: So for Thursday and Friday, those the two games, the

255
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Speaker 1: totals that you like.

256
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Speaker 2: There, Yeah, the my systems I'll put on the Missouri

257
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Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech game is actually seventy three and a half.

258
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Speaker 2: You know, for the for the over under, it's you

259
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Speaker 2: know a lot of those numbers are based on last year,

260
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Speaker 2: and of course, of course Beatty's not back, but Missouri

261
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Speaker 2: is still going to be led by their offensive foot

262
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Speaker 2: for sure. I didn't mention Luther Burton before the five

263
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,839
Speaker 2: star receiver. He's probably going to replace as much of

264
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Speaker 2: Beaties production as whoever ends up being the RB one,

265
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Speaker 2: because they're going to manufacture, you know, just a metric

266
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Speaker 2: ton of touches for Burdon. But he's a true freshman, right,

267
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Speaker 2: so you know, how much can you expect there? And

268
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Speaker 2: then you know, again with Louisian attack the offense. You know,

269
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Speaker 2: I'm pretty bullish on that. Both these defenses stink, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean I would pick that game to go over,

271
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Speaker 2: and then the other one, the old Dominion Virginia Tech game.

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Speaker 2: That one live right now. When it opened on Sunday,

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Speaker 2: the over under was fifty and a half. It's already

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Speaker 2: come down by two points, I believe.

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Speaker 1: For the weather there, right, is that what you were

276
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Speaker 1: telling me before?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's down two points, but it's not down

278
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Speaker 2: far enough. I still like the under at forty eight

279
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Speaker 2: and a half quite a bit. The weather is a

280
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Speaker 2: big part of it. This game is being played in Norfolk,

281
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Speaker 2: on Friday night. It's this weird opening scenario, and the

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Speaker 2: forecast is calling for fifteen miles per hour win in

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Speaker 2: Norfolk on Friday night.

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Speaker 3: That's the point where.

285
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Speaker 2: You know, the data show statistically that the win starts

286
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Speaker 2: to really affect both offenses and starts to suppress scoring

287
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Speaker 2: on once you get over that twelve to fifteen threshold.

288
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Speaker 2: So we have the win going for us in that game.

289
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Speaker 2: We also on the other side with Virginia Tech, that

290
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Speaker 2: you know, the favorite of this game. They've come down

291
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Speaker 2: a little bit. I think think it opened at nine

292
00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:06,719
Speaker 2: and a half or so and now Virginia Seck's down

293
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:08,960
Speaker 2: to minus seven and a half. But they have some

294
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,160
Speaker 2: offensive personnel issues heading into this game. Looks like they're

295
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,120
Speaker 2: starting running back Malachai Thomas is going to miss the game.

296
00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,000
Speaker 2: They have a new starting quarterback in Grant Wells. He's

297
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,880
Speaker 2: working behind a very inexperienced offensive line that has four

298
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Speaker 2: different true freshmen in the ten in the two deep

299
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Speaker 2: amongst the ten guys, so forty percent of their two

300
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Speaker 2: deep at offensive line are true freshmen.

301
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Speaker 3: And then they're running back room.

302
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Speaker 2: Even with Malachai Thomas, you would put it near the

303
00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,760
Speaker 2: bottom of the power five qualitatively, you do the same

304
00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,200
Speaker 2: thing with their receiver room that you know, it's lost

305
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Speaker 2: some guys in recent years. Fuente did not recruit very

306
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Speaker 2: well at those spots in the latter part of his

307
00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:48,679
Speaker 2: tenure there, so the talent's down on those sides. The

308
00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:51,520
Speaker 2: Penn State the former Penn State defensive coordinator that they

309
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:54,080
Speaker 2: hired as college. You'd think maybe he's going to slow

310
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Speaker 2: down the pace a little bit in this one, especially

311
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Speaker 2: knowing where's the offensive line is at, knowing his starting

312
00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 2: running back is, knowing where his receiver room is at,

313
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,360
Speaker 2: and then knowing the wind, you know, and stuff like that.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to have wells trying to

315
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Speaker 2: throw the ball over the yard either, so you know

316
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Speaker 2: you have that. And then ODU last year was a

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Speaker 2: top fifteen defense in the nation in the red zone.

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Speaker 2: You know, they were a ben don't break team, but

319
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Speaker 2: in the red zone they were very good throughout, consistently good.

320
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Speaker 2: So even you know, if Virginia Tech and push the

321
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Speaker 2: ball down the field, we'd be hoping that that old

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Speaker 2: dominion is going to be able to tighten once we

323
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Speaker 2: get into the red zone.

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Speaker 3: I like the under on that game a.

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Speaker 1: Lot all right, let's go to the top five games

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Speaker 1: of the week. Now, these are going to be hand

327
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Speaker 1: picked by me, so you get whatever Bogman thinks the

328
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 1: top five games are. But I don't know if there's

329
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Speaker 1: a really big argument with the ones I picked. Of course,

330
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Speaker 1: the biggest one here Thor being Notre Dame number five

331
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Speaker 1: at Ohio State number two. Ohio State is a seventeen

332
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Speaker 1: point favorite, the over is fifty nine. Do you have

333
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Speaker 1: a good lean one way or the other? Or is

334
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Speaker 1: this just say, hey, let's sit back and watch two

335
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Speaker 1: good teams duke it out early in the season.

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Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna stay away from this one. If I

337
00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:09,520
Speaker 2: bet it, I would bet on Ohio State. My line

338
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 2: on this game is Ohio State minus nineteen point seven,

339
00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,240
Speaker 2: So you know, you potentially have you know, close to

340
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 2: a field goal of line value on that side, if

341
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:18,160
Speaker 2: that's the way that you.

342
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Speaker 3: Want to go.

343
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Speaker 2: But I do have a lot of questions, you know,

344
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 2: specifically on the side of Notre Dame, where you have

345
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 2: some open ending questions where you don't know exactly how

346
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,520
Speaker 2: it's it's gonna shake out. Buckner last year, the quarterback

347
00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 2: who's taken over. We saw him off the bench cheveral times,

348
00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:36,800
Speaker 2: you know where Kelly situationally would bring him in for

349
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:39,560
Speaker 2: jack Con. But now he has to do the whole thing.

350
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 1: You know, he first start no pressure and no pressure

351
00:15:42,760 --> 00:15:47,560
Speaker 1: in the horseshoe against the Buck guys on national television.

352
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Speaker 1: Good luck kid, It's.

353
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Speaker 2: Tough, yeah, and he's going in with a first time

354
00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:53,280
Speaker 2: head coach and Marcus Freeman. Now, of course, Marcus Freeman

355
00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,000
Speaker 2: was on the staff last year and he was promoted,

356
00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,040
Speaker 2: and most of the assistants, you know, we're guys that

357
00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,360
Speaker 2: were also on the staff, so you do have the continuity.

358
00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:03,320
Speaker 2: But Brian Kelly was a guy he knows every game situation,

359
00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,840
Speaker 2: you know, like that. That guy's got a mind like

360
00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,240
Speaker 2: a steal trap for that kind of stuff. Marcus Freeman,

361
00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 2: you know, he's just starting out in his coaching career.

362
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,840
Speaker 2: So we'll see if they lose anything in translation with that.

363
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,640
Speaker 2: But it's obviously a tough opening assignment for them. And

364
00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 2: then you look on the other side with with Ohio State,

365
00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:20,920
Speaker 2: they lost the two first round receivers, but to the

366
00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,640
Speaker 2: receiving course still arguably the best in the nation, top

367
00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:26,160
Speaker 2: three in the nation. Like however, you want to parse

368
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 2: that with Smith Smith and Jigba and now you have

369
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 2: Marvin Harrison, who's going to step up, Egg Buca or

370
00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:32,560
Speaker 2: Julian Fleming.

371
00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 3: All those guys were five star recruits, so many options. Yeah,

372
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 3: they're going to be totally fine. There. They have one

373
00:16:37,800 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 3: of the nation's two best quarterbacks.

374
00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,640
Speaker 2: However you want to parse that sprout against against Bryce Young,

375
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,200
Speaker 2: one of the nation's two best running backs in Bogman.

376
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 2: We'll just say he's number two with a bull because

377
00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 2: Bijon your boy. We can't put him above that butt.

378
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 2: You'd certainly put Trevon Henderson in the top two. And

379
00:16:53,760 --> 00:16:56,000
Speaker 2: then the thing that you're looking at with Ohio State

380
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,840
Speaker 2: to decide is this a team that can beat Alabama,

381
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 2: you know, down the road, because Alabama, I think is

382
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 2: going to be one of the best college football teams

383
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 2: we see him.

384
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:04,000
Speaker 3: For the last decade.

385
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,760
Speaker 2: What the key thing for Ohio State is how much

386
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,120
Speaker 2: is that defense going to improve under Jim Knowles, who

387
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:10,919
Speaker 2: they brought in to try to turn it around.

388
00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 3: Carrie Koombs, who had been the previous guy there.

389
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:15,520
Speaker 2: They did not like what he was doing schematically, he

390
00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:18,640
Speaker 2: had gotten demoted during the season stuff like that. Jim

391
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:20,920
Speaker 2: Knowles is one of the best defensive coordinators in America,

392
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 2: and he has expectations there sky high. They expect to

393
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:25,919
Speaker 2: be a top ten overall defense. You know, you're going

394
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 2: to get the top three offense. So certainly a national

395
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 2: title contender. Certainly one of the best two teams in

396
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,439
Speaker 2: the nation. That's why I would lean towards them. But

397
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 2: this is a lot of points, So, like I said,

398
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:37,480
Speaker 2: I'm probably going to stay away just so I can

399
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:38,240
Speaker 2: watch that one.

400
00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:42,639
Speaker 1: What about number eleven organ on the road? Well, not really,

401
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 1: it's a neutral side game playing against Georgia, but the

402
00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 1: neutral side is in the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta,

403
00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:52,520
Speaker 1: so not really a neutral side game. This is a

404
00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,879
Speaker 1: Georgia home game for real. They are sixteen and a

405
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 1: half point favorites. Fifty two and a half is the

406
00:17:57,240 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: over under look. Georgia lost a lot, but still the

407
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 1: majority of the money here, the majority of the caseh

408
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 1: is on the Bulldogs. How do you see this one

409
00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:08,800
Speaker 1: play out?

410
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's for me.

411
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:13,879
Speaker 2: It's too many points, and that's that's pretty much what

412
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:16,040
Speaker 2: this one comes down to. Like you said, it live,

413
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:18,879
Speaker 2: it's it's it's Georgia by seventeen. My line on that

414
00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,000
Speaker 2: one is like Georgia minus like eleven and a half,

415
00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 2: you know, something like that, or twelve. I guess I

416
00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 2: have Georgia minus twelve. So I do see like five

417
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 2: points a line value on Oregon. You're paying this tax

418
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 2: for Georgia because they won the title last year, but

419
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,879
Speaker 2: then they lost the five defenders in the first round.

420
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,439
Speaker 2: They had ten or twelve guys get drafted overall, and

421
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 2: then you lost the you know, the architect or the

422
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 2: quasi architect of the defense. You want to get more

423
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,840
Speaker 2: credit to Kirby, but in Dan Lanning, who is now

424
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 2: going to be the head coach on the other side.

425
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:51,640
Speaker 2: So Dan Lanning has a lot of information about Georgia's personnel.

426
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 1: Very good point.

427
00:18:52,800 --> 00:18:55,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, And and you know Georgia's offense. You know, they

428
00:18:55,920 --> 00:18:58,480
Speaker 2: lost a couple of running backs, they lost Pickings. Obviously

429
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,240
Speaker 2: this year they're going to go to this this crazy

430
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,639
Speaker 2: tight end heavy thing where they have the three NFL

431
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 2: tight ends and Bowers and Eric Gilbert and darnout well

432
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 2: an aeric.

433
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 1: Gilbert is going to be a wide out mainly though.

434
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 2: He's the replacement for Pickens for sure. Yeah, yeah, the

435
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 2: downfield guy. But yeah, I mean you know, Georgia's offense

436
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 2: is going to look more similar than Georgia's defense. But

437
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 2: Georgia's defense last year was a historically good, you know,

438
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,040
Speaker 2: modern college football, and that's the one that you'd expect

439
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,600
Speaker 2: to fall off just a little bit. It's not gonna

440
00:19:25,600 --> 00:19:27,400
Speaker 2: fall off a ton that They still have all kinds

441
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,680
Speaker 2: of studs. Jalen Carter Ringo is awesome in the back half.

442
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 2: They have all sorts of NFL players still. But you know, again,

443
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 2: last year you're talking about dropping from one of the

444
00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 2: best that we've seen for the last twenty five years

445
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 2: to merely like, you know, a top five defense in

446
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 2: the nation. That's still a decent sized drop off, so

447
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 2: you know, and then on the Oregon side, I don't

448
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 2: think that their talent maybe is as down as as

449
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 2: some other folks do. Like they you know, I'm not

450
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,800
Speaker 2: the biggest fan of bone Nicks obviously, but like h

451
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:57,800
Speaker 2: he is an.

452
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 3: Upgrade over Anthony Brown for sure.

453
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 2: And you know at running back they lost Travis die

454
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 2: but Byron Cardwell the backup, I think he's better.

455
00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 3: You know.

456
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 2: It was sort of like the situation with Devin Auchine

457
00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 2: and Isaiah Spiller, Like I don't really care that A

458
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 2: and M lost filler because I think Auchane is better, right,

459
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 2: and so it's like one of those different things.

460
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 3: Oregon's also pretty good on the lines.

461
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 2: That's something that Dan Lanning can think Mario Cristobal for

462
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: because Mario Crystaball is obsessed with trench play and Maitre,

463
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: he recruited it pretty well.

464
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,120
Speaker 3: So I think that.

465
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: Oregon has enough talent to keep this one within the number.

466
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: And I think that if you want to bet Georgia,

467
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: you just have to acknowledge that you're essentially paying a

468
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 2: five point tax because of what happened last year.

469
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: Right now, I love that breakdown. Dan Lanning a huge

470
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 1: point obviously, like you said, knows the ins and out.

471
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 1: It's not only of the system, but the personnel as well.

472
00:20:49,760 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 1: Let's go to the third game here that I have

473
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 1: number twenty three Cincinnati on the road against Arkansas, number nineteen.

474
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: The current line is Arkansas by six. This is what

475
00:20:58,440 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: I gotta say. I wanted to write up in my

476
00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 1: article Arkansas. I read a couple of things I think

477
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 1: they went my way, and then I read Thor and Thor,

478
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 1: you don't like Arkansas in this game. You like Cincinnati,

479
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,679
Speaker 1: I feel like they're replacing too much. But you know

480
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: what I did with this game was I said, I'm

481
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 1: gonna just stay away. I'm just gonna stay away and

482
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,679
Speaker 1: see what happens Week one. I think if Cincinnati loses

483
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 1: to Arkansas, they're obviously taking a decent step backwards. But

484
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: if they go in and beat the Razorbacks in Arkansas,

485
00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 1: that's a huge win for a team coming off an

486
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,959
Speaker 1: enormous year. But it looks like right now, unlike Georgia,

487
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,720
Speaker 1: you are not paying the Cincinnati tax because they lost

488
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 1: so much in the NFL Draft.

489
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 2: No, you're you're getting You're getting a tax credit. I

490
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: suppose that's the way that we would put it. Yeah,

491
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 2: you know, objectively, you know, this is one where it

492
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,239
Speaker 2: just goes too far the other way. I have this

493
00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 2: line at Arkansas minus one and now live there. They're

494
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 2: now like six point favorite or six and a half

495
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,479
Speaker 2: point favorite in the market.

496
00:21:58,720 --> 00:21:59,880
Speaker 3: I just think it's too much.

497
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 2: Everyone's focusing on what Cincinnati lost, and of course they

498
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 2: lost a lot. You know, they lost Ritter, and they

499
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: lost their own Ford, and they lost Peers. On offense

500
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 2: and then on defense, it was like sas Gardner and

501
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 2: Cook and you know, Maj Sanders, you know, and stuff

502
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 2: like that. You lost a lot of talent for sure,

503
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 2: but they have a lot of talent coming back too.

504
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 2: And at this point you also trust, you give the

505
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: benefit of the doubt to Fickle a bit. But the

506
00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 2: quarterback they should be fine there between Evan Prater, the

507
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 2: four star that they've been developing, and then they brought

508
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,119
Speaker 2: Ben Bryant back, a guy who had originally signed with him.

509
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 2: He went to EMU to escape Ridder Shadow last year

510
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,359
Speaker 2: was really good at EMU, So I think between the two,

511
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: you're gonna find something there. The running back room is

512
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: super duper deep. The running back room actually might even

513
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 2: be better than it was with Ford just being the guy,

514
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 2: Like I said, going Ford Corey Kiner, a local kid

515
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:52,360
Speaker 2: who had signed with LSU initially. You bring him back.

516
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 2: He transfers Van. He was a high four star recruit.

517
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 2: They liked these other couple kids, Monk. They have two

518
00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 2: different guys named Montgomery that they both like. On defense,

519
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 2: They're still going to be solid. Even though you lost

520
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: the stars every single year. I mean, Fickle has brought them,

521
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 2: you know, all up, like the two deep last year

522
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 2: you had starting caliber players all up and down it

523
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,480
Speaker 2: And now Cincinnati just signed a top twenty.

524
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,479
Speaker 3: Five recruiting class out of high school.

525
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: They also signed a top twenty five transfer portal class,

526
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,639
Speaker 2: so Fickle has has done a pretty good job reloading.

527
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: And while everyone's focusing on when Cincinnati lost, curiously with

528
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 2: this matchup, they seem to be ignoring what Arkansas lost,

529
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,639
Speaker 2: you know, and maybe that's just to help them justify

530
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 2: the bet on Arkansas. But Arkansas lost the guy that

531
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 2: they forced all the touches to last year because he

532
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 2: was by far their best offensive player in Traylon Burks.

533
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to figure out a different way to

534
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 2: play offense now because you can't can just move Traylon

535
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:45,359
Speaker 2: all around then just force some of the touches and

536
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 2: then have Traylon take on the entire world. And then

537
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 2: on defense, I think they only have four or five

538
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:53,479
Speaker 2: starters back. They lost a whole lot on defense. Arkansas

539
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 2: is still going to be good that they have kJ

540
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 2: Jefferson back, that they have an interesting running back room

541
00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,199
Speaker 2: that goes, you know, three deep as well, But you know,

542
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 2: because of those losses, you know, I think that they

543
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: fall off a little bit as well. I think these

544
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 2: two teams are closer in actuality than the market is

545
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: giving it credit for.

546
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 1: I like the underdog for sure, the fourth game that

547
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: I put on the list here, and I know that

548
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,679
Speaker 1: we're both on the same side of this because we

549
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 1: talked in our stages, which we will do an hour

550
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: before we record this. It'll be five pm Eastern every

551
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,359
Speaker 1: single Wednesday on the Betting Pros Discord. So please check

552
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 1: us out, come, ask us questions, interact with us. It's

553
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: a lot of fun over there. Number seven Utah minus

554
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: two and a half on the road in the swamp

555
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 1: against Florida fifty one and a half is the over here.

556
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: We're both on the Utah side here. I like Florida,

557
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,439
Speaker 1: and I think that you know, if you look in

558
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 1: recruiting classes and in terms of skill, Florida is definitely

559
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: better than Utah. But no coach has been able to

560
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 1: turn the talent into production since urban Meyer left at Florida.

561
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 1: Kyle Whittingham has been at Utah for a million years,

562
00:24:56,680 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: I think realistically since two thousand and five, So just

563
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: the experience in switching over to cam Rising early in

564
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: the year last year really turned that team around. They

565
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: won the Pac twelve last year. They're not replacing a lot.

566
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: They have a lot of returning production. So I like

567
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: the utes here and I know you do too, Thor

568
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 1: I do.

569
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that, you know, Britain, you mentioned it

570
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,159
Speaker 2: that bringing back a whole bunch on both sides of

571
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 2: the ball.

572
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: The offense is going to be really, really good.

573
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 2: You got Rising back, you have Thomas back, Tavian Thomas,

574
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 2: one of the best running backs in America. You have

575
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 2: four starting offensive lineman coming back, and I think they

576
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 2: had it's either four of the top five or five

577
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 2: of the top six pass catchers as well, So you

578
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 2: bring back a ton on offense. On defense, the big

579
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 2: loss was Devin Lloyd, but they did a pretty decent

580
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 2: job with a one for one trying to swap him

581
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: out by stealing a guy off the roster that they're

582
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 2: about to see in Muhammadiyabati, who they took from Florida.

583
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: We would say that he might have impact, but it's

584
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: more personnel because obviously he got out before the coach change, So.

585
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he should fortify that linebacking corps and Utah

586
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 2: is very strong up front. They always have been under

587
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 2: winning him and they're secondary, which invariably is also very

588
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 2: strong underwinning him. That's going to be very very good

589
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 2: this year as well. I really really like this, this

590
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 2: Utah team, and you were sort of alluding to this

591
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 2: with Florida on the other side of it, where you know.

592
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 3: Long term, I'm bullish on Napier for sure.

593
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 1: I mean this Kay was in November three. Do you

594
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: think you would still have Utah? Do you think you'd

595
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: have Florida?

596
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 2: Maybe I would have to see about where's the offensive

597
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,240
Speaker 2: line that at Florida. You know, it's a unit that's

598
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: been awful for the last couple of years.

599
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 3: How far does that does that jump up? You know,

600
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:30,640
Speaker 3: if at all.

601
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 2: Napier did bring an NFL offensive guard with him from Louisiana,

602
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: this enormous kid, so that they're their offensive line is

603
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 2: going to be a little bit better, but from where

604
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: it's coming from, and now you're facing a team like Utah,

605
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: it is going to have to jump up significantly to

606
00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: compete in the trenches there. And then on defense, they've

607
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 2: been a tire fire for the last couple of years.

608
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 3: So I don't know how how.

609
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 2: You're going to trust Florida with your money against this

610
00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,119
Speaker 2: this Utah team. Where we know all these kids, like,

611
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 2: we know this team is just rock solid. After Cam

612
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: Rising took over for in Week three or Week four

613
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 2: last year, that team was awesome. They were one of

614
00:27:03,600 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 2: the best teams in the nation, you know, for the

615
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 2: rest of the season. And they're one of the few

616
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 2: teams in the nation that has an enormous amount of

617
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: continuity coming back, both with their coaching staff and also

618
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 2: both on the offensive and the defensive sides of the ball.

619
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 3: I really like you taught to win this game. And

620
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 3: some of my numbers, my numbers of Utah minus.

621
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: Six the last game of the top five. And look,

622
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: we could have gone different ways here. We could have

623
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: just thrown Alabama out right, you know, forty one and

624
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: a half point favorites against Utah State. We could have

625
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 1: talked about some of these other ranked teams. But this

626
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: is the game I want because I do think it's

627
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: going to be competitive. It's number twenty four. Houston is

628
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: a four point road favorite against UTSA. The over is

629
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 1: sixty two here thor how do you see this game

630
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: playing out? I kind of like UTSA at home. But

631
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 1: Houston's no joke. They're ranked for a reason. They are

632
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 1: very good squad. I probably honestly wouldn't mess with this

633
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 1: one way or the other. But how do you see

634
00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 1: this one going?

635
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on that. I'm probably not going

636
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: to mess with this one either.

637
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 2: Because both of these teams, you know we talked both

638
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,720
Speaker 2: on this show and then also on the stages that

639
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 2: we did of you have games where you'll be higher

640
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: on the one team than the market and maybe lower

641
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: on the other team, and it can open up these

642
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 2: value windows perceived or real. But you know where it

643
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,360
Speaker 2: does you pull the trigger. This is a game where

644
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: I was lower on both these two teams than the market.

645
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: Over the summer Houston, I'm not sure that people were

646
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: baking enough. You know, you read that the Houston previous

647
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: that people had out there and mostly focuses on the offense,

648
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: you know, and what they brought back, and you know

649
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 2: with Clayton Tune and you have Tank Dell and everything

650
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 2: like that, and you know behind Dana Holgerson, you know,

651
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 2: calling the shots. Yeah, the offense should be pretty solid,

652
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: but I don't think people are focusing enough on what

653
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: they lost on defense, and defense was the reason why

654
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: they were so good last year. They had all the

655
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 2: different NFL defenders that the one kid win and the

656
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,200
Speaker 2: first round Logan Hall, he wasn't the only guy that

657
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: got drafted off that that Houston defense. They they got

658
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 2: kind of cratered out on the defensive side of the law.

659
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 2: So you would think that they're going to go from

660
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 2: like a top twenty defense. Now you're going to regress

661
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 2: back maybe to where you've been previously in the Holgrison era.

662
00:29:07,840 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 2: And then the other thing is they lost the guy

663
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: that they were expecting to be their starting running back

664
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 2: in spring ball for the season. The running back that

665
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: they have is fine, Tejon Henry, but he's more of

666
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 2: an airback, you know, He's not the guy that can

667
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: they handle the whole pounding, so that the running game

668
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: is probably going to be a little bit down.

669
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 3: And then on the UTSA side, you.

670
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 2: Bring back Frank Harris, which is great, and you bring

671
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: back Franklin, which is great too, But they lost the

672
00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: running back, the stud Sincere McCormick. And you know, I

673
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 2: thought that they had signed a kid for Mark and

674
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 2: saw that I thought was just going to take Oliver

675
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: Traylon Smith. But I was reading through the you know,

676
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: all this stuff in camp. It doesn't look like Traylon

677
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,400
Speaker 2: Smith has stolen that job. It looks like he's you know,

678
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 2: not he definitely not starting. This kid named Brady, it

679
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 2: looks like is the guy leading their depth chart. So

680
00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 2: wet to see the way that their their running game

681
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 2: shakes out. And last year, you know, sort of a

682
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 2: magical year for them, where they caught a lot of

683
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,440
Speaker 2: things right and they they won all these different games.

684
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: I don't think that this year is gonna go quite

685
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 2: as well for them. But like I say, I'm just

686
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 2: a little bit lower on both these eians. My line

687
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 2: in this game is Houston minus five point nine. You're

688
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:15,240
Speaker 2: sort of within the window. I'm not touching this one.

689
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 3: All right.

690
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 1: So let's go to your picks for the week. I

691
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 1: listed a bunch of games that you have overlays on

692
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: but thor obviously, I'm just gonna go ahead and soft

693
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: pitch this to you. Give us some games that you

694
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 1: like this week, whether it's against the spread, over unders,

695
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: anything else, any other props that you see that you like,

696
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: whatever it is, this is your time to tell the

697
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: people what you like this week.

698
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: Well, the props haven't opened on my book yet, so

699
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 2: we'll have to wait for the next couple of days

700
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 2: on those.

701
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 3: I'll definitely have some of my Saturday show with when.

702
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,719
Speaker 1: Did those props usually come out? They come out Saturday

703
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: morning or Friday night.

704
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: It's usually on Friday. Yeah, Friday books to put them

705
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 2: on some other bucks. You know, apparently I'm not on these,

706
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 2: but like there's apparently some other books where the college

707
00:30:58,000 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: props come out maybe a couple.

708
00:30:59,120 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: Of days before that.

709
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, you're never getting them before Tuesday at the earliest,

710
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 2: but the earliest one that opens them. But most books

711
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 2: are waiting for Friday to drop the college props. They

712
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 2: probably want to see it the other books, like where

713
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 2: they've gotten bet up and down. Because the books make

714
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 2: so many mistakes with college props. We took advantage. I

715
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 2: think I last week. I don't want to misquote it,

716
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: but I think I gave out four props on the

717
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 2: show with Farrell. I think they went four and oh.

718
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure they win four and O. If they didn't,

719
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 2: it was three in one, but I'm pretty sure they

720
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 2: went four and oh. But yeah, we'll talk about those

721
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 2: then on Saturday. One of the other sides that I

722
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: like a game on Friday night and Bogs. We talked

723
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: about this on the stage. Is I really like TCU

724
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 2: against Colorado?

725
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 3: This is yeah.

726
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 2: And this is a game that Thomas and I hit

727
00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: on pretty extensively on our Sunday show, where it's like

728
00:31:48,360 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: the line look ahead TCU was only opened by the

729
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: books as a ten and a half point favorite. It

730
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,080
Speaker 2: was one of those where it just jumped off the page.

731
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: This is way too low. It has already been bet

732
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 2: up to TCU minus thirteen and a half off in

733
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 2: the you know, forty eight plus hours since I would

734
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: be surprised if that is not over two touchdowns by

735
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: the time we get to kick, and effective might might

736
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 2: get there tomorrow. I mean, you know, this line could

737
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: conceivably be up by you know, around seventeen by the

738
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: time this kicks.

739
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 1: Tc bewhelming. Majority of the money is laying the points

740
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: at plus fourteen for TCU right now. And I like

741
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: this game two thor My thing in this one is

742
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 1: because I talked a lot about continuity, specifically in my

743
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: article that will be out tomorrow on Betting Pros. But

744
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 1: I talked a lot about continuity for week one, and

745
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: you do have a new coach and a new starting quarterback.

746
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: Really for TCU, and a lot of moving pieces. But

747
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: they're playing Colorado. Colorado is miserable. I think the only

748
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: reason it was that low is because Texas A and

749
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: M had a tough time against Colorado when Haines King

750
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 1: went out for them early in the year last year.

751
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: So I think that that may be a little bit

752
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:00,280
Speaker 1: of it. But I just I expect TCU to score

753
00:33:00,280 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 1: points of Colorado too. Not so the world worst P

754
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: five teams, I think Colorado. So I like TCU to

755
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 1: roll in that one. I'm right there with you.

756
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colorado certainly at this point now is near the bottom.

757
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: Of the Power five. Absolutely.

758
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: You know, they've moved into the neighborhood with with Van

759
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: Vandy wants to move out of that neighborhood now, but

760
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 2: Kansas and.

761
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 1: I'd take Vandy after watching them against Hawaii, I tell

762
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: you that much.

763
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 2: I think I would take Vandy straight up against Colorado

764
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 2: at this point too. But yeah, you know, we talked

765
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:31,240
Speaker 2: a lot in the off season about how much talent

766
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: USC added and this historical offseason of the player movement

767
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 2: they USC jump way way up. Colorado is on the

768
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 2: opposite end of the polarity where everyone just went into

769
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: Boulder and plucked every player off the roster that they wanted.

770
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: I think Colorado ended up they lost twenty three guys

771
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 2: in the portal. I believe you know from from my

772
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 2: count that they lost the most players of any other school,

773
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:55,239
Speaker 2: and a lot of them were in there.

774
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: They're too deep. So Colorado is.

775
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: Down even in relation to what they were last year.

776
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 2: And last year they weren't good. You know, they went

777
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 2: four and eight last year. They're definitely going to be

778
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 2: worse this year. And then meanwhile, on the other side

779
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 2: with TCU, you mentioned how much experience they have coming back.

780
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 3: Their top ten in the nation.

781
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,720
Speaker 2: In returning experience that comes back, I believe it's eighteen

782
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:20,719
Speaker 2: total starters. So again totally opposite side USC they had

783
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,759
Speaker 2: jumped to my from the end of last season to

784
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,240
Speaker 2: my power rankings right now, they had jumped thirty nine spots.

785
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 2: TCU is the only team that jumped higher than that.

786
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 2: They actually jumped up forty spots in my power ratings.

787
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: You both have the returning experience, but also with them

788
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: you have the thing where last year's team it regressed

789
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 2: so bad because of two very very specific things. Number one,

790
00:34:41,640 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: the passing offense, which was inefficient and turnover prone. And

791
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 2: then number two the defense shockingly and you know this

792
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,960
Speaker 2: is why Gary Patterson got thrown the door. But they

793
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: gave up like eleven points more per game than they

794
00:34:53,320 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 2: had the previous year, just totally you know, fell off

795
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 2: or whatever.

796
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: This year you have a million starters.

797
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 2: Coming back on defense, you know, like nine or and

798
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: starts coming back on defense that they mathematically they cannot

799
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 2: be worse.

800
00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: They will be better. By definitely, they are going to

801
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: be better than they were last year.

802
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 2: Probably you would you would probably cut it with where

803
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: they're going to be halfway between the two of the

804
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 2: from the year before and last year, but that would

805
00:35:17,000 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 2: cut off like five and a half points per game, right,

806
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 2: so you're almost so now you're you start with almost

807
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: a touchdown head start over every game that he had

808
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 2: last year, and then the offense should be way better too.

809
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: I was mentioning that the passing offense was their issue

810
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 2: last year. Max Max Dugan being the quarterback has been

811
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: the last couple of years. Max Dugan had certainly had

812
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,240
Speaker 2: things going for him. You know, he's a tough runner,

813
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 2: you know, dual threat element to his game, and he

814
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 2: had a big arm. Accuracy is not Max Dugan's thing.

815
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: He Max Dugan struggled very poorly with accuracy. He also

816
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 2: had some pocket presence issues where you'd throw the ball

817
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:50,000
Speaker 2: up for grabs.

818
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:50,439
Speaker 3: And stuff like that.

819
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: You go from that to now you go to a

820
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,799
Speaker 2: quarterback who is perfectly suited for for the air raid

821
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 2: in Chandler Morris, and he's running the Sonny Dyke's air

822
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 2: raid system, which is develop. I mean, like, you want

823
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: to talk about the most quarterback friendly system that you

824
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: can possibly be playing in might be Sonny Dykes's system.

825
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 3: So they should be solid there. TCU's receiving cores.

826
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:12,919
Speaker 2: People don't realize this because of how you know, poor

827
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: Dugan was with the accuracy, But TCU has one of

828
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 2: the best receiving cores in the nation. Quinton Johnson is

829
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,720
Speaker 2: going to go in the first round in April. I believe,

830
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 2: you know, six four two ten receiver on the outside,

831
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 2: runs high four threes, low four fours, tremendous ball scales,

832
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,360
Speaker 2: breaks tackles, you know, he averages.

833
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 1: It is a crime that this dude has fifty five

834
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: catches first, It's crazy, absolute crime.

835
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 2: And he's broken like twenty eight, twenty nine tackles in

836
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: those fifty five catches, so he breaks, you know, a

837
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,400
Speaker 2: tackle every two catches. Basically he can also again, he

838
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: can also make the plays down the field. So he's

839
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 2: a guy that can you can you can manufacture the

840
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 2: touch of short he's going to create for you because

841
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: you can break the tackles and then you can send

842
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: them deep and he can do that stuff too. And

843
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 2: then the three guys behind him are really solid too.

844
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 2: That you know, three other starting caliber Power five receivers

845
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,400
Speaker 2: and then the running back. You know that they had

846
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 2: lost Zach Evans to Mississippi, and Zach Evans, you know,

847
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 2: last year, was probably their best offensive player, a former

848
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: five star guy, but not a very good sister or

849
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, not a very good fit for the air raid.

850
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 3: You know.

851
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 2: He's just you know, the between the tackles runner, and

852
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 2: he can get outside certainly to the explosion. But he

853
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 2: is not good on third downs. It never has been.

854
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 2: Doesn't get throwing the ball a lot, doesn't pass block Miller.

855
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: The holdover running back the TCU has who is a

856
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 2: little bit better on a per touch basis than Evans

857
00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 2: last year. He is the more prototypical receiving back. He's

858
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 2: going to be a very good fit for this system.

859
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,719
Speaker 2: I think TCU takes a giant step up this year

860
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 2: over what we saw last year. And I do not

861
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: believe that Carl Durrell survives the entire regular season. I

862
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: think he's going to get fired in either in late

863
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 2: October or early November, and I think that the poor

864
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 2: season starts out for Colorado here.

865
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 1: There any other games that you have a strong lead on,

866
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 1: whether it's the like I said, the over under or

867
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 1: the spread this week or anything else you have.

868
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:06,480
Speaker 2: See we hit on one random one that I'm sniffing around.

869
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: I kind of like Middle Tennessee plus the points against

870
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 2: James Madison. I think the books are too high on

871
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 2: James Madison. James Madison. They're the one FCS team that

872
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:18,959
Speaker 2: jumped up to the FBS this year and now there's

873
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty.

874
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 3: One teams in the FBS.

875
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 2: James Madison has been very good at the subdivision level

876
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,359
Speaker 2: the last couple of years, and I think sometimes there's

877
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 2: a mistake made of thinking that that's just going to continue.

878
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 3: But if you look back at the former.

879
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 1: More WKU in their system probably has a lot of that.

880
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 1: Because Houston Baptist, the whole coaching staff and quarterback came

881
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,279
Speaker 1: in and said NCAA records last year. So I think

882
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 1: a little bit of that has to do with James

883
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: Madison as well well, Like.

884
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 2: You know, the last like four power FCS teams that

885
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 2: have jumped to the sunballots, like in Georgia Southern, I

886
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: think Georgia State, Appy State, maybe Coastal. You know, I

887
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: think those teams were very, very good in the FCS

888
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: and then their first year in the FBS was was

889
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 2: but as a group there there was an excession but

890
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: was not as nearly as good and it took them

891
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 2: a little time to sort of build up or whatever

892
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 2: was they would have been significantly low. Like the the

893
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,320
Speaker 2: win total that Vegas was projecting James Madison four in

894
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,800
Speaker 2: the offseason, which was shockingly set at six and a half,

895
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 2: despite the fact that James Madison is only playing eleven games.

896
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: You know, again, this is an FCS team. It's good,

897
00:39:33,920 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 2: it's a good SCS team, but now they have to

898
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,400
Speaker 2: jump up to the next level. Middle Tennessee is bringing

899
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 2: back a lot of different guys. That bring back the quarterback,

900
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 2: they bring them back a lot of receivers. They're going

901
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: to a true air rate system this year, which I

902
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: think is probably better suited for what they do.

903
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 3: They've not run the ball well in recent years.

904
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 2: Now you try to move even further away from that,

905
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 2: put the ball up in the air and the offensive

906
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:55,040
Speaker 2: person else.

907
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: Should take to that pretty quickly.

908
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 2: My line on this game is it's jam you minus

909
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 2: half a point, so it's basically a coin flip pick on,

910
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 2: whereas in Vegas it's it's Middle Tennessee plus six and

911
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 2: a half, which just seems like absurdly no credit for

912
00:40:09,200 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 2: what's a decent you know FBS team facing this team

913
00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 2: who is coming up in their first game.

914
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 1: All right, well, I think that is going to wrap

915
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 1: it up for us this week. Obviously great information from Thor.

916
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: Follow him on the Twitter at thor ku and Thor

917
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 1: Once again. We did this last week, but let's do

918
00:40:25,640 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 1: it again since this is officially week one now, can

919
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: you kind of lay out your betting pro schedule for

920
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: everyone so they know when your content is going to

921
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 1: come out and where they can find all of it.

922
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 3: Yeah?

923
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: Sure on on well, the starting on Saturdays, I have

924
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 2: the Kickoff Show with Mike Ferrell that goes from ten

925
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 2: to eleven thirty Eastern every Saturday.

926
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 3: Check that out.

927
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 2: We go game by game through the card, get picks

928
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: on sides, totals, props, dfs, that the whole gamut, so that,

929
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 2: you know, that's a fun one. Sundays to do the

930
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 2: show with Thomas with the early look aheads to the

931
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 2: Lions where I project the spreads and then we see

932
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 2: the biggest discrepancies. And that's a fun show because you know,

933
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 2: it's great to bet late in the week and there's

934
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: certainly opportunities there. The most value you can can get

935
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 2: betting on these things. It's right away on Sunday or Monday.

936
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,120
Speaker 2: And then you'll see that the lines start to shift

937
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 2: and and most of the games that Thomas and I

938
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 2: talked about where you know, I was like this, this

939
00:41:21,880 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 2: line is going to move.

940
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,560
Speaker 1: The game man already to move four points all day,

941
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: It's crazy.

942
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 2: Most of them have moved at least a little bit

943
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 2: so so so definitely check that went out. I have

944
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 2: a column on Mondays where with with the my Power Rankings,

945
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 2: you know every week we update the Power Rankings one

946
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 2: through one thirty one Tuesdays. This year, the column that

947
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: comes out is my my notes, my advanced notes for

948
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 2: the coming weekend. Where you'll see all my adjusted spreads

949
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 2: against the Vegas line, my adjusted totals against against the

950
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 2: Vegas line, and those and then just you know, going

951
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 2: through was there any significant injuries that occurred over over

952
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 2: the last week and that are affecting some of these lines?

953
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:57,799
Speaker 2: Which game should you be betting on early? Which game

954
00:41:57,880 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 2: you know which ones are the line is going to move?

955
00:41:59,440 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 3: Stuff like that.

956
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: And then on Thursdays when I dropped my ten favorite bets,

957
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 2: my side bets of the week, so you can you

958
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 2: can check that that will be out. I don't know

959
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 2: when this episode's coming out, so I don't want to.

960
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 1: Say tomorrow, Thursday, I believe, yes, Okay, then it's coming

961
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 1: out today.

962
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm betting it's my ten favorite bets of the

963
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 2: college football weekend.

964
00:42:16,239 --> 00:42:19,480
Speaker 1: All right, Well, hey, we appreciate the info. As always,

965
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 1: remember you can follow thor at thor K. You can

966
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,399
Speaker 1: follow me at blogwin Sports. I'm of course here. I'll

967
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 1: be doing the Fantasy pros IDP Show with Joe Pizzapia

968
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 1: as well. We already told you about our stages that

969
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,240
Speaker 1: we're gonna have every single Wednesday at five pm Eastern

970
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: to talk college football. I will also have an article dropping.

971
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 1: I believe that it's going to be dropping Friday mornings

972
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:41,400
Speaker 1: for me as well. Talking about my five I have

973
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: right up some of my five favorite bets. I give

974
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 1: you five other ones, so it's ten bets as well

975
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 1: with five write ups on that, so check that out.

976
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:49,920
Speaker 1: You can also catch me on see if you want

977
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: to edge with my guys Nick, Allen, Xavier, Trish, great

978
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 1: dudes over there as well, and all my stuff over

979
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 1: at in this League, in this league dot com. So

980
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: that will wrap it up for us this week. We

981
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: will see you guys next week. Good luck, Buck and

982
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 1: take it easy everybody. M