1 00:00:02,840 --> 00:00:07,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one ninety 2 00:00:07,880 --> 00:00:13,399 Speaker 1: four since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story, 3 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 1: the once a decade US Census has been complicated by 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:23,799 Speaker 1: the outbreak. Virus fears have kept census takers from signing 5 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: up and people from letting field workers into their homes. 6 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: And the count already had plenty of problems pre pandemic. 7 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:45,479 Speaker 1: But first, here's what happened in virus news today. Former 8 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: f d A Commissioner Scott Gottley, who has advised the 9 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 1: White House on its COVID response, said he expects the 10 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: US to experience at least one more cycle of the 11 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: virus in the fall and winter. He pointed to rising 12 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: cases in the South and Midwest parts of the country. 13 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 1: Gottlieb also said he doesn't believe there will be a 14 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: vaccine available for general inoculation until the end of the 15 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: second or third quarter, in that contradicts President Donald Trump's 16 00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: earlier comment that all Americans could be vaccinated by April. 17 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,119 Speaker 1: In an interview on CBS on Sunday morning, Gottlieb said 18 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: he hoped the virus would start to dissipate next summer. 19 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 1: Me and mar locked down most of Yangon Province, which 20 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 1: is home to its largest city. It locked it down 21 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: for two weeks to contain a record surge in coronavirus 22 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: infections ahead of the general elections scheduled for November. Today's 23 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: strict stay at home order bars more than one member 24 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: of a family to venture out for shopping and curbs 25 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: travel to other cities except for essential work. Finally, an 26 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: eighteen billion dollar initiative to deploy a COVID nineteen vaccine 27 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:11,560 Speaker 1: around the world is moving into the next phase, with 28 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty six countries and regions joining the program. 29 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 1: The initial goal of the campaign, called KOVACS, is to 30 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: have two billion vaccine doses available by the end of 31 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,680 Speaker 1: one While China wasn't among the countries having made a 32 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: commitment in a statement released Monday, more agreements will be 33 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: announced later. The program is led by the World Health 34 00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: Organization GAVY, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Coalition for Epidemic 35 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: Preparedness and Innovasions. The US has said it won't participate 36 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 1: in the program, and now, for today's main story, US 37 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: census is about to draw to a close. Bureau field 38 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:07,320 Speaker 1: workers have until September to avoid an undercount. They have 39 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 1: been going door to door to confirm the number of 40 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 1: people living in cities across the country, but pandemic scarred residents, 41 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 1: fraudsters posing as census workers, and a lack of PPE 42 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: are standing in their way. Bloomberg's Jordan's gas Poure has more. 43 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,040 Speaker 1: The Trump administration will in the US Census count a 44 00:03:40,080 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: month earlier than expected. Last week, the US Census Bureau 45 00:03:45,040 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 1: announced that only nine three percent of households across the 46 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: country have been counted so far. That's a problem. Anything 47 00:03:53,080 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: less than a final response rate of may lead to 48 00:03:56,800 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: a flawed head count. As of Wednesday, the bureaus as 49 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 1: it's reached households in only two states, Idaho and West Virginia. 50 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: After first extending the deadline because of the coronavirus pandemic, 51 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: the US Census Bureau will now stop collecting data on 52 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 1: septemb The Bureau says it moved up the date to 53 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: meet its December thirty first deadline to provide figures to Congress, 54 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 1: But the Associate Director of the Census, Albert E. Fontineau, Jr. 55 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: Said in a July webinar that it'll be impossible to 56 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: meet the December thirty one deadline. Since this, experts say 57 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:45,599 Speaker 1: this decision could lead to undercounts among renters, low income people, immigrants, 58 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: communities of color, and rural areas, and may cost them 59 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: billions of federal tax dollars for public services over the 60 00:04:53,440 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 1: next decade. The coronavirus pandemic is comple cating sensus outreach 61 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: efforts throughout the country, but in Arizona, where there's large 62 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: rural and tribal populations, getting an accurate count has never 63 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:12,480 Speaker 1: been easy. Alec Stebon Thompson with Arizona Governor Doug Doocey's 64 00:05:12,520 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 1: office told me in July that the coronavirus has complicated 65 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,719 Speaker 1: since its outreach efforts in the state where many of 66 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: its rural communities don't have reliable electricity and internet access. 67 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: We had all of these grand ideas as part of 68 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 1: this original plan for you know, different events that we 69 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,640 Speaker 1: were going to do and community based tactics, but obviously, 70 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: in the world that we're living in currently, those are 71 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:42,320 Speaker 1: not options for census workers here. Physically ensuring every household 72 00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: gets a census form sometimes means traveling long distances and 73 00:05:46,520 --> 00:05:49,119 Speaker 1: to locations that may not even appear on a map. 74 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: In Census, an estimated four point eight eight percent of 75 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: Native Americans living on reservations weren't counted. Someone like me 76 00:05:58,720 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: who lived, you know, in downtown Phoenix with a physical address, 77 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,600 Speaker 1: I got a letter asking me to respond, followed by 78 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: a few other mailings, and then eventually a paper form, 79 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: whereas in you know, Navajo Navajo Nation, they don't have 80 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: physical addresses, so those forms are physically carried to someone's 81 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: house and left at the door. So the next big 82 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: operation that would take place is non response follow up. 83 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 1: That's when a census employee will show up to a household. 84 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: The Census Bureau strives to hire census takers to work 85 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: in their own communities, because, after all, they know the 86 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: area best. Door knockers began going to homes on July 87 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: six in various parts of the country. Last month, five 88 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 1: hundred thousand census takers nationwide were in the field for 89 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: the first time, knocking on the doors of households who 90 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:54,280 Speaker 1: haven't responded to the Census. Bureau. Officials acknowledged that they're 91 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: losing door knockers because they're afraid of contracting the coronavirus. 92 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: I contacted a number of Sensus store knockers to talk 93 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:04,159 Speaker 1: to them about their experiences. Three got back with me, 94 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,040 Speaker 1: but declined an interview because they were afraid of losing 95 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: their job. Last month, the CDC said in a joint 96 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: statement with the Census Bureau that taking part in an 97 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 1: in person interview with the bureau employee quote should present 98 00:07:17,080 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 1: a low risk of transmission of COVID nineteen. The Census 99 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 1: Bureau says door knockers received online training and will attempt 100 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: to conduct socially distanced interviews with every household that hasn't 101 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 1: responded to the Census. The lasso wear masks, sometimes gloves, 102 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: and have hand sanitizer. After knocking, Census employees will communicate 103 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 1: with residents outside and at least six ft apart. The 104 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 1: bureau says it's protocols have been reviewed by both the 105 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: Department of Health and Human Services and the c d C. 106 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 1: The Census Bureau says it will need to visit about 107 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: fifty six million homes to collect responses in person after 108 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:59,640 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen complicated SINCEUS efforts, the Bureau has been scrambling 109 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: to find employees. Last month, the Commerce Department Inspector General 110 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: said the Census still needs to employ eighty thousand field workers. 111 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: Census officials anticipated needing three hundred thousand field workers by 112 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 1: the end of last month, but at that time had 113 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: only trained and deployed two. Carmen Taylor Jones, Census director 114 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: at the Los Angeles based Black Women for Wellness advocacy group, 115 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: says the Bureau has rushed putting field workers on the ground. 116 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:35,000 Speaker 1: They're scrambling, and I hope that the scramble does not 117 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: lend itself to any compromising of the operation, because this 118 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: thing is so important to our future on so many 119 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:51,600 Speaker 1: different levels that you cannot compromise in. Carmen trained field 120 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,560 Speaker 1: workers as the former Southern California Area regional manager for 121 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: the US Census Bureau. I told people all the time, 122 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: bring your a game. This is a short project. I's 123 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: not gonna last forever. Bring the best that you have. 124 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: And if you do that, and you open up your 125 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: soul to this work, you will walk out of here 126 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: a much better person. Carmen is quick to point out 127 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 1: that this decade since this has been fraught with many issues, 128 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:22,119 Speaker 1: everything from a last minute timeline cut two, partisan politics 129 00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: over a citizenship question and then the Cope nineteen pandemic. 130 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 1: She recognizes that it hasn't been easy for the bureaus 131 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: field workers who now face the final month to confirm 132 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: the number of people living in their city. I have 133 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: so much respect for this operation simply because it is 134 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 1: one something that is for everybody, you know. I tell people, 135 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 1: only people we don't count are those babies that are 136 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 1: still inside of their mother's wounds. Other than that, if 137 00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 1: you're on life support, we count. You. Don't let anybody 138 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 1: rob you of the opportunity to document your existence. To 139 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: throw another wrench into census plans, the Bureau and now 140 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: that in person counting now ended as early as last 141 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: Friday in some parts of the country. This is nearly 142 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:10,320 Speaker 1: two weeks before the count officially ends nationwide. The Bureau 143 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,720 Speaker 1: said in a statement that the last minute change is 144 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: quote based on the rates of completion, self response rates, 145 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: and the number of hours are available workforce can work. 146 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: That was Jordan Gaspoure, and that's it for our show today. 147 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one D and twenty 148 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 1: bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus 149 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: and if you like the show. Please leave us a 150 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 1: review and a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's 151 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 152 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 1: The Prognosis Daily Edition is produced by Tophah foreheads Jordan Gaspore, 153 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: Magnus Hendrickson, and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was 154 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: reported by Jordan Gospore. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our 155 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 1: editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. Francesca Levi is 156 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.