1 00:00:04,840 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. Increasingly Americans are worried 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: about climate change, according to a Gallop Tracking poll, which 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: ask is the seriousness of global warming exaggerated, generally correct 4 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: or is it generally underestimated? In two ten, forty eight 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: percent of Americans said it was generally exaggerated, twenty four 6 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: percent said it was generally correct, and twenty five percent 7 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:33,040 Speaker 1: said it was generally underestimated. In twenty twenty two, those 8 00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: numbers have flipped. Twelve years later, forty percent of Americans 9 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: now say global warming is generally underestimated, with thirty eight 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: percent saying it is generally exaggerated and twenty one percent 11 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 1: saying generally correct. Many points to the record temperatures which 12 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: have caused wildfires and other natural consequences to develop. But 13 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: my guest today has a different take on climate change 14 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: and says that understanding the science is much more nuanced 15 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: than the blaring media headlines would have us all believe. 16 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: So I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, doctor Stephen E. Kunham. 17 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 1: He's a physicist and leader in science policy in the 18 00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: United States. He served as the under Secretary for Science 19 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: in the US Department of Energy under President Obama. He 20 00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:22,280 Speaker 1: is currently a professor at New York University in the 21 00:01:22,319 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 1: Stern School of Business, Tendon School of Engineering, in Department 22 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:29,080 Speaker 1: of Physics, and he's here today to talk about his 23 00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 1: book Unsettled. What Climate science tells us, what it doesn't 24 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: and why it matters. Steve, Welcome and thank you for 25 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:51,920 Speaker 1: joining me on newts World. It's a pleasure to be 26 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: talking with you. So if you don't mind, let's just 27 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,080 Speaker 1: start by talking briefly about your background, both your education 28 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: and training and in dealing with climate science. So I 29 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: was an undergraded Caltech studying physics. I then went to 30 00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 1: MIT and got a PhD in theoretical physics that was 31 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 1: already almost fifty years ago. And like many theoretical physicists, 32 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 1: I've had great fun in poking my nose into other 33 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:23,239 Speaker 1: people's business. And along about the late eighties I got 34 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: exposed to climate science and the course of doing some 35 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: work for the Department of Energy and closely followed what 36 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 1: was going on, at least in terms of the energy business. 37 00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,959 Speaker 1: When I left Caltech in two thousand and four, I 38 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: joined BP, the oil company, as their chief scientist, and 39 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 1: they certainly didn't need me to help them find oil 40 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: and guess they hired me to help strategize for the 41 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:55,239 Speaker 1: company in renewable and alternative energy technologies. I did that 42 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,440 Speaker 1: for five years, learned a great deal about the energy 43 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:03,519 Speaker 1: business and energy systems generally, and then went into the government. 44 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:07,200 Speaker 1: I was under Secretary for Science in the Department of Energy, 45 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: where my job was pretty much the same in the 46 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:14,520 Speaker 1: first Obama administration, helping the government figure out what renewable 47 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: energy technologies it should be investing it. As you know, 48 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: people don't last long, and Senate confirmed appointments after two 49 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: and a half years. I had had enough, and then 50 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 1: I went to New York University, where I've been now 51 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: for just about a decade, working on climate, energy and 52 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: urban issues. I'm curious this for a second, that you 53 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: were born in Brooklyn. I was, and then you go 54 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 1: cost country to cal Tech. What attracted you to cal Tech? 55 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 1: I think there were two things, you know. The less 56 00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,080 Speaker 1: substantial thing is that it was the late sixties in 57 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 1: California was the place to be for young people. So 58 00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: this was as much about the Beach boys as it 59 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: was about Oh yeah, you know, all the music and 60 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: California girls and all of that. I wound up marrying 61 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: a California girl. But more importantly, Caltech had a reputation 62 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: for being the most rigorous place to get an education 63 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 1: in science and engineering, and I wanted to test myself 64 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: against the very best. In retrospect, when you look back, 65 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,000 Speaker 1: having been in both MIT and Caltech, do you think 66 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,679 Speaker 1: that was accurate that there was a kind of unique 67 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:26,119 Speaker 1: rigor to the cal Tech system? There is or there was. Again, 68 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: I've been disconnected with it for a while, but Caltech 69 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: had a rigorous education in science and mathematics. I think 70 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: you can get the same at MT, but MT is 71 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:42,080 Speaker 1: five times bigger in the undergraduate body and is not 72 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 1: quite as strenuous as Caltech was. Now, when you went 73 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: back to Caltech, I noticed that you weren't just a professor. 74 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 1: You actually served as the provost at cal Tech, which 75 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 1: is really a very significant position. Yeah, I was for 76 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: the last nine years I was there the institute provost. 77 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: In academic speak, that means I was second in command 78 00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: at the university, basically the deputy president. I had a 79 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 1: wonderful time helping to shape the program of an institution 80 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: in which I had spent twenty some ideas already as 81 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: a faculty member, but also got to get exposed to 82 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: all kinds of interesting science biology, engineering, the earth sciences, 83 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 1: as well as physics, chemistry, some of the social sciences. 84 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: With all of that background, when did you really start 85 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 1: getting interested in climate and focusing and thinking about climate. 86 00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 1: I think it was in the early nineties. I was 87 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: at that time helping the Department of Energy understand what 88 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 1: it could do with small satellites, which were then very 89 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: avant garde, and one of the things you could do 90 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 1: is measure how shiny the Earth is it's reflectivity, which 91 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,600 Speaker 1: is an important parameter of the climatess. And I realized 92 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: that we could resurrect an old way of doing that, 93 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: which is to watch the moon, and so I started 94 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: a program at about nineteen ninety five of precision observations 95 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: of the Moon, which continued for twenty five years or so. 96 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 1: But I didn't really get deeply into the modeling issues 97 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: or the other data issues until about twenty fourteen, when 98 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,280 Speaker 1: I was asked by the American Physical Society to help 99 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: them recast a statement about climate change. And when I 100 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: did that, I realized the science was not anywhere near 101 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 1: as settled as I had been led to believe in 102 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,560 Speaker 1: talking with the media. But let me go back for 103 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,919 Speaker 1: a second, just because I'm express my ignorance here. What 104 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 1: is it about looking at the moon that gives you 105 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: the data that looking at the Earth would give you. Oh, 106 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: it's a wonderful technique. I wish I had thought of it. 107 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,360 Speaker 1: It was first thought of by a French guy in 108 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: the nineteen twenties. And what you'd do was the following. 109 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,480 Speaker 1: You know, when the moon is close to new and 110 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,600 Speaker 1: so it's a thin crescent, the rest of the disk 111 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 1: is sometimes visible, and that light that is illuminating the 112 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: dark part of the disc is right, that has come 113 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: from the Sun, has been reflected by the Earth and 114 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: is visible on the face of the Moon. And if 115 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: you think about it for a minute, if you were 116 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: standing on the Moon looking back at the Earth, when 117 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,119 Speaker 1: the Moon is close to new the Earth is close 118 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,840 Speaker 1: to fall, and so that light is a wonderful aggregator 119 00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: of the reflected light from the Earth on our half 120 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:46,600 Speaker 1: a global scale. And the technique had been used through 121 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: the nineteen forties, but it gave answers nobody really believed. 122 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: We resurrected it using modern instrumentation in a modern observing program, 123 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: and last year published the results of twenty years worth 124 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: of data and observation. Okay, this is a two parter. 125 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: So on the one hand, you're basically getting a sense 126 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: of the reflectivity of the sun off the Earth by 127 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: looking at how it reaches the moon. Absolutely, that's correct, okay. 128 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: And what does that then tell you? Well, you know, 129 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: the Earth's temperature or the climate system generally is a 130 00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: balance between the sunlight that's absorbed by the Earth and 131 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: the heat that the Earth radiates into space infrared radiation. 132 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:42,080 Speaker 1: About thirty percent of the sunlight is reflected and seventy 133 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:47,440 Speaker 1: percent absorbed. If that thirty percent were instead thirty one percent, 134 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: it would counteract all of the warming that we're talking 135 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,960 Speaker 1: about from greenhouse gases. And so it's very important to 136 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 1: know the reflectivity very precise sleep and how it changes 137 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 1: with time. But can you actually affect the reflectivity or 138 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 1: is that just an observational Well no. People have talked 139 00:09:10,559 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: about geoengineering schemes in which they would spread an aerosol 140 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: in the stratosphere, much like a volcanic eruption does, and 141 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: that would increase the regod collectivity a little bit and 142 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: would counteract most of the warming effect from carbon dioxide. 143 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: You're looking into all this. And one of the reasons 144 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: that I wanted to have you on the show is 145 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 1: that former Vice President Al Gore just made an appearance 146 00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: on Sunday, July twenty fourth on Meet the Press, and 147 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,200 Speaker 1: in the interview, he claimed that the record high temperatures 148 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: sweeping across the US is a direct result of climate change. 149 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:52,959 Speaker 1: Do you think that's true. No, No, we have seen 150 00:09:53,160 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: heat waves before, some of them is strong. It's what 151 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 1: we see today in the US or Europe. It is 152 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: true that the general temperature of the globe has been 153 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: going up by about two degrees fahrenheit over the last 154 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 1: century and a half, since nineteen hundred or so. But 155 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,959 Speaker 1: the heat waves that we're seeing and always have seen, 156 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 1: are the result of the random, chaotic motions in the atmosphere. 157 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: And one signal or one suggestion that they're not due 158 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:33,679 Speaker 1: to global warming is that even as we're seeing high 159 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:39,319 Speaker 1: temperatures in the northern hemisphere, we're seeing wrecked cold temperatures 160 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: in the southern hemisphere winter. Moreover, if you look at 161 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: the temperature map of Europe a week ago, you saw 162 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:52,559 Speaker 1: a big red spot of high temperatures over western Europe. 163 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 1: But as you got into Ukraine and then on into 164 00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: Russia it used to be the Soviet Union, it's very cold. 165 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: And so these are just the result of atmospheric dynamics. 166 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 1: Climate happens over many decades, and the ups and downs 167 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:15,240 Speaker 1: over one year or one summer have very little to 168 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:19,400 Speaker 1: do with what the climate's doing. But the one pattern 169 00:11:19,960 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 1: that I think is among the most sobering is the 170 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 1: degree to which, whether it's the Rhine River or the 171 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: Colorado River, there seems to be in some areas are 172 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 1: really severe drought. Yeah, and let me pick the southwest 173 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: of the US, which I know better. We are in 174 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 1: a drought. I know California data pretty well kind of 175 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: somewhere between wet and dry from nineteen hundred up until 176 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: two thousand, and then for the last twenty or twenty 177 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: five years it's been drifting into drought. That's not at 178 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:56,959 Speaker 1: all unprecedented. We have records from tree rings and other 179 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: data that tell us that there are making droughts that 180 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: happen in the Southwest every five hundred years or so 181 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: that are as severe as what we're seeing now as 182 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: far as we can tell. The records, of course, or 183 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:13,319 Speaker 1: not as good as they are today. As far as 184 00:12:13,360 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: water in the Colorado River, we got a lot more 185 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: people living in the Southwest than we've ever had, and 186 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: I think one really needs to look in detail about 187 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: how that water gets siphoned off in honest to understand 188 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 1: how dry it gets. Okay, so there are practical consequences. 189 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:32,959 Speaker 1: The morement have anything to do with climate change. Let 190 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,000 Speaker 1: me just have to do with the weather. Yeah, absolutely, 191 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: and also how people behave, how we treat our forests, 192 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: where we do development, how we deal with drainage and 193 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: water flows and so on. So it's not just the 194 00:12:47,640 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: climate and your book Unsettled, you say, and I'm quoting you. 195 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,760 Speaker 1: Both the research literature and government reports that summarize and 196 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 1: assess the state of climate science say clearly that heat 197 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: waves in the US are now no more common than 198 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: they were in nineteen hundred, and that the warmest temperatures 199 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: in the US have not risen in the past fifty 200 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: years now. That is exactly the opposite of the news 201 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: media headlines. Yeah, and you know, first of all those 202 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: numbers that I quoted, and in fact have reproduced some 203 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:39,439 Speaker 1: graphs from the official report in the book. Nationwide or 204 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: at least continental US wide the lower forty eight states, 205 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: and it's true, that's what the report says. Now there 206 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 1: are regional differences. The southeast has actually been cooling a bit. 207 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: The warmest temperatures have not been going up across the country, 208 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,200 Speaker 1: although the coldest temperature have been going up, which is 209 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 1: a general behavior that we expect from warming. But you 210 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,200 Speaker 1: know that's what's going on in the US. We have 211 00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 1: the best records, the longest and most detailed records. I 212 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 1: think people certainly believe that temperatures are going up around 213 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: the globe on the land areas, that's pretty clear. But 214 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: again for the US, the data are what they are. 215 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 1: You can go look at the reports. I don't know 216 00:14:25,720 --> 00:14:28,600 Speaker 1: if you have, but I provide all the citations and 217 00:14:28,640 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 1: people can go look it up for themselves. So one 218 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: of the things I got involved I taught in the 219 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: second Earth Day and I became the coordinator of an 220 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 1: endrominal studies program. It was Georgia College in the early seventies. 221 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: And what I was struck with after a while was 222 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: how much of the environmental movement is engaged in catastrophism. 223 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: So Paul Erlic explained that Britain would be starving to 224 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 1: death by two thousand, for example, and you still have 225 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 1: this in these continuous charges. I mean, one of my 226 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 1: favorite ones is the Mark Townsend and Paul Harris said, quote, 227 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 1: European cities will be plunge beneath rising seas as Britain 228 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:15,440 Speaker 1: has plunged into a Siberian climate by twenty twenty. Now 229 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: it seems me that there are two parts of that. 230 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: One is, if in fact Britain was having a Siberian climate, 231 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 1: you would have water being locked up on land into 232 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 1: glaciers and the seas would be dropping, not rising. What 233 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: am I missing here? Nothing. The politicians and unfortunately some 234 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 1: of the public facing scientists, prey on the ignorance of 235 00:15:39,840 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: most people about climate and weather. I often recite I 236 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 1: think I've got it in the book a quote from 237 00:15:47,480 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 1: hl Menclin whom you certainly must know, who says the 238 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: purpose of practical politics is to keep the electorate alarmed 239 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 1: by a series of mostly imaginary obgoblins, so that they 240 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 1: can be clamoring to be led to safety. And you 241 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: know it's not only the environmentalists who do that. People 242 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 1: talk about immigration sometimes in those terms, the missile gap 243 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 1: in the early sixties, this is the only way that 244 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:22,280 Speaker 1: people politicians at least find to motivate extraordinary action by countries. 245 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: So the patterns are so striking, you know, hysterical assertion 246 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: based on theoretical model followed by absence of event. Then 247 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 1: it seems to happen over and over and over again, 248 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: and nobody ever holds them to account. Okay, I mean, 249 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons I wrote the book. I 250 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: started to see this tremendous disconnect between what the popular 251 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: and political dialogue was the world's only got ten years, etc. 252 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: And what the science actually said, And so I thought 253 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,040 Speaker 1: I would write a book that would give people a 254 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 1: view to what the official reports actually said. You know, 255 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 1: I've often been likened to William Tyndall, whose name you 256 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: must know as well, a major figure of the Protestant Reformation, 257 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 1: and in the early sixteenth century he had the temerity 258 00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:23,160 Speaker 1: to translate the Bible from the original Greek and Hebrew 259 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 1: into English, and people got very mad at him when 260 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: he did that, because he made the scripture accessible to 261 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,960 Speaker 1: ordinary people, or these those who could read at the time, 262 00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: and eventually he was burned at the stake. I hope 263 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,879 Speaker 1: that that doesn't happen to me, that least literally, I 264 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: was going to say, that's a fairly high threat level. 265 00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, But you know, making these complicated issues 266 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: accessible to non experts, I think is something that we 267 00:17:55,840 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 1: as scientists have fallen down on now that the upset 268 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: level of sophistication. In late twenty thirteen, you were asked 269 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,960 Speaker 1: by the American Physical Society, which is the professional organization 270 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: of American physicists, to lead an update of its public 271 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: statement and climate and you brought together a workshop that 272 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: had six leading climate experts and six leading physicists, and 273 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: you spend the entire day scrutinizing what we think we 274 00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 1: currently know about the climate system. I get the sense 275 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: you were really surprised by that workshop. I was surprised, 276 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: first of all by how difficult it was to get 277 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:39,639 Speaker 1: the two sides to talk to each other. That persists 278 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: to this day. But I was maybe even more surprised 279 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:49,640 Speaker 1: to find out how shaky the science was. I wouldn't 280 00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: deny any of the science. I think the official science, 281 00:18:53,240 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: when you read the reports as opposed to the summaries 282 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: or the media coverage of them, are actually not bad. 283 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:03,240 Speaker 1: There's some things that would have changed, but by and 284 00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: large they're not bad. It's when all of that gets 285 00:19:06,640 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 1: filtered to the public that you see how shaky the 286 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: sciences when you really read the reports. So the conclusions 287 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: you reach to our understand it right, are actually much 288 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 1: narrower and much less alarmist than the normal conclusions that 289 00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 1: the news media has been reporting and the politicians have 290 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 1: been reporting. Yeah, and absolutely, And you know, when I 291 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 1: wrote the book, I tried to stick almost entirely to 292 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: what's in the reports, the data, the assessments, the conclusions. 293 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: So when you say those are the conclusion, Steve, you 294 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:50,119 Speaker 1: came to No, that's what's in the reports. It's just 295 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: that nobody ever reads the reports because they're enormous thirty 296 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:58,640 Speaker 1: nine forty nine pages for the UN report released in August. 297 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: They're dense scientifically, and you really need to spend time 298 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: reading them to understand what they say. Okay, So, even 299 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 1: as well educated as you were at Caltech and MT 300 00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: how long does it take to read thirty nine forty 301 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 1: nine pages. Yeah, well, you don't read all of it 302 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,760 Speaker 1: because some of it is tables and so on that 303 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 1: just don't carry much information. But I think it took 304 00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:25,000 Speaker 1: me probably about four or five years to feel like 305 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 1: I could credibly challenge what the IPCC was saying. And 306 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 1: you know, I've been teaching for the last three years 307 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: and will again in September teach a course in climate 308 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 1: science at n were you at the graduate level, And 309 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: I'm very careful to just show them what's in the 310 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: reports or the research papers, and I can tell you 311 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:51,560 Speaker 1: all of them come away with their eyes wide open. 312 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,879 Speaker 1: Now you have an intriguing assertion. You say at one point, 313 00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 1: much of the public portrayal of climate science suffers from 314 00:21:00,520 --> 00:21:04,960 Speaker 1: Fineman's Western Oil problem. I'm gonna want to improve my ignorance. 315 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: I know Fineman, I've read some of his work, but 316 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: what is the Western oil problem? Yeah? So Fineman, in 317 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: famous speech Cargo cult Science, which he gave him I 318 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: think nineteen seventy four it Celtic, talks about the difference 319 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 1: between scientific honesty and advertising, and he says, I won't 320 00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,119 Speaker 1: get it exactly right, but he says something like, you know, 321 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:33,159 Speaker 1: West night, I heard a commercial for Western oil and 322 00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: it said Western oil doesn't soak through foods, and he says, 323 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: you know, that's absolutely correct, But what they didn't tell 324 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 1: you was that all oils soak through foods, and so 325 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: that's the difference between persuading and informing. And I would 326 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: assert that most of the media coverage and most of 327 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: the summer as reports are about persuading people that there 328 00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: is a crisis, as opposed to informing people about what 329 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: the real science is before we get into the politics 330 00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: of it. In your judgment as a physicistant, as somebody 331 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 1: who's been leading academic officer of probably our best scientific 332 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,600 Speaker 1: university by a huge margin, what would you say as 333 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,800 Speaker 1: the state as a science of what we call this 334 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: kind of weather science or this kind of climate science, 335 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 1: what would you say is the degree to which we 336 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: actually don't yet know? What we don't know? So we 337 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: know some things. We know that the globe has warmed, 338 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 1: as I said, about two degrees fahrenheit since nine We 339 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 1: know that humans are exerting a warming influence on the 340 00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:09,240 Speaker 1: globe through the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 341 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: We are much less certain about how the climate system 342 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 1: will respond to those influences, in part because the system 343 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: is complicated, and if you push it in one direction, 344 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,480 Speaker 1: it does some funny things. The other is that the 345 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: system has a lot of internal variation of its own, 346 00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: things like El Nino, which happened every five years or so, 347 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 1: and other longer term cycles in the system that are 348 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 1: entirely natural that can extend for seventy years or even 349 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: more so, Where we fall down is how warm is 350 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,880 Speaker 1: it going to get as greenhouse gases accumulate? And then, 351 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,040 Speaker 1: maybe more importantly, what are the impacts of other weather 352 00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:01,400 Speaker 1: phenomena storms, strouts, floods and so on. And then finally, 353 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: how is all that going to affect society? How will 354 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:08,360 Speaker 1: it change the economy, how does it change living patterns? 355 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: And that maybe the bottom line question is what do 356 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: we do about all of this? And for those last 357 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: two or maybe the last three questions, how is the 358 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 1: climate system going to respond? What are the impacts? And 359 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 1: what do we do? I think the title of my 360 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:27,600 Speaker 1: book Unsettled is probably the best summary, which means that, 361 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 1: and this, of course one of the differences between politicians 362 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: and physicists. The physicists can say, you know, if only 363 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:37,160 Speaker 1: we had time to do about four hundred more experiments, 364 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 1: we'd be further down the road, and the politicians told 365 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,240 Speaker 1: we need an answer at three. You know, that's a 366 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: wonderful dialogue. And I think people don't appreciate the proper 367 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 1: relative roles there. I think the scientist's role is to 368 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:59,119 Speaker 1: lay out the certainties and uncertainties, lay out various options, 369 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:04,159 Speaker 1: but ultimately the decision about what we do is a 370 00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 1: political decision, and I, as a scientist, I think I 371 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:10,960 Speaker 1: have to leave it to people like you who can 372 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 1: weigh many other factors in trying to decide what to do. 373 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,960 Speaker 1: Not my job. Okay, Unfortunately many people in the climate 374 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: science field, I think it is their job, and that 375 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: greatly distorts the business. Look, we had the same experience 376 00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: last two years with COVID, where you had public health 377 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: officials making extraordinary society wide decisions based on a early 378 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: narrow public health view without any look at all the 379 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:42,480 Speaker 1: other kind of holistic things that go into how life occurs. 380 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:46,119 Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. That's a perfect analogy. Yeah. Yeah, 381 00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 1: I think it's very important that scientists should do really 382 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: good science, but not confuse what they think as certainty, 383 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 1: which by definition doesn't exist in science, which is the 384 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,080 Speaker 1: other thing. I mean, all science is subject to change. 385 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: I love paleontology and great breakthroughs in the sixties and 386 00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 1: seventies when they finally figured out that in fact, birds 387 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:11,480 Speaker 1: were dinosaurs, and the dinosaurs had feathers, which just radically 388 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 1: changed what every professional paleontologist on the planet believed. And 389 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 1: there's a tendency then say, Okay, now we know it 390 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 1: for sure, but you don't because it's constantly evolving. Your 391 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: knowledge is always all science is provisional. That is a 392 00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 1: wonderful way to put it. And therefore the really large 393 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 1: society wide decisions have to be made in an atmosphere 394 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: and an environment of uncertainty. Yes, and there are many 395 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 1: competing societal factors which we can get into that may 396 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: say you should you shouldn't make a crash program to 397 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,919 Speaker 1: reduce submissions, right, and there may be good reasons to 398 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:54,919 Speaker 1: do something different than the immediate scientific prescription. You know. 399 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 1: The other thing I have to say is because of 400 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,159 Speaker 1: my general interest in the natural world, when you go 401 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 1: back and look at the really big die offs, there 402 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 1: are things like huge volcanic eruptions, I mean six hundred 403 00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 1: years of volcanoes putting software dioxide into the atmosphere, poisoning 404 00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 1: the oceans on a grand scale, and these things occur 405 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,120 Speaker 1: every two to three hundred million years. I mean, it's 406 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 1: not something I worry about next Thursday. But it's just 407 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,679 Speaker 1: interesting that the planet has been evolving and changing and 408 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 1: reshaping for its entire history and is probably going to continue. 409 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 1: And you know, in the big picture, that's driven evolution, 410 00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 1: and overall it's probably been a good thing. But if 411 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,640 Speaker 1: you're the evolve trapped in one of these catastrophes, it's 412 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 1: not so pleasant. The most recent new insight, which may 413 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:49,040 Speaker 1: be true, is that, in fact you have the sudden 414 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:53,400 Speaker 1: explosion in the Late Triassic in which dinosaurs become dominant. 415 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,199 Speaker 1: The newest theory is there was actually a period of 416 00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 1: extraordinary cold, and the dinosaurs had feathers and therefore could 417 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 1: endure the weather change when their competitors couldn't. Now this 418 00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 1: is so opposite of how when I was young we 419 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 1: would have thought of dinosaurs. And you see this, by 420 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: the way, if you look at the famous dinosaur movies, 421 00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 1: because they're having to change to catch up with the science, 422 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: which is literally changing between movies. I mean, right, there's 423 00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,919 Speaker 1: that much discovery underway. You know, it sounds like in 424 00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 1: another life you've might have been a paleontologist and I 425 00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: might have been an earth scientist. Right, Well, I think 426 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,280 Speaker 1: it's fascinating now Imagine that this is a wild thought, 427 00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: and you don't have to take me seriously here, because 428 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 1: I'm clearly just talking as a citizen politician and not 429 00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: as a very knowledgeable scientist. But imagine that somebody like 430 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:50,840 Speaker 1: Gore had decided that plate tectonics was dangerous and we 431 00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: needed a worldwide project to stop the continents from drifting. 432 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 1: It's an exactly parallel example of suddenly inventing a problem 433 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 1: that in fact is a process, not a problem. That's right. 434 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: We ought to think about who we could get to 435 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 1: do a podcast on the crisis of plate tectonics. You know, 436 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 1: most geologists, as opposed to climate scientists, most geologists have 437 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:24,440 Speaker 1: a let me say, less than alarmed view of climate 438 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: change because they have this big picture. You know, what 439 00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 1: are the things that most annoys me when we get 440 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,240 Speaker 1: onto society issues for a minute is when you hear 441 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: Al Gore talk, or I hear the president talk, or 442 00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:43,400 Speaker 1: any of the popular writers. There are three or four 443 00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 1: billion people on this planet who do not have enough 444 00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:55,000 Speaker 1: energy to live anything like a modern life refrigeration, around 445 00:29:55,000 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 1: the clock, lighting, mobility, so on, and they need that 446 00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:04,960 Speaker 1: energy to improve their lot, and nobody ever talks about 447 00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: how you're going to get them that energy without fossil fuels, 448 00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 1: I can tell you wind and solar are just not 449 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,240 Speaker 1: going to do it for them. Well, you're exactly right, 450 00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,480 Speaker 1: And it's an interesting phenomena that driven by people who 451 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: live very often in high rise buildings with permanent air 452 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:27,760 Speaker 1: conditioning and heat, and who have wonderful lives of traveling 453 00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: in jet aircraft to various very very nice resorts. These 454 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: are the folks who are defining what the crisis is. 455 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,960 Speaker 1: And you're exactly well, four billion people are living at 456 00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 1: a standard level that's closer to nineteen hundred than to 457 00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: where we are today, and that there's no serious movement 458 00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 1: that says what would it take, both in food and 459 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: in energy for these people to live the fullest possible life. 460 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:01,360 Speaker 1: That's a fascinating point. A good friend mine was the 461 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:05,360 Speaker 1: US ambassador of the United Nations Food Organizations and would 462 00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 1: drive him crazy because he said the Europeans would adopt 463 00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:11,640 Speaker 1: these rules that guaranteed that Africans wouldn't have enough food. 464 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,480 Speaker 1: But it may people in Brussels feel really moral. Right, 465 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: it's echo colonialism, all right. You know. There was a 466 00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 1: social scientist named Anthony Downes who was working in the 467 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:27,080 Speaker 1: late sixties in Los Angeles at UCLA, and he wrote 468 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,560 Speaker 1: a paper in which he made the observation he was 469 00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 1: watching cars become more and more common in increasing pollution 470 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,840 Speaker 1: in the basin, and he made the observation that the 471 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:42,320 Speaker 1: elites environmental problems are often the common man just trying 472 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,960 Speaker 1: to improve is hot. And that's exactly what we see 473 00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:51,240 Speaker 1: with the undeveloped countries and people who want to shut 474 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: down all fossil fuel use. I have to tell you, 475 00:31:53,880 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 1: I'm really impressed with the quality of your ammitment to 476 00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 1: actually thinking. It's obvious to me that you approach things 477 00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 1: with huge curiosity and you actually allow facts to drive 478 00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 1: your effort to understand them. Thank you. And this probably 479 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,080 Speaker 1: goes back to your high school years and maybe why 480 00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,520 Speaker 1: you went to Caltech. Yeah. I was always driven by 481 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 1: facts and trying to understand the world. Of course, my 482 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 1: wife of forty seven years would say that there's not 483 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,640 Speaker 1: enough emotion in my perspective, but okay, she's learned to 484 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:35,200 Speaker 1: live with it. That could be a whole different conversation someday. 485 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,080 Speaker 1: I find a lot of emotion in this kind of conversation, 486 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,960 Speaker 1: because to me, it's exhilarating to be able to think 487 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: broadly about how one might pursue the world. Your book 488 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:50,360 Speaker 1: Unsettled But Climate Science tells Us and what it doesn't 489 00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,240 Speaker 1: and Why it Matters is an essential read will help 490 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: you really open people's minds. We're going to have a 491 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 1: link to buy your book on our show page at 492 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 1: newsworld dot com. And I just want to thank you 493 00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 1: for one of the more exhilarating conversations I've had as 494 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 1: part of news World. Well, thank you for being a 495 00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 1: great interlocutor. I've had a lot of fun talking with you. 496 00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,200 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest doctor Stephen Conon. You can 497 00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: get a link to buy his book, Unsettled What Climate 498 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,719 Speaker 1: Science tells Us, what it doesn't and Why it Matters 499 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 1: on our show page at newtsworld dot com. News World 500 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,720 Speaker 1: is produced by Gingwish three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive 501 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 1: producer is Garnsey Slope, our producer is Rebecca Howe, and 502 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 1: our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 503 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,440 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team 504 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: at Gingwich three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I 505 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 1: hope you'll go to Apple Podcast and both rate us 506 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,600 Speaker 1: with five stars and give us a review so others 507 00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 1: can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of 508 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,960 Speaker 1: newts World can sign up for my three free weekly 509 00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:02,280 Speaker 1: columns at Gingwich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm 510 00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:04,840 Speaker 1: Newt Gingrich. This is neutral.