WEBVTT - US-China Rivalry in the Trump Era: A Discussion 0:00:02.800 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.960 Hi Wanha here, I'm excited to bring you a conversation 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:14.800 we had in Singapore earlier this week in front of 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.680 a live audience. This conversation has been edited and condensed. 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:24.040 Hope you enjoy it. Hello everyone, welcome to the special 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:27.520 edition of The Big Take Asia the US China Rivalry 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:30.520 in the Trump Era. It's only been, if you can 0:00:30.560 --> 0:00:34.520 believe it, eight weeks since US President Donald Trump took 0:00:34.560 --> 0:00:39.440 office again, and we've been confronted with a slew of 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:42.800 executive orders and policy moves that have royaled markets and 0:00:42.840 --> 0:00:45.880 stemied businesses. And of course a lot of these moves, 0:00:45.960 --> 0:00:51.240 especially those focused on trade, have serious ramifications here in Asia, 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:56.320 and they've dramatically increased this competition between the US and China. 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:58.720 To help us unpack how this is playing out for 0:00:58.760 --> 0:01:02.480 the two economic super and the world, please help me 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:06.920 welcome a great panel speakers to the stage. So we've 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:11.240 got with us Nancy Cook, who is senior national political correspondent, 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:14.479 who joins us from Washington, d C. And John lou 0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:18.479 who oversees Bloomberg's Greater China coverage based in Beijing. We've 0:01:18.520 --> 0:01:22.039 got Tim O'Brien Bloomberg Opinions Senior executive editor based in 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.040 New York, and next to him Shuley Wrenn. She's the 0:01:25.080 --> 0:01:28.480 Bloomberg Opinion columnist who covers markets in China out of 0:01:28.520 --> 0:01:31.479 Hong Kong. Tim, by the way, is also the author 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:33.959 of Trump Nation, The Art of Being the Donald, and 0:01:33.959 --> 0:01:36.840 he's fantastic stories that he's been telling us about his 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:41.360 time with Donald. Welcome to Singapore, you guys. Well, since 0:01:41.360 --> 0:01:44.600 we're in Singapore and food is such a big element 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:47.120 of the culture, right, we love the Hawker centers. I 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.720 think this very first question is appropriate to this place. 0:01:50.480 --> 0:01:54.880 If US China relations were dish, what dish would it be? 0:01:57.600 --> 0:01:59.000 Let me start with Shuley down there. 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.800 I guess I have to star wars Harpot. Everybody is 0:02:03.840 --> 0:02:07.000 at a table. One guest didn't ask everyone else and 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.160 turn on the heat, and that you have spices splattered 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.520 everywhere on everyone's face. This is what I think of 0:02:13.760 --> 0:02:14.480 very appropriate. 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:15.200 Tim. 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:17.960 I don't know if sweet and sour pork is an 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.640 American idea of what a good Chinese dish is, so 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:23.160 I might be stepping on my American toes and bring 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.240 this up, but I think sweet and sour pork is 0:02:25.360 --> 0:02:28.040 useful because I think a strategy for dealing with Donald 0:02:28.080 --> 0:02:31.440 Trump is, whether you're looking at trade or diplomacy, is 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.280 are you sweet with him? Or are you sour with him? 0:02:34.320 --> 0:02:37.160 And I think people have learned over the years that 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:39.280 you get a little more out of him with sweetness 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:43.840 than with being sour, even though he gives other countries 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.680 and diplomats and investors a lot of reasons to be sour. 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:50.160 Very nice, thank you, very tasty insights. I think this 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.000 is also a good time to take you behind the 0:02:52.040 --> 0:02:55.560 scenes of how we produce the podcast every week. So 0:02:55.600 --> 0:03:02.480 we're going to cue up the music. Let's go. Welcome 0:03:02.520 --> 0:03:05.560 to the Big Take Asia from Bloomberg News. I'm Wanha. 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.960 Every week we take you inside some of the world's 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:11.920 biggest and most powerful economies and the markets, tycoons and 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:16.079 businesses that drive this ever shifting region. Today in the show, 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:20.480 live from Singapore, the US China rivalry in the Trump era. 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:24.120 How are Trump's policies playing out in Asia? And is 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:27.239 the US creating a vacuum for power and influence on 0:03:27.280 --> 0:03:33.880 the world stage that allows China to step up? Nancy, 0:03:33.919 --> 0:03:35.920 I want to start with you to get some perspective 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:39.240 because you have sat down with Donald Trump in mar 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:41.440 A Lago for a one on one interview, and you've 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:45.320 covered him since twenty fifteen. What's different this time around, 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:48.119 you think when it comes to the US China relationship 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:49.160 and rivalry. 0:03:49.920 --> 0:03:52.280 So I think President Trump this time is a much 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.040 more sort of self assured and confident leader than he 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.480 was when he first came into office. He has a 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.760 much better understanding of the levers of power in the 0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:03.960 United States and how to use them. And I think 0:04:04.000 --> 0:04:07.200 people have been surprised that he is acting and moving 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.800 so quickly. I think he has very firmly held beliefs 0:04:10.840 --> 0:04:14.080 on things like trade, and then is more ideologically flexible 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.560 on things like what the Chinese relationship looks like. Ultimately, 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:20.719 what I'm watching, particularly in China is that I still 0:04:20.760 --> 0:04:22.920 think he has He always likes to have a team 0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:26.080 of rivals around him a little bit on different policy areas. 0:04:26.120 --> 0:04:29.760 So there's sort of advisors, economic advisors competing to have 0:04:29.800 --> 0:04:32.760 his ear on trade, and they have competing agendas. And 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.800 the same is true of foreign policy. There is not 0:04:35.000 --> 0:04:37.280 one person that's going to be in charge of setting 0:04:37.279 --> 0:04:39.680 the course for what the US China relationship looks like 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.400 there's different foreign policy people competing, whether that's the Secretary 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:46.760 of State Marco Rubio or the National Security Advisor of 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:49.760 Mike Waltz. And so everybody is trying to jockey and 0:04:49.800 --> 0:04:52.520 find their place, and that will be very influential as 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:55.719 they think about how to approach China and whatever they're 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:56.320 going to do there. 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:58.960 Yeah, and I think that's also a great starting point 0:04:58.960 --> 0:05:02.040 to also talk about itself. And I mean, if Trump 0:05:02.080 --> 0:05:04.880 is different this time around, how is she president? She 0:05:04.920 --> 0:05:05.520 also different? 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:10.359 The difference now is president She and China are in 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:13.080 a different position. The economy is in a weaker position, 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:17.200 there are more headwinds, there's the property market. So I 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.680 think Beijing is trying to act in a more considered way, 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:24.839 where maybe in the first term there was wolf warrior diplomacy. 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:27.520 I think there is an effort to be more measured 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:30.200 in its response. I mean, the ultimate question that I 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:32.159 think everybody in Beijing is trying to figure out is 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.520 what does President Trump want? 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.839 Yeah, certainly that's what we've seen so far. Tim in DC, 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:41.680 in New York in the US, do people understand what 0:05:41.720 --> 0:05:43.880 Trump is trying to achieve? I mean, you spent time 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.680 with him. What is a sense of the endgame here 0:05:46.760 --> 0:05:47.960 from what we've seen so far. 0:05:48.760 --> 0:05:51.000 You know, it was interesting, Juan, when you were giving 0:05:51.040 --> 0:05:53.880 the introduction and you said, it's only been eight weeks, 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.880 but it seems like eight years. Because I think that's 0:05:56.920 --> 0:06:01.560 a universal reaction to this, for flurry of activity from Trump, 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:04.360 wherever you are, and I think for people who are 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:07.600 feeling confused about it, or threatened by it, or just 0:06:07.640 --> 0:06:10.960 wondering where it's headed. I think it's useful to try 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:14.000 to put all of that in context. A meaningful portion 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:17.320 of it is performative. Trump prides himself on being a 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:21.200 man of action and a disruptor. He is typically not. 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:23.919 He doesn't put his hands on the steering wheel. His 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:28.360 trade policies are not coming from a sophisticated place, that 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:31.839 is not coming from an understanding of how markets or 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:37.080 economies or business growth develop. It is a blunt tool 0:06:37.360 --> 0:06:42.040 that he thinks he can use to repatriate manufacturing back 0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:43.039 to the United States. 0:06:43.520 --> 0:06:46.320 Well, we've seen certainly a lot of zigzagging on trade 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.320 and tariffs, so of course were the first thing that 0:06:48.320 --> 0:06:52.000 Trump jumped on, and Trump is now talking about imposing 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:56.760 broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector specific tariffs April second. 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:59.480 That's just a few weeks away. Truly, when you look 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.599 at this through China's lens, I mean, Trump is obviously 0:07:02.680 --> 0:07:05.440 using what some people call this weaponized uncertainty right to 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:09.920 bring businesses to closer to what he wants. Is China 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:10.600 buying any of that? 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:15.200 I think China has realized that the US Trump is 0:07:15.240 --> 0:07:18.760 serious about rebalancing the economy. I mean, before it worked 0:07:18.840 --> 0:07:22.360 very well, right, US is the big consumer, China is 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.960 the big producer. China sells products into the US and 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:28.679 then with the trade surplus day in turn by US treasures. 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.200 It worked very well. And Trump just doesn't want that. 0:07:31.400 --> 0:07:34.200 He wants the US society to be more producers based. 0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.600 And for China, they have realized that is done deal, 0:07:37.920 --> 0:07:40.160 and what they're trying to do these days is to 0:07:40.760 --> 0:07:43.920 turn China into a more consumer based economy. We all 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.080 know Chinese consumers don't spend, right, and they're trying to 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:51.000 encourage consumers to spend or if they still try to 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:53.280 produce and sell, they will try to sell to the 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:55.720 global self. So that's what they've been trying to do. 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.559 But in the end, can these stear ups really break 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.280 Chinese grip on manufacturing at this point truly. 0:08:03.040 --> 0:08:06.000 You know, there was no doubt China was a manufacturing powerhouse. 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:09.640 You look at like all the ev makers bid this year, 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:13.440 they're putting the autonomous driving technology into the cards without 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:16.120 raising price. It's not just the price point. It's not 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:19.520 that Chinese products are cheap, they're just more useful. But 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:22.960 the narrative a year or two ago was like, basically, 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.480 there is a new technological upgrade called AI, and the 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:30.200 China is being locked out. So the next decade forward, 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:31.040 China will. 0:08:30.920 --> 0:08:31.400 Not get that. 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.880 And what we're seeing with deep Seek is that actually 0:08:35.080 --> 0:08:36.400 China is not being locked down. 0:08:36.640 --> 0:08:37.920 And then it's not just AI. 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:42.400 They're talking also about robotics, bringing AI features into robotics, 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:46.240 and I think US has a lot of things to 0:08:46.440 --> 0:08:49.160 catch up on. And also like a lot of Chinese 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:52.160 companies think that this is a great opportunity. That Trump 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:56.320 is distracted and unfocused, and Elon Musk is also in focused. 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:58.800 I mean does he even run Tesla anymore? Right? And 0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:01.599 BID is coming in. Shall me used to be a 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:04.480 Spark film maker and now they are making pretty high 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.839 end electric vehicles and the smartphones. They are taking on 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:12.040 Tesla and the Apple, so a lot of Chinese companies 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:14.800 actually think this is an opportunity. So then tim is 0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:18.120 this whole focus on bringing back manufacturing to the US. 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:19.840 Is that a bit shortsighted? 0:09:20.880 --> 0:09:23.880 I mean, I think when you ask about what's his endgame, 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.400 has this mercant dealist view of how economies function and 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.160 how political power is wielded. You know, I think it's 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:32.240 always a mistake to talk about what Trump's strategy is 0:09:32.280 --> 0:09:35.520 because he's not a strategic thinker. He's emotional, he's visceral, 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:38.439 but he has very clear goals and I think essentially 0:09:38.520 --> 0:09:41.280 what they are right now is an economic hegemony for 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.720 the US and political hegemony for himself. So I think 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:46.800 one of the reasons he's dangerous politically in the United 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.880 States is he's trying to undermine institutions in the US 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:53.120 that would be checks on his own political hegemony, the courts, 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:58.360 the media, universities, is political opponents. And then he've views 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.559 political agemony as the US having its own defined sphere 0:10:01.600 --> 0:10:04.959 of influence that is essentially the Americas, and he doesn't 0:10:04.960 --> 0:10:09.319 want Europe or China interfering with that, and so he 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.800 will latch onto any tools that allow him to get there. 0:10:12.280 --> 0:10:14.320 And then I think, you know, in terms of Trump himself, 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:18.160 he enjoys creating chaos because it keeps his audience and 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.640 his opponents back on their heels, and it allows him 0:10:20.640 --> 0:10:23.040 to be in control of the narrative. I've covered Trump 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.839 since nineteen ninety in various forms, and I was with 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:29.760 him at mar A Lago once. We golfed together and 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:32.920 we came off the course and he had a brand 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.440 new yellow Ferrari in the driveway, and he looked at 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:36.599 me and he said, do you want to go for 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:38.920 a ride in it together? And I said sure. So 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:40.960 we hop in the car and it had a paddle 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:42.560 shifters on the steering wheel that he didn't know how 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:45.000 to use. So he was grinding the gears out on 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.840 the car, on this four hundred and fifty thousand dollars 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:50.439 car as we drove to downtown Palm Beach, and we 0:10:50.480 --> 0:10:53.240 pulled up to a stoplight and the windows of the 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:55.079 car were all dark, and so no one could see 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:56.760 who was in the car. And when we stopped at 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.199 the stoplight, he goes, watch this. Trump said to me, 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:01.640 watch this, and then he put the windows down, and 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.800 everyone on the sidewalk stopped and pointed at the car 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:06.120 and said, look, it's Donald Trump. And then he put 0:11:06.160 --> 0:11:07.520 the windows back up, and he looked at me and 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:12.120 he said, isn't that cool? And this is what he's 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.800 doing with the world right now. He's essentially using the 0:11:14.960 --> 0:11:17.640 United States as like a giant ferrari, and he's pulling 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:20.760 up to these various situations and putting the windows down, 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:25.240 whether it's berating Zelenski in the Oval office, or courting 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.920 Putin or embracing tariffs. 0:11:27.960 --> 0:11:30.520 Certainly keeping us busy in the news business. I want 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.559 to talk about the markets real quick, because the US 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:37.440 doc market's been sinking in reaction to tariffs and recession concerns. Meanwhile, 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:41.240 you've got China's market staying strong. Analysts are talking about 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:43.199 what they call a she put, this idea that the 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.160 Chinese government is going to do everything it can to 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:49.439 achieve this five percent growth target. There's certainly no talk 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:52.160 of a Trump put at the moment. What are the 0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:56.559 reactions on both sides of the Pacific telling us about 0:11:56.600 --> 0:11:58.360 what investors are thinking and feeling. 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.600 The US businesses are panic gaing right now. I bet 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:05.560 you know a number of US companies, everyone from McDonald's 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:09.480 that makes their French fries and canola oil that comes 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.160 from Canada to the big US automakers. They're calling the 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.400 White House flipping out about the tariffs. I mean, the 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:18.199 stock market did so well at the beginning of the 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:20.880 first seven weeks, let's say, or six weeks, and all 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.080 that wealth has been erased already. And the other thing 0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:26.439 that's changed from last time is that Republicans on the 0:12:26.559 --> 0:12:29.760 Hill just really have acquiesced him entirely and are very 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:33.000 afraid to publicly criticize him. So I think that what 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.920 will happen is if the stock market continues to slide 0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:39.000 and we do seem like we're headed towards a recession, 0:12:39.600 --> 0:12:43.360 then I think he will be less popular among Republicans, 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:47.040 among donors, among businesses, and then maybe he will, of 0:12:47.080 --> 0:12:50.400 course correct. But he is really full steam ahead right now. 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.480 This must be so hard to plan at this point 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.719 when you've got such erratic news coming out of the 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:59.960 White House and erratic moves. Can businesses really plan at. 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.120 The no, And that is the message that they're telling 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.120 the White House. But part of the problem is that's 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.640 sort of unclear who is totally in charge with the 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.280 US China sort of strategy. The same is true on 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:14.400 economics and tariffs. There are a number of Trump advisors 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:17.439 and cabinet members who have their hands in tariffs, and 0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:20.400 so it's just been a real sort of toss up 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.080 about what happens with this policy. 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:26.400 So this unpredictability. Can you really invest or build plant 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.680 and equipment if you can't have a five year plan 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:31.240 because he's knocking you back on your feet every week 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.920 with a different policy position. That's going to, I think 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:37.199 be a present factor for quite a while, and I 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.920 don't think the press or the business community will regulate that. 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.479 As a deal maker, he's in charge of these processes. 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.599 He has never been a great deal maker historically. In 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:49.719 his business career, he presided over six corporate bankruptcies. He 0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:52.760 almost went personally bankrupt, but his father bailed him out 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.439 before that happened. And within the business community in the 0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:58.480 United States, he was regarded as a cartoon character and 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.240 routinely got taken to the clean by better deal makers. 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.400 Robert bass on the sale of the Plaza hotel. You 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:06.319 could go on and on down a whole list of deals. 0:14:06.720 --> 0:14:09.400 But he's had this myth because of the Apprentice, that 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:13.000 he can fix complicated situations, that he's got the analytic 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:15.160 and intuitive skills to do that, and he's lacked them 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:16.559 since he was seven. 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.640 After the break, the consequences of the Trump era on Asia, 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:27.560 will Asian economies become collateral damage in the wake of 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.120 the trade war, and how can China capitalize on this moment? 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.640 The ramifications of a US China trade war go beyond 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:50.880 just these two superpowers. And while Asia isn't directly targeted 0:14:50.920 --> 0:14:54.600 by the latest US tariffs, the region is very trade dependent. 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.240 I asked our panel about what the impact would be 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.440 on the region. Here's Bloomberg's shulely Ren. 0:14:59.560 --> 0:15:03.880 Again, Singapore has done very well because of China's capital 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:07.000 offlow in the last couple of years tremendously. I think 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:10.280 a Viennam like especially North Vietnam, has been doing very 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:13.880 well because it's a very natural China plus one destination 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:17.680 right like it's very close to mainland China's industry catalog. 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:22.960 And then Vietnamese people are hard working and entrepreneurial and educated. 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.800 But I do feel that countries like Vietnam had to 0:15:27.000 --> 0:15:30.280 stay under Trump's radar because Vietnam believe or not, runs 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:34.040 the third and largest trade deficit with the US after 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.960 Mexico and China. So one day, if Trump wakes up 0:15:37.000 --> 0:15:40.280 and say, wait a minute, you're using Vietnam to explore 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.200 your stuff into US, then I think Vietnam just has 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:44.360 to be very careful. 0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:47.280 Nervous times, certainly for everyone. I want to pivot to 0:15:47.360 --> 0:15:51.040 foreign policy. Trump has imposed tariffs on North American neighbors. 0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:54.240 He had a shouting match with Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelinski 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.280 in the Oval Office. He's threatening tariffs on Europe. These 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.360 are the traditional allies of the US. All of that, 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:02.960 of course, must be having a very chilling effect for 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:06.120 America's friends here in Asia, from Taiwan to South Korea 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.720 to Japan. And I want to ask you, do you 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:14.360 think she sees this as an opportunity, especially here in Asia, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.960 but around the world. How can China capitalize on this 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:21.920 moment when the US is being erratic, turning its back 0:16:21.960 --> 0:16:22.880 on friends and allies. 0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:27.680 I think Beijing sees this as an opportunity to advance 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:30.880 its interests around the world. If you listen to Chinese 0:16:30.920 --> 0:16:34.600 officials now, they want the world to see Beijing or 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:38.840 see China as an anchor of stability in a chaotic 0:16:38.960 --> 0:16:42.960 world as a result of American and Trump administration policies. 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.120 And it sounds like the administration has taken its eyes 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:49.480 off the ball a little bit, like it seems like 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.000 there's so much else going on. And if that is 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:55.040 the case, then yeah, then she has an opportunity, right 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.600 If the US is too busy thinking about Russia or 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:01.640 the Middle East, then China will have more room to 0:17:02.040 --> 0:17:04.679 do things and to try and advance its own interests. 0:17:04.920 --> 0:17:07.960 I also think that as Trump sheds sort of conventional 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.239 allies in Europe or all these different places, there's going 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:15.400 to be like a whole new reordering of global superpowers. 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.160 And I think that presents an opportunity for China, don't 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.840 you think so? Or maybe not. 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.560 Someone described the situation to me as Trump is digging 0:17:24.640 --> 0:17:26.560 the world all the pieces and throwing them up in 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.040 the air, and everybody's trying to pick things up now. 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.520 And this person said, China's going to end up picking 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.879 up more pieces than it had before he got thrown up. 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.080 I think there's a really good chance that will happen. 0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.320 And Trump, also, just to add it quickly, is an isolationist. 0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.840 He does not think that the US needs to police 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:46.240 the world. He really wants to focus on stuff at home. 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:48.639 When I interviewed him at mar A Lago, you know, 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:51.360 his comments on Taiwan were really some of the most 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.800 striking ones in the interview. We sat with him for 0:17:53.840 --> 0:17:56.280 an hour and a half and he was basically like, 0:17:56.400 --> 0:17:59.720 what has Taiwan done for the US lately? He said 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:01.640 that he was like, I don't see what they're doing 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:04.400 for us. You know, they've stolen our jobs, Like why 0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:06.800 should we protect them? And I think you know what 0:18:06.880 --> 0:18:10.680 we're seeing happening with Ukraine and sort of his unwillingness 0:18:10.800 --> 0:18:15.200 to defend Ukraine or pull back intelligence there, pull back money. 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:18.040 If I were living in Taiwan, I would be fairly 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:18.640 freaked out. 0:18:20.440 --> 0:18:24.399 Taiwan's Defense minister, right after the blow up in the 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:28.120 Oval office with President Zelenski, had this quote I thought 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:31.840 was really interesting and I'm paraphrasing, but essentially said, we 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:36.680 realize that when talking with the US, you cannot discuss 0:18:36.880 --> 0:18:41.880 values with the US without also addressing national interests, which 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:46.760 is like very different from what Taiwan's officials were saying 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:50.000 during the Biden administration, which was all about shared. 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:51.639 Values you know, I remember this conversation I want to 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:54.400 here with that screenwriter about his process, and he said 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:56.959 he would write scenes out on index cards, throw them 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:58.960 into the middle of the floor, and then rearrange them 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:02.080 to see what works. And that's essentially Trump's foreign policy. 0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:04.080 And the danger with that is I have to believe 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.440 China and Russia are shocked at how much progress they've 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:11.840 made over the last two months without having after decades, 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:17.400 decades of strategically and economically and militarily trying to find 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:20.480 ways to get around the US or supersede the US, 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:22.600 and Trump has just walked up in a few short 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:25.119 weeks and delivered to them on a platter. But it 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.560 also isn't a sophisticated understanding of what we all get 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:32.200 when we have shared defenses, which it creates stability, it 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:36.200 creates economic opportunity, It allows people to spend domestically in 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:39.280 their economies on things other than defense, and it encourages 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:42.920 integration that is safer and more prosperous for the world. 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:47.119 And that's what's informing his defenestration of USAID, because he 0:19:47.160 --> 0:19:50.040 doesn't understand how American soft power functions in the world. 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.000 And these come from hard won lessons about how you 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:57.720 successfully achieve peace and prosperity, and he grew up. John 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.720 and I were talking on less earlier. His father made 0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:05.879 his fortune building subsidized housing for working class Americans, and 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:09.840 he ended up cheating the federal government during the nineteen 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:12.639 forties and fifties, and he got kicked out of that program. 0:20:12.960 --> 0:20:15.680 And then he did a similar thing in New York State, 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:17.480 and he was getting funds from New York State for 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:19.840 housing development, and he did the same thing. He was overbilling. 0:20:19.920 --> 0:20:23.000 He was creating faith companies, and he got kicked out 0:20:23.000 --> 0:20:26.160 of the New York State programs. And he essentially resigned 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:29.920 after that or retired rather from building. But within the family, 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:32.560 they never said Dad got in trouble because he was 0:20:32.720 --> 0:20:35.399 dealing from the government. What they said was the government 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:38.560 came and took Dad's properties away. The government came and 0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:41.240 took his candy away. And that informs Trump's view of 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:45.720 emigration and informs Trump's view of foreign policy. It's beware, 0:20:45.840 --> 0:20:47.639 someone's going to come and take things away from you, 0:20:48.040 --> 0:20:51.000 and if you don't protect those things, you're a sucker 0:20:51.680 --> 0:20:54.560 and you will be ripped off. And the only way 0:20:54.600 --> 0:20:56.760 to do that is to isolate and put walls up 0:20:57.280 --> 0:21:00.480 and defend yourself. And that's a perilous calcil in the 0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:01.040 world we live in. 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:05.240 We're really talking about re ordering of alliances and friendships 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:08.119 and coalitions. Right at this point, since we don't have 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:10.760 much time left, I wonder if we can just stare 0:21:10.840 --> 0:21:15.360 into an imaginary crystal ball. Right, we're twenty twenty nine, 0:21:15.480 --> 0:21:18.480 four years from now, Right, what does the world look like, 0:21:18.920 --> 0:21:22.160