Speaker 1: Welcome to a Numbers Game podcast. Thank you guys again
Speaker 1: for being here for another week. My episode earlier in
Speaker 1: the week on Monday on polling was a big hit
Speaker 1: with listeners. A lot of people found it super interesting.
Speaker 1: I think going onto the campaign season further around a
Speaker 1: lot more episodes like that. We're going to be talking
Speaker 1: about the roundup of Trump's first one hundred days and
Speaker 1: then upcoming elections in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey,
Speaker 1: all leading up to the twenty twenty six midterms. I
Speaker 1: know that seems very far away, but it will go
Speaker 1: by fast. It'll be go by in a blink of
Speaker 1: an eye. And we hope that you this will be
Speaker 1: the podcast for everyone interested in elections and data and
Speaker 1: what's coming up. So please like and subscribe if you can.
Speaker 1: All right, interesting poll came out over the course of
Speaker 1: the week and it was from Yale, the Yale the
Speaker 1: Youth Poll, and it looked at forty one hundred people
Speaker 1: between the ages of eighteen to twenty nine, and it
Speaker 1: found that voters between the ages of eighteen to twenty one,
Speaker 1: looking at the upcoming twenty twenty six midterm elections, were
Speaker 1: the most Republican of any voter, they were going to
Speaker 1: vote for Republicans by a twelve point margin, while voters
Speaker 1: between the age of twenty two and twenty nine were
Speaker 1: voting Democrat by six points. They were the I think
Speaker 1: they were the most democratic of the second most democratic.
Speaker 1: That is a tremendous shift. That is a shift that
Speaker 1: we saw in the twenty twenty four elections, and it
Speaker 1: shows that Trump was really the catalyst or part of
Speaker 1: the reason that there was a generational change. I think
Speaker 1: a lot of it was COVID. I think the lockdowns
Speaker 1: really affected this demographic, the way that the Iraq War
Speaker 1: affected my generation, the way that Vietnam affected the Boomer generation,
Speaker 1: the way that you know, the the Internet or the
Speaker 1: Reagan era, or rather the Reagan era affected gen xers.
Speaker 1: I think that this was COVID was a defining issue
Speaker 1: that turned a lot of young people, irregardless of other
Speaker 1: things that would make them Democrats into Republicans. So that
Speaker 1: was very, very very interesting. We'll see if it continues
Speaker 1: into the twenty twenty six mid term elections. Republicans are
Speaker 1: climbing up hill in the midterm elections because of Justice.
Speaker 1: The Republicans can all the White House in the Congress,
Speaker 1: and typically in historical references, the opposing party usually wins
Speaker 1: the House representatives. That only hasn't happened I think since
Speaker 1: two for two thousand and two, so it's been quite
Speaker 1: some time. In nine to eleven had just happened. So
Speaker 1: I think that there's a big, big, possible way that
Speaker 1: Republicans might see some surprising victories if young people actually
Speaker 1: show up and turn out and go vote. They don't
Speaker 1: have the best history of voting, but who knows, this
Speaker 1: could be the year that everything happens. Another interesting thing
Speaker 1: also came out today was from not Today this week,
Speaker 1: rather was from the Amherst Pole was an Amherst you
Speaker 1: gov poll and they asked voters, if you had the
Speaker 1: opportunity to change your vote, would you Because we see
Speaker 1: this through the mainstream media all the time. Oh, these Republicans,
Speaker 1: these Trump voters, they're just they're agonizing. They're so upset
Speaker 1: that they voted for Trump. They can't believe. But they're so apologetic.
Speaker 1: They're on their hands and knees, you know, the front
Speaker 1: of the office of MSNBC and CNN and saying, please
Speaker 1: forgive us for our sins. Well, they found that university
Speaker 1: of Amhmherst you Go poll found it only two percent
Speaker 1: of Trump voters from the twenty twenty four elections said
Speaker 1: that they regret their vote and would change it. Two
Speaker 1: percent is not an army of people, is not loads
Speaker 1: of people. It is not you know, it is not
Speaker 1: what the meat is making out to be. It is
Speaker 1: a very very small fraction of Trump's very unique, large
Speaker 1: and different coalition that he built. He built on the
Speaker 1: backs of populism of the Maha moms and make America
Speaker 1: Healthy Again moms. I actually don't like the phrase Maha,
Speaker 1: but that movement that RFK did it that he brought
Speaker 1: in his coalition, bringing in interesting young people, having a
Speaker 1: young vice president. All of that stuff was his coalition
Speaker 1: and it's for the most part holding his question of
Speaker 1: will they vote with me? This week to talk about
Speaker 1: the Trump coalition and populism is the great writer Batsya
Speaker 1: Unger Sargon. You've seen her everywhere, kirk Klipscho viral constantly.
Speaker 1: She was on Bill maher recently and that was huge,
Speaker 1: and she was out there defending Trump on the tariffs.
Speaker 1: We have a very interesting conversation coming up about populism,
Speaker 1: the Trump coalition, and the future of the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: Please stay tuned. Our guest for this week is the
Speaker 1: iconic Batsia Unger Sargon. She is the author of two books,
Speaker 1: including Second Class, How the Elites Betrayed Americans Men, America's
Speaker 1: Men and Women, and a columnist at The Free Press. Basia,
Speaker 1: thank you for being here.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for having me. I am a huge,
Speaker 2: huge Ryan Stan.
Speaker 3: I would even.
Speaker 2: Say, I would go so far as to say, so,
Speaker 2: this is a real pleasure. It's been so exciting watching
Speaker 2: this podcast.
Speaker 3: Absolutely blow up.
Speaker 2: You deserve it. And everywhere you go, smart things are
Speaker 2: said and narratives are blown up, and.
Speaker 3: You're just not afraid to say the truth. So thank you.
Speaker 1: There's anyone who's blome narratives, it's you on especially when
Speaker 1: you're on Bill Maher. That went viral as anything, where
Speaker 1: you sat there and said, I am from the left
Speaker 1: and Donald Trump is my candidate, and I think he
Speaker 1: was You think that he was expecting you to say, oh,
Speaker 1: I am you know, oh I understand your opinion now
Speaker 1: or like because I think he basically was like, ah,
Speaker 1: that doesn't make any sense. Do you think that you
Speaker 1: were going to win him along? For that?
Speaker 2: He was clearly expecting me to say what all of
Speaker 2: the conservatives on his show seemed to say, which is like,
Speaker 2: you know, yeah, we're Republicans. We don't like the far left,
Speaker 2: we don't like the wokeness, but we really don't like
Speaker 2: Trump either. And I was like, no, I am on
Speaker 2: the left and I really love Trump. I'm a maga lefty,
Speaker 2: and here are all the reasons why. And I felt
Speaker 2: like he was sort of like he wanted to understand me,
Speaker 2: but I think more than that, he wanted to want
Speaker 2: to understand me, but what he really wanted to do
Speaker 2: was make fun of me, and so he sort of
Speaker 2: went back and forth between those two. It was actually
Speaker 2: a really nice conversation. But the thing I learned from
Speaker 2: that is there's a narrative being fed to people on
Speaker 2: the left into Democrats, mostly by like CNN and MSNBC,
Speaker 2: which is that Trump voters like regret it, you know,
Speaker 2: like they'll find like the one Trump voter you know
Speaker 2: who's like, oh this is not what I vote voted for,
Speaker 2: and like have them on like every single day, and
Speaker 2: meanwhile we're out here being like I cannot believe how
Speaker 2: well this is going, Like I did not know a
Speaker 2: person could work this hard, or a person could keep
Speaker 2: so many promises. Like it's just like that split screen
Speaker 2: between what they think we're feeling and what we're actually
Speaker 2: feeling is real and it's deep, and they're like sitting
Speaker 2: there like like in this fantasy, right, like that there's
Speaker 2: all of this regret and they're just setting themselves up
Speaker 2: to fail.
Speaker 3: I think like again and again and again, right.
Speaker 1: And I mentioned earlier in the podcast with the Universe,
Speaker 1: there's a universe of Amherst Pole, that University Amherst you
Speaker 1: gut poll that said only two percent of Trump supporters
Speaker 1: that they would vote for a different candidate given the opportunity,
Speaker 1: which if you watched I don't watch CNN anymore, not
Speaker 1: since I've not been on it, but if you watched
Speaker 1: the mainstream even left on on Twitter, they had this
Speaker 1: belief that there is just you know, readlines full of
Speaker 1: you know, Trump supporters and who are like, oh man,
Speaker 1: I got it wrong this time, you know, And I
Speaker 1: have not found that in my regular life. There are
Speaker 1: moments of frustration with Trump because I think part of
Speaker 1: part of the problem is he tends to be all
Speaker 1: things to all people, so you don't always know what
Speaker 1: you're going to get. And there are times are I
Speaker 1: don't you know, I'm like, oh well, I'm not really
Speaker 1: font down with that one, like on the gold cards,
Speaker 1: but there are. But I would trade all of that
Speaker 1: for the anti DEI stuff for the immigration stuff. And
Speaker 1: I was when I was coming up of age, I
Speaker 1: was eighteen years old. I was Regidemocrat, a Reagi Democrat
Speaker 1: because I opposed Iraq war. That was my issue. I
Speaker 1: was posed Iraq war and I was against amnesty for
Speaker 1: illegal immigrants. Those are the only two world views I
Speaker 1: even had, only political political opinions I had. And so
Speaker 1: I think I was a Democratic like a year and
Speaker 1: I was like, well, this is not going to work out.
Speaker 1: But but I understand that voter though who of coming
Speaker 1: of age, we're not that different in age. You and
Speaker 1: I who during the Bush years, really were like this
Speaker 1: was not for me. And two, I think people a
Speaker 1: little older than us who are frozen more in time
Speaker 1: and think of the Republican Party as still the party
Speaker 1: of evangelical Christians from the Bush era. They don't even
Speaker 1: know how to frame the arguments anymore. Do you find
Speaker 1: the same thing?
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, absolutely, yeah, it's so wild. How nimble Republican
Speaker 2: voters have proven to be in accommodating the enthusiasm of
Speaker 2: younger people in the Republican Party and saying, Okay, yeah,
Speaker 2: failed wars, we're going to be anti war, you know.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, okay, the social conservatism is a bit much
Speaker 2: for the younger generation, will be moderate.
Speaker 3: It's you know, you know, oh.
Speaker 2: Free trade, Wow, that really didn't work out. And now
Speaker 2: there are all these working class people who look to
Speaker 2: us as a home. Maybe we should deliver for them.
Speaker 2: And meanwhile, how stuck in the past the Democrats have been.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's real on their part, because I
Speaker 2: think that they know that they lost labor, they know
Speaker 2: that they lost the working class, and they know what
Speaker 2: they did to lose them, which is they made this
Speaker 2: sort of deal with the devil, with the credentialed class
Speaker 2: and the sort of NGO soroast world, right, all of
Speaker 2: whom endorse these vanity morals because they're so wealthy. So
Speaker 2: they sort of traded up in their view, but they
Speaker 2: can't admit that because to admit that would be to
Speaker 2: admit that they're the party of the rich.
Speaker 3: It's so funny.
Speaker 2: I was talking to somebody the other day in a
Speaker 2: green room, and he said, well, you know, I'm sort
Speaker 2: of like a classical like I want, you know, free trade,
Speaker 2: and I want us to stand with our allies, and
Speaker 2: you know, I'm sort of a classical Republican. And I
Speaker 2: said to him, you know, in two years, you'll be
Speaker 2: able to vote for a Democrat and feel really good
Speaker 2: about yourself, because that's really what the Democratic Party now
Speaker 2: stands for, right is like foreign intervention, massive funding of
Speaker 2: American exceptionalism, regime change, and free trade with China. Whereas
Speaker 2: it's the Republicans who have proven really nimble and able
Speaker 2: under you know, the austice of Donald Trump to sort
Speaker 2: of change. There are a few I don't like the
Speaker 2: gold card either, but I've had the opposite reaction to
Speaker 2: where I've had experiences where I'm like, you know, he's
Speaker 2: probably not going to be great on this, and then
Speaker 2: he'll turn around and be great on it, Like I
Speaker 2: don't know if you read the report from Axios from
Speaker 2: Markaputa that came out that when Trump heard that Elon
Speaker 2: Musk was supposed to be in that briefing on China,
Speaker 2: Trump actually said, what the f is Elon doing here?
Speaker 2: Make sure he doesn't go because.
Speaker 1: Twitter, when you tweeted that, that's how I found that story.
Speaker 1: I literally read it really big deal, like.
Speaker 2: He really understands the conflict of interest that Elon Musk has.
Speaker 2: People don't get this because they see, oh Tesla, like,
Speaker 2: you know they're made, you know, eighty seven percent are
Speaker 2: made in America.
Speaker 3: Well that's true of the.
Speaker 2: Cars that are sold here, but most Teslas are not
Speaker 2: sold in America. And every Tesla that's not sold in
Speaker 2: America is made one hundred percent in China in Shanghai.
Speaker 2: Elon Musk hat a choice to make his European and
Speaker 2: Chinese sold cars here, and he chose.
Speaker 3: Instead to make them in China.
Speaker 2: And Donald Trump one hundred percent understands that Elon Musk's
Speaker 2: fortune exists at the largesse of Jijiping, and so I
Speaker 2: was very very heartened to see that reporting.
Speaker 1: I have found that. I mean, there are when I
Speaker 1: have Christians of the Trump administration overall. A lot of
Speaker 1: times it's through a communication issue where I sometimes they
Speaker 1: don't think that they're that clear with their goals. I
Speaker 1: think with the tariffs, they could have been a lot
Speaker 1: clearer as to what the goals are because Americas are
Speaker 1: willing to make sacrifices, but you need to be very
Speaker 1: articulate in what you are asking people to sacrifice and
Speaker 1: why and what the intended outcome is. And it was
Speaker 1: a little messy, and I don't think that the I
Speaker 1: think the pr could have been better. I agree with
Speaker 1: the sentiment and the idea, and I also think there's
Speaker 1: just more than one way to really nail down that
Speaker 1: issue than than was being done. If it's to bring
Speaker 1: back manufacturing. One of the easiest things I've said, and
Speaker 1: I've written an article about this with The American Conservative,
Speaker 1: is that we spend billions of dollars in the Pentagon
Speaker 1: on pharmaceutical drugs. It's one of the biggest buyers of
Speaker 1: pharmacchool drugs in the entire country. We buy from China.
Speaker 1: Why why doesn't the Pentagon say we're going to give
Speaker 1: a federal contract to people who make ibuprofen or anti
Speaker 1: inflammatory drugs, or you know, any kind of drugs but
Speaker 1: exclusively made in America. And we could even do what
Speaker 1: Joe Biden was trying to do with some of his stuff,
Speaker 1: which was place based economics, where we say and preferably
Speaker 1: the contract has to be made in Wisconsin, or in
Speaker 1: Michigan or wherever, places that have been affected negatively by
Speaker 1: the wto stuff and China stuff Like that's a very
Speaker 1: less I don't want to say it's easy, but it's
Speaker 1: less intrusive to the market than tariffs would be, and
Speaker 1: it would be part of a more coe cohesive package
Speaker 1: if it was all brought together. Do you know what
Speaker 1: I'm saying, we do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of I kind of love. I thought
Speaker 2: the cast was kind of very important because like the
Speaker 2: way I say, what Trump is trying to do is
Speaker 2: he doesn't actually want these huge tariffs on the EU.
Speaker 2: What he wants from them as a commitment to buy
Speaker 2: what America is going to start producing. And I think
Speaker 2: what he's trying to organize as a kind of soft
Speaker 2: embargo on China, like a global embargo. In order for
Speaker 2: this whole thing to work, we need partners because we're
Speaker 2: going to start wanting to sell. He wants basically for
Speaker 2: us to be able to sell more to our allies
Speaker 2: and buy less from China. And the way that I
Speaker 2: think he went about that was he sort of like
Speaker 2: picked up a baseball bat and sort of mosied on
Speaker 2: over to the global stock market and basically said to
Speaker 2: the global elites, that's a really nice stock market you've got.
Speaker 2: It would be a shame if anything happened to it.
Speaker 2: And he had to prove that he was willing to
Speaker 2: break somebody's leg in order for it to have teeth.
Speaker 2: And now you see, like I think he did pivot.
Speaker 2: I think initially he was sort of thinking he was
Speaker 2: buying the well, actually, this is what I really think.
Speaker 2: I'm curious if you agree with me. I think he
Speaker 2: thought that the Navarro angle on the tariffs, the idea
Speaker 2: that they would raise revenue, which is not historically sending
Speaker 2: Trump has said about it because he doesn't believe the debt.
Speaker 3: Ceiling is real and he doesn't really care about the deficit.
Speaker 2: But I think, you know, he thought that the Navarro
Speaker 2: angle here that these tariffs would generate revenue, would help
Speaker 2: pass the reconciliation bill because it would help sort of
Speaker 2: convince recalcitrant Republicans that there was going to be another
Speaker 2: stream of revenue to make up for the fact that
Speaker 2: they were going to have to raise the debt ceiling.
Speaker 2: And I think when he figured out that actually was
Speaker 2: hurting that exact thing, he went sort of he leaned
Speaker 2: harder on bestant and the best in argument, which is like, look,
Speaker 2: this is just unfair we you know, the national security argument,
Speaker 2: the idea that we're being screwed, you know, all this
Speaker 2: other stuff that Trump has been saying for a very
Speaker 2: long time. So I think that the messines Is was
Speaker 2: like part of what made this Actually it was both
Speaker 2: a reflection of a very healthy conversation that's happening within
Speaker 2: the administration that it isn't like in lockstep, but also
Speaker 2: I think it ended up being pretty effective. You know,
Speaker 2: would these one hundred and thirty countries be begging for
Speaker 2: a deal if Trump hadn't literally like crashed the stock
Speaker 2: market and joyously. I mean he did it with such
Speaker 2: like he was so confident about it. The way that
Speaker 2: he pulled that off, it was like, I don't know,
Speaker 2: there was something about that. I just kept thinking, like,
Speaker 2: you know, in two thousand and eight, as a senator,
Speaker 2: President Obama, I guess then Senator Barack Obama rallied the
Speaker 2: troops around the seven hundred billion dollar bailout of the
Speaker 2: banks while ten million Americans went homeless. Those ten million
Speaker 2: Americans had to watch as those same crooks who organized
Speaker 2: the entire global crisis collected thirty billion dollars in taxpayer
Speaker 2: funded bonuses Obama as president, and it walked in and said,
Speaker 2: we're saving Wall Street and screw Main Street. You will
Speaker 2: go homeless and you won't get a penny from us.
Speaker 2: And what we just saw Trump do was the exact opposite.
Speaker 2: He gave the middle finger to Wall Street and said
Speaker 2: I don't work for you. And I think that that message,
Speaker 2: I mean, it just I think it really resonated.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that. I think there's a couple of things,
Speaker 1: so yeah, partially I agree with you. I think that
Speaker 1: Trump's madman approach to foreign policy, both military and trade,
Speaker 1: is part of the reason people are not willing to
Speaker 1: screw him away. They where with Joe Biden or Barack Obama,
Speaker 1: who they thought were weak. I mean, like just they
Speaker 1: just didn't respect them in the same way. Although they
Speaker 1: have high favorable opinions because they listen to the right music,
Speaker 1: they don't or they go to the right opera, or
Speaker 1: they speak the right way, they don't actually think that
Speaker 1: they're strong leaders, and they don't have faith that they
Speaker 1: would actually step up. They think that Trump's a mad man,
Speaker 1: and they're afraid, you know, no one steps on Superman's case,
Speaker 1: especially when he's angry. So I think that's part of it.
Speaker 1: But I think that if the goal was to reduce
Speaker 1: trade barriers, to have a bit more equal trading playing
Speaker 1: field with the EU, with Vietnam, with other countries, I
Speaker 1: think that there if that's the end goal, then it'll
Speaker 1: be a great end goal, right, That'll be a fantastic
Speaker 1: end goal. Is if the end goal is reshowing manufacturing,
Speaker 1: that's also a great end goal. If the end goal
Speaker 1: is kind of to roll back the last thirty years,
Speaker 1: it's a great end goal. I don't know how you
Speaker 1: really get there though, but it but it kind of
Speaker 1: was like they're all our end goal, well which one
Speaker 1: is at first? And I don't really know how you
Speaker 1: kind of and I think the chaos of the different
Speaker 1: messaging made investors shaky. And the problem also is you
Speaker 1: have a lot of tech stocks that were way over evaluated,
Speaker 1: and you have and so they were like they were
Speaker 1: they were shedding their stockholdings and using this Harris as
Speaker 1: the excuse, but they were, I mean, they were way
Speaker 1: over valuate it for quite some time. So you had
Speaker 1: kind of a perfect storm that really made people lose
Speaker 1: faith that Trump could turn around the economy. I think
Speaker 1: that that has I think you listen, if there's any
Speaker 1: time you want to do it in an administration, it's now,
Speaker 1: not in the summer, not next year, not when the
Speaker 1: midterms are coming up. So that hopefully the economy improves.
Speaker 1: If in ninety days Trump walks up with you know,
Speaker 1: Ursula van Lusha whatever her last name is, from the
Speaker 1: EU and the president of Vietnam over that is, and
Speaker 1: the Australian not Australian, but the UK Prime Minister Cure
Speaker 1: Starmer or somebody else and says, no tariffs on any
Speaker 1: of these people. We're having a United free trade thing.
Speaker 1: They're going to buy American goods that will absolutely real
Speaker 1: cause a bonanza on Wall Street. And then but they
Speaker 1: have to sit there and make some kind of agreement
Speaker 1: with China. And the EU is notoriously weak when it
Speaker 1: comes to both Russia and China. Despite what their images,
Speaker 1: they're terribly weak on it. I will say the one
Speaker 1: thing I'm I don't want to say i'm hopeful for,
Speaker 1: but i'm i'm I'm fascinated that these are coming out
Speaker 1: of the admin is the willingness to increase the top
Speaker 1: top bracket of income to thirty nine point six percent
Speaker 1: from thirty seven percent, letting the old tax cuts expire
Speaker 1: that two point six percent in exchange for no tax
Speaker 1: on tips, no tax on social security. David Shure, the
Speaker 1: Democratic data analyst, said, the best attack line for the
Speaker 1: Trump against Republicans is tax cuts for the wealthy. The
Speaker 1: worst attack line and the best attacking where the Republicans
Speaker 1: have is no tax on tips, no tax on social Security.
Speaker 1: And I think that becoming an economic centrist, which is
Speaker 1: what the Republican Party is doing, that's attracting voters like you.
Speaker 1: This is really I think. I think that's the way
Speaker 1: forward for a midterm election strategy, is offering tax cuts
Speaker 1: on social Security and no tax on tips, and that
Speaker 1: would in exchange for a two point six percent increase
Speaker 1: on the wealthy to make it more balanced. Do you agree?
Speaker 3: I would love to to see that.
Speaker 2: I do think what Trump is thinking is he has
Speaker 2: to combine the tariffs and the tight labor market he
Speaker 2: created by controlling the border with some sort of pro
Speaker 2: business goodies on the other end, and I think deregulation
Speaker 2: is to that end. Cheap energy drill, baby drill. But
Speaker 2: I think the tax cuts were kind of part of
Speaker 2: that as well in his mind. I mean that's how
Speaker 2: I kind of justify it, Like he wants a roaring
Speaker 2: economy that lifts all boats, and this sort of pro
Speaker 2: worker stuff is huge, and so that's kind of, you know,
Speaker 2: I see the rationale for it in that bucket. But
Speaker 2: I like what you're saying, and I would obviously prefer
Speaker 2: that on the foreign policy thing. I was once on
Speaker 2: the subway in New York and something happened to me,
Speaker 2: and I was like, this explains Trump's form policy so well.
Speaker 2: So I was sitting there and there was a guy
Speaker 2: sitting across from me who was like a little crazy,
Speaker 2: you know, like the kind of thing you see almost
Speaker 2: every time you get on the side, twitching and like,
Speaker 2: you know, the exactly like a mild piece, you know,
Speaker 2: like kind of yeah, exactly like twitch and talking to
Speaker 2: himself and like, you know, making all sorts of facial expressions,
Speaker 2: having you know, like a little you know, grand all time.
Speaker 2: And then the doors opened and someone really crazy got on,
Speaker 2: like one of these really crazy people where you're like,
Speaker 2: oh God, please don't let this person look at me
Speaker 2: like I that mildly crazy person.
Speaker 3: Boy did he clean up his act quickly. He sat
Speaker 3: there like this and sudden.
Speaker 2: If I had gotten on after the really crazy person
Speaker 2: got on, I never would have known there was anything
Speaker 2: wrong with him. He sat up straight, he was looking down,
Speaker 2: he stopped his twitching, he stopped talking to himself, he
Speaker 2: stopped singing because he was like, Wow, there's an actually
Speaker 2: really crazy person here. I better not draw his attention.
Speaker 2: And I feel like this is like the exact perfect
Speaker 2: metaphor to explain Trump's foreign policy. You always want to
Speaker 2: be the most unpredictable person when you're dealing with people
Speaker 2: who are unpredictable, because, like you said, like that is
Speaker 2: how you get their respect. And I have to say
Speaker 2: it has been one of the most validating experiences I
Speaker 2: think of my life as an American to watch the
Speaker 2: same people who mocked Trump and sneered at him and
Speaker 2: made fun of him and laughed at him get on
Speaker 2: their knees and crawl over into the throne room and
Speaker 2: start begging him for like an ounce of approval. I
Speaker 2: just can't get enough of it. And I don't know
Speaker 2: if you feel the same way, but it's just like
Speaker 2: I just you love.
Speaker 3: To see it. It's like it's like an eighties like
Speaker 3: feel good. You know, fuck Redemption arc. I love it.
Speaker 1: I mean there are times big tech people make me nervous.
Speaker 1: Who are all doing that? I can I just wait
Speaker 1: Parsa for one second. I want to say my favorite
Speaker 1: mildly crazy subway story person. One time I was on
Speaker 1: the subway and a lady. I was having a very
Speaker 1: rough day. I remember it very distinctly, and a lady
Speaker 1: looked at me and said, you look nice today, and
Speaker 1: I felt so like I was like, wow, this is
Speaker 1: like the greatest thing ever. And then I said, oh,
Speaker 1: thank you, and then she goes, no, not you, the
Speaker 1: person behind you. And there was and there was no
Speaker 1: one behind me. There wasn't a soul behind me. And
Speaker 1: then she started talking to her invisible friend. And I
Speaker 1: was like, I'm still taking that compliment, like I'm going
Speaker 1: to live on that for quite a number of years
Speaker 1: doing Oh that is totally what happened. When I was like,
Speaker 1: it was like twenty two or twenty one. I'm still
Speaker 1: living on that compliment fifteen years later. The yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: a little hesitant with some people like bergs of the
Speaker 1: world coming into like the picture of me and saying
Speaker 1: oh no, we love you. Now, by the way, please
Speaker 1: reduce the amount the FTC's trying to sit there and
Speaker 1: find us, from like thirty billion to seven hundred million.
Speaker 1: That makes me nervous. And there are times I hope
Speaker 1: Trump six to his guns. He has an immigration he
Speaker 1: has on he has on the tariff stuff he has.
Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see what the judges look like. I imagined
Speaker 1: they'll be pretty good. I really hope if Trump, I
Speaker 1: said this before I Trump gets the birthright citizenship removed
Speaker 1: for non citizens, it will be I don't care if
Speaker 1: he's it's at home meeting Big Max. For the rest
Speaker 1: of the entire presidency. I like, this is the greatest
Speaker 1: president who ever lived, So okay, on what matters to me,
Speaker 1: he has delivered. And I think that's what the media
Speaker 1: cannot understand, Like why aren't you outraged all the time
Speaker 1: about everything? Because what matters to most people is just
Speaker 1: a big picture, and he on that point. I mean, yeah,
Speaker 1: the stock market is a little shaky, but he's delivered
Speaker 1: more than he hasn't, And we haven't had a leader
Speaker 1: for four years who delivered at all, and in fact
Speaker 1: felt like we were attacking us as garbage. In the
Speaker 1: case of Joe Biden or you know, being openly hostile
Speaker 1: to anything we've had. And the Democratic Party, whose whole
Speaker 1: political strategy is is decreasing people to the lowest possible value.
Speaker 1: Women are only their you know, their sex organs or
Speaker 1: the possibly having children. You know, LGB people are only
Speaker 1: trans fear mongering over over Sam six mac or or
Speaker 1: you know, black people are just the color of their
Speaker 1: skin or his thing. But we're just whether or not
Speaker 1: they know someone who's legally or illegal in the country.
Speaker 1: It's always the lowest comminent denominator politics. And I will say,
Speaker 1: like Bernie Sanders doesn't always do that, a fetterman doesn't
Speaker 1: always do that. They don't all always do that, but
Speaker 1: that has been the common ring from the Democratic Party,
Speaker 1: which so why I think people really don't have a
Speaker 1: fun opinion of them. And what we're getting through back
Speaker 1: to before is, you know, we're talking about people who
Speaker 1: grew up during the Bush era, people who people who
Speaker 1: now like are millennials sliding into middle age like myself
Speaker 1: and and we we are people perceive that those life
Speaker 1: experiences are what has trickled down to younger people. But
Speaker 1: for younger people, for people eighteen to twenty one and
Speaker 1: under thirty their life or twenty five. Really their life
Speaker 1: experience was the COVID lockdowns. Their life experience was no
Speaker 1: prom no graduation, no sports events, know nothing, depression or
Speaker 1: all the rest of it because of Democratic policies that
Speaker 1: they can't get back, and that anger, I think will
Speaker 1: possibly fuel them, you know, the same way that Bush's
Speaker 1: you know, wars fuel millennials for last twenty years.
Speaker 2: I think that's a really interesting point. I wanted to
Speaker 2: ask your opinion about something that I have been noticing
Speaker 2: and I'm very curious if you agree with me on
Speaker 2: which is in the question of like succession. I feel
Speaker 2: like everybody thinks it's going to be JD Vance, But
Speaker 2: I I think like as someone coming, you know, from
Speaker 2: the MAGA left, like somebody who had like has I
Speaker 2: think a very clear sense of who the people are
Speaker 2: who gave Trump the victory, who like joined the movement,
Speaker 2: as well as just the kind of like normy Republican
Speaker 2: voter today. I think that the Republicans are in danger
Speaker 2: of misunderstanding what Trump got right, and I think JD
Speaker 2: kind of represents that.
Speaker 1: Really. Yeah, well, who would you say would be like
Speaker 1: the success Well, first, why do you think that he
Speaker 1: misunderstands that, and who would you think the success?
Speaker 2: Okay, so I think that Trump very successfully neutralized the
Speaker 2: abortion issue, not by not talking about it, but by
Speaker 2: talking about it in a very specific way. So it
Speaker 2: was my experience when I was reporting my book Second Class.
Speaker 2: I was just traveling around the country interviewing working class
Speaker 2: people from both parties, and what I heard from, like
Speaker 2: the vast majority of the women that I interviewed, whether
Speaker 2: they were Republicans or Democrats, was basically some version of
Speaker 2: I would never get an abortion because I think it's wrong,
Speaker 2: but I would never judge another woman who was put
Speaker 2: in the horrible position of having to choose them. And
Speaker 2: I think we've seen the ballot measures to ban abortion
Speaker 2: fail even in red states, and I think that position
Speaker 2: it's a kind of like pro life but anti ban,
Speaker 2: like an extreme tolerance while also like having a very
Speaker 2: moral You know, people like that would show up as
Speaker 2: pro life in polls, but I think that they feel
Speaker 2: very strongly the anti ban piece of that. And Trump
Speaker 2: made it very clear that he sort of agreed with them.
Speaker 2: I mean, he kept saying he supports the exceptions he
Speaker 2: has said before that he supports abortion for twelve weeks,
Speaker 2: he says we should be more like Europe. He says
Speaker 2: that that he would he said again and again that
Speaker 2: he would veto a national abortion ban, and he really
Speaker 2: made no compunction about quite significantly sidelining and marginalizing and
Speaker 2: even making fun of Project twenty twenty five, which was
Speaker 2: what the Democrats tried to saddle him with as this
Speaker 2: kind of extremist, you know.
Speaker 1: Like JD does that.
Speaker 2: JD supports a national abortion ban. He said that, and
Speaker 2: I think he's quite vulnerable on that because he's a
Speaker 2: Catholic and he really believes that. He said repeatedly that
Speaker 2: he would support a national abortion man that he thinks
Speaker 2: it should be illegal.
Speaker 1: On the twenty twenty two cent campaign you're talking about,
Speaker 1: he said it.
Speaker 3: On multiple interviews.
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to the time frame because that's when
Speaker 1: I worked on his campaign by ward on the pack side,
Speaker 1: so I wasn't. I don't know that, I think, and.
Speaker 2: So on the on the social issues, I think he's
Speaker 2: very vulnerable. On the foreign policy, I think that he
Speaker 2: represents people think Trump's an isolationist, but he really isn't.
Speaker 3: He has this piece through.
Speaker 2: Strength idea he's a lot like Tulci Gabbard, like she
Speaker 2: hates terrorists. There's nothing she won't do to a terrorist,
Speaker 2: but she thinks that if you haven't threatened America in
Speaker 2: a significant way, you're not our business and you're not
Speaker 2: our problem. JD is an isolationist. So then on the
Speaker 2: foreign policy he's quite different from Trump. On the trade thing,
Speaker 2: he's very good. I think he's solidly there. But if
Speaker 2: I would have to say, who is a person in
Speaker 2: Trump's cabinet who is much more aligned with him on
Speaker 2: all three of those issues foreign policy, aconomic policy, and
Speaker 2: social policy, I would say it's Marco Rubio. And I
Speaker 2: don't know why people aren't. Am I totally wrong? I
Speaker 2: could be totally off about this, but I will say.
Speaker 1: Okay, so one odd thing, So I'll tell you a
Speaker 1: story that I've never told anyone. So I was a
Speaker 1: European trip planned post election. I was like, I was
Speaker 1: so burned from the election, like I'm going away. I
Speaker 1: booked this like seven months in advance, like I don't
Speaker 1: care who wins at this point, I am going away.
Speaker 1: And as I'm getting on the plane, like literally about
Speaker 1: to board the plane to go to the destination. I
Speaker 1: was going to Spain. Going to Spain. I get a
Speaker 1: text from my friend Megan McCain and Megan's like, hey,
Speaker 1: would you talk to Tulsi for a second about her
Speaker 1: meeting with Trump and some ideas and just bouncing off
Speaker 1: ideas and I'm literally like walking on the line. I'm like, Tulsie, listen,
Speaker 1: you can't ask for multiple different things. You have to
Speaker 1: say you to the present, and I won't want and
Speaker 1: I can't help but be one. Use my hands when
Speaker 1: talking because I'm Italian and to be way too loud.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure that people like checking my ticket where
Speaker 1: like this crazy person thinks he's talking to Tulci Gabbard.
Speaker 1: But true story. But Telsea and JD are very similar
Speaker 1: in their foreign policy, very very similar in their foreign
Speaker 1: policy and their allies within the ADMIN from what I
Speaker 1: understand in that, so I don't think that they're that
Speaker 1: far of a stretch. I like Marco Rubio a lot.
Speaker 1: I know Marco Rubio's chief. I've spoken to Marco Rubio,
Speaker 1: I think at least one time, maybe twice, but definitely
Speaker 1: one time. And I see that Marco Rubio is a
Speaker 1: man who has evolved and changed a lot over time,
Speaker 1: and the man who he was in his early forties,
Speaker 1: when he was the wonder kin freshman senator that should
Speaker 1: be president immediately, super neo conservative, is slightly different. I
Speaker 1: read his last book on I don't know if you
Speaker 1: read it, but it was on trade and foreign policy
Speaker 1: in the working class, and he got a lot right.
Speaker 1: But when he was talking about foreign policy, the one
Speaker 1: thing was very jarring to me was all about hawkish stores. China,
Speaker 1: and the entire Middle East was missing. It's as if
Speaker 1: Middle Eastern conflict never happened when it was the most
Speaker 1: probably the most defining thing of my late teens early twenties.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know how if he just
Speaker 1: wants that issue to not be the main focus or whatever,
Speaker 1: or if he's fairly changed on it, but it was
Speaker 1: very obvious that it was completely missing, ruining foreign policy conversations.
Speaker 1: And he's great on China, great on immigration.
Speaker 2: He's taken on a real you know, he's he's been
Speaker 2: the one kind of defending all these deportations in.
Speaker 1: A very antiportations. What I would like to know from
Speaker 1: Marco Rubio, and I would, and I like Marco Rupers,
Speaker 1: is not Christ overall, But I just wanted I would
Speaker 1: love to ask him how many immigrants do you think
Speaker 1: should come to the United States every year? I think
Speaker 1: that every politician should be have to answer that question
Speaker 1: if they're going to run for federal office, is how many?
Speaker 1: Give me a physical number, because right now we have
Speaker 1: a number. Don't say, well, let the marketing side, No,
Speaker 1: you have to decide by a number. That's the number
Speaker 1: that comes in. Pick a number. Just pick the number.
Speaker 1: And to me, legal immigration in twenty twenty five should
Speaker 1: be safe, legal, and rare. That is my opinion. It
Speaker 1: is the same abortion opinion that the Democrats are in
Speaker 1: the nineties. So you can use the line if you
Speaker 1: want a next interview, you have. But I believe that,
Speaker 1: and I don't know if he believes that. I will say,
Speaker 1: as far as succession goes, there's only ever been one
Speaker 1: vice president in both the Democrat and Republican party who
Speaker 1: pursued the nomination for presidency and did not receive the nomination,
Speaker 1: and that was Mike Pence in twenty twenty four. Was
Speaker 1: the first time that's ever happened, and that was because
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump. And had Donald not run, Pence would
Speaker 1: have done significantly better. Had twenty twenty note happened, he
Speaker 1: would have definitely probably don't see better, but that is
Speaker 1: that's the case where I don't see there would be,
Speaker 1: you know, unless a calamity happened. The odds if JD
Speaker 1: wants to run the job, it's odds of him not
Speaker 1: being the nominee are fairly small. Now he will sink
Speaker 1: or swim on his own accord, by his own ticket,
Speaker 1: by his own nomination. And I'm sure he'll do some
Speaker 1: things like Trump and some things not like Trump, or
Speaker 1: you know, indifference to him, but a little different, and
Speaker 1: he'll have his own evolution and other issues will come
Speaker 1: up over time that will matter. I think that I
Speaker 1: think that Trump's coalition is very unique, and I think
Speaker 1: that the groups that he really should be doubling down on,
Speaker 1: Aside from young people that have run to the party
Speaker 1: and some Latinos, especially multi generational Latinos and white working
Speaker 1: classes he brought in, I really think it is the
Speaker 1: people who are the crunchy liberals Like I've got an
Speaker 1: aunt who was you know, registered Democrat, voted for both parties,
Speaker 1: but more Democrat than Republican, but she voted for Trump
Speaker 1: primarily because she was supported RFK. And I know I
Speaker 1: have a friend who is not voted for a Republican
Speaker 1: since John McCain, and she voted for She voted. She
Speaker 1: she hates Trump, but I think she did vote for
Speaker 1: him because of RFK, because she's so concerned over food
Speaker 1: and she's got two young boys. I think that that
Speaker 1: is a demographic. I mean, the media can not g
Speaker 1: it and make fun of it, but I know so
Speaker 1: many if you go on Instagram, I mean there are
Speaker 1: the member of people giving light health food advice out
Speaker 1: and health advice out is I mean there's an entire
Speaker 1: underground economy of people doing this because people are there
Speaker 1: and people look at Europe and they say, okay, they
Speaker 1: all smoke, but they're all living longer than us. So
Speaker 1: is it that you can smoke cigarettes and not eat
Speaker 1: junk food and then there's Donald Trump but you could
Speaker 1: eat jump food but not smoke cigarettes. What is going
Speaker 1: on where there is this lifestyle balance? And how do
Speaker 1: we fix it? And why do why when I go
Speaker 1: to Europe does the food just or not just Europe
Speaker 1: but Canada is real bunch of places, But why does
Speaker 1: the food genuinely taste better? Why is it more filling.
Speaker 1: Why do I not have like hunger crunches? What is
Speaker 1: going on? When I after my trip to Europe and
Speaker 1: I came back, I was like, I'm hungry all the
Speaker 1: time and I'm definitely eating more than I ate there
Speaker 1: Why is this happening? So there's there's that big question.
Speaker 1: I think that that is the group. But as far
Speaker 1: as like the social conservatives and foreign policy, I think
Speaker 1: JD is more in line with Trump than than other
Speaker 1: people than people think, you know, although he's obviously a
Speaker 1: fairly devout Catholic who converted to the religion, you know.
Speaker 1: So I mean, I don't know. That's why I think.
Speaker 1: I don't think that there's there was probably anyone who
Speaker 1: would take that mandle if JD wanted to pick it up.
Speaker 3: See what you laid out about R. K.
Speaker 2: Junior is exactly what bothers me about him, because I
Speaker 2: feel like he takes advantage of poor people. Like if
Speaker 2: you took people out of the equation, Americans are much
Speaker 2: healthier than every other country. It's a very specific population
Speaker 2: that has all the diabetes and all of the heart
Speaker 2: problems and all of the obesity, and it's because they're
Speaker 2: poor and so they don't have time to cook and
Speaker 2: work out the way that rich people do in order
Speaker 2: to stay healthy. And I think that RFK Junior gives
Speaker 2: hope to people like you. Imagine being like a working
Speaker 2: class mom working two jobs and having a severely autistic
Speaker 2: child and other children that you're trying to take care of,
Speaker 2: like while having absolutely no money and absolutely no time
Speaker 2: and no support system, and like it's unbearable to consider.
Speaker 2: And instead of being like, Okay, what are we doing
Speaker 2: as a society, Like that's such that you know, this
Speaker 2: person who could have very easily supported a family if
Speaker 2: she was working as a manicurist in the seventies, you know,
Speaker 2: now is like struggling so much. He came out and said, oh, well,
Speaker 2: it's big pharma. It's like the color of the dye
Speaker 2: in the food, you know what I mean. It's like
Speaker 2: you look at poor people in America who are like
Speaker 2: really really sick, and it's all like it's all kind
Speaker 2: of in certain populations if you take them out, like
Speaker 2: we're very healthy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like a lot of obese is very confined
Speaker 1: to black people, anti hispacs into poor whites. That's one
Speaker 1: hundred percent true. But at the same time he's rich.
Speaker 2: He doesn't know anybody like that.
Speaker 1: He always knows that rich, honestly. I mean, but I
Speaker 1: think the bigger part is though. But I want to
Speaker 1: say two things kind of One. For thinnest state today,
Speaker 1: which is Colorado, is fatter than our fattest state in
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety. And that's not all big farmer. That's not
Speaker 1: all food, that's not all everything. That's a lot of
Speaker 1: choices a lot of people made over time. That is true.
Speaker 1: And I don't know why we have like red dye
Speaker 1: number two was banned from makeup in the nineteen nineties
Speaker 1: early nineteen.
Speaker 2: I support everything that he's doing under the auspices of
Speaker 2: like the Trump restraints. Like, yeah, that's great. I mean,
Speaker 2: I support that. I don't want red dye in my food.
Speaker 2: I don't understand, like I support all the healthy stuff.
Speaker 2: It's just like if you would fix the economy, people
Speaker 2: would be much healthier.
Speaker 1: We're saying, don't give poor people the dreams of the're
Speaker 1: all going to be super healthy tomorrow by you know,
Speaker 1: making a few you know, I agree with that one
Speaker 1: hundred and.
Speaker 2: Hysteriracy stuff around vaccines I think is horrible, Like and
Speaker 2: the fact that he made two million dollars off of
Speaker 2: getting people to sign up for stuff that said vaccines
Speaker 2: cause autism, and like, I feel like I agree with you.
Speaker 1: I person to agree with you on that. A lot of
Speaker 1: it is personal choices that people are making. No I
Speaker 1: do I perpletely agree with you. I read a book
Speaker 1: about him, and there were I heard two books of
Speaker 1: I'm actually and there was like some choices that he
Speaker 1: made in his life were very questionable that I did not.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh, the same, I should be president.
Speaker 1: I his divorce, his first divorce is really really ugly.
Speaker 1: I and ugly on his part. But I think that
Speaker 1: it's just there is a health problem in our country
Speaker 1: where people are just chronically ill. And yeah, a lot
Speaker 1: of it is because you're eating garbage and it's convenient
Speaker 1: for you.
Speaker 2: And we don't have preventative medicine. I think that's another thing,
Speaker 2: is like doctors don't get paid for preventative services they
Speaker 2: do in Europe, and so people go to see the
Speaker 2: doctor twice a year and they have a relationship and
Speaker 2: things are caught earlier, and like that would that would
Speaker 2: make a huge difference. Just force medicare to pay for
Speaker 2: preventative visits like that would make a huge difference. But
Speaker 2: that's not the kind of thing that like anybody sort
Speaker 2: of talking about it. I think healthcare is like it
Speaker 2: basically like it's a really big deal. It's the only
Speaker 2: thing the Democrats like have like a claim to him,
Speaker 2: not saying they're like doing well on your you know.
Speaker 2: But like so I think that that's and I think
Speaker 2: Trump understood that because he's brilliant understanding what the electorate wants,
Speaker 2: and he sort of slotted RFK Junior into that position,
Speaker 2: which I think was very smart, like helped him a
Speaker 2: lot in terms of winning. But like, I just wish
Speaker 2: there was another I love that he picked a liberal
Speaker 2: for that, I just wish it would have been a
Speaker 2: different one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that there, I think, but what we're
Speaker 1: talking about two different types of voters. Like my friend
Speaker 1: who like hated Trump a voted for him because of RFK.
Speaker 1: She's not a lower income person. She's a higher income person.
Speaker 1: And she's like a suburban mom who would be She's
Speaker 1: just I mean, she would put her kids in a
Speaker 1: bubble if she could. She's just that kind of person.
Speaker 1: I think the working class person, and I know a
Speaker 1: lot of them who are frankly overweight or don't live
Speaker 1: the healthiest lifestyle. I don't think they voted for Trump
Speaker 1: for that reason because I'm not sure they think that
Speaker 1: it's what's going on there is wrong, and I think
Speaker 1: to improve their life you kind of have to do
Speaker 1: things like why is soda on food stamps? Why do
Speaker 1: we put corn syrup still? And are things that should
Speaker 1: have sugar in them or you know, other things like that,
Speaker 1: or how much sugar we take into our diets is
Speaker 1: literally astronomical. Literally, I think that the people who voted
Speaker 1: for him were the wealthier ones.
Speaker 2: I'm the poorld right, the Maha moms. Yeah, Megan McCain
Speaker 2: talks about them very compellingly. Pro tip it's passover right now,
Speaker 2: which means that coke is making the passover coke. So
Speaker 2: juice can't eat corn on past Some juice, Saparta juice
Speaker 2: can Ashkanazi Jews don't eat corn on passover, which means
Speaker 2: that they make a coke just for us because we
Speaker 2: drink so much freaking coke, and they make it with
Speaker 2: sugar with cane sugar the way they make it in
Speaker 2: other countries, as opposed to making it with corn syrup
Speaker 2: and you can walk into any kosher supermarket and get it.
Speaker 2: Has a yellow cap on the coke and it posher
Speaker 2: for Passover and it's dulicious. So everybody in Brooklyn who's
Speaker 2: not Jewish understands that this is the time that you
Speaker 2: go into the kosher store and you load up on
Speaker 2: JUW coke because it tastes so much butter and just
Speaker 2: a pro tip, a free tip for.
Speaker 1: I didn't even drink soda, but I'm going to give
Speaker 1: it to my friends who do and be like, this
Speaker 1: is what a real sugar tastes like because I did not.
Speaker 1: I never knew that this isn't enlightening, this is this
Speaker 1: is gonna change. This is a game changer right now,
Speaker 1: ju coke is the way to go. All right, Bozie,
Speaker 1: I've had you for longer. Thank you so much for
Speaker 1: being on this podcast. Where can people read your stuff?
Speaker 1: Because they should? Everyone should be subscribing to whatever you do.
Speaker 1: Where should they? Where can they go?
Speaker 3: So sweet? I don't really have something to plug right now.
Speaker 3: You could buy my book.
Speaker 1: Second question, what can I read the articles? Or follow
Speaker 1: you on Twitter?
Speaker 2: You can follow me on Twitter at Bunger Sargon or
Speaker 2: on Instagram at batio Us. I write for the Free Press,
Speaker 2: so I guess you could read my articles there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, share them and tell them that the Free Press
Speaker 1: is the best hire that they've ever had. So thank
Speaker 1: you so so much.
Speaker 3: I really appreciate you. Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You have me passover and enjoy your jeuw Coke. Hey,
Speaker 1: we'll be right back after this. This brings us to
Speaker 1: the Ask Me Anything segment, where I take questions from
Speaker 1: listeners about anything. If you want to write and be
Speaker 1: part of the Ask Me Anything segment, you can email
Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Game Podcast dot com. That's Ryan at
Speaker 1: Numbers Plural Numbers gamepodcast dot com. This email today comes
Speaker 1: from Jacob, who says, will eleast Stefanik do better as
Speaker 1: a governor canon than Lee Zelden if she runs in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six? This is a great question. I'm from
Speaker 1: New York my entire life. I know New York state
Speaker 1: politics really really well. So I'm really I know this.
Speaker 1: This isn't a sports question. I can actually do this one. Okay,
Speaker 1: So let's look at twenty twenty two per second. In
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two election New York governor the Hocal
Speaker 1: won by six point four percent of the vote. She
Speaker 1: won by about three hundred and eighty thousand votes New
Speaker 1: York State. If you look at the state overall, which
Speaker 1: is kind of like a triangle with like a little islands,
Speaker 1: a couple islands that bounced off the end of it
Speaker 1: at the bottom end of it, New York State is
Speaker 1: really controlled by the lower nine counties. Fifty six percent
Speaker 1: of all the votes that cast in New York State
Speaker 1: come from just nine counties. That's Rockland, Westchester, the Bronx, Manhattan,
Speaker 1: State Island, Brooklyn, Queens, Nassau, and Suffolk. The rest of
Speaker 1: the state, the Hudson Valley, Upstate, Central and Western New
Speaker 1: York only account for forty four percent, and that forty
Speaker 1: four percent is shrinking as population loss is happening. Now
Speaker 1: there are only two counties in upstate New York that
Speaker 1: Stefanik would have more of an impact in because they
Speaker 1: went for Cochl last time, and her district is very
Speaker 1: close to them or represents part of them. But really
Speaker 1: the reason why Zeldon did so well is because he
Speaker 1: was able to draw up huge numbers out of Long Island,
Speaker 1: where he represented in Congress and was a well known
Speaker 1: name in Long Island and parts of New York City
Speaker 1: have had this transformation. You stawt in the last election
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four when President Trump won Long Island
Speaker 1: and when Staten Island and ended very very well throughout
Speaker 1: the rust of New York City as Hispanic and Asian
Speaker 1: voters really have left the Democratic Party in the city
Speaker 1: and droves. But the fight is in those lower nine counties.
Speaker 1: That's where this election will be one or lost. Hochel's
Speaker 1: entire margin of victory as far as raw vote count goes,
Speaker 1: comes from just Brooklyn and Man had it those two
Speaker 1: counties is what affected the entire state of New York.
Speaker 1: She couldn't have won without those two counties, without getting
Speaker 1: the vote margin she did of those counties. Now, Zeldon
Speaker 1: got an impressive forty point seven percent of the vote
Speaker 1: in those lower nine counties. That is impressive given how
Speaker 1: blue New York City is in general, but he really
Speaker 1: needed to get like forty six percent in order to
Speaker 1: win the election. Ever, is challenging Hochel, whether it be
Speaker 1: Stephanic or allegedly Mike Lawler or allegedly the county chairman
Speaker 1: of Nassau County is considered a running the Republican county
Speaker 1: Chairman of Nasal County, Bruce Blakeman is his name. They're
Speaker 1: all looking at running, but whoever is going to actually
Speaker 1: win is going to make inroads further in roads than
Speaker 1: Long Island and run up the score in Staten Island
Speaker 1: and make up ground in southern Brooklyn, which has a
Speaker 1: lot of Republican areas that could still go even further Republican.
Speaker 1: Queen's is just absolutely has tons of voters up for grabs.
Speaker 1: The Bronx Believer is now more Republican than Manhattan. The
Speaker 1: Bronx is more Republican than Manhattan, and Queens is more
Speaker 1: Republican than Westchester. You could not have said that sentence
Speaker 1: twenty years ago. It is genuinely shocking how much the
Speaker 1: state has changed, because how much Hispanic and Asian voters
Speaker 1: and some working class white voters sho we're still kind
Speaker 1: of on the fence, have changed. But if you want
Speaker 1: a Republican governor, which is possible. It's difficult, but it's possible,
Speaker 1: you're going to run up the numbers and Queens you're
Speaker 1: going to get over forty percent in Queens. You're going
Speaker 1: to run up into the mid fifties in Nasa County,
Speaker 1: close to sixty in Suffolk County. Continue to get over
Speaker 1: sixty percent in Staten Island, and then you really need
Speaker 1: to cross the thirty thirty three percent threshold over in
Speaker 1: Brooklyn and the Bronx, probably mid thirties in Brooklyn and
Speaker 1: thirty percent in the Bronx, and that should do it.
Speaker 1: Rockland is a Republican county thanks to the Orthodox Jewish
Speaker 1: vote with both I think all three candidates actually are
Speaker 1: very close to Blakeman is Jewish Defonic because you know,
Speaker 1: the face of the fight against anti Semitism now in
Speaker 1: the Congress, and Michael Lohler has deep connections with those,
Speaker 1: with those voters that he represents in Congress. So those
Speaker 1: are really the groups that you have to sit there
Speaker 1: and carve and build out the structure, and then you
Speaker 1: usually do well in upstate New York. Upstate New York's
Speaker 1: changing because a lot of Manhattan Nights, Brooklyn Knights, they
Speaker 1: have left the state, they've left the city rather and
Speaker 1: they moved to the Hudson Valley. During COVID, that's turned
Speaker 1: the area more blue than it used to be. And
Speaker 1: a lot of refugee resettlement happened in that area in
Speaker 1: Upstate New York and Central New York. So Upstate and
Speaker 1: Central New York are not what they used to be.
Speaker 1: They're not as reliably republican as they once were. The
Speaker 1: fight is really in the city, and the city will
Speaker 1: change the state. So the city in the outer boroughs,
Speaker 1: the city of Nassau, Suffic, Westchester, Rockland, those areas. So
Speaker 1: that's how you do it. You can get a Republican
Speaker 1: governor New York. It is difficult, but the battle is
Speaker 1: one and lost in the most popularly densely populated parts
Speaker 1: of the southern part of the state. Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for listening to this week's episode of the podcast.
Speaker 1: I hope that you enjoyed it. Please like it, sub
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