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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast, PODYA, All.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, Horny Coty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick as Block the College Football World Stundus.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he's.

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Speaker 2: Stumbled and football the lateral turn, the general, the inside.

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Speaker 2: Don't you be lad? I'm not gonna table up the

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Speaker 2: field the Knights go.

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Speaker 1: It's not the size of the dog in the fight.

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Speaker 1: It's the size of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 2: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the Week zero college Football betting preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm stucky in joining me as always my fellow BBOC

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Speaker 2: co host Colin Wilson. Today we will go through all

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Speaker 2: five games on Saturday that feature FBS teams. That includes

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Speaker 2: UNLV Idaho State, which got moved up to this week

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Speaker 2: due to a fight out in Vegas. I think UNLV

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Speaker 2: Idaha State played each other like three years ago unlv

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Speaker 2: Waxome in Week zero. But we'll go through all five games,

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Speaker 2: starting with farm again. We can't state Hiowa State, speaking

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Speaker 2: of which, we will be in Chicago for the Week

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Speaker 2: zero watch party. Myself, Colin Breeze Duck, Matt Mitchell will

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Speaker 2: all be there. Kerner and Raybound will be there. They'll

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Speaker 2: be running a fun NFL Fantasy draft thing at four,

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Speaker 2: but we'll be there for the start of the game

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Speaker 2: and then all through the night. So come get all

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Speaker 2: the ours from here. Anything to show up, bring whoever,

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Speaker 2: come for some drinks and with some bets with us,

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Speaker 2: hopefully we can find some winners. Hey, make sure you

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Speaker 2: download the award winning Action overcap. We'll have all of

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Speaker 2: our bets there. Anything that we add and anything that

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Speaker 2: we've already bet is there, including win totals and futures.

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Speaker 2: And we just had our recap with Duck, Breeze, Colin

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Speaker 2: and myself going over all the bets that we still

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Speaker 2: like for every single conference. It's nice and efficient episode

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Speaker 2: and if you want more insight getting ready for the season,

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Speaker 2: we previewed Paul one hundred and thirty six teams over

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Speaker 2: I don't know, sixteen seventeen hours, So make sure you

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Speaker 2: check those episodes out and then if you can. If

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Speaker 2: you enjoy this podcast at all, if you'd like the voicemails,

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Speaker 2: if you like the content throughout the season, please take

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Speaker 2: a second leave a five star review. This is the

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Speaker 2: time really helps us out. If you've already done it,

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Speaker 2: just grab like your girlfriend or wife's phone or buddy's

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Speaker 2: phone and leave one really helps us out. And do

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Speaker 2: appreciate that. But the season's here. We're previewing games next week.

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Speaker 2: We'll have multiple episodes I think three in total for

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Speaker 2: week one. We'll even split out the weekday games and

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Speaker 2: the weekend games. Starting week two, the voicemails will be

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Speaker 2: back nine to five, nine bat beat while our recap episode.

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Speaker 2: It's nice to be back, I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's completely back in the saddle right Ian. We have

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Speaker 3: market movement going on, and then I'm all of a

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Speaker 3: sudden checking weather for like a week from now for

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Speaker 3: the start of week one, noticing like this state of

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Speaker 3: Florida is gonna get whacked with heavy thunderstorms and better

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Speaker 3: jump on totals before that. You know, it feels it

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Speaker 3: finally feels real because we have market activity, market movement,

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Speaker 3: we have totals getting whacked.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Historically, of an article out on the on the

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Speaker 2: different between the teams that play first Rest versus russ All,

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Speaker 2: an article out that one has a clear distinct advantage

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Speaker 2: in playing first. But let's dive right in and yeah,

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the line's been out forever. But the big

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Speaker 2: big boys once limits and liquidity goes up week one,

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Speaker 2: like late in the week, you'll you'll you'll see some

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Speaker 2: more movement late next week once the market truly opens

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Speaker 2: up for the biggest of the big all right, well,

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Speaker 2: let's start with the first game of the college football season,

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Speaker 2: which is naturally in Dublin for farmagedon.

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Speaker 1: Whysys A Smiley short.

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Speaker 2: And it's a conference game, which I personally hate. It's

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Speaker 2: the Big Twelve, which is probably gonna be chateact. There's

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Speaker 2: probably gonna be tie breakers and this game could go

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Speaker 2: a long way and determining who eventually makes it to

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Speaker 2: the Big Twelve championship game with a chance to go

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Speaker 2: to the College Football Playoff. Obviously talking about Kansas State

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Speaker 2: Iowa State. This game will kick offf noon Eastern on ESPN.

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Speaker 2: Kansas State three point favorite, total sitting forty nine and

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Speaker 2: a half. It's been some movement, but not a ton.

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Speaker 2: When I look this game, I know that you like

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Speaker 2: Iowa State. I'm super super low on the Cyclones. I

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Speaker 2: think their defense takes a step back, and who they lost,

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Speaker 2: I think, more importantly, their offense, they lost their two

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Speaker 2: best offensive linemen, their center and left tackle both are

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Speaker 2: flirting with NFL rosters. And then they lost two thousand

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Speaker 2: yard receivers, the only two who did that besides the

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Speaker 2: Ohio State pair which did it in the National Title

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Speaker 2: with a couple extra games. I'm looking at this depth chart.

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Speaker 2: The offensive line worries me. The wide receiver room I

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Speaker 2: think is going to take a clear step back, and

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Speaker 2: I do think that Iowa State is going to get

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Speaker 2: back to multiple tight ends. That's a position of strength.

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Speaker 2: They're going to try to run the ball, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think they can run block and that Kansas State's

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Speaker 2: their strength this season and last is going to be

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Speaker 2: their run defense. Now, where I'm concerned about Kansas State

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Speaker 2: is in the secondary, and you know their secondary had,

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Speaker 2: especially at safety, there was a lot of miscommunication and

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Speaker 2: last year and they would give up explosives and it

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Speaker 2: wasn't as good as the talent would have suggested. They

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Speaker 2: lost too to the NFL, and you look at their

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Speaker 2: depth chart now, it's there's a ton a ton of

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Speaker 2: inexperience and there's a couple guys that they were counting

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Speaker 2: on that might not suit up, including Maldonado, who was

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Speaker 2: going to be their free safety, the Arizona transfer. He

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Speaker 2: might play. He wasn't on the depth chart, but then

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Speaker 2: Climbing came out and said he's questionable. Same with Newsome

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Speaker 2: that one of the other safeties who was expected to

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Speaker 2: contribute is doubtful. So their secondary, if you just look

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Speaker 2: down the depth chart, it is extremely inexperienced. However, I

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Speaker 2: don't think Iowa State is primed to fully take advantage

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Speaker 2: with their receiver room and their offensive line in its

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Speaker 2: current form, So I think the Iway State offense might

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Speaker 2: struggle on the other side of the ball. I Always

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Speaker 2: State has to replace a couple of key contributors in

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Speaker 2: that secondary, a couple that are on the NFL, and

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Speaker 2: then their leader in Freyler. I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: get a ton of pressure. Kansas State. I don't love

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Speaker 2: their wide receivers, but I didn't love their wide receiver

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Speaker 2: room last year. I think that they can pretty much

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Speaker 2: be on par I really like their tight end room,

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Speaker 2: and then when it comes to their offensive line, the

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Speaker 2: positions to watch there for me are the tackle positions. Fitzpatrick,

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Speaker 2: the Ohio State transfer, was probably gonna start, but he

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Speaker 2: got hurt. He won't be playing, so they lost a

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Speaker 2: lot of talent the offensive line coach up front. So

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Speaker 2: I'm a bit concern about the offensive line, but I

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Speaker 2: don't think I was stay can fully take advantage. Where

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Speaker 2: I think the difference in this game is is Avery

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Speaker 2: Johnson's legs. This is game one, a conference game. Kansas

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Speaker 2: State's offense is at its best when he's healthy and running,

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Speaker 2: and I think you unleasham here. The game is the

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Speaker 2: first game of the year, it's going to be the

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Speaker 2: healthiest will be all year, and it's a high leverage game.

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Speaker 2: So I think they can unleash his legs here. So

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Speaker 2: I like Kansas State. There's a ton of uncertainty here,

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Speaker 2: but I played the minus three. I make this closer

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Speaker 2: to five. What are you sing with Iowa State, Kansas

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Speaker 2: I saw you played Kansas State even though you love

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Speaker 2: Iowa State. Where do you stand with this game?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I said this on our Big Twelve podcast,

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Speaker 3: like this, the whoever wins this game is in the

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Speaker 3: I mean they are in the pole position for the

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Speaker 3: Big Twelve. I mean you discounts as a neutral, then

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Speaker 3: you get four and four for your conference schedule, home

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Speaker 3: and a way, and I liked Iowa State a lot.

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Speaker 3: And then I started digging on this game. And at

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Speaker 3: the same time I started digging on this game to

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Speaker 3: make notes for this podcast, that number got whacked down

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Speaker 3: to two and a half. I said, that is just

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Speaker 3: it's just too far. I mean I even said on

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Speaker 3: our podcast, I make this game closer to four and

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Speaker 3: a half to five. I think maybe six, Like I

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Speaker 3: got to look at the power ratings, but whatever you

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Speaker 3: make neutral site and what your prs are, it's definitely

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Speaker 3: above what two and a half is. And then I

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Speaker 3: started digging into rock O Beck's numbers. I know Iowa

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Speaker 3: State has covered five straight. They've I think they've won

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Speaker 3: four or five, and they've covered five straight against Kansas State.

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Speaker 3: But this isn't a trend's podcast. You still have to

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Speaker 3: do your homework. Well, I did my homework, and rock

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Speaker 3: obecked even though I was touting around that he's dropped

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Speaker 3: his turnover worthy play rate every single season. Have you

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Speaker 3: seen what he's done against Kansas State. It's not really good.

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Speaker 3: So last year he went thirteen to thirty five for

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Speaker 3: two tds, but he didn't have any big time throws

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Speaker 3: and he had three turnover worthy places. He just kind

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Speaker 3: of got bailed out on a thirteen to thirty five day.

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Speaker 3: So if you go back to years ago when he

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Speaker 3: played Kansas State, eight for twelve, three tds, zero big

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Speaker 3: time throws, and a turnover worthy play. Last two years,

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Speaker 3: he has fifty passing attempts and he has yet to

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Speaker 3: complete a single big time throw against Kansas State's defense.

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Speaker 3: So you're gonna say, well, they're gonna run the ball. Well,

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Speaker 3: the strength of Kansas State, like you said, is the

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Speaker 3: defensive line. They were fifteenth in line yards last year.

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Speaker 3: They were turned plenty to the defensive line. In the

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Speaker 3: linebacker unit they were fifth, and defensive rushing success rate

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Speaker 3: they were eighty third and containing EPA, which I don't expect.

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Speaker 3: So the big question is Carson Hanson. Is he gonna

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Speaker 3: be able to bulldoze through this Kansas State defensive line?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so.

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Speaker 3: You know, Kansas State lost twenty nine to twenty one

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Speaker 3: in aims last year, but they outgained Iowa State by

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Speaker 3: two yards per play in that box score last year.

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Speaker 3: We're talking Avery Johnson fumble on the opening drive, Keegan

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Speaker 3: Johnson fumbling after a reception, a miss field goal here,

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Speaker 3: like Kansas State just couldn't get out of their own

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Speaker 3: way and it's the reason they lost this game. If

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Speaker 3: everything plays out without the turnovers and the dumb mistakes,

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Speaker 3: Kansas State wins that game last year. So you know,

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Speaker 3: Avery Johnson an intentional grounding safety like I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: just unheard of shit like Iowa State voodoo that got

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Speaker 3: them through. So yeah, I did take Kansas State minus

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Speaker 3: two and a half. Am I going to come back

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Speaker 3: on Iowa State? I would be enticed at four. This

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Speaker 3: is a game that's being played over in Ireland. We've

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Speaker 3: had some wild events happen over there. If I can

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Speaker 3: middle around three, I will. For those of you that

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Speaker 3: didn't get the two and a half, I would just

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Speaker 3: sit on the Kansas State minus three. The total is

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Speaker 3: where I started doing some studying because in the past

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Speaker 3: three years when this has been played, this air LINGUS

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Speaker 3: Dublin Classic, a minimum of twenty eight points has been

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Speaker 3: scored the last three years in the first half of

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Speaker 3: this game. And if you look at these two teams

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Speaker 3: when they played each other, Kansas State and Iowa State,

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Speaker 3: when they've actually been in for them and they've played

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Speaker 3: later in the year, They've topped sixty points two straight years.

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Speaker 3: So something is going on with these two coaching staffs

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Speaker 3: where they know how to get points up against each other.

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Speaker 3: It's going to be sixty five degrees. Possibly chance of

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a wet ball. I think it's

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Speaker 3: twenty five percent chance of showers coming through. I took

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Speaker 3: the first half over on this game. It's at twenty

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Speaker 3: four at a couple of shops. Twenty four and a

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Speaker 3: half is still sitting out there this morning. These air

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Speaker 3: LINGUS Dublin series have equated to a ton of points

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Speaker 3: with offenses like Northwestern Nebraska. I mean, there have been

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Speaker 3: some bad offenses that have been over there, and they've

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Speaker 3: still scored over twenty eight points in the first half.

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Speaker 3: So I like the first half over in this game.

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Speaker 3: Kansastate minus two and a half minus three. That's the

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Speaker 3: side when you look at all the numbers that you

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Speaker 3: put out there, especially considering BECT has been horrible against

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Speaker 3: Kansas State.

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Speaker 2: And it looks like both teams had a similar travel

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Speaker 2: schedule this week. But I don't think there's any edge there.

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Speaker 2: I get what you're saying. The total. My first thought

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Speaker 2: was first half under this highway State offense. I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's built to take advantage of Kansas State's defense.

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Speaker 2: I think always state I'll still do a good job

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Speaker 2: of taking away explosive plays. But it was something that

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Speaker 2: I was looking at. But I do think I always stay.

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Speaker 2: It takes a big step back this year. But let's

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Speaker 2: move on to the second game between UNLV taking on

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Speaker 2: Idaho State. Did you play this?

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Speaker 1: I played this one.

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Speaker 2: No, but I'll get I don't even know what you

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Speaker 2: played it, so I'm interested to hear this is It's

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Speaker 2: on Mountain West Network. I'm surprised like CBS Sports Network

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Speaker 2: didn't pick it up. But this game will kick at

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Speaker 2: four eastern. I don't like the way that the week

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Speaker 2: zero schedule broke. I would have put the Hawaii game later,

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Speaker 2: Iowa State Kansas State at noon eastern and that's it

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Speaker 2: for four hours, and then you have Idaho State UNLV.

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Speaker 2: If you're in Chicago with us, that's what we'll be

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Speaker 2: doing our fantasy event and pregame for the nights sly

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Speaker 2: and then Fresno State Kansas at six thirty, Sam Houston State,

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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky at seven, Stanford White at seven thirty. So youah,

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Speaker 2: the the split of how this worked out, I'm not

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Speaker 2: in love with. But UNLV twenty four and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite tier total overs taking a bit of money

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Speaker 2: up to sixty four and a half. UNLV extremely transfer heavy.

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Speaker 2: Do you want to go down their depth chart and

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Speaker 2: it's just transfer transfer transfer, a lot of like Power

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Speaker 2: five cast offs and guys who didn't make it there.

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Speaker 2: We'll see how dam Owens puts it all together. New

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Speaker 2: head coach, new coordinators. I think their special teams could

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Speaker 2: take a big step back. That was such a strength

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Speaker 2: last year. They'll take on Idaho State. Last year, iidahose

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Speaker 2: State electric offense, horrendous defense. So they brought in a

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Speaker 2: new defensive coordinator I believe from Weaver State. But their offense,

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Speaker 2: they lose their quarterback and two all league receivers. Offensive

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Speaker 2: line brings back a lot, but that was a big

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Speaker 2: part of their offense. One of the receivers I believe

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Speaker 2: used to start at UNLV when they played Idaho State

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Speaker 2: like three years ago. To make things full circle in

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Speaker 2: this crazy college football world, but UNLV a lot of

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Speaker 2: change transfers all over the roster. Taking on an FCS

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Speaker 2: and Dan Mullen's home opener. What are you seeing here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the points bread. I want nothing to do with

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Speaker 1: this thing opened.

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Speaker 3: I think twenty seven and a half got that whacked

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Speaker 3: down to twenty one and a half up to twenty five.

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Speaker 3: It's just in a dead zone. I don't want nothing

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Speaker 3: anything to do with it. I'm sure it'll come into

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Speaker 3: play with the last play of the game, but I've

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Speaker 3: wanted the over in this game for one reason. If

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Speaker 3: you have two quarters and competition, I'm just saying, any

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Speaker 3: scenario week zero, week one, if you have two quarterbacks

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Speaker 3: that are in heavy competition and the head coach will

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Speaker 3: not tell you who's starting, He's gonna play both of them,

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Speaker 3: and they're gonna play a lot.

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Speaker 2: The quarterbacks are Alex Orgie, the Michigan transfer, and then

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Speaker 2: Anthony Calandria, the Virginia transfer, who's now in another battle

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Speaker 2: like he was last year.

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Speaker 1: We need to think outside of the box, Orgy.

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Speaker 2: My question is, though, like something I gotta figure out,

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Speaker 2: like I'm lowing you into the I like they're under

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Speaker 2: how's this going to work? Because those are two well

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Speaker 2: totally different quarterbacks.

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Speaker 3: Callandry is gonna throw his fifty yard bombs and Orgie's

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Speaker 3: gonna run his you know his zone rad and I

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Speaker 3: bet you both of them are going to work against

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Speaker 3: a really pretty terrible Idaho State defense.

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Speaker 1: Don't you know what it means to become an orgy guy?

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Speaker 3: Now, when you go to the other side and you

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Speaker 3: want to take an over in this game, you think,

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Speaker 3: can Idaho State hold up their part?

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Speaker 1: And yes you do.

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Speaker 3: Mention that they lost their quarterback and they lost a

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Speaker 3: dual threat quarterback they had two, but two years ago

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Speaker 3: they had their quarterback Jordan Cook. He got injured last year,

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Speaker 3: which is when Idaho States started scrambling. Jordan Cook is

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Speaker 3: back nearly twenty five hundred passing yards, twenty three big

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Speaker 3: time throws, twenty turnover worthy plays. The Bengals get their

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Speaker 3: almost our entire offensive lineback led by all big sky

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Speaker 3: striker Rashid He allowed. The entire line allowed just ten

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Speaker 3: sacks last year. They are a pass first team under

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Speaker 3: Cody Hawkins, the head coach. Their wide receiver Jeff Wimer

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Speaker 3: two yards per route run returns for a second season.

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Speaker 3: He played two years ago at UNLV, so he's got

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Speaker 3: something to play here for. When you go to the

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Speaker 3: UNLV defense like can Idaho State take advantage of it?

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Speaker 3: This new defensive cornier Paul Gunther, one of the top

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Speaker 3: but knopteen tacklers back. I mean, there are no defenses

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Speaker 3: that will be on the field for either side in

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Speaker 3: this game. UNLV's offense is going to be playing hard

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Speaker 3: till the final whistle because they don't know who their

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Speaker 3: quarterback is. I'm taking the over in this game. Key

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Speaker 3: number in totals in this range sixty five. Try to

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Speaker 3: get it before you get there.

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Speaker 2: A good old fashioned orgie by the way, for any

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Speaker 2: new listeners, I don't think in like fifteen years, I've

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Speaker 2: had a great week zero Week one.

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Speaker 3: If we can go five hundred, like we can, we

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Speaker 3: ward everybody of that. Like we're trying to go five

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Speaker 3: hundred the.

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Speaker 2: Next two weeks. Like my strength is like as the

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Speaker 2: season goes on, situations, schemes, news, matchups. But I gotta

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Speaker 2: have something on all all these games. Whatever called a

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Speaker 2: flaw of mine. Maybe I'll throw a fun parlay in.

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Speaker 2: But I got to join you on the over. I

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Speaker 2: mean U and V should score. We'll learn a little

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Speaker 2: bit more about UNV, probably not a ton against an

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Speaker 2: overmatched Idaho State team. All right, let's move on to

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Speaker 2: the next game between Fresno State and Kansas. This game

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Speaker 2: will kick off at six thirty Eastern on Fox. And

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Speaker 2: guess what, Kansas fans, You're back in your home stadium.

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Speaker 2: A new stadium should be a great atmosphere after last

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Speaker 2: year not being able to play at home, Kansas, what

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Speaker 2: do they open fourteen? That's where this opened. Yep, Open fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Fresno took some money. It's starting to trickle back up

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Speaker 2: a little bit. So we'll where this closes. Total open

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Speaker 2: fifty one and a half, down to fifty and a half.

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Speaker 2: This is only the second time Kansas has been a

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Speaker 2: double digit favored over an FBS school since twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 2: And that was either last year the year before against Nevada,

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Speaker 2: remember that, and they barely won. They were like twenty

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Speaker 2: eight point favorites.

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Speaker 3: Didn't cover Lyndon Wood last year, didn't cover South Dakota's

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Speaker 3: first season, Like yeah, not out of the gate usually

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Speaker 3: not yep.

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Speaker 2: Now we're gonna have a new offensive coordinator, but it's

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Speaker 2: a guy who's been there. They're gonna go back to

358
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Speaker 2: some of the codal Nikki stuff. But there's a lot

359
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Speaker 2: a lot of questions on this offense outside of really

360
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Speaker 2: thee their center was one of the best in college football,

361
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Speaker 2: and in Bryce Foster. I would say they're right guard

362
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Speaker 2: Kobe Baines. So like you have your quarterback and then

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Speaker 2: you're running backs, like you did lose probably the best

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Speaker 2: running back in school history, but high Shaw's back. You

365
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Speaker 2: had Lashawn Williams from Iowa. So like that, like battery

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Speaker 2: in the middle is okay with the rest major major

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Speaker 2: question marks like your right tackle, your left tackle is

368
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Speaker 2: a major question the wide receiver room. You lose everyone

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Speaker 2: on the other side of the ball. The defense also

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Speaker 2: lost a lot. I think the front seven should still

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Speaker 2: be okay. It's the secondary that is a major concern.

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Speaker 2: It looks like they're going to be starting at corner

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Speaker 2: a sophomore maybe a red shirt freshman at the other

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Speaker 2: corner spot, a sophomore at safety, Oklahoma State transfer at

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Speaker 2: the other safety spot. This was a defense I should

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Speaker 2: have two All Americans at cornerback. So the secondary is

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Speaker 2: a major major question mark for Kansas, not only this

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Speaker 2: week but for the rest of the season. Fresno State

379
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Speaker 2: new head coach comes in from North Dakota State. Matt

380
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Speaker 2: Enz spent a year at USC as the linebacker coach

381
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Speaker 2: and now we'll take over for Fresno. A lot of

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Speaker 2: change for Fresno. You are going to have a new

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Speaker 2: offensive look. It's going to be more run heavy. I

384
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Speaker 2: think a lot slower, more power runs instead of wide zone.

385
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Speaker 2: They have like a deep backfield. They could use four

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Speaker 2: or five backs. I'm hearing Warner Kurt Warnerson, who's well

387
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Speaker 2: travel Temple Rice. He will be the starting quarterback, but

388
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Speaker 2: his wide receiver room leaves a lot to be desired.

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Speaker 2: They lost a lot of talent. Fresno even has like

390
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Speaker 2: their offensive line like they're gonna be starting a true

391
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Speaker 2: freshman left tackle. I looks the part, but we'll see

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Speaker 2: how that works out. Their best offensive line Beyore far Spoemer.

393
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Speaker 2: He's moving from left tackle to the center. So there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of moving parts here and a new offense.

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Speaker 2: I do think the defense should be ahead of the

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Speaker 2: offense for Fresno right now. And I love the defensive

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Speaker 2: coordinator that they brought in from Northern Illinois. I think

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Speaker 2: that was a great hire. So the way that I

399
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Speaker 2: look at this, you know this this total open fifty

400
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Speaker 2: one and a half, sound of fifty and a half.

401
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 2: I've been watching the mark. I'm so tired of looking

402
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Speaker 2: at this because I want fifty one is obviously a

403
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 2: key number on how many college games end on fifty

404
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 2: one three, I don't know, three three and a half percent.

405
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,800
Speaker 2: It's probably the second.

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Speaker 1: Biggest key number fifty yeah, fifth five yeah being the biggest.

407
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Speaker 2: So that's a key number. So we're we've crossed that.

408
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,600
Speaker 2: So I'm waiting. I'm watching the market to see if

409
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Speaker 2: this gets back up at fifty one, but I don't

410
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 2: want to miss if it goes down to forty nine

411
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Speaker 2: and a half because I do like the under Why well,

412
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Speaker 2: I think the Kansas offense it's there, might not Fay

413
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 2: like Daniels in his receivers, might not be in sync

414
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: right away, and there's definitely a talent drop off from

415
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 2: last year. There's also offensive line questions. And then on

416
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 2: the other side, I don't think Fresno has the passing

417
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 2: attack to really take advantage of Kansas secondary and then tempo.

418
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Speaker 2: I expect Fresno ball control, run heavy. They're gonna be slow.

419
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,240
Speaker 2: Kansas They're always slow. They're a snail. I mean, you

420
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Speaker 2: look back two years ago or last year. I expect

421
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:00,680
Speaker 2: maybe say.

422
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Speaker 3: All thirty seconds on the clock, they take all thirty seconds.

423
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Speaker 2: So I think from a pace perspective, you know these

424
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Speaker 2: new offenses with new receivers, Yeah, I don't think either

425
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 2: offense can fully take advantage of where the other defense

426
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 2: is weak. So I like the under here. I will

427
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: be on the under even at fifty to fifty and

428
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,119
Speaker 2: a half, I've show enough value to play it. But

429
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Speaker 2: I'm fifty one is so key. I'm just watching the

430
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: market to see, like is it going to go back

431
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 2: there or is it going to start to creep down?

432
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: And then I got to hit fifteen and a half,

433
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: so I missed fifty one and a half, which was

434
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: my fault, But I like, I like the under here.

435
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 2: What are you saying in Kansas Presno?

436
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,800
Speaker 3: I lean to the under, but if you I'm not

437
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 3: going to have a play on the total. I've been

438
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 3: more focused on the side because for me, I power

439
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 3: rate this thing with Kansas above seventeen points. But I

440
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,480
Speaker 3: think the money on Presno state is real and I

441
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,160
Speaker 3: actually want to jump into it, and I've actually thought

442
00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 3: about having Fresno is an outright money line take because

443
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:03,239
Speaker 3: there are just things that are more stable with the

444
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,000
Speaker 3: Fresno side than there are with Kansas. Right now, so

445
00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 3: you know, Kansas may have one of the worst defensive

446
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:09,919
Speaker 3: line in the linebacker fronts in the Big twelve.

447
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 1: EJ.

448
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,200
Speaker 3: Warner is going to be under center with his running

449
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 3: backs bryceon Donaldson and Elijah Gilliam. There could be more

450
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 3: than that, but they have eleven combined tds in a

451
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 3: thousand yards, but nothing like too flashy. Like you mentioned,

452
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 3: it's going to be a slow plotting offense. And when

453
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 3: you mentioned, I'm glad you did say, because I got

454
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 3: to quiz you here. Warner has ten new wide receivers

455
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 3: in the Fresno program that are from the portal. Would

456
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,160
Speaker 3: you like to guess where one of those players came from.

457
00:22:32,160 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: One of the wide receiver portal came from Perdue.

458
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 1: Perdue Luke, Luke Jones.

459
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 3: Welcome from Purdue. Of course, Fresno has some Purdue flavor

460
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 3: in it too, but Jayn Ferar and Joseiah i under

461
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 3: the names. You're going to need to watch against the

462
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 3: KU secondary. And remember that KU secondary lost a couple

463
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 3: of guys in the NFL. When you look. If I

464
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 3: was playing the under I'd be a little bit worried

465
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,879
Speaker 3: that Kansas was one hundred and thirteenth in defensive rushing

466
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 3: success right one hundred and twenty six and defensive line yards.

467
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 3: Now nine of the top eleven tacklers are gone, and

468
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 3: really how much of that those bad numbers? Does that

469
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: not fall on the personnel? Does that fall on DK McDonald,

470
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 3: the the defensive coordinator there, like, I mean, his see

471
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 3: could get hot really quick. So we'll see if the

472
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: plotting offensive Fresno is able to run over them.

473
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: And can EJ.

474
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: Warner have any kind of continuity with some of these

475
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 3: wide receivers, I mean ten new ones from the portal.

476
00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 1: That's a lot.

477
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,680
Speaker 3: Now, the Fresno D I love. If you're taking the under,

478
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 3: it's because you love the Fresno D. They're expected to

479
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 3: have one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West,

480
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,920
Speaker 3: and you're going to know the name A zillion Hamilton

481
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 3: thirteen PBUs. He was ranked seventh nationally individual. Uh he

482
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 3: contributed to a secondary that was branked top twenty and

483
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 3: creating contested catches. Oh, he's insane too, He's a shutdown corner.

484
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 3: So keep this in mind about the under two. And

485
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,199
Speaker 3: the one thing that you mentioned is that Kansas is

486
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,879
Speaker 3: very slow and they like to use all of the

487
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 3: clock but remember what this Kansas offense was under codal

488
00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 3: Nikki heavy pre stat motion. Why do they run so

489
00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,160
Speaker 3: much pre stat motion. I want the defense to tip

490
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 3: the blitz. They want the defense to tip the coverage.

491
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 3: But when you have this many new faces surrounding Jalen

492
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: Daniels and you're running that much prestat motion, if you're

493
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 3: not buttoned up, there's gonna be some penalties here. I

494
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: would say this could be potentially the worst penalized game

495
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 3: for the Kansas offense, just because of all the new faces,

496
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 3: and it's the first game of the season, and Fresno

497
00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 3: is not a bad defense, and they could inject themselves here.

498
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 3: So I agree with you that the under is the

499
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 3: side that I would look at. I'm having a hard time.

500
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 3: I'm sorry. Under is the total way that I would

501
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 3: look at. But from a side stuck, I just I

502
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: don't care about my power ratings as much in week zero,

503
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 3: Week one, I do believe the Fresnoe money that's come

504
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 3: in is real. I do think Fresno could win this

505
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 3: game outright. And to me, the X factors can EJ

506
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 3: connect with the ten of the new wide receivers.

507
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 2: I project this a little north of two touchdowns, so

508
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 2: I would show a little bit of value on Kansas,

509
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: but there's a ton of them, so it's not a ton.

510
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 2: And this is week zero and one.

511
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: Of the books John from twelve and a half to

512
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 3: thirteen and a half. I think they're trying to bump

513
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 3: it back up to fourteen to take another shot on Presno.

514
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 3: I think that's what happening in the market right now.

515
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 2: I don't think I'll have anything on the side. For

516
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: what it's worth. Fresno State oh and thirty straight up

517
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: in their last thirty games played as underdollars with twelve

518
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 2: or more points. I don't know how much that matters

519
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 2: this year's team, but yeah, I expect face slow receiving rooms,

520
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 2: not that scary. I like the Fresno DC higher and

521
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 2: I think the Kansas front seven can hold up. I

522
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 2: think there's a lot of things working in favor for

523
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 2: the under which I will be on. But I'm watching

524
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 2: the market. Make sure you pay attention to the action

525
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: over at.

526
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 1: All.

527
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,119
Speaker 2: Right, let's move on to the two other games in

528
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 2: the night slate. Let's talk a little Sam Houston State

529
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 2: and Western Kentucky. You want to talk about change, Look, No,

530
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: further than this game. This is this is the new

531
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 2: college football. This game is a micro God's in the

532
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 2: new college football. Let's just look at the defenses. Western

533
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,160
Speaker 2: Kentucky lost their top twelve plvelers. Samy's say, lost their

534
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,479
Speaker 2: top sixteen and a good defensive coordinator. We Ucky I

535
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,159
Speaker 2: complete rebuild on defense. They're still going to have the

536
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 2: same aggressive defense. They'll give up some explosives, try to

537
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: create some turnovers. But both these teams also have new

538
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 2: offensive coordinators, new defensive coordinators. Sam Houston State has a

539
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: brand new head coach in Phil Longo. They're going to

540
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 2: transition to the air raid. This is Aerrators air raid.

541
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: By the way, Who's going to be the quarterback? So

542
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: I don't even know where to start with this game.

543
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: There's so much that is that has changed. The only

544
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 2: really contributor to that have back is like their fourth

545
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 2: receiver and then their left tackle was pretty good. The

546
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 2: rest is brand new and their quarterback is going to

547
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 2: be Abilene Christian Maverick mcgiver. Yeah, Abilien Christian offense coordinator

548
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 2: comes in with mcgiver who was previously at Texas Tech

549
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,959
Speaker 2: before then they're going to try to re kind of

550
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: replicate the Bailey Zappie.

551
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: Magic Bailey Zappie.

552
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 2: You can get the lightning bolt in the podcast again.

553
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 2: But that's what Western Kentucky did. They did it very

554
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 2: well when Zappi and company came from the FCS levels.

555
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 2: They're going to try to do the that here this year.

556
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: But there's a lot of questions across the board, like

557
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 2: their defense. They lost some really good defensive linemen up

558
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 2: then Stock got drafted, so I don't know how this

559
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 2: is all gonna come together for Western Kentucky. It's a

560
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 2: lot of uncertainty. And then on the other side, Sam

561
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:19,160
Speaker 2: Houston State when you're going air raid Watson, the quarterback

562
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 2: last year was does not fit as an air raid guy, right,

563
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: So I think eventually the quarterback is going to be Mittower,

564
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 2: who came from Wisconsin with Phil Longo. I don't know

565
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: Watson might start the game, they might play both. But

566
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,439
Speaker 2: that adds some uncertainty into it too, because like if

567
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 2: you told me Watson's gonna start and they were gonna

568
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 2: try to run the air raid, I would be on

569
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky year. But I think you might probably see

570
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,240
Speaker 2: a good chunk of met Tower. But I don't really

571
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: know and then the Sam Houston State defense is probably

572
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 2: going to take as big of a step back as

573
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: any defense in the entire country. They lost everybody. There's

574
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 2: a lot of guys that went to North Texas with

575
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: their defensive coordinator. There's some guys that went to Power

576
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 2: for or of other guys that graduated. Like I mentioned,

577
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,479
Speaker 2: their top sixteen in snap counts are all gone. In

578
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 2: the spring, they only had three scholarship defensive linemen, one

579
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,959
Speaker 2: of them transferred. It's it's going to be a huge,

580
00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 2: huge step back. But there's a lot of uncertainty with

581
00:28:15,960 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky too, probably eight or nine transfers starting on

582
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball. New quarterback. We'll see how

583
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: it all works out. I mean, I can see there

584
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 2: being a ton of plays in this game. You know

585
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,760
Speaker 2: their raids, you gotta worry about finishing drives. Will either

586
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,919
Speaker 2: these teams are able to finish drives consistently. And then

587
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:34,719
Speaker 2: also another thing worth mentioning with the air raid is

588
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 2: a lot of times it takes time to build a

589
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:44,040
Speaker 2: back rhythm and the timing to get in sync. So

590
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 2: like or both these offense are one of them is

591
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 2: going to be completely off.

592
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: Leech hated by weeks. He hated getting out of sink.

593
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, you could see the Bowl games and anytime there

594
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 2: was an extended layoff, even weak ones to take these

595
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: air raids because it's just all about timing with the

596
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 2: quarterback and receivers. This is for what it's what Sam

597
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: used to say. It's like everyone knows this. They're like

598
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 2: the Regression Kings, like they went they won all the

599
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: one session games and got all the turn ups last year.

600
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: But like it's a brand new team. Doesn't even matter this.

601
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: There are so many moving parks in this game. What

602
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: are you saying?

603
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: No, the uniforms are the same, but nothing except Hunter Watson,

604
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 3: who's a zone read bowling ball, which does not apply

605
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 3: to what the longo offense is going to be. So

606
00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: I can definitely see maybe shortyardist situation, Watson being the

607
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: guy and.

608
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 1: Then they're going to air it out.

609
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 3: And I think, you know, I'm not going to focus

610
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: on the side here because there's too many unknown variables here.

611
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 3: I've seen plenty of film on, you know, the Abilene

612
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 3: Christian offense. What Maverick McIver was able to do. He

613
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 3: had thirty t ds, ten interceptions, thirty eight hundred yards

614
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: passing for a for Aveline Christian last year. They're gonna

615
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 3: have a wide receiver on the field, Katie Hutchison in

616
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: the slot. Three point nine yards per route run. That

617
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 3: is double what the mark is to be explosive. That

618
00:29:56,440 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 3: is insane. Western Illinois transfer Matthew Henry in he had

619
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: eleven hundred receiving yard So what Western Kentucky has on

620
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 3: the outside for Matthew McIver. They're going to be a

621
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 3: potent offense. I think from the very first snap. And

622
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 3: I think, you know, look at these offenses of keep

623
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: your eyes out for FAU, Western Kentucky, Utah, Oklahoma, where

624
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 3: you got these quarterbacks that are coming in with their

625
00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 3: offensive coordinators and you expect them to cook from day one.

626
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 3: So we'll see if they will. You know, Longo taking

627
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 3: over the Sam Houston State offense. You know there's no

628
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 3: running backs to speak of. The offense should be deep

629
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 3: ball or a three and out. Seriously, I could absolutely

630
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 3: see this being three twenty yard passes and maybe a punt.

631
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 3: I think there's going to be additional possessions in this game.

632
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 1: Now.

633
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 3: I have been touting the over on this game for

634
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 3: like two months and it's not because I think that

635
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 3: these teams are just going to have highlight reel after

636
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 3: highlight reel. It's really more what you said at the beginning, Stuck.

637
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 3: The plays in this game are going to be insane.

638
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: Like the average number of possessions in a college football

639
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: game is like thirteen and a half, right, there could

640
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 3: be eighteen per team here, and I would expect there

641
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: to be a ton of three and ounce a ton

642
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 3: of deep shots. I expect Western Kentucky maybe they need

643
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 3: a series or two before they start lighting it up.

644
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 3: But when they start lighting it up, they're not gonna

645
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 3: stop lighting it up. They're gonna keep going. So this

646
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 3: is just two teams that are just gonna take deep shots.

647
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 1: It's like a home run derby.

648
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 2: I don't even know.

649
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 3: Like it's the fact that I like to over which

650
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 3: look at all that money come in today on that

651
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 3: over I loved when I put it into the app

652
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: like two months ago, it actually dipped down to fifty

653
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 3: nine and a half and I thought, well, someone's trying

654
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 3: to shape it down to fifty nine gets whacked above

655
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 3: sixty two today. Next key total number is sixty five.

656
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 3: This is based on the number of projected possessions and

657
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: the number of projected plays in the game, and the

658
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 3: fact that we're gonna have so many possessions and the

659
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: number of plays which is going to be high in

660
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 3: this game.

661
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 2: I do know that the Samuelson State defense, if you

662
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 2: just look at their personnel and who they're replacing guys

663
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: they lost with and in addition to their diffent qrter

664
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: in Samuson State defense is going to be really bad

665
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: this year.

666
00:31:57,640 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: And Western Kentucky's offense can cook. They have some weapons

667
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 3: on the outside. Western Kentucky team total over. I think

668
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 3: when that comes out, that's probably a good one.

669
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: I might look at that.

670
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 3: I think you could put Western Kentucky in for thirty

671
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 3: five forty two somewhere around there.

672
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 2: Fascinating game. Nonetheless, we'll learn a lot about both teams.

673
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 2: So then that's one of the things that I'm excited

674
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 2: when you get these week zero games between two teams

675
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 2: that turned over a ton. I like when they playing

676
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 2: Week zero because I can really keep my eye on

677
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: and when there's not as many games. But let's move

678
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 2: on to the final game between Stanford and Hawaii. We

679
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:39,880
Speaker 2: haven't had too many disagreements so far. I think we

680
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: might disagree on this one. Hawaii will host Stanford, when

681
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:45,680
Speaker 2: is why are you going to break in the new

682
00:32:45,680 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 2: grounds of their stadium? I don't know by the way

683
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,200
Speaker 2: that's taken pre of it. Why open as a dog?

684
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 2: Now two and a half point favorite total has come

685
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: down fifty five and a half. You can find fifty

686
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,240
Speaker 2: one and a half fifty and a half out there.

687
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 2: Hawaii a lost bread and stragger, But Michael Alahaedo, the

688
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: freshman who really shined last year in limited duty against

689
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 2: some bad defenses, but he looked fantastic. He now takes

690
00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 2: over at quarterback with his top two receivers back and

691
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:16,400
Speaker 2: stan Kylie and Ashlock run and shoot offense. That's what

692
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 2: Timmy Chang wants to run about a four wide at

693
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 2: a couple other power forward transfers to the wide receiver room.

694
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: It hasn't always looked like the pure run and shoot

695
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 2: of like the old Hawaii days, but it did when

696
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 2: Alojedo was in there. One of the things that he

697
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 2: really like. You see him, he's not a huge he's

698
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 2: like what is he? I think he's like five small kid,

699
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: But he gets rid of the ball quick, which is

700
00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 2: what you need to do and shrager. He would hold

701
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 2: it too long and it costs the offense a lot.

702
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: I think this offense is going to cook now, similar

703
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: to the air Ray. This is like a timing offense.

704
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: So maybe it's out of sink early. But the one

705
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:58,719
Speaker 2: thing that gives me confidence to the WII offense is

706
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 2: al Haido came in and he was cooking right away

707
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 2: this offense. So that gives me something. Now he gets

708
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 2: to work with the offense. It's top two receivers back.

709
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 2: He had a bunch of offensive linemen that came back

710
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 2: as well, but he was cooking right away, and I

711
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 2: just loved his command of the offense. I mean, this

712
00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 2: is a guy I get it. Look New Mexico and

713
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 2: Utah State, their defenses weren't great, but he went eleven

714
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: to twelve for one to eleven and a touchdown against

715
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 2: Utah State, thirty seven of fifty seven for four to

716
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 2: sixty nine and five touchdowns against New Mexico. So there

717
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 2: was just like no ramp up period. Everything was just

718
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,759
Speaker 2: full go. It was clicking. So I like this y

719
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 2: offense this year. The defense was pretty underrated last year,

720
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: especially in the secondary, but they do lose cam Stone

721
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 2: who was outstanding. I'm surprised he's not an NFL roster yet.

722
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:48,359
Speaker 2: And then Caleb Brown, their other corner transferred to bau

723
00:34:48,440 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 2: Tech Safety Solid, their Nickels solid. I like their linebackers,

724
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 2: but the cornerbacks and the defensive tackles, those are the

725
00:34:55,400 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 2: two positions that I'm really worried about. But I think

726
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 2: that this Hawaii team's gonna be feisty, especially at home.

727
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: Chang's really struggled on the road. But I am I

728
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 2: will say I do like Hawaii. Am mad that I

729
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 2: kind of missed the number. I'm not sure how I'm

730
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: gonna play this yet. Maybe live, maybe I'll throw them

731
00:35:13,760 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 2: into fun parlay. But I'm having flat bad flashbacks when

732
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,919
Speaker 2: I bet Hawaii against Stanford a couple of years ago.

733
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 2: I got them plus eight and a half and they

734
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: closed two and a half and they got destroyed. Major

735
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,799
Speaker 2: flashbacks about that game. You have to accept that there's

736
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: gonna be You're gonna get some CLB dumpster fires, and

737
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: you're gonna be so wrong and so right. We're gonna

738
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 2: be so wrong and so right on certain teams, just

739
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 2: with all the turnover and uncertainty. But you just have

740
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: to know in week's zero in Week one. Sometimes you're

741
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 2: gonna beat the beat the close by five six points

742
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: and you're like, oh, well, I got a free winner.

743
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 2: And it doesn't necessarily work like that. The market's just

744
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:56,000
Speaker 2: gonna be wildly off on some of these teams. Stanford Meanwhile,

745
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 2: it's a mess. I mean, this was supposed to be

746
00:35:59,880 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 2: the year. And by the way, why he's in a

747
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 2: two and a half point favorite. If I didn't mention

748
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 2: that this was supposed to be the year for Troy Taylor,

749
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 2: he came into a bad situation. Team was gutted by

750
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: the portal. Well, this is supposed to be year three.

751
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,240
Speaker 2: You know. He has his guys now, he's been building

752
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,439
Speaker 2: his offense like I expected them, like if you asked

753
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 2: me like a year ago, like this is the year.

754
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 2: They probably take a leap, they get to a bowl,

755
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: they can end the run of you know, three win seasons.

756
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 2: But he gets let go for some off the field stuff.

757
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,520
Speaker 2: Andrew Luck now is running the show. He brings in

758
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 2: Frank Reich to run the show as like a temporary

759
00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 2: head coach for the season as he searches for the

760
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: new one. And this all happened in the spring and

761
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 2: then in the spring, the quarterbacks were Bachmeyer and Brown.

762
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,960
Speaker 2: They were splitting the reps. But Bachmaner transferred to BYU

763
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 2: and Brown didn't win the job. That's going to be

764
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: Ben Golderdson who transferred from Oregon State. Kind of like

765
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: your prototypical just.

766
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: Dead average replacement player level, yeah.

767
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 2: Player like they probably just right like loved his experience,

768
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 2: probably you know, over the retro freshman and he's his

769
00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: command of the offense. But this is a much more

770
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: complex offense. Frank Reig's offense is gonna be pro style.

771
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: It's gonna be slower, like complete opposite of what Taylor did.

772
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:16,799
Speaker 2: Spread it out. Do you wanted to air it out?

773
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 2: This is going to be let's run the ball, pro style,

774
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 2: play action, use our tight ends more. But do they

775
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: have the personnel to do that. I'm not sure They

776
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: had one catchback from the wide receiver room one. You

777
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,279
Speaker 2: look at their offensive line, like the left tackle is

778
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 2: gonna be the UCLA transfer who was bad. The left

779
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:39,239
Speaker 2: guard Red Shirts sophomore from Texas Texts never played sparingly bad.

780
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 2: This offensive line could be a disaster. So their dos

781
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: a lot more experience. It's going to be the same

782
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: scheme that they had last year. The coaching a lot

783
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 2: of that is more stable in the back end of

784
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 2: their secondary where I worry about Stanford the most, and

785
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 2: there's a lot to worry about their offensive and defensive lines,

786
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 2: but why he can't really run the ball? And I

787
00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 2: think Stanford's secondaries can be feisty and enough to at

788
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 2: least not get completely embarrassed. I don't know how the

789
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 2: Stanford offense is really going to operate. So my first like,

790
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about an under but it's been hit, like

791
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 2: so I don't know if I still want to go there.

792
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,800
Speaker 2: I do like, ha wwhi, that's also been hit. So

793
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: I agree with the market on both of these moves.

794
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,880
Speaker 2: What are you seeing here between Stanford and Hawaii on

795
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 2: the island?

796
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:23,279
Speaker 3: Like both of those that you said, And I like

797
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:24,759
Speaker 3: your logic about how you got there, and I think

798
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 3: there's a way to play those. But the thing that

799
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 3: is really tough with Stanford is when you try to

800
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: look at any kind of practice notes, when you try

801
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 3: to look at any summary about what's going on, you

802
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: hear Frank Reich or you hear Andy Thompson. The new

803
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 3: DC's just preach we want scheme integrity, scheme, responsibility, tackling fundamentals.

804
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 3: Energy was good energy, energy, It's like nothing that has

805
00:38:47,719 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 3: to deal with the personnel or any players that are

806
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 3: standing out.

807
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: And you know, you hear like.

808
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 2: Depth we have. We like our depth at wide receiver

809
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 2: like that's that's like you love your wide receiver room.

810
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 3: I'm not saying this is a thing, but Troy Taylor

811
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,400
Speaker 3: was fire by Andrew luck for bullying. How tough has

812
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 3: it been on these Stanford players during camp?

813
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: And I'm not.

814
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 3: Saying it applies to it, but has camp been as

815
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:09,799
Speaker 3: tough it's been?

816
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: Say?

817
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:12,359
Speaker 3: Maybe you know there are certain head coaches out there,

818
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 3: like Tom Herman would run his players so hard in

819
00:39:15,640 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 3: two A days that they'd all be hurt by the

820
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:18,880
Speaker 3: time they got to Game one, as Stanford had a

821
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 3: pretty soft time. So there's a lot of things with

822
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: Stanford that I'm just like, how can you come out

823
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 3: and even try to bet this team?

824
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 1: And so it seems like the constants.

825
00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 3: That we know, the variables that we can identify and

826
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 3: bet on this game is that the top five tacklers

827
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 3: returned for Hawaii and they should have one of the

828
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 3: best front sevens in the Mountain West. So and from

829
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 3: the Stanford side, all you have really is corner Colin Wright.

830
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 3: Outside of that, how are they stopping Hawaii on the

831
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 3: offense with micah Alojando.

832
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 1: Here's what we're dealing with. We have more.

833
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 3: Variables that we know and we trust out of Hawaii,

834
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 3: from the defensive line, from the linebacker group, and from

835
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:50,799
Speaker 3: a quarterback that we know that can hit a couple

836
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 3: of wide receivers that have been there for a while.

837
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,800
Speaker 3: That's what we know and that's why we like Hawaii.

838
00:39:55,200 --> 00:39:57,360
Speaker 3: I think the only play you can make is not

839
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 3: the full game. I think Stanford under Frank Right will

840
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 3: play a better fourth quarter than they will play a

841
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: better first quarter. I think he will be able to

842
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 3: just better than Timmy. I think that you know, he's

843
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 3: at least, you know, got pro experienced where he knows

844
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 3: how to do something at halftime. Whatever version we get

845
00:40:12,760 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 3: to Stanford in the first half, I think it's going

846
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 3: to change in the second half. I think he will

847
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 3: make adjustments and it will be a better team for Stanford.

848
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 3: I think the play here is Hawaii first half. I

849
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 3: think it's minus one twenty out there in the market.

850
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 3: I don't know if I could trust Timmy Chang full game.

851
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 3: I've seen HAWHYI do some stupid shit in the first

852
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:28,959
Speaker 3: game on the island. I've seen so many balls get dropped.

853
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 3: I've seen so many penalties that are uncalled for that

854
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 3: affects the end of the game. But we have more

855
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 3: variables we can trust in Hawaii in the first half,

856
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:36,719
Speaker 3: and I do think Stanford will be better in the

857
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 3: second half. They will be in the first half because

858
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 3: of Frank Reig. So I like Hawaii in the first half.

859
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna play a money line.

860
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: Special teams to Hawaii that if you're watching this game

861
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: as close, they do concern me. They could be real bad.

862
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: They're probably really really good. Last year they do wire

863
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 2: me a bit.

864
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 1: You're gonna have a bet on every game.

865
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 3: So I just kind of wondered, like, where are you

866
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 3: gonna wait till we get to Chicago?

867
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 1: Like Hawaii money line first half, I think is where

868
00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 1: I'm going to be.

869
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,760
Speaker 2: I don't hate that. If you're looking for a fun parlay,

870
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 2: which I'll probably have a parlay just to for shits

871
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 2: and giggles, to give myself some action throughout the day.

872
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: Make sure I'm hitting on a lot of these games.

873
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,440
Speaker 2: Just for fun. Always do that in week zero, like

874
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 2: I would go maybe K State money line Fresne under

875
00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 2: and maybe like wait or like buy it to like

876
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: fifty one and a half like because of the key,

877
00:41:24,120 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: and then Hawaii money line. So K State money line

878
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: Fresnoe under, Hawaii money line run plus four fifty ish

879
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 2: my favorite better boy. I don't really love anything, but

880
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 2: I like I played K State minus three. I show

881
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: value there. And by the way, keep an eye on

882
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,440
Speaker 2: the action work AAP. We'll be much more live in

883
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 2: the first two weeks than I do the rest of

884
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: the season. That's when I live that a lot. First

885
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: two weeks. Sometimes I'll get off things, sometimes I'll out

886
00:41:44,560 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 2: the things. Middle so Fresno, Kansas definitely will be on

887
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 2: the under there. You and I the Idaho State, you

888
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 2: like the over no real take there, Sam, Houston State

889
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky. I have no idea when over that game,

890
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:58,960
Speaker 2: and then you like the over there Stanford Hawaii. I

891
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 2: like Hawaii and the under or even though it's even

892
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 2: though both have been hit, so I'll see all I

893
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 2: approach that.

894
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 3: You know, if I was going to do a long

895
00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 3: shot parlay on the day, I'd probably do Idaho State

896
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 3: moneyline first half and Fresno State outright. And I know

897
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 3: that Oh to thirty thing bugs me a little bit,

898
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 3: but if I had to pick a dog on the

899
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 3: entire day, that.

900
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:16,960
Speaker 1: Would be the one that I would pick.

901
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:19,120
Speaker 3: But I like that money line first half on Idoh

902
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 3: State for a long shot.

903
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 2: If you're just looking from a pure variance perspective, Sam

904
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 2: Houston State money line is not a terrible play. Like

905
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 2: it's not for me. When you have two teams early

906
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 2: in the season that are brand both brand new, there's

907
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 2: just so much more variance. It's just not for me.

908
00:42:32,840 --> 00:42:36,279
Speaker 2: I'm extremely low on them. All right. That'll do it

909
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 2: for us. Hope to see someone you in Chicago Wendy

910
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:41,600
Speaker 2: City watch party. We'll be there for the start of

911
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 2: farm again. Just have college football back and then we'll

912
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 2: be heading home Sunday and then it's prep for Week one.

913
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: It's a two week one preview podcasts. We're going to

914
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 2: hit everything, so get ready. Have us loaded in your

915
00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 2: feed and appreciate all your support. We're back nine to five,

916
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,640
Speaker 2: non bad bet, but leave a five star review. Make

917
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: sure you subscribe on subscript Subscribe to tell friends, tell none

918
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 2: of me to make sure down thea de orbiting action

919
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 2: of oor Gap. Thanks to Colin for joining me, Thanks

920
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 2: to our producer my Mitro on the back end. Most importantly,

921
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 2: thanks to all of you for tuning in. I cannot

922
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 2: wait to do this again. You guys are the best. Colin,

923
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 2: I can't wait to just go through the ups and

924
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 2: downs from now through bowl season and the college football Playoff.

925
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 2: And if you haven't already, make sure you check out

926
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 2: all of our preview episodes, including our most recent one.

927
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 2: We recap our favorite bets that are still available in

928
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: the market for every conference. But that'll do it for us.

929
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,200
Speaker 2: Good be back. We will see some of you on

930
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: Saturday and the rest next week for multiple week one previews.

931
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,280
Speaker 2: Catch all later, cheers. Peace Out.

932
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

933
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

934
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one an eight hundred

935
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 1: gambler