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Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Wednesday, everybody.
Speaker 1: I hope you're all having a great week. You're halfway
Speaker 1: through it. We're almost to some relaxation this weekend. Wow.
Speaker 1: What an incredible performance from Janice, What an incredible performance
Speaker 1: from the Bucks, from Bobby Portois, from Drew Holiday. Just
Speaker 1: a Championship metal type of performance and a Pantheon type
Speaker 1: of game from Johannae Suntana Coumbo. We're gonna break down
Speaker 1: every single detail of this game. A couple of quick
Speaker 1: notes before we get started. Make sure you liked this
Speaker 1: video and subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel. We're gonna
Speaker 1: be going live every day this week, with exception of
Speaker 1: after tonight's game. There's a special thing that the Volume
Speaker 1: has planned. I will be doing a breakdown of the
Speaker 1: Warriors game. It will just be recorded and posted to
Speaker 1: YouTube after the game. But make sure you come back
Speaker 1: every other day this week. We'll be going live after
Speaker 1: the final game of the night, and then make sure
Speaker 1: you follow me on Twitter and underscore Jason lt so
Speaker 1: you guys can see the basketball video that backs up
Speaker 1: a lot of the concepts that I talked about on
Speaker 1: the show. We can't start anywhere but with Joannice, I said,
Speaker 1: coming into this series and a lot of people you
Speaker 1: know and Boston Celtics, they produce a certain vitoryol from
Speaker 1: the rest of the basketball community, so everyone obviously has
Speaker 1: a lot of push back towards any optimism directed in
Speaker 1: the direction of But I said before the series that
Speaker 1: Janice overcoming this Celtics team would be similar to Lebron
Speaker 1: overcoming the O seven Pistons, specifically because the O seven
Speaker 1: Pistons were an unbelievably great defensive team that that's where
Speaker 1: they hung their hat and Lebron was in a situation
Speaker 1: where he had some creation support but not much, and
Speaker 1: it was basically him against Essentially, he was responsible for
Speaker 1: any and all offensive creation in that series, which reminds
Speaker 1: me a lot of the predicament that Milwaukee was in
Speaker 1: in this series on account of the Chris Milton injury.
Speaker 1: And you know, about the halfway through the series, it
Speaker 1: dawned on me that he was a lot more capable
Speaker 1: of pulling that off even than I originally thought. But
Speaker 1: even going into that game four, when Milwaukee was up
Speaker 1: two games to one, Boston still was controlling a lot
Speaker 1: of the areas of the series that made it seem
Speaker 1: as though they were in control. But there's one thing
Speaker 1: that was starting to pick up some steam, and it
Speaker 1: was Johannice. I talked to you guys a lot about
Speaker 1: the idea of breaking down the wall. It's really easy
Speaker 1: to stay, well, not really easy. It's possible to stay
Speaker 1: in front of Janice once twice, five times, ten times times.
Speaker 1: And guys like Horford and Grant Williams did a lot
Speaker 1: to start this series. But it's that fiftieth time and
Speaker 1: that sixtieth time, in that seventieth time that he starts
Speaker 1: to wear on you, and he starts to get to
Speaker 1: the point where now he's getting around you rather than
Speaker 1: having to go through you. Now the refs are no
Speaker 1: longer a factor, and he's just getting all the way
Speaker 1: to the rim. And that is the weirdest dynamic of
Speaker 1: trying to play against the honest in a playoff series,
Speaker 1: because normally you can expect to wear people down, particularly stars,
Speaker 1: because they have so much on their plate, but you
Speaker 1: honest just seems to have the reverse effect on people.
Speaker 1: It's another great Lebron comparison. It's interesting because the two
Speaker 1: of them are so different in so many different ways,
Speaker 1: but they have a lot of similarities, and one of
Speaker 1: them is both of them historically in their careers have
Speaker 1: been longevity guys. And I'm not talking about yeah or
Speaker 1: I should say endurance guys. They are guys that as
Speaker 1: the series progresses, they get stronger, and multiple times in
Speaker 1: Janice's career, especially of late, we've seen him come from behind.
Speaker 1: We saw him come from behind against Brooklyn, we saw
Speaker 1: him come from behind against uh Um, we saw him
Speaker 1: come from behind against the Suns in the finals last year,
Speaker 1: down two. Oh, do you think you got him? Do
Speaker 1: you think he's down and dead to rights. But what
Speaker 1: did I say after Game four? Game four could have
Speaker 1: been a victory lap for me, at least that's what
Speaker 1: it seemed like in the moment. Right Like I picked Boston,
Speaker 1: I picked him to win Game four. I figured they
Speaker 1: would win by ten fifteen points in that game, and
Speaker 1: they had a ten point lead late. But what did
Speaker 1: I say right after that game? I tweeted the video
Speaker 1: out in the middle of this game, right at halftime.
Speaker 1: You could find it there. I said, do not count
Speaker 1: the bucks. As long as Jana Santanna Coompo is on
Speaker 1: the floor and as long as he has a chance.
Speaker 1: That's how all time great he is. He is on
Speaker 1: a fast track to get into some very very intense
Speaker 1: basketball conversations involving all time players. That's the direction he's
Speaker 1: heading into night. On many different occasions, he hit a
Speaker 1: level that Boston could not keep up with. In that
Speaker 1: late second quarter, Boston gets up I think twelve or
Speaker 1: thirteen points. I can't remember exactly what he checks in.
Speaker 1: I think he checked back in with about four minutes
Speaker 1: left in the second quarter and just was completely unstoppable
Speaker 1: going to the rim. I think he was seven for
Speaker 1: seven from the field in the quarter, just living at
Speaker 1: the basket. Boston couldn't do anything with him, completely changed
Speaker 1: the complexion of the game. If Jhannice doesn't do that,
Speaker 1: they probably go into the halftime looking a lot like
Speaker 1: Game three or Game two when Boston was up six
Speaker 1: to forty. That's where the game was trending. That's the
Speaker 1: direction this was all headed in, and Janice staved that
Speaker 1: off and sent you into halftime down seven, and then
Speaker 1: in the I thought two like unbelievably massive three point
Speaker 1: shots from Jannice in the fourth quarter, like just like
Speaker 1: all series long stand Van Gundy has been on the
Speaker 1: broadcast talking about every time Janice takes a jump shot,
Speaker 1: it feels like giving a gift to the other team,
Speaker 1: and he was right. Joannice is shot horrifically bad from
Speaker 1: the perimeter this year. Coming into tonight, I think he
Speaker 1: was right around thirty five from mid range, and then
Speaker 1: from three it was way worse than that. So every
Speaker 1: time your honest shot a jump shot, it's been a
Speaker 1: win for the other team. But against all odds, reaching
Speaker 1: down into that greatness that's inside of him, he stepped
Speaker 1: up and he knocked down two incredibly massive three point
Speaker 1: shots in this game in the second half. One of
Speaker 1: them came right after a monster three from Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: off the dribble. Jalen Brown knocks down this ridiculous step
Speaker 1: back three. I think it put Boston up eleven, and
Speaker 1: here comes uh Janice right down early shot clock left wing.
Speaker 1: It was a it was a screw you type of shot.
Speaker 1: It was like, I'm not losing this game type of shot.
Speaker 1: And he knocked it down. And then there at the
Speaker 1: end on the offensive rebound kick out to him at
Speaker 1: the top of the key, there's a fresh clock, there's
Speaker 1: fourteen seconds. He doesn't need to shoot that, but he
Speaker 1: just stepped into it and knocked it down and then
Speaker 1: they're down the stretch. A huge offensive rebound underneath the basket.
Speaker 1: Offensive rebounding was a massive swing factor in this game.
Speaker 1: Will get to it in a little bit. Uh Bobby
Speaker 1: Portis was unbelievably at seven offensive rebounds in this game.
Speaker 1: Milwaukee had twenty second chance points. Huge swing in this game.
Speaker 1: Be honestly, two big offensive rebounds himself. Just just an
Speaker 1: unbelievable performance. This is what it looks like. This is
Speaker 1: you know, game five back in Detroit in two thousand seven,
Speaker 1: Lebron hit a level that the Pistons could not keep
Speaker 1: up with, and it changed the outcome of a series.
Speaker 1: And ironically they went home after that and in mill
Speaker 1: in Detroit or in Cleveland, Lebron didn't have a great game,
Speaker 1: and his teammates carried him that that will be the
Speaker 1: ultimate parallel as if they go back to Milwaukee in
Speaker 1: a couple of days and they win Game six at
Speaker 1: home and Jannice doesn't play particularly well, then it'll be
Speaker 1: the ultimate mirror image there. But he reached down and
Speaker 1: he had his big game five moments. And I know
Speaker 1: a lot a lot of people have had some Bucks
Speaker 1: fans complaining, why do you bring up Lebron? I bring
Speaker 1: up Lebron because he's the standard. Lebron and MJ those
Speaker 1: guys are the standard. Janice is on that trajectory. It's
Speaker 1: time for us to start having those conversations. If you,
Speaker 1: honest wins another title this year, which he's very much
Speaker 1: in that conversation, they get out of this series, then
Speaker 1: they're gonna probably be the favorite in the next series.
Speaker 1: I've been on the record that I think whoever wins
Speaker 1: this series is gonna win the East, so you're probably
Speaker 1: a favorite in the conference finals, and then anything can
Speaker 1: happened in the finals. We've seen Janice peat Phoenix. So
Speaker 1: if Janice gets this title, he wins this championship, he
Speaker 1: is fast progressing into into those conversations long before we
Speaker 1: ever even could have thought he would have. And I've
Speaker 1: just been unbelievably impressed stop obviously, Like you know, even
Speaker 1: in Boston controlling this series through four games, I just
Speaker 1: was completely blown away throughout the entire process by Janice's greatness.
Speaker 1: But there's two sides to this point, because if you
Speaker 1: guys remember after Game four, I said there were two
Speaker 1: things that would give Milwaukee a chance to win this series.
Speaker 1: I said it was Janice and his unguardability is unbelievable
Speaker 1: greatness and just the level he can reach that nobody
Speaker 1: in the world can reach. And Boston and their lack
Speaker 1: of discipline and their lack of consistency in their own
Speaker 1: pathway to success. You know, in my notes, I put
Speaker 1: and make sure I'm reading this rightly, right, I put
Speaker 1: in my notes Boston's title prospects, and I put that
Speaker 1: in there when Boston was up in the third quarter,
Speaker 1: and the reason why I put it in there or
Speaker 1: shortly after they went up by thirteen, because even when
Speaker 1: Boston was in con roll this game and I thought
Speaker 1: they were gonna win, I was becoming more and more
Speaker 1: pessimistic about them. Not necessarily for this series because at
Speaker 1: the time I thought they were gonna win, but looking forward,
Speaker 1: because they have the most dramatic difference between their ceiling
Speaker 1: and their floor out of any of the teams in
Speaker 1: this field. If you look at the contenders, and if
Speaker 1: we're looking at the real contenders in this field, it's
Speaker 1: kind of like Phoenix, Golden State, Boston, Milwaukee, right And
Speaker 1: in that list, you've got a Phoenix team that is
Speaker 1: extremely disciplined, that doesn't make mistakes, that doesn't lose their identity,
Speaker 1: that that stays like they've got that veteran presence. I
Speaker 1: don't know if it comes from Chris Paul. Uh, It's
Speaker 1: it's hard to say where it comes from, but that
Speaker 1: team is incredibly disciplined. Golden State has consistently been the
Speaker 1: most grown up team. They were literally beating a Memphis
Speaker 1: team soundly based on their own experience and their discipline.
Speaker 1: And then we go out and uh, we go out
Speaker 1: East and we look at Milwaukee, and this whole series
Speaker 1: has been a story about Milwaukee being the older, wiser, smarter,
Speaker 1: more discipline team. And you know, extensively in this series,
Speaker 1: I've been preaching about how when Boston in the half
Speaker 1: court makes smart reads and plays smart basketball, they get
Speaker 1: good shots and they win. When they get sloppy on disciplined,
Speaker 1: when they settle for long contested jump shots, when they
Speaker 1: take threes early in the shot clock, when they turned
Speaker 1: the basketball over, Milwaukee runs it right down their throat
Speaker 1: and scores. Yet even though that was clearly discipline, that
Speaker 1: was clearly evident in the film, even though Yudoka explicitly
Speaker 1: talked about this in the pregame presser in Game two,
Speaker 1: so we know Boston knows about it, they still can't
Speaker 1: help themselves. They cannot help themselves. Any time they get
Speaker 1: up in this series there have any sort of success,
Speaker 1: they revert back to the things that that that are
Speaker 1: that represent their floor. When Boston is at their peak,
Speaker 1: they have the best defense of this era, in conjunction
Speaker 1: with a great combination of guys that can all pass, drouble,
Speaker 1: and shoot, and so they're extremely difficult to guard when
Speaker 1: they play that well, right remember from January through the
Speaker 1: end of the season, so almost half the season, Boston
Speaker 1: was the number one offense in the league. And they've
Speaker 1: been better on offense than Milwaukee in the half court
Speaker 1: in this series. But that's just that only represents the ceiling,
Speaker 1: that only represents what it looks like when it's good.
Speaker 1: Their floor is considerably lower than any of those teams
Speaker 1: in that contender list they and it goes to show
Speaker 1: you the value of having a high level playmaker, someone
Speaker 1: who can really control the pace and flow of a game,
Speaker 1: which everywhere else in this field you see that guy.
Speaker 1: You see it in Janice, you see it in Chris All,
Speaker 1: you see it in Steph Curry, you see it in
Speaker 1: Draymond Green. They're those guys are very good at when
Speaker 1: they see the train getting off the tracks, they're very
Speaker 1: good at pulling it back in. And Boston doesn't have
Speaker 1: that guy. It's our biggest weakness right now. Tatum is
Speaker 1: just as likely to go rogue as any of the
Speaker 1: other guys. All series along, Jayson Tatum seems like I'm
Speaker 1: gonna fall down on every single jump shot, even though
Speaker 1: it's consistently torched us in transition, like consistently torched us.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna fall down on every jump shot, even though
Speaker 1: I haven't gotten a foul call on any of them.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep falling down. And he fell down a
Speaker 1: half dozen times at least tonight, if not more, and
Speaker 1: gets burned every single time. There was a play where
Speaker 1: he was bitching at the ref and after a made
Speaker 1: basket he went down and made a shot, ran down
Speaker 1: the floor, bitching at the ref and Wesley Matthews was
Speaker 1: wide open on the wing after a maid shot and
Speaker 1: Wesley Matthews knocked it down. But that that's the thing.
Speaker 1: He's supposed to be your leader, your alpha, And that's
Speaker 1: the problem when you've got Marcus Smart who's not a
Speaker 1: real point guard, and you've got Jalen Brown who's a
Speaker 1: number two or a number three type of guy, and
Speaker 1: you have Jayson tATu who was a number one, but
Speaker 1: he's not a great playmaker. He's not a great he's
Speaker 1: not a great you know, control the pace of the
Speaker 1: game typeic got game manager or whatever you wanna call it.
Speaker 1: They don't have that guy their best option in that
Speaker 1: type of situation. The guy who's the adult in the
Speaker 1: room is Al Horford. But the problem is he's not
Speaker 1: a perimeter initiator, so you can't have him bring the
Speaker 1: ball up the floor and put everybody into spots. And
Speaker 1: so this was the risk the whole time, and even
Speaker 1: after it was in my notes. Even if Boston would
Speaker 1: have won tonight, I would have had a serious conversation
Speaker 1: or a serious topic about on the show about whether
Speaker 1: or not I thought they could beat the likes of
Speaker 1: Phoenix or the likes of Golden State, because that lack
Speaker 1: of discipline will get you killed. The main reason why
Speaker 1: I picked Boston over Milwaukee was the Chris Middleton injury.
Speaker 1: The main reason why I was high on Boston to
Speaker 1: win the type was the Devin Booker injury. Those things
Speaker 1: were the reasons why things kind of opened up for
Speaker 1: Boston to become the favorite, and during since that time,
Speaker 1: Booker has gotten back, and they can't beat the Box
Speaker 1: despite being a minus two unter favorite to start the series,
Speaker 1: despite being a minus one ninety favorite after Game four,
Speaker 1: despite everything going like they were in control, despite having
Speaker 1: extended stretches of bad basketball, they were in control, and
Speaker 1: they still on their home court, could not close a
Speaker 1: thirteen point lead late because of their persistent need to
Speaker 1: fall back into bad habits missing box out. So this
Speaker 1: was this is on email. Udoka is gonna be incensed
Speaker 1: by this as he's looking into the film, and I'm
Speaker 1: sure he's gonna be talking about it after the game.
Speaker 1: You can't give up. I think they gave up seventeen
Speaker 1: offensive rebounds if I if I remember correctly, off the
Speaker 1: double check, Bobby Port has had seven offensive rebounds. They
Speaker 1: gave up twenty second chance points time and time again
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. They weren't boxing out. How many
Speaker 1: times in that fourth quarter did you see off like
Speaker 1: rebounds off of miss free throws. That's that's the stuff
Speaker 1: that keeps coaches up at night, and so that that
Speaker 1: that's the damn shame in all of this is like, look, look,
Speaker 1: there's two stories. There's two stories here tonight. Story one
Speaker 1: is Jansantenna COOPO is demonstrating for us that he is
Speaker 1: on an all time great trajectory. And this Milwaukee Bucks
Speaker 1: team is making their not out of this series yet.
Speaker 1: But if they escape this series, that buys you time
Speaker 1: for Chris Middleton to get back your favorite in the
Speaker 1: next round. This is all kind of lining up for
Speaker 1: them to make a run at the championship. That's story
Speaker 1: number one. Story number two is Boston the heavy favorite
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorite, Tonight minus one favorite
Speaker 1: in the series at this point before the game went out,
Speaker 1: Tonight commanded the game on multiple On two different occasions,
Speaker 1: they had a big lead in the second quarter, they
Speaker 1: blew that, and then they had a big lead in
Speaker 1: the third quarter and they blew that too. And at
Speaker 1: a certain point, like I don't know, if Bawston ends
Speaker 1: up losing this series, that's gonna be a thing that
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to confront this offseason. Who's gonna be
Speaker 1: the adult on the perimeter, who's gonna be the guy
Speaker 1: that can settle them down, because that's that's one of
Speaker 1: the weaknesses of modern basketball, and having your Jason Tatum
Speaker 1: type of guy, to be a guy who's bringing the
Speaker 1: ball up the floor and running offense. There are there's
Speaker 1: it's a unique skill. I talked with Carson all the time.
Speaker 1: I think there are four guys in the entire league
Speaker 1: that are really high level game managers Lebron, Luca don
Speaker 1: Ch and Chris Paul. A lot of people struggle with that.
Speaker 1: I think you can make a case that Steph is
Speaker 1: on that tier two. You can make a case that
Speaker 1: Janice is on that tier two. But there's not a
Speaker 1: lot of guys that can do that. And but there
Speaker 1: are lower level guys that can at least replicate that
Speaker 1: to a certain extent. They give like a Ricky Rubio
Speaker 1: type of player. Just a savvy Tias Jones is kind
Speaker 1: of doing this for Memphis right now. Just say an
Speaker 1: old school point guard, somebody that can be like, hey,
Speaker 1: let's stop taking stupid shots, Let's get into our positions
Speaker 1: and let's run sets. That's that's part of the game.
Speaker 1: I want to hit on a bunch of other specific
Speaker 1: details about this game. Let's talk about my Buddenholzer for
Speaker 1: a minute and UH specifically his strategy. So I talked.
Speaker 1: I went on with UH with Matt Moore from the
Speaker 1: Action Network on his podcast yesterday and we talked about
Speaker 1: this game, and I talked about how I wanted UH
Speaker 1: Milwaukee to drop brook Lopez out of the lineup entirely
Speaker 1: and lean into switching more. And any of you guys
Speaker 1: who have been following me for a long time, no,
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in switching as a strategy, especially
Speaker 1: juxtaposed with the drop coverages. And the main reason why
Speaker 1: is because I think it stagnates teams and it bates
Speaker 1: teams into bad isolation shot selection. Do you guys look
Speaker 1: at my Twitter feed throughout that game, even when Boston
Speaker 1: was in control, I kept begging for them to pull
Speaker 1: Brooke and they finally did in that fourth quarter. Actually
Speaker 1: it was like late third quarter buddenholz Are pulled Lopez
Speaker 1: when with Bobby Portis and Janice they started switching every screen.
Speaker 1: And what happened Boston became a jump pull up, jump
Speaker 1: shooting team with exception of a handful of aggressive drives
Speaker 1: to the rim that that it is, that it is
Speaker 1: human nature the way that switching can cause the game
Speaker 1: to denigrate down into isolation basketball. Because if you're running
Speaker 1: a pick and roll and you're are you're running in action,
Speaker 1: or you're running a set and they switch it, well,
Speaker 1: nothing's open, and so everyone's kind of staring at each
Speaker 1: other like what do we do now? What you're supposed
Speaker 1: to do to attack a switching defense is get dribble penetration.
Speaker 1: If you get dribble penetration, you force help. If you
Speaker 1: force help, you can swing to someone on the wing.
Speaker 1: If you swing to someone on the wing and they're
Speaker 1: open either the defense. The defense has to rotate and
Speaker 1: you can attack that close out, and that's when you
Speaker 1: can further compromise the defense and get wide open shots.
Speaker 1: But you have more often than not. What ends up
Speaker 1: happening is the Jason Tatum types and the Jalen Brown
Speaker 1: types get into those situations. You start switching screens on them.
Speaker 1: They start looking at Wesley Matthews and they start thinking
Speaker 1: it's time to take a pull up jump shot instead
Speaker 1: of understanding that that's exactly what they want you to do.
Speaker 1: Even if you make it, that's exactly what they want
Speaker 1: you to do, they are baiting you into that. Coming
Speaker 1: into tonight, in a hundred and eleven minutes this series,
Speaker 1: with Brooke on the floor, the Bucks had a minus
Speaker 1: eleven point five net rating, so they were getting outscored
Speaker 1: by eleven and a half points per one possessions with
Speaker 1: Brooke on the floor in eighty one minutes without Brook
Speaker 1: in this series, coming into tonight, they were a plus
Speaker 1: two point three net and they were better on both ends.
Speaker 1: Tonight they were minus three with Brooke plus six without it.
Speaker 1: And the main reason why is, like, you know, even
Speaker 1: forget about the the everything I just said about switching
Speaker 1: for a second. In addition to that, what happens when
Speaker 1: you run drop coverages, which is what they do with
Speaker 1: Brooke on the floor. What happens when you run drop
Speaker 1: coverages is players get disconnected from the ball handler because
Speaker 1: they die on a screen. There are a handful of
Speaker 1: guys in the league that do amazing at it, like,
Speaker 1: for instance, Michal Bridges is putting on a drop coverage
Speaker 1: clinic in this postseason for Phoenix. But for the most part,
Speaker 1: people die on the screens, especially because the refs allow
Speaker 1: a ton of contact on those ball screens. You're seeing
Speaker 1: you're seeing a moving pick on those ball screens almost
Speaker 1: every time for every team in the league. But what
Speaker 1: happens is the defender gets disconnected. And so now from
Speaker 1: the three point line to basically to the charge circle,
Speaker 1: Tatum Brown, Marcus Smart, all these guys are operating free.
Speaker 1: There's nobody on them. Now. Yes, they're trying to bait
Speaker 1: you into a mid range jump shot, right, So there's
Speaker 1: there's another element to that, But it's about comfort. When
Speaker 1: you are you are allowing them to be comfortable because
Speaker 1: they are disconnected from the defense temporarily in that zone,
Speaker 1: whereas when you switch everything, there's no time on the
Speaker 1: floor where you're disconnected unless you drive by somebody, and
Speaker 1: driving by people takes energy, and driving by people it
Speaker 1: takes a very intentional effort, and so because of that,
Speaker 1: it's easy to get baited out of that. It's easy
Speaker 1: to get wrapped up into taking pull up jump shots,
Speaker 1: especially when all you worked on all off season was
Speaker 1: your turnaround jump shot and your step back jump shot
Speaker 1: and your sidestep jump shot and your hesitation pull up
Speaker 1: jump shot, because those are the things you work on
Speaker 1: when you do skill work, and it's just what you
Speaker 1: get baited into and one on one situations. So to
Speaker 1: Bud's credit, and you guys could see my tweets during
Speaker 1: the game, I'm like, when is Bud gonna do it?
Speaker 1: When is Budd gonna bench Lopez? Is he saving it
Speaker 1: for later? What's going Well? It turns out he was
Speaker 1: saving it for later, and I would imagine that his
Speaker 1: thought process there was I need Brook to eat minutes
Speaker 1: for as long as possible in this early stretch in
Speaker 1: the game, and then at the end of the game,
Speaker 1: I'll be able to go to this and I won't
Speaker 1: exhaust your honest, because there definitely was some stuff in
Speaker 1: Game four where you honest was getting tired. But you
Speaker 1: know is looking forward in the series. Can't Boston out Boston? Man?
Speaker 1: I had had Boston one tonight, I would have had
Speaker 1: games six as a coin flip. Well, I was prepared
Speaker 1: to come out here and say, bet whoever the underdog is,
Speaker 1: like if Milwaukee was plus two out of Bet Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: if Boston was plus two out of Bet Boston, because
Speaker 1: to me, that Game six would have been a textbook
Speaker 1: coin flip. Had Boston lost, there, had Boston one, excuse me?
Speaker 1: Seeing as they lost. Now Boston has a huge motivational
Speaker 1: advantage going into Game six. So it's not here. Here's
Speaker 1: the thing, it's not over. Boston still has the better defense,
Speaker 1: Boston still has the better half court offense when they
Speaker 1: play the way they want to play, when they play
Speaker 1: the way they're supposed to play. But ask yourself, guys,
Speaker 1: youse Celtics fans that are listening, do you believe this
Speaker 1: Boston team can stay disciplined? They were extremely undisciplined in
Speaker 1: Game one, They were pretty undisciplined in the second half
Speaker 1: of Game two, they were really undisciplined for the first
Speaker 1: three quarters of Game three. Game four, they were really
Speaker 1: undisciplined the first three quarters, and then they locked into
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter and closed the deal. And then in
Speaker 1: Game five in the second quarter, in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: they lost their discipline again. They consistently go they they're
Speaker 1: like Jekyl and Hide. They're Jekyl and Hide basketball team.
Speaker 1: And so who are you gonna bet on? Are you
Speaker 1: gonna bet on the championship team that has an opportunity
Speaker 1: to close Boston out at home? Are you gonna bet
Speaker 1: on the better team that who knows what's gonna happen
Speaker 1: when they show up. All of the film and everything
Speaker 1: has been demonstrated. I guarantee you. Emi Udoka has said
Speaker 1: this a half dozen times to them in this series.
Speaker 1: When you guys play the right way, they can't guard you.
Speaker 1: When you guys play the right way, they can't score
Speaker 1: on you. But they just they can't. They can't help themselves.
Speaker 1: They can't help themselves. It's just it's an interesting basketball
Speaker 1: dynamic because this Boston team is damn near a per
Speaker 1: fixed team in the way they're constructed, except for the
Speaker 1: adult ball handler, the veteran savvy guard that knows when
Speaker 1: the game is getting off the rails. Think about how
Speaker 1: many times tonight, in like a pivotal situation, you would see,
Speaker 1: you know, someone throw the ball to Grant Williams and
Speaker 1: then they're like denying Tatum and denying Brown and and
Speaker 1: no one's cutting to get open. And then Grant Williams
Speaker 1: tries to put the ball on the floor and he
Speaker 1: gets the ball poked away. Or how many times you'd
Speaker 1: see Jalen Brown or Jayson Tatum drive into traffic and
Speaker 1: not really know what they're doing. It's just, it's just
Speaker 1: it's it's just the difference between high level game management
Speaker 1: and everything else that's on the table. And that will
Speaker 1: be the thing. And you know, here's the thing. If
Speaker 1: they don't add that type of guy, if they don't
Speaker 1: figure that out, then it's on Tatum to develop into that.
Speaker 1: He has to learn, He has to learn to understand
Speaker 1: what that His job isn't just to score or to
Speaker 1: create shots for his teammates, but to manage the game,
Speaker 1: to feel what's happening around you. Yeah, what what what
Speaker 1: do you guys think? You know, encouraged Janice to take
Speaker 1: those two threes in that second half Lebron used to
Speaker 1: do this a lot too. I gotta keep doing the
Speaker 1: Lebron comps with the honest. So they just have so
Speaker 1: many similarities in their in their rise. But like that
Speaker 1: three that he took after Jalen Brown took the step back,
Speaker 1: all that is is him feeling the train getting off
Speaker 1: the tracks and understanding that if he can knock that
Speaker 1: shot down and changes the complexion in the game. Same
Speaker 1: thing on the offensive rebound three, that's him feeling the situation.
Speaker 1: Even on Drew Holiday on that last second played, Drew
Speaker 1: Holiday was unbelievable tonight and eight in all three wins,
Speaker 1: he's been excellent. But on that block, the final block
Speaker 1: on Marcus Smart. How many times have they sent a
Speaker 1: random double team to Marcus Smart in this series? Almost never,
Speaker 1: on dozens of dry lives. That's Drew Holiday feeling the moment.
Speaker 1: That's him understanding the what was happening on the train tracks.
Speaker 1: He read the situation and goes, oh, Marcus isn't passing that.
Speaker 1: Marcus has his head down. He's going to the rim.
Speaker 1: And so Drew bailed on his man and Hard doubled
Speaker 1: Marcus smarton got a block. That's all just savvy, championship
Speaker 1: metal experience, everything that, everything that you see in championship teams.
Speaker 1: And the coolest part about it is like you know
Speaker 1: that's that that's the monkey that gets off your back
Speaker 1: when you win a title. There's the next level of
Speaker 1: confidence and comfort that comes from you being there before,
Speaker 1: especially when you've been down, especially when you've been behind
Speaker 1: in a series. You know what it takes to come back.
Speaker 1: But just in summation, just unbelievable performance from be honest,
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to have some really serious conversation. Is
Speaker 1: about the trajectory that he's on because it's not a
Speaker 1: Kevin or Durant trajectory, it's not a Steph Curry trajectory.
Speaker 1: He's on a Lebron trajectory. He's on a Michael Jordan trajectory.
Speaker 1: That's the pace that he's at to this point in
Speaker 1: his career. And I just I can tell I I
Speaker 1: have I have not been this blown away by how
Speaker 1: good a basketball player is since Lebron in the early
Speaker 1: two thousand tents. That's the level that he's reaching. And
Speaker 1: then you know, story of the series has been Janice's
Speaker 1: greatness and Boston's inconsistent. You know, just basketball like you
Speaker 1: and it it bit them in the ass again. I
Speaker 1: tweeted out early fourth quarter. I tweeted, Boston is playing
Speaker 1: with fire and it might get them beat. And that's
Speaker 1: what happened. Boston got beat Game six and a couple
Speaker 1: of days. Really curious to see what the line is.
Speaker 1: I I would say that I would say that it's
Speaker 1: too early to say that Boston's out. But if I'm Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: you have an amazing opportunity here to end this series
Speaker 1: and get Chris Middleton back. They're gonna be coming out
Speaker 1: like gangbusters in that game. That crowd is gonna be
Speaker 1: behind him. Janice absolutely smells blood in the water. My
Speaker 1: guess is he's gonna go for the killing Game six.
Speaker 1: So at this point, finally after five games, I have
Speaker 1: no longer on Boston. I think I think Milwaukee is
Speaker 1: gonna win this series. The playoffs are heating up, and
Speaker 1: you can make every game feel like Game seven. On
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Speaker 1: My favorite same game parlay this week is Boston to
Speaker 1: win Game five by at least five and a half
Speaker 1: points and for Drew Holiday to go under twenty one
Speaker 1: and a half. He's been great in the two wins,
Speaker 1: but in both Boston wins, Drew Holiday has scored less
Speaker 1: than twenty points. I think Boston's gonna put on a
Speaker 1: defensive clinic in Game five. That's how I think it's
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Speaker 1: on a night that one of my biggest predictions went
Speaker 1: up in flames, my prediction that the Boston Celtics would
Speaker 1: come back to beat the Bucks in six games, Jana
Speaker 1: Santanna Cumbo took that and crumpled it up and threw
Speaker 1: it in the trash. But that's part of the deal.
Speaker 1: Making Predictions is hard. You're gonna be right sometimes, you're
Speaker 1: gonna be wrong sometimes. And I was dead wrong about
Speaker 1: that at least to this point, although that series is
Speaker 1: not completely over. But one thing I was right about
Speaker 1: is I thought Golden Stayed would get their butt kick tonight.
Speaker 1: I said it was a buzz saw environment they were
Speaker 1: running into in Memphis, especially without Jaw, and I thought
Speaker 1: Memphis would beat the crap out of them, and they did.
Speaker 1: Doesn't change my prediction for the series. I still think
Speaker 1: Golden State wins this series in six games, but I've
Speaker 1: just seen this type of game before. Memphis, especially without Jaw,
Speaker 1: has an incredible physical advantage over just about everybody in
Speaker 1: everybody in the league. If you look around to all
Speaker 1: of the teams in the league, all the teams have
Speaker 1: a specific identity, right, Like Golden State is the ball
Speaker 1: movement skilled team. The right, they're undersized, but everybody's incredibly skilled.
Speaker 1: They have a ton of experience things like that. Right,
Speaker 1: They're probably the most skilled team remaining in this playoff field.
Speaker 1: Phoenix is the most like adult, grown up team. They are.
Speaker 1: They have a like an old school point guard who's
Speaker 1: thirty seven years old who runs the team. They're traditionally built,
Speaker 1: they have traditional bigs, they run traditional coverages, they have
Speaker 1: a traditional three level score that's flanking Chris Paul. It's
Speaker 1: very like old school dominant basketball team. And you look
Speaker 1: at Boston and it's like defense modern all wings switch everything,
Speaker 1: impossible to score on, all time great type of defense.
Speaker 1: And then you look at the Milwaukee Bucks and it's
Speaker 1: best player in the world, Jana Sintenna Cumpo, absolutely the
Speaker 1: best player in the world. Right, that's their identity. Each
Speaker 1: of those teams has their identity. Well, Memphis identity is
Speaker 1: that they've consistently been the biggest and most athletic team
Speaker 1: in the in the league. This year now with Jaw,
Speaker 1: it's still big an athletic, it's just different. It's more
Speaker 1: offense oriented. Jaw is a much better offensive creator, but
Speaker 1: he's a significantly lesser defensive player. And he's short and thin, right,
Speaker 1: so he struggles a little bit in physicality. Memphis when
Speaker 1: they when they play without Jaw, there's a very specific
Speaker 1: reason why they whipped everybody's asks this year, there were
Speaker 1: twenty and five without Jaw. They were like, I think
Speaker 1: six and a half points positive per one possessions with
Speaker 1: him off the floor, which was actually better than they
Speaker 1: were with him on the floor. And again everything with
Speaker 1: this has to be framed. John Morant is absolutely necessary
Speaker 1: to this team ever winning a championship because that elite,
Speaker 1: high end offensive creation, especially in the of court, becomes
Speaker 1: an absolute must at a certain point, and it will
Speaker 1: be an absolute must in Game six when they go
Speaker 1: to go to Golden State, which is exactly why I'm
Speaker 1: picking Golden State. So the ceiling is not the same,
Speaker 1: but without Jaw, they have an extremely high floor. They
Speaker 1: have a ton of size, ton of athleticism. They've been
Speaker 1: playing Steven Adams in these last two games. Without Jaw,
Speaker 1: and especially in front of that home crowd down three
Speaker 1: to one, with all of that size and athleticism, they
Speaker 1: were just going to be extremely difficult to beat. And
Speaker 1: they did. They did everything that I thought they would do.
Speaker 1: They absolutely bludgeoned Golden State on the offensive glass. Really
Speaker 1: for the first time in this series. They absolutely bludgeoned
Speaker 1: Golden State. In transition, they forced a million turnovers they
Speaker 1: dominated in the painted area. It was everything that I
Speaker 1: expected from this type of game. So why doesn't Golden
Speaker 1: State come in here and win tonight. Well, it's pretty
Speaker 1: simple to me. It's just really hard to do and
Speaker 1: it in it in it like. In order to to
Speaker 1: do this job, like which Golden State has done for
Speaker 1: the first four games of this series, to win the
Speaker 1: physical matchup against the physically superior team, you your attention
Speaker 1: to detail has to be perfect, and to their credit
Speaker 1: through four games to have had amazing attention to detail
Speaker 1: in those areas. When I say attention to detail, that
Speaker 1: means running back in transition on transition defense every single time,
Speaker 1: always being in uh in position to box out and
Speaker 1: secure rebounds. When you have guys boxing out, guys crashing
Speaker 1: from the wing right, doing all of the little details
Speaker 1: of physicality, you have to do them perfectly. Because even
Speaker 1: if I let's say I'm six six and let's say
Speaker 1: I'm boxing out a six ten guy, Yeah, if I
Speaker 1: don't box out and we get in a jumping contest,
Speaker 1: he's gonna get every single rebound. But if I sit
Speaker 1: and I box him out and push him out of
Speaker 1: the lane, yes, if the ball comes directly at me.
Speaker 1: He might grab it right over the top of me,
Speaker 1: but if it goes anywhere else on the floor, he's
Speaker 1: not getting it because I've got him pinned on my
Speaker 1: back right. So if there's a job on the floor
Speaker 1: in or or to secure those rebounds, if the people
Speaker 1: do their job, even when they're undersized, and the other
Speaker 1: job there is I'm locked in a box out my
Speaker 1: wings have to crash around me to secure to secure
Speaker 1: the rebound. All of that was on the table to
Speaker 1: do tonight. It just was gonna be hard because you
Speaker 1: knew that Memphis on every single miss was gonna crash.
Speaker 1: You knew that Memphis on every single one of your
Speaker 1: misses was gonna sprint the other way in transition. It's
Speaker 1: just really physically taxing to do so. And I think
Speaker 1: what happens a lot in these kinds of situations, especially
Speaker 1: with veteran teams, is they think, in the back of
Speaker 1: their head, we'll just get him on. We'll get him
Speaker 1: at home. When we play him at home, they won't
Speaker 1: play us hard, so it'll be easier for us to
Speaker 1: match their physicality. We'll be feeding on some of that
Speaker 1: energy from our home crowd, so we'll just do it
Speaker 1: in game six. And that's why I made that prediction
Speaker 1: because I've just seen this so many times before. My
Speaker 1: favorite example of this was the two eighteen Calves, So
Speaker 1: the two thousand eighteen Calves in the first round. In
Speaker 1: game five, they have a very similar game to UH,
Speaker 1: kind of to what happened with Golden State UH. In
Speaker 1: game four, Lebron comes out, especially in clunch and clutch
Speaker 1: time is incredible. Hits a game winner, so they basically
Speaker 1: steal the game, and Cleveland, I think, was very confident
Speaker 1: at that point we'll beat him in seven. But Indiana
Speaker 1: was the younger, faster, bigger team that Cleveland team was playing.
Speaker 1: Kevin Love att center Lebron at the four, you know, Jr. Smith,
Speaker 1: it was getting older. It was way falling off on
Speaker 1: the backside. Defensively, Kyle Korver was very old at that point.
Speaker 1: George Hill had been dealing with back spasms all year.
Speaker 1: They were an older, fragile team, and so their whole
Speaker 1: strategy was like, I don't know they will be able
Speaker 1: to match what Indiana can do to us on their
Speaker 1: home floor. Let's just punt that game and then we'll
Speaker 1: come back and get him in game seven. So what happens.
Speaker 1: They went into Indiana and just got absolutely obliterated and
Speaker 1: like like Victor Oladipo dunked all over Lebron. It is
Speaker 1: like the crowd was freaking crazy. They were feeding on
Speaker 1: all that energy. They were the bigger, more athletic, faster
Speaker 1: team playing against an older veteran team, and the older
Speaker 1: veteran team was like, I just don't feel like it tonight.
Speaker 1: And so that's what happened. And then Cleveland took him
Speaker 1: home in game seven and closed the deal. And that's
Speaker 1: what I expect from Golden State in game six. But
Speaker 1: here's the issue, and this is why you again, this
Speaker 1: is why you have to try to get this game.
Speaker 1: And it didn't work out, which happens sometimes, right, But
Speaker 1: the reason why you try to get this game is
Speaker 1: because you never want to play with fate, because anything
Speaker 1: can happen. Auto Porter Junior got hurt tonight, and we
Speaker 1: don't know the details of specifically if he's out for
Speaker 1: the series or if he just was out for tonight.
Speaker 1: We don't know the details, right but Auto Porter Jr.
Speaker 1: As we've talked about on the show, him and Andrew
Speaker 1: Wiggins are vitally important to Golden State's ability to win
Speaker 1: the rebounding battle because it's those guys that have been
Speaker 1: those wings crashing while Draymond and Kevin Looney and whoever
Speaker 1: it is has been locked in box outs underneath the basket.
Speaker 1: That wing crashing is vitally important. So Auto Porter Jr.
Speaker 1: Being out that's a loss. Now, hopefully he's okay and
Speaker 1: he's ready to go in game six, But that's why
Speaker 1: you don't play with fire. Also, anything can happen in
Speaker 1: game In game four, Golden State didn't do well against
Speaker 1: this lineup. They pulled it out late, but it it
Speaker 1: went pretty poorly for the most part. They shot terribly,
Speaker 1: They struggled against Memphis defense, They struggled in some of
Speaker 1: the physical matchups on the floor. So now I don't
Speaker 1: expect that to happen in game six, but there's always
Speaker 1: that risk. What happens if you go in game six,
Speaker 1: Step happens to be extremely cold for whatever reason, Clay
Speaker 1: happens to be extremely cold. What if Draymond gets in
Speaker 1: foul trouble. What if you know, Kevin Looney gets in
Speaker 1: foul trouble. What if Jordan Pool has Jordan Pool had
Speaker 1: a bad night tonight what if Jordan Pool has a
Speaker 1: bad night. What if a bunch of things break against
Speaker 1: you and at the same night, what if Jaren Jackson
Speaker 1: makes four threes? You know what if Tis Jones makes
Speaker 1: four makes four threes, you could find yourself heading back
Speaker 1: into Memphis for a game seven where you'll have this
Speaker 1: same physical task in front of you, except for this
Speaker 1: time you have to do it. Except for this time
Speaker 1: you have to match their physicality. That's the that's the
Speaker 1: playing with fire element of this, right. But I have
Speaker 1: seen this before. This is a textbook older team on
Speaker 1: the road struggling against the younger, more athletic team that
Speaker 1: is desperate. And that's just a really difficult tempo and
Speaker 1: pace and and fervor and energy to match. And they
Speaker 1: didn't match it tonight, but I expect him to match
Speaker 1: it in game six. I think Golden State will close
Speaker 1: the deal. They played the fire a little bit, but
Speaker 1: I still think they closed the deal in six. This
Speaker 1: is just when you see these kinds of things in
Speaker 1: the future, especially for betting opportunities. Whenever you see a
Speaker 1: veteran team that has a closeout game at home on
Speaker 1: the horizon and they're going on the road, especially against
Speaker 1: the team that's bigger and more athletic than them. Home
Speaker 1: crowds always feed that physical energy. That physical energy is
Speaker 1: what dominates in games like this. So just for all
Speaker 1: you betters out there, games like tonight are the perfect
Speaker 1: ones to jump on his betting opportunities. Still very I
Speaker 1: on Golden States, still view them as a top tier contender.
Speaker 1: Absolutely think they're going to win the series. This is
Speaker 1: just what happened sometimes in the NBA playoffs. The volume