Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we could use a little
Speaker 1: distraction on this wild card weekend. I'm Greg Rosenthal in
Speaker 1: the garage talking to Patrick Claibon, my friend in his
Speaker 1: backyard with a great little view there of his kid's house.
Speaker 1: And yes, you might have noticed we did not have
Speaker 1: our previous show at the regularly scheduled time. We ended
Speaker 1: up not going in on Wednesday to the studios because
Speaker 1: of the wildfires going on here in southern California. And yeah,
Speaker 1: as I was getting ready for this show late last night, Patrick,
Speaker 1: I thought about the word distraction. It's always a negative
Speaker 1: thing when you're talking about football teams and players and coaches.
Speaker 1: Are they distracted? And I was thinking, as I was
Speaker 1: writing these notes on like Cooper Degene versus jayden Ried,
Speaker 1: this is a good distraction because, like a lot of
Speaker 1: people here, we've just been focused on everything going on.
Speaker 1: And yeah, it's been a difficult week here in southern California.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just because the word makes you think of, you know,
Speaker 2: outside things that are taking you away from what you
Speaker 2: should be focused on. But in this instance, right with
Speaker 2: the with the literal danger, especially with you guys in
Speaker 2: your proximity to the Palisades fire. It's like everything else
Speaker 2: felt like a distraction from it, right, it was impossible
Speaker 2: to look away from and get away from. You know,
Speaker 2: we're fortunate to be down here now now miles away
Speaker 2: on the other side of town. And the most we
Speaker 2: got with some ash falling on our cars, and you know,
Speaker 2: just the continued constant rage that's always boiling in my
Speaker 2: head about how we distribute resources on our planet and
Speaker 2: seeing what everybody's dealing with. It's it's been a lot,
Speaker 2: and it's been it's been a you know, the focus
Speaker 2: and everything else has been the distraction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I appreciate everyone who has reached out and some
Speaker 1: listeners is what we're asking about it too. You know,
Speaker 1: we evacuated on Tuesday night, late night, made the call.
Speaker 1: We are back in the house. Now, we're in what's
Speaker 1: called the evacuation warning zone. Now it's I wouldn't say
Speaker 1: it's funny, but when they announced an expanded one. We
Speaker 1: are a couple of blocks north of the zone that
Speaker 1: we would have to be out of here and a
Speaker 1: couple blocks east of the zone that we would have
Speaker 1: to be out of here. So we're ready to go
Speaker 1: again if we need to. But it was good to
Speaker 1: just get back home and it's all small whatever we're
Speaker 1: going through what so many people including you know, really
Speaker 1: a close friend of mine who who lost his home,
Speaker 1: and just so many people who are going through things,
Speaker 1: and obviously the schools are closed, and our hearts just
Speaker 1: go out to everyone and hopefully we'll all get through
Speaker 1: this together. I don't want this to be like an
Speaker 1: overly heavy show because this is a distract. I do
Speaker 1: want to talk about football, but I did want to
Speaker 1: say before we do get going with the show. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we are heartbroken by the devastation and destruction from the wildfires,
Speaker 1: and families affected by these fires do need support. You
Speaker 1: can help the American Red Cross respond to and help
Speaker 1: people recover from the disasters. You can donate today to
Speaker 1: support to relief efforts by going to Redcross dot org
Speaker 1: slash NFL. And Yeah, I think there's a lot of
Speaker 1: worthwhile places that you could be looking at to like
Speaker 1: World Central Kitschien does amazing work. I've done work with
Speaker 1: Meals on Wheels West and Meals on Wheels in general
Speaker 1: is a great organization, but Meals on Wheels West, which
Speaker 1: is in Santa Monica, I work with. I worked with
Speaker 1: them back in the day, and it really made me
Speaker 1: feel more of a connection to this even than I
Speaker 1: would have anyways, because people think of the Palisades and
Speaker 1: they think, well, that's just all rich people, not that
Speaker 1: that should change your empathy for them at all. And
Speaker 1: I don't think people are aware of how many people
Speaker 1: are living around the poverty line in Santa Monica and
Speaker 1: even Palisades, and a lot of those are elderly. And
Speaker 1: one of the neighborhoods that I know is basically gone
Speaker 1: is one that I had what we call the client
Speaker 1: that I would go to every week, and those are
Speaker 1: mostly elderly or people living around the poverty line that
Speaker 1: had property, that have rent control and that have been
Speaker 1: there for a long time or for however reason they're there,
Speaker 1: and so your hearts go out. And that's a great
Speaker 1: organization as well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a because so many people are thinking about
Speaker 2: like home prices and stuff. But you have to realize,
Speaker 2: you know, you go back to nineteen seventy four or
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy five, like you could conceivably buy these houses
Speaker 2: working at minimum wage, and so the way the value
Speaker 2: goes up and people with money come in, people can't
Speaker 2: afford to sell their houses, right, tell it, you have
Speaker 2: to go somewhere. And so people had literally lost everything
Speaker 2: throughout this process. And regardless of because you know the
Speaker 2: there's there's any number of ways that people politicize things, right,
Speaker 2: but there's a it's it's impossible to look away from. Yeah,
Speaker 2: we we could collectively invest to help people, and a
Speaker 2: lot of people don't want to do that. So here
Speaker 2: we are.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh, And it's just it's just memories and stuff.
Speaker 1: You have certain memories at different plate places. We spend
Speaker 1: a lot of time at will Will Rogers Park and
Speaker 1: some of these places. Our great friend Lakeisha Westling, I
Speaker 1: thought about that with Rosenthal. Winds was a place that her,
Speaker 1: her and Chris spent so much time. If you if
Speaker 1: you live in this area and you drive on pH
Speaker 1: you know exactly where I'm talking about, and so many
Speaker 1: of those places and the business has gone. So we
Speaker 1: are hoping for the best as we're taping this, we
Speaker 1: are hoping that we're seeing some improvement with the Winds
Speaker 1: dying down and they might be coming back. So I
Speaker 1: don't I don't want to spike the football early. But
Speaker 1: we're in a good place other than Yeah, this garage
Speaker 1: and even the inside of my house is smokey as
Speaker 1: hell right now, but it is better than the hotel
Speaker 1: night that we spended driving away. So we're going to
Speaker 1: get into these games. We are going to do it.
Speaker 1: I am excited again for distraction. We've got the college
Speaker 1: football playoffs. We've been building up all season to these games,
Speaker 1: and today, structure wise, we got six games to talk about.
Speaker 1: I actually taped an interview earlier in the week as
Speaker 1: this was all just picking up with Seth Paine, one
Speaker 1: of my favorite guests that we have had, who is
Speaker 1: a Houston Texans expert who does radio there, and so
Speaker 1: we're going to end the show with my conversation with
Speaker 1: him talking about Texans Chargers. So we're going to start
Speaker 1: with the NFC, and let's get going with the Sunday
Speaker 1: night game or the Sunday afternoon game, Patrick, which is
Speaker 1: the game the NFL decides, essentially is the number one
Speaker 1: game of the weekend. And I'm not surprised that they
Speaker 1: chose Packers Eagles. Eagles are favored by four and a half.
Speaker 1: It is the Tom Brady Kevin Burkhart crew, and I'm
Speaker 1: not surprised because I do think this is the one
Speaker 1: game of the entire weekend where it includes two teams
Speaker 1: that could make the super Bowl, and Rams fans might
Speaker 1: listen to this and say, what about our game? But
Speaker 1: I'm I said what I said, This is the one
Speaker 1: game where I think I could realistically see either of
Speaker 1: these teams making the super Bowl. Even though your Packers,
Speaker 1: and I say your Packers because you had them there
Speaker 1: at the start of the season, haven't been playing their best.
Speaker 1: I do think, Patrick, that they still have the ingredients
Speaker 1: to surprise us and go on a run and play
Speaker 1: better than they have in recent weeks.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, what they have is a solid right, not great,
Speaker 2: not like it's not going to shock you with their
Speaker 2: defensive ability to stop somebody, but a solid defense, the
Speaker 2: plays consistent, that knows what they're doing. Then has a
Speaker 2: good veteran leader in Xavier mcinn and an offense that
Speaker 2: we've seen that can be streaky, can score points, especially
Speaker 2: in the postseason, as as Jordan Love and this crew
Speaker 2: did last season. Now Christian Watson's injury, I think because
Speaker 2: a lot of people view this, this unit, right, this
Speaker 2: Packers unit, especially those who play fantasy football, as oh, well,
Speaker 2: you know they're there, they're the some of their parts
Speaker 2: and and losing one person doesn't necessarily well when when
Speaker 2: the sum is what gets you to to what they
Speaker 2: can do. When you when you're able to have Christian Watson,
Speaker 2: Romeo Dobbs, who will be back for this game against
Speaker 2: the Eagles, Jaden Reid, then you can mix in Dontavian
Speaker 2: Wicks as well as Malie Keith like in these in
Speaker 2: these reserved spot roles. Yeah, the whole thing gets better.
Speaker 2: The whole thing gets worse when you lose one part
Speaker 2: of that, and I think you need that part. And so, yeah,
Speaker 2: they're banged up, but it's it's still it's still a
Speaker 2: good team that can provide a threat. Are they Are
Speaker 2: they Eagles? I don't. I don't feel like they're a
Speaker 2: significant challenger for the Eagles at this point, But you
Speaker 2: go back two Week one, they're right there, and these
Speaker 2: are two teams that the Eagles have been significantly better
Speaker 2: since then.
Speaker 1: Corect Yeah, that Week one game, since you bring it up,
Speaker 1: let's talk about it a little bit, because I think
Speaker 1: it was an interesting one to think about. Jaden Reid
Speaker 1: dominated that game in part because he was covered by
Speaker 1: Avante maddox I went back and checked. Now that's Cooper
Speaker 1: Dejen probably out there. You think about how the Packers
Speaker 1: have won offensively, Jordan Reed has some of the most
Speaker 1: dramatic splits between facing man coverage facing zone coverage. And
Speaker 1: you mentioned Christian Watson and some Packers people I really
Speaker 1: trust and listen to sometimes they really think Watson's such
Speaker 1: a big loss because no one else can do what
Speaker 1: he does and he is the man coverage beater. His
Speaker 1: speed does scare you. And yes, they are three guys
Speaker 1: in terms of their wideouts and their tight ends are
Speaker 1: great too, that have different skill sets, but he's that
Speaker 1: hard one to find, and he has a big reason
Speaker 1: why they've been why Jordan Love has been so much
Speaker 1: better against man coverage, and so I do think that's
Speaker 1: a big loss. And you think about how these teams
Speaker 1: changed since then. Another way that they've changed is I
Speaker 1: think they've taken some stuff off Jalen Hurts his plate
Speaker 1: since then. That was one of those That was one
Speaker 1: of the reasons why I think they went so run
Speaker 1: heavy after the bye was This game was a typical
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts game in September. It had a lot of
Speaker 1: amazing plays. He handled the blitzwell, he had like big
Speaker 1: time throws and he had some terrible throws. He had
Speaker 1: three or four turnover where he plays, a couple bad interceptions,
Speaker 1: and a lot of those mistakes he made were all
Speaker 1: before the bye. And then they came back and they
Speaker 1: were the most run heavy team in the league. And
Speaker 1: he's barely thrown an interceptible ball since then, and they
Speaker 1: are just a little different. So I do think the
Speaker 1: way the Eagles have changed on both sides certainly favors
Speaker 1: them since this game.
Speaker 2: They have the run game, right there's I feel like
Speaker 2: it's it's hard to because I know you're not saying
Speaker 2: that that, Sirianni as well as you know their their
Speaker 2: office coordinator who's getting some Kellen Morris back in the
Speaker 2: head coach interview game by the way, as you know,
Speaker 2: the name is starting to pop up more. But it's
Speaker 2: not like they're trying to hide Jalen Hurts. You have
Speaker 2: a guy that they could have broken the rushing record
Speaker 2: uh this season. You have the offensive line clearly that's
Speaker 2: that's capable of doing it. And so it's just they
Speaker 2: they they pulled back on the passing game. But then
Speaker 2: when you know, what do you need to improve on
Speaker 2: the past game. Like all the controversy comes out, Jalen
Speaker 2: comes out, has a great game through the air that
Speaker 2: him and and aj are, you know, dancing and celebrating
Speaker 2: touchdowns and all things are well. It's it's not like
Speaker 2: that they don't have it in the bag. They just
Speaker 2: they just pulled back a little bit and I think
Speaker 2: if need be, they can they can turn it on again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and probably the most significant thing that happened in
Speaker 1: the Week eighteen game that no one watched, including me.
Speaker 1: I will admit it. This week has been a lot
Speaker 1: seeing some crazy stuff and one of them is not
Speaker 1: that Drew Lock game. But I did listen to some
Speaker 1: coverage about it and Dallas Goddter and you could see
Speaker 1: this in the box score. He played the whole game
Speaker 1: and they made sure to get him really involved early.
Speaker 1: And that is one of the things you can do
Speaker 1: in a Week eighteen game where you're not playing most
Speaker 1: of your starters and they're totally different offense when he
Speaker 1: is on the field and they have those three weapons.
Speaker 1: And he played well in that game, caught a bunch
Speaker 1: of passes from Tanner McKee. Curious who's going to be
Speaker 1: the backup quarterback in this game. I would suggest it's
Speaker 1: probably Tanner McKee because of how well he played, and
Speaker 1: they can kind of hide behind Kenny Pickett. Jalen Hurts,
Speaker 1: we should mention is practicing. He as we're taping, is
Speaker 1: still in the concussion protocol, but he is practicing, which
Speaker 1: is normally the process that gets you cleared by the
Speaker 1: end of the week. But we can't totally eliminate the
Speaker 1: fact that he would be even out for this game.
Speaker 1: It's possible, and in that case, it would be interesting
Speaker 1: to watch who they would start, because I would give
Speaker 1: I would give them ants. I would certainly change that
Speaker 1: line from four and a half to the Eagles to
Speaker 1: maybe one for the Packers. I think Jalen Hurts is
Speaker 1: worth that much, but I would give them a chance
Speaker 1: to win because of that running game. And yeah, when
Speaker 1: I looked at the numbers, and I was really surprised
Speaker 1: how well the Packers grade out statistically, not just DVOA
Speaker 1: and everything because that includes all the turnos, but they're
Speaker 1: hitting guys in the backfield. They're a really good run defense.
Speaker 1: They've been really sound. So it's a great running game.
Speaker 1: You would think it favors the Eagles. But it's not
Speaker 1: some crazy mismatch. If the Packers are going to win
Speaker 1: this game, maybe it's there somewhat disappointing pass rush showing
Speaker 1: up just a little. I don't have much faith in that.
Speaker 1: But more importantly, I think it would be a run
Speaker 1: defense who's gotten in the backfield and mostly prevented big
Speaker 1: plays and actually has been really strong upfront all year,
Speaker 1: holding their own and at least making hurts in that
Speaker 1: passing game be the engine that drives this offense. There's
Speaker 1: a chance, like there's a chance of that based on
Speaker 1: how they've played this season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you go into the NFL Pro numbers, Greg,
Speaker 2: it's it's not in terms of the matchups, in the
Speaker 2: individual statistical categories that the Packers aren't there. It's pretty
Speaker 2: much a wash Eagles advantage. But this again is a
Speaker 2: balanced team that doesn't have like that huge glaring weakness
Speaker 2: that can make plays. And we've seen Jordan Love take
Speaker 2: some risky throws, he hits those. I guess a very
Speaker 2: good secondary. They could be right there in this game.
Speaker 2: And we've seen Eagles make the mistakes, you turn them
Speaker 2: all over a couple times. Packers right right there in
Speaker 2: this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then you have Love and Matt Lafleur, who
Speaker 1: kind of like Jalen Hurt's coming into this season. Suddenly
Speaker 1: people were wondering, how come this team has no answers
Speaker 1: against the Blitz. They really struggled the first half of
Speaker 1: the season, and they button that up completely and the
Speaker 1: numbers are now great against the Blitz in the second half.
Speaker 1: The Eagles aren't much of a big bl team. Their
Speaker 1: defense is really why I favor them in this game.
Speaker 1: But I will know Evan Williams, the really good rookie safety,
Speaker 1: and Kuay Walker, who's an important player for the Packers defense,
Speaker 1: will be back for this game. So it's really two
Speaker 1: pretty heavy, I mean healthy teams, I should say for
Speaker 1: the most part, and that Packers rushing attack has been awesome.
Speaker 1: They love to have two running backs in the backfield. Again,
Speaker 1: their their route, I think is they're staying run heavy too.
Speaker 1: These are two kind of similar teams have some effectiveness
Speaker 1: with the run. The Eagles defense is great across the board,
Speaker 1: but I think if you're gonna beat them, that's probably
Speaker 1: the way to do it. And nothing would surprise me.
Speaker 1: And yet I'll hold my like you know, spread pick
Speaker 1: for our Cynthia show. We are going to tape that.
Speaker 1: But I do like the get the Eagles in this game.
Speaker 2: A hypothetical spread on with Kenny Pickett or with Tarner
Speaker 2: McKee starting.
Speaker 1: That's what I was saying before. I would go Packers
Speaker 1: minus two with Tanner McKee, OK, and my personal line
Speaker 1: would be Packers minus like five. I think I think
Speaker 1: Tanner McKee's worth three points over Kidney Thicket.
Speaker 2: I believe Kidney Picket it's over.
Speaker 1: Although to be fair, I think he I am talking
Speaker 1: out of both sides of my mouth because I thought
Speaker 1: and it shows how good this Eagles offense is and
Speaker 1: well set up there. I thought he played pretty well
Speaker 1: when when he played in there. So maybe it's minus
Speaker 1: two for McKey minus three for Picket for the Packers.
Speaker 1: I would favor the Packers if it was a backup,
Speaker 1: wouldn't you?
Speaker 2: Or Yeah, no, the same difference. I'm just wondering the
Speaker 2: the Tanner McKee experience coming out there and beating that
Speaker 2: Wolfle Giants team is show you.
Speaker 1: Uh, it's the eyes, it's the people I trust, like
Speaker 1: bo wolf over at over at pH i Y who
Speaker 1: really loves what he saw to m Key every time
Speaker 1: I see him play in the preseason, I think he's
Speaker 1: going to have a career. I think he's He's exactly
Speaker 1: what you want out of a guy like him, which
Speaker 1: is I think next year, for instance, they can have
Speaker 1: a very you know, you just have the backup position,
Speaker 1: lockdown for cheap and it'll be totally competent. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on. Let's go to the Vikings and the Rams.
Speaker 1: That's the Monday night game. The Vikings are favored by
Speaker 1: one and a half, and so that is Joe Buck
Speaker 1: and Troy Aikman, Lisa Saulters. They announced the NFL that
Speaker 1: is that if they had to move the game, they
Speaker 1: would play it in Glendale. There's no point speculating. Inglewood,
Speaker 1: you know, is pretty far from where the fires are.
Speaker 1: The air quality right now as we tape this is terrible.
Speaker 1: It's it's we don't know enough to even talk about that.
Speaker 1: But that's that's just where that is at as we
Speaker 1: tape on Thursday morning. So, yeah, this is the game, Patrick,
Speaker 1: I I don't know who I'm gonna pick. I'm struggling
Speaker 1: with the most. I'm going back and forth. I could
Speaker 1: I could see it both ways. I could see like
Speaker 1: either of these teams actually almost blowing the other out too. Like,
Speaker 1: I actually think anything is on the table for this game,
Speaker 1: and I'm fascinated by it.
Speaker 2: Well, I think the difficulty comes right after Week eighteen,
Speaker 2: where we saw Sam Donald play categorically his worst game.
Speaker 2: Maybe not just in twenty twenty four. Maybe we got
Speaker 2: to go back to some starts here in the past
Speaker 2: few years where I think a better version, previous versions
Speaker 2: of what we expected how Sam Donald might have, might
Speaker 2: have made that a closer.
Speaker 1: It's my Week eighteen Panthers Saints start that. Actually, it's
Speaker 1: so similar and brought I've brought this up. If people remember,
Speaker 1: they probably don't so many times. It's so similar Patrick
Speaker 1: actually because he played really well for the Panthers for
Speaker 1: like six weeks. It was the best stretch of his career,
Speaker 1: and then in Week eighteen he had one of the
Speaker 1: worst games any quarterback had all season, and it just
Speaker 1: ruined the whole thing for me. The good thing is
Speaker 1: that this time he gets another game to make up
Speaker 1: for it against a much more well I wouldn't say
Speaker 1: much more favorable opponent, but stylistically, I think the Rams
Speaker 1: present maybe fewer problems than the Lions Kamakazi approach did
Speaker 1: last week.
Speaker 2: Well, a secondary that's not going to turn you over
Speaker 2: the way that the Lions will. And perhaps you know
Speaker 2: Kirby and Brian branch or where you know, I don't.
Speaker 2: I don't want to bring up the G word with
Speaker 2: Sam Donald because I don't think that's what happened. I
Speaker 2: think the Lions just had a great defensive game plan
Speaker 2: in a huge game, the biggest Week eighteen game in
Speaker 2: NFL history, if you want to quantify it by wins
Speaker 2: and losses, and they just had a great plan and
Speaker 2: it mess things up for the Vikings, who had great
Speaker 2: opportunities on all those four downs. I feel like they're
Speaker 2: still the team that got those opportunities, and they're still
Speaker 2: the team that won those fourteen games. And whereas I
Speaker 2: love for the Rams that they're able to get the
Speaker 2: rest for those Vets who needed the rest, I agree
Speaker 2: with Sean McVay being able to have that week of
Speaker 2: rest kind of superseded whoever you're going to play here
Speaker 2: in this game. Yeah, you could try to pick and
Speaker 2: choose matchups, but ultimately you're gonna have to beat somebody
Speaker 2: if you want to try to that Lombardi Trophy again,
Speaker 2: and so the Rams are going to get you know,
Speaker 2: they had this game at home and they give Stafford
Speaker 2: the time off against the team that they had already beat.
Speaker 2: Josh Cardy is really hot right now, Greg, So I
Speaker 2: understand after watching him hit back to back fifty eight
Speaker 2: and fifty seven yard field goals where you feel like, hey,
Speaker 2: the Rams get around midfield and it's going to be
Speaker 2: three points. But it's this This Vikings unit has been
Speaker 2: has been so good for so long in the season.
Speaker 2: I remember back where this was one of those Brian
Speaker 2: Flores matchups where they didn't really come after Stafford a lot,
Speaker 2: yeah in that first game and perhaps kind of paid
Speaker 2: for it. The chess match is going to be great
Speaker 2: between Flores and Sean McVay, But it's the Vikings had
Speaker 2: just been been very, very good and they were very
Speaker 2: very close to winning that game. That was one of
Speaker 2: the best of the Rams.
Speaker 1: You're talking about. It represents my struggles, Like, as you're
Speaker 1: talking about all the Rams, I'm like, oh, yeah, I
Speaker 1: am going to pick the Rams, and then you get
Speaker 1: back to the Vikings. Yeah, because it's really hard. They
Speaker 1: had one of the worst pass rushes of the season.
Speaker 1: According to next Gen stats, in that game the Vikings
Speaker 1: of any team all season long. Like in that game,
Speaker 1: it was actually the game that the Rams got almost
Speaker 1: I think they got everyone back and they were so
Speaker 1: good protecting the pass from people that, oh, I the
Speaker 1: Rams are gonna fly. Their offensive line hasn't been that
Speaker 1: consistent since necessarily they've been good, good enough, but they
Speaker 1: haven't been dominant like that. But you're right. They didn't
Speaker 1: blitz a ton and when they did it didn't get home.
Speaker 1: And when they rushed for it didn't get home. And
Speaker 1: you say the G word for Donald, how about the
Speaker 1: G words on the Vikings defense, Grenard and Ginkle Van
Speaker 1: Ginkle Because they're playing so well, especially Van Ginkle, that
Speaker 1: I do think they're playing it even at a higher level.
Speaker 1: I do have a theory though on the whole, like
Speaker 1: they could play anyone. There is a part of me
Speaker 1: that thought this was the game the Rams thought they
Speaker 1: were going to get and that they were okay with it.
Speaker 1: Just there's no way for them to use that as
Speaker 1: locker room chatter. This is just my theory. They beat
Speaker 1: them already, they're familiar. Maybe they wouldn't be that interested
Speaker 1: in Sam Darnold does their future starting Cordwick I now
Speaker 1: that I don't know about, but like I have this
Speaker 1: like just little hunch that who knows, maybe they did
Speaker 1: want this game because it was the most likely possible
Speaker 1: matchup and I was there for that game and they
Speaker 1: played their best. And that's the X factor that I
Speaker 1: can't quantify is that this is a championship group and
Speaker 1: the Vikings are coming off of a bad game, and
Speaker 1: they won a lot of tough games this year, but
Speaker 1: there is a championship core here that remains that you
Speaker 1: can't look past that. You can imagine them playing their
Speaker 1: best in this game, and if they play their best
Speaker 1: in this game, the Vikings will have to as well.
Speaker 1: Like the Vikings best I think is a little better
Speaker 1: than the Rams best. And these two teams have been
Speaker 1: pretty steady actually over the course of the season. But
Speaker 1: you know, does ultimately in a big game do I
Speaker 1: do I trust Stafford or Darnold Moore? Of course I
Speaker 1: trust Stafford a little more. It's it's an unfair comparison.
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's exceedingly unfair that the right, the age quotient,
Speaker 2: and the injury quotent a Stafford kind of up and
Speaker 2: down during some spots. But I remember before it was
Speaker 2: right there because we did the the game Center kickoff
Speaker 2: for that Rams Vikings game, and it was a simple
Speaker 2: conversation because the Rams were not at this point in
Speaker 2: their season and how we viewed them, it was kind
Speaker 2: of feeling like it was going to be a lost
Speaker 2: cause for the for the remainder of the season. But
Speaker 2: the question was like, if they can protect Matthew Stafford,
Speaker 2: And the immediate thing out of Cynthia's mouth was, Oh,
Speaker 2: they will just play well, They'll win the game if
Speaker 2: they can protect Matthew Stafford and he was only pressured
Speaker 2: on less than twelve percent of his dropbacks in that game.
Speaker 2: If they can have that duplicate performance and this great
Speaker 2: defensive line can get after cent Now, I know in
Speaker 2: the secondary, they're not going to be able to do
Speaker 2: what the Lions did. It'll be tough to for the
Speaker 2: Lions to duplicate what they did in Week eighteen, but
Speaker 2: they have that Rams puncher's chance that I like to
Speaker 2: talk about so much with with Stafford and Puka and
Speaker 2: Cooper Coup back there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the four man rush matchup is the first
Speaker 1: thing I always look at, and they were one of
Speaker 1: the teams, the team in the league that had the
Speaker 1: most pass rushers with you know, a lot of pressures
Speaker 1: because Byron Young had a really nice season. Verse ended
Speaker 1: up with the second mouse amount of rookie pressures in
Speaker 1: a long long time. And then you obviously have Fisk
Speaker 1: there as well. Like it's a good group. Kobe Turner
Speaker 1: has been playing better and can they get some pressure
Speaker 1: for me rush and then we just see excellence in
Speaker 1: terms of wide receiver play. Two of the very best,
Speaker 1: Puka coming off a season that's been a little slept
Speaker 1: on because he missed so many games. Yeah, in terms
Speaker 1: of yards per route run Patrick this season by Puka,
Speaker 1: Nakua Trail's only Steve Smith. Shout out to Steve Smith
Speaker 1: winning the Triple Crown year on a team it was
Speaker 1: crown here that that they didn't throw the ball that
Speaker 1: much relatively, you know, for a guy that just won
Speaker 1: the Triple Crown and behind Tyreek Hill's biggest season with
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and that's it. That's all
Speaker 1: Puka's behind and all time in terms of yards per
Speaker 1: route run. Like these two guys, Puka and Justin Jefferson,
Speaker 1: I believe are the top of the all time lister.
Speaker 1: Maybe Jefferson's like a like one slot lower, but whatever
Speaker 1: it is, like, they're there, they're they're they are as
Speaker 1: good as it as it gets, so that'll be a
Speaker 1: lot of fun.
Speaker 2: I don't know what it is now, but I remember
Speaker 2: a few weeks ago the Puka on all stats were
Speaker 2: like three points better in yards per carry for the
Speaker 2: team when Cool was on and off the field. And again,
Speaker 2: I don't know what it is at the end of
Speaker 2: the regular season, but it's they're just a better team
Speaker 2: with seventeen.
Speaker 1: Like part of it is because he's a good he's
Speaker 1: a good blocker, but it's it's more about the attention.
Speaker 1: And yes, this Rams team is built to run. I
Speaker 1: think that's a big thing to watch in this game.
Speaker 1: Both teams do want to run the ball. The Rams
Speaker 1: stick with it more, they're a little more consistent with it,
Speaker 1: very efficient. A lot of four and five yard gains
Speaker 1: from Kyron Williams over the course of the season. And
Speaker 1: two teams that are pretty bad and special teams. So
Speaker 1: that's just something old watch. Not so much the kickers
Speaker 1: right right now. The good call because Riiker early in
Speaker 1: the season was on fire. Now he's slumping and flipped it.
Speaker 1: But if you look at the special team in terms
Speaker 1: of the coverage units, both teams are bad.
Speaker 2: And also important to remember the cam Akers revenge game.
Speaker 1: Great, Oh, that is a good one.
Speaker 2: This is the cam Akers revenge.
Speaker 1: He legitimately wasn't thrilled with how Sean McVay treated him.
Speaker 1: Let's wrap up our NFC talk with Bucks commanders and
Speaker 1: the Bucks are favored by three in this game. This
Speaker 1: is the Sunday night game. Nice spot for Jayden Daniels,
Speaker 1: and I think it makes sense. The Washington is a
Speaker 1: sneaky national team. Now, I just I just based on
Speaker 1: how electric he has been this season, based on a
Speaker 1: dormant fan base that is large. People want to watch Jayden.
Speaker 1: And I'm glad the Bucks get the shine too, because
Speaker 1: they're one of the most fun offenses in the league.
Speaker 1: A very even matchup if you look at any number
Speaker 1: like these are similarly really good offenses. Similarly not as
Speaker 1: good defenses overall DVOA. They're tenth and eleventh on the season.
Speaker 1: They have some vulnerabilities which you would think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a bit of an offensive game, and ultimately I
Speaker 1: think it's a game where there might not be a
Speaker 1: ton of like pass rush pressure, and that usually leads
Speaker 1: to a lot of Chris Collinsworth really enjoying the quarterback play.
Speaker 1: So I'm with it. I'm looking forward to this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to top five offenses piloted by you know, guys
Speaker 2: that went high in the draft, guys that you know
Speaker 2: had a lot of postseason awards in college football. And
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield actually and the Bucks have the number four
Speaker 2: offens it's Jane Daniels with a number five offense. Now,
Speaker 2: if you change some things about that. It was Jayan
Speaker 2: Daniels's very first career NFL game that actually came against
Speaker 2: the Buccaneers. Jamel Dean was matched up against Terry McLaren
Speaker 2: and he had two receptions for seventeen yards. So like,
Speaker 2: if we're thinking about the evolution of the Commander's offense,
Speaker 2: I don't think Jamel Dean's going to run off a
Speaker 2: whole lot of attempts for Terry McLaren in this stage
Speaker 2: of jayde Daniels' rookie season. So yeah, it's tough to
Speaker 2: forecast anything other than a shootout between two teams that
Speaker 2: average north to twenty eight points per game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was Daniel's worst game. The only other contender
Speaker 1: would be his last game, which was against the Cowboys
Speaker 1: that I tend to not put too much stock into.
Speaker 1: But they also had seventeen dropbacks that gained twenty yards
Speaker 1: in that game, so it's not nothing. And it was
Speaker 1: typical of the only thing Daniels didn't do well this year,
Speaker 1: which was take a ton of sacks. He was fourth
Speaker 1: worst in the NFL in pressure to sack ratio. Baker
Speaker 1: actually is one of the three people ahead of him,
Speaker 1: So these are two guys that were protected well, Baker
Speaker 1: much better even, but when they were pressured, they took
Speaker 1: a lot of sacks. Now, Jayden Daniels's numbers though against pressure,
Speaker 1: ultimately we're still really good because he's so good scrambling
Speaker 1: and a lot of the times he doesn't take those sacks.
Speaker 1: He has such a unique profile because he takes those
Speaker 1: sacks and you think negative plays. But he was second
Speaker 1: in the entire NFL in the fewest turnover worthy play
Speaker 1: percentage in terms of PFF. So I know it's like
Speaker 1: an easy comparison to make, but there really are a
Speaker 1: lot of similarities to Robert Griffin's rookie year, which gets
Speaker 1: slept on as such an incredible rookie year, was my
Speaker 1: choice for Rookie of the Year over Andrew Lucky did
Speaker 1: win the award, and they're similar in that Griffin wasn't
Speaker 1: making any mistakes. Griffin was an extremely efficient scrambler. There
Speaker 1: was way there was more design runs for Griffin, But
Speaker 1: more than anything, the accuracy is what really reminds me
Speaker 1: of each other. They're just so pinpoint accurate. The difference,
Speaker 1: I would say is Jane Daniels does, I think show
Speaker 1: already more of the traits of getting to the opposite
Speaker 1: side of the field and his reads and just being
Speaker 1: totally composed in difficult situations that maybe Griffin never was
Speaker 1: even was even in those positions as a rookie. But
Speaker 1: that's neither here nor there. He's just a very uniquely
Speaker 1: excellent player. And that's true of Baker too, who takes
Speaker 1: some negative plays, but he's coming off Unlike Daniels, I
Speaker 1: think Baker might be coming off his best game of
Speaker 1: the season, so a little different in terms of vibes
Speaker 1: coming in if we put anything into Week.
Speaker 2: Eighteen, Yeah it was Baker again. Todd Bowles had a
Speaker 2: great laugh for earlier the season when somebody tried to
Speaker 2: compare Baker's running style, especially after the big third quarter runs.
Speaker 2: I believe in Week seven, like, hey, you know, Josh
Speaker 2: Allen and Jade Daniels and Lamar Jackson and Todd Bowles,
Speaker 2: who's had some fun at the podium this year, got
Speaker 2: the hickels like he couldn't stop laughing in the comparison,
Speaker 2: and Baker, you know, you know, said he was a
Speaker 2: serviceable runner, but it was sixty plus yards that they
Speaker 2: needed on the ground against the Saints and that comeback
Speaker 2: win which was his first ever comeback from down ten
Speaker 2: in the fourth quarter for Baker Mayfield. And yet both
Speaker 2: guys good with their feet in different capacities. Because you
Speaker 2: mentioned it was Jaden's worst game, he still had two
Speaker 2: rushing touchdowns in eighty eight yards in that open of
Speaker 2: the problem was the commander's defense in dan Quinn's unit,
Speaker 2: they just weren't there. They hadn't figured out the way
Speaker 2: that they wanted to approach things. And they've gone through
Speaker 2: multiple iterations since and they've gotten Marshaun Lattimore, who has
Speaker 2: been at practice this week, and so you know, it's
Speaker 2: been a talking point. But if Marsham was on the
Speaker 2: field for the Saints, Mike Evans would not have gotten it,
Speaker 2: would not have gotten those one thousand yards because there's
Speaker 2: no way Marsham was not jamming him with the lot
Speaker 2: of scrimmage on that last play in the game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was a coaching breakdown that apparently Darren Rizzy
Speaker 1: was very upset. It's the reason why I favor the
Speaker 1: Bucks is that Washington defense, which got better during the year.
Speaker 1: They got good enough to be okay. And there's not
Speaker 1: a huge difference statistically between the Bucks and Washington, although
Speaker 1: in Dvoa, Bucks are right around average. In the Washington's
Speaker 1: closer to twenty first twenty second, which feels about right
Speaker 1: to me. But I just can't. I think the biggest
Speaker 1: mismatch of this game is those guys who have big
Speaker 1: salaries and some production this year. Dante Fowler, Jonathan Allen Payne,
Speaker 1: Jerry Newton, the rookie. Can they get any pressure on
Speaker 1: Baker in this great offensive line? Can they stop the
Speaker 1: run with Bucky Irving. It's the group I think could
Speaker 1: be most vulnerable. Maybe Frankie Luvium pops some big plays,
Speaker 1: you know, da Mario Davis was all over the screen
Speaker 1: game the Bucks had last week, Maybe LUVU can do that,
Speaker 1: but ultimately I don't really trust their defense. I don't
Speaker 1: trust the Bucks defense a ton, but they do have
Speaker 1: Antoine Winfield back for the game. They are relatively healthy,
Speaker 1: they're a little bit better stopping the run. You got
Speaker 1: Vita Vea playing well. These are two unpredictable teams, though Patrick.
Speaker 1: I looked in variants according to FTN Fantasy and Aaron Shots,
Speaker 1: and this matches my eye test variants being like one
Speaker 1: week to the next not consistent. They are two of
Speaker 1: the seven least consistent teams of the year, and the
Speaker 1: Bucks really strike me as that because to me, the
Speaker 1: Bucks are a legit Super Bowl contender when they're at
Speaker 1: their best, but they're just you just not. But they
Speaker 1: also have those games where they're very lucky to beat
Speaker 1: bad teams or they just they have stinkers. And Washington's
Speaker 1: a little bit like that too. They're a little up
Speaker 1: and down. So I don't know, anything could happen, but
Speaker 1: I definitely favor the Bucks a little bit here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard not to see what this Chargers team
Speaker 2: has done late this season and then think back to
Speaker 2: the Bucks. Absolutely evaporating them in so Far Stadium a
Speaker 2: few weeks ago as a sign right of the type
Speaker 2: of variance that they offer. But I know that Jayden
Speaker 2: Nagiels was under pressure against the Dallas Cowboys. Michael Parsons
Speaker 2: doesn't play for the Buccaneers or really anybody else. I
Speaker 2: think that provided a unique that sultage where the Bucks
Speaker 2: got to rely on Ellijah Cansey. Videvea did get a
Speaker 2: sack in Week eighteen, but it's it's a little bit
Speaker 2: of a different offense than a different different monster when
Speaker 2: it's Spencer Rattler versus Jayden Daniels right now.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, to your point, they were very lucky they
Speaker 1: beat the Saints. They were losing by ten to Spencer
Speaker 1: Ratler in the Saints and if Ratler hadn't missed, there
Speaker 1: was like two third down throws in the second half
Speaker 1: that it wasn't so much good defense, it was just
Speaker 1: they didn't hit it. It's like we could be talking
Speaker 1: about the Falcons in this game, which is crazy. It's
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury's last chance potentially before he maybe has a
Speaker 1: head coaching job if he wants it. There's some take
Speaker 1: he might not even want him he's just loving life
Speaker 1: with I don't blame him, but I think it's a matchup.
Speaker 1: He could look good. I liked what I saw to
Speaker 1: him late in the season. I also liked what I
Speaker 1: saw of Marcus Mariota. I mentioned some insane stats that
Speaker 1: he has over this course of the season in our
Speaker 1: QB Island Show. And when you think Mariota, you also
Speaker 1: think Titans And a little bit awkward to transition here, Patrick,
Speaker 1: But before we go to break, I don't know if
Speaker 1: you saw the huge breaking news today about the Titans
Speaker 1: radio booth.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 1: Mike Keith has accepted a job with the University of
Speaker 1: Tennessee to be the next voice of the Tennessee Volunteers.
Speaker 1: And I presume he's done with with the Titans, that
Speaker 1: he he is moving on to Tennessee. Wait do I
Speaker 1: even know that for sure? Do I just could he
Speaker 1: do both? Could he possibly do both?
Speaker 2: I mean there's a there's a Saturday Sunday situation. I
Speaker 2: would I would hope, especially on the heels. You know,
Speaker 2: they just fired their GM uh. You know, folks are
Speaker 2: looking back to the John Robinson trade of AJ Brown.
Speaker 2: Mike Mike Keith is the Tennessee Titans. There's to me, right,
Speaker 2: there's very little because we have the Titans for some
Speaker 2: reason playing in those those oilers uniforms. I think it
Speaker 2: kind of flies in the face of the actual Titans tradition,
Speaker 2: which includes right Steve McNair, which includes Frank Wycheck and
Speaker 2: Kevin Dyson, and all the plays and all the memories,
Speaker 2: Derreck Henry, everything that's happened in Nashville comes with that
Speaker 2: signature touchdown Titans that I don't want to believe this,
Speaker 2: and I would hope that that all parties involved come
Speaker 2: to the right conclusion.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, we talked about how badly they mismanaged the
Speaker 1: general manager and coaching situation, and there's more to that
Speaker 1: we'll get to on a future show. But how do
Speaker 1: you lose Mike Keith? It is confirmed. Keith said in
Speaker 1: a statement that it's very hard to say goodbye to
Speaker 1: the Titans, but it's hard not to say a yes
Speaker 1: to a return to the University of Tennessee. He was
Speaker 1: once an announcer for them before they fumbled the bag.
Speaker 1: So bad job, but at least let's go to a
Speaker 1: break remembering a great moment in Tennessee. Titans and Mike
Speaker 1: Keith History. Let's go back to wild card weekend, stay
Speaker 1: on topic. After the two thousand and seventeen season. The
Speaker 1: Titans are trailing twenty one to three against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: There's no way they're going to come back on Andy
Speaker 1: Reid and this crew back in a minute.
Speaker 4: Mariota takes the snap, looks to his right, looking looking pomping,
Speaker 4: throwing into the end zone.
Speaker 3: No, he kept it, dove for the zone itself and
Speaker 3: got in. Oh my goodness, I thought.
Speaker 1: For sure Mariota had thrown it. Want to play it
Speaker 1: was batted back to him.
Speaker 3: He did throw it, he caught it for a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Touchdown. Titans want to play Marcus Mariota, who just.
Speaker 3: Threw and caught a touchdown pass.
Speaker 1: Back on NFL Daily talked to NFC wild Card. Let's
Speaker 1: go to the AFC where it feels like there's more mismatches.
Speaker 1: Let's just be real and let's start with the biggest
Speaker 1: point spread of the week, Raven Steelers. I can't believe it.
Speaker 1: A Raven Steelers game is down to nine and a half. Actually,
Speaker 1: so some people who are betting on national game might
Speaker 1: agree with you, Patrick, because earlier in the week it
Speaker 1: was ten and a half. But I see now it's
Speaker 1: nine and a half. This is the prime video game.
Speaker 1: We have never had a Prime video playoff game. It
Speaker 1: is on Saturday Night. Al Michaels, Kirk, Herbstreet, Kaylee Hartung,
Speaker 1: the potential MVP winner in Lamar Jackson. I think he's
Speaker 1: gonna win. I actually do. I think it's going to
Speaker 1: be extremely close, but I think he's going to win.
Speaker 1: He is playing against a Steelers team that they just
Speaker 1: faced on a Saturday, what was it three weeks ago
Speaker 1: now before before they had that double dip on Christmas
Speaker 1: in a game that I think was closer than the
Speaker 1: score indicated. Nose flowers. I know, more than anything, those
Speaker 1: Steelers uniforms and the number and how everyone is talking
Speaker 1: about this game has got Patrick Claybund nervous.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, it's it's not just the Steelers uniforms. It's
Speaker 2: the team, the team that historically has provided problems for
Speaker 2: Baltimore's offense, and a lot of those pieces still there,
Speaker 2: most notably uh T J. Watt and and a game
Speaker 2: where they you know, they've they started out great with
Speaker 2: the run game in the matchup against the Steelers on
Speaker 2: that Saturday before both teams would go on to play
Speaker 2: uh the very next week, but there's the injury concern
Speaker 2: for the Steelers was a big problem. Then they lose
Speaker 2: their the one of their top corners, and Joey Porter Jr.
Speaker 2: Takes a Henry knee to the to the shoulder and
Speaker 2: neck area leaves for the rest of the game, they're
Speaker 2: kind of playing a man down the secondary and really
Speaker 2: a whole lot of reeds and r p o s
Speaker 2: by Lamar and Derrick Henry were called perfectly and executed perfectly,
Speaker 2: and it's still wound up being relatively close till the
Speaker 2: till the Ravens were able to pull away late. And
Speaker 2: so now on the other side, Zay Flowers is a
Speaker 2: big part of the passing game because of the things
Speaker 2: that he does that nobody else on the team does right.
Speaker 2: It's it's just different and provides a different look for
Speaker 2: the defense and you're able to get the ball out
Speaker 2: to him quickly on screens where you know Nelson Aguilar
Speaker 2: and Rashad Bateman aren't duplicating that, and it puts puts
Speaker 2: more pressure on Mark Andrews, who had another great game
Speaker 2: against the Steelers. But that the cascading effect does take
Speaker 2: points away, where ten points to me would have been
Speaker 2: absurd if the teams were at full strength, it feels
Speaker 2: even more absurd now at this point. Yeah, it's they
Speaker 2: have to encourage action. Lines of the westper action, and
Speaker 2: they want they want action on the game.
Speaker 1: So I get that too, But it's also on the
Speaker 1: statistical profile, which for the Ravens offense is outrageous. It's historic,
Speaker 1: and because they have so many l's in their standing
Speaker 1: and look, twelve and five is a great record. They
Speaker 1: had a tough schedule, it's not anything to be embarrassed about.
Speaker 1: But because you know there's a decent amount of them,
Speaker 1: people don't think of them in historic terms. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I've been mentioning dvo A a lot, like they're their
Speaker 1: top three all time. You know, their combination of explosive
Speaker 1: passing plays being extremely regular and both explosive running gains
Speaker 1: and sustaining running games is just a lot to deal with.
Speaker 1: And they're not afraid to go down the field. Neither
Speaker 1: are the Steelers, but they're so efficient at doing it.
Speaker 1: You're right, losing Zay hurts because he opens up I
Speaker 1: think a lot for other people. He's the guy that
Speaker 1: other defenses worry about the most I do. I think
Speaker 1: Rashad Bateman looked fantastic in Week eighteen and overall had
Speaker 1: a really strong season. I mean, his final numbers really
Speaker 1: show what a big step forward. He's got a suddenness
Speaker 1: to him. He's a nice downfield threat. They still have
Speaker 1: the tight ends, they still have the running game, so
Speaker 1: they still have Lamar Jackson, not just how great he
Speaker 1: is throwing the ball this year, but really made a
Speaker 1: point to run. This is the one defense though, that
Speaker 1: has consistently stopped him running. That was even true three
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and that game, to me, was very reliant
Speaker 1: on those two turnovers the Ravens force. It's funny because
Speaker 1: I think it's the only time Russell Wilson actually played
Speaker 1: well over the last month was against the Ravens. He
Speaker 1: just had those two turnovers, which we're massive play, so
Speaker 1: I guess he didn't play that well. But other than
Speaker 1: those two plays, I thought he played one of his
Speaker 1: best games of the season. So if you're a Steelers fan,
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of encouragement to take from that
Speaker 1: because the Ravens defense has really played well and it's
Speaker 1: one of the few times a good a quarterback has
Speaker 1: looked good against them in the last six or seven weeks.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lamar's got these four interceptions this season, a couple
Speaker 2: of them coming against the Picksburgh Steelers. One incredible play
Speaker 2: by the rookie Peyton Wilson on Justice Hill down the sideline,
Speaker 2: and another was to play before that Russ pass that
Speaker 2: was picked off by Marlon Humphrey where Rashaan Bateman kind
Speaker 2: of stops running and Lamar throws one out and the
Speaker 2: flat the Steelers pick it off, and so they like
Speaker 2: there's the there's the give and the take, like there's
Speaker 2: you know, and again all the all the MO believers
Speaker 2: right that the Steeler should have scored after that interception.
Speaker 2: Turns out, you know, the Ravens get the turnover because
Speaker 2: cause and effect the things that you do actually or
Speaker 2: what matters. But that's how that's how close even that
Speaker 2: game it was, so again ten points down and a
Speaker 2: half points stall silly to me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Now that said, they've lost four in a row.
Speaker 1: I think the two worst teams in the playoffs are
Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Texans. That's my opinion. How they're
Speaker 1: playing right now. I think they're two average teams and
Speaker 1: for the most part. The playoffs are above average teams.
Speaker 1: Russ is and their offense is playing their worst overall
Speaker 1: at the worst time. I think there's fair questions about
Speaker 1: how Mike Tomlin prepares this team. He goes so hard
Speaker 1: in training camp, he goes so hard in terms of
Speaker 1: their practice schedule, and you look at how they faded
Speaker 1: down the stretch a number of times. I'm always cautious
Speaker 1: to make cause and effect on these sort of things,
Speaker 1: but they just don't. They haven't finished well, and especially
Speaker 1: their pass rush seems tired. TJ. Watt seems tired. That's
Speaker 1: the number one thing I think to watch in this game.
Speaker 1: Their pass rush just needs to be better. It wasn't
Speaker 1: any better than the Ravens pass rush was when they
Speaker 1: played in that game. It wasn't any better than the
Speaker 1: Bengals was last week. That's where their dudes are at.
Speaker 1: And the guards for the Ravens, especially or maybe even
Speaker 1: Rosen Garden, I think they're vulnerable if they get into
Speaker 1: some passing situations. They got to show up, like they
Speaker 1: blitzed a ton against the Ravens last time and it
Speaker 1: didn't work at all. Like that's it to me. If
Speaker 1: we see a real Watt, herbig Hayward high Smith game.
Speaker 1: They got a chance. But if they keep playing the
Speaker 1: way they've played over the last month, it's not just
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson in terms of big names that have fallen off.
Speaker 1: They haven't fallen off as much, but they haven't been special.
Speaker 1: And that's to me kind of the number one thing
Speaker 1: I'm watching in this game. If they show up, then
Speaker 1: you might be sweating this thing out.
Speaker 2: Now, Well, Greg, I'm gonna be sweating out regardless, but
Speaker 2: I do because you mentioned TJ. Watt. I'm just awaiting
Speaker 2: whenever the season ends. I feel like we're going to
Speaker 2: find out and get some context for whatever Watt was
Speaker 2: dealing with down the stretch this season, because the number
Speaker 2: drop off kind of matches what the eye test shows
Speaker 2: is it's something's not right fair fair.
Speaker 1: Before we move to the next game, do you think
Speaker 1: Justin Fields has a chance to play here? Like, how
Speaker 1: long do you think Russell Wilson's leash is?
Speaker 2: Well, in terms of a leash, I mean.
Speaker 1: Being flat out replaced for like at least an entire
Speaker 1: series or two and see how it goes.
Speaker 2: No, it's gonna have to be I think he would
Speaker 2: play himself all the way out of the game, like
Speaker 2: it would have to be t J. Yates against the
Speaker 2: Bengals like this is or I get or maybe it
Speaker 2: was Andy Dalton had had the bad game in that one.
Speaker 2: But it's just gonna have to be a categorical like
Speaker 2: two picks in a fumble, like on a weird pitch.
Speaker 2: I think Tomlin's sticking sticking with Russ for the remainder
Speaker 2: of the season.
Speaker 1: I disagree. I don't feel strongly about it. I just
Speaker 1: think there's a better chance than people think that Russ
Speaker 1: could get pulled sooner than later, and it might not
Speaker 1: even need to be catastrophic because this is it. This
Speaker 1: is the last game he's seen a lot. Yeah, he
Speaker 1: started better than Russ and everyone was apologizing for questioning
Speaker 1: the over the last five weeks. He's now playing at
Speaker 1: a lower level than their offense was with fields and
Speaker 1: it'd be quite a change up. It'd be quite a
Speaker 1: ballsy move. I'd like to see it. So maybe I'm
Speaker 1: just wish casting it'd be interesting, but I don't give
Speaker 1: the Steelers a ton of a chance. Ultimately, this is
Speaker 1: what the Ravens do. They improve late in the season
Speaker 1: while the Steelers are falling apart. They figure out their
Speaker 1: defensive problems. They either add guys on defense or they
Speaker 1: actually just get rid of them, like they did with
Speaker 1: Eddie Jackson. They figure out their problems and apparently just
Speaker 1: kick them off the team or he got himself kicked
Speaker 1: off the team. They're playing their best right now and
Speaker 1: the Steelers are facing their worst. So even if you
Speaker 1: end up sweating it out a little bit, I actually
Speaker 1: think the Ravens cover the number here and yeah, let's
Speaker 1: go Ravens. Okay, let's go to the Bills game. So
Speaker 1: I mentioned I thought the two worst teams in the
Speaker 1: playoffs were probably the Texans and the Steelers. I think
Speaker 1: the Bill's got a tough draw relatively in that the
Speaker 1: first thing I look for in these games are like,
Speaker 1: who's winning the battle of the line of scrimmage and
Speaker 1: coaching and obviously quarterbacks quarterbacks. It's as obviously it's big
Speaker 1: a mismatch as you could have now coaching, I would
Speaker 1: never doubt Sean Payton in a one game situation, not
Speaker 1: saying he has some huge advantage over at mcdurrant, but
Speaker 1: he's awesome and the line play that's where I'm really
Speaker 1: getting to that, it's a difficult matchup. You got to
Speaker 1: favor the Broncos. The biggest mismatch in this game other
Speaker 1: than the quarterbacks is the pass protection that the Broncos
Speaker 1: should have for Bonicks against a pretty mediocre pass rush
Speaker 1: to bad for the Broncos. And then on the other side,
Speaker 1: it's strength on strength. It's one of, if not the
Speaker 1: best pass rushers in the entire NFL against one of
Speaker 1: the best offensive line. You'd have to give the Broncos
Speaker 1: like a slight edge there. That's closer it's strength on strength,
Speaker 1: but even a slight edge there. So if you tell
Speaker 1: me you got a great coach and you got two
Speaker 1: great lines, you got a chance. And I kind of
Speaker 1: like the Broncos to to make them sweat it out.
Speaker 2: I do as well, Greg, because another part of that
Speaker 2: is thinking about how Zach Allen is double teamed on
Speaker 2: almost thirty five percent of his pass rushes. I believe
Speaker 2: it's above it's north of thirty five percent. And when
Speaker 2: we've seen what the Broncos can do on offenses, but
Speaker 2: particularly in the screen game late where I think you
Speaker 2: can kind of challenge this Bills team in the secondary
Speaker 2: as well as with Courtland Sutton kind of that best
Speaker 2: kind of that one option where the reason I was
Speaker 2: able to successfully pick that Rams game over the Buffalo
Speaker 2: Bills was the mismatch that Puka Nakua provides. Now, I'm
Speaker 2: not saying that Courtland Sutton is in that Puka kind
Speaker 2: of range as a problem giver to the Buffalo Bills,
Speaker 2: but I think in terms of the matchup, he's got
Speaker 2: an advantageous look where if the Bills are going to
Speaker 2: win this game, they're it's gonna have to be Josh
Speaker 2: in the offense going up and down the field because
Speaker 2: it's going to be very difficult. I think where if
Speaker 2: you try to corral Bo Nicks. We saw him make
Speaker 2: several plays to Marvin Mims Junior. Over the course, Tony
Speaker 2: Franklin has gotten worked into to the deep game as well,
Speaker 2: and they have those options where you know, the Sean
Speaker 2: Payton screen one of the more effective plays. Now, I
Speaker 2: can't do them them. I did almost cost them a
Speaker 2: game against the Bengals. They were able to get in
Speaker 2: overtime in that game. But they can hit them at
Speaker 2: any time and they're very successful at running.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's very good at picking out mismatches and the
Speaker 1: Bills are a good defense, but they're spots where you
Speaker 1: can find a linebacker in coverage. Whether it's Matt Mulano
Speaker 1: who has come back from the injury but has generally
Speaker 1: been sitting out on third down, so I think they're
Speaker 1: telling us something about his usage. Maybe they'll change, Maybe
Speaker 1: they'll change that for the playoffs. But whether it's Tim
Speaker 1: or Dorrian Williams in pass coverage or you know, some
Speaker 1: of the safeties, if you try to get McLoughlin matched
Speaker 1: up on Deamar Hamlin or however, it's gonna be in
Speaker 1: terms of just Peyton's so good at that that he
Speaker 1: has problems to every team. And bo Nicks is decisive
Speaker 1: and he executes it, and he is a high variance player,
Speaker 1: really good plays. He'll have some misses and negative plays,
Speaker 1: but they're gonna have a chance to possess the ball,
Speaker 1: I think in this game and shorten the game. The
Speaker 1: you know, number one X factor is though, who are
Speaker 1: we talking about here? We're Josh. We're talking about Josh Allen,
Speaker 1: the potential MVP at his absolute apex, and a great
Speaker 1: running game to support him, of which he's a part of.
Speaker 1: That's great, Like the Broncos could play their A game
Speaker 1: and he could just play like great offense beats great defense,
Speaker 1: and he could just beat everything you want to do.
Speaker 1: It's hard to blitz him. He's great against the blitz,
Speaker 1: like they're great running the ball, and that's probably the
Speaker 1: way you want to beat vance Joseph, just to get
Speaker 1: out of those long yarded situations. So they have every
Speaker 1: answer and he could just just like Lamar, I should
Speaker 1: have said with him, if they play their A plus game,
Speaker 1: they're so good they're gonna win, at least unless they're
Speaker 1: playing each other, like they very well could be next week,
Speaker 1: So that that's part of it. Is like their ceiling
Speaker 1: is obviously higher. That's why the number is so big.
Speaker 1: But I think if you just take out kind of
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, then these two teams look a lot more even.
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is an exceedingly difficult thing to be right,
Speaker 2: but between like Nick Benito has had a great year,
Speaker 2: a great year shown that explosiveness that you have to
Speaker 2: have on the edge right to deal with with Lamar
Speaker 2: and Josh Allen to where you know it's not necessarily
Speaker 2: corralling them, but just having the ability to bother them
Speaker 2: when they're back there doing that thing where either one
Speaker 2: of them and Josh Allen this instance kind of floats
Speaker 2: towards the right sideline where the play is never over.
Speaker 2: He's completed multiple passes this season where he's actually been
Speaker 2: in the air out of bounds right and so's it's
Speaker 2: that borderline where you're having to deal with this quarterback
Speaker 2: out on the edge, having to not hit him late,
Speaker 2: but also trying to keep him from fireing the ball
Speaker 2: fifty yards downfield, where I think the Broncos secondary, in
Speaker 2: terms of the matchups, does have the advantage against the
Speaker 2: Bills receivers, not necessarily like Kincaid and Knocks, but the
Speaker 2: Bill's receivers. We don't still waiting on Amari Cooper's personal issue.
Speaker 2: He was able to go home from the team, and
Speaker 2: Sean McDermott says, you know, it's full leeway. We just
Speaker 2: hope Amari's back and hope he's okay. But the matchup,
Speaker 2: whether he plays or not, I think favors the Broncos
Speaker 2: secondary purely discussing the pass catchers.
Speaker 1: Cooper is an interesting point. I should have mentioned that
Speaker 1: he has really played as their fourth receiver snap wise,
Speaker 1: but he kind of like I was talking about with
Speaker 1: Christian Watson. He provides something just the rest of the
Speaker 1: team doesn't in terms of his savvy and yeah, Ken
Speaker 1: Coleman could make a big play, but I'm trusting Amari
Speaker 1: on the boundary and his versatility. So that is something
Speaker 1: to watch. Riley Moss came back from his injury and
Speaker 1: hasn't played as well, so you know he's someone to
Speaker 1: keep an eye on. And yet it's kind of like
Speaker 1: that Steelers game in terms of the underdog. It's about
Speaker 1: that pass rush for me there, it's not just Benito,
Speaker 1: who's a defensive Player of the Year candidate, should should
Speaker 1: be on ballots. I think he really has been that
Speaker 1: good certain who will be on ballots might win the award.
Speaker 1: And it's Cooper, it's Franklin Myers. Like they have a
Speaker 1: lot of guys and if they can just harass Josh
Speaker 1: repeatedly over and over and win that battle against a
Speaker 1: good Bills offensive line, they got a chance. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to the Chargers game. It's actually in the
Speaker 1: west of his window, but it's a fun one. I
Speaker 1: I love the quarterback matchup seen Stroud in his second
Speaker 1: time in the playoffs, seeing Herbert kind of in full flow.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about this at length, like I mentioned
Speaker 1: in this Seth Pain interview that we're gonna throw to
Speaker 1: after the break and wrap the show up. But you know,
Speaker 1: I always want to hear what Patrick has to say,
Speaker 1: like how good of a chance do you see? It's
Speaker 1: it's a road favorite here, Chargers by three, and we
Speaker 1: get Charles Davis and Iron Eagle. What a great playoff
Speaker 1: you know, lineup of announcers. I love me some Charles
Speaker 1: in Iron in the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a great crew. You know your game will
Speaker 2: be able to see on CBS or or or stream
Speaker 2: on on Paramount plus. Where you've got you've got two
Speaker 2: teams that that have beaten one playoff team. Now, the
Speaker 2: advantage for the Chargers they were able to beat the
Speaker 2: Broncos twice, so they get two wins against playoff teams,
Speaker 2: and and the Texans have that win over the Bills
Speaker 2: and so and that was in terms of how the
Speaker 2: season goes, it feels like it was a very very
Speaker 2: long time ago. But they they've still got that talent
Speaker 2: where they're able to complete I think Nico Collins uh
Speaker 2: is in that discussion of range, you know, top top
Speaker 2: five receivers. Uh in the NFL, where when c J.
Speaker 2: Stroud is targeting Nico Collins, it's like all those all
Speaker 2: those problems of the season, uh just aren't really there.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Third and in yards per run over the last
Speaker 1: couple of seasons, who's that. It's Pooka Dustin Devers in
Speaker 1: a Nico So like that's the company he's keeping.
Speaker 2: And so like when he's looking at twelve, all things
Speaker 2: are great. It's when he's not targeting Nico Collins the
Speaker 2: issues kind of rise up. And we got two really
Speaker 2: good rookie defenders in tarp tar heeb Still and Bullock
Speaker 2: Over On the other side for the Texans where it's
Speaker 2: a great matchup, I give Houston I think a better
Speaker 2: chance than most in this game, especially with the being
Speaker 2: at NRG.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the big home field advantage. We talk about that
Speaker 1: with Seth. My main thing is that the running game
Speaker 1: behind Herbert's gotten better, and that more than anything, we
Speaker 1: are back to agro Herbert. The yards, the air yards
Speaker 1: have gone way up, like the yards perttempt have gone
Speaker 1: way up, and just the eye test the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, he hit an opposite hash throw last week
Speaker 1: against the Raiders where he was standing on his own
Speaker 1: three yard line and he completed it to like the
Speaker 1: other sideline at the fifty and it was like nothing.
Speaker 1: And he is just going for those types of throws
Speaker 1: in a way that I didn't see the confidence from
Speaker 1: him or maybe it was in his receivers or the
Speaker 1: system early. So he is playing his best, whereas CJ
Speaker 1: is to me up and down and they can control
Speaker 1: the ball. Interestingly, the Chargers are really good playing ball,
Speaker 1: control offense by passing the ball, and ultimately I think
Speaker 1: their offense is just too good. But yes, I'm going
Speaker 1: to talk about that with Seth at length. Everyone stay
Speaker 1: for that. It's a great conversation. We're actually gonna wrap
Speaker 1: the show with Seth while we're talking Chargers. Breaking news
Speaker 1: literally as this as we're speaking, the Raiders have fired
Speaker 1: Tom te LESCo, who lasted one year there in Las
Speaker 1: Vegas after being with the Chargers. Earlier this week we
Speaker 1: spoke at length. It was a good conversation about the
Speaker 1: Antonio Pierce firing, and we said, yeah, Telesco's there for now.
Speaker 1: We'll we'll see what this means in terms of who
Speaker 1: is coming into the building, the feedback they're getting Maybe
Speaker 1: there's zeroing in on someone that didn't want to LESCo.
Speaker 1: Maybe they just decided once Mark Davis talked to like
Speaker 1: the other owners like Tom Brady, that there was no
Speaker 1: scenario where it made sense to clep keep t LESCo.
Speaker 1: So he is out, as well as Antonio Pierce. Ultimately,
Speaker 1: I think that's the best way to run franchises is
Speaker 1: higher your gms and your coaches at the same time.
Speaker 1: But like Antonio Peers, it's like, what chance did Tom
Speaker 1: Telesco really get this year? Not that you know, he
Speaker 1: was amazing and with the Chargers he was fine, but
Speaker 1: it's like he took over an impossible situation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it rings to me if you're gonna, if you're
Speaker 2: gonna make this decision for both of them after a season,
Speaker 2: then why'd you put them in this position in the
Speaker 2: first place, especially Tom Telesco coming from across the division.
Speaker 2: But hey, somebody, somebody gets a shot. I guess it
Speaker 2: hiring a coach or being brought in with a coach
Speaker 2: and the number six overall pick, So hey, good good luck.
Speaker 1: I am really intrigued by the Raiders coaching search. They
Speaker 1: have the most interesting list of candidates, but our focus
Speaker 1: is on the playoffs. Yes, we're gonna throw to break
Speaker 1: and we'll listen to Seth pain. Appreciate you, Patrick, stay safe,
Speaker 1: and yes we will be back on Friday with our
Speaker 1: usual pick show with Cynthia from home. It'll be me
Speaker 1: and Seth on the other side, back on NFL Daily
Speaker 1: with one of my favorite guests. And just speaking out
Speaker 1: of self interest, it occurred to me this week this
Speaker 1: could be the last time the Houston Texans to play
Speaker 1: a game, and that means it's probably the last time
Speaker 1: I got a chance to get on. Like I said
Speaker 1: one of my favorite guests, Seth payin you your mouth
Speaker 1: is a gape.
Speaker 3: Set I'll talk.
Speaker 4: You had me because this might be the last opportunity
Speaker 4: because you think so lowly of the Texans. I just
Speaker 4: I can't deny that that kind of makes sense. Unfortunately, Yeah, thanks, thanks, though,
Speaker 4: I appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Well, you just you just never know either we're going
Speaker 1: to be talking at the very beginning of what's going
Speaker 1: to be a surprising and magical run deep into the playoffs,
Speaker 1: or it'll be a chance to kind of close the
Speaker 1: book look look ahead to this game. But also this
Speaker 1: is a team that fascinates me it's a franchise that
Speaker 1: fascinates me. And we talked all the way back in August,
Speaker 1: I believe, and then we talked when they were on
Speaker 1: on Thursday Night Football around Halloween and just sets, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that was tough. And coming into this season we think
Speaker 1: maybe maybe are they going to be the team that
Speaker 1: challenges the Chiefs. We feel differently, they're into just a
Speaker 1: strange place kind of where do you just big picture
Speaker 1: before we get into the game, where like, where do
Speaker 1: you think they are in year two? Here of Demico
Speaker 1: Ryans's tenure back to back AFC South Championships, back to
Speaker 1: back playoff spot after a three year period where they
Speaker 1: won ten games combined, I do like to present that context.
Speaker 1: It's easy to forget Bill O'Brien was the coach just
Speaker 1: a few years ago. It was year after it was
Speaker 1: Bill O'Brien, and then David Kelly love Smith and now
Speaker 1: Damiko Ryan. So he's done a great job. But yet
Speaker 1: this feels like a disappointing season heading into the playoffs.
Speaker 4: It is because of the way the second half of
Speaker 4: the season has gone, for sure, but then the entire season,
Speaker 4: the offense has been a disappointment, especially I mean when
Speaker 4: we talked to you in August, it was, you know, hey,
Speaker 4: you got step On Diggs, Nico Collins, Tank, Dell Man.
Speaker 3: It's gonna be an aerial assault.
Speaker 4: And even though those three guys were never on the
Speaker 4: field together that much, when they were, it wasn't overly
Speaker 4: impressive from the passing side of things.
Speaker 3: And then even when they would.
Speaker 4: Have it various times, Okay, you've got Nico and Tank
Speaker 4: out there. You've got On and Tank, they could just
Speaker 4: never get the pass game going.
Speaker 3: And you know, CJ.
Speaker 4: Stroud obviously has not had the same performance this year
Speaker 4: that he did last year. He didn't build on the
Speaker 4: promise of his rookie year. So that's been the really
Speaker 4: frustrating thing. And you know, the defense, the defense played
Speaker 4: very well. There's been a few things that have kept
Speaker 4: them from being a genuinely elite defense. But you've got
Speaker 4: a defensive minded head coach. The defense is doing great.
Speaker 4: You know, Frankly, in a lot of ways, it feels
Speaker 4: like Lovey Smith back with the Bears when the defense
Speaker 4: was awesome, and man, they managed to make it to
Speaker 4: a Super Bowl feasting on turnovers and whatnot, but they
Speaker 4: didn't have a guy that had the promise of c. J.
Speaker 3: Stroud. That's been the really frustrating part of it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the numbers say tell the story. In terms of DVOA,
Speaker 1: they're sixteenth, which feels about right in terms of do
Speaker 1: they just feel like about an average team overall? But
Speaker 1: the third in defense not a dominating defense. It's not
Speaker 1: a year with great defense, but third and defense twenty
Speaker 1: sixth in offense very surprising. I actually want to start.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the positive, because there is a route
Speaker 1: to winning this game, and it's on the defensive side
Speaker 1: of the ball. You have the edge rushers, which are
Speaker 1: as good as any team in the league. You're going
Speaker 1: up against a Chargers team who have good tackles, but
Speaker 1: Rashwan Slater's coming off of an injury. They might be
Speaker 1: rotating their guards because they haven't quite chosen one. That's
Speaker 1: not a great sign and not a team that has
Speaker 1: a ton of playmakers. I guess tell me how you
Speaker 1: feel this defense looks right now in how they match up.
Speaker 4: The biggest issue with the defense right now is that
Speaker 4: their slot corner started off being Jalen Petrie and Jimmy
Speaker 4: Ward was playing safety. Jalen Petrie got injured, so now
Speaker 4: Jimmy Ward goes down to play the slot corner, which
Speaker 4: in this defense they use really effectively, at least with
Speaker 4: the previous two guys, but now they're kind of stuck
Speaker 4: with a belieguered secondary and Miles Bryant will play the
Speaker 4: slot corner at times, Kamari Lassiter will but it's the
Speaker 4: strength of that defense. It's a frustrating thing. The money positions,
Speaker 4: the defensive ends and the cornerbacks. They are in great shape.
Speaker 4: They got Daniel Hunter or Daniel Danielle Hunter.
Speaker 3: And Will Anderson up front.
Speaker 4: You've got Kamari Lasser and Derek Stingley at cornerback. But
Speaker 4: because of the disheveled secondary, Kamaria Laster has to move
Speaker 4: around a little bit.
Speaker 3: You don't feel like it maybe.
Speaker 4: Necessarily can shadow with Derek Stingley as as well as
Speaker 4: you could in the past, but they look The biggest
Speaker 4: thing the defense can do, aside from playing really good coverage,
Speaker 4: is they take the ball away. And they're still top
Speaker 4: five in the league in takeaways. But that's you know,
Speaker 4: as you know, it's really hard to make a playoff
Speaker 4: run feasting on turnovers, and you go back to if
Speaker 4: you're not an all time defense, but you can take the.
Speaker 3: Ball away a lot.
Speaker 4: The Bears twice with Dick Charon and Lovey Smith like
Speaker 4: a long time ago, had really nice runs in the
Speaker 4: playoffs in that it's just you, you can't bank on it.
Speaker 4: And then they they allow too many explosive plays.
Speaker 3: They've they've allowed.
Speaker 4: In the top three in passing touchdowns all year. So
Speaker 4: they've just got little glitches that keep them from being
Speaker 4: really really good. And when I watch when I watched
Speaker 4: Justin Herbert, I feel like, man, I've spent the last
Speaker 4: two days almost like becoming like a Chargers fan. That
Speaker 4: feels like Justin Herbert's not getting enough respect because because
Speaker 4: I want you look at his numbers and you're like, okay, yeah,
Speaker 4: they're not actually all that much different from some of
Speaker 4: his previous years in his career. But I think he's
Speaker 4: doing exactly what Jim Harbaugh's asking him to do, which
Speaker 4: is Jim Harbaugh style, run, run the hell out of
Speaker 4: the ball, take your opportunities where they're there. But he's
Speaker 4: not turning the ball over at all. He's turning the
Speaker 4: ball over three times. It's the second fewest turnovers of
Speaker 4: somebody that's passed more than five hundred past attempts in
Speaker 4: a season.
Speaker 3: Wow. And I think that he's I think he's.
Speaker 4: Playing like he isn't a game manager, but he's managing
Speaker 4: the games really well and he's still making some pretty
Speaker 4: spectacular throws. So I'm I'm nervous about the fact that
Speaker 4: the Texans have had these lapses where they allow these
Speaker 4: explosive plays, and Justin Herbert is just the guy to
Speaker 4: do that right.
Speaker 1: And he's always been a game manager. That's what's bothered
Speaker 1: me about him. If anything, I love I love Herbert
Speaker 1: since since the day he came in the league. I
Speaker 1: thought this is going to be the next great quarterback.
Speaker 1: And I think he is a great quarterback. He's been
Speaker 1: a top ten quarterback in my mind since he entered
Speaker 1: the league. That's hard to find. But he hasn't quite
Speaker 1: reached the top level. But if any if he has
Speaker 1: any fault, he's too safe. And I think over the
Speaker 1: last month especially, he's playing his best football, like ripping
Speaker 1: the ball very aggressive. I don't think he's playing safe lately.
Speaker 1: They're starting to hit those explosive plays. Their offense is
Speaker 1: peaking now. I do wonder like especially Quinton Johnson coming
Speaker 1: off of a great game, like who covers Lad McConkey
Speaker 1: on this team, if they struggle over the middle of
Speaker 1: the field, you know, covering and some of the numbers
Speaker 1: agree with what you're what you're saying there. The Chargers
Speaker 1: are fourth and EPA passing over the ale of the
Speaker 1: field and that that's where McConkie does his work.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it exactly and he works.
Speaker 4: You know, he worked in the beginning of the season
Speaker 4: mostly in the slot, and they've started to move him
Speaker 4: outside more. But that's where the Texans kind of getting
Speaker 4: to bind is that Derek Stingley doesn't play in the slot.
Speaker 4: If you move Kamari Lassiter down into the slot, then
Speaker 4: you've got either guys you don't feel about awesome about
Speaker 4: on the outside. And you know Quintin Johnson, Yeah, he
Speaker 4: had that, Quinn john My best hope for Quinton Johnson
Speaker 4: at times in this game might be that Quintin Johnson
Speaker 4: does a good job defending himself by dropping the football.
Speaker 3: So, I mean, which is a thing like and that's
Speaker 3: another part when I go back to Herbert, you know.
Speaker 4: He's been doing this with a developing Lad McConkie. He's
Speaker 4: very polished as a rookie, but he's a rookie still
Speaker 4: and without the full compliment of receivers he had when
Speaker 4: he put up some of those more prolific numbers earlier
Speaker 4: in his career. But again, when I look at the
Speaker 4: Texans defense, the one big thing is that at Home
Speaker 4: Anne Energy Stadium, they've they made Josh Allen throw thirty
Speaker 4: complete thirty percent of his passes, Jared Goff there you go,
Speaker 4: thrive five interceptions for Jared Goff, Tua through three interceptions,
Speaker 4: and Tua's two through three interceptions in a day where
Speaker 4: he barely threw past the line of scrimmage. So there's that.
Speaker 4: Don't ask me about Lamar Jackson.
Speaker 1: I want that was late in the year. I want
Speaker 1: some Texans optimism. Give me a little bit of like
Speaker 1: the vibe of Demiko, because there is something to the
Speaker 1: fact that they made the playoffs a year ago. They're
Speaker 1: in year two of their their run. Harbaugh's in year one.
Speaker 1: They have an experience winning, they have a home field advantage,
Speaker 1: and no one's going to be picking them for this game.
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, if that's really going to
Speaker 1: like fire everyone up. But Rex Ryan was on TV
Speaker 1: saying this was basically a bye for the.
Speaker 3: Basically he said it. He said, yeah, so he said
Speaker 3: they got a bye. That was perfect though.
Speaker 4: I think that's a that's you know, Dimiko all year long,
Speaker 4: like every coach in the NFL has talked about, you know,
Speaker 4: you got to avoid the outside noise. Don't listen to
Speaker 4: the outside noise. The great thing about Rex Ryan is
Speaker 4: that that's.
Speaker 3: That was such a perfect chip to put on.
Speaker 4: A shoulder that I think you can play the disrespect
Speaker 4: card there and get people fired up. I think the
Speaker 4: defensive guys, I love the defense. They play like psychos,
Speaker 4: like the right kind of psychos. They all they all
Speaker 4: look like they want to do harm to the opponent.
Speaker 4: Offense not so much.
Speaker 1: They're much nice get to the offense. Give me a
Speaker 1: little bit on how you think Stingley has played this year.
Speaker 4: Oh, he's been great, man, you know, because his biggest
Speaker 4: his biggest thing really in his first couple of years
Speaker 4: was just staying healthy. And last year I think he
Speaker 4: played at a Pro Bowl caliber. He just only played
Speaker 4: however many games, I think nine games by the time
Speaker 4: they voted on the Pro Bowl. So like this has
Speaker 4: been his first completely healthy season. And the fun thing
Speaker 4: about him, is that he's just in complete command and
Speaker 4: control all the time. I've always been I've always been
Speaker 4: most jealous of d defensive backs in terms of athleticism.
Speaker 3: Because they're just the guys that are really good.
Speaker 4: Like Stingley, they're you know, they can move in all
Speaker 4: all directions, they can turn their hips, they can do
Speaker 4: all those things like they're like gymnasts on a football field.
Speaker 4: And that's what Stingley is like. And he's gotten to
Speaker 4: that point now where he can bait people a little bit.
Speaker 4: There's a lot of times he tracks the ball really well.
Speaker 4: So there's times where it feels like Stingley, even when
Speaker 4: his back is still turned to the quarterback, has a
Speaker 4: better feel for when the ball is going to arrive
Speaker 4: than the receiver himself. So that's his ability to create turnovers.
Speaker 4: Kamari Lassiter and Kylen Bullock the rookie, they've both had
Speaker 4: a bunch of interceptions, so their ability to either intercept
Speaker 4: the ball or force fumbles and strip sacks and everything
Speaker 4: that's real. Like, there's a lot about this Texans team
Speaker 4: that disappointed offensively certainly, but even defensively, they haven't quite
Speaker 4: reached where I think they're.
Speaker 3: Capable of being, but they take the ball away a lot.
Speaker 1: Right And you mentioned having two rookie players in the secondary,
Speaker 1: and it's very similar to the Chargers with Tarheeb still
Speaker 1: and who is a cam Hart. But I think Lassiter
Speaker 1: and Bullock have been even better. Bullock made an incredible
Speaker 1: interception last week that was overturned. And there is something too,
Speaker 1: I don't know. He's a defensive coach and his defense
Speaker 1: is doing the job. And if you just look at
Speaker 1: the players, like who are great players? I think the Texans,
Speaker 1: you know, have more of them overall. They certainly do
Speaker 1: on the defensive side. Both Saint Mac are not who
Speaker 1: they used to be on as the edge players, and
Speaker 1: for the Chargers it seems a little more like scheme
Speaker 1: and effort, which goes a long way, but that maybe
Speaker 1: their defense is a little more vulnerable, whereas if one
Speaker 1: side of the ball for either team is going to
Speaker 1: just step up and like star players are going to
Speaker 1: show out, it could be Hunter and Anderson in Stingley
Speaker 1: and as he he's al Shaier. I feel like it
Speaker 1: is mostly known nationally for the suspension, but he was
Speaker 1: really good this year. He really matters for them, and
Speaker 1: he's back in.
Speaker 4: No, No, I'm glad you brought him up because it's
Speaker 4: especially when you go back to that Ravens game. I mean,
Speaker 4: the linebackers and the defensive ends, you know, the defensive
Speaker 4: ends just they weren't playing the zone read and all
Speaker 4: of that element that goes with Derrick Henry and Lamar
Speaker 4: Jackson very well at all. But the linebackers, especially without his,
Speaker 4: he's al Shire back there kind of directing traffic, alerting guys.
Speaker 4: There have been times this year the Jacksonville game actually
Speaker 4: there was there was a goal line stand that it
Speaker 4: was really critical and the Texans ended up winning the game.
Speaker 4: But his he's basically told the defensive line exactly what
Speaker 4: play was coming, you know, like that kind of veteran
Speaker 4: leadership and then being able to keep guys on their
Speaker 4: keys and know the tendencies and get everything all together.
Speaker 4: That's a big difference. And I agree with one hundred
Speaker 4: percent in terms of the names and the impact play
Speaker 4: ability of the guys on the d defense is really
Speaker 4: really good. It's just they're going up against the quarterback
Speaker 4: who's only thrown three interceptions on the year, and and
Speaker 4: he's never you know, he hasn't he's only had he
Speaker 4: hasn't had a multi interception game. It's it's gonna be
Speaker 4: on them, and they're capable of doing it.
Speaker 3: It's just a it's a really big if because the
Speaker 3: other side.
Speaker 4: Of it is that the Texans offense, I don't even
Speaker 4: know where they rank in the rushing stats right now.
Speaker 1: Because dead last success right.
Speaker 4: Yeah right, their second running back getting hit in the backfield.
Speaker 4: And I can't tell you how many times there were
Speaker 4: this year, greg where Joe Mixon would have like one
Speaker 4: hundred and forty yards rushing and immediately after the game,
Speaker 4: you're like, they couldn't run the ball for crap, because
Speaker 4: it was it was it was like one or two
Speaker 4: huge Joe Mixon runs where he broke a tackle in
Speaker 4: the backfield, bounced it outside.
Speaker 3: But the success rate.
Speaker 4: The ability to run on first and second down consistently,
Speaker 4: it just gets them in third and long all the time.
Speaker 4: And then the pass protection is they've improved some of
Speaker 4: the egregious stuff from earlier in the year, but see's
Speaker 4: just he's getting harassed all the time, and it's a
Speaker 4: really hard watch.
Speaker 3: That part of is a really hard watch.
Speaker 1: It is. Yeah, So I mentioned twenty sixth overall in offense,
Speaker 1: but in terms of allowing pressure, in terms of the
Speaker 1: running game, the offensive line still is banged up. You
Speaker 1: have Shaq Mason not practicing. I assume he's out for
Speaker 1: this game, which so they're trying to figure things out.
Speaker 1: Where do you think Stroud is at. I wanted to
Speaker 1: be optimistic and watched last week's game and see a
Speaker 1: really good first drive where they scored a touchdown and
Speaker 1: to your point about running the ball, they tried to
Speaker 1: run it in on the goal line and they couldn't.
Speaker 1: I was like, this is perfect. They ran right down
Speaker 1: the field and they get stuffed on the goal line.
Speaker 1: They were bad and short yards, but they did throw
Speaker 1: for the touchdown, you know, to Nico, I think from
Speaker 1: the one or two yard line and you got out
Speaker 1: of there with a perfect touchdown. And he just seems
Speaker 1: like such an to me from the outside, an emotional
Speaker 1: player that like when it's going well, it's going well,
Speaker 1: and he's in rhythm and it's incredible, and when it's not,
Speaker 1: maybe it's like just the negativity, it's just getting worse
Speaker 1: and worse, like he gets stuck in it. I don't
Speaker 1: know if.
Speaker 4: That Yeah, well, you know the one, the one big
Speaker 4: moment was when Tank Dell got injured in the Chiefs game,
Speaker 4: and it was as Tank Dell, I mean, Tank Dell's
Speaker 4: knee got blown apart and he held onto the ball
Speaker 4: on a deep shot into the end zone, and it
Speaker 4: was it was a great play. And that was in
Speaker 4: a game where they were kind of clicking with Tank Dell.
Speaker 1: They were playing well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tank had six receptions in the first half and
Speaker 4: plus that one, and he was playing as well and
Speaker 4: was getting as many touches as he's had all season long.
Speaker 4: And then it just went could put And immediately after
Speaker 4: that play, I mean CJ came in and they they
Speaker 4: drove down into the red zone. But then CJ made
Speaker 4: a couple of really bad errors. The next week, he
Speaker 4: didn't really show up. That's the only time all year
Speaker 4: where we were wondering I think if CJ just almost
Speaker 4: like had been broken mentally or something or emotionally. I
Speaker 4: think to week and within a game, I don't worry
Speaker 4: about I think he's pretty stable. He's pretty calm, cool
Speaker 4: and collected. The thing about it, though, is that you
Speaker 4: could almost see it as the season progressed, as he
Speaker 4: started to.
Speaker 3: Get hit more and more and more the process got
Speaker 3: sped up.
Speaker 4: I think you started to see more inaccurate throws, like
Speaker 4: errant throws even when there wasn't pressure, or there's times
Speaker 4: where you could just see him trying to figure out,
Speaker 4: all right, when do I need to get rid of
Speaker 4: the ball quickly? When do I need to check down?
Speaker 4: When can I when can I string the play out
Speaker 4: a little bit longer? And then there have also there's
Speaker 4: been speculation that maybe he's way more banged up than
Speaker 4: he's let on, or then we know, and that might
Speaker 4: provide you don't want to make excuses, like he's flat
Speaker 4: out said that he doesn't want to make excuses for that.
Speaker 4: But there's just there's so many things wrong with the
Speaker 4: offense right now that it's really hard to talk about
Speaker 4: one underperforming group without also thinking about the three other
Speaker 4: underperforming groups that are that are contributing to that. And
Speaker 4: it's just a it's a big it's a big, soggy
Speaker 4: house of cards, like a house of cards in a
Speaker 4: rainstorm or something.
Speaker 3: There's no solid foundation anything.
Speaker 1: Yeah that Bobby Sloweck has constructed. And he's out here
Speaker 1: getting an interview with the Jets for a head coaching job,
Speaker 1: and I can't be the only one thinking at this point.
Speaker 1: And I don't want you don't want to be rooting
Speaker 1: for guys to lose their jobs. But if I had
Speaker 1: to guess, if they have a bad offensive performance, like
Speaker 1: I wouldn't necessarily expect Bobby Slowek to be back as
Speaker 1: the coordinator without knowing anything just how it's operated, because
Speaker 1: I think for half a season CJ was heroic. He
Speaker 1: was making at work despite terrible surroundings, and eventually it
Speaker 1: sort of caved in on him. But they just they
Speaker 1: haven't had solutions. Do you have any optimism that they
Speaker 1: could they could find some here at the last second.
Speaker 4: Like whether it's the coordinator or I mean, the offensive
Speaker 4: line doesn't seem to be executing fundamental things all that well,
Speaker 4: whatever it is, there needs to be a systemic change,
Speaker 4: whether that's changing coaching personnel or their methodology or approach
Speaker 4: to life. I don't know, maybe they need to go
Speaker 4: from maybe they need to be Presbyterians instead of Methodists.
Speaker 3: I don't have a clue. It's it's really really bad.
Speaker 4: And you know where it all came to head was
Speaker 4: in the Ravens game. Really, because you look at the
Speaker 4: Ravens this year, and in Lamar Jackson's second game or
Speaker 4: second year with Todd Monkin, I mean, he looks reborn.
Speaker 4: He looks like a polished NFL quarterback passing quarterback, but
Speaker 4: he can still run the hell out of the ball.
Speaker 4: And it's just everything that you wondered about for years
Speaker 4: with Okay, is it Greg Roman's fault?
Speaker 3: Is it Lamar Jackson's fault?
Speaker 4: I don't know, but Harbaugh, And it's hard to criticize Harba,
Speaker 4: but Harbaugh probably waited too long to make a decision
Speaker 4: on just changing, whether you whether you wanted to blame
Speaker 4: Greg Roman or not or whatever. Like change for change's
Speaker 4: sake some times is a good thing. And if you
Speaker 4: drag it out and drag it out and drag it out,
Speaker 4: I think you can steiny a guy's growth a little bit.
Speaker 4: And I think, and I don't mean to think, I
Speaker 4: don't mean to act like Lamar Jackson wasn't a really
Speaker 4: good passer before. It's just this year, it's it's all
Speaker 4: come together. He's doing all the finer aspects of the game,
Speaker 4: like balancing when to take shots, when to take when
Speaker 4: not to when to run the ball, just pushing the
Speaker 4: ball outside the numbers, with ease.
Speaker 3: It's just it's the complete and total package.
Speaker 4: And I don't I personally like, I don't think that
Speaker 4: you can extend this experiment any longer down the road,
Speaker 4: Like you've got to make some kind of a even
Speaker 4: if the Texans make a nice playoff run here, somehow,
Speaker 4: you got to make some kind of change.
Speaker 1: It's tough to do. It's tough to change the coordinator
Speaker 1: after even winning one playoff game, much less too. I'd
Speaker 1: be stunned if they won two. I would be moderately
Speaker 1: surprised if they won this weekend, but it's not one
Speaker 1: where I look at the three point spread for the
Speaker 1: Charges and like, that's that's a home run. It wouldn't.
Speaker 1: It wouldn't shock me because I do believe in CJ wholeheartedly.
Speaker 1: Kind of the Bryce versus CJ arguments have popped up again,
Speaker 1: and I've loved what Bryce Young has done. But I
Speaker 1: have no I really have no questions about CJ. Stroud's future.
Speaker 1: We do gotta go, but like, do you like I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be locked in near the top, Like
Speaker 1: how how close to the top. We'll find out, But
Speaker 1: to me, he has obviously shown enough at this level
Speaker 1: at such a young age. I really have no doubts
Speaker 1: about him in a similar way that that I had
Speaker 1: for Herbert different because he's not as like just crazy talented,
Speaker 1: but that he's gonna be a very good starter at
Speaker 1: worse for a long time.
Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I have zero concerns about it, Like if
Speaker 4: it comes, I'll be very surprised if.
Speaker 3: He's not better next year.
Speaker 4: And again I think they got to make some changes offensively,
Speaker 4: but the long term, my long term confidence in him
Speaker 4: is unshaken. The biggest thing really with him is ultimately
Speaker 4: I think it's going to be really good for him
Speaker 4: to have gone through this year because there, man, there
Speaker 4: was so much love in praise heaped on all those
Speaker 4: guys offensively in the offseason, and it becomes a cliche
Speaker 4: when you talk about Nick Saban's rat poison or anything.
Speaker 4: You know, just reading your press clipping starting to I
Speaker 4: think there are a lot of guys on that offense
Speaker 4: that didn't genuinely understand how really hard it is to
Speaker 4: win in the NFL, and that's something that happens sometimes
Speaker 4: when you play in the AFC South. So like this
Speaker 4: was a good lest year for a lot of guys,
Speaker 4: multiple teams I was AFC seid. Look, look I played
Speaker 4: for two teams that were both in the old AFC Central.
Speaker 4: Now that was a hard division to win, my friend,
Speaker 4: especially when it was six teams. So yeah, this this,
Speaker 4: this AFC South, I've never felt comfortable being an alumnus
Speaker 4: of it.
Speaker 1: Oh man, I yeah, I'm sorry for miss misdivisioning you.
Speaker 1: I don't even know what was going on.
Speaker 3: In the Cent. You didn't you didn't miss division me.
Speaker 3: It doesn't exist anymore, that's.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. And uh yeah, I do think perspective.
Speaker 4: I played, I was in the AFC South when I
Speaker 4: was with the Texans, but it was the first five
Speaker 4: the first five years was in the AFC Central.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah that makes sense. Back with the Jags and uh,
Speaker 1: like I I don't want to forget, like what a
Speaker 1: journey this team has on been on. It was just
Speaker 1: a few years ago that they were stuck. You know,
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson was hurt. They didn't know everything that they
Speaker 1: had him. They got that trade pulled off. Despite everything
Speaker 1: that we knew about them, they had won ten games
Speaker 1: over three years with three different coaches. The ghost of
Speaker 1: Jack Easterbee was like lingering if they're like, come down
Speaker 1: season is ten and seven with an easy schedule, but
Speaker 1: ten and seven with a home division game in the
Speaker 1: offense bottoms out like that relatively is a very good
Speaker 1: place to be, as is anytime you're watching the Seth
Speaker 1: Pain Show on YouTube, you got to check out Seth's
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. It's wild. Now you're doing this thing where
Speaker 1: you're like watching the highlights and then you talk next
Speaker 1: to it. I didn't even know that's allowed, but that's amazing, trouble.
Speaker 1: That's great.
Speaker 4: They let y'all do you do way more than don't
Speaker 4: tell anybody. It's a little secret thing. Yeah, the NFL
Speaker 4: got really cool with the social media stuff where they'll, uh,
Speaker 4: they'll they'll take all the ad revenue from it, but
Speaker 4: they let you play highlights and everything as long as
Speaker 4: as long as you give them their their cut. Yeah, Okay,
Speaker 4: you can't amounetize the video, but it's yeah, for now,
Speaker 4: at least it's a it's a golden age of YouTube
Speaker 4: on with the NFL content.
Speaker 1: Yeah, check out at Seth Pain Show. If you know,
Speaker 1: you can check out what is it six ' ten?
Speaker 1: I should do.
Speaker 4: I know it's Radio six ten in Houston. Yeah, go
Speaker 4: to the Odyssey app or just watch watch us on
Speaker 4: YouTube is the easiest way. If you're outside of Houston,
Speaker 4: go to the Odyssey app. If you don't, if you
Speaker 4: don't want to burn up all your data.
Speaker 1: Maybe this won't be the last time we talked, Seth.
Speaker 1: Maybe I'll see you in New Orleans.
Speaker 4: Derek Barnette lyon, Derek Burnett's got two touchdowns this year,
Speaker 4: a defensive lineman, a castaway from Philadelphia is two touchdowns
Speaker 4: for the Texans.
Speaker 1: Anything's possible. All right, that's it for our previous show.
Speaker 1: Thank you to Seth Payne. Of course thanks to Steve
Speaker 1: Wish and Patrick Claybon. Yes, when we're bringing on Seth
Speaker 1: payin potentially for the last time in this season, you.
Speaker 3: Know, for calendar year twenty twenty five. Man