WEBVTT - Nick Wadhams on Biden, Xi Meeting (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>President Boughten set to meet Chinese President she Jumping in Bali,

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<v Speaker 1>Indonesia next week, joining us to discuss this. Nick Wadams,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg National Security Reporter, it's a very important meeting. Always

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<v Speaker 1>when we see a meeting between the US and Shina

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<v Speaker 1>and an official saying the President Baden is aiming to

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<v Speaker 1>set a floor for a relationship, but it doesn't look

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<v Speaker 1>like he's going to back down and make it too

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<v Speaker 1>easy for She. What are we expecting make right? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a pretty extraordinary situation when you think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the US basically going in and trying to

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<v Speaker 1>set expectations so low to the degree that all they're

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<v Speaker 1>saying is we're trying to keep this relationship really from

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<v Speaker 1>getting any worse. We heard the National Security Advisor Jake

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<v Speaker 1>Sullivan say today that they would not anticipate there being

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<v Speaker 1>any deliverables from this meeting, So they're not going to

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<v Speaker 1>set up, presumably any new lines of communication, or any

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<v Speaker 1>new committees or any new working groups and anything like

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<v Speaker 1>that that might signal some sort of progress in the relationship.

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<v Speaker 1>They also said there would not be a redoubt of

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<v Speaker 1>the of the meeting, So, um, you know, so we

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<v Speaker 1>won't actually know publicly what happened in this meeting. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just described as a chance for the two of them

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<v Speaker 1>to sort of sit down and look look at each

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<v Speaker 1>other eye to eye and and set some red lines.

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<v Speaker 1>So really, to me, what we're looking at is is

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<v Speaker 1>just something that really symbolizes just how bad relations have

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<v Speaker 1>gotten between the US and China, and how both sides

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<v Speaker 1>seemingly think there's really nowhere for them to go but down. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>in many ways, I mean, you would think that we've

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<v Speaker 1>crossed the red lines, right, whether it's Taiwan or some

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<v Speaker 1>of the technology transfer issues that the Biden administration has

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<v Speaker 1>put into a fact that isn't really limiting UH China's

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<v Speaker 1>access to some of the most advanced semiconductor technology. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it's potential or this relationship has the potential to get

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<v Speaker 1>much worse, doesn't doesn't it? It does? And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I I was thinking today about the echo

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<v Speaker 1>between the way that the administration has talked about this

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<v Speaker 1>meeting and prepared for it and the way that they

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<v Speaker 1>did with the meeting Biden had with Vladimir Putin in

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<v Speaker 1>the summer of one when he went to Geneva you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there was so much hype in Hullabalu around that meeting,

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<v Speaker 1>and it was described in very similar ways. They're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>set guardrails, the US is going to lay down its

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<v Speaker 1>red lines. Of course, what happened, you know, seven eight

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<v Speaker 1>months later Russia went on to invade Ukraine and relations

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<v Speaker 1>between the US and Russia really have never been worse. So,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, on the one him, that's a question of, well,

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<v Speaker 1>how much significance do we sort of imbue these meetings

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<v Speaker 1>with It will be who knows, you know, an hour

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<v Speaker 1>or so, maybe a bit longer meetings between the two

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<v Speaker 1>of them, Um, what can they really solve there? But then,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just so striking to me, and you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the chances for how things could continue to go terribly wrong,

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's new terrorists, whether it's continued tension over Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>I frankly just don't see how Biden can achieve what

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<v Speaker 1>he's saying he wants. I mean either side, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you want to set the floor, well how do

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<v Speaker 1>you do that? And they're not really saying right now

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<v Speaker 1>on the Taiwan front. I mean, we know that there

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<v Speaker 1>has been increased military pressure precious since Pelosi. Nanti Pelosi

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<v Speaker 1>visited Taipei in August. How much do you think we

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<v Speaker 1>are going to see the conversation's focus on those tensions.

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<v Speaker 1>I have a great deal. I think Taiwan will be

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<v Speaker 1>central to that conversation, both mostly because both sides blamed

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<v Speaker 1>the other for inflaming tensions. The US says that it's

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<v Speaker 1>China taking a much more aggressive posture to Taiwan, which

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<v Speaker 1>in some ways it has done over the last several years.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other hand, China is very worried about President

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<v Speaker 1>Biden because he says, you know that the the status

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<v Speaker 1>quo has not changed the US respects to one China policy,

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<v Speaker 1>but then he continues repeatedly to go beyond what that

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<v Speaker 1>policy says, saying that he would defend Taiwan and the

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<v Speaker 1>event that China invaded, which is not something the US

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<v Speaker 1>has committed to before. So um. You know. The thing there, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is interesting, is these these guys know each other's positions

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<v Speaker 1>very clearly. They parse everything the US and China trade

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<v Speaker 1>statements all the time. So I expect it will be

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity to them for them to reiterate those positions.

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<v Speaker 1>But I don't think either of them is going to

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<v Speaker 1>say anything that will surprise the other one. So maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we just have to get used to a deeper decoupling,

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<v Speaker 1>if I can use that term to describe it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we're dealing with two superpowers and uh, increasingly both more

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<v Speaker 1>isolated one from the other. Well, that's certainly seems to

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<v Speaker 1>be the way that it's heading, I mean, and that

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<v Speaker 1>to me is interesting where you could see these guys

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<v Speaker 1>sort of decide, Okay, maybe now it's time to pull

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<v Speaker 1>back from the brink. And maybe that's naive or overly optimistic,

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<v Speaker 1>but if you play out a future, these the world's

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<v Speaker 1>too largest economies, they have essentially intertwined with one another

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<v Speaker 1>so greatly that too d couple would rec fire a

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<v Speaker 1>massive economic rupture that would essentially cause the global economy

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<v Speaker 1>to go into a tailspin um. I mean, this would

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<v Speaker 1>be a major change. So if they're looking over the edge,

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<v Speaker 1>who knows, maybe they'll pull back. Nick, thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for being with us. Nick Wadham's Bloomberg national security reporter,

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<v Speaker 1>helping us a preview next week's meeting between President's Biden

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<v Speaker 1>and she here on Daybreak, Asia