WEBVTT - A Fifth Generation Farmer on Trump’s  $12B Bailout

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Marty Richardson has been a farmer in northwest Missouri for years,

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<v Speaker 2>so many years in fact, that when we asked Marty

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<v Speaker 2>how long it's been, he had to think about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh, let's see, I'm seventy three, So if I started

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<v Speaker 1>when I was in high school, whatever, that has up

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<v Speaker 1>to be sixty years fifty five. I lived in the

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<v Speaker 1>house I was born in, and so living on a farm,

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<v Speaker 1>my generational farm here, so I've been kind of farming

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<v Speaker 1>my whole life.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a family business. Marty's sons are also farmers,

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<v Speaker 2>sixth generation, so they've had a front row seat as

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<v Speaker 2>agriculture has evolved in recent decades.

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<v Speaker 1>Used to be in the hog business, but we got

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<v Speaker 1>out of that twenty years ago. And used to be

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<v Speaker 1>in the tobacco business, and we got out of that.

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<v Speaker 2>These days, Marty's focus is on cattle and row crops,

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<v Speaker 2>mostly corn and soybeans.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I think the twenty five years we had excellent yields.

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<v Speaker 1>We had really good corn, really good beans. Of course,

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<v Speaker 1>the cattle markets an all time high.

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<v Speaker 2>But there's a problem, and it's a big one, a

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<v Speaker 2>threat to his bottom line and thousands of other farmers.

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<v Speaker 1>We're just losing our markets, and then we've lost that

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<v Speaker 1>China market, and combined with high input costs for seed, chemical, fertilizer,

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<v Speaker 1>and fuel, and a farmer can usually stand one or

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<v Speaker 1>the other, but when you get squeezed from both ends,

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<v Speaker 1>it's almost impossible to make any money.

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<v Speaker 2>This week, the White House stepped in to help farmers

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<v Speaker 2>facing that two sided squeeze. On Monday, President Trump announced

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<v Speaker 2>a highly anticipated multi billion dollar relief package.

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<v Speaker 3>We're going to be giving and providing it to the

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<v Speaker 3>farmers in economic assistance.

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<v Speaker 1>And we love our farmers, and.

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<v Speaker 2>As you know, the farmers like me. That relief package

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<v Speaker 2>includes twelve billion dollars in payments money. The US Agriculture

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary of Brooke Rollins called a bridge aid meant to

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<v Speaker 2>help farmers during a difficult time.

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<v Speaker 3>Trump has been saying for quite a while that you know,

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<v Speaker 3>he's going to help farmers. He's not going to leave

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<v Speaker 3>them hurting.

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<v Speaker 2>Aaron Aylworth covers agriculture for Bloomberg. She specializes in the

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<v Speaker 2>grain markets, and Aaron says, this relief package comes at

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<v Speaker 2>the end of what's been a painful year for many

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<v Speaker 2>US farmers, like Marty.

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<v Speaker 3>It's happening now in large part because farmers have been

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<v Speaker 3>struggling for a while, right, and that pressure has just

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<v Speaker 3>been mounting. And farmers are this key voting block for

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<v Speaker 3>the president. They overwhelmingly supported him in the election and

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<v Speaker 3>for the Republican Party, and so with midterms looming, it's like,

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<v Speaker 3>do we want to leave one of our biggest voting bases,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, in pain? And the answer to that, of

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<v Speaker 3>course versus no.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm David Garrett and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News today on the show, US Agriculture at an

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<v Speaker 2>inflection point, the role farmers are playing in the US

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<v Speaker 2>China trade war, and how much of a difference that

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<v Speaker 2>twelve billion dollar farm bailout is likely to make. I

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<v Speaker 2>have a very basic question that is, at this moment,

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<v Speaker 2>at the end of twenty twenty five, how is the

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<v Speaker 2>American farmer doing?

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<v Speaker 3>Broadly speaking, they are hurting. I talked to a farmer yesterday,

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<v Speaker 3>a Rice farmer, and she was telling me that she's

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<v Speaker 3>been on the phone with a lot of other farmers

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<v Speaker 3>and those conversations, quite frankly, are tearful. People are worried

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<v Speaker 3>about their business, about their family farm, essentially about their

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<v Speaker 3>generation's old legacy. In a lot of cases, right, they

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<v Speaker 3>don't want to be the person to have to close

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<v Speaker 3>the door. And that has created a huge mental tool.

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<v Speaker 2>And I imagine the into bankruptcy as well. It's low

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<v Speaker 2>large for load of these.

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<v Speaker 3>Farmers, that's right. Courtant data shows that Chapter twelve bankruptcies,

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<v Speaker 3>which are for farms, are on the rise, and they

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<v Speaker 3>have been for the last two quarters.

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<v Speaker 2>Aaron says, there are a number of reasons why many

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<v Speaker 2>US farmers are going to bind this year. The big

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<v Speaker 2>one is costs are going up.

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<v Speaker 3>It seeds, it's fertilizer, its equipment, it's everything that you

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<v Speaker 3>need to put something in the ground, watch it grow

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<v Speaker 3>and then harvest it. So those prices are up, Commodity

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<v Speaker 3>prices are down, and then you tack on inflation, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and everything is just topsy turvy.

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<v Speaker 2>Farmer's income is also falling. According to the US Agriculture Department,

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<v Speaker 2>income from selling key crops, including wheat, corn, and soybeans,

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<v Speaker 2>has declined since twenty twenty two. And of course, the

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<v Speaker 2>United States is ongoing trade war with China, which has

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<v Speaker 2>put a wedge between row crop farmers like Marty and

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<v Speaker 2>his biggest customer and put sky high tariffs on critical

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<v Speaker 2>inputs like machinery, fertilizer, and seeds. Could you describe the

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<v Speaker 2>challenges of this trade environment when it comes to farmers

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<v Speaker 2>with what the export environment looks like, and we hear

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<v Speaker 2>a lot about China not fulfilling its obligations when it

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<v Speaker 2>comes to purchasing soybeans. Can you describe the way that

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<v Speaker 2>this administration's trade policies have sort of reshaped the environment

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<v Speaker 2>for soybean farmers in specific.

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<v Speaker 3>So this actually goes back to Trump's first administration, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and a trade war in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen,

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<v Speaker 3>and that trade war exacerbated a shift that China was

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<v Speaker 3>already trying to make where they're trying to diversify so

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<v Speaker 3>they're not as dependent on the US as a supplier, right,

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<v Speaker 3>And so they started buying more from Brazil, and US

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<v Speaker 3>farmers haven't really gotten that market share back. And so

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<v Speaker 3>now with this administration and the tariff policies again pushing

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<v Speaker 3>China to other suppliers, American farmers are losing out. They're

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<v Speaker 3>losing that market share again. And you saw in May

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<v Speaker 3>China stopped buying soybeans from the US, and that's a

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<v Speaker 3>huge deal because sowebeans are basically the US's biggest agricultural export, right,

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<v Speaker 3>and they go to China. You know, China uses soybeans

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<v Speaker 3>for it gets crushed into soybean meal for animal feed,

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<v Speaker 3>mostly for pigs, and it gets used in soy oil,

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of thing. So it's a big product, and

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<v Speaker 3>so to not be moving US supply to them, it's

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<v Speaker 3>a big gap. It's a big loss of a customer.

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<v Speaker 2>USDA data showed it between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four,

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<v Speaker 2>China has committed to buying between thirteen and twenty eight

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<v Speaker 2>million metric tons of US soybeans each year. In twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty five, that number dropped to under half a million.

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<v Speaker 3>And so they stopped buying in May, and that was

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<v Speaker 3>to essentially try and and gain leverage in these trade

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<v Speaker 3>talks with the Trump administration, and I think it largely worked, right.

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<v Speaker 3>They didn't buy in September when the new marketing year started,

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<v Speaker 3>and so September everybody's like waiting for these purchases and

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<v Speaker 3>they're like, oh no. Like the USDA data that comes out,

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<v Speaker 3>you just keep seeing zero zero zero.

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<v Speaker 2>For Marty richardson the politics behind that business shift were clear.

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<v Speaker 1>I hate to say it like this, but he's just

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<v Speaker 1>kind of This country doesn't have a whole lot to

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<v Speaker 1>trade to other countries except food or agricultural products. So

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes in a trade deal we get held hostage the

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<v Speaker 1>American farmer because that's the only thing we got to

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<v Speaker 1>barter with.

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<v Speaker 3>Once Trump and she talked in late October, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>the Trump administration said, okay, China has pledged to buy

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<v Speaker 3>these twelve million soybeans.

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<v Speaker 2>That's twelve million tons of soybeans.

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<v Speaker 3>The market went nuts, and you saw a huge jump

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<v Speaker 3>in soybean prices, which has started to fade now because

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<v Speaker 3>China hasn't been buying at a fast paced They have

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<v Speaker 3>been buying, but they're still buying from Brazil, and so

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<v Speaker 3>Brazil and South America have become just a you know,

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<v Speaker 3>an increasingly bigger and bigger competitor. And the economists that

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<v Speaker 3>I talked to don't think that that's going to swing

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<v Speaker 3>back to the US, especially not immediately.

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<v Speaker 2>Neither does Marty Richardson.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what's odd to China coming back and buying

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<v Speaker 1>beings like they was three or four years ago, slimmed

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<v Speaker 1>to none because They've got that Brazil down there. They're

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<v Speaker 1>raising huge cross and I can't see fuel going down much,

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<v Speaker 1>fertilizer going down much, or seed going down much, or

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<v Speaker 1>john deer going down. I mean, that's called inflation. When

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<v Speaker 1>everything goes up, very few things go back down. And

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<v Speaker 1>corn and beans and wheat and rice and cotton have

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<v Speaker 1>not had that inflationary jump, but the rest of everything

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<v Speaker 1>else has had. You're just not going to see those

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<v Speaker 1>main four or five things that we buy to raise

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<v Speaker 1>a crop. You're not going to see those retreat much.

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<v Speaker 2>The relief package Trump announced on Monday is designed to

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<v Speaker 2>offset some of that lost business in the form of

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<v Speaker 2>one time payments, which will be parceled out to growers

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<v Speaker 2>of certain row crops, including soybeans, wheat, and sorghum, and

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<v Speaker 2>to growers of specialty crops like sugar. In a press release,

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<v Speaker 2>the administration said those payments are intended to help farmers

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<v Speaker 2>whether temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs, which

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<v Speaker 2>it says stem from Biden administration policies. It's aimed to

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<v Speaker 2>help them stay afloat until investments from the One Big

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<v Speaker 2>Beautiful Bill Act going to effect in late twenty twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>Aaron says the administration has yet to release key details

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<v Speaker 2>of how the aid is going to be distributed. For instance,

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<v Speaker 2>what kind of relief is each crop going to qualify for.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the biggie. That's really what's going to tell you

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<v Speaker 3>who's getting the most help and who's not. So until

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<v Speaker 3>we have that number, we're a little bit in the dark.

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<v Speaker 3>We know it's coming. The administration has said that they

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<v Speaker 3>expect to deliver all of the aid by the end

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<v Speaker 3>of February or before, so we will see, but we

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<v Speaker 3>are still waiting for a lot of those key details.

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<v Speaker 2>There will be folks listening to this who are wondering

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<v Speaker 2>why farmers are getting this relief package. Of all the

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<v Speaker 2>constituents across this country who have been changing behavior, the

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<v Speaker 2>way they work, the way their business is oper rate

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<v Speaker 2>because of these trade policies, why are farmers being singled down?

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<v Speaker 2>What's your answer to that question.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, one, they're such a huge, huge voter blood.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a political reason.

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<v Speaker 3>Ye, yes, it is a political reason. They are huge

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<v Speaker 3>supporters of this administration and a key voting base for Republicans.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that's a big piece of it. Another

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<v Speaker 3>piece of it is. You know, the egg industry is huge,

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<v Speaker 3>and soybeans are the biggest US agricultural export, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 3>it's it's big business. So I think those two things,

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<v Speaker 3>politics and business, power and.

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<v Speaker 2>Money coming up after the break the politics of US

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<v Speaker 2>agriculture now and historically, and what's at stake for the

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<v Speaker 2>industry if current trends aren't reversed. The trade war between

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<v Speaker 2>the US and China has posed a significant challenge for

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<v Speaker 2>US soybean farmers, but American agriculture has also been impacted

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<v Speaker 2>by changes the Trump administration has made to the federal

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<v Speaker 2>government itself and what it prioritizes. Bloomberg Agriculture reporter Aaron

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<v Speaker 2>Aylworth says the country's farming industry and its politics have

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<v Speaker 2>long been intertwined.

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<v Speaker 3>Agriculture for the US is it's a huge source of

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<v Speaker 3>power and leverage. We had, you know, we've historically had

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<v Speaker 3>this thing called bread basket diplomacy, where we have been

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<v Speaker 3>able to send our surpluses to other countries either as

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<v Speaker 3>aid or we have withheld it as punishment, depending on

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<v Speaker 3>whether you're an ally or an enemy, right, And that

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<v Speaker 3>has been hugely politically helpful for a long time. That

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<v Speaker 3>has been fading away. And that's what I think we

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<v Speaker 3>are watching a piece of right now. Is is that

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<v Speaker 3>kind of shift where you know, we may have been

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<v Speaker 3>the top exporter of corn, soybean, and wheat for decades,

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<v Speaker 3>but are we today not so much? You know, we've

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<v Speaker 3>fallen down in those ranks a little bit. And that's

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<v Speaker 3>what we're watching in real time now. I mean every

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<v Speaker 3>day I start my morning going, is there a flash

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<v Speaker 3>sale of soybeans to China? Or did they buy from

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<v Speaker 3>Brazil and Argentina again? And that's exactly what the traders

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<v Speaker 3>that I'm talking to are watching too. Who's buying what

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<v Speaker 3>and where are they buying from, especially if it's not

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<v Speaker 3>the US.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to stick with this because you're kind of

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<v Speaker 2>indicating that US agriculture played this role in buffeting or

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<v Speaker 2>enhancing the us is ability to project soft power around

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<v Speaker 2>the world. We tend to focus on the business side

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<v Speaker 2>of this, the commercial relationship, But how big a deal

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<v Speaker 2>was that when you look at the agriculture industry broadly,

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<v Speaker 2>the way that it kind of dovetailed with or complemented

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<v Speaker 2>kind of larger diplomatic or geo of political ambitions the

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<v Speaker 2>US had.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I mean you look at what we did with

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.400
<v Speaker 3>our European allies in fighting Germany, right, and at one

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:24.440
<v Speaker 3>point getting them food supplies, agricultural supplies was just as

0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:28.240
<v Speaker 3>important as getting them weapons. I think that's a big

0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:32.080
<v Speaker 3>example these days. You know, the US has been known

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 3>for sending so much food aid around the world through

0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 3>the UN and other programs. You know, is that changing

0:14:38.960 --> 0:14:44.360
<v Speaker 3>with this new administration of these policies. Yes, right, So

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 3>I think that's that's in part how China was able

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:54.520
<v Speaker 3>to weaponize soweebeans, if you will, because they know that

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:57.120
<v Speaker 3>it's a big business and a big part of our

0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:02.360
<v Speaker 3>i think global identity to be this food supplier, and

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:05.119
<v Speaker 3>so by taking that business away and shifting it elsewhere,

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:10.080
<v Speaker 3>they had the ability to say, we're not just going

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 3>to swallow this terraf for this policy that you're trying

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:14.520
<v Speaker 3>to force on us. US.

0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 2>I think there's the old line that farmers have to

0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 2>be optimist by nature all of the difficulties they face,

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 2>which makes me wonder when you look at the agriculture

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 2>environment today, what is giving them reasons to be hopeful

0:15:28.000 --> 0:15:28.800
<v Speaker 2>about the industry.

0:15:29.040 --> 0:15:32.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, they are hopeful for new markets, right, I mean

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:35.360
<v Speaker 3>I talk to farmers almost every day at this point,

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.840
<v Speaker 3>and they're saying, like, listen, the tariffs are hurting us,

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 3>but at least somebody is negotiating. They have felt like

0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.280
<v Speaker 3>they haven't had the best deal in the past, that

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:53.720
<v Speaker 3>they weren't necessarily getting the fair prices that their crops

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:58.440
<v Speaker 3>should and so now they see somebody at least trying

0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 3>to open conversation and get it new markets. Now is

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 3>that working? You know, depends on who you ask. The

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 3>administration has touted a number of deals that have come through,

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 3>but some market watchers will point out how many of

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:16.960
<v Speaker 3>those actually have like a written, signed deal behind it.

0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:19.680
<v Speaker 3>That's one of the key things that we're waiting for

0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.520
<v Speaker 3>with China is like everyone's like, okay, we have a pledge,

0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:28.080
<v Speaker 3>a commitment. Where's the signed piece of paper that lays

0:16:28.120 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 3>out exactly what the commitment is and what the rules

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 3>are basically. And until we have that, do we actually

0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 3>have a deal? Big question.

0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:43.480
<v Speaker 2>What's at stake for the US if the agriculture industry

0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.000
<v Speaker 2>succeeds or fails. So it's under all of these constraints,

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 2>it's a very difficult period. How should we think about

0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 2>its importance broadly to the health of this country?

0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 3>To the US. You know, before I started this speed,

0:16:57.960 --> 0:17:06.200
<v Speaker 3>I didn't realize just how many things agricultural products are in. Right,

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 3>It's not just the.

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:08.360
<v Speaker 1>Food we eat.

0:17:08.840 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 3>It's some of the stuff that's in near gasoline at

0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:15.800
<v Speaker 3>the gas station. It could eventually be used to fly

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:20.200
<v Speaker 3>your airplanes. Right, it's going into your dog food, it's

0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:25.920
<v Speaker 3>feeding the cattle. It's this massive business ecosystem. And if

0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.959
<v Speaker 3>that fails, if that big of an industry fails in

0:17:29.000 --> 0:17:31.640
<v Speaker 3>the US, I think we've got a real problem.

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 2>Marty Richardson in Missouri isn't optimistic that farmers like him

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.560
<v Speaker 2>will ever see Chinese soybean purchases return to where they

0:17:39.600 --> 0:17:42.800
<v Speaker 2>were before the trade war, or that the Trump administration's

0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 2>farm bailout will make much of a difference for farmers.

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:49.840
<v Speaker 1>This bridge that are given us, or this hand out

0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:53.719
<v Speaker 1>some people call it, or welfare, some people call it.

0:17:53.720 --> 0:17:56.680
<v Speaker 1>It's really not even a band aid. Let me use

0:17:56.720 --> 0:18:00.399
<v Speaker 1>this analogy. Your short two hundred dollars in your banking camp,

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:05.280
<v Speaker 1>and I give you thirty bucks. Yeah, that's going to help,

0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:09.520
<v Speaker 1>but not really so. And I'm not saying he should

0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:12.240
<v Speaker 1>have give everything we lost, Don't get me wrong there,

0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:14.760
<v Speaker 1>but I can't see it's going to do anything.

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:18.520
<v Speaker 2>He told our producer David Fox that finding new markets,

0:18:18.560 --> 0:18:21.800
<v Speaker 2>both foreign and domestic, is critical for the next generation

0:18:21.880 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 2>of US farmers. But for the moment, he says, it

0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.119
<v Speaker 2>looks like there's a long road to ho.

0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 1>I got a grandson, and the way the world is now,

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>I'd love to see him farm. But he's only ten,

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.200
<v Speaker 1>so in ten years it's no different. I might tell

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:40.679
<v Speaker 1>him maybe he needs to do something different. He's going

0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.520
<v Speaker 1>to be in the NBA, he told me so.

0:18:43.920 --> 0:18:45.760
<v Speaker 3>I doubt it, but well, at least he's got a

0:18:45.760 --> 0:18:46.320
<v Speaker 3>backup plan.

0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:48.400
<v Speaker 1>There you go, There you go.

0:18:54.240 --> 0:18:56.679
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerry.

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.280
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0:18:59.280 --> 0:19:01.840
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0:19:01.920 --> 0:19:06.120
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0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:08.240
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0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:10.640
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0:19:11.160 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.