1 00:00:02,680 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 2: Marty Richardson has been a farmer in northwest Missouri for years, 3 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 2: so many years in fact, that when we asked Marty 4 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 2: how long it's been, he had to think about it. 5 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: Oh, let's see, I'm seventy three, So if I started 6 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,120 Speaker 1: when I was in high school, whatever, that has up 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: to be sixty years fifty five. I lived in the 8 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: house I was born in, and so living on a farm, 9 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: my generational farm here, so I've been kind of farming 10 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 1: my whole life. 11 00:00:39,159 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 2: This is a family business. Marty's sons are also farmers, 12 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 2: sixth generation, so they've had a front row seat as 13 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 2: agriculture has evolved in recent decades. 14 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 1: Used to be in the hog business, but we got 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 1: out of that twenty years ago. And used to be 16 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: in the tobacco business, and we got out of that. 17 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 2: These days, Marty's focus is on cattle and row crops, 18 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 2: mostly corn and soybeans. 19 00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: Well, I think the twenty five years we had excellent yields. 20 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 1: We had really good corn, really good beans. Of course, 21 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,679 Speaker 1: the cattle markets an all time high. 22 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 2: But there's a problem, and it's a big one, a 23 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,320 Speaker 2: threat to his bottom line and thousands of other farmers. 24 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: We're just losing our markets, and then we've lost that 25 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: China market, and combined with high input costs for seed, chemical, fertilizer, 26 00:01:30,480 --> 00:01:34,240 Speaker 1: and fuel, and a farmer can usually stand one or 27 00:01:34,280 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: the other, but when you get squeezed from both ends, 28 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 1: it's almost impossible to make any money. 29 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: This week, the White House stepped in to help farmers 30 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 2: facing that two sided squeeze. On Monday, President Trump announced 31 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 2: a highly anticipated multi billion dollar relief package. 32 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 3: We're going to be giving and providing it to the 33 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 3: farmers in economic assistance. 34 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 1: And we love our farmers, and. 35 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: As you know, the farmers like me. That relief package 36 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 2: includes twelve billion dollars in payments money. The US Agriculture 37 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,359 Speaker 2: Secretary of Brooke Rollins called a bridge aid meant to 38 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,640 Speaker 2: help farmers during a difficult time. 39 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 3: Trump has been saying for quite a while that you know, 40 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 3: he's going to help farmers. He's not going to leave 41 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 3: them hurting. 42 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: Aaron Aylworth covers agriculture for Bloomberg. She specializes in the 43 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 2: grain markets, and Aaron says, this relief package comes at 44 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,679 Speaker 2: the end of what's been a painful year for many 45 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 2: US farmers, like Marty. 46 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:37,360 Speaker 3: It's happening now in large part because farmers have been 47 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 3: struggling for a while, right, and that pressure has just 48 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:45,679 Speaker 3: been mounting. And farmers are this key voting block for 49 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 3: the president. They overwhelmingly supported him in the election and 50 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 3: for the Republican Party, and so with midterms looming, it's like, 51 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,919 Speaker 3: do we want to leave one of our biggest voting bases, 52 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 3: you know, in pain? And the answer to that, of 53 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 3: course versus no. 54 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: I'm David Garrett and this is the big take from 55 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,880 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News today on the show, US Agriculture at an 56 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: inflection point, the role farmers are playing in the US 57 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 2: China trade war, and how much of a difference that 58 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 2: twelve billion dollar farm bailout is likely to make. I 59 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 2: have a very basic question that is, at this moment, 60 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 2: at the end of twenty twenty five, how is the 61 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 2: American farmer doing? 62 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 3: Broadly speaking, they are hurting. I talked to a farmer yesterday, 63 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 3: a Rice farmer, and she was telling me that she's 64 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 3: been on the phone with a lot of other farmers 65 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 3: and those conversations, quite frankly, are tearful. People are worried 66 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,119 Speaker 3: about their business, about their family farm, essentially about their 67 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 3: generation's old legacy. In a lot of cases, right, they 68 00:03:50,840 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: don't want to be the person to have to close 69 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 3: the door. And that has created a huge mental tool. 70 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 2: And I imagine the into bankruptcy as well. It's low 71 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 2: large for load of these. 72 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 3: Farmers, that's right. Courtant data shows that Chapter twelve bankruptcies, 73 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,840 Speaker 3: which are for farms, are on the rise, and they 74 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,160 Speaker 3: have been for the last two quarters. 75 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 2: Aaron says, there are a number of reasons why many 76 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: US farmers are going to bind this year. The big 77 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 2: one is costs are going up. 78 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 3: It seeds, it's fertilizer, its equipment, it's everything that you 79 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 3: need to put something in the ground, watch it grow 80 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 3: and then harvest it. So those prices are up, Commodity 81 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,599 Speaker 3: prices are down, and then you tack on inflation, right, 82 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 3: and everything is just topsy turvy. 83 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 2: Farmer's income is also falling. According to the US Agriculture Department, 84 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 2: income from selling key crops, including wheat, corn, and soybeans, 85 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 2: has declined since twenty twenty two. And of course, the 86 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: United States is ongoing trade war with China, which has 87 00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 2: put a wedge between row crop farmers like Marty and 88 00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:01,880 Speaker 2: his biggest customer and put sky high tariffs on critical 89 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 2: inputs like machinery, fertilizer, and seeds. Could you describe the 90 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 2: challenges of this trade environment when it comes to farmers 91 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 2: with what the export environment looks like, and we hear 92 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: a lot about China not fulfilling its obligations when it 93 00:05:15,760 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 2: comes to purchasing soybeans. Can you describe the way that 94 00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 2: this administration's trade policies have sort of reshaped the environment 95 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 2: for soybean farmers in specific. 96 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 3: So this actually goes back to Trump's first administration, right, 97 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 3: and a trade war in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen, 98 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 3: and that trade war exacerbated a shift that China was 99 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 3: already trying to make where they're trying to diversify so 100 00:05:42,000 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 3: they're not as dependent on the US as a supplier, right, 101 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 3: And so they started buying more from Brazil, and US 102 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 3: farmers haven't really gotten that market share back. And so 103 00:05:57,120 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 3: now with this administration and the tariff policies again pushing 104 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 3: China to other suppliers, American farmers are losing out. They're 105 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:14,440 Speaker 3: losing that market share again. And you saw in May 106 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 3: China stopped buying soybeans from the US, and that's a 107 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 3: huge deal because sowebeans are basically the US's biggest agricultural export, right, 108 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 3: and they go to China. You know, China uses soybeans 109 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 3: for it gets crushed into soybean meal for animal feed, 110 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 3: mostly for pigs, and it gets used in soy oil, 111 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: that kind of thing. So it's a big product, and 112 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 3: so to not be moving US supply to them, it's 113 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,480 Speaker 3: a big gap. It's a big loss of a customer. 114 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 2: USDA data showed it between twenty twenty and twenty twenty four, 115 00:06:56,960 --> 00:07:00,159 Speaker 2: China has committed to buying between thirteen and twenty eight 116 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 2: million metric tons of US soybeans each year. In twenty 117 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: twenty five, that number dropped to under half a million. 118 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 3: And so they stopped buying in May, and that was 119 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:18,680 Speaker 3: to essentially try and and gain leverage in these trade 120 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 3: talks with the Trump administration, and I think it largely worked, right. 121 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:29,239 Speaker 3: They didn't buy in September when the new marketing year started, 122 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:32,600 Speaker 3: and so September everybody's like waiting for these purchases and 123 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:37,160 Speaker 3: they're like, oh no. Like the USDA data that comes out, 124 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 3: you just keep seeing zero zero zero. 125 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: For Marty richardson the politics behind that business shift were clear. 126 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: I hate to say it like this, but he's just 127 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 1: kind of This country doesn't have a whole lot to 128 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: trade to other countries except food or agricultural products. So 129 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: sometimes in a trade deal we get held hostage the 130 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: American farmer because that's the only thing we got to 131 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:06,440 Speaker 1: barter with. 132 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 3: Once Trump and she talked in late October, and you know, 133 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 3: the Trump administration said, okay, China has pledged to buy 134 00:08:15,720 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 3: these twelve million soybeans. 135 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 2: That's twelve million tons of soybeans. 136 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 3: The market went nuts, and you saw a huge jump 137 00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 3: in soybean prices, which has started to fade now because 138 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 3: China hasn't been buying at a fast paced They have 139 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 3: been buying, but they're still buying from Brazil, and so 140 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 3: Brazil and South America have become just a you know, 141 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:41,120 Speaker 3: an increasingly bigger and bigger competitor. And the economists that 142 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,320 Speaker 3: I talked to don't think that that's going to swing 143 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 3: back to the US, especially not immediately. 144 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 2: Neither does Marty Richardson. 145 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: I mean, what's odd to China coming back and buying 146 00:08:50,920 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: beings like they was three or four years ago, slimmed 147 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: to none because They've got that Brazil down there. They're 148 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: raising huge cross and I can't see fuel going down much, 149 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: fertilizer going down much, or seed going down much, or 150 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: john deer going down. I mean, that's called inflation. When 151 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 1: everything goes up, very few things go back down. And 152 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: corn and beans and wheat and rice and cotton have 153 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: not had that inflationary jump, but the rest of everything 154 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: else has had. You're just not going to see those 155 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 1: main four or five things that we buy to raise 156 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:37,079 Speaker 1: a crop. You're not going to see those retreat much. 157 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 2: The relief package Trump announced on Monday is designed to 158 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: offset some of that lost business in the form of 159 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 2: one time payments, which will be parceled out to growers 160 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 2: of certain row crops, including soybeans, wheat, and sorghum, and 161 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 2: to growers of specialty crops like sugar. In a press release, 162 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 2: the administration said those payments are intended to help farmers 163 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 2: whether temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs, which 164 00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 2: it says stem from Biden administration policies. It's aimed to 165 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,360 Speaker 2: help them stay afloat until investments from the One Big 166 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 2: Beautiful Bill Act going to effect in late twenty twenty six. 167 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 2: Aaron says the administration has yet to release key details 168 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,480 Speaker 2: of how the aid is going to be distributed. For instance, 169 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: what kind of relief is each crop going to qualify for. 170 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 3: That's the biggie. That's really what's going to tell you 171 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 3: who's getting the most help and who's not. So until 172 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,920 Speaker 3: we have that number, we're a little bit in the dark. 173 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 3: We know it's coming. The administration has said that they 174 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 3: expect to deliver all of the aid by the end 175 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 3: of February or before, so we will see, but we 176 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 3: are still waiting for a lot of those key details. 177 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 2: There will be folks listening to this who are wondering 178 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 2: why farmers are getting this relief package. Of all the 179 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 2: constituents across this country who have been changing behavior, the 180 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 2: way they work, the way their business is oper rate 181 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 2: because of these trade policies, why are farmers being singled down? 182 00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 2: What's your answer to that question. 183 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 3: I mean, one, they're such a huge, huge voter blood. 184 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 2: It's a political reason. 185 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 3: Ye, yes, it is a political reason. They are huge 186 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 3: supporters of this administration and a key voting base for Republicans. 187 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: So I think that's a big piece of it. Another 188 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 3: piece of it is. You know, the egg industry is huge, 189 00:11:30,520 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 3: and soybeans are the biggest US agricultural export, right, I mean, 190 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,200 Speaker 3: it's it's big business. So I think those two things, 191 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 3: politics and business, power and. 192 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: Money coming up after the break the politics of US 193 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 2: agriculture now and historically, and what's at stake for the 194 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 2: industry if current trends aren't reversed. The trade war between 195 00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:12,960 Speaker 2: the US and China has posed a significant challenge for 196 00:12:13,080 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 2: US soybean farmers, but American agriculture has also been impacted 197 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:20,079 Speaker 2: by changes the Trump administration has made to the federal 198 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:24,960 Speaker 2: government itself and what it prioritizes. Bloomberg Agriculture reporter Aaron 199 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:28,800 Speaker 2: Aylworth says the country's farming industry and its politics have 200 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 2: long been intertwined. 201 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:35,199 Speaker 3: Agriculture for the US is it's a huge source of 202 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 3: power and leverage. We had, you know, we've historically had 203 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 3: this thing called bread basket diplomacy, where we have been 204 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 3: able to send our surpluses to other countries either as 205 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 3: aid or we have withheld it as punishment, depending on 206 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 3: whether you're an ally or an enemy, right, And that 207 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:02,439 Speaker 3: has been hugely politically helpful for a long time. That 208 00:13:02,640 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 3: has been fading away. And that's what I think we 209 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 3: are watching a piece of right now. Is is that 210 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 3: kind of shift where you know, we may have been 211 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 3: the top exporter of corn, soybean, and wheat for decades, 212 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 3: but are we today not so much? You know, we've 213 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 3: fallen down in those ranks a little bit. And that's 214 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 3: what we're watching in real time now. I mean every 215 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 3: day I start my morning going, is there a flash 216 00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 3: sale of soybeans to China? Or did they buy from 217 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 3: Brazil and Argentina again? And that's exactly what the traders 218 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 3: that I'm talking to are watching too. Who's buying what 219 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 3: and where are they buying from, especially if it's not 220 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 3: the US. 221 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 2: I want to stick with this because you're kind of 222 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,079 Speaker 2: indicating that US agriculture played this role in buffeting or 223 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 2: enhancing the us is ability to project soft power around 224 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 2: the world. We tend to focus on the business side 225 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 2: of this, the commercial relationship, But how big a deal 226 00:14:05,679 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 2: was that when you look at the agriculture industry broadly, 227 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 2: the way that it kind of dovetailed with or complemented 228 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:13,160 Speaker 2: kind of larger diplomatic or geo of political ambitions the 229 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 2: US had. 230 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 3: Well, I mean you look at what we did with 231 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 3: our European allies in fighting Germany, right, and at one 232 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 3: point getting them food supplies, agricultural supplies was just as 233 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 3: important as getting them weapons. I think that's a big 234 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 3: example these days. You know, the US has been known 235 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 3: for sending so much food aid around the world through 236 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 3: the UN and other programs. You know, is that changing 237 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 3: with this new administration of these policies. Yes, right, So 238 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,000 Speaker 3: I think that's that's in part how China was able 239 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 3: to weaponize soweebeans, if you will, because they know that 240 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,120 Speaker 3: it's a big business and a big part of our 241 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:02,360 Speaker 3: i think global identity to be this food supplier, and 242 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,119 Speaker 3: so by taking that business away and shifting it elsewhere, 243 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 3: they had the ability to say, we're not just going 244 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 3: to swallow this terraf for this policy that you're trying 245 00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 3: to force on us. US. 246 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: I think there's the old line that farmers have to 247 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 2: be optimist by nature all of the difficulties they face, 248 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 2: which makes me wonder when you look at the agriculture 249 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: environment today, what is giving them reasons to be hopeful 250 00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: about the industry. 251 00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, they are hopeful for new markets, right, I mean 252 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 3: I talk to farmers almost every day at this point, 253 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 3: and they're saying, like, listen, the tariffs are hurting us, 254 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 3: but at least somebody is negotiating. They have felt like 255 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 3: they haven't had the best deal in the past, that 256 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: they weren't necessarily getting the fair prices that their crops 257 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 3: should and so now they see somebody at least trying 258 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 3: to open conversation and get it new markets. Now is 259 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:06,320 Speaker 3: that working? You know, depends on who you ask. The 260 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 3: administration has touted a number of deals that have come through, 261 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 3: but some market watchers will point out how many of 262 00:16:13,160 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 3: those actually have like a written, signed deal behind it. 263 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 3: That's one of the key things that we're waiting for 264 00:16:19,840 --> 00:16:23,520 Speaker 3: with China is like everyone's like, okay, we have a pledge, 265 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:28,080 Speaker 3: a commitment. Where's the signed piece of paper that lays 266 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 3: out exactly what the commitment is and what the rules 267 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 3: are basically. And until we have that, do we actually 268 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:37,200 Speaker 3: have a deal? Big question. 269 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: What's at stake for the US if the agriculture industry 270 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 2: succeeds or fails. So it's under all of these constraints, 271 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,320 Speaker 2: it's a very difficult period. How should we think about 272 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 2: its importance broadly to the health of this country? 273 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 3: To the US. You know, before I started this speed, 274 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:06,200 Speaker 3: I didn't realize just how many things agricultural products are in. Right, 275 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 3: It's not just the. 276 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:08,360 Speaker 1: Food we eat. 277 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 3: It's some of the stuff that's in near gasoline at 278 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 3: the gas station. It could eventually be used to fly 279 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,200 Speaker 3: your airplanes. Right, it's going into your dog food, it's 280 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 3: feeding the cattle. It's this massive business ecosystem. And if 281 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,959 Speaker 3: that fails, if that big of an industry fails in 282 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 3: the US, I think we've got a real problem. 283 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 2: Marty Richardson in Missouri isn't optimistic that farmers like him 284 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 2: will ever see Chinese soybean purchases return to where they 285 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 2: were before the trade war, or that the Trump administration's 286 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 2: farm bailout will make much of a difference for farmers. 287 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,840 Speaker 1: This bridge that are given us, or this hand out 288 00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 1: some people call it, or welfare, some people call it. 289 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 1: It's really not even a band aid. Let me use 290 00:17:56,720 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: this analogy. Your short two hundred dollars in your banking camp, 291 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 1: and I give you thirty bucks. Yeah, that's going to help, 292 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: but not really so. And I'm not saying he should 293 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: have give everything we lost, Don't get me wrong there, 294 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 1: but I can't see it's going to do anything. 295 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 2: He told our producer David Fox that finding new markets, 296 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 2: both foreign and domestic, is critical for the next generation 297 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 2: of US farmers. But for the moment, he says, it 298 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:27,119 Speaker 2: looks like there's a long road to ho. 299 00:18:27,760 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: I got a grandson, and the way the world is now, 300 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: I'd love to see him farm. But he's only ten, 301 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,200 Speaker 1: so in ten years it's no different. I might tell 302 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 1: him maybe he needs to do something different. He's going 303 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 1: to be in the NBA, he told me so. 304 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 3: I doubt it, but well, at least he's got a 305 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 3: backup plan. 306 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:48,400 Speaker 1: There you go, There you go. 307 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gerry. 308 00:18:57,040 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 309 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 2: to all of the Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at 310 00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, 311 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 2: make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever 312 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 313 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.