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Speaker 1: These are treacherous times for two reasons.

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Speaker 2: Number one, the JP pole tonight, I'm just gonna tell

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Speaker 2: you one of the more controversial JP.

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Speaker 1: Polls I've ever held in my hand immunity.

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Speaker 2: And number two, I feel suspiciously good about these games

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Speaker 2: that we're going to predict on the shows. I mean,

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Speaker 2: like really, really troublingly good, which could mean we got

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Speaker 2: genius time coming Sunday night or we've got complete and

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Speaker 2: utter implosion coming Sunday night. Either way, we'll have a

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Speaker 2: show here Sunday night. Well, we've got a show tonight.

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Speaker 2: It is Tuesday night, October fifteenth. There of Our Lord

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. We were jam packed high top a

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Speaker 2: really noisy downtown Nashville, Tennessee, and proudly brought to you

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Speaker 2: by Academy Sports and Outdoors. Like I said, really consequential

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Speaker 2: games this weekend. We got Georgia, Texas. We got bamat Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: You know, Miami Louisville has huge implications on it as well,

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Speaker 2: LSU and Arkansas does. Don't let them tell you other one.

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Speaker 2: I got a game featuring Tiger versus Tiger that I

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Speaker 2: feel very good about. Tiger's gonna win it. I don't know,

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Speaker 2: maybe not the one people expect. I don't even know

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Speaker 2: what people expect anymore. I've got some things to say

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Speaker 2: about Ryan Day on the show tonight.

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Speaker 1: I have got three added best bets on the show tonight.

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Speaker 2: It is jam packed as we could possibly be here

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Speaker 2: on this Tuesday night. They're watching us in Dana Point, California,

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Speaker 2: Winston Salem, North Carolina, Danville, Virginia, and Dunlap, Tennessee. A

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Speaker 2: reminder now that I feel safe that we've got it restocked.

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Speaker 1: The Peate State store is wide open.

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Speaker 2: Those chugg e t's have been predictably our bestseller, and

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Speaker 2: we're restocked with them.

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Speaker 1: We're good to go.

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Speaker 2: Peytstatematerial dot Com. I just shouted out every now and

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Speaker 2: then sparingly because I don't want to flood the site.

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Speaker 2: But peytstatematerial dot com is open for business. Okay, let's

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Speaker 2: dive into the show tonight. You know, Tuesday Night's prediction

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Speaker 2: night on the show. And I just ask this you.

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Speaker 2: Number one, make sure you subscribe if you haven't already.

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Speaker 2: And number two lock in and if you disagree with

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Speaker 2: any of the picks, that's fine, that is your constitutional right.

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Speaker 2: And hop in the comments and feel free, but don't

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Speaker 2: be doing what people did. Earlier this week, I said

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Speaker 2: Olson was the loudest stadium in the Big ten and

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Speaker 2: a bunch of folks disagreed with me, and I was like,

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Speaker 2: have you ever been there?

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Speaker 1: And they're like, well no, but you're still wrong, am I?

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Speaker 1: I'm the one who's been to all these places? Have you?

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Speaker 2: Then I had another guy, another guy popped in the

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Speaker 2: DMS today and said, you're one of those people who

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Speaker 2: thinks you have to have been there to comment on something.

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Speaker 2: And I've never felt more guilty in my life because guilty.

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Speaker 2: I absolutely do think you need to probably have been

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Speaker 2: somewhere in order to comment on it. So if you

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Speaker 2: disagree with that's probably not the show for you. And

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Speaker 2: I don't know how we just got on that, but

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Speaker 2: uh oh, what I was going to say is if

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Speaker 2: you disagree with the picks, that's great. Someone's got to

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Speaker 2: be right and someone's got to be wrong. Don't just

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Speaker 2: come in the comment section to say you're wrong. Tell

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Speaker 2: me why I'm wrong, tell me why you think you're right,

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Speaker 2: Give me the way you think it's going to go down.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now that we've got that out, of the way.

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Speaker 2: Georgia at Texas Saturday, seven thirty Eastern six thirty local

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Speaker 2: time on ABC. It's one of the games of the

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Speaker 2: year in college football. And this is still rarefied air

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Speaker 2: for Texas. I think they're great. Most of you think

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Speaker 2: they're great, some of you think they're just pretty good.

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Speaker 2: I think they're way up there, But you got to

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Speaker 2: understand this is still rarefied air for them. The quality

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Speaker 2: of opponent this weekend will be nothing like they've seen

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Speaker 2: so far this year, including in.

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Speaker 1: The Michigan game.

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Speaker 2: We all know that, but also, do you realize an

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Speaker 2: early paper popper of a stat here. Do you realize

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Speaker 2: Texas's last win over an AP top five team at

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Speaker 2: home was pre y two k It was nineteen ninety nine.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of things that have been a long

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Speaker 2: time coming could be erased this weekend. So there was

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Speaker 2: a mild concern I had in the preseason when I

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Speaker 2: looked at Texas' schedule, which was otherwise pretty workable, and

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Speaker 2: that was this two week stretch man. The schedule makers

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Speaker 2: are going to make them play OU and then Georgia

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Speaker 2: in the span of what seven or eight days. Well,

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Speaker 2: as it turns out, it doesn't matter because they just

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Speaker 2: kind of rolled over Oklahoma and the second half of

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Speaker 2: the game wasn't in doubt, so nothing really got expended

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Speaker 2: last week. Texas comes in here as full steam ahead

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Speaker 2: as they possibly can. And then on the other hand, Georgia,

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Speaker 2: while they've been hobbled a little bit. I don't mean

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Speaker 2: banged up and injured in some cases, yes, I just

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Speaker 2: mean relative to the normal version of themselves. Georgia's looked

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Speaker 2: a little hobbled, kind of a weird vibe from the

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Speaker 2: team this year, but Georgia is still one of those

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Speaker 2: teams with serious national title springboard potential. So every single

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Speaker 2: year someone hits their stride in late October, even after

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Speaker 2: Halloween early November, so maybe Georgia does this. So that's

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Speaker 2: how we set the stage for this game. This was

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Speaker 2: the script for Texas though, So to get to this point,

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Speaker 2: quinn Ewers is in year three, that's what we hope.

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Speaker 2: We hope we got him and we build him up

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Speaker 2: within the program and year three everything coalesces around him.

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Speaker 2: They're stacked on both lines of scrimmage to the point

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Speaker 2: where they lost those interior guys last year, and you

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Speaker 2: still can't really run on Texas all that much. They

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Speaker 2: lost two tailbacks in the preseason, and guys, they're still

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Speaker 2: running the ball. I think Jesse one of the fortieth

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Speaker 2: in the country, so they're still running the ball fairly

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Speaker 2: well too. They're big, they're physical, they're fast. They don't

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Speaker 2: sacrifice one of those to have the other two. They've

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Speaker 2: got six pass catchers with at least one forty yard

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Speaker 2: catch on the resume this year. They've got seven players

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Speaker 2: with a rush of over twenty yards on the resume

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Speaker 2: this year. So that presents a problem for obvious reasons,

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Speaker 2: and even the best defensive programs, even if they're not

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Speaker 2: putting up the best stats, even the best defensive programs,

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Speaker 2: they got to make a decision on Georgia. So I'm

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Speaker 2: going to talk about it as we get into it.

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Speaker 2: I've been able to count on two things with Georgia

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Speaker 2: for a long time, and I wonder if I can

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Speaker 2: count on them in this game. The first thing, at

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Speaker 2: least in recent Kirby Smart history, the first thing I've

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Speaker 2: come to be able to count on with Georgia is

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Speaker 2: I think they're going to have a dependable ground game.

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Speaker 2: That's what I've trained my mind to think based on

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Speaker 2: watching them last four years thirty sixth nineteenth, twenty first,

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Speaker 2: and here they are ninety second in the country in

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Speaker 2: rush yards per game this year. There's something I have

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Speaker 2: been able to depend on that thus far I haven't

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Speaker 2: really been able to depend on. They don't have one

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Speaker 2: hundred yard rusher in any game this season, and even

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Speaker 2: against Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State is bad against the run.

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Speaker 2: Georgia attempted at twenty four times, didn't crack the one

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Speaker 2: hundred yard mark total total team effort against Mississippi State,

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Speaker 2: and Texas is really good against that anyway. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Vernon Broughton's been really really good for them this year too.

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Speaker 2: So the first thing I've come to expect from Georgia,

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Speaker 2: and that is they can run the ball fairly well.

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Speaker 1: They haven't really done this year.

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Speaker 2: The second thing that I've come to depend on with

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Speaker 2: Georgia is they've been able to limit chunk plays through

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Speaker 2: the year. Historically under Kirby Smart they've been top twenty

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Speaker 2: five yards per play allowed last three years on that front,

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Speaker 2: they are sixty eighth right now. So there are two

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Speaker 2: really dependable facets of what has made Kirby Smart's Georgia

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Speaker 2: great that so far this year have been really, really

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Speaker 2: average by college football standards, not just Georgia standards. Having

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Speaker 2: said that this is a springboard team doesn't guarantee it's

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Speaker 2: gonna happen, but I guarantee you there are facets of

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Speaker 2: this team that are capable of being a whole lot

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Speaker 2: better than they have been, all right, And you've got

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Speaker 2: one of the best coaching staffs in the country in Athens, Georgia,

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Speaker 2: and you got this kind of game circle Like this

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Speaker 2: is the kind of stuff that on one hand you

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Speaker 2: could look at and say, oh, we've been this poor

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Speaker 2: in these areas and now we've got to play Texas.

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Speaker 2: Or you can look at it and say, you know what, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: we've been this poor in some of these areas. But

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Speaker 2: what better moment for it to turn around than Texas.

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Speaker 2: And quite honestly, there are a few teams who have

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Speaker 2: been flawed so far this year that should feel that

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Speaker 2: way in a big moment this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Georgia is just one of them.

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Speaker 2: However, because of that, and because I don't know if

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Speaker 2: I can count on those things, there is zero doubt

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Speaker 2: that if the dust settles on Saturday night and Georgia

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Speaker 2: has won this game. Carson Becks probably had the best

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Speaker 2: game of his season. He's played his a game, whatever

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Speaker 2: that means to you. Because Texas has got the number

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Speaker 2: two pass defense in the country. Okay, on paper stuff

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Speaker 2: right here, Carson Beck's in for a long night if

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Speaker 2: the game's played on this Texas has allowed one passing

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Speaker 2: touchdown this year. Here's the follow up. They have faced

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Speaker 2: four passing offenses in the one hundreds, so they haven't

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Speaker 2: faced a top thirty, top forty, probably top fifty quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the country. You'll face one of the best in

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Speaker 2: the game in Carson Beck. He'll face one of the

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Speaker 2: best defenses. He'll face the best defense he sees all

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Speaker 2: year in Texas Saturday Night. He's just got to have

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Speaker 2: the game of his season, and he's got to play

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Speaker 2: at an a level, not turn the ball over obviously,

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Speaker 2: be big on third down. Yards per attempt needs to

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Speaker 2: be high. So all that's got to happen, and it

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Speaker 2: can happen. Carson Beck can do that these games every

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Speaker 2: single season, you'll see something happen. You'll see a matchup happen.

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Speaker 2: Where elsewhere you thought the opposition had edges mild to

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Speaker 2: moderate edges, here here, here, and here.

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Speaker 1: But what happened.

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Speaker 2: What happened is that quarterback went off and he covered

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Speaker 2: up and he masked a lot of it because this

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Speaker 2: is football and that position's really valuable. So Carson Beck

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Speaker 2: has to do that. And number two, another thing that

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Speaker 2: is plagued Georgia so far. I know it sounds really

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Speaker 2: Georgia centric here, but these are the keys. Texas is set.

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Speaker 2: I don't have as many questions about Texas. I got

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Speaker 2: questions about Georgia, namely, why can't you guys score early?

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Speaker 2: What is it about a fast start that Georgia is

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Speaker 2: so allergic to? They can flip the script totally if

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Speaker 2: they just start fast. It would be so weird, but

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Speaker 2: also a welcome change for Georgia fans to turn on

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Speaker 2: this game and oh we're up seven to nothing, Oh

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Speaker 2: we're up ten to three.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't happened. It's wild.

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Speaker 2: Producer Jesse and I pulled up the game logs for

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Speaker 2: Georgia today and just looking at what they've averaged in

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Speaker 2: first quarters versus second, third, and fourth quarters, it's wild.

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Speaker 2: So the other thing to think about here is quinn Ewers.

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Speaker 2: The other thing to think about is the Texas offense.

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Speaker 2: The thing that I think is probably one of the

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Speaker 2: most fun matchups of this season is just watching Steve

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Speaker 2: sarkisian A against Schumann and Kirby Smart because those are

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Speaker 2: two sides of a ball with five star coaching and

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Speaker 2: play calling and they go up against each other. You

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Speaker 2: don't get that very often, so I mean, if you

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Speaker 2: do get it, it's normally late in the postseason. We

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Speaker 2: happened to get it here in what week eight. Remember

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Speaker 2: last year Texas was good. Texas made the playoff. Last

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Speaker 2: year they got in the semi final and they played Washington,

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Speaker 2: and Washington did something to them that Georgia has to

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Speaker 2: do it. So the reason I mentioned a fast start,

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Speaker 2: Washington put them in a position where they did feel pressure.

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Speaker 1: They had to keep up.

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Speaker 2: Pennix and Washington kept delivering blows through the air and

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Speaker 2: Texas had to keep up. And it's not that they

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Speaker 2: were incapable of it, although viewers had a less than

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Speaker 2: desirable game accuracy rise that night, but that is born

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Speaker 2: through the pressure of having to keep up. Can Georgia

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Speaker 2: put them in that kind of position offensively? Can Georgia

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Speaker 2: do that? And can they do it? Especially if the

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Speaker 2: ground game's not there, because you saw against Alabama when

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Speaker 2: Georgia had to play catch up they were able to

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Speaker 2: do it. But also in that game they end up

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Speaker 2: minus three turnovers, minus two or minus three turnovers, and

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Speaker 2: so obviously you can't afford that here. So that's one

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Speaker 2: thing to watch, and that's the great unknown, the whole

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Speaker 2: turnover variable always is. But there's another thing too. How

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Speaker 2: can I put this metaphorically? So against Texas, you've got

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Speaker 2: what I mean, you've got six pass catchers with at

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Speaker 2: least one catch of forty plus yards. You got seven guys,

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Speaker 2: like I said, who have had at least one twenty

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Speaker 2: yard rush. So it's basically like looking at a dam

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Speaker 2: with thirteen holes in it and you try and plug

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Speaker 2: it with ten fingers. That doesn't work. What you can do, though,

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Speaker 2: what Georgia can do against Texas is try and divert

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Speaker 2: the water.

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Speaker 1: Period.

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Speaker 2: You know, you get to the quarterback or you affect

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Speaker 2: the quarterback, and all these weapons don't really matter nearly

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Speaker 2: as much. So the pressure rate has to get ramped up.

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Speaker 2: Getting to the quarterback has to get ramped up. Georgia

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Speaker 2: does not sack the quarterback at the very least, you

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Speaker 2: got to affect him. You got to get physical with

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Speaker 2: these guys in their routes. But also they're good at that,

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Speaker 2: and they're good at making contested catches. And you've got

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Speaker 2: some youth in your secondary that Alabama was able to

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Speaker 2: take advantage of.

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Speaker 1: You just gotta fight balls in the air. You just

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Speaker 1: gotta fight.

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Speaker 2: Can they find a way to mess with quinn Ewers

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Speaker 2: is the bigger question to me. I don't think anyone's

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Speaker 2: going to really holistically match up with Texas's skill guys.

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Speaker 2: I think that also, there's another thing in play here.

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Speaker 2: It's going to sound disrespectful. That's why I brought Kirby

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Speaker 2: Smart along on the show tonight, so I'll let him

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Speaker 2: say it instead of me.

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Speaker 1: Colin.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna have you tee up the Kirby Smart sound

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Speaker 2: and then I'll tell you what I have to say.

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Speaker 3: On the other side, they're the complete package on defense.

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Speaker 3: They're really consistent, like they's not like they don't give

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Speaker 3: up explosives. They're really good in the red area. They

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Speaker 3: hard to run the ball on. I mean the consistency

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Speaker 3: you watch them play with. It reminds me of you know,

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Speaker 3: some of our better teams here, our best teams here.

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Speaker 3: I'm like, man, they're good on d they're good on oh,

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Speaker 3: they're good on special teams.

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Speaker 1: And they're playing at a high level. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I think Texas is more Georgia than Georgia is this year.

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Speaker 2: The Georgia teams in the past few years, the way

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Speaker 2: they looked. Kirby's telling you right there, Texas flat out

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Speaker 2: looks like we've looked in our best years. And he's

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Speaker 2: talking about defense. He's not even talking about offense. Colin,

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Speaker 2: Let's take a look at what the model thinks. The

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Speaker 2: FanDuel number is Texas minus three and a half. Model

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Speaker 2: thinks it should be higher than that. Models got Texas

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Speaker 2: minus five. I think Texas is going to win this game.

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Speaker 2: I think Texas will cover in the game. I think

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Speaker 2: Texas is the best team in the country right now.

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Speaker 2: Now the model may disagree with me a little bit.

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Speaker 2: We'll talk about the JP pole later, but I think

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Speaker 2: you're looking at the best team in the country here.

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Speaker 2: I respect the fighting spirit of this Georgia program. There's

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Speaker 2: no shock here if they end up winning the game.

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Speaker 2: But I think there are too many small to moderate

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Speaker 2: edges that Texas holds. Not to mention home field here

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Speaker 2: as well. They did not get banged up, they didn't

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Speaker 2: get pushed to the wire against Oklahoma last week, and

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Speaker 2: so Georgie's back kind of against the wall more so

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Speaker 2: than Texas.

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Speaker 1: I just I don't think all that stuff matters in

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Speaker 1: this one.

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Speaker 2: And also you can look at it as people doubting you.

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Speaker 2: I guarantee you most of the country will pick Texas

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Speaker 2: in this game, just like to pick Bama, but it

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Speaker 2: didn't matter. You still got to go win the game.

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Speaker 2: Like what if everyone picks the favorite and they're just right.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna pick Texas here. I assume the rest of

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Speaker 2: the country will as well. Someone out there will pick

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Speaker 2: Georgia and cross their fingers they're lucky and right. But

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Texas un They'll proven otherwise. I think that's

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Speaker 2: the best team in the country, and if they have

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Speaker 2: home field along with that, I'm taking them against anyone.

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Speaker 2: Georgia included. Academy Sports and Outdoors is a big deal

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Speaker 2: in Texas. It's a big deal in the state of Georgia.

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Speaker 2: I encourage you guys, if you're of the tailgating variety,

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Speaker 2: check out our friends at Academy Sports and Outdoors. If

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Speaker 2: you're of the hunting variety. If you just love to chew,

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Speaker 2: big league chew, you know, any and all of the above,

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00:14:56,640 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 2: or you just need garden variety clothing, you know around

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Speaker 2: the house. You could wear this stuff in the office,

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Speaker 2: especially if you work at the right kind of place.

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Speaker 2: Academy Sports and Outdoors has you covered. They present this

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Speaker 2: show to you free of charge. They are are presenting

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Speaker 2: sponsor on this show. We appreciate them so much. And

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Speaker 2: if you have Internet, but you don't have an Academy

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Speaker 2: in your hometown, you're in luck because with internet comes

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Speaker 2: the ability to type in I don't even think you

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Speaker 2: need to do the WWW's, just do Academy dot com

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Speaker 2: and that's it your set.

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Speaker 1: Look, Jesse, put a.

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Speaker 2: Poll over here, who wins Saturday Texas versus Georgia. Jesse,

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Speaker 2: keep me updated on this pole. It has nothing to

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Speaker 2: do with Academy. Keep me updated on this I'll pull

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Speaker 2: it up over here. We'll see how that goes. Maybe

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Speaker 2: we should run poles on every game so that when

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Speaker 2: I'm wrong, I feel a little bit of company in

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Speaker 2: my misery. Anyway, Academy Sports and Outdoors, we are always

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Speaker 2: happy to have them in the house with us and

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Speaker 2: they're in the house every single time.

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Speaker 1: Let's continue. We have gotten more big games to talk about.

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Speaker 2: I think I should sit from the challice Colin, cause, frankly,

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Speaker 2: I think that this has brought a lot of luck.

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Speaker 2: Ramannulu Express had a winning week last week, and it's

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Speaker 2: no small coincidence I brought the Chalice of supremacy back

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Speaker 2: as a as a drinking receptacle. All right, that's it,

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Speaker 2: that's all it's.

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Speaker 1: Supposed to happen there.

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Speaker 2: Alabama is at Tennessee Saturday, three point thirty Eastern time,

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Speaker 2: kickoff on ABC. It is not the first, not the second,

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Speaker 2: but the third Saturday in October. This game is so intense.

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Speaker 2: Last time we were in that building, Director Colin was

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Speaker 2: actually with me. Last time we were in that building,

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Speaker 2: the goalpost ended up in the river. It was an

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Speaker 2: outdoor venue, but people still got smoke inhlation on the field.

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Speaker 2: A small word of wisdom to Kaylin Debor down there,

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Speaker 2: who has been under fire for everything from his defensive

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Speaker 2: hires to his dress on game days. I know they

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Speaker 2: asked him about the cigar. My advice to him, I

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Speaker 2: don't care if he smokes. I don't smoke either, But

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Speaker 2: if I'm the head coach at Alabama. I'm gonna do

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Speaker 2: what Sabin did. At least if I win this game,

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Speaker 2: I'll at least chew on a cigar. The photo op

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Speaker 2: of the winning coach in this game with the cigar

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Speaker 2: in the mouth is worth like one to two years

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Speaker 2: extra on the tail end of your career. I promise you.

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Speaker 2: That's free advice. I promise you I'm right on this.

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Speaker 2: Why is Alabama not running the ball better with their tailbacks?

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Speaker 2: You will never convince me that shouldn't be a strength

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Speaker 2: of this team. Why is Tennessee sitting in a position

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Speaker 2: where Josh Heipel is your head coach? I got Nicole Amaliava,

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Speaker 2: who looks like a weapon amongst weapons at quarterback to

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Speaker 2: the eyes, and you've been shut out two first halves

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Speaker 2: in a row. These are the wise that I take

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Speaker 2: into this game. Now, I'm gonna say something here. It's

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Speaker 2: gonna sound crazy, especially if you've watched Tennessee the last.

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Speaker 1: Couple of weeks.

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Speaker 2: I think that if you're hating on Tennessee's offense and

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Speaker 2: you're just selling the potential of this season down the river,

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Speaker 2: you're doing it at your own peril. There's a big difference.

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Speaker 2: I think friend of the program, acquaintance of the program,

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Speaker 2: Cole Kublick did a really good job the other night.

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Speaker 2: See they put that guy on National and you turn

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Speaker 2: him loose long enough, he's gonna make some good points.

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Speaker 2: And he went into great detail. I encourage you guys

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Speaker 2: to go watch this. He went into great detail talking

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Speaker 2: about how different it is for a scheme to be

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Speaker 2: flawed versus execution to be flawed. And he came with

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Speaker 2: receipts and he pointed out several examples, you know, fumbling

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Speaker 2: the ball, screwing up the mesh, point overthrowing receivers, dropped balls.

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Speaker 2: These are not scheme problems. These are execution problems. So

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Speaker 2: when you go back and you watch Tennessee's offense through

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Speaker 2: that lens and then you try and fast forward to

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Speaker 2: the Bama game, what it makes me think is it

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Speaker 2: makes me think there could be a click moment for

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Speaker 2: this offense coming. And if you've watched Bama's defense over

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Speaker 2: the last few weeks, what better unit to get right

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Speaker 2: against than that Alabama defense. Bama's rundy is not great.

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Speaker 2: I've got Dylan Sampson Junior. If I'm Tennessee over ninety

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Speaker 2: yards every game so far this year. Overthrows and fumbles

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Speaker 2: and bounces a ball. Those are all part of my

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Speaker 2: past so far this year, but doesn't always have to

401
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Speaker 2: be part of my future. If I just small fractions

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Speaker 2: of inches correct these things, who knows, I may go

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Speaker 2: from having zero on the board at halftime to having

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Speaker 2: twenty three on the board at halftime, and then it's

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Speaker 2: game on. Because once you got that juice back, once

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Speaker 2: you got that energy back, you know what this game

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Speaker 2: is like. All of us have watched this game before.

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Speaker 2: We know what it's like. Alabama's defense is one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twentieth in the country and plays run against.

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Speaker 1: They live on the field.

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Speaker 2: Bama's defense just lives on the field, first off, because

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Speaker 2: they can't get off the field on third nine. And

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Speaker 2: secondly because if Bama's offense is not scoring, they're going

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Speaker 2: three and out.

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Speaker 1: Not a good combination.

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Speaker 2: So one thing I'll be watching is what I call

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Speaker 2: edw new acronym on the show tonight, and that just

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Speaker 2: means extended drive watch. And if we're watching Tennessee in

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Speaker 2: the first half, they don't have to be racking up

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Speaker 2: points per se. But if they're going on these ten,

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Speaker 2: twelve thirteen play drives. Don't even care if it ends

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Speaker 2: in field goals. It matters for the second half of

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Speaker 2: this game now. Jalen Milroe needs a step up game here.

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Speaker 2: Jalen Milroe, I don't even know what the heismanoads right

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Speaker 2: now are. If he's in them, he needs to justify it.

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Speaker 2: I assume he's still in them. He needs to justify it.

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Speaker 2: He has some shaky decision making last week against South Carolina,

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Speaker 2: probably as weird as I've seen him.

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Speaker 1: Look all year.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna sit here and pretend to tell you

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Speaker 2: I know what the play calls were. I'm not telling

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Speaker 2: you any of that.

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Speaker 1: I was.

434
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 2: I mean, where was. I was in Oregon. I was

435
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,359
Speaker 2: holding a mic in my hand. I was on the

436
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 2: air with, among other folks, Damian Harris, who had a

437
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 2: vested emotional interest, and we're live on air. He's in Florida,

438
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 2: I'm in Oregon and we're watching this game unfold, and

439
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: you're like, man, Milroe looks uncomfortable. Man, what is South

440
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 2: Carolina doing to him? So that can't be the case

441
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,359
Speaker 2: this week, and there are plays to be made against

442
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,200
Speaker 2: this Tennessee secondary. I think it's been there all year.

443
00:20:51,720 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 2: It's just that they haven't faced a litany of quarterbacks

444
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 2: that are really, really good at generating explosive plays.

445
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,400
Speaker 1: This will be the best one they faced all year.

446
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 2: Milroe's got to hit him, and ideally he would hit

447
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: those because Alabama has run the ball half decently with

448
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: Justiceason jam Miller along with Jaln Milroe using his legs.

449
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 2: And that leads me to my second question, what do

450
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: I get from Jalen Milroe's legs here?

451
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 1: Because Tennessee in.

452
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,199
Speaker 2: This game last year bottled him up very well. He

453
00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 2: had one good run, Jesse, what do we see like

454
00:21:23,000 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: one fifteen yard run when we rewatched this game? And

455
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 2: other than that, it was not off to the races

456
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 2: for Jaylen Milroe in this game last year. So we

457
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,760
Speaker 2: have what we call padlock stats on the show, and

458
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 2: that is the kind of stat where if I tell

459
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 2: you a stat on Friday, you don't even need to

460
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: watch the game.

461
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: You know how it's going to go.

462
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 2: And I have a sneaking suspicion that the padlock stat

463
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 2: for this one will just be explosive plays because even

464
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 2: though Tennessee's been shut out in the first half the

465
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 2: past couple of weeks. The explosive play potential is there,

466
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: especially against this Alabama defense right now, the explosive play

467
00:21:56,600 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: potential is there. Certainly the explosive play potential for Alibe

468
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 2: Obama is there. I'd be surprised if Bama didn't hit

469
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 2: a few explosives against Tennessee.

470
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 1: How many do they hit tackling.

471
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 2: Also, when you think about explosive plays in the way

472
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 2: Tennessee can generate them, I know the mind goes to

473
00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 2: Nico just airing it out over the top.

474
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:15,439
Speaker 1: It doesn't have to be that.

475
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 2: It doesn't even have to be Dylan Samson ripping one

476
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: all for sixty yards between the tackles and he gets

477
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,880
Speaker 2: loose in the secondary linebacker misses as they've been known

478
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 2: to do lately.

479
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 1: Doesn't have to be that either.

480
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: What it could be is you just hit one of

481
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 2: these receivers out on the perimeter and a two yard

482
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 2: catch turns into a sixty five yard game because they

483
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 2: don't tackle well like That could also be the case.

484
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 2: You just however you generate them, you got to get

485
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,120
Speaker 2: them if you're Tennessee and if you're Alabama. Jeremy Bernard

486
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:45,359
Speaker 2: just needs to be more of what he's been Ryan

487
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 2: Williams sort of kind of quiet last week. Needs to

488
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 2: have one of those Georgia games here. Alabama Situa HM.

489
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 2: Their situational awareness has lacked I think this year.

490
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,199
Speaker 1: I think that's a fair thing to say. They've been

491
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 1: very penalized.

492
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 2: They're one hundred and nineteenth in the country in penalties

493
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 2: now Tennessee's eighty eight. So there's not really one big

494
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:12,240
Speaker 2: edge in that category here or there. They did Tennessee

495
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: being they they did lose Keenan Peely. That is a

496
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 2: defensive captain right there in the middle. For him, he

497
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 2: was the green dot for him, he was the play caller.

498
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 2: It is a big loss. It is a very very

499
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: big loss, and honestly it played into how I think

500
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 2: this game is going to go. By the way, we

501
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: had a lot of folks watching both live and watching

502
00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 2: the replay. To me a favor show's free. We always

503
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 2: want to keep it free. Just make sure you subscribe

504
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,199
Speaker 2: to the channel, and that's it. Does it cost you

505
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,239
Speaker 2: a thing, no strings attached, no email list you get

506
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 2: signed up to. It just helps us. Colin, let's take

507
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel right now

508
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: has Alabama favored in Kneeland Alabama minus two and a half.

509
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,400
Speaker 2: The model looks at that and says, uh uh, wrong,

510
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 2: team's favored. Yes, the model just outright thinks Tennessee should

511
00:23:56,160 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 2: be favored by one and a half. Leaned heavily Tennessee

512
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 2: in this game, then I lean slightly Tennessee. Don't like

513
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 2: Pelly being out at all. Don't feel ultra confident on

514
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: either side. But if I think this is an explosive

515
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 2: play game, which I think it will be, I think

516
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: that'll be the padlock stat I trust Alabama a lot

517
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 2: more generating those right now than I do Tennessee. With

518
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 2: the caveat that, I also think there is a click

519
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: moment coming for Tennessee's offense this season, at some point

520
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: where they all of a sudden generate them in bunches.

521
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:30,919
Speaker 2: I am going to roll the dice and say that

522
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 2: doesn't happen this week to the degree that it would

523
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: take them to win the game. Look at my handshake.

524
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 2: It's for a fact. Look I can hold my hands still.

525
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: But still I am nervous about this pick. But I

526
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: am slightly rolling with Alabama to win. And since they're

527
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 2: favorite by two and a half, I guess I'll take

528
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 2: them to cover as well. We will be at this

529
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 2: game regardless, we will be at this game. The whole

530
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: New Saturday Tour is not flying but just driving to Knoxville.

531
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,960
Speaker 2: What a welcome change after we have nearly circumnavigated the

532
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 2: globe recently Alabama at Tennessee fueled by quick trip. And

533
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 2: I know good and well there is a quick trip

534
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: that is very opportunistically placed on a certain exit I

535
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 2: like to stop on. So I expect some quick trip

536
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 2: check ins from us on our way to and perhaps

537
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:24,120
Speaker 2: even from this game. It's been really fun season so far.

538
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:25,880
Speaker 2: So what have we done. We have traveled all over

539
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: the place. We will continue to travel all over the place.

540
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 2: We have given away a ton of free gas. We

541
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 2: have I mean, we've even got a doc right here

542
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:36,040
Speaker 2: in the show description. We've got a QR code on

543
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 2: the screen. You don't have to do this part. I

544
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 2: just asked them to insert this as an added perk

545
00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 2: for you guys. So you download their app, you go

546
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,919
Speaker 2: put your name in this dock. It's not your name,

547
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 2: it's your email address. And that gets our viewers just exclusively.

548
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: Our people added free stuff through the app that no

549
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 2: one else has access to now. Like I said, there's

550
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,080
Speaker 2: no requirement there. You don't have to do it. You

551
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 2: don't like giving out your email address. I get it

552
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: because I don't like doing it either. It is safe

553
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 2: with Quick Trip like I made them. I made them

554
00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 2: pinky swear that it's safe with them. That's just if

555
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 2: you want added free stuff. And we have come to

556
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 2: find out a few things about our audience. You're very loyal,

557
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 2: number one. Number two, you really tend to like free stuff.

558
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,480
Speaker 2: And that's why we're not so different, you and I.

559
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 2: We're not so different at all. I wear the same

560
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,120
Speaker 2: shirt every show, and I'm not even sure I paid

561
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 2: for these shirts. Jesse and Colin, I'm not even sure

562
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: I did. So we really appreciate it. All right, let's

563
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 2: move on some more big games. I've also got a

564
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 2: JP poll that I just gotta be real with you.

565
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 2: It's going to cost me a few friends, maybe some

566
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 2: friends that I've made recently, but I will stand by

567
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 2: the model on ninety five percent of these ratings, not

568
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 2: rankings ratings. But in the meantime, Miami plays Louisville this Saturday.

569
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: It's a high noon Eastern time kickoff on ABC. This

570
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,560
Speaker 2: game I would very much encourage you to circle. We

571
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: spotlighted this one in the preseason because it's a big

572
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 2: dynamics advantage from Miami. So Miami's off a bye. We

573
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 2: have these games this time of year where one team's

574
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 2: off a bye, and that's Miami.

575
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: Louisville fifth straight game.

576
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 2: And their last four games have really come down to

577
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 2: the wire, including the last three being one possession games,

578
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 2: and so Louisville no time to rest, kind of spent.

579
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 2: They even got pushed to the wire against Virginia last

580
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 2: week and Miami sitting down there resting after two narrow

581
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 2: wins themselves, and now they get to go on the road,

582
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: and you know the talking points. You just want to

583
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,239
Speaker 2: get to the bye week and then you clean up

584
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,960
Speaker 2: everything in the bye week, whatever cleanup means in football.

585
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 2: Then you go out on the road and all will

586
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: be well. Right, Well, you're favored by four and a half.

587
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 2: So let's see Louisville's defense. This is the not good part.

588
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 2: They've allowed three of the last four Power four quarterbacks

589
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: they faced to throw for two to seventy five or more.

590
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 2: The only one who didn't was Riley Leonard, and he

591
00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 2: doesn't throw at three hundred against anybody. So I mean

592
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: everybody capable of throwing for two seventy five or more

593
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 2: has done it against Louisville. Cam Ward hasn't had a

594
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: game where he's been under three hundred all season. So

595
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 2: cam Ward shockingly will get his in this game. Louisville's

596
00:28:14,080 --> 00:28:17,479
Speaker 2: defense is forty second versus the run. They're seventieth against

597
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 2: the past. Miami gets thirty five or more in this game.

598
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: I am banking on that, and if they don't, hat

599
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 2: tip Louisville. But your defense has let me down all year,

600
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 2: so I'm not gonna start counting on it against maybe

601
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 2: the best quarterback in the country. Gunslinger makes some questionable decisions,

602
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: but he bails me out every time by overcoming those

603
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 2: with plays like you're watching right now. So I think

604
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 2: Miami gets thirty five in this game and maybe more.

605
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: I'm just banking on thirty five. So how do you

606
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 2: find them? How does Louisville find an answer there? Well,

607
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 2: Tyler Shuck is still healthy. That means Tyler Shuck. I'm

608
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: not calling him cam Ward. I'm just saying he can

609
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 2: trade shots now. As long as he's healthy. He's been

610
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 2: able to do that. His whole career, and Miami can

611
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: be gashed by explosive plays. They've had it happen all year.

612
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech had six plays of twenty plus yards against Miami.

613
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 2: Cal had seven plays of twenty plus yards and four

614
00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 2: of fifty plus yards against Miami. So there's one world,

615
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 2: fairytale world that you could live in where you just

616
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: think that Miami went into the By, watched some film,

617
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: lifted some weights, and had a few talks and everything's

618
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: right with the world. Defensively. Now, this is the real world.

619
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 2: That is not how football happens. I mean, you could

620
00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: tighten some things up, and there are statistical anomalies every year.

621
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,480
Speaker 2: But I gotta believe there will be some plays, chunk

622
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: plays to be made against Miami coming out of the By.

623
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: Though, what does it mean? Really?

624
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 2: I actually wrote that on the piece of paper. Coming

625
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: out of the Bye means ellipses dot dot dot question mark.

626
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 1: Here's the deal of Miami.

627
00:29:54,800 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 2: Miami is thought to be a team that has fringe

628
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: national title aspirations and fringe national title potential. I don't know,

629
00:30:02,720 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 2: Colin or Jesse, do we have odds in there for anything?

630
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 2: Do we have like a graphic I didn't ask for it,

631
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 2: so we may not have one. But Louisville is not

632
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: in that conversation. Really, Miami is a team if you

633
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: go to FanDuel right now, that's in the conversation for

634
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: this stuff. Like cam Ward's in the conversation for Heisman,

635
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 2: Miami's in the conversation for that stuff.

636
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: Is that real or not?

637
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: Because if it's real, they'll come out of the by

638
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 2: and they'll go up to Louisville and they'll take care

639
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 2: of business. Because that's what a team with that kind

640
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 2: of potential would do. Now, if you're not that, that's okay,

641
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 2: there's a next tier where you're just a good, solid

642
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: ACC title contender but maybe nothing more. That kind of

643
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 2: team would come out of the buy and they'd go struggle.

644
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 2: They may even win against Louisville, but they go struggle.

645
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 2: The odds to win the ACC championship right now, Clemson

646
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: is favored to win this conference. That's a pretty recent development.

647
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 2: By the way, it was Miami for a while. So

648
00:30:56,520 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: Clemson's favored to win the thing. Miami is right there.

649
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 2: They nearly identical odds, and then it's SMU and Pitt

650
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: and Louisville have the same odds. So Colin, you can

651
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: go ahead to actually and throw up what the model thinks,

652
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: because the FanDuel number on this game screams competitive game.

653
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: It's Miami minus four and a half. The model agrees.

654
00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 2: I mean, the model looks at it and says that

655
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 2: explosive play rate giving up defensively, it's hard pressed to

656
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 2: allow you to pull away from teams. In fact, Miami's

657
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: found themselves trying to fight to get back in the

658
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 2: last two games they played against.

659
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: Honestly inferior competition.

660
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 2: So I just want to know as we look at

661
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 2: what the model thinks, there is Miami's national title muscle

662
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: reel or not. If it is your flex in this game,

663
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: I'm gonna roll the dice on Miami. I think it

664
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 2: is real. And they're not Texas. You know they're They're

665
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 2: not Ohio State or Oregon. I don't think of them

666
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 2: that way right now. I could change my mind down

667
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 2: the road. I don't think of them like that right now,

668
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,920
Speaker 2: but I think of them as a team that should

669
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 2: be in that kind of converse on the fringes at least.

670
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: And if I'm right about that, they will beat Louisville

671
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: by more than.

672
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: Four and a half.

673
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take the chance that that is true.

674
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take the chance that Miami goes up there

675
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: out of a bye and they're good enough, and they

676
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: win it and they cover, and then we can we

677
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 2: can have a separate conversation about what's possible for them

678
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: down the road. Oh, I wrote my handle here. I

679
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,600
Speaker 2: had no idea why, so I did want to thank

680
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 2: you guys. Now that we're a little bit into the

681
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 2: show here, I think we're gonna hit three hundred thousand

682
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 2: subs on the YouTube channel next week, and that's what

683
00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: we're trending towards. Strangely, I've got to do a show

684
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: from New York City next week. Actually, we're doing shows

685
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 2: from New York City the next two weeks, which is

686
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: about the most anti me sentence ever uttered. But that's

687
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 2: happening and we look forward to it because we love

688
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 2: our crew up there. That has nothing to do with

689
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 2: our subscriber count. I'm just telling you. Last time we

690
00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 2: were in LA when we hit two hundred thousand subs,

691
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 2: maybe we'll be in New York in the moment we

692
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: hit three hundred thousand subs. But you guys, for that

693
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: But the other thing is the Instagram channel. The Instagram

694
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: page's got a lot of traction that is well worth

695
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 2: your time if you don't follow me over there at

696
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 2: Late Kick Josh. There is a metric ton of stuff

697
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: that I put over there, including on Game Day, behind

698
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 2: the scenes stuff and the Instagram story that you will

699
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 2: never see on the show because we don't have time

700
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 2: to show you all that. And so you also get

701
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 2: Friday Night lines over there exclusively. That is live every

702
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: Friday night from a nondescript hotel room on the road,

703
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:31,400
Speaker 2: and it is the most like raw, in depth, gambling

704
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 2: centric talk that we do. I don't infuse that in

705
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 2: the show because a lot of you don't bet and

706
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: you don't care about it that granularly, but some of

707
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: you do. So I do that on Instagram live on

708
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 2: Friday nights at Late Kick Josh. Make sure you're following there.

709
00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 2: This next five to ten minutes of this show is

710
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 2: going to be controversial. Some of it shouldn't be, but

711
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: it will be because we all know the state of

712
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 2: the state of affairs in public discourse these days. So

713
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 2: I am going to tell you, Colin, here's a good

714
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,880
Speaker 2: endpoint for you. I've got the JP Poll Week eight

715
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,399
Speaker 2: edition right here. And we all know that these are

716
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,799
Speaker 2: not rankings. These are power ratings. And we all know

717
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 2: that it doesn't matter that I tell you that, because

718
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 2: the casuals will come for me, and they always come

719
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: for me regardless. But this week, based on what I'm

720
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 2: about to show you, this stuff, if you don't understand

721
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: how a power rating works, will make no sense. And

722
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 2: I'm going to show you why in very short order.

723
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 2: So I mean, I am going to count on you

724
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 2: guys who understand how this thing works this week more

725
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 2: than ever because I cannot fight this battle on my own.

726
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: And we got a battle coming. You can hear the

727
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: drum beat in the distance. We got a battle coming, Colin.

728
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: Show them one through five. Here we go, neutral field favorability.

729
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: Who would be favored against two?

730
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: This week?

731
00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 2: Ohio State is still the number one team in the country.

732
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 2: And I'm going to tell you I disagree with the

733
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,440
Speaker 2: model slightly here, but not in.

734
00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,160
Speaker 1: The way you think. The only thing I would change

735
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: is I'd have Texas above Ohio State. That's it.

736
00:34:59,320 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 2: Ohio State still above Oregon. It goes for the record.

737
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 2: For you listening on podcast, it goes Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Clemson.

738
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 2: I know what you're looking at. You're looking at the

739
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: fact that Ohio State just lost to Oregon and there's

740
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 2: still a couple of spots ahead of them. I'm gonna

741
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: tell you, not only is this not a hot take,

742
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: it's not even controversial. I hit FanDuel up earlier today.

743
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 2: I said, guys, I know this is going to ruffle

744
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,759
Speaker 2: a lot of feathers. Do me a favor. Send me

745
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: what you would make this line on a neutral field.

746
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 2: In other words, if this game were played in the

747
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: Big Ten Championship today, what would the line be Ohio

748
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: State's two and a half point favorite against Oregon neutral

749
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:39,800
Speaker 2: field today. So there's nothing controversial about this. And yet,

750
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 2: and yet, watch what happens when I tweet this out

751
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: later tonight. Clemson is number five in the JP pole,

752
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 2: by the way, and there will be detachment here. Colin,

753
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,240
Speaker 2: you can roll six through ten right quick, because Miami's

754
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:56,360
Speaker 2: number six. Now, I can tell you I'm pretty confident

755
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: talking to the folks at FanDuel if Miami Clemson happened today,

756
00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: my Miami would be a slight favorite. So the model

757
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: is a little detached, very slightly but a little detached

758
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 2: from what FanDuel would have on that front. So I

759
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: am telling you I got Clemson ahead of Miami because

760
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 2: the model disagrees with the odds makers on that front.

761
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:15,280
Speaker 1: Ole Miss is still high.

762
00:36:15,560 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 2: Ole Miss is at seven, and that just simply stems

763
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,319
Speaker 2: from the fact that I don't really care what your

764
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:23,720
Speaker 2: record is. I care what you'd be on a neutral

765
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: field tomorrow, and ole Miss, I mean Iowa State's undefeated.

766
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: Like I promise you ten out of ten times Ole

767
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 2: Miss would be favored against Iowa State, as much as

768
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: I may hate that they'd be favored against Iowa State

769
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: as they played tomorrow. Bama is at number eight. They

770
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 2: have dropped nearly seven points on their power rating since

771
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: the Georgia game, so Bama's not playing very well right now. However,

772
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: the talent profile, which constitutes a power rating to a

773
00:36:50,640 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 2: large degree of this team is such that there's still

774
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: number eight. Will that be a low water mark of

775
00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 2: the year for Alabama or is their floor even lower

776
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 2: than eight? We'll see Penn State's nine. I told you

777
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: we were going to be a little detached from the

778
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 2: ap pole there, you know, Penn State, Jesse, what are

779
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,640
Speaker 2: they three right now in the ap SO. Penn State's

780
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 2: three in the Apeople, They're nine in the JP poll.

781
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 2: The gap just for the record between three and nine

782
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: in the JP poll would be.

783
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 1: Four points.

784
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:26,719
Speaker 2: So there is a little disagreement from an AP voter

785
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 2: versus what the power rating system has here. Notre Dames

786
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,839
Speaker 2: at number ten, Notre Dame's overrated. To me, what are

787
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 2: they rated? Well, they're rated number ten. Notre Dame has

788
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 2: incurred a lot of injury. Now, as you guys know,

789
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:39,919
Speaker 2: if you follow this sort of thing and you follow

790
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: predictive modeling and whatnot, outside of quarterback, there are no

791
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 2: players that are worth a whole lot of points individually.

792
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,479
Speaker 2: I've sort of disagreed with that philosophy case to case

793
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: over the years, but I understand it in totality it

794
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 2: does make sense. However, speaking of the word totality, I

795
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 2: mean Morrison is now out as well for the season

796
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: for Notre Dame, and so they have incurred several injuries

797
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:07,719
Speaker 2: that individually would not be worth more than a point

798
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 2: in a quarter and that's at the very most. But

799
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 2: in totality, I think they're worth a lot more than that,

800
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 2: and Notre Dame is sitting at number ten. I wouldn't

801
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:17,280
Speaker 2: have them that high, So that's a model disagreement between

802
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 2: me and the computer. Here, Tennessee's at number eleven. Then

803
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,239
Speaker 2: there's a little bit of drop off, so there are

804
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 2: like two and three quarters to three points drop between

805
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 2: where Tennessee is and then where LSU is, And I'm

806
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: just going to read them here Tennessee eleven, LSU twelve

807
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,200
Speaker 2: A and M thirteen, Iowa State fourteen.

808
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:37,880
Speaker 1: USC's fifteen.

809
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 2: The gap between number twelve and number twenty five is

810
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: five and a half points.

811
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: So there's a.

812
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:51,760
Speaker 2: Lot of accordion condensing here in this twelve to twenty

813
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: five range to where you could kind of jumble this

814
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 2: up and just throw it out there, and in a

815
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 2: lot of ways it would make sense. USC is still

816
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: at fifteen. A lot of people, I assume, will have

817
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: a problem with that. Why would they drop We had

818
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: them twelfth last week, their fifteenth. Their raw power rating

819
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 2: dropped a couple of points.

820
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: Actually, why would it drop a whole lot?

821
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 2: Though they were a three point dog, I think they

822
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: were a little over a field goal dog at home

823
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 2: against a team rated higher than them. They lost in overtime.

824
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 2: I think you got exactly what you should get in

825
00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 2: that matchup. So the Model's not going to drop a

826
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 2: team for doing what it thinks they should do in

827
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 2: a game. Kansas State is number sixteen, Iowa is number seventeen.

828
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 2: They are three points above what their preseason rating was,

829
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 2: and we've been betting Iowa. I think we're four and

830
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,040
Speaker 2: oh betting Iowa games this year. Maybe we'll hit them

831
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: again this week, who knows. I don't know that I've

832
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 2: ever said we're just gonna ride to Iowa because they're

833
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,479
Speaker 2: a money making machine recently, but they kind of are.

834
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 1: Indiana's eighteen.

835
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 2: Wisconsin has suddenly reappeared in the jpeepole and they're nineteen.

836
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 2: They're back to their original preseason rate. So they lost

837
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: the quarterback against Alabama, they got blown out by Alabama,

838
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 2: and they've sort of righted the ship, and the Model's

839
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 2: got some supreme Luke Fickle respect right now. It's got

840
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 2: Wisconsin nineteen and SMU twenty, and then we get into

841
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:19,319
Speaker 2: just the total abyss here of suspiciousness. Let me put

842
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: it that way. Louisville's twenty one, Arkansas is number twenty two.

843
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 2: You toss twenty three without camerising Florida's twenty four boise

844
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 2: Is twenty five, and I just read five teams in

845
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 2: a row. But I know my audience. I know you guys.

846
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 2: A lot of you are listening right now. You're at

847
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 2: the gym, or you're driving or whatever. You probably didn't

848
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: even hear all five of them because you yelled at

849
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 2: some point. So I'm gonna say him again. Louisville twenty one,

850
00:40:48,640 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 2: Arkansas twenty two. Some of you just yelled again. You

851
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: saw twenty three Florida twenty four, Bois twenty five. Florida

852
00:40:56,040 --> 00:41:00,240
Speaker 2: got a bump, pretty substantial bump after losing last week,

853
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 2: because that's how power ratings work as opposed to rankings.

854
00:41:04,200 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: You saw Florida lose. Yeah, I did too.

855
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: I saw a sixteen and a half point dog lead

856
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: at halftime and lose in overtime on the road. They

857
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 2: were thirtieth last week. We bumped them to well, I

858
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 2: didn't bump them anywhere. The model bumped them to twenty fourth.

859
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:22,239
Speaker 2: I hit up FanDuel earlier today about Brigham Young because

860
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: I don't have them in the top twenty five. I've

861
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 2: got Brigham Young at thirty. I just asked them give

862
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,359
Speaker 2: me some random stuff like I'm going to take flag

863
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:33,319
Speaker 2: for having Arkansas above BYU, I'm gonna I'm gonna take

864
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 2: some flak for having like Florida clearly above Brigham Young.

865
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: They said both of those matchups would be around to

866
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,880
Speaker 2: Pickham right now. So you are not always totally what

867
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 2: your record says you are in this world. There is

868
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 2: another very interesting team just floating out there. It is

869
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, not Vanderbilt. I got Vandy forty first. By

870
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 2: the way, Virginia Tech is thirty second. I don't normally

871
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 2: go past the top twenty five. Virginia Tech is thirty second.

872
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 2: And I want to ask you to do something after

873
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 2: the show's over. I want you to think about all

874
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 2: the teams you've left for dead. Virginia Tech's one of them.

875
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 2: Then I want you to go look at their conference standings,

876
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 2: and I want you to go to look at their

877
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: remaining schedule, and I want you to just go.

878
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 1: Look at the position they're in.

879
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech is the most quiet, well possessed, well positioned

880
00:42:23,880 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 2: team in the country right now. All their preseason goals

881
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 2: are still there. Ask yourself, who have they lost to.

882
00:42:29,719 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 2: I think they've got one conference loss they got Clemson

883
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 2: still coming to their place later in the season. They

884
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 2: went into the by feeling very good about themselves. I've

885
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 2: got them back to their preseason rating or thereabouts. I

886
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: had them eighty seven point six to start the year.

887
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: I've got them eighty seven point eight now. So Virginia Tech,

888
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: like we thought pretty highly of them coming into the season.

889
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 2: In the aggregate, they're rated even a smidge higher than

890
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 2: I had them in the preseason in the in the

891
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 2: just in that course of time, they went.

892
00:42:59,120 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 1: Below their preseason rating. But they're back. So let's see

893
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 1: what they do with it.

894
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 2: The jpeopole will be very controversial once it hits the

895
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 2: open social media market. After the show I wanted to

896
00:43:11,280 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: share it amongst ourselves first. I mean, I see the

897
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 2: live chat over here, and yeah, some of you are

898
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 2: feeling Virginia Tech right there should certain things fall into place,

899
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: That's what Matthew said. That's my feeling, my friend, they're

900
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 2: right there if certain things fall into place. Okay, they're

901
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 2: watching us in Benita Springs, Florida, Youngstown, Ohio, Santa Monica, California,

902
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,680
Speaker 2: in Rome, Georgia. Thank you guys so much. Another sit

903
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 2: from the Chalice because I will need it for this

904
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 2: next game. This game will not be touted as a

905
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 2: top twenty five matchup when it happens this weekend, But

906
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 2: if you believe in the jpeople, much like Santa Claus

907
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: or the Easter Money, it is real and we have

908
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 2: a top twenty five matchup this weekend. Colin, I had

909
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: a little sneeze that I thought was coming, so I

910
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:05,800
Speaker 2: tried to delay.

911
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 1: But the sneeze is gone. So here's your endpoint.

912
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 2: LSU and Arkansas, I think is a top twenty five matchup. Honestly,

913
00:44:14,040 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 2: you could. You could have my life on the line

914
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 2: right now, and I could not remember whether Arkansas's ranked

915
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:20,880
Speaker 2: in the A people. I don't think they are. But

916
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 2: the jpepole has Arkansas on the top twenty five, and

917
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 2: the tables turn a bit for LSU this week. So

918
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: last week, remember we had a situation where LSU was

919
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,840
Speaker 2: at home, they were off a bye, they hadn't left

920
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:37,879
Speaker 2: Baton Rouge in a month, and conversely, Ole miss back

921
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: to back road game stretch, seventh consecutive game and it

922
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 2: was all tilted towards LSU. Now LSU gets to go

923
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,720
Speaker 2: on the road in a letdown spot against a arrested

924
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,719
Speaker 2: team who was really feeling itself last time you saw them,

925
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 2: because they beat Tennessee at home and storm the field.

926
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 2: Sam Pittman is one in five at home against top

927
00:44:56,920 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: ten teams. So it's either flapped the wings time up

928
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 2: there and fayetviul, or it's everything just reverts back to

929
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 2: the same old negative tone it had. This is as

930
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: big an inflection game, as big a pivot game for

931
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 2: any team as there is in a country this week.

932
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 2: I think because there are two very divergent paths that

933
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,680
Speaker 2: we could be about to go down. Arkansas wins this game,

934
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 2: they are five and two, only one conference loss in

935
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 2: that scenario, by the way, and they are a fringe

936
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 2: playoff contender. I want you to understand, I'm not talking

937
00:45:32,400 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 2: crazy Arkansas. If they win this game, they set up

938
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: for a little stretch run. They'll still play ole mess

939
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:42,879
Speaker 2: Texas and Missouri. Let's say they dropped the Texas game,

940
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 2: but they went out the rest of the way a

941
00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 2: nine and three Arkansas, that kind of SEC team, with

942
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 2: that kind of schedule could be a fringe playoff team. However,

943
00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 2: if they lose, they're four and three and you're on

944
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 2: the precipice of the season, kind of going off the

945
00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 2: rails a little bit and it come down to a

946
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 2: matter of one or two plays, because that's how this

947
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:03,520
Speaker 2: sport works.

948
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: Beautiful and nightmarish all at the same time.

949
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: Taylor Green quarterback there at Arkansas coming off, I think

950
00:46:09,600 --> 00:46:10,800
Speaker 2: his best game of the season.

951
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 1: I don't even know what the numbers say.

952
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: I just think he was having his best game of

953
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 2: the season, all things considered, opponent considered as well. And

954
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 2: he got hurt late and he left the game. I

955
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 2: think it was a bone bruise and the hip. Pittman

956
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 2: said he's probable to go this week, so we expect

957
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 2: him to go. Do we expect one hundred percent mobility?

958
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: That is a very very important thing here, So LSU,

959
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 2: as much as I respect what their defensive staff has

960
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 2: done with that side of the ball, there's still one

961
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,600
Speaker 2: hundred and first in overall pass defense, so there are

962
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 2: plays to be made against that secondary. There's seventy seventh

963
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 2: in explosive play rate allowed, so there are chunk plays

964
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 2: through the air that are able to be had there.

965
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 2: Arkansas's twenty fourth and seventeenth respectively in those stat categories,

966
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,160
Speaker 2: by the way, so it profiles well for Arkansas on

967
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 2: that front. However, if Taylor Green's not mobile, it does

968
00:46:57,760 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 2: not because his mobility is key. If he can't move around,

969
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 2: there's a problem. LSU's got the fourth best pressure rate

970
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 2: defensively in the country, and Arkansas is one hundred and

971
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 2: twenty ninth in pressures allowed.

972
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:12,440
Speaker 1: So nothing standing.

973
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,399
Speaker 2: Still at quarterback is going to be in a good

974
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,480
Speaker 2: position to succeed for Arkansas Saturday night.

975
00:47:16,680 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: So that's part one, Part two.

976
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 2: I think parts of this game profile are very beneficial

977
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,360
Speaker 2: and lean very much towards LSU as well. LSU's not

978
00:47:25,440 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: running the ball, it may not matter. They didn't run

979
00:47:28,800 --> 00:47:31,399
Speaker 2: the ball that great against Ole Miss last week.

980
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 1: I mean Cayden.

981
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 2: Durham had a normal game, a very below average game.

982
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 2: It didn't matter because the rest of the game profiled

983
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,160
Speaker 2: well enough for them to win. And Arkansas's pass defense

984
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 2: is sixty ninth in the country and LSU's sitting there

985
00:47:43,760 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 2: on the border of top five in the country in

986
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: that same stat category. So Garrett Nussmeier, I think in

987
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 2: the latter part of the second half of that game

988
00:47:52,719 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: last week, may have had that moment where it clicked

989
00:47:55,120 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 2: and he woke up and he may go into Arkansas

990
00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:00,440
Speaker 2: Saturday night and get them up seventeen to nothing early,

991
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 2: like if a guy really hit his stride as a quarterback.

992
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 2: We see that happen with guys every year. And all

993
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,359
Speaker 2: of a sudden, you're looking at point spreads, you're looking

994
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,160
Speaker 2: at matchups, and it doesn't matter what this team was

995
00:48:12,160 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 2: a month ago. It's a totally different team now. The

996
00:48:15,160 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 2: strengths just have to overcome the dynamics here. He'll be

997
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 2: able to throw the ball in Arkansas. It's a tough

998
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,400
Speaker 2: spot to be in though for LSU arrest at Arkansas

999
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 2: and their backs still kind of against the wall. They

1000
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:29,319
Speaker 2: don't how much margin for error a rivalry game, and

1001
00:48:29,360 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 2: it's own right. This rivalry has produced some insane results

1002
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,239
Speaker 2: in years past. By the way, and I'll tell you

1003
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:38,759
Speaker 2: another matchup. If you're into the coaching matchup thing. I

1004
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 2: told you last week a lot of folks behind the

1005
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: scenes were interested in watching Oregon's assistance versus Ohio State's assistance.

1006
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: Blake Baker versus Bobby Petrino. Here that's LSU's defensive coordinator

1007
00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 2: versus Arkansas's offensive coordinator.

1008
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 1: Really fun matchup.

1009
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 2: I think this is similar to Miami, honestly, but just

1010
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 2: insert LSU. So if LSU is more than just a

1011
00:49:00,680 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 2: pretty good team, if LSU's more than just a spotty team,

1012
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:07,520
Speaker 2: they'll go in here and their strengths will overcome the

1013
00:49:07,600 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 2: dynamics of the game and they'll find a way to

1014
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,640
Speaker 2: win this game. And I think LSU is a team

1015
00:49:12,680 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 2: that has that capability. Colon, Let's take a look at

1016
00:49:14,640 --> 00:49:16,520
Speaker 2: what the model thinks, because this is going to be

1017
00:49:16,520 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 2: really interesting. So LSU's favored by two and a half

1018
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 2: in this game. The model thinks the wrong team is favored.

1019
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,360
Speaker 2: The model thinks the overall points spread is five points

1020
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 2: off what it should be, and it crosses zero. The

1021
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:33,279
Speaker 2: model has Arkansas winning and favored by two and a half.

1022
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 2: By the way, if we have a healthy tailing Green,

1023
00:49:37,280 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 2: and I'm going to assume we do, I think that

1024
00:49:40,320 --> 00:49:43,080
Speaker 2: he'll be mobile enough, and I think he'll be able

1025
00:49:43,120 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 2: to match points and match throws enough against this LSU defense.

1026
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 2: With what Garrett Nussmeyer puts up that, I think I

1027
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,400
Speaker 2: think some I think some hog magic will be on

1028
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 2: display up there in northwest Arkansas. I think we end

1029
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 2: up getting a really happy Trey bitty walk and talk

1030
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,400
Speaker 2: after the game. I think Arkansas is gonna find a

1031
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 2: way in an absolute knife fight to pull this out

1032
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 2: and win this game. And if they do, then good

1033
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 2: for the JP pole for having them rated when the

1034
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 2: AP wouldn't do it. And number two, the Arkansas conversation

1035
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,359
Speaker 2: becomes kind of sort of low key real because they'll

1036
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 2: be five and two and you know what, if I'm

1037
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 2: wrong and LSU wins, well, then the LSU conversation really

1038
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:22,719
Speaker 2: gets ramped up because this is a game where if

1039
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 2: LSU wins it, the public probably won't respect.

1040
00:50:25,480 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: It a whole lot. I will.

1041
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:29,879
Speaker 2: I will, like the canals of the world will say, oh,

1042
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:31,960
Speaker 2: there goes someone getting too much credit for going to

1043
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 2: beating an average Arkansas team. Well, the thing about it

1044
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:39,839
Speaker 2: is they're not average yet you beating them added a

1045
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 2: loss on their resume and made them appear more average.

1046
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: But that was because of what you dealt out to them.

1047
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,319
Speaker 2: I'll deal with canal off the air. The point is

1048
00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 2: huge pivot moment for both of these teams this year.

1049
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:52,479
Speaker 1: What do we have? Man?

1050
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: How about that nice brisk pace tonight? I'm gonna take

1051
00:50:57,080 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 2: one time out from predicting games. That's why one more

1052
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:03,360
Speaker 2: prediction to come and I've got three added best bets

1053
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: coming up in a second. But you know what we

1054
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 2: haven't done in a while is I haven't looked at

1055
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 2: the inbox or I haven't looked at my mentions and said, yeah, Colin,

1056
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 2: I want you to screenshot that tweet. I want to

1057
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: talk about it tonight, but with challice in hand, and

1058
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna probably finish this off here. We had something

1059
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 2: that I ignored Sunday, but I cannot ignore it anymore.

1060
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 2: So Colin, show me the Ryan Day tweet. I'm just

1061
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 2: composing myself. Don't worry about the silence I'm just just

1062
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 2: gathering my thoughts here. I know your name is not

1063
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 2: Burt Macklin, but you hit me up anyway, and you said,

1064
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,399
Speaker 2: are you done defending Ryan Day after he lost yet

1065
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: again versus a top five team? You know me, You

1066
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 2: know that I'm probably one of the last to pun

1067
00:51:58,320 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 2: on some of these guys. What are we talking about

1068
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 2: right now? Am I done defending Ryan Day?

1069
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:03,919
Speaker 1: Well?

1070
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:06,560
Speaker 2: My defensive Ryan Day has sounded a little something like this.

1071
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 2: I think he's one of the better head coaches in

1072
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,359
Speaker 2: the country. I think he is uniquely qualified and well

1073
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 2: cut out for the job. He has, So if that's

1074
00:52:15,200 --> 00:52:18,560
Speaker 2: defending him, yeah, I guess I'm still going to defend

1075
00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 2: him even after he lost. I was there, Burt Macklin,

1076
00:52:21,719 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 2: I was there, I stood right there. I watched him.

1077
00:52:25,600 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: I watched him fall short against Oregon.

1078
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 2: I think what I saw is them lose a one

1079
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 2: point game against what I think is the top five

1080
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 2: team in the toughest environment I've been in so far

1081
00:52:35,360 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 2: this year. I think that's what I watched, not exactly

1082
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:42,719
Speaker 2: grounds to hit the dump button and just take the

1083
00:52:42,760 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 2: floor out from beneath someone's feet. At least, that's not

1084
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,879
Speaker 2: how I view the game or the sport. So I'm

1085
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:48,839
Speaker 2: all in on Ryan Day.

1086
00:52:48,840 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 1: Still.

1087
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 2: I'm all in on Ryan Day as the head coach

1088
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 2: at Ohio State because of how close they are. Now,

1089
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 2: Ohio State fans or anyone else could come back at

1090
00:52:57,200 --> 00:53:00,239
Speaker 2: me and you could say, what do you what are

1091
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 2: you still all in on Ryan Day for how close

1092
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:03,359
Speaker 2: they are?

1093
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,359
Speaker 1: What are you talking about? We're Ohio State.

1094
00:53:05,400 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 2: We don't just want to be close, we want to win. Well,

1095
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 2: I never said you just want to be close. You

1096
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:12,920
Speaker 2: misunderstood what I'm saying. I said I'm all in on

1097
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 2: Ryan Day because of how close. They've been for a while, Josh,

1098
00:53:16,520 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 2: that doesn't prove anything. Though they're close. How does that

1099
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:22,680
Speaker 2: prove he can win something? Well, it doesn't, It doesn't.

1100
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 2: I think he can win something. I think he could

1101
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:28,880
Speaker 2: win a national title. I don't have proof, because how

1102
00:53:28,960 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: could you have proof under those pretenses until he's holding

1103
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:34,399
Speaker 2: the trophy, we don't have proof, right Like I think

1104
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 2: Landing could win one, I don't have proof that he

1105
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 2: could do it. I thought for a long time Kirby

1106
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:41,680
Speaker 2: Smart could win one. And by the way, folks down

1107
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,240
Speaker 2: south were telling me he couldn't win the big one.

1108
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 2: The whole Ryan day Kirby Smart correlations fascinating. We's no

1109
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,879
Speaker 2: one out there has the stones to admit they used

1110
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:54,239
Speaker 2: to run their mouth about Kirby Smart. Kirby Smart gets

1111
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:58,359
Speaker 2: to Georgia in twenty sixteen and seventeen eighteen, nineteen twenty.

1112
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 2: He keeps on running into Allah Obama. He keeps on

1113
00:54:01,000 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 2: losing to Bama, and folks keep on saying, man, he

1114
00:54:04,040 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 2: just can't.

1115
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,720
Speaker 1: Win the big one, like Mark Rick two point zero.

1116
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 2: I swear to you, there was this graphic that kept

1117
00:54:11,080 --> 00:54:15,200
Speaker 2: circulating Southern football circles, and it was a versus b

1118
00:54:15,640 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 2: whose resume is better. And it was Rick and Kirby,

1119
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 2: and they were allegedly the same person, and then something happened.

1120
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 2: He rattled off two national titles in a row, and

1121
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:25,480
Speaker 2: no one.

1122
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:26,280
Speaker 1: Says that anymore.

1123
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 2: And the thing about it is he didn't do it

1124
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:29,760
Speaker 2: in the first two or three years of his career.

1125
00:54:30,040 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 2: It took a few years. So Ryan Days in year

1126
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 2: six of his head coaching career at Ohio State right now,

1127
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:37,520
Speaker 2: and he's gotten really close a lot and hasn't gotten

1128
00:54:37,560 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 2: over the finish line. And so you look at me,

1129
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:43,319
Speaker 2: and I know you do, because I've been reading all

1130
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 2: this in advance and doing the segment tonight, and you

1131
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,319
Speaker 2: keep saying, man, well, him being closed, that's not what

1132
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:49,799
Speaker 2: we want to do here. That doesn't prove he can

1133
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 2: win anything. Well, to me, it proves you got the

1134
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:54,759
Speaker 2: right head coach. And the reason I think that is

1135
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,160
Speaker 2: because the wrong head coach doesn't have a program in

1136
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 2: the position Ohio State's in half a dozen years into

1137
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 2: his career.

1138
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: There he could benefit.

1139
00:55:04,239 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 2: Off the wake of somebody else's success for a while,

1140
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:10,799
Speaker 2: but eventually the program becomes his, and if he's not

1141
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,359
Speaker 2: the real deal, the program will regress and you will

1142
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 2: not be nipping on the heels of the best teams

1143
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 2: in the country and the best programs in the country. Now,

1144
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 2: there are some things I think they lack, like I

1145
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: don't think they have the killer instinct of the Michigan

1146
00:55:23,520 --> 00:55:27,279
Speaker 2: teams they played recently, or a vintage Alabama or a Georgia.

1147
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 2: That's a short list, guys, that's a short list. So

1148
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,840
Speaker 2: there's a whole lot further to fall down that ladder

1149
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 2: than there is room to climb. I'm not telling you

1150
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:36,880
Speaker 2: he's on top of anything. I'm not telling you this

1151
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 2: program has been on top of anything. I'm telling you

1152
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:41,760
Speaker 2: that they don't own the line of scrimmage like they should.

1153
00:55:42,520 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 2: I think part of that is developmental more so than

1154
00:55:46,040 --> 00:55:49,120
Speaker 2: it is talent acquisition. So that's something that he can address.

1155
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:51,440
Speaker 2: That's a tangible thing that I don't think they're good

1156
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 2: enough in doing. I don't think that team has a

1157
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:56,720
Speaker 2: killer instinct. I don't think they play with the supreme

1158
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 2: level of physicality and owning the game, running the ball

1159
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:03,680
Speaker 2: to the degree that an Ohio State team should given

1160
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 2: the talent profile they have. These are tangible things that

1161
00:56:07,160 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 2: they sometimes disappoint me in the category of so that

1162
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 2: ultimately falls on the head coach. We are talking about

1163
00:56:13,400 --> 00:56:16,239
Speaker 2: splitting hairs here because the bottom line is all that

1164
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:18,719
Speaker 2: stuff about this year's team could be the same. They

1165
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 2: could have gone to Oregon and won last year. And

1166
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 2: if this team hits a field goal against Georgia a

1167
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 2: couple of years ago and wins a title, it's national

1168
00:56:25,440 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 2: title winning head coach Ryan Day And none of this

1169
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:31,920
Speaker 2: is being said about him. And it's insane because he's

1170
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 2: the exact same coach scenario A versus scenario B. His

1171
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 2: trophy case just looks different because the ball's shaped in

1172
00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 2: very weird ways, and bounces happen and this and that happens.

1173
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:44,279
Speaker 2: And I think Mick Saban ruined this game for a

1174
00:56:44,280 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 2: lot of you because a lot of you watched what

1175
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,920
Speaker 2: Sabin did at Alabama and that became your standard. Like

1176
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 2: you think that's supposed to be real, that's supposed to

1177
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:55,360
Speaker 2: be obtainable. What Sabin did at Alabama is not supposed

1178
00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:57,560
Speaker 2: to happen the way it's supposed to work. If you

1179
00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,840
Speaker 2: have one of the best head coaches in America, is

1180
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:03,160
Speaker 2: he get you in the conversation every year and on

1181
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:06,120
Speaker 2: average once every decade.

1182
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 1: You should be able to reach, reach, reach. Oh I

1183
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:12,760
Speaker 1: grabbed the belt. Yes, I got one. On average. Prior

1184
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:16,400
Speaker 1: to Nick Saban, the best in the history of this sport.

1185
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:20,360
Speaker 2: If their career span, you know, fifteen twenty years, you

1186
00:57:20,480 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 2: just average them out, they may win you a couple

1187
00:57:23,040 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 2: of titles.

1188
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,240
Speaker 1: Over their entire career. That's a good career.

1189
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,640
Speaker 2: You coach fifteen years and win two titles, you're a legend.

1190
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 2: Then Saban comes along and hangs half a dozen, and

1191
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 2: you think if you're not there every year. Wait, we

1192
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:40,400
Speaker 2: got to really rethink how we're running this program. Well,

1193
00:57:40,440 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 2: rethink Ohio State football right now?

1194
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:43,400
Speaker 1: Do it?

1195
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 2: Like, respond to me in the comment section here, you

1196
00:57:45,920 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 2: tell me what you do to overhaul it.

1197
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 1: I'm going to ask you a brief favor.

1198
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 2: By the way, for all of you questioning Ryan Day

1199
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:54,280
Speaker 2: and questioning the medal of this program, could you do

1200
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 2: me one favor. Could you allow me to see how

1201
00:57:56,760 --> 00:58:01,080
Speaker 2: this season plays out best? I could tell it's October fifteenth.

1202
00:58:01,320 --> 00:58:04,080
Speaker 2: They just lost a game by one to a team

1203
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 2: that will be there in the end in Oregon. They

1204
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 2: lost it on the road. I couldn't hear the person

1205
00:58:08,760 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 2: standing next to me on the sideline.

1206
00:58:10,880 --> 00:58:13,120
Speaker 1: Do you mind if I just see how they do.

1207
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:16,360
Speaker 2: The rest of the way before we question the general

1208
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:18,920
Speaker 2: in the middle of the battle, do you mind just

1209
00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 2: for my own sake, I ano the rest of you

1210
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: may have your mind made up. Can I please just

1211
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 2: see how the season plays out, and then come December

1212
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: or preferably January, I'll be happy to revisit this. I

1213
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 2: doubt my tone changes a whole lot, but yeah, the

1214
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 2: answer is I'm still defending Ryan Day because I still

1215
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 2: think he is, like slam Dunk, the right guy for

1216
00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 2: the job. FanDuel exclusively provides the odds on this program,

1217
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 2: and I've got some best bets and another game to

1218
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 2: break down. So this is not the end of the show.

1219
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:53,080
Speaker 2: I know what the accusation is gonna be, Jesse. The

1220
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,959
Speaker 2: accusation is gonna be we're carrying water for Ryan Day.

1221
00:58:56,240 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 1: Now.

1222
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 2: What's funny about that is the further away you get

1223
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: the situation. Like if I were to go find a

1224
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 2: Green Bay Packers fan who doesn't watch a lot of

1225
00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 2: college football and I introduce them to the facts of

1226
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:11,360
Speaker 2: the case, they would say, why'd you waste time on

1227
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:11,720
Speaker 2: the show?

1228
00:59:11,800 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 1: Like you're just stating common sense. Little do they know?

1229
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:18,600
Speaker 2: Little do they know what awaits me in my inbox

1230
00:59:18,640 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 2: every time I talk about Ohio State? So anyway, Fanduels

1231
00:59:22,440 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 2: in on it too, Fanduels carrying water for Ohio State.

1232
00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:26,520
Speaker 2: They still got them among the favorites to win the

1233
00:59:26,560 --> 00:59:30,440
Speaker 2: national title. Idiots, what do they know? And you wouldn't

1234
00:59:30,440 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 2: believe it, but they're also still right up there in

1235
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 2: the odds to win the Big ten frauds fraud alert?

1236
00:59:35,920 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 1: What does FanDuel know?

1237
00:59:37,600 --> 00:59:42,440
Speaker 2: So you have got right now at your fingertips the

1238
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 2: ability this weekend to bet five dollars and win three hundred.

1239
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 2: If you're a new sign up, if you're just arriving

1240
00:59:48,080 --> 00:59:49,880
Speaker 2: to the game, you've been thinking, do I.

1241
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: Want to get in this number one?

1242
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,800
Speaker 2: Make sure you've got money that you can afford to

1243
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:55,280
Speaker 2: have fun with, because if you don't, you don't need

1244
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 2: to be betting. So be very responsible with this. But hey,

1245
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,960
Speaker 2: you just got a five You sign up and you

1246
01:00:03,000 --> 01:00:05,360
Speaker 2: can do it through our QR code or you can

1247
01:00:05,400 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 2: just type in FanDuel dot com backslash CFB promotion.

1248
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 1: That's how you get in through our portal.

1249
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 2: You go bet five dollars, find you a big money

1250
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 2: line favorite, like make it as easy on yourself as possible.

1251
01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 2: Bet five hundred dollars. Five dollars, you win three hundred.

1252
01:00:18,640 --> 01:00:21,600
Speaker 2: It may sound like I messed up there, I didn't.

1253
01:00:21,800 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 2: You bet five, you win three hundred. Just as long

1254
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 2: as your bet wins, you win three hundred. You don't

1255
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 2: have to bet the spread. You can go bet a

1256
01:00:27,360 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 2: money line like go find up three touchdown favorite. Make

1257
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:33,560
Speaker 2: it really easy. And they do this every week for

1258
01:00:33,640 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 2: us man. I was back and forth with FanDuel today.

1259
01:00:36,640 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 2: I needed them to back me up on that Ohio

1260
01:00:38,400 --> 01:00:42,120
Speaker 2: State Oregon JP poll situation because I know how that's

1261
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 2: going to go. So I appreciate FanDuel, And in the

1262
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 2: spirit of that, before I get to this last game prediction,

1263
01:00:47,120 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: I've got some added best bets aboard the ram Noodle Express.

1264
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:52,160
Speaker 2: We put Auburn plus six and a half on there

1265
01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 2: the other day, about to break that game down in

1266
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 2: a second. By the way, I got three added best

1267
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,280
Speaker 2: bets tonight, and I have got to be honest of you.

1268
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 2: This first one was tough because we bet them last

1269
01:01:05,720 --> 01:01:09,280
Speaker 2: week and we got our hearts ripped out. Van Pelt

1270
01:01:09,280 --> 01:01:11,720
Speaker 2: and Stanford Steve did a great job of chronicling that

1271
01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:14,640
Speaker 2: in bad beats, But we are going right back to

1272
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 2: the well with ball State or Ball's Tate, depending on

1273
01:01:17,040 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 2: how you want to pronounce it. Ball State plus twenty

1274
01:01:19,320 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 2: six and a half. They are coming to Nashville. They're

1275
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:24,040
Speaker 2: playing Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is in a double due down spot,

1276
01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 2: in a look ahead spot. I just cannot, for the

1277
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 2: life of me see them running away from ball State. Well,

1278
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 2: I could, but I don't think it'll happen. So ball

1279
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 2: State plus twenty six and a half. We're taking Florida

1280
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: plus one and a half against Kentucky. Model thinks the

1281
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 2: wrong team is favored there, Lagways getting the start. I

1282
01:01:41,080 --> 01:01:43,440
Speaker 2: do not think Florida has mailed it in yet. I

1283
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 2: think there's still a lot of life to that team,

1284
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 2: and I think they will beat Kentucky. And they're being

1285
01:01:47,560 --> 01:01:50,800
Speaker 2: given one and a half points at home, and Texas

1286
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 2: minus three and a half is best bet. I'm confident

1287
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:56,120
Speaker 2: in Texas this week. I don't care if everyone else.

1288
01:01:56,000 --> 01:01:58,880
Speaker 1: Is as well. I love the profile of that matchup for.

1289
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 2: Texas, so I'm taking ball State plus twenty six and

1290
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 2: a half, Florida plus one and a half, and Texas

1291
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 2: minus three and a half, all available right now.

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Speaker 2: go at least that deep agin this week. Sign up

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Speaker 1: Do you have a gambling problem?

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01:02:46,480 --> 01:02:49,760
Speaker 2: If so, call one eight hundred gambler or visitfanduel dot

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01:02:49,800 --> 01:02:53,880
Speaker 2: com backslash RG call one eight eight eight seven eight

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01:02:54,040 --> 01:02:58,040
Speaker 2: nine seven seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org

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01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:02,520
Speaker 2: backslash chat in Connecticut, or visit MD Gamblinghelp dot org

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Speaker 2: in Maryland. Hope is here, visit gambling Heelplinema dot org

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01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:10,000
Speaker 2: or call eight hundred three two seven fifty to fifty

1310
01:03:10,040 --> 01:03:12,960
Speaker 2: for twenty four to seven support. In Massachusetts, or call

1311
01:03:13,080 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 2: one eight seven seven eight Hope, n Y. Or text

1312
01:03:16,680 --> 01:03:21,360
Speaker 2: Hop E n Y. In New York. Okay, there's a

1313
01:03:21,400 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 2: game happening in Columbia, Missouri this Saturday, Auburn versus Missouri

1314
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 2: Tiger on Tiger Action here twelve Eastern eleven local time

1315
01:03:29,000 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 2: on ESPM. Question, last time most of us watched Missouri,

1316
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:37,240
Speaker 2: it was when they were on the road at A

1317
01:03:37,280 --> 01:03:39,280
Speaker 2: and M. They got blown out. Now they since it

1318
01:03:39,320 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 2: played U Mass and they righted the ship. You see

1319
01:03:42,280 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 2: you see Missouri walking into that locker rooms like watching

1320
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:46,160
Speaker 2: a team walking in a high school locker room. It

1321
01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:49,800
Speaker 2: is utterly amazing. Missouri playing a road game at UMass

1322
01:03:50,920 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 2: is war crime, drugs. So they were at an M.

1323
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:57,840
Speaker 2: Last time you probably watched them and they got blown out.

1324
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:01,000
Speaker 2: How much of that was for real? How much of

1325
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:04,000
Speaker 2: that was a mirage and just A and M clicking

1326
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 2: on all the right cylinders versus Missouri being exposed because

1327
01:04:08,600 --> 01:04:10,760
Speaker 2: they got out played in every facet. It wasn't flucish

1328
01:04:10,840 --> 01:04:15,080
Speaker 2: at all. Auburn, you know the story with them. They're

1329
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 2: a good team masquerading as a bad team because of turnovers,

1330
01:04:19,520 --> 01:04:21,600
Speaker 2: which makes them a bad team. If you could ever

1331
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 2: erase the turnovers and take everything else as is, they'd

1332
01:04:24,200 --> 01:04:26,960
Speaker 2: be a good team. It's all about what Auburn should

1333
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 2: be able to do in this game. Should I wrote

1334
01:04:29,880 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 2: it in all caps on the piece of paper in

1335
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 2: front of me. Auburn should be able to rely on

1336
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 2: Jarquez Hunter. They should be able to run the ball

1337
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 2: on anybody fairly effectively. They should be able to take

1338
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 2: Hunter and do the same thing that A and m

1339
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:44,760
Speaker 2: was able to lean on Le'Veon.

1340
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:44,960
Speaker 1: Moss to do.

1341
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:49,000
Speaker 2: That should be a situation that Auburn could count on.

1342
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 2: Missouri is thirty eighth against the run, not elite there,

1343
01:04:52,600 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 2: Auburn should be able to do something. Peyton Thorn has

1344
01:04:55,600 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 2: good weapons around him. Peyton Thorn through for someho how

1345
01:05:00,400 --> 01:05:03,520
Speaker 2: his best yardage day against the best defense he's faced.

1346
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 2: He threw for three point thirty eight against Oklahoma. How

1347
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 2: they lose?

1348
01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 1: Turnover? Pick six?

1349
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 2: Turnover Like the answer to anything bad that's happened to

1350
01:05:12,720 --> 01:05:17,520
Speaker 2: Auburn this year, turnover or turnovers plural, so, Brady Cook.

1351
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 2: So that's the Auburn side of things, Like, Auburn should

1352
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:23,360
Speaker 2: be able to have success offensively. I've never said the

1353
01:05:23,360 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 2: words should with more trepidation in my life. Brady Cook

1354
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 2: feels off to me. Still, there are rumblings that he's

1355
01:05:30,560 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 2: not one hundred percent physically. I don't think he's one

1356
01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 2: hundred percent physically.

1357
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:35,439
Speaker 1: Jesse. Remember we were at the A and M game.

1358
01:05:35,480 --> 01:05:37,200
Speaker 1: I took producer Jesse on the road.

1359
01:05:37,200 --> 01:05:39,480
Speaker 2: By the way, I was standing next to him, and

1360
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 2: I kept on looking at Missouri's bench, and I look

1361
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:45,200
Speaker 2: at the way Brady Cook just carries himself. He looked comfortable.

1362
01:05:45,360 --> 01:05:48,120
Speaker 2: He doesn't look one hundred percent healthy. He's given it

1363
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:51,040
Speaker 2: everything he's got. I'm not questioning his effort. Quite the opposite.

1364
01:05:51,080 --> 01:05:54,720
Speaker 2: I'm praising his effort. But if you're hurt, you're hurt.

1365
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 2: Or if you're limited, you're limited. And the reason that

1366
01:05:57,640 --> 01:06:01,920
Speaker 2: matters is because I love Theoese. I love having Luther Burden.

1367
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:03,640
Speaker 2: If I don't have a quarterback that I can count

1368
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:06,080
Speaker 2: on to be accurate and take advantage of those guys,

1369
01:06:06,960 --> 01:06:09,840
Speaker 2: I don't think that Auburn, nor do I think A

1370
01:06:09,920 --> 01:06:12,000
Speaker 2: and M really is going to respect your ability to

1371
01:06:12,000 --> 01:06:15,600
Speaker 2: go downfield on them, and that really condenses the field

1372
01:06:15,800 --> 01:06:18,240
Speaker 2: and makes it a lot harder for you to do

1373
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:20,440
Speaker 2: what you've been able to do. See Missouri when they've

1374
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:22,320
Speaker 2: been at their best, they have a running back like

1375
01:06:22,360 --> 01:06:25,920
Speaker 2: Cody Schrader, and they're able to rip off explosive plays

1376
01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:29,760
Speaker 2: on the ground, which opens up everything else. Noel Carroll like,

1377
01:06:29,840 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 2: do they have that kind of day here against Auburn?

1378
01:06:33,040 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 2: I don't know that they will because I don't think

1379
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:36,800
Speaker 2: the field, I don't think the box will open up

1380
01:06:36,920 --> 01:06:38,960
Speaker 2: enough for him to do it. If it does, that

1381
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 2: gets plenty of one on ones against an Auburn secondary

1382
01:06:41,640 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 2: that's green and can be had.

1383
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 1: So that's a huge turning point in this game.

1384
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:48,400
Speaker 2: Missouri's off back to back road games, Auburn's off a bye.

1385
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 2: If either team honestly self scouts itself, you got to

1386
01:06:53,280 --> 01:06:55,880
Speaker 2: be left asking why aren't we running the ball more effectively?

1387
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 1: Why aren't we running at more period?

1388
01:06:58,200 --> 01:07:00,840
Speaker 2: So I've sucked on total this year, but I take

1389
01:07:00,840 --> 01:07:02,720
Speaker 2: the under on this game at fifty one and a half.

1390
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:04,880
Speaker 2: But I've got another lean on this game, so I'm

1391
01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 2: not messing with the total. Colin, Let's take a look

1392
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 2: at what the model thinks. Because FanDuel thinks Missouri should

1393
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 2: be favored by five and a half. We have disagreed

1394
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:15,919
Speaker 2: all week. We got Missouri minus three and a half

1395
01:07:15,920 --> 01:07:18,320
Speaker 2: on the model. We took Auburn plus six and a

1396
01:07:18,360 --> 01:07:20,640
Speaker 2: half earlier in the week as one of our best bets.

1397
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:23,240
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go step further. I think Auburn finds a

1398
01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 2: way to edge out Missouri and just win.

1399
01:07:25,280 --> 01:07:26,360
Speaker 1: The game outright.

1400
01:07:26,680 --> 01:07:28,360
Speaker 2: And what a turning point that would be for Hugh

1401
01:07:28,360 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 2: Freeze if he was able to do it. But just

1402
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 2: in case, FanDuel gave us six and a half points,

1403
01:07:33,960 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 2: they're still giving us five and a half points. I

1404
01:07:35,760 --> 01:07:37,960
Speaker 2: still like the number at five and a half. Anything

1405
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:40,440
Speaker 2: above three I like, and I don't think it'll get

1406
01:07:40,440 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 2: all the way down to three. Oh my goodness, what

1407
01:07:43,320 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 2: a disgusting stat Director Colin throws up here the worst

1408
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 2: records in SEC play since twenty twenty two. Vandy is

1409
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 2: four and fifteen, Auburn is five and fourteen. Arkansas has

1410
01:07:57,520 --> 01:08:00,000
Speaker 2: been better than Auburn. Oh man, Well, there's some rough

1411
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 2: times baked into that. Okay, Well, what better time to

1412
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 2: turn it around than when I pick you. That's always

1413
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:07,800
Speaker 2: the best time to win when we pick you on

1414
01:08:07,840 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 2: the show. Appreciate you guys for watching. Make sure that

1415
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:13,520
Speaker 2: not only you are subscribed to the channel, make sure

1416
01:08:13,560 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 2: you'll bring five of your friends as well. That still

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01:08:15,720 --> 01:08:18,479
Speaker 2: counts for you guys who listen on podcast, please do so.

1418
01:08:19,120 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 2: I say you guys, you guys, and you ladies, because

1419
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:23,320
Speaker 2: when we go out on the road every week, we

1420
01:08:23,360 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 2: are finding a large female contingent that is intimately aware.

1421
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:32,160
Speaker 1: And familiar with the show. So we appreciate everybody who

1422
01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,240
Speaker 1: watches the show. Appreciate you guys so much. Make sure

1423
01:08:34,280 --> 01:08:35,920
Speaker 1: you're subscribe and we will be back.

1424
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:38,040
Speaker 2: We don't even have to do the show early Thursday

1425
01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:40,880
Speaker 2: because we're just going over to not Still afterwards, so

1426
01:08:40,920 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 2: we'll be.

1427
01:08:41,240 --> 01:08:42,880
Speaker 1: Back same time Thursday evening.

1428
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 2: Cublic will probably be along if we can track him

1429
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:46,320
Speaker 2: down until then.

1430
01:08:46,360 --> 01:08:48,320
Speaker 1: For director Colin and producer Jesse, I'm Josh Bate.

1431
01:08:48,400 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 2: Take care, have a great rest of your evening, and

1432
01:08:50,240 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 2: God bless. Sign Up for at FanDuel dot com backslash

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Speaker 2: seven seven seven, or visit CCPG dot org backslash chat

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Speaker 2: in Connecticut, or visit MD Gamblinghelp dot org. In Maryland,

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Speaker 2: Hope is here, visit gambling heelplinema dot org, or call

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Speaker 2: Y in New York