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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day Baker podcast. Good morning, It's Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: the twenty sixth of November. I'm Caroline Hepget in London.

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Speaker 2: Coming up today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves prepares to deliver her

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Speaker 2: long trailed budget in what could be a day of

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Speaker 2: reckoning for the government. Exclusive Bloomberg reporting reveals the US

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Speaker 2: Presidential ENVOYE Steve Whitkoff advised Russia on how to pitch

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Speaker 2: the Ukraine peace plan to President Trump. Plus casting a

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Speaker 2: wide net after gold and diamonds, Moscow turns its attention

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Speaker 2: to Africa's trove of fish. Let's start with a roundup

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Speaker 2: of our top stories. Rachel Reeves will set out her

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Speaker 2: budget later today as she tries to win over her party,

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Speaker 2: the public and the markets. Britain's Chancellor is widely expected

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Speaker 2: to set out a range of tax hikes to fill

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Speaker 2: a thirty billion power on fiscal whole, a year after

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Speaker 2: raising levies and promising that she wouldn't come back for more.

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Speaker 2: Pimco senior advisor Rupert Harrison told Bloomberg Radio this long

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Speaker 2: list of taxes comes with risks.

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Speaker 3: They were easy predictable cost free tax rises sort of

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Speaker 3: sitting around. They would have been picked up by previous chancellors.

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Speaker 3: And also the predictability of the revenues is less, so

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Speaker 3: I think we've already seen that, for example, some of

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Speaker 3: the measures around non domiciles and the ending of the

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Speaker 3: non don regime in the UK. I think there are

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Speaker 3: still big question marks about whether that has raised the

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Speaker 3: revenues that were predicted.

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Speaker 2: Rupert Harrison speaking there, who helped to draft George Osborne's

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Speaker 2: twenty twelve Omni Shamble's budget and see some similarities to

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Speaker 2: this year. Elusive economic growth has helped make Rachel Reeves

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Speaker 2: the most unpopular chancellor since polling began, with guilds also

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Speaker 2: hitting multi decade highs. Reeves is hoping markets will reward

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Speaker 2: her budget with a decline in government borrowing costs, but

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Speaker 2: investors have been hedging to protect against currency volatility.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: Reform UK's leader Nigel Farahs has rejected claims that he

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Speaker 2: made of racist comments as a teenager, after an investigation

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Speaker 2: rocked his attempts to paint Reform UK as a moderate party.

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Speaker 2: Several of the popular politician's classmates have accused him of racism,

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Speaker 2: bullying and anti Semitic abuse when he attended Dullage College

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Speaker 2: forty nine years ago. Journalists asked Farage about the claims

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Speaker 2: that a Reform rally in Wales.

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Speaker 5: Can I remember everything that happler school now? I can't.

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Speaker 1: Have I ever been part of an extremist organization or

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Speaker 1: engage in direct, unpleasant personal abuse, genuine abuse on that basis.

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Speaker 5: No, Nigel Farage.

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Speaker 2: Their Reform UK are the most popular political party in

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Speaker 2: Britain as Pole stands, with Faraj being talked about as

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Speaker 2: a potential next Prime Minister of the UK. Bluemaker has

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Speaker 2: learned that US Presidential ENVOYE. Steve Whitkoff held a phone

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Speaker 2: call last month with a senior Kremlin official to suggest

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Speaker 2: they worked together on a piece plan for Ukraine similar

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Speaker 2: to Gaza, and that Vladimir Putin should raise it with

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. In an October fourteenth phone call that lasted

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Speaker 2: a little over five minutes, Witkoff advised Yuri Ushikov, Putin's

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Speaker 2: top foreign policy aid, on how the Russian leader should

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Speaker 2: broach the issue with President Trump. His guidance included suggestions

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Speaker 2: on setting up a Trump Putin call before Vladimir Zelinski's

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Speaker 2: White House visit later that week, and using the Garza

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Speaker 2: agreement as a way in, and, according to transcripts obtained

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Speaker 2: by Bloomberg News, Witkoff advised Russia on how to bring

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Speaker 2: up the topic with President Trump. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov

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Speaker 2: didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. However, asked

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Speaker 2: about Witkoff's approach while on Air Force One, President Trump

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Speaker 2: said he hadn't reviewed the call, but that he heard

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Speaker 2: it was a standard negotiation.

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Speaker 5: He's going to sell this to Ukraine. It's going to

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Speaker 5: show Ukraine to Russia.

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Speaker 4: This.

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Speaker 5: That's what a deal maker does. You've got to say, Look,

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Speaker 5: they want this.

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Speaker 4: You've got to convince him with this.

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Speaker 5: And I would imagine he's saying the same thing to Ukraine,

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Speaker 5: because each party has to give it to.

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Speaker 2: President Trump added that his Special envoice Steve Whitkoff, will

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Speaker 2: meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, likely

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Speaker 2: next week. In a separate social media post on Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: President Trump wrote that there are only a few remaining

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Speaker 2: points of disagreement, with tremendous progress, in his words, made

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Speaker 2: over agreeing a deal to end Russia's war with Ukraine. Now,

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Speaker 2: White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has emerged

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Speaker 2: as the front runner to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands that the economists would be a close ally

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Speaker 2: to President Trump and implement his approach to interest rate

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Speaker 2: cutting were he to lead the central Bank. Speaking on

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Speaker 2: Fox New US, Hassett said he would accept the position.

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Speaker 1: If you were to ask me to be fed cher,

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Speaker 1: then of course I would have to say yes, because.

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Speaker 4: I want to serve my country and I want to

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Speaker 4: serve my president.

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Speaker 5: But you know, we'll see how it goes. There are

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Speaker 5: a lot of.

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Speaker 2: Great candidates, Kevin hasse speaking their US Treasury Secretary Scott

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Speaker 2: Best centers on the selection process interviewing candidates to replace Powell.

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Speaker 2: In a statement, White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt said, quote,

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Speaker 2: nobody knows who the President will choose. The FED pick

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Speaker 2: will also need to be confirmed by the Senate. Treasuries

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Speaker 2: rallied pushing the ten year yield below four percent for

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Speaker 2: the first time in a month on news that Hassett

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Speaker 2: is a favorite for the post. And lastly, Apple is

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Speaker 2: said to take back its crown as the world's largest

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Speaker 2: smartphone maker. That's after the latest iPhone release inspired a

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Speaker 2: spate of upgrades. Please make semer add A Bio has

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Speaker 2: more Now.

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Speaker 6: For the first time in more than a decade, Apple

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Speaker 6: is pointsed to once again become the world's number one

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Speaker 6: phone seller. That's according to technology analysis firm Counterpoint Research,

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Speaker 6: who say the company is benefiting from calling US China

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Speaker 6: trade relations and a depreciating dollar. Their figures show Apple

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Speaker 6: surpassing long time rival Samsung sales growth by more than

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Speaker 6: five percent this year. The tech giants said last month

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Speaker 6: that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday

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Speaker 6: quarter poised to approach a record one hundred and forty

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Speaker 6: billion dollars in revenue. In London, Tea A Dubaio, Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Those are our top stories for you in the market.

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Speaker 2: Some momentum back in global equity markets. We are by

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Speaker 2: three tens of one percent of your country World Index.

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Speaker 2: Asia stocks also rising for a third day. There are

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Speaker 2: more bets now on a December Fed rate cut, USN

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Speaker 2: European stock futures of art. We also had European stocks

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Speaker 2: gaining yesterday. Deutsche Bank now putting a price target S

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred to each eight thousand by the

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Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty six. Treasury yields this morning trading

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Speaker 2: at for spot zero one, so actually just above the

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Speaker 2: four percent mark, up one and a half basis points.

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Speaker 2: Right now, we have a weaker dollar and the pound

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Speaker 2: is strengthening. Ahead of the budget, We're going to bring

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Speaker 2: you more news on the UK Chancellor's second ever budget

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Speaker 2: in a moment, and also why Russia has said it

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Speaker 2: cites on fishing off the coast of Africa. But before

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Speaker 2: we get to those stories, there's always something that catches

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Speaker 2: my eye, and today is recipe writers who say that

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Speaker 2: AI generated recipe slop is ruining cooking advice online. All

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Speaker 2: of this ahead of Thanksgiving, ahead of the festive period

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Speaker 2: where no doubt you'll all be searching for your best recipes.

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Speaker 2: Apparently AI can generate summaries that distort the basics, according

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Speaker 2: to these recipe writers of their creations. For example, the

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Speaker 2: Easypas foodie writer, she says that her tried and tested

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Speaker 2: recipes are being garbled. Bloomberg's at daved Albert and Carmen

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Speaker 2: are Royo writing really quite heartbreakingly about recipe writers who

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Speaker 2: say that they're vetted recipes are either being hidden by

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Speaker 2: the flood of AI, or the AI generated replicas of

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Speaker 2: their recipes are appearing online, or even that their images

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Speaker 2: are being altered into AI fodder. All of this the

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Speaker 2: first ever holiday season where consumers are starting to trust

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Speaker 2: it seems the AI answers that they look at when

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Speaker 2: it comes to recipes. Anyway, that was a story of

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Speaker 2: note for me. Right, let's get into the more serious topics,

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Speaker 2: shall we.

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Speaker 5: Today?

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Speaker 2: Chancellor hel Reeves is due to deliver what she has

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Speaker 2: said will be a fair budget. It's likely to be

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Speaker 2: a contentious package of tax increases and spending restraint to

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Speaker 2: close a fiscal hole of as much as thirty billion

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Speaker 2: pounds after a period of intense speculation. Will it reassure

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Speaker 2: markets that the government won't be back in the same

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Speaker 2: straits next year. Joining me in now as Bloomberg UK

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Speaker 2: Politics reporter James Walcock for more.

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Speaker 5: Good morning, James.

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Speaker 2: What is Reeve's expected to announce at lunchtime today?

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Speaker 7: I've been inspired by your recipe chat Caroline, so I'll

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Speaker 7: tell you. If you do twelve months of policy U

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Speaker 7: turns and an economic downgrade and bake it, you get

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Speaker 7: a raft of tax rises. We reported yesterday in two

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Speaker 7: big bloomberg scoops. On one hand, there's going to be

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Speaker 7: a tourist tax that local mayors will levy. On the

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Speaker 7: other hand, a bank tax is off the table. And

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Speaker 7: this adds to this big picture of the biggest levers

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Speaker 7: which we thought a few weeks ago were in contention.

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Speaker 7: The likes of income tax, vaight nationlod shows have been

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Speaker 7: ruled out. This was a big bloomboak scoop in two

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Speaker 7: weeks ago that actually the economic forecasts have improved and

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Speaker 7: we'll find that out so when the cherrou stands up

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Speaker 7: later today. But the thinking now is that we're going

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Speaker 7: to get a range of other taxes. I mean the

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Speaker 7: runners and riders are a mansion tax, attax and high

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Speaker 7: value homes, a limit on how much you can put

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Speaker 7: in your pension tax free syntaxes, the likes of gambling, alcohol,

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Speaker 7: taxes on evs, electric vehicles as more people move to

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Speaker 7: using greener transport, and a but to the amount of

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Speaker 7: cash you can put in your cash ier versus the stocks.

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Speaker 5: And shares ISA.

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Speaker 7: These are all some of the runners and riders, and

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Speaker 7: they are by no means all. We are expecting quite

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Speaker 7: a lot of quite punitive measures. Here is worth saying

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Speaker 7: the past few weeks have been dogged by tax speculation, Caroline.

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Speaker 7: But we will also hear two things that I think

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Speaker 7: it's worth paying attention to in the budget later today.

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Speaker 7: The economic forecasts of how the government and the OBR,

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Speaker 7: the independent watchdog, think the economy is doing. And a

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Speaker 7: political narrative. The budget is the moment the Chancellor, as

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Speaker 7: the most senior economic figure in the government, pulls together

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Speaker 7: a narrative of how the government is doing and what

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Speaker 7: it sees its economic future acts. And the past twelve

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Speaker 7: months have been undeniably bruising for Rachel Reeves. She has

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Speaker 7: made big bets that last year was the last time

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Speaker 7: she would be putting up taxes. She is now coming

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Speaker 7: back and bected to be doing the same, and I

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Speaker 7: will genuinely be quite curious to see how she ties

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Speaker 7: that together in a narrative of what this labor government

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Speaker 7: is achieving.

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Speaker 2: The budget comes alongside the OBR forecast, as you say,

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Speaker 2: how important is that going to.

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Speaker 7: Be even more than usual? And they have become potemic

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Speaker 7: because now each chancellor has given themselves such limited headroom,

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Speaker 7: Reeves being most of all that the obr's decree on

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Speaker 7: how the economy is looking has now managed to catch

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Speaker 7: out many previous chancellors because we are expecting so many

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Speaker 7: small I says small. I'm talking two to four billion

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Speaker 7: pounds worth of taxes to go up. How the OBR

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Speaker 7: scores all of those will be crucial to how the

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Speaker 7: markets react, and so we will all be paying quite

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Speaker 7: close attention to what the OBR say both when the

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Speaker 7: chancel sits down, they publish their technical documents balls at

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Speaker 7: their press conference later today as well.

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Speaker 2: And the reaction to the budget is something we'll be

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Speaker 2: watching closely. Lots of risks, any rewards.

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Speaker 7: I think survival is a good reward at this point

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Speaker 7: for the Chancellor. She is in a trap of her

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Speaker 7: own making. As the Bloom mixtorial this morning puts out,

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Speaker 7: she's trying to keep on side the public which has

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Speaker 7: seen a massive polling drop, the markets with guilts that

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Speaker 7: are multi decade high, and labor MPs where in the

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Speaker 7: past three weeks we have seen nearly open speculation about

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Speaker 7: replacing the Prime Minister Keir Starmer. So those are the

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Speaker 7: three crucial constituencies to keep this labor government on the road,

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Speaker 7: and there are warning lights in all of them, so

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Speaker 7: she faces a pretty impossible job going into this. However,

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Speaker 7: she is still one of the most powerful partians in

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Speaker 7: the land, with a unheard of majority in Parliament and

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Speaker 7: an ability to make political weather. In this moment, I

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Speaker 7: think this is the test of whether she can actually

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Speaker 7: achieve that and keep the ship on the road mode

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Speaker 7: and bring back economic growth to Britain, a country that

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Speaker 7: has clearly wanted change in this election last year. The

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Speaker 7: chance of rictuer Ease now has to show that she

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Speaker 7: can deliver.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we've already heard from quite a number of constituencies

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Speaker 2: who are concerned, particularly business. It is rare to see

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Speaker 2: the number of business voices that we have seen concerned

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Speaker 2: about what is going to be in the budget. You know,

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Speaker 2: the CBI, the Confederation of British Industry, the British Chambers

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Speaker 2: of Commerce, the hospitality sector, the motor manufacturing sector. They're

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Speaker 2: all deeply concerned about what is going to be in

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Speaker 2: the budget today.

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Speaker 7: There are two problems said that there is no easy

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Speaker 7: way to put up taxes, but if you're going to

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Speaker 7: do it a large measure that affects everyone is a

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Speaker 7: much more enforceable and much more easily measured way that

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Speaker 7: clearly was the thinking. A few weeks out when the

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Speaker 7: Chancellor got up in public on breakfast and gave a

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Speaker 7: speech saying there were tough choices to come. There was

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Speaker 7: then a massive sort of scandal, effectively a few weeks

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Speaker 7: back when it leaked that that was now off the

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Speaker 7: cards and we're seeing a series of smaller measures. The

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Speaker 7: business reaction throughout this process has been if you're coming

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Speaker 7: for a series of smaller measures, you're going to upset

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Speaker 7: small segments of the business community, and we are all

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Speaker 7: going to say that this will hit us uniquely and

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Speaker 7: will set back growth and will affect our hiring. And

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Speaker 7: they have also said that last year you promised us

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Speaker 7: at the CBI's annual conference. I say you, I mean

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Speaker 7: chance for Rachel reeves that she would not put up

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Speaker 7: taxes on business again. And so they regard this as

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Speaker 7: broken promises, and some of them also regard it as

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Speaker 7: bad economics. Whether they are right, the question for the

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Speaker 7: chanswer is politically, could she have survived breaking what would

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Speaker 7: have been a manifesto election pledge? And this is why

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Speaker 7: I come back to this idea that there are no

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Speaker 7: easy choices in this budget, but will the difficult medicine

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Speaker 7: lead to a better economic future for the country and

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Speaker 7: this government. That is the question that it's going to

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Speaker 7: take us more than one day to answer.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, James, thank you so much for being with me.

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Speaker 2: That is Bloomberg's UK Politics reporter James Wilcock, thank you.

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Speaker 5: Stay with us.

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Speaker 2: More from Bloomberg daybakeup coming up after this now sanctions hit,

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Speaker 2: Russia has stepped up its courting of African governments with

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Speaker 2: offers of military cooperation, weapons, grain, fertilizers, and that has

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Speaker 2: extended to phishing and data on fish stocks. Joining us

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Speaker 2: now as senior reporter and Yesca Dsuza in charge of

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Business of Food weekly newsletter and Yesca good to

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Speaker 2: speak to you on this in depth bit of Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: reporting about the quote Great African Expedition. This is a

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Speaker 2: Russian project that's taken a few years to map out

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Speaker 2: Africa's fish resources.

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Speaker 5: What exactly they been doing?

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Speaker 4: Good morning, Thanks very much for having me so. Great

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Speaker 4: African Expedition is a project sanctioned by President Vladimir Puttin

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Speaker 4: to help his African allies map out their fish resources.

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Speaker 4: Fish is a very very important element of many of

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Speaker 4: those countries' economies. It's pretty much a strategic act for them.

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Speaker 4: The data is but at the same time they do

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Speaker 4: not have resources to monitor those stocks on a regular basis,

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Speaker 4: and they need them in order to manage their resources.

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Speaker 5: So Russia offered to help.

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Speaker 4: It's an example of so called scientific diplomacy, something we

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Speaker 4: saw during the Cold War and Russia is reviving it

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Speaker 4: in a way.

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Speaker 2: So then why is Russia interested in fisheries in African

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Speaker 2: and then kind of cooperation in this area of part

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Speaker 2: of a diplomatic purs So in West Africa's also seen

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Speaker 2: a great deal of overfishing, of illegal fishing off the

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Speaker 2: coast of those countries.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right. On the one hand, as they said,

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Speaker 4: it's a soft power tool. But at the same time,

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Speaker 4: Russia hasn't hidden the fact and it has been pretty

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Speaker 4: open about it that they hope to extend cooperation in

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Speaker 4: this area. They hope to actually obtain agreements concessions from

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Speaker 4: those countries in order to fish in those waters. So

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Speaker 4: you know, on the one hand they are assisting, but

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Speaker 4: at the same time they would like to take advantage

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Speaker 4: of some of those resources. Yeah, it's also something that

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Speaker 4: you know, Russia has been you know, it's one of

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Speaker 4: the biggest seafood exporters. It is a source of expert revenue,

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Speaker 4: source of heart currency. So if they and search for

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Speaker 4: new areas to fish, that can definitely help them at

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Speaker 4: the time when sanctions are still in place.

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Speaker 2: And there's been a huge global search, hasn't there in

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Speaker 2: terms of demand for fish products and you know for

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Speaker 2: consumers around the world the consequences though for these African nations,

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Speaker 2: what have you and the team been reporting on there?

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Speaker 4: Yes, indeed it's a very very sensitive location, especially the

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Speaker 4: West African region.

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Speaker 5: Resources there.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's still a very very diverse area in

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Speaker 4: terms of fish species, but at the same time it's

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Speaker 4: not a very well policed place. There are no resources

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Speaker 4: to actually go in the sea and catch illegal.

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Speaker 5: Unregulated fishing.

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Speaker 4: So that area has been the epicenter of illegal, unreported,

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Speaker 4: unregulated fishing, costing these countries billions of dollars in lost

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Speaker 4: revenue and at the same time, you know, the presence

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Speaker 4: of international trollers because essentially it has been a magnet

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Speaker 4: for so many countries to fish in those waters that

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Speaker 4: had consequences and resulted in depleted waters, and that you know,

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Speaker 4: with a result that the prices have gone up, it

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Speaker 4: has affected local food security, and it has affected local employment.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 5: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

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Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day right here

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg day Break Europe.

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Speaker 5: Mm hmm