WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2022 Wimbledon Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:13.119 Check it on Man Now Down Now Friday, June two. 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.160 It is the Meeting the Book podcast. Gil Alexander, thank 0:00:16.200 --> 0:00:20.800 you so much for joining us today for tennis's third 0:00:20.840 --> 0:00:24.640 major of the year, obviously the one on grass, tennis's 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:28.840 shortest surface season, the grass season, but always culminating at 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:33.559 the Championships at Wimbledon, the fortnight at Wimbledon. And what 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.080 I love about doing these tennis pods so much, and 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:38.640 we have committed to an addition to our megapod and 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.479 guessing lines during football season, to doing all the tennis Slams, 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:46.040 because this is for me again the ultimate nirvana, because honestly, 0:00:46.640 --> 0:00:49.040 there are two people on earth that I would like 0:00:49.159 --> 0:00:52.319 to talk about this subject with always and they are 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:54.760 kind enough to join us once again on this podcast 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:59.320 from England. You can follow him on Twitter at Tennis Ratings. 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:03.800 He does gray stuff for Bedfair, the finest tennis handicapper, 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:06.880 to which I owe tons of inspiration for doing it myself. 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:10.480 Dan Weston is with us, fresh off a magical cruise 0:01:10.560 --> 0:01:14.800 through the Mediterranean. How are you doing, Dano? Yeah, I'm good, Gil, Yeah, yeah, 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.839 we did into it. The cruise now ready for within Oh, 0:01:18.680 --> 0:01:20.080 by the way, should I can I say the name 0:01:20.120 --> 0:01:21.560 of the CRUI ship? Should I? Should I give him 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:24.679 a plug free? Feel free? What is it? What is it? 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:26.400 I don't want to batch it the wonder? What is it? 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:33.679 Under the wonder of the seas? Which will be in 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.600 Cape Canaveral, Florida staid in November for those who are interested. 0:01:37.560 --> 0:01:42.399 So the European seasons from from I think May till November, 0:01:42.840 --> 0:01:47.080 and then American season, Credian season from from there once 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.080 for months as well. I love it. A Caribbean season. 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.040 I love that. Sadly, it's in the middle of our 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:55.120 pro football season, so I'm out of luck as as 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:57.960 this gentleman probably is out of luck. The other one 0:01:58.080 --> 0:01:59.920 here that I'd love to talk to about this sub 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:02.720 and others, by the way, which I probably start with you. 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:05.880 Followed on Twitter at Whale Underscore. Kapper is co host 0:02:05.920 --> 0:02:08.679 of both The Deep Dive and NBC Sports at the 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:13.079 Edge podcast, which he does respectively with with his buddies 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.720 with his buddy Andy Molitor and then with Sarah Perlman. 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.520 It is Drew Dinsic. How you doing Drew from his 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:24.320 backyard in Long Bitch. Yeah, no no complaints here. Feeling 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:28.280 great funny as you guys are talking about both, I'm 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:31.040 going boat shopping this hafternoon, so you know it's not 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:34.680 not really what what a what a great what a 0:02:34.720 --> 0:02:38.200 great draft? The NBA draft was unfreaking believable last night. 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:40.440 Best one of the best nights I've had as a 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.120 as a sports better, without question. And um, you know 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.600 what do you do when you when you have a 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:48.320 night like that, you buy a morning you know, you 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.720 get up the next morning you start grinding tennis. That's 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:55.200 right back, right back into the grinds. So let me, 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:56.919 let me explain to people since there's gonna be a 0:02:56.960 --> 0:02:58.440 lot of people who are just too near for tennis. 0:02:58.440 --> 0:03:00.760 And Dana is probably like, wait, what is this? So 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:05.880 last night we had our National Basketball Association Draft, which 0:03:05.960 --> 0:03:10.680 typically from a betting perspective, takes a huge back seat 0:03:10.800 --> 0:03:13.959 to our National Football League draft, which is a betting 0:03:13.960 --> 0:03:16.359 extravaganza for those of us who met that kind of thing. 0:03:17.040 --> 0:03:21.160 And this year's draft. The reason that Drew is beyond 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:25.560 belief happy today and as he mentioned, slightly hungover, uh 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:30.600 is is that this year's draft, which you know, up 0:03:30.680 --> 0:03:32.959 until about a week ago was very quiet, as as 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:36.640 typical then within the last five or six days, there's 0:03:36.680 --> 0:03:40.840 been a there was a monumental move on the person 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:45.200 that uh ultimately did get drafted number one last night. 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.600 But about a week ago he was twenty two one. 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.360 Four days ago he was still double digits, twelve to one, 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:55.080 and then there was this unbelievable dip in his price 0:03:55.480 --> 0:03:57.560 through the Year's name is through the week. His name 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.000 is Paula bun Carol from Duke Ensa. Being the numb 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.600 one pick in the NBA draft goes to Orlando and 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.800 I gave a passionate speech on Mondays to why I 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:07.240 thought he would be the first pick of the draft. 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:12.560 Drew made out like a bandit. Um bet, I'm going 0:04:12.600 --> 0:04:14.640 to guess more than I did on this even and 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:17.039 I've been a lot. Uh. We also have a friend 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.040 Bill cracker Burger who made out big time. But anyway, 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:23.719 it becomes one of the greatest betting case studies and 0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:28.200 results in probably both of our betting lives. It's up there, 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:30.320 it's on them. It's It's one of those ones you'll 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:33.279 remember for years to come, wouldn't you say, Drew, Oh yeah, 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:36.279 without question. It would be like if if the market 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.440 was looking at this Wimbledon field and priced Djokovic at 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:43.320 one like it was at fifty chance. Man, he should 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:45.799 be you know, he should have been. Uh, he should 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:47.880 have been a pick um and you could have got 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:50.560 it at just an absurd price for point on a 0:04:50.560 --> 0:04:52.839 week and it just so happened to be the most 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.279 liquid market in all the draft two, which was just on. 0:04:55.560 --> 0:04:58.040 You know, I don't know that that's going to come 0:04:58.080 --> 0:05:02.000 along again. I hope it is, but yeah, but that, yeah, 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:04.360 that was that was something to be to, something to see. 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:06.719 Guy at Caesar's Sports Books said the market for the 0:05:06.800 --> 0:05:09.839 number one pick in the NBA draft ended up at Caesar's. 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:12.680 I don't know about other books, but at Caesar's ten 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:16.880 times the handle for the NFL draft number one, which 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:20.719 is mind numbing, right, just could you could never have 0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:24.760 predicted that. I definitely wouldn't have had a lost a 0:05:24.760 --> 0:05:28.000 lot of money on that. Yeah, that was an upset anyway, Dan, 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.040 I'm sure this was riveting to you. But otherwise, But 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:36.440 of so, now extra extra extra liquidity in my accounts 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:38.919 to dunk on tennis. So I'm in good shape and 0:05:38.920 --> 0:05:41.040 I have I have old missed this weekend at a 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:45.159 d one in college Baseball for an amount of money 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.160 that will make William Hill notice if I win. Yeah, 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:51.560 let's just put it that way. So between the Warriors, 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:53.920 Bunk Hero and this, this could be the greatest betting 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:56.359 stretch ever. And as you point out, and now there's Wimbledon, 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.400 which real is like, oh my god, and the tennis 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:00.840 tournament hasn't even started, and so let's get to that. 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:03.599 The draws are out. Unlike the last time, Daniel, you 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:05.480 weren't you weren't able to be here for the French draw. 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:09.240 Drew and I were actually doing this podcast while the 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.279 draw came out for the French and if you recall, 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:15.800 that was the draw where it sits Apost basically got 0:06:15.800 --> 0:06:19.560 his own half, and so we were just w we 0:06:19.560 --> 0:06:22.800 were mind blown while this was coming out, this one. 0:06:22.920 --> 0:06:24.719 And let's start on. I want to start on the 0:06:24.720 --> 0:06:27.599 women's side, because I think what I saw today on 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:30.080 the men's draw made trigger to bet for me on 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:31.600 the men's side. But I want to start on the 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:35.160 women's side, where oh you go up, surprise, your surprise. 0:06:35.200 --> 0:06:39.000 We'll see women's side my real quick reaction to the draw, 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:42.360 and and we'll get yours immediately, which is quarter one 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:48.159 with Ega, egas Fiantec pretty favorable for Ega. I have 0:06:48.279 --> 0:06:50.880 a again, a nine to one ticket from the night 0:06:50.920 --> 0:06:53.359 that ash Party retired. I was looking for any stray 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:56.160 Egan French Open numbers. I didn't find any of those, 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:57.839 but I did find a nine to one at Wimbledon. 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:00.760 She's never one on grass before. Her word looks pretty 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:04.760 good to me. Um quarter four going all the way 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.119 to the bottom, I think Maria Soakery should be telling 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.200 herself or her camp should be telling her, Look, we 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.560 should be able to win this. Then I'd say quarter 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:17.360 two going back is a really difficult one. Simona Hallips 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.480 quarter if you will, for lack of a better term, 0:07:19.560 --> 0:07:21.720 is even though she's not seating, it isn't her tournament, 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.080 it isn't it shouldn't be called her quarter. I think 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:26.280 that's a really difficult one. And I think quarter three 0:07:26.320 --> 0:07:28.480 is pretty difficult. I'm curious Dan will start with you 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:33.080 what your reaction was to the women's side. Um, it's 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.720 so interesting because obviously we swear Take just hasn't played 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.400 a lot on gross at all. She hasn't played the 0:07:39.400 --> 0:07:42.080 warm up events, and for me, I think that men 0:07:42.160 --> 0:07:46.480 said a real risk for anyone. Her short prices over 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:49.280 the coming couple of weeks. So I had to look 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:51.440 at the pricess on bat Fair at the moment, and 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:56.360 she's she's two point eight for um, pretty similar rule 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:01.080 and in that cool to one if if you've some threats, 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:05.360 I do think she's had a client drawer for sure. Um. 0:08:05.400 --> 0:08:09.600 Historically on grass, someone like mother will will challenge her, 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:14.960 push her robe akina, maybe at a big price, uh 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:19.120 andre asking potentially uh heck of her. If she's playing 0:08:19.160 --> 0:08:22.360 while unfit, that could be some options for challenging her, 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.920 some tough and tough opposition there potentially, But I think 0:08:25.960 --> 0:08:28.760 she's she's gonna be pretty happy with her draw Yeah. 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.080 And by the way, just let me interject for those 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:35.480 listening American audience listening, Um, when Dan says short prices 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:37.760 by our parlance, what he means is a long price 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:40.960 opposite based on the on the fraction system. But I'm 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.800 with you completely. I think anybody jumping in right now 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:48.480 on ego for the tournament in our bedding parlance plus 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:51.040 one fifty issue, I just don't think you make that bet. 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:53.680 You just don't make that bet. Yeah, what did you 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:56.959 think about what do you think about the Simona Hallip 0:08:58.120 --> 0:09:03.840 quarter number two there. That seems really competitive to me. Yeah, 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:08.000 and interestingly, how has barely played on grass at all 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:10.760 over the last couple of years prior to this year 0:09:10.760 --> 0:09:14.440 where she's she played a couple of warm up events. Um, 0:09:14.480 --> 0:09:17.959 I like, I like Hallett in terms of but she 0:09:18.040 --> 0:09:21.120 actually got pretty good numbers on away from clay this year, 0:09:21.160 --> 0:09:24.760 which is not always the case. But obviously we've got 0:09:24.760 --> 0:09:27.679 the injury doubt on her room from Bad Homburg, so 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:32.040 that's a uh something of a red flag. Although wait 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.600 to see how she she kind of maybe plays in 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:37.600 that first round game against Matova. It was a tough 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:42.360 first round game. If you're going to yeah, yeah she's yeah, 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:45.520 she has she has. Of course Katie Balter has been 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.959 playing very well and that she does have. Amanda and 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:52.760 this Amova perhaps most prominently Coco Golf, who has been 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.080 playing great tennis, is in their Coco Golf, by the way, 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.960 with the exception of a Shapur, the shortest shot beyond 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.600 Igasia Tec and then there's Arena. What do we do 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:03.679 with Serena? Do we have to give her any credence 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:07.679 here going for slam, any any credence at all? Or 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:09.840 is this just a tighter woods on a on the 0:10:09.880 --> 0:10:14.720 wrong course kind of thing now, even though this would 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:18.000 be the right surface for her, I guess bad analogy. Yeah, 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:23.719 I have an opinion on all I'll jump in. Um. 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:26.520 I think the draw was a little not as imbalanced 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.040 as the men's French Open, but I do think all 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:32.320 of the dangerous players outside of onster Boar ended up 0:10:32.320 --> 0:10:36.080 in the top. Um And I think Q two is 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.880 the kind of the quarter of death on the women's straw. 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:42.400 Basically every kind of every player with a high enough 0:10:42.520 --> 0:10:45.559 ceiling to really give it to Ega kind of sitting 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.680 in that Q two. So Ega, if she comes out 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.960 of Q one, it's going to have a very very 0:10:52.040 --> 0:10:56.160 challenging semifinal head to head. Whoever emerges now that player 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:59.079 may have that they may have fired so many bullets 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:01.400 to get there that he can dispatch them and make 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:05.480 a final here. But I shared Dan's concern and skepticism 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:09.760 about EGA's lack of experience on this surface. I don't 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:13.440 think her game especially lends itself to being a strong 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:17.160 grass player. Um. And I think EGA's camp's decision to 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:20.120 have her basically, you know, more or less throw up 0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:24.640 the white flag for grass season was probably strategically good, 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:27.600 like she'll get some reps on grass this year, but 0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:29.840 it's not, you know, she's not going for a calendar 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:32.040 slam or anything. She's going to be the world number 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:37.120 one easily for the next you know year and time, um, 0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:39.640 and so saving up some of her bullets and then 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:42.840 going for a US Open I thought was very very 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.600 you know, potentially, like I'm assuming that's what they're doing. 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:49.320 I thought that was strategically smart because she can, she 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:51.640 can and should be a massive favorite to win the 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:56.720 US open. Um slower hardcore, that's that that should be, uh, 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:58.280 you know you want to you want to run it 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.840 back all the good feelings about how easy was that 0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:03.680 Ego won the French Open, Like, save your bullets for 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:05.839 for the U s Open. I don't think Wimbledon's your 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:10.840 your time to to go after this with aggressiveness. Completely 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.440 agree with that. I am also with Dan that there 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.679 are a number of potential challengers in Q one that 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:18.680 are going to make for tough outs. The one that 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:22.400 I circled for based on price was andrew Esque just 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.680 because she has a slam in her career, like she's 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:30.520 proven that she can find a speed. You know, she's 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:34.040 proven that she can find a level on you know, 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:38.240 in in a slam pressure environment that is good enough 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.120 to be a head to head surely. Uh. And I 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.280 think her price is pretty favorable to come out of 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:45.280 the first quarter and really frankly out of the top 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.680 half because of what we mentioned, like quarter two is 0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:52.760 the quarter of death. Um. Serena, as you kind of 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:55.640 alluded to, is a was sort of the land mine 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.600 in the draw. So whatever quarters she landed in was gonna, 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:00.640 you know, it was gonna automn actually make that a 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.640 challenging quarter. And she had played warm up doubles with 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.360 Bonds Jabor in Eastbourne, but only really played those two matches. 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.280 And I watched a lot of that. I watched a 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:15.120 lot of that tennis and more tennis doubles than I've 0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.760 watched in years, just to try to get some read 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.720 on it. Uh. And Serena looked like she was in 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:26.680 really quite good shape. Um. Not the kind of fitness 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:31.200 level that you can win seven matches over two weeks, 0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:35.199 but at fitness level that she's going to make some 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:39.040 seated player miserable in the in the first week. Um. 0:13:39.320 --> 0:13:43.600 And so I think penciling her into week two is 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.760 not crazy. Uh six one for the tournament is crazy. 0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.320 I don't think you can expect her to be able to, 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:54.160 you know, not play a tournament in a year and 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:57.600 then come in and find form that you know that 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:02.400 that can persist for uh two weeks stretch. Um. So 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:06.080 my general read on Serena is she's gonna upset some 0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.360 players with with with hopes of going deep in this tournament, 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.080 but then ultimately fizzle out in week two. Um. And 0:14:14.440 --> 0:14:17.920 I'm circling Plushkova as a as a you know, a 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.400 victim here. Uh, Coco Golf could be in trouble if 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.080 they meet head to head in a quarterfinal here. But 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.120 Coco Golf again got kind of the worst of the 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.600 draws of anyone who was considered yeah, of anyone who 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:36.440 is considered potentially live outside of the top two. And 0:14:36.720 --> 0:14:39.880 Egan on Coco got the worst of it. And by 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:41.680 the way, I feel the need just to interject this, 0:14:41.720 --> 0:14:43.760 I think I know the answer. But the reason for 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.680 Jabor and Serena pulling out of the doubles effectively was 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.240 a enterbore knee injury. You completely believe that that's just 0:14:51.360 --> 0:14:53.840 the week before Wimbledon. I want to take a few 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:57.640 days off the injury kind of thing. I mean, I hope. Yeah. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:00.800 I got a lot of enterboard and the thirties three 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:06.240 to one range, so I'm hoping that that was precautionary. Um, 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.960 she hasn't shown any signs and anything I watched where 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:15.240 I was concerned about her fitness for sure. Um, but 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:19.280 you never know. I mean I think injury, you know, 0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:21.360 I don't. I don't. We haven't talked much about the 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:24.680 bottom so far. Um, but let me ask you about 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:28.880 that anyway. I was gonna say, you know, injury. Injury 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.360 scares me more than anyone she has to run into 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.720 between here in the final. Oh so that's interesting because 0:15:33.760 --> 0:15:35.440 because I was I'm just gonna throw out some names 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.440 in her draw and I'll get you and you're you're 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:41.000 showing no fear whatsoever. But I'll just throw out some names. 0:15:41.400 --> 0:15:48.400 Danielle freaking college not not no no fear, a little 0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.360 bit of should give her a match, keys can keys 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:53.680 can make a quarterfinal, but I think she ultimately gets 0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.360 beaten straights. Yeah. Now we we have a bit of 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.680 a different opinion on Emma rad Oukanu. You do not 0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:03.640 believe her to be a threat. I don't know. I 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:09.200 mean it's the same she's obviously she kind of came 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.520 burst onto the scene at Wimbledon last year. People remember 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.560 her US Open title run, but her Wimbledon run was 0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:20.120 pretty special, and she gave Ego. Ego, by the way, 0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.120 who's won thirty five matches in a row, I should 0:16:22.160 --> 0:16:25.560 point out fifty two, fifty four sets, six titles this year. 0:16:26.040 --> 0:16:28.960 Emma gave Ego pretty good match. People remember samson Ova 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.880 taking a set off of Ega, but Emma was pretty 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:36.680 pretty freaking good in that match, and I remember being impressed, like, Okay, 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:39.280 maybe this isn't some blip. By the way, the one name, 0:16:39.800 --> 0:16:41.280 the one name that I haven't mentioned in the draw, 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.600 which is probably the biggest one if you go into 0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:47.120 her data, her grass court data, and again grass court 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.720 data not as robust as other services, but Angelique Kerber 0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:52.600 and I think you've pointed this out as well, Drew, 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:55.160 and we'll bring in Dan for this as well. Her 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:58.320 grass court numbers twelve months, six month, however you slice it, 0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.240 our spec tack killer, Dan, I'm not sure how you 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:06.080 feel about any of these threats. Of all, I agree 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:08.960 with Drew and that and that injury I think is 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.720 the biggest threat to jabb And it's interesting to see 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.879 that on the bet fair market her price is now 0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:20.359 the lowest that it's ever been, So the betfair market 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.920 is not remotely spooked about this injury issue at all. 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:29.200 She's she's been well supported and and so they're not concerned. 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:33.480 I think, yeah, Peak Curber, you would, you would say 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.560 probably would be a bigger threat than most in that 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:44.720 third third quarter. I am also on the anti Rabicanu position. Um, 0:17:44.760 --> 0:17:48.000 I just can't get behind the player who has has 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:52.960 one of service points on hard or indoor hard this season. 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:58.639 That's just that's just nowhere near good enough. And what 0:17:58.720 --> 0:18:01.160 do you need to do well on gross? You've gotta 0:18:01.200 --> 0:18:04.320 serve well, you've gotta sound consistently, and I think it's 0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:06.399 asking a great deal of her to to turn that 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:12.000 around in a short term bottom draw, bottom bottom quarter. 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:15.199 Do you agree with what I said about this earlier 0:18:15.240 --> 0:18:17.320 is that if I'm if I'm a Ria Saceres camp 0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.080 and she has not had a tremendous stretch here of 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:24.240 tennis of late, and I'm like, okay, well there is 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:27.359 Blenda bench itch. If I've got the right draw here 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.679 and a Contumatacy is the high seat in that in 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:34.000 that quarter, in that quarter. But Blenda bench Itch is 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:38.240 in there, Beatrice Haddad Maya my girl Drew Uh, she's 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:40.919 seasoned there as well, and she has just had a 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:45.520 spectacular run. Uh. And then Elena Stapenco can't be uh 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.600 can't be overlooked either. But if I'm if, I'm Maria 0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.480 Saces girl, I mean, isn't this like okay, like all 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:55.000 these players, if you're if you are as good as 0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.640 you as we think you are, shouldn't she get out 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.200 of this? Or or is she just not that good 0:19:00.240 --> 0:19:04.320 enough to do that. I'm gonna go with the I 0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:08.160 don't mind putting a line through Saccary and contivate here. 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:10.560 Your top two seeds in this draw to me are 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:16.080 upset special candidates. Um Zachary is a weird one because 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.479 for all of her tools, all of her strength, she 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:21.640 should be one of the best grass players on tour, 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:25.480 but it just has never manifest And she also has 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.720 this weird thing going where the further she goes into 0:19:28.720 --> 0:19:31.640 these slam tournaments, the more the pressure builds, the more 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.320 likely she is to come, you know, to to succumb 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:38.160 to the to the pressure. And that's not to say 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:42.400 things couldn't break well for her here or gets hurt 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:44.800 all of a sudden, you know, saccary uh you know, 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:47.679 comes through with an easier path than expected to a 0:19:47.720 --> 0:19:51.320 final and faces someone who is either battle weary, will 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:54.640 be on battle warn or or just you know, not 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:57.720 ready for the moment like she could win. Sure, there's 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:01.760 not it's not crazy, but m M, I guess if 0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:03.960 Zachary wins this title, I'm gonna lose a lot of 0:20:03.960 --> 0:20:07.320 money betting against her in the later stages, surely, just 0:20:07.359 --> 0:20:11.080 because I'm gonna be expecting her to ultimately capitulate. She's 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:13.280 done it every time she's been there. True, you have 0:20:13.480 --> 0:20:15.320 you have your board at thirty three to one, as 0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:20.119 I recall, yes, yeah, and I again kind of the 0:20:20.200 --> 0:20:24.480 Cerber comment, So okay, let's just pretend that something happens 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:28.240 is your board. Kerber is my immediate favorite to win 0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:32.119 Q three, like, no question, no question for me, And 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:34.640 it was a shame she got put where she got 0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:38.080 put up against your board in round four potentially, and 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.159 that should be a really good match. Kerber's got the 0:20:41.240 --> 0:20:44.320 experience on grass, which is something that takes years and 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:46.959 years of playing on grass to get and she has 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:49.159 proven that she can get it done on grass. Her 0:20:49.200 --> 0:20:51.360 game and you know, sure her grass game is awesome. 0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:56.320 Her loss to Alisa Corne was weird. I don't know 0:20:56.440 --> 0:20:58.679 what happened there. I don't know if she didn't really 0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:01.560 like if she wasn't really into that match, didn't feel 0:21:01.600 --> 0:21:03.520 like she needed it anymore, she was ready to kind 0:21:03.520 --> 0:21:05.760 of move on to Wimbledon or what. But I thought 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:09.240 she was gonna win that Homburg. Frankly, that win the 0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:14.640 whole tournament. Um, So to see her go out was strange. Um, 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:16.440 but I don't know that that's a red flag. I 0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:20.320 think ultimately Cerber goes down to Jabor and I think, uh, 0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:24.199 but I think, let's say it's Sacchary Kerber as a 0:21:24.240 --> 0:21:26.800 semi final. Just for the purpose of making a price, 0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:30.840 I would I would personally bet Cerber at any dog 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:34.399 price there. Um. I think I would make her a 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.720 decent favorite over Sachary at that stage of a tournament 0:21:37.760 --> 0:21:45.399 like this, Oh dog approves okay, yeah, dog likes the 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:48.399 other dog. And that's if that's where you get. I 0:21:48.440 --> 0:21:50.640 don't know, I mean, maybe maybe Dan, do you have 0:21:50.800 --> 0:21:54.159 a different opinion on Zachary's chances. Yeah, yes and no, 0:21:54.640 --> 0:21:58.480 Um yeah, I can go with you certainly for the 0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:03.320 latter stages. But she has like probably the biggest gift 0:22:03.640 --> 0:22:07.400 first week that you could ever wish to see. And 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:11.880 you look at Q four and you think, Okay, ustr 0:22:11.960 --> 0:22:17.359 Penco ben Chitch had admyre conservation. Who hasn't played a 0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:23.160 glass warm up event at all? Ben Chit has been injured. Um, 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:26.960 there's there's a few if spots and maybe he's around 0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:30.440 a lot of the guys in that quarter. And I think, 0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.200 if you're looking at this key four, this is the 0:22:34.280 --> 0:22:37.240 quarter where maybe it could open up for somebody and 0:22:37.400 --> 0:22:39.440 she might not actually have to play anyone half decent 0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:42.879