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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining. Just go show

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Speaker 1: me up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket's the.

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Speaker 1: Through for the wind.

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Speaker 2: God make a miracle.

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Speaker 1: I'd up the water. Hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. I'm Mike

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Speaker 1: Caliber's joined today by Tanner McGrath. Stuckey is getting a

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Speaker 1: much needed day off. He'll be back on Thursday. One

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Speaker 1: other programming note for all of you hoping to hear

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Speaker 1: our lovely voices on our Saturday live show a week

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Speaker 1: from Saturday, will be the first episode of the season,

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Speaker 1: February twenty second, so be sure to tune in in

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Speaker 1: the morning. It will be streaming through our YouTube channel,

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Speaker 1: and that's where we're going to go through and give

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Speaker 1: out our live picks to look at the future's market,

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Speaker 1: last bits of news, injuries availability, some of those steam reports.

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Speaker 1: You know where the money is moving. That percentage is

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Speaker 1: all those great things to help you get into black

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Speaker 1: on those huge college basketball Saturdays. Now you know the

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Speaker 1: NFL is over. Football is done. The eyes of a

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Speaker 1: weary gambling nation turned to the college hardwood which is

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Speaker 1: why I'm so thrilled to be joined by Tanner McGrath

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Speaker 1: because we're going to get into the weeds for this episode.

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Speaker 1: We're going to give out more picks than we have

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Speaker 1: in any episode this year, and you know, at least

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Speaker 1: in terms of a per man per basis in terms

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Speaker 1: of how many pets we're throwing out there. We're going

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Speaker 1: to skip past the rants and what was positive and

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Speaker 1: just focus on six of the biggest games on Wednesday

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Speaker 1: and Thursday. Then get to our best bets. And I'm

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Speaker 1: also going to throw in some player props and see

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Speaker 1: Tanner's reaction to that by the end of the episode

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Speaker 1: as well. Tanner, how you doing. Do you feel the

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Speaker 1: pressure of the two man game here? Do you think

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Speaker 1: we can go Danny Wolf flat Golden and give a

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Speaker 1: little two man weave and fill the StatSheet.

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Speaker 2: I'm just thrilled that football is over and we can

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Speaker 2: actually focus on what's important, and that's college basketball and March.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, now I'm thrilled. Let's get into it, all right.

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Speaker 1: So I mentioned at the top, we're going to go

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Speaker 1: through some of the market game, just some high level

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Speaker 1: thoughts that we have plays leads will throw them out there.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with Villanova Saint John's. Everywhere you turn at

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Speaker 1: this point for the Johnnies, every stat every chiron on

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Speaker 1: the screen is They've done this for the first time

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Speaker 1: since ninety nine, since eighty five, since Chris Mallin did this.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, this team, it seems like the

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Speaker 1: ceiling appears to be final four. What they did against

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Speaker 1: Yukon in crunch time, I think was a testament both

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Speaker 1: to the coaching staff. That final play that they drew

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Speaker 1: up on the baseline, needing to extend that lead from

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Speaker 1: a single possession to two, to seal it away, getting

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Speaker 1: that wide open mid range jumper, it was a thing

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Speaker 1: of beauty. They clearly they know where they are and

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Speaker 1: they know where they're not. They are a defensive team

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Speaker 1: who can just squeeze the life out of you. They're

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Speaker 1: not a very good shooting team, but it seems as

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Speaker 1: though they've embraced that, Hey, you're allowed to take jump

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Speaker 1: shots inside the three point arc, why don't we just

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Speaker 1: go ahead and do that because it seems like we're

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Speaker 1: pretty good at it. And it's not a passing of

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Speaker 1: the torch, particularly when it's Rick Patino. The elder statesman

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Speaker 1: in all of college basketball this season. But it does

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Speaker 1: seem for the first time in years that Hurley has

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Speaker 1: been surpassed in terms of coaching acumen within the Big East.

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Speaker 1: So all that being said, is this a letdown spot

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Speaker 1: against Villanova?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you wonder if the Johnnys are overvalued,

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Speaker 2: but I don't know. I mean, they're They've been great

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Speaker 2: on the road this year. They're eighth and HAZL metrics

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Speaker 2: away from home metric. Villanova might be due for the

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Speaker 2: letdown if anything. I mean, they just had wins over

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Speaker 2: Xavier de paul by shooting nineteen for thirty nine from

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Speaker 2: three forty eight percent. In theory, Nova's like relentless underscreening

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Speaker 2: in the half court and just great ball handling and

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Speaker 2: transition defense should give the Johnny's up tempo and tier

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Speaker 2: based offense some issues, and it sort of did in

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Speaker 2: the first head to head matchup between these two. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Saint John's shop forty percent from the floor, they were

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Speaker 2: held under the one point per possession threshold, and Villanova's

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Speaker 2: five out motion offense could exploit a dribble pit, penetration, denial,

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Speaker 2: gap denial, matchup zone defense that is vulnerable against solid

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Speaker 2: spacing and shot making. I mean, the Johnny's rank three

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty six naturally in low quality three's for

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Speaker 2: us per shot quality. And that sort of happened in

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Speaker 2: the first head to head matchup between these two as well.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Villanova had twenty points on eighteen catch and

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Speaker 2: shoot jumpers. They shot ten for twenty six from three.

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Speaker 2: But how did the Johnnys win games? I mean, you

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Speaker 2: mentioned it right, They just they play suffocating defense. They

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Speaker 2: now ranked second and ken Bum's adjusted efficiency the defensive

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Speaker 2: efficiency by the way, and they dominate the shot volume battle.

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Speaker 2: They lead the bigger East in field goal attempt differential.

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Speaker 2: So how do they win the first matchup by twelve?

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Speaker 2: On the road, they held Villanova or so sorry sorry.

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Speaker 2: At home, they held Villanova to forty percent two point

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Speaker 2: shooting and scored fifteen second chance points on seventeen offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 2: But the real key to this rematch is that Saint

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Speaker 2: John's got to the line forty times in that matchup.

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Speaker 2: They had a seventy one percent free throw rate, which

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Speaker 2: is stupid. I mean, Villanova can foul a bit much.

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Speaker 2: They're you know, they're but they're like Nation average. I think, well,

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Speaker 2: the Johnny's rank fifth in the Big East in free

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Speaker 2: throw rate, so I don't know. If Villanova gets a

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Speaker 2: friendlier whistle at home, you'd think the Wildcats can hang

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Speaker 2: in this game. If anything, I'd look towards under schematic matchup.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it is super offensive friendly on each side,

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Speaker 2: especially if Villanova controls the pace and shoots average from three.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the first matchup went over by the two

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Speaker 2: points on the closing line, despite the Johnny shooting forty

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Speaker 2: free throws. So that's where I would look, you know,

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Speaker 2: if anything, for our next.

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Speaker 1: Game, Mazoo against Oklahoma. The Tigers one of the stories

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Speaker 1: in all of college basketball, certainly in the SEC. Surprising.

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Speaker 1: They jump out to a seventeen and four start to

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Speaker 1: the season, six and two in SEC play, but they've

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Speaker 1: dropped two in a row, both compelling games against Tennessee

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Speaker 1: by four against Texas A and m at home by

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Speaker 1: a three point margin. Has anything changed for you with

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Speaker 1: the Tigers? I mean, those are I know we don't

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Speaker 1: like to get two carried away with this, but those

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Speaker 1: are quality losses to quality teams that are going to

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Speaker 1: be flirting with, you know, top three Seeds come March madness,

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Speaker 1: So no shame in dropping narrow games against them, But

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Speaker 1: does anything change in terms of your evaluation of the Tigers?

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Speaker 1: And do you think this is a play on against a

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Speaker 1: Sooner team that has been boom or busts to put

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Speaker 1: it lightly this season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Miszoo was probably I don't know what

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Speaker 2: you think, like maybe flying a little too close to

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Speaker 2: the sun before. I think they were due for a

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Speaker 2: few losses. I do think that this is Miszoo or

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Speaker 2: nothing here. And the reason why is that Oklahoma is

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Speaker 2: just kind of your downhill driving, ballscreen centric attack behind

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Speaker 2: the super impressive Jeremiah Fears, while Maszoo is more of

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Speaker 2: a secondary motion based offense. They run a lot of

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Speaker 2: stagger screens in the perimeter, excellent spacing shot selection squad.

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Speaker 2: But Miszoo is a switch everything ISO funneling defense and

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Speaker 2: they've been elite in ball screen coverage and rim protection.

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Speaker 2: Well Oklahoma, I think Oklahoma actually is getting a little

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Speaker 2: lucky from three on defense. They allow a high volume

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Speaker 2: of threes and I think they're a little bit vulnerable

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Speaker 2: there and I think Miszoo should be able to run

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Speaker 2: their offense and the bigger issue in this game for

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Speaker 2: me is that Fears, like so many Frosh guards, keeps

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Speaker 2: starting the ball over and the Sooners are getting obliterated

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Speaker 2: on the glass both ways, while Miszoo will throw in

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Speaker 2: some trapping zone pressure and they're a really tough team

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Speaker 2: on the glass. I don't know if you've noticed this,

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Speaker 2: but this Gates seems much tougher than his past ones,

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Speaker 2: So I think the Tiger should just obliterate the shot

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Speaker 2: volume battle. So I really lean Mazoo here. I just

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Speaker 2: Moser is typically a good dog to back. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's hit like fifty three percent as an underdog in

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Speaker 2: his career with the Sooners. I think he's sixty nine

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Speaker 2: and sixty one against the spread as a road dog

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Speaker 2: with the Sooners, So that'll likely keep me away. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: missour or nothing.

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Speaker 1: This next one is a hat tip to one of

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Speaker 1: our favorite leagues, the SoCon at the mid major ranks

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Speaker 1: Chattanooga and Sanford. I believe they're what first and third

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Speaker 1: in the conference standings. This is going to go a

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Speaker 1: long way in determining who the regular season champ is.

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Speaker 1: Do you have any lean here between the Mocks and

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Speaker 1: the old Buckey ball.

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Speaker 2: So it's actually a three way tie in the sookon

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Speaker 2: right now across the top Sanford, Chattanooga, and Greensburg plus

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Speaker 2: East Tennessee State's eight and four. I got a question

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Speaker 2: for you. First, among those four, which one would you

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Speaker 2: trust in the tournament setting the most.

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna go Samford in terms of that

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Speaker 1: packing order. I mean, there's a lot to light it

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Speaker 1: about Chattanooga that it's been a program that I've backed

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Speaker 1: on numerous occasions in recent years. I mean they came

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Speaker 1: what was an a Malachi Smith floater away from making

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Speaker 1: it out of the first rounds what three or four

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Speaker 1: seasons ago. So this is a team that is not

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Speaker 1: new money in terms of being competitive in the SoCon,

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Speaker 1: but for this particular game, it's a stay away. I

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Speaker 1: prefer to kind of pick my spots when it comes

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Speaker 1: submitted low major basketball. I think there's you know, situational

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Speaker 1: angles that don't get reported, and it Stuck loves to say,

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Speaker 1: you get taxed in these situational spots. Fewer and fewer

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Speaker 1: of those situational taxes as you move your way down

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Speaker 1: the car to the bottom of the barrel. So this

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Speaker 1: is where you know in terms of SoCon basketball, this

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Speaker 1: is the best of the best. So I think this

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Speaker 1: line is, you know, probably going to be pretty height

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Speaker 1: And I don't necessarily have a take in terms of

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Speaker 1: who's going to win against the spread or even outright

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Speaker 1: in this spot, but I know that you wanted to

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Speaker 1: add it to the card to discuss it, so I'd

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Speaker 1: love to hear your take.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you said like spot tax. Well, you know,

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Speaker 2: Sanford coming off the lost to East Tennessee State, I

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Speaker 2: wonder if that line's going to get steamed up. And

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Speaker 2: I because I kind of like the mocks here, and

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Speaker 2: the reason why I wouldn't trust Sandford I think in

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Speaker 2: the tournament is that I just think that they are

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Speaker 2: really mortal when they're not turning teams over and hitting

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Speaker 2: a million threes, right, And I think Chattanooga can avoid

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Speaker 2: both those outcomes. And look, the Mox just look a

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Speaker 2: lot better lately. They've just been playing really good basketball.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they look drunk for half of an noncon

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Speaker 2: and everything really fell apart in that season conference season

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Speaker 2: opening loss to Mercer, but they've won seven of eight since.

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Speaker 2: Huff Bonham and Wyland is superstar backcourt. I mean, the

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Speaker 2: only loss during the stretch actually came against the Sanford Bulldogs,

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Speaker 2: who rallied from down sixteen to win by four in Chattanooga,

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Speaker 2: But they really only won because the Mox shot five

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Speaker 2: for twenty six from three nineteen percent bottom and Huff

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Speaker 2: went two for thirteen Combined. Shot Quality actually graded it

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Speaker 2: as like an analytical expected win for the Mox, a

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Speaker 2: fifteen point win, And I think it's easy to see why.

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Speaker 2: Like the Mocks, they had an offshooting night, but there

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Speaker 2: are typically an elite press and zone offense. They turned

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Speaker 2: the ball over at the lowest rate in the SoCon

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Speaker 2: they are elite and catch and shoot creation, and they're

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Speaker 2: awesomet cutting, which is so all of those things is

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Speaker 2: how you beat the Bucky ball zone traps in press right,

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Speaker 2: you can beat Sanford's defense by cutting behind the press

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Speaker 2: and shooting over the top. Meanwhile, on the other end

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Speaker 2: of the court, Chattanooga is an elite transition denial defense,

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Speaker 2: probably because they don't turn the ball over, can't They

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Speaker 2: don't give any opportunities away. In the first head to

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Speaker 2: head matchup between these two, they held the Bulldogs to

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Speaker 2: seven transition possessions. They Sanford scored five points on those

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Speaker 2: that's like impossible, and Sanford's you know rim and three

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Speaker 2: heavy offense. Chattanooga has been a good rim and three defense.

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Speaker 2: They ranked top three in the soakon a top one

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Speaker 2: hundred overall in both rim and three rate and points

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Speaker 2: per possession allowed. And they've been really good in catching

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Speaker 2: shoot dial, which again super important against Stanford. This handicap

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Speaker 2: is very similar to when I bet Furman against Samford

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Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. I think six points is

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Speaker 2: way too many. I think that if Chattanooga can you know,

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Speaker 2: hit a few more triples in the rematch, I think

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Speaker 2: that this could be much closer. Sorry, kempom has this

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Speaker 2: at six and I think that would be way too many.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, if Chattanuga just hit a few more threes,

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Speaker 2: I think they have everything here to keep up. And plus,

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Speaker 2: the mocks are top fifteen haslometrics away from home metrics,

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Speaker 2: so I like the MOCKX.

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Speaker 1: We turn our attention to the Thursday card, the Dons

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Speaker 1: of San Francisco playing Gonzaga. The Bulldogs now all the

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Speaker 1: way down to a nine seeded in bracket matrix. This

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Speaker 1: feels like one of those games if the Zags were

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Speaker 1: to drop it. All of a sudden, they're on bubble watch.

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Speaker 1: It becomes vital down the street to essentially win out,

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Speaker 1: to feel as though you're a stable at large bid

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Speaker 1: or then the pressure just slides to the West Coast

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Speaker 1: Conference tournament, needing to grab an automatic berth Am I

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Speaker 1: overstating what this means to a mark Few team that

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Speaker 1: at least back in November we all kind of assumed

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Speaker 1: when they were humming offensively, this is the same exact team,

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Speaker 1: you know, different moving parts and some different strengths and

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Speaker 1: graham Ek on the little block, you know, that slows

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Speaker 1: them down a little bit. But other than that, we

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Speaker 1: can just expect, you know, business as usual out of Spokane.

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Speaker 1: It's clearly not the case. But how far have they slipped?

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Speaker 1: In your opinion, is this spot to play the Dons?

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Speaker 1: And if so, do you think we're going to end

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Speaker 1: up seeing an n T mark Few for the first

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Speaker 1: time in what twenty five years?

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Speaker 2: I mean, the thing is Kenzag has been pretty unlucky.

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Speaker 2: I think stats by will I got as a good

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Speaker 2: follow on Twitter had a great article on this recently,

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Speaker 2: and it's basically they've been unlucky in a few crunch

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Speaker 2: time performances. I mean, let's say they flip the overtime

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Speaker 2: game against Oregon State, the away game at UCLA where

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Speaker 2: they lost by three, and they flip one of the

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Speaker 2: two overtime losses to Kentucky or West Virginia. They're twenty

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Speaker 2: and four with a much better resume. They're probably a

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Speaker 2: lock for the tournament. I mean, I think that I

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Speaker 2: think that for the first time Everganzaga might be a

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Speaker 2: little bit undervalue just because of some unfortunate close game variants.

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Speaker 2: On the flip side, San Francisco's defense I think is

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Speaker 2: pretty overvalued. Conference opponents have shot twenty five percent from three,

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Speaker 2: including sixteen for eighty two during this most recent four

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Speaker 2: game winning streak, it's nineteen percent. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: they're interior defense is getting ripped to shreds. They're what

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Speaker 2: tenth in the West Coast in two point defense opponents

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Speaker 2: getting the win to getting to the rim nearly twenty

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Speaker 2: two times per game seven percent. Tile. You can look

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Speaker 2: at both of the Saint Mary's matchups where I know

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Speaker 2: they won the second one, but I think Saint Mary's

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Speaker 2: scored a combined seventy eight points at the rim, which

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Speaker 2: is just crazy. And what do I look for when

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Speaker 2: I'm looking to fade. Gonzaga is good posting, rolling, cutting

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Speaker 2: defenses that hang at the rim, and San Francisco's not that.

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Speaker 2: Of course, on the flip side, San Francisco is a

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Speaker 2: borderline elite transition defense, so it's so important to keep

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Speaker 2: Gonzaga out of the open court while turning them into

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Speaker 2: jump shooters. I think that they can maybe do half

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Speaker 2: of that. I'd wonder if Girl of Sien would maybe

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Speaker 2: bust out some zone, but the Zags are a great

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Speaker 2: zone offense with their you know, kind of playmaking forwards.

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Speaker 2: On the other end of the court, the Dons are

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Speaker 2: a big jump shot reliant offense, especially in like kind

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Speaker 2: of the pick and pop handoff isolation game, and I

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Speaker 2: do wonder if Gonzaga is a little bit vulnerable against that.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they allow a lot of threes. I think

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Speaker 2: you're able to move ek around, make them defend in space,

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Speaker 2: and he get switches and they're a bad isolation defense.

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Speaker 2: I think, if anything, I don't know what you think

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Speaker 2: about this, but I might play over. I think the

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Speaker 2: last two matchups between these two have gone over and

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Speaker 2: I just you know, San Francisco's I think their defense

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Speaker 2: is super overvalued. I think they're soft on the interior.

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Speaker 2: The number would have to be right, and the don

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Speaker 2: would have to hit their threes, which I think they could,

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Speaker 2: and the Zags would also have to speed the Dons

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Speaker 2: up because San Francisco likes to play a little bit slower.

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Speaker 2: But I think that they could do that because the

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Speaker 2: Dons have not been a great ball handling team and

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Speaker 2: conference play which might give you know, good Zaga a

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Speaker 2: few more of those easy run out buckets if anything,

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Speaker 2: I'd look over. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the downy, soft interior defense from San Francisco really

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Speaker 1: screams to me a huge game opportunity for ek And

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Speaker 1: beyond just the open looks and the Mattador defense in

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Speaker 1: the lane, there's less of a likelihood he's going to

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Speaker 1: get himself into foul trouble, you know, getting swarmed, catching

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Speaker 1: somebody with an elbow, picking up an offensive foul. So

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Speaker 1: in terms of a look, I like the over there

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Speaker 1: as well. It turns the big ten. Now Maryland traveling

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Speaker 1: to Nebraska. Nebraska seemingly has turned around. I think they've

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Speaker 1: won four or five in a row, and they've at

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Speaker 1: least dating back to last year had a formidable home

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Speaker 1: court advantage. This game, though, speaks to is Maryland, at

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Speaker 1: least in my opinion, is Maryland ready to take that

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Speaker 1: jump and to be not just a good story in

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Speaker 1: the Big Ten, but a threat when they get to

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis for the Big Ten tournaments and then come tournament

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Speaker 1: time to be able to win basically no matter where

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Speaker 1: they get sent. In terms of pods, I know that,

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Speaker 1: you know, Mick Cronin isn't the only one who's been

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Speaker 1: complaining about travel this year in the Big Ten. But

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Speaker 1: when it comes to the NCAA tournament, you know, there's

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Speaker 1: winners and losers every single selection Sunday. In terms of

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Speaker 1: where you get set, you need to be able to

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Speaker 1: win anywhere and to go halfway across the country into

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Speaker 1: a hostile territory against a team that's hot. I want

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Speaker 1: to see the Big three of Reese, of Queen of

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Speaker 1: Gillespie really turn it on and show me something. I'm

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Speaker 1: a believer in the Terps. Certainly this pod has been

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Speaker 1: you know, we we've bought them to make the final four.

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Speaker 1: We've bought them really since early in the season when

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Speaker 1: Queen is playing at a high level to be potentially

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Speaker 1: a lottery pick in the NBA as well. All the

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Speaker 1: components are there. This just really feels like one of

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Speaker 1: those games where if they're for real, they're either going

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Speaker 1: to win or they're going to lose at the bell.

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Speaker 1: But if they you know, kind of lay up an

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Speaker 1: egg in the spot and lose by eight to ten points,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to pull back my expectations a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Am I overstating how important this is really for both

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Speaker 1: of them? Because another win for the Corn and all,

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Speaker 1: like they're not playing their way onto the bubble, but

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Speaker 1: certainly a season that looks like it was headed for

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Speaker 1: lost territory has now been reclaimed by Hoyburg.

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Speaker 2: I think you are overstating it a little bit, actually,

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Speaker 2: mainly because I mean, first, I can't get a goddamn

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Speaker 2: Reid on this Nebraska team. Yeah, what, they lost four

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Speaker 2: in a row and all must wins and then all

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Speaker 2: of a sudden they've won four in a row. But Maryland, dude,

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Speaker 2: I love this turf squad. I think they're super dynamic

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Speaker 2: on offense, and I think they're a pretty good defense.

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Speaker 2: I think they have sort of all the tools that

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Speaker 2: you need to make a deep run in the tournament.

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Speaker 2: I like that they have a lot of interior scoring

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Speaker 2: with the three big guys that he talked about. But

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Speaker 2: also Gillespie is a fantastic ball screen orchestrator, and I

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Speaker 2: think that's really, you know, important to have guard play

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Speaker 2: obviously in March. But the reason why I think it's

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Speaker 2: overstated is that I bet corn and the under and

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Speaker 2: the first matchup between these two, and I'll probably do

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Speaker 2: it again here. I think the matchup's just bad for Maryland,

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Speaker 2: and the reason why is Nebraska is complete and total

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Speaker 2: post denial defense. They take away the post at all

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Speaker 2: costs against Maryland's post reliant offense with Queen and Reeese,

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Speaker 2: and Nebraska is set into your ballscreen coverage against Jillspe's

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Speaker 2: ballscreen creation. I mean, to beat Nebraska, you have to

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Speaker 2: do it with floor spacing and effective secondary catch and

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Speaker 2: shoot creation, which is why you know they probably they

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Speaker 2: lost five in a row because those teams shot like

390
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Speaker 2: forty percent from three. But Maryland doesn't do that. They

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Speaker 2: don't create secondary catch and shoot stuff. They just want

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Speaker 2: to work through the post and get to the rim. Nebraska,

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Speaker 2: on the other hand, I don't know if they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to run their dribble handoff based offense. Maryland

395
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:39,320
Speaker 2: is a really good DHO defense and the Nebraska offense

396
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Speaker 2: is so limited to just Bryce Williams shot creation. But

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Speaker 2: Maryland won the first head to head matchup by three

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Speaker 2: despite shooting ten for twenty five from three to forty percent.

399
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Speaker 2: I don't think I expect that to happen again. And

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Speaker 2: Maryland is also a very questionable road team three hundred

401
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Speaker 2: and fifty third and has elemetrics away from home metric

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Speaker 2: I like Nebraska and the under again.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's close up this segment of must watch

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Speaker 1: games on the Thursday card, Charleston against UNC Wilmington. Tell

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Speaker 1: me why this CAA matchup is can't miss so.

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Speaker 2: Top heavy CIA. Right now, You've Gotson's.

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Speaker 1: Eleven and one.

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Speaker 2: That's an understatement for sure, Yeah, yeah, yeah, Talson's eleven

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Speaker 2: and one, Willington's ten and two, Charleston's nine and three,

410
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Speaker 2: Campbell's nine and three. That's a surprising one, and then

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Speaker 2: william Mary's eight and four. Those are five really good teams.

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Speaker 2: And now you got two and three facing off, I

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Speaker 2: believe if I remember correctly, Yeah, Wilmington won the first

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Speaker 2: match up between these two on the road by two.

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Speaker 2: I do think that Wilmington. By the way, I love

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Speaker 2: all these teams. These are so five really fun teams.

417
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Speaker 2: Like you know, uptep on offense is really fun to watch.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you guys watch Charleston forever. They still run

419
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:54,320
Speaker 2: a lot of the same stuff they did with Kelsey,

420
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Speaker 2: but Wilmington's a great transition offense. They're good in the post.

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Speaker 2: William and Mary shoots the lights out like just a

422
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Speaker 2: lot of on teams in the CIA. I do think

423
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Speaker 2: that Wilmington's offense is a little overvalued and do for

424
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Speaker 2: some regression because I think they're shooting hot from three

425
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Speaker 2: and you know, shot Quality graded their two point head

426
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Speaker 2: to head win over Charleston as an analytically expected loss.

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Speaker 2: You have to stop Wilmington in the post. Like I said,

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Speaker 2: they are elite in post creation. The Cougars didn't do

429
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 2: that in the first matchup. They allowed twenty points on

430
00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 2: eighteen post upsets. But they're typically an elite post up defense.

431
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:33,439
Speaker 2: Brizovich is a really good post up defender, and on

432
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 2: the other end of the court, Charleston runs all their

433
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:39,760
Speaker 2: offense through Brizovich on posts and rolls, and Charleston just

434
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,439
Speaker 2: obliterated Wilmington on ball screens. In that much up, they

435
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 2: scored forty two points on thirty five. Brizovich scored sixteen

436
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,439
Speaker 2: points in total. But Charleston also scored zero points on

437
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 2: seven post upsets, which I don't think will happen again.

438
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,239
Speaker 2: Wilmington is a good ball screen coverage defense, but it's

439
00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 2: much more average throan the post. My one worry, obviously

440
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,439
Speaker 2: is that Wilmington eats in transition again and gets a

441
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 2: bad Charleston transition defense. But the Seahawks scored nineteen points

442
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: off turnovers in the first matchup to the Cougars nine,

443
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 2: which doesn't make sense. What do you consider that Charleston

444
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 2: is actually a really good ball handling team that can

445
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:16,160
Speaker 2: handle the press, while Wilmington has run into a huge

446
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,280
Speaker 2: turnover problem lately. They're now tenth in the league in

447
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,000
Speaker 2: turnover eight and they've recorded forty one over their past

448
00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: three games, including sixteen in the last matchup against Drexel.

449
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: So I guess my handicap on this one is that

450
00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:31,679
Speaker 2: overall net net, I think the turnover margin and a

451
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,600
Speaker 2: few more buckets and key sets flip towards Charleston in

452
00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,360
Speaker 2: the rematch. I think Ken Palm has this line Wilmington

453
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 2: minus six, and I think that's too many. I kind

454
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: of like Charleston in this matchup on the road.

455
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: For anyone who hasn't seen Briseovich play, what do you

456
00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 1: think is a good NBA comp? I mean he's flirting

457
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 1: with like a twenty ten average at times this season.

458
00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 1: Certainly someone who can impact the game really all over

459
00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 1: the court. Do you are you reminded of anyone doesn't

460
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,600
Speaker 1: necessarily have to be an NBA player, be a collegiate

461
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 1: player as well, someone who's kind of a stretch big.

462
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good question. Yeah, he's good because he can.

463
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 2: He's great on the boards, he's good in his rolling sets,

464
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,160
Speaker 2: but he can take it off the bounce. I'm trying

465
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: to think maybe Raynod like from Stanford, that's a decent pick,

466
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 2: you know who he reminded me of. It's not a

467
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 2: good high major comp. But Matt Rogers from American, I

468
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 2: think they're kind of similar. I saw him carve up

469
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 2: who did they play the other night?

470
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 1: American had what Lee High or those teams?

471
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, yeah, and Matt Rodgers just like I think

472
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 2: he scored the last like three buckets just like kind

473
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 2: of driving into the post and hitting these huge floaters.

474
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: Brizovich is kind of a guy that is really crafty

475
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: in his game downhill, and you can really build an

476
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 2: offense around him.

477
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 1: All right, As I promise at the top, we're going

478
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: to get into our best bets the rest of the way,

479
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 1: as well as two player props before we get out

480
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: of here. So let's start with your top play. I

481
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 1: believe it's on Wednesday between Georgia Tech and Stanford.

482
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 2: That's right. I like Georgia Tech here at home. I

483
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 2: think Ken Palm has a Georgia Tech minus one. I

484
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: would love to get like a cheap money line like

485
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: minus one twenty or something, but i'd probably lay to

486
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 2: worth mentioning big injury issues for Georgia Tech really beat up.

487
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 2: But I really need I need McCollum to play for

488
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,119
Speaker 2: me to make this like a viable play. He's currently

489
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: dealing with a head injury. I guess he's day to day.

490
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:29,160
Speaker 2: But Stanford's also dealing with injuries too, Geeler and Blakes,

491
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 2: so that could even things out. I guess just monitor

492
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,120
Speaker 2: the injury report closely in this game. But Spot is great.

493
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: I mean, Tech comes off comes home off double digit

494
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: off a double digit road loss to Virginia, Stanford heads

495
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:45,680
Speaker 2: cross country after a one point home win over North

496
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: Carolina State, where the cardinal rank three hundred and fifty

497
00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 2: second nationally and haslemetrics away from home metric. They are

498
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: one and four on the East Coast this year with

499
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,359
Speaker 2: a one point win over North Carolina of the corpse

500
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 2: of North Carolina and four double digit losses. Schematically, Stanford

501
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:04,399
Speaker 2: is going to play through like we talked about Raynad

502
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 2: and the post. Awesome post player, especially underneath Smith, but

503
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,639
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech's post defense is borderline elite. I trust my

504
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 2: guy Benadongo to hang with him down low, and then

505
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 2: on the other end of the court, you've got David

506
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 2: Stotdenmeyer with his ballscreen centric offense guard friendly. It's mostly

507
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 2: downhill rim running with George Terry or McCollum to the

508
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: rim or getting to Dogo off the role. He's great

509
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 2: off the role. But Stanford's dribble penetration defense this year

510
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 2: is horrific. It's abhorrent, and they have been blitzed by

511
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 2: ballscreen penetration all year. SMU NC State North Carolina Wake

512
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 2: All took him to the cleaners. Their in tiar and

513
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: paint defense keeps regressing. And while I don't really trust

514
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech's offense in any way, they are about five

515
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: points per one hundred persessions better at home and therefore

516
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: it too at home in conference play this year with

517
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 2: a win over Louisville and their only losses to Duke

518
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 2: and Clemson, which I think is pretty good. So as

519
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 2: long as they're remotely healthy, I just I really just

520
00:24:58,400 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 2: want the column in there as a ball screen create

521
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 2: because he's so good. I think the Yellowjackets get it done.

522
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 2: I'm worried to get obliterated in the glass. But Stanford's

523
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: also had some ball handling issues that could rear their

524
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 2: likely head here and maybe even out that shot volume battle.

525
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 2: So I like Georgia Tech.

526
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: If you take the average act scores for these two programs,

527
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: it comes out to sixty seven. Do you think both

528
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 1: Stanford and the Rambling Wreck get to sixty seven in

529
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 1: this game?

530
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:28,440
Speaker 2: It's going to be close. That's a good that's a

531
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 2: good prop that, so M should offer that.

532
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to go to the Patriot League

533
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: for my first play. Army is going to be a

534
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 1: short favorite in North Baltimore against Loyola Greyhounds. And this

535
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 1: line is more or less predicated on the fact that

536
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 1: Loyol continually plays in close games in the Patriot League.

537
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: Six of their twelve conference games have been decided by

538
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,679
Speaker 1: six points or less. And now this is when I

539
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: just think the season is going to get bumpy for

540
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 1: Josh Leffler. I think he's done a nice job with

541
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,080
Speaker 1: Loyle this season in terms of giving them some identity,

542
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: some fight, but this is a multi year rebuild project

543
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,879
Speaker 1: and their final six games come against five teams with

544
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 1: winning conference records, So I think this is where there's

545
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: going to be a significant separation in the Patriot League

546
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: down the stretch. Now, they were getting dog walked by

547
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,479
Speaker 1: Army up at West Point in the first meeting. They

548
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 1: were down forty seven to thirty at halftime, but then

549
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 1: Loyola got hot. Army went into a little bit of

550
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 1: a second half le They only shot three for eight

551
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,200
Speaker 1: from the foul line, so they weren't able to pad

552
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: their lead in that way. They were lucky to pull

553
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 1: it out seventy four to seventy two. But I think

554
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 1: we as a gambling community are beneficiaries of that game.

555
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: That was a lot closer in the final score than

556
00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: it was. You know, we were closer to a runaway

557
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: than Loyola upset. So you know, in this game, I

558
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: think it just comes down to jail and Rucker, who,

559
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: by the way, this is a homecoming for him. We

560
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: usually like to slam on the fact that Loyola has

561
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,959
Speaker 1: no home court advantage to speak up for a variety

562
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: of reasons, and that remains true. But Rutger went to Gilman,

563
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: which is less than two miles away, so he's gonna

564
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: have friends, he's gonna have family, high school classmates, everyone's

565
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 1: gonna come. And seems as though every time that he

566
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 1: plays against Loyola in North Baltimore, he goes big. He

567
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:03,439
Speaker 1: gave Loyola thirty five on the road last season, the

568
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: year before that twenty two, and as a freshman in

569
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: the Patriot League Tournament he gave them twenty one. He's

570
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 1: coming off a performance where he went twelve for seventeen

571
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 1: for twenty six points, you know, against the Hounds in

572
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: that first meeting. I don't think they can stop them.

573
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:17,639
Speaker 1: I don't think they have an answer for him. You know,

574
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 1: sometimes it can be as simple at the low major level.

575
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,400
Speaker 1: You get the best player on the court and you're

576
00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 1: expecting big things and you're laying less than one possession.

577
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 1: This Army team is just a whole lot better than Loyola.

578
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna be interested to see where this line

579
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: actually pops out. These are just projections at Army minus one.

580
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 1: I played them up to minus four in this spot,

581
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 1: and Loyola, like I said, they've been in They've been

582
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: pesky for the better part of this Patriot League season.

583
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 1: But so much of the low major experience can be scheduling.

584
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 1: Who are you playing? When are you playing them? Stuck

585
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: brings this up a lot with you know, Lehigh not

586
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: having Higgins. There's been injury questions with some of the

587
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: teams that they played, and Loyola is kind of playing

588
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 1: that brand of basketball where they have different leading scorers

589
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: on a given night. They are a little bit more

590
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 1: flexible as they're growing. Some of these teams are so

591
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 1: dependent on their top two players, as Army is with Rutger.

592
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 1: I think the Knights get it done here. What are

593
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,639
Speaker 1: your thoughts on a team that I know you're bullish on.

594
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:12,639
Speaker 1: I would love to see. It'd be a great story

595
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 1: for them to win the Patriot League someone other than Colgate.

596
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: It seems we're trending in that direction, and that's kind

597
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: of open things up at the top of the Patriot League.

598
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 2: Are you worried about their legs at all heading on

599
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 2: the road after a double overtime win against buck Now.

600
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: As as Stuck likes to say, you know, these are

601
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 1: nineteen twenty twenty one year old kids, Like if this

602
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 1: was the Patriot League tournament or a tournament setting where

603
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 1: you're playing, you know, two back to back or two

604
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: and three days, and you're traveling and you have to

605
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: go to home courts, and then I think it gets

606
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,239
Speaker 1: a little bit dicey. I think there's enough separation in

607
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: this spot to say, you know that they got their rest,

608
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,480
Speaker 1: and honestly, you know, in terms of what is more

609
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: daunting in terms of a schedule, I'd say probably their

610
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,479
Speaker 1: day to day on campus as opposed to playing an

611
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 1: extra ten minutes against the Bison, which was a phenomenal game.

612
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,760
Speaker 1: By the way, I think one of my favorite tweets

613
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: from a mid major account this year, they're like, what

614
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 1: has happened to the defense budget? And they just screenshot

615
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: Bucknell going into triple digits against Army in double overtime.

616
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, you can't talk me off Army in this spot.

617
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 1: I like Loyola. I like where they're headed moving forward.

618
00:29:16,120 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: They're in a high school rich environment. It serves the

619
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: high school talents in the Baltimore Greater Baltimore area, So

620
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: it can really be a pretty quick turnaround in my opinion,

621
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: for them to be middle class in the Patriot League.

622
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: But with this schedule that they're staring down in the

623
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: next three weeks, I think reality is going to hit

624
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:33,600
Speaker 1: them right in the face and they're going to end

625
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: up probably, you know, third from the bottom in the

626
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:36,479
Speaker 1: Path League.

627
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,360
Speaker 2: I love this squad. I love the Rutgers Scoven's duo.

628
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 2: They don't turn the ball over ever, and they're a

629
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 2: great press offense, which is key against Loyola's kind of

630
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: extended pressure happy defense. They should be able to score

631
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: in the paint against Loyal is relatively useless paint defense,

632
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 2: should be able to you know, run their dho sets.

633
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 2: The Army offense, they're just so dynamic. Love of what

634
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 2: they do on offense. And you talked about the Patriot

635
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: League tournament. Maybe we talked about this the other night.

636
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna bet Army in the Patriot League

637
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 2: tournament when that time comes. I don't we don't think

638
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: anyone in that league is particularly good. I think there's

639
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,360
Speaker 2: some injury issues at the top, and I mean, look,

640
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 2: Rucker could just go crazy for three games in March

641
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 2: and then they have a bid. I probably can't play

642
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 2: this spot for a few reasons. One, I am worried

643
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 2: about their legs. Two, I'm worried that Loyola is going

644
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 2: to post them into oblivion. I mean, they scored forty

645
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 2: two paint points in the first matchup. These two combined

646
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: it for eighty two paint points in the first matchup,

647
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 2: which is crazy. But again I had that worry for

648
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: Army against like buck Now be you lay high Colgate

649
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,640
Speaker 2: to extent, and the only post heavy team they lost

650
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,200
Speaker 2: to was American and the unstoppable Matt Rogers, like we

651
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: talked about. Also, I wonder if Loyola is due for

652
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: a lot of positive shooting regression on defense, Conference opponents

653
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 2: have shot forty percent from three. They finally saw some

654
00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: regression lately. They beat bu and crush Lafayette. So I'm

655
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 2: gonna stay off this, But I love this Army squad.

656
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: Now you teased it mentioning Campbell earlier, the fighting Campbell's

657
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: have your attention? Is that game on Thursday?

658
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,959
Speaker 2: That game is on Thursday, Yes, sir, all right?

659
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 1: So who do you like in that one? What's the spread?

660
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 2: So I think ken Baum has it Campbell minus one.

661
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: I would love to get Northeastern as a dog here,

662
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 2: any dog price. I take them on the money line

663
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,360
Speaker 2: even like minus one ten. Campbell has been awesome. They

664
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: are I think they've won. How many they won in

665
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 2: a row? Like six seven, they've won eight to nine.

666
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 2: Maybe they're wildly overvalued. The defense specifically is insanely overvalued.

667
00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: This is one of the nation's worst in Tier defenses

668
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 2: by every metric, and the Campbells are getting bailed out

669
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: because conference opponents have shot twenty two percent from three.

670
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: They were begging to lose on Monday at home and

671
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 2: gets shorthanded without their two scorers four and twenty one

672
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: North Carolina A and T, who shot over sixty percent

673
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 2: from the interior but lost by four on the road

674
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 2: because they shot one for fourteen from three. That's the

675
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: story of Campbells season so far. NCAT led by seven

676
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,400
Speaker 2: with ten minutes left, the Campbels are so due for

677
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,120
Speaker 2: a loss. This defense is not the best in the CAAA,

678
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,719
Speaker 2: like Ken Palm says, they're like the tenth best like

679
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 2: shot quality sets when factoring in regression. Campbell again overdue

680
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: for a loss, especially because they've played the league's second

681
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 2: easiest schedule so far. And I like this spot for

682
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 2: them to drop one against Northeastern because the Huskies are

683
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 2: super undervalued, especially after playing the league's toughest schedule so far,

684
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:41,959
Speaker 2: and they're a great defense that have been bitten by

685
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: poor three point shooting variants. It's the flip side. Conference

686
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: opponents have shot forty percent from three against them, and

687
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 2: that's really key here because the Huskies are an elite

688
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 2: catch and shoot three point denial defense. They lead the

689
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: conference in both three point rail out and catch and

690
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: shoot jumpers allowed per game, and that's big against a

691
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 2: Campbe's team that lives on catch and shoot creation. And

692
00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 2: on the other end, Northeastern is just a rim, reliant

693
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: offense that can just punish Campbell's useless interior defense. They

694
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: ranked third in the CIA and paid points per game

695
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: king Woods and Pratt combined for nearly twenty four per game,

696
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: and they will get every one and more of those here.

697
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: The one worry I have is that the Husky's shaky

698
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 2: ball handling unit turns the ball over a million times

699
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: against Campbell's aggressive, press happy defense that leads the league

700
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 2: in defensive turner rate while also handed handing the Campmels

701
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 2: a bunch of easy transition buckets. But Northeastern's transition defense,

702
00:33:32,800 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 2: I think its started to look better lately. It's trending

703
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 2: up in conference play. So I'm going to take my

704
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 2: chances here and fade the Cambls, who I probably will

705
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: be fading for a little bit.

706
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: Here if they get it done for you. Rashad King

707
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,560
Speaker 1: has been on a heater, to put it lately. I

708
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: think he's had sixty points in his last two games.

709
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,840
Speaker 1: He's one of those rare wings at the low major level.

710
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: He's sixty six over two hundred pounds. He can get

711
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 1: to the tin, he can shoot, he can facilitate for teammates.

712
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 1: If he's somebody that can on a given Nico twenty

713
00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 1: five to five and five, you don't see that all

714
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: that often in college hoops, particularly at this level.

715
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 2: So it's fine they have they have that. Like like

716
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 2: I said that paint rim reliant offense, but it's the

717
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 2: guards that are scoring. It's all downhill, downhill. It's fun

718
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 2: to watch. It's a good team, all right.

719
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: I'm going to give that a fun over if you're

720
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: looking for some uppace up tempo basketball where the shots

721
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: are falling all over the place. Over one hundred and

722
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: fifty four, let's call it. In terms of the projections,

723
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: I'd play up to one fifty six between Omaha and

724
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 1: South Dakota State. The Mavericks have played above this total

725
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,360
Speaker 1: in five of their last six. South Dakota State has

726
00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,359
Speaker 1: blown past this number and three of their past four,

727
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:37,919
Speaker 1: and in their first meeting, Omaha took it eighty seven

728
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,720
Speaker 1: point eighty. The other piece of this is that it's

729
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 1: pretty rare for a low major to have a significant

730
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: home court advantage, but the Jacks play so much better

731
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 1: on their home floor. It's arguably the top low major

732
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: home court advantage in the sport. They're averaging ninety five

733
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: points per game at home in Summit play, So that's

734
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 1: why I would be shocked if this lands below one

735
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: fifty five. But for whatever, I think oddsmakers are kind

736
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:03,760
Speaker 1: of asleep at the wheel when it comes to totals

737
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 1: in the Summit and omahas has both been lucky in

738
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: terms of how how teams have shot against them, and

739
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: yet there's still two hundred and sixty fifth in defensive efficiency.

740
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: I think they have not reached the bottom, and when

741
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 1: it comes to playing against the top teams in the Summit,

742
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: I think they can be punished on the defensive ends.

743
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 1: They also got favorable whistles against Oscar Kluff in their

744
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: first meeting. He was in foul trouble that first meeting,

745
00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: so I think if he ends up playing North to

746
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 1: thirty minutes here, he could have one of his vintage

747
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: thirty and fifteen kind of games. And then what I

748
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:34,840
Speaker 1: like a lot about Omaha's offense in terms of their upside,

749
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: they have three separate scorers you can go off. Markelson

750
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 1: has six games with twenty plus in his last eight games,

751
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,800
Speaker 1: so he's been a consistent go to guy. JJ White

752
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 1: went nuclear against Oral Roberts last month scored thirty five.

753
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: And then Tony Osburn can catch fire from three point range.

754
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: He's someone who can make four or five triples. That

755
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 1: gives them a lot of answers to whatever the Jacks

756
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 1: do defensively. In this game. Even though it's not necessarily

757
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: their preference to play at that faster pace, I think

758
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 1: they can be and I wouldn't be shocked for this

759
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: game to be played in the eighties and for this

760
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: to cruise pass a number in the mid one fifties

761
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 1: in terms of a total. So I'm going to go

762
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,280
Speaker 1: there and you know, bank on kind of a shootout

763
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: between the top two teams or you know, contenders at

764
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: least for the Summit auto bid come conference tournament time,

765
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 1: and go with an entertaining brand of basketball.

766
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 2: Some of leagues, some of league overs, some of the best.

767
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: Yeah you said it about Omaha too. Just look they're

768
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 2: still a little overvalued, I think on the whole. But

769
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 2: just so many good shot creators, so many good playmakers, Sutton,

770
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,360
Speaker 2: like you said as a dog. So yeah, I like

771
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 2: that over all.

772
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 1: Right, last one on your card or did you have

773
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 1: anything on the cutting room floor?

774
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got a little sort of just missed the

775
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 2: list here, a few that I wrote down, but I

776
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:48,359
Speaker 2: couldn't quite get there for some reason or the other.

777
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: So I'm just gonna go one sentence on each year.

778
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 2: This is Wednesday, NC State plus seven at home against

779
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 2: Louisville wolf Pack among the better catch and shoot denial

780
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 2: defenses in the ACC, which is arrative against Louisville, and

781
00:37:01,520 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 2: I wonder if their posts and ISO heavy offense can

782
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 2: get going against a sometimes questionable Louisville interior. The Cardinals

783
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: also off wins against bottom feeders in Boston College and

784
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: Miami Florida, and they lost to Georgia Tech on the

785
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 2: road just ten days ago. So I kind of looked

786
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 2: that way Thursday, three spots I wrote down, but not

787
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: sure I can get there. South Alabama minus five at

788
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 2: home against Marshall. Can Marshall make shots over Alabama? South

789
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,839
Speaker 2: Alabama super Zone because if they don't, their downhill rim running,

790
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 2: lack of spacing ball screen offense will get nothing. Second

791
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: one William and Mary minus two at home against hof Hofstrass.

792
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 2: Some more CIA tribe are off back to back losses

793
00:37:40,920 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 2: which shot quality graded as analytical wins because of because

794
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,440
Speaker 2: they're elite spacing and shot selection offense shot at combined

795
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 2: fourteen for fifty seven from three on the road against

796
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 2: Drexel and Delaware. Now they're coming home against Hofstra, which

797
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 2: allows the highest three point rate in the CIA. Wouldn't

798
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:59,640
Speaker 2: be surprised if the Tribe just went you know, nuclear

799
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 2: from d even hit everything. Finally, Big West Ball my

800
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 2: favorite league this year. Love to bid Big West. You

801
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 2: see Irvine minus nine against U see Santa Barbara. Irvine

802
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,800
Speaker 2: hopefully fired up after the home loss to UCSD. Santa

803
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 2: Barbara has won three straight, but only because they shot

804
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 2: thirty four from sixty five from three in those games

805
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,399
Speaker 2: or fifty two percent. And you're not going to get

806
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,399
Speaker 2: good looks or high quality looks against Irvine super drop,

807
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 2: which is elite in denying those looks. So might do

808
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:30,000
Speaker 2: it if the numbers are right.

809
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm in for Bill and Mary if you

810
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: are so you talked me into it, I agree. I

811
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 1: don't think much of Hofser this year, so if that

812
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 1: numbers as tight as the projections call for it to be,

813
00:38:42,560 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: I don't mind laying the points with the tribe. I'm

814
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 1: going to close this out with elon lay close to

815
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: thirteen against North Carolina and say hey, listen. Anti has

816
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: fought the good fight despite losing eleven straight straight up.

817
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: They nearly upset Charleston and Campbell on the road, following

818
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 1: by three and four points respectively. As massive dogs of

819
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,320
Speaker 1: close to twenty points. But now they continue this road slog.

820
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 1: This is their third road trip in a row going

821
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: to Elon. This is I mean, their weakness is going

822
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 1: to be on full display in this game. They just

823
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: cannot get a rebound to save their life. Nearly three

824
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,440
Speaker 1: hundredths on both the offense and a defensive end in

825
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:17,400
Speaker 1: terms of rebounding percentage. And Elon is just outside the

826
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 1: top ten nationally and offensive rips thanks to Sam Sherry

827
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,840
Speaker 1: and Matthew Van Comen, So they're twin towers inside. I

828
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 1: think are going to dominate. They're going to get a

829
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: lot of second chance buckets. As six and a half

830
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:31,919
Speaker 1: point road favorites. Elon covered winning that last meeting by eight,

831
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:34,320
Speaker 1: and they killed him on the glass nineteen offensive boards,

832
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,000
Speaker 1: twenty six second chance points, and they didn't let North

833
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: Carolina A and T run, which is critical. They held

834
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: them the three fast break points, eight below their season average.

835
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: If A and T cannot run, they cannot score consistently

836
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,839
Speaker 1: up against Elon offense. It's a bonus if those jumpers fall.

837
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 1: If not, they're still going to get those second chance opportunities.

838
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: And Elon really needs this to kind of pull out

839
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,359
Speaker 1: of a mini slump because they got UNC, Wilmington and

840
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 1: Tawson coming up. I don't think this is a look

841
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: ahead moment because I don't think they're in that headspace

842
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 1: in terms of confidence. But what they need to know

843
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: is if they drop this one somehow all of a sudden,

844
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: they're at risk of losing that buy to the you know,

845
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: the second round of the CAAA tournament, which was unthinkable

846
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 1: after a fourteen and six start five and two in

847
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 1: the CIA. So this game's critical. I think it'll get

848
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: their full attention against an A and T team that

849
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 1: basically hung around kept to a single digit game in

850
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: their first meeting. But I think we talked about it

851
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 1: with Army in terms of a little bit of that

852
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 1: road weariness of not quite having the legs. They haven't

853
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: had these overtime thrillers, but they've had a lot of

854
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:35,600
Speaker 1: road trips. They you know, basically had to spend a

855
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 1: lot of energy, both real and emotional to be able

856
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 1: to hang around with you know, Charleston and Campbell. So

857
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: I think that's going to catch up to them and

858
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 1: the Spot. I wouldn't mind laying a big number with Phoenix.

859
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 2: Goodbye Low Spot for Elon who looked like a really

860
00:40:49,920 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 2: elite mid major squad until about what a month ago.

861
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 2: I think they've been a little unlucky, like you said,

862
00:40:58,239 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 2: and maybe North Carolina A and T. Maybe the line

863
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 2: will get shaded that way because they almost upset the Camels,

864
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 2: but we know the Camels are bad, So yeah, I

865
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 2: agree with you.

866
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:11,040
Speaker 1: We're gonna close that with two player props. They're both

867
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 1: high profile. So if you've been dying to hear some

868
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,879
Speaker 1: names that you recognize after all that CIA talk and

869
00:41:18,239 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: you know, getting deep into the weeds with some of

870
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 1: these low majors, this is the palate cleanser portion of

871
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 1: our program. I want to hear Tanner's take on this

872
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 1: as well. Cooper flag bounce back spot. After Duke is

873
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 1: upset by Clemson on the road, they got a home

874
00:41:31,239 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 1: game against California, his player prop for points is probably

875
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 1: gonna be set between twenty and twenty two points. I

876
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: like over here, and the spot is what's interesting in

877
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 1: acc games where Duke has been favored by over twenty points,

878
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 1: and they will be against the Golden Bears here his

879
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 1: over of twenty one is cash. Three of the four

880
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 1: times he's average close to twenty four points in those meetings,

881
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: and Cal is just an awful half court defense. Like

882
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: I'm not relying on this to be a transition game

883
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 1: where Flag gets you know, six eight points. It's in

884
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 1: the fast break game. It's fine if this becomes a

885
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:06,000
Speaker 1: half court slog because Cal gives up point nine to

886
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 1: three points per possession in the half court. That's two

887
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 1: hundred and ninety third in the entire country. They're just

888
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: weak in that regard. They're also weak defending and keeping

889
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,759
Speaker 1: people off the offensive class. So I could see you

890
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 1: a four to six eight second chance points for Flag.

891
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:20,520
Speaker 1: He's going to get the line. I think this is

892
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:22,240
Speaker 1: going to be a big game to get his confidence

893
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:24,200
Speaker 1: and the whole team to get off the map after

894
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 1: losing that kind of emotionally draining game to Clemps and

895
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 1: Clumps and gave them everything they can handle. It clearly

896
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 1: was their super Bowl. They wanted it more. Listen, Duke

897
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 1: was never going to run the table all the way

898
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 1: through the National Championship game. We talked about it. There's

899
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: only a few spots potentially in acc play where they

900
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,400
Speaker 1: could slip up. It's not you know, an absolute alarm

901
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: bell situation to lose to the Tigers. But you want

902
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 1: to make sure you get right back up and beat

903
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 1: the stuffing out of Cal Berkeley. I think they do it.

904
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: I think Flag has a big game. What are your

905
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 1: thoughts on that?

906
00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 2: So I always say this about do candicaps. The key

907
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:59,200
Speaker 2: to stopping Shires offense is stopping their stagger screen actions.

908
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:06,280
Speaker 2: And I believe Cal allows one point one one off

909
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: ball screening points per possession, which is in the twelfth percentile.

910
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 2: They're also the worst isolation defense in the nation, so

911
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:17,280
Speaker 2: I cannot argue against you. And yeah, Cooper should go off.

912
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,440
Speaker 2: And the big part of that about this is that

913
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 2: it should be a blowout, which means we won't get

914
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: late game execution Flag.

915
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:27,520
Speaker 1: Now, this last one is a tip of the captain,

916
00:43:27,600 --> 00:43:31,319
Speaker 1: Nick Giffin. He loves taking player props on rebounds. I'm

917
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: going over eights for JT. Toppin Texas Tech's Big against

918
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: Arizona State, if you throw out his ejection against Houston.

919
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,040
Speaker 1: In his last eight Big twelve games, he's averaging nine

920
00:43:41,080 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 1: rebounds per game. The Sun Devils are weak on the

921
00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 1: glass one hundred and sixty ninth in defensive rebounding percentage,

922
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 1: but two hundred and eightieth in allowing offensive rebounding opportunities

923
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 1: for their opponents. So I just see that as this

924
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 1: spot where Toppin could get three or four offensive rips,

925
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,959
Speaker 1: and then it becomes really easy to see a path

926
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 1: for him to get to digits. This number could land

927
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: anywhere in the market between seven and a half and nine,

928
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,279
Speaker 1: depending on the juice. You know, I'm advocating, you know,

929
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:10,520
Speaker 1: taking all of those on the over, But Arizona State

930
00:44:10,560 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 1: also does a good job of forcing contested shots, and

931
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 1: this is kind of the hidden factor of taking rebounding numbers.

932
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: You want to make sure that there's rebounding opportunities, particularly

933
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: on the offensive glass. And if you're playing a defense

934
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: that's just you know, turning everything into a layup line

935
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: at the rim or wide open threes, then maybe you

936
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: don't get as many opportunities. The sun Devils do a

937
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 1: good job forcing contested shots nearly top sixty and shooting

938
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,759
Speaker 1: efficiency allowed during Arizona State's three game losing streak. This

939
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 1: is the key for me. Their rebounding margin to Oklahoma

940
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: State minus twelve, to k State minus four to Arizona

941
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 1: minus fourteen. I think we're going to see a similar

942
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 1: number where Texas Tech beats them by about ten in

943
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,879
Speaker 1: the rebounding margin and top it's doing the yeoman's work there.

944
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:51,160
Speaker 1: So like I said, I would play this all the

945
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: way up to nine. If you can get plus money

946
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 1: anywhere in that seven and a half eight eight and

947
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 1: a half range would be ideal.

948
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 2: Trivia, Arizona State ranks second to last the Big Twelve

949
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 2: and rebounding differential during conference play minus sixty four. Who's

950
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 2: the worst team.

951
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 1: In the Big Twelve. Let's see Baylor Colorado.

952
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 2: Colorado also did last and turnover differential, But yeah, point

953
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 2: being Arizona State week on the glass week in the

954
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 2: shot volume bottle battle, So no complaints here.

955
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 1: On Thursday, Stuck, we'll be back with myself and Greg

956
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 1: Waddell talking the entire weekend card and as I mentioned,

957
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: a week from Saturday, February twenty second, our live show

958
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: will be back starting at ten to thirty am Eastern

959
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: streaming over on our YouTube channel that's BBOC. Hopefully we'll

960
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: see you there. Throw us in comments, likes, shares, everything

961
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: that's you know, kind of spreads the gospel of college

962
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:48,360
Speaker 1: hoops being the main show in the college sports universe,

963
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: as well as really the betting universe. At this point,

964
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,719
Speaker 1: we don't have to share that spotlight with anybody. I

965
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:55,200
Speaker 1: know that there's regular season hockey in the NBA, but

966
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 1: you're here for a reason. You want to get in

967
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 1: on the action and get you know, some of that

968
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:02,479
Speaker 1: March madness and and vibes before the calendar actually turns

969
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 1: to March. For Tanna McGrath im My Calvaries, thanks so

970
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: much for listening. We'll catch you next time. Action Network

971
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:24,640
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

972
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:27,880
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

973
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler