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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us prout read a lot? They're up for running

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Speaker 2: a game so smooth, so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Six sing just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shut with that shop of mind?

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Speaker 2: But buddy, and that's why.

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Speaker 3: You see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picture them. Shut up. I'm trying the wall. It's

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Speaker 2: left too. The wide eyed drill pibus, How old earth

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Speaker 2: big that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 4: betting podcast from the Action I Work. My name is

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Speaker 4: Michael Lee buff and in just a moment I'll be

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Speaker 4: joined by my co hosts and friends Anthony Dabundo and

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Speaker 4: beach Jay Cunningham. But before I bring them in, just

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Speaker 4: a reminder. Wonder Goal is presented by BET three six five,

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Speaker 4: the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code action.

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Speaker 4: To get BET three six fives exclusive sign up offer

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Speaker 4: in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar get two

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Speaker 4: hundred free.

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Speaker 1: Anthony.

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Speaker 4: Before we start this program, we're going to start with

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Speaker 4: United in Spurs. But before we did, on our last

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Speaker 4: Premier League pod, we talked about how overs we're clipping

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Speaker 4: at an absurd rate in the Premier League and we said,

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Speaker 4: we all three of us kind of agreed, Oh, there's

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Speaker 4: going to be a time to round robin the unders.

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Speaker 4: We decided that the time would come the week before

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Speaker 4: the World Cup and guess what happened.

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Speaker 1: Tell them what happened.

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Speaker 3: Unders went nine and one in the Premier League last night.

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Speaker 1: What over did you have?

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Speaker 3: I had the under, I had two unders and the

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Speaker 3: one of them went over.

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Speaker 1: Beautiful, all right?

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Speaker 3: So with this it was also I mean it was

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Speaker 3: not I mean Born that scored their first two shots.

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Speaker 2: War mister gurious, finishing team on planet Earth. Yeah, they

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Speaker 2: we have to bake that into our numbers now, is too.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean another relegation under that I bet

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Speaker 3: and lost. But yeah, Unders nine to one, we saw it.

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Speaker 3: You know, the x G over the course of the

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Speaker 3: ten matches wasn't really that different from last weekend when

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Speaker 3: we had a ton of overs, And I think that's

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Speaker 3: kind of a lesson in soccer betting, Like there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of variants in a soccer match. You can't just

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Speaker 3: look at the single game XG. You can't just look

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Speaker 3: at how many teams, how many goals they scored recently, Like,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot more that goes into it, and there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of variants in finishing. It's funny because you

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Speaker 3: can watch the same game where the team takes the

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Speaker 3: same shots, and you will look the entire narrative, Oh,

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Speaker 3: what a spectacular performance by team X is often decided

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Speaker 3: by whether they're shot from eighteen yards, went in the

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Speaker 3: top corner or went wide at the top corner, you know,

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Speaker 3: And that's really the beauty of the sport and the

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Speaker 3: pain of the sport.

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Speaker 4: And that's a perfect way to begin our conversations that

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Speaker 4: the Premier League midweek matches.

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Speaker 1: They are nine of them.

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Speaker 4: City and Arsenal are postponed because Arsenal is playing in

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Speaker 4: your league game that was postponed because Queen Elizabeth died.

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Speaker 4: But there is a headliner three fifteen pm on Wednesday afternoon.

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Speaker 4: Manchester United plus one twenty five home favorites against Tottenham

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Speaker 4: Hot Spurs plus two ten at bat three six five.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus two forty Spurs off of

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Speaker 4: an impressive win against Everton two nail and United bent

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Speaker 4: but didn't break. I guess that's the only way you

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Speaker 4: could put it against Newcastle in a nil nil Joe

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Speaker 4: Linton hitting the crossbar and then the post. I just

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Speaker 4: turned around and walked out of the room after that.

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Speaker 4: I think we know where this conversation is gonna go.

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Speaker 4: BJ So let's start with you United Spurs draw over under.

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Speaker 1: Where are you going here?

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Speaker 2: Well, obviously I'm going with Tottenham. You know, this is

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Speaker 2: the line has kind of crashed a little bit. You know,

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Speaker 2: United was plus one twenty essentially before their match against Newcastle.

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Speaker 2: They drew them zero zero, who is pretty even matched

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Speaker 2: on XG and the line now crashed down to plus

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Speaker 2: one forty for Manchester United. So it looks like the

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Speaker 2: market is finally actually giving Tottenham some respect that they

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Speaker 2: actually deserve. You know, you look at the final x

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Speaker 2: CHIEF in that man United match against Newcastle, you know

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Speaker 2: you think it would be pretty even. You know, United

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Speaker 2: was about one point one, Newcastle about point nine, but

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Speaker 2: point four to five of United's x G came on

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Speaker 2: the Marcus Rashford header that went wide at the ninety

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Speaker 2: fourth minute. So for the other ninety three minutes they

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Speaker 2: created er point six to four x G off of

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Speaker 2: fourteen shots, and now they're supposed to break down Tottenham's

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Speaker 2: low block, which has been incredibly effective this season. They've

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Speaker 2: only allowed point nine x G per match against teams

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Speaker 2: not named Arsenal. I mean United. I won't go through

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Speaker 2: the defensive numbers like I did last week, but if

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Speaker 2: we took it on the flip side offensively, they are

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Speaker 2: really really reliant on big scoring chances, like they're ninth

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Speaker 2: in shots and fifth and big scoring chances. Todham's allowed

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Speaker 2: the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League this season.

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Speaker 2: And you know the thing about Tottenham is is that

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Speaker 2: I know Anthony is going to tell you like, hey, yeah,

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Speaker 2: maybe they performed more than that better than they should

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Speaker 2: have last season. They really weren't, you know, a plus

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Speaker 2: one actually differential per ninety. Okay, that's that's fine. If

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Speaker 2: we're just taking this year's data, Totom right now is

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Speaker 2: at plus point five x G differential per ninety. United

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Speaker 2: is sitting around minus point one, which is really what

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Speaker 2: they kind of were for most of last season. So

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Speaker 2: and then we give you know, a little bit of

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Speaker 2: home field advantage to United, which I project out as

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Speaker 2: point three five x g Tottam still should be favor

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Speaker 2: in this match, like there is no reason why they

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Speaker 2: should not be favored. I really don't get this, So

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Tottenham drawn no bed at plus one fifteen. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I really don't understand this line, and I really there's

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Speaker 2: they continue to price Man United like they're just a

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Speaker 2: little step below Tottenham, which is just not the case.

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Speaker 2: There actually is quite a large gap between these two

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Speaker 2: teams right now. So I am on Anthony, Spurs. Come

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Speaker 2: on you, Spurs, Come on you, Spurs.

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Speaker 4: I'm with you on the money line plus two to ten.

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Speaker 4: Sometimes you can just kind of boil it down to

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Speaker 4: which team is better, and I think this conversation, it's.

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Speaker 1: Totam by a while.

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Speaker 4: The numbers bear that out, the performance is buried out,

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Speaker 4: and I think stylistically, again we talk about Spurs, when

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Speaker 4: to play them and when not to a lot of

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Speaker 4: it depends on what their opponent's going to how their

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Speaker 4: opponent's going to set up. And I know we've seen

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Speaker 4: ten Hog try his best to get this team to

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Speaker 4: play pretty low and then spring attacks on the counter.

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Speaker 4: But this United team has so many mistakes in it,

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Speaker 4: and what is Tottenham do better than basically anybody. They

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Speaker 4: feed off mistakes and are able to just capitalize them

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Speaker 4: and be clinical. So yeah, I like Spurs on the

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Speaker 4: money line. I thought this line was pretty fun just

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Speaker 4: right off the bat when I was scrolling. So I'm

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Speaker 4: on Tottenham. It's a moneyline for me, Anthony. You rarely

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Speaker 4: bet these Spurs under Antonio Conte and still we can't

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Speaker 4: get you on board here, even against this overrated Man

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Speaker 4: United side.

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Speaker 3: Yeah butt them twice now this year, both in the

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Speaker 3: Champions League against Frankfurt. Split those. But I think the

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Speaker 3: interesting part of this match is who's going to have

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Speaker 3: more of the ball, Because for my perception of how

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Speaker 3: this lines up, ten Hog has set them up in

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Speaker 3: a way that they're no longer trying to play out

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Speaker 3: from the back. They're no longer doing the short goalkicks,

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Speaker 3: They're no longer relying on the passing from the back

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Speaker 3: four because it's incredibly mediocre and they don't have the

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Speaker 3: passing in the midfield to exploit it either. But Tottenham's

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Speaker 3: not going to press, so I don't think Spurs are

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Speaker 3: necessarily a team that's going to kind of expose those weaknesses,

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Speaker 3: similar to what Arsenal did for large parts of that match.

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Speaker 3: I know United got in behind and took advantage in

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Speaker 3: the end, but when Arsenal was able to press United,

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Speaker 3: they were able to cause a lot of problems for

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Speaker 3: United in that match. I don't think we're going to

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Speaker 3: see and City as well. I don't think we're going

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Speaker 3: to see Spurs do that. So the fear is that

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Speaker 3: United has really really good attacking talent and that is

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Speaker 3: going to be the battle against Tottenham's elite defending in

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Speaker 3: the penalty area and b Day's right, they can see

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Speaker 3: a lot of space in the final third and when

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Speaker 3: you do that, you need to be excellent at defending

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Speaker 3: the penalty area, and Spurs are. They don't give much

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Speaker 3: off of set pieces either, and they create the most

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Speaker 3: shots from direct attacks in the league. So I see

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Speaker 3: a path of success for Tottenham here on the counter.

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Speaker 3: These two teams played at Old Trafford in the spring.

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Speaker 3: It was a different manager for United, but I think

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Speaker 3: the game played out about how I expected. United had

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Speaker 3: more of the ball, they didn't create that many more

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Speaker 3: chances though it was only about two point three expected goals,

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Speaker 3: but Spurs did struggle a little bit in transition to create.

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Speaker 3: So I do wonder. You know this Tottenham team is

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Speaker 3: still not right. You watch the game against Everton. Prior

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Speaker 3: to the penalty, which was dubious at best, they had

183
00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,439
Speaker 3: created less than point seven expected goals. The penalty opens

184
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Speaker 3: things up. It lets Spurs play how they want. They

185
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Speaker 3: get the lead, they're great front runners, but I still

186
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Speaker 3: don't think things are all rosy with Tottenham going back

187
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Speaker 3: all the way to the match against Frankfurt. So I'm

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Speaker 3: passing here. I lean to the under. It's sitting at

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Speaker 3: two point seventy five right now. If it gets to

190
00:08:48,800 --> 00:08:51,559
Speaker 3: three with you know, minus one twenty five, I will

191
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,319
Speaker 3: happily play it because I do think Spurs will defend

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00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,400
Speaker 3: the area well and I still think their attack is

193
00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 3: not creating a ton in transition right now. They're not

194
00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:03,520
Speaker 3: doing the things that you know in the idevized version

195
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Speaker 3: of Spurs they're doing. So I lean toward the under here.

196
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:08,559
Speaker 3: That being said, if you just blindly bet the overs

197
00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,719
Speaker 3: and all these Big Six matchups until City Liverpool, you're

198
00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:14,160
Speaker 3: hitting it over seventy five percent in the last two years.

199
00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:17,520
Speaker 3: So these Big Six matches have gone on a ridiculous

200
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,839
Speaker 3: overs run. I feel like at some point that needs

201
00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:23,200
Speaker 3: to end. There's been some great finishing, some great attacking play.

202
00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,160
Speaker 3: This game could be a little uglier than maybe some expect.

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00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,800
Speaker 4: Tuesday, two thirty pm kickoff between Brighton and Nottingham Forest

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Speaker 4: Brighton minus two fifty nodding of Forest.

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Speaker 2: We were begging for these lines two years ago.

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Speaker 4: Right, we're begging, right, COVID we do was coming finally

207
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Speaker 4: put some respect on their name.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 4: Forrest is six to one the Dress plus three seventy five.

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Speaker 4: Of course these odds are from bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Seagulls are one one to three.

212
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Speaker 4: Windraw loss in the last five they're expected Goles is

213
00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,240
Speaker 4: basically even. Forest meanwhile oh one and six in their

214
00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:58,840
Speaker 4: last seven, but over their last five matches, which were

215
00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 4: born with Fulham, less Villa and Wolves, the XG is

216
00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:06,320
Speaker 4: basically even as well, so Force THEBJ You've kind of

217
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,240
Speaker 4: been onto it there, slowly and under the radar, kind

218
00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:13,120
Speaker 4: of trending up, which is hard to say because they

219
00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 4: have zero wins at one point in their last seven matches. Yeah,

220
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Speaker 4: and they have played two hard matches, you could say.

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Speaker 4: And otherwise they've played three four teams that are in

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Speaker 4: the relegation battle. With them, maybe five if you want

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Speaker 4: to throw a villa in there. I know how this

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Speaker 4: is going to go. The number is insane on Brighton.

225
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Speaker 4: I like the number un forced. I don't know if

226
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Speaker 4: I can muster up the courage, which is saying a

227
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Speaker 4: lot for me to bet this terrible team in a

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Speaker 4: big number, But I mean I think it's it's.

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Speaker 1: Worth a shot.

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Speaker 4: So you'll know if I bet Force or not, if

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Speaker 4: for depending on how that game goes. If if Forrest wins,

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Speaker 4: you know I didn't bet them, and if they lose,

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Speaker 4: you know I did, Anthony. Let's just go right back

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Speaker 4: to you before BJ gets to talk about Brighton as

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Speaker 4: a mind to fifty underdog on this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean it's the same conversation we've had about

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Speaker 3: Forrest going into the last episode. You know, we just

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Speaker 3: talked about Forrest and how they've conceded a ridiculous number

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Speaker 3: of shots from outside the box, how we don't expect

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Speaker 3: that to continue, how we think their defense will improve.

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Speaker 3: And they had an excellent showing. Now granted it was wolves.

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Speaker 3: You know, what can we take from that? Not much?

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Speaker 2: So they should have at least.

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Speaker 3: And then they should have Yeah, I mean there was

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Speaker 3: two penalties in the game. One team makes it, one

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Speaker 3: team misses there.

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Speaker 2: Flora should have had two penalties in the match. The

248
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Speaker 2: stupid handball that went off the Wolves guys, the exact

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Speaker 2: same thing that happened to the Forest guy, and for

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Speaker 2: whatever reason, Var called the second one and not the

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Speaker 2: first one. But whatever. Continue. Not bitter, yeah, not.

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Speaker 3: Bitter at all. But you know, Forrest have conceded seventeen

253
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Speaker 3: expected goals twenty three actual goals. Henderson's been one of

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Speaker 3: the worst shot stoppers in the league. You go back

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Speaker 3: to look at Henderson's past years, there's no reason to

256
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,760
Speaker 3: think that he's a bad shot stopper, and so I'm

257
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Speaker 3: more of the belief that he will just be better

258
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Speaker 3: going far and that will lead them to being better defensively.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that they're that flawed defensively. You look

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Speaker 3: at their XG allowed from like they've conceded six goals

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Speaker 3: from set pieces. That's really bad. But then you look

262
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 3: at the x G and it's like two point nine.

263
00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:13,960
Speaker 3: So that makes me think, Okay, teams have hit some

264
00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 3: really good headers or for good finishes against them, and

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Speaker 3: then it's probably not going to continue. You know, you

266
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Speaker 3: look at the goalkeeping numbers. When Henderson was at Sheffield

267
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Speaker 3: he was plus five. When he was at United he

268
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Speaker 3: was plus zero point three in total. Now he's minus three.

269
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Speaker 3: So you know, there's not enough data on him to say,

270
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Speaker 3: you know, what we think he is as a goalie,

271
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Speaker 3: but there's strong data suggests he's not a bad goalie.

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Speaker 3: So I like the under here and I will be

273
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Speaker 3: betting at a two and a half plus money. I

274
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Speaker 3: think that's a little bit steep. Brighton, of course, had

275
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Speaker 3: two expected goals, didn't score against Brentford. They return home

276
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Speaker 3: here Forrest will sit deep. I don't think they'll be

277
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Speaker 3: quite as open. I know that that's been a problem

278
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Speaker 3: in the past, but Brighton is not a team that

279
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Speaker 3: I expect to be hitting bangers from outside the penalty area.

280
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Speaker 1: A callister can do it in his sleep.

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Speaker 3: B J.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think it is the conversation we're

283
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Speaker 2: going to have with Nningham Forrest pretty much every single

284
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Speaker 2: week now until they essentially either start getting some results

285
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Speaker 2: or the market starts to catch up and say, hey,

286
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Speaker 2: maybe they're not as bad as you know their results

287
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Speaker 2: have shown so far this season. I mean, defensively, there's

288
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Speaker 2: still ninth and big scoring chances allowed, like they're just

289
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Speaker 2: allowing a ton of shots and like Anthony mentioned, like

290
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Speaker 2: nine shots have gone in from outside the box, Like

291
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Speaker 2: that's the statistical probability of that only being you know,

292
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Speaker 2: ten matches in is pretty crazy. Yeah, they're they're going

293
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Speaker 2: to sit deep. This price is too high. Yeah, if

294
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Speaker 2: Forrest plus one and a half gets to you know,

295
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Speaker 2: minus one fifteen, I have to play it, Like that's

296
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,120
Speaker 2: just crazy. That's sitting at minus one forty right now,

297
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,840
Speaker 2: that on spread. So I don't know if we'll get there.

298
00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,960
Speaker 2: But yeah, Brighton is overvalued and I hate betting against Brighton.

299
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Speaker 2: But again, like you could say, new manager bounce for Brighton.

300
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 2: They looked good obviously against Brentford. But this still is

301
00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,480
Speaker 2: only the you know, third or third match under Deservey.

302
00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,720
Speaker 2: So so we'll see, we'll see where this line goes.

303
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, this is I don't know if we don't,

304
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Speaker 2: I'll be honest. I never thought we'd actually see Brighton

305
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 2: this big of a favorite at home against a team

306
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Speaker 2: not named Norwich. So yeah, it'll be interesting. We'll see

307
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Speaker 2: a Forest can actually finally maybe get a result.

308
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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's probably just enough here for me to do

309
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Speaker 4: it so I'll be unforced. Let's go to the three

310
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Speaker 4: fifteen game on Tuesday. There's two on Tuesday, I think

311
00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:25,360
Speaker 4: four on Wednesday, and then two more on Thursday. Palace

312
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 4: they're plus one fifteen at home hosting Wolverhampton, who just

313
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,160
Speaker 4: beat nine in the forest plus two forty. The draw

314
00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 4: here is plus two thirty.

315
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Speaker 1: This one.

316
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Speaker 4: You can boil down to this statement. Crystal Palace closed

317
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:39,480
Speaker 4: as a plus one oh five favorite against leads last

318
00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:42,560
Speaker 4: week at home. Leads are better than Wolves. I think

319
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Speaker 4: it's pretty simple here. I like Palace back on the

320
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:49,320
Speaker 4: Palace after almost not seeing the light, Anthony helped widen

321
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:51,720
Speaker 4: my eyes that this team is fine. They're least since

322
00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,200
Speaker 4: their schedule lightened up for Crystal Palace the last two

323
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 4: games one point eight expectacles against total leads in Leicester City.

324
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Speaker 4: Say Wolves are basically right and that realm as well. Meanwhile,

325
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,120
Speaker 4: wolverhamp did their last four matches five point seven expected

326
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 4: goals allowed and they were lucky to beat Nningham for

327
00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 4: us according to expect the goals. So it's this team

328
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 4: is still not impressive. I think pallis are you know

329
00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 4: a couple of tiers ahead of them at home where

330
00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 4: they do their best work. I'll be on Patrick Vieira

331
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Speaker 4: and his Eagles once again.

332
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Speaker 1: BJ anything here.

333
00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:30,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like both teams to score no. Minus one fifteen.

334
00:15:30,720 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 2: I mean Palace two straight matches held an opponent under

335
00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 2: one expected goal, the hopefully their head defense had in

336
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 2: the right direction. A whole lot of nothing happening in

337
00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,880
Speaker 2: that Leicester match at early in the morning. We really

338
00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,320
Speaker 2: glad I woke up to watch that. But yeah, it's

339
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,040
Speaker 2: it's interesting, you know, the last match against Leicester. Offensively,

340
00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:49,880
Speaker 2: it's kind of concerning for Crystal Palace because you only

341
00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,760
Speaker 2: create point three XG against you know, a Lester City

342
00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:54,360
Speaker 2: defense that's been one of the worst in the Premier

343
00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 2: League to start the season. Granted, obviously they've underperformed pretty drastically,

344
00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,600
Speaker 2: but you know, last five matches Palace only created four

345
00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 2: expected goals and two big scoring chances. The flip side

346
00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,560
Speaker 2: of that is Wolves, I mean, they are still essentially

347
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 2: what they were last year offensively, which is really really bad.

348
00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 2: If you mentioned Michael, if the penalty didn't happen against Forest,

349
00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 2: they would have only created point five x G against. Statistically,

350
00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 2: right now, the worst defense in the Premier League. Their

351
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 2: highest x G on a non penalty shot against Forest

352
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,080
Speaker 2: was point one two. It's now been five straight matches

353
00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,880
Speaker 2: for Wolves that they have not created big scoring chance

354
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 2: or created one expected goal from open play. And last

355
00:16:32,800 --> 00:16:35,920
Speaker 2: season when they played Palace, Palace dominated them both meetings,

356
00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:39,080
Speaker 2: beat them to nothing at both venues and Wolves only

357
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 2: gable to get a total of seventeen shots in point

358
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 2: seven x G against Palace's defense. And really what it

359
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,720
Speaker 2: boils down to is do you really think Wolves can

360
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,840
Speaker 2: can break down Crystal Palace's low block. I don't think so.

361
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 2: I mean Wolves, Yes, they have their getting up there

362
00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,480
Speaker 2: an expected threat. They're getting the ball into the box,

363
00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 2: you know Triore created, you know, got the ball into

364
00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 2: the box against Nottingham for us, but we'll just can't

365
00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 2: do anything with final third possession. They're just going to

366
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 2: be taking a lot of low quality chances, probably from

367
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 2: outside the box against Pallace, and we're going to have

368
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,000
Speaker 2: to bet on essentially, or we're gonna have to hope

369
00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,840
Speaker 2: that the variance goes our way. Like Anthony mentioned off

370
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,800
Speaker 2: the top, So yeah, I both team to score no

371
00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,280
Speaker 2: projected at minus one sixty two. So I think there's

372
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 2: a ton of value on this current line of minus

373
00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:22,959
Speaker 2: one fifteen.

374
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,560
Speaker 3: I'll present a little bit of a case that I

375
00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,399
Speaker 3: have a little bit of a concern about Palace. For

376
00:17:28,400 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 3: the first time of the season, they only completed four

377
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,560
Speaker 3: passes into the penalty area against Leicester. Yep, not great,

378
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 3: only fourteen touches in the past and in the attacking

379
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 3: penalty area against Leicester sixteen against Leeds. You can go

380
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,400
Speaker 3: back to early in the season, remember the Arsenal match

381
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,479
Speaker 3: at home, how dominant they were for the large majority

382
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,520
Speaker 3: of that match. They completed thirty they had thirty one

383
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 3: attacking penalty area touches, and then thirty one in the

384
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:55,240
Speaker 3: dominant win against Villa, even in the draws against Brentford

385
00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:59,719
Speaker 3: and Newcastle twenty and twenty two. So yes, Palace have

386
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:01,720
Speaker 3: for me in the last two games. They beat the

387
00:18:01,760 --> 00:18:04,399
Speaker 3: market spread in those games, beating leads and getting the

388
00:18:04,480 --> 00:18:07,960
Speaker 3: draw when they were plus a quarter against Leicester. But

389
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 3: I will be watching that and I will be passing

390
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 3: this match Wolves ken You know, I think they have

391
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:16,920
Speaker 3: the better passing unit right now, and that's a little

392
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,600
Speaker 3: bit concerning in a game where I need to get

393
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 3: margin with Palace, where their attack has just not been

394
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,919
Speaker 3: the same. I do expect the defense to continue to

395
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,400
Speaker 3: be excellent. We saw that in the last two matches,

396
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:32,800
Speaker 3: con siding less than one expected goal impressive, But I

397
00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 3: think that the attack is something we need to watch

398
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 3: because we're not getting enough of the sample beyond the

399
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 3: Big Six. Right, they've played four Big six opponents. That's

400
00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,959
Speaker 3: a lot, but we also now have five games against

401
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 3: non Big Six and Newcastle. You can kind of debate

402
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:52,160
Speaker 3: where they should be, but that's a sample that suggests

403
00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:54,960
Speaker 3: Palace should be better than nineteenth and passing to the

404
00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 3: penalty area at this point in the season.

405
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,160
Speaker 4: Flip to Wednesday now, two thirty pm kickoff, an absolute

406
00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 4: banger born with plus one seventy Southampton plus one fifty

407
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 4: the draw up plus two forty for the South Coast Derby,

408
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 4: the Saints defense trending down eighteenth and big chances. Elove now,

409
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 4: and we mean we knew this was coming.

410
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 3: They got waxed in the second half. They waxed by way.

411
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, should have been three goals and they get away

412
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 4: with a one to one draw. You wonder where this line,

413
00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 4: you know, if this would be flipped, if if west

414
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 4: Ham had had deservingly got away with that win.

415
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 1: But the Bournemouth offense is just, you know, it remains terrible.

416
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,560
Speaker 4: They keep putting points in their pocket though, which is

417
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 4: it's gonna be hilarious when we would wake up on

418
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 4: January fifteenth and Bourne myth is six points clear the

419
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,560
Speaker 4: relegation zone. The hell happened and they just took care

420
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 4: of business early in the season. Yeah, this one is

421
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 4: an easy pass for me. Bj You're you're really the

422
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 4: only one with anything actionable for the South Coast Derby,

423
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:56,040
Speaker 4: so saw you.

424
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to make the case from Bournemouth here. Terrible,

425
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 2: I meant. And yeah, they've been getting results against the

426
00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 2: non Big six sides, Like they haven't lost in seven

427
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 2: matches against non Big six clubs. They aren't insane finishing

428
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: rate ten goals of five point nine expected, but you know,

429
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 2: it's one of those things that like, yes, there's gonna

430
00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:15,959
Speaker 2: be some regression, like they can't continue to finish at

431
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:19,359
Speaker 2: this rate. But they're also going up against Gavin Benezu,

432
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: who is the second worst goalkeeper in the Premier League

433
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,439
Speaker 2: right now, Like he has a minus five post shot

434
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 2: actually plus minus. But it wasn't for Danny Ward, he

435
00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 2: would be the poster child of bad goalkeeping and listen,

436
00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 2: I said it last week, but born in this low

437
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 2: block has actually been kind of effective this season. Like

438
00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 2: they're yes, they're sitting. They have the lowest field till

439
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 2: of anybody in Europe's Big five leagues. They have a

440
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,240
Speaker 2: very low defensive line. But they've only allowed seven point

441
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: one non penalty XG in the seven matches versus non

442
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 2: Big six sides, Like they've actually been half way decent.

443
00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 2: And on the flip side, back to back horrible offensive

444
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: performances from Southampton. Granted, you know, they played west Ham,

445
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,440
Speaker 2: they played Manchester City, you know, two of the best

446
00:20:57,440 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: defenses in the league. But overall of the season they're

447
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,400
Speaker 2: only zero point nine to four non penalty expect goals

448
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 2: per ninety They've only created seven big scoring chances. And

449
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 2: this is not the type of matchup they really want,

450
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 2: Like they want a more open game where they can

451
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,719
Speaker 2: press high, they can you know, cause problems and you know,

452
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: be able to get in behind teams. But breaking down

453
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 2: a low block is not something that I'm going to

454
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,960
Speaker 2: be betting on with Southampton here. I mean they are listen,

455
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,679
Speaker 2: they are eighth and expected threat, Like that's impressive, but

456
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: you can't even convert one point three expected threat into

457
00:21:27,119 --> 00:21:30,560
Speaker 2: one non penalties expected goal per ninety like that's that's

458
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 2: kind of embarrassing. So I have major question marks of

459
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: them actually breaking down this this Bournemouth low block, and

460
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:38,880
Speaker 2: you know, the market's kind of crashed you on Bournemouth.

461
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 2: They opened at plus two fifteen here, and then you know,

462
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 2: Southampton had a bad performance against west Ham and it's

463
00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 2: crashed all the way down to where it's actually pretty

464
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 2: much a pick them. So I actually have Bournemouth projected

465
00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: as an ever so slight favorite here. So if you

466
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 2: can find dronal bet at even money or better, I

467
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 2: do think there is a little bit of value on

468
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 2: the cherries here at home, because I had just have

469
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 2: I have major question marks with the Southampton team right now.

470
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:06,160
Speaker 2: They just can't do anything offensively, and then, like you said, Michael,

471
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: they just concede big scoring chances for fun. So yeah,

472
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:11,919
Speaker 2: I think I think borne this crazy finishing rate might

473
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 2: continue on Wednesday.

474
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 3: Before we move on, Anthony, I mean, you can swallow it.

475
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 3: I leaned toward the under, but I I just looked

476
00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 3: and the market's already moved toward it, you know, minus

477
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:23,680
Speaker 3: one twenty five.

478
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 2: I'm surprised they didn't open a three just I mean,

479
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:30,679
Speaker 2: I can't believe. I can't. I cannot believe that I

480
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 2: even lived that under three and a half after the

481
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:34,080
Speaker 2: first goal and fall and born myth.

482
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 3: Oh me too, yep, yeah, and then the second half

483
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 3: was completely dead. But you know it didn't matter. They

484
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: had already scored four off of two expected.

485
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

486
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 3: I mean, you know the argument here, and I think

487
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 3: made a good point for it, is that you know,

488
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,160
Speaker 3: if Bournemouth doesn't continue to finish the rate that it has,

489
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 3: how do they score in this match? They're not going

490
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:54,719
Speaker 3: to be able to possess the ball, They're not going

491
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:54,919
Speaker 3: to be.

492
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: Able to create.

493
00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 3: They had an incredible move for the first goal, but

494
00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,119
Speaker 3: I do wonder if there will be that much space

495
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 3: in behind in this match that they can exploit against Saints.

496
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 3: I also, like I said, you know, the the markets

497
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 3: already moved here on the under, so I'm passing.

498
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 4: That one will probably be what everyone watches on Wednesday,

499
00:23:17,200 --> 00:23:20,440
Speaker 4: But there's other games. Two thirty pm that afternoon, Liverpool

500
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 4: minus two twenty five at home, hosting west Ham six

501
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 4: to one. The draw here is plus three seventy five.

502
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 4: This is a letdown spot for Liverpool if there ever

503
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 4: was one. After really impressive they got some bar luck,

504
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:37,359
Speaker 4: but still they were good against Man City one nil

505
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,959
Speaker 4: victory at Anfield. West Ham, by the way, when are

506
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 4: we going to change our tune about them? They might

507
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 4: be better than I think we've kind of painted them

508
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 4: as this season. Think of what we were kind of

509
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 4: jing at last year when they were really good in

510
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 4: the first half. Relative to where we expected them. They

511
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 4: kind of fell apart started the season slowly, But I

512
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 4: think that they're better that we maybe have given them

513
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:03,720
Speaker 4: credit for. We've been talking about their defense for a

514
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 4: couple weeks now. Third and non penalty expectacles for ninety

515
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 4: fifth and pig scoring chances allow.

516
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:08,920
Speaker 1: They should be able to give Liverpool a game.

517
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 4: The numbers good enough to maybe get involved, but likely

518
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,200
Speaker 4: a pass for me. Anthony, what are your thoughts here?

519
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 3: Yeah? I think west Ham has looked much better in

520
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 3: attack since Paketta came in. We talked about this last week.

521
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,360
Speaker 3: I liked west Ham on Sunday. They were the much

522
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 3: better side, outshot Southampton fourteen to zero in the second half,

523
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 3: completely dominated the match. They went down early. It was

524
00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 3: pretty even at that point and then it was all

525
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: west Ham from that point forward. The ball progression numbers

526
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 3: are a major improvement under this new era, you know,

527
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: the last four ish games. Now, granted the opponents have

528
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,919
Speaker 3: not been particularly good, and that is one argument you

529
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: can make and say, hold on a second, we need

530
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,600
Speaker 3: to kind of hold our horses here because of who

531
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 3: they played. But with that being said, the numbers aren't impressive.

532
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 3: They had only ten or more key passes in one

533
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 3: of their first six matches in the prem They've created ten,

534
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 3: eleven twelve in the last three coming into today. We

535
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 3: don't have the data yet from FB ref on that match,

536
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 3: but I'm guessing it's going to be over ten. They're

537
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 3: getting the ball into the area more. They're getting it,

538
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 3: you know, via carrying, which is a big part of

539
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 3: Paquetta's game. And Bowen has come to life. Attempted eleven

540
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,160
Speaker 3: shots in the first six matches to the season. Then

541
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 3: he tallied a little under one expected goal in that

542
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 3: So that's that's really bad for your first six matches

543
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 3: from the guy who had a breakout season last year.

544
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 3: But now the last three matches twelve shots. So he's

545
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,119
Speaker 3: taken more in the last three matches than he did

546
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 3: in the first six, so well, that's really encouraging for

547
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: west Ham. I wasn't that impressed by Liverpool. I thought

548
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,160
Speaker 3: they did a good job defensively stifling what city wanted,

549
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: but I didn't think they looked that's.

550
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: What we've been looking for out of them, though, right right, absolutely, you.

551
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,040
Speaker 3: Know it's a classic example of you know, we can't

552
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 3: just write off these teams, especially at home. This is

553
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 3: the spot where I will be staying away, though entirely.

554
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 3: I don't hate a look on west Ham. If it

555
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 3: gets to plus one and a half, like a flat

556
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 3: one and a half, I'll bet it, But right now

557
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 3: it's staying away.

558
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 4: The next one is an absolute party Brentford four to

559
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 4: one at home hosting Chelsea might have won fifty four

560
00:26:09,280 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 4: at bet three six five. The draw here is plus

561
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 4: two to eighty BJ.

562
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:13,640
Speaker 1: I mean this one.

563
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 4: If you've been listening to this podcast, it should be

564
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 4: pretty obvious how this this breakdown is going to go.

565
00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 4: All three of us are gonna be on the same

566
00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 4: side and it's not going to be Chelsea.

567
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, the market just continues to tell everybody that Brentford

568
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 2: sucks like they're They're terrible. They're a bottom half table

569
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 2: team like and it's just not it's just not true. Like, yeah,

570
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 2: they they didn't deserve, you know, to get the win

571
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: against Brighton. I thought Brighton was by far the better team.

572
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 2: You know, Tony got a penalty cool back heel off

573
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: of their one big score chance and that was about

574
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: it for Brentford. But it comes down to once again

575
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 2: we've We've said it a million times, but they are

576
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 2: just so incredibly difficult to play at the Brentford Community Stadium.

577
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 2: I mean United and Arsenal have gone there this season.

578
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: United god obviously got pummeled for nothing, Arsenal one three nothing,

579
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,000
Speaker 2: but the XG was only one two point five in

580
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 2: that match. Since their promotion the Premier League, they've had

581
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 2: eight matches versus the Big Six. They have a plus

582
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 2: point nine expected goal differential in those eight matches and

583
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 2: the only teams they've lost the expected goals battle to

584
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 2: is City, Liverpool and then Arsenal this season. When Chelsea

585
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 2: went there last year they won one nothing, but Brentford

586
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,919
Speaker 2: completely dominated the match from a chance creation aspect. I

587
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 2: mean they beat him on extually one point six too

588
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: point three. They outshot Chelsea seventeen to five and had

589
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: forty three touches in Chelsea's penalty area. And what's interesting

590
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:27,160
Speaker 2: about that match is the timing of when it happened

591
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:29,199
Speaker 2: to the season. It was Chelsea's coming off a one

592
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 2: zero loss at home to United, then they lost to

593
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 2: Juventus on the road in the Champions League, and they

594
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,639
Speaker 2: came back and they put up three point six expected

595
00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 2: goals against Southampton. Everybody thinks the offense is back. They

596
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: go on the road to Renford and they just create nothing.

597
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,800
Speaker 2: But then after that match they went thirteen straight matches

598
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:46,680
Speaker 2: of creating over one and a half expected goals in

599
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 2: each match, like it was just a there's this weird

600
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 2: outlier of like, hey, how only created point three against Brentford. Well,

601
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: Benford's low block, like I've been talking about, They're incredibly

602
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: hard to get the ball into the penalty area against them.

603
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,719
Speaker 2: And Chelsea, let's to be honest, they did not deserve

604
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 2: to beat aston Villa this this weekend. I mean aston

605
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 2: Villa created over two expected goals against them, had an

606
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 2: expected thread of one point eight. And what's most interesting

607
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: is Villa had a sixty four percent field tilt in

608
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: that game, like they actually dominated in the final third,

609
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 2: and the biggest part of it is like they did

610
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 2: it without pressing, Like they only created three high turnovers,

611
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 2: the pass per defensive action was only eleven, but yet

612
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:24,080
Speaker 2: they were still able to get twelve deep completions and

613
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 2: thirteen shots into the penalty area. So if you're looking

614
00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 2: for a team that can do a very similar game

615
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,360
Speaker 2: plan as that and actually you know, be somewhat effective

616
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 2: with it as well, Brentford is absolutely that team. Also

617
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 2: for whatever reason, you know, I mentioned that on last

618
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 2: week's pod that hey, you know, Steven Gerrard actually kind

619
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: of out managed Graham Potter in the two meetings. You

620
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:48,160
Speaker 2: know that aston Villa beat them right now, next get well,

621
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 2: the same kind of thing happened with the Brentford Brighton

622
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 2: matches last year between Frank and Potter Brighton and over

623
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 2: the two matches was held to just one point one

624
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: expected goals, no big scoring chances in just six shots

625
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 2: from inside the the area. So I think Thomas Frank

626
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 2: will have a similar game plan that aston Villa had

627
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 2: be able to keep Chelsea at bay. And this is

628
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: also I mean, this is Sandwich City here for Chelsea

629
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 2: because they got united on deck this weekend and this

630
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 2: is their third road match if you take you know,

631
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 2: the Champions League match. Unbelievable spot here for Brentford. So

632
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 2: I'm on them plus one minus one forty, don't hate them,

633
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,120
Speaker 2: you know, plus half a goal at anything, plus money either.

634
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 4: A couple of statements that I didn't think we'd be

635
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 4: saying this Premier League season. One brighton or minus two

636
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 4: fifty under favorite. The other one Keppa standing on his

637
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 4: head was really really good for Chelsea and they're two nil,

638
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 4: very lucky win over Aston Villa.

639
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,560
Speaker 1: This Chelsea team is still kind.

640
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 4: Of working out the kinks as they transition, and I

641
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 4: think that was pretty evident giving up two point four

642
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 4: to five expected goals to the worst defensive team in

643
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 4: the Premier League outside of Bournemouth in terms of expected goals.

644
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: Fifth match for Chelsea, this one will be since October

645
00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 4: first United on deck. I think this is just a

646
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 4: really really good spot to back Brentford. I'll be on

647
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 4: the money line four to one. They're at home too.

648
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 4: We love playing the Bees at the Brentford Community Stadium,

649
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 4: especially against the big Big six.

650
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 3: Anthony one hundred and two minutes today for Kai Havertz

651
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 3: and Pierre Mick Obama Yang together up top for Chelsea.

652
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: One shot reached James out potentially through the World Cup.

653
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: Now big loss. He looked like he was in the

654
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 3: middle of a breakout season for them. He's really important

655
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 3: for what Potter wants to do. I don't know what

656
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 3: they're going to do without him. I think it's a

657
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 3: major flag here. Raheem Sterling playing at like wing back.

658
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 3: Don't love that. And Goloconte remains out, Leslie Fafana's out

659
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: to the World Cup, and Thiago Silva picked up a

660
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: knock today, may not play. So I think they're going

661
00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 3: to be extra caution with him because they're already shorthanded

662
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 3: with the center backs. They don't want anybody to get

663
00:30:48,840 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 3: more injured, especially like you mentioned United at the weekend.

664
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 3: This is a really tenuous situation for Potter's team. I

665
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 3: don't know what the plan is in terms of all

666
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 3: the bodies missing. Who are they going to start. You know,

667
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: we're looking at you know, Kouka at left center back again,

668
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 3: I guess, and and Chaliba you know, we'll see. I mean,

669
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 3: it's it's it's it's pretty concerning in terms of what

670
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 3: they're going to do with their defending and the attack

671
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 3: is still not linked right, you know, it's still not working.

672
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 3: Bill had their way with them in this match. They

673
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 3: made it very easy. Like you mentioned, over to expected

674
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 3: Goalstavilla is a huge red flag. I don't expect Kapa

675
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 3: to continue having you know, blinders in the goal. They

676
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 3: let Danny Ings and only Watkins take eight shots. That's

677
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 3: a lot. It's really concerning for Chelsea here, so I'm

678
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:38,680
Speaker 3: happy to fade them again with the Bees at home.

679
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 3: Bja mentioned what happened last year. I think Chelsea is

680
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: still clearly little overvalued. They were overvalued today. Stayed away,

681
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 3: but they were they were not the right side.

682
00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an easy one, great great number and Brentford.

683
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 4: All right, let's just skip over Newcastle and everdon no, no, no, no,

684
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 4: we have to.

685
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 3: Talk about how Everton couldn't attempt to stop a shot

686
00:31:58,080 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 3: in the second half.

687
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: I'll set it up.

688
00:32:01,080 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 4: The Magpies minus one sixty three at Saint James Park,

689
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: Everton four to one. The Druss persuity have been saying

690
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 4: for weeks now this team's going down. It was just

691
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 4: a blip and you guys have saying, no, everything's good,

692
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 4: everything's good.

693
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: It seems like they're.

694
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 1: Just when they fix one thing and they start.

695
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,479
Speaker 4: To look all right, like they're getting it together. Whatever

696
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:26,320
Speaker 4: part of the game, whatever part of their plan they

697
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 4: were kind of ignoring to fix, to sacrifice to fix

698
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 4: the other, one just completely comes undone. So yeah, the

699
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 4: attack is pretty bad right now. Dominic kyrat Lewin still

700
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 4: working its way back though, so I have faith. I

701
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 4: don't think I like this number enough though Newcastle. Newcastle

702
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: look really good. They just it's so annoying because of

703
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 4: how they've accomplished it. But I actually I would say

704
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: I wasn't too discouraged from everdence play against Tottenham because

705
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 4: they clearly set out to do something. They didn't accomplish it, sure,

706
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: but they hung around and it was a penalty that

707
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 4: really flipped the game.

708
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 3: My question is though you go down a goal, Yeah,

709
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 3: they didn't. They couldn't.

710
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 4: I mean, the funny thing was like that the subs

711
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 4: would tell you they were they were going to go

712
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 4: for it, right. They lashed Ron done and and dcl

713
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 4: on the field, put a woebe that, put in another

714
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,000
Speaker 4: central midfield and put a wobe at wing back and

715
00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 4: they still couldn't create anything it's just it.

716
00:33:18,720 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: It feels concerning to me that you know, I'm the

717
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 3: top tottem skeptic, and I think the second half was

718
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 3: the best half they've played in a very long time.

719
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 3: UH and it came against Everton have conceded the second

720
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 3: most open play goal XG in the league. Pickford Uh

721
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: didn't have a great day against Spurs, but he's been

722
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: very good shot stopping wise. It just feels like a

723
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 3: house of cards. And I understand that they've made improvements

724
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 3: in certain areas to not be a complete sieve, but

725
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 3: I think we need to pump the brakes on the

726
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 3: Everton love. I think this is a good allt line

727
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 3: spot if you like Newcastle to go after I'm not

728
00:33:53,920 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 3: sure that I'll get there because I want to look

729
00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 3: at this lineup that Newcastle is going to put out

730
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 3: because again you look at the attackers and it still

731
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: feels like they're all going to regress and they're just

732
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 3: playing above their heads. But also with the midfield as

733
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 3: good as it is, maybe they're not. Maybe they have

734
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 3: the potential to be better.

735
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: And I think we're gonna really going to figure out,

736
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 2: Michael how good this Everton team is after this match.

737
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 2: Because I'm just gonna read off their schedule going forward

738
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: essentially until until we break for the World Cup. They

739
00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 2: got Palace at home, on the road of Fulham, at

740
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 2: home against Less, and then on the road of Bournemouth. Like,

741
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,359
Speaker 2: if they can't create anything against those teams, then there's

742
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 2: some major concerns and we might have to start thinking

743
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 2: about a managerial change here. Never yet again, No.

744
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, they're you know, they're sitting there. They've

745
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 3: conceded eleven goals from seventeen expected, they've only scored eight

746
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: from ten. I mean they're like, like I said, I

747
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 3: said this in the last pot, the whole leagues do

748
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,439
Speaker 3: for unders except Everton, who should be playing a couple

749
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 3: of wild games here in the coming You know, well.

750
00:34:53,760 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: They have they have the best fire firemen in the league.

751
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 4: Tarkowski and Ghana and Pickford. Those guys all are really

752
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 4: good at putting out fires, just like hurling themselves in

753
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 4: front of shots, whether they're a goalkeeper or not, or

754
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 4: in Ghana's case, just like stifling a counter.

755
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 3: So I can see them not have not one x

756
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 3: G since Forrest in August. Yeah, that's uh.

757
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 2: I think I think there's a a gentleman who might

758
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: be available. He's coached Tarkowski in the past, knows how

759
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 2: to play a low block. He was spotted at Lester.

760
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:32,720
Speaker 2: Maybe he wants to be their new manager.

761
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 3: I think he'd I think he watched Lester Palace and

762
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: was inspired by you know, I think he was honest.

763
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: Slinger prints were all over that match.

764
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, he coached both those teams.

765
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 4: That was.

766
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: That was a like a Seanditch Roy Hodgson match, That's

767
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 2: what it was. That was the Roy Hodgson Crystal Palace

768
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:48,720
Speaker 2: that we watched.

769
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,879
Speaker 3: Actually the point they looked a lot more like Hodgson Palace, which, yeah,

770
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 3: that team costs me a lot of money, yep, because

771
00:35:57,080 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: they were a luck box. But now Palace, you know,

772
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,760
Speaker 3: we'll see. But yeah, Everton, it feels like it feels

773
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: like the regression is coming and you know, perhaps they

774
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:08,920
Speaker 3: dodged it for a little bit here but away at

775
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 3: Newcastle feels like a spot where the market may not

776
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 3: make them a huge underdog because Newcastle's not that much

777
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,239
Speaker 3: market respect that there's a world where Newcastle paced them here.

778
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:20,560
Speaker 2: I know that this line is going to be sitting

779
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: on Wednesday at Newcastle minus two ten and I'm gonna

780
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,880
Speaker 2: have to stare at every none plus one. I'm just

781
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna have to decide whether I have the

782
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 2: courage or not. So we're gonna do it. We'll see

783
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:30,919
Speaker 2: you and me yep.

784
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 4: Thursday, Fullham plus one seventy at home, Villa plus one

785
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:37,520
Speaker 4: fifty five on the road. The draw here's plus two thirty.

786
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 4: Speaking to managerial changes, Aston Villa Steven Gerrard styles make fights,

787
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:48,839
Speaker 4: these are two very different teams. Fulham's defense leaks like

788
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:53,879
Speaker 4: a sieve. Villa's attack except for when they play Chelsea

789
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 4: can't take advantage of it. Want to read off some

790
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 4: expectacles against numbers for Fulham over the past you know,

791
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 4: month and a half or so over the last seven matches.

792
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,760
Speaker 4: So in four of them Arsenal two point four expectacles,

793
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 4: Spurs two point five, expectacles, Newcastle three and a half,

794
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,400
Speaker 4: west Ham three point three. And I understand that those

795
00:37:15,560 --> 00:37:18,720
Speaker 4: teams are much better than Aston Villa going forward, but

796
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 4: those are glaringly bad numbers. And what we know about

797
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 4: Marco Silva just from his days with Watford and never

798
00:37:24,080 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 4: didn't it he doesn't really know how to sort him out.

799
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:29,319
Speaker 4: Like if Hiss, if his teams can't play you off

800
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 4: the pitch and they need to manage a game. It's

801
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 4: going to be an issue. And then aston Villa is

802
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,239
Speaker 4: a team that just they just want to manage games.

803
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:37,839
Speaker 1: That's what they do.

804
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 4: They want to they they're they're you know, for for

805
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,400
Speaker 4: our college football listeners out there, for those who like

806
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 4: don't say it, they are Spender, Spencer Petrice. They just

807
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 4: they will they want to just manage a game, keep

808
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 4: it as predictable and pragmatic as possible. I got nothing

809
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 4: to hear, but this it is a it's really funny

810
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 4: to watch this one. This is a a new Tony

811
00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 4: battle if there ever was one. BJ What do you think?

812
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: Well, I'm passing on this one, but it's funny. You

813
00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 2: mentioned the last seven matches for Fulham, you read off

814
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 2: the XG. They've had two big scoring chances four seventeen against.

815
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:15,920
Speaker 2: Like you mentioned, Marco Silva is just he's just going

816
00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 2: to try to play one way and that seems to

817
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: be the only way right now. You know. I texted

818
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: Anthony about two weeks ago and I said, when do

819
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 2: we start getting worried about our Fulham top promoted team

820
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 2: bet And he just kind of was like, who are

821
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 2: you worried about? And I said, Bournemouth keeps winning and

822
00:38:29,840 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 2: now I'm starting to get a little worried about that.

823
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,480
Speaker 2: As far as this match concerned, I mean, I mean

824
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: the number on Ason Villa is not quite good enough

825
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 2: for me. Like he said, like, yeah, they created two

826
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 2: point three against Chelsea, but we can't really take a

827
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: one match sample size and be like, oh my gosh,

828
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 2: this assin Ville attack it's back back, yeah, like Leon

829
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 2: Bailey Contino like, oh my gosh, they're so good, like

830
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:51,359
Speaker 2: they're going to you know, Trounce fall like a whole

831
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: bit bump the bricks like they you know, there's been

832
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,400
Speaker 2: a lot of matches where they've barely been able to

833
00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,680
Speaker 2: create half an expected goal. So I am on this

834
00:39:00,719 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 2: one because you know, this this Fulham team, I don't

835
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: really know what to make of them right.

836
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:06,760
Speaker 1: Now, Anthony.

837
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 4: You spent the first six weeks of the season sinking

838
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 4: money into this assin Villa team. Then he stopped, and

839
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:15,959
Speaker 4: now you're back.

840
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:18,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know you know what I'm doing. I'm taking

841
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 3: all my Fulham early season profits and I'm now rolling

842
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 3: over into Fulham fades. Funny how that works, you know,

843
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: over the course of the season, we go up and

844
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: down on teams, and I'm certainly down on Fulham, although

845
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 3: I did just see a stat that Tim Reim has

846
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 3: the most aerial duels won in the Prem and is

847
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 3: not all the past yet a single time this season.

848
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 2: Garnament center back, baby, that is our.

849
00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 3: US men's national team center back. But yeah, I mean

850
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,239
Speaker 3: the the the form is really bad. There was a

851
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 3: red card in there against Newcastle, but even so conceding

852
00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 3: three point three to west Ham, conceding a full expected

853
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 3: goal to Bournemouth, I mean that doesn't sound bad, but

854
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 3: I mean when Bournemouth hadn't.

855
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: Produced of it's like thirty percent and of.

856
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 3: Its matches the entire season except for Danny Ward things.

857
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 3: It's a bit of a red flag for the Fulham defense,

858
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,120
Speaker 3: which is clearly regressing. And this attack continues to be overvalued,

859
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 3: overrated in the market. I've felt that since day one

860
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 3: with this team. I thought their defense would be a

861
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 3: little better. It's fallen off a little bit. I'm thinking

862
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: Villa here. I think this is a get right spot

863
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 3: for Villa. This is a put up, a shut up

864
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,799
Speaker 3: spot for Gerrard, and I know the other one. This

865
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 3: is not like, I don't have a huge edge here.

866
00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 3: I have Villa projected at minus one eleven, so on

867
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 3: the drunt, no bet, so like, this is a tiny edge,

868
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:39,719
Speaker 3: but I'm going to play it because I think these

869
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 3: two teams are going to start trending. Ones trending down

870
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 3: the table, ones trending out the table. Because on my

871
00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 3: preseason priors, I think Villa will make a step forward here.

872
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 3: It's so hard to say because they have been so bad,

873
00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 3: but it's very hard to see Fulham creating much of

874
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,640
Speaker 3: anything in this match against a Villa defense. It's been

875
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:56,320
Speaker 3: so dominant.

876
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 2: So you know, you know what Anthony put me down

877
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 2: for the syndicate again, the syndicate. Yeah, let's do it again.

878
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 2: I'll do it.

879
00:41:06,280 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 3: We'll be taken out of second mortgage.

880
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 2: Let's do it again. Why not?

881
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 1: Oh boy?

882
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 4: The other Thursday game Leicester plus one ten at home,

883
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 4: Leeds United plus two thirty on the road to draw

884
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:21,600
Speaker 4: here is plus two forty. Not a bad showing from

885
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 4: Leeds in a one nothing lost to Arsenal at all.

886
00:41:24,920 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: I was impressed.

887
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, Lester, you know that they're below average and basically

888
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 4: every defensive category except for denying crosses into the box,

889
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 4: and I mean Leeds is just not the type of

890
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:38,359
Speaker 4: team to just whip things into the eighteen yard bucks.

891
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 4: So I think stylistically this is fine for Leeds. They

892
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 4: forced mistakes, They'll be pressing Lester all over the place,

893
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 4: even on the road. They're creating enough offense for me

894
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 4: to think that they should be able to pull the

895
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,000
Speaker 4: upset here. So I like Leeds on the money line

896
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 4: plus two thirty Anthony back on Jesse Marsh's side.

897
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, happy to bet him again. Did not get a

898
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 3: result should have. I would like an apology from BJ.

899
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:07,919
Speaker 2: Well, you should not have a penalty in the first

900
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: place because Var missed an off sides in the build up.

901
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 3: So you know in the second half we're nine to one.

902
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 2: Arsenal managed the game. Well that's a that's a great

903
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 2: defensive performance and hurt your chances. Sorry. Yeah, so I

904
00:42:22,840 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 2: will not apologize for that.

905
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 3: VJ control all he wants. That was a Jesse Marsh

906
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:28,840
Speaker 3: master class of a performance.

907
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 2: It was.

908
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 3: It was I had Arsenal situation.

909
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:32,839
Speaker 2: For Arsenal, calm down.

910
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 3: I think I think you know, of my close peers

911
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 3: in the soccer community, I think Arsenal is probably the

912
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 3: most supported team of my of my peers in the

913
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 3: soccer community on the bird app, and many of them

914
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 3: were saying, you know, this is the this is the

915
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 3: best matchup anybody's given Arsenal all season. And I agree.

916
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: I thought they took it to him. I thought it

917
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 3: was very impressive. I wonder if they can replicate it

918
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:56,920
Speaker 3: on the road. That's the one concern here with backing

919
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 3: leads away from home. But I get the better team

920
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 3: plus a half minus one thirty. Yeah, yeah, I'm going

921
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 3: to take leads immediately, and I expect that market to

922
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 3: move toward them. I think this game is a perfect

923
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 3: lead spot. They should be able to disrupt Lester and

924
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 3: like Leicester's attack is still really bad guys, they're just

925
00:43:18,000 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 3: still getting by on these long range chances being scored.

926
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 3: Still bottom five in average shot distance.

927
00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 1: All right, with that, we.

928
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 4: Can move on. There's La Liga is the only other

929
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 4: midweek match. But before we do that, a quick reminder.

930
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three sixty five, the

931
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 4: world's favorite sportsbook brand.

932
00:43:35,960 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 1: Sign Up with promo.

933
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,439
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934
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:42,080
Speaker 4: up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar

935
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 4: on any game, get two hundred free BJA. You're the

936
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:49,799
Speaker 4: only one of us with a play in Spain over

937
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 4: the midweek.

938
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 2: What do you got, Yeah, let's go with Almeria versus Jirona,

939
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,719
Speaker 2: a little promotion matchup here. They're starting to become kind

940
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 2: of a little bit of a trend in lat where

941
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 2: I think we're gonna have to start playing some overs.

942
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 2: You know, the goalkeeping has been a little subpart. You know,

943
00:44:06,920 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 2: the teams are not just sitting back in four to

944
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: four twos anymore. They're coming out, They're playing you know,

945
00:44:11,320 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 2: four to three threes, different types of formations and being

946
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:16,080
Speaker 2: more attacking. So I don't think we'll see we're not

947
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 2: really seeing the old lall league. We're kind of seeing

948
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,799
Speaker 2: a trend towards a more attacking LOLL league. In Girona

949
00:44:21,040 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: is one of these teams that has been good offensively,

950
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 2: Like they just put up two over two expected goals

951
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 2: against Cadiz on Saturday, and you know, they are top

952
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 2: ten and expected goals shot for ninety, progressive passes and

953
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 2: dribbles and expected threat and most importantly they've played four

954
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 2: matches against the bottom half of the table and they've

955
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,880
Speaker 2: created six point four expected goals in those matches. Now

956
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 2: they're taking on Elmeriat team that has set up very

957
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,800
Speaker 2: heavy towards the counter attack, like they have the highest

958
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 2: direct speed like their bottom five and pass per sequence.

959
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 2: And I'll be honest, they have kind of been struggling

960
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,959
Speaker 2: offensively since Mr. Sidiq left the club for Real Associated,

961
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 2: but in their last two their last two matches have

962
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 2: they have put in good offensive performances. They put up

963
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 2: one point three expected goals against Biacano created a big

964
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 2: scoring chance. Then their last match on Sunday against Realbatiz,

965
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 2: they again put up one point three expected goals and

966
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: created a big scoring chance and did have nine penalty

967
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,840
Speaker 2: box shots. So when these two teams faced off in

968
00:45:15,880 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: the submit of Vision last season, al Miria won the

969
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: first meeting two to one. There were three point three

970
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 2: seven expected goals created. Second meeting Jerona won won nothing,

971
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: but again three point three to three expected goals were

972
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 2: created in the match, So I have two point eight

973
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 2: expected goals for this match. We're still pretty close in

974
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,400
Speaker 2: the season where we can use the priors from what

975
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 2: happened last season, so over two and a half goals

976
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 2: sitting at plus one twenty right now, which I think

977
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 2: is a fantastic price. You know Info goal has you

978
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 2: know over two and a half projected that even money

979
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: as well, So I think there's some good value here

980
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 2: on this sover All right with that, let's move to

981
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 2: our favorite underdogs three leg money line underdog Parlay as

982
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 2: always reminds you to tread lightly with these the pain

983
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 2: will come.

984
00:45:56,680 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: Anthony, your favorite underdog.

985
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we had two draws again. We love

986
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 3: to draw.

987
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: These two nil nails. Was it two nil nails?

988
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 3: Yep? Yeah, yeah, with us and Newcastle? I think so. Yep.

989
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 3: I don't remember what Beds was, but I.

990
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 2: Think we all all mentioned it here.

991
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 3: When I get to my underdog, Oh it was my work,

992
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 3: I wasn't it.

993
00:46:19,360 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll go Aheadland, I'll start, go ahead, but go ahead.

994
00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 3: Are they on the island. It's not on the island.

995
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 3: They're not them. Go ahead Leads plus two thirty. I

996
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 3: just talked about it, so I won't go too far

997
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,920
Speaker 3: into this, but I was extremely encouraged by the perfemanths away

998
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 3: from our at home. I do have question marks about

999
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 3: whether they can replicate it on the road, but I

1000
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:42,160
Speaker 3: make leads three tenths of a goal better, and I

1001
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 3: have this lined as a pick them so at plus

1002
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:48,800
Speaker 3: two thirty. I love leads here. We all love leads.

1003
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 3: We all we all love love leads. We all love leads.

1004
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 3: We all love Brentford plus four hundred against Chelsea the Bees.

1005
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 3: They've been one of the better teams at punching up

1006
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,400
Speaker 3: and they've given basically every top six side some issues

1007
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 3: since being promoted before last season.

1008
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 4: And this is a classic cell high spot on Chelsea.

1009
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,439
Speaker 4: Who closes minus one oh five favorites on the road

1010
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 4: against Villa. There minus one fifty four against Brentford. Brentford

1011
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 4: are better than Villa right now. I don't I don't

1012
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 4: get this one. It's a bad spot for Chelsea. They're

1013
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 4: dealing with a lot of injuries. They played five matches

1014
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 4: since October first they got in Manchester United on deck.

1015
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 4: This is a wonderful opportunity to get back on Brentford

1016
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 4: plus four hundred at home BJ.

1017
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:35,640
Speaker 1: What do you have?

1018
00:47:36,000 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 2: Valencia plus two twenty on the road at Sevilla. This

1019
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 2: Valencia team is actually resurging to being you know what

1020
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,640
Speaker 2: Valencia was in the past. Like they are very very

1021
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,239
Speaker 2: good offensively. They've created sixteen big scoring chances in their

1022
00:47:49,280 --> 00:47:51,799
Speaker 2: last six matches, like their top five and expected goals,

1023
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 2: their top five and shots for ninety which is a

1024
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 2: really big because over the past few years under different managers,

1025
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: they were, you know, kind of sitting back in four

1026
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: four who's not really creating much, is playing ultra conservative.

1027
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,760
Speaker 2: And then they bring in a new manager, Gottuso from

1028
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 2: who previously managed Napoli and AC Milan, and they have

1029
00:48:10,080 --> 00:48:14,520
Speaker 2: just resurged in this great offensive force now and let's

1030
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,480
Speaker 2: be honest, I mean Savilla, they allowed three big scoring

1031
00:48:17,520 --> 00:48:19,640
Speaker 2: chances to my Orca and they scored on their first

1032
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: shot of the match in the fifty fifth minute, like

1033
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,839
Speaker 2: it was so dumb that entire match. This team still

1034
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 2: has major problems, like they created I mean they created

1035
00:48:27,440 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 2: point two xg against my Orca on the island. And

1036
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,880
Speaker 2: now they're sitting at you know, plus one twenty favorites.

1037
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 2: You're at home against a Valencia team that is starting

1038
00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:38,799
Speaker 2: to resurge up and be in the conversation to be

1039
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:42,320
Speaker 2: one of the top seven six teams in La Liga.

1040
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:45,600
Speaker 2: So Valencia should be not the plus two twenty five

1041
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: against Sevilla. So give me the bats, right, the Black Bats,

1042
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 2: I think is the nickname of Valencia at plus two twenty.

1043
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,760
Speaker 4: Gennaro Gutuso was on the two thousand and six Italian

1044
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 4: World Cup side. Hearing the nickname brief Heart during a

1045
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 4: stinted Rangers, which brings me pass.

1046
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it brings me.

1047
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,960
Speaker 3: Back to look up his controversy list. That's a good one.

1048
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 4: Yeah. Yeah, he's got some stuff under the hood. But

1049
00:49:11,480 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 4: it just brings me back to a question I posed

1050
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,359
Speaker 4: last week about Italian World Cup winners who then played

1051
00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 4: in the Premier League.

1052
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:19,840
Speaker 1: We're still looking for one o.

1053
00:49:20,080 --> 00:49:23,800
Speaker 4: Our producer had mentioned that Madarassi he played for Everdence,

1054
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:26,400
Speaker 4: but that was before he won the World Cup, so

1055
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 4: it is such a strange phenomenon. Anyways, that wraps up

1056
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 4: our underdogs, Brentford leads and Valencia fifty two to one.

1057
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 4: Should the three of them win, they will hit This

1058
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 4: one feels good, Yeah, it feels great. This is the one.

1059
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 4: All right. Let's move on to our favorite bets for

1060
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,759
Speaker 4: the Premier League during the midweek. Here, Anthony, real quick,

1061
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 4: what's yours?

1062
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 3: Renford plus one minus one thirty at home against Chelsea.

1063
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,399
Speaker 3: The moves are overvalued. They only got one shot from

1064
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 3: their two star forwards. Obama Yang and Harts. They have

1065
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,440
Speaker 3: major injury issues in the midfield and now in defence

1066
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 3: with Rhees James out and Golo Conte out. There's definitely

1067
00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 3: some question marks about potterball and how well it's actually

1068
00:50:07,680 --> 00:50:09,960
Speaker 3: working and how he's putting this all together. Playing Kukare

1069
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 3: as a left center back, playing Chilwell with him, they

1070
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: didn't look good particularly at all in this match. Now

1071
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 3: they go to Brentford, who have been the Giant Killers,

1072
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 3: who have been excellent at home, especially against big six sides.

1073
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,360
Speaker 3: I like the Bees plus one. Don't see Chelsea getting

1074
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 3: margin here on the road. Anthony's favorite underdog was Leeds.

1075
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,760
Speaker 3: His best bet was Brentford. My favorite underdog is Brentford.

1076
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 3: My best bet Leeds United taking on Leicester City. There

1077
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:39,560
Speaker 3: plus two thirty on the money line. The Peacocks their

1078
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 3: flood team, no getting around it.

1079
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 4: How about they're better than Leicester City. So this line

1080
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 4: already looks a little off with that in mind, But

1081
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 4: then you bring in the fact that theo's Leicester City

1082
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:55,320
Speaker 4: defense is below average and basically everything except for the

1083
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 4: one thing that they do all right is defending crosses.

1084
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 4: Leeds doesn't do that at six in non penalty expecta

1085
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 4: goles created on the season per ninety four leads United.

1086
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:08,359
Speaker 4: They should give this defense a ton of trouble plus

1087
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 4: Leeds is defensive flaws shouldn't come into question with the

1088
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 4: way that this Lester attack is running. So I like

1089
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 4: the Peacocks plus two thirty on the money line, I

1090
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:18,959
Speaker 4: guess Leicester City BJ bring us.

1091
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 2: Home OTT andam drawing no bad at plus one point

1092
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:24,520
Speaker 2: fifteen at Old Trafford. This speaking of flawed teams, this

1093
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 2: Manchester United team continues to prove that they are not

1094
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 2: as good as the market says they are. They were

1095
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 2: even with Newcastle on Sunday Final XTSG United creates one

1096
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,400
Speaker 2: point one expected goals. Well, that's great, but zer point

1097
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:39,719
Speaker 2: four to five. It came off the Marcus Rashford header

1098
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: in the ninety fourth minute, which means they created around

1099
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 2: zero point six XG for the other ninety three minutes

1100
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,600
Speaker 2: off of fourteen shots. That's not impressive at all. Now

1101
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 2: they're going to go play a Tottenham team that is

1102
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 2: only allowing point nine expected goals per ninety minutes against

1103
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 2: teams not named Arsenal, who is the number one team

1104
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 2: in the Premier League and big scoring chance slowed. Oh

1105
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 2: and United is InCred reliant on big scoring chances. They're

1106
00:52:01,840 --> 00:52:04,799
Speaker 2: ninth and shots fifth and big scoring chances. Even if

1107
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,880
Speaker 2: you think Tottenham is not the plus one xg differential

1108
00:52:07,920 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 2: per ninety team that they were under Conte last season,

1109
00:52:11,000 --> 00:52:13,439
Speaker 2: if we're just taking this year's numbers, Tottenham is sitting

1110
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,239
Speaker 2: at plus point five. Actually, differential per ninety United is

1111
00:52:16,239 --> 00:52:18,320
Speaker 2: at minus point one. Even if you would factor in

1112
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 2: a little bit of home field advantage for United, there

1113
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 2: is no reason why Tottenham should not be favored in

1114
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 2: this match. So give me Tottenham, Come on you. Spurs

1115
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 2: draw no bet at plus one fifteen.

1116
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 4: On that wonderful note, we end this episode of wondergl

1117
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 4: for Anthony d Bunda, for BJ Cunningham. I'm Michael Lee,

1118
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:34,920
Speaker 4: buff bets of luck.

1119
00:52:34,920 --> 00:52:37,479
Speaker 1: With all your bets. We'll see you again on Thursday morning.