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Speaker 2: We look across the political landscape today, it sure feels
Speaker 2: like however important Iowa will be, it's gonna be a blip.
Speaker 2: A week from today, it will be all about New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: Candidates will leave Iowa that night and we'll go to
Speaker 2: ground in the Granite State where they will stay. They
Speaker 2: will live for the better part of a week here
Speaker 2: leading up to voting. We're going to be there with
Speaker 2: you through all of it. And of course everyone thinks
Speaker 2: they know what's going to happen here, right. Of course,
Speaker 2: Donald Trump has been looking pretty comfortable in the polls,
Speaker 2: and there's been a great storyline behind the Nicky Haley
Speaker 2: campaign showing surging polling in New Hampshire. And we have
Speaker 2: two competing surveys today that will satisfy everyone depending on
Speaker 2: what you're looking for here. One of them is from
Speaker 2: Suffolk University the Boston Globe in USA. Today, Nicky Haley
Speaker 2: twenty points behind Donald Trump forty six to twenty six
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire. A lot of folks would say a
Speaker 2: potentially insurmountable lead. Well, look at what CNN is talking
Speaker 2: about with the University of New Hampshire. The survey center
Speaker 2: they're at with their own poll shows Nicki Haley cutting
Speaker 2: it too. Donald Trump's lead in New Hampshire cutting it
Speaker 2: the lead to single digits, thirty nine percent to thirty
Speaker 2: two percent, with Nicki Haley up a dozen points since
Speaker 2: that last poll in November. That's the storyline we've been
Speaker 2: hearing more about. And while we'll talk about this with
Speaker 2: Rick and Genie, had wanted to talk to Chris Galderi
Speaker 2: because he's there and we're going to talk to him
Speaker 2: when we get to New Hampshire, of course, political scientist
Speaker 2: and professor at Saint Anselin University. Chris, it's great to
Speaker 2: see you. I don't know if you're going to be
Speaker 2: leaning toward one poll or the other, but I wonder
Speaker 2: if we're getting closer to reality here. You know, we
Speaker 2: were talking about national polls and a lot of pie
Speaker 2: in the sky stuff six months ago, but it's about
Speaker 2: time for people to vote. What's New Hampshire think, Well.
Speaker 3: I think New Hampshire is at a point where the
Speaker 3: folks who don't pay that much attention or who are
Speaker 3: only sort of engaged with the process or actually starting
Speaker 3: to tune in. And that's one of the things that
Speaker 3: makes primaries so interesting. They can be volatile because you
Speaker 3: have a lot of late deciders. If you look at
Speaker 3: polling from past years, there are a lot of folks
Speaker 3: who don't decide who they're going to vote for until
Speaker 3: they are getting in the car or closing the front
Speaker 3: door to go to their polling place, which means stuff
Speaker 3: like Iowa's going to matter what people say in debates,
Speaker 3: what they don't say in debates, if they have gaffes
Speaker 3: or inspiring moments or that sort of thing really can
Speaker 3: lead to big shifts late in the game.
Speaker 2: Well, really interesting here, and I know that Iowa will
Speaker 2: have some level of influence. New Hampshire has its own
Speaker 2: brand here and as they say, Iowa picks corn, New
Speaker 2: Hampshire picks presidents. But to what extent does momentum coming
Speaker 2: out of Iowa impact the results in New Hampshire.
Speaker 3: Well, I think a lot depends on what the story
Speaker 3: coming out of Iowa is. Right now, a lot of
Speaker 3: folks are speculating that Haley actually passed DeSantis for second place.
Speaker 3: If she does that, I think that again contributes to
Speaker 3: this narrative, the storyline that Haley is on the rise,
Speaker 3: and I think that will make there'd be a lot
Speaker 3: of pressure to look at New Hampshire as essentially a
Speaker 3: two candidate race, as between Trump and Haley. I think
Speaker 3: in those circumstances, we'd be having a lot of conversations, well,
Speaker 3: what does Ron DeSantis do? What does Chris Christie do? So,
Speaker 3: you know, and think back to nineteen eighty four Gary
Speaker 3: Hart's big splash. He came out of Iowa down to
Speaker 3: walter Mondale by thirty points, but he was in second
Speaker 3: place and nobody expected that. So I think, you know,
Speaker 3: in a sense, the expectations game is kind of kind
Speaker 3: of goofy. That's a technical term, but I think it
Speaker 3: can really affect what we'll be talking about and how
Speaker 3: we'll be talking about this race in that week between
Speaker 3: Iowa and New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: You think back to twenty sixteen, and I remember talking
Speaker 2: to you then how different the race was. Donald Trump
Speaker 2: was in New Hampshire a lot. He decided to really
Speaker 2: plant his flag there. It was town Hall every other weekend.
Speaker 2: How much time has he spent there in the state,
Speaker 2: because it's been a storyline that he's barely gone to
Speaker 2: Iowa and it looks like he may well win the caucuses.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he has not been here a lot. I think
Speaker 3: the number of events he has held in this state
Speaker 3: is in the mid single digits. I want to say,
Speaker 3: like five, six, seven, something like that. But it's been
Speaker 3: nothing like the on the ground presence that he had
Speaker 3: eight years ago. That said, his campaign is much more professional,
Speaker 3: much more for want of a better term, normal, than
Speaker 3: it was in twenty sixteen. So there really is an
Speaker 3: organized Trump campaign in terms of phone calls and mailers
Speaker 3: and door knocking and that sort of thing. His ads
Speaker 3: are all over TV and all over streaming. And you know,
Speaker 3: my five year old was watching a Minecraft video and
Speaker 3: got Trump and Haley videos during.
Speaker 2: It, so you know they're really target voters there. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they're hidden Minecraft this off. That's pretty creative. I have
Speaker 2: to admit that you're getting young people where they're actually
Speaker 2: working here. And I was visiting family in New England,
Speaker 2: not even in New Hampshire, but in Massachusetts, knowing they
Speaker 2: have to buy the Boston market and I mean, it's
Speaker 2: every other commercial. I can't imagine the level of exhaustion
Speaker 2: right now when it comes to the ads. Who's on
Speaker 2: TV the most right now? In New Hampshire, Chris.
Speaker 3: I'd say it's a toss up between Trump and Haley.
Speaker 3: I've barely seen anything for DeSantis. I think I've seen
Speaker 3: maybe one Christy ad. But really, if you're just watching TV,
Speaker 3: it's it's at least the stuff I'm watching looks like
Speaker 3: a two candidate race.
Speaker 2: How about that? Are you leaning towards one pole or
Speaker 2: the other here? That Donald Trump is in fact enjoying
Speaker 2: a single digit lead, as one pole would suggest, or
Speaker 2: a twenty point spread like we're seeing in the other.
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's really tough. I can envision either
Speaker 3: one being being more accurate. You know, the Haley numbers
Speaker 3: aren't actually off that much between There's not that much
Speaker 3: difference twenty six thirty two is it's sort of like
Speaker 3: the far end of the margin of error. What I
Speaker 3: think is more interesting is you have one poll where
Speaker 3: Trump is under forty. If Trump is under forty on
Speaker 3: primary night, we're going to be talking about how much
Speaker 3: he underperformed. Why wasn't he able to close the deal here,
Speaker 3: that sort of thing. If he's coming in forty six percent,
Speaker 3: we'll say, wow, he's nearly at fifty percent. If there's
Speaker 3: an anti Trump coalition, it didn't show up tonight. So
Speaker 3: I think, you know, depending on which one of these
Speaker 3: is closer to what we get two, I think two
Speaker 3: weeks from tonight, two weeks from tonight, we'll be having
Speaker 3: really different conversations about the race.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I understood, And that's what is It's just incredible
Speaker 2: about this stage of the race and knowing that this
Speaker 2: could go in a couple of different directions here, likely
Speaker 2: in the next couple of weeks. Chris, last time we
Speaker 2: were there twenty twenty, it was, of course the Democrats
Speaker 2: we were really talking about here. And I'll never forget
Speaker 2: talking with Joe Biden, who was said to be on
Speaker 2: the verge of dropping out of the race. Was supposed
Speaker 2: to be an exit interview and what happened between New
Speaker 2: Hampshire and South Carolina was remarkable as just one candidate
Speaker 2: after the other dropped out of the race. Are we
Speaker 2: going to see something like that? Not that there are
Speaker 2: that many lefts. What happens to this field after New
Speaker 2: Hampshire or could something happen before New Hampshire. Could Chris Sanunu,
Speaker 2: for instance, taught Chris Christine to drop it out of
Speaker 2: this race. That's a great question.
Speaker 1: I think.
Speaker 3: You know, with Christy, the vibe I get is that
Speaker 3: he's attracting the really dedicated anti Trump voters, the people
Speaker 3: who turned out and voted for Bill Weld in twenty twenty.
Speaker 3: And I think that's a fundamentally different approach and a
Speaker 3: fundamentally different group of voters than the ones who were
Speaker 3: being drawn to Haley, who's not attacking Trump, but you's saying,
Speaker 3: you know, he was fine in twenty sixteen, but we
Speaker 3: need a new generation, We need a younger voice, you know,
Speaker 3: that sort of thing, and really being very gentle and
Speaker 3: hands off with her criticisms of him. You know, I
Speaker 3: think if Christy were to get out, you know, I
Speaker 3: think that would probably boost Haley. I don't think there
Speaker 3: are many Christie voters whose second choice is Donald Trump.
Speaker 3: Then you've got Rond de Santis. You know, he was
Speaker 3: pulling I think five percent in one of these polls,
Speaker 3: I think the CNNU and h Pole. I don't know
Speaker 3: that there are many Rond de Santis voters whose second
Speaker 3: choice is Nicky Haley. Uh So if you're if you're
Speaker 3: Nicky Haley, you probably you know, you'd like Christy to
Speaker 3: get out. Uh you wouldn't mind Asa Hutchison, who's still
Speaker 3: in there getting like one or two percent, to get
Speaker 3: out and endorse you. But you probably want DeSantis to
Speaker 3: stick around. You probably figure the guy who's running as
Speaker 3: Trump isn't without Trump is probably drawing, if drawing votes
Speaker 3: away from Trump and not from you.
Speaker 2: When does it get crazy? Is it a week from
Speaker 2: today when all the campaigns will be there. You can't
Speaker 2: get a booth of the Red Arrow Diner.
Speaker 3: Yeah. When you wake up on the Tuesday after the
Speaker 3: Iowa caucus, you will discover that your friends and neighbors
Speaker 3: have covered the state in signs for their preferred candidates.
Speaker 3: You will hear about which candidate had a you know,
Speaker 3: three am landing at Manchester Airport or the private airfield
Speaker 3: and in conquered. That is when the circus comes to
Speaker 3: town and sets up on Elm Street in Manchester. It's
Speaker 3: when people bring out the livestock with you know, shirts
Speaker 3: and sweaters with candidates names on them.
Speaker 2: A are we going to get a Trump? A rally
Speaker 2: on the eve. Have you heard anything about it?
Speaker 3: I have not heard anything, but that's what he did
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty. In twenty twenty, he held a rally
Speaker 3: at a at an arena in downtown Manchester and basically
Speaker 3: just sort of he didn't dominate coverage, but he took
Speaker 3: a lot of wind out of the sales of Democrats
Speaker 3: who were hoping that they would have the front page
Speaker 3: of the Union Leader and the Conquered Monitor and other
Speaker 3: local papers to themselves on primary day.
Speaker 2: Hey, Chris, I'm looking forward to seeing you up there.
Speaker 2: I appreciate you coming on today, Chris Caldieri with two
Speaker 2: weeks to go st Anselm College political science professor. Great
Speaker 2: to see you as we asemble our panel. They'll be
Speaker 2: there too, of course. Rick Davison Genie Shanzano are with
Speaker 2: us here. Our signature panel back together again. And I
Speaker 2: wonder Genie your thoughts on these poles here, because this
Speaker 2: is the menu of options. Is Donald Trump going to
Speaker 2: walk into New Hampshire with the commanding leader? Is Nicky
Speaker 2: Haley truly nipping at his heels as this CNN U
Speaker 2: n H pole would tell us, Yeah, I mean it
Speaker 2: is fascinating.
Speaker 4: You know, when we look at where she has been
Speaker 4: and where she has come, her star is rising at
Speaker 4: just the right time. And so I do think Trump
Speaker 4: really can have a run for his money from Nicky Haley.
Speaker 4: Of course, the CNN poll one pole, but again, when
Speaker 4: you look at her trajectory over time, she really is
Speaker 4: narrowing this gap. And you know, it's really in keeping
Speaker 4: with something that I've heard and I'm sure other pollsters
Speaker 4: have heard, which is when people have been door knocking
Speaker 4: in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina and elsewhere
Speaker 4: on of Nikki Haley, they have sometimes heard people who say,
Speaker 4: I do support the former governor. I'm not sure I
Speaker 4: want to say that publicly necessarily, because of course, to
Speaker 4: go against Trump is to support a Democrat. I mean,
Speaker 4: that's how it's been laid out, and of course those
Speaker 4: people don't feel that way at all. So I keep wondering,
Speaker 4: do we see a growing silent majority who once this
Speaker 4: is unleashed and these polls come out and she does
Speaker 4: if she does better in Iowa then expected comes in
Speaker 4: a strong two, does that sort of unleash this for her?
Speaker 4: So I think there's real possibility and momentum with Haley
Speaker 4: at this point.
Speaker 2: Rick, I know you're taking the Haley campaign seriously and
Speaker 2: you've told us that we all should here in New Hampshire.
Speaker 2: Does that mean that you buy into this single digit
Speaker 2: spread that we're seeing in one of two polls today.
Speaker 5: You know that's a pretty aggressive poll. Part of what
Speaker 5: makes me concerned about that. You know, an h pole
Speaker 5: is Ramaswami at eight. We haven't seen Ramaswami above five
Speaker 5: since the campaign began, and so that one may be
Speaker 5: a little too close. Look the un H pole. You know,
Speaker 5: Trump has come down three points and Nicky has gone
Speaker 5: up too since the last poll UNH took. So the
Speaker 5: trend is the right trend if you're looking for a
Speaker 5: closing race, and I think both of those poles represent
Speaker 5: a narrowing of the field.
Speaker 2: And Haley is up twelve since the November poll by
Speaker 2: U n H. Just to give people a sense of
Speaker 2: the field. By the way, we've been, you know, talking
Speaker 2: about the two front runners. If you will, it's Trump
Speaker 2: thirty nine in this case, as I mentioned, Haley thirty two,
Speaker 2: but then it's Christy twelve, DeSantis five. To Rick's point,
Speaker 2: Ramaswami has eight points in this poll, Rick, do you
Speaker 2: buy the logic that Chris Calderi was saying that it's
Speaker 2: actually good for Nikki Hailey to keep Roni Santis in
Speaker 2: this race right now?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I mean, thing is about the lanes, and when those
Speaker 5: lanes converge, those votes scatter. And Ron DeSantis I totally
Speaker 5: agree with Chris. His votes going to Trump. Uh, Christy's
Speaker 5: votes going to to to Nicky. And when you look
Speaker 5: at head to heads that I've seen, uh, it's it's
Speaker 5: a dead heat. And so uh yeah, the ideal scenario
Speaker 5: is Christy gets out and and and and Ron stays
Speaker 5: in and that advantages Nicki Haley. But of course none
Speaker 5: of that she can control. So she's just got to
Speaker 5: do the best she can in Iowa. And and frankly,
Speaker 5: that may be the worst thing for her because if
Speaker 5: she beats Ron de Santis and Iowa, it could force
Speaker 5: him out of the race and all those votes in
Speaker 5: New Hampshire go to go to Trump.
Speaker 2: Find an interesting DeSantis and Nicki Haley will debate tomorrow
Speaker 2: night in Des Moines. Genie Ramaswamy did not qualify after
Speaker 2: all the time he spent in Iowa. Is that campaign done?
Speaker 4: Not According to Ramaswami, he has been out and so active.
Speaker 4: I think he went to all ninety nine counties twice,
Speaker 4: if I understand. So he says he's seeing this thing
Speaker 4: through and he doesn't care about this CNN debate, is
Speaker 4: what he says.
Speaker 2: Well, I guess not. We'll see how that goes. With
Speaker 2: only two on the stage Tomorrow night, Donald Trump won't
Speaker 2: be there. He's going to counter program with the town
Speaker 2: Hall on Fox. And so the wheel goes round. We're
Speaker 2: gonna have a lot more with our panel coming up
Speaker 2: here because the deal on Capitol Hill to avoid a
Speaker 2: government shutdown, the so called deal, is now hitting the
Speaker 2: campaign trail. We'll have that next. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: So much for avoiding a government shutdown. We'll see there
Speaker 2: are eight legislative days to make it happen, and I'll
Speaker 2: let everyone know we're going to talk to Congressman Brian
Speaker 2: Style coming up at the top of the hour forty
Speaker 2: minutes from now. The Republican from Wisconsin is in the
Speaker 2: middle of all this, as House members returned to Washington
Speaker 2: today with eight legislative sessions to figure out the path
Speaker 2: forward here. This of course would be funding the government,
Speaker 2: and we've got the staggered or laddered cr in effect now,
Speaker 2: so the first four bills will expire toward the end
Speaker 2: of this month and the rest at the beginning of February.
Speaker 2: We do not have a lot of time to play with.
Speaker 2: But there was a big deal around this time yesterday,
Speaker 2: as I told you, big agreement on top line spending levels,
Speaker 2: an agreement between Chuck Schumer and Speaker Mike Johnson. The
Speaker 2: same exact agreement, or as Jack Fitzpatrick called it, reagreement
Speaker 2: that Kevin McCarthy made with Joe Biden back in June. Now,
Speaker 2: some say this is progress, helped to avoid a shutdown,
Speaker 2: helps the odds, But if you're on Dea Santis, no way.
Speaker 2: The governor of Florida, of course, Republican presidential candidate weighing
Speaker 2: in took video from an interview, wrote around it with
Speaker 2: a nice post on Twitter to let everybody know, this
Speaker 2: is just top line spending levels. Now, this is not
Speaker 2: the budget that you're not even real Republicans.
Speaker 6: This is just selling out everything that they ran on
Speaker 6: in twenty twenty two. You know, they said that they
Speaker 6: were going to change the way Washington operates. They said
Speaker 6: that they were going to hold these agencies accountable. You know,
Speaker 6: that's the thing the House of Representatives is supposed to
Speaker 6: because there are what the power of the purse be,
Speaker 6: the people's redress for when government misbehaves.
Speaker 2: Did you get that? I don't know what Donald Trump
Speaker 2: is going to say about this either. He's talking to
Speaker 2: Speaker Mike Johnson. They say on an almost daily basis.
Speaker 2: Let's reassemble the panel for their take. Genie Schanzano and
Speaker 2: Rick Davis Bloomberg Politics contributors are with us here. Rick,
Speaker 2: it's an opportunity for candidates, I guess, to make some
Speaker 2: news if you're on the trail. But what does it
Speaker 2: mean for the debate here in Washington?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Look, I think that it scrambles a deck a little bit.
Speaker 5: The reality is that Ronda Santis has been a fading
Speaker 5: star for months. He's trying to find some mojo for
Speaker 5: his campaign in Iowa at the very last minute, and
Speaker 5: there probably aren't a lot of House members wondering what
Speaker 5: his opinions are on their legislative issues. So he's kind
Speaker 5: of doing this for his own self interests, his own
Speaker 5: campaign interests in Iowa, not to actually influence anything in
Speaker 5: the House of Representatives. And I'm sure the House of
Speaker 5: Representatives look at it exactly the same way.
Speaker 2: Well, he's certainly sounding a lot like Representative Chip Roy,
Speaker 2: who's endorsed Rhonda Santi's genie, has been traveling with him
Speaker 2: in Iowa and he has said the same thing. Close
Speaker 2: the border or close the government, it's one or the other. Well,
Speaker 2: other candidates weigh in on this, Yeah, and.
Speaker 4: You know here we're seeing exactly what we fear. I mean, yesterday,
Speaker 4: we were kind of optimistic that maybe they could get
Speaker 4: this thing done in eight days now, but as the
Speaker 4: clash of twenty four and the budget process come together,
Speaker 4: it makes it all that much more difficult. And of
Speaker 4: course ron de Santis is one thing. But to your point,
Speaker 4: when when Donald Trump weighs in and he has already
Speaker 4: started talking about the fact he doesn't want to be
Speaker 4: Herbert Hoover. So let's just get this economic downturn done
Speaker 4: right now. I mean, this is where we are headed.
Speaker 4: And I think this is very, very difficult for somebody
Speaker 4: like Ron Johnson. You just I feel like reminding Ron
Speaker 4: de Santis if he wants Republicans to control DC, they've
Speaker 4: got to win elections right now. Democrats control the how
Speaker 4: the Senate rather and the White House, and so you
Speaker 4: got to deal with them. And you know, Ron DeSantis
Speaker 4: seems not to want to acknowledge that. And of course
Speaker 4: Donald Trump doesn't either.
Speaker 2: Hubert Hoover thing. I don't so who's Donald Trump? And
Speaker 2: he did somebody buy him a book that there's like
Speaker 2: a maybe an American history book. He's been We had
Speaker 2: the Civil War last weekend. Now this I don't know.
Speaker 2: I wonder if Nikki Haley will take a stand on it.
Speaker 2: She was asked a lot of questions last evening on
Speaker 2: Fox Rick it was a town hall. They're each getting
Speaker 2: their turn here and Brett Bhaer I thought it was
Speaker 2: pretty interesting because it's an issue that we don't hear
Speaker 2: anything about. We talk a lot about Donald Trump, we
Speaker 2: talk a little bit about the border, talk a little
Speaker 2: bit about the economy. We never talked about the big
Speaker 2: stuff that could in fact supersede all of these issues
Speaker 2: like Social Security and Medicare. If you want to have
Speaker 2: a budget debate, let's talk about that. And I have
Speaker 2: to admit it was not lost on me when I
Speaker 2: heard our own interview be invoked here. We talked to
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley back the end of August, and that was
Speaker 2: my question for her at the time. It came up
Speaker 2: in that town hall meeting on Fox last evening. Just
Speaker 2: a taste here from Brett Bhaer as he's talking to
Speaker 2: Nicki Haley.
Speaker 3: So, Governor DeSantis is hitting you for claiming the retirement
Speaker 3: age is quote way way too low, he said, quote
Speaker 3: I don't know why she's saying that. So are you
Speaker 3: saying that?
Speaker 7: I have never once said that?
Speaker 2: Well, wait, any way, way in Bloomberg and oh yeah,
Speaker 2: that Bloomberg interview, did you not say that? Let's spin
Speaker 2: back the tape again to the twenty fourth of August
Speaker 2: when Nikki Haley joined us here on Bloomberg. It was
Speaker 2: on balance of power on Bloomberg TV.
Speaker 7: Remember, we don't touch anyone's retirement or anyone who's been
Speaker 7: promised in but we go to people like my kids
Speaker 7: in their twenties when they're coming into the system, and
Speaker 7: we say the rules have changed. We change retirement age
Speaker 7: to reflect life expectancy instead of cost of living increases.
Speaker 7: We do it based on inflation. We limit the benefits
Speaker 7: on the wealthy, and we expand Medicare advantage plans.
Speaker 2: What's the right age there that Investador?
Speaker 7: Well, I think we have to do the numbers. We've
Speaker 7: got to figure out what it is. But what we
Speaker 7: do know is sixty five is way too low and
Speaker 7: we need to increase that. We need to do it
Speaker 7: according to life expectancy.
Speaker 2: Sixty five is way too low and we need to
Speaker 2: increase that. I guess rettbar was onto something. We appreciate
Speaker 2: their watching and listening. By the way, and I wonder
Speaker 2: what the panel thinks about this, Rick, This is not
Speaker 2: something that's resonating on the campaign trail. How come we're
Speaker 2: not talking about it outside of these brief moments.
Speaker 5: You know, I think Republics and the Democrats alke have
Speaker 5: gotten so afraid of mentioning entitlement programs that never comes up.
Speaker 5: I mean, wasn't that long ago when John McCain ran
Speaker 5: commercials in New Hampshire. Part of the run up to
Speaker 5: his victory and a comeback campaign was all about South,
Speaker 5: you know, say, solving social security problems. And so now
Speaker 5: it's like lock box is back. You can't touch it,
Speaker 5: you can't talk about it. So look, as you point
Speaker 5: out very responsibly, when you don't talk about entitlement reform,
Speaker 5: you're not talking about really changing government, and you're just
Speaker 5: nibbling around on the edges. And and until we find
Speaker 5: a leader who's not afraid of tackling the hard stuff,
Speaker 5: we're stuck in that lock box.
Speaker 2: I guess that's right. I think he's talking about al
Speaker 2: GORGINI are Democrats going to be the ones to open
Speaker 2: lock box?
Speaker 4: You know, I am so proud of Brett Baer for
Speaker 4: listening to you, Joe and listening to Bloomberg. And you
Speaker 4: know who else I think is going to listen is
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, Because as Nicky Haley closes these polls, he
Speaker 4: will pull out that Bloomberg quote and throw it right
Speaker 4: back at her. This is, you know, like Rick Scott
Speaker 4: all over again. And I'll bet the Democrats as well,
Speaker 4: Joe Biden and the Democrats will hit her on this
Speaker 4: should she continue rising in the polls. You know, Rick
Speaker 4: Davis is right, it is you know, the reality is
Speaker 4: good economics on her part, bad politics. This is an
Speaker 4: absolute loser. This is why Rick Scott walked back from it.
Speaker 4: Nicki Haley now walking back from it. But you've got
Speaker 4: her on tape, Joe, So I think they're all going
Speaker 4: to be pulling that tape.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see if they use it. I'd love to
Speaker 2: follow up on that conversation with her if the opportunity arises.
Speaker 2: We'll see you in Iowa, Madam, Ambassador Rick. No one
Speaker 2: knows New Hantral politics better than you. What does Nicki
Speaker 2: Haley do? Or on de Santis for that matter, when
Speaker 2: they arrive that morning after or even that night of
Speaker 2: the Iowa caucuses. You've got a week to play with.
Speaker 2: What do you do with the time?
Speaker 5: Fundraising is over, So you've got to hit town hall
Speaker 5: after town hall, public event after public event. The good
Speaker 5: news is everybody's paying attention. As Chris said earlier, all
Speaker 5: the voters have tuned in, so walking into a cafe,
Speaker 5: going and doing a town hall. From what I'm hearing
Speaker 5: on the ground, her town halls are on fire. Her
Speaker 5: crowd size is double tripled and quadrupled, and she needs
Speaker 5: to keep that momentum up and that means six eight
Speaker 5: events a day, a lot of drop ins. So she
Speaker 5: just needs to hope that the roads are clear, the
Speaker 5: skies are blue, and you know she can work it
Speaker 5: hard all the way to election day.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: Talking about the weather, we hit this for a minute, Genie,
Speaker 2: and you actually broke my heart a little bit because
Speaker 2: I can see the pain as we look at the
Speaker 2: forecast for Iowa. Do you know that they're they're canceling
Speaker 2: campaign events today because they're getting a foot of snow
Speaker 2: or something there. This might affect your your packing plans.
Speaker 4: It totally has.
Speaker 1: Joe.
Speaker 4: I've already been in touch with a friend of mine
Speaker 4: who's in Des Moines. She said, it's freezing. It's gonna
Speaker 4: get worse. I need to go out and get some
Speaker 4: more hats, gloves. I don't know long John's It's gonna
Speaker 4: be cold.
Speaker 2: I'm not good with that, but I don't think James
Speaker 2: for mister James is opening us every morning in our
Speaker 2: little show chat here with the forecast. I'm gonna just
Speaker 2: look back. Daily des Moines forecast Monday, a high a
Speaker 2: high of minus four and a low of minus thirteen.
Speaker 2: That's not even with the wind chill. But we shall prevail.
Speaker 2: We're bringing the shows on the road, and we're gonna
Speaker 2: join you from both Iowa and New Hampshire six days
Speaker 2: to des Moines, two weeks to Manchester.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listening on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington alongside Kaylee Liones, who just walked in
Speaker 2: the room. It's good to see you because we're looking
Speaker 2: for some news here on the very same story that
Speaker 2: we were talking about around this time yesterday, whether we
Speaker 2: can avoid a shutdown. The House is back today, yep,
Speaker 2: which is why we're glad to bring you a conversation
Speaker 2: in a moment with Congressman Brian's style. Although I don't know,
Speaker 2: I get the sense that maybe he never leaves Washington.
Speaker 2: Is he one of those lawmakers He's got a family.
Speaker 2: I know he goes home. Either way, Eight legislative days
Speaker 2: to figure out a. I won't say the word stop
Speaker 2: gap because Mike Johnson said he didn't want to do that.
Speaker 8: He did, yes, that he wouldn't do that, But will
Speaker 8: he have to? What do you know, well, Senator John
Speaker 8: thun So, this is in the other chamber. The Senate
Speaker 8: may be singing a different tune on this than those
Speaker 8: in the House, but he says lawmakers likely will need
Speaker 8: to pass a short term stop gap to avoid a
Speaker 8: government shutdown. Okay, so exactly what Mike Johnson said he
Speaker 8: didn't want to do. And yet, knowing you have to
Speaker 8: reconcile for to appropriations bills between the House and the
Speaker 8: Senate with potentially conservative policy writers questions around the border
Speaker 8: as well, there might not be much of a choice
Speaker 8: in the matter.
Speaker 2: You know who just got back from the border. As
Speaker 2: the aforementioned Brian's style, we should bring him in now. Kaylee,
Speaker 2: the congressman from Wisconsin is with us, of course, chair
Speaker 2: of the Admin Committee, serves on Financial services and a
Speaker 2: reliable voice here on Bloomberg. Congressman, it's good to see you.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to reality here. We've been defying odds and
Speaker 2: logic for weeks and weeks in the House. What do
Speaker 2: you think about this idea. If there's something like a
Speaker 2: deal in place, could your speaker get away with a
Speaker 2: continuing resolution? Would you support it?
Speaker 9: Well, our best case scenario is not have to kick
Speaker 9: the can down the road, But shutting the federal government
Speaker 9: down benefits no one hurts a lot of people, and
Speaker 9: at the end of the day, it costs more. And
Speaker 9: so I'd rather see us get to a deal. We've
Speaker 9: been allowing ourselves to kick the can down the road.
Speaker 9: That's not productive. Hope full we have a deal where
Speaker 9: we can actually fund this year's appropriations bills, because it's
Speaker 9: not only the top line amount of money, which is
Speaker 9: a cut to non defense, non veterans discretionary spending that
Speaker 9: hasn't been done in about six years, but it's also
Speaker 9: the spending priorities that are in there we're breaking away
Speaker 9: and the priorities that were loaded in during Democrat at
Speaker 9: one party control.
Speaker 8: Well, be that as it may, Congressman, there are plenty
Speaker 8: of your colleagues who are not satisfied with the top
Speaker 8: line figures. It seems this House Freedom Caucus certainly isn't.
Speaker 8: How do you expect Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, to
Speaker 8: navigate this and keep his job while doing so well.
Speaker 9: A lot of us would like to see the funding
Speaker 9: continue to go down. Unfortunately, we have a Democrat in
Speaker 9: the White House and a Democrat run Senate that is
Speaker 9: going to continue to push back and push for higher
Speaker 9: spending levels. This is where the deal that was cut
Speaker 9: under the FRA is the numbers that are before us
Speaker 9: and getting the overall spending package done. And again it's
Speaker 9: not the top line numbers, it's also the broader policies
Speaker 9: that are included in the spending build. Those details have
Speaker 9: yet to come out, but if we take a full
Speaker 9: step back, we also have to recognize that we're only
Speaker 9: having this conversation over about twelve point five percent of
Speaker 9: the entire federal spending over the course of a given year.
Speaker 9: If we want to really hammer out the broader challenge
Speaker 9: that we're facing from a spending perspective, we need to
Speaker 9: look at the seventy five percent of the spending that's
Speaker 9: on autopilot right now. And I'd love to see us
Speaker 9: take this moment and really move forward with a debt
Speaker 9: commission and really force us to have the adult conversation
Speaker 9: about where we're at. From a physical perspective, you know.
Speaker 2: It's funny with all the talk in Washington about aging politicians,
Speaker 2: we're not old enough to have that adult conversation. It
Speaker 2: feels like, Congressman, you'd be your heart would be warmed
Speaker 2: to know that we actually talked about Social Security and
Speaker 2: Medicare on this program last hour, and the point of
Speaker 2: the conversation was that no one will talk about it.
Speaker 2: It is the third rail. It's in the lock box.
Speaker 2: But those are the cards that you're adult right now.
Speaker 2: And as you look down the barrel here of a
Speaker 2: difficult negotiating session, it looks like there's another uprising on
Speaker 2: the right. The Freedom Caucus does not like it. And
Speaker 2: now Ron de Santis, the governor and presidential candidate, is
Speaker 2: coming out against this agreement between the Speaker and Chuck Schumer,
Speaker 2: the FRA deal. Will that have an impact on the
Speaker 2: result in the House.
Speaker 9: I don't know that the presidential politics over the course
Speaker 9: of the next few weeks will have a significant impact
Speaker 9: on the negotiations are going to take place on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 9: I think at the end of the day, a lot
Speaker 9: of people are frustrated with where we're at from a
Speaker 9: spending level. They take it out on the twelve point
Speaker 9: five percent of the budget that probably gets the most airtime.
Speaker 9: It's important that we cut that spending, which we're doing
Speaker 9: in this We could have the debate about how far
Speaker 9: we need to cut it. I'd like to see it
Speaker 9: go further, but again, we're negotiating with Democrats in the
Speaker 9: White House and Democrats in the Senate, and shutting down
Speaker 9: the federal government at the end of the day is
Speaker 9: not a winning policy at the end of the dayay,
Speaker 9: when every time that has been done the end result
Speaker 9: is more spending rather than less spending. It's a path
Speaker 9: that at the end of the day doesn't lead you
Speaker 9: to the conservative goal that people are setting out to
Speaker 9: try to achieve.
Speaker 8: And yet there are some members of the House who
Speaker 8: are currently saying shut down the border or shut down
Speaker 8: the government, no security, no funding, these kind of ideas. Congressman,
Speaker 8: that would suggests that if the House doesn't get what
Speaker 8: it wants in terms of border reform, they would like
Speaker 8: government funding at least for a time to cease. And
Speaker 8: you speak of negotiations that have to happen between the
Speaker 8: White House and the Senate. The White House and the
Speaker 8: Senate are already trying to iron out a border security
Speaker 8: deal as part of this supplemental funding request. Can you
Speaker 8: commit to voting for whatever agreement they come to in
Speaker 8: the name of bipartisan cooperation.
Speaker 9: But I'm hopeful that we see some form of an
Speaker 9: agreement come out of these negotiations. I want to read
Speaker 9: it before i'd commit to it. But there's clearly a
Speaker 9: need to restructure and reform our border policies. This administration
Speaker 9: has been very aggressive from day one, where they stopped
Speaker 9: border wall construction to send a global signal that the
Speaker 9: US Mexico border is unsecure and individuals are able to
Speaker 9: cross it. We got to end the abuse of the
Speaker 9: parole system. We got to end catch and release, reinstate
Speaker 9: stay in Mexico, immediately restart border wall construction, and if
Speaker 9: we do that, we could get a significant handle on
Speaker 9: the border crisis that's playing out. That's impacting communities all
Speaker 9: across the United States, not just our nation's largest cities.
Speaker 9: It's impacting smaller communities like a city called Whitewater in
Speaker 9: Wisconsin in my district, but has fourteen thousand people and
Speaker 9: now has it roughly estimated by the chief of police,
Speaker 9: one thousand migrants now living.
Speaker 2: Where are they living.
Speaker 9: All throughout the city there was you know, there's a
Speaker 9: housing that was available. Many of these individuals are living
Speaker 9: and reasonably unsafe living conditions.
Speaker 4: Has been a huge.
Speaker 9: Burden on the school district. We're over three hundred students
Speaker 9: have entered the school district. Again in the small town
Speaker 9: need English as the second lange, which some of the
Speaker 9: dialects some of the students speaks, primarily from Nicaragua in Venezuela,
Speaker 9: don't match some of the Spanish language teachers in the
Speaker 9: broader area. To burden on the police department, and it's
Speaker 9: a huge challenge, and again the challenge that we see
Speaker 9: on a lot of our larger media networks that focus
Speaker 9: in on our nation's largest cities Chicago, New York, Denver
Speaker 9: missed the fact that this is impacting every community in
Speaker 9: the United States, including smaller communities in Wisconsin. Which is
Speaker 9: why my trip to the border, I think was so relevant.
Speaker 9: Is we got to change the policies that this administration
Speaker 9: continues to implement.
Speaker 2: Let's just stick with that for one minute, because you
Speaker 2: mentioned parole, which according to all reports is the big
Speaker 2: sticking point here. If you managed to increase funding for security,
Speaker 2: tighten the definition of asylum and get some of the
Speaker 2: other elements you're talking about without the parole reform, would
Speaker 2: that be something that could pass the House.
Speaker 9: Well, all of these pieces interact together, and again I
Speaker 9: want to be able to get to us by we
Speaker 9: can read the final negotiation. But reforming the prole system
Speaker 9: is really important here and the reason for that is
Speaker 9: many individuals right now or there's a catch and release
Speaker 9: policy being pushed by this administration. So after seventy two
Speaker 9: hours of after entering the country illegally, a vast number
Speaker 9: of these individuals are released with a freedom of movement
Speaker 9: with a date to appear in court, often three or
Speaker 9: four years out. So what we need to do is
Speaker 9: actually adjudicate these cases on the spot. And the abuse
Speaker 9: that's occurring is the overwhelming majority of these are not
Speaker 9: actually valid asylum claims. The challenge is the ability to
Speaker 9: process those under our current system is delayed, often three,
Speaker 9: four or more years, which exacerbates the problem.
Speaker 8: Well, there is a certain coorus at least in the
Speaker 8: House that is saying HR two contains many of these policies,
Speaker 8: Therefore HR two should be what passes or something very
Speaker 8: very similar to it. Yet we know that the HR
Speaker 8: two was actually dead on arrival in the Senate when
Speaker 8: you passed it months ago go. Are you concerned that
Speaker 8: there won't be enough Republican members of the House that
Speaker 8: are willing to support not just a border deal, but
Speaker 8: potentially whatever funding agreement be a at a continuing resolution
Speaker 8: or actual appropriation bills, that once again it will be
Speaker 8: Democrats that carry this over the finish line, and that
Speaker 8: as a result, Speaker Johnson is going to be in jeopardy.
Speaker 9: Well, an incredibly narrow majority like we have right now,
Speaker 9: getting anything done is incredibly difficult. I think people are
Speaker 9: aware the Speaker Johnston has been dealt to difficult hand,
Speaker 9: and he's negotiating valiantly to try to bring the spending
Speaker 9: down and address the border crisis. I would have loved
Speaker 9: to have seen the Senate take HR two and put
Speaker 9: it on the floor and amend it as they see fit.
Speaker 9: What the Senate has really done has not allowed this
Speaker 9: to play out on the floor of the Senate so
Speaker 9: that people can see where their senators stand, has released
Speaker 9: to really important policy provisions. I'd also mention Kailey that
Speaker 9: the border crisis has gotten significantly works over the past
Speaker 9: handflow months, and so the political dynamic in the Senate
Speaker 9: has changed, and I think that is causing a greater
Speaker 9: sense of urgency and understanding that action has to be taken.
Speaker 9: It was just last month that three hundred thousand individuals
Speaker 9: illegally entered the United States and Americans half the population
Speaker 9: of the city of Milwaukee coming in in just a month,
Speaker 9: and so we're in a situation where this is untenable.
Speaker 9: People are becoming more aware of that in maybe the
Speaker 9: political dynamic and the Senate as such, that we're going
Speaker 9: to be able to actually get substantive order security across
Speaker 9: the line.
Speaker 2: It sure has been seeming like a kungressman. But Senator
Speaker 2: Langford was sound a pretty downbeat when he left a
Speaker 2: briefing with some House members yesterday, and he was specifically
Speaker 2: concerned about being able to craft something that Democrats could
Speaker 2: also vote for, knowing that there's going to be an
Speaker 2: effort starting tomorrow to impeach the Homeland Security Secretary, who
Speaker 2: was actually at the table with James Langford and the
Speaker 2: other negotiators here is this the right time to be
Speaker 2: impeaching the secretary knowing that he's, as Langford said, simply
Speaker 2: carrying out the policies of this administration.
Speaker 9: Well, he's done a pretty abysmal job of enforcing border security.
Speaker 9: He's been less than honest before Congress when he came
Speaker 9: before us and said in his own words that the
Speaker 9: border was secure when we know that that is not true.
Speaker 9: And so I think applying pressure onto the secretary is
Speaker 9: really important here to get the enforcement of the laws
Speaker 9: around the books, to put pressure on the Biden administration
Speaker 9: to change course. And so we're going to have to
Speaker 9: continue to push on DHS to change the policies that
Speaker 9: they're implementing right now. But the one part that I
Speaker 9: think is relevant here is simply removing him doesn't solve
Speaker 9: the problem wholesale, because all it will do is allow
Speaker 9: a new individual to come in to continue to exacerbate
Speaker 9: the bad policies the administration. It's why actually passing this
Speaker 9: from the legislative standpoint at the end of the day
Speaker 9: is so imperative.
Speaker 8: Congressman, we could talk to you about the border and
Speaker 8: those who are enforcing or not is security all day,
Speaker 8: but there is actually something else I want to get
Speaker 8: your take on. Knowing you sit on financial services and
Speaker 8: this is an issue that you pay a lot of
Speaker 8: attention to a spot Bitcoin etf rumor has that the
Speaker 8: SEC could actually approve one or many for the first
Speaker 8: time ever by the end of the day tomorrow. Would
Speaker 8: that improve your view of the SEC under Gary Gensler
Speaker 8: as a regulator.
Speaker 9: What so much of the broader crypto industry needs is
Speaker 9: that actually simply rules of the road so they can operate,
Speaker 9: and continuing to allow the SEC and other agencies to
Speaker 9: create policy through enforcement is a really bad practice. So
Speaker 9: if we are in a position where're actually allowing companies
Speaker 9: to be able to operate here in the United States
Speaker 9: rather than pushing them abroad to conduct their business, that's
Speaker 9: a step in the right direction. But broadly speaking, I
Speaker 9: think we'd be best served by having a set of
Speaker 9: rules in place that companies can then know that they're
Speaker 9: operating in the sandbox of regulatory safety, so they can
Speaker 9: do the innovation and development here in the United States
Speaker 9: of America. Failure to do that will continue to push
Speaker 9: this development in countries outside the United States, which will
Speaker 9: have negative long term consequences.
Speaker 2: Well, while we're introducing new topics to our conversation here, Congressman,
Speaker 2: I have to ask you, as the chair of the
Speaker 2: Admin Committee, what your thoughts are, and I realized that
Speaker 2: you don't oversee the Pentagon, but your thoughts on this
Speaker 2: whole issue involving the whereabouts and the chain of command,
Speaker 2: the communication or lack thereof that has surrounded the Secretary
Speaker 2: of Defense, Lloyd Austin. We've not been able to get
Speaker 2: answers to most any of our questions from the Pentagon.
Speaker 2: Here there are a lot of folks wondering why days
Speaker 2: passed without anyone knowing that he had been admitted to
Speaker 2: the hospital. And I wonder, as chair of a House committee,
Speaker 2: if you have a plan, for instance, if you were
Speaker 2: incapacitated or sick, what happens when the chairman cannot attend
Speaker 2: work one day?
Speaker 9: What played out of the Defence Department is incredibly concerning,
Speaker 9: and for particular a period of time where we have
Speaker 9: the global challenges that we're facing.
Speaker 2: It's a clear.
Speaker 9: Indication there's a significant lack of communication between the Defense
Speaker 9: Department in the White House. I think there needs to
Speaker 9: be significantly more transparency as to why this occurred and
Speaker 9: the House side. There's a simple chain of command. If
Speaker 9: the Chairman wasn't there, the next in line would be
Speaker 9: in the position to be able to step up and operate.
Speaker 9: But the failure and the lack of communication between our
Speaker 9: leading defense, the Chairman of Defense back with the White
Speaker 9: House is concerning. I think there needs to be a
Speaker 9: lot more transparency about what occurred and why it occurred.
Speaker 2: Congress, but it's good to see you, good luck in
Speaker 2: the debate, and we'd like to stay in touch with
Speaker 2: you as we learn more Congressman Brian's style of Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure
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