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Speaker 2: We had the voice of Kelly Grico with the questions
Speaker 2: that Tyler is presenting. We seek answers with the senior
Speaker 2: fellow for the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the
Speaker 2: Stimson Center. Kelly, it's great to have you back with
Speaker 2: us from your perch as a military strategist and knowing
Speaker 2: what we have already seen, of course take place in Ukraine.
Speaker 2: How impactful will this package be, if at all?
Speaker 3: Chris, thank you for having me in. Happy New Year.
Speaker 4: You know this is an expected aid package. It's an
Speaker 4: attempt by the Biden administration to send as much aid
Speaker 4: as possible for the next administration comes in.
Speaker 3: I think the impact it will have is more.
Speaker 4: About trying to sustain current Ukrainian operations, and that will
Speaker 4: be helpful to some extent because we're hearing increasingly stories
Speaker 4: about artillery shortage.
Speaker 3: In particular, But it won't do much.
Speaker 4: Ukraine is in a very difficult spot right now and
Speaker 4: is essentially slowly losing this war.
Speaker 2: I spoke recently with Melinda Herring at the Atlantic Council
Speaker 2: on the prospect of buying different gear, and this came
Speaker 2: off of a question I was asking Melinda about a
Speaker 2: post that Elon Musk had made suggesting we need to
Speaker 2: be investing more in unmanned technology drones. This, of course,
Speaker 2: this conflict in Ukraine has reinvented the drone on a
Speaker 2: military level. Here's what Melinda Herring had to say about
Speaker 2: our purchasing requirements going forward.
Speaker 5: Once the war Ukraine is over, Ukraine is going to
Speaker 5: be the leading player around the world with naval drones,
Speaker 5: long range drones and joe. They have huge capacity. That's
Speaker 5: another story that's not getting enough play. So the Ukrainians
Speaker 5: in the last year have maxed up their drone capacity
Speaker 5: internally in Ukraine, and they could increase it by a
Speaker 5: two thirds factor if they had more money.
Speaker 2: What do you make of that, Kelly Griico, the use
Speaker 2: of drones. Should we have been sending drones instead of
Speaker 2: other things like tanks in F sixteen's this whole time?
Speaker 4: Well, I think the issue is we actually don't really
Speaker 4: have the drones descend, as particularly the kinds of drones
Speaker 4: that Ukraine's using, these smaller quad copters, these racing drones,
Speaker 4: and even some of these long range drones. At the
Speaker 4: price points and the way that Ukraine's using them, we
Speaker 4: just don't have those. Believe it or not, China leads
Speaker 4: this market. Most of the commercial drones on the market,
Speaker 4: if you were to go to Amazon and try to
Speaker 4: buy one, are made by a company called Dji.
Speaker 3: It's a Chinese company, So we don't have it descend.
Speaker 4: And this is actually an area where we are really
Speaker 4: behind China and is a national security concern. So I
Speaker 4: think we've been giving things that play to our strengths.
Speaker 6: In terms of Ukraine.
Speaker 3: I don't think the.
Speaker 4: F sixteen's was a wise discuss decision, as we've discussed,
Speaker 4: but things like artillery anti tank weapons have been very helpful.
Speaker 2: I know you've had a very honest take on some
Speaker 2: of these programs, from the F sixteens to the Abrams tanks.
Speaker 2: So let's talk a bit about what's about to happen.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump says he can solve this war.
Speaker 7: On day one.
Speaker 2: We've seen a calcifying of lines in some areas. Some
Speaker 2: of Bloomberg's reporting would suggest that Russia is about to
Speaker 2: kick Ukraine out of the Kursk region. Who's got the
Speaker 2: stronger hand at the negotiating table.
Speaker 3: Clearly Russia has a stronger hand. As you suggested.
Speaker 4: They're pushing the Ukrainians in the Curse region. They've captured
Speaker 4: about forty percent of the territory that Ukraine took after August,
Speaker 4: and they're really pushing on don Boss. That's where I'm
Speaker 4: very concerned is the don Bos region in particular. There's
Speaker 4: a major city in the center of Doma's region that's
Speaker 4: a major logisticals hub and they're surrounding that and it's
Speaker 4: likely to fall. And we're seeing in all areas that
Speaker 4: they're really just pushing that front and Dawn Boss. So
Speaker 4: it's slowly but surely. You know, they're taking territory. It's
Speaker 4: very costly, but they're slowly winning this war. And so
Speaker 4: the Russians know that, and I think that they're going
Speaker 4: to play a very hard game in terms of any
Speaker 4: kinds of negotiations.
Speaker 3: I don't think we can end it in twenty four hours.
Speaker 4: I think we're likely there's a good chance we'll see
Speaker 4: a ceasefire this year, but not a real peace deal.
Speaker 2: Fascinating, so that could take more time. With that said,
Speaker 2: are the lines in place now the lines that we'll
Speaker 2: be drawn in a peace deal?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's you know, we've seen indications that
Speaker 4: that's probably going to be the case. Vice President Vance
Speaker 4: gave an interview in the fall where he suggested essentially
Speaker 4: a frozen conflict, freezing the territorial gains where they are.
Speaker 3: I think both sides recognize that.
Speaker 4: I think that's why, in particular, Russians are really pushing
Speaker 4: in the Dawnbass, even overcursed and recapturing Russian territory, They're
Speaker 4: prioritizing Ukrainian territory to try to gain as much territory
Speaker 4: as they can before that freeze happens.
Speaker 2: I want to ask you, Kelly Grico a little bit
Speaker 2: more about the DIB as Tyler Kendall was just reporting
Speaker 2: the defense industrial base that was a big part of
Speaker 2: the debate here right Getting this money cleared was a
Speaker 2: big reminder for some Republicans who had an allergy to
Speaker 2: sending more money to Ukraine that most of that cash
Speaker 2: was going to stay right here in the US. To
Speaker 2: go to American based defense contractors. But you just reminded
Speaker 2: us again of what we don't have. And in some
Speaker 2: cases it's not just drones, it's old fashioned stuff like shells,
Speaker 2: mortar rounds.
Speaker 7: What progress did.
Speaker 2: This Congress make in fixing that along with our defense partners.
Speaker 3: I don't think we made very much progress at all
Speaker 3: on these issues. You know, there are a couple issues here.
Speaker 4: One is that if you look at the budget consistently,
Speaker 4: we talk about munitions, the fact that we need munitions,
Speaker 4: especially long range missiles, but each of the services tends
Speaker 4: to cut the missiles in their budget and prioritize sort
Speaker 4: of the flashier, big spending programs, and so that's just
Speaker 4: an easy place where every year it gets cut, and
Speaker 4: so that's not helping in order to putting these kinds
Speaker 4: of purchases with companies so they actually build these missiles
Speaker 4: we need. And the other area I would just say
Speaker 4: is in terms of Ukraine, is that the kind of
Speaker 4: systems that are needed to fight a land war in
Speaker 4: Europe are very different from what's needed, for example, in
Speaker 4: the Endo Pacific, where it's primarily an air and maritime environment.
Speaker 4: So even if we are making more artillery for example, now,
Speaker 4: which is the case, it's not going to be all
Speaker 4: that useful probably if there's an Indo Pacific conflict.
Speaker 8: So we really need to.
Speaker 4: Think about where the defense industrial base needs to be
Speaker 4: scaled up and how to do that.
Speaker 7: That's a big conversation.
Speaker 2: I don't know if you see this administration getting closer
Speaker 2: to the mark on that, whether it's working with the Raytheons,
Speaker 2: or the lock keys, or or general dynamics of the world.
Speaker 7: What do you think.
Speaker 2: Is that a different story under a Trump administration than Biden.
Speaker 4: I think it is, and I'd say I'm actually a
Speaker 4: little optimistic about this because one of the things we've
Speaker 4: seen is not for the big primes, the companies you mentioned,
Speaker 4: I don't know how well they'll fare under the Trump administration,
Speaker 4: but there are a lot of Silicon Valley people that
Speaker 4: are backing the Trump administration. We've seen some of the
Speaker 4: recent appointments to DoD leadership positions are being given to
Speaker 4: tech investors defense industry executives, and so I think some
Speaker 4: of these newer startup defense techs are going to probably
Speaker 4: see a bigger role and access to actually more of
Speaker 4: the budget, and I think that would actually be a
Speaker 4: very good thing. For the reasons must emphasize, particularly that
Speaker 4: we need more drones and uncrewed systems in the US military,
Speaker 4: and these are the kinds of firms that can develop
Speaker 4: that and develop it quickly for the United States.
Speaker 7: It's a really important point.
Speaker 2: As we spend some time with Kelly Grico on the
Speaker 2: prospect for a peace deal in UCA, Bloomberg News sat
Speaker 2: down with Anthony Blinkin. Kelly, my colleague David Goura asked
Speaker 2: him about motivations at the bargaining table. Here is what
Speaker 2: we heard from the Secretary of State. This is just
Speaker 2: a couple of days ago on Bloomberg.
Speaker 9: In his mind is the recreation of a greater Russia.
Speaker 9: And you don't have to believe me, just read what
Speaker 9: he said.
Speaker 7: He's been very clear about it. He's failed in Ukraine.
Speaker 9: That proposition that he could erase Ukraine from the map
Speaker 9: subsume it into Russia has failed. And that's a result
Speaker 9: of the incredible courage of Ukrainian people, but it's also
Speaker 9: a result of the dozens of countries that we rallied
Speaker 9: in defense of Ukraine.
Speaker 2: Kelly, I won't ask you about the prospect of peace
Speaker 2: again but you're a military expert, a military analyst, and
Speaker 2: I wonder if that is in fact his goal, the
Speaker 2: recreation of a greater Russia, what that means for Russia
Speaker 2: as a military presence and a superpower in the world.
Speaker 6: Yes.
Speaker 4: I mean, it's clear that there's a notion here of
Speaker 4: some kind of greater Russia, or at least increase seeing
Speaker 4: Russian influence in its traditional neighborhood. And there's particular sensitivities
Speaker 4: around Ukraine, in part because it's the natural invasion pathway
Speaker 4: into Russia going back to the time of Napoleon. And
Speaker 4: so I think there is some truth to that, and
Speaker 4: I think the fact that Blincoln is right that he
Speaker 4: has failed in his goal in terms of taking Ukraine
Speaker 4: and bringing it into the Russian orbit, that is clearly failed.
Speaker 4: My criticism, though, of the to Blincoln and the Biden
Speaker 4: administration is that it endorsed Ukraine's maximalist aims in this
Speaker 4: war of taking back every inch of territory and returning
Speaker 4: to its nineteen ninety one borders, when that was never
Speaker 4: a realistic option. I wish they had been sending that
Speaker 4: message a lot more, that this was actually a victory
Speaker 4: for Ukraine.
Speaker 3: And actually not falling in four days.
Speaker 4: And perhaps if they had really gone more in that
Speaker 4: direction and been a little bit more realistic about expectations
Speaker 4: of what could be achieved, Ukraine today would actually be
Speaker 4: in a better position to negotiate a piece.
Speaker 2: We're out of time in one minute, Kelly. Is all
Speaker 2: the money gone in this Congress for Ukraine?
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean most I would say it's gone. And
Speaker 4: the question is will we ever see another bill like that?
Speaker 4: I am not particularly optimistic.
Speaker 7: I didn't think you would be.
Speaker 2: She's senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grant Strategy program
Speaker 2: at the Stibson Center. Kelly Greco, Thank you so much,
Speaker 2: Kelly for a smart year of analysis here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: We really do appreciate your take, be as we learned
Speaker 2: something whenever we talk to Kelly Grico about, of course,
Speaker 2: one of the most pivotal stories of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can
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Speaker 2: This is our New Year's broadcast New Year's Eve. I
Speaker 2: guess we're not going to be here tomorrow, so this
Speaker 2: is the last hour we're going to spend together at
Speaker 2: the end of a wild year in politics. Think of
Speaker 2: what we've gone through since the beginning of the year.
Speaker 2: From Des Moines, where we were packing our bags about
Speaker 2: a year ago, right now, to Manchester Super Tuesday, the
Speaker 2: Early States, Butler, Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Joe Biden drops out of
Speaker 2: the race. We're in Chicago straight through an election that
Speaker 2: turned so many expectations on their heads. And of course
Speaker 2: it happened in a year in which we watched the
Speaker 2: Speaker of the House dispatched, fired by members of his
Speaker 2: own conference, and so much division that followed. When our
Speaker 2: great producers asked me, who would you like to talk
Speaker 2: with on the last show of the year, we didn't
Speaker 2: have to think very hard about it, I said Frank
Speaker 2: Frank Luntz, founder CEO fil Inc. Political strategist. I'm supposed
Speaker 2: to say celebrity polster too, right, Frank.
Speaker 7: It's great to see you.
Speaker 2: I hope the holiday season is going well for you.
Speaker 2: Happy New Year in advance, with everything that I just said.
Speaker 2: Is our nation or less divided now than it was
Speaker 2: at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 6: Well, here's what's interesting. And you and I spend an
Speaker 6: afternoon in the freezing cold of Des Moines, Iowa. Your
Speaker 6: set was only one block from my hotel, and I
Speaker 6: almost didn't make it. And now we end the year
Speaker 6: so still so angry, with half of America in disbelief
Speaker 6: and the other half celebrating looking ahead to twenty twenty
Speaker 6: twenty five as being the best year ever. Are we divided? Yes?
Speaker 6: Are we polarized? Yes? Is there pressure to bring us together?
Speaker 6: Not really. Now that said, let me give you three
Speaker 6: findings over the last few days. Number one is that
Speaker 6: Donald Trump's popularities favorability is higher now than it was
Speaker 6: when he became president back in twenty seventeen. Number two,
Speaker 6: there are groups within the electorate, particularly Latinos, younger men,
Speaker 6: union members, who are considering voting Republican more so now
Speaker 6: than they ever have in modern times. And number three,
Speaker 6: the Democrats are divided as to what to do, how
Speaker 6: to move forward, And the only advice I can give
Speaker 6: them as we end this year is this idea being
Speaker 6: the resistance is not what America wants, even those that
Speaker 6: did not vote for Donald Trump, don't want resistance. What
Speaker 6: they want is an alternative vision, an alternative approach, And
Speaker 6: everyone across America watching right now want results, results that
Speaker 6: they can count on, results that are both meaningful and measurable.
Speaker 6: That's what the American people are asking for.
Speaker 2: Well, so then would it be a misstep for Democrats
Speaker 2: to not help elective Speaker of the House on Friday,
Speaker 2: knowing that Mike Johnson has four votes to play with Frank.
Speaker 6: Well Hakeem Jefferies is one of the best communicators in
Speaker 6: America today, and he has the ability to reach across
Speaker 6: the aisle. Whether he chooses to, it's probably The answer
Speaker 6: is probably no, because he has a different point of
Speaker 6: view than the Republicans, and it's not the job of
Speaker 6: the Democrats to help the Republicans. That said, it would
Speaker 6: be a shock and two tens of millions of Americans
Speaker 6: a disappointment if the Republican Party, after waiting this long
Speaker 6: to have a president, a Senate, and a House, end
Speaker 6: up tearing themselves apart. The American people want you to
Speaker 6: stand up for your convictions. They don't want you to
Speaker 6: give up on your beliefs. But they even more so
Speaker 6: want to get things done on immigration, They want to
Speaker 6: solve the border, on prices, they want to do policies
Speaker 6: that affect affordability, and they're just tired of this yelling
Speaker 6: and screaming in Washington, DC. That's the message that they
Speaker 6: need to take home.
Speaker 2: This New Year's even Well, so are we going to
Speaker 2: find a Republican conference that is united on Friday? Where
Speaker 2: of course, that's the intrigue right now is whether we're
Speaker 2: going to have multiple rounds. Maybe Mike Johnson can't survive
Speaker 2: the Tom Massey's or Chiff Roy's of the world, depending
Speaker 2: on how they end up voting. Or is there some
Speaker 2: real discord inside this Republican party despite the mandate that
Speaker 2: Donald Trump talks about.
Speaker 6: There is discord. And when your majorities are barely over
Speaker 6: a minority, you have nothing, You have no give. And
Speaker 6: the fact is that the public does support most of
Speaker 6: the Republican positions. But mark my words, you can play
Speaker 6: this tape again December thirty first, twenty twenty five. If
Speaker 6: they do not solve the border issue, if they do
Speaker 6: not bring down and permanently address affordability, and if they
Speaker 6: continue to fight among each other rather than get stuff done.
Speaker 6: The public will punish them on the reverse or on
Speaker 6: the contrary, if they do solve these challenges, you can
Speaker 6: see a Republican majority for years to come.
Speaker 2: Producers are pulling that cut right now, Frank, to play
Speaker 2: back a year from now, when you consider what we're
Speaker 2: left with here at the end of this year. I
Speaker 2: can't talk to Frank Lunz without getting philosophical. I just
Speaker 2: walked through a couple of pretty wild stages that we
Speaker 2: all experienced in the world of politics this year. They
Speaker 2: included two attempted assassinations, of course, a lot of arguing, Frank,
Speaker 2: and a lot of uncertainty as we went into this election.
Speaker 7: What is the electorate left with? How do we feel?
Speaker 2: Where are the bruises and the wounds that could be
Speaker 2: exposed in the new year.
Speaker 6: We have a look, okay, I'm going to just make
Speaker 6: everything worse. So if you want to be excited and optimistic,
Speaker 6: you need to. I don't want to tell them when
Speaker 6: to turn off their TV or their radio, but this
Speaker 6: is not going to go well for you. We have
Speaker 6: a lower degree of trust and confidence in our institutions
Speaker 6: than at any time in forty years. We do not
Speaker 6: believe we're being told the truth by the media, by journalists,
Speaker 6: by the politicians, and the various elites in America. And finally,
Speaker 6: we are the belief that the country is seriously off
Speaker 6: on the wrong track. Although those numbers have begun to
Speaker 6: change in the last two months. If you, I've been
Speaker 6: doing this now for over thirty five years and have
Speaker 6: not seen a time of more anger and division. But
Speaker 6: what concerns me the most is two data points. A
Speaker 6: third of America don't believe that they are invested in
Speaker 6: the future of the country, and two thirds of America
Speaker 6: believe that their country is not invested in their own future.
Speaker 6: That is horrific. We need to address that, not just
Speaker 6: for right now, but for the long term, because in
Speaker 6: the end, our economic success depends on it. Our political
Speaker 6: our democratic institutions depend on trust and confidence. We have
Speaker 6: to get to the truth, and we have to do
Speaker 6: so now because we've done so much damage to our
Speaker 6: politics and to our faith and confidence in the future.
Speaker 6: It's time to turn that around.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about who's invested in America, Because, as
Speaker 2: we've discussed, Frank, you spend a lot of time at
Speaker 2: West Point, and you've conducted some fascinating conversations with the cadets.
Speaker 7: They are focused groups that we can learn a lot from.
Speaker 2: You just had one recently that I had a chance
Speaker 2: to watch and it was inspiring, and you asked the
Speaker 2: cadets in the room, tell me what you love about America.
Speaker 2: Here's a sample of what frank her.
Speaker 6: Tell me what you love about this country?
Speaker 10: The values that we are a country build on values.
Speaker 10: We all hear officers and the cadets swhere knows to
Speaker 10: the Constitution that not to a president, not to a leader,
Speaker 10: and that the standard in America, because we're based on values,
Speaker 10: is set so high that we're striving towards more profession.
Speaker 6: So you just mentioned the Constitution.
Speaker 11: This is the single greatest misconception I think Americans have
Speaker 11: is that they don't realize that that's where your oath is.
Speaker 11: What does the Constitution mean to you?
Speaker 12: America?
Speaker 13: The Constitution means America because the Constitution is the soul
Speaker 13: of America.
Speaker 6: That's what it is.
Speaker 13: When the Constitution and its ideas were first written over
Speaker 13: two hundred years ago, it was an experiment. It was
Speaker 13: an idea. They didn't know it was going to work.
Speaker 13: Just like with the revolution. They had no idea if
Speaker 13: it was going to work or not, but they had
Speaker 13: the dream and they had the hope. And for me,
Speaker 13: that inspires my dreams and my hopes.
Speaker 7: Our future leaders.
Speaker 2: Talking with Frank Lunz at West Point, Frank Short of
Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers all in listening in the military
Speaker 2: on this New Year's Eve?
Speaker 7: What should they learn from this?
Speaker 6: That there was a group of young people and I swaw,
Speaker 6: I was not gonna be get emotional because it's the
Speaker 6: end of the year. I want you to have me back.
Speaker 6: But they inspire me, and they should inspire the country.
Speaker 6: Service with character and sacrifice, a commitment to the Constitution,
Speaker 6: not partisanship, not politics, but the most important document in
Speaker 6: global history. These cadets work harder, train harder, and make
Speaker 6: a greater effort for the country. And they do so
Speaker 6: because they love their country, and they will protect each
Speaker 6: other and they protect us. And Thet'll give you one
Speaker 6: phrase the Army Navy game. I wasn't too happy about
Speaker 6: the outcome this year, but this is the only game
Speaker 6: that is played for the people on the field. Commit
Speaker 6: to defend everyone in the stands and everyone watching. The
Speaker 6: people in the field will give their lives for the
Speaker 6: people watching. That's west point. That is what makes America great.
Speaker 6: And thank God and God bless these cadets because they
Speaker 6: were the last of.
Speaker 7: Them and you can bring this to us, Frank.
Speaker 2: They are indeed, and this is why we wanted to
Speaker 2: talk with Frank Luntz on our final show of twenty
Speaker 2: twenty four.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 7: At this important moment in time.
Speaker 2: Indeed, next month is going to be something We're going
Speaker 2: to witness a lot of important moments together. Barbara Perry
Speaker 2: is no stranger to them, director of Presidential Studies at
Speaker 2: the University of Virginia's Miller Center.
Speaker 7: She's with us now. Barbara, it's great.
Speaker 2: To see you before we get into the throes of
Speaker 2: January here. I would love to get your take on
Speaker 2: that remarkable moment that we will witness a presidential funeral,
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter's funeral with Joe Biden, his friend, the first
Speaker 2: man in the Capitol to endorse him for president delivering
Speaker 2: the eulogy.
Speaker 7: How fitting in your view.
Speaker 8: Very fitting, And I guess it does show the cycles
Speaker 8: of history and how one element so many years ago,
Speaker 8: so many decades ago, Joe Biden. And as he said
Speaker 8: in his remarks most recently after the president passed, he said,
Speaker 8: I told Governor Jimmy Carter that it wasn't going to
Speaker 8: really matter if I supported him, because I was so
Speaker 8: new to the Senate at that time. But I just
Speaker 8: think that it ties those two men together in the
Speaker 8: old school of politics, although Jimmy Carter was the fresh
Speaker 8: new view and voice of politics in nineteen seventy six,
Speaker 8: and so was Joe Biden, and so that the two
Speaker 8: should intersect at this moment, and right before another historic
Speaker 8: moment of only the second president to be inaugurated for
Speaker 8: a non consecutive second term. For those of us who
Speaker 8: study history and presidential history, it's a real moment.
Speaker 7: To reflect well, and from the history repeats itself.
Speaker 2: File the idea that there would not have been a
Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan without Jimmy Carter, similar to the idea there
Speaker 2: would not have been a Donald.
Speaker 7: Trump without Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: But of course Barbara there wouldn't been aj o'biden without
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Won't that be going through your mind when
Speaker 2: you watch them both on the West front of the
Speaker 2: Capitol on January twentieth.
Speaker 10: It will.
Speaker 8: Joe and I love to play out those what ifs.
Speaker 8: One little movement in history can reshape the world. I
Speaker 8: think it was Archimedes said, you know, give me a
Speaker 8: lever and a spot of the globe, and I can
Speaker 8: move the globe. And that's what This little series of
Speaker 8: steps or missteps in fact, can cause a change in history.
Speaker 8: I've also been thinking about the fact that Jimmy Carter
Speaker 8: was unlucky enough not to have one appointment to the
Speaker 8: US Supreme Court in his four years as president, one
Speaker 8: of only four presidents who fall into that unfortunate category
Speaker 8: as far as they're concerned. But he did name Ruth
Speaker 8: Bader Ginsburg to the Court of Appeals in Washington, d c.
Speaker 8: Which is most people know as a stepping stone to
Speaker 8: the Supreme Court. So in some ways, Jimmy Carter is
Speaker 8: responsible for Ruth Bader Ginsburg and for those people who
Speaker 8: support her and what she did. You can say that's
Speaker 8: a good thing, but you could also say that what
Speaker 8: if if she hadn't been there and therefore stayed on
Speaker 8: the court, and therefore cause Donald Trump in a way
Speaker 8: to take over the court. All sorts of different decisions
Speaker 8: would be coming down from the court. Perhaps so great,
Speaker 8: what if games? It's a parlor game for New Year's Eve?
Speaker 2: As an historian, Barbara, what do you make of the
Speaker 2: fact that there is so little talk right now about
Speaker 2: January sixth. Denver Wriggleman, the former congressman, who was, of
Speaker 2: course an advisor of the January sixth Committee.
Speaker 7: Was on the program yesterday.
Speaker 2: He said that goes for both Republicans and Democrats. Nobody
Speaker 2: wants to remember it, nobody wants to relive it. And
Speaker 2: we're about to have the certification of the vote next week.
Speaker 2: How should we be looking at this for the first time,
Speaker 2: well since the riot.
Speaker 8: First of all, former Congressman Rigelman was my congressman in
Speaker 8: the fifth District of Virginia, Charlottesville, where I'm based, although
Speaker 8: I'm in Louisville, Kentucky today. But you know, I actually
Speaker 8: don't agree with him on that. I think it would
Speaker 8: be as if we would say, you know, no one
Speaker 8: talks about the Civil War anymore. Let's just put that
Speaker 8: behind us. You know, those who forget history are doomed
Speaker 8: to repeat it.
Speaker 11: Now.
Speaker 8: I'm not arguing that we will this January sixth, but
Speaker 8: I don't think we should ever forget what happened that day.
Speaker 8: But it appears that seventy plus million Americans decided to
Speaker 8: put that behind them and vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Well, so is that just the process of compartmentalizing or
Speaker 2: did half the country think that it was in fact
Speaker 2: a tourist joint through the Capitol.
Speaker 8: I don't think half the country thought that. A major
Speaker 8: portion did perhaps that third or now maybe a slightly
Speaker 8: larger proportion of people say Donald Trump can do no
Speaker 8: wrong and did think it was just a nice tourist
Speaker 8: trip through the capital. But I think the other proportion
Speaker 8: of people who voted for him decided that that was
Speaker 8: something they could put behind them and that it didn't
Speaker 8: bother them enough not to vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: It's really remarkable when you consider the national dialogue from
Speaker 2: four you years ago as we now walk into the
Speaker 2: next January sixth, Barbara, Donald Trump will address the nation
Speaker 2: on that day on the twentieth, from the West front
Speaker 2: of the Capitol.
Speaker 8: What will he say, Oh, if I were only a soothsayer,
Speaker 8: I could make a killing in predicting.
Speaker 2: We remember a pretty dystopian speech on his first inauguration.
Speaker 7: Is that the trumpet.
Speaker 8: I've given up predicting Donald Trump. I suspect a lot
Speaker 8: of that inaugural address will be formed by Elon Musk,
Speaker 8: and so, you know, elements related to defense, elements related
Speaker 8: to America First, elements related to the common people. I
Speaker 8: think he'll be reaching out to them and saying that
Speaker 8: he's going to lower inflation and make America great again.
Speaker 8: And that's I think the theme that he will propound,
Speaker 8: but maybe it'll be in a slightly more positive vein
Speaker 8: than in twenty seventeen.
Speaker 2: I think he goes into the White House and pardons
Speaker 2: the January sixth offenders.
Speaker 7: On that same day.
Speaker 10: I do, I do.
Speaker 8: Yeah, he said that that's what he's going to do
Speaker 8: that I certainly believe that that's one of the truths
Speaker 8: that he has been propounding and that he'll make good
Speaker 8: on it.
Speaker 7: So it's already in the water.
Speaker 2: I guess people won't be surprised, But how will that
Speaker 2: play nationally? Having seen the reaction that we did, for instance,
Speaker 2: to Joe Biden pardoning his son Hunter.
Speaker 8: No, it's sort of less personal. I guess you would
Speaker 8: say for Donald Trump, and that these people aren't by
Speaker 8: kin or blood related to him, so it's it won't
Speaker 8: have that same impact. But on the also, the seventy
Speaker 8: plus million people who voted for Kamala Harris, and I
Speaker 8: presume many of those were very upset over what happened
Speaker 8: in the insurrection of January sixth of twenty twenty one.
Speaker 8: It will be shocking to think that those who so
Speaker 8: not only disrupted a constant tutional process but also attempted
Speaker 8: to tear down the very sacred precincts of our government
Speaker 8: and our politics. It'll be a sad day for them.
Speaker 2: Well, we're about to see a new construct, if I
Speaker 2: can use that word, in this administration, and I picture
Speaker 2: Barbara Perry writing new chapters here on what it is
Speaker 2: to be the executive in this country. When you've got
Speaker 2: the doge on one side, the Elon musk a Vegu
Speaker 2: Ramaswami experiment that is not actually a governmental department, and
Speaker 2: a series of czars who are going to be setting
Speaker 2: policy above and a side, I guess the actual cabinet
Speaker 2: officials who are confirmed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Is
Speaker 2: Donald Trump about to reinvent the presidency?
Speaker 8: I think so, And you spoke of a chapter that
Speaker 8: I could write. I did write a chapter in twenty
Speaker 8: seventeen and eighteen that's in a book that is called
Speaker 8: The Presidency and the Constitutional Crossroads that we believed at
Speaker 8: the Miller Center that we faced when Donald Trump was
Speaker 8: first elected. And I think he's made, if you think
Speaker 8: of a crossroads analogy, I think he's made a complete
Speaker 8: turn in our presidency as an office, but also in
Speaker 8: our constitutional construct that the founding fathers created, our system
Speaker 8: of checks and balances and balance of power, if I
Speaker 8: may use that term, of three branches of government that
Speaker 8: were meant to be more or less equal and that
Speaker 8: would check and balance each other. This concept of a
Speaker 8: unitary president, which is seemingly all powerful under Donald Trump,
Speaker 8: will utterly upturn and upset and overturn. I think the
Speaker 8: Framers and their intentions to prevent what they had fought
Speaker 8: against in the revolution against the King of England, and
Speaker 8: that was concentrated power. So that would be the epilogue
Speaker 8: to that chapter, in the start of a new chapter
Speaker 8: for me to write, what.
Speaker 7: Does that mean if you're s in Congress.
Speaker 2: If you're the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, or
Speaker 2: you're the Leader of the Senate John Thune, that means
Speaker 2: you don't have the power you thought you had.
Speaker 14: Barbara Well, we saw, for example, just recently, and you
Speaker 14: mentioned this in the previous segment about the budget negotiations
Speaker 14: just before Christmas.
Speaker 8: That there were members of Congress who stood up to
Speaker 8: the president and to Elon Musk, and they were members
Speaker 8: of the president's own party, those thirty eight Republicans who said, no,
Speaker 8: I ran on budget. It was discipline. So I'm not
Speaker 8: going to vote to raise the dead limit. So there
Speaker 8: will still be some people who will try to hold
Speaker 8: the line in Congress. And I'm not arguing that everything
Speaker 8: Donald Trump would put before it would get through. But
Speaker 8: you also have mentioned the pardon power, which is his
Speaker 8: sole power, executive order power, which is the president's sole power.
Speaker 8: So it's a bit worrisome for those of us to
Speaker 8: support the constitution and those balances of power and Jeckson balances.
Speaker 2: Well, let's get you back in twenty twenty five to
Speaker 2: talk about it, because it looks like, based on this calendar,
Speaker 2: the news is going to be fast and furious Barbara,
Speaker 2: it's been a wonderful year comparing notes with you and
Speaker 2: appreciate all of your insights in.
Speaker 7: Twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Barbara Perry, Director Presidential Studies, the University of Virginius Miller Center,
Speaker 2: thank you so much for being with us here on
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 2: I want to bring in the voice of Robert mcwherterour
Speaker 2: in our closing conversation here on the broadcast, because we
Speaker 2: spent so much time with Robert this year talking about
Speaker 2: the legal travails of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: By way of Hunter Biden, he is a criminal defense
Speaker 2: attorney who could be a political analyst, I think in
Speaker 2: anyone's book, Robert. It's great to see you. Welcome. There's
Speaker 2: actually a headline on Donald Trump's legal saga right now,
Speaker 2: the Federal Appeals Court upholding e Gen Carroll's five million
Speaker 2: dollars civil judgment against the president elect.
Speaker 7: They wanted a new trial to see out of the woods.
Speaker 15: Believe he still in the woods on that. I'm not
Speaker 15: sure when he will be sentenced on that. But the
Speaker 15: federal issues that he tried to raise going to the
Speaker 15: Second Circuit Court of.
Speaker 12: Appeals were very, very weak.
Speaker 15: And this is still a state case, and the federal
Speaker 15: Court of Appeals just wasn't going to wait in and
Speaker 15: help him from himself in this situation. So that's pretty
Speaker 15: much there, and I don't think the Supremes are going
Speaker 15: to take this one either.
Speaker 7: Well, you and I.
Speaker 2: Talked about a lot of cases, Robert, there were four specifically,
Speaker 2: I believe. Of course, we had the bragcase in New York.
Speaker 2: We went through the Jack Smith cases, if I can
Speaker 2: call them that. At this point, we had Georgia the document.
Speaker 2: It's January sixth. My god, here we are, a couple
Speaker 2: of weeks before the inauguration of Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: Doesn't have a mark on him.
Speaker 2: After all of that, did the media just get over
Speaker 2: as skis on Donald Trump's legal woes?
Speaker 12: Well, I think it gets a little complicated. That keeps
Speaker 12: them all straight.
Speaker 15: Look, the bottom line is him becoming the president elect,
Speaker 15: and he's going to take office of course, on January eighteenth.
Speaker 15: Really kind of puts a wrench in going forward with
Speaker 15: the cases.
Speaker 12: At least four.
Speaker 15: Now it's very hard to maintain a prosecution against the
Speaker 15: sitting president.
Speaker 12: Although not impossible.
Speaker 15: Remember back in the civil case of Paula Jones versus Clinton,
Speaker 15: the US Supreme Court said that that case could go forward,
Speaker 15: and that's a civil case. Presumably criminal case is more
Speaker 15: important and more public import so they presumably could go forward.
Speaker 15: But I think what's going to happen is everyone's just
Speaker 15: going to put a hold on this. Jack Smith is
Speaker 15: gone ahead and resigned because he wasn't going to give
Speaker 15: Donald Trump the satisfaction of.
Speaker 12: Firing him, and everything goes on hold.
Speaker 15: Donald Trump is out of office, either at the end
Speaker 15: of his term or if Donald Trump is impeached again
Speaker 15: and then convicted in the Senate, all these cases come
Speaker 15: back for him to face.
Speaker 7: Okay, what does that look like?
Speaker 2: Though, So we freeze everything in our game of musical
Speaker 2: chairs here on January twentieth. Which of these cases, how
Speaker 2: would they be pursued? Would you need a new special council,
Speaker 2: for instance, to go after Donald Trump on the documents.
Speaker 15: Case, well probably would, and also the January sixth case,
Speaker 15: so the election interference with the federal election interference case,
Speaker 15: now the New York hush money case. What the judge
Speaker 15: could do is impose a sentence and then suspend imposition
Speaker 15: or when he starts to serve the sentence for after
Speaker 15: his presidency or when he's no longer president. So he
Speaker 15: could impose a sentence of let's say what six months
Speaker 15: or whatever, or it could impose a fine and just
Speaker 15: suspend imposition of it. So the sentence just sits there,
Speaker 15: and it waits until Donald Trump is amendable to actually
Speaker 15: serve in the sentence. And that's the New York case.
Speaker 15: Presumably the same thing could happen in Georgia. See Donald
Speaker 15: Trump has no control over those two. Now with the
Speaker 15: federal cases, this raises this specter of can Donald Trump
Speaker 15: pardon himself? Which I think is an utterly absurd reading
Speaker 15: of the pardon power. I mean, if you, I mean,
Speaker 15: I don't know, if you're having an argument with your
Speaker 15: significant other, decide to pardon yourself.
Speaker 12: I'm not sure how far that's going to go. I mean,
Speaker 12: that's just going to be a problem.
Speaker 7: Right.
Speaker 15: So the pardon is something you do for somebody else,
Speaker 15: it's not something you give yourself. But if he wants
Speaker 15: to push that, it's hard to see what mechanism could
Speaker 15: challenge it. My guess is Jack Smith, being the careful
Speaker 15: lawyer that he is, has probably wrapped all of this
Speaker 15: up in a bow and a package for somebody else
Speaker 15: to pick up at a later date.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think my wife would go for that.
Speaker 2: Robert I might try it to find out. But in
Speaker 2: a couple of minutes we have left here. Let's talk
Speaker 2: about the pardons, not just the idea of Donald Trump
Speaker 2: partning himself, but what January sixth rioters, who else are
Speaker 2: we going to hear from when.
Speaker 7: He moves back into the White House.
Speaker 12: Well, he could do that.
Speaker 15: I think you're going to look for possible pardons of
Speaker 15: Peter Navarro and Stone, and he'd already commuted the sense
Speaker 15: of Stone. Anybody who's connected with him in his ambit,
Speaker 15: he's going to think that he should pardon, you know,
Speaker 15: and that would be really absurd. I mean, these are
Speaker 15: clear cases of criminal contempt of Congress with the action
Speaker 15: of Peter Navarro. But if you're Trump's friend, that's all
Speaker 15: that really matters, and if you join in the kind
Speaker 15: of Trump littany about the twenty twenty election, you somehow
Speaker 15: are beyond reproach.
Speaker 12: So that's what could happen that January sixth.
Speaker 15: Pardons are very interesting. There is a historical president for that.
Speaker 15: The first use of the pardon power was George Washington
Speaker 15: with Shay's rebellion. And this was a protest, although they
Speaker 15: did not directly lee democracy itself, but it was a
Speaker 15: protest and it was put down and in a way
Speaker 15: to kind of quell domestic insurrection and the kitchena problems.
Speaker 12: Washington exercide the parton power, which, by the way, as Alexander.
Speaker 15: Hamilton wrote in Federals seventy four, that is the use
Speaker 15: of the pardon power to get people past things.
Speaker 7: And go on right republic.
Speaker 12: So Donald could make that argument.
Speaker 15: The trouble is, unlike with George Washington, these are all
Speaker 15: Donald Trump's people, and he probably incited this riot and
Speaker 15: could be criminally prosecuted himself, which you could never say
Speaker 15: that about George Washington.
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