1 00:00:02,880 --> 00:00:10,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,160 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Emo CarPlay and then Roudoto with the 4 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,800 Speaker 2: We had the voice of Kelly Grico with the questions 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: that Tyler is presenting. We seek answers with the senior 8 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 2: fellow for the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the 9 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 2: Stimson Center. Kelly, it's great to have you back with 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 2: us from your perch as a military strategist and knowing 11 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 2: what we have already seen, of course take place in Ukraine. 12 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: How impactful will this package be, if at all? 13 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 3: Chris, thank you for having me in. Happy New Year. 14 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 4: You know this is an expected aid package. It's an 15 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,680 Speaker 4: attempt by the Biden administration to send as much aid 16 00:00:57,760 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 4: as possible for the next administration comes in. 17 00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 3: I think the impact it will have is more. 18 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:06,119 Speaker 4: About trying to sustain current Ukrainian operations, and that will 19 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 4: be helpful to some extent because we're hearing increasingly stories 20 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 4: about artillery shortage. 21 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 3: In particular, But it won't do much. 22 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 4: Ukraine is in a very difficult spot right now and 23 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 4: is essentially slowly losing this war. 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 2: I spoke recently with Melinda Herring at the Atlantic Council 25 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 2: on the prospect of buying different gear, and this came 26 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 2: off of a question I was asking Melinda about a 27 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 2: post that Elon Musk had made suggesting we need to 28 00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 2: be investing more in unmanned technology drones. This, of course, 29 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 2: this conflict in Ukraine has reinvented the drone on a 30 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: military level. Here's what Melinda Herring had to say about 31 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 2: our purchasing requirements going forward. 32 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 5: Once the war Ukraine is over, Ukraine is going to 33 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,920 Speaker 5: be the leading player around the world with naval drones, 34 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 5: long range drones and joe. They have huge capacity. That's 35 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 5: another story that's not getting enough play. So the Ukrainians 36 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 5: in the last year have maxed up their drone capacity 37 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 5: internally in Ukraine, and they could increase it by a 38 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,959 Speaker 5: two thirds factor if they had more money. 39 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: What do you make of that, Kelly Griico, the use 40 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,560 Speaker 2: of drones. Should we have been sending drones instead of 41 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,880 Speaker 2: other things like tanks in F sixteen's this whole time? 42 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 4: Well, I think the issue is we actually don't really 43 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,959 Speaker 4: have the drones descend, as particularly the kinds of drones 44 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 4: that Ukraine's using, these smaller quad copters, these racing drones, 45 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:40,519 Speaker 4: and even some of these long range drones. At the 46 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 4: price points and the way that Ukraine's using them, we 47 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 4: just don't have those. Believe it or not, China leads 48 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: this market. Most of the commercial drones on the market, 49 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 4: if you were to go to Amazon and try to 50 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 4: buy one, are made by a company called Dji. 51 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,280 Speaker 3: It's a Chinese company, So we don't have it descend. 52 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,359 Speaker 4: And this is actually an area where we are really 53 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,920 Speaker 4: behind China and is a national security concern. So I 54 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 4: think we've been giving things that play to our strengths. 55 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 6: In terms of Ukraine. 56 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 3: I don't think the. 57 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 4: F sixteen's was a wise discuss decision, as we've discussed, 58 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 4: but things like artillery anti tank weapons have been very helpful. 59 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:16,000 Speaker 2: I know you've had a very honest take on some 60 00:03:16,040 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: of these programs, from the F sixteens to the Abrams tanks. 61 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 2: So let's talk a bit about what's about to happen. 62 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 2: Donald Trump says he can solve this war. 63 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:26,399 Speaker 7: On day one. 64 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: We've seen a calcifying of lines in some areas. Some 65 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg's reporting would suggest that Russia is about to 66 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 2: kick Ukraine out of the Kursk region. Who's got the 67 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 2: stronger hand at the negotiating table. 68 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 3: Clearly Russia has a stronger hand. As you suggested. 69 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,360 Speaker 4: They're pushing the Ukrainians in the Curse region. They've captured 70 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 4: about forty percent of the territory that Ukraine took after August, 71 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 4: and they're really pushing on don Boss. That's where I'm 72 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 4: very concerned is the don Bos region in particular. There's 73 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 4: a major city in the center of Doma's region that's 74 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 4: a major logisticals hub and they're surrounding that and it's 75 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 4: likely to fall. And we're seeing in all areas that 76 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 4: they're really just pushing that front and Dawn Boss. So 77 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,880 Speaker 4: it's slowly but surely. You know, they're taking territory. It's 78 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 4: very costly, but they're slowly winning this war. And so 79 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 4: the Russians know that, and I think that they're going 80 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 4: to play a very hard game in terms of any 81 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 4: kinds of negotiations. 82 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 3: I don't think we can end it in twenty four hours. 83 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 4: I think we're likely there's a good chance we'll see 84 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 4: a ceasefire this year, but not a real peace deal. 85 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 2: Fascinating, so that could take more time. With that said, 86 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 2: are the lines in place now the lines that we'll 87 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 2: be drawn in a peace deal? 88 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's you know, we've seen indications that 89 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 4: that's probably going to be the case. Vice President Vance 90 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 4: gave an interview in the fall where he suggested essentially 91 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 4: a frozen conflict, freezing the territorial gains where they are. 92 00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 3: I think both sides recognize that. 93 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 4: I think that's why, in particular, Russians are really pushing 94 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,920 Speaker 4: in the Dawnbass, even overcursed and recapturing Russian territory, They're 95 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 4: prioritizing Ukrainian territory to try to gain as much territory 96 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 4: as they can before that freeze happens. 97 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:14,159 Speaker 2: I want to ask you, Kelly Grico a little bit 98 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,840 Speaker 2: more about the DIB as Tyler Kendall was just reporting 99 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,720 Speaker 2: the defense industrial base that was a big part of 100 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 2: the debate here right Getting this money cleared was a 101 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,760 Speaker 2: big reminder for some Republicans who had an allergy to 102 00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 2: sending more money to Ukraine that most of that cash 103 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: was going to stay right here in the US. To 104 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 2: go to American based defense contractors. But you just reminded 105 00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:35,360 Speaker 2: us again of what we don't have. And in some 106 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: cases it's not just drones, it's old fashioned stuff like shells, 107 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 2: mortar rounds. 108 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:42,599 Speaker 7: What progress did. 109 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 2: This Congress make in fixing that along with our defense partners. 110 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 3: I don't think we made very much progress at all 111 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 3: on these issues. You know, there are a couple issues here. 112 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 4: One is that if you look at the budget consistently, 113 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 4: we talk about munitions, the fact that we need munitions, 114 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 4: especially long range missiles, but each of the services tends 115 00:06:03,720 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 4: to cut the missiles in their budget and prioritize sort 116 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 4: of the flashier, big spending programs, and so that's just 117 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,240 Speaker 4: an easy place where every year it gets cut, and 118 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 4: so that's not helping in order to putting these kinds 119 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 4: of purchases with companies so they actually build these missiles 120 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 4: we need. And the other area I would just say 121 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 4: is in terms of Ukraine, is that the kind of 122 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 4: systems that are needed to fight a land war in 123 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 4: Europe are very different from what's needed, for example, in 124 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 4: the Endo Pacific, where it's primarily an air and maritime environment. 125 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 4: So even if we are making more artillery for example, now, 126 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 4: which is the case, it's not going to be all 127 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 4: that useful probably if there's an Indo Pacific conflict. 128 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:43,919 Speaker 8: So we really need to. 129 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 4: Think about where the defense industrial base needs to be 130 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,919 Speaker 4: scaled up and how to do that. 131 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 7: That's a big conversation. 132 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 2: I don't know if you see this administration getting closer 133 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 2: to the mark on that, whether it's working with the Raytheons, 134 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 2: or the lock keys, or or general dynamics of the world. 135 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 7: What do you think. 136 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:06,320 Speaker 2: Is that a different story under a Trump administration than Biden. 137 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 4: I think it is, and I'd say I'm actually a 138 00:07:09,440 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 4: little optimistic about this because one of the things we've 139 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 4: seen is not for the big primes, the companies you mentioned, 140 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 4: I don't know how well they'll fare under the Trump administration, 141 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 4: but there are a lot of Silicon Valley people that 142 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 4: are backing the Trump administration. We've seen some of the 143 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 4: recent appointments to DoD leadership positions are being given to 144 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 4: tech investors defense industry executives, and so I think some 145 00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: of these newer startup defense techs are going to probably 146 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 4: see a bigger role and access to actually more of 147 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 4: the budget, and I think that would actually be a 148 00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: very good thing. For the reasons must emphasize, particularly that 149 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 4: we need more drones and uncrewed systems in the US military, 150 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 4: and these are the kinds of firms that can develop 151 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:53,120 Speaker 4: that and develop it quickly for the United States. 152 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 7: It's a really important point. 153 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:57,760 Speaker 2: As we spend some time with Kelly Grico on the 154 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 2: prospect for a peace deal in UCA, Bloomberg News sat 155 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 2: down with Anthony Blinkin. Kelly, my colleague David Goura asked 156 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: him about motivations at the bargaining table. Here is what 157 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 2: we heard from the Secretary of State. This is just 158 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: a couple of days ago on Bloomberg. 159 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 9: In his mind is the recreation of a greater Russia. 160 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 9: And you don't have to believe me, just read what 161 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 9: he said. 162 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,679 Speaker 7: He's been very clear about it. He's failed in Ukraine. 163 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 9: That proposition that he could erase Ukraine from the map 164 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 9: subsume it into Russia has failed. And that's a result 165 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 9: of the incredible courage of Ukrainian people, but it's also 166 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 9: a result of the dozens of countries that we rallied 167 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 9: in defense of Ukraine. 168 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 2: Kelly, I won't ask you about the prospect of peace 169 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 2: again but you're a military expert, a military analyst, and 170 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,319 Speaker 2: I wonder if that is in fact his goal, the 171 00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 2: recreation of a greater Russia, what that means for Russia 172 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 2: as a military presence and a superpower in the world. 173 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:53,560 Speaker 6: Yes. 174 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 4: I mean, it's clear that there's a notion here of 175 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 4: some kind of greater Russia, or at least increase seeing 176 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 4: Russian influence in its traditional neighborhood. And there's particular sensitivities 177 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 4: around Ukraine, in part because it's the natural invasion pathway 178 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 4: into Russia going back to the time of Napoleon. And 179 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 4: so I think there is some truth to that, and 180 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 4: I think the fact that Blincoln is right that he 181 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 4: has failed in his goal in terms of taking Ukraine 182 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 4: and bringing it into the Russian orbit, that is clearly failed. 183 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 4: My criticism, though, of the to Blincoln and the Biden 184 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 4: administration is that it endorsed Ukraine's maximalist aims in this 185 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 4: war of taking back every inch of territory and returning 186 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,960 Speaker 4: to its nineteen ninety one borders, when that was never 187 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,160 Speaker 4: a realistic option. I wish they had been sending that 188 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 4: message a lot more, that this was actually a victory 189 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 4: for Ukraine. 190 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,280 Speaker 3: And actually not falling in four days. 191 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,960 Speaker 4: And perhaps if they had really gone more in that 192 00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 4: direction and been a little bit more realistic about expectations 193 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 4: of what could be achieved, Ukraine today would actually be 194 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 4: in a better position to negotiate a piece. 195 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 2: We're out of time in one minute, Kelly. Is all 196 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,319 Speaker 2: the money gone in this Congress for Ukraine? 197 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,199 Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean most I would say it's gone. And 198 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 4: the question is will we ever see another bill like that? 199 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 4: I am not particularly optimistic. 200 00:10:14,240 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 7: I didn't think you would be. 201 00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 2: She's senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grant Strategy program 202 00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 2: at the Stibson Center. Kelly Greco, Thank you so much, 203 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 2: Kelly for a smart year of analysis here on Bloomberg. 204 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: We really do appreciate your take, be as we learned 205 00:10:26,920 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: something whenever we talk to Kelly Grico about, of course, 206 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 2: one of the most pivotal stories of twenty twenty four. 207 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can 208 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 209 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: roud Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also 210 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,440 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 211 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 212 00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 2: This is our New Year's broadcast New Year's Eve. I 213 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 2: guess we're not going to be here tomorrow, so this 214 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: is the last hour we're going to spend together at 215 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 2: the end of a wild year in politics. Think of 216 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 2: what we've gone through since the beginning of the year. 217 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 2: From Des Moines, where we were packing our bags about 218 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 2: a year ago, right now, to Manchester Super Tuesday, the 219 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:20,080 Speaker 2: Early States, Butler, Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Joe Biden drops out of 220 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 2: the race. We're in Chicago straight through an election that 221 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 2: turned so many expectations on their heads. And of course 222 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:29,079 Speaker 2: it happened in a year in which we watched the 223 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 2: Speaker of the House dispatched, fired by members of his 224 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 2: own conference, and so much division that followed. When our 225 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 2: great producers asked me, who would you like to talk 226 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 2: with on the last show of the year, we didn't 227 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 2: have to think very hard about it, I said Frank 228 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,679 Speaker 2: Frank Luntz, founder CEO fil Inc. Political strategist. I'm supposed 229 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 2: to say celebrity polster too, right, Frank. 230 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:53,280 Speaker 7: It's great to see you. 231 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 2: I hope the holiday season is going well for you. 232 00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 2: Happy New Year in advance, with everything that I just said. 233 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 2: Is our nation or less divided now than it was 234 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 2: at the beginning of the year. 235 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 6: Well, here's what's interesting. And you and I spend an 236 00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 6: afternoon in the freezing cold of Des Moines, Iowa. Your 237 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 6: set was only one block from my hotel, and I 238 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 6: almost didn't make it. And now we end the year 239 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 6: so still so angry, with half of America in disbelief 240 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:27,439 Speaker 6: and the other half celebrating looking ahead to twenty twenty 241 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 6: twenty five as being the best year ever. Are we divided? Yes? 242 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 6: Are we polarized? Yes? Is there pressure to bring us together? 243 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 6: Not really. Now that said, let me give you three 244 00:12:39,960 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 6: findings over the last few days. Number one is that 245 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,960 Speaker 6: Donald Trump's popularities favorability is higher now than it was 246 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 6: when he became president back in twenty seventeen. Number two, 247 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 6: there are groups within the electorate, particularly Latinos, younger men, 248 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 6: union members, who are considering voting Republican more so now 249 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 6: than they ever have in modern times. And number three, 250 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 6: the Democrats are divided as to what to do, how 251 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 6: to move forward, And the only advice I can give 252 00:13:13,880 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 6: them as we end this year is this idea being 253 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:20,240 Speaker 6: the resistance is not what America wants, even those that 254 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 6: did not vote for Donald Trump, don't want resistance. What 255 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 6: they want is an alternative vision, an alternative approach, And 256 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 6: everyone across America watching right now want results, results that 257 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:37,239 Speaker 6: they can count on, results that are both meaningful and measurable. 258 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 6: That's what the American people are asking for. 259 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 2: Well, so then would it be a misstep for Democrats 260 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 2: to not help elective Speaker of the House on Friday, 261 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 2: knowing that Mike Johnson has four votes to play with Frank. 262 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 6: Well Hakeem Jefferies is one of the best communicators in 263 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 6: America today, and he has the ability to reach across 264 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 6: the aisle. Whether he chooses to, it's probably The answer 265 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:04,240 Speaker 6: is probably no, because he has a different point of 266 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 6: view than the Republicans, and it's not the job of 267 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 6: the Democrats to help the Republicans. That said, it would 268 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,559 Speaker 6: be a shock and two tens of millions of Americans 269 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 6: a disappointment if the Republican Party, after waiting this long 270 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 6: to have a president, a Senate, and a House, end 271 00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 6: up tearing themselves apart. The American people want you to 272 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 6: stand up for your convictions. They don't want you to 273 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 6: give up on your beliefs. But they even more so 274 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 6: want to get things done on immigration, They want to 275 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 6: solve the border, on prices, they want to do policies 276 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 6: that affect affordability, and they're just tired of this yelling 277 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 6: and screaming in Washington, DC. That's the message that they 278 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 6: need to take home. 279 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 2: This New Year's even Well, so are we going to 280 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 2: find a Republican conference that is united on Friday? Where 281 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 2: of course, that's the intrigue right now is whether we're 282 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 2: going to have multiple rounds. Maybe Mike Johnson can't survive 283 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: the Tom Massey's or Chiff Roy's of the world, depending 284 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: on how they end up voting. Or is there some 285 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 2: real discord inside this Republican party despite the mandate that 286 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 2: Donald Trump talks about. 287 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 6: There is discord. And when your majorities are barely over 288 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 6: a minority, you have nothing, You have no give. And 289 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 6: the fact is that the public does support most of 290 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 6: the Republican positions. But mark my words, you can play 291 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 6: this tape again December thirty first, twenty twenty five. If 292 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 6: they do not solve the border issue, if they do 293 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 6: not bring down and permanently address affordability, and if they 294 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,440 Speaker 6: continue to fight among each other rather than get stuff done. 295 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 6: The public will punish them on the reverse or on 296 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 6: the contrary, if they do solve these challenges, you can 297 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,200 Speaker 6: see a Republican majority for years to come. 298 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 2: Producers are pulling that cut right now, Frank, to play 299 00:15:59,080 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 2: back a year from now, when you consider what we're 300 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 2: left with here at the end of this year. I 301 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 2: can't talk to Frank Lunz without getting philosophical. I just 302 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 2: walked through a couple of pretty wild stages that we 303 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 2: all experienced in the world of politics this year. They 304 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 2: included two attempted assassinations, of course, a lot of arguing, Frank, 305 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 2: and a lot of uncertainty as we went into this election. 306 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 7: What is the electorate left with? How do we feel? 307 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: Where are the bruises and the wounds that could be 308 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 2: exposed in the new year. 309 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 6: We have a look, okay, I'm going to just make 310 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 6: everything worse. So if you want to be excited and optimistic, 311 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 6: you need to. I don't want to tell them when 312 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 6: to turn off their TV or their radio, but this 313 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 6: is not going to go well for you. We have 314 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 6: a lower degree of trust and confidence in our institutions 315 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 6: than at any time in forty years. We do not 316 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 6: believe we're being told the truth by the media, by journalists, 317 00:16:54,680 --> 00:16:59,080 Speaker 6: by the politicians, and the various elites in America. And finally, 318 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 6: we are the belief that the country is seriously off 319 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 6: on the wrong track. Although those numbers have begun to 320 00:17:05,280 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 6: change in the last two months. If you, I've been 321 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,679 Speaker 6: doing this now for over thirty five years and have 322 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 6: not seen a time of more anger and division. But 323 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 6: what concerns me the most is two data points. A 324 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:24,600 Speaker 6: third of America don't believe that they are invested in 325 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 6: the future of the country, and two thirds of America 326 00:17:27,640 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 6: believe that their country is not invested in their own future. 327 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 6: That is horrific. We need to address that, not just 328 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 6: for right now, but for the long term, because in 329 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 6: the end, our economic success depends on it. Our political 330 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 6: our democratic institutions depend on trust and confidence. We have 331 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:48,439 Speaker 6: to get to the truth, and we have to do 332 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 6: so now because we've done so much damage to our 333 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 6: politics and to our faith and confidence in the future. 334 00:17:56,840 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 6: It's time to turn that around. 335 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:03,400 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about who's invested in America, Because, as 336 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 2: we've discussed, Frank, you spend a lot of time at 337 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 2: West Point, and you've conducted some fascinating conversations with the cadets. 338 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 7: They are focused groups that we can learn a lot from. 339 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 2: You just had one recently that I had a chance 340 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 2: to watch and it was inspiring, and you asked the 341 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 2: cadets in the room, tell me what you love about America. 342 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:25,040 Speaker 2: Here's a sample of what frank her. 343 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:26,400 Speaker 6: Tell me what you love about this country? 344 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 10: The values that we are a country build on values. 345 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 10: We all hear officers and the cadets swhere knows to 346 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 10: the Constitution that not to a president, not to a leader, 347 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 10: and that the standard in America, because we're based on values, 348 00:18:38,560 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 10: is set so high that we're striving towards more profession. 349 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 6: So you just mentioned the Constitution. 350 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 11: This is the single greatest misconception I think Americans have 351 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 11: is that they don't realize that that's where your oath is. 352 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 11: What does the Constitution mean to you? 353 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:56,600 Speaker 12: America? 354 00:18:56,800 --> 00:19:00,400 Speaker 13: The Constitution means America because the Constitution is the soul 355 00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 13: of America. 356 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:01,920 Speaker 6: That's what it is. 357 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 13: When the Constitution and its ideas were first written over 358 00:19:07,720 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 13: two hundred years ago, it was an experiment. It was 359 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 13: an idea. They didn't know it was going to work. 360 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,520 Speaker 13: Just like with the revolution. They had no idea if 361 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 13: it was going to work or not, but they had 362 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,960 Speaker 13: the dream and they had the hope. And for me, 363 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 13: that inspires my dreams and my hopes. 364 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:27,959 Speaker 7: Our future leaders. 365 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 2: Talking with Frank Lunz at West Point, Frank Short of 366 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 2: our listeners and viewers all in listening in the military 367 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 2: on this New Year's Eve? 368 00:19:34,600 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 7: What should they learn from this? 369 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 6: That there was a group of young people and I swaw, 370 00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 6: I was not gonna be get emotional because it's the 371 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:43,639 Speaker 6: end of the year. I want you to have me back. 372 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:48,120 Speaker 6: But they inspire me, and they should inspire the country. 373 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 6: Service with character and sacrifice, a commitment to the Constitution, 374 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 6: not partisanship, not politics, but the most important document in 375 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:06,400 Speaker 6: global history. These cadets work harder, train harder, and make 376 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 6: a greater effort for the country. And they do so 377 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 6: because they love their country, and they will protect each 378 00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 6: other and they protect us. And Thet'll give you one 379 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 6: phrase the Army Navy game. I wasn't too happy about 380 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 6: the outcome this year, but this is the only game 381 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 6: that is played for the people on the field. Commit 382 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 6: to defend everyone in the stands and everyone watching. The 383 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 6: people in the field will give their lives for the 384 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 6: people watching. That's west point. That is what makes America great. 385 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:44,640 Speaker 6: And thank God and God bless these cadets because they 386 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 6: were the last of. 387 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 7: Them and you can bring this to us, Frank. 388 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 2: They are indeed, and this is why we wanted to 389 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,800 Speaker 2: talk with Frank Luntz on our final show of twenty 390 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 2: twenty four. 391 00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 392 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,600 Speaker 1: Just Live week days at News on Emo, CarPlay, and 393 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 394 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us live on YouTube. 395 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 7: At this important moment in time. 396 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,479 Speaker 2: Indeed, next month is going to be something We're going 397 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,040 Speaker 2: to witness a lot of important moments together. Barbara Perry 398 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 2: is no stranger to them, director of Presidential Studies at 399 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 2: the University of Virginia's Miller Center. 400 00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 7: She's with us now. Barbara, it's great. 401 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 2: To see you before we get into the throes of 402 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,000 Speaker 2: January here. I would love to get your take on 403 00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 2: that remarkable moment that we will witness a presidential funeral, 404 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:38,080 Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter's funeral with Joe Biden, his friend, the first 405 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 2: man in the Capitol to endorse him for president delivering 406 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 2: the eulogy. 407 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,800 Speaker 7: How fitting in your view. 408 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,400 Speaker 8: Very fitting, And I guess it does show the cycles 409 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 8: of history and how one element so many years ago, 410 00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 8: so many decades ago, Joe Biden. And as he said 411 00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 8: in his remarks most recently after the president passed, he said, 412 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 8: I told Governor Jimmy Carter that it wasn't going to 413 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 8: really matter if I supported him, because I was so 414 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 8: new to the Senate at that time. But I just 415 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 8: think that it ties those two men together in the 416 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 8: old school of politics, although Jimmy Carter was the fresh 417 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 8: new view and voice of politics in nineteen seventy six, 418 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 8: and so was Joe Biden, and so that the two 419 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 8: should intersect at this moment, and right before another historic 420 00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:39,440 Speaker 8: moment of only the second president to be inaugurated for 421 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 8: a non consecutive second term. For those of us who 422 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 8: study history and presidential history, it's a real moment. 423 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,720 Speaker 7: To reflect well, and from the history repeats itself. 424 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,639 Speaker 2: File the idea that there would not have been a 425 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:56,280 Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan without Jimmy Carter, similar to the idea there 426 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 2: would not have been a Donald. 427 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 7: Trump without Joe Biden. 428 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,520 Speaker 2: But of course Barbara there wouldn't been aj o'biden without 429 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,560 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Won't that be going through your mind when 430 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 2: you watch them both on the West front of the 431 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 2: Capitol on January twentieth. 432 00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 10: It will. 433 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 8: Joe and I love to play out those what ifs. 434 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:17,920 Speaker 8: One little movement in history can reshape the world. I 435 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,159 Speaker 8: think it was Archimedes said, you know, give me a 436 00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 8: lever and a spot of the globe, and I can 437 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,920 Speaker 8: move the globe. And that's what This little series of 438 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 8: steps or missteps in fact, can cause a change in history. 439 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 8: I've also been thinking about the fact that Jimmy Carter 440 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 8: was unlucky enough not to have one appointment to the 441 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,440 Speaker 8: US Supreme Court in his four years as president, one 442 00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 8: of only four presidents who fall into that unfortunate category 443 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 8: as far as they're concerned. But he did name Ruth 444 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 8: Bader Ginsburg to the Court of Appeals in Washington, d c. 445 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 8: Which is most people know as a stepping stone to 446 00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 8: the Supreme Court. So in some ways, Jimmy Carter is 447 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 8: responsible for Ruth Bader Ginsburg and for those people who 448 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 8: support her and what she did. You can say that's 449 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:02,440 Speaker 8: a good thing, but you could also say that what 450 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 8: if if she hadn't been there and therefore stayed on 451 00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 8: the court, and therefore cause Donald Trump in a way 452 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,960 Speaker 8: to take over the court. All sorts of different decisions 453 00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 8: would be coming down from the court. Perhaps so great, 454 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,800 Speaker 8: what if games? It's a parlor game for New Year's Eve? 455 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 2: As an historian, Barbara, what do you make of the 456 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,359 Speaker 2: fact that there is so little talk right now about 457 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 2: January sixth. Denver Wriggleman, the former congressman, who was, of 458 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 2: course an advisor of the January sixth Committee. 459 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 7: Was on the program yesterday. 460 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:33,679 Speaker 2: He said that goes for both Republicans and Democrats. Nobody 461 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,439 Speaker 2: wants to remember it, nobody wants to relive it. And 462 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,719 Speaker 2: we're about to have the certification of the vote next week. 463 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 2: How should we be looking at this for the first time, 464 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:43,639 Speaker 2: well since the riot. 465 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 8: First of all, former Congressman Rigelman was my congressman in 466 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,320 Speaker 8: the fifth District of Virginia, Charlottesville, where I'm based, although 467 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 8: I'm in Louisville, Kentucky today. But you know, I actually 468 00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 8: don't agree with him on that. I think it would 469 00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 8: be as if we would say, you know, no one 470 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 8: talks about the Civil War anymore. Let's just put that 471 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,520 Speaker 8: behind us. You know, those who forget history are doomed 472 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 8: to repeat it. 473 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:07,239 Speaker 11: Now. 474 00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,480 Speaker 8: I'm not arguing that we will this January sixth, but 475 00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 8: I don't think we should ever forget what happened that day. 476 00:25:12,640 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 8: But it appears that seventy plus million Americans decided to 477 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 8: put that behind them and vote for Donald Trump. 478 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 2: Well, so is that just the process of compartmentalizing or 479 00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 2: did half the country think that it was in fact 480 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 2: a tourist joint through the Capitol. 481 00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 8: I don't think half the country thought that. A major 482 00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 8: portion did perhaps that third or now maybe a slightly 483 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 8: larger proportion of people say Donald Trump can do no 484 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 8: wrong and did think it was just a nice tourist 485 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 8: trip through the capital. But I think the other proportion 486 00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,919 Speaker 8: of people who voted for him decided that that was 487 00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,520 Speaker 8: something they could put behind them and that it didn't 488 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 8: bother them enough not to vote for Donald Trump. 489 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,640 Speaker 2: It's really remarkable when you consider the national dialogue from 490 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,919 Speaker 2: four you years ago as we now walk into the 491 00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:06,920 Speaker 2: next January sixth, Barbara, Donald Trump will address the nation 492 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,680 Speaker 2: on that day on the twentieth, from the West front 493 00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 2: of the Capitol. 494 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 8: What will he say, Oh, if I were only a soothsayer, 495 00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,440 Speaker 8: I could make a killing in predicting. 496 00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 2: We remember a pretty dystopian speech on his first inauguration. 497 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 7: Is that the trumpet. 498 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 8: I've given up predicting Donald Trump. I suspect a lot 499 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,960 Speaker 8: of that inaugural address will be formed by Elon Musk, 500 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 8: and so, you know, elements related to defense, elements related 501 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 8: to America First, elements related to the common people. I 502 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,719 Speaker 8: think he'll be reaching out to them and saying that 503 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 8: he's going to lower inflation and make America great again. 504 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 8: And that's I think the theme that he will propound, 505 00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 8: but maybe it'll be in a slightly more positive vein 506 00:26:58,200 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 8: than in twenty seventeen. 507 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 2: I think he goes into the White House and pardons 508 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 2: the January sixth offenders. 509 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 7: On that same day. 510 00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 10: I do, I do. 511 00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, he said that that's what he's going to do 512 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,800 Speaker 8: that I certainly believe that that's one of the truths 513 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 8: that he has been propounding and that he'll make good 514 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:18,640 Speaker 8: on it. 515 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 7: So it's already in the water. 516 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 2: I guess people won't be surprised, But how will that 517 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,400 Speaker 2: play nationally? Having seen the reaction that we did, for instance, 518 00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,040 Speaker 2: to Joe Biden pardoning his son Hunter. 519 00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 8: No, it's sort of less personal. I guess you would 520 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 8: say for Donald Trump, and that these people aren't by 521 00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 8: kin or blood related to him, so it's it won't 522 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 8: have that same impact. But on the also, the seventy 523 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 8: plus million people who voted for Kamala Harris, and I 524 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 8: presume many of those were very upset over what happened 525 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,239 Speaker 8: in the insurrection of January sixth of twenty twenty one. 526 00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 8: It will be shocking to think that those who so 527 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 8: not only disrupted a constant tutional process but also attempted 528 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 8: to tear down the very sacred precincts of our government 529 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,120 Speaker 8: and our politics. It'll be a sad day for them. 530 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:15,240 Speaker 2: Well, we're about to see a new construct, if I 531 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 2: can use that word, in this administration, and I picture 532 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 2: Barbara Perry writing new chapters here on what it is 533 00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,280 Speaker 2: to be the executive in this country. When you've got 534 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,880 Speaker 2: the doge on one side, the Elon musk a Vegu 535 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,639 Speaker 2: Ramaswami experiment that is not actually a governmental department, and 536 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,879 Speaker 2: a series of czars who are going to be setting 537 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 2: policy above and a side, I guess the actual cabinet 538 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 2: officials who are confirmed by lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Is 539 00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 2: Donald Trump about to reinvent the presidency? 540 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 8: I think so, And you spoke of a chapter that 541 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 8: I could write. I did write a chapter in twenty 542 00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 8: seventeen and eighteen that's in a book that is called 543 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:02,280 Speaker 8: The Presidency and the Constitutional Crossroads that we believed at 544 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 8: the Miller Center that we faced when Donald Trump was 545 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 8: first elected. And I think he's made, if you think 546 00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:10,920 Speaker 8: of a crossroads analogy, I think he's made a complete 547 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 8: turn in our presidency as an office, but also in 548 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,959 Speaker 8: our constitutional construct that the founding fathers created, our system 549 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 8: of checks and balances and balance of power, if I 550 00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,840 Speaker 8: may use that term, of three branches of government that 551 00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 8: were meant to be more or less equal and that 552 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 8: would check and balance each other. This concept of a 553 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 8: unitary president, which is seemingly all powerful under Donald Trump, 554 00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 8: will utterly upturn and upset and overturn. I think the 555 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,520 Speaker 8: Framers and their intentions to prevent what they had fought 556 00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,959 Speaker 8: against in the revolution against the King of England, and 557 00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:54,520 Speaker 8: that was concentrated power. So that would be the epilogue 558 00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 8: to that chapter, in the start of a new chapter 559 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,480 Speaker 8: for me to write, what. 560 00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 7: Does that mean if you're s in Congress. 561 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 2: If you're the Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, or 562 00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,760 Speaker 2: you're the Leader of the Senate John Thune, that means 563 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,080 Speaker 2: you don't have the power you thought you had. 564 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 14: Barbara Well, we saw, for example, just recently, and you 565 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 14: mentioned this in the previous segment about the budget negotiations 566 00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 14: just before Christmas. 567 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,480 Speaker 8: That there were members of Congress who stood up to 568 00:30:24,560 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 8: the president and to Elon Musk, and they were members 569 00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 8: of the president's own party, those thirty eight Republicans who said, no, 570 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 8: I ran on budget. It was discipline. So I'm not 571 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,680 Speaker 8: going to vote to raise the dead limit. So there 572 00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 8: will still be some people who will try to hold 573 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:47,040 Speaker 8: the line in Congress. And I'm not arguing that everything 574 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,239 Speaker 8: Donald Trump would put before it would get through. But 575 00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 8: you also have mentioned the pardon power, which is his 576 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 8: sole power, executive order power, which is the president's sole power. 577 00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:00,400 Speaker 8: So it's a bit worrisome for those of us to 578 00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,240 Speaker 8: support the constitution and those balances of power and Jeckson balances. 579 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,080 Speaker 2: Well, let's get you back in twenty twenty five to 580 00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 2: talk about it, because it looks like, based on this calendar, 581 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,440 Speaker 2: the news is going to be fast and furious Barbara, 582 00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 2: it's been a wonderful year comparing notes with you and 583 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 2: appreciate all of your insights in. 584 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 7: Twenty twenty four. 585 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 2: Barbara Perry, Director Presidential Studies, the University of Virginius Miller Center, 586 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 2: thank you so much for being with us here on 587 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,000 Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and radio. 588 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 589 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron 590 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 1: Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 591 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 592 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 593 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 2: I want to bring in the voice of Robert mcwherterour 594 00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 2: in our closing conversation here on the broadcast, because we 595 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 2: spent so much time with Robert this year talking about 596 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 2: the legal travails of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden. 597 00:31:56,720 --> 00:31:59,440 Speaker 2: By way of Hunter Biden, he is a criminal defense 598 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 2: attorney who could be a political analyst, I think in 599 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 2: anyone's book, Robert. It's great to see you. Welcome. There's 600 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,760 Speaker 2: actually a headline on Donald Trump's legal saga right now, 601 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:13,440 Speaker 2: the Federal Appeals Court upholding e Gen Carroll's five million 602 00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 2: dollars civil judgment against the president elect. 603 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,320 Speaker 7: They wanted a new trial to see out of the woods. 604 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:23,920 Speaker 15: Believe he still in the woods on that. I'm not 605 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 15: sure when he will be sentenced on that. But the 606 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 15: federal issues that he tried to raise going to the 607 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 15: Second Circuit Court of. 608 00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:31,200 Speaker 12: Appeals were very, very weak. 609 00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,480 Speaker 15: And this is still a state case, and the federal 610 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,080 Speaker 15: Court of Appeals just wasn't going to wait in and 611 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,480 Speaker 15: help him from himself in this situation. So that's pretty 612 00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 15: much there, and I don't think the Supremes are going 613 00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 15: to take this one either. 614 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 7: Well, you and I. 615 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 2: Talked about a lot of cases, Robert, there were four specifically, 616 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,400 Speaker 2: I believe. Of course, we had the bragcase in New York. 617 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,520 Speaker 2: We went through the Jack Smith cases, if I can 618 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,960 Speaker 2: call them that. At this point, we had Georgia the document. 619 00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:03,640 Speaker 2: It's January sixth. My god, here we are, a couple 620 00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,800 Speaker 2: of weeks before the inauguration of Donald Trump. 621 00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 7: Doesn't have a mark on him. 622 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 2: After all of that, did the media just get over 623 00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:11,959 Speaker 2: as skis on Donald Trump's legal woes? 624 00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 12: Well, I think it gets a little complicated. That keeps 625 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 12: them all straight. 626 00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 15: Look, the bottom line is him becoming the president elect, 627 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:24,240 Speaker 15: and he's going to take office of course, on January eighteenth. 628 00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 15: Really kind of puts a wrench in going forward with 629 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:27,320 Speaker 15: the cases. 630 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:28,040 Speaker 12: At least four. 631 00:33:28,160 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 15: Now it's very hard to maintain a prosecution against the 632 00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,000 Speaker 15: sitting president. 633 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:33,840 Speaker 12: Although not impossible. 634 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 15: Remember back in the civil case of Paula Jones versus Clinton, 635 00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 15: the US Supreme Court said that that case could go forward, 636 00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:43,160 Speaker 15: and that's a civil case. Presumably criminal case is more 637 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,480 Speaker 15: important and more public import so they presumably could go forward. 638 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 15: But I think what's going to happen is everyone's just 639 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,120 Speaker 15: going to put a hold on this. Jack Smith is 640 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,520 Speaker 15: gone ahead and resigned because he wasn't going to give 641 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:57,040 Speaker 15: Donald Trump the satisfaction of. 642 00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 12: Firing him, and everything goes on hold. 643 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,239 Speaker 15: Donald Trump is out of office, either at the end 644 00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:04,960 Speaker 15: of his term or if Donald Trump is impeached again 645 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,239 Speaker 15: and then convicted in the Senate, all these cases come 646 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:09,960 Speaker 15: back for him to face. 647 00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:12,800 Speaker 7: Okay, what does that look like? 648 00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,040 Speaker 2: Though, So we freeze everything in our game of musical 649 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,640 Speaker 2: chairs here on January twentieth. Which of these cases, how 650 00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 2: would they be pursued? Would you need a new special council, 651 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:26,279 Speaker 2: for instance, to go after Donald Trump on the documents. 652 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 15: Case, well probably would, and also the January sixth case, 653 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,200 Speaker 15: so the election interference with the federal election interference case, 654 00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:38,360 Speaker 15: now the New York hush money case. What the judge 655 00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 15: could do is impose a sentence and then suspend imposition 656 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,560 Speaker 15: or when he starts to serve the sentence for after 657 00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 15: his presidency or when he's no longer president. So he 658 00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,960 Speaker 15: could impose a sentence of let's say what six months 659 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:55,319 Speaker 15: or whatever, or it could impose a fine and just 660 00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,600 Speaker 15: suspend imposition of it. So the sentence just sits there, 661 00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 15: and it waits until Donald Trump is amendable to actually 662 00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,120 Speaker 15: serve in the sentence. And that's the New York case. 663 00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,800 Speaker 15: Presumably the same thing could happen in Georgia. See Donald 664 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:11,319 Speaker 15: Trump has no control over those two. Now with the 665 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 15: federal cases, this raises this specter of can Donald Trump 666 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:21,240 Speaker 15: pardon himself? Which I think is an utterly absurd reading 667 00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:24,319 Speaker 15: of the pardon power. I mean, if you, I mean, 668 00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 15: I don't know, if you're having an argument with your 669 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,680 Speaker 15: significant other, decide to pardon yourself. 670 00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:31,279 Speaker 12: I'm not sure how far that's going to go. I mean, 671 00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 12: that's just going to be a problem. 672 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:33,160 Speaker 7: Right. 673 00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 15: So the pardon is something you do for somebody else, 674 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,840 Speaker 15: it's not something you give yourself. But if he wants 675 00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,640 Speaker 15: to push that, it's hard to see what mechanism could 676 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,760 Speaker 15: challenge it. My guess is Jack Smith, being the careful 677 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,520 Speaker 15: lawyer that he is, has probably wrapped all of this 678 00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 15: up in a bow and a package for somebody else 679 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,319 Speaker 15: to pick up at a later date. 680 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think my wife would go for that. 681 00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 2: Robert I might try it to find out. But in 682 00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,279 Speaker 2: a couple of minutes we have left here. Let's talk 683 00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 2: about the pardons, not just the idea of Donald Trump 684 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:09,560 Speaker 2: partning himself, but what January sixth rioters, who else are 685 00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 2: we going to hear from when. 686 00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 7: He moves back into the White House. 687 00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:13,359 Speaker 12: Well, he could do that. 688 00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,440 Speaker 15: I think you're going to look for possible pardons of 689 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 15: Peter Navarro and Stone, and he'd already commuted the sense 690 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,680 Speaker 15: of Stone. Anybody who's connected with him in his ambit, 691 00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 15: he's going to think that he should pardon, you know, 692 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 15: and that would be really absurd. I mean, these are 693 00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,040 Speaker 15: clear cases of criminal contempt of Congress with the action 694 00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,879 Speaker 15: of Peter Navarro. But if you're Trump's friend, that's all 695 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,080 Speaker 15: that really matters, and if you join in the kind 696 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,400 Speaker 15: of Trump littany about the twenty twenty election, you somehow 697 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:43,600 Speaker 15: are beyond reproach. 698 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,120 Speaker 12: So that's what could happen that January sixth. 699 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 15: Pardons are very interesting. There is a historical president for that. 700 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,240 Speaker 15: The first use of the pardon power was George Washington 701 00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 15: with Shay's rebellion. And this was a protest, although they 702 00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,480 Speaker 15: did not directly lee democracy itself, but it was a 703 00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 15: protest and it was put down and in a way 704 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:11,320 Speaker 15: to kind of quell domestic insurrection and the kitchena problems. 705 00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,320 Speaker 12: Washington exercide the parton power, which, by the way, as Alexander. 706 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,839 Speaker 15: Hamilton wrote in Federals seventy four, that is the use 707 00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 15: of the pardon power to get people past things. 708 00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 7: And go on right republic. 709 00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,280 Speaker 12: So Donald could make that argument. 710 00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 15: The trouble is, unlike with George Washington, these are all 711 00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,480 Speaker 15: Donald Trump's people, and he probably incited this riot and 712 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,600 Speaker 15: could be criminally prosecuted himself, which you could never say 713 00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:33,800 Speaker 15: that about George Washington. 714 00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,279 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 715 00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 716 00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,919 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 717 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 718 00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.