WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 3 NFL Game (Ep. 338) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.200 Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.640 your bets. This meet Joey Paid, Joe Pi Zapia, and 0:00:05.680 --> 0:00:08.479 it's time to look ahead for some of the early 0:00:08.640 --> 0:00:10.920 line value. In Week three in the NFL, we still 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:13.119 got to Monday night games ahead of us, and of 0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.040 course we're always here Monday night football at five pm. 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:18.440 Easter's got bogging myself. We're gonna take you through those games. 0:00:18.480 --> 0:00:20.919 But it's time to already look ahead. A lot of 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:23.000 injuries are gonna impact a lot of these games, say 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:27.960 Kwan Barkley's injury, David Montgomery's injury, a whole lot of injuries, 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:31.360 and maybe there's some opportunity where that lies. Of course, 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:33.559 help me do it. Sam Hoppin is back again. We're 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.280 seeing you what the Sammy Boys got for everybody today. 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:38.960 Pat Fitzmorris is always joining me on the program to 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.720 look ahead. And just a reminder, as you guys are 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:45.200 all here watching the show on YouTube listening, make sure 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:47.839 you subscribe to the channel. That's how you do it, 0:00:47.840 --> 0:00:50.120 and click that bell till it goes ding for notifications 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:52.400 because we're giving away free stuff here all the time. 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.800 Let's start with the first game straight out of the gate. 0:00:55.880 --> 0:00:59.400 We got some controversy because well, the New York Football 0:00:59.400 --> 0:01:01.320 Giants have not gone off to the great start of 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:04.240 the year. Certainly a butt kicking in the first game. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:08.720 The second game, down considerably at halftime to the Arizona 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.800 Cardinals on the road, granted, but still then of course 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:14.240 the comeback victory, but at the cost of Saquon Barkley 0:01:14.240 --> 0:01:17.520 Pat fitz Morris. Here we go. The San Francisco forty 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.119 nine Ers are ten point favorites in this game. I'm 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:22.880 sure some of the Saquon news could even see this 0:01:22.959 --> 0:01:26.720 line continue to grow. The total is forty five right 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:29.200 now in this short week with eight without Saquon, is 0:01:29.240 --> 0:01:32.039 hard to make an argument for the Giants, and the 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:35.120 forty nine Ers might be looking like the best team 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:37.480 in the NFC. Your thoughts on any value here? Do 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:39.520 you want to lock in this ten because it might 0:01:39.600 --> 0:01:40.959 grow in the days ahead? 0:01:41.440 --> 0:01:44.160 You would think that ten points the forty nine Ers 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.160 would look good as a favorite here, Joe. I mean, 0:01:46.200 --> 0:01:47.920 the forty nine Ers are one of the three I 0:01:47.920 --> 0:01:50.400 think elite teams in the NFC, the others being the 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.680 Eagles and Cowboys. And we saw the Cowboys swab the 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.560 deck with the Giants in Week one forty to nothing, 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.560 you know, with the Giants being at home. So now 0:01:59.560 --> 0:02:01.920 the Giants have to go on the road. Stay on 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:03.920 the road, I guess, since they were just in Arizona. 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:06.760 But here's the thing. I could see this game being 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:11.000 played around the ten point mark. And I just got 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:13.520 burned on a Thursday night game with a backdoor cover 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:15.800 last week when I thought the Eagles were a great 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:19.400 beat against the Vikings at minus six and a half, 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.280 and you know, the Vikings score late to make it 0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:24.000 a six point game and I lose that bet. So 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:27.200 I'm a little gun shy. And Thursday night football can 0:02:27.240 --> 0:02:29.760 be a little quirky. You know, we know this. So 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:32.200 maybe I don't know. Maybe the forty nine ers just 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.720 aren't clicking offensively in Week three the way they have 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.240 been so far. I'm not sure. I'm probably not going 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:41.520 to play this game, although who am I kidding? It's 0:02:41.560 --> 0:02:43.880 a Thursday night staying alone game. I'm probably gonna end 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:44.760 up playing this game. 0:02:45.040 --> 0:02:47.200 Well, look, last week I locked in the early line 0:02:47.240 --> 0:02:49.920 with the Vikings before it moved, and it did, so 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:53.040 I was happy about that Vikings the moment there at 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:56.880 the end. But Sam, look, I think the more time 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:58.840 people have to marry it on this and how bad 0:02:59.080 --> 0:03:02.200 the Giant have been to start the season. Let's be honest, 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:05.200 this seems like a really tough road for them on 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:07.560 this Thursday night game, especially having to go on the road. 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:09.440 I like the ten. I want to lock it in. Now, 0:03:09.480 --> 0:03:11.000 what do you think it's tough? 0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.880 I mean, I think the Saquon news is obviously going 0:03:14.960 --> 0:03:18.520 to impact this a little bit. I don't think he plays. 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.920 The thing is New York has been pretty good this 0:03:22.000 --> 0:03:25.119 year at running the ball. There fourth in rushing success rate, 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:29.520 while the San Francisco defense is thirtieth in success rate 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:33.560 allowed on the ground. But again, I don't expect Saquan 0:03:33.680 --> 0:03:37.960 to play. I prefer the under here. I think this 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.800 is a game where the Giants just really aren't going 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:44.800 to be able to score that much. Of New York 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:47.680 Giants are allowing forty five percent pressure rate, which is 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:50.400 the fourth worst, while the San Francisco defense has a 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:53.880 forty one percent pressure rate. The Giants could be without 0:03:53.920 --> 0:03:58.080 Andrew Thomas and Ben Braidson again, so I think this 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:02.040 could be a thirty to nothing blowout type game, which 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.680 I guess would would lean me towards taking the points 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:08.040 for the Niners. But I just don't think the Giants 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.160 have anything to be able to push this game over. 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:13.480 I agree, I think the under is a really good 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:16.240 point there. And this is worry about that Giants offense 0:04:16.279 --> 0:04:18.559 without Saquon, what that looks like with Matt Briden whoever 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.840 else they decide to use running the football. And then look, 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:23.760 I see this one being by the time we get 0:04:23.760 --> 0:04:25.720 to game time, like twelve and a half, Like, I 0:04:25.800 --> 0:04:27.240 think this is gonna be where it is, So I 0:04:27.279 --> 0:04:30.080 like san Fran at twenty ten. Now give me san Fran, 0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.279 give me the ten. Let's go. They're gonna beat up 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.960 on the Giants. Moving on to the next game. Here, 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:38.440 as we start to transition onto the Sunday games, we 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:43.080 have the Indianapolis Colts uncertainty there with Anthony Richardson inconcussion protocol. 0:04:43.400 --> 0:04:45.480 We'll see how things go ahead for him, but as 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:48.719 of right now, traveling to Baltimore, this number on betting 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:50.880 pros right now, so you can get Baltimore minus eight 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.920 and a half over at bet MGM and sugar House 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.479 plus seven and a half for the Indianapolis Colts. The 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:58.280 forty four and a half. Sam is where this number 0:04:58.360 --> 0:05:00.800 kind of lies if you like in for the upset. 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:02.880 If Richardson is healthy, you can lock this in at 0:05:02.880 --> 0:05:05.159 plus three thirty. But it feels like this might be 0:05:05.160 --> 0:05:07.440 one we have to wait on some clarity. Gardner Minshew, though, 0:05:07.480 --> 0:05:09.200 I mean, is gonna be Gardner Minshew. He's going to 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.680 have his moments obviously where he can certainly keep it competitive. 0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:15.240 Do you think that he keeps you competitive enough here 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:18.120 that you think the Colts can go in here and 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:20.960 maybe keep this close with the Baltimore Ravens. 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:25.479 If Richardson is playing, I do think they can keep 0:05:25.520 --> 0:05:30.080 it close. That eight points is a lot for a 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:35.479 Ravens team that has played well so far this year. 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:39.680 They ranked sixth in success rate on offense and sixth 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.800 and success rate allowed on defense. But I just think 0:05:43.839 --> 0:05:46.479 Anthony Richardson is so dynamic. Obviously the Ravens might know 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.600 how to play it, given they have Lamar Jackson on 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.240 the other side. I do think the over in this 0:05:52.360 --> 0:05:56.080 game is intriguing. If we find out that Richardson is 0:05:56.160 --> 0:06:01.120 going to play at the Colts continue to play extremely fast, 0:06:01.360 --> 0:06:05.320 have the fifth highest no huddle rate, the third quickest 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:08.840 seconds per play, So I like the over. I'm not 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:12.280 touching the points yet without knowing what the status of 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.279 Anthony Richardson is, makes. 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.599 A lot of sense. Fits what's your take on this 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:19.280 game with the uncertainty of Richardson. 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.840 I generally like betting the Ravens at home, especially when 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:26.839 I feel like they're the superior team. I just wonder, like, 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:30.040 is there any value to getting this at eight points? 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:34.440 Because what is the Colt's incentive to hurry back their 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:38.200 franchise quarterback for a tough road game when they're not 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:40.520 going anywhere? Like they have no designs in a playoff 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:44.039 spot there ETA is twenty twenty four and beyond, So 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.359 I'm almost interested in grabbing this at eight. Like, I 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:50.160 think the Ravens have a chance to cover it even 0:06:50.200 --> 0:06:52.919 if Richardson does play, but I think there's a pretty 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:57.440 good chance the Colts exercise caution with Richardson and maybe 0:06:57.440 --> 0:06:58.880 hold him out a week now. 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:00.880 This is a very important game obviously to keep an 0:07:00.880 --> 0:07:02.680 eye on the lines, and the best way to do that, 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.120 don't forget, is always using that BP app because we 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:07.280 have the line alerts, so you could set the notifications 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:09.680 for certain games. This would be one of them too, 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:12.200 as things will fluctuate depending on the health of Richardson 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:15.720 if Minschew's in. So set your game notifications and then 0:07:15.760 --> 0:07:18.840 once that line changes, you'll get the update notification right 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:20.960 to your phone Boom. You can make the bets, but 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.440 again use the line alerts over on the VP app. 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.640 It's very important. Let's get to the next bit of 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:28.000 business here. The next game on the slate, the Tennessee Titans, 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.760 coming off their first victory Cleveland, is going to play 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:33.800 tonight on Monday night. As we're recording this in the 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:35.880 morning on Monday. So far it looks like four and 0:07:35.880 --> 0:07:38.680 a half with Cleveland being the favorite. We'll see if 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:42.720 that makes any impact after tonight's game. For forty one 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:44.760 and a half, you're getting this number somewhere on FANDUL 0:07:44.760 --> 0:07:48.400 and Sugarhouse in that range. Not surprising here, Fitz, We'll 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:51.800 start with you on this one. Tennessee Titans looked much better. 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:54.680 Tannehill looked much better. I know the Chargers are always 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:57.080 a frustrating team, we know that. But the Cleveland defense 0:07:57.120 --> 0:07:59.040 I think is for real. I think we all agree. 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:00.720 So how do you want to approach this one? Do 0:08:00.760 --> 0:08:02.520 you see any early value in this game. 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:06.160 I'm looking at the under, Joe. Yeah, two teams that 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:09.560 like to run the ball a lot. Like I don't 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:12.320 know how much I believe in the Titans defense overall, 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:14.360 but I believe in the run defense, and we know 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:17.160 the Browns want to run the ball. So I think 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:19.920 it's two teams that are going to try to run 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:22.200 quite a bit, and I don't know how successful they're 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:25.160 going to be doing it. So yeah, the under is 0:08:25.160 --> 0:08:27.520 calling to me. I'm not really interested in the line. 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:29.800 I just I don't like laying a lot of points 0:08:29.840 --> 0:08:32.480 to a Mike Rabel team. I get nervous about that. 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:35.440 And I do think the Browns are good, but I 0:08:35.480 --> 0:08:38.920 don't know, like the degree to which they are good, Like, 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.560 I don't know if they're good like contend for conference 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.679 championship or just good enough to maybe sneak into the playoffs. 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.040 To that point, Sam, the plus one to eighty money 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:52.360 line right now on Tennessee is really what's intriguing me. 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:54.480 Like this is almost two to one. You're getting on this, 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:56.840 and I think this could be one of those games 0:08:56.880 --> 0:08:58.800 just like it teams like most as what have we 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:01.400 learned about the Titans they're gonna play close games. That's 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:02.800 the first two weeks of the seasons. What it told. 0:09:02.800 --> 0:09:04.600 It's abo how good they play, how bad they play, 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:05.920 they're going to kind of be in it because they're 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:09.280 well coached. Does that for you mean that maybe people 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.720 should start to pivot their attention to that money line number. 0:09:13.480 --> 0:09:16.199 I'm on an island here. I like the Browns in 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:20.360 this game. I think their defense is possibly a top 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:23.440 five unit right now. Obviously have the game to play tonight, 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:27.320 but I think the Tannehill we saw this past week 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.880 against the Chargers is more the exception than what's going 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:34.680 to be the rule this year with facing a what's 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:38.880 a terrible Chargers defense, and I think there were a 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.920 couple of coaching blunders from the Chargers side of things 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.559 that let the Titans win that game. So I'd be 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:49.079 laying the points here With Cleveland. I think their offense 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.400 still has some stuff to figure out, but I don't 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:55.520 think Tennessee's defense is really that good that they can 0:09:56.080 --> 0:10:00.280 stifle the Browns offense. So I'm laying the Browns year 0:10:00.400 --> 0:10:03.920 with the points. Might wait a little bit just to 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:06.400 see if this number creeps down to maybe minus three, 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:09.680 but I think at minus four, it's still a solid 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:10.440 value right now. 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:14.679 The Denver Broncos. Maybe they would be to and oh 0:10:14.760 --> 0:10:17.000 if he only played half of a game of football, 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.480 But it seems like a second half struggle bus there 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.720 for the Denver Broncos. They seem to have a hard 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.280 time there keeping any leads. And of course now they 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:25.840 have to go to Miami this week, could take on 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:31.520 Tyreek Kill two thousand. They might be without Chris o'lave 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.400 I'm just excuse not Chris Olavea. Jalen Wattle, pardon me. 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.920 At some point this week we'll see more information coming 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:41.160 out there on his injury. But the Denver Broncos, regardless, 0:10:41.200 --> 0:10:43.120 it's been a very frustrating I think opening to the 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:44.520 season for them. They're going to go on the road 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:46.880 in this game. Sam the number so far six and 0:10:46.920 --> 0:10:49.120 a half over at sugar House. Forty six and a 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:53.679 half is the total. It's hard to necessarily think that 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:56.760 you're not going to get Miami in this victory here. 0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.800 But do you think that Denver is going to continue 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:02.800 to get better as the season goes on here and 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:04.760 learn from some of these mistakes or is this a 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:08.520 Miami blowout? Basically from what the lines are telling us 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:08.920 early on. 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:13.440 I do think this team is that the Broncos that 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:17.240 is going to get better. But this Dolphins offense is 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:19.600 just so good man. I mean their first or second 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:23.400 in EPA per play, success rate, EPA per drive, all 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:26.240 the passing stats as well, like they are clicking on 0:11:26.320 --> 0:11:31.000 all cylinders. I don't think the Broncos defenses is nearly 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.280 as bad as they've shown, but they're also not I 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.200 don't think good enough to be holding back this Dolphins offense. 0:11:38.360 --> 0:11:41.480 I love the Dolphins in this spot. I think you 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:44.640 could pare it well with the over because the Broncos 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:49.000 are have a seemingly competent offense right now, at least 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.760 that's what they show. Russell Wilson had some of those 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:57.880 prototypical deep pall deep ball airwell passes against the Commanders 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.480 this past week, so I I do think that this 0:12:01.640 --> 0:12:05.080 game could be a shootout potential, but expect Miami to 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.160 come away with the victory. 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.160 Pat. What's yours perspective here? It does feel like Miami 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:14.440 is a lot to handle and defensively, Look, Denver Key's 0:12:14.440 --> 0:12:15.880 given up a lead, so let's just call it what 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:17.520 it is. As good as their defense is supposed to 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:19.880 be on paper, they're giving up points and the commanders, 0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:21.920 they give it up points to the Raiders, you know, 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.959 teams that we don't think they of as elite offenses necessarily. 0:12:25.000 --> 0:12:26.080 So what's your take on this one? 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.360 Yeah, that's the interesting thing. Denver had one of the 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.719 better pass defenses in the league in twenty twenty two, 0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.160 and they have not looked that way. They managed to 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.560 make Sam Howell look like Joe thisman in Week two. 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:43.240 So Denver has been disappointing. But I don't think they're 0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:47.120 one of the truly bad, truly odious teams of the NFL. 0:12:47.160 --> 0:12:50.120 They are not like dregs of the league bad. So 0:12:51.240 --> 0:12:55.000 seven is uh? It feels like a lot to lay here. 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:59.000 I'm probably just staying away from either side, and as 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.880 much as I want to like the under here, thinking 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:05.800 that Denver might be equipped to, if not totally short 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.280 circuit the Miami passing attack, at least slow it down 0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:11.679 a little bit, especially if Waddell doesn't play. I don't know, 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:13.920 based on what we've seen and based on what we 0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:16.640 saw them allow Sam Howell to do in week two, 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:18.520 I don't know if I can go there either. So 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:20.319 I'm probably not going to touch this game. 0:13:20.880 --> 0:13:23.240 The next one here the New York Jets come back 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.600 home take on the New England Patriots. Very low total here, 0:13:25.640 --> 0:13:29.120 thirty eight is this number here which I can understand. 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.400 The last time these two teams met up, the final 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.439 last November was ten to three. The time before that 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:37.280 twenty two to seventeen. So I think this is why 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.880 you're getting that thirty eight number. The New England Patriots 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:44.040 are two point road favorites in this game. Here fits 0:13:44.440 --> 0:13:46.840 I agree that the New Englan patriotshould be favored in 0:13:46.840 --> 0:13:48.680 this game. I look at that thirty eight though, and 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:50.960 that is a very low number. So do you think 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.600 that is too low that we should be betting that 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.000 over now? Or do you think maybe these two offenses 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.600 really are going to live up to the expectations of 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:01.559 what we said so far. I think the Pats, though, 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.600 are getting better. I really do. What do you think? 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.000 What do you take away the last two weeks of 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:06.960 both of these teams? 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:09.760 I want to smash the under here, Joe. Thirty eight. 0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:13.880 I mean it feels like I think it's I'm finding 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:15.720 it hard to see how these teams get this game 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:18.679 past thirty. I mean, I really do believe in the 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:21.160 Jets defense. I think it's legit, and I think the 0:14:21.200 --> 0:14:26.120 Patriots offense has its limitations. And what did you tell me, 0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:28.880 Joe before backstage when we were talking about this game 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.640 and I was kind of surprised the Patriots were road favorites. 0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:36.040 You reminded me about well Bill Belichick and you know, 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:41.160 sub tier below average quarterbacks and maybe Zach Wilson's history 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.200 against the Patriots. 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:45.080 Yeah, lots of turnovers, three interceptions in that one game 0:14:45.160 --> 0:14:47.160 last year, and then a whole lot of other problems 0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:49.480 in the other one. But that's that's the thing, Sam, Like, 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:53.200 you know, you're looking at what historically Bill Belichick has 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.400 done to some of those lesser to your quarterbacks or 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.280 youthful quarterbacks, and he has given them so many confusing 0:14:58.320 --> 0:15:01.640 looks that it does make it very difficult. And I know, 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.120 you know the Jets were going to be heavy underdogs 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.840 last week against Dallas. We all knew that. So in 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:10.000 your opinion, do they get home and can they pull 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:10.920 off an upset here? 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:15.240 I mean, I think the Jets certainly can pull off 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:18.440 the upset. One of my favorite picks for this game 0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:21.640 is teasing the new York Jets out to plus eight. 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:25.160 That gets you through the three and seven. Again, you've 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.640 talked about how this is a super low total, which 0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:31.680 means the game is likely going to be extremely close. 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:35.520 The Jets defense is for real in my opinion, that 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.640 the Cowboys played pretty well against them this past week, 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:44.720 but again they're they're just stopping. They stopped the Buffalo Bills, 0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:49.560 who again played excellent this past week, and so I 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.440 the only thing I wonder about with betting the under 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.520 is New York or excuse me, New England has played 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:59.000 pretty fast this year, and that may be because of 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:02.320 the game scripts that they've been in, having to push 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:05.880 the pace try to catch up against the Dolphins and 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:09.960 the Eagles. But I don't think their offense is peak 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:13.000 right now. I think there's still room for improvement. So 0:16:13.320 --> 0:16:15.640 I think they just keep it close and this could 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:16.600 go either way. 0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:19.880 All right. By the way, everybody, if you're watching on 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.360 the YouTube channel or if you're listening, make sure you 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.600 go over and you subscribe to the channel, because when 0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.000 you subscribe and drop a comment below, you could win 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.800 a James Cook Buffalo Bill's autograph jersey thanks to us here, 0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:35.280 a betting pros remember, just drop a comment, subscribe and 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:36.760 click the bell till it goest dings. You know, if 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:38.400 you're the big winner, that's all you have to do 0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:40.560 in order to get that jersey. We like giving away 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:43.000 free stuff. Giveaway an Aaron Jones jersey, giving away a 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.400 James Cook jersey. So go get in there, get that jersey. 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.680 It should be yours. Go make sure you subscribe today. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:50.840 Let's get to the next game. Here on our list 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:54.680 the Houston Texans with CJ. Stroud going against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:56.800 And this is an interesting one, Sam, I've got my 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:58.480 eye on this one. I like what I've seen that 0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:01.800 c J. Stroud is competing. He is trying to get 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.840 out there and compete with what he's got. He might 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:06.320 not have a lot, but I think this is an 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.639 interesting work in progress. I don't think he's got any 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:10.359 quitting him. The number here is forty five and a 0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.640 half over on FanDuel. Currently the spread for this game 0:17:13.680 --> 0:17:16.359 you're looking at you can get plus nine on DK 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:18.359 for the Houston side, minus nine and a half on 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:20.080 sugar House. And this is why you use the VP 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:21.960 app because you can make sure you're getting all the 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:25.320 best lines wherever you go. So you know Jacksonville had 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:27.879 a tall task ahead of them last week. Do you 0:17:27.920 --> 0:17:30.680 think Jacksonville just completely rolls Houston or can Houston actually 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:32.399 keep this one a little closer than that nine? In 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:33.680 your opinion, Sam. 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:39.119 I do think they can keep it close. The Jaguars 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:43.399 have a twenty four percent pressure rate, which is thirty 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:49.560 thirtieth in the league on defense, and CJ. Stroud's numbers 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:53.000 with and without pressure have been extremely stark. He's been 0:17:53.080 --> 0:17:56.440 much better with a clean pocket, obviously, but it is very, 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:59.879 very bad when he is under pressure. So if Jacksonville 0:17:59.880 --> 0:18:02.960 came get home, I think CJ. Stroud has an opportunity 0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:06.919 to pick apart this Jaguars defense. In the game this 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:10.240 past Sunday, the Jaguars went I think zero for four 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:13.600 in the red zone, like they were just terrible in 0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.520 the red zone, couldn't finish drives, and I think they'll 0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.720 be able to do that against Houston's defense. So I 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:23.280 think Houston can keep it close. I think this is 0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:27.760 another opportunity again to possibly tease tease Jacksonville down to 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:29.000 minus two and a half. 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.879 Okay, interesting, Now, I do agree that Houston could keep 0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:35.520 this close. Pat I'm not looking for Houston from pulling 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:37.679 off the upset here, but I do think there's something 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:40.000 for the Jags. You know, you come out there, you 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.280 win that big first game on the road, and then 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.360 you have the Kansasity Chiefs. I feel like they could 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:45.879 be a little bit of a letdown here in this 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:47.800 one where you start to relax a little bit, saying, ah, 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:50.240 Houston's come into town, and you roll your eyes a 0:18:50.280 --> 0:18:52.080 little bit, and this game ends up being a little 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.399 closer than you think. I like the nine on the 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:56.760 Houston side, But what are your thoughts on this one? Pat? 0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.960 Yeah, I mean the Jaguars struggled for part of Week 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.280 one with the Colts, and then you know, the offense 0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:05.600 did not look crisp against the Chiefs. We thought we 0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:07.920 might get a shootout in that game, didn't get one. 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:13.080 To Sam's point about CJ. Stroud's the stark difference between 0:19:13.160 --> 0:19:15.720 him under pressure and with a clean pocket. I'll be 0:19:15.760 --> 0:19:18.760 interested to see what the injury report looks like for 0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:21.200 the Texans and their offensive line. Like they've had a 0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:23.320 lot of banged up offensive linemen. If they start to 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:27.080 get some of those guys back, maybe that's an argument 0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:29.720 to be made for taking the points here, because I 0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.480