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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 3: Six sing just glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind, my buddy, And

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Speaker 3: that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them. Shut up.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The wall.

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Speaker 1: It's left too the wide eyed drill reibeus.

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Speaker 3: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network, presented to you by Bet three

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Speaker 2: sixty five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with

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Speaker 2: promo code Action to get betfree six fives exclusive sign

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Speaker 2: up offer in New Jersey and Colorado and bet one

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Speaker 2: dollar on any game you get two hundred free. My

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Speaker 2: name is Michael Lee Buff and joining me as always

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Speaker 2: are my friends co hosts and colleagues be Ja Cunningham

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Speaker 2: out of Iowa and Anthony Dubundo from King of Preussia, Pennsylvania. Gentlemen,

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Speaker 2: it's a weird weekend of Premier League soccer head. We

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Speaker 2: have seven matches, two on Friday, a few on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: some on Sunday morning, including a rare early kickoff on

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Speaker 2: Sunday morning as well. But it just feels good to

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Speaker 2: have some soccer to talk about, because all season long

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Speaker 2: we were talking about there's gonna be soccer and soccer

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Speaker 2: and it's just gonna be crazy. And then obviously the

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Speaker 2: Queen dies and that gets thrown into flux, and now

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Speaker 2: we have an international break looming. But we have some

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Speaker 2: games to talk about, and we're gonna start with one

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Speaker 2: of the Friday afternoon kickoffs. This one is asked in

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Speaker 2: Villa plus one oh five at home versus Southampton Saints

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Speaker 2: there plus two fifty at bet three six five road

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Speaker 2: underdog draws sitting at plus two sixty. I think it's

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Speaker 2: simple here. Villa just aren't the type of team you

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Speaker 2: want to bet as a favorite. Nineteenth in non penalty

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Speaker 2: expected goals per ninety seventeenth and big chances created. And

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Speaker 2: the Saints defense is better than we expected it to

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Speaker 2: be so far, and that's not saying it's great seventh

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Speaker 2: and expected goals allowed fourteenth in big chances that but

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Speaker 2: bj you're sort of betting into this one being more

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Speaker 2: of a slug fest. I'm gonna bet the underdog here.

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Speaker 2: I like Saints at the price, but you're going you're

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Speaker 2: targeting a BTTs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, one of my favorite bets bail both teams to

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Speaker 1: score No. Plus one twenty five. I mean you mentioned

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Speaker 1: aston Villa. They've been really poor offensively four point five

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Speaker 1: expected goals and six matches. They created three big scoring

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Speaker 1: chances against Everton, but against everybody else they have not

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Speaker 1: created one big scoring chance. And it goes back to

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Speaker 1: what Anthony mentioned after the Bournemouth match that aston Villa

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Speaker 1: can not turn final third possession into any type of

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Speaker 1: high quality chance. I mean they are in the middle

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Speaker 1: of the pack in the Premier League. They have average

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Speaker 1: about one hundred and fifty five touches per ninety in

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Speaker 1: the opponent's final third, but they're only averaging eighteen touches

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Speaker 1: per ninety minutes in the opponent's penalty box. Only Lester

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Speaker 1: and Bournemouth have a lower average, and aston Villa has

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Speaker 1: only taking thirty two shots inside the opponent's penalty area.

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Speaker 1: West Ham, Lester and Bournemouth are the only ones that

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Speaker 1: are worse. So they have been bad in the final

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Speaker 1: third or in the penalty box trying to actually get

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Speaker 1: some type of chance. But defensively, you know, they've been

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Speaker 1: really solid. Like their back line, you know, has been good.

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Speaker 1: They have good defensive midfielders. You know, they're top eight

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Speaker 1: in terms of box entries allowed, progressive passes and dribbles allowed,

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Speaker 1: crosses allowed in the penalty area. Like Jerrard, it seems

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Speaker 1: like he wants compactness over anything else, Like that's all

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Speaker 1: he really cares about, is like, let's get in the

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Speaker 1: Christmas tree formation. Let's be really compactful, let's not let

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Speaker 1: anybody go right through the middle. So you know, normally

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Speaker 1: what you'd say is like, okay, aston Villa counter attacking

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Speaker 1: style team playing against Southampton, ultra pressing, up tempo, like

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Speaker 1: good matchup right, Well, aston Villa last season was bottom

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Speaker 1: five at playing through pressure, so not really like if

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Speaker 1: you want to play counter attacking, you got to be

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Speaker 1: able to play through pressure. I mean Southampton, like you

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Speaker 1: mentioned it, they've been better defensively, but let's not kid

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Speaker 1: ourselves like this offense. Even though they've gotten some big wins,

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Speaker 1: they're still averaging under one non penalty expected goal per

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Speaker 1: match their fourteenth and shots from inside the penalty area.

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Speaker 1: And I mean when these two met towards the end

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Speaker 1: of last I mean both meetings last season. You know,

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Speaker 1: Southampton failed to create over one expected goal against aston Villa,

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Speaker 1: but they held over fifty six percent possession in both

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Speaker 1: those matches. So what does that tell me is that

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Speaker 1: if Southampton is asked to have the ball like, they're

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Speaker 1: not very good at trying to break down some type

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Speaker 1: of low blocks. So with both team to score no

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Speaker 1: price at plus one twenty five, I think that's a

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Speaker 1: way way way too low. I have projected at minus

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Speaker 1: one twelve, so anything plus money is good for me.

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Speaker 1: On both teams to score nine in this match.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Jerard, he seems to be managing like coach who

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Speaker 2: doesn't want to be fired. He doesn't want to lose

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Speaker 2: his job.

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Speaker 1: He's scared.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So that is not a good combination for a favorite,

102
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Speaker 2: whether you're at home, on the road, whatever. So I

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Speaker 2: just don't trust them to get the separation needed to

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Speaker 2: profile well as one Anthony, we're going to go to

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Speaker 2: you for this next one. Forest plus one eighty at

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Speaker 2: home posting Fulham plus one sixty two. The draw here

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Speaker 2: is plus two twenty two newly promoted sides meet. The

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Speaker 2: Fulham defense is starting to show some cracks in the

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Speaker 2: armor seventeenth and non penalty expected goals allowed nineteenth and

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Speaker 2: big scoring chances allowed. They've played a pretty tough schedule.

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Speaker 2: The only team that's worse than them across the board

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Speaker 2: is not Enforced last in both those metrics non penalty

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Speaker 2: expected goals allowed and big chance is allowed. It screams over,

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Speaker 2: but not so fast.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this is kind of a going back

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Speaker 3: to the broader trend of last season. These were two

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Speaker 3: teams who overperformed considerably in attack relative to their expected goals.

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Speaker 3: And again you look at Forrest this season, especially at home,

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Speaker 3: their defense has been a little bit better at home

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Speaker 3: that's been on the road this season, So I think

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Speaker 3: that's worth something. Yes, I know the Boorne Myth game

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Speaker 3: did happen, but again Bourne Myth scoring three goals there

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Speaker 3: off of you know, less than one expected goal. Not

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Speaker 3: reading too much into what happened there, there was also

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Speaker 3: a penalty that got Forrest one of their goals, and

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Speaker 3: so there was a lot of flukes that happened in

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Speaker 3: that wide open game. If you went back and watched it,

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Speaker 3: it was pretty lackluster in terms of consistent scoring creation.

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Speaker 3: And I think when you look at Fulham, it's been

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Speaker 3: pretty much Metrovich or bust for the attack, and I'm

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Speaker 3: a little skeptical of how long that's going to be

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Speaker 3: sustainable in this league. I think that Mitrovich had an

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Speaker 3: incredible start to the season, and you know, credit to him,

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Speaker 3: but he's scored almost all of their goals, and that

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Speaker 3: you know, as good as I. As much as I

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Speaker 3: like him, and I think he's very good, I don't

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Speaker 3: know how long he can be the only person who

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Speaker 3: scored six of their eight goals this season, with Paulinya

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Speaker 3: and Bobby Reid scoring the others. No other player has

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Speaker 3: created more than one expected goal. It's been you know,

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Speaker 3: six matches now, so we're not dealing with that small

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Speaker 3: of a sample Forrest and Fulham. My number is pretty

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Speaker 3: close here. It's two point four. But I do like

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Speaker 3: the under I think that as much as I don't

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Speaker 3: like the Forest defense, I do think that they'll be

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Speaker 3: a better at home here in this matchup. So I'm

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Speaker 3: going with the other two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the other Friday afternoon game. So that's

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Speaker 2: like at Saturday morning Wolves plus eight to fifty home

150
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Speaker 2: underdogs to Man City. A price like that on a

151
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Speaker 2: team at home, you know who the other team's going

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Speaker 2: to be in the matchup. That's City minus three hundred.

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Speaker 2: The draw is plus four hundred at bet three six five.

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Speaker 2: Wolves look like they should. The numbers point to some

155
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Speaker 2: positive regression on offense for them, but we know this

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Speaker 2: team by now. This is this Bruno Las team and

157
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Speaker 2: three goals for four goals against its six matches. That's

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Speaker 2: the lowest total per game in the Premier League. I

159
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Speaker 2: got nothing here, I think. I mean, I want to

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Speaker 2: bet numbers like this, especially it's against City and a

161
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Speaker 2: rest disadvantage. Once again went behind, like they're not just

162
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Speaker 2: playing teams off the pitch like they normally do. But

163
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Speaker 2: I just don't trust Wolves to score themselves out of

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Speaker 2: trouble here, so it'll be a pass for me.

165
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Speaker 1: BJ Yeah, I'm going back to both teams score no

166
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Speaker 1: with City Wolves. It's very funny because they have the

167
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Speaker 1: same problem at aston Villa, except they're playing a little

168
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Speaker 1: bit different style than they did last season, Like they're

169
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Speaker 1: not just sitting back defensively and not pressing like they're

170
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Speaker 1: actually holding possession mainly in their own on their own half.

171
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Speaker 1: But they are top five in the Premier League in

172
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Speaker 1: touches in the opponent's final third like their top six

173
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Speaker 1: and progressive passes and dribbles like this is a midfield

174
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Speaker 1: that's definitely improved a lot and was able to progress

175
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Speaker 1: the ball off the field. They just can't do anything

176
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Speaker 1: in the final third. I mean when you look at

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Speaker 1: their touches in the final third drop down to twelfth

178
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Speaker 1: in the Premier League, like they go from fifth to

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Speaker 1: twelfth when you go from the attacking third to the

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Speaker 1: penalty area. So I have question marks about how they're

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Speaker 1: actually going to threaten the City defense because I mean,

182
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Speaker 1: I mean, you know Clouds that got hurt and Tago

183
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Speaker 1: Coasta comes in, it's either him or ral Hamenez. I

184
00:09:05,360 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 1: don't feel confident either one of those two turning any

185
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,120
Speaker 1: type of chance that Wolves may create here against City.

186
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Speaker 1: I mean, they lead the Premier League in shots from

187
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 1: outside the box, like it's a team that it's improving

188
00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:15,720
Speaker 1: like in the middle of the pitch, but they're just

189
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Speaker 1: they still have problems in front of net that they

190
00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:20,680
Speaker 1: haven't solved in City. You know, they did play the

191
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Speaker 1: thriller with the Newcastle, but they're still very slow and pragmatic,

192
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Speaker 1: like they were less like we we said, like we

193
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Speaker 1: couldn't put our finger on what's wrong with City. Well,

194
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Speaker 1: like if you look at their sequence time is slower

195
00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:34,080
Speaker 1: than it was last year, their passes per sequence is

196
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,120
Speaker 1: you know, almost one better than last year, and their

197
00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,040
Speaker 1: direct speed is actually slower than last year. And they're

198
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,000
Speaker 1: holding seventy three percent possession on Hafridge like this is crazy.

199
00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 1: They're averaging close to five hundred touches in the middle

200
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,360
Speaker 1: third of the pitch, like they're playing two kind of

201
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,600
Speaker 1: different styles. And I think the reason why you maybe

202
00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,760
Speaker 1: see them more pragmatic right now is because they've played

203
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Speaker 1: a lot of teams that are just going to play

204
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Speaker 1: low blocks against them, Like they've no.

205
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Speaker 3: Top six sides.

206
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Speaker 1: Yeah, they've played no top six sides, so so essentially,

207
00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,280
Speaker 1: you know, again they play you know the teams that

208
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:06,600
Speaker 1: have played low blocks against them, it's Bournemouth, Crystal Palace,

209
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forests and Aston Villa and City has allowed a

210
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Speaker 1: total in those four matches of one expected goal, sixteen

211
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Speaker 1: shots and only twenty nine touches in their penalty area.

212
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:19,200
Speaker 1: And so now what you have with City is a

213
00:10:19,200 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 1: team that they're kind of going back to what they were. Like,

214
00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:23,600
Speaker 1: if they play a team that's going to press them,

215
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:26,000
Speaker 1: they're like inviting net press on and they're trying to

216
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,280
Speaker 1: play through it quicker, and they're trying to get the

217
00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:28,760
Speaker 1: ball to Holland because they actually have an out and

218
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Speaker 1: out striker. But if they're going to play another team

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Speaker 1: that is going to play in a low block, they're

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Speaker 1: just going to pass the ball round, do little runs

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Speaker 1: into the box to run is going to do little

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Speaker 1: half crosses, and that's going to be pretty much the

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Speaker 1: entire match, because I highly doubt that Wolves is gonna

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Speaker 1: come out of whatever type of compact thing that they're

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Speaker 1: going to be in all match. So I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: back to both teams to score.

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Speaker 2: No.

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Speaker 1: I got to projected at mis one thirty seven, so

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Speaker 1: a minus one ten. I think there's some value on

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Speaker 1: it right now.

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Speaker 3: General showing some counter attacking ability, ill.

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Speaker 2: Until the rubber beats the road. It's like if it

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Speaker 2: was like rugby where you just have to over a line,

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Speaker 2: what would be great, but then you got to kick it.

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Speaker 3: That doesn't work until it does like it and that's

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Speaker 3: the thing too, and eventually that you know, you continue

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Speaker 3: to create ch other they're getting chances. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: five five point seven XG is not good, but it's

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Speaker 3: better than the three goals they have produced in six matches.

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Speaker 3: So I fear, I fear.

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Speaker 1: It's like the top. The Tottenham match is a perfect example.

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Speaker 1: Like if you watch that match, you're like, man, wolves

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Speaker 1: actually look pretty good, like they controlled possession, they got

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Speaker 1: a lot of shots off and everything. But then you

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Speaker 1: look at the final box score, it's point eight x

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Speaker 1: G off of twenty shots. Like you just they couldn't

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Speaker 1: create anything of value. So I mean, you know, tod

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Speaker 1: Obous plays a very different style than City, but you

249
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Speaker 1: know it's a relative example of playing against a big

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Speaker 1: six sides. So I mean, we'll see the City might

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Speaker 1: open this thing up and we might get crazy. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Dorman only created point seven xt gal against them today

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Speaker 1: and didn't really do much in the first half, so

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Speaker 1: we'll see. I mean, I think City's just going right

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Speaker 1: back to pragmatic slow against teams that are just gonna

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Speaker 1: play a little block it generally sleepwalk.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a dangerous spot here right for the

258
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Speaker 3: international break. But I do if I had to bet this,

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Speaker 3: I would I would bet on Wolves. Actually I would

260
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Speaker 3: take the take the the goals. I think that they're

261
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Speaker 3: a little bit undervalued right now in the market generally,

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Speaker 3: and of course Wolve's overs, but I'm not betting it

263
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Speaker 3: over here. But I do think that they're a little

264
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Speaker 3: bit undervalued, a little bit off of the start where

265
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Speaker 3: you know, you look at the numbers and you look

266
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Speaker 3: at minus point two per ninety xg difference, middle of

267
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Speaker 3: the table generally slightly blow average. I think if you know,

268
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Speaker 3: of course, the finishing is a you know, creating clear

269
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Speaker 3: chances in the box a big problem and shooting from

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00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:35,959
Speaker 3: distance over and over again. Against City you could luck

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Speaker 3: into one, but otherwise it's very hard to see it.

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Speaker 3: But I do think that this team is generally a

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Speaker 3: little bit underrated, and you know, their their defense isn't

274
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Speaker 3: quite as bad as it was at the end of

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Speaker 3: last season. They have made some improvements there.

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Speaker 2: Onto ten am kickoff between Newcastle and Bournemouth, Newcastle at

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Speaker 2: home minus two twenty three at bet three six five.

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Speaker 2: The Cherries travel up to Saint James Park as plus

279
00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,880
Speaker 2: six fifty underdogs the draw here plus three thirty three

280
00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,360
Speaker 2: Bourne with two point seven expectacles for but they still

281
00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:08,480
Speaker 2: don't have the worst expectacle differential in the league that

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Speaker 2: actually belongs to Nottingham Forest. I know we talk about

283
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Speaker 2: a little bit with Newcastle to start with the draws,

284
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Speaker 2: but it is surprising if they only have one win

285
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,280
Speaker 2: on the season one four and one. Like I think

286
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,680
Speaker 2: if you just judging off the vibes around Newcastle that

287
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,160
Speaker 2: they're trending in the right direction, you'd assume that they'd

288
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,400
Speaker 2: you know, be closer to you have three two in

289
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Speaker 2: one or something like that. I've got nothing here. I

290
00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,960
Speaker 2: think this line on Bournemouth is just not high enough.

291
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Speaker 2: Eddie Howe taking on his former team narrative Street. You know,

292
00:13:38,920 --> 00:13:41,360
Speaker 2: maybe they'll pummel um, but this is an easy one

293
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Speaker 2: for me to sit out. BJA. Do you have something though?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not laying it with Newcastle here, even though

295
00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,040
Speaker 1: I do think that they're starting to find something and

296
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,280
Speaker 1: really be for real. I mean, especially with the shock

297
00:13:52,360 --> 00:13:55,960
Speaker 1: and they against Nottingham Forrest, Brighton Wolves and Crystal Palace

298
00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,760
Speaker 1: this season essentially when they didn't have to play City

299
00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,600
Speaker 1: or Liverpool. They have a plus three point six expected

300
00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,960
Speaker 1: goal differential and they've only allowed three point three expected

301
00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 1: goals in those four matches. And I mean, listen, Bournemouth

302
00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:08,840
Speaker 1: has had a difficult schedule. We've talked about it many times.

303
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,920
Speaker 1: But if we just isolate the three matches against Aston

304
00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 1: Villa Wolves and Noddingham Forest, here is born this offensive output.

305
00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 1: They've created one point nine expected goals. They have twenty shots,

306
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:22,600
Speaker 1: they have thirty six box entries, they have fourteen shots

307
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,360
Speaker 1: in the penalty era, zero bick scoring chances, and field

308
00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:28,720
Speaker 1: tilt has been thirty one point three to sixty eight

309
00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 1: point seven. Like that is bad. You can talk about

310
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,680
Speaker 1: the Liverpool nine to nothing beating all you want, Like

311
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,240
Speaker 1: this team cannot create anything right now. I know the

312
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,720
Speaker 1: scored three goal Anthony mentioned it. I know the scored

313
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,360
Speaker 1: three goals against Notingham Forest, but that was they barely

314
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,880
Speaker 1: created one. So I really have a hard time seeing

315
00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:49,120
Speaker 1: how they're not going to fall into the same trap

316
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 1: that Noddingham Forrest fell into on opening weekend, where Newcastle

317
00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 1: just basically pins them inside the final third and doesn't

318
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,680
Speaker 1: allow them any type of counter attacking opportunities to even

319
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Speaker 1: get across the half. I mean, Newcastle They've been a

320
00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:04,560
Speaker 1: good defensive team when they don't have to play the

321
00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,720
Speaker 1: Big Six. Since February, you know, they've only allowed eleven

322
00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: point nine XG and fifteen matches against non Big six sides,

323
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 1: and only five those matches have has a team created

324
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Speaker 1: over one inspectacle against them. So I mean, I feel

325
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Speaker 1: like a broken record right now. I've done two already. Well,

326
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 1: I guess we'll just make it a third. Both teams

327
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,920
Speaker 1: is a score no and minus one twenty. I really

328
00:15:24,200 --> 00:15:27,240
Speaker 1: have a hard time seeing how Bournemouth is going to

329
00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,560
Speaker 1: score in this match, and you know they could play

330
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:32,360
Speaker 1: you put up a good defensive performance like they did

331
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,880
Speaker 1: against Wolves and keep Newcastle out of the net. But yeah,

332
00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:37,440
Speaker 1: I think this is priced a little too low. I

333
00:15:37,480 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 1: haven't projected at minus one fifty nine from.

334
00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 3: A betting perspective here. You know, Newcastle is kind of

335
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,720
Speaker 3: the team who's I think performances have flat have been

336
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 3: better than their results, and I think it's unquestionable to

337
00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,000
Speaker 3: say that Bornemouth through these six games, their performances have

338
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:55,520
Speaker 3: been worse than their results. So in terms of a

339
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 3: bye high and by low and sell high, I think

340
00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:01,080
Speaker 3: this is actually a little bit cheap on Newcastle. I

341
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,560
Speaker 3: know their attack has not been great, but then you

342
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 3: run through their defensive performances at home in the last

343
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,560
Speaker 3: three months, dating back to the end of the last season,

344
00:16:09,560 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 3: they conceded point three x get of Wolves at home,

345
00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:14,760
Speaker 3: point six x get of Lester at home, point five

346
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:20,160
Speaker 3: to Palace, point six to Arsenal and two to Liverpool. Okay,

347
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,160
Speaker 3: you can say that's you know it's Liverpool. Then this

348
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 3: season they start conceding point four in Nottingham Forest point

349
00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,800
Speaker 3: eight and then pull and then one point one at

350
00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:31,119
Speaker 3: home to Palace. So it's been a very impressive defensive

351
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:34,000
Speaker 3: showing against non Big six sides at home. And I

352
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 3: think that's where you kind of get at what BJ

353
00:16:36,360 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 3: was saying with how does Bournemuth get on the board here?

354
00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 3: They could flew a goal. Of course, that's always the

355
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: sweat with the BTTs. Knows that BJ.

356
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 1: Bettant is not a fun bet, I'll tell you that much.

357
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:50,320
Speaker 3: But make significant improvements and it's coincided with personnel improvements.

358
00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:51,960
Speaker 3: So I think it's very easy to make the case

359
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,720
Speaker 3: that Newcastle is much better now and that our under

360
00:16:54,760 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 3: bets are maybe in some trouble. I mean, so far

361
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,400
Speaker 3: we're we're getting through here on some draws, which you know,

362
00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 3: their attack not being quite as good as maybe the

363
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,199
Speaker 3: market thought, which we kind of said, but the defense

364
00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:07,800
Speaker 3: looked legit, and Dee Marius and Joe Linton and the

365
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 3: improvements at center back clearly are improving this team. So

366
00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 3: I would actually I think Newcastle is a decent parlay piece.

367
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:16,639
Speaker 3: You know, I don't like laying the goal here because

368
00:17:16,720 --> 00:17:18,239
Speaker 3: the like the attack's not great, but I do think

369
00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:19,639
Speaker 3: this is a good parlay piece. If you're looking for

370
00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:21,760
Speaker 3: something else, or maybe a big favorite that's on the

371
00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 3: board that you you think should roll.

372
00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:26,000
Speaker 1: I know a team to parlay them with.

373
00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:27,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about a team that you might want

374
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:34,920
Speaker 2: to parlay with. I'm not sure minus two hundred at

375
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:38,080
Speaker 2: home hosting Leicester City plus five fifty the draws plus

376
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,120
Speaker 2: three thirty three. If you listen to our last podcast,

377
00:17:40,160 --> 00:17:43,560
Speaker 2: the Champions League pot, I was imploring you guys to

378
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 2: get on Sporting Lisbon against Spurs because this team, Tottenham

379
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:49,399
Speaker 2: is a lot of fun to break down. They're a

380
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 2: lot of fun to handicap because the number is sure,

381
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 2: they matter, but it's so much about it is stylistic

382
00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:01,879
Speaker 2: like it and it might sound to oversimplify things that like,

383
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,520
Speaker 2: it's a style of make fights team. But if a

384
00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 2: team is going to sit back and they're not going

385
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,639
Speaker 2: to or they profile that way, Tottenham's just they're vulnerable,

386
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 2: even as a big favorite and less they are not

387
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 2: that type of team. They might look like one because

388
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:17,679
Speaker 2: of their statistics right now, they don't generate anything, but

389
00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 2: that's not what they are all about under Brendan Rodgers.

390
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 2: They don't have really the personnel to do it. Let's

391
00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 2: read off some of those numbers. Eighteenth and big chances

392
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,960
Speaker 2: created Tottenham is second and big chances allowed great Less,

393
00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:31,199
Speaker 2: they're sixteenth in non penalty expectacles for ninety created eighteenth

394
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 2: and shots for ninety nineteenth and big chances created. They

395
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 2: don't play defense well, they don't create well. This is

396
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,720
Speaker 2: still a lame duck team and Tottenham should just have

397
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 2: their way with them. This is a team that should

398
00:18:40,119 --> 00:18:43,960
Speaker 2: play into Tottenham's hands stylistically, so whether it's using Tottenham

399
00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 2: as a parlat piece with Newcastle or City or backing

400
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,000
Speaker 2: an atline here because I think that this one could

401
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 2: get run up. Anthony is shaking your head because you

402
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 2: don't believe in Spurs but bj as an Arsenal fan,

403
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:55,560
Speaker 2: you do.

404
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny like you mentioned that, like it's the

405
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,679
Speaker 1: match against Sporting was not good, Like they did not

406
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 1: play very well, Like they allowed Sporting a lot of possession,

407
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 1: Like they didn't really look threatening going into the final third.

408
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 1: But I think the bigger thing with Tottenham right now,

409
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,440
Speaker 1: and we are a betting podcast, is what's going on

410
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 1: in the market with them. I mean, let's run through it.

411
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 1: I mean, against west Ham they opened at minus one ten,

412
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,600
Speaker 1: they closed at plus one fifteen. Against Fulham they opened

413
00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 1: at minus two seventy five, they closed at minus two hundred.

414
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 1: Against Marseille they opened at minus two fifteen, closed at

415
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 1: minus two hundred. And then it's Sporting they opened it

416
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty and they close at plus one twenty.

417
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:34,200
Speaker 1: Like you mentioned, Michael, I think it maybe has something

418
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 1: to do with stylistically, but this one does not make

419
00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 1: much sense to me, them being only minus two hundred

420
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: at home against Leicester. I mean, these two teams just

421
00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 1: played on May first at white Hart Lane and Tottenham

422
00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 1: closed as a minus two to fifty favorite in that match.

423
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,199
Speaker 1: So how on earth can we sit here today and

424
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 1: say either Tottenham's gotten way way worse since that may

425
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 1: first date or Lester's gotten way way better, and neither

426
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:03,880
Speaker 1: of those are true. So why is Todd I'm sitting

427
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: at minus two hundred right now. I mean you could

428
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,199
Speaker 1: say that, you know, Lester might have arrest advantage. I

429
00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: don't really buy that. I don't think the market really

430
00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 1: bakes that in too much. I mean, like you said, Michael,

431
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 1: mean Tom, I'm should be able to put a counter

432
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:18,160
Speaker 1: attack and clinic against against Lester. I mean that match

433
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:22,520
Speaker 1: on my first Lester held sixty percent possession. They attempted

434
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 1: over two hundred more passes than Tottenham had thirty more

435
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:27,920
Speaker 1: touches in the attack and third, but they were only

436
00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 1: able to muster six shots and half an expected goal

437
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:34,280
Speaker 1: with all that possession. Like that's that's not good. And

438
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: I mean we all know the story with Lester offensively,

439
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,920
Speaker 1: We talked about it on the pod before the matches

440
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 1: got canceled. But they finally decided to play Ianacho and

441
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: Daca up top against Brighton. They actually looked a lot

442
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:47,360
Speaker 1: better than just putting Vardy on an island. But there's

443
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,119
Speaker 1: still under one expected goal for ninety minutes. They're taking

444
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 1: under ten shots per match and they've created just two

445
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. So I'm taking Toddenham minus one. But

446
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until match time because I think that

447
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 1: the market is going to hate them again and we

448
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: might be able to get taught them minus one at

449
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 1: even money, or maybe even a plus number, like they

450
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 1: might drop to minus one eighty five minus one eighty

451
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,160
Speaker 1: by match time, which is just way way too low

452
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,919
Speaker 1: for Tottenham, even if stylistically they hadn't looked good, Like

453
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: just purely on a numbers play, there's a lot of

454
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 1: value on Tottenham playing against this lane dunck luster team.

455
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,040
Speaker 2: Maybe the Tottenham het in the market is steaming or

456
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 2: stemming from Anthony's trepidation.

457
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 3: He's out on Conye, I'm not entirely out, you know.

458
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 3: I think that you know, I respect the market, I

459
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,240
Speaker 3: respect closing line value, and I think that Spurs are

460
00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:39,720
Speaker 3: a little overvalued generally speaking. These openers have been pretty

461
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 3: high on them. I think the sentiment and narrative surrounding

462
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 3: this Tottenham team is that they are as good as

463
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 3: they were in the second half of the season under

464
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 3: Antonio Conte, and Bjay has mentioned it. You know, plus

465
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 3: one expected gole difference per ninety minutes under Conte second

466
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 3: half of the season is excellent. But what if they

467
00:21:57,359 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 3: just regress from that? What if they're not as good?

468
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 3: I mean that that was a very impressive fifteen game sample.

469
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 3: What if the next fifteen games they're only about half

470
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 3: a goal better, you know than their opponents per ninety

471
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 3: And then you get somewhere in the middle, which is

472
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 3: kind of what I have been feeling and fearing about

473
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: Spurs in the last couple of months when you watch

474
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 3: these performances. Because I understand the shot difference, quality difference,

475
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 3: that all matters, but you know, the whole thing with

476
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 3: autonomous to prevent teams from getting into your penalty area

477
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 3: and to give them shots from distance. But Spurs are

478
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:30,959
Speaker 3: you know, they're sitting there tenth in box entries allowed

479
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 3: and eighth and cross is allowed, so the crosses are

480
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 3: coming in, the teams are getting in the box, and

481
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: then they're you know, last ditch defending. You know, there's

482
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,879
Speaker 3: still third in non penalty XG allowed. But the only

483
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:46,320
Speaker 3: above average attack they've really played was Chelsea and you know,

484
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 3: look poorly Chelsea's age and then going forward, you know

485
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,919
Speaker 3: they're ninth in crosses into the box and fifth in

486
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 3: box entries going forward, so the field tilt numbers. It

487
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 3: just strikes me as a team who's not nearly as

488
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 3: elite as the market has suggested, and I think that's

489
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 3: why you're seeing this team. I don't know all the

490
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:04,680
Speaker 3: answers on why the market moves the way it does

491
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 3: all the time, but I think that Spurs generally overrated.

492
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 3: Now that being said, let's move to this match. I mean,

493
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 3: you can't bet Lester here, no way. The number is

494
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 3: not even close to good enough. Mbda's right, like, I

495
00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:18,960
Speaker 3: think Spurs are worse right now than they were playing

496
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,240
Speaker 3: in April and May, but I mean Lester's a whole

497
00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 3: lot worse than that. So you have to kind of

498
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,239
Speaker 3: downgrade both teams, I think, and it gets you right

499
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 3: around to the number now. I actually lean to the under,

500
00:23:29,600 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 3: but I am a little bit concerned about Ianacho and

501
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 3: Daca being in the team because I do think that

502
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: makes them better an attack. I will be waiting until

503
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 3: a little bit closer to game time before I'm betting

504
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 3: this match. I want to see if Rogers' decision to

505
00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 3: bench Vardi was truly a benching of Vardy or was

506
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 3: it a this was our third game in a week,

507
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 3: because remember they played midweek that week. Maybe it was

508
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 3: a little bit of a shift. Maybe Varty's right back

509
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 3: in front, because look, benching the team captain is a

510
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 3: big move for somebody who's on the hot seat, and

511
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,639
Speaker 3: so you know that's the kind of thing they can

512
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 3: lose the locker room. So maybe he's already lost it.

513
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 3: Who knows. That's the narrative angle. But I you know,

514
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,080
Speaker 3: I lean to the under here because I do think

515
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:12,400
Speaker 3: Spurs just aren't quite firing an attack right now, and

516
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 3: the market's inflating their totals a little bit because of it.

517
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 3: And we've seen it now. I mean, didn't create anything

518
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 3: against Sporting, didn't creating against Marseille with until they were

519
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 3: down to ten men, did not create a ton against

520
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 3: West Ham. So this is this attack is a little

521
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: bit sputtering.

522
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 2: B J the Arsenal fan me, that's pretty agnostic when

523
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:31,959
Speaker 2: it comes to Spurs. We're on Spurs, Anthony Spurs fan,

524
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: not on Spurs. So you know what that means? Three

525
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 2: nail Spurs when going away.

526
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: I'll take two nail, hit my under and you guys

527
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,959
Speaker 3: win your Spurs bets all right, Spurs by the way

528
00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 3: they are, they are a good parlay piece. Ultimately with uh,

529
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 3: the f with.

530
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: That is that is probably what we're gonna have to do.

531
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 1: It's just parlay those two together.

532
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 3: Us betting favorites.

533
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:51,719
Speaker 1: Where we are playing favorites.

534
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: Where is a podcast go wrong?

535
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 2: We have a we have an underdog we got to

536
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 2: talk about as we flipped the pace of Sunday. But

537
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 2: before we do that, just reminder. Wonder Goal is presented

538
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 2: by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

539
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,360
Speaker 2: Sign up with promo code action to get Bet three

540
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 2: six five exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey, Colorado.

541
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,160
Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred free.

542
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,440
Speaker 2: Perhaps you want to do it on this underdog Brentford

543
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 2: plus three thirty three at Bet three six five hosting

544
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,359
Speaker 2: fellow London club Arsenal minus one twenty five on the road.

545
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 2: The draw here is plus two seventy five. We all

546
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: remember this fixture last year, yep, because we were all

547
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 2: on the right side of this fixture last year, which

548
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 2: was Brentford to open the season. I was on the

549
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,880
Speaker 2: money line. I think you too. Chicken down just took

550
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 2: some goal line. I like it.

551
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 3: Again.

552
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: I like Brentford here. They've been playing from behind a

553
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 2: lot this season, but they still have the six best

554
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 2: expected goal differential per ninety on the year. They're overperforming

555
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: offensively with fifteen goals from just around ten expected, but

556
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 2: those numbers are still good for this team. Like this

557
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 2: is a good team. They played very well at home.

558
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 2: They're brave, they're extremely just tough to deal with, which

559
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 2: makes them a great underdog that we spoke about a

560
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 2: few teams last year at nauseum. They profile well as dogs.

561
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: Maybe stay away from those favorites. Brighton, Brentford and Palace

562
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 2: were those teams for the most part, and Brentford they

563
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 2: still have that profile. They punch up well. They remind

564
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 2: me a lot of the Ottawa Senators in the NHL,

565
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 2: a team that just they just don't know their weight class.

566
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: So I will be on the Bees again against BJ's arsenal.

567
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 2: Before we do get to BJ though, for his weekly

568
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 2: bet against his gunners, Anthony your thoughts, here's reeling.

569
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,400
Speaker 3: I mean he had his gunners and they.

570
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: Was on Tottenham fading guns.

571
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 3: Well, he was on the gunners last week against Man United.

572
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 3: Suh got cheated, got cheat, got cheated.

573
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: By the beach cheated but bar the refs, everybody.

574
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 3: And the team kicking the ball on the net. Just

575
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 3: ridiculous stuff from them anyway. You know, look, this is

576
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 3: pretty similar to me from opening day. You know, Arsenal

577
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 3: was US one twenty five, one to thirty favorite on

578
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:06,359
Speaker 3: the road at Crystal Palace against a great team who's

579
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,360
Speaker 3: excellent at home, and that is pretty much held up

580
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: throughout the course of this young season. They continue to

581
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 3: play well at home, They've dominated opponents and I know

582
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: the leads match was closer than the final score indicates.

583
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,399
Speaker 3: BJ will never admit that, but it's true. They were

584
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 3: the better side against Everton, had some post luck and

585
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 3: then of course everybody remembers the United Four nail drubbing.

586
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 3: But the underlying numbers look better for Brentford than they

587
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 3: did last season in terms of ball progression, in terms

588
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,080
Speaker 3: of the attack not being entirely reliant on set pieces,

589
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: and a lot of that is iven Tony, who you know,

590
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 3: we talked about last season as somebody who could you know,

591
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 3: come into the prem and be really successful and then

592
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,800
Speaker 3: he had a really hot start and cool off. Now

593
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: maybe the same thing will happen, but right now he's

594
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 3: over point four x G per ninety and of course

595
00:27:50,800 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 3: I don't expect him to finish at a point eight

596
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 3: per ninety eight, like he's doubling his XG and that's

597
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 3: not going to continue forever. But it just seems like

598
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 3: they're a little bit more balanced. They're healthier this year

599
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 3: thus far, which has been really important. And so I

600
00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 3: just think Arsenal is overvalued again on the road where

601
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,200
Speaker 3: they have not been nearly as good in the last

602
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 3: year and a half. And I'm call Arteta, So I

603
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 3: like Brentford. I think you know my number. I have

604
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,639
Speaker 3: the Arsenal plus money here to win. So anything with

605
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 3: Brentford with plus money at a half at home, I'm

606
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: taking it. So I'm on the Bees plus a half

607
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: and I'll be talking more about the Bees later in

608
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 3: the underdog section.

609
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels good to have you back on the Bees, Anthony.

610
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 2: It took some time. You went away for a little bit,

611
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 2: went into the Midlands with aston Villa, but you're back

612
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,119
Speaker 2: and so is bej. Yeah.

613
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: Man, this sucks. I hate betting. I don't have fun

614
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 1: betting against Arsenal, But at the same time, like we

615
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:45,920
Speaker 1: are a betting podcasts and there's just Arsenal's just overvalued

616
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: once again. I mean we've talked about Brentford at the

617
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: you know, the wonderful Brentford Community Stadium a lot, well,

618
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 1: seven matches dating back to the start of last season

619
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: at home against the Big Six plus one point four

620
00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: expected golden French Allo. I'm pretty sure Crystal Palace is

621
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: the only team that can claim that they have a

622
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: positive expected goal to Frenchal against the Big Six at

623
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 1: home since it started last season. So really impressive stuff

624
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,480
Speaker 1: from Brentford. The thing I worry about for them in

625
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: this match is that they're not they haven't been good

626
00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: playing through pressure. They weren't last year. They've struggled a

627
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 1: little bit this year. They they like to play like

628
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: this quick pass passing structure under Thomas Frank, Like they

629
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 1: don't really play a lot of long balls, so it's

630
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: kind of hard to play through teams that will press

631
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: you successfully, and Arsenal's one of them. I mean they're

632
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: fourth and pass per defensive action, they're fourth and pressure

633
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: success rate. But the structure of Brentford is hard to

634
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: break down and they don't play a high line like

635
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: other teams. Well that what Arsenal can get in behind,

636
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: like they're going to sit in a low block and

637
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: it's it's gonna be tough. I mean Brentford last season

638
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: they were a one point two actually for ninety minute defense,

639
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: Like that's really really good for a newly promoted side.

640
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:51,440
Speaker 1: And so I have question marks the Arsenal here especially.

641
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: You know, you saw the way that United was able

642
00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,080
Speaker 1: to counter them fairly easily on a few times playing

643
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: balls through. You know what if Brentford does what they

644
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:02,880
Speaker 1: did in Manchester United and presses Arsenal successfully gets a

645
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 1: few turnovers and just gets all moving forward, Arsenal has vulnerable.

646
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: So if you're looking for a path the victory for Bedford,

647
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 1: it's that. And then it's getting some goals opposite pieces

648
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 1: like they did last year. So yeah, to Anthony's point,

649
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: I mean I have Arsenal projection at plus one twenty six.

650
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: You look around everybody else. I mean five thirty eight's

651
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:22,560
Speaker 1: got Arsenal forty nine percent. Info goals got him at

652
00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: forty four percent. So bees plus half goal at anything

653
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: plus money is good for me here.

654
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,400
Speaker 3: This was a sneaky undergame and I don't know Tigers

655
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 3: stylistically that I like for this but Arsenal's defense has

656
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: been better than the goals allowed to suggest to this

657
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 3: point four point nine to seven. And the Bees, I mean,

658
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: you know a lot of it's been Tony going ham,

659
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,280
Speaker 3: but fifteen goals four from about ten expected Arsenal have

660
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: run well too. These games have both these teams have

661
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 3: played a lot of very open, back and forth games.

662
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 3: There tends to be a cool down that comes from

663
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: that afterward. And so this is a sneaky under game

664
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: as well.

665
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:57,240
Speaker 1: And Brandford's only played one big stick side. It was

666
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: United at rock Bottom.

667
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 2: So they played everyten though, no, that's true.

668
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: I forgot about that, and they played leads and leads yeah,

669
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean like they they played United at

670
00:31:06,080 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: rock Bottom. They haven't played like a real top tier

671
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 1: team yet, you know, so.

672
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 3: They were they were only good against the top tier

673
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: teams last year.

674
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: It's like and then you know you.

675
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 3: And I said, and they made that. I said, what

676
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 3: if they don't get points off to the top six,

677
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 3: like they could be in trouble here, and then they

678
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 3: just said, nah, we're just going to go. I mean

679
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 3: they're they're in are but they're just gonna go.

680
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: I mean, they're the type of team like they a

681
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 1: lot of times it just comes down to effort. You know,

682
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: like a lot of times you can just see that

683
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: in tackles and interceptions, pressing like it's it's just it's

684
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: just honestly effort. And when you watch Renford, you're like, man,

685
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: this team puts in a lot of effort, effort. You

686
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,479
Speaker 1: watch Brighton or Crystal Palace say, man like as an underdog,

687
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: they're actually putting in like effort and actually trying. And

688
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 1: then you watch like Lesser and you watch Telaman's just

689
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: like jog back as a team just goes like right

690
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: through on the counterpress, Like you're like, wow, this team

691
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: just doesn't care, Like they don't Like that's why we

692
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: love these teams because like sometimes it really just goes

693
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: down to f I know, we don't talk a lot

694
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,239
Speaker 1: about numbers, but you just watch them and you're like,

695
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,600
Speaker 1: this team actually cares.

696
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Branford also top six and defending their own penalty

697
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 3: area right against Arsenal and BJ.

698
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: I think that point it's starting to get back into

699
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: handicapping more. I think as industry, like we started to

700
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 2: kind of just like look almost squarely at the numbers,

701
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: and now we're starting to see people show like raw

702
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 2: handicapping skill. And one of those things is, like you said,

703
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: a team pulling in the right direction should upgrade them.

704
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: I think yeah, and effort does get shown in numbers too. Yeah,

705
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: Eventually it's both ways. Like you know, obviously, one part

706
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 1: of handicapping is you have to watch the match and

707
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: you have to actually see how this team is playing.

708
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: And then the other one is obviously in the numbers.

709
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: And if you see a team putting in great effort defending, well,

710
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: well that's going to translate to a lot of the

711
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: numbers that maybe aren't the most important in terms of

712
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:53,040
Speaker 1: you know, essentially chance creation goals, but like things that

713
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: happen in the middle of the pitch, you know, that's

714
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,520
Speaker 1: where a lot of the effort comes from. So yeah, yeah,

715
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: to your point, Yeah, you're right, Michael.

716
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: That kind of brings me to this next match. Everton

717
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,720
Speaker 2: plus one ninety at home against west Ham plus one

718
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: forty the draws plus two forty at Betre six five.

719
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: We saw it with Everton last season. They were terrible

720
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 2: and then they started playing hard with their backs of

721
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 2: the wall and then they started winning. I mean, did

722
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 2: they deserve to win games? Sometimes now, but like just

723
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 2: being in the fight matters, and they weren't that under

724
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: Ralfa Benitez, and they started to do it under Lampard

725
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: and this team. I don't think the numbers are going

726
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: to show it just yet, but it's clear that they're better.

727
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: Ghana and Onana in the middle of the field will

728
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 2: improve the defense. It allows alex it Wobe with a

729
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 2: little more freedom with the ball of his feet. He

730
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 2: has to do less defending. The Jordan Pickford injury is concerning,

731
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 2: but they got asked me Begovic, so you know, no

732
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: big deal. Meanwhile, west Ham, in a weird way, they've

733
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 2: kind of flipped the script on last season. We were

734
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: questioning their defense. Their offense looked fine. They were they

735
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 2: were creating chances, they were giving teams trouble. But this

736
00:33:56,080 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: year they're starting they're struggling to create scoring chances teenth

737
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: in big chances created seventeenth and not penalty expected goals.

738
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 1: But their defensive.

739
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 2: Numbers are decent, you know, they're they're kind of where

740
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 2: you would expect the David Moy's team to be, you know,

741
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: in a like seven to nine tenth range. But Everden's

742
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 2: defense it's struggled but like I said, I do think

743
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: there's improvement coming. They won't show up in the numbers

744
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 2: just yet, but you want to beat the market to

745
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:26,320
Speaker 2: those improvements. So if the west Ham defense offense is struggling,

746
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,040
Speaker 2: I don't think they'll be able to truly take advantage

747
00:34:29,080 --> 00:34:32,240
Speaker 2: of this Everdent defense, as wobbly as it might seem.

748
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 2: So I think as a home underdog, Frank Lampard's topees

749
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:40,319
Speaker 2: have some value here. BJ, what do you have?

750
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,760
Speaker 1: I generally would agree. I don't think west Ham should

751
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 1: be necessarily a slight favorite on the road a Goodison Park.

752
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,920
Speaker 1: I'm not playing anything in this match. Yeah, it's it's

753
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: interesting because we talked about it, you know, on the

754
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 1: pod last time. But Everton, I just I don't really

755
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: know what to make them. I feel like Lampard's falling

756
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: back into the rafa benitask goal of like let's just

757
00:35:01,560 --> 00:35:03,879
Speaker 1: stay compact and try to counter like that. God could

758
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,759
Speaker 1: wing backs to play a three four three and like

759
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 1: you mentioned Donana and Gonna, the midfield definitely improves them

760
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: from Andre Gomsen decore but Downiny Calvert Lewin might be

761
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 1: back for this match, Like that would be good, right,

762
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 1: you know, it help them. I actually have an out

763
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: and out striker up top other than Neil Mape and

764
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 1: Anthony Gordon's looked fantastic. The west Ham thing like they

765
00:35:26,640 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: looked good against Chelsea, like they responded well against Tottenham.

766
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 1: But you know, plus one fifty five slight favorite on

767
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: the road at Everton, I need to creep up a

768
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: little bit more Like I have west Ham around plus

769
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: one sixty and Everton around plus one eighty, So I'm

770
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: gonna to Everton, you know, plus two twenty or maybe

771
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 1: you know John o Bett at plus one ten plus

772
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 1: one twenty to actually play the Toppees. But yeah, west

773
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 1: Ham definitely should not be a slight road favorite given

774
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: what we've seen from them this season. I mean they

775
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: haven't created over like an expected Golpronini, but they also

776
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 1: haven't allowed over expected culture ninety like the one of

777
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 1: the most low event teams in the Premier League right now,

778
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: which is kind of shocking when you think of what

779
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 1: they were last year. So ultimately I'm just passing on

780
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:08,400
Speaker 1: this one.

781
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: David Moyes went for being the most predictable manager in

782
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: the league. Like to he starts stowing us for curve

783
00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 2: balls left and right, God love him all right. That

784
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 2: wraps up the Premier League. Let's jump around Europe a

785
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 2: little bit. Will start in the Bundesliga and we will

786
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 2: start with Anthony.

787
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, big win for Iron Track. Frankfurt against Marseille and

788
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,879
Speaker 3: the luck Box Bowl on two I didn't watch.

789
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 2: That was too easy.

790
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 1: That one was.

791
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 3: The under was beautiful, I will say. But that being said,

792
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 3: now Frankfurt goes on short rest on the road to Stuttgart.

793
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 3: This is a basic projection edge for me. This market

794
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 3: has moved a little bit up to minus one thirty

795
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 3: of the drawn no bet line. I still like it.

796
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 3: Stutgart is the better team based on last year's expected

797
00:36:47,520 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 3: goals based on this year's expected goals. They're at home

798
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,479
Speaker 3: and so that's good enough for me to bet them

799
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 3: as pretty close to a toss up in this match.

800
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 3: So I like Stutgart at home. Glad Bach Leipzig a

801
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 3: so is the big match on Saturday. I will be

802
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 3: previewing the Bundesliga slate on the Action Network site and

803
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 3: we'll be touching on that game. Glad bog playing a

804
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 3: little differently this year. The defense is improving, so there'll

805
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 3: be an interesting matchup after Lpezig broke our hearts today.

806
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 3: Marco rose Bol, well he's had We've had all the

807
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 3: Marco Rosie Yeah.

808
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, another one, yeah, just another one.

809
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 2: Here the love triangle. I'm gonna move to Wolfsburg plus

810
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 2: two eighty. I'm going against one of my my boys,

811
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: Unjan Berlin. I got plenty of love for this team,

812
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,359
Speaker 2: obviously bet them a lot, but the number is just way,

813
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: way too high for a team with a minus one

814
00:37:35,760 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 2: point four expected gold differential. Now one point two of

815
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 2: that has come from their game against Byron, but that's

816
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 2: still a negative expected gold differential for the first place

817
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: team in the Bundesliga. So this is just a simple

818
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 2: cell high spot on Unyan. They're playing Europa League also

819
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 2: on Thursday, so we'll have a little bit of a

820
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: rest disadvantage. So give me Volfsburg, who have been not

821
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 2: good to start the season plus two eighty hash place

822
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 2: last week.

823
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, Nam Berlin has the third lowest expected goal. I

824
00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 3: cannot believe we haven't in the whole league and the

825
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 3: first I.

826
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 1: Have some hilarious don't they win the league like this?

827
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: Right?

828
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 3: Have some hilarious certain By the way, the American.

829
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: YEP thirteen, So I'm on the same match, Michael. I'm

830
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: on both teams to score now in that match at

831
00:38:19,000 --> 00:38:21,760
Speaker 1: plus one ten, it should not be plus money Union Berlin.

832
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:23,839
Speaker 1: I can't, I seriously cannot believe we haven't talked about

833
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 1: them yet on this podcast. Thirteen goals off of four

834
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 1: point seven expected. That is the second lowest offensive output

835
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: to Augsburg in the Bundesliga. They've taken thirty five shots

836
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 1: in the penalty area, that's second to last. They have

837
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty progressive passes, that's dead last. They

838
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 1: have the worst pass for defensive action, the lowest high turnovers.

839
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:48,319
Speaker 1: They've completed the most crosses into the penalty area and

840
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 1: there so of their thirteen goals, one was an own goal,

841
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: so they're twelve goals they've scored. The I added up

842
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:58,319
Speaker 1: the combined XG of those twelve goals is point nine

843
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:03,040
Speaker 1: to eight. Like they have made so many low quality chances.

844
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 1: It is insane. And really it's style of play right,

845
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:07,520
Speaker 1: it's the it's a three to five to two which

846
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: becomes a five three to two. They play very compact,

847
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 1: extremely direct, and they there's no build up play. It's

848
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 1: just once you get the ball, send the ball up

849
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: to the forwards and let's just try to play two

850
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:18,960
Speaker 1: on two, three on two, try to win some headers.

851
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 1: I mean, you go through it. Like their average holding

852
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 1: line is thirty nine point seven percent, Like they have

853
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: the second lowest pass completion rate. And I mean, but

854
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: we'll say this, if you play a five to three

855
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: to two like you have to be get Defensively, they

856
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 1: have been pretty good. I mean there's six point seven.

857
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 3: They always yeah from seven piece as well. I don't know,

858
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 3: they have a great formula for being like the sixth

859
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: best team in the Bundeslig.

860
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 1: Right, but well, they play very different than anybody else

861
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:45,400
Speaker 1: in the bud. They don't press like they just yeah,

862
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,879
Speaker 1: and you know, as far as Wolfsbur's concerned, like they're

863
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:49,919
Speaker 1: another team like aston Villa, like they're doing a great

864
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:52,799
Speaker 1: job getting in the final third. They just cannot do

865
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: anything in front of net. I mean they're expected threat.

866
00:39:57,440 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 1: What's that? Lucas metscha and know, right, Golden looking pretty

867
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 1: good right now, one point five six expected throughout per ninety.

868
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 1: They've turned that into point eight nine x sheep for ninety.

869
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: Like they just haven't done anything in the final third.

870
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: So how I think we'll tak down a little bit.

871
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: They're not a bottom five team and they're no, they're not.

872
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 3: But like and this is classic bi lo Soe high.

873
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, so both teams to score. Now, I don't

874
00:40:18,239 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 1: think she plus money at all. I have projected minus

875
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:22,959
Speaker 1: one twenty five. So I'm just on a both teams score,

876
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,600
Speaker 1: no spree in this podcast, and I'm probably gonna keep going.

877
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 3: You want to go into an internet watching these games

878
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 3: this weekend, Like I was watching the Champions League on

879
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 3: Tuesday when I had four separate unders. Just if there's

880
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 3: no Udio show, but just sitting on the Glosso show

881
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 3: clenched every time they switch to again.

882
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:39,360
Speaker 1: That's all I do every single weekend. I just stay

883
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,799
Speaker 1: clenched every match. You know, if I'm not watching the match,

884
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: I'm like constantly just double checking my phone to see

885
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: if I got a notification or not from a goal.

886
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 1: And once I see notification, I just like sink in

887
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,040
Speaker 1: my seat. I don't even want to know what happened.

888
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: So that's basically how I spend my weekends.

889
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 2: It's great, let's move to La Liga Atletico Madrid and

890
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 2: Real Major in a Madrid derby. That is the headliner here.

891
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 2: I actually have a bet on this one. I like

892
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: at Letty on the money line. I'm just gonna keep betting.

893
00:41:07,640 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 3: I guess Real Madrid until they lose, because I'm gonna

894
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 3: get I love.

895
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 2: Real Madrid because of what they did have done to

896
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 2: Liverpool twice in the Champions League final, and I love

897
00:41:17,680 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 2: Carlo Ancelotti because he is everden through and through as

898
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 2: he's shown us. But I mean they just are just.

899
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 2: They should have been down to nothing in the first

900
00:41:26,280 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes. I guess against Madrid they should have been

901
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 2: down to nothing. I mean, I guess Leipzig they should

902
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 2: have been done to nothing against Celtic and like the

903
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 2: first fifty minutes. I love them. But there's one team

904
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 2: you can to get away with dark magic against, and

905
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: that's the team that does dark magic better than anybody else,

906
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: and that's at Lettiico Madrid, who weren't very good in

907
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 2: their Champions League. No, they weren't, which is fine. I

908
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 2: mean that's fine, you can't win them all, but I

909
00:41:48,920 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: like that Letty here. You gotta keep selling high on Madrid.

910
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 2: B J.

911
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of like over two animals at minus

912
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,880
Speaker 1: one O five, which kind of sounds dumb, but I

913
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: mean listen, when these two played like towards the end

914
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,839
Speaker 1: of last season, it's it's a good sample, right because

915
00:42:02,880 --> 00:42:07,399
Speaker 1: Benzema didn't play, they started Jovi Cup top and at

916
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: Lettiko put on a counter attacking clinic against them. I

917
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 1: mean they created close to three expected goals, they won

918
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 1: the match one nothing, and I expect them to do

919
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: pretty much the same here because I don't think, like

920
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,760
Speaker 1: Anthony already mentioned, I don't think Riamidas solved their defensive problems,

921
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 1: and I don't think they solved their defensive transition problems either.

922
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: So you know, Chimani is a great, you know, holding midfielder,

923
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 1: but I mean Cruiz is aging Modrick. They just don't

924
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 1: do a lot of defending. You know, if Kamavinga plays

925
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 1: like that helps a little bit. But if you're just

926
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,280
Speaker 1: if you're just relying on one guy to basically stop

927
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 1: defensive transition like man like, that's that's troublesome. So yeah,

928
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: I have close to three projected, which I was kind

929
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 1: of shocked to see. But again, you go back to

930
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 1: last season, Madrid was fifteenth non penalty expected goals low like,

931
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: they were not a good defense, So I'm I'm betting

932
00:42:57,440 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 1: at Letiko to put on a counter attacking clinic again year,

933
00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 1: and I'm I'm betting on goals over two and a

934
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:03,799
Speaker 1: half for me.

935
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,080
Speaker 2: And you have another LA League, I bet you want

936
00:43:07,080 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 2: to sprinkle on.

937
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's just keep the both teams to score no

938
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 1: train rolling chugging along, oh sasunna Guitafe like maybe the

939
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,200
Speaker 1: most most like both teams to score no match of

940
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: all time. It's minus one sixty. It's a it's a

941
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 1: it's a big price, Jesus. But well, when you get

942
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 1: into what Gatafe is actually done offensively, like it is,

943
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,919
Speaker 1: it is quite shocking. Since the start of last season,

944
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 1: they're at point seven six x g for ninety. They've

945
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 1: created twenty one big scoring chances in forty three matches

946
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 1: and this is this one just takes the cake. They're

947
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: averaging six and a half box centries per ninety like

948
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: that is the worst in all of Europe's Big five leagues.

949
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:50,480
Speaker 1: And what you have with both these teams, it's four

950
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: four to two compact counter attacking styles. There's not going

951
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,279
Speaker 1: to be any possession needed. Team's gonna want to come

952
00:43:56,280 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 1: out of their defensive structure. It's just going to be

953
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 1: an absolute defensive slug fest for all ninety minutes, and

954
00:44:02,200 --> 00:44:04,480
Speaker 1: I'm going to love every second of it because I

955
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:06,839
Speaker 1: mean also sooner, like they they've been good, Like they're

956
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: in the top four right now with La Liga, Like

957
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: they have nine expected goals, but they have had three penalties.

958
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:16,359
Speaker 1: They have been good defensively, I mean they've only allowed

959
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: a little over three goals. Like they've allowed the clowest

960
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 1: shots in laal Liga. Like they're tied with Barcelona only

961
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 1: thirty eight shots allowed and they've only allowed nineteen of

962
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:24,040
Speaker 1: those in the penalty are Like, this is a really

963
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 1: good defense. I don't know how Guitafe gets through in score.

964
00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: It's like if they do, it's going to be one

965
00:44:29,080 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: chance and that's it. Like I so I have both

966
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 1: team score no projecting at minus two forty two. I

967
00:44:35,880 --> 00:44:38,239
Speaker 1: think that might be the highest b t ats no

968
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 1: I think I've ever projected. But there is value on it.

969
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 1: So I'm paying last one sixty for this to be

970
00:44:44,080 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 1: a very big time defensive slug fest.

971
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 2: Yeah and day, I don't know how you get top that,

972
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 2: but go right ahead and try.

973
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 3: I mean I can't, but I can't believe be Jay's

974
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 3: laying mine as one six. I'm doing it both teams

975
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,799
Speaker 3: to score. No proud, that is bold. I'll give it

976
00:44:57,800 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 3: to him. I like theory O at home, I teach

977
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 3: the Champions League preview pod. I took that before Beja

978
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 3: had the chance.

979
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 1: Sevilla, why, byways, is why I'm playing BTS No because

980
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 1: Anthony took this from me.

981
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I made sure to have this one when

982
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 3: we talked about it. You know, Savilla went to Copenhagen today.

983
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 3: They created less than one expected goal a week after

984
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 3: dortmun thrashed him. They had a weekend win, first win

985
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 3: of the season against Espignol. But they can see the

986
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:25,279
Speaker 3: two point four expected goals. They've now allowed twelve and

987
00:45:25,480 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 3: change expected goals in their last five matches in all

988
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:32,560
Speaker 3: competitions against al Maria, Barcelona, Man City, Espanol and Copenhagen.

989
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 3: So yeah, a couple of good teams in there, but

990
00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 3: a couple of pretty bad ones too. So this Sevia team,

991
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:39,399
Speaker 3: they're one of the oldest in all of Europe's top

992
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 3: five leagues. I think that is the biggest indicator here.

993
00:45:42,360 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 3: We've talked about losing Kundei and Diego, Carlos that's of

994
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 3: course important, but again they are one of the oldest teams.

995
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 3: They are aging poorly. They're on the road against Virial,

996
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:53,960
Speaker 3: and I hate the fact that Virial has run so

997
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 3: well defensively to start the season. But they did just

998
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 3: get off of a brutal loss to Betis in which

999
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:01,759
Speaker 3: they created over expected goals and failed to score. No

1000
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 3: idea how that game I did one nil, but good

1001
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 3: bounce back spot. They do have a Conference league road trip.

1002
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:08,279
Speaker 3: It seems like it's pricedon maybe a little bit here

1003
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 3: because they go to Israel on Thursday. But again this

1004
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 3: line is short. I mean, the Viriah should be a

1005
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: bigger favorite at home, given how much better they are.

1006
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 2: Now, all right, let's real quick talk about Syria, Anthony,

1007
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 2: right back to you.

1008
00:46:21,000 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: Yeah to Reno minus one twenty at home against a

1009
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,919
Speaker 3: Swallow pretty much the same exact thing, I mean last year,

1010
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 3: much like Sevilla, so Swallow ran extremely well on expected goals.

1011
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 3: They're also an older age profile. They also lost a

1012
00:46:35,640 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 3: key player with Jean Lucas Kamaka being gone. They are

1013
00:46:38,320 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 3: also in a state of financial ruin at the moment,

1014
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,400
Speaker 3: in the sense that they are barely you know, making payments.

1015
00:46:44,440 --> 00:46:47,720
Speaker 3: And had to sell off some talent in the off season.

1016
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 3: They go on the road against the Torino side. We

1017
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 3: know what we're getting with to Reno, much like we

1018
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: know we're getting with Virial weekend and week out, sturdy

1019
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 3: defensive performance. But the attack has shown some signs of life.

1020
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 3: I know Yurich was complaining to the board before the

1021
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 3: season after they sold Blatti that he didn't have a striker,

1022
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 3: But you know what, the attack has not really been

1023
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,439
Speaker 3: bad this season. They've produced it a pretty high rate

1024
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: and they've played tough against some pretty good teams. I

1025
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:15,319
Speaker 3: mean they created, played inter about even produced over two

1026
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 3: expected goals on three different occasions. I'm buying Torino here

1027
00:47:18,200 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 3: at home against an overrated to swallow Beaj.

1028
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 2: What do you have for us in Italy?

1029
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: I got an ugly Bilo here. Juventus minus one twenty

1030
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 1: on the road at Monza. I mean, Juventus has been horrible,

1031
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 1: like there's just no way to sugarcoat it at this point.

1032
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 1: But Monza, this team is awful defensively. I mean they've

1033
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 1: allowed in six matches, they've allowed twelve expected goals, eighteen

1034
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. They've allowed fourteen shots inside the six

1035
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: yard box that's last and Serriae and that's insane. For context,

1036
00:47:48,200 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: Napolily only allowed twenty one total shots in their six

1037
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 1: yard bucks for the entirety of last season. That's how

1038
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 1: bad Mons has been defensively. And they a lot one

1039
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 1: hundred and eio touches in their own penalty area. It's

1040
00:47:59,000 --> 00:48:01,839
Speaker 1: the what's crazy is like Manza, they're trying to play

1041
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: this possession based style that got them promoted into Syria A,

1042
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 1: and it's just flat out not working at all. Like

1043
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: their bottom five and direct speed. They have more build

1044
00:48:09,719 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 1: up attacks than direct attacks. Their sequence times fifth highest

1045
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,600
Speaker 1: in Syria. So if they continue on this style of play,

1046
00:48:15,600 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 1: I just like, hey, we're gonna try to control possession

1047
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 1: and just basically take it to the big boys. It's

1048
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: like not going to adapt at all in Syria A.

1049
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: So I mean event is like I don't know what

1050
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 1: we say at this point, like a lagry is probably

1051
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 1: gonna get fired here pretty soon. They ended up creating

1052
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 1: two point two expectables and Sealarnytana, but they went behind

1053
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: to nothing, so I can't.

1054
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 3: Really all came in stoppage time if you want.

1055
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then and yes, it was chaos Yeah, that's right,

1056
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:39,680
Speaker 1: that's that's the point. But I mean minus one twenty

1057
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,600
Speaker 1: in the road is awfully cheap against this horrible defense.

1058
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: So it's ugly, but I'm playing events. It's minus one

1059
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 1: twenty on the road at Monza.

1060
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 2: Skip over to France. Now, I think every time we

1061
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 2: talk about PSG Man City they're not good or Bayern Munich.

1062
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:59,240
Speaker 2: Usually when we're when we're talking about or teasing these matches,

1063
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 2: it's either a bet on the under or a feed. Anthony,

1064
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 2: you have one of those bets for us this week?

1065
00:49:05,560 --> 00:49:07,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I might be doing both, but my best bet

1066
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 3: is leon PSG under three and a half. Again just

1067
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 3: an inflated total on PSG. They went to Maccabi Haifa

1068
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 3: today and they created just over one expected goal. It

1069
00:49:17,640 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 3: was black cluster will say they created a few chances

1070
00:49:21,040 --> 00:49:24,520
Speaker 3: and ultimately deserve to win. But look like Hipha was

1071
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 3: in it, like they were no point out of it,

1072
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:30,919
Speaker 3: So that's concerning good call bj on Haipha still lost

1073
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 3: the under. Yeah, of course, of course they scored late,

1074
00:49:34,320 --> 00:49:35,080
Speaker 3: but that's a given.

1075
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 2: Well, we've never won a bet in a PSG match

1076
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:38,040
Speaker 2: on this podcast.

1077
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 3: Ever, that's not true. That is not true.

1078
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:41,839
Speaker 2: Never I don't care what you said, I don't care

1079
00:49:41,880 --> 00:49:42,399
Speaker 2: what he said.

1080
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 1: I don't care what science we've not ever, I believe.

1081
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: We definitely want to Mona against Monica once a couple

1082
00:49:50,120 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 3: of weeks ago. Anyway, I like getting three and a

1083
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 3: half here again. PSG on the road tough spot at Leon.

1084
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 3: Leon's second best underline numbers in France. They were underrated

1085
00:49:58,520 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 3: last year. At the end of the season, they were

1086
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: at team who consistently underperformed. They're expected goals numbers. They're

1087
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 3: a classic Bilo team who made improvements in the offseason

1088
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 3: despite losing. How are So I like what I'm seeing here.

1089
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 3: I like the under I think this is a very

1090
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:13,560
Speaker 3: competitive match and unless Namar, I mean, look, Neymar has

1091
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 3: been incredible to start the season, but we know over

1092
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 3: the course of his career he's pretty much a goals

1093
00:50:18,160 --> 00:50:21,160
Speaker 3: minus XG finisher, Like his goals equals XG is where

1094
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 3: he's going to be, and he's running well above that,

1095
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 3: and I'm just skeptical that that's going to continue. So

1096
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 3: I think that's really where you're seeing a lot of

1097
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 3: this PSG love in the market. And really the defense

1098
00:50:32,080 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 3: has still been pretty good France. I mean the defense

1099
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 3: is definitely better than it was last year for PSG,

1100
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 3: even if they're not creating, you know, necessarily as much

1101
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 3: in these other matches in the Champions League against Juventus

1102
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:43,960
Speaker 3: and hyphen MBJ.

1103
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 2: Over to you before we get to our underdogs and

1104
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 2: best bets.

1105
00:50:48,160 --> 00:50:50,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, first off, I just looked at the schedule

1106
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 1: and PSG's got a road trip to Benefica on my birthday.

1107
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: What a great birthday present that's going to be for me. Anyway,

1108
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 1: I like a Jacquesio plus half a goal of minus

1109
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 1: one twenty on the road at Stott de Breswad. This

1110
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:06,160
Speaker 1: is stotted breastwas team. They're weird, like they they haven't

1111
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,759
Speaker 1: been good defensively, like they've allowed over eleven expected goals

1112
00:51:08,760 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 1: in seven matches, Like they're middle of the road in

1113
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:13,759
Speaker 1: every defensive category. But they're a team searching for some

1114
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:16,160
Speaker 1: type of identity right now. So towards the end of

1115
00:51:16,239 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 1: last season, they were set up in a four to

1116
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:21,680
Speaker 1: four to two. They played very direct, very countertacking. They

1117
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:24,280
Speaker 1: started off playing that same formation first match in the season,

1118
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 1: they just got absolutely pasted by Lens So they abandoned

1119
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 1: that and they say, all right, we're gonna play a

1120
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,799
Speaker 1: four to three to three. The next two matches, they

1121
00:51:30,800 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 1: play well against Marseille, they created over two expected goals.

1122
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 1: They get a win against on Jais, and then they

1123
00:51:36,239 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 1: go they host Montpellier and they got paced in seven

1124
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: to nothing, one of the weirdest score lines across Europe

1125
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 1: this season. And then they just abandoned the four three

1126
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 1: three and they know we're gonna play now, we're gonna

1127
00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:48,879
Speaker 1: play four two three one and it didn't go well.

1128
00:51:49,200 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 1: I created in two matches against Rand and Strasbourg, you know,

1129
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 1: three to one on XG until this last match they

1130
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 1: changed to a three four to three, which really ended

1131
00:51:58,200 --> 00:51:59,880
Speaker 1: up becoming a five to three to two against PSG

1132
00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:02,960
Speaker 1: and they just sat very compact and paid played very defensive.

1133
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 1: But the last four matches, I mean they've been out

1134
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: created one point eight x sheet to seven. So this

1135
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 1: is not a good team that doesn't really know what

1136
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:13,840
Speaker 1: kind of style they're playing right now, and a jacquesco

1137
00:52:14,200 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 1: you know, they're a newly promoted team. They've been pretty unlucky.

1138
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 1: They only have one point through the first seven matches,

1139
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: but minus eight actual ole differential and minus one point

1140
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: two expected goal differential, they've actually been very threatening in

1141
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 1: the final third like they had they are top six

1142
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 1: and expected threat like they have a plus point three

1143
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,439
Speaker 1: to six expected threat differential like actually kind of impressive stuff.

1144
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 1: But they just can't turn anything, you know, in the

1145
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 1: final third into any type of chance at the end

1146
00:52:37,920 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: of it. But I really don't think berest should be

1147
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:42,440
Speaker 1: an even money favorite here at home, even though it

1148
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: is a Jacquesville, even though they are newly promoted. So

1149
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 1: I like a jacksone plus half a goal on the road.

1150
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:49,760
Speaker 2: And now we move on to our favorite part of

1151
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 2: the program, our three leg money line underdog Parley Anthony.

1152
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 2: You t used your team earlier, so we'll let you

1153
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 2: kick it off.

1154
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Branford at home against our luck. I mean,

1155
00:53:02,040 --> 00:53:04,240
Speaker 3: Brentford have been one of the best at taking scalps

1156
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 3: off the Big six in the last year and a

1157
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 3: half since joining the league. The underlying numbers are very impressive.

1158
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 3: They defend their box well top six and both crosses

1159
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 3: and box entries allowed. Arsenal has been excellent. It's very

1160
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 3: hard to poke holes and what Arsenal have done to

1161
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 3: start the season despite their loss to United, but the

1162
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 3: market continues to give them a little bit too much

1163
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 3: love for me, and this number is a little bit

1164
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: too high. So I like Brentford at home on the

1165
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 3: money line as well. Plus three thirty for me. Wolfsburg

1166
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 3: plus two eighty against Unyan Berlin. I really do love

1167
00:53:35,760 --> 00:53:39,279
Speaker 3: Unja Berlin. I love dark magic teams. I let it

1168
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 3: Co Madrid and.

1169
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 2: The Iron Ones. But I mean at some point there

1170
00:53:44,440 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 2: comes a price, and even though Wolfsburg are off to

1171
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,600
Speaker 2: a terrible start in the Bundesliga, we do expect them

1172
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 2: to start trending up at some point. Meanwhile, Junyan have

1173
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:56,120
Speaker 2: a minus point one point four expect to go differential

1174
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:58,440
Speaker 2: on the season. Now well, one point two of that

1175
00:53:58,480 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 2: comes in a result. It's Byron Munich, a draw that's

1176
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 2: still negative in their first place in the Bundesliga, despite

1177
00:54:05,960 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 2: creating the second least expected goals on the season, a

1178
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 2: classic cell high spot on un Yan. So give me

1179
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,879
Speaker 2: Volsburg plus to eighty Beija.

1180
00:54:17,160 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 1: Friday afternoon, Southampton plus two to fifty on the road

1181
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 1: at aston Villa. We already talked about it. Aston Villa

1182
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 1: just really a horrible offensive team under Steven Gerrard, only

1183
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,600
Speaker 1: four and a half expected goals created every six matches.

1184
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,600
Speaker 1: If you take away the Everton match, they haven't created

1185
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: a big scoring chance. They're struggling mightily to turn final

1186
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 1: third possession into any type of chance inside the box.

1187
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 1: And the Southampton defense has improved quite a bit, you know. Offensively,

1188
00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: they still are averaging under one expected goal per match.

1189
00:54:43,200 --> 00:54:46,280
Speaker 1: But this is the Southampton team that's played well from behind,

1190
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 1: that can create things going forward, that has a lot

1191
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:50,640
Speaker 1: of young talent now. So the price of plus two

1192
00:54:50,640 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 1: to fifty I think is wonderful and aston Villa is

1193
00:54:52,920 --> 00:54:54,600
Speaker 1: definitely on our team you want to bet as a favorite,

1194
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 1: so give me the Saints is as underdogs on the

1195
00:54:56,760 --> 00:54:58,160
Speaker 1: road on Friday at plus two to fifty.

1196
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's close up this shot with our favorite

1197
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:05,320
Speaker 2: Premier League bets for the upcoming shortened match week seven games.

1198
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 2: To choose from Anthony, what did you LANDA.

1199
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Fulham and Nottingham Forrest under two point five.

1200
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:18,040
Speaker 3: I understand how bad the Nottingham Forest defense is. It's

1201
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:19,719
Speaker 3: the worst in the league. But Fulham goes on the

1202
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:23,040
Speaker 3: road now and the attack has relied so heavily on

1203
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 3: Alexander Mitchrovitch that I'm not quite sure where the rest

1204
00:55:26,440 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 3: of the goals come from. They're a team who continues

1205
00:55:28,320 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 3: to be due for unders based on what they did

1206
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 3: last season in the Championship, when they put up historic

1207
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:36,800
Speaker 3: goal scoring numbers but also overperformed by over twenty goals

1208
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:38,239
Speaker 3: over the course of the season when you look at

1209
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 3: goals minus expected goals, and there are still a pretty

1210
00:55:42,200 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: bad attacking unit in Nottingham forest eighteenth in non penalty

1211
00:55:45,440 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 3: expected goals. Fulham's defense has represented itself well when they

1212
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 3: haven't played against the top sides, and so I think

1213
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:56,320
Speaker 3: that gets me there. This is an ugly Friday afternoon

1214
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 3: play under two and a half. My best bet for

1215
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 3: the weekend, I'll go to Sunday morning.

1216
00:56:01,520 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 2: I like Everton, Yes they are my team, but I

1217
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:06,320
Speaker 2: like the number here plus one ninety. A lot of

1218
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 2: sports betting just comes down to beating the market to something,

1219
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 2: and I think there's improvement coming from the Taffees and

1220
00:56:12,480 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 2: a lot of it is just personnel. They get a

1221
00:56:15,040 --> 00:56:18,600
Speaker 2: Jusa Gana Gay back in the lineup. They'll get Dominic

1222
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:21,600
Speaker 2: Calvert Lewin perhaps back in the lineup. This team should

1223
00:56:21,719 --> 00:56:23,399
Speaker 2: start trending up. Do I think that they're a better

1224
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,840
Speaker 2: team than west Ham? No, I do not, but I

1225
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: don't think the gap is wide enough that west Ham

1226
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 2: should be this big of a road favorite. So I'm

1227
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:33,480
Speaker 2: going to take a shot on the Taffees at Goodison

1228
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:36,800
Speaker 2: Park to get their first win of the season everdent

1229
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:38,399
Speaker 2: for me, BJ, what about you?

1230
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 1: I'm going Wolves Manchester City both teams to score no

1231
00:56:42,280 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 1: at minus one ten. This Wolve's team's playing a little

1232
00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 1: different than last year. They're starting to control a little

1233
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,240
Speaker 1: bit more possession. They're playing much better in the midfield,

1234
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:52,480
Speaker 1: but they can't turn anything from the final third into

1235
00:56:52,520 --> 00:56:54,919
Speaker 1: any type of chance at the end. Now. They don't

1236
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 1: have any striking options right now. It's Diego Costa and

1237
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 1: Ral Jomenez like those are under point twenty five. I've

1238
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:02,120
Speaker 1: actually for ninety minutes Stria here in the Mare League.

1239
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:06,040
Speaker 1: So trying to threaten a Manchester City defense that has

1240
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 1: been outstanding when they're playing against teams that are going

1241
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 1: to play low blocks. I mean City is back to

1242
00:57:10,719 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 1: playing their pragmatic, possession based stranglehold style that they did

1243
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 1: for most of the Premier League during their title run

1244
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 1: last season. They're on average holding seventy two percent possession.

1245
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 1: They have a lower direct speed than they did last

1246
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 1: season and This is the type of match where we've

1247
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,480
Speaker 1: already seen it four times this season when they play

1248
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: teams that are going to play low blocks like Bournemouth,

1249
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:35,200
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and aston Villa. City over those

1250
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: four matches only allowed one expected goal in sixteen shots

1251
00:57:38,440 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 1: to those four teams. So I don't see how Wolves,

1252
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:42,760
Speaker 1: who's probably going to sit back in some type of

1253
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:46,520
Speaker 1: compact defensive style, is going to threaten City on the counter.

1254
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 1: So I have both team to score no projected at

1255
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: minus one thirty seven, so I like the price of

1256
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 1: minus one ten. All right.

1257
00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 2: That wraps up another episode of Wonder Goal, presented by

1258
00:57:57,400 --> 00:57:59,959
Speaker 2: Bet three six y five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

1259
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:02,280
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1260
00:58:02,360 --> 00:58:05,360
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1261
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 2: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred free.

1262
00:58:08,840 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 2: There's an international break looming on the other side of

1263
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:12,920
Speaker 2: this weekend, so you won't hear from us for a

1264
00:58:12,920 --> 00:58:15,320
Speaker 2: little bit, but until then, best of luck with all

1265
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,200
Speaker 2: your bets for BJ Counningham and Anthony Dubundo. Thank you

1266
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 2: for listening.