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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak Europe podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the seventeenth of December in London.

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Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Bloomberg Intelligence finds the

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Speaker 1: biggest listed firms won't bear the brunt of the UK's

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Speaker 1: national insurance hike. Donald Trump says Ukraine needs to reach

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Speaker 1: a deal to end Russia's invasion. Plus why the runaway

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Speaker 1: success of Novo Nordisk and its weight loss drugs are

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Speaker 1: causing headaches for other businesses in Denmark. Let's start with

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Speaker 1: a roundup of our top stories. Exclusive analysis from Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: shows the majority of Britain's biggest listed companies will account

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Speaker 1: for less than three percent of the revenue raised by

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Speaker 1: Labour's increased payroll tax. James Wilcock has the story.

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Kids Stama promised to target those with the

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Speaker 2: broadest shoulders when he came into office. However, Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: has found that chance of Rachel Reeves's plans to raise

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Speaker 2: up to twenty six billion pounds a year from a

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Speaker 2: hike to national insurance will be hitting firms that depend

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Speaker 2: on British workers rather than the UK's biggest companies. Bloomberg's

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Speaker 2: calculations found that a group of eighty eight foot one

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Speaker 2: hundred businesses will pay just two point four percent of

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Speaker 2: the total amount the Treasury is hoping to raise. That

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg reporting comes as resignaled that any further shortfall to

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Speaker 2: government funding will be dealt with by spending cuts. That's

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Speaker 2: the head of the next update from the Budget Watchdog.

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Speaker 2: In March in London, James Wilcock Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio, China's Foreign Ministry says the country's actions have all

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Speaker 1: been above board. After the Chinese businessman at the center

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Speaker 1: of spying allegations was named in the High Court in London.

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Speaker 1: Yang Tengbo, who acted as a business advisor to Prince Andrew,

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Speaker 1: has been banned from the UK on national security grounds,

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Speaker 1: but insists he's done nothing wrong. Speaking yesterday, the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Kir Starmer defended his approach to relations with Beijing.

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Speaker 3: It's important to engage. Of course, we have to challenge

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Speaker 3: where we must, but it's better to engage to challenge

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Speaker 3: than to stay aside. As it were important to cooperate

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Speaker 3: where we can on issues like climate change. I'm very

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Speaker 3: pleased with the engagement and the progress that we've made.

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Speaker 1: The latest developments have put pressure on Starmar's plan to

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Speaker 1: boost ties with Beijing and sparks demands for tougher restrictions

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Speaker 1: on China's operatives. In the UK, Donald Trump says Ukraine

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Speaker 1: needs to reach a deal to end the Russian invasion.

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Speaker 1: The US president elect also criticize the Biden administration's decision

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Speaker 1: to allow Kiev to use US made weapons to strike

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Speaker 1: deeper into Russian territory. Here's some of what Trump told

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Speaker 1: reporters at his Florida home.

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Speaker 4: You believe you've got to be a deal.

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Speaker 2: Got to be a deal.

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Speaker 4: Too many people being killed. That is a war. That's

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Speaker 4: too many people. Got to make a deal.

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Speaker 5: To make a deal to.

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Speaker 1: Deal Trump's comments comm as twelve European countries are set

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Speaker 1: to announce plans to check the insurance policies of Russian tankers.

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Speaker 1: The controls are being imposed to deter the shadow fleet

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Speaker 1: of uninsured or underinsured vessels that move millions of barrels

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Speaker 1: of Russian crude around the world in defiance of Western sanctions.

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Speaker 1: A New York State judge has rejected Donald Trump's request

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Speaker 1: to set aside his conviction in the hush money case

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Speaker 1: on the grounds of presidential immunity. The judge rejected Trump's

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Speaker 1: argument that his trial was tainted by witness testimony and

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Speaker 1: other evidence that wouldn't have been allowed under a US

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court ruling. Bloomberg's legal reporter Bob Van Varies has

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Speaker 1: the details.

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Speaker 6: Jock Marshan ruled that Trump had failed to preserve most

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Speaker 6: of the objections to the evidence that he objected to,

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Speaker 6: meaning that the judge is unable to rule on it

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Speaker 6: because he didn't object at the time. He ruled also

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Speaker 6: that even if he had preserved those objections, they would

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Speaker 6: not fall within the immunity.

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Speaker 1: Boomberg's legal reporter Bob van Varas says it's far from

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Speaker 1: certain that the case will proceed to sentencing, as the

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Speaker 1: US president elect continues to challenge the verdict. China is

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Speaker 1: said to be keeping its growth target of about five

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Speaker 1: percent for next year and raising its budget deficit to

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Speaker 1: four percent of GDP. Rujo's report comes days after top leaders,

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Speaker 1: including President Cheating Ping, held a yearly economic conference in Beijing,

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Speaker 1: where they were expected to set goals for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Both of the reported targets are in line with economists' expectations.

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Speaker 1: After policymakers stepped up pledges to increase government spending and

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Speaker 1: economic policy support, Germany is heading for early elections. Lawmakers

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Speaker 1: have voted to hold the federal election in two months time,

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Speaker 1: backing Chancellor o'll Off Schultz's plan to end his term early.

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Speaker 1: Schultz called the confidence vote after his coalition collapsed following

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Speaker 1: the firing of Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Bloomberg Television's Oliver

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Speaker 1: Crooks says the vote was a bitter personal debate.

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Speaker 5: All our Schultz was talking about the FDP, that is

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Speaker 5: the party that had the finance ministry. He's saying that

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Speaker 5: basically they're morally unfit to govern. Mertz for his part,

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Speaker 5: the head of the CDU Angla Markles, Merkel's traditional party,

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Speaker 5: so that Schultz is a sale chancellor. And then on

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Speaker 5: the other side of things, on the far right, you

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Speaker 5: have the alternative for deutsch Slann, the far right group

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Speaker 5: that has twenty percent of the vote going into this election,

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Speaker 5: saying that Germany is on the brink of collapse. In

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Speaker 5: a vote for Frederic Mertzen, the CDU is a vote

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Speaker 5: for war with Russian Crokads.

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Speaker 1: The political uncertainty comes at a delicate time for Europe's

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Speaker 1: largest economy, which has stagnated for years, and the Bank

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Speaker 1: of France has cut its twenty twenty five growth outlook

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Speaker 1: to zero point nine percent. Is the country's political upheaval

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Speaker 1: drags on. The downgrade to the forecast shows the damage

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Speaker 1: being caused by the collapse of the government. The chairman

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Speaker 1: of Angie, Jean Pierre Clamadieu, is one of the business

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Speaker 1: leaders sounding the alarm.

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Speaker 7: This situation impact business confidence high up again, that we

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Speaker 7: will have in the next few weeks more certainties and

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Speaker 7: that this will owe a business cycle to restart.

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Speaker 1: Clemadier there was speaking to Bloomberg. The French Parliament unanimously

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Speaker 1: voted through a bill to keep the state functioning as

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Speaker 1: the fourth prime minister this year looks to form a

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Speaker 1: new government. Those are your top stories on the markets.

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Speaker 1: We saw the Nasdak finishing another record high on Wall

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Speaker 1: Street yesterday, rising by one point five percent. Treasury yields

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Speaker 1: in the US dollar little changed. Brent crude fell by

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Speaker 1: point eight percent yesterday. It's a little higher today, trading

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Speaker 1: just over seventy four dollars a barrel. Bitcoin hit another

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Speaker 1: record of nearing one hundred and eight thousand. Today it's

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Speaker 1: trading just shy of one hundred and seven thousand, up

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Speaker 1: slightly on the day, and in the Asian trading session,

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Speaker 1: the Mscish Pacific indexten two tenths of one percent and

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Speaker 1: the CSI three hundred is up by half of one percent.

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Speaker 1: On those reports of hired deficit spending by China in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, Well in a moment will bring you

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Speaker 1: more on that UK tax story, plus why the success

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Speaker 1: of Novo Nordisk is causing trouble for other Danish businesses.

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Speaker 4: But first to a restaurant.

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Speaker 1: Review with a difference. They might be used to reading

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Speaker 1: about high end eateries or Mitchellin star dining from big

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Speaker 1: name chefs, but our colleague Alan Chandler Wild has been

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Speaker 1: broadening your horizons this morning with the review of the

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Speaker 1: Ratta Tooy themed restaurant in Disneyland, Paris. Firstly, she quite

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Speaker 1: rightly points out it's very difficult to get a booking

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Speaker 1: in this restaurant if you are planning a trip to

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Speaker 1: disney Land. Its despite the fact that it opened ten

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Speaker 1: years ago. The deck or feature's giant plates separating the tables,

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Speaker 1: champagne corks as stools and everything to make you feel

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Speaker 1: like that you are very small rat sized, some might suggest.

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Speaker 1: In the world of Ratatoy, the food classically French and

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Speaker 1: definitely a step above your traditional theme park restaurant. I'll

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Speaker 1: let you read Helen's Peace to find out what she

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Speaker 1: made of the food. I actually in this restaurant ten

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Speaker 1: years ago. I remember find out the whole experience very charming,

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Speaker 1: but it's interesting that it still has such a draw

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Speaker 1: so many years later, and given the it's you know,

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Speaker 1: a decent nearly twenty years since the film was first

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Speaker 1: released as well, people still flocking to the Ratitude themed restaurants.

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Speaker 1: It's very hard to get into in Disneyland Paris. You

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Speaker 1: can read more on that on bloomberg dot com and

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Speaker 1: on the terminal that's bringing more details now, though, of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's analysis of who will pay the brunt of employers

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Speaker 1: national insurance hikes that were announced in October's budget, our

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Speaker 1: UK business owner Jillian Harris joins us for more. Jullian just,

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Speaker 1: first of all, how much more will employers have to

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Speaker 1: pay under these hikes.

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Speaker 8: It really depends on the structure of your company. The

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Speaker 8: measures are really bad for any business that has a

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Speaker 8: lot of part time staff, and typically if those staff

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Speaker 8: are on minimum wage, which they often are, then that

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Speaker 8: can have a really big hit. Because what Labour's done

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Speaker 8: is it's increased the rate of this tax, so that's

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Speaker 8: gone up from thirteen point eight percent to fifteen percent,

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Speaker 8: but it's also dropped the threshold at which it starts

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Speaker 8: to being plaid. So previously you didn't pay any an

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Speaker 8: contribution on someone unless they earned at least nine one

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Speaker 8: hundred pounds a year. That's come down to five thousands,

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Speaker 8: so a lot of businesses have If you have it,

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Speaker 8: if you have a large amount of part time staff

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Speaker 8: who are earning say seven K eight K year, you're

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Speaker 8: now really getting hammered because it is you're now then

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Speaker 8: introduced into this tax that you weren't even paying previously.

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Speaker 1: Now, in announcing this, Kase Daimer had said that the

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Speaker 1: tax hikes would target those with the broadest shoulders. What

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Speaker 1: has this analysis found out about who's going to be

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Speaker 1: paying the bill?

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Speaker 8: I mean, some of the companies do have broad shoulders,

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Speaker 8: will be honest, Tesco Sainsbury's, M and S. These are

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Speaker 8: these are very very big retailers in the UK. We

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Speaker 8: see they're they're part of the foot set themselves and

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Speaker 8: their individual bills, they're some of the highest payers. They've

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Speaker 8: come out they're going to be paying over one hundred

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Speaker 8: million pounds extra each per year. But there what we

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Speaker 8: found is, of course, you know, that's not the that's

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Speaker 8: not the limit of big business in the UK at all.

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Speaker 8: We've got the huge banks, we've got a vast number

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Speaker 8: of foot sea companies, huge miners who are getting off

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Speaker 8: relatively lightly because they they don't fall into the category

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Speaker 8: of companies that are severely affected by this. They don't

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Speaker 8: have a large number of staff in the UK often

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Speaker 8: of course some of the banks do, but they don't

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Speaker 8: have this sort of mass of part time minimum wage staff.

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Speaker 8: So across the foot seat as a whole, and this

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Speaker 8: is the top line finding that we made is that

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Speaker 8: if you take out the dozen retailers from the foot seed,

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Speaker 8: you just look at the other eighty eight foot sea companies,

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Speaker 8: they will in total be playing less than three percent

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Speaker 8: of this total tax hit.

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Speaker 1: Because the goal of this tax rise had been to

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Speaker 1: avoid working people paying more, but is that going to

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Speaker 1: be the case ultimately.

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Speaker 8: I mean, it's really a classic situation, isn't it. We've

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Speaker 8: got you know, economists talk about the incidents of tax

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Speaker 8: and where a tax actually falls, and of course in

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Speaker 8: politics we never really get to that point. Politicians still

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Speaker 8: really say, you know, we're taxing businesses, we're not taxing individuals.

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Speaker 8: But it's clear from this that there will be knock

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Speaker 8: on effects. So even the OPR, the government's own fiscal watchdog,

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Speaker 8: said that wages will be affected by this, and they

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Speaker 8: added that into their calculations. We don't really know to

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Speaker 8: what extent prices are going to increase because of this.

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Speaker 8: A lot of retailers have said, look, we don't have

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Speaker 8: any choice but to increase prices. Now you've put our

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Speaker 8: taxes up, we've put minimum wage up, there are workers'

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Speaker 8: rights laws coming in. We are going to have to increase,

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Speaker 8: increase prices. And I think it's likely there will be

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Speaker 8: some some effect on prices as well, but certainly this

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Speaker 8: starts to weigh down on salaries also.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Julian Harris, Oh kay, business, thank you very much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. The details of that story. Now, the

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Speaker 1: pharmaceutical giant Nova Noordisk because supercharged the Danish economy with

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Speaker 1: the success of its weight glass and diabetes drugs a

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Speaker 1: Zempic and d Wigavy. But other businesses in Denmark are

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Speaker 1: now complaining that Novo's success has left them struggling to

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Speaker 1: hire staff. Our Copenhagen reporter Sanavas joins us Now for

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Speaker 1: more on this story. Sana Nova Noordisk is the number

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Speaker 1: one driver of GDP and job growth in Denmark. Why

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Speaker 1: are people complaining.

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Speaker 4: That is a good question.

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Speaker 9: What is there to complain about? I mean, Danish economy

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Speaker 9: is doing well. Employment is at record high thanks to

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Speaker 9: Novan Nordisk, and of course that is good news for

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Speaker 9: Denmark overall. But it's just not everyone who's feeling those benefits.

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Speaker 9: I mean, Denmark is a small country. We're about six

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Speaker 9: million people, and Novo at the moment is on such

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Speaker 9: a harring binge that it's vacuuming the labor market for

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Speaker 9: everything it can.

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Speaker 4: Get and now is a to attract a lot.

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Speaker 9: It offers attractive salaries, good benefits, it's a place people

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Speaker 9: want to go to work.

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Speaker 4: But it means for other companies, and.

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Speaker 9: Especially those that are present in regions where normal is

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Speaker 9: expanding and and now also in all of us the

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Speaker 9: where it's moving to a completely new location.

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Speaker 4: Many of these companies are struggling.

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Speaker 9: They're losing a lot of staff to normal and not

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Speaker 9: only are they losing staff, but they also they also

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Speaker 9: don't have anyone left to recruit.

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Speaker 4: So Noble's hiring spree.

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Speaker 9: I mean, it's been going on for a couple of

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Speaker 9: years in Denmark now, but it's now small businesses especially

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Speaker 9: are really feeling feeling the pain.

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Speaker 1: So what are the consequences then for these businesses and

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Speaker 1: for the Danish economy more broadly of not being able

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Speaker 1: to find staff.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well it means that some companies.

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Speaker 9: They just cannot grow as they would have wanted to

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Speaker 9: or otherwise could have. They have to turn down orders.

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Speaker 9: We're hearing of companies that have to delay building product

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Speaker 9: because the construction companies don't have enough stuff. I spoke

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Speaker 9: to one company that decided to move production abroad it

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Speaker 9: was simply just easier that way.

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Speaker 4: And another and an owner for car service.

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Speaker 9: Shop decided to close down because he was just exhausted

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Speaker 9: from having to look for staff all the time. He

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Speaker 9: was located about half a mile from Norbourne Callumball, So

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Speaker 9: that was clearly not to his benefit. So we're starting

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Speaker 9: to see the consequence really of this labor starvation, if

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Speaker 9: you like, and for the Danish economy as a whole, well,

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Speaker 9: it means that growth is now increasingly centered around this

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Speaker 9: one company and now also at the expense of others,

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Speaker 9: and obviously that creates some sort of concentration risks that

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Speaker 9: could become a problem for Denmark.

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Speaker 4: Down the road.

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Speaker 1: So what sort of solutions are the government and local

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Speaker 1: authorities looking at to try to solve this problem.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, I say the number one solution that both government

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Speaker 9: also local means palties are exploring that is getting more

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Speaker 9: international labor to Denmark to fill these roles and this gap,

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Speaker 9: and that has already happened to some extent. To some extent,

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Speaker 9: we've seen easing our restrictions for foreign workers and tax incentives,

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Speaker 9: creating international schools, more international degrees. But it's also a

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Speaker 9: bit of a controversial approach in Denmark because across the

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Speaker 9: political spectrum and also in the Danish population, there are

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Speaker 9: many people who don't want more immigrants to Denmark. Denmark

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Speaker 9: already has one of the strictest immigration policies in Europe

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Speaker 9: for that reason, and changing that approach is just not

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Speaker 9: something that all Danes welcome. So it's limited how much

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Speaker 9: Denmark can really open its borders, and in the meantime,

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Speaker 9: businesses they're just left to find new ways to track staff.

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Speaker 9: Some are engaging with their employees on pay and benefits

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Speaker 9: to counter normal offers, but sadly we're probably to hear

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Speaker 9: more stories of struggling businesses as normal continues to grow.

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